jonmower.com blogs

What All the Fuss is About

Jonathan — Wed, 10 Mar 2010 04:15:54 +0000

In response to my claim that the government isn't taking over health care, I was recently asked what's all the fuss about, then?

My answer: politics

(most of what follows is h/t Ezra Klein)

As Maggie Mertens recently pointed out (link) and summarized with the table at the end of this post, the current senate health care bill is remarkably similar to the bill proposed in 1993 by a moderate Republican senator (John Chafee), 19 other Republican senators, and 2 Democrats - considered the major GOP proposal at the time. Naturally, therefore, the Republicans are celebrating that the Dems some 17 years later are pushing a GOP health care bill. Not so much.

Instead, here's a sampling of what we get...

We get this from the Republican National Committee (link):

and we get commentary like this by conservative pundit Mark Steyn from the National Review (link):

I’ve been bandying comparisons with Britain and France but that hardly begins to convey the scale of it. Obamacare represents the government annexation of “one-sixth of the U.S. economy” — i.e., the equivalent of the entire British or French economy, or the entire Indian economy twice over. Nobody has ever attempted this level of centralized planning for an advanced society of 300 million people. Even the control freaks of the European Union have never tried to impose a unitary “comprehensive” health-care system from Galway to Greece. The Soviet Union did, of course, and we know how that worked out.

Annexation of 1/6 of the economy? Ezra Klein rebuts (link):

Putting aside the question of whether government regulations are the same as "annexation" (in which case, the apple I'm eating is federally annexed, and I never knew socialism could be this crisp and delicious), the regulations in question are limited to insurance being offered on the exchanges.

Why does that matter? Because the exchanges, as you can see on Page 20 of this CBO analysis, are expected to serve 25 million people by 2019. That is to say, these regulations will be limited to less than 10 percent of the market. And that 10 percent of the market will be primarily composed of the uninsured.

Why would conservatives be freaking out so extravagantly about a health bill nearly identical to their own from 17 years ago? Did the GOP propose a socialist health care bill in 1993? Were they plotting an unprecedented expansion of government, an annexation of 1/6 of the economy? No. Then what is all the fuss about?

The fuss is all about politics (Waterloo).

From Kaiser Health News (link):

Major Provisions	Senate Bill 2009	Sen. Chafee (R) Bill 1993	Rep. Boehner (R) Bill 2009
Require Individuals To Purchase Health Insurance (Includes Religious and/or Hardship Exemption)	Yes	Yes	No (individuals without coverage would be taxed)
Requires Employers To Offer Health Insurance To Employees	Yes (above 50 employees, must help pay for insurance costs to workers receiving tax credits for insurance)	Yes (but no requirement to contribute to premium cost)	No
Standard Benefits Package	Yes	Yes	No
Bans Denying Medical Coverage For Pre-existing Conditions	Yes	Yes	No (establishes high risk pools)
Establish State-based Exchanges/Purchasing Groups	Yes	Yes	No
Offers Subsidies For Low-Income People To Buy Insurance	Yes	Yes	No
Long Term Care Insurance	Yes (sets up a voluntary insurance plan)	Yes (sets standards for insurance)	No
Makes Efforts To Create More Efficient Health Care System	Yes	Yes	Yes
Medicaid Expansion	Yes	No	No
Reduces Growth In Medicare Spending	Yes	Yes	No
Medical Malpractice Reform	No	Yes	Yes
Controls High Cost Health Plans	Yes (taxes on plans over $8,500 for single coverage to $23,000 for family plan)	Yes (caps tax exemption for employer-sponsored plans)	No
Prohibits Insurance Company From Cancelling Coverage	Yes	Yes	Yes
Prohibits Insurers From Setting Lifetime Spending Caps	Yes	No	Yes
Equalize Tax Treatment For Insurance Of Self-Employed	No	Yes	No
Extends Coverage To Dependents	Yes (up to age 26)	No	Yes (up to age 25)
Cost	$871 billion over 10 years	No CBO estimate	$8 billion over 10 years
Impact On Deficit	Reduces by $132 billion over 10 years	No CBO estimate	Reduces by $68 billion over 10 years
Percentage Of Americans Covered	94% by 2019	92-94% by 2005	82% by 2019

Your Great-Grandfather Drew This When He Was Six

Jonathan — Tue, 09 Mar 2010 13:06:08 +0000

Finn drew this last night and said that he wants to put it in a box to give his grandson when he dies so that his grandson can show his son and say "Your great-grandfather drew this when he was six."

