Who Do I Start?

2014 season update

2014-09-05T13:40:00.003-04:00

Thanks for checking out the site.

I'll be posting more here or migrating to a new site.

In the meantime, if you have any fantasy football questions, post them in the comments or hit me up on twitter (@green_rick)

Here are some options for Ellington owners

2014-09-05T13:16:00.000-04:00

Everyone, it seems, was pretty high on Cardinals running back Andre Ellington going into this season.

In five leagues, I think I had him in three.

Today, there's a report circulating that Ellington could miss significant time with a foot injury.

Yikes.

We're still waiting for news to filter out, but as it stands now, I made a move in two leagues.

The person I picked up was Jon Dwyer.

Is he great? No. Could he be serviceable? Yep.

He was pegged as the No. 2 back and the goal-line guy going into the season opener before Ellington's news broke.

So there's some value there.

In one league, however, I'm waiting before I make a move.

That league doesn't have a deep bench, so I'm waiting. I'm not ready to cut, say, Mark Ingram or Jeremy Hill for him.

There's also a chance that Arizona could sign a running back.

So, I'd proceed with caution on Dwyer; deep league or deep roster, then he's worth a proactive add right now.

UPDATE: There are other reports that say Ellington might just need rest.

What does that mean? Well, he could play and then again, he might not be ready.

Keep in mind he has a Monday night game and if you have him, you need to keep your options open.

As a reminder, C.J. Spiller had a foot issue last year, and it wasn't supposed to be a lingering problem. Trouble was, Spiller seemed bothered by it all year.

It looks like if you own Ellington, you should at least have a viable bench guy.

Should teams eliminated from fantasy football playoffs be able to make waiver moves?

2013-12-18T11:48:00.001-05:00

I went to check my league's waiver wire today to see if my opponent in the championship game made any moves.

What did I see?

Five transactions. None made by my opponent or the two who lost in the semifinals.

Three owners who lost in the quarterfinals made transactions totaling those five moves.

The top four places cash out, so I'm wondering why they made moves.

Do you find this fair? It's not a keeper league either.

Who won AND who lost with Jamaal Charles?

2013-12-16T13:27:00.001-05:00

OK. Start it up.

Who lost to Jamaal Charles this week?

Post 'em here.

The tougher question: Who had Charles and his five TDs -- and lost?

For the record: I missed going against Charles in three matchups.

Broncos burn fantasy football players in the playoffs

2013-12-13T15:22:00.002-05:00

If you own any of the marquee Denver Broncos players, I'm sure you were looking forward to Thursday's game in what is the fantasy football semifinals in most cases.

Boy, did those owners get burned.

Peyton Manning: 289 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT.
Knowshon Moreno: 8 carries, 19 yards.
Montee Ball: 3 carries for minus-1 yards. Yeah, I had a better day that Ball.
Julius Thomas: 49 yards receiving.
Demaryius Thomas: 45 yards receiving.
Eric Decker: 42 yards receiving.

You were probably happy if you started Andre Caldwell (59 yards, 2 TDs).

But then again, who started him?

What you need to do now, if you had one or more of these Broncos, is play the high-upside guy.

Good luck.

I'm done with these fantasy football players this season

2013-12-12T15:44:00.000-05:00

Here's who I'm done with in fantasy football:

Lamar Miller.
Ray Rice.
Jay Cutler.
Kendall Wright.
TY Hilton.
Mike Wallace.
Colin Kaepernick.
Carson Palmer.
Frank Gore.
Darren Sproles.
Ryan Mathews.

This certainly isn't a complete list, just players that have burned me one too many times in league.

Who would you add?

Bears to bench McCown for Cutler

2013-12-12T15:38:00.002-05:00

Adjust your rosters: Jay Cutler will start over Josh McCown this Sunday.

The Bears will sit McCown, who's torn things up the past three weeks, averaging over 300 yards passing each game.

I would find it hard to trust Cutler as a starter Sunday. He easily could get injured and miss the rest of the season.

If you have room on your playoff roster, I'd hold on to McCown.

Was Richardson the problem in Cleveland?

2013-09-30T19:40:00.001-04:00

Now that the Cleveland Browns have two wins under their belt, people are changing their tune about the blockbuster deal that sent Trent Richardson to the Indianapolis Colts for a No. 1 pick.

