Barel Karsan - Value Investing

If I recall correctly, in the summer, but don'...

noreply@blogger.com (Saj Karsan) — Thu, 09 May 2024 23:58:28 +0000

If I recall correctly, in the summer, but don't quote me on that.

Any idea when settlement will be dispersed to shar...

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Wed, 08 May 2024 05:07:17 +0000

Any idea when settlement will be dispersed to shareholders?

A relatively recent literature review and assessme...

noreply@blogger.com (KJP) — Sun, 14 Apr 2024 19:46:09 +0000

A relatively recent literature review and assessment of the implications of LDL that may interest you is Diamond, et al., Statin Therapy Is Not Warranted For A Person With High LDL-Cholesterol On A Low-Carbohydrate Diet, Curr. Op. In Endocrinology, Diabetes and Obesity, Vol. 29 (2022). It includes, among other things, a discussion of the apparent heterogeneity of LDL particles (some more atherogenic than others) and citations to studies suggesting other biomarkers besides simple LDL that appear to have more predictive power.

I had a heart attack in 2017 and based on all the ...

noreply@blogger.com (jjv) — Sun, 14 Apr 2024 16:53:14 +0000

I had a heart attack in 2017 and based on all the negative things about statins, I chose not to take a statin. I started eating low carb and lost a bunch of weight. My cholesterol is high, but it is the "large fluffy" kind (i.e. low particle count). Earlier this year, I had another heart attack and the doctor said I had a bunch of blockage and he inserted 6 stents and again prescribed statins. I'm really at a loss now as to whether statins will solve my problem - for now I am taking the statins.

Awesome! Congrats Saj!

noreply@blogger.com (Jaap) — Sat, 13 Apr 2024 15:28:10 +0000

Awesome! Congrats Saj!

I agree fully with your analysis of this study. Th...

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Sat, 13 Apr 2024 13:34:08 +0000

I agree fully with your analysis of this study. The endpoint reduction is so minor. I don't see how the authors of the study think it supports their position, in any way. The one thing that worries me most about statins is the increased risk of diabetes (10% chance) from taking them, forget about the joint and muscle pains they may cause. As I mentioned before, get your coronary calcium Agatston score to help you decide.

“ A higher percentage of patients who were in the ...

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Fri, 12 Apr 2024 18:51:53 +0000

“ A higher percentage of patients who were in the treatment group died versus the control group (15.4% vs 15.3%)! This is worth emphasizing, because all of this effort is about prolonging life, and this treatment did not do that”. Did it mention how many members in each group suffered a heart attack?

Thanks, Anon. I'm on a waitlist for one (BC). ...

noreply@blogger.com (Saj Karsan) — Thu, 04 Apr 2024 23:15:10 +0000

Thanks, Anon. I'm on a waitlist for one (BC). My cardiologist feels that such a scan can be clean and can change quickly though, so even though I requested the test because I felt it would be helpful, he doesn't put much stock in it for my particular case.

Interestingly, I read an article yesterday about how these scans are late indicators (https://peterattiamd.com/heart-disease-begin-tell-us-prevention/). Nevertheless, from what I've gathered so far (and this changes all the time as I continue to learn more about this topic), the scan results are still more useful than simple LDL-C measures.

I was also told I need to be on statins due to hig...

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Thu, 04 Apr 2024 21:19:52 +0000

I was also told I need to be on statins due to high LDL and Total Cholesterol. Luckily my lipid specialist(Ontario) suggested a coronary calcium score test. Takes minutes and is a non-invasive CT scan of the coronary arteries. If your score is zero (mine was) then the research is clear that your 10 year risk of a coronary event is low. The specialist was then Ok with me not taking a statin, and doing a coronary calcium score test in 8 years. Even in the US this test is not done routinely even though it costs under $200.

Hi Amit, Yeah things have changed a little bit. F...

noreply@blogger.com (Saj Karsan) — Thu, 28 Mar 2024 17:45:43 +0000

Hi Amit,

Yeah things have changed a little bit. For one thing, Twitter has emerged as a simpler medium to communicate with people about stocks. But also, I don't share as much as I used to, as the funds under my control have grown substantially. Whereas I used to be able to quickly build a full position in a small-cap and then talk about it freely, nowadays it takes me months or years to build positions and so talking about it would hurt my returns.