Rhapsody Rendezvous 2009

Jonathan — Mon, 08 Mar 2010 13:06:04 +0000

Here are a couple videos from the 2009 edition of Midland High's Rhapsody Rendezvous featuring a friend of ours in these two numbers:

Link to Vimeo (also on YouTube)

Keyboard Fest 2010

Jonathan — Mon, 08 Mar 2010 12:57:57 +0000

Here is video of Elliot participating in Keyboard Fest back in January:

Link to Vimeo (also on YouTube)

From the Tumblelog for February 28 - March 6, 2010

Jonathan — Mon, 08 Mar 2010 04:07:25 +0000

Mar 06

Elliot is Saturday night UNO champ.

Sorry, Bart Stupak -- the feds already subsidize abortion

By Matt Miller Michigan Rep. Bart Stupak (D) threatened Thursday to block health care reform (again) because it might allow federal money to subsidize abortion. Which has Democratic leaders cooking…

Exercise or Not, Sitting at a Desk All Day Is Bad for You [Health]: We've been proponents of standing des... http://bit.ly/cw6jZM

Mar 05

Zero Nutritional Difference Between Campbell's "Healthy" Tomato Soups And Regular, Just Higher Price

A new ABC7 investigation shows Campbell’s “Healthy Request” and “Low Sodium” tomato soups contain the same nutrients and exact same amount of sodium as regular tomato soups, but they cost more….

An authoritative analysis of the Senate health care bill's abortion policy

Given the wide range of dubious claims circulating in the media regarding abortion and health care reform, independent analysis is necessary. Fortunately, a leading expert on health policy and law…

Mar 04

The Senate bill doesn't fund abortions. Here's why Stupak thinks it does.

A central puzzle of the health reform debate is why Rep. Bart Stupak, D-Mich., keeps saying that the Senate-passed bill allows taxpayer dollars to be spent on abortions. The U.S. Conference of…

Obama and Romney say the same thing about health care reform. - By Timothy Noah - Slate Magazine

President Barack Obama just gave a speech. Mitt Romney, his likeliest 2012 challenger, just published a book. The speech was about health care reform. So was a chapter in Romney’s book. As…

Mar 03

The entitlements no one is talking about

Here is an article I just published in The Fiscal Times, prompted in part by Leonard Burman’s work, on the staggering size and automatic growth of “tax expenditures” — tax breaks, for us…

Dear Yann…Love, Barack

My Constituents Care Way More About Political Gamesmanship Than Jobs, Health Care, And The Economy | The Onion - America's Finest News Source

It is my responsibility as an elected official to look out for the people back home, the voters who sent me to Washington. So, after 20 years…

Mar 02

[video] Obama Caught Lip-Syncing Speech

After Obama slips up during an address on health care, White House officials are forced to admit the president occasionally uses a backing track for important speeches.

Mar 01

Newt Gingrich and standards of evidence

Paul Ryan and the true cost of health-care reform

After the Blair House Summit, a bunch of you e-mailed to ask what I thought of Rep. Paul Ryan’s argument that the bill “does not control costs” and it “does not reduce deficits.” There’s a…

Coffee Party activists say their civic brew's a tastier choice than Tea Party's - washingtonpost.com

Furious at the tempest over the Tea Party — the scattershot citizen uprising against big government and wild spending — Annabel Park did what any American does when she feels her voice has been…

Op-Ed Columnist: Learning From the Sin of Sodom

A growing number of conservative Christians are acknowledging that to be “pro-life” must mean more than opposing abortion.

RT @adamellis: Free audiobook: The Cost of Discipleship by Dietrich Bonhoeffer…Coupon Code MAR2010 http://shar.es/mX5ao

RT @ezraklein: Reconciliation has been used many times before. But GOP will set new record for filibusters this year. So which is "unprecedented?"

Mark Erelli's new album, streaming for free: http://bit.ly/aVwQWU

Feb 28

The Swell Season 2010-02-27 Sala Apolo, Barcelona. (16-bit) (FLAC)

California Christian challenges Mount Diablo - Subscriber Only - THE WEEK

A California man has launched a campaign to rename Mount Diablo, insisting that the current name honors the devil. Arthur Mijares said that “to me and millions of other followers of the Christian…

Jealous prison inmates snitch on lovers, and more - Subscriber Only - THE WEEK

A German man was charged with breaking into jail every night for weeks to have sex with his girlfriend. Police say that Daniele Eberhardt, 33, scaled a…

Glacier Bay and the Mendenhall Glacier

Jonathan — Sun, 07 Mar 2010 21:56:17 +0000

Better late than never, here is video of Glacier Bay and the Mendenhall Glacier from our 15th marriage anniversary Alaskan cruise last summer:

Link to Vimeo (also on YouTube)

Basketball Winter 2010

Jonathan — Sun, 07 Mar 2010 19:07:19 +0000

Elliot is nearing the end of 4 on 4 basketball season. Here is video of a recent game and from a game in the 5 on 5 league in January.

