tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-74053582024-03-18T09:41:54.057+08:00prudent investor newslettersThe art of economics consists in looking not merely at the immediate hut at the longer effects of any act or policy; it consists in tracing the consequences of that policy not merely for one group but for all groups—Henry HazlittUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger728513tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7405358.post-19742838298842583832024-03-18T09:41:00.000+08:002024-03-18T09:41:23.253+08:00January 2024’s Seasonal Fiscal Surplus in the Shadow of DBCC’s 5.1% Deficit-to-GDP Target, What Higher for Longer International Rates Means<p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; color: #000066; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 14pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b><i>All government taxation and spending diminishes saving and consumption by genuine producers, for the benefit of a parasitic burden of consumption spending by nonproducers—Murray N. Rothbard</i></b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 10pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">In this issue:</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; color: red; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b> </b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; color: red; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b>January 2024’s Seasonal Fiscal Surplus in the Shadow of DBCC’s 5.1% Deficit-to-GDP Target, What Higher for Longer International Rates Means</b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; color: #0000cc; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b>I. January 2024’s Seasonal Fiscal Surplus</b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; color: #0000cc; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b>II. January Interest Payments Soared as Government Liquidity Hits All-Time High</b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; color: #0000cc; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b>II. DBCC’s 5.1% 2024 Deficit-to-GDP Target</b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; color: #0000cc; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b>IV. Sharp Decline in January’s Trade Deficits? Capital Goods Import Fell Anew</b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; color: #0000cc; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b>V. 2023 Decline in FDIs Reinforces its 7-Year Downtrend</b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; color: #0000cc; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b>VI. Twin Deficits and BSP’s USD Standard: Philippine External Debt Soared to a Record High in 2023!</b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; color: #0000cc; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b>VII. The Challenge from Higher for Longer International Rates</b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; color: red; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b><u>January 2024’s Seasonal Fiscal Surplus in the Shadow of DBCC’s 5.1% Deficit-to-GDP Target, What Higher for Longer International Rates Means</u></b></span></p><p style="margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></span></p><p style="margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">The Philippines recorded a significant budget surplus in January, but the "twin deficits" will continue to shape the political and economic conditions, according to the DBCC's target.</span></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; color: #0000cc; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b><u>I. January 2024’s Seasonal Fiscal Surplus</u></b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in 0in 0in 0.5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a class="OWAAutoLink" href="https://mb.com.ph/2024/3/15/government-s-budget-surplus-nearly-doubles-in-january" id="OWA7f2ba468-21ab-c7a0-275d-fb7a4aaabfee" style="border: 0px; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Manila Bulletin</a>, March 15, 2024: The Marcos administration's budget surplus nearly doubled in the first month of the year due to strong revenues generated by the government's two main tax agencies. The Bureau of the Treasury reported that the national government posted a fiscal surplus of P88 billion last January, a significant jump of 92 percent compared to P45.7 billion in the same month in 2023. “The fiscal outturn was brought about by a faster 21.15 percent year-over-year increase in revenue collection outpacing the 10.39 percent expansion in government spending,” the Treasury said in a statement. Total revenues rose to P421.8 billion from P348.2 billion last year, driven by higher tax collections which comprised 91.31 percent of the total…“The improvement for the period was largely driven by the shift in VAT [value added tax] remittance from monthly to quarterly, pushing the crediting of fourth-quarter 2023 collections over to January 2024,” the Treasury said.