Around The Res

BC Defeats Ga. Tech 74-72

2013-03-09T15:32:00.000-05:00

Behind by 10 points with roughly ten minutes to play, Boston College pulled away for a 74-72 victory against Ga. Tech. Playing senior night without any fourth year seniors, the Eagles struggled throughout on the defensive end but efficiently spread the ball around on offense. Four players reached double digits (Anderson with 13, Hanlan with 14, Rahon with 15, and Odio with 11) and Van Nest and Heckmann were close behind with nine and seven points respectively. BC shot an impressive 55% from the floor, including an equally impressive 43% from beyond the arc.

The win over Georgia Tech was BC's 15th of the year, seventh in the ACC. For those keeping track of the Baby Eagles' progress, this gives the team a six win improvement season-over-season from last year, and a three win improvement in ACC play. Boston College will have another opportunity for a victory this coming week when it rematches against Ga. Tech in the ACC tournament.

While there were questions about the progress of this team earlier in the year, it's becoming more clear that Donahue is building a winning program and culture. This team is playing noticeably better basketball as the season draws to a close.

Eddie Odio has gone from a ninth player to a legitimate ACC player who could probably crack the rotation on almost any team in the league. Heckmann finally seems to be understanding the system. Hanlan and Rahon are probably one of the best freshman guard duos in the country. Anderson has been relatively quiet on the offensive end lately, perhaps because he's getting less looks, but he's making less and less immature mistakes and is becoming a leader on the team. This is the most promising BC basketball has looked in the past four or five years.

The team will look for back-to-back wins against Georgia Tech next week. A win against Georgia Tech followed by a win against Miami would send the Baby Eagles to a post-season tournament of some sort.

BC Defeats Wake 66-63 to Get 3rd ACC Win

2013-02-14T15:52:00.000-05:00

I predicted a let-down game after the close loss to Duke, but didn't think the team would play as badly as it did last night. Last night was a defensive nightmare, with WF shooting better than 50% from the field. If it wasn't for some key mistakes down the stretch, Wake would have won this game comfortably. Still, given that BC has had its share of terrible luck this year, you could say we deserved to catch a break in this game.

If there are any positives to be taken from last night's game, it certainly is on the offensive end. Not only did BC have a decent night shooting from the field (.438), we were shooting a .462 clip from beyond the arc and hit nearly 90% of our free throws. The clutch 3's and free throws really saved the team down the stretch, but the diversity on offense was outstanding. Five players had nine or more points, and Eddie Odio contributed another seven. We really did a nice job of making Wake guard all of the guys on the court throughout the game.

Clifford made another cameo appearance, showing up for 12 minutes, scoring two points, and registering two boards and three blocks. Again, his numbers are poor but this team is simply way better defensively with a big man in the paint. I thought that Anderson had a poor game tonight, going just 5-13 from the field. His lower field goal percentage is often a function of him consistently drawing the other team's "lock-down" defender night after night, but he has the capability to back defenders down in the paint and get high percentage shots. He settles for longer mid-range jumpers far too often, perhaps out of frustration. It's hard to get down on Anderson because he's the guy we always go to when someone needs to make a tough bucket, but I would like to see him pass off on the longer two-point shots more often.

Heckmann quietly led the team in scoring, racking up 14 points. He was really valuable to the team when Hanlan left temporarily with a bloody eye. He is a liability defensively because of how many fouls he draws, and sometimes he is a little slow to recognize where he is supposed to be on offense but his ability to create his own shot is invaluable when this team is in a rut. I do think he should be getting 20+ minutes a game, although playing time is going to be harder to come by next year with one graduation (Van Nest at 4 minutes last night) and two players coming in. It will be interesting to see if Donahue decides to red shirt Owens.

I really felt like we needed this win to avoid backsliding as a program. After four ACC wins last year, anything less than that would be a disappointment. We should look to win another ACC road game against FSU on Saturday. FSU has had a less-than-stellar year so far, losing 56-36(!) to UVA, 71-47 to Miami, and 71-46 to Wake. If we can hang tight defensively we would seem to stand a decent chance of knocking the Seminoles off and achieving that 4th win.

BC Continues Attendance Woes

2013-02-06T13:51:00.000-05:00

It's probably no surprise that BC is struggling at the box office with a team that has been rebuilding for two years and hasn't been to the NCAA tournament since any of the current undergraduates first stepped foot on campus. In the 2012 fiscal year, BC averaged just 4,699 fans per game, which didn't even put the university in the top 100 of college basketball attendance. Nevada, coming in at number 100, averaged 5,237 fans per game, putting the Wolf Pack over 10% above BC's numbers. For those wondering, the Wolf Pack have been to the tournament six times, last in 2007.

BC's attendance ranks last this year in the ACC. Although we have improved to 5,274 fans per game so far this season, we still lag second-to-last place Miami by over 1,000 fans per game. Miami, which historically struggles to draw even mediocre basketball crowds, has averaged 6,356 this year, a figure no doubt bolstered by the team's #8 national ranking.

Although the team has been historically weak this year, boasting an RPI of just 143 (followed by Illinois State, Arkansas-Little Rock, Jacksonville State, Oakland, and Wright State), you would like to think that BC could put more fans in the seats than this. Against Clemson, for example, one entire student section (except for the band) was empty for the duration of the game. In 2007-08 students entered the lottery for half-season packages!

Nothing puts fans in the seats quite like winning, but other struggling teams, like Wake and Virginia Tech have overcome similar challenges. BC needs to find someone who can market the program even when it's struggling.

Recruiting Rankings Matter (A little)

2013-02-04T18:32:00.002-05:00

Just when you think that recruiting rankings don't matter.

BC Holds on Against Clemson

2013-02-04T14:03:00.000-05:00

BC got a huge home win against Clemson Saturday. BC desperately needed to get back in the ACC win column to give itself a chance to match or beat last year's four ACC wins. With games against Wake, Clemson, and Georgia Tech left on the schedule I do think this team stands a decent chance at matching its win total from last year.