People panned the move from the Browns' side, saying giving up a franchise back this early in his career wasn't a good move.

Today, the Browns are the toast of the AFC North.

Maybe getting rid of Richardson wasn't what propelled the modest two-game winning streak.

Maybe getting a Brian Hoyer at quarterback instead of Brandon Weeden helped.

Maybe getting their No. 1 receiver, Josh Gordon, back helped.

Maybe it's just two wins and the bottom will fall out.

I don't think Richardson is or was the problem. A lot of other factors played into the mini-run by the Browns.

It wasn't all Richardson's fault. I'm not ready to bury him as an elite running back, either.

Don't make same mistake as Lions with Stafford

2013-07-10T15:08:00.002-04:00

Don't go all in on Matt Stafford this season like the Detroit Lions did.

Stafford is a solid fantasy QB, but the investment the Lions made ($41.5 million guarantee) is silly.

He's not one of the best QBs in real life. He's not one of the best in fantasy.

Here's my top 10 for 2013:

Aaron Rodgers
Drew Brees
Cam Newton
Peyton Manning
Andrew Luck
Matt Ryan
Tom Brady
Russell Wilson
Colin Kaepernick
Robert Griffin III
Tony Romo

That's 11 that I would draft ahead of Stafford, who starts the summer at No. 12.

Lamar Miller remains RB I want to see

2013-07-09T14:02:00.002-04:00

It won't be long until training camps start, but that doesn't mean I'm not morphing into fantasy football mode.

Here are a couple players I'm interested in seeing this summer before draft day:

Lamar Miller: I've been high on this guy since last year. He appears ready to claim the starting role for the Dolphins. He could finish as a top 20 RB. He's got some upside.

Giovani Benard: The hype for the rookie RB already has started. The Bengals are gushing over this guy. I'm guessing you'll need to draft him early to get him.

Tavon Austin: The rookie WR could be the main cog for the Rams. I don't like drafting rookie WRs until late, so I might not get him in any drafts.

Vincent Brown: The Chargers WR was injured last year, so he could be a steal late in drafts. We'll have to see how the coaching staff plans to use him.

Who else is on your radar?

Get Lamar Miller on your radar

2013-01-29T17:50:00.000-05:00

It's never too early to plan for next year in fantasy football.

Yesterday was a prime example of that when news hit that Reggie Bush's time in Miami could be over.

If that's the case, Lamar Miller could be a big-time beneficiary of that move.

Miller owners, and future owners, need to get through free agency and the draft, but as things stand now, Miller looks like the next back in Miami.

I know Daniel Thomas is still there, but I'm not enamored by him and it appears the Dolphins are not either.

If you can get Miller on the cheap, now's the time to do it.

Looking at alternatives for RG3

2012-12-16T02:06:00.001-05:00

Man, the timing for the Robert Griffin III news couldn't have come at worse time.

Well, I guess it could, since there's still time to make alternate plans.

But still, RG3 carried teams this year.

Now, owners are left scrambling for a starter at quarterback.

Hopefully, you backed up RG3 with someone you can plug in this week.

If not, you're probably looking at some players you never thought would be starting in the playoffs.

Here's how I would rank some left out there:

Brandon Weeden: Could hook up with Josh Gordon for a long TD.
Carson Palmer: Garbage time works for him.
Chad Henne: Faces former team. Has both Cecil Shorts and Justin Blackmon.
Sam Bradford: Chris Givens is emerging, plus Danny Amendola should play.
Jake Locker: Has some weapons on offense.
Kirk Cousins: Not sure what to expect from him.
Ryan Tannehill: He's struggled, but he faces the Jags.
Christian Ponder: Do you get points for handing off to Adrian Peterson?
Mark Sanchez: Don't trust him, but he's better than the next two.
Brady Quinn: Nah.
Ryan Lindley: Maybe you're better off taking a zero?!

Good luck.

Can't decide on a lineup question? Here's what I do

2012-12-16T01:52:00.000-05:00

It's the playoffs and you need a win. I get it.

But what if you still have a lingering lineup choice?

Here's what I look at:

First, check the over/under for the game involving the players in question. I go with the one with the highest over/under.

Second, I ask myself, "Who could I stand losing with?"

Silly, I know. But let's say I'm deciding between Josh Freeman and Matt Ryan at QB this week.