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">News articles like this drool over the supposed accomplishment of the government, where January's budget "doubled" from "strong revenues."</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The politically slanted article ignores the following facts:</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjd5_DwvtbCl2dke4RsbtIj59f0VUCLe_DVMWdlRScVVt7NyGtmaHSV8qVg-Wg9OEqeAh5ihJE-in_97ynsw_6kH7hw_CdsrJhbUer6bqURNoFRafcRU8_2TFjOvAX460QwaSElUVaxFju7uYbjxuKXbPhh0jse1beqU437TBqQ5ZvlBjsTkq-x/s571/Jan24%20A%203.17.24.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><img border="0" data-original-height="571" data-original-width="547" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjd5_DwvtbCl2dke4RsbtIj59f0VUCLe_DVMWdlRScVVt7NyGtmaHSV8qVg-Wg9OEqeAh5ihJE-in_97ynsw_6kH7hw_CdsrJhbUer6bqURNoFRafcRU8_2TFjOvAX460QwaSElUVaxFju7uYbjxuKXbPhh0jse1beqU437TBqQ5ZvlBjsTkq-x/s16000/Jan24%20A%203.17.24.jpg" /></span></a></div><p></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Figure 1</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">First. <a class="OWAAutoLink" href="https://www.treasury.gov.ph/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/COR-Summary_Jan-2024.pdf" id="OWA3f6a0b61-a80b-8781-6901-abc165cef202" style="border: 0px; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Government spending</a> exploded to a historic high last December 2023! (Figure 1, upper window)</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Since authorities raced to fill their coffers, the unprecedented December binge extrapolated to year-end budget overspending. Naturally, it had to reduce its expenditures in the advent of 2024.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">No trend moves in a straight line, as they say.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Further, since authorities shifted towards relying on its fiscal tool to goose up the GDP, surplus months occurred in the 1H of each year since 2016 (except 2020). (Figure 1, lower chart)</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Second. The 2023 budget deficit was the <i>third</i> largest in history and was only 9% off the 2021 zenith.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">By the same token, <b>why the strategical drift from fiscal "stabilizer" to fiscal "dominance?"</b> Is the Philippine economy at risk of a massive downturn to rely on sustained stimulus? Or, why has the economy deepened its dependence on deficit spending?</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">What tools will authorities be left with when the rainy day arrives?</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">As noted in early March,</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in 0in 0in 0.5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">If the Philippine government continues to use its fiscal tool to bolster the GDP at the present pace, <b>it could lose its latitude to unleash policy "stabilizers" when the "sturm and drang" emerge—unless it decides to play with the Russian Roulette of hyperinflation</b>. (Prudent Investor, March 2024)</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Third. The article admits that "the shift in VAT [value added tax] remittance from monthly to quarterly" contributed to the revenue spike.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">A change in the collection schedules represents an administrative task and not a gauge of economic health.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; color: #0000cc; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b><u>II. January Interest Payments Soared as Government Liquidity Hits All-Time High</u></b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Lastly, the biased article crows at January's "primary surplus"...</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in 0in 0in 0.5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">"Excluding interest payments, the government recorded a P162.2 billion primary surplus for January, growing by 75 percent due to the higher revenue outturn for the period.”</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Yet, dampening the impact of the soaring scale of debt interest payments, the article continues...</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in 0in 0in 0.5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Interest payments rose to P74.2 billion, driven by premia from Treasury Bonds and Global Bonds issuance...interest payments (IP), which accounted for the remaining 22.23 percent, rose to P74.2 billion.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2DxZjvevYqAHJx-ApTsGaKqSTlk0Bc4lDMYC7cwO1DOfKsp8Cc0OBcJwWhnl2ldJaSDFfcKYgw2alpUJPwcTHOoZVXEcyWGK5eYXLM6ptqM1hzt4maKIb_3p68LMDAj5J9f48gGetJUGzoA63_UotpcY7GR9HN3eoKUNu2l2yX8jp4VrXyiVS/s501/Jan24%20B%203.17.24.