I don't want to extrapolate too much from a single win but there were a few key points from Saturday that are worth mentioning. First. Eddie Odio continues to get better and better under Donahue's watch. He brings excellent effort defensively and is starting to make more plays that make you go "wow." He'll never be the fastest guy on the court and frankly doesn't look very athletic but he's very strong and can jump way higher than you would expect. The sheer number of blocks and put-back dunks he has suggests that he's way more athletic than people give him credit for. He's definitely not an ACC starter, but he's certainly a capable, if not better-than-average, player off the bench. I'm comfortable with him spelling Anderson and Clifford over the next two-plus years. I don't think it's a coincidence that Clemson was able to make its run while Odio was in foul trouble.

A lot has been made about how many "ACC players" Donahue has. The perception seems to be that most of these guys simply aren't up to the ACC level athletically. I really don't see a lot of evidence for this. We haven't seen a healthy Clifford all year so at worst I think he's a question mark at this point. I do believe he showed enough last year to make us believe that he can compete at the ACC level. Anderson and Hanlan are ACC players, even if Hanlan has a bad game every now and then. He's a freshman guard and is simply going to take his lumps in ACC play.

Rahon just put 26 points on Clemson, and yet some in the press are still saying that he isn't an ACC player. I know he's hit a bit of a dry spell recently but Joe Rahon is averaging 10.8 points per game right now. Matt Humphrey averaged 10.3 per game last year. Was Matt Humphrey not an ACC player? Of course he was. The media simply takes one look at Rahon and decides that he's too short, too slow, and not strong enough for ACC play, regardless of whether Rahon is putting up ACC numbers. Rahon and Hanlan are my favorite players on the team right now and I think Donahue has found some solid players in picking these guys up.

BC goes up against Miami tomorrow. We only lost by 1 last time we played the Hurricanes, but Miami must be jazzed to be ranked 8 in the country right now.

Time to Shut Down Clifford

2013-01-31T14:05:00.000-05:00

Dennis Clifford was supposed to play a big part in BC's success this year. He played very well during the team's summer trip to Spain, excelled in the off-season strength and conditioning program, and was starting to look like the dominant big man Donahue thought he could be when he recruited him. Damage to the tissue under Clifford's kneecap knocked him out for several out of conference games, and his ability to contribute minutes has been extremely limited since then. Against UNC, Clifford contributed just four minutes with one block and zero points. He showed noticeable weakness in the paint on offense and had difficulties guarding the perimeter on defense.

BC has said that Clifford's knee can only be healed with rest and physical therapy. Theoretically, the longer he continues to play these sporadic minutes, the further we push back his off season conditioning schedule. With little left to play for this season, I wonder whether it's worth sacrificing Clifford's ability to work out in the off season for a few minutes of shaky play down the stretch. I would rather see BC shut him down, get him healthy as soon as possible, and gear him up for next year.

This Team is Soft

2013-01-30T13:54:00.000-05:00

BC lost to UNC 82-70 last night, but this game was essentially a blow out and UNC was never in any danger of losing control. I'm beginning to have real questions about the direction of this program. As a preliminary matter, when this year's sophomore class came into BC, we were talking about how the ceiling could be the final four. That's gone. If we're lucky, this team makes the tournament, not next year, but the following year. Last night was abysmal and completely unacceptable three years into Donahue's tenure.

Let's start with effort. This team looked completely clueless and apathetic for large stretches of last night's game. I'm not the only one who noticed this. Donahue then proceeds to come out in his press conference and talk about the good effort and intensity of the team. I don't expect the coach to call the players out in the media at the collegiate level, but how can he honestly like the effort and intensity of the team in last night's performance? At best, he can say that he's been riding the starters for too many minutes and that guys are simply tired. I refuse to accept that there was good effort and intensity last night and the idea that Donahue might not realize this troubles me a lot.

Second, as I frequently said last night on twitter, this team is soft. We can either complain that the refs have it out for us every night or we can face the fact that this team has the reputation for embellishing fouls. While Jackson was probably fouled last night near the scorers table there is simply no way he was fouled hard enough that he should have been nearly flipped over the table. Anderson was practically flipped over in the paint with a backhanded nudge by a guy six inches shorter than him and the ref looked at him like "really?" Heckmann looks like he's been mortally wounded every time someone taps him and Clifford (who's admittedly injured) couldn't even back down a guy a foot shorter than him in the paint (I'm not even going to go into how stupid it is to play Clifford injured for four minutes a night).

The immediate problem is that when the refs think you're embellishing fouls, as apparently multiple teams of refs do, it's difficult for them to figure out when you've actually been fouled. This is indicative of other problems. How many times did UNC get an offensive board last night because no one bothered to box out? Out many times did UNC beat us to lose balls? I've never seen BC play this soft and it really bothers me. These guys simply aren't living up to the toughness displayed by guys like Marshall, Dudley, and Rice.

Third, we need to know what's going on with our strength and conditioning program. Jackson and Heckmann have maybe gained five pounds between the two of them since they've arrived on campus. Obviously Rahon and Hanlan haven't been in the program long enough to see any real progress. Daniels, before he left the program, didn't look like he gained any weight. Clifford, Odio, and Anderson all look bigger. How is Caudill still not in shape, nearly two years into the program? I can't think of a three star basketball recruit who has contributed less to this program in the seven years I've been here.

I'm not blaming any of the players here. The responsibility lies with the coach to fix this. Donahue's go-to excuse right now is that there are no older players in the program to show these guys how to play defense, put on weight, and play tough. First, I don't think it takes a big-brother to show you how to play tough and focus on defense, but I'm also not a coach. Second, Donahue is directly responsible for creating the culture of this program. He knew that BC basketball was in a tough spot culturally when he took this team over. That's what he was brought in to fix. If the guys aren't playing with a chip on their shoulder then he needs to figure out how to fix that.

