Eye in the Sky

Agriculture Outlook

2012-01-19T23:54:00.001-05:00

Talking with some of my former associates, here are some weather/commodity topics that have been discussed over the last few days.

Globally, La Nina conditions have strengthened over the last 30 days, with stronger cold Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies observed across the equatorial Pacific, extending northward along the western coastline of North America. The above map (from NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory) shows the extent of the cold mass, which has expanded in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres since last month’s view. In addition, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) shown below (Australia Bureau of Met) has exhibited a strong shift into positive phase, which is another signal that La Nina conditions will continue to remain in place, even if this is the peak, driving the global pattern over the next few months.

What does this mean for agricultural commodity interests, particularly those in South America? Broadly, the pattern is biased towards more dryness to persist across southern Brazil and northern Argentina. It is still early to say that the current state of dryness in the region, particularly in Argentina, is similar to the severe 2008/09 drought, but most of the signals are pointing towards a lack of moisture for a region that desperately needs rainfall. In spite of some rain over the past week, the monthly and seasonal profile for this region has been one that depicts a moisture-deficient pattern, and the rain is coming a little too late. The map below shows Outgoing Longwave Radiation anomalies over the last 30 days, and the positive anomaly values seen over the Centre-South of Brazil and Argentina are indicative of a lack of cloud cover and rainfall.

The short range outlook over the next couple of weeks is for a slightly cooler pattern to materialize in the short range (days 1-5/6), transitioning back to a warm pattern around two weeks from now into early February. In addition, the precipitation pattern does not look favorable for the remainder of January into February. The lack of precipitation and elevated temperatures seen in January will have an impact on the Centre-South sugarcane region, and while the market has been looking at a positive physical balance for the 2011/12 crop year, I think that the potential for negative yield impacts for Brazil’s crop in the current and coming crop year (12/13) will add some upside risk to price, even with healthy numbers coming from India and Europe (beet). For the last few months, while many analysts have been advocating decreasing long positions in sugar, I've viewed this pattern in the C-S as a justification to take the opposite side....the market view might now reflect a change in sentiment.

For grains & oilseeds, this is also has the potential to be an unfavorable pattern for the corn and soybean crops. Field reports that I have been receiving have been describing stunted growth for both corn and beans across the C-S (Parana, Rio Grande Do Sul and Sao Paulo states) and even more pronounced negative effects in Argentina (most notably in eastern Cordoba). Weather observations and satellite derived crop indices are supporting these field observations. Beyond sugarcane, my next concern is for Argentina’s soybeans, as the critical flowering stage will likely be curtailed by the current pattern.

Awesome time lapse video from the International Space Station

2012-01-19T09:04:00.003-05:00

Earth | Time Lapse View from Space, Fly Over | NASA, ISS from Michael König on Vimeo.

worth watching the entire video

Princeton Plasma Physics Lab Spring Colloquia

2012-01-17T23:57:00.000-05:00

January 17, 2012	PLEASE NOTE: Tuesday Solar Probe Plus Spacecraft Dr. Justin C. Kasper Harvard University View Abstract
January 25, 2012	Micro-Plasmas and Nanotechnology Dr. Mohan Sankaran Case Western Reserve University
February 01, 2012	Machine Learning, Reasoning, and Natural Language Processing Professor Dan Roth University of Illinois - Urbana-Champaign
February 10, 2012	PLEASE NOTE: Friday Imaging the Antikythera Mechanism Dr. Tom Malzbender Hewlett Packard
February 15, 2012	A Slightly Longer History of E=mc² or How I Came to Hate 4/3 Dr. Tony Rothman Princeton University
February 22, 2012	Web 3.0 Emerging Professor James Hendler Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute
February 29, 2012	TBA Professor Bart Selman Cornell University
March 07, 2012	TBA Professor Sarbani Basu Yale University
March 14, 2012	TBA Professor Stephen Stearns Yale University
March 21, 2012	Collapse of the Honey Bee Population Around the Globe Professor Marla Spivak University of Minnesota
March 28, 2012	Ecological Lessons Learned 30 Years After Mount Saint Helens Dr. Virginia Dale Oak Ridge National Laboratory
April 04, 2012	Stellarator Development Dr. David Gates Princeton University
April 11, 2012	DHS Critical Infrastructure Protection Program Dr. Mitchell Erickson Department of Homeland Security
April 18, 2012	The Interior of Planets Professor Sabine Stanley University of Toronto
April 25, 2012	Soft Materials for Microelectricomechanical Systems Dr. John Rogers University of Illinois
May 09, 2012	Z-Machine Mark Herrmann Sandia National Laboratory
May 16, 2012	Technical Challenges of Nuclear Disarmament Verification Dr. Alexander Glaser Princeton University
May 23, 2012	Ocean Robotic Networks Dr. Oscar Schofield Rutgers University
May 30, 2012	TBA Dr. James Stone Princeton University