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><img border="0" data-original-height="495" data-original-width="501" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2DxZjvevYqAHJx-ApTsGaKqSTlk0Bc4lDMYC7cwO1DOfKsp8Cc0OBcJwWhnl2ldJaSDFfcKYgw2alpUJPwcTHOoZVXEcyWGK5eYXLM6ptqM1hzt4maKIb_3p68LMDAj5J9f48gGetJUGzoA63_UotpcY7GR9HN3eoKUNu2l2yX8jp4VrXyiVS/s16000/Jan24%20B%203.17.24.jpg" /></span></a></div><p></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Figure 2</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">If authorities have been controlling debt levels and servicing costs, then primary surpluses would matter. </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">But <a class="OWAAutoLink" href="https://www.treasury.gov.ph/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/NG-Debt_Jan2024.pdf" id="OWA0d419595-0937-03cb-30d9-46289f81bbb3" style="border: 0px; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">public debt sprinted</a> to a historic Php 14.79 trillion in January 2024 in the backdrop of the upsurge in interest payments. (Figure 2, upper diagram) </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The share of interest payments to total expenditure (<b>excluding</b> <b>amortizations</b>) appears to be testing its 2019 resistance level—where a breakout seems imminent. (Figure 2 lower image)</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">In addition, monetary authorities claim that the economy has been <a class="OWAAutoLink" href="https://business.inquirer.net/446214/impact-of-high-interest-rates-to-peak-in-%CA%BC24-bsp#:" id="OWAccec921f-9e5d-78d2-ba35-94b26216807e" style="border: 0px; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">impacted by increasing interest rates</a> or "tightening." However, this may only be true for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), but not for the government.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlZrazfjewc2BDdqjKs68ZLAl-_pqDKj_yuR-wOvfuDBRyGqakjG5nEwoam07BWAETlNbSsOpIRxfri4bqmStEZnyhOdIK2Mc4644iPLvwPHDNCDLhb_4mjXJl8uVGmvkOIUZ-_15XazjUYSYZ2pCIneJyjj2alxSwioPPNHsNTsh4fWqKjUFX/s531/Jan24%20C%203.17.24.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><img border="0" data-original-height="506" data-original-width="531" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlZrazfjewc2BDdqjKs68ZLAl-_pqDKj_yuR-wOvfuDBRyGqakjG5nEwoam07BWAETlNbSsOpIRxfri4bqmStEZnyhOdIK2Mc4644iPLvwPHDNCDLhb_4mjXJl8uVGmvkOIUZ-_15XazjUYSYZ2pCIneJyjj2alxSwioPPNHsNTsh4fWqKjUFX/s16000/Jan24%20C%203.17.24.jpg" /></span></a></div><p></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Figure 3</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">In reality, the Treasury's change in cash reserves surged to an all-time high in January (Php 1.08 trillion!) due to a combination of the surplus, public borrowings, and infusions from the financial industry. (Figure 3, upper graph)</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">And so, while banks and parts of the economy scuffle for liquidity, the government has been swimming with it! </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Rephrasing the great George Orwell: "War is peace. Freedom is Slavery. Ignorance is strength." Tightening is abundance.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Simply amazing!</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; color: #0000cc; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b><u>II. DBCC’s 5.1% 2024 Deficit-to-GDP Target</u></b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Guess what happens to the January cash surplus? </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">In 2024, the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) predicts a Php 1.395 trillion deficit or 5.1% of the GDP, rendering surpluses insignificant in the era of deficit spending. (Figure 3, lower table)</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><i>Given the government's intuition to spend other people's money bountifully, spending targets may overshoot, like in 2023.</i></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Besides, the <i>high rates of the GDP have served as the typified basis for these deficit-to-GDP projections</i>, which means <b>that while authorities have programmed spending for the year, revenues mainly depend on economic variability, aside from administrative efficacy</b>.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Even more, a <b>sharp downdraft in the GDP would not only spike the ratio but would be justified to accelerate spending for public "safety net" reasons.</b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Therefore, <b><i>the political tendency is to embrace a higher deficit-to-GDP. Government targets are inconsequential.