I wasn’t ever trying to accomplish anything with this site.  At one point I may have thought I could make some extra money by selling advertising, but I quickly learned that it was hard enough just earning enough to cover hosting costs.  At one point I may have hoped the site would lead to bigger and better things, but I’m neither sabermetrician nor scout and I have zero interest in pursuing anything in traditional journalism, so I’m not sure there is anything out there for me.  Overall, I just wanted to make a website that Mariner fans would enjoy, and I think I’ve done pretty well over the past two years.

Over the past few months I’ve been contemplating the future of this site.  The conclusion I’ve come to is that this is not something I wish to keep up on my own long term.  Frankly, the experience has gone a little stale.  It takes a lot of time simply keeping up with everything going on in the Mariner universe, let alone coming up with post ideas and taking the time to write.  My life has changed a lot over the past couple of years and free time is not as abundant as it was when I started this.

I’m moving on.  Thanks for reading and offering your input over the past couple of seasons.  I’ve truly appreciated it.

Now, if there are any writers out there who would like to continue this site get in contact with me and we’ll see if we can work something out.  Maybe I’d even stick around in a part time role.  But, until then, take care.

This shouldn’t be newsworthy considering Josh Wilson is a journeyman infielder who isn’t very good, but there have been enough fans out there who have made it clear that they prefer him to Jack Wilson and let his baby face convince them that he’s a prospect with promise that I figured I should mention it in hopes of ending the madness.

He’s not a member of the Seattle Mariners organization right now, so let’s move on.

The rumor: “The Cardinals, Dodgers, Mets and Mariners are among the teams that have expressed preliminary interest in free-agent right-hander John Smoltz, according to a major-league source.”

“Preliminary interest” doesn’t mean much, and it’s hard to believe a the 43 year old future Hall of Famer is eager to play for an American League team way out west who finished in 3rd place last season, so…

Smoltz doesn’t offer the upside of a Rich Harden but he is probably better than anyone else currently in the Mariner rotation not dubbed el Rey.  The ugly Boston numbers scared some people, but last season Smoltz was basically the same guy he’s been since returning to the rotation in 2005, with the exception of a few fewer grounders and more fly balls.

I’d be alright with Seattle picking him up on a deal similar to the one Boston signed him to last offseason (1/$5.5M), but am not holding my breath.

Jack Cust

The rumor: “The cost of acquiring Cust, who has played 215 games in the outfield and 234 games at DH in his career, should be low — perhaps a Single-A prospect. Seattle may be the most likely destination, which would reunite Cust with Don Wakamatsu, the Mariners’ manager, who previously worked as Oakland’s bench coach.”

Cust could likely be had in a trade for very little or picked up as a free agent if Oakland non-tenders him.  Since his breakout season with the A’s in 2007 Cust has been swinging more and more, walking less and less and has seen fewer of his fly balls turn into home runs.  That isn’t to say his raw power has diminished at age 30, as his average home run distance in 2009 was actually higher than it has been the past two seasons with Oakland.

Cust is still more selective than many hitters, but if he could get back to previous levels you have to think he’d be able to get back to being a productive power hitter again.  That said, Cust may not be the greatest fit for Seattle.  For one, he is without a defensive position.  He’d (hopefully) be a strict DH after producing an ugly -20.4 UZR/150 throughout his career as an outfielder.  Cust hasn’t played but a few innings in the minor leagues at 1B.  Beyond the lack of versatility, Cust could be suppressed by Safeco Field despite being a lefty.  Cust’s home run spray charts look very similar to Russell Branyan’s in that he avoids the lines and hits them out to all fields, but he just doesn’t hit them as far.  Branyan’s average 2009 homer averaged a whopping 415 feet, while Cust average just 403 feet.  Cust would see a ton of homers die in the power alley’s as a Mariner.

The Don Wakamatsu/Ty Van Burkleo connection could increase Cust’s chances of landing in Seattle, but I doubt he’ll be a priority for Seattle.  He’s probably a guy they’ll keep on the backburner in case things fall through with their primary targets.

Nick Johnson

The rumor: “Add free agent Nick Johnson to the list of first basemen drawing interest from the Mariners.”

The darling of the Mariner blogosphere saberists, I’m sure there are many fans out there rejoicing just at the sight of seeing Johnson’s name connected to Seattle.  I like Johnson too, but I don’t exactly see him as the Second Coming.