There aren't going to be any easy answers to these problems, but that's why we pay Donahue so much money. A lot of other programs and coaches have similar problems and successful head coaches find a way to fix them. Do you think Coach K or Roy Williams walked into winning cultures? No. They simply bucked up and said "this is the way we will do things here. Play tough or take a seat on the bench."

I'm obviously extremely disappointed with last night and don't want to take too much from one loss, but this isn't the first time this team has laid an egg this year. Bryant. Harvard. Dayton. College of Charleston. UNC.

Are the Baby Eagles Showing Any Progress?

2013-01-28T14:15:00.000-05:00

It's no secret that the Eagles are off to a rough 1-5 start to ACC play. Four of the six games, all losses, were within five points. Such close games are usually 50-50 propositions, meaning that BC very well could be sitting at 3-3 if things had gone slightly differently. A 3-3 start would certainly have been progress over last year's four total wins in ACC play, but I wanted to compare the stats to see if the numbers support this type of progress.

Scoring: Last year, BC averaged a field goal percentage of .409 and this year average .431, a differential of .022, a small bump at best. This becomes even smaller when you consider two additional factors. First, BC is playing a faster offense this year, which should result in more layups and other high percentage shots. Second, BC has played less than half of its ACC games, meaning that the current field goal percentage disproportionately reflects a higher number of out of conference opponents than last year's percentage.

When it comes to 3 pointers, BC shot .339 last year, and is currently shooting just .337, a clear, albeit slight, regression. On the balance I think the numbers support slight overall regression in the shooting department. They certainly don't show progress.

Defense: Last year, opponents shot .436. This year, opponents are shooting .447. BC is playing a faster pace offense this year, which should result in more opponent possessions, and therefore proportionately more opponent points. The problem is that opponents are increasing not only their point totals but their total points per possession, reflected in part by the increased field goal percentage.

Again, we have slight regression.

Rebounding and Turnovers: We do see some progress when it comes to rebounding. BC was out-rebounded 1111-924 last year. This year BC is clearing the glass at a more even rate, coming in just ahead at 636-619, even without Clifford.

Similar results can be seen in the assist-to-turnover ratio. Last year this stat was under water for BC, coming in at 358:454. This year the team has turned the ship around, coming in at 238:223 so far.

Conclusion: I'm honestly not entirely sure what to make of these numbers. On the one hand I'm discouraged with the lack of progress, especially in regards to shooting. Donahue was supposed to be a good, if not great, shooting coach. How many guys have noticeably improved their shot under his watch though? Lonnie Jackson and maybe Anderson? I always thought that Donahue's defensive background was suspect, and even asked him about his defensive credentials when I first met him. These guys need to get tougher on the defensive end if they are going to win ACC games.

That being said, this team was never going to play in the post-season this year. If we're looking at this team compared to last year's team, not much has changed. We've lost our most experienced starter, Humphrey, and replaced him with a freshman. We replaced a freshman point guard with another freshman point guard. We've swapped a healthy Clifford for an unhealthy Clifford. Only Heckmann, Anderson, Odio, and Jackson are improvements over their 2011-2012 selves. I don't believe that adversity is an excuse, but it shouldn't be completely discounted either.

I'll keep rooting for this team, going to games, and hoping that Donahue works out. I like him both as a person and as a coach. I think he's a great fit for this university and that he was dealt a really difficult hand by Skinner. These types of questions will become more frequent as the losses pile up however.

Jackson's Resurgence

2013-01-16T13:36:00.001-05:00

After a shaky start to the year, Lonnie Jackson has been on fire the past two games, racking up 22 and 23 points on the road against Virginia Tech and Wake Forrest respectively. After watching Jackson excel on the Spanish road trip, Donahue has been consistently giving the sophomore starter's minutes, lauding his overall game. A lot of people, including myself, questioned whether Jackson was a long-term answer for this team given his spotty shooting. In several games this year he seemed to struggle with his shot, frequently seemed to be pressing, and showed no ability to put the ball on the floor. Over the past two games Jackson has returned to the ACC player we thought he could be for parts of last year.

I think the jury is still out on whether Jackson will be a starter for this team for the next two-plus years. If he can consistently give this team between 10 and 15 points, we could do a lot worse for our 5th starter. BC is not the type of school which usually has five solid starters. Even in our 2007 tournament run, where we nearly made the Sweet 16, our 5th starter was a freshman Tyler Roche, who averaged just 1.7 points per game. We don't need a world beater as our 5th starter. We simply need someone who can hit open shots and prevent double teams against Anderson. Anything over and beyond that is a bonus.

Jackson's impressive range and accuracy from beyond the arc make double teams challenging for opposing defenses. Opposing teams have to either guard Jackson wherever he is on the court or risk him shooting a three at a .385 clip. While Jackson could work on quickening his release, he could make a killing as a spot-up shooter considering how Anderson, Clifford, Hanlan, and Rahon are progressing.

The one thing about Jackson that typically goes unnoticed is his leadership. He frequently directs traffic on the floor and seems to be the go-to leader when Clifford is on the bench, which has been more frequently lately.

Again, I don't want to make too much of two ACC road games, but BC fans are beginning to see why Donahue has so much faith in Jackson, and his persistence in giving Jackson playing time is starting to pay off.

Where does BC stand in the ACC?