</i></b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; color: #0000cc; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b><u>IV. Sharp Decline in January’s Trade Deficits? Capital Goods Import Fell Anew</u></b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">That's for the fiscal side of the "twin deficits."</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in 0in 0in 0.5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a class="OWAAutoLink" href="https://www.bworldonline.com/top-stories/2024/03/13/581334/trade-gap-shrinks-to-4-2b-in-jan" id="OWAb77f17ad-8d25-6af2-7b1d-eab6cd4f51a5" style="border: 0px; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Businessworld</a>, March 13, 2024 THE PHILIPPINES’ trade deficit in goods narrowed sharply in January, as exports returned to positive territory while imports growth contracted, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported on Tuesday. reliminary data from the PSA showed the country’s trade-in-goods balance — the difference between exports and imports — reached a deficit of $4.22 billion in January, 24% smaller than the $5.56-billion deficit in January last year. Month on month, the trade gap ballooned from the revised $4.18 billion in December.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The pivotal changes in the banking system's business model and the "era of deficit spending" alternatively translate to sustained and enlarged external merchandise deficits.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b>Since the political economy prioritizes (government and consumer) consumption over production, its adaptive framework increasingly relies on imports of goods and services and access to foreign savings.</b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">As recently noted,</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in 0in 0in 0.5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">In any case, <b>consumer and government consumption deepens the nation's dependence on external trade and financing, which galvanizes the credit-financed misallocations from the "twin deficits." </b>(Prudent Investor, March 2024)</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Sure, January's fiscal surplus signified a deviation.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5Y5OuAuAdmy-hsT-sYfd7wH7S95sDcGiG3aPpxK5iwVjNDO3j3uAfsMMzDeI_SwGpTMWb40ELSHbxDjjdYsOxeQ9-tC4NjKC19CKzl-rz2MY3kwC2mvcd4Zk9oJlvgviilzJgNA2_KNXT2StE76DzwAV99F6prpBCBSUJgbe9LjMlmRk7q2pP/s728/Jan24%20D%203.17.24.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><img border="0" data-original-height="728" data-original-width="536" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5Y5OuAuAdmy-hsT-sYfd7wH7S95sDcGiG3aPpxK5iwVjNDO3j3uAfsMMzDeI_SwGpTMWb40ELSHbxDjjdYsOxeQ9-tC4NjKC19CKzl-rz2MY3kwC2mvcd4Zk9oJlvgviilzJgNA2_KNXT2StE76DzwAV99F6prpBCBSUJgbe9LjMlmRk7q2pP/w472-h640/Jan24%20D%203.17.24.jpg" width="472" /></span></a></div><p></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Figure 4</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Still, while January 2024 posted a 24% YoY improvement in the <a class="OWAAutoLink" href="https://psa.gov.ph/content/highlights-philippine-export-and-import-statistics-january-2024-preliminary" id="OWA70cf4571-241f-36bf-1a84-54de9dbca8b6" style="border: 0px; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">trade deficit</a>—mainly a function of base effects—internal configurations remain almost unaltered. (Figure 4, topmost image)</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">January's 9.1% export boom? That's also mainly due to the low base effects.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Semiconductor exports, which accounted for a 45.5% share of the total, jumped 19.9% on low base effects. (Figure 4, middle graph) But nominal figures have been declining. </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The 7.6% contraction of imports? Capital goods imports declined by 6.5%, while consumer goods imports increased by 15.8%. In nominal USD terms—imports have been an uptrend for consumer goods, while capital goods have traded sideways. (Figure 4, lowest chart)</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">High GDP predictions? <b>Slowing imports of capital goods have barely presaged a high GDP. Economic growth requires investments. Aside from replacements, stagnant capital goods imports reinforce the deepening dependence on consumer imports. </b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; color: #0000cc; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b><u>V. 2023 Decline in FDIs Reinforces its 7-Year Downtrend</u></b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">How about <a class="OWAAutoLink" href="https://www.bsp.gov.ph/SitePages/MediaAndResearch/MediaDisp.aspx?ItemId=7026" id="OWAa6e1b243-2036-f4b3-8837-e643d9cb040c" style="border: 0px; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Foreign Direct Investments</a> (FDIs)?