I'd rather make the wrong choice with Ryan than try to be a genius and start Freeman and lose because of it.

Good luck this week.

Could Dez be a decoy?

2012-12-16T01:41:00.000-05:00

Yep, Dez Bryant is supposed to line up at wide receiver for the Dallas Cowboys Sunday against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

A healthy Dez would be a juicy matchup against a depleted Steelers' secondary.

Unfortunately, Bryant is risking further injury by playing with a broken finger.

Bryant said he wouldn't play if the playoffs weren't on the line, so hats off to him for putting it on the line.

I'm just wondering one thing: What if Dez is a decoy against the Steelers? I haven't heard that angle.

His legs are healthy. He can run all over the field while Miles Austin and Jason Witten get all the love from Tony Romo.

I'd sit Bryant this week. The downside is too great.

Who do you trust? Fantasy football playoff edition

2012-12-04T22:15:00.001-05:00

I still can't put my finger on this fantasy football season. I guess that means it's been one crazy ride.

Hopefully, you've made your way through the landmines and injuries of the season and found the playoffs.

Looking back, I really lucked out this season in getting Robert Griffin III in all three of my leagues. It wasn't by design, it's just how it happened. And, he was drafted as my backup in all three leagues as well.

With RG3 leading the way, it should be no surprise that I made the playoffs in all three leagues.

Here's where I stand:

14-team straight redraft: Third place overall, second overall in scoring. I had Michael Vick as my starting QB but switched to RG3 after two weeks and didn't look back. I cut Vick last week and picked up Brandon Weeden as my backup. I've been putting up the points despite having Darren McFadden and DeMarco Murray on my bench with injuries for the second half of the season. Eric Decker has worn out his welcome; I just can't trust the guy at this point. I've had Jason Witten since the start of the season, and he currently ranks third at TE in our PPR format.

12-team, one keeper: Second place overall, first overall in scoring. I secured a bye Monday when the person I was battling with lost by three points. It helped that he had Santana Moss. Of course, the week before, I lost by 1.5 points with James Jones getting me zero targets. It's a PPR, so that really hurt. As for my roster, I entered the season with Calvin Johnson as my keeper. I then drafted A.J. Green and Rob Gronkowski with my first two picks. Not bad -- until Gronk got hurt. I picked up Philip Rivers and RG3 back-to-back during the draft, and I started Rivers in Week 1. After that, it's been RG3, baby.

8-team, five keepers: Second place overall, first in scoring. I was heavy on running backs, so I took Tony Romo with my first pick (drafted sixth, so Trent Richardson and Doug Martin were gone). I snagged RG3 soon after. I traded for Matthew Stafford midseason, so I've been going with him and RG3 as my two starters at QB. Otherwise it's been a heavy dose of Arian Foster and LeSean McCoy (Bryce Brown, too).

As I set my roster in one league and scan waivers in the other two since I have byes, I have my eyes on T.Y. Hilton, Danario Alexander, Knowshon Moreno, Vick Ballard and Jonathan Dwyer.

I'm forgetting about the likes of Decker, Denarius Moore, Jermichael Finley, Steve Smith, Jacquizz Rodgers (at least at home, check out his splits) and Shonn Greene.

Good luck this week.

Got a question? Follow me on Twitter @ green_rick.

Vick Ballard? Thursday night was defining moment

2012-11-09T15:06:00.000-05:00

I bought into the Vick Ballard hype Thursday.

I used a waiver claim, picked him up and inserted him into my lineup for Thursday night's game against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Right up until 8:15 p.m.

A few minutes earlier I saw the Indianapolis Colts had running back Donald Brown was active.

Uh-oh.

I couldn't risk it. I benched Ballard at the last minute because of the uncertainty of his role for the game.

We'll see if it was a good move, but judging from Ballard's game and the Colts' usage of him, I'm done with Ballard.

He looks like he could be the guy, if the Colts would just let him. He's more of a back that needs volume, plus it doesn't help if Andrew Luck is getting the goal-line carries.

So two things to remember from Thursday's game: check the inactives and watch for a player's role. It could be big.

And I guess there's a third, too. I just can't trust Ballard.

Eight weeks in, it's been a crazy season

2012-10-30T08:48:00.001-04:00

It's been a crazy fantasy football season.