2012-12-26T17:08:00.000-05:00

BC basketball has been shaky at best this season, and it would be natural to assume that this team will struggle in ACC play. Given that the ACC as a whole has struggled so far this year, I am cautiously optimistic that BC will win more than the four ACC games it managed last year. Here's a break-down of the RPI rankings as of Christmas:

Duke (1)
N.C. State (5)
Miami (19)
Maryland (45)
UNC (52)
Georgia Tech (99)
Boston College (125)
FSU (129)
Virginia Tech (140)
Virginia (156)
Clemson (193)
Wake Forrest (201)

If the early RPI rankings are any indicator of future success in conference play, which they might not be, BC should be a middle-of-the-pack team this year. Even if BC was only able to split games with the programs ranked below it, that would give us five ACC wins. I also think we'll be able to find a way to squeak out two wins from programs ranked ahead of us, which would give us seven conference wins in total. If Donahue is able to take care of business against Holy Cross and Dartmouth, that would give BC eight out of conference wins, putting the yearly total at 15, assuming of course that BC fails to win a game in the conference tournament.

15 is obviously a very theoretical number right now considering that conference games haven't even started, but it would certainly be a marked improvement over last year's nine wins. 15-17 isn't the type of season BC fans are used to on the hardwood, but it would certainly put the program in prime position for post-season play of some sort next year.

BC Defeats Providence, Team Back on Track

2012-12-24T10:05:00.000-05:00

The men's basketball team had a very impressive win Saturday against Providence. Providence, which admittedly had a very soft schedule coming into the game, stood at 8-2 and looks to be a decent, but not upper tier, Big East team this season. BC played extremely well throughout the game, but really played its best basketball in the final minutes of the second half.

The biggest story of the day was Ryan Anderson, who contributed an efficient 24 points and 7 rebounds in just 30 minutes. Anderson continues to be the center of this team, and increasingly looks like one of the best players in the ACC. If he stays healthy he will be one of the all-time greats at BC. It's too bad that he never got the chance to play along side Reggie Jackson.

The front court also had its best game of the season. Rahon and Hanlan logged all 40 minutes, and the guards put up an impressive 12 assists, compared to just 8 turnovers. BC finally seems to be turning the corner on its assist-to-turnover ratio, which has not been looking good for the past year and a half. Hanlan only shot 4-14, but still was able to contribute 17 points, 12 rebounds, and two steals. Even though Donahue likes Rahon to run the offense in the half-court, he has to like Hanlan's ability to push the ball in transition. Every time Hanlan gets the ball you can see him take a look up the court to see if there will be an easy transition basket. That's key to running Donahue's offense.

Rahon shot just 2-7, contributing five points, five rebounds, and six assists. Lonnie chipped in 8 points and two assists on 2-6 shooting. Lonnie Jackson, Hanlan, and Rahon accounted for 116 of BC's minutes. Part of this had to do with Anderson and Heckmann's foul troubles but it was encouraging to see these three take control of BC's offense from start to finish. I think this also confirms that Jackson is in Donahue's long term plans. I'm not sure that Lonnie will be a consistent starter over the next two-plus years, but he's going to get 20+ minutes on a consistent basis. Again, this is the best game we've seen from out front court in some time, but there is still plenty of room for improvement.

Dennis Clifford, who hasn't played in several weeks due to injury, game the team 18 minutes, and his role should increase as he gets into playing shape. This is simply a different team with him on the court, both on the glass and defensively. He had just four points but also gave us five rebounds in his limited minutes. Eddie Odio and Kyle Caudill gave us great minutes in Clifford's absence. Odio continues to be a revelation this season and has clearly been the most improved player on the team. There's no question about his role with this team going forward. He rebounds, moves the ball, makes open shots, and is a high intensity defender, all things you love to see in a bench player.

I don't think this game was a must-win for Donahue, but it certainly helps the perception that the program is moving in the right direction. Anderson and Hanlan continue to be players that this program can build around. Heckmann, Clifford, and Rahon are great pieces. Jackson and Odio will be solid contributors. If this team wants to make a serious NCAA run in 2014 and 2015, I still think we need one more guy to build around, whether that's Jorgenson or someone else (for the record I'm not writing off Owens even though he only has two stars on ESPN, he has an incredibly high ceiling).

Let's beat Holy Cross and Dartmouth and then get some conference wins.

BC Beats UNH 61-59

2012-12-16T15:57:00.001-05:00

BC gritted out a tough overtime win against UNH Sunday, winning 61-59 despite going 0-19 from behind the arc in regulation. Anderson contributed 23 points and 19 rebounds and really put BC on his back down the stretch. Even though "it's only UNH" BC fans really have to like that this team get can an ugly win even when nothing is going its way. It speaks to a certain amount of maturity and mental toughness that we haven't seen from this team yet.

BC struggled mightily on the offensive end today. Not only was the team unable to find shots in transition, but the half-court offense failed to produce as well. BC had a nice flow and found a good number of open looks, but simply couldn't make the shots fall. It's difficult to win when key contributors on the team are having their worst nights in BC uniforms. Rahon was 2-13. Heckmann was 2-11. Jackson was 2-9. Even Hanlan was only 4-11 and just 1-6 from behind the arc.

On defense, BC struggled in the first half guarding Pelcher, UNH's center. Van Nest was clearly over-matched and after seeing 11 minutes in the first half, he did not return. Once Donahue made the move from Van Nest, things started to pick up. Anderson was at least able to slow Pelcher down. Caudill gave BC eight productive minutes. The team ended up holding UNH to just 29.2% shooting in the second half. The second half of today's game was probably the best defense we've seen this team play in two years. Guys were communicating, playing tough at the point of attack, and seemed to have a plan on the pick-and-roll. If nothing else, this team is definitely improving on the defensive end.

Looking forward, BC hopes to get Clifford back for Providence. Clifford's presence has certainly been missed in the paint, and getting him back should help BC on the defensive glass. Heckmann continues to improve even though his stat line did not look pretty today. You can tell that the lights are beginning to come on for him. He understands the offense and is beginning to find the open man with more frequency. Even though he only chipped in six points today, he had just one turnover in 38 minutes. I think he will be our starting 3 going forward.

Time to Panic?