</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Despite a peripatetic leadership, supposedly selling the Philippines as an investment hub, FDI investments slipped 6.6% in 2023 in the face of a weaker peso. In short, aside from the politicized pitch towards nations belonging to the US-NATO alliance, the weak currency has hardly attracted economically significant investments.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmD77Lg9dQYw9SglHCsJF8t7sODZhM_f5C-ORa3OX6ybLcHz_gIaGpLYCKAHZ8FkMAgButRUOS8XCrmxbaeyq4dujI6_RuJbp-9SVwd0KrT31Ah-xiSbsHmxFfdMz2XZUmE5kWT_jedm1jUOAOhTLpWMfpsuV2TVDE3VKaIF2JyY4I65F1IgZb/s540/Jan24%20E%203.17.24.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><img border="0" data-original-height="540" data-original-width="522" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmD77Lg9dQYw9SglHCsJF8t7sODZhM_f5C-ORa3OX6ybLcHz_gIaGpLYCKAHZ8FkMAgButRUOS8XCrmxbaeyq4dujI6_RuJbp-9SVwd0KrT31Ah-xiSbsHmxFfdMz2XZUmE5kWT_jedm1jUOAOhTLpWMfpsuV2TVDE3VKaIF2JyY4I65F1IgZb/s16000/Jan24%20E%203.17.24.jpg" /></span></a></div><p></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Figure 5</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">An even more troubling sign has been the <i>downtrend</i> of FDI flows since 2017 (On the assumption that 2021's debt spike appears to be an anomaly). (Figure 5, upper graph)</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Worst, debt flows, which don't guarantee productive investments, constituted the gist of FDI flows since 2012. (Figure 5, lower chart)</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; color: #0000cc; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b><u>VI. Twin Deficits and BSP’s USD Standard: Philippine External Debt Soared to a Record High in 2023!</u></b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The thing is, this Keynesian-inspired spending splurge via the "twin deficits" requires financing. </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b>With the government and major corporations as net borrowers and the low levels of household savings, the domestic political economy increasingly depends on foreign savings to fill its FX requirements gap.</b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieefLFoIblAtHkx05qlKuodN6JqxLnJ57wszQjl5bIl_ncYYtRtBWynZZhWqFwni1BiXIUtpeG3K8BV_Gc4XQjwo9erKMwODSI1fGuCStdnV3UVocTuzAYjHtnRkJMQ-dZ1SwIejoLoPmsNLzjmrQiLo8fXKiG1rZ-IUvt_9X67zIRtGYxVHS7/s526/Jan24%20F%203.17.24.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><img border="0" data-original-height="515" data-original-width="526" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieefLFoIblAtHkx05qlKuodN6JqxLnJ57wszQjl5bIl_ncYYtRtBWynZZhWqFwni1BiXIUtpeG3K8BV_Gc4XQjwo9erKMwODSI1fGuCStdnV3UVocTuzAYjHtnRkJMQ-dZ1SwIejoLoPmsNLzjmrQiLo8fXKiG1rZ-IUvt_9X67zIRtGYxVHS7/s16000/Jan24%20F%203.17.24.jpg" /></span></a></div><p></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Figure 6</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a class="OWAAutoLink" href="https://www.bsp.gov.ph/SitePages/MediaAndResearch/MediaDisp.aspx?ItemId=7033" id="OWA248c4c1d-3451-c0f7-f874-9895052056be" style="border: 0px; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Philippine external debt</a> was up by 12.7% YoY to hit a fresh record of USD 125.4 billion in 2023. This data excludes external liabilities of shadow banks/financial institutions.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The accelerated rise of the nation's external debt has been in tandem with fiscal deficits. (Figure 6, upper diagram)</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Public sector borrowing was up 17.9% in Q4 2023 to an all-time high of USD 72.7 billion. (Figure 6, lower window)</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Public sector borrowing accounted for 58% of the total.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAhnQOLZbO-ugk7FhqO6-pGKf0sJGFFrpyXi9lstYhm1jw1_3BF3Y01njm96V8g3T_txzKIcd5ydKjVPOa2aTzjlba8zVE9k55xwS-8-rOJnBfWSULi997PLKzZEhBvzXL8tbr_yB2f0l2hrCkYNWcTjqhjr_ht6stq5qiYyyFVYVDMFYp4jzG/s686/Jan24%20G%203.17.24.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><img border="0" data-original-height="686" data-original-width="518" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAhnQOLZbO-ugk7FhqO6-pGKf0sJGFFrpyXi9lstYhm1jw1_3BF3Y01njm96V8g3T_txzKIcd5ydKjVPOa2aTzjlba8zVE9k55xwS-8-rOJnBfWSULi997PLKzZEhBvzXL8tbr_yB2f0l2hrCkYNWcTjqhjr_ht6stq5qiYyyFVYVDMFYp4jzG/w484-h640/Jan24%20G%203.17.24.jpg" width="484" /></span></a></div><p></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Figure 7</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Philippine external debt has exceeded the comparable BSP's December <a class="OWAAutoLink" href="https://www.bsp.gov.ph/Statistics/External/tab4_gir.aspx" id="OWA0f3e61fd-8efb-a696-fc30-6746fd32ecfe" style="border: 0px; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Gross International Reserves (GIR)</a>, which stood at USD 103.8 billion in December 2023. (Figure 7, topmost image)</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">External borrowings have boosted the Philippines' Balance of Payments (BoP) flow to a surplus (Q4 and 2023) via the Financial Account.