So far, we've learned that the Madden curse continues (yes, I'm a Calvin Johnson owner in one league), Alfred Morris is a legit running back, rookie QBs aren't so bad (if you're Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III or Brandon Weeden) and everything that we've learned can turn upside down.

Is this a great sport or what?

I drafted RG3 in three of my four leagues as a backup, but I've been rolling with him since Week 1. I guess that's not too hard to do with Philip Rivers and Michael Vick as your other two quarterbacks.

It's safe to say that Rivers is pretty much done with me. I'm waiting for an impatient owner to cut someone like Josh Freeman to help out during the bye-week blues. I might even roll with Weeden as my backup as soon as this week. I've just lost all patience with the Chargers and Norv Turner. I guess Ryan Mathews is OK at RB, but nothing else there excites me.

I guess I shouldn't base everything on last week, as the Chargers should get a free pass for playing in those weather conditions in Cleveland. But I'm done with Rivers.

As for Vick, I'll hold him, but I don't see myself starting him. This week's matchup against the Saints looks promising, but I'll not go that route.

As we get closer to crunch time, and hopefully the playoffs, I'll post more.

I'm back from dormancy, but CJ isn't

2012-09-17T15:50:00.004-04:00

Is there anyone more disappointing so far this season than Chris Johnson?

There are contenders for the throne, but C.J. has let many, many owners down.

Thankfully, I haven't been burned by him.

Let's review what the first-round pick has done in two games:

Sept. 9 vs. the Patriots: 11 carries, 4 yards; 6 receptions, 47 yards
Sept. 16 vs. the Chargers: 8 carries, 17 yards, 2 receptions, 11 yards

Ugh.

And to think, he went No. 4 overall in some drafts.

If you own C.J., you need to cut bait.

The offense looks bad. Jake Locker looks bad.

If I could get Doug Martin, Frank Gore, Law Firm or DeAngelo Williams, I'd do it.

Heck, I'd consider Kevin Smith at this point.

Yeah, you could hold onto C.J. and wait for a big game. But when will that happen with games coming up against the Lions, Texans, Vikings and Steelers?

I'm not excited about Michael Vick

2012-08-28T13:32:00.000-04:00

Two injuries.

That's two too many for my liking.

Yes, Philadelphia Eagles QB Michael Vick isn't seriously injured, but it's a not-so-subtle reminder that Vick, while explosive, is a high-risk, high-reward player.

That's why I spent a second-round pick on Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan in my 10-team, five-keeper league. My protection list was submitted before Vick's rib injury was disclosed, so I might have even protected New England Patriots receiver Brandon Lloyd over Vick.

Seven quarterbacks were protected, and I then used a high pick to back up Vick.

Well, I might start Ryan over Vick.

I'm that nervous about him.

I'd rank quarterbacks like this:

Aaron Rodgers
Tom Brady
Cam Newton
Drew Brees
Matt Stafford
Matt Ryan
Eli Manning
Peyton Manning
Mike Vick

Ryan Mathews Support Group meets here

2012-08-11T02:51:00.001-04:00

There's a lot of upset Ryan Mathews owners out there.

I know. I am one.

Welcome to the club.

In order to help everyone get over their feelings of being burned by the San Diego Chargers running back, I'm asking anyone who feels upset to post away in the comments below.

Seeing what other Mathews owners are going through can help you get over your anxiety.

Right now, I'm keeping Mathews in my 10-team league. We keep five, so I have a larger margin for error than those that keep fewer or those who spent an early pick on him already.

I've had Mathews for two seasons, so I'm well aware of the frustrations of owning him.

Here's why I'm not giving up on him yet:

He might only miss one game.
The injury is not as bad as the Chargers originally thought.
San Diego has not signed any running backs yet.

For now, I'm staying the course. I have more than a week to change my mind, and I'll let you know if I do.

Ryan Mathews: injured, out and falling on draft boards

2012-08-10T02:33:00.001-04:00

I couldn't believe it Thursday night.

I opened up my Twitter feed and it was going crazy. Tweet after tweet kept popping up. Finally, I saw it: Ryan Mathews injured.

Ouch.

On the first carry, no less.

Instead of proving he's worthy of a first-round pick and able to be the main running back for the San Diego Chargers, Mathews confirms his fragile reputation by breaking his clavicle.

Initial diagnosis: out four to six weeks.