2012-12-09T22:08:00.000-05:00

The men's basketball team's close win over St. Francis has led to a flurry of concern over the direction of the program and Steve Donahue's job status. I am unquestionably less concerned about the direction of the basketball program than any other writer I know of, but I also believe that my confidence in Donahue has less to do with my maroon-and-gold-glasses and more to do with an objective view of the facts.

It simply isn't time to push the panic button yet on Steve Donahue.

It amazes me that Al Skinner's legacy is literally being remade before my eyes. I think a lot of people are allowing their hatred of GDF to cloud their judgment of the situation. Here is a coach that was termed the laziest basketball coach in America by Bob Ryan, a highly respectable Boston beat writer who knows more about BC basketball than anyone on the planet. In his final five seasons at BC, Skinner had win totals of 28, 21, 14, 22, and 15. That's a near linear regression for four out of five years. Given his track record at BC, you would think that Skinner might get a longer leash, but he showed zero sense of urgency to right the ship and accordingly lost his job. We had literally no recruits for the 2009 class and only Brady Heslip, Gabe Moton, and Danny Rubin for the 2010 class.

Fans are upset about Donahue losing Brady Heslip, who would be a nice piece to have right now, but he's not the world beater that some are making him out to be. He averaged 10 points a game in a conference that is significantly easier to play in than the ACC. Even IF he was able to average 10 points a game at BC, that would currently make him the fourth leading scorer on our team, behind Joe Rahon. It's not like we let the next Reggie Jackson transfer.

This team is also incredibly young, which contributes to a lot of mistakes on the court. It's easy to mask basketball IQ mistakes when you immerse a freshman with four upper classmen. Donahue simply doesn't have that luxury. We only got 16 minutes from our best player and zero minutes from arguably our second best player (potentially third, behind Hanlan) yesterday and still came out with a W. It's hard for any team to overcome that, nonetheless a team which is one of the youngest in college basketball. Keep in mind also that in the two years before going 27-5 and starting a truly amazing run of BC basketball, Skinner went 6-21 and 11-19 (including losses to Tulsa, Iona, Seton Hall (twice), and Rutgers). Rebuilding a culture takes time and players need at least two years to physically mature into competitive athletes.

I agree that the team hasn't played as well as expected over the past month, but there are certainly signs of development. Odio, who did not look like a Division 1 player last year, will be a solid contributor off the bench for the next two-plus years. Hanlan and Anderson are going to have very special careers at BC. Rahon and Clifford are solid pieces in the starting lineup. Jackson and Heckmann have shown that they can contribute but to what extent remains to be seen. At worst, both are very good options off the bench.

If we're still losing to College of Charleston and Bryant next year I will undoubtedly be concerned. In the meantime let's just try to keep a little perspective on where we are as a program right now.

Off the ledge everyone.

How Quick Can We Turn This Around?

2012-12-07T20:52:00.002-05:00

Now that we have a new head coach and the beginnings of a staff I'm being asked more frequently what my expectations for next year are. First, I have to say that I'm very impressed that Addazio is already on the recruiting trail, trying to keep Spaz's recruits. Some recruits were excited to play for Doug Martin, and those guys are likely getting preferential treatment right now to shore up their commitments. I also wouldn't be shocked to see Addazio add three or four more quality guys to this class. If he can bring either Matt Barone (17th ranked OL) or Jarred Alwan (44th ranked LB) with him from Temple that would certainly accelerate the rebuilding process.

In the next few years I expect Addazio to make red-shirting players a priority. If we're going to play a more power-oriented style of football we need bigger, more mature players. That means we need guys who have been hitting the weight room for four or five years. That extra year makes a huge difference but it will mean some short-term sacrifices that Spaz never felt secure enough to make. This likely means that progress will be slow, especially in year two, before speeding up in years three and four.

2013 Schedule:

Home:
Stony Brook
Syracuse
Wake Forrest
NC State
FSU
Georgia Tech

Away:
Southern California
Army
Maryland
Clemson
North Carolina
Virginia Tech

There's no reason why we can't get four wins next year, even if some key starters transfer. Army, Wake Forrest, Stony Brook, and Maryland should all be easy wins. We will have a decent opportunity to knock off any of Nc. State, UNC, Va. Tech, and Georgia Tech as well. This team could get as many as six wins if everything goes smoothly, which would certainly go a long way to calming the fan base.

I do think that the team will struggle in year two, simply because of scholarship numbers. Spaz's horrid scholarship management has left this team struggling for manpower. As other bloggers have pointed out, BC has basically been playing with the equivalent on light NCAA scholarship sanctions for a few years now. Because of how many open scholarships we have and because of how few incoming commitments we current have (17 according to ESPN), I expect the 2014 recruiting class to be the maximum 25.

If we make the long-term commitment to red-shirt these players BC will be very short on depth in 2014, which will likely have some impact on our record. Red-shirting players will certainly help this team develop in the right way, and will pay dividends come 2017 and 2018, near the end of Addazio's initial contract. If I was to guess wins per year under Addazio:

2013: 5-7
2014: 5-7
2015: 7-6
2016: 8-5

No matter what happens, Addazio will get four years to try and right the ship. It simply isn't reasonable to hand him this mess and expect him to clean it up in two years. If he gets us back to eight wins by 2016 I would be very satisfied with the progress of the program.

Steve Addazio named HC

2012-12-05T13:59:00.000-05:00

In what will go down as an epic failure of managed expectations, Temple Head Coach Steve Addazio has been hired to take over for Frank Spaziani in Chestnut Hill. Despite reports that BC would sign either Al Golden or Bob Diaco, Brad Bates elected to sign Temple's second year head coach.

Addazio is a safe, solid hire who has the energy to begin rebuilding the BC football program. He has a reputation for being a well connected and effective recruiter and has stolen players away from BC in the past. He focuses primarily on program-building and has a reputation for leaving schematic details to the coordinators. I think there are a lot of parallels between TOB and Addazio. Neither will ever be a "sexy" hire. Both give significant latitude to coordinators. Neither carry a lot of risk but both have relatively modest ceilings. If anything, Addazio has more energy and will be a better recruiter.