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in 0in 0in 0.5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in 0in 0in 0.5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><u>Financial Account.</u> The financial account recorded net inflows (or net borrowings by residents from the rest of the world) of US$6.4 billion in Q4 2023, higher by 208.5 percent than the US$2.1 billion net inflows in Q4 2022…</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in 0in 0in 0.5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in 0in 0in 0.5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><u>Financial Account.</u> The financial account registered net inflows (or net borrowing by residents from the rest of the world) of US$15.4 billion in 2023, higher by 11.0 percent than the US$13.9 billion in 2022. (BSP, March 2024)</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Yet a part of the borrowing spree may have accounted for the buildup of the GIR.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Or, since 2018, the BSP has relied on "borrowed reserves" (including Other Reserve Assets--ORA) to manage its GIR/assets. [data based on IMF’s <a class="OWAAutoLink" href="https://data.imf.org/?sk=2DFB3380-3603-4D2C-90BE-A04D8BBCE237" id="OWA222985d0-67bb-b8e2-31bb-6ee0dd8c42ba" style="border: 0px; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity—IRFCL</a>) (Figure 7, middle chart)</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">And since the BSP embarked on its aggressive QE via <a class="OWAAutoLink" href="https://www.bsp.gov.ph/Statistics/Financial%20System%20Accounts/tab20_bal.aspx" id="OWAa372e19f-2a18-b22c-b935-68fe81f58898" style="border: 0px; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">its balance sheet</a> expansion to save the banking system in 2020, the mix in favor of international assets—which functioned as the <i>de facto</i> US Dollar anchor—has been drastically altered.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Since 2010, the BSP has kept its FX holdings in a tight range of 85-87% share, again, implicitly an anchor to the de facto USD standard. (Figure 7, lower graph)</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">However, the BSP's mass acquisition of domestic assets in 2020 pulled lower the share of FX holdings. </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Therefore, aside from funding the FX gap from the "twin deficits" to showcase the facade of a "sound macroeconomy," perhaps a portion of this debt has been allocated for BSP assets/GIR.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; color: #0000cc; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b><u>VII. The Challenge from Higher for Longer International Rates</u></b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b>The challenge is that "borrowed reserves" or "USD shorts" depend on the sustained global easy money regime.</b> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Higher for longer international rates translate to <b>increased cost of acquiring and maintaining "borrowed reserves."</b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Higher for longer also translates to <b>a costlier access to FX savings.</b> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">It also <b>means a weaker peso or requiring more peso revenues to pay for extant dollar liabilities</b>.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b>Most of all, a restrictive international monetary regime also exposes the unsustainability and the inherent fragility of credit-financed "twin deficits."</b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">___</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">References</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Prudent Investor Newsletters, <a class="OWAAutoLink" href="https://open.substack.com/pub/theseenandunseenbybjte/p/2023-philippine-deficit-spending" id="OWA8b79c0bc-0315-41ba-fe9b-76bc319bf8cc" style="border: 0px; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">2023 Philippine Deficit Spending: Surging Debt and Debt Servicing and the Widening Impact of the Crowding Out Effect; December’s Unreported Historic Data!