How does that change things with Mathews?

If you draft him in the third round, you're probably reaching. He might be a safer pick toward the end of the fourth round, but you're probably better waiting until the fifth.

Plus, you need to handcuff him. The problem there, however, no one has emerged as the handcuff. It could be Ronnie Brown, but Curtis Brinkley could be the guy, too.

In my dynasty league, Mathews was a player I was planning on keeping. We keep five in a 10-team league, and now I feel stuck.

I have 10 days to decide, so after this initial buzzkill, I'll be able to look at it more objectively.

However, if I was drafting Saturday, I would be looking at other options.

Keep in mind, if Mathews returns in four weeks, we're looking at the start of the season. It might not be as bad as we're dreading right now.

However, this doesn't bode well for a season where he was supposed to emerge as a feature back.

Trent Richardson news presents buying opportunity

2012-08-09T02:32:00.000-04:00

The Cleveland Browns have no luck.

But, you could turn that bad luck into some fantasy football luck.

With the news that No. 1 pick Trent Richardson could have surgery today on his knee, fantasy football owners have to be taking that into consideration before they draft.

Before the news, Richardson likely was a first-round pick. Now? Who knows?

The procedure, if it takes place, would sideline Richardson for two or three weeks. The team seems to think he'll be ready for the season opener.

If you draft this weekend, I wouldn't lower him based on this news alone.

Yes, it's a little disheartening to hear. But the Browns were depending on Richardson this year.

I would still take him at the end of the first round.

The information I've seen so far hasn't convinced me to knock him down on my board or avoid him.

Pre-draft trading strategy: Getting anything for a non-keeper a good idea?

2012-08-06T15:54:00.000-04:00

In my dynasty league, owners usually try to sell off the players they won't keep at a reduced rate.

Usually there's a big rush of emails before the keepers are due hoping someone will take them up on an offer.

I've had mixed feelings about doing this, at least in a sell-off mode.

First, if you're an owner without a strong number of keepers, this is one way to get a decent player at a lower cost.

For example, Franchise Owner A might try to sell Player A for an eighth-round draft pick. If Player A is an upgrade, this would be a good idea.

I'm looking at it from a different angle and want to get your opinion.

If I'm an owner, why would I want to help out another owner improve his team at a discounted rate?

Let me throw a player out there to help make a little more sense.

I'm not keeping Brandon Lloyd. My dynasty league keepers (five) are shaping up as Ryan Mathews, DeMarco Murray, Jimmy Graham, Matt Forte and Mike Vick.

Lloyd is going somewhere in the 50s in drafts, so he could be going in the fifth round. If I trade Lloyd for an eighth-round pick, the other owner is making out. I won't be drafting a player in the eighth round of comparable talent or upside. And remember, since we keep five, this would be like a 13th-round pick.

But, some will say, you are at least getting something for Lloyd, who you weren't going to keep.

Agreed.

But now I can't draft Lloyd again. Plus, I made the other team stronger.

Do you see any other points for or against this? I'd love to hear them.

I'm backing off Big Ben

2012-08-02T13:03:00.001-04:00

There seems to be some thought that if you pass on the first tier of quarterbacks in your fantasy football league, that you still can get some quality.

I agree with that thought.

Some might have thought the Pittsburgh Steelers' Ben Roethlisberger could have been a good value, especially with Rashard Mendenhall on the mend.

I could see it, perhaps. But after seeing news of Roethlisberger's little torn rotator cuff, I have to drop him down on my board.

Roethlisberger's injury history, and word of this one from Novemeber, scares me.

I'll draft Big Ben only as a backup.

Ryan Mathews injury watch begins again?

2012-08-01T13:02:00.004-04:00

Ryan Mathews' stock was rising going into training camp.

Earlier this week, however, I had flashbacks to his first two seasons.

Mathews was slightly injured in a car accident.

Mathews called the accident a "freak thing."

This likely won't bother him this camp, but it was a reminder that Mathews and injuries seemed to go hand-in-hand.

Things were looking good for him with Mike Tolbert leaving. And Mathews is going in the first round of most drafts.

As a Mathews owner in a dynasty league, I'm nervous about him.

If I'm drafting in a regular league, it might be tempting to take Trent Richardson or Maurice Jones-Drew before Mathews, although both of those players have their risks as well.