Link to Vimeo

Sledding with Grandpa

Jonathan — Sun, 07 Mar 2010 18:48:50 +0000

Another activity during the stay-cation was sledding with Grandpa B. Here is the video. The best part may be Grandpa taking a spill at the beginning.

Link to Vimeo (also on YouTube)

Woodworking with Grandpa

Jonathan — Sat, 06 Mar 2010 20:23:25 +0000

During our recent stay-cation, one of the most popular activities was workworking in Grandpa’s basement workshop. Here are some photos:

From the Tumblelog February 21-27, 2010

Jonathan — Sat, 06 Mar 2010 14:35:01 +0000

Feb 27

Vols knock off No. 2 UK, claim another big upset

J.P. Prince had 20 points and Scotty Hopson added 15 and Tennessee (No. 17 ESPN/USA Today, No. 19 AP) snapped No. 2 Kentucky’s eight-game winning streak with a 74-65 win.

Assumptions

In order to turn the entirety of the Bible into law - or even just the parts that you want to turn into law - by way of the “C.E.N.I” (command, example, necessary inference) hermeneutic, you have to…

The Party of AARP: Why the G.O.P. is becoming the party of entitlements

The Single-Payer Health Debate We Should Have Had

There’s been a bit of a debate going on in the blogosphere lately about whether the Democrats should have proposed a more limited health reform plan in the first place. Such a plan might have…

The dangers of demanding consistency

My colleague George Will is not very impressed with the concern over Senate rules. “Such talk occurs only when the left’s agenda is stalled,” he writes. “Do you remember mournful…

YouTube - Obama and McCain - Dance Off!

Feb 26

The "Nuclear Option" Spin

In 2005, Senate Republicans became exasperated that Democrats began using the filibuster against judicial nominees, which had happened in the past but with less frequency than Democrats were…

Feb 25

RT @ezraklein: If polls are so important to the Republicans, why aren’t they for the public option?

The best health care for the most powerful people in the world

There’s a difference between the statements “America has the best health-care system in the world” and “With enough money, you can purchase the best health care in the world in America.”…

Feb 24

When Democrats become Republicans and Republicans become conservatives

To put a finer point on my earlier post about the compromises in the health-care bill, check out this Kaiser News Network table comparing the Senate bill, Boehner’s bill, and the bill that…

Stargate Studios Virtual Backlot Reel 2009

Feb 23

Ohio man bulldozes $350K home to avoid foreclosure - Yahoo! News

An Ohio man says he bulldozed his $350,000 home to keep a bank from foreclosing on it.

it’s nice to need sunglasses today.

Feb 22

Report: CIA Document Cheney Said Would Prove Torture Worked Was “Plainly Inaccurate”

I’m not sure why this from Michael Isikoff isn’t getting more attention:

A crucial CIA memo that has been cited by former Vice President Dick Cheney and other former Bush administration…

Republican ideas

The New York Times asked five conservatives to offer their prescriptions for health-care reform. It’s not a bad list, so far as these things go. The partisan bombast is kept to an…

Feb 21

An Open Letter to Liz Cheney on Torture

Dear Ms. Cheney,

I don’t know if you saw ‘Meet The Press’ this morning, but a general you may have heard of named David Petraeus — he’s the commander of U.S. forces in the Middle East and South…

Reid: Democrats will use reconciliation to finish health-care reform

Big, encouraging news on health-care reform today: Harry Reid says that Senate Democrats will use the reconciliation process to finish the bill within the next 60 days.

Paint It Black

Jonathan — Sat, 06 Mar 2010 13:52:15 +0000

The Carpenter Street School talent show was Friday night, and Elliot and his pals performed The Stones’ “Paint It Black.”

Here are a couple photos from a practice session:

Here is video of the performance:

also on YouTube

Here are a few pictures from the talent show:

2020 Visions

Jonathan — Sat, 27 Feb 2010 20:17:57 +0000

In Nature's January 7, 2010, issue (in an opinion section called 2020 Visions):

...Nature asked a selection of leading researchers and policy-makers where their fields will be ten years from now. [Nature] invited them to identify the key questions their disciplines face, the major roadblocks and the pressing next steps.

Several of the items caught my attention. The first was the section on demographics by Joshua R. Goldstein. Recently I'd already been thinking about how demographic changes are on track to create an explosion of debt via health care costs in the coming decades (link). In Nature, Goldstein writes:

As population growth marked the twentieth century, population ageing will mark the twenty-first. By 2020, the average European will have fewer years of life expectancy remaining than years he or she has already lived. East Asians will soon follow. Humankind will spend much of the coming decade grappling with questions about how to organize and pay for the care of an increasing elderly population and about who will produce what the elderly consume.