</a> March 3, 2024, Substack</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; color: #212529; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Department of Budget and Management, </span><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a class="OWAAutoLink" href="https://www.dbm.gov.ph/index.php/management-2/2513-186th-dbcc-joint-statement" id="OWAb82fc439-dfcc-419c-4d2a-623879464a33" style="border: 0px; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Review of the Medium-Term Macroeconomic Assumptions and Fiscal Program for FY 2023 to 2028</a>, </span><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; color: #212529; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">186th DBCC Joint Statement, December 15, 2023</span></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Prudent Investor Newsletters <a class="OWAAutoLink" href="https://open.substack.com/pub/theseenandunseenbybjte/p/stagflation-ahoy-philippine-february?" id="OWAff69058c-bcf7-0b7e-95a6-d2c8514bcecb" style="border: 0px; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Stagflation Ahoy! Philippine February CPI Rebounds as January Employment Rate Fell</a>, March 10, 2024</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas <a class="OWAAutoLink" href="https://www.bsp.gov.ph/SitePages/MediaAndResearch/MediaDisp.aspx?ItemId=7031" id="OWA37d14244-0b45-7e67-72b5-736078153970" style="border: 0px; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">BOP Position in Q4 2023 Posts a Higher Surplus, Reverses to a Surplus in Full-Year 2023</a> March 15, 2024</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 10pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in 0in 8pt;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 11pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">This content provided courtesy of <a href="http://prudentinvestornewsletters.blogspot.com/">Prudent Investor Newsletter</a></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7405358.post-27408445033782765822024-03-17T10:47:00.000+08:002024-03-17T10:47:28.033+08:00Jollibee’s 2023 Record Sales and Income in the Lens of Consumer Health, Inflation and the Economy<p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; color: #000066; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 14pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b><i>Because credits springing from fiat inflation provide an easy financial edge, they have the tendency to encourage reckless behavior by the chief executives. This is especially the case with managers of large corporations who have easy access to the capital markets. Their recklessness is often confused with innovativeness—Jörg Guido Hülsmann</i></b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 11pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">In this issue:</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; color: red; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b>Jollibee’s 2023 Record Sales and Income in the Lens of Consumer Health, Inflation and the Economy</b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; color: #0000cc; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b>I. Measuring Consumer Health: An Alternative View of Jollibee’s Record Sales</b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; color: #0000cc; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b>II. Q4 2023 Domestic Sales Growth Rate Fell to a 2.5-Year Low!</b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; color: #0000cc; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b>III. JFC Sales Slowed More than the Food Service GDP (Q4 and 2023)</b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; color: #0000cc; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b>IV. Slowing Sales Growth in the Face of Record Employment Rate and Historic Consumer Credit Growth? JFC’s Pacman Strategy Redux</b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; color: #0000cc; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b>V. As a Primary Beneficiary of the BSP’s Inflation, JFC Widened Margins Pushed Net Income to Record Highs</b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; color: #0000cc; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b>VI. Despite Lower Debt Levels, Higher Rates Increased JFC Debt Servicing Costs</b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; color: #0000cc; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b>VII. Rising PER and Increasing Free Float Share of the PSEi 30; Conclusion</b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; color: red; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b><u>Jollibee’s 2023 Record Sales and Income in the Lens of Consumer Health, Inflation and the Economy</u></b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Inflation and market concentration boosted Jollibee's 2023 record revenues and income despite the deterioration in consumer health.