Rutgers Journal Club in Evolution focusing on Darwin this spring

2012-01-04T23:19:00.001-05:00

The Rutgers Journal Club in Evolution is focusing on Darwin this spring:

Please join us and read:

Darwin's The Origin of Species

in Journal Club in Evolution Spring 2012
on Tuesdays 9:15-10:35, 145 ENR, Cook Campus

We will read and discuss one chapter a week, paired with a modern
research paper that addresses similar questions in evolution.

The Origin of Species is available for free online, and the modern
paper will be posted on the Rutgers’ Evolution Mailing List
(subscribe at https://email.rutgers.edu/mailman/listinfo/evolution_ru).

Preliminary schedule and what to read
Jan 17: Introduction, Chapter 1 - Variation under Domestication
Jan 24: Chapter 2 - Variation under Nature
Jan 31: Chapter 3 - Struggle for Existence
Feb 7: Chapter 4 - Natural Selection
Feb 14: Chapter 5 - Laws of Variation
Feb 21: Chapter 6 - Difficulties on Theory
Feb 28: Chapter 7 - Instinct
March 6: Chapter 8 - Hybridism
March 20: Chapter 9 - On the Imperfection of the Geological Record
March 27: Chapter 10 - On the Geological Succession of Organic Beings
April 3: Chapter 11 - Geographical Distribution
April 10: Chapter 12 - Geographical Distribution /continued
April 17: Chapter 13 - Mutual Affinities of Organic Beings
April 24: Chapter 14 - Recapitulation and Conclusion

For questions, contact Lena Struwe & Siobain Duffy
struwe@aesop.rutgers.edu / duffy@aesop.rutgers.edu

Link to flyer here.

Feed issues in 2012 brewing?

2011-12-29T01:18:00.003-05:00

The chart below (with data compiled from FAO) shows the global Stocks-to-Use ratio for cereals, and it is particularly noteworthy to pay attention to the 2011/12 S-U for coarse grains. While the production estimates favor higher output in major origins, with protein demand on the increase, low carryover may lead to supply problems beyond 2Q12. Worth keeping an eye on as we get into the new year.

December T-Storms

2011-12-21T21:46:00.004-05:00

A nice line of thunderstorms just pushed through the Lehigh Valley.

Dark Knight Rises Trailer

2011-12-20T14:44:00.002-05:00

Turn volume very loud when watching.

Nice description of the Rutgers Slocum Glider

2011-12-16T11:46:00.002-05:00

Rutgers Evolution Journal Club

2011-12-14T20:58:00.002-05:00

The Spring 2012 Cook Evolution Journal Club (AKA 16:215:550 Advanced Evolution) will be held Tuesdays 9:15-10:35 in the ENR 145 conference room. Lena Struwe (struwe@aesop.rutgers.edu) and Siobain Duffy (duffy@aesop.rutgers.edu) will be coordinating the class this semester.

Below is a reprint of the description of the course, and a list of what chapters from On the Origin of Species we will be discussing each day. At the first session we will discuss Chapter 1, and we'll divvy up the remaining 13 weeks among members of the course and interested other parties. Each chapter will then be paired with a modern (no earlier than 2002) paper on the topic, chosen by the person taking the lead on that chapter.