Johnson you should know by now.  He hits for a decent average, draws a ton of walks, power has slowly gone the way of the buffalo, plays passing defense and he’s hit the disabled list in every single season except for 20o2.  At 31 years old, he’s a guy most teams would want and is arguably the 1B cream of the 2009-2010 free agent crop, but is as risky as they come.  I’d enjoy having Johnson, but I wonder if Carlos Delgado might be a better value while coming up with similar production.  Both are risky.

The entire beat (Shannon Drayer, Geoff Baker, Larry LaRue) is reporting that the Seattle Mariners are going to take a look at Dustin Ackley, a high school shortstop, as a second baseman.  This was a popular idea among some fans after Ackley’s college coach suggested in an interview that Ackley could probably handle the position, but it was never something I gave a lot of thought to.  After all, why risk slowing down a guy that is reportedly so close to the big leagues?

Dave has commented on the “why” over at USS Mariner and Jeff has run through some pros and cons over at Lookout Landing, so check those posts out.

I don’t think this has much to do with Ackley’s outfield defense.  Range-wise, he seems to be at very least adequate in center field but possibly plus, although is arm is below average.  This move has more to do with versatility.

I’ll caution that you probably shouldn’t get too excited about this right now.  As far as I can tell, they’re going to play him there in the instructional league to see how he looks, but I don’t think they’ll hesitate to pull the plug if it doesn’t look like a quick transition for him.  But early reports say Ackley looks good at the new position, so he may have some options.  If he’s good at second I don’t think he becomes a second baseman, however.  He’ll be a CF/LF/2B, taking whichever position is available when he’s big league ready.

Jack Z sure does love versatile players…

Six players added to 40-man roster

OF Ezequiel Carrera, RHRP Anthony Varvaro, RHSP Dan Cortes, LHRP Edward Paredes, RHSP JC Ramirez, RHRP Ricky Orta have been added to the 40-man roster.  I pegged Carrera, Varvaro, Ramirez and Orta in my original November 20th preview piece, and conceded Cortes and Paredes in my rebuttle to Jay Yencich’s preview post, where he left out Ramirez.  We got them right between us!

I don’t have much to add that wasn’t already said in those linked posts.  I take it that Michael Pineda isn’t eligible, which isn’t much of a surprise. The situation was a little confusing.

RHRP Sean White and LHP Ryan Feierabend were also transfered from the 60-day DL to the 40-man roster, and INF Josh Wilson was removed from the 40-man roster and outrighted to AAA Tacoma.

Three 40-man roster spots remain, which makes the decision to waive RHPs Chris Jakubauskas and Robert Manual all that more curious.  Something imminent?

Two more roster spots for Seattle to fill…

UPDATE: This Jakubauskas quote from Geoff Baker is kind of fun:

“It’s kind of bittersweet news,” Jakubauskas told me, adding that he was blindsided by the move. “The Mariners called me today and told me what they’d done and my first thought was ‘Wow, I hope I get claimed.’ Then the next thing they told me was that I’d been claimed by the Pirates.”

Translation: I was hoping I’d get claimed, but then I found out it was the Pirates that claimed me, so it’s bittersweet.

It’s safe to say that Detroit and Seattle are talking, but odds are that Tampa Bay is just one of many teams Seattle and Detroit are talking with.

I thought this could be a fun opportunity to give you all the floor for some armchair GMing and rosterbation madness.  I’m not going to say much more, but consider a few possibilities:

Detroit and Tampa Bay are both said to be looking to save some money.  You’ve got Jackson presumably heading to Seattle and Morrow presumably heading to Detroit.  Tampa Bay could move Carl Crawford to Seattle, replacing him with a guy that isn’t as good but is half the price and under contract for a while in Curtis Granderson.  Both Seattle and Tampa Bay have young outfielders Detroit would be interested in to help replace Granderson in Michael Saunders and Fernando Perez, (late edit to add:) although they do have Casper Wells.  Both the Rays and Tigers need relief pitching, and Seattle has late inning relievers to burn.  The Tigers look like they could use a shortstop, so maybe they’d want Reid Brignac.  Jose Lopez could appeal to Detroit as Scott Sizemore (rookie) and Brandon Inge (bad knees, inconsistent performance) insurance.  I love Sizemore as a fit for Seattle.  Willy Aybar is a guy that could fit in either Detroit or Seattle.

There are unlimited possibilities even beyond the players listed above.  You could even pull the outfielders out of the deal and put in Carlos Pena and Miguel Cabrera if you want to go another direction.  And no, offering Carlos Silva for Magglio Ordonez is probably not such a good idea for Seattle.

Have fun with it.  Play all three GMs, and remember that this needs to be as close to a win-win-win as possible.  I’ll moderate and offer some suggestions.

Yencich’s candidates include OF Ezequiel Carrera, RHP Dan Cortes, RHP Ricky Orta, LHP Edward Paredes, OF Carlos Peguero, C Travis Scott and RHP Anthony Varvaro.  He adds that he thinks the first five names (Carrera through Peguero) have the best chance of being added.

There was obviously some overlap on our lists as I also pegged Carrera, Varvaro and Orta as strong candidates to be added.  Let’s talk about the discrepancies.

Cortes was simply a miss by me.  I forgot to check out his situation, probably because he wasn’t part of the 2009 Seattle Mariners media guide that I was using as my primary reference.  He is definitely a guy worth protecting as some team– especially a rebuilding team– could get by stashing him in the bullpen for a season before allowing him to continue his development the next season a la the Twins and Johan Santana.

Paredes is a guy that I had on my original draft, but decided to cut him at the last minute for whatever reason.  He’s somewhat comparable to Jose Lugo, one of Seattle’s 2009 Rule 5 picks.  Paredes doesn’t have much high-minors experience but he throws left handed and can get lefties out, which is enough to give him a good shot at a big league career as a LOOGY.  You may recall that Lugo was one of the last cuts for the Mariners last spring, and I can see Paredes finding himself in a similar situation if he goes unprotected.  He’s worth adding if there’s room, but I’d have a hard time keeping him over any the right handed relievers that appeared on both lists.

Cortes and Paredes I can concede– good calls by Yencich.  I disagree with the inclusions of Peguero and Scott (though they were also on my original draft).

Considering Yencich’s own description of Peguero, I can’t imagine why he’d get any consideration.  Lefty power to go along with tons of strikeouts and very few walks.  He’s repeated the California League but his 2009 home/away splits show that he still hasn’t figured the league out.  Yencich is also, in my opinion, very generous with his defensive appraisal.  Most scouting reports that I can recall list him as a future DH or 1B rather than an OF.  I haven’t seen him play defense, but he is big and slow in the batting video I’ve seen of him and I can’t imagine he’d be able to hold his own out there in today’s game.  But whether or not Peguero has a future in the big leagues is beside the point.  Who is going to take this guy and keep them on their active roster for an entire season?  He brings zero value to big league teams.  He can’t hit, he can’t pinch run, he can’t be considered a late inning defensive substitution– what do big league teams do with this guy?  I don’t see him going anywhere.  Maybe he’s picked, but he’d almost certainly be returned.

Scott is another guy that I have a hard time seeing get picked, though I did give him some thought.  He had some intriguing numbers in High Desert this past season, but he’ll be 25 next season, has played at the level for three years now and has dealt with some health problems.  Is there a team out there willing to give a backup catcher position to someone who has yet to step foot on a AA field?  It’s not quite like giving the 4th outfielder spot or long reliever position to someone, the backup catcher is going to be starting on a semi regular basis.  I can’t see any team giving Scott that job next season.  Last year there were two catchers taken in the Rule 5.  Neither Lou Palmisano nor James Skelton made their new clubs.  Palmisano was offered back, the offer was declined, was assigned to the minors, declined the assignment and became a free agent. A trade was worked out to keep Skelton with his new team in the minor leagues.  Also, for what it’s worth, Prospect Insider’s Jason Churchill recently opined that Scott’s “absolute ceiling is as an emergency guy.”

Now for the players I had but Yencich didn’t include.  I included Michael Pineda and JC Ramirez in my list.  These two players were mentioned (along with Alex Liddi) in Yencich’s intro as players who signed “contracts in ’05, but for the ’06 season.”  No, they didn’t play in 2005, but my understanding was that it didn’t matter.  Cot’s Baseball Contract’s transaction glossary, which isn’t official by any means but is typically pretty reliable, states:

After 4 or 5 years as a professional, a player must be added to his club’s 40-man roster or exposed to the 29 other clubs in the Rule 5 draft. (A club has 5 years to evaluate a player who signs his first pro contract at 18 years old or younger, but only 4 years to decide on a player who signs at age 19.) For purposes of calculating years as a pro, the counting begins the day a player signs his first pro contract, not the season he begins to play.

Pineda is an odd case because he signed in December, but Ramirez signed on July 2nd.  I think he’s eligible, but we’ll find out soon enough.

Ian Snell and Brandon Morrow both have great stuff and one of them could fill the second slot in the rotation if everything started coming together, but until they show some consistency they’re back of the rotation arms.  Ryan Rowland-Smith is a rock solid #4, or perhaps a 3/4 tweener.  Anyone else on the books is a #5 at best.