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #1c1c1c; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; color: #0000cc; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b><u>I. Measuring Consumer Health: An Alternative View of Jollibee’s Record Sales</u></b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in 0in 0in 0.5in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a class="OWAAutoLink" href="https://malaya.com.ph/news_business/jollibee-sales-hit-record/" id="OWA33bd7202-af82-4bf1-5eb0-8bbf8fbeab22" style="border: 0px; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Malaya Business Insights</a>, March 13: Jollibee Foods Corp. (JFC) grew its profit by 22.4 percent last year to P8.98 billion from P7.34 billion the prior year. Revenues rose 15.2 percent to P244.11 billion from P211.9 billion, over systemwide sales (SWS) of P345.32 billion, up 16.3 percent from P296.82 billion. “Our full year 2023 results reflect the strength of our execution and resiliency of our brands. We achieved an all-time high revenue of P244.1 billion, a 15.2 percent increase year-over-year which translated to a new record operating profit of P14.4 billion, up by 45 percent compared to full year 2022. Year-on-year, we improved gross profit and operating profit margins each by 120 basis points (bps), reinforced by our cost efficiency initiatives and our ability to control non-inventory-related costs,” said Ernesto Tanmantiong, Jollibee chief executive officer.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Based on the published financial performance of 2023, the Philippine economy has been flourishing, according to the headlines.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Jollibee's [PSE: JFC] record sales and income levels is an example.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Because JFC is the undisputed market leader in the domestic retail food industry, its health gives a vital insight into consumer conditions.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2qZVNQn6o9TDMKE0P3p2yjMWqx7_1h5jJDXaVsoVdIhHNML0biCdvLN2_oWAKzsFZJNj4eVyB7Cx_08MT-rLXIow9Vf_48y1U_bnovrBE5CC26y4rZeXcwIk6cP50c2pWDqaoBZnDvKVBCKMUIR2RAuL8NUbhL6Kzw4aSmYnreQtByJZnFG7f/s626/JFC23%20A%203.16.24.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><img border="0" data-original-height="626" data-original-width="546" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2qZVNQn6o9TDMKE0P3p2yjMWqx7_1h5jJDXaVsoVdIhHNML0biCdvLN2_oWAKzsFZJNj4eVyB7Cx_08MT-rLXIow9Vf_48y1U_bnovrBE5CC26y4rZeXcwIk6cP50c2pWDqaoBZnDvKVBCKMUIR2RAuL8NUbhL6Kzw4aSmYnreQtByJZnFG7f/w558-h640/JFC23%20A%203.16.24.jpg" width="558" /></span></a></div><p></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Figure 1</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">In 2023, international sales have anchored JFC's historic peso revenues of Php 244 billion. Because of the low base, JFC grew by 84% from the pre-pandemic high in 2019. [Figure 1, upper chart]</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">In contrast, 2023 domestic sales signified 17.4% above the same period. The firm's unprecedented total revenue was 35% above the former 2019 record.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">JFC's domestic sales (15.9%) outgrew its international sales (13.7% YoY), but these numbers were down in the last two years: 20.3% in 2021, and 39.5% in 2022 for the local sales vis-a-vis 17.4%, and 35% for international sales. </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">In total, 2023's sales grew by 15.2%, lower than 38% in 2022 and 18.8% in 2021.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">And so, a relative comparison of growth rates reveals JFC's tangible slowdown.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Nevertheless, JFC previously backed up the truck on globalization. It lavished on overseas capex and asset growth over the past years until the post-pandemic 2021-2023. [Figure 1, lower pane]</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Yet, the company seemed to have recalibrated its business strategy. </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Despite being designated as the "<a class="OWAAutoLink" href="https://www.philstar.com/business/2024/02/26/2336076/jollibee-named-worlds-2nd-fastest-growing-restaurant-brand" id="OWAf9a62a9d-b608-02b8-7d14-d5c314a37cbd" style="border: 0px; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">fastest-growing restaurant brand in the world</a>," domestic sales continue to anchor its sales. The % share of domestic sales has been recovering marginally since 2020.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><i>The lack of impact from their overseas investments may have prompted a shift in their directional or strategic approach.</i></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKjjNoQXFoO6aYS2BsGw_NzV-LzOAoi4JlSPoavjI5cDRL6Rbmc6QKLd50hym0B6XgB0J3xpkLDmMZhkMuD1xlABixf42lYh_9nHjZNhfBhNj8GPlmOkXxho77o5vJZs32gKzXM95kG93rXYyj8sVjan9piCpoeBqzWkcZ5hZnl6MMhmV_YUoB/s537/JFC23%20B%203.16.24.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><img border="0" data-original-height="505" data-original-width="537" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKjjNoQXFoO6aYS2BsGw_NzV-LzOAoi4JlSPoavjI5cDRL6Rbmc6QