Tim's Weather Blog

-Thursday weather update; Chase plans for the next few days.

2013-05-16T11:33:00.002-07:00

/Issued 1:02 PM CDT, Thursday, May 16th, 2013/

7-day rainfall forecast from the Weather Prediction Center valid through next Thursday, May 23, 2013. Still looking at widespread 1-3"+ rain totals in Minnesota and much of Wisconsin this weekend and early next week.

Note: I won't be issuing any forecasts for the Twin Ports during the next several days. I'm leaving Duluth Friday Afternoon for a storm chase mini-vacation. Remember you can follow me on twitter @dlhmnwx30 as long as I have cell service I'll be tweeting.

My preliminary target/s are as follows:

Saturday: Either South Dakota or Kansas.
Sunday: Eastern Kansas area, possibly as far south as Oklahoma or as far north as Iowa.
Monday: Eastern Iowa/Western Illinois (assuming I chase this day)

The ingredients appear to be coming together for a few days with severe thunderstorm potential. Supercells will be possible as well. Large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible Saturday through Monday over a large portion of the Northern and Central Plains and in parts of the Upper Midwest.

-This same system giving the severe weather threat over the Plains will also impact the Northland with periods of rain and scattered thunderstorms beginning on Friday and lasting through at least next Tuesday. It won't rain continuously from Tomorrow into early next week, but there should be numerous rounds of rain that track through Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin this weekend and early next week.

A deep and slow moving upper level trough and a low pressure system moving northeast out of the Western High Plains will lead to the extended period of rainy weather over the Northland.

Weather Tidbits:

*The first 80 degree high temperature of 2013 occurred on May 15th at Duluth, Minnesota. This was the 1st time at or above 80F since September 11th (83 degrees) Note: Last May produced 3 days in the 80s. Will see how many we end up with this month.

May 1-15, 2013 climate summary for Duluth, MN

Average monthly temperature: 45.7 degrees
Departure: -3.3 degrees

Total precipitation: 0.29"
Departure: -1.22"

Total precipitation since March 1st: 7.37"
Departure: +1.94"

Total precipitation since January 1st: 9.92"
Departure: +2.72"

-Minnesota drought update as of May 14, 2013
Source: Climate Prediction Center

*44% of the state is in moderate drought, unchanged from last week.
*12% of the state is in severe drought, down from 14% last week.

Tim

Smoke plume showing up east of Solon Springs, WI This Afternoon; Wind shift to the west occurs in Duluth between 7pm-Midnight; 70s ahead for Wednesday-small PM shower chance.

2013-05-14T15:20:00.000-07:00

/Issued 4:38 PM CDT, Tuesday, May 14th, 2013/

*Tracking a possible smoke plume! This is the GR3 radar out of Duluth, Minnesota from late This Afternoon, May 14, 2013. Note the blue colors east of Solon Springs, WI. This appears to be a plume of smoke from a fire that has erupted This Afternoon in Eastern Douglas County. Also notice how the plume goes in a SW-NE direction, that's because the winds down in that area are out of the southwest, so it's pushing the smoke toward a northeasterly direction.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A strong area of low pressure was over Southern Manitoba late This Afternoon with a warm front and cold front advancing east through Central Minnesota. Incredible amounts of heat across the Upper Midwest Today with temperatures in the 80s and 90s across much of Minnesota with even some 100s in Southern Minnesota. The 90 degree club has even moved into the Northland This Afternoon, at 4 PM Brainerd and Pine River checked in at 90F. Much colder temperatures were found closer to Lake Superior with highs only in the 40s and 50s Today. Winds were out of the south, east or west at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

Note: A major bust by the computer models Today. For days they've been showing dew points getting into the 60s in Eastern Minnesota and Western Wisconsin. Not anywhere close to those values Today with mainly 40s showing up over E MN and W WI late This Afternoon. With the lower dew points comes much less instability with CAPE as of 4 PM generally under 500 j/kg.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence: High.

Tonight (May 14th)

Clear to partly cloudy skies will be found in our area as low pressure moves into Ontario while a cold front sweeps through the area. Limited moisture and instability along with the presence of a fairly stout cap should keep showers and thunderstorms from popping up over our area Tonight, still could see isolated showers or thunderstorms though This Evening, mainly in far Northern Minnesota-along the Ontario border and also in far Northern Wisconsin. No severe weather is expected. Lows Tonight will be in the 40s and 50s with winds shifting to the west at 10 to 25 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night (May 15th)

Low pressure will be centered to our northeast with high pressure to our west. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast this period. A weak disturbance approaching from the NW might be enough to trigger a few Afternoon/Evening showers in Northern Minnesota, otherwise this period looks dry. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 40s to lower 50s. Winds will be out of the west, southwest or northwest at 10 to 25 mph, less wind for Wednesday Night.

Extended Forecast - Confidence: High.

Thursday through Saturday (May 16th-18th)

An upper level trough will be moving into the Western U.S. during this period with a west/southwest flow aloft developing across the Upper Midwest. Low pressure over the Rockies and Western High Plains will result in a moist southerly flow of air across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest especially by Friday/Saturday.

At the moment Thursday is looking generally dry in the Northland. Showers or thunderstorms are possible then for Friday and Saturday. High temperatures will mainly be in the 60s from Thursday through Saturday with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior. Lows Thursday Night and Friday Night will be in the 40s and 50s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence: Medium.

(May 19th-22nd)

Low pressure and an upper level trough is forecast to impact the Upper Midwest and Western Great Lakes from Sunday into early next week (19th-21st) Rain is possible at times during that period. Thunderstorms are even a possibility, especially on Sunday. Near to below average temperatures are expected through this period.

*7-day rainfall forecast from the Weather Prediction Center. The trend toward a wet pattern continues to show up in the models Today. Could have widespread 1-2"+ rain totals in Minnesota and Wisconsin this weekend and early next week.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... Clear to partly cloudy. Low 41 to 46. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph, becoming west at 10 to 20 mph between 7 PM-12 AM.

.Wednesday... Warming up. Partly sunny. Late Afternoon showers possible. High 71 to 76. Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday Night... Showers possible early, otherwise partly to mostly cloudy. Low 45 to 50.

.Thursday... Partly sunny. High 65 to 70 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Thursday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 45 to 50.

.Friday... Showers possible. High 55 to 60 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Friday Night... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. Low 45 to 50.

.Saturday... Partly sunny. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 55 to 60 but cooler Lake Superior.

Normal temperatures for Today

High: 62
Low: 40

Sunrise Wednesday: 5:34 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday: 8:37 PM CDT

Tim

70s and 80s away from the big puddle on Tuesday with 90s in Minneapolis and over much of Southern MN; Warms up near the lake on Wed; Small risk for t'storms Tomorrow.

2013-05-13T15:08:00.004-07:00

/Issued 4:27 PM CDT, Monday, May 13th, 2013/

*NWS Storm Prediction Center severe thunderstorm probability forecast for Tuesday, May 14, 2013. All of Northeast Minnesota and Northern Wisconsin remain in a marginal (5% chance) for severe t'storms Tomorrow with hail and strong winds being the primary hazards if storms develop. More info. below.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A warm air advection pattern on the backside of a 1023mb high over Lake Michigan and out ahead of a 998mb low over Northeast North Dakota caused a narrow north/south band of sprinkles and light rain showers in the Northland This Afternoon. Skies were partly sunny to mostly cloudy Today with high temperatures in the 40s and 50s with 60s in Western areas. Winds were out of the south or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Note: Extreme temperature contrast across the region Today. At 3 PM Today temperatures ranged from 91 degrees at Aberdeen, SD; 90 degrees at Grand Forks, ND; 82 degrees at Hallock, MN; 53 degrees at International Falls, MN; and 43 degrees at Grand Marais, MN. Wow!

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence: High.

Tonight (May 13th)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area Tonight with lows in the 30s and 40s, but a few Western locations might stay in the 50s. Sprinkles or light showers may affect the Arrowhead and parts of Northwest Wisconsin This Evening, otherwise Tonight will be dry.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night (May 14th)

A strong area of low pressure averaging 987-993mb is forecast to move through Southern Manitoba and Western Ontario during this period with a secondary low cutting through Central/Eastern Minnesota. A warm front and cold front will be moving through the Upper Midwest from Tuesday into Tuesday Evening.

Severe weather would be more of a concern on Tuesday if it weren't for the warm temperatures aloft. 925mb temperatures are forecast to rise to between +20 to +26C with 850mb temperatures warming to +18 to +24C and 700mb temperatures of around +8C. This warming should prove difficult for the development of thunderstorms as this system passes through on Tuesday. However, should a few storms be able to develop they could turn strong to severe with the ingredients that are forecast to be in place over our area Tuesday PM.

0-6 KM Shear: 40-65 knots.
Effective Bulk Shear: 40-60 knots.
1 KM Helicity: 150 m2/s2 to 350 m2/s2.
CAPE: Around 1000-2000 j/kg.
Lifted Indices: -2 to -6C.
Dew Points: 50s.
500mb winds speeds: 50-65 knots.
850mb wind speeds: Around 30-40 knots.

High temperatures on Tuesday will range from the 40s and 50s near Lake Superior to the 70s and 80s elsewhere. Lows Tuesday Night will be in the 40s and 50s. Winds will be out of the south, east, or west Tomorrow at 10 to 25mph. Winds will swing around to the west area-wide Tomorrow Night at 10 to 25 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence: High.

Wednesday through Friday (May 15th-17th)

Wednesday and Thursday look mainly dry at this time with highs in the 60s and 70s. Low pressure moving through Ontario could cause some gusty west winds over our area on Wednesday. Some showers could move into the Northland on Friday as an upper level trough develops over the Rockies which will setup a southwest flow across the Plains. Highs on Friday will be in the 50s and 60s. Lows Wednesday Night and Thursday Night are forecast to be in the 40s to lower 50s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence: Medium.

(May 18th-21st)

A rainy May 18-21 is possible as a slow moving upper level trough and storm system move through the Central Plains, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Could even see some thunderstorms in parts of our area this Saturday/Sunday. Near to below average temperatures are expected this period.

*7-day rainfall forecast from the Weather Prediction Center valid through next Monday, May 20, 2013. Still looks like a wetter pattern developing for much of the Upper Midwest this upcoming weekend with potential for 1-4" rainfall totals, heaviest amounts in Iowa and Illinois.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 36 to 41. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday... A few showers or thunderstorms possible. High 65 to 70 but in the 40s near Lake Superior. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday Night... A few showers or thunderstorms possible early, otherwise partly to mostly cloudy. Low 45 to 50. Wind shifting to the west at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday... Breezy. Milder near Lake Superior. Partly sunny. High 68 to 73. West winds could occasionally gust to 25 mph.

.Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 45 to 50.

.Thursday... Partly sunny. High 65 to 70.

.Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 45 to 50.

.Friday... Showers possible. Mostly cloudy. High 57 to 62 but cooler near Lake Superior.

Normal temperatures for Today

High: 62
Low: 40

Sunrise Tuesday: 5:35 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday: 8:36 PM CDT

Tim

70s near Lake Superior by Wednesday, until then it stays chilly; Inland locations warmup Monday-but more so on Tuesday; Small risk for showers on Monday.

2013-05-12T15:07:00.003-07:00

/Issued 4:02 PM CDT, Sunday, May 12th, 2013/

-Here's the NWS Storm Prediction Center severe weather forecast for Tuesday, May 14, 2013.

Much of Northeast Minnesota and all of Northern Wisconsin is in a 5% (marginal) chance for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday (brown color area)

*Record Event*
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Record low temperature was tied This Morning (5/12/13) at International Falls, Minnesota. The Morning low was 22 degrees tying the previous record which was set in 1996.

Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

May 5-11, 2013.

High temperatures:

5/5: 49F/10 degrees below average.
5/6: 71F/12 degrees above average
5/7: 76F/16 degrees above average
5/8: 74F/14 degrees above average
5/9: 54F/6 degrees below average
5/10: 48F/13 degrees below average
5/11: 47F/14 degrees below average

Low temperatures:

5/5: 34F/4 degrees below average
5/6: 34F/4 degrees below average
5/7: 39F/1 degree above average
5/8: 42F/4 degrees above average
5/9: 35F/4 degrees below average
5/10: 35F/4 degrees below average
5/11: 35F/4 degrees below average

Total precipitation: Trace
Average: 0.71"
Departure: -0.71"

-Temperature departure map for last week. An up and down week for temperatures in Duluth, in the end we ended up around 2 degrees colder than average.

-Precipitation departure map for last week. A very dry week in Duluth with just a trace of precipitation during the last 7 days (around 10% of average)

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Deep low pressure of 996mb was centered along the Ontario-Quebec border late This Afternoon with a high pressure ridge of 1024mb covering the Upper Midwest and Central Plains. The weather did improve just a bit Today with copious amounts of sunshine and somewhat less wind compared to Saturday, temperatures were still on the cool side, however, with highs generally in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Winds were out of the north or west at 10 to 20 mph with a few higher gusts.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence: High.

Tonight (May 12th)

High pressure will keep our area dry Tonight under clear to partly cloudy skies. Lows will mainly be in the 30s, but a few spots might fall into the 20s once again. Winds will be out of the north, west or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Monday and Monday Night (May 13th)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will occur this period with a few showers possible Monday Afternoon/early Evening as a warm front moves into Western Minnesota resulting in a warm air advection pattern developing across the Upper Midwest. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 50s to around 60 degrees but it will be cooler near Lake Superior. Lows Monday Night will be in the 30s and 40s. South or east winds are forecast this period at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence: High.

Tuesday through Thursday (May 14th-16th)

A strong area of low pressure averaging 988-993mb is forecast to move through Southern Manitoba and Ontario on Tuesday and Wednesday. A warm front and cold front attached to this low will sweep through the Northland on Tuesday.

A few showers or thunderstorms may develop on Tuesday in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin as this system moves through. Dew points are expected to climb into the 50s with CAPE generally around 1000 j/kg and Lifted Indices of -2 to -4C. Note: The computer models are showing much higher values of moisture and instability for Tuesday, but this is probably overdone. This system will also have good upper level support with a strong mid level jet of 45-65 knots cutting through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. About 40-60 knots of shear is also forecast on Tuesday per SREF model guidance.

The prospects for severe weather continue to be on the low/marginal side mostly because of the warm air that'll overspread our area on Tuesday which may effectively cap-off the atmosphere and prevent thunderstorms from developing.

However, as I mentioned on Saturday, if the cap is weaker or breaks, then the potential for a few severe thunderstorms could increase Tuesday Afternoon/Evening. The overall setup for severe weather is actually pretty good (minus the warm 700mb, 850mb and 925mb temperatures)

High temperatures on Tuesday will range from the 40s and 50s near Lake Superior to the 60s and 70s elsewhere, might even see a few 80s especially in Western/Southern parts of the Northland. Lows Tuesday Night will be in the 40s and 50s.

Dry weather returns to Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Wednesday and Thursday with highs both days in the 60s and 70s. Lows Wednesday Night will be in the 40s to lower 50s.

Note: Gusty west winds could develop late Tuesday Night into Wednesday on the south side of the deep low passing through Ontario.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence: Medium.

(May 17th-20th)

Near to below average temperatures are forecast during this period. An upper level trough looks like it'll setup over the Western-Central U.S. with low pressure over the Plains. If this system moves far enough north, then we would get some rain at times from the 18th-20th. High pressure sitting over Hudson Bay Canada might be just enough to keep this system away from the Northland though. Stay tuned.

-7 day precipitation forecast from the Weather Prediction Center. This is valid through next Sunday, May 19, 2013. Could see some locally heavy amounts of rain develop in Southern Minnesota and nearby states, mainly from Friday-Sunday (17th-19th) 1-2"+ totals are possible.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... Mostly clear. Low 28 to 33. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph, becoming east around 10 mph late.

.Monday... Partly to mostly cloudy. Light showers possible during the Afternoon. High 50 to 55 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 38 to 43. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday... Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 55 to 60 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Tuesday Night... Showers or thunderstorms possible early. Low 45 to 50.

.Wednesday... Breezy. Warming up. Partly sunny. High 68 to 73. West winds could occasionally gust to 25 mph.

.Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 45 to 50.

.Thursday... Partly sunny. High 65 to 70.

Normal temperatures for Today

High: 61
Low: 40

Sunrise Monday: 5:36 AM CDT
Sunset Monday: 8:35 PM CDT

Tim

Record lows for Sunday AM include 22F (1996) at International Falls; 24F (1946) at Duluth-might break or get close to these records by daybreak.

2013-05-11T18:24:00.003-07:00

/Issued 6:54 PM CDT, Saturday, May 11th, 2013/

Weather tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota:

-The average temperature for May (thru the 10th) 43.9F which is 4.4 degrees colder than average.

-It's been a dry start to May with just 0.22" of precipitation thru the 11th. This is 0.89" below average. Will May finish below average in terms of total precipitation? If it does, it would be the 1st month to do so since November 2012.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

What a crazy day with lots of things going on and it's all cold weather related, yes it is May 11th. Deep low pressure of 1002mb was over Eastern Ontario early This Evening with strong high pressure of 1026mb covering the Northern Plains. The pressure difference between the low to our east and high to our west along with the presence of steep lapse rates caused strong NW winds in the Northland Today. Wind speeds of 10 to 25 mph were common with gusts of 30-40 mph. The strongest winds actually occurred when convective type showers moved through the area. With so much cold air in the mid/upper levels of the atmosphere, precipitation that did fall came in the form of graupel, snow and some rain. The showers were very brief, but quite intense when they did occur. Temperatures Today were only in the 30s and 40s which is way below average for early May.

Note: The other big story Today occurred on Lake Mille Lacs in Eastcentral Minnesota. Ice shoves took place Today, basically meaning that the ice that was over the lake moved onshore and piled up causing damage to some resort homes/cabins Today. Incredible!

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence: High.

Tonight (May 11th)

High pressure to our west will continue to produce a cold advection pattern across the Northland with 850mb temperatures of -6 to -10C which is unseasonably cold for this time of year. Critical thickness values will be around 1300 which is also quite rare for May, in other words if precipitation were to occur Tonight it would fall in the form of snow. Luckily it'll be dry Tonight under clear-partly cloudy skies. The exception to this could be along the South Shore of Lake Superior where lake effect snow/sleet showers could develop at times, mainly affecting Ashland and Iron County. Lows Tonight will be in the 20s and lower 30s, but a few spots in Northern Minnesota could drop into the teens. Record or near record cold is possible by daybreak. Winds will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts This Evening.

Sunday and Sunday Night (May 12th)

A dry but cool Mother's Day under sunny to partly cloudy skies. Highs will be in the 40s and 50s with northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph. Sunday Night will feature partly cloudy skies with lows in the 20s and 30s. High pressure will pass over the Upper Midwest during this period resulting in the dry conditions.

Extended Forecast - Confidence: High.

Monday through Wednesday (May 13th-15th)

Changes take place during this period as high pressure moves off to our east on Monday with a southerly return flow developing on the backside of that high and out ahead of a warm front which will move east out of the Northern Plains. A strong warm air advection pattern developing over the Upper Midwest on Monday should lead to quite a bit of mid level cloudiness and possibly some showers. Highs on Monday will be in the 50s and 60s with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior. Lows Monday Night will be in the 30s and 40s.

A strong area of low pressure will pass northwest of the Northland on Tuesday with a warm front and cold front moving through the Upper Midwest. Dew points climbing into the 50s and CAPE values of 500-1500 j/kg are forecast to develop Tuesday PM Note: The computer models show even higher amounts of moisture and instability for Tuesday, but this is probably overdone. A lot of warm air will also be pushing into the Northland on Tuesday with 850mb temperatures climbing to +14 to +20C, 925mb temperatures >24C and 700mb temperatures of around +8C. What this means is that even though frontal boundaries will be moving through and tapping into a moist/unstable airmass, the presence of such warm air aloft will likely prevent much shower/thunderstorm activity. With that said, the setup for Tuesday is one that needs to be watched as the ingredients to support a few strong to severe thunderstorms are available. A strong mid level jet of 45-65 knots is forecast to move into the Upper Midwest on Tuesday with changing wind direction with height, this would support a supercell potential should thunderstorms develop, again this chance looks very low at this time, but things could change. High temperatures on Tuesday will range from the 40s and 50s near Lake Superior to the 60s and 70s elsewhere, might even be a few 80s from the Brainerd Lakes toward Pine City and Siren. Lows Tuesday Night will be in the 40s and 50s.

Wednesday is looking mainly dry at the moment with a cold front located south/east of our area while low pressure passes through Ontario. Highs on Wednesday will be in the 60s and 70s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence: Medium.

(May 16th-19th)

Next Thursday/Friday (16th-17th) look mainly dry at this time. A few showers might return to the area next weekend (18th-19th) as an upper level trough and area of low pressure move out onto the Plains. Near to above average temperatures are expected through this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... Clear to partly cloudy. Cold for the time of year. Record or near record lows possible. Low 25 to 30. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Note: Record low for Sunday Morning is 24 degrees set in 1946.

.Mother's Day... Mostly sunny. High 48 to 53. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 28 to 33. Wind light and variable around 12 mph.

.Monday... Mostly cloudy. High 50 to 55 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Monday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 38 to 43.

.Tuesday... Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 55 to 60 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Tuesday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Showers or thunderstorms possible mainly during the Evening. Low 43 to 48.

.Wednesday... Warmer. Partly cloudy. High 67 to 72.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High: 61
Low: 40

Sunrise Sunday: 5:37 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday: 8:34 PM CDT

Tim

A list of Northland lakes that have ice out included in Today's blog; A brisk and not so pleasant Saturday ahead; 90s-possible 100s in Southwest Minnesota next Tue. much cooler in Duluth.

2013-05-10T14:57:00.004-07:00

/Issued 3:42 PM CDT, Friday, May 10th, 2013/

*All the dots on this map are the lakes that have ice out per Minnesota DNR. Notice the lack of dots once you get north of about Lake Mille Lacs in Central Minnesota that's because a lot of the lakes in Northern Minnesota continue to be ice covered.

Source: Paul Douglas; St. Cloud Times; Weather Nation.

*Here's a webcam shot of Lake Mille Lacs in Central Minnesota. Notice the ice that still covers one of the more popular lakes in Minnesota. Amazing!

Source: Paul Douglas; St. Cloud Times; Weather Nation.

The Minnesota fishing opener kicks off on Saturday, May 11, 2013. Many lakes across Northern Minnesota remain ice-covered as the 2013 fishing season gets underway.

Here's a list of Northland lakes that have ice out.
Source: MN DNR

Upper Pine (Northwest Pine County MN) Ice-out: May 7. Average date: April 22.

Pokegama (Southwest Pine County MN) Ice-out: May 6. Average date: May 6.

Moosehead (Southern Carlton County MN) Ice-out: May 9. Average date: April 21.

Bear (Southern Aitkin County MN) Ice-out: May 8. Average date: April 15.

Platte (Southeast Crow Wing County MN) Ice-out: May 8. Average date: April 17.

Red Sand (Western Crow Wing County MN) Ice-out: May 8. Average date: April 15.

Note: The 6 lakes listed above all had their latest ice-out dates on record.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A strong upper level trough is digging S/SE out of Manitoba with a cold front heading into Northwestern Minnesota late This Afternoon. We saw lots of sunshine in the Northland Today with high temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s which is pretty close to average for most locations. Much colder 30s and 40s continued though near Lake Superior. Winds Today were out of the south or east at 5 to 15 mph with gusts over 20 mph near Lake Superior.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-Flood update
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

*FLOOD WARNING*

Location: The Mississippi River at Aitkin affecting Aitkin County.

Stage as of 2:30 PM CDT Friday: 13.2 feet.

Flood stage: 12.0 feet.

Forecast: Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast. Stage remaining around 13.3 feet. Falling below flood stage next Tuesday and Wednesday, May 14-15.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence: High.

Tonight (May 10th)

A strong cold front will slice SE through the Northland Tonight. There isn't a great deal of moisture for this front to tap into, but there is some forcing and this should be enough to cause about a 1-3 hour window where there could be some rain showers. These showers will march NW-SE during the night. Lows will mainly be in the 30s to lower 40s with winds shifting from the south/east to the northwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

Saturday and Saturday Night (May 11th)

Gusty NW winds will occur this period due to strong low pressure in Ontario combined with high pressure off to our west which results in a tight pressure gradient over the Upper Midwest. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast Tomorrow with a few rain or snow showers, mainly in Northeast Minnesota and along the Ontario border. Looks dry Tomorrow Night under clear to partly cloudy skies. Highs on Saturday will be in the 40s to around 50 degrees with some far Northern Minnesota locations staying in the 30s. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 20s and 30s with a few teens even possible in the traditional cold spots. Northwest winds are expected this period at 10 to 25 mph with higher gusts during the daytime hours.

Extended Forecast - Confidence: High.

Sunday through Tuesday (May 12th-14th)

Mother's Day continues to look cool, but dry and there should be a good deal of sunshine as high pressure moves overhead. Highs on Sunday will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Sunday Night in the 20s and 30s. Early next week will see the area of high pressure move east of the Upper Midwest while low pressure approaches from Western Canada along with a warm front and and cold front.

The warm air advection moving in on Monday may be enough to generate a light shower or two, but right now it appears that most of our area will stay dry. Highs on Monday will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Monday Night in the 30s and 40s.

The forecast gets a little more complicated for next Tuesday. There's going to be a lot of warm air moving in aloft with 850mb temperatures increasing to +14 to +20C and 700mb temperatures of around +8C.

This warm air may be enough to keep showers and thunderstorms from developing over our area as a warm front and cold front move into the Upper Midwest. Should convection develop, then there very well could be a risk for strong to severe thunderstorms over parts of Minnesota as the GFS model shows plenty of instability and moisture in place by Tuesday PM. High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the 60s and 70s but it will be cooler near Lake Superior. Note: There's a pretty good chance for 90s in Western/Southern Minnesota on Tuesday.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence: Medium.

(May 15th-18th)

Near to above average temperatures are expected during this period. Looks mainly dry next Wednesday/Thursday (15th-16th) Could see a few showers by the 17th-18th.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... Becoming mostly cloudy. A few showers possible, mainly between 8 PM-1 AM. Low 30 to 35. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph, becoming northwest at 15 to 30 mph after Midnight.

.Saturday... Windy. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 42 to 47. Wind northwest at 15 to 30 mph.

.Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 25 to 30. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Mother's Day... Mostly sunny. High 48 to 53.

.Sunday Night... Mostly clear. Low 28 to 33.

.Monday... Partly sunny. High 50 to 55.

.Monday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 38 to 43.

.Tuesday... Partly sunny. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 55 to 60 but cooler near Lake Superior.

Normal temperatures for Today

High: 61
Low:   39

Sunrise Saturday: 5:39 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:    8:32 PM CDT

Tim

Rain ends in NW Wisconsin This Evening; A chilly night ahead; Lots of sun on Friday-still cool especially near Lake Superior; Major cold front blasts through Friday Night; Next Tue t'storm threat?

2013-05-09T15:14:00.000-07:00

/Issued 4:14 PM CDT, Thursday, May 9th, 2013/

Drought update as of May 7, 2013
Source: Climate Prediction Center

Minnesota:

*44% of the state is in Moderate Drought. Down from 46% last week.
*15% of of the state is in Severe Drought. Unchanged from last week.

Note: 14% of Minnesota is now drought-free this week this is up from 9% last week.

Wisconsin:

*0.41% of the state is in Moderate Drought. Down from 12% last week.

Note: 86% of Wisconsin is now drought-free this week this is up from 73% last week.

Weather Tidbits:

-Only 104 tornadoes in the U.S. between March 1st-May 8th, 2013. In 2012, there were 481 tornadoes from March through May. In 2011, there were 1159 tornadoes from March through May. Source: WeatherNation.

-2013 started with 2 months of above average tornadoes, but since then it's been well below average. January: 75 tornadoes; average is 35. February: 39 tornadoes; average is 29. March: 18 tornadoes; average is 80. April: 83 tornadoes; average is 155. May (thru the 8th) 3; average is 276. (Source: WeatherNation)

-Iowa is set to break the longest streak record without a tornado. As of May 9th, 2013 it's been 350 days since the last time a tornado occurred in Iowa (May 24, 2012) The all-time record is 355 days from May 5, 1955 through April 26, 1956. (Source, @NWSDesMoines; @chasetheplains)

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A miserable day if you live in Northwest Wisconsin as overcast skies and a steady light to moderate rain occurred for most of the day. The weather was a tad better over in Northern Minnesota with no rain and partly to mostly cloudy skies. Quite the spread in high temperatures Today ranging from the 50s and lower 60s in parts of Northern Minnesota to the 30s and 40s in Eastern Minnesota, around Lake Superior, and in Northwest Wisconsin. Winds Today were out of the north or east at 10 to 25 mph.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence: High.

Tonight (May 9th)

A strong area of high pressure averaging 1032mb will be over Ontario Tonight. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found over the Northland with some rain lingering before Midnight in Northwest Wisconsin-generally along and southeast of a Siren to Hurley line. Lows Tonight will be in the 20s and 30s with north or east winds at 5 to 15 mph.

Friday and Friday Night (May 10th)

Partly cloudy to sunny skies are expected Tomorrow with highs in the 50s to lower 60s with 30s and 40s near Lake Superior. A strong cold front cuts southeast through the area Friday Night with about a 1-3 hour window where there could be some rain showers. Might even see an isolated thunderstorm early Friday Evening from the Brainerd Lakes to International Falls. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast Tomorrow Night with lows mainly in the 30s. Winds will shift from the south/east on Friday to the northwest Friday Night once the cold front moves through, wind speeds will range from 10-25 mph, the strongest winds developing later Friday Night.

Extended Forecast - Confidence: High.

Saturday through Monday (May 11th-13th)

Little has changed for the weekend. A windy and chilly Saturday is on tap with highs mainly in the 40s to around 50 degrees, but some locales in far Northern Minnesota might stay in the 35-38 degree range all day long.

Deep low pressure passing through Ontario will result in strong gradient winds out of the NW with gusts of 25-35 mph throughout the Northland on Saturday Note: Use extreme caution if you plan to be out on area lakes as a decent NW chop will likely occur, that's assuming there's open water and not ice on the lake you plan to be at/on. Saturday does look mainly dry, although some snow or rain showers can't be ruled out across Northern Minnesota.

Dry weather Saturday Night through Sunday Night as high pressure moves through the region. Lows Saturday Night will be in the 20s and 30s with highs on Mother's Day in the 40s and 50s.

Increasing southerly flow develops early next week as high pressure gets the boot to the east while a warm front approaches from the Northern Plains. Airmass looks awfully dry so there probably won't be any rain as the warm front edges east from the Dakotas. Lows Sunday Night will be in the 20s and 30s with highs on Monday in the 50s and 60s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence: Medium.

(May 14th-17th)

Question marks for next Tuesday as the GFS and CANADIAN models (12z run) show a fairly decent setup for potential showers and thunderstorms in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin as a pretty deep area of low pressure passes through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest along with a warm front and cold front. The GFS is showing impressive convective parameters for next Tuesday with a sufficient amount of instability and moisture along with strong mid level winds, the problem would be the warm temperatures aloft which may keep a lid on the atmosphere and help prevent thunderstorms from developing. The EUROPEAN model is and hasn't been as favorable for next Tuesday's thunder threat. So at the moment it's more of waiting game to see how the models handle things in coming days. Stay tuned.

Next Wednesday-Friday (15th-17th) is looking mainly dry at the moment.

Near to above average temperatures are forecast through this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... Becoming partly cloudy. Low 30 to 35. Wind east to northeast at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts This Evening.

.Friday... Partly cloudy. High 46 to 51 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday Night... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. Low 30 to 35. Wind becoming northwest at 15 to 25 mph Overnight.

.Saturday... Windy. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 42 to 47. Northwest winds could occasionally gust to 30 mph.

.Saturday Night... Mostly clear. Low 27 to 32.

.Mother's Day... Mostly sunny. High 50 to 55.

.Sunday Night... Mostly clear. Low 28 to 33.

.Monday... Partly sunny. High 57 to 62.

Normal temperatures for Today

High: 60
Low: 39

Sunrise Friday: 5:40 AM CDT
Sunset Friday: 8:31 PM CDT

Tim

MN fishing opener tidbits; May tornado stats; And the Midwest climate summary for April 2013 included in Today's blog, plus the Mother's Day forecast-looks dry, breezy, and cool.

2013-05-08T15:25:00.002-07:00

/Issued 4:28 PM CDT, Wednesday, May 8th, 2013/

* A pretty cool map from @UStornadoes (Twitter) This map shows the 1982-2011 climo for chase day tornadoes during the month of May.

Light blue=Tornadoes from May 1-15.
Darker blue=Tornadoes from May 16-31.

Minnesota fishing opener weather tidbits
Source: Paul Douglas. St. Cloud Times.

-Of the past 64 fishing openers 6 of them have had a trace of snow in Northern Minnesota.
-Of the past 64 fishing openers at least 4 of them had some lakes that were still frozen.

*Midwest climate summary for April 2013*
Source: Midwest Regional Climate Center

*Every Midwestern state, except for Kentucky and Ohio ranked in their top 12 wettest Aprils on record.

*More than 475 daily snowfall records last month.

*Just over 24 monthly snowfall records.

*4th coldest April on record in the state of Minnesota with an average temperature of 34.3 degrees. Note: Iowa and Wisconsin ranked in the top 10 for coldest Aprils.

-Temperature departure map for Minnesota for April 2013. Very impressive monthly temperature deficits, Western areas of the state anywhere from -10 to around -14 degrees! -6 to -8 degrees below average in the East.

The cold and wet spring has delayed corn planting across the Midwest.
Source: Midwest Regional Climate Center

As of April 28th, 2013 here's the percentage of corn that's been planted in the Midwest and the departure from the 2008-2012 average.

Illinois: 1%. -35% of average.
Indiana: 1%. -29% of average.
Iowa: 2%. -34% of average.
Kentucky: 24%. -24% of average.
Michigan: 0%. -17% of average.
Minnesota: 0%. -33% of average.
Missouri: 15%. -27% of average.
Ohio: 2%. -23% of average.
Wisconsin: 0%. -12% of average.

For the entire Midwest: Only 5% of corn has been planted as of 4/28/13 which is -26% of average.

Weather Tidbits:

-Today is the 3rd day in a row with a high temperature of at least 70 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

-Yesterday's high temperature of 76F at Duluth, MN (Airport location) was the warmest high temperature since September 16th, 2012, 79F.

-What a difference a few days make. On May 5th, Duluth's temperature departure for the month was at -10.4 degrees. Fast forward a few days later, and now for May the temperature departure is down to -5.6 degrees. That's what a few days of 70s will do.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A cold front has been dropping south out of Northern Minnesota Today while an upper level low churns east-northeast out of South Dakota and Nebraska. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have been occurring in parts of our area Today in response to the cold front and that upper low to our southwest. Otherwise it was another very mild day with highs in the 60s and 70s with a few spots in Northwest Wisconsin closing in on 80 degrees. Skies were mostly cloudy to partly sunny Today and winds were light and variable in direction at around 10 mph.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term - Confidence: High.

Tonight (May 8th)

Mostly cloudy skies with occasional showers will be the rule Tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible This Evening. Not looking at anything severe Tonight with meager amounts of instability and moisture in place, plus the winds aloft are almost non-existent. Any storm that pops up will rain itself out after a few minutes from when it develops.

Lows Tonight will range from the 30s in Northern Minnesota to the 40s and 50s elsewhere. North or east winds are forecast at 5 to 15 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night (May 9th)

A cold front and a surface and upper level area of low pressure will be centered to our south/southeast during this period with strong high pressure over Western Ontario. Occasional showers are possible Tomorrow, mainly from Eastern Minnesota through Northern Wisconsin. Northern Minnesota should stay dry. Highs on Thursday will be much cooler compared to the past few days with 40s and 50s across the Northland. Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies are forecast with north or east winds at 10 to 20 mph. Expect mainly dry conditions for Thursday Night with skies turning partly cloudy. Lows will drop into the 20s and 30s with north or east winds at 10 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence: High.

Friday through Sunday (May 10th-12th)

Dry on Friday with highs in the 50s and a few 60s with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior. A strong cold front blasts through the area Friday Night with a decent amount of lift near this front which will likely lead to a period of showers (lasting about 1-2 hours in any given location) Once this front passes through, strong NW winds will develop as deep low pressure barrels through Ontario. Saturday-Sunday look mainly dry, although a few rain or snow showers could occur on Saturday, mainly in far Northern Minnesota.

Highs on Saturday will be in the 40s and 50s, but a few 30s are certainly possible in far Northern Minnesota. Highs on Mother's Day (Sunday) will be in the 40s and 50s.

Lows Friday Night and Saturday Night are forecast to be in the 20s and 30s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence: High.

(May 13th-16th)

Still looking at a nice warmup for early next week as high pressure moves off to our east while low pressure to our NW results in a mild southwest flow across the Upper Midwest. Right now, Tuesday (14th) looks like the warmest day with 850mb temperatures soaring to +16 to +24C in Minnesota, this could result in widespread 80s across the Gopher state, but that depends on the amount of sun we see. If it's cloudier, then highs would likely be in the 70s.

Not looking at any big storm systems affecting the Upper Midwest during this period. A few showers or thunderstorms can't be ruled out sometime Tuesday/Wednesday (14th-15th) But that's about it, and right now those chances rain are pretty low.

Near to above average temperatures are expected during this period.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-Flood update
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

*FLOOD WARNING*

Location: The Mississippi River at Aitkin affecting Aitkin County.

Stage as of 3:30 PM CDT Wednesday: 13.3 feet.

Flood stage: 12.0 feet.

Forecast: Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast. River levels remaining nearly steady around 13.3 feet the next few days, before falling below flood stage on Tuesday, May 14th.

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*FLOOD ADVISORY*

Location: Northcentral Iron County in Northwest Wisconsin.

Timing: Until 9:30 PM CDT Tonight.

Discussion: The Montreal River is running high due to warm temperatures that has caused some significant snowmelt. Some locations that will experience flooding include...Hurley.

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5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers possible. Low 45 to 50. Wind light and variable around 10 mph, becoming east to northeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday... Cooler. Considerable cloudiness. Showers possible at times. High 50 to 55, falling into the 40s. Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday Night... Becoming partly cloudy. Low 30 to 35. Wind east to northeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday... Partly cloudy. High 55 to 60 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Friday Night... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. Low 30 to 35.

.Saturday... Breezy. Partly sunny. High 45 to 50. Northwest winds could occasionally gust to 25 mph.

.Saturday Night... Mostly clear. Low 30 to 35.

.Mother's Day... Mostly sunny. High 50 to 55.

Normal temperatures for Today

High: 60
Low: 38

Sunrise Thursday: 5:41 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday: 8:30 PM CDT

Tim

Birds are singing, sky looks a little thundery Today-yep it's Spring.

2013-05-07T15:06:00.001-07:00

/Issued 4:17 PM CDT, Tuesday, May 7th, 2013/

*Here's Wednesday's Thunderstorm outlook from the NWS Storm Prediction Center.

Green=A risk for non-severe thunderstorms, this includes much of Northern Minnesota and Northern Wisconsin. Probably won't have any t'storms in Duluth Tomorrow, probably just rain showers.

-Rainfall forecast for Wednesday. Much of Minnesota can expect anywhere from 0.10"-0.50" of rain Tomorrow. (Source, Weather Prediction Center)

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

It doesn't get much better than this for early May. High temperatures climbed into the 70s over most of our area Today which is 10-20 degrees warmer than average. The usual cool spot was closer to Lake Superior where temperatures only made it into the 40s and 50s Today. Skies were partly to mostly sunny and winds were from the south or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Weather Tidbits:

*The first 70 degree or warmer high temperature of May and of 2013 occurred yesterday, May 6 at Duluth, Minnesota.

*Today made it back to back days with a high temperature of 70F or warmer at Duluth, Minnesota (May 6-7) The last time this happened was back on September 10-11, 2012.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence: High.

Tonight (May 7th)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found over our area with patchy fog possible. Isolated showers may also develop This Evening, mainly over Western sections, or from Brainerd to Cass Lake to Bigfork. Lows will be in the 40s to lower 50s with 30s closer to Lake Superior. South or east winds will continue at 5 to 15 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night (May 8th)

An area of low pressure along with a cold front will sag southeast across the Northland during this period. This front will cause showers and isolated thunderstorms in our area with no severe weather expected due to minimal instability and weak winds aloft. Still could see some heavy downpours in spots Tomorrow Afternoon/Evening, also lightning will be a threat with any thunderstorm so remember when thunder roars get indoors!

Mostly cloudy skies are forecast this period with highs in the 60s to lower 70s with 40s near Lake Superior. Lows Tomorrow Night will mainly be in the 40s. South, east, or north winds can be expected during this period at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence: High.

Thursday through Saturday (May 9th-11th)

A few showers might linger into Thursday primarily from Eastern Minnesota into Northern Wisconsin. Looks mainly dry across Northern Minnesota. Dry weather is then expected area-wide Thursday Night into Friday. A risk for rain or snow showers Friday Night and Saturday as a strong cold front blasts through the Northland with deep low pressure moving through Ontario.

High temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s for Thursday and Friday, but a few spots on Friday could climb into the 60s. Lows Thursday Night and Friday Night will be in the 30s and 40s.

The fishing opener on Saturday still doesn't look very nice, but I'm sure the fishermen/women area use to a not so nice opener here in Minnesota. High temperatures will likely hold in the 40s in much of Minnesota, some locations in the North may even stay in the 30s! A northwest chop is also forecast with wind speeds of 10-25 mph with gusts possibly exceeding 30 mph.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence: High.

(May 12th-15th)

A cool but dry Mother's Day is expected in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with strong high pressure centered over the Upper Midwest. This high exits to our south/east early next week with a southerly flow developing as low pressure approaches from the west. This system could bring some showers or thunderstorms to the region sometime around the 14th-15th.

Below average temperatures on the 12th. Near to above average temperatures from the 13th-15th.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-Flood update
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

*FLOOD WARNING*

Location: The Mississippi River at Aitkin affecting Aitkin County.

Stage as of 3:30 PM CDT Tuesday: 13.3 feet.

Flood stage: 12.0 feet.

Forecast: Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast. River levels remaining around 13.3 feet through Wednesday and then slowly falling. A more rapid fall is forecast this weekend, dropping below flood stage next Tuesday, May 14th.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

*FLOOD WARNING*

Location: The Mississippi River near Fort Ripley affecting Morrison and Crow Wing County.

Stage as of 3:00 PM CDT Tuesday: 9.9 feet.

Flood stage: 10.0 feet.

Forecast: Near flood stage Tonight, dropping below flood stage the rest of the week. Note: The flood warning will likely be cancelled within the next 24 hours.

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5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 40 to 45 and in the 30s closer to Lake Superior. Wind east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday... Mostly cloudy. Scattered Afternoon showers. High 60 to 65 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind light and variable around 12 mph.

.Wednesday Night... Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Low 40 to 45. Wind north to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday... Partly sunny. High 50 to 55 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 30 to 35.

.Friday... Partly cloudy. High 55 to 60 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Friday Night... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible late. Low 30 to 35.

.Saturday... Windy. Partly sunny. Morning showers possible. High 42 to 47. Northwest winds could occasionally gust to 25 mph.

Normal temperatures for Today

High: 60
Low: 38

Sunrise Wednesday: 5:43 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday: 8:28 PM CDT

Tim

No more snow events (>1") until next fall! Tuesday will be a nice one! Showers, isolated t'storms Wednesday.

2013-05-06T14:52:00.001-07:00

/Issued 4:04 PM CDT, Monday, May 6th, 2013/

-Here's the water temperatures over the Southwest part of Lake Superior as of May 6, 2013. Duluth/Superior Harbor sitting right around 40F.

(Source, Michigan Sea Grant Coastwatch)

Weather Tidbits:

*No surprise here that May is off to a cold start in the Twin Ports. The average monthly temperature thru the 5th was 37.0F which is 10.4 degrees colder than normal. A very impressive temperature deficit so far this month.

*13 days at or above 60F by this time year at Duluth, MN compared to just 6 days in 2013. Last year by the end of May we already had 33 days at or above 60 degrees.

-Flood update
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

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*FLOOD WARNING*

Location: The Mississippi River at Aitkin affecting Aitkin County.

Stage as of 2:30 PM CDT Monday: 13.3 feet.

Flood stage: 12.0 feet.

Forecast: Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast. River levels remaining around 13.3 feet before falling later this week, but remaining in minor flood stage through next Monday, May 13th.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

*FLOOD WARNING*

Location: The Mississippi River near Fort Ripley affecting Morrison and Crow Wing County.

Stage as of 2:00 PM CDT Monday: 10.0 feet.

Flood stage: 10.0 feet.

Forecast: Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast. River levels may rise to around 10.1 feet Tonight and Tuesday before falling below flood stage on Wednesday, May 8th.

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Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

We deserve weather like this! A very nice spring day in much of the Northland under sunny to partly cloudy skies. Above average high temperatures in the 60s and 70s were common Today with cooler 40s and 50s closer to Lake Superior. Winds were light and variable around 10 mph.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence: High.

Tonight (May 6th)

High pressure over the Upper Midwest will result in clear to partly cloudy skies in our area Tonight with patchy fog developing later in the night. Lows will mainly be in the 40s with some 30s in the traditional chilly spots. Light and variable winds will continue at around 10 mph.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night (May 7th)

Patchy fog will burn off before 9 AM, otherwise expect partly to mostly cloudy skies this period. Isolated showers or thunderstorms may develop Tomorrow Afternoon and Evening but the majority of us should stay dry. Highs Tomorrow will be similar to Today with 60s and 70s except for cooler temps closer to Lake Superior. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 40s to around 50 degrees. South or east winds are expected at 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence: High.

Wednesday through Friday (May 8th-10th)

A cold front is forecast to move through our area on Wednesday. Weak instability and some moisture building near this front should allow for the development of showers and isolated thunderstorms in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Wednesday and Wednesday Night. No severe weather is expected though with just minimal amounts of instability (CAPE <500 0c="" all="" aloft.="" aloft="" and="" around="" be="" could="" develop="" do="" down="" downpours="" especially="" heavy="" in="" indices="" j="" kg="" lifted="" locally="" look="" moving="" of="" out="" p="" plus="" pulse="" quickly="" rain="" shouldn="" since="" so="" some="" speaking="" spots="" storms="" t="" tend="" that="" the="" themselves="" there="" these="" to="" up="" very="" weak="" will="" winds="" with="">
Thursday and Friday look generally dry at the moment with another chance for showers coming Friday Night as a strong cold front swoops in from the northwest.

High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the 50s and 60s. Highs Thursday and Friday will be in the 40s and 50s, a few spots might get into the low 60s though on Friday. It will be cooler near Lake Superior Wednesday and Thursday.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence: High.

(May 11th-15th)

Still looks like a chilly Saturday for the Minnesota fishing opener, a few showers of rain and snow are also possible especially in far Northern Minnesota. Mother's Day (12th) looks dry and seasonably cool. A potential pattern change for next week as the long range models are showing either a west to east (zonal flow) or a southwest flow developing over the U.S. This may lead to a real nice warmup over a large chunk of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.

Below average temperatures on the 11th and 12th. Near to above average temperatures from the 13th-15th.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... Mostly clear. Patchy fog possible late. Low 36 to 41. Wind light and variable around 10 mph.

.Tuesday... Patchy fog possible before 8 AM. Partly to mostly sunny. High 63 to 68 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 40 to 45. Wind southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday... Occasional showers developing. High 55 to 60 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Wednesday Night... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. Low 40 to 45.

.Thursday... Partly sunny. High 50 to 55 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 32 to 37.

.Friday... Partly cloudy. High 55 to 60.

Normal temperatures for Today

High: 59
Low: 38

Sunrise Tuesday: 5:44 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday: 8:27 PM CDT

Tim

Patchy fog Tonight; 60s and a few 70s Monday-Tuesday; Showers mid-week; A cold/windy MN fishing opener.

2013-05-05T17:17:00.002-07:00

/Issued 6:26 PM CDT, Sunday, May 5th, 2013/

*A very cold airmass plows into Minnesota just in time for the fishing opener this coming Saturday. The map below is the 850mb temperature forecast for Saturday AM, May 11th 2013 per 12z ECMWF.

The white line is the 0C 850mb temperature contour. The darker the blue, the colder it is. Much of Central/Northern Minnesota is forecast to have temperatures at around 5,000 feet of around -6C this could lead to daytime highs on Saturday struggling to get out of the 40s, maybe even the 30s over Northern MN...This would be 20 to even 30 degrees colder than it should be for May 11th.

*Also looks rather windy on Saturday, May 11th with 850mb wind speeds of 35-45 knots. Could see NW winds near the surface gusting to 20-30 mph. BRRRR!!!!!!

(Source, 12z ECMWF)

Temperature report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

April 28-May 4, 2013:

Highs:

4/28: 68F/12 degrees above average
4/29: 61F/5 degrees above average
4/30: 67F/10 degrees above average
5/1: 49F/8 degrees below average
5/2: 44F/14 degrees below average
5/3: 36F/22 degrees below average
5/4: 37F/21 degrees below average

Lows:

4/28: 44F/9 degrees above average
4/29: 40F/4 degrees above average
4/30: 39F/3 degrees above average
5/1: 34F/2 degrees below average
5/2: 29F/8 degrees below average
5/3: 27F/10 degrees below average
5/4: 31F/6 degrees below average

Total precipitation for April 28-May 4, 2013: 0.63"
Average: 0.70"
Departure: -0.07"

*4/28-5/4/2013 temperature departure map. Warm stuff was centered over Michigan last week where temperatures were 9-12 degrees warmer than normal. Much colder farther west from Minnesota-south through the Central Plains.

(Source, MRCC)

*4/28-5/4/2013 precipitation departure map. Areas from Southern Minnesota through Northern Wisconsin and Western Upper Michigan had precip totals that were 200-400% above what would typically fall during last week, amazing!

-Flood Update
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

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*FLOOD WARNING*

Location: The Mississippi River at Aitkin affecting Aitkin County.

Stage as of 5:30 PM CDT Sunday: 13.2 feet.

Flood stage: 12.0 feet.

Forecast: Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast. River levels remaining around 13.2 feet through Tuesday before slowly falling, but remaining in minor flood stage through Sunday, May 12.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

*FLOOD WARNING*

Location: The Mississippi River near Fort Ripley affecting Morrison and Crow Wing County.

Stage as of 5:00 PM CDT Sunday: 10.2 feet.

Flood stage: 10.0 feet.

Forecast: Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast. River levels remaining around 10.2 feet before falling below flood stage on Tuesday or Wednesday, May 7-8.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

*FLOOD WARNING*

Location: The Prairie River near Taconite affecting Itasca County.

Stage as of 5:45 PM CDT Sunday: 9.9 feet.

Flood stage: 10.0 feet.

Forecast: Near flood stage Tonight and then falling below flood stage on Monday, May 6.

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Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

High pressure ridge of 1023-1024mb stretched from the Northern Plains to Hudson Bay Today. The weather finally improved in our area as we close out the weekend. Most of us saw increasing amounts of sunshine as the day wore on with milder high temperatures which were in the 50s and 60s but it was cooler near Lake Superior and in areas that saw more clouds throughout the day, temperatures in those areas were generally in the 40s. Winds were out of the north or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence: High.

Tonight (May 5th)

High pressure will be over the Upper Midwest Tonight resulting in partly to mostly cloudy skies. Could be some patchy fog that develops during the night. Lows will be in the 30s and 40s with light and variable winds around 10 mph.

Monday and Monday Night (May 6th)

High pressure dominates this period with any patchy fog burning off before 9 AM. Otherwise expect partly to mostly cloudy skies with highs Tomorrow in the 60s and 70s but it will be cooler near Lake Superior. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 30s and 40s. Light and variable winds continue at 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence: High.

Tuesday through Thursday (May 7th-9th)

Isolated showers could develop on Tuesday, but there is a better chance for showers and possibly a few thunderstorms on Wednesday as a cold front drops southeast through our area. Thursday looks dry at this time as a frontal boundary stalls to our south with high pressure to our north. Any rain on Thursday looks like it'll be in Southern Minnesota. Highs on Tuesday will be in the 60s and 70s. Wednesday's highs will be mainly in the 60s. Highs on Thursday will be in the 50s to lower 60s. It will be cooler each day near Lake Superior. Low temperatures Tuesday Night and Wednesday Night will be in the 40s to lower 50s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence: Medium.

(May 10th-14th)

Dry this coming Friday (10th) A fairly strong cold front is forecast to move through the Northland Friday Night/Saturday bringing with it a few showers of rain or snow. Dry weather returns for Mother's Day (12th) and continues through the 13th-14th the way it looks now.

Looks rather chilly for the Minnesota fishing opener this coming Saturday, May 11th. And patchy frost looks like a good bet for Saturday Night.

Below average temperatures from the 10th-12th. May see a decent warmup on the 13th-14th with temperatures going above average? Will see...

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... Partly cloudy. Patchy fog possible late. Low 35 to 40. Wind light and variable around 10 mph.

.Monday... Patchy fog possible before 9 AM. Otherwise partly to mostly sunny. High 62 to 67 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind light and variable around 12 mph.

.Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 38 to 43. Wind light and variable around 10 mph.

.Tuesday... Partly sunny. High 62 to 67 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Tuesday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 40 to 45.

.Wednesday... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 55 to 60 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Wednesday Night... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. Low 40 to 45.

.Thursday... Partly sunny. High 50 to 55 but cooler near Lake Superior.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High: 59
Low: 38

Sunrise Monday: 5:45 AM CDT
Sunset Monday: 8:25 PM CDT

Tim

Clouds, drizzle, and possible fog Tonight; Warms up a bit (away from Lake Superior) on Sunday; 60s and 70s early next week.

2013-05-04T15:01:00.002-07:00

/Issued 4:25 PM CDT, Saturday, May 4th, 2013/

-Flood update
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

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*FLOOD WARNING*

Location: The Prairie River near Taconite affecting Itasca County.

Stage as of 2:45 PM CDT Saturday: 9.9 feet.

Forecast: Minor flooding is forecast with the river rising to 10.0 feet through Sunday Morning before dropping below flood stage Sunday Afternoon or Monday.

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*FLOOD WARNING*

Location: The Mississippi River at Aitkin affecting Aitkin County.

Stage as of 2:30 PM CDT Saturday: 13.1 feet.

Flood stage: 12.0 feet.

Forecast: Minor flooding is forecast with the river rising to 13.3 feet next Wednesday or Thursday, May 8-9. Minor flooding is expected to continue through next Saturday, May 11.

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*FLOOD WARNING*

Location: The Mississippi River near Fort Ripley affecting Morrison and Crow Wing County.

Stage as of 2:00 PM CDT Saturday: 10.4 feet.

Flood stage: 10.0 feet.

Forecast: Minor flooding is forecast with the river remaining around 10.4 feet until next Tuesday or Wednesday, May 7-8 when it drops below flood stage.

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Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A stationary front stretching from Northern Illinois to Eastern Ontario and a surface and upper level low over Missouri and Arkansas continued to bring plenty of clouds and some moisture to parts of the Northland Today. A mix of sleet, snow, rain and freezing rain was common last night and This Morning, but surface temperatures did warm enough to change everything over to drizzle and rain before Noon. There was also some patchy fog around Today. Highs were in the middle 30s to around 40 degrees with 50s over in Price County Wisconsin. Winds were out of the north or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence: High.

Tonight (May 4th)

Occasional light rain will become less common through the night, but patchy fog and drizzle should continue through the entire night. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast with lows mainly in the 30s. Winds will be out of the north or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Sunday and Sunday Night (May 5th)

Patchy fog and drizzle should dissipate Sunday Morning, otherwise expect partly to mostly cloudy skies with isolated showers possible on Sunday. Highs will be in the 40s and 50s with lows mainly in the 30s. North or east winds will continue at 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence: High.

Monday through Wednesday (May 6th-8th)

The weather pattern remains highly amplified through the middle of next week, stronger winds aloft confined to Canada and the Southern U.S. while weak winds aloft cover much of the rest of the U.S. Several upper level lows will also continue to cover parts of the U.S., basically it's a slow motion weather pattern.

Although isolated showers cannot be ruled out next Monday-Tuesday, I think the majority of the Northland will be dry on those 2 days. May see a somewhat greater risk for showers next Wednesday as a cold front approaches from the NW while low pressure develops over the Plains.

High temperatures are forecast to be in the 60s Monday through Wednesday, a few 70s are even possible. It will be cooler near Lake Superior. Lows Monday Night and Tuesday Night will be in the 40s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence: Medium.

(May 9th-13th)

Showers are possible next Thursday (9th) Another chance for showers for next Saturday (11th) Doesn't look like any major systems affecting the Northland through this period. Near to below average temperatures will continue.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog and drizzle. A few showers This Evening. Low 33 to 37. Wind northeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday... Partly to mostly cloudy. High 47 to 52 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 35 to 40. Wind light and variable around 10 mph.

.Monday... Partly sunny. High 60 to 65 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 37 to 42.

.Tuesday... Partly sunny. High 60 to 65 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 40 to 45.

.Wednesday... Showers possible. High 55 to 60.

Normal temperatures for Today

High: 58
Low: 37

Sunrise Sunday: 5:47 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday: 8:24 PM CDT

Tim

The weather Tonight and Saturday will be (I'll let you fill in the blank-I have my word, but have to keep it PG) ________ NWS snowfall map included in this post and the latest flood/winter weather headlines.

2013-05-03T15:05:00.000-07:00

/Issued 3:56 PM CDT, Friday, May 3rd, 2013/

Friday funny! (Source, Paul Douglas. St. Cloud Times)

-NWS hazards map.

Purple=Winter Weather Advisory.
Green=Flood Warning.

Latest flood and winter weather headline information
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

Location: Parts of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Timing: Until 5 AM CDT Saturday.

Counties included in the advisory:

Cook MN
Lake MN

Bayfield WI
Ashland WI
Iron WI
Washburn WI
Sawyer WI

Some cities included in the advisory:

Grand Marais...Lutsen...Silver Bay...Finland...Isabella...Two Harbors...Port Wing...Washburn...Bayfield...Drummond...Cable...Ashland...Mellen...Clam Lake...High Bridge...Gile...Upson...Hurley...Minong...Spooner...Shell Lake...Trego...Hayward...Exeland...and Winter.

Discussion: Periods of light snow, sleet and freezing rain will continue through early Saturday Morning.

Snow and ice accumulations: Snowfall accumulations of around 1-2" are possible with ice accumulations generally in the .10-.20" range.

Impacts: Some roads could become slippery at times Tonight into early Saturday Morning. Use extreme caution if you have travel plans and allow extra time to reach your destination.

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*FLOOD WARNING*

Location: The Mississippi River at Aitkin affecting Aitkin County.

Stage as of 2:30 PM CDT Friday: 12.9 feet.

Flood stage: 12.0 feet

Forecast: Minor flooding is forecast. Rising to a stage of 13.0 feet through Saturday, falling a bit thereafter but remaining in minor flood stage through next Friday, May 10th.

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*FLOOD WARNING*

Location: The Mississippi River near Fort Ripley affecting Morrison and Crow Wing County.

Stage as of 2:00 PM CDT Friday: 10.4 feet.

Flood stage: 10.0 feet.

Forecast: Minor flooding is forecast. Nearly steady stage around 10.4 feet before falling below flood stage early next week, during the Monday/Tuesday time period (May 6-7)

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*FLOOD WARNING*

Location: Southern St. Louis County in Northeast Minnesota

Timing: Until 11:00 AM CDT Saturday.

Discussion: Local Law Enforcement and Public County Work Officials reported roads closed across Central and Southern St. Louis County due to the runoff from the recent snowmelt across the warned area.

Some locations that will experience flooding include: Hibbing...Adolph...Alborn...Arnold...Aurora...Biwabik...Brookston...Buhl...Burnett...Canyon...Cherry...
Chisholm...Cotton...Culver...Elmer...Eveleth...Floodwood...Franklin...Fredenberg...Gilbert...Gowan...
Hermantown...Hoyt Lakes...Independence...Iron Junction...Kelly Lake...Kelsey...Kinney...
Lakewood Township...and Leetonia...

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*FLOOD WARNING*

Location: Ashland County in Northwest Wisconsin

Timing: Until 2:30 PM CDT Saturday.

Discussion: Area streams were at bankfull prompting closures of some roads in the advisory area including the township of Jacob in the town of Glidden per reports from local officials.

Some locations that will experience flooding include: Ashland...Glidden...High Bridge...Marengo...Mellen...Morse...Odanah...and Sanborn.

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*FLOOD WARNING*

Location: Iron County in Northwest Wisconsin.

Timing: Until 10:00 AM CDT Saturday.

Discussion: Area streams were at bankfull prompting closures of some roads in the advisory area per reports from local officials.

Some locations that will experience flooding include: Gile...Hurley...Iron Belt...Montreal...Kimball...Manitowish...Mercer...Pence...Saxon...Town of Oma...and Upson.

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Note: The Prairie River above Taconite, MN in Itasca County is near flood stage Friday Afternoon. The stage as of 2:45 PM CDT Friday was at 9.7 feet. Flood stage is 10.0 feet. The stage is forecast to rise to around 9.9 feet through Saturday before falling.

-Here's a chart showing the present tornado drought that is occurring in the U.S. so far in 2013.

Green represents the month by month tornado counts in 2013.
Red is the 1981-2010 average.

Source: Climate Central via Paul Douglas, St. Cloud Times blog.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

An all out crappy spring day throughout the Northland with unseasonably cold temperatures area-wide along with some more snow and even some sleet and freezing rain affecting parts of Northwest Wisconsin as well as far Eastern and Northeast Minnesota. Highs Today were only in the 30s and 40s which is around 20 degrees or more colder than average for early May. Winds were out of the north or east at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts around Lake Superior.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence: High.

Tonight (May 3rd)

Mostly cloudy skies are forecast with occasional snow, sleet, freezing rain, and some rain affecting most of the Northland during the night as a strong cut-off low well to our south along with a frontal boundary to our southeast continue to pump some moisture NW into the Upper Midwest. Lows will be in the 20s and 30s with north or east winds at 5 to around 20 mph.

-Precipitation forecast through 7 AM Saturday per 18z RAP model. Most of NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin can expect a quarter inch or less of precipitation Tonight.

Saturday and Saturday Night (May 4th)

Mostly cloudy skies continue this period with some additional precipitation expected. Temperatures will be warm enough aloft and will warm enough at the surface allowing for the precipitation to fall as drizzle and rain in our area during this period, however, there still could be some pockets of sleet, snow and freezing rain through Saturday Morning in parts of our area. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Tomorrow Night mainly in the 30s. Winds will be out of the north or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence: High.

Sunday through Tuesday (May 5th-7th)

The weather should improve on Sunday with mainly dry conditions expected with highs in the 50s and 60s but it will be cooler near Lake Superior. Early next week also looks dry at this time with highs in the 50s and 60s, a few spots might even get into the lower 70s, but once again it will be cooler near Lake Superior.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence: High.

(May 8th-12th)

A risk for some showers for next Wednesday/Thursday (8th-9th) And again next Saturday (11th) Near to below average temperatures persist through this period.

*Here's the total snowfall map from the record breaking snowstorm that hit parts of Northwest Wisconsin on May 2, 2013. Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... Occasional light snow, light rain, and drizzle. Some sleet also possible. Light freezing rain is also possible Inland from Lake Superior. Patchy fog. Low 30 to 33. Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday... Occasional light rain and drizzle. Some snow, sleet or freezing rain possible mainly before 10 AM. Patchy fog. High 36 to 41. Wind northeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday Night... Considerable cloudiness. Low 35 to 40. Wind northeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday... Partly to mostly cloudy. High 50 to 55 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 35 to 40.

.Monday... Partly sunny. High 55 to 60 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 37 to 42.

.Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 60 to 65 but cooler near Lake Superior.

Normal temperatures for Today

High: 58
Low: 37

Sunrise Saturday: 5:48 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday: 8:23 PM CDT

Tim

Cool temperatures linger into Saturday; More snow and possible freezing rain in parts of NW Wisconsin Tonight.

2013-05-02T16:33:00.001-07:00

/Issued 4:38 PM CDT, Thursday, May 2nd, 2013/

A major winter storm hit parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin Today. Here are some tidbits from Today's storm.

*All-time state snowfall records for the month of May in 3 states Today, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa. This is preliminary and the totals need to be verified before they are official records.

Blooming Prairie, Minnesota (just north of Austin) 18.0"
Rice Lake, Wisconsin: 17.0"
Britt and Forest Center, Iowa: 11.0"

*At one point Today, 26,000 Xcel Energy customers were without power in Southern Minnesota and Western Wisconsin because of the heavy wet snow.

Weather Tidbits:
Source: Twitter. @RyanMaue; @weatherchannel; @NWSChicago

-Record low at Denver Colorado Today. The Morning low (May 2, 2013) was 17F which breaks the previous record of 22 degrees.

-7 U.S. tornado deaths from May 2012 through April 2013. This is the fewest tornado deaths in a 12 month period since September 1899 through August 1900 which had 5 tornado deaths.

-April 2013 was the wettest on record at Chicago, Illinois and the 3rd wettest on record at Rockford, Illinois.

-April 2013 in the CONUS was the coldest since April 1997 and the 3rd coldest since 1979. April 2013 was about 5 degrees colder than average of the last 10 years.

-Average U.S. temperature in April 2013 was 47.4F. April 2012, 54.3F.

-So far this year there have been 3 killer tornadoes in the U.S. (3 deaths) In 2011 through April 29th, 45 killer tornadoes (365 deaths)

*Drought Update as of April 30, 2013*
Source: Climate Prediction Center

Minnesota:

*46% of the state is in Moderate Drought which is down from 51% last week.
*15% of the state is in Severe Drought which is down from 16% last week.

Note: 9% of the Gopher state is now drought-free.

Wisconsin:

*12% of the state is in Moderate Drought.

Note: 73% of the Badger state is drought-free.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Another history making snowstorm in spring! Calendar says it's the 2nd day of May, but winter is still going strong. A monster winter storm slammed parts of Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin last night and Today with incredible amounts of snow. In our local area, Northwest Wisconsin was hit hard with anywhere from 6-18" of wet heavy snow with tree and power line damage reported. Farther west in Northern Minnesota not a flake was seen. Highs Today were well below average for early May with 30s and lower 40s in our area. Winds were out of the north at 10 to 20 mph and skies were overcast to partly sunny.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term - Confidence: High.

Tonight (May 2nd)

A cold front and a developing upper level low will be centered well south/east of the Northland but moisture flowing SE-NW will result in more snow or mixed snow, sleet and freezing rain Tonight in Northwest Wisconsin while it remains dry in Northern Minnesota. Lows Tonight will be in the teens to lower 30s with north or northeast winds at 5 to 15 mph.

Note:

*Winter Storm Warning* is now in effect until 11 AM CDT Friday for Bayfield, Ashland, Iron, Sawyer and Price Counties in Northwest Wisconsin. Additional snowfall accumulations Tonight and Friday AM of 1-4" are possible.

*Winter Weather Advisory* is in effect for Washburn County in Northwest Wisconsin until 11 AM CDT Friday.

*Winter Weather Advisory* continues until 7 PM CDT Tonight for Southern Cook County in Northeast Minnesota.

Friday and Friday Night (May 3rd)

A strong cut-off low will be centered over the Central Plains with high pressure off to our north. Mostly cloudy skies are expected this period with snow and rain affecting Northwest Wisconsin on Friday. Enough warming should take place for mostly rain showers Friday Night in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 30s and 40s. Lows Tomorrow Night mainly in the 30s. North or east winds are expected this period at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence: High.

Saturday through Monday (May 4th-6th)

Rain showers are possible at times on Saturday with a lesser chance for them on Sunday. Monday is looking dry at this time. Highs will be in the 30s and 40s on Saturday. 50s and 60s Sunday and Monday although it will be cooler near Lake Superior. Lows Saturday Night and Sunday Night will be in the 30s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence: High.

(May 7th-11th)

Mainly dry for next Tuesday/Wednesday (7th-8th) A new system may bring some rain to the Upper Midwest between the 9th-10th. Near to below average temperatures are forecast through this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 28 to 33. Wind northeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday... Mostly cloudy. High 35 to 40. Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday Night... Occasional showers possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 33 to 35. Wind east to northeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday... Occasional showers possible. Mostly cloudy. High40 to 45.

.Saturday Night... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. Low 30 to 35.

.Sunday... Partly sunny. High 50 to 55 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 30 to 35.

.Monday... Partly sunny. High 55 to 60 but cooler near Lake Superior.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High: 58
Low: 37

Sunrise Friday: 5:50 AM CDT
Sunset Friday: 8:21 PM CDT

Tim

Flood warnings remain in effect over parts of the Northland.

2013-05-02T11:47:00.001-07:00

/Issued 1:24 PM CDT, Thursday, May 2nd, 2013/

-Areas in green continue to be under flood warnings.

-Flood headlines continue in parts of the Northland.
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

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*FLOOD WARNING*

Location: Iron County in Northwest Wisconsin.

Timing: Until 10:00 AM CDT Saturday.

Discussion: As of 10:57 AM Today local officials indicate area streams were at bankfull and rising prompting closures of some roadways in the advisory area.

Some locations that will experience flooding include:

Gile...Hurley...Iron Belt...Kimball...Manitowish...Mercer...Montreal...Pence...Saxon...and Upson.

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*FLOOD WARNING*

Location: The Mississippi River at Aitkin affecting Aitkin County.

Stage as of 11:30 AM CDT Thursday: 12.7 feet.

Flood stage: 12.0 feet.

Forecast: Minor flooding is expected. Rising to a stage of 13.1 feet through Friday. Slowly falling thereafter, but remaining in minor flood stage through next Thursday, May 9th.

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*FLOOD WARNING*

Location: The Mississippi River near Fort Ripley affecting Morrison and Crow Wing County.

Stage as of 11:00 AM CDT Thursday: 10.2 feet.

Flood stage: 10.0 feet.

Forecast: Minor flooding is expected. Rising to a stage of 10.3 feet by Friday Morning. Remaining in minor flood stage through this weekend and early next week.

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*FLOOD WARNING*

Location: Southern St. Louis County in Northeast Minnesota.

Timing: Until 11:30 AM CDT Friday.

Discussion: Local Law Enforcement and County Public Works Officials reported roads closed across Central and Southern St. Louis County due to the runoff from the recent snowmelt across the warned area.

Some locations that will experience flooding include:

Hibbing...Southern Angora Township...Willow Valley Township...Alden Township...Portage Township....Rice Lake Township...Grand Lake Township...Morcom Township...Beatty Township...Britt...Normanna Township...Solway Township...and Cotton.

Winter Storm Warning continues for parts of NW Wisconsin-headlines may be extended past 7 PM Tonight; Snowfall report in this post.

2013-05-02T11:20:00.002-07:00

/Issued 1:01 PM CDT, Thursday, May 2nd, 2013/

-NWS hazards map.

Pink=Winter Storm Warning.
Purple=Winter Weather Advisory.

-Incredible early May snowstorm hitting Northwest Wisconsin.

-Winter storm headlines remain in effect through early This Evening, however, these headlines may be extended through Tonight. Stay tuned.

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*WINTER STORM WARNING*
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Location: Most of Northwest Wisconsin.

Timing: Until 7 PM CDT This Evening.

Counties included in the warning:

Bayfield WI
Ashland WI
Iron WI
Washburn WI
Sawyer WI
Price WI

Some cities included in the warning:

Port Wing...Washburn...Bayfield...Drummond...Ashland...High Bridge...Clam Lake...Butternut...Gile...Upson...Hurley...Minong...Spooner...Shell Lake...Trego...Hayward...Winter...Exeland...Park Falls...Phillips...and Ogema.

Discussion: Occasional light snow will linger This Afternoon along and east of a line from Shell Lake to Ashland. Some bursts of heavier snow could continue, mainly from Winter and Mellen to Hurley, Park Falls and Phillips.

Additional snowfall accumulations through 7 PM Today: 1-3".

Total storm accumulations: 6-18".

Impacts: This is an incredible winter storm for early May. The damage has already been done with heavy wet snow caking the trees and power lines which has led to tree and power line damage in parts of the warned area. Some roads will remain very slippery. Visibilities could fall to one mile or less at times This Afternoon due to the snow. Additional snow or some freezing rain is possible Tonight and the winter storm warning may need to be extended past 7 PM for some parts of Northwest Wisconsin.

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*Snowfall report through 1 PM CDT Thursday, May 2nd, 2013*
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Ashland, WI (Ashland County) 16.2"
8 S of Hayward, WI (Sawyer County) 15.0"
2 W of Hayward, WI (Sawyer County) 14.5"
Seeley, WI (Sawyer County) 14.2"
Grand View, WI (Bayfield County) 14.0"
5 NW of New Post, WI (Sawyer County) 11.0"
Spooner, WI (Washburn County) 10.0"
Hurley, WI (Iron County) 6.0"
Park Falls, WI (Price County) 6.5"
Hertel, WI (Burnett County) 5.5"
6 N of Prentice, WI (Price County) 4.5"
Gordon, WI (Douglas County) 3.5"
Ogema, WI (Price County) 3.0"

Tim

Things are looking up! Heaviest snow late Tonight-Thursday NW Wisconsin; Little to no precip in Duluth; Might be able to pull the rain from the Fri-Sun forecast as well, stay tuned!

2013-05-01T17:45:00.001-07:00

/Issued 7:12 PM CDT, Wednesday, May 1st, 2013/

April 2013 climate summaries for select cities in Minnesota.

International Falls:

Average monthly temperature: 31.2F
Departure: -8.1 degrees

Total precipitation: 1.87"
Departure: +0.34"

Total snowfall: 13.6"
Departure: +7.2"

Twin Cities:

Average monthly temperature: 41.0F
Departure: -6.5 degrees

Total precipitation: 5.22"
Departure: +2.56"

Total snowfall: 17.9"
Departure: +15.5"

St. Cloud:

Average monthly temperature: 36.2F
Departure: -8.3 degrees

Total precipitation: 2.90"
Departure: +0.33"

Total snowfall: 24.4"
Departure: +21.4"

Duluth:

Average monthly temperature: 34.4F
Departure: -5.2 degrees

Total precipitation: 5.04"
Departure: +2.61"

Total snowfall: 50.8"
Departure: +43.9"

Weather Tidbits:

*The period from March 21-April 30, 2013 has been the coldest since 1984. The average temperature during that period over the CONUS was 46.7 degrees. (Source, @RyanMaue)

*So far this year this has been the 9th coldest since 1979 in the CONUS. 2013 is on par with 1983, 1997, and 2011. (Source, @RyanMaue)

May climate data for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

Average temperature: 51.4 degrees
Average precipitation: 3.23"
Average snowfall: 0.4"

Sunrise on the 1st: 5:53 AM CDT
Sunrise on the 31st: 5:19 AM CDT

Sunset on the 1st: 8:19 PM CDT
Sunset on the 31st: 8:54 PM CDT

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

What a change! The cold air has moved back into the Northland after a couple days of mild temperatures. Highs Today were in the 30s and 40s, below average as we start the month of May. Skies were partly sunny to mostly cloudy and there's been some rain and snow at times in Northwest Wisconsin. Winds Today were out of the north or west at 10 to 20 mph.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term - Confidence: Medium.

Tonight (May 1st)

A cold front will be centered well to our southeast with strong high pressure to our west/northwest. Snow will fly Tonight in Northwest Wisconsin with bands of heavy snow expected especially after Midnight. Prior to Midnight there could be a rain/snow mix in parts of Northwest Wisconsin. Elsewhere expect some snow showers in far Eastern and far Northeast Minnesota with dry conditions over Northern Minnesota. Mostly cloudy skies are forecast Tonight with lows in the 20s and 30s. Winds will be out of the north or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night (May 2nd)

Similar pattern as to what is in place Tonight. Cold front to our SE and high pressure to our west/north. Snow or mixed snow and rain will continue in Northwest Wisconsin and far Northeast Minnesota. Some of the snow could be heavy at times in Northwest Wisconsin, mainly during the Morning hours. Should stay dry across Northern Minnesota through this period. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 20s and 30s. North, northwest or east winds are expected at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence: Low.

Friday through Sunday (May 3rd-5th)

A large upper level trough and cutoff low will cover the Central Plains, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes during this period. Bands of rain will push west/north out of the Central Plains but it remains to be seen if any of this rain will affect Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin as the various computer models are offering different solutions. A few are very wet, others are mostly dry. Stay tuned!

Temperatures aloft and at the surface should warm just enough so that if precipitation does occur in the Northland it looks to be in the form of rain.

Highs Friday through Sunday will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Friday Night and Saturday Night mainly in the 30s.

Note: There are multiple headlines for flooding and winter weather in effect for parts of NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin. Refer to my previous posts from Today for detailed information and expected snowfall amounts for Tonight and Thursday.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence: Medium.

(May 6th-10th)

Near to below average temperatures are expected during this period. Could see some showers at times, especially during the early/mid part of next week (6th-8th)

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... Mostly cloudy. A few snow or rain showers possible late. Low 30 to 35. Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday... Considerable cloudiness. Snow or rain showers possible early. High 40 to 45. Wind north at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low 30 to 35. Wind north to northeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 40 to 45.

.Friday Night... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. Low 30 to 35.

.Saturday... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 40 to 45.

.Saturday Night... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. Low 30 to 35.

.Sunday... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 45 to 50.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High: 58
Low: 37

Sunrise Thursday: 5:52 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday: 8:21 PM CDT

Tim

Winter Storm Warnings and advisories in effect for parts of the Northland; Heaviest snow targeting NW Wisconsin; Little to no snow for the Twin Ports.

2013-05-01T14:52:00.002-07:00

/Issued 4:05 PM CDT, Wednesday, May 1st, 2013/

*Winter Weather Headline information*
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

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*WINTER STORM WARNING*

Location: Most of Northwestern Wisconsin.

Timing: 7 PM This Evening until 7 PM CDT Thursday.

Counties included in the warning:

Douglas WI
Bayfield WI
Ashland WI
Burnett WI
Washburn WI
Sawyer WI
Iron WI

Note: Iron County warning time runs from 10 PM Tonight until 7 PM CDT Thursday.

Some cities included in the warning:

Superior...Solon Springs...Port Wing...Washburn...Bayfield...Cable...Drummond...Ashland...High Bridge...Clam Lake...Butternut...Siren...Danbury...Grantsburg...Minong...Spooner...Shell Lake...Trego...Hayward...Exeland...Winter...Gile...Upson...and Hurley.

Discussion: Rain or snow will transition to all snow Tonight with snow possibly becoming heavy at times Overnight into Thursday Morning. Snowfall rates of 1-2" an hour are possible at times through Thursday Morning in parts of Northwest Wisconsin.

Total snowfall accumulations: 3-7" with locally higher amounts of 8-12" affecting a narrow corridor mainly along a Siren to Bayfield line south to Ashland, Hayward and Exeland.

Impacts: Visibilities could be reduced to one quarter mile or less in the heavier snow bands Tonight and Thursday Morning. Some roads will become snow and slush covered and very slippery especially Overnight and before Noon on Thursday. Use extreme caution if you have travel plans and be sure to allow extra time to reach your destination.

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*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

Location: Parts of Northeast and far Eastern Minnesota and a small part of Northwest Wisconsin.

-Timing: 7 PM This Evening until 7 PM CDT Thursday.

Cook County MN
Lake County MN

-Timing: 7 PM This Evening until 1 PM CDT Thursday.

Southern St. Louis County MN
Carlton County MN
Pine County MN

-Timing: 10 PM This Evening until 7 PM CDT Thursday.

Price County WI.

Some cities included in the advisory:

Grand Marais...Lutsen...Silver Bay...Finland...Isabella...Two Harbors...Duluth...Floodwood...Cloquet...Moose Lake...Hinckley...Pine City...Askov...Park Falls...Phillips...and Ogema.

Discussion: Rain or a mix of rain and snow is possible This Evening with precipitation becoming all snow later Tonight and Thursday. The greatest amounts of precipitation look to be northeast and southeast of the Twin Ports.

Total snowfall accumulations:

3-8" over Price County Wisconsin.

1-5" over Pine County Minnesota.

1-3" over Carlton, Southern St. Louis and Lake County Minnesota.

1-4" over Cook County Minnesota.

Impacts: Some roads could become snow and slush covered after Midnight Tonight through Thursday Morning in some parts of the advisory area. Use caution if you have travel plans and allow extra time to reach your destination.

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Tim

Flood Warning for Southern St. Louis County MN until 11:30 AM CDT Friday; Various flood warnings/advisories remain in effect in parts of the Northland.

2013-05-01T11:33:00.004-07:00

/Issued 1:09 PM CDT, Wednesday, May 1st, 2013/

*NWS Hazards map.

Areas in green=Flood Warning.

Note: Some Counties in Northwest Wisconsin are also under Flood Warnings or Advisories but are being covered up by the winter weather headlines which go in to effect This Evening.

*Flood Information Statement*
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

*FLOOD WARNING*

Location: Southern St. Louis County in Northeast Minnesota.

Timing: Until 11:30 AM CDT Friday.

Discussion: Local Law Enforcement and County Public Works Officials reported roads closed across Central and Southern St. Louis County due to the runoff from snowmelt across the warned area.

Some locations that will experience flooding include:

Hibbing...Adolph...Biwabik...Brookston...Buhl...Canyon...Chisholm...Cherry...Cotton...Eveleth...
Floodwood...Fredenberg...Hermantown...Hoyt Lakes...Kelly Lake...and Kinney.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small creeks and streams, county roads as well as farmland along the banks of creeks and streams.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

*FLOOD WARNING*

Location: Iron County in Northwest Wisconsin.

Timing: Until 10:00 AM CDT Saturday.

Discussion: Local Law Enforcement and Iron County Officials reported widespread flooding across the warned area. Sandbagging is occurring along the Montreal River and the Poplar Street Bridge is closed over the river.

Some locations that will experience flooding include:

Gile...Hurley...Mercer...Montreal...Saxon...and Upson.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

*FLOOD WARNING*

Location: The St. Louis River at Scanlon.

Stage as of 12:30 PM CDT Wednesday: 9.8 feet.

Flood stage: 10.5 feet.

Forecast: The river is forecast to reach a stage of 10.5 feet on Thursday and Friday. Minor flooding is expected.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

*FLOOD WARNING*

Location: The Mississippi River at Aitkin affecting Aitkin County.

Stage as of 12:30 PM CDT Wednesday: 12.4 feet.

Flood stage: 12.0 feet.

Forecast: The river is forecast to reach a stage of 13.1 feet Thursday and Friday. Minor flooding is expected through next Wednesday, May 8th.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

*FLOOD WARNING*

Location: The Mississippi River near Fort Ripley affecting Morrison and Crow Wing County.

Stage as of 12:00 PM CDT Wednesday: 10.0 feet.

Flood stage: 10.0 feet.

Forecast: The river is forecast to reach a stage of 10.2 feet on Thursday. Minor flooding is expected. The river may fall below flood stage by next Monday, May 6th.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

*FLOOD ADVISORY*

Location: Northern Ashland...Bayfield...Northern Iron...and Douglas County Wisconsin. Southeast Carlton County Minnesota.

Timing: Until 3:30 PM CDT Thursday.

Some locations that will experience minor flooding include:

-The Montreal River in Hurley.
-The Bad River Headwaters east of Mellen.
-The Bad River from Mellen to Odanah.
-The Namadji and Poplar River in Douglas County.

April 2013 climate summary for Duluth, Minnesota. Yes it was cold, wet and snowy.

2013-05-01T09:33:00.000-07:00

April 2013 climate summary for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

-Snowiest April on record.
-5th wettest April on record.
-16th coldest April on record. Details below...

Average monthly temperature: 34.4F
Average: 39.6F
Departure: -5.2 degrees

Warmest monthly high temperature: 68F on the 28th
Warmest monthly low temperature: 44F on the 28th

Coldest monthly high temperature: 31F on the 12th
Coldest monthly low temperature: 8F on the 14th

2 days with a high temperature of 32F or colder
5 days with a high temperature of at least 60F
23 days with a low temperature of 32F or colder

Total precipitation: 5.04"
Average: 2.43"
Departure: +2.61"

Heaviest daily precipitation total: 0.96" on the 18th

Number of days with at least 0.01" of precipitation: 18
Number of days with at least 0.10" of precipitation: 11
Number of days with at least 0.50" of precipitation: 3

Total snowfall: 50.8"
Average: 6.9"
Departure: +43.9"

Heaviest daily snowfall total: 11.2" on the 18th

Number of days with at least 0.1" of snow: 15
Number of days with at least 1.0" of snow: 9

Thunderstorm days: 1

April 2013 temperature departure map for the Midwest. If you wanted near normal to slightly above normal temps you had to be in the Ohio Valley, elsewhere it was a very cold month.

April 2013 precipitation departure map for the Midwest.

April 2012 climate summary for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

Average monthly temperature: 42.4F
Departure: +2.8 degrees

Total precipitation: 3.70"
Departure: +1.27"

Total snowfall: 0.6"
Departure: -6.3"

Number of days with a high temperature in the 50s: 16
Number of days with a high temperature in the 60s: 3
Number of days with a high temperature in the 70s: 1

Thunderstorm days: 3

Tim

Happy Tuesday! Winter Storm Watch southeast of Duluth for Wednesday Evening-Thursday Evening; Flooding continues in parts of the Northland as well; A gloomy 3-5 days ahead.

2013-04-30T14:50:00.003-07:00

/Issued 3:47 PM CDT, Tuesday, April 30th, 2013/

7-day precipitation forecast from the Weather Prediction Center.

This is valid through Tuesday, May 7, 2013.

Still looking at a widespread 1-4" of precipitation from Southern to Eastern Minnesota through much of Wisconsin and Upper Midwest. Lesser amounts in Western/Northern Minnesota.

Here's the Significant River Flood Outlook issued by the Weather Prediction Center.

This is valid through May 5, 2013.

*Flooding is occurring or is imminent in areas in solid red.

*The other outlined areas have the potential for significant river flooding during the next 5 days.

*WINTER STORM WATCH*
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Location:

All of Northwestern Wisconsin.

Timing:

Wednesday Evening through Thursday Evening.

Counties included in the watch:

Douglas WI
Bayfield WI
Ashland WI
Iron WI
Burnett WI
Washburn WI
Sawyer WI
Price WI

Some cities included in the watch are:

Superior...Solon Springs...Port Wing...Washburn...Bayfield...Drummond...Cable...Ashland...Clam Lake...High Bridge...Butternut...Gile...Upson...Hurley...Danbury...Grantsburg...Siren...Minong...Shell Lake...Spooner...Hayward...Exeland...Park Falls...Phillips...and Ogema.

Discussion:

An early May snow event is possible in Northwest Wisconsin from Wednesday Evening through Thursday. Rain or a mix of rain and snow can be expected on Wednesday with the precipitation becoming all snow Wednesday Night. The snow could become heavy at times Wednesday Night and Thursday Morning. Use extreme caution if you have plans to travel Wednesday Night or Thursday. Some roads may become snow and slush covered and very slippery. Slow down and allow extra time to reach your destination.

Winds and visibility:

Wind won't be much of an issue with this system, but visibilities could drop to around one quarter mile at times in the heavier snowfall.

Total snowfall accumulations:

4-8" of snow is possible in the watch area. The greatest accumulations should occur on grassy surfaces. Lesser impacts are expected on roads and sidewalks, although even those surfaces may have some accumulation on them especially late Wednesday Night into Thursday Morning.

*Local Storm Report for April 30, 2013*
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

-Grand Portage, MN (Cook County) 0.25" HAIL. 9:56 AM CDT.

-Illgen City, MN (Lake County) 0.75" HAIL. 7:41 AM CDT.

-Little Marais, MN (Lake County) 0.50" HAIL. 7:41 AM CDT.

-Illgen City, MN (Lake County) 0.25" HAIL. 7:37 AM CDT.

-Silver Bay, MN (Lake County) 1.50" HAIL. 7:35 AM CDT.

-Beaver Bay, MN (Lake County) 0.25" HAIL. 7:27 AM CDT.

-Silver Bay, MN (Lake County) 0.50" HAIL. 7:28 AM CDT.

-Two Harbors, MN (Lake County) 0.25" HAIL. 6:30 AM CDT.

-Larsmont, MN (Lake County) 0.25" HAIL. 6:30 AM CDT.

-8 ENE of Boulder Lake, MN (St. Louis County) 0.25" HAIL. 6:34 AM CDT.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Deep low pressure of 989mb was over Western Ontario as of 3 PM with a 997mb low over Western Lake Superior. A cold front was pushing into Central Wisconsin with a secondary cold front over Northwest Minnesota. Well, the 2013 thunderstorm season started off with a bang This Morning. Lots of elevated instability helped to ignite scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in Northeast Minnesota This Morning with several reports of small hail, and even 1 report of large hail (Ping Pong ball size) in Silver Bay. By This Afternoon the weather quieted down under partly to mostly cloudy skies. It was another mild day as we close out the month of April. Highs were in the 60s and 70s with 50s in Northern Minnesota and a few lower 80s in Northwest Wisconsin. Winds Today were out of the southwest or west at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence: Low.

Tonight (April 30th)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will continue Tonight with a cold front over Northwest Minnesota late This Afternoon pushing southeast and through most of our area during the night. Some rain should develop Tonight, mainly in Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Northern Minnesota should stay dry. Lows will be in the 20s in Northern Minnesota with 30s and lower 40s elsewhere. Winds will turn to the northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night (May 1st)

A cold front will stall out south/east of the Northland with a very strong baroclinic zone (temperature gradient) over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Occasional rain will occur Tomorrow in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin but as colder air mixes down from aloft the rain will likely mix with or change to snow at times during the day Tomorrow, even colder air is forecast to move in Wednesday Night and that should result in mostly snow as the precipitation type in Northwest Wisconsin, far Eastern Minnesota and far Northeastern Minnesota. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 20s and 30s. Winds will be out of the north or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

4" or greater snowfall probability forecast for Wednesday Night and Thursday per Weather Prediction Center.

Blue=Slight risk for at least 4" of snow.
Green=Moderate risk for at least 4" of snow.

Extended Forecast - Confidence: Low.

Thursday through Saturday (May 2nd-4th)

An unusual weather pattern will develop this period as a large ridge (block) sets-up to our east while a cut-off low takes shape somewhere over the Central Plains. This cut-off low will then be forced north due to the ridge to our east. This will be a very slow moving weather system and it's possible that parts of the Northland will get at least some precipitation every day from Thursday-Saturday. At the moment the greatest chance for precip looks to be in Northwest Wisconsin and far Eastern Minnesota with Northern Minnesota possibly remaining dry through Saturday.

As for precipitation types: Snow or rain on Thursday, but then warmer air pushes in from the east and that should result in mostly rain for Friday and Saturday.

Highs will be in the 30s and 40s on Thursday with 40s and 50s Friday and Saturday. Lows Thursday Night will be in the 20s and 30s. Lows Friday Night mainly in the 30s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence: Medium.

(May 5th-9th)

A cut-off low may still be affecting our weather on Sunday-Monday (5th-6th) with possible rain showers at times. Another system could affect the Upper Midwest sometime around the 7th-8th with showers or thunderstorms. Near to below average temperatures are forecast through this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

*WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SUPERIOR*
Timing: Wednesday Evening through Thursday Evening.

.Tonight... Considerable cloudiness. Low 35 to 40. Wind southwest becoming northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday... Occasional light rain possible. Mostly cloudy. High 45 to 50. Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday Night... Rain or snow possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 30 to 35. Wind north to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday... Rain or snow possible. Mostly cloudy. High 40 to 45.

.Thursday Night... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. Low 30 to 35.

.Friday... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 40 to 45.

.Friday Night... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. Low 30 to 35.

.Saturday... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 40 to 45.

Normal temperatures for Today

High: 57
Low: 36

Sunrise Wednesday: 5:53 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday: 8:19 PM CDT

Tim

Flood information statement; Oh and winter weather headlines may be needed for parts of the Northland Wed-Thu.

2013-04-30T09:09:00.002-07:00

/Issued 10:45 AM CDT, Tuesday, April 30th, 2013/

NWS hazards map.

Numerous flood warnings and advisories are in effect in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, details below.

Flood information statement
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

*FLOOD WARNING*

Location: The St. Louis River at Scanlon.

Timing: Late Tonight through late Thursday Night.

Stage as of 8:30 AM CDT Tuesday: 9.9 feet.

Flood stage: 10.5 feet.

Forecast: The river is expected to rise to near flood stage after Midnight Tomorrow.

At 10.5 feet property flooding occurs at 2 businesses in Scanlon. This crest compares to a previous crest of 12.4 feet on July 10, 1999.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

*FLOOD WARNING*

Location: The Mississippi River at Aitkin affecting Aitkin County.

Timing: Until further notice.

Stage as of 9:30 AM CDT Tuesday: 12.0 feet.

Flood stage: 12.0 feet.

Minor flooding is forecast.

Forecast: Rise above flood stage by This Evening and continue to rise to near 13.5 feet by early Sunday Morning.

At 13.0 feet some roads are covered with water.

This crest compares to a previous crest of 15.4 feet on April 16, 1922.

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*FLOOD WARNING*

Location: The Mississippi River near Fort Ripley affecting Morrison and Crow Wing County.

Timing: From Wednesday Morning until further notice.

Stage as of 9 AM CDT Tuesday: 9.7 feet.

Flood stage: 10.0 feet.

Minor flooding is forecast.

Forecast: Rise above flood stage by Tomorrow Morning and continue to rise to near 10.5 feet by Friday Evening.

At 11.0 feet this will cause minor flooding of rural areas near Fort Ripley.

This crest compares to a previous crest of 12.2 feet on May 18, 1999.

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*FLOOD ADVISORY*

Location: Southeastern St. Louis in Northeast Minnesota.

Timing: Until 10:45 PM CDT Tonight.

At 10:42 PM Monday water covered the road at the Intersection of Lakewood Road and Pioneer Road near the French River. The road is closed per law enforcement.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

*FLOOD ADVISORY*

Location:

-Southeast Carlton County Minnesota.
-Northern Ashland County Wisconsin including the city of Ashland.
-Bayfield County Wisconsin.
-Northern Iron County Wisconsin.
-Northern Douglas County Wisconsin.

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Tim

Flood Advisory for Carlton, Douglas, Bayfield, Ashland and Iron Counties. Scattered showers/isolated t'storms late Tonight-Tuesday AM; Mild on Tuesday; Colder mid-late week; Snow?

2013-04-29T15:01:00.001-07:00

/Issued 4:02 PM CDT, Monday, April 29th, 2013/

4" or greater snowfall potential for Wednesday Night and Thursday. (Source, Weather Prediction Center)

Green=Moderate risk for at least 4" of snow.
Blue=Slight risk for at least 4" of snow.

12" or greater snowfall potential for Wednesday Night and Thursday. (Source, Weather Prediction Center)

Blue=Slight risk for at least 12" of snow.

*FLOOD ADVISORY*
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Location: Southeast Carlton County Minnesota. Northern Ashland including the city of Ashland, Bayfield, Northern Douglas and Northern Iron County in Wisconsin.

Valid: Until 3:30 PM CDT Thursday.

Discussion: A small stream flood advisory for rain and melting snow has been issued for parts of the Northland.

Some locations that will experience minor flooding include:

-The Montreal River in Hurley.
-The Bad River Headwaters east of Mellen.
-The Bad River from Mellen to Odanah.
-The Whittlesey Creek near Ashland.
-The Nemadji and Poplar River in Douglas County.

Excessive runoff from spring snow melt and potential rainfall will cause elevated levels on small creeks and streams and ponding of water on country roads and farmland along the banks of creeks and streams.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A nice spring day throughout the Northland under partly to mostly sunny skies. Highs were in the 60s to lower 70s with some 50s in parts of Northern Minnesota and also in Downtown Duluth and in Superior. Note: Today marked the 4th day in a row with a high temp of at least 60F at the Duluth Airport. Winds Today were south, north or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term - Confidence: High.

Tonight (April 29th)

A strong area of low pressure(989-994mb) is forecast to move through the Northern Plains and Western Minnesota Tonight. A warm front and cold front attached to this low will be moving into the Northland later Tonight. A strengthening low level jet of 30-50 knots is expected to develop later Tonight with a strong surge of warm and moist advection spreading into the Northland as this system approaches.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast Tonight with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms developing, especially after Midnight. The amount of MUCAPE (elevated instability) is actually quite impressive for the time of year with values of 500-1000 j/kg Overnight along with lifted indices of 0 to -4C per latest model guidance.

Lows Tonight will be in the 40s to lower 50s with 30s closer to Lake Superior. South or east winds are forecast at 10 to 20 mph.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night (April 30th)

Deep low pressure moves into Ontario this period with a cold front passing through Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin prior to Tuesday Afternoon. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday, but this threat will end from west to east once the cold front moves through. A few showers could return to parts of our area Tuesday Night. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 50s and 60s with a few 70s possible mainly in Northwest Wisconsin. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 30s to lower 40s. Winds will be out of the south, west or north at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence: Low.

Wednesday through Friday (May 1st-3rd)

This period could feature some interesting weather in parts of our area, but the computer models continue to display vastly different solutions as to where a band of precipitation sets-up, and how much of it falls as snow. Stay tuned!

Here's what is known: A cold front will stall out south/east of our area from mid to late week while a very strong area of high pressure (1045mb) sets-up to our west/north. This high will pull cold air down into the Upper Midwest while moisture runs up and over that stalled boundary to our SE. Another key component to this forecast will be a developing ridge to our east, how far west that ridge is will determine where the rain or snow will be from Wednesday-Friday.

At this time it appears that Northwest Wisconsin and far Eastern Minnesota have the best chance at seeing snow or rain during this period while Northern Minnesota remains generally dry. There is a potential for several inches of snow accumulation especially in the Wednesday Night/Thursday time frame in far Eastern MN and Northwest WI.

High temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s during this period with lows Wednesday Night and Thursday Night in the 20s and 30s.

*15z 4.29.13 SREF snowfall accumulation forecast for 7 AM Thursday. Certainly something to keep an eye on as there could be a band of sticking snow stretching from the Central Plains to the Northern Great Lakes later this week.

Duluth needs 6.0" of snow to tie the snowiest year on record 1995-1996 with 135.4".
Duluth needs 2.4" of snow to tie the 2nd snowiest year on record 1949-1950 with 131.8".

Long Range Forecast - Confidence: Medium.

(May 4th-8th)

A cutoff low and an upper level trough is forecast to move north/northeast out of the Central Plains and into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes from Saturday-Monday (4th-6th) Temperatures should warm enough by this time so that if precipitation occurs it would fall as rain. There's another system targeting the Upper Midwest early next week, probably on Tuesday/Wednesday (7th-8th) This one could bring showers or thunderstorms to the Northland. Near to below average temperatures are forecast through this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... Partly to mostly cloudy. Showers or isolated thunderstorms possible mainly after 4 AM. Low 37 to 42. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday... Scattered showers or isolated thunderstorms possible mainly before 11 AM. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 63 to 68. Wind east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph during the Morning, becoming west at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday Night... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. Low 35 to 40. Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 45 to 50.

.Wednesday Night... Mostly cloudy. Rain or snow possible. Low 30 to 35.

.Thursday... Mostly cloudy. Rain or snow possible. High 35 to 40.

.Thursday Night... Mostly cloudy. Rain or snow possible. Low 30 to 35.

.Friday... Mostly cloudy. Rain possible. High 40 to 45.

Normal temperatures for Today

High: 56
Low: 36

Sunrise Tuesday: 5:55 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday: 8:18 PM CDT

Tim

Flood Warning in effect for the Mississippi River at Aitkin and Fort Ripley, MN; Civil Emergency for a part of Western Upper Michigan-details in this post.

2013-04-29T12:40:00.002-07:00

/Issued 2:21 PM CDT, Monday, April 29th, 2013/

*NWS hazards map.

Green=Flood Warning.

Note: The light pink area, east of Ironwood, Michigan is a Civil Emergency Message. The 20 mile stretch of M-28 between Bruce Crossing and Bergland, Michigan is now closed due to flooding. This closure will continue until further notice. (Source: NWS Marquette, MI)

*FLOOD WARNING*
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Location: The Mississippi River at Aitkin affecting Aitkin County Minnesota.

Valid: This Evening until further notice.

Stage as of 1:30 PM CDT Monday: 11.6 feet.

Flood stage: 12.0 feet.

Forecast: Minor flooding is forecast to begin This Evening and may last through next Monday, May 6th, 2013. A crest of 14.1 feet is expected later this week, most likely either Thursday or Friday, May 2nd or 3rd.

*Hydrograph for the Mississippi River at Aitkin.

*FLOOD WARNING*
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Location: The Mississippi River near Fort Ripley affecting Morrison and Crow Wing County Minnesota.

Valid: Until further notice.

Stage as of 1:00 PM CDT Monday: 9.1 feet.

Flood stage: 10.0 feet.

Forecast: Minor flooding is expected this week, possibly lasting through next Monday, May 6th, 2013. A crest of 11.3 feet is forecast later this week, most likely on Thursday or Friday, May 2nd-3rd.

*Hydrograph for the Mississippi River in Fort Ripley.

Tim

A few showers Tonight with isolated t'storms also possible; Dry with 50s/60s Monday-cooler near Lake Superior (what a surprise)

2013-04-28T15:01:00.000-07:00

/Issued 4:05 PM CDT, Sunday, April 28th, 2013/

*7-day precipitation forecast from the Weather Prediction Center.

Valid through next Sunday, May 5th, 2013. Much of Minnesota could receive a half inch or more of rain through next weekend. Heaviest swath of rain 1-3" may setup from Southern Minnesota through much of Wisconsin and Upper Michigan.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Another mild spring day in most of the Northland with highs in the 60s and 70s along with south or southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph. As usual the exception to all this wonderfully warm weather was near the head of Lake Superior where the marine layer has been stuck since last Friday, highs were only in the 40s in Downtown Duluth Today with 50s in Superior with northeast winds around 5-15 mph. Skies were partly sunny to mostly cloudy Today with scattered showers mainly affecting Western-Northern parts of our area. As of 3 PM, a cold front was over Western Minnesota with a pre-frontal trough extending from Eastcentral to Southwest Minnesota.

Weather Tidbits:

*13". The snow depth at the Duluth Airport has shrunk by 13" between April 21 and April 28. 25" last Sunday, down to 12" as of 7 AM Today. I'm expecting the snow depth to be down to virtually nothing by this time next week at the Duluth Airport, sooner in other parts of the Twin Ports.

*Flood Watch*
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Location: The Mississippi River at Aitkin, affecting Aitkin County in Eastcentral Minnesota.

Timing: Tuesday Morning until further notice.

Stage as of 2:30 PM CDT Sunday: 10.8 feet.

Flood stage: 12.0 feet.

Forecast: Minor flooding is expected to begin on Tuesday. A crest of around 13.8 feet is possible later this week with at least minor flooding expected to continue through next weekend.

*Hydrograph for the Mississippi River near Aitkin, MN.

*Flood Watch*
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Location: The Mississippi River near Fort Ripley, affecting Crow Wing and Morrison County in Eastcentral Minnesota.

Timing: Tuesday Afternoon until further notice.

Stage as of 2:00 PM CDT Sunday: 8.4 feet.

Flood stage: 10.0 feet.

Forecast: Minor flooding is expected to begin on Tuesday with a crest of around 11.1 feet possible later this week. At least minor flooding is possible through next weekend.

*Hydrograph for the Mississippi River at Fort Ripley, MN.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence: High.

Tonight (April 28th)

A pre-frontal trough and cold front will be moving through our area Tonight. Late Afternoon mesoanalysis shows CAPE of around 500 j/kg or less with lifted indices around 0 to -2C. Lapse rates were very steep and varied between 7.5-8.5 c/km. Moisture isn't the best, however which is typical for this time of year. Dew points were generally in the 40s along and ahead of the boundaries This Afternoon with PWS at or less than 0.80". Lift/convergence along the aforementioned trough and cold front combined with the ingredients already in place should be enough to fuel scattered showers in the Northland with isolated thunderstorms also possible.

In Northeast Minnesota, the best chance for rain should be before 10 PM. Rain chances may linger most of the night across Northwest Wisconsin.

Lows Tonight will vary from the 20s in Northern Minnesota with 30s and 40s elsewhere. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected with south/west winds becoming north/northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Monday and Monday Night (April 29th)

A weak area of high pressure will move through the Northland on Monday resulting in dry weather under partly to mostly sunny skies, highs will be in the 50s and 60s with cooler temps near Lake Superior. By Monday Night the chance for showers will increase from west to east as low pressure along with a warm front and cold front approach the Upper Midwest from the Northern Plains. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 30s and 40s with south or east winds at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence: Medium.

Tuesday through Thursday (April 30th-May 2nd)

Low pressure will pass northwest of our area on Tuesday while a cold front sweeps through Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Showers are possible at times on Tuesday as this system rolls through. Wednesday and Thursday may turn out to be dry over most of our area, but that'll depend on how far east a cold front gets by mid-week. If it stalls out farther west then expect more rain at times from Tuesday Night through Thursday, but if it stalls farther south/east, then the bulk of the rain should setup from Southern Minnesota into Northcentral Wisconsin Tuesday Night through Thursday.

Highs on Tuesday will be in the 50s and 60s. Cooler weather returns Wednesday and Thursday with highs mainly in the 40s. Lows Tuesday Night will be in the 30s to lower 40s. Lows Wednesday Night will mainly be in the 30s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence: Medium.

(May 3rd-7th)

Still looking at a large cutoff low pressure system developing south of Minnesota during this period. This system will move very slowly toward the Great Lakes from the 4th-6th. Periods of rain are possible across the Northland from the 3rd-6th. Below average temperatures are forecast through this period.

*500mb forecast for Friday, May 3, 2013. A cutoff low/trough covering the Plains. This will be a slow moving system once it develops.

*500mb forecast for Sunday, May 5, 2013. Notice the track of the upper low and how slow it moves. SW Missouri area Friday AM to Southern Iowa Sunday AM. Yikes.

(Source, Weather Prediction Center)

Temperature report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

Highs for April 21-27, 2013:

4/21: 38F/14 degrees below normal
4/22: 40F/13 degrees below normal
4/23: 42F/11 degrees below normal
4/24: 42F/12 degrees below normal
4/25: 44F/10 degrees below normal
4/26: 62F/7 degrees above normal
4/27: 67F/12 degrees above normal

Lows for April 21-27, 2013:

4/21: 21F/11 degrees below normal
4/22: 32F/1 degree below normal
4/23: 30F/3 degrees below normal
4/24: 21F/13 degrees below normal
4/25: 27F/7 degrees below normal
4/26: 37F/3 degrees above normal
4/27: 35F/Normal

Precipitation total for April 21-27, 2013: 0.80"
Average: 0.64"
Departure: +0.16"

*Temperature departure map for April 21-27, 2013. Another week with colder than normal temps in the Midwest.

*Precipitation departure map for April 21-27, 2013.

(Source: Midwest Regional Climate Center)

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... A few showers possible mainly before 10 PM. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 35 to 40. Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph becoming northwest later This Evening. Northeast winds closer to Lake Superior becoming northwest late.

.Monday... Partly cloudy. High 56 to 61 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind north to northeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Monday Night... Increasing cloudiness. Showers possible Overnight. Low 37 to 42.

.Tuesday... Considerable cloudiness. Showers possible. High 55 to 60.

.Tuesday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 35 to 40.

.Wednesday... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 45 to 50.

.Wednesday Night... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. Low 30 to 35.

.Thursday... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 40 to 45.

Normal temperatures for Today

High: 56
Low: 35

Sunrise Monday: 5:56 AM CDT
Sunset Monday: 8:17 PM CDT

Tim