If Seattle could bring in a 1a or 2 it would really help set up the rotation.

I’ve spent far too many words exploring the possibility of John Lackey already, so there is really no need to discuss him further at this point.  Let’s move on to the market’s next most eligible bachelor.

Rich Harden, RH

Harden is kind of like the Nick Johnson of pitching in that he’s hit the DL at least once every single season except for one.  That is, if Nick Johnson was a superstar rather than merely a very good player.

Harden is a very intriguing pitcher these days.  He’s ditched his once famed splitter and other breaking pitches in an attempt to stay healthy, but is still dominating with a fastball/changeup combo that he throws at a 60/40 split .  Of pitchers with at least 140 IP, Harden led all of baseball with 10.91 K/9.  The only major change in Harden’s profile is that he’s gone from being a groundball pitcher to one of the flyball variety.  That would help explain his uninspiring 4.09 ERA, as the Chicago Cubs ran out the worst outfield defense in the National League by UZR.

I’ve been told that Harden doesn’t wish to return to the Cubs because of that atrocious outfield defense (although recent reports say otherwise).  I’ve also been told that Harden grew up a Mariners fan.  I’m not going to take the time to Google a verification for either, but both make some sense.  Harden is a sabermetrically savvy guy and also has two eyeballs, so he has to know how bad the Cubs outfield defense was.  I certainly wouldn’t want to pitch in front of them.  Harden is also a NW guy so it would make some sense that he’s a Mariner fan.  If he wants to play for his hometown team and in front of a great outfield defense, Seattle is the place for him.  Pair that with several reports stating mutual interest and it seems that there is a good chance Harden is a Mariner in 2010.

As a Mariner, Harden would basically be 2009 Erik Bedard but with (hopefully) more starts.  He’ll be great when he’s on the hill, but don’t expect him to go deep into ballgames and expect some rotation shuffling from time to time in order to keep him feeling good.

So how much does a guy who is only good for 25 starts per year (at most) command?  I haven’t seen any estimates lately, but I would guess that a 1-2 year deal at around $7-9M per is reasonable, with option years and incentives packages possible.  Even that may seem like a lot to guarantee to a guy that is a virtual lock to spend some time on the DL, but if he can get you even 20 starts he’ll likely be worth it.

I’ve always been a huge Rich Harden fan and would be very excited to see him land with Seattle.  Harden is only 27 year old, by the way.

It’s easy to get caught up in the rumors.  MLB Trade Rumors has become one of the most successful baseball blogs on the internet and has a loyal following of crazed armchair GMs.  When the site was first gaining momentum I was definitely among those people, but it’s important to take the rumors for what they are.  The Meriam-Webster definition of rumor includes words and phrases such as “opinion,” “no discerable source” and “without known authority of for its truth.” They’re not to be relied upon.  Information can get misinterpreted in an elaborate game of telephone, and others purposely inject false information into the reports in hopes of furthering their own cause.  Whenever SI’s Jon Heyman theorizes about how many teams are interested in a Scott Boras client or how much they could get paid in free agency, chances are Boras fed him that information directly in hopes of getting GMs across the country bidding against themselves (Heyman has a long history of working with/for Boras).  There is a memorable anecdote from Moneyball in which Billy Beane feeds ESPN’s Peter Gammons false information in order to help him complete a trade.

I don’t get riled up by the rumors anymore, but I do acknowledge them, and I think they have some value.  If something keeps coming up from various sources then it may be worth paying attention to.  The way things are specifically worded can give you clues as to how real something is as well.

Enter John Lackey.  Larry LaRue posted today that “Lackey simply isn’t on [the Mariners'] radar, and they certainly aren’t on his.”  I don’t really trust LaRue as he tends to do his reporting based on what he would like the team to do, but even if he thinks Seattle’s resources should be spent elsewhere, I can’t imagine how he can state Seattle’s disinterest so plainly.  This is LaRue versus many other reputable reporters who are using words just as cut and dry.

Based on these reports as well as some of the stuff I have heard from people in the know in private conversations I am led to believe that GM Jack Zduriencik is doing more than the obligatory kicking of the tires.  I believe he is very serious about dishing out some big money and stealing the rival LA Angels’ ace.

How much will Lackey get paid?

As mentioned in the previous post, the numbers being thrown around are all over the place.  There have been multiple writers suggesting he could be looking at a $100M+ payday as recently as today, which I think is very unlikely given his injury history.  A.J. Burnett money (5 years and $80M) is a lot to commit to Lackey from any non-Yankee team, let alone 7 years and $100M+.

In the last post I wrote that I expected Lackey to get something between 4 years/$50M and 5 years/$80M, which is much lower than most reporters and analysts.  Odds are, I’m probably shooting too low.  After all,  it only takes one team to decide they want Lackey no matter what for him to end up with $80M+ guaranteed, or even $100M+.  But there aren’t many teams that have the luxury of dumping unlimited resources into the pursuit of one pitcher.  Neither the Seattle Mariners nor Milwaukee Brewers are that team.  The New York Mets have a big payroll but are already scheduled to pay huge sums of money to Carlos Beltran, Oliver Perez, Johan Santana, David Wright and Jose Reyes.  They’re thought to only have about $40M to spend this offseason, which doesn’t go very far for a team that has holes in the infield, outfield, rotation and bullpen.  The Red Sox really have no reason to go after Lackey with Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Diasuke Matsuzaka in tow.  The Yankees are, in my opinion, the only team that are likely jump in and make the writers predicting a historic payday for Lackey look smart.  Otherwise, I don’t see the bidding war getting out of hand.  There are some great buy-low arms on the market this offseason that teams should see as a nice consolation prize.

So, let me clarify my thinking.  4 years/~$55M is my low number with 5 years/~$85M being my high.  I have a hard time seeing a team offer up a 6th or 7th year, which is what it would take to get the total amount over $100M.  I’ll be extremely (but not completely) surprised if he becomes the 6th pitcher in MLB history to get $100M, even in this starting pitching weak free agent market.  5 years/$70-75M has been my prediction for most of the offseason, but it takes so little to knock those numbers down and (especially) up that I’m not sure there is any point in making predictions anyway.

I’ve heard that Seattle is willing to go 5/$70M for Lackey, which may or may not be enough.  If it takes any more than that I think most of us can agree that Seattle shouldn’t be pursuing him anyway.  Which leads me to…

Do I want Seattle to break the bank for Lackey?

I’ve spent enough words expressing my feelings that Seattle is going to be more aggressive with Lackey than most of the blogosphere will admit that I think some may be putting me in the pro-Lackey camp, but I’m really not.  At least, not at the higher figures.  At the unrealistic but plausible low projections, sure; but any higher and my interest wanes.  Long, expensive contracts to starting pitchers come back to bite teams in the butt more often than not (or so it seems), so I’m not eager to see my team use up a high percentage of their resources on a staff ace when they already have one.  Rich Harden seems like a legit possibility and a great way to beef up the rotation without risking too much, and opportunities in the trade market could show themselves as well.

RHP: Steve Bray (AAA), Chad Cordero+ (SS), Mario DeJesus (DSL), Jesus Delgado (AAA), Josh Hall+ (AAA), Eric Hull (AA), Mike Koplove (AAA), Randy Messenger (AAA), Luis Munoz (AA), Joey Newby (AA), Steven Shell (AAA), Jared Wells (AAA), Juan Zapata (Hi A), Jeff Zimmerman+ (AAA)
LHP: Danny Christensen (AA), Chris Seddon (AAA), Luis Villarreal (AA)
C: Fleming Baez (AA), Colt Morton+ (AA), Jose Yepez (AA)
1B: Gerardo Avila (SS), Ian Bladergroen (Lo A), Brad Nelson (AAA)
2B: Callix Crabbe (AAA)
SS: Alex Cintron (AAA), Oswaldo Navarro (AAA)
OF: David Espinosa (AA), Bryan LaHair (AAA), Mark McGonigle (R), Jerry Owens (AAA), Prentice Redman (AAA), Mel Stocker (AA)

I’d expect Seattle to try and re-sign several relievers.

Why quick thoughts?  Because I’ve been trying to write this post for the better part of a week but kept going off on tangents regarding market trends all kinds of other things.  I figured it would be better to keep it short and sweet and let you guys discuss.  Have at it!

Apparently, Zduriencik wasn’t just going for a buy low.  He’s still bugging the Tigers for Jackson, according to FOX’s Ken Rosenthal and John Paul Morosi:

Count the Mariners among the teams interested in Tigers right-hander Edwin Jackson.

The teams have spoken about Jackson and exchanged names, but the talks “are not all that serious,” according to one source with knowledge of the discussions.

Jackson, 13-9 with a 3.62 ERA last season, would be a strong complement to ace right-hander Felix Hernandez in the Mariners’ rotation.

The Tigers, sources say, are seeking minimum-salary pitching for Jackson, whose salary will rise from $2.2 million in arbitration.

Mariners right-handers Brandon Morrow and Shawn Kelley both fit that description, and are the types of hard throwers favored by Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski.

Jackson’s price tag is obviously much higher now than it was last season, but he can only command so much as he’s only under team control for two more seasons.  And while he posted a shiny 3.62 ERA last season, his season line was aided by a luck driven first half.  He’s no ace, but he would give Seattle more middle of the rotation depth to work with.

What are you willing to give up for Jackson?  To be honest, I’m not sure I’d deal Morrow for him.  Morrow is basically what Jackson was earlier in his career but with the ability to miss twice as many bats (edit: I must have been looking at the wrong columns. Similar swinging strike rates, but edge to Morrow).  I like Jackson, but I’m not sure he’s that much better than Morrow at this point.  Sean White and, as mentioned, Shawn Kelly would interest Detroit, but I doubt that would be enough to get it done.

I could definitely get behind moving Morrow if Detroit was sending more than just Jackson.  The FOX duo continues:

The Mariners, one of the few clubs seemingly in position to add payroll, also like Tigers center fielder Curtis Granderson.

However, they prefer Franklin Gutierrez in center and would move Granderson to left. Teams that want Granderson to play center likely would offer the Tigers better packages.

Adding Granderson to left field could quite possibly give Seattle the best outfield in baseball.  Granderson would be a plus defender in left and would give Seattle a solid #2 or 3 hitter against right handed pitching.

But Granderson is one of the best bargains in baseball as he’s still young and signed to a team friendly deal, so I can’t imagine he’d come cheap.  That said, if the Tigers are as desperate to cut costs as they seem to be they may make a deal that doesn’t quite make sense.  On the other hand, Granderson’s $5.5M 2010 salary should be the least of their worries.

I’ll leave the armchair GMing to you, but a package for Jackson and Granderson centered around Morrow, Michael Saunders and a hard throwing reliever (or two) makes for an intriguing thought.  That would be quite the blockbuster.

• ESPN’s Buster Olney, Saturday: “If I were to set an early handicap on the upcoming Lackey sweepstakes, I’d throw out an educated guess on the rankings, from top to bottom, that looks like this: Mariners, Angels, Brewers, Mets, Red Sox, Yankees. The Mariners have a lot of payroll flexibility and a clear strategy predicated on strong pitching and defense.”
• Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo produces a quote that jives with my We Don’t Know Jack post from a few days ago: “I think they’ve been one of the most aggressive organizations in the early going,’’ said an American League GM. “They aren’t as restricted with their budget like other organizations are, so they have a chance to do some things.’’ Cafardo also expects the Mariners to make serious runs at Jason Bay and Adrian Gonzalez, but I have a hard time seeing either in Seattle colors next season.  I am curious to know what new Padres GM Jed Hoyer would be looking for with regards to Gonzalez, though.  He’d obviously be a great fit.

• On Thursday Larry Stone went through some Seattle Mariners rumors, noting that “the Mariners will look deeply into” John Lackey.  With regards to Rich Harden he writes “this one has legs.”  He discusses about ten other players as well, so check it out.
• Jason Churchill has a hot stove post up today, with the most interesting quote being: “Rich Harden is either really liking the idea of pitching in Seattle, or he’s using the M’s as leverage to get a better deal in LAA, LAD or Boston.”
• He also says the Mariners have no interest in Chone Figgins, and Orlando Hudson has no desire to play in the American League, among other things.  Check it out.
  

No word yet on the money, but I would say we’re looking at something like $10-12M.   Don’t act surprised– we all knew this was coming from the day he was traded to Seattle.  Will update…

Update: Dejan Kovacevis tweets: “Wilson’s deal believed to have total worth of $10 million.”  I guessed 2 years/$10M back on the 30th for whatever that’s worth (not much, but *toot toot).

Update: Kovacevis confirms dollar figure.

Glad that’s out of the way.

Update: Larry Stone has more contract details:

Two years, $10 million guaranteed ($5 million in 2010, $5 million in 2011), plus $250,000 in performance bonuses each year (mostly plate appearances) for a potential $500,000; plus the standard awards package worth a possible $450,000. Again, no option for 2012.

A few quick thoughts:

I’m cool with this deal.  The main point of contention, especially with J.J. Hardy off the table, is that there are similar shortstops on the free agent market that could be had even cheaper than Wilson in Adam Everett, Alex Gonzalez and Omar Vizquel.  Wilson is probably better than all three, but the difference between them has to be pretty small.  “A bird in the hand,” though.  If the Mariners cut Wilson loose and failed to sign a suitable replacement the Mariners could be in trouble.

It’s done, we’re cool.  Now, what about the backup?  Do we really feel comfortable with Jack Hannahan and/or Bill Hall as our backup shortstop (or Josh Wilson, stashed in Tacoma) when our starter has dealt with multiple heel, calf, hamstring and knee injuries over the past year and a half?  Hannahan is probably a capable SS and looked okay in his brief look there in 2009, but he has very little experience at the position and we really don’t know how well he’d do if forced to fill in for an extended period of time.

With that, I wonder if it would be smart to bring in a “true” shortstop to fill out the bench.  Vizquel?  He looked good at 3B and 2B last year too and was a better hitter than Hannahan.  Zduriencik was said to be interested in him last offseason as well.

I’d be fine with Hannahan as well (I love both players, really), but for ~$600K more I wouldn’t mind seeing Omar finish his magical career where he started it.  Just a thought.

Rolen’s offense would take a hit in Safeco, but not terribly.  He’s a line drive guy (12th best LD% in baseball for 2009) who hits from gap to gap.  For the most part, his home run power is to straightaway left field and his shortest home run of the year was 364 feet. All of his homers to left-center were well over 400 feet.  He’d use the gaps well and still be able to get his 10-15 homers playing half his games at Safeco.

Brandon Inge, Detroit Tigers – The Detroit Tigers are also looking to shed payroll and Inge could be one of the casualties.  He’s due a reasonable $6.6M in 2009, though I can’t say I’m much of a fan.  He’s a great defender, which is nice, but his big offensive first half seemed to be more fluke than breakout and his production fell off a cliff in the second half of his age 32 season.  He was hitting .268/.360/.515 with 21 home runs through July 12th while running an extremely high HR/FB ratio and low LD%.  Regression’s a bitch; he hit just .186/.260/.281 with 6 homers in his final 75 games.  That doesn’t look like a guy you’d want.  Oh, and did I mention that he’s known as a whiner and a clubhouse cancer?

Seattle is probably better off going with Matt Tuiasosopo and/or Jack Hannahan at 3B rather than picking up Inge’s walk year.

Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals - The Royals probably aren’t moving Gordon, despite the trade for Josh Fields.  That said, anything can happen and the Royals have made some puzzling moves in the past, so Gordon’s name is worth bringing up.  Gordon has been disappointing after being rushed through the minors and deemed the next George Brett by KC fans, but he hasn’t been a complete disaster and seems poised for a breakout.  He has a good approach at the plate, the raw power is there and he put up solid numbers in 2009 between the Royals and Omaha when healthy.  Given that Gordon is still under team control for four more seasons I don’t think even Dayton Moore would be willing to sell low, but you never know.  I love Gordon and would love to see him break through as a member of the Seattle Mariners.

It’s unclear whether or not Matsui would want to play for Seattle.  There has been some talk over the years that Ichiro and Matsui dislike each other.  If I recall correctly, Matsui even pulled out of the World Baseball Classic when Ichiro joined Japan’s roster.  I haven’t really followed the feud, but a quick Google search yielded some interesting material that suggests their conflict extends all the way back into their teenage years.  Depending on how real it is, discussing Matsui as a Seattle Mariner may be moot.

Some will be quick to dismiss Matsui, even after he posted an .876 OPS last season.  He’s 35, has had all kinds of knee problems and put up his highest home run to flyball ratio (HR/FB) of his career while playing in the Little League park known as New Yankees Stadium.  Those factors make his 2009 season seem like a fluke, but as you dig deeper the numbers paint a different picture.  He had a .275 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), the lowest mark of his career despite having his second best line drive percentage (LD%) of his career.  His power wasn’t just Johnny Damon-esque New Yankee Stadium power either, as his average bomb traveled 395.9 feet and his longest 445 feet.  The low BABIP and high LD% say his batting average should have been higher than the .274 mark he posted, and the power is still there.  It’s also worth noting that while he occasionally hit between some combination of Mark Teixiera, Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada, more often than not he was protected by Nick Swisher, which led to him seeing the fewest pitches in the strike zone of his career.  I wouldn’t be so quick to call 2009 a fluke.

Yes, his numbers would take a hit moving from New Yankee to just about anywhere, but there is still some left in the tank for ol’ Godzilla.  Matsui should command 1-2 years at $7-10M per.  I’ve never been a Matsui fan, but I could get behind him signing with Seattle.  That said, I don’t see him as the best fit for Seattle.  With Ken Griffey occupying a bench spot, Seattle would benefit from getting a DH that could play a defensive position from time to time.  Matsui claims that he can still play the outfield, but in all reality you’re not going to find a DH that can handle left field at Safeco.

But there will be, because chances are one or more of the trio will become trade bait.

GM Jack Zduriencik realizes that bullpens can be effective with cheap no-names and that there are still plenty of teams out there that overvalue relievers or are fooled by deceptive ERA. There is a great chance that Aardsma, Lowe or even White will be in the back end of someone else’s bullpen next spring.

Think about how many relievers Zduriencik brought in last year.  Jesus Delgado, Luis Pena, Eric Hull, David Aardsma, Chad Cordero, Tyler Walker, Aaron Heilman and Tyler Johnson were all brought in from the outside, and those are just the guys I could think of off the top of my head, not to mention all the guys that were already in the organization but weren’t viewed as big league bullpen candidates by most fans.  Sure, of those guys brought in only Aardsma made an impact on the big league club, but that’s no knock on the process.  You can’t fault Zduriencik for having a solid crew to choose from leftover from the Bill Bavasi era.

A fresh new crop of Shawn Kelleys figure to join the fun in Phillippe Aumont, Joshua Fields, Ricky Orta, Anthony Varvaro and probably several others who are not on our collective radars or are currently viewed as starters.  Add to those four waiver claims, minor league free agents, reclamation projects and middling organizational arms and you’ve got one helluva bullpen competition without even talking about the 2009 crew.

If the right deals are out there Zduriencik won’t hesitate to pull the trigger, I can promise you that.  A few teams that may be looking for relief help this winter: New York Mets, Tampa Bay Rays, Philadelphia Phillies, Chicago Cubs, New York Yankees, Cleveland Indians, Detroit Tigers.

It’s just one year worth of moves while the team was handcuffed financially by several large (and mostly bad) contracts as well as a tough economic climate and 100 loss season that slowed ballpark revenue.  Zduriencik was forced to make low profile moves and search for diamonds in the rough because he didn’t have a choice, not necessarily because that’s just his style.  Luckily, he is good at it.  Some seem to see Zduriencik as this guy that wouldn’t know what to do with a large allowance, but I’m sure that couldn’t be farther from the truth.  He wanted to go after some of the big name free agents last offseason (Bobby Abreu and Orlando Hudson are two examples that we know of) but the money just wasn’t there.

Based on the way he went about business last offseason it seems like a lot of fans are looking at the high profile free agents and trade targets and saying they’re not Zduriencik’s type of players without giving any followup reasoning beyond the price tag.   Well, Zduriencik has a lot more money to work with this offseason after having several major contracts expire and he’s going to spend it.  And then he’s going to try and get the payroll expanded so he can keep dealing.  Zduriencik wants to win a World Series in 2010 and sincerely believes he can pull it off.

Zduriencik will still make thrifty moves as they come to him, but he won’t be limiting himself.  Reclamation projects like Rich Harden and Ben Sheets won’t be the only hurlers he’ll be negotiating with.  He’s going to do more than just kick the tires on John Lackey, for example.  I’m lead to believe Lackey’s going to get a legitimate, competitive offer from the Mariners.

This may sound like crazy talk after last offseason but based on what I’ve heard as well as the publicly posted rumors, Zduriencik is going to show a different side this winter.  He’s not messing around.

• There were some rumors going around based on miscalculations that Brandon Morrow was eligible for arbitration as a Super Two.  Luckily, that turned out to be a false alarm.  The Mariners have five other players eligible for arbitration in Felix Hernandez, Franklin Gutierrez, David Aardsma, Mark Lowe and Ryan Langerhans.
• Jon Heyman tweets that the Mariners are among the teams checking in on free agent Mark DeRosa.  File this under “we’re kicking the tires on everyone.”  Most of DeRosa’s power is to left-center, he’s not a good defender, he wasn’t particularly good last season and he’s 35 years old.  No thanks.
• Bob Nightengale tweets that GM Jack Zduriencik says the Mariners’ signing of Ken Griffey doesn’t mean they won’t be looking to sign another DH.  This was implied, but it’s good to know for certain.

I’ll tack on whatever else trickles in this evening…

• Heyman tweets that the Mariners have their eye on John Lackey, but “won’t go to $100M.”  I don’t think Lackey gets $100M anyway.