Long time follower. I haven't checked this bl...

noreply@blogger.com (Amit) — Mon, 11 Mar 2024 10:28:18 +0000

Long time follower.

I haven't checked this blog in a while. Did you convert this into a book review website mixed with the quarterly results?

Miss the good old days of kicking the tires on some sweet old cigar butts.

Hi Tom, I just don't trust the underwriting ri...

noreply@blogger.com (Saj Karsan) — Thu, 20 Oct 2022 23:30:01 +0000

Hi Tom, I just don't trust the underwriting right now.

Despite the drop, there have been a few interestin...

noreply@blogger.com (Tom Evans) — Thu, 13 Oct 2022 19:56:52 +0000

Despite the drop, there have been a few interesting developments for this company. The main one being selling the E&S (i.e. profitable) parts of the business. Including the $60m from this sale, tangible equity sits at $155m while market value is appriximately $20m.

Tempted to get back in?

There some hydrogen plays you can look at $PLUG $F...

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Fri, 10 Jun 2022 02:55:11 +0000

There some hydrogen plays you can look at $PLUG $FCEL
$PLUG is the leader

Hi Amit, Before they appeared on balance sheets a...

noreply@blogger.com (Saj Karsan) — Tue, 24 May 2022 23:25:58 +0000

Hi Amit,

Before they appeared on balance sheets as a result of the accounting rule change, I used to capitalize them manually anyway. It would, for example, disqualify a lot of retailers from my net-net estimates, and rightly so!

Hey Saj, Long time reader. I'm curious if you...

noreply@blogger.com (Amit) — Sat, 21 May 2022 14:40:53 +0000

Hey Saj,

Long time reader. I'm curious if you have a view on ASC842, a 2019 accounting rule change which required companies to record leases on the balance sheet. Specifically interested in your thougths on how it relates to evaluating a margin of safety from an NCAV perspective.

ASC842 drives down NCAV for any company where leases amount to a material percentage of assets because they add the entire lease amount to current and non-current liabilities but only add a right-of-use asset as a non-current asset.

Hope you're well. Congrats on the continued success,
Amit

Hi, 12 years have gone by, valuation roughly doubl...

noreply@blogger.com (Max) — Tue, 11 Jan 2022 16:33:35 +0000

Hi, 12 years have gone by, valuation roughly doubled, considering time horizon and huge GDP advancement during this time frame, its not a huge achievement vs SP 500 index. But what is interesting is that Discount to Net Current Assets is firmly in place. This is probably more to do with poor business dynamics particuarly extremely poor margins and extremely low return on capital. I do not think Mr Market is wrong for over a decade.

Good catch, thanks for that; I edited the post.

noreply@blogger.com (Saj Karsan) — Sat, 08 Jan 2022 22:47:58 +0000

Good catch, thanks for that; I edited the post.

Congrats but wasn’t the S&P up 11% for Q4 2021...

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Sat, 08 Jan 2022 21:20:18 +0000

Congrats but wasn’t the S&P up 11% for Q4 2021?

Saj, I read the book because of your recommendati...

noreply@blogger.com (juan) — Thu, 23 Dec 2021 00:57:35 +0000

Saj,
I read the book because of your recommendation and very much liked it.
Thanks for writing about it!

Hey Saj, do you have any thoughts on this rights o...

noreply@blogger.com (Phil K) — Mon, 13 Dec 2021 17:32:08 +0000

Hey Saj, do you have any thoughts on this rights offering that GDC is doing right now? Seems strange to offer unlimited incremental shares to current holders below the market price (albeit the market price is a moving target considering the liquidity).

Check out New York by the same author.

noreply@blogger.com (Pedro Alves) — Thu, 11 Nov 2021 11:22:42 +0000

Check out New York by the same author.

I predict mediocre returns for the vast majority o...

noreply@blogger.com (Amit) — Wed, 20 Oct 2021 14:32:42 +0000

I predict mediocre returns for the vast majority of stock market investors, myself included, for the next 5-10 years (keeping up with inflation would be a win).

No

noreply@blogger.com (Saj Karsan) — Wed, 13 Oct 2021 21:26:03 +0000

Are the holdings public? Thanks!

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Fri, 08 Oct 2021 18:50:04 +0000

Are the holdings public? Thanks!