The case for hiring Addazio is pretty clear. With conference realignment, BC needs someone who can definitely bring respectability to the program within the next two years. Diaco is enough of an unknown that he could very well have fallen flat on his face at BC, potentially leaving this program beyond repair after three more years of ineptitude. Addazio will have BC at a seven or eight win level by year three guaranteed.

That being said, any hope of BC ending its soap-operaness anytime soon has immediately gone out the window. Addazio seems intent on bringing back BC coaches who previously left the program for Temple. I don't have anything against Ryan Day but he was probably the third best offensive mind on an offensively challenged staff just two years ago. How much has he really learned in one year at Temple? This program may have needed a clean break from the past to move forward.

Then there's the fact that Addazio went just 4-7 last year at Temple. The main excuse (yes, we're already onto excuses) is that Addazio was coaching a Big East schedule with MAC talent. With all respect to the Big East, a 9-4 MAC team is better than a 4-7 Big East team and there's simply no getting around the fact that Temple regressed in year two under Addazio's watch.

This is an extremely controversial hire. When you make a move that is so against the conventional wisdom, you really are strictly liability for the results of that decision. That's true in any field, but especially in sports. If Bates hired Diaco and this team fell flat after three years, everyone would say "at least it was a bold hire, no one could have known." If this hire fails alumns are going to be calling for Bates' head, and rightfully so.

I was more optimistic about this hire before I knew that Day and Rogers are probably making a return to the heights. I don't think anyone knows what to expect at this point. It's going to be a very interesting six years.

BC Blown Out by Harvard 79-63

2012-12-04T20:56:00.001-05:00

There really isn't anything positive to say about this team right now. Almost every aspect of the team is in regression. We're not hitting our shots. We aren't rebounding. The transition defense is in free-fall. Guys simply aren't hustling like they should, especially at home. Lack of hustle is flat-out disrespectful to the university. Hustle is something that Donahue was brought in to make part of the team culture and yet three years into his tenure guys still aren't getting the message. I'm not sure what the answer is but something needs to change with this team. Fans didn't even give this team a courtesy clap as it left the floor so I'm not writing a courtesy recap.

More to come tomorrow on Addazio.

Bates Highlights

2012-12-04T18:52:00.002-05:00

This is the first time I've seen Bates conduct a press conference, and he was incredibly impressive. He unquestionably seems in control of the program and not at all out of his league. I still have some doubts about the Addazio hire, but I really believe that Bates thinks this is the best fit for the university right now.

Here are the highlights.

Addazio was given a six year deal.
Addazio was on Bates' short list while he was athletic director at Miami. Bates mentioned that he will continue to keep a short list of candidates that he constantly monitors, as does every athletic director.
The football team stressed that the next HC needs three qualities. They need someone who will give them the opportunity to win. They need someone who can have relationships with players. They need someone who will bring enthusiasm to the program. Addazio is the strongest candidate in those three respects.
It seems likely that at least one other candidate met with Father Leahy. When asked how many met with Father, Bates said that he didn't want to compromise any other candidates' job security.
Bates believes that Addazio's enthusiasm will enable him to recruit well and inspire the fan base. He is very excited for Addazio to meet the press tomorrow.
Addazio may not bring his complete staff with him from Temple. He is already evaluating potential candidates for his staff and will get the coaches he believes will fit BC best.
Bates said that Addazio was the most prepared of all the candidates for the interview. "He clearly did his homework on us."
Addazio sees this as a dream job, something he had thought about while growing up in the northeast.

Steve Addazio new HC; Bates to Address Media at 6:30

2012-12-04T18:12:00.002-05:00

Bates will address the media at 6:30. If you leave any questions below I will try to ask them in the news conference.

New Poll

2012-12-03T17:56:00.002-05:00

Who would you rather have as HC? Golden, Diaco, or Sullivan?

Update on Final Three

2012-12-03T14:38:00.004-05:00

The general consensus on twitter is that Al Golden is now BC's top choice, with Bob Diaco coming in at number two. Earlier I speculated that Diaco and Sullivan are two of the three finalists, and the addition of Al Golden completes the list. This puts Bates' thinking as:

Al Golden (HC, Miami)
Bob Diaco (DC, Notre Dame)
Mike Sullivan (OC, Buccaneers)

Any of these three would be great fits for BC.

BC Down to Final Three

2012-12-03T10:34:00.000-05:00

Eagle in Atlanta is reporting that Brad Bates has winnowed the head coaching candidates down to three, although no one seems to know for sure which three candidates are still in the mix. Multiple sources are reporting that Notre Dame wonder-boy Bob Diaco is interviewing either today or tomorrow. I think it's pretty safe to say that he's still in the mix.

I strongly suspect that Buccaneers offensive coordinator Mike Sullivan is still in the mix. I didn't do a profile on Sullivan, but I really think he would be a great personality fit for BC. That being said, I'm not sure that he's a good football fit for the program right now. He's never run a program and does not seem to have the coaching experience the university would look for here. BC has had success with turning the keys of the program over to military guys before so there will be alumns who will be rooting hard for Sullivan.

Sullivan's candidacy is probably a reflection of Bates' advice-gathering from the professional level. If Coughlin thinks that Sullivan is a great fit for BC (which seems to be the case) then Bates should definitely give him a long look. It's a tad ridiculous to make a point of gathering advice from difference sources and then ignore that advice if it leads you to a place you hadn't considered before. BC fans wanted Bates to run a broad search and he is doing just that. At the end of the day I just don't think that Sullivan gets the job because he won't energize the fan-base like Diaco can. I do think that Sullivan can turn BC back into an 8 or 9 win program though.

I really have no idea who the third candidate is right now, but I would speculate that it is someone who's a bit of a dark horse candidate at this point. If Golden, Mullen, or O'Brien had shown any interest in BC I think we would be negotiating a contract right now. The lack of chatter on that front leads me to believe that none of those three are interested. I think we can cross Butch Jones off the list as well. Talks between him and Purdue seem to be heating up, and BC would need to get in the mix fast if it really wanted to make a serious bid for him. I'm not sure who that leaves. Pat Narduzzi? Pete Lembo? Either way I think the third guy is a little behind Diaco and Sullivan in terms of BC's preferences right now.

I think that most BC fans would be perfectly happy with Diaco, but would anyone be excited about Sullivan?

Head Coach Profiles: Pat Narduzzi

2012-11-28T19:04:00.000-05:00

The big news today is that the ACC elected to add Louisville instead of either UConn or Cincinnati. I think this was a shrewd move because Louisville was the most likely Big East team to be invited to another major conference. This leaves the ACC with two back-up schools (see what I did there?) in case the SEC succeeds in attracting FSU and Clemson. Frankly I don't know why FSU would even want to move to the SEC. Their odds of winning a national championship are significantly better in the ACC. Did I mention that Louisville hasn't sued Father Leahy?

With all of that out of the way let's discuss Pat Narduzzi.

Basic info: Narduzzi is a Youngstown State graduate where he played football under his father. He is a relatively young HC candidate at 46 years old. He had stops at Rhode Island, Northern Illinois, Miami, and Cincinnati before taking over the defense at Michigan State. He has been a defensive coordinator for ten years, and is looking to get his first shot at a head coaching gig. Most pundits think that Narduzzi getting a head coaching position is a matter of when, not if.

Football Outsiders did not begin tracking college play until the 2005 season, which is after Narduzzi's one year at Miami and his first year at Cincinnati. In his final two years at Cincinnati, the defense was ranked 86 and 16. The year before he took over at Michigan State the defense was ranked 67. Since then the defense has gone 60, 25, 51, 36, 8, and 2. That's about as linear as you're going to find in college sports given that your entire team turns over every four years. Oh yeah, Narduzzi's defense only loses two starters at the end of the year.

Arguments for: You can't deny that Narduzzi is the architect of a great defense at Michigan State and there's nothing to suggest that he can't do the same here. Narduzzi is pretty heavily involved with Michigan State's recruiting (an "ace recruiter") and isn't afraid to mix it up Urban Myer in Ohio. We need that kind of attitude in Chestnut Hill. We need the type of coach who isn't going to back down every time a bigger program wants one of our recruits. This is a guy who can both scheme the defense and get the players that we need to compete. If he can sell Michigan State, he can sell BC.

Arguments against: No head coaching experience. There's nothing to suggest that he can recruit players for the offensive end and we really need a balanced approach right now after the offense has suffered neglect for so long. If you're going to go after a coordinator why would you choose Narduzzi over Diaco, whose defense literally just put Notre Dame into the National Championship game? We need an experienced coach right now, not someone who is going to learn on the job.

Bottom line: I just can't see this happening simply because I think that Bob Diaco is much more attractive to BC than Narduzzi. Narduzzi would definitely improve the program and win a lot of games at BC and I would be completely comfortable with him if that's the direction we decided to go in. If we're throwing around $2 million per year I have to imagine that we have our sights set higher than Narduzzi though.

Head Coach Profiles: Pete Carmichael Jr.

2012-11-27T17:26:00.000-05:00

Adam Schefter is reporting that BC grad Pete Carmichael, Jr. is on BC's radar. Carmichael is likely the only BC grad who will be seriously considered in the head coaching search and his name has been kicked around as a possible replacement for Spaz for quite some time. The BC coaching job would likely be a welcome reprieve from the circus that the Saints have become this season.

Basic Info: Carmichael is from the Sean Payton and Marty Schottenheimer coaching tree. At 41 years old, he had stops with New Hampshire, Louisiana Tech, the Browns, Redskins, and Chargers before landing with the Saints. He started as the Saints' QB coach and has worked his way up to offensive coordinator. With Payton's year-long suspension, this is the first chance that Carmichael has had to run the offense without supervision. Last year the Saints were ranked 2nd in offensive efficiency by Football Outsiders and currently sit at 6th in offensive efficiency this season. By all accounts Carmichael is very highly regarded by his players and they give him more credit for the Saints' past offensive success than the national media does.

Arguments For: Carmichael is a BC grad who will likely see Chestnut Hill as a destination and not just a career stop. Boston College is putting a big emphasis on head coaches who fit with the larger goals of the university and Carmichael seems to be a "fit." His players give him credit for being excellent with the X's and O's of the game, which he seems more involved with than Payton. The offense has seen very little drop-off since Payton's suspension and Doug Marrone's departure. Even though the start of the year was rough, the team is clearly trending in the right direction.

Arguments Against: Carmichael would not be a serious candidate for BC if he wasn't a graduate. BC needs to get the best coach possible no matter where that coach graduated from. Carmichael has never run a team, has very little college experience, and it's frankly difficult to tell how good of a coach he is using Sean Payton and Doug Marrone's system with Drew Brees. It would be difficult not to succeed in that scenario. He has little or no experience recruiting. Doug Marrone, who was more involved in building the Saints' offense than Carmichael, has been a little bit of a mixed bag at Syracuse, going 4-8, 8-5, 5-7, and 7-5 in four years.

Bottom Line: Whether or not you are in favor of Carmichael becoming BC's next head coach likely depends on how much of an emphasis you put on alumnus status. With everything else being equal, having BC's head coach be an alumnus is a nice bonus but I certainly don't put a premium on it. I think that the gap in qualifications between Carmichael and other possible, realistic candidates is such that his graduate status should not make a difference. BC should and likely will give Carmichael a courtesy interview and then take a pass.

Head Coach Profiles: Dave Doeren

2012-11-27T10:47:00.000-05:00

The list of head coaching candidates seems to be in a constant state of flux right now. I still think that we are going to end up with Bob Diaco but I want to spend a few days talking about some of the under-the-radar candidates who might get more consideration if BC's first-tier guys say no. First up is Northern Illinois' Dave Doeren.

Basic Info: Only 40 years old, Doeren stopped at Drake, USC, Montana, and Kansas before taking over as Wisconsin's defensive coordinator from 2006-2010. During his time at Wisconsin, the defense was ranked 13, 26, 43, 25, and 26 by Football Outsiders. In his first year at Northern Illinois, Doeren went 11-3 with a win in the Godaddy.com Bowl. All three losses came within the first five games of the season and were on the road against Wisconsin, Kansas, and Central Michigan. Thus far in year two, Doeren holds an 11-1 record with a lone loss against Iowa. His team faces off against #19 Kent State on Friday for the MAC Championship.

Argument For: Doeren is a young, experienced head coach with a desire to move to a major conference. He clearly has the skill set to fix BC's struggling defense. Northern Illinois is playing its best football in the program's history under his watch. He's probably taken this program as high as it can go. He likely has the most upside of any of BC's head coaching candidates. If we want to be a mediocre team that's fine, but the goal should be to win ACC championships, and Doeren gives us the best chance to do that, even if he presents the most risk as head coach. Also, we need a young, energetic head coach to begin selling BC football to the Boston market.

Arguments Against: Doeren has never built a program from the ground up, something he will be asked to do if he comes to Boston College. He struggles to crack the top 100 in recruiting on Rivals, even if he had prior recruiting experience at Wisconsin. He also walked into a program that had gone 6-7, 7-6, and 10-3 in the three previous seasons under Jerry Kill, who now holds just a 9-14 record at Minnesota. While Doeren has maintained Kill's momentum at Northern Illinois, he didn't walk into the most difficult of situations and has basically won with Kill's recruits over the past two years.

Bottom Line: If we want a young head coach with experience, we aren't going to realistically get a better candidate than Doeren. The fact that BC is such a huge rebuilding project probably means that Doeren will be here for four or five years before he shows the progress necessary to "move up" to an SEC or Big Ten school. By that time, BC will be a much more attractive job.

This would be the most gutsy hire Bates can make. There's huge risk here but also enormous upside. I think the question is really going to be whether BC can stomach the possibility of having two failing coaches in a row. At worst, I think BC would be a six win program after three years of Doeren. At best, I think he can lead us to an ACC Championship game, particularly if the ACC opts to shuffle the divisions to reflect a north-south divide. I think he gets the interview but not the job.

A Look Back at the Spaz Era

2012-11-26T11:32:00.000-05:00

There's a lot to talk about today in the BC sports world. The men's basketball team appears to be regressing. Various names are being thrown out as potential football coaches. The men's hockey team is gearing up for BU this weekend. I will begin posting profiles of potential head coaching candidates over the next few days as candidates begin to emerge. Today, I want to take a look back at the Spaz saga and to put into perspective just how much of a train-wreck the past four years have been.

We begin with the firing of Jags. Having been recently left by TOB for greener pastures (even though there was certainly a sizable portion of alums who wanted him fired), GDF sought a head coach who saw BC as a destination, not just a stop along the way. Spaz had already been passed over for promotion once when Jags was hired. GDF was essentially placed in an interesting dilemma; either hire Spaz as head coach or watch him leave for the next available head coaching opportunity. The general consensus was that Spaz would be given an opportunity to be a head coach, the only question was whether that would be at BC. GDF chose to reward loyalty and to keep the architect of what was a championship level defense. The three other main candidates for the position were Skip Holtz, Al Golden, and Charlie Strong.

There was initial skepticism about Spaz given the lukewarm interest by Charlie Strong and the high interest by Al Golden. There were definitely people who thought this was the right move though. Bob Ryan notably went on the record as saying that he thought Spaz would be a very good recruiter. As long as we could keep a competent offensive coordinator, the defense would remain at a championship level and the team would be fine. The hope was that Spaz would rebuild the nucleus of the team which had begun to erode during the Jags era.

Shortly thereafter, red flags began to emerge. Rumors began spreading that the guys on defense had not lobbied for Spaz. They weren't against his promotion, but they hadn't clamored for it either. This was interesting considering that these guys probably knew his capabilities best. The GT hiring was curious at best.

Half way into the first season, serious problems began to appear. The team would listen to Spaz's "depressing" pregame speeches and then have its own pep talk away from the coaches. Players on offense privately complained about GT. He didn't know his own playbook, became confused about which players were supposed to run which routes, and would frequently chew out players for running the wrong route when the correct route was being run. Spaz was either oblivious to this or willfully ignoring it. He was asleep at the wheel while GT fumbled his way around the offense. A strong defense kept the team in bowl contention as fans clamored for change on the offensive end.

After two years of offense ineptitude, it became clear that change was needed after a disappointing 7-6 campaign. GT went back into retirement and Spaz hired Rogers, an offensive coordinator he simply couldn't get along with. Things quickly went south during the UCF game when Spaz revoked Rogers' play-calling privileges during the first half. There were unsubstantiated reports of a physical altercation which left Rogers with a bloody lip or nose. There was a screaming match on the plane back to Boston. Rogers left the program due to medical issues shortly thereafter. While the medical issues were almost certainly real, there still remains questions concerning whether the medical condition predated the beginning of the season. After a 4-8 record, GDF made an extremely debatable decision to bring Spaz back for one final year, in which he compiled a 2-10 result.

The bottom line here is that the plug should have been pulled on this head coach way earlier than what it was. We should have made a change last year at the latest. Spaz, even though he might be a really nice guy, is simply not capable of running a football program from top to bottom. He should and will get an opportunity to be a defensive coordinator at another school. I think he's even relieved that this nightmare is over, allowing him to get back to doing what he does best.

It's time for a new face of the program.