In the longer term, a return to moderate fertility rates in those countries with very low fertility, and increases in immigration can do much to moderate population ageing. Sweden and Japan face quite different demographic futures, because fertility in Sweden is closer to replacement and a small but steady stream of immigrants will make up the difference. In Japan — the world's leader in longevity — fertility remains low, and immigration a major social challenge.

We need demographic research on four fronts addressing population ageing. Low birth rates can perhaps be increased by measures that reconcile work and family, enabling people to have the children they say they want. Fostering the social and economic integration of immigrants is another priority. Health research, helping people to stay younger longer, is already a priority of ageing societies; indeed, so far, the healthy period of life has been lengthening as fast or faster than life expectancy itself. But now — as the first 65-year-old baby-boomers prepare to blow out their birthday candles — we must address the larger question of rescheduling life's turning points, so that people can remain active and productive. The societies that respond to ageing successfully will be those that take advantage of longer life.

The last line of the first paragraph ("Humankind will spend much of the coming decade grappling with questions about how to organize and pay for the care of an increasing elderly population and about who will produce what the elderly consume.") reminded me of references to Atlas Shrugged. Although I still haven't read it, in the wake of the US government's response to the current economic crisis I see it frequently invoked by pundits (link) and common-man political conservatives as a prophecy that the "producers" will eventually rebel against being taxed to support the "poor" and "lazy." It's ironic that the big crisis that is coming is not whether or not the "producers" will be willing and able to support the poor and the immigrants (another common target of conservative scorn) but rather whether they will be willing and able to support the elderly (who, coincidentally, have recently been flocking to the Republican party: link)...and that our ability to successfully attract and integrate young immigrants will be crucial to facing this challenge.

Another item that caught my attention was soil. David R. Montgomery writes:

To avoid the mistakes of past societies, as 2020 approaches, the world must address global soil degradation, one of this century's most insidious and under-acknowledged challenges. Humanity has already degraded or eroded the topsoil off more than a third of all arable land. We continue to lose farmland at about 0.5% a year — yet expect to feed more than 9 billion people later this century.

During the twentieth century, the Haber–Bosch process (allowing the mass production of nitrogen-based fertilizers) and the Green Revolution effectively divorced agriculture from soil stewardship. Increased yields were supported by intensive fertilizer inputs and mechanization that simplified and devastated soil life, reducing native soil fertility. For example, research in some conventional agricultural settings shows that other species such as bacteria have virtually replaced mycorrhizal fungi, which deliver soil nutrients to most plants. In a post-petroleum world, as the era of cheap fossil-fuel-produced fertilizers comes to an end, conventional, high-input agriculture is neither sustainable nor resilient. Ensuring future food security and environmental protection will require thoughtfully tailoring farming practices to the soils of individual landscapes and farms, rather than continuing to rely on erosive practices and fertilizer from a bag.

This sentence - "In a post-petroleum world, as the era of cheap fossil-fuel-produced fertilizers comes to an end, conventional, high-input agriculture is neither sustainable nor resilient." - really caught my attention. It's not a question of if but when we will be operating in a "post-petroleum world"...and the arrival of that day will require a massive shift in our agricultural practices.

These two topics - demographics and agricultural practices - are examples of the huge problems we have before us. There's no doubt that government will have to play a huge role in solving these problems. However, there is little evidence that it's up to the task...our politics seem to be broken and incapable of producing bold and timely responses to our major problems. The fact that half of us see government as being more of a problem creator than a problem solver makes me wonder how we can possibly respond effectively to our changing world.

The third topic from the nature story that piqued my interest was lasers and their potential to be part of the solution to our energy problems. Thomas M. Baer and Nicholas P. Bigelow write:

Next-generation lasers will allow the creation of new states of matter, compressing and heating materials to temperatures found only in the centres of massive stars, and at pressures that can squeeze hydrogen atoms together to a density 50 times greater than that of lead. The resulting fusion reactions may one day be harnessed to provide almost limitless carbon-free energy. Enough fusion fuel is present in the oceans to supply the current energy needs of the entire world for longer than the age of the Universe.

When so many of our pressing problems can be reduced to problems of energy supply, breakthroughs like this seem to be critical. I realize that enormous sums of money are already devoted to research like this, but I wonder if we are making appropriately-large bets given the enormous payout of success...and if research funding can be sustained at appropriate levels in the coming decades.

From the Tumblelog February 14-20, 2010

Jonathan — Sat, 27 Feb 2010 17:00:29 +0000

Feb 20

Percy Jackson time

Michelle Obama's anti-obesity initiative generates a childish pushback

Why Obama needs Rahm at the top

Let us now praise Rahm Emanuel . No, seriously. It is the current fashion to blame President Obama’s disappointing first year on his chief of staff. “First, remove Rahm Emanuel,” writes Leslie Gelb…

The torch has been passed. Elliot bought more books at the library used book sale tonight than I did.

Feb 19

disappointed by the ricky gervais show. same audio podcast i’ve already heard (and loved) but with cartoon visuals

Health care proposal for Obama to bring to summit: Cadillac tax stays, no public option, aides say: http://bit.ly/cJ4aH1

RT @ProFootballTalk: At some point, Tiger drifted from "buddhism" to "booty-ism."

Liz Cheney Loves Torture, Doesn’t Understand Interrogation

Why Obamacare won't do much to stop the premium increases the president deplores.

Feb 18

Posters on Online Political Forums

Posters on Online Political Forums

Graph by: JohnnyReb27 via Graph Jam Builder

RT @mmcauliff: Lloyd Doggett, on Austin plane: “Like the larger-scale tragedy in Oklahoma City, this was a cowardly act of domestic terrorism. "

The American Conservative -- His-Panic

Talk TV sensationalists and axe-grinding ideologues have fallen for a myth of immigrant lawlessness.

Bereans

Feb 16

What Do Liberals Want?

Feb 15

Favorite Customers #4 – Gorilla Lady

Arizona school bus gains WiFi, students suddenly chill out and get productive

Feb 14

Why Obama can't fire anyone

Cheney Struggles To Explain Terror Contradictions; Endorses DADT Repeal

Terror in Mumbai

Jonathan — Sat, 27 Feb 2010 02:09:14 +0000

I recently watched Terror in Mumbai (2009). From HuffPo:

When ten young men from Pakistan entered Mumbai aboard hi-jacked boats on the night of 26th November 2008, they had one intention: to create a terror that would grip international media and make the world sit up and take notice of Lashkar-e-Taiba -- the Army of the Righteous, a previously little known terrorist organization based in Pakistan.

And it's this intention, despite the extreme violence, allegations against Pakistan and shocking negligence of elements in the Mumbai police force, which really sticks with the viewer of Terror in Mumbai. The more you watch, the more you realize they succeeded.

The film has a unique perspective because it incorporates the cell-phone calls that the masterminds in Pakistan used to direct the terrorists during attack and footage of the sole surviving attacker being interviewed in police custody. Here is the trailer:

I give it 4 out of 5.

Boy Interrupted

Jonathan — Sat, 27 Feb 2010 01:52:54 +0000

I recently watched Boy Interrupted (2008).

On the night of Oct. 2, 2005, Hart and Dana Perry’s 15-year-old son Evan jumped to his death from his New York City bedroom window. This moving film is the story, told by his filmmaker parents and others who knew him, of Evan’s life and death, and his life-long struggle with bipolar disorder. It delves into the complexity of Evan’s disease, sharing his family’s journey through the maze of mental illness. In showing how one family deals with generations of loss and grief, the film defies the stigma related to mental illness and suicide and tells a human story that touches everyone.

For a parent of a kid who is presumably healthy but occasionally seems "bipolar" or makes suicidal statements, this film is chilling.

I give it 4 out of 5.

Reconciliation

Jonathan — Fri, 26 Feb 2010 04:50:38 +0000

Apparently the Democrats are steeling themselves to go it alone and pass health care reform via reconciliation (link):

...Obama is saying that unless Republicans support comprehensive reform as Obama and Dems have defined it — dealing with the problem of 30 million uninsured and, by extension, seriously tackling the preexisting condition problem — they will almost certainly move forward with reconciliation.

As they do, I'm sure the claims that they're ramming an unpopular bill down our throats or ramming it through Congress will only get louder. Here is what I think is important to keep in mind (hats off to Ezra Klein and Greg Sargent)...

The health plan is unpopular.

That plot illustrates the enormous success that the opponents of reform have had in shifting public opinion. Much of that unpopularity comes from people who think it goes too far, but a significant fraction from people who don't think it goes far enough...who think single-payer or a public option is a necessary element of real reform, for example. On the other hand, the individual components of the bill are quite popular (link):

As Klein puts it (link):

Health-care reform is unpopular. But if you actually tell people what's in the health-care reform bill, then it becomes quite popular.

This says to me that the polling that says that health care reform is "unpopular" is not a strong argument for killing Obamacare. Furthermore, (link):

If polls are so important to the Republicans, why aren't they for the public option?

