The Enlightened Spartan

ES Preview: Spartans host freeze-fest vs New Jersey State University

2024-11-30T11:35:00.003-05:00

From MSU webcam today (11/30/24). Brrrrrr.

Michigan State Spartans (5-6/3-5) vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights (6-5/3-5)

Saturday, November 30, 2024. 3:30 pm ET.

Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI

TV: Fox Sports 1 (FS1)

Weather: it's cccc-cccc-ccccold here. 22 and light snow. We've got about an inch of snow on the ground. It's winter.

Sagarin Ratings: MSU #79, Rutgers #59

Line Outta Vegas: MSU FAVORED by 2

The ES has been on a sabbatical the past few weeks and just getting caught up. Hope you all had a good Turkey Day. Go LIONS.

Yes, that’s right, MSU is actually favored by 2 points in this game. It’s basically a dead heat of two Big Ten bottom-feeders. If MSU wins or loses, it will likely stay home. With a win, MSU is “bowl-eligible” and probably goes to the GameAbove Sports Bowl on December 26 against a MAC team. They get another 20 days of practice, which they need. They should practice in the snow all the way to Christmas.

Here’s a statistical matchup:

	MSU	RUTGERS
Off. Points per Game (Rank)	19.8 (121)	26.7 (83)
Def. Points per Game (Rank)	24.7 (61)	24.7 (61)
Turnovers Allowed (Rank)	18 (92)	8 (6)
Turnovers Forced (Rank)	11 (107)	11 (107)

ES likely not going to the game today… why? This Spartan team just isn’t inspiring and makes far too many turnovers. It’s a frustrating team to freeze and watch, let alone watch on tv with good weather indoors.

Prediction:

ES sez: Let's Go to Detroit! MSU 24, Rutgers 23.

ES Preview: MSU hosts Indiana Hoosiers

2024-11-02T12:57:00.010-04:00

Michigan State Spartans (4-4/2-3) vs Indiana Hoosiers (8-0/4-0)

Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI
November 2, 2024. 3:30 pm.

TV: Peacock
Weather: 55, sunny

Sagarin Ratings: Indiana #16, Michigan State #62

Line Outta Vegas: Indiana by 7.5

It’s a beautiful day here in East Lansing. No wind, about 55 degrees, and we have a running game. The loss at Michigan was tough, leaving 17 points on the board. ES thinks this running game is going to dominate all game long and wake up the Hoosiers fanbase. The Spartans have always kicked Indiana’s arse, and we’re the best team they’ve played all year. 8-0 and undefeated will fall. It’s quiet today from the MSU and ES faithful, which methinks is an omen for a quiet upset. I'm with Big Bob on this one.

Prognostications:

Sloth: 31-10, Hoosierdaddy.
Keith: 24-17 hoosiers

Big Bob: MSU 27-24

Kansas City Chiefs J: No More Undefeated! MSU in OT!!

ES sez: MSU 27, Indiana 23.

List of Detroit Lions history making statistics in 2024… so far

2024-10-28T16:29:00.007-04:00

Here's a list so far of all the record-breaking accomplishments by the Detroit Lions in 2024. More to come!

NFL League Records:

*Lions are the third team since the 1970 merger to have 13 passing touchdowns and 13 rushing touchdowns to go along with a 100-point win margin through seven games of a season. The other two teams to do this were the 2009 New Orleans Saints and 1998 Denver Broncos, who both went on to win the Super Bowl.

*Goff has completed 84.3% of his passes over the past five games -- the highest completion rate over a five-game span in NFL history (min. 50 passes), per ESPN Research.

*Jared Goff is the first QB to ever throw at least two touchdowns while completing at least 72 percent of his passes and notch a QB Rating over 110.0 in five straight games.

*Goff became the third quarterback in NFL history with a passer rating of 125 or higher with a minimum of 15 pass attempts per game. The other two to do so are Russell Wilson in 2015 and Ryan Tannehill in 2019.

*Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs became the fourth player in NFL history to average five yards per carry on a minimum 10 attempts in six-straight games.

*Goff set an NFL passing record completing all 18 passes vs Seattle Seahawks, best in NFL history.
*Detroit’s 47-9 victory over the Dallas Cowboys was the Cowboys’ worst home loss in AT&T Stadium history,
*Goff completed 80 percent of his pass in three games in October, threw for 680 yards and eight touchdowns and amassed a passer rating of 149.8 over that stretch. That passer rating is the highest in league history in the month of October.

In win over Tennessee:

*The Lions put up 52 points vs Tennessee without even reaching 100 passing yards, which hasn't happened in the Super Bowl era. The last team to score 50 points with less than 100 passing yards was the 1955 Chicago Bears

*They're also the first NFL team to be outgained by at least 150 yards and win by at least 30 points since 1933, when yardage was first fully tracked.

*Jack Fox punted five times for an average of 61.0 yards, the first punter in NFL history to average over 60 yards with five punts in a game.

*Khalif Raymond was just 18 yards short of the NFL record for punt return yards in a game set by LeRoy Irvin (207) in 1981.

*Raymond is 1st player with multiple 60-yard punt returns in a game since Gunner Olszewski for the Patriots in 2020
*Kalif Raymond averaged 38 yards per return on his five punt returns, which is the highest average by a returner with at least five punt returns in a single game since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger.

*Since 1941, only two other teams have produced a 90-yard punt return and a 70-yard kickoff return in the same game. The Lions did so with a 90-yard punt return by Kalif Raymond and a 72-yard kickoff return by Khalil Dorsey.

*The Lions accomplished a feat that no other team has done since 1941 when they scored 50 points despite totaling less than 225 yards of total offense.

Lions records:

*The Lions have now scored 172 points (43.0 points per game) over their past four games, the most points in a four-game span within a season in franchise history, according to ESPN Research.

*Khalif Raymond scored on a 90-yarder in the third quarter that tied for the second longest punt return touchdown in franchise history and longest in a home game since 1963. *Raymond's 90-yard punt return touchdown is the longest by a Lions player since Desmond Howard in 2000 (95 in Week 1 at Saints).

*Kerby Joseph is the first Lions safety to record five interceptions in a season since Glover Quin in 2014. He now has 13 career interceptions through the first three seasons of his career, tied for the third most by a Lions player since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger.

*Six different players scored a touchdown on Sunday, tying a franchise record.

*Lions scored 50-plus points for just the fifth time in franchise history.

*Jack Bates nailed his 11th field goal in 11th tries, setting a new franchise record for most consecutive field goals to start the season.

ES Preview: Big Green at Michigan

2024-10-26T16:55:00.007-04:00

Michigan State Spartans (4-3, 2-2) at scUM (4-3, 2-2)

Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI.

Saturday, Oct. 26, 2024. 4:30 pm. Big Ten Network

Sagarin Ratings: scUM #36, MSU #61

Weather: 48, clear skies. Moony.

Both teams have good defenses. That's not the issue.

Michigan can run the ball well but has three terrible quarterbacks. As the saying goes, if you have three quarterbacks you don't have any. Aidan Chiles played well for MSU - the best all year - in its win over Iowa. It helped the Spartan offensive line was excellent pushing around Iowa last week. That win over Iowa last week was a big surprise because of how the Spartans controlled the clock and dictated the game with a very strong running game, sprinkled with an efficient Chiles throwing the ball. The Spartan defense was a wall for most of the game, and that stout effort was impressive.

Bring on Michigan. If we hit Iowa in the mouth, then we need to decapitate Michigan.

Prognostications:

Pontiac Keith, MSU 21-20

Big Bob, scUM 17-16

Pittsburgh Sloth: MSU 2, Fuck Michigan 0

J Dog: UM Gets Bitch Slapped!, MSU 28-0

ES sez: MSU 29, scUM 12

ES Preview: Michigan State vs Ugly Chickens

2024-10-19T14:35:00.001-04:00

Michigan State Spartans (3-3/1-2) host the Iowa Hawkeyes (4-2/2-1)

Oct 19, 2024. 7:30 ET.

Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI.

Weather: 66, sunny. Gonna get down to 50 by end of game.

Sagarin Ratings: Iowa #16, Big Green #77

http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm
Line Outta Vegas: Ugly Chickens by 6.5

ES has been out of pocket for the past two weeks, visiting the Great Northwest to take care of his ma. Now, back to EL and watching Indiana destroy Nebraska as he writes this. What the hell is going on? Hopefully, both Illinois and Michigan State can add to the pain to Big Ten champion contenders.

Well, Big Green TD Machine has had a week off to figure out Iowa, which kicked the shit out of Washington last week, 40-10. If MSU puts up 41 points tonight, that would be a miracle. As I have stated to many and another, MSU needs to get a QB coach whose sole job is to teach Aidan Chiles how to chill and set his feet when he passes. Luckily, the Spartans get all their receivers back in this game (Nick Marsh, Jaron Glover, and Antonio Gates), giving Aidan Chiles some significant targets to spell time from a struggling running game.

This game will be won in the trenches, particularly in two areas: turnovers (how much has Aidan Chiles learned?) and between Iowa’s OL with a good rushing game and MSU’s fairly stout DL. Upset in the making is the way the ES reads this…

	Iowa	MSU
SOS rank	#20	#27
Pts PG	29.2	19.8
Pts Allowed PG	17.7	21
Rush Yds PG	222.8	120.2
Pass Yds PG	134.7	229.7
Rush Def PG	96.3	130.8
Pass Def PG	219.7	199
TO Margin	6	-6
3rd Dn Pct	45%	41%
3rd Dn Def Pct	35%	43%

Prognostications?

Big Bob: MSU 27-24
Pontiac Keith: Iowa 30-10
J Man: Upset!!!!! Victory for MSU
Sloth: MSU 6, Chickenhawks 3

Cathy Sue: Whatever to who cares

ES: MSU 17, Ugly Chickens 16

ES Preview: MSU hosts Arseholes from Columbus

2024-09-28T11:00:00.002-04:00

Michigan State Spartans vs Ohio State Buckasses

September 28, 2024. 7:30 pm. Peacock TV.

Weather: 65 and cloudy. Maybe some misty rain thanks to Helene remnants.

Line Outta Vegas: Ohio State by 23-1/2

Sagarin Ratings: Buckass #4, Spartans #67

This is what BuckNut deserves, a gut blow. Unfortunately, we're not #9. 2015.

Or this, $atan beating #1 Buckass in the HorseShoe. 1999.

Levi Jackson running 88 yards to beat #1 Ohio State in East Lansing. 1974.

We beat Ohio State about every 10-15 years. Is this the year?

It actually sucks writing this preview. First off, LOTS of complaints about this game on Peacock. I agree with you people. It is demonstrative of the changing times with streaming from antenna to cable to satellite to streaming. And it is costing ALL of us billions to fatten the wallets of the rich folk, in many ways I cannot count. But, while it is expensive for the providers, they really could give a crap about their consumers who are football-hungry. It's too bad, but it is reality. More content = more costs = more money. You want your football today, you've gotta pay for it. But, certainly worthy of Congressional investigation. That's another post.

Ohio State has absolutely throttled Michigan State at home the last several times I attended. I left at halftime. Half the stadium will be filled with Buckeye fans, who are complete a$$holes and abonoxioius as if Ohio State deserves to be in the NFL. I've encountered this many times in my life at MSU-OSU games, especially when MSU beat Ohio State in the Big Ten Title game to go to the Rose Bowl back in 2014. About 90% of the OSU fans I encountered in stadiums are rude, mean, and in-your face. That includes Buck-Nut. Not impressed with the F*uckeye fan base. No wonder why Kirk Herbstreit left Columbus to move to Cincinnati - even that Buckeye QB alum couldn't stand it anymore.

I think the Michigan State defense is pretty good, and might be able to hold up for a while, especially in the rain. Like the interior D, like the pressure and great play by LBs. The problem is the offense, and Aidan Chiles. He's a turnover machine and makes very bad throws under pressure; which may very well be today against the Buckeyes. The dude needs to learn how to take a sack and throw the ball away for another play. He has wheels, and may likely burn the Buckeyes a few times with his wheels... if he survives.

MSU, at this time under Jonathan Smith, is just a year or two away from moving up to the top half of the league. With the Spartans' laundry list of injuries (will this ever change? MSU is always more injury-bitten than most early in the season, leading to question marks about the level of talent brought to East Lansing), it is hard to identify where MSU wins, unless the defense creates massive turnovers, Jonathan Kim kicks 6 field goals, and the punting game puts the Buckeeys in long drives that lead to... turnovers. That's a tall ask.

Prognostications:

Tailgate Master J: OSU 42-7. We about to get Bitch Slapped with the pimp hand!

Pittsburgh Sloth: MSU pain and suffering. Ohio State 45-10

Pontiac Keith: Ohio State 42-12

Big Bob: Ohio State 56 - 5 INTs for MSU

Princess Catherine: Ohio State 45-7

ES Sez: Ohio State 35, MSU 16.

ES sez: Ohio State 35, MSU 16.

ES Preview: Michigan State Spartans vs That Other Catholic School

2024-09-21T09:45:00.008-04:00

Michigan State Spartans (3-0) at Boston College Eagles (3-0)

Alumni Stadium, Chester Hill, Massachusetts

September 21, 2024. 8:00 pm ET.

TV: ACC Network

Weather: 59 degrees, RAIN.

Sagarin Ratings: Boston College #55, Michigan State #69

Line Outta Vegas: The Other Catholics by 5.5

BC Stadium Capacity 44,500. Yikes, that's ACC tiny.

Yes, it will rain today in Boston. Rain, rain, rain.

Big Bob and the ES saw these boys sing this live in EL about 20 years ago. Let it rain rain rain in Boston.

The ES is up at Mackinac Island for the weekend and will watch the game from the City. A bit distracted from football today, but will pop in to catch scores during the game around lunch, bicycling, the Grand Hotel, and fudge. 72 and sunny today here up north; better than the pouring rain expected during the game today in Boston.

First of all, BC has has two significant contests on the road: a win at wannabees Florida State and BC pushed #6 Mizzou to the limit last week. The Other Catholics have a great rushing attack, with a mobile QB with Nick Castellanos who also has 9 TD passes. The Boston College running game has been the key for the Eagles. Florida State transfer Treshaun Ward has 153 yards through three games, and the Eagles are averaging 205 yards per game on the ground and 5 yards per carry. The Spartan defense is 23rd in FBS in rushing defense, allowing 78 yards per game. This is key, especially in a rain storm.

Spartan QB Aidan Chiles has all the talent in the world, with wheels to boot. However, the young man has lots of coaching in front as he must learn to settle down and set his feet before he throws instead of behaving like Patrick Mahomes. Each time, this gets him into trouble resulting in overthrows and INTs. If he can settle in and MSU can find a way to use its run game, it should have a chance. But, MSU needs to stop the Other Catholic rushing attack. Watch Chiles try to lengthen the field to standout 17-year old Nick Marsh. One or two hits on this could be tremendous. Can the MSU defense hold up and create a few turnovers in the rain? Pray and find out.

This will be a challenging contest for the newbie, undefeated Spartan coach Jonathan Smith, who has MSU undefeated and sitting atop the Big Ten through three games.

Prognostications:

Big Bob: BC 28-24 MSU
Amsterdam CHock: My original pick was what Bob said. To be different, I'll say BC 27 - MSU 20
Keith: MSU 24-23

Australian Paul: MSU 41-0. We're talking scalps.

Pittsburgh Sloth: I predict beer.

ES sez, MSU 27, BC 23.

ES Preview: MSU Bubba Smith hosts PVAM Kenny Houston

2024-09-14T10:33:00.003-04:00

Michigan State Spartans (2-0) host Prairie View A&M Panthers (1-1)
September 14, 2024. 3:30 pm.
Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI
TV: BTN

Weather: hot, 85 and sunny, no wind.
Sagarin Ratings: MSU #74, Prairie View #234
Line Outta Vegas (via LSJ): MSU by 41 points with an O/U of 10-1/2. So, the prediction would be MSU to win by at least 40-10.

Who is the most famous Prairie View alumni? I googled it, and remember Ken Houston, who played both for the Houston Oilers and (as I remember watching him) for the Washington Redskins. He was one of the first lock-down corners as I remember, and he dominated the NFL for about a decade years (named to the Pro Bowl 12 times).

Here's Kenny Houston, tackling Walter Payton. PVAM don't have him today.

Not much about this game. It's a B1G vs a HBCU in FCS. The Big Green Touchdown Machine was originally scheduled to play Louisiana-Lafayette, but replaced it with PVAM for $500,000. The Spartans better win.

MSU's plan? Just stay healthy. MSU travels to Boston College (#58 in Sagarin) next week, and BC really is an unknown, other than they can run the ball like crazy and beat a terrible Florida State team in Tallahassee. So, stay healthy, win, and move on. Maybe Adian Chiles can work on his footwork and we can just run the ball. Lots of Gatorade in the heat today.

Prognostications:

Big Bob: MSU 34-17
Pontiac Keith: MSU 42-6
Uncle Denny: MSU 42-17
Australian Paul: 38-0 MSU. After the game, the opposing coach is found in the bathroom, curled up in the foetal position singing "you make me feel like a natural woman"
Doc: Win, but look like crap at times. Growing pains. MSU 31-16

ES sez: MSU 38-10

DETROIT LIONS. ONE STOP ON THE JET TO THE PROMISED LAND.

2024-09-09T17:01:00.002-04:00

ELVIS SAYS THE LIONS WILL MAKE IT TO THE PROMISED LAND.

video

TRIFECTA HITS AGAIN! MSU wins, UM gets its ass kicked, ND loses to the MAC

2024-09-07T20:40:00.004-04:00

TRIFECTA IN FAVOR OF MICHIGAN STATE... AGAIN!!!!!

With MSU’s dramatic win over Maryland 27-24 (the ES predicted MSU would win 26-24), combined with the gutting of scUM by Texas, 31-12, and the disaster by the Right Wing Irish to lowly Northern Illinois at home 16-14… WE HIT THE TRIFECTA!!!

This is rare, for MSU to win on the same weekend that Michigan and Notre Dame lose. It’s a great feeling. I hate those two football teams more than any other in college football, because they’ve had enough time winning. Share the wealth. The statistics, plain Ws and Ls are below.

From 2015-2024, the Trifecta ooccured 4 times, including today (Sep 7, 2024). (4 times over 120 weekends = 3.3% frequency).

From 2007 - 2014, the Trifecta occurred 11 times (11 times over 88 weekends = 12.5% frequency).
From 1968 – 2006, the Trifecta occurred 10 times (10 times over 443 weekends = 2.3% frequency).
Seven times in the past 57 years has a weekend included either MSU defeating Michigan and ND losing, or MSU defeating ND and Michigan losing.
Three times has the Trifecta occurred in back-to-back weekends: the first weekends of the 2007 season, from 11/7 to 11/14 in 2009 and the last two weekends (11/22-11/29) in 2014.
There has not been a Trifecta three times in a row in the past 57 years.

Below is a list of the few Trifectas since 2014, and you can link to a previous post from the ES back in 2014 which outlined all of this data back into ancient history.

Date	MSU	ND	MICH
9/7/24	W, 27-24 MD	L, 14-16 NIU	L, 12-31 TEX
9/21/19	W, 31-10 NW	L, 17-23 GA	L 14-35, WIS
11/25/17	W, 40-7 RUT	L, 20-38 STAN	L, 20-31 OHST
11/28/15	W, 55-16 PSU	L, 36-38 STAN	L, 13-42 OHST

Here’s the link to before 2015: https://enlightenedspartan.blogspot.com/2014/11/michigan-state-hits-rare-2-weekend.html

ES Preview: Michigan State Spartans vs Maryland Turtles

2024-09-07T11:00:00.003-04:00

Welcome to College Park Maryland, aka Melvindale, Michigan

Michigan State Spartans (1-0) at Maryland Turtles (1-0)

SECU Stadium. College Park, Maryland

September 7, 2024. 3:30 pm ET.

Weather: 73 and partly cloudy.

Sagarin Ratings: Michigan State #80. Maryland #37.

Line Outta Vegas: Maryland by around 9 points.

About the Sagarin Ratings. Why the hell does the ES use this? Many reasons. First, Jeff Sagrain is a mathematics professor at MIT. Second, he developed his method back in the early 80s, when I started first using computers and doing my own NFL calcuation predictions using the BASIC language on a TI-99. So - there is some smarmy connection there. Third, the College Football Playoff, the Bowl Championship Series, have always used the Sagarin Ratings as part of their consideration - and in the BCS, it was a calculation included in the final scores to support one team moving forward. Fourth, its really the only measure consistent over a very long period of time that includes all of Division I (including FCS). As such, with his data, we can make these odd comparisons and inclusions into the data from lower-division teams (like Prairie View A&T, which is next on MSU’s schedule).

So, Cat (my g-friend), guessed Maryland would win 24-10, just out of the whim after I asked her. So, if you go to the Sagarin Ratings, he asks you to take the team at home, read their Rating #5, add 3 points for home, and then subtract the visiting team Rating number. Quite honestlly, it usually is within 2-3 points outta Vegas.

So, using Sagarin: #37 Maryland, 76.65 - #60 Michigan State, 67.39 + 3 pt home field advantage (MD) = Maryland by 12.285

Give Cat credit, she’s pretty spot on with Vegas. I hope she’s wrong.

The ES has been to two games for MSU at Maryland. The campus is pretty, and it takes a nice hike up a hill to get to the stadium. Both times they were fairly empty, but the last time I attended was the week after the death of Jordan McNair from heat stroke. The students protested against the football coach and the president and boycotted the football game. So there were about 10,000 MSU fans and 3,000 Maryland fans. It was weird. As for the rest of College Park, Maryland, outside of the campus, it basically looks like a mix of Melvindale and Inkster. All of the roads downtown were also being torn up, so it wasn’t very pretty. Not much to do, and a pretty rough town.

Hopefully, we can return the favor to beat the former Chancellor's school today...

In 2016, I was in an elevator in DC with the former Chancellor of the University of Maryland, Brit Kirwan. We did some work together for several years, and it was day after Maryland had beaten MSU at Maryland in 60 years. He said: “O my god, can you believe we beat Michigan State?” I laughed, shared with him the pin on my lapel and said, “I was there, I’m a Spartan, and you deserved to win.” He said, “thank you, it was a fun game.” He's a very nice, thoughtful man that always inspired me to do better. But, it sucked to kowtow to him after the Spartan loss.

That’s some of my Maryland experiences.

How does this all play into prognostications about MSU at Maryland tomorrow?” I dunno. What do you think?

Cat sez: Maryland 24-10. Where is Tom Izzo?
Sloth: By 6:30, we will all be resigned to another season of shit OR we will be irrationally enthusiastic about the season. I am leaning toward the former.

Big Bob: MD 31-17

Aussie Paul: MSU 44-0

Uncle Denny: MSU 31-28

PB Skooz: 34-21 Good Guys
Lansing Doc: MSU 23-19

Pontiac Keith: Maryland 28-13

SF Chock Maryland 28-10

ES sez, MSU surprises, 26-24

Michigan State's offense requires new teeth

2024-08-31T22:10:00.007-04:00

I have all 32 teeth. Let's see how many remain after this Spartan fall.

I am not going to Spartan Stadium on Saturday's this fall for tooth extractions. I won't do it.

It was disappointing. Too many mistakes everywhere by Michigan State, especially playing against a sub-par opponent in Florida Atlantic. We’re 1-0, but here are some of my thoughts.

About last night’s game. It didn't take a rocket scientist to figure out MSU is in trouble on the offensive line. Three yards and a cloud of dust?" We fed the ball to Carter 19 times for 2.5 yards a carry. That sucks. And, many of the plays were telegraphed. I'm sitting up in Section 121 with Sloth, the God Deieter, and the rest of the section, yelling "My God, stop running it up the middle!!!! It doesn't work!" Unfortunately, the coaches didn't listen and kept at it, with little result to show. Funny how I got cheers from the crowd: the thought being if we struggle to beat FAU, what the hell is gonna happen when Ohio State comes to town? Michigan State has lots of problems on the offensive interior. The offensive line could use my dead grandma to open up some holes. Everything between the tackles was inconsistent and for the most part unproductive. Let’s look.

MSU had 179 yards on the ground: that’s pretty good, but what is the problem is looking at efficiency:

https://msuspartans.com/sports/football/stats\

Though MSU averaged 4.8 yards per carry, the issue is that 63 was on one TD run by Lynch-Adams (who should clearly be the starter). Those are real yards and they count; if this is a consistent trend, I would pleasure it and sell the barn. But the problem is the rest of the game, and when you take out the run, MSU was 36 rushes for just 116 yards or a 3.2 average. That’s not good.

If you were at the game, as was I, the game was not fun to watch. Fairly boring, mistakes, poor tackling, and bad blocking. But what became apparent as the game wore on, was the ineffectiveness of the interior offensive line of MSU. It seemed like much of the time, QB Aidan Chiles was running for his life. That’s not a good sign.

Speaking of Chiles, he missed many wide-open throws, a wide-open TD opportunity that went three rows into the seats, and threw a very bad INT in what should have been a pix-6 as State was driving deep in FAU territory: we were gonna score, and my g-friend and I expected as much, to go up 23-3 and head for the exits. But, then the stupid throw by Chiles. It wasn’t good. Watch it on replay. He only completed 10 passes on 25 attempts, with 2 interceptions. According to MSU, that's a terrible 62.9 QB rating for Chiles (FAU's QB had an 84.2 rating, and that's accurate as he was the better QB in this game).

Look at this photo:

This is what you teach QBs NOT TO DO. Throw off your back foot falling back and making your shoulder do all the work. Hey, Chiles, your 18 years old, dude. Step into your throws and stop thinking your talent is going to bail you out. This is a big problem. He needs much more coaching on his decision-making. He did not throw well.

However, it wasn't all his fault. WR Montorie Foster dropped two passes, ran poor routes, and fumbled. He did not play well. He should not be the top option for Chiles, because he is unreliable. It's unfortunate, but the proof is in the play and not the potential. We need him to play better.

We also learned that RB Nate Carter was busy eating too many Cheetos and Pizza Hut this summer. 19 carries for 52 yards, mostly up the middle into madness, that's a whopping 2.5 yards per carry. Carter was completely useless in this game; and, while some of it was poor interior blocking and poor play calling, he had several opportunities to bounce outside. Instead, Carter just plowed into the middle like Jehuu Caulcrik or Earl Campbell, but with less mass and brains, making Carter just fall down. You can't just plow into the middle when everyone expects it and have Carter get the yards; it's like running into a brick wall; many times, poor ingenuity and poor execution. It reminded me of the John L Smith years, constantly underperforming and making mistakes. Luckily, we have an effective back in Lynch-Adams, and both his dashiness and his speed were clearly on display. He was the player of the game.

On defense, they were asked to do more than they should have. They held up pretty well, giving up just 248 total yards despite all the gifts from the MSU offense. And, they managed SEVEN sacks on a very mobile FAU quarterback. The talent difference really showed on the defensive front. MSU should be very tough here this season. I was pretty surprised about the play of #7 Jordan Turner and #8 Anthony Jones. They were all over the place and tackled well - it's a big positive for this team. They played well, and bailed out the offense on several occasions.

Bottom line, I really really REALLY do not want a season AGAIN where the defense is bailing out the offense. It makes for ugly wins, gutwrenching games, making things harder than they should be, and just making you want to crap your pants every week. It’s a lot more fun to watch the Detroit Lions than the MSU Spartans. Maybe Jonathan should call Dan Campbell? Hmmmm…..

MSU must beat Maryland next week. It will not be easy. There are a lot problems that must get fixed. And, it all starts with that interior offensive line. Tell Foster to catch the damn ball. And tell Aidan to chill and make better decisions. All of them have gotta play better.

GO GREEN.

Enlightened Spartan 2024 Preview

2024-08-30T11:48:00.006-04:00

Is this the official song for Michigan State this year? "Gouge Away"?...we can use a biblical performance by the Spartans this fall.

Well, Spartan fans. Here we are. 2024, bring it on. The one thing we can all agree on: we can only go UP. This is the 24th year the ES has published a Michigan State preview. I'm getting old.

It's interesting bringing in a new coach for the umpteenth time in my life (Daugherty, Stoltz, Muddy Waters, Perles, $aban, Williams, John L Smith, Dantonio, Tucker, now John A. Smith). I'm hopeful, and as the ES first predicted on October 6 of last year, Smith would leave his alma mater for greener pastures here in East Lansing. He's the right guy with recruiting/embracing NIL, tough running game, dynamic QB play, and a rugged defense. It fits the "tough guy" image of Michigan State that we can only hope pays off. At $7 million a year, we hope it pays off.

What does the depth chart tell us?

I'm very keen on watching the line play - on offense, we've plugged the holes with two transfer seniors (including Tanner Miller from Oregon State) joining returnee Brandon Baldwin, and two red-shirt sophomores. What's the improvement? From the weight room? Or is it better scheming? Or just talent? Our pass defense has been atrocious the past five years, in part because of poor ability to get to the quarterback putting sub-standard DBs on islands and getting burned time and again.

On defense, we have four transfers (Middle Tennessee, Old Dominion, Wisconsin, Georgia Tech). Reminds me a bit back in the day when John "Loser" Smith would plug the losses with transfers on the way to 7-5 seasons. We can do better, and watch #7 Jordan Turner, a senior out of Wisconsin playing linebacker. He should be damn good.

The bonus seems we have a good kicking game (the way it used to be pre-Mel), with Eckley at punter and Jonathan Kim at FGs. That should help the defense out. But the offense needs to move the ball to do its part. To that end, Aidan Chiles is an X-factor who has speed to burn and is a spot-on high level recruit who also transferred from Oregon State. He's lucky he gets to hand the ball off to Nate Carter, who was easily Michigan State's best RB last year. Fast, swifty, and with a punch: he reminds me of LJ Scott. We just need the boys up front to keep the enemy at bay and open them holes.

The first game against Florida Atlantic should be an interesting test. Below, we have some prognostications for the season; there will be another brief post with a preview of FAU shortly. But, this is what the pundits say about MSU this year:

1. What will be the MSU final record in 2024?

2. Will MSU go to a bowl game, and which one?

3. On a scale of 1-5 (1= bad, 5 = good), how do you think new QB Aidian Chiles will perform while making $1 Million in NIL money for the Spartans?

4. What will be the biggest win for MSU?

5. What will be the worst loss for MSU?

6. Are you going to an MSU away game? Which one and why?

7. Which musical act or song will best represent MSU football this year?

Aussie Paul:

1. 15-0

2. National Chamionship

3. 5

4. National Championship

5. N/A

6. No, too far

7. Slayer- "raining blood"

Pittsburgh Lee:

1. 6-6, maybe 7-5.

2. Whatever the Pizza Bowl is called these days.

3. Better than Noah Kim, worse than Connor Cook, but exciting to watch.

4. Win: UM.

5. Loss: OSU.

6. Every MSU home game is an away game for me, lol.

7. "My Erection is Over", a true punk classic.

Pontiac Keith:

I expect that we will be similar to what we were in sabans first year with us.

Mediocre or slightly above...

Lansing Cat:

We'll go 6-6, with our best win over Iowa. and our biggest loss against Michigan. Song for the year? "Do You Really Want to Hurt Me?" by Culture Club.

Big Bob:

1) MSU goes 6-6 this season

2) but no bowl game. The big jump in performance comes next year

3) Aiden Chiles will be a 3.1417 on a 1-5 scale

4) The biggest win in terms of points will be Prayery View but in terms of importance will be Iowa

5) The biggest loss will once again be to Ohio State

6) No away game this year but USC would be a great trip next season!

7) Without question, “I want my balls back” by The Exciting Sounds of Savo will best represent MSU this year

The ES:

1. 7-5.

2. Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl Presented by Gin & Juice by Dre and Snoop

3. 4 out of 5. Not his fault if he is running for his life.

4. Biggest win? Iowa

5. Biggest loss? Ohio State

6. Oregon, to go see my mom in Port Angeles, WA.

7. "Waiting Room" by Fugazi

Aug. 30: Florida Atlantic. W. 37-17.
Sep. 7. at Maryland. L. 20-24.
Sep 14. Prairie View A&M. W. 48-10.
Sep. 21. at Boston College. W. 31-20.
Sep. 28. Ohio State. L. 10-42.
Oct. 4. at Oregon. L. 17-45.

Oct. 11. BYE
Oct. 19. Iowa. W. 8-4.
Oct. 26. at Michigan. L. 16-35.
Nov. 2. Indiana. W. 32-27.

Nov. 9. BYE
Nov. 16. at Illinois. L. 20-26.
Nov. 22. Purdue. W. 35-14.
Nov. 30. Rutgers. W. 27-21.

ENJOY THE SEASON! GO BIG GREEN TOUCHDOWN MACHINE!!!

Izzo's interesting NIL/transfer policy spout at weekly presser

2024-02-19T17:37:00.004-05:00

Michigan State head men's basketball coach Tom Izzo had his weekly press conference today (video courtesy SpartanMag), and had some very interesting things to say about the direction of college basketball today with respect to NIL and its impact on the educational mission of college sports.

He was asked about the comments from St John's coach (the Creeper - yeah, that guy, Rick Pitino), in which Pitino ripped his basketball team for being "weak" and "atrocious". Izzo had not seen or read the comments from Pitino, so the commentary went off course and descended into comments from Izzo about the state of affairs of basketball players based on the current landscape involving NIL and the transfer portal.

Before you watch, please refer to the complicated and brief history in understanding the conversation, and the discussion by Izzo and reporters of the "3 years that everything has changed". This refers to the 2020 - 2021 COVID year, which involved the US Supreme Court in Alston v NCAA, and which led to the NCAA punting on athletes' right to make money off their publicity - despite the reality that doing nothing has a negative impact on competitive equity, which is one of the NCAA's main reasons for being in existence).

It was followed up by a very good question (I think from Graham Couch) referring to Izzo as the "revered statesman" of college basketball... which added to the discussion.

Look and listen from 27:12 to 34:05; there is a bit of discussion about game play, and he intersperses some of the issues with McDaniel at Michigan (who has been suspended for all road games) from a coach's point of view. It all provides some interesting perspectives on policy, politics, and how a very good coach [Izzo] is just trying to do the best damn job he can to coach young men within the landscape of college basketball.

Some Izzo quotes that impacted me:

On NIL/transfer: "the disadvantage is it brought a lot of tough times these past three years, because trying to fight it wasted a lot of my energy and time."

"I've tried in the new year, just to let it [NIL/transfer portal issues] go... its very difficult."

"I will state to the day I die: If this is best for all parties involved, someone has got to prove it to me. ... the unitendend consequences that all this has brought is difficult and you won't find out for 5-10-15 years down the road."

"If at any time in any profession, there is not the ability to hold people accountable, I don't see benefits in your job, my job, or their job. "

ES Preview: Let's Get This Season Over in Detroit

2023-11-24T17:12:00.007-05:00

Michigan State Spartans (4-6, 2-6) vs #11 Penn State Nittany Lions (9-2, 6-2)
November 24, 2023. 7:30 pm.
Ford Field, Detroit

Weather: it's in a dome doesn't matter. Outside, it's 32 degrees and sunny.

TV: NBC

Sagarin Ratings: Penn State #6, MSU #73

Line Outta Vegas: Nittany Lions by 23

Just waiting to anoint Jonathan Smith as our new coach. Thank God this season is coming to an end. MSU, while playing better as of late, just isn't good enough to hang in with Penn State. The Detroit Lions' Thanksgiving magic will rub off on the Spartans.

ES sez: Penn State 32, Michigan State 10.

Cat says: Penn State 34 - 7

The Toilet Bowl: Michigan State at Little Pink Houses

2023-11-18T10:46:00.006-05:00

The Toilet Bowl is being hosted in Indiana today at noon! Tune in, or clean up!

Michigan State Spartans (3-7/1-6) at Indiana Hoosiers (3-7/1-6)
November 18, 2023. 12 noon.
Memorial Stadium, Bloomington, IN

TV: BTN
Weather: 50 and sunny

Sagarin Ratings: MSU #79, Indiana #86
Line outta Vegas: Mellencamp favored by 3.5

So, we welcome the Toilet Bowl. Who is the worst team in the Big Ten? Is it Indiana and their precursor to Kid Rock, John Cougar Mellencamp? Or, is it Michigan State, which spent yesterday on the ice hockey surface in East Lansing beating #1 Wisconsin? (ES was there, what a GREAT game). By the way, MSU beat Indy's neighbor, Butler, by 20 on the hard court last night as well with its men's team. Can MSU make it a trifecta with hockey, hoops. and football??? That's our only hope.

Who is worse on the gridiron?

We should be focused on other things than football. If you are one of 50,000 people to tune into the game on BTN, you're a solid alumni homer.

This should be a game filled with errors on all sides of the ball. It will be like watching a volleyball game, and not a football game.

ES sez: No Bowling Mark Cuban 19, No Bowling Magic Johnson 16

ES Preview: Spartans at the Buckeyes

2023-11-11T10:07:00.003-05:00

Michigan State Spartans (3-6, 1-5) at #1 Ohio State (9-0, 6-0)
November 11, 2023. 7:30 pm ET.
Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH

Weather: 42, clear skies. No wind.
TV: NBC

Sagarin Ratings: MSU #75, OSU #2
Line outta Vegas: OSU by 31.5. Yup, that's a 5+ TD favorite

We won! Yup, the Spartoonies limited their turnovers vs Nebraska, collected some turnovers, and hung on late to win 20-17. It is now officially NOT the worst season for MSU in 100 years. Whew.

Unfortunately, now we travel to face #1 Ohio State... in Columbus. Gulp.

Not much to write about here - a complete and utter mismatch, and the Buckeyes should clean up. It was hopeful that Rutgers (who MSU shoulda beat) hung on for some time last week against OSU... but that was in New Jersey. In Ohio, with a struggling Spartan team facing the top team in the land. MSU's defense is the lone bright spot this year. But, ya gotta score. The offense has been horrific. MSU is playing better than earlier in the year... but against #1 OSU: this ain't Nebraska, Rutgers, or Minnesoter. This is a juggernaut. Not much chance in this one. Don't think I have ever in my life seen 98% on ESPN's matchup predictor...

ES sez... Ohio State 41, MSU 10.

ES Preview: MSU battles the Corn

2023-11-04T11:33:00.005-04:00

Michigan State Spartans (2-6/0-5) host Nebraska Cornhuskers (5-3/3-2)
November 4, 2023. 12 Noon ET.
Spartan Stadium, East Lansing.

Weather: 50 and cloudy.
TV: FS1.

Sagarin Ratings: Nebraska #49, MSU #80
Line Outta Vegas: Corn by 3.5

First off, sorry about last week: the ES was out in Washington State helping out with some family issues. Think that might be the first time the ES missed a game preview in the 22 years of existence. I did watch the game in Port Angeles, WA, the day after my laptop was stolen. Back in Michigan now, back on my feet.

As for the game this week, there again doesn't seem to be much hope. MSU is having its worst full season since 1982 under Muddy Waters (2-9, but the wins were in the Big Ten), or since 1917 under Chester Brewer (0-9). MSU can change that narrative with one more win in the final four: the Corn, the Bucks, the Hoosiers, and the Lions. It is an uphill climb for a team that is not very good.

The problem with Nebraska today is the Corn have won three in a row: Purdon't, NW, Illini. Momentum is on their side. Yet, the Corn were beat down 45-7 by scUM, similar to MSU's drubbing. Does that provide hope?

Nebraska and MSU both have decent defenses. Both defenses are stout but make mistakes, and both offenses are offensive. MSU's special teams have been a disaster with mistakes, despite the big legs of our kickers. And, the coaching of Barnett & Co. is not situational and is instead reactionary, leading to mistakes in the 4th quarter.

The ES is gonna sit this one out and watch at home.

Nebraska 17, MSU 13.

The definition that is Arrogance in Ann Arbor:

2023-10-27T11:31:00.006-04:00

For your reading enjoyment... read below the image for the whole kit and kaboodle.

A few years ago, I sat down with a former NCAA enforcement officer to compare notes now that their career in Indianapolis was over.

Exhausted by years of feckless bureaucracy, they summarized the job of enforcement in a way I’ve never forgotten: “We don’t catch the good cheaters. That’s basically impossible with the way it’s all set up. And most of them are pretty good at cheating. We catch the bad ones, the dumb ones, and it’s really hard to even do that.”

Michigan is going to get caught for stealing signs because it is incredibly, hilariously bad at cheating.

As of this writing, evidence of Michigan football’s overly telegraphed and woefully concealed national sign-stealing campaign is still trickling out: Connor Stalions, the Wolverines staffer accused of running the operation, apparently used the public setting on his Venmo account to pay a network of sideline recorders, a move rank-and-file drug dealers would scoff at. Stalions also reportedly purchased tickets to at least 12 other Big Ten schools on his own accounts, including Ohio State’s win over Penn State last weekend. Then there’s the video that appears to show Stalions standing next to Michigan’s defensive coordinator during the Ohio State game last year. Weird! My personal favorite anecdote (so far) is that a Tennessee message board captured the entire plot in action 10 months ago, but no one noticed or believed or cared.

NCAA probe began after firm obtained evidence from Michigan computers

Before we revel too much in college athletics’ most pretentious brand suffering this slapstick indignity, understand how silly and how widespread the actual crime is: Everyone — and I literally mean everyone in college football — steals signs. This is why it’s almost certain we won’t see an opposing coach condemn Michigan publicly.

Sign-stealing happens among players in live game action. It happens across the sideline between coaching staffs during games. And, yes, it happens during game-planning when opposing teams review game tape. Schools send each other their game footage as a sort of forced courtesy.

One time I bumped into a staffer in an elevator during a game, and he explained he was rushing from the press box to the sideline after charting the opposing team’s signs for a quarter. “Been stealin’ signals” was his actual quote. Then he asked how my kids were doing.

Despite the ubiquity of the practice (or maybe because of it), sign-stealing in football doesn’t create the kind of advantage it does in a sport such as baseball, as Colorado Coach Deion Sanders explained this week when he told reporters: “You could have someone’s whole game plan. They could mail it to you. You still got to stop it.” Sanders might be the most overexposed individual in the sport right now, but the former two-sport star is also the most qualified for this analysis.

It’s also important to note that college football could fix this tomorrow and catch up with the rest of the sport. The NCAA doesn’t allow certain in-game technology (such as helmet radios) that is commonplace at the high school and NFL levels.

Then there’s the matter of “getting caught” and what those ramifications will be, if any. At present, NCAA enforcement is a hapless shell. Since its amateurism business model suffered a death blow in the Supreme Court two years ago, enforcement has devolved from its already low bar into something even less. This is the same NCAA that actively avoided even trying to punish Baylor for covering up and obstructing investigations of systemic sexual assaults. Expecting some kind of takedown of this year’s Michigan team, which is on a path toward another College Football Playoff appearance at the least, is foolish. (One caveat: If more information surfaces pushing the scandal past the videotaping of sidelines, there’s potential for the Big Ten Conference office to get involved and levy its own immediate penalties.)

There’s a chance Coach Jim Harbaugh will face a charge of failing the Head Coach Responsibility Act, a blanket policy wherein the NCAA says anything that happens within a football program can be tied to the head coach as supervisor, but it’s common knowledge in the industry that Harbaugh is well-lawyered and perpetually on the cusp of an NFL return. Even if this “sticks,” it won’t significantly dent, let alone punish, anyone involved, except maybe Stalions, who has been suspended as the NCAA investigates.

So if the crime in question is commonplace and the cops sent to punish it are entirely Keystone, why is this a big deal? Why have so many in the industry, myself included, met this particular NCAA transgression with such mirth?

Because it’s Michigan. Because it’s Harbaugh. Because this is the single entity that has sworn, screamed and evangelized that everyone is cheating but them, that Michigan is not only the only one doing it the right way but the only one capable of it.

“It’s hard to beat the cheaters,” Harbaugh famously told Michigan hagiographer John U. Bacon. Bacon used the quote, in reference to Harbaugh’s opinion on recruiting in the SEC, as a chapter header in his hilariously titled “Overtime: Jim Harbaugh and the Michigan Wolverines at the Crossroads of College Football.” I guess we figured out which way they crossed.

For decades, Michigan positioned itself against the cultural and economic changes in the sport, no matter how obvious or uncomfortable, as better-than. If Michigan was successful, it was setting the impossible model of competing with the Alabamas on the field and the Ivies in the classroom. But as the Bowl Championship Series era dawned in the late 1990s, the Wolverines became also-rans after making bad coaching hires both too outsider and too insider.

Rather than self-examine, Michigan’s sizable, moneyed fandom maintained that the success of programs such as archrival Ohio State and the heathen SEC was tainted by compromised morality and NCAA rule-breaking. While those programs hoisted trophies, Michigan boasted merit badges for a morality it alone defined. When you can stare directly at the widespread practice of millionaire coaching staffs breaking rules by dropping thousands of dollars to athletes living below the poverty line and cry foul because of the letter of the NCAA law, it’s evident your excess privilege has choked off the morality centers of your brain.

Then came Harbaugh, another native son but one with an unimpeachable résumé of elevating Stanford, a brutally tough academic school, into a dominant Power Five program. Like any master politician, Harbaugh knew where his base was starving and amped up the “cheaters” rhetoric both to explain away his early struggles and to justify the excessively slow pace the Wolverines took to returning to national prominence.

The problem is now that Michigan has been made great again — the Wolverines are arguably the best team in the nation entering this weekend — it can’t do the one thing Michigan has staked its entire identity on: claiming the moral high ground.

The exposure of Stalions’s hilariously overorganized sign-stealing campaign comes on the heels of Harbaugh serving a three-game suspension for NCAA violations during the coronavirus pandemic recruiting “dead period,” as well as refusing to cooperate with the NCAA during that investigation. During his absence, Michigan players held up four fingers on the field to … honor (?) Harbaugh in a gesture that made it seem as if their coach had died and not simply been pinched for run-of-the-mill recruiting no-nos. Following his return, Harbaugh publicly promised a new “gold standard” for Michigan compliance with NCAA bylaws, a public attempt to reinstate his piousness.

Well, that lasted a month.

The real and unavoidable punishment for the Wolverines is in progress and will play out in the coming weeks: the asterisk rivals and media alike will attempt to pin on a potential national title season. As of now, Michigan is in a frantic race between now and January to undo the morality value prop it has foisted on the sport for decades and, at least right now, it feels impossible it will escape the dreaded “Yeah, but” response that could haunt this team’s potential title forever.

If that happens, Michigan will serve out a worst-case scenario it itself defined: another big-time winner who did it the wrong way. That the Wolverines could experience the pinnacle of success without telling you how different or refined or apart from the chattel of this sport they are is a fate worse than losing to Ohio State.

It’s just sign-stealing, though. All the cheaters do it.

ES Preview: Spartans host Cheating Jesus & his Walmart Wolverines

2023-10-21T09:31:00.004-04:00

Prima Donna Jesus Harbaugh is the second coming for the Arrogant Nation in Ann Arbor

MSU Spartans (2-4, 0-3) host #2 Arrogant Arseholes (7-0, 4-0)
October 21, 2023. 7:30 pm.
Spartan Stadium, East Lansing

TV: NBC/Peacock
Weather: 49 and rain. Cold and miserable.

Sagarin Ratings: scUM #1, MSU #61
Line Outta Vegas: scUM by 24.5

First off, if you think Jesus Harbaugh doesn't know anything about breaking NCAA rules by allowing his staff to spy on other teams, then you are higher than a kite and have so much kool-aid in you, that you can't think straight. What makes it so stupid is that his team is far more talented and better: Harbaugh's actions defy logic and necessity. Yo, coach: Put your team on the field without shenanigans, and they'll likely win -- by a landslide. Your actions, Harbaugh, minimize who you are as a person and as a coach. It makes you look really stupid. Didn't you learn anything about integrity from your visit to the Pope? But, the scUM fan base doesn't care, a la the Fab Five - so long as you win, rules be damned. The Walmart Wolverines are blind to the obvious and will always bow to the holy grail that is Harbaugh.

Integrity on the left, the cheating liar on the right

Hey, at least we fired our coach, and forced our previous coach to retire. Integrity.

Back to the game: Michigan State's defense has played well the past two weeks, at Iowa and at Rutgers. It's the Kim offense (Iowa) and the boneheaded special teams play (Rutgers) that has cost Spartans their games in the 4th quarters. As for Michigan? They start slow but second halves are explosive: not sure what Harbaugh is serving up at halftimes, but it is working. Maybe Harlan Barnett can take a hint.

I'm banking on MSU hanging in there but folding, as usual, late in the game. The Spartans are the most mistake-prone college team in America. There's not much more to say, other than the last thing Harbaugh needed to do is to hire a dummy to go scout Rutgers and Michigan State mid-season. Barring a complete Michigan collapse and a miracle from the Pope's boss, this is a foregone conclusion.

ES sez: Cheating Jesus 31, Fired Masturbator 10.

ES Preview: Spartans at Birthplace of Football

2023-10-14T09:22:00.005-04:00

Michigan State Spartans (2-3, 0-2) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (4-2, 1-2)

October 14, 2023. Noon ET.

SHI Stadium, Piscataway, NJ

Weather: 52, RAIN, RAIN, RAIN all game long
TV: BTN

Sagarin Ratings: Rutgers #51, MSU #65
Line Outta Vegas: Rutgers by 4.5

Let it rain, rain, rain. ES remembers going to see MSU beat Rutgers about a decade ago, with the RU players touching the statue of the birthplace of college football as they entered the stadium. Really liked Rutgers, the city next to campus; we hung out with Connor Cook's family at a tailgate before the game. RU is an underrated Big Ten town.

That said, this is a game of defenses, and pathetic offenses. Actually, MSU has shown it can move the ball between the 20s, only to make mistake after mistake after mistake on offense - particularly from QB Noah Kim. Kim will be benched for Hauser (thank God!) just because he is too much of a liability. Time to start anew. If MSU can get its running game going in the rain, it can keep the time of possession and turn it into an ugly slugfest. RU held Michigan to 31 points, beat a bad Northwestern squad, and lost to a bad Wisconsin team. RU can run, but MSU has done well stopping the run this season. Rutgers has zero passing game. The statistical advantage is to MSU on offense and RU on defense -> except for the turnovers, of which the Spartans are next to last in the NCAA. Interestingly enough, MSU's QB Noah Kim is (gulp) 95th in the country in Passing Efficiency (119.0 rating) which is TERRIBLE. Rutgers' QB Gavin Wimsatt is WORSE at 98th in the country with a 117.4 rating. But, MSU played well at Iowa except for the damned turnovers, outgaining Iowa by 150 total yards. Turnovers, turnovers, turnovers gotta stop. They will be reduced today.

This has the makings of a game that can set football back 70 years.

Here's the statistical breakdown after 5/6 games, per game averages except for turnover totals.

	MSU	RU
Total Yards	371.4	334.5
Yards Passing	251.4	161.2
Yards Rushing	120.0	173.3
Yards Allowed	341.8	282.8
Pass Yards Allowed	226.8	165.2
Rush Yards Allowed	115.0	117.7
Turnover Margin	-6	+4

Prognostications:

J - MSU Breakout, Spartans 35-31
Big Bob: Rutgers 27-14, with Doogie Houser getting first start
Cat: MSU 14-13
Keith: Rutgers 31-24

ES Sez: MSU 20-18

New MSU coach? Jonathan Smith from Oregon State

2023-10-06T01:14:00.000-04:00

Maybe the next coach of Michigan State?
Oregon State's Jonathan Smith brings no baggage and WINS

The ES is fed up with all the "Urban Meyer for coach" crap. Meyer hired an individual who beat his wife, was involved in a lap dance, and also in recruiting violations. Many in the Spartan Nation are asking, "why don't you just want a winner, he is guaranteed." Meyer is not guaranteed. He would never offer a guarantee to MSU, so there is no guarantee. People, show me ONE STUDY that shows paying more for a coach equates to more wins.

I thought so. There is no study. Why? Because football is a zero-sum game: one team wins, another team loses. So, the chances of winning is gambling with good money.

To MSU Trustees: Don't spend so much money on a coach without any guarantee of victory! To his credit, even UM coach Harbaugh cut his contract in half before he could prove his teams could succeed to the promised land, aka CFP.

As my friend Paul from Australia said - and he and I graduated back in 1990/91: "I don't know enough about college fb to speak intelligently. I would settle for a decent human being."

What a brillant quote. A decent human being. OK, so let's check Urban Meyer off our list.

Let's be fair: the last three hires from MSU were unexpected: John L Smith from Louisville, Mark Dantonio from Cincy, and Mel Tucker from Colorado. I expect the same: a name noone is talking about.

I give you: Jonathan Smith, of Oregon State. Personally, if I was coach at Oregon State in Corvallis, I would never leave. It is the most beautiful campus in America. I want to die in Corvallis, or Cannon Beach, or anywhere on the Oregon Coast. That said, Smith is young. His team is ranked #15 at 4-1, and last year was 10-3. The year before, 7-6. But he has some impressive wins on his resume: #10 Utah last week, a 30-3 shellacking of SEC Florida in the Vegas Bowl, win over Oregon last year, won at USC in 2021... he has a strong resume. And, he has no problems.

I think this is our guy: Jonathan Smith. My contract deal: Offer him maybe $1M up front, then $750K per win. The more he wins, the more he makes. Purely an incentive-based contract. Take it or leave it. But this is his chance, and our chance.

Thoughts? Go GREEN.

ES Game Day: Spartans travel to Ugly Chickens

2023-09-30T08:50:00.006-04:00

Michigan State Spartans (2-2, 0-1) at Iowa Ugly Chickens (3-1, 0-1)
Iowa City, IA. Kinnick Stadium
September 30, 2023. 7:30 ET.

Weather: Hot, 83 and sunny.
TV: NBC/Peacock

Sagarin Ratings: Iowa #31, MSU #63
Line Outta Vegas: Iowa favored by 10.5

The ES is busy this weekend camping up north in beautiful Michigan, gonna watch the game in and around Mackinac Island. Need power and wifi. Help!

But, the ES might not be missing much. This is a matchup of defenses vs woeful offenses. Iowa will double up the score on MSU, but it won't be pretty. This game should set college football back at least 50 years.

ES sez: Iowa 18, MSU 9.

Thoughts on MSU and Maryland: We're just not very good

2023-09-24T10:20:00.005-04:00

The ES with some initial thoughts on the loss to Maryland:

1. #43 Spencer remains completely out of position and is entirely lost on defense. Other than being a body, he is 100% ineffective at DB. Conversely #21 Tatum is playing by far the best secondary ball on the team, is a hard hitter, and is a playmaker.

2. When MSU started moving up on the wideouts and dropping the 10-yard cushion in the second half, they started playing better in coverage - especially, combined with... pressure...

3. It's amazing what defensive pressure does - against a mobile and well-armed quarterback like Tuagoliova, as MSU brought pressure it disrupted rhythm and forced errant throws. What took DC Scottie Hazelton so long to figure this out? The man needs to be shown the door.

4. The defensive interior played well most of the game. They just need help from better coaching, better secondary play, and a far better offense.... which leads to some real criticism:

5. Noah Kim at QB is not the answer. Way, way, WAY TOO MANY mistakes, all game long. I was praying for it to get better, and it really didn't. Nearly everytime MSU began to get a rhythm on offense, Kim would screw it up: throw an INT, sail passes (including missing a wide-open TD), or at the end take a 20-yard sack instead of just throwing the ball away. As competition improves, he is showing he is not very good. Two or three other passes from Kim should have been intercepted, including terrible screen passes. Very, very poor QB play out of Kim.

6. Receivers have got to help out the QBs. They can't drop dimes thrown into their hands. Too, too many dropped passes, including the potential TD pass to Foster. Lack of focus. This must improve.

7. Inconsistency in play calling, and a complete lack of misdirection plays vs. Maryland. MSU stalled with too many mistakes, not giving the offense any opportunity to use some of its speed to put Maryland's defense out of position and take advantage.

8. Penalties, penalties. At the worst times. The Spartans need to play smarter and quit it with the infractions. We can't afford any of them.

9. Didn't understand why MSU is not trying harder to get #5 Carter into the open field. He needs to have a wheel route, put into the slot for a slant play, or catch a ball (any ball) out of the backfield in open space. He's a dynamic runner who has not showed his full potential. Very disappointing by OC Jay Johnson not to find space for Carter.

Bottom line: Michigan State is not being coached well, and is not playing complimentary football, asking the defense far too many times to bail out its pathetic sputtering offensive offense. To add insult to injury, the kicking game had a FG blocked, a 20 yard punt into the wind (after the Kim sack, it was basically a turnover), and no great returns. This is not a good football team. MSU's O/U of 5.5 wins for the season may be a stretch. With the transfer portal and redshirting coming up in the next 1-2 weeks, things may get significantly worse for MSU. I feel bad for this team and the players, because they've been dealt a bad hand in the middle of the season. But, no excuses. Suit up, coach, and play better.

ES Game Day: Fear the Turtle and MSU should fire Scottie Hazelton

2023-09-23T09:19:00.008-04:00

Scottie Hazelton has resorted to prayer as his only option with his MSU defense

Michigan State Spartans (2-1) host Maryland Terrapins (3-0)
Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI
September 23, 2023. 3:30 pm ET kickoff
TV: NBC/Peacock
Weather: beautiful, 75 and sunny.

Sagarin Ratings: MSU #51, Maryland #40
Line outta Vegas: Maryland favored by 7.5

When was the last time Maryland was favored on the road in a Big Ten game (other than Rutgers), let alone at MSU? My guess it has never happened in East Lansing... possibly when Bear Bryant coached Maryland in 1945, but they didn't play MSU. That would've likely been the only time ever. Ugh. Just ugly. Last year, Maryland was favored by 8 at home and won by 14 (27-13 final score).

Where's the blame? Lots to go around. Today's blame game lies on the shoulders of Scottie Hazelton. Let's just use data to share about Scottie at Michigan State since he started in 2020 as Defensive Coordinator. Not exactly a stout defense. What ever happened to the "No Fly Zone"? Beyond that, MSU is hemorrhaging 400+ yards per game on defense consistently.

Total defensive statistics

2020 (2-5 record):
Total points per game allowed: 35
Yards per game allowed: 397
Passing yards per game allowed: 239

2021 (11-2 record):
Total points per game allowed: 25
Yards per game allowed: 442
Passing yards per game allowed: 325

2022 (5-7 record):
Total points per game allowed: 27
Yards per game allowed: 417
Passing yards per game allowed: 238

2023 (2-1 record):
Total points per game allowed: 21
Yards per game allowed: 375
Passing yards per game allowed: 250

The problem is worse when you break it into real (or ranked) competition, with Hazelton's defense being gouged on average well over 450 yards per game. Look at some of the games in the past two years:

2023:

#8 UW (lost, 41-7)
Total yards allowed: 713
Passing yards. allowed: 536

2022:

#11 Penn State (lost 35-16)
Total yards allowed: 410
Passing yards allowed: 250

#17 Illinois (won 23-15)
Total yards allowed: 441
Passing yards allowed: 288

#4 Michigan (lost 29-7)
Total yards allowed: 443
Passing yards allowed: 167

#3 Ohio State (lost 49-20)
Total yards allowed: 614
Passing yards allowed: 337

Now we play Maryland, coming into today's stint 3-0 and averaging 480 yards per game, including 304 yards through the air from Tua's brother.

After today's torching, it will be time to FIRE SCOTTIE HAZELTON. It's been long-past time to send the joker packing.

Prognosticators:

Sloth: 31-10, Terps
Cat: 38-21, Maryland
ES sez: Maryland 33 - MSU 22.