We are not picking an official edition of OOS -- as long as you have an unabridged version, any edition should be fine.

=========================

We will read one chapter a week, paired with a modern (less than 10 years old) research paper that addresses similar questions in evolution, but of course with 150 years of methodological progress since Darwin's thoughts of the 1850s. We think this will provide both a better of evolutionary thinking over the ages, interesting contrasts depending on available methodology and knowledge.

This is an preliminary outline for Spring 2012, with one chapter from Origin of Species per week, and suggested associated evolutionary topics.

1/17: Chapter 1 - Variation Under Domestication

1/24: Chapter 2 - Variation Under Nature - Species boundaries, What is a species?, Subspecies, Varieties, Classification.

1/31: Chapter 3 - Struggle for Existence - Competition over resources, invasive species, climate change

2/7: Chapter 4 - Natural Selection - natural selection, sexual selection, speciation, extinction

2/14: Chapter 5 - Laws of Variation - population genetics, DNA, evolution of the eye and wings, acclimatisation, reversal of characters

2/21: Chapter 6 - Difficulties on Theory- lack of transitional fossils, imperfect organs, perfectly adapted organs, misclassified organisms

2/28: Chapter 7 - Instinct - evolution of behavior, migration, learning, parasitism, slave-making ants

3/6: Chapter 8 - Hybridism - hybrid speciation in plants and animals, hybrid sterility, hybrid vigor

3/20: Chapter 9 - On the Imperfection of the Geological Record - missing links, time frames, sudden arrival of fossils in Cambrium

3/27: Chapter 10 - On The Geological Succession of Organic Beings - evolution is slow (or maybe not!), extinction is forever, parallel evolution, evolutionary rate changes, molecular clocks

4/3: Chapter 11 - Geographical Distribution- biogeography, present distributions part of evolutionary past, barriers, dispersal of organisms, vicariance, spatial patterns

4/10: Chapter 12 - Geographical Distribution /continued - island biogeography, etc.

4/17: Chapter 13 - Mutual Affinities of Organic Beings: Morphology: Embryology: Rudimentary Organs - natural classifications, analogous and adaptive characters, ontogeny, loss of organs (eyes, color, etc.)

4/24: Chapter 14 - Recapitulation and Conclusion - the standing of evolutionary understanding today, evolution in the classroom, creationism

2011-12-14T15:01:00.002-05:00

Home of the Hubble Program Management Office

Rutgers seminar today

2011-12-13T10:36:00.001-05:00

IMCS Seminar

Presenter Dr. Gema Martinez Mendez MARUM – Zentrum für Marine Umweltwissenschaften, Universität Bremen

Title: Paleorecords from the "Warm Water Route" of the Global Ocean Circulation and Perspectives into the "Cold Water Route"

Tuesday, December 13th, 2011 11:00 AM Alampi Room 71 Dudley Road Cook Campus

Abstract
The Atlantic Ocean exports waters at depth to the rest of the ocean basins. This water lost should be compensated by an entering of waters at other isopycnal levels. There are two main routes of reentering of waters into the Atlantic Basin, the so called “Cold Water” and “Warm Water” routes. The names respond to the characteristics of the waters that are transferred. The “Cold Water Route” is formed by the entering of cold, fresh waters from the Pacific to the Atlantic through the Drake Passage while the “Warm Water Route” transfers warm, saline surface and upper thermocline waters from the Indian into the Atlantic by virtue of Agulhas Rings and Filaments (e.g. Gordon, 2003). Gordon et al. (1992) suggested that the shedding of Agulhas Rings and Filaments causes a salinity anomaly in the South Atlantic thermocline that is of significance for the mode and vigor of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) formation in the high latitudes of the North Atlantic. Hence this Indian-Atlantic connection plays a significant role in global climate. In this talk I will first present surface and deep paleorecords generated from two sediment cores located in the gateway between the Indian and Atlantic Ocean that allow inferences about changes in the “Warm Water Route” through the last 345 ka. The study of these records has stimulated further questions about the Global Ocean Circulation and the importance of the different compensation routes of NADW export and I will subsequently also guide you through the exciting field of investigation of the “Cold Water Route”.

Sprite video

2011-12-09T09:23:00.001-05:00

Sprite captured on video

from Physorg.com

AMS Impacts session

2011-12-02T15:52:00.001-05:00

I'll be moderating this Impacts session at the AMS conference in January. Visit the conference website for the entire program.

Curiosity - the Mars Science Laboratory

2011-11-10T11:38:00.001-05:00

Source Space.com: All about our solar system, outer space and exploration via Space.com

Postdoc: Evolution of Cognition

2011-11-09T07:05:00.000-05:00

Postdoc - Evolution of Cognition
From the Evolution Directory (EvolDir) via Twitter.

Post-doctoral position: Evolution of cognition

University of St Andrews, Schools of Biology & Psychology

Research Fellow - Reference: JC1087

You will join a 3-year BBSRC-funded project exploring the role that cognition plays in nest building by birds, including which parts of the brain control nest building. This will be done using a multi-stranded approach incorporating both field and laboratory experiments and two 'model' systems: weaver birds and zebra finches. This project offers the exciting opportunity to address several questions. For instance, why does 'complex' cognition evolve? Can 'complex' cognition be quantified? Why does tool manufacture and use evolve?

You will be a highly motivated individual with an interest in brain and behaviour in non-human animals. You will have a PhD in biology, psychology or neuroscience and relevant experience.

Salary: £29,972 - £30,870 per annum

Potential applicants are encouraged to contact Dr Sue Healy (susan.healy[at]st-andrews.ac.uk) for further information.

The post is available for 36 months starting January 2012.

Closing Date: 2 December 2011
Interview Date: 9 December 2011

We encourage applicants to apply online at www.vacancies.st-andrews.ac.uk/welcome.aspx, however if you are unable to do this, please call +44 (0)1334 462571 for an application pack.

************************************
Dr David M Shuker
NERC Advanced Research Fellow
School of Biology
University of St Andrews
Harold Mitchell Building
St Andrews
Fife KY16 9TH
UK
Email: david.shuker[at]st-andrews.ac.uk

LAB WEBSITE: http://biology.st-andrews.ac.uk/shuker

Next week's RoadMap Conference

2011-11-03T16:09:00.000-05:00

GigaOM founder Om Malik on the upcoming RoadMap conference

Commodity producers brace for La Niña

2011-11-02T13:10:00.001-05:00

FT article today on La Nina and commodities

next update to the FAO food price index this Thursday (03 Nov)

Thailand floods video

2011-11-02T00:10:00.000-05:00

Video from the guardian shows residents of Northern Bangkok moving to higher ground.

The Rare Biosphere

2011-11-01T21:58:00.000-05:00

Go here and download the report.

Environmental Metagenomics talk at Rutgers

2011-10-24T07:53:00.003-05:00

SPEAKER: TIMOTHY M. VOGEL, Ph.D.
Professor, Environmental Microbial Genomics
Department of Electrical Engineering
Ecole Centrale de Lyon, Université de Lyon
Lyon, France

TITLE OF TALK: “ENVIRONMENTAL METAGENOMICS”

DATE/TIME/LOCATION:
MONDAY, OCTOBER 24, 2011 – 2:15PM – ROOM 223
Environmental & Natural Resource Sciences Bldg.
14 College Farm Road, New Brunswick, NJ

HOST : Dr. Lily Young, 732-932-8165 X312, lyoung@aesop.rutgers.edu
Please contact Dr. Young if you would like to meet with Prof. Vogel

ABSTRACT:
Recent advances in high throughput sequencing have led to the accumulation of metagenomic sequences from a wide range of ecosystems. These metagenomic sequences can now be accessed and exploited by non specialists using different available bioinformatics tools. Recent research into the possible genomic resources from a soil metagenome reinforces the optimism of searching for and finding potential enzymes of interest. The first step includes in silico screening of gene families in order to identify possible targets of interest. The second step includes screening clone libraries for these same (or similar) genes. Some initial work has demonstrated the extensive diversity of different ecosystems, with soil being the most diverse. In addition to biodiversity, different ecosystems might be more appropriate for different families of genes and different functions. Metagenomic approaches to engineered biological systems can also provide insight into the relationship between function and microbial community.

Rutgers EvoBio discussion: the evolution of cooking

2011-10-18T11:28:00.000-05:00

In my mailbox today, for Rutgers students with some free time in the NB area: Rutgers Journal Club in Evolution - Evolution of Cooking discussion.

=====================================================
*Journal Club in Evolution *(aka Advanced Evolution 16:215:550)
*continues Friday October 21th in room 262 in Foran Hall at 10:55-12:15.
*All are welcome to attend any of our weekly Friday meetings, at the
same time and in the same room for this semester.

This journal club is open to all students and faculty interested in
organismal evolution at any level (individual to phyla, genes to
morphology) and is arranged by Lena Struwe and Siobain Duffy. To get all
journal club announcements and other evolution-related information
campus-wide, sign up for the Mailing list in Evolution at
Rutgers:https://email.rutgers.edu/mailman/listinfo/evolution_ru

I (Lena Struwe) will lead a discussion on the *evolution of cooking, and
how it might have affected both human morphology and social behavior.*
The last chapter in the book Catching Fire by Richard Wrangham discusses
how cooking relates to decreased aggressive behaviors and more
cooperation within honomid populations, for example. Interesting
subject, and maybe something we all can relate to since we all need to
eat. I'll bring some edibles too.

We will discuss two chapters in Richard Wrangham's book "Catching Fire:
How Cooking Made us human" (Amazon link:
http://www.amazon.com/Catching-Fire-Cooking-Made-Human/dp/0465013627 ),
the introduction and the last chapter, the Cook's journey. The chapters
can be downloaded here (sorry, simple pdfs, nothing fancy):

http://PostIt.rutgers.edu/uploads/Wrangham%5FCatchingFire%5Fintro.pdf
(this chapter has been discussed before in journal club, and are given
as an intro for those that missed that discussion)

http://PostIt.rutgers.edu/uploads/Wrangham%5FCatchingFire%5F%20CooksJourney.pdf

There is a good introduction to Richard Wrangham's rather controversial
ideas here: Scientific American, Cooking Up Bigger Brains
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=cooking-up-bigger-brains&print=true
<http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/notrocketscience/2011/04/20/divided-by-language-united-by-gut-bacteria-%E2%80%93-people-have-three-common-gut-types/>

After Journal Club some of us usually go out for Evo Lunch. If you
can't be there for journal club but want to join in around 12.30 in for
some cooked food and evolutionary within-species company, send me an
e-mail.

See many of you on Friday!
Lena

--
Dr. Lena Struwe | Associate Professor& Director, Chrysler Herbarium | Rutgers University | Dept of Ecology, Evolution, and Natural Resources | Dept of Plant Biology and Pathology

===============================================================

Furry Happy Monsters

2011-10-11T21:50:00.000-05:00

Too funny.

Morning Thoughts

2011-10-05T08:12:00.000-05:00

MWObs

2011-10-03T11:52:00.000-05:00

from the Mount Washington Observatory

JulOLR

2011-09-29T17:14:00.003-05:00

While the total precipitation associated with the 2011 Indian Monsoon has been in the normal range for most states as classified by the Indian Met Dept, with a range between +19% and -19%, the distribution warrants a closer look. The map below from NASA's MERRA reanalysis archive highlights the Outgoing Longwave Radiation for July (a key month for crops), indiciative of precipitation, and we can see here that while the northwest was healthy, some states in the southern subcontinent were moisture deficient.

(source: NASA, MERRA)

The dipole present here is not uncommon, particularly in years where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies for the Indian Ocean/Bay of Bengal are absent.