Although it's not in the Senate bill, most Americans support the public option (a health insurance plan offered by the U.S. government) (link, link).

Obamacare gets portrayed as a radical, partisan plan...but "Republican" ideas are prominent in it (link), and the current Senate bill is much closer to 1993's proposal by moderate Republican Chafee than Boehner's plan is (link). Again from Klein (link):

We've got a situation in which Democrats are essentially pushing moderate Republican ideas while Republicans push extremely conservative ideas, but because neither the press nor the voters know very much about health-care policy, the fact that Republicans refuse to admit that Democrats have massively compromised their vision is enough to convince people that Democrats aren't compromising.

Republicans are generally wary of allowing the federal government to define the characteristics of minimally-acceptable health insurance. Klein points out that this philosophical opposition doesn't prevent them from defining minimum standards of their own (link):

Philosophically, Republicans do have a disagreement with this. It's regulation, after all. But in practice, they accept it. When Republican passed health savings accounts into law, they included definitions of the minimum standards a plan had to meet to qualify. When they passed the Medicare Prescription Drug Benefit into law, they defined what a plan would have to do to qualify for the program.

Klein makes another good point today (link):

There's a difference between the statements "America has the best health-care system in the world" and "With enough money, you can purchase the best health care in the world in America." But that difference gets run over in political conversations. Sen. John Barrasso, for instance, just mentioned that a Canadian premier recently got heart surgery in Miami. Best health care in the world, baby!

America has about 50 million uninsured people within its borders. Canada has exactly 13 premiers. People should ask themselves a very simple question: Do they think they are likelier to lose their job and fall into the health-care situation of the uninsured or become an influential politician and enjoy the health-care options available to the most powerful people in the world?

The complaint that I expect hear most in the coming days is that it will be a travesty to pass Obamacare via reconciliation (i.e. with a 51-vote simple majority rather than a 60-vote supermajority in the Senate). For example, Bill Frist in today's Wall Street Journal (link):

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has announced that while Democrats have a number of options to complete health-care legislation, he may use the budget reconciliation process to do so. This would be an unprecedented, dangerous and historic mistake.

Budget reconciliation is an arcane Senate procedure whereby legislation can be passed using a lowered threshold of requisite votes (a simple majority) under fast-track rules that limit debate. This process was intended for incremental changes to the budget—not sweeping social legislation.

Using the budget reconciliation procedure to pass health-care reform would be unprecedented because Congress has never used it to adopt major, substantive policy change. The Senate's health bill is without question such a change: It would fundamentally alter one-fifth of our economy.

However, as Julie Rovner pointed out (link), during the past 30 years reconciliation has been used many times and is actually the norm for major changes in health care. A quick summary:

1982 — TEFRA: The Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act first opened Medicare to HMOs
1986 — COBRA: The Consolidated Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act allowed people who were laid off to keep their health coverage, and stopped hospitals from dumping ER patients unable to pay for their care
1987 — OBRA '87: Added nursing home protection rules to Medicare and Medicaid, created no-fault vaccine injury compensation program
1989 — OBRA '89: Overhauled doctor payment system for Medicare, created new federal agency on research and quality of care
1990 — OBRA '90: Added cancer screenings to Medicare, required providers to notify patients about advance directives and living wills, expanded Medicaid to all kids living below poverty level, required drug companies to provide discounts to Medicaid
1993 — OBRA '93: created federal vaccine funding for all children
1996 — Welfare Reform: Separated Medicaid from welfare
1997 — BBA: The Balanced Budget Act created the state-federal childrens' health program called CHIP
2005 — DRA: The Deficit Reduction Act reduced Medicaid spending, allowed parents of disabled children to buy into Medicaid

As another example, Timothy Noah chronicles how welfare reform was accomplished (link).

Finally, Ezra Klein makes another good point on this topic (link):

It's a bit annoying, though, that Democrats keep justifying the reconciliation process based on the fact that Republicans have done it, too. The reconciliation process makes sense because majority votes make sense.

I Guess We're Not Going to Knoxville After All

Jonathan — Thu, 25 Feb 2010 06:05:16 +0000

We weren't wise enough to let the snow forecasts cancel our trip to Knoxville. The roads were pretty bad tonight, and someone rear-ended us on I-75 near Detroit. Thankfully, we weren't going very fast (due to slippery conditions and heavy traffic), and no one was hurt. We also weren't smart enough to keep the car running, so we drained the battery waiting for the police to arrive. The vacation is now a stay-cation at Grandma's.

Health Care Reform and the National Debt

Jonathan — Fri, 19 Feb 2010 04:43:53 +0000

Current tax rates are relatively low by historical standards. Here is a table and plot of the rates going back to 1913: link

They're also relatively low by international standards. See Table 1 in this article from Forbes: link

The combination of our aging demographics and skyrocketing health care costs means higher taxes are inevitable. See Figure 1 here regarding the coming debt explosion which will be driven primarily by health care costs: link

If you care about the debt and taxes, then the status quo regarding health care is not an option. Things like tort reform won't make a significant difference. The non-partisan CBO has estimated that it would only lower health care spending by 0.5 % (link), and the story is much the same for selling insurance across state lines (link).

More fundamental reform is required, yet even the relatively modest currently-proposed reforms are nearly dead. This doesn’t look good.

Update 2009-02-19:
Admittedly, federal income tax rates don't tell the full story about the tax burden. However, the international comparison in the Forbes article is total taxes (federal, state, and local). In terms of historical U.S. figures, the data from The Tax Foundation show that local and state taxes as a percentage of income have remained stable for the last 30 years (link). In terms of % of GDP (another metric of the tax burden), this figure shows that state and local taxes rose steadily from 1945 to 1970, but not astronomically (link). None of these data support the view that taxes are currently abnormally high. Given the impending debt explosion driven by demographics and health care costs, I'm betting taxes will rise eventually no matter which party is in power.

That Was Then and This Is Now

Jonathan — Wed, 17 Feb 2010 03:42:05 +0000

History does not record that Samuel Adams charged a fee for addressing the rally at the Old South Meeting House on Nov. 29, 1773, at which he rallied the Sons of Liberty to resist the British, leading to the Boston Tea Party. But that was then and this is now.

Garrison Keillor - link

More Photos from Lisa’s Bird Feeder

Jonathan — Mon, 15 Feb 2010 01:33:50 +0000

The previous photos are here: link

Photos from the Super Bowl Party 2010

Jonathan — Mon, 15 Feb 2010 01:26:10 +0000

By Elliot’s count there were 26 adults and 25 kids…

From the Tumblelog February 7-13, 2010

Jonathan — Mon, 15 Feb 2010 01:15:37 +0000

Feb 13

A new Buzz start-up experience based on your feedback

Posted by Todd Jackson, Product Manager, Gmail and Google Buzz
We’ve heard your feedback loud and clear, and since we launched Google Buzz four days ago, we’ve been working around the clock to…

Will health-care insurance save your life?

Megan McArdle’s column questioning the link between insurance coverage and mortality (researcher speak for “dying”) is interesting, but ultimately misleading. At its base, it takes a…

Feb 12

Millions of Buzz users, and improvements based on your feedback

Feb 11

NFL Films withholds post-interception talk

Reggie Wayne was wired for the Super Bowl and mostly didn’t say much. But as I watched parts of the game for an obsessive third time, I knew that Wayne’s mic’d up segment would pay off huge in…

BlueCross BlueShield of Texas' blueprint for denying health policies.

It’s difficult to appreciate the stakes in health care reform if you receive health insurance through your employer. About 59 percent of Americans do, and while they are paying more and more for…

RT @SPINmagazine: Free Download: New @Japandroids song! http://su.pr/6TsSN8

Feb 10

Sarah Palin’s Secret hand Notes - Tom Toles Editorial Cartoon on GoComics.com

Feb 09

gal328: Frequently Raised Objections

Republicans -- Not Obama -- More Often on Wrong Side of Public Opinion

One of the more commonplace assertions among pundits on the center-right — made rather carelessly by Victor Davis Hanson and more thoughtfully by Jay Cost, is that agenda put forward by Obama…

Condescending Liberals

“[I]n the end the bedrock common sense of the American people will prevail,” wrote conservative columnist Charles Krauthammer Friday in the Washington Post. He was crowing over Scott Brown’s…

No Fussin’ and Fightin’: Let’s Try Dialogue Instead

Much is said about the “culture wars” in the US—especially every four years at election time. And much was said leading up to yesterday’s Super Bowl concerning an ad from Focus on the Family, the…

poopy. lala.com is blocked at work again.

Feb 8

Elliot’s final tally from last night’s party was 26 adults and 25 kids.

Feb 7

Today Elliot was watching ESPN while Finn was in bed. There was bleeped profanity. Finn walked in and said "The swearing attracted me."

Finn just said "Elliot, I know how to get a girl when you are teenager. Give her a compliment and then walk away." - Too much iCarly!

Take A Good Look At Me

Jonathan — Fri, 12 Feb 2010 00:47:56 +0000

Finn was recently the student of the week in his class, and here is the information sheet that he filled out about himself:

Two Recent Drawings by Finn

Jonathan — Fri, 12 Feb 2010 00:43:54 +0000

Two Recent Drawings by Elliot

Jonathan — Fri, 12 Feb 2010 00:41:00 +0000

InFINNity and DNA

Jonathan — Thu, 11 Feb 2010 23:54:41 +0000

The other night I told Finn that he should change his nickname from “Finnster Malone Big Apple Bagel” to “inFINNity” and sign his name with the infinity symbol. I described how to draw the symbol. He grabbed a pen and paper and drew it. Then he expanded on the drawing and said, “If I draw these lines, then it looks like DNA.”

Here is the drawing:

I asked him where he learned what DNA looks like. He said, “From a TV show.” At least he is learning more than just how to get a girl when you are a teenager.

From the Tumblelog for January 31 - February 6, 2010

Jonathan — Tue, 09 Feb 2010 02:46:07 +0000

Feb 6

family movie night = Coraline

Feb 5

New Palin e-mails reveal 'First Dude's' influence in Alaskan government: Nearly 3,000 pages of e-mails th... http://bit.ly/bu6pjt

Content of our character: Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid stirred up lots of controversy recently when ... http://bit.ly/b6Wf4U

Feb 4

AT&T Finally Lets You Use SlingPlayer with Your iPhone Over 3G - http://bit.ly/cy7rgs

Feb 3

Fists for Jesus - THE WEEK: A small but growing number of evangelical churches are using mixed martial ar... http://bit.ly/c9I8HN

824,000 Jobs Will Disappear on February 5th - Bloomberg.com: TV and Radio: http://bit.ly/drUerB

Websense fail. http://www.tentsandtarps.org/ "This Websense category is filtered: Potentially Damaging Content." #tentsandtarpsforhaiti

Left-right want Obama 'question time': Group launches campaign for regular, televised conversations like ... http://bit.ly/9KfaLJ

BBC News - France refuses a citizenship over full Islamic veil: The French government refuses to grant ci... http://bit.ly/dxqVlc

Obama Acts to Engage G.O.P., Testing Party’s Intentions: The outreach is a marked shift in White House st... http://bit.ly/dlIxcd

1 argument vs "we must do wrong since right doesn't work" is to show that doing right works http://nyti.ms/cLOSll http://bit.ly/a7yeu5

The Greatest of These is Love: Another thought on faith, doubt and Christianity.In I Corinthians 13, the ... http://bit.ly/94dCsw

Feb 2

Getting real about Congress: "No single vote by any single senator could possibly illustrate everything... http://bit.ly/95UPxi

How Reaper would have ended, straight from the creators http://bit.ly/bO23VN

Feb 1

"Velvet Elvis" by @realrobbell is free for Kindle (or kindle app for iphone or your computer) today: http://bit.ly/cMI2qK

Poll: Republicans Think Obama Is A Socialist, And Palin More Qualified To Be President: A new Daily Kos/R... http://bit.ly/bd44FW

Faith and Doubt After "The Cognitive Turn": In my second class on doubt at church I focused on what I cal... http://bit.ly/9FoCCn

Palin PAC Spent More On Books Than Candidates: Ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin's (R) PAC spent more money buying c... http://bit.ly/aFlIeJ

watching Big Love jump the shark. too many wacky plot threads this season

Coraline

Jonathan — Sun, 07 Feb 2010 03:19:20 +0000

Today we watched Coraline (2009,PG) for family movie night. From ScreenIt!:

A lonely and bored preteen discovers a tunnel in her new house that leads to an alternate reality where most everything is the same, save for attentive parents who have buttons for eyes and want her to join them there.

Finn needed some convincing ahead of time about watching a movie that had people with buttons for eyes. We convinced him to give it a chance. The boys enjoyed it. Finn said, "It wasn't scary. It was creepy. Indiana Jones was scary."

I give it 4 out of 5.

Body of Lies

Jonathan — Sat, 06 Feb 2010 01:09:08 +0000

Tonight I finished watching Body of Lies (2008,R). From Screen It!:

A Middle East based CIA field operative clashes with his supervisor back in the states as the two try to find and stop a terrorist ringleader.

We started it last weekend. Lisa gave up on it pretty quickly with all of the non-stop gunfire at the beginning. She missed the romance in the middle before the violence returned at the end. It was OK...reminded me of The Kingdom.

I give it 3 out of 5.

Finn to Elliot as Overheard by Lisa

Jonathan — Sat, 06 Feb 2010 00:23:42 +0000

"Do you ever get the feeling that you want to tell everyone in the whole world that you love them? I usually feel like that - kind of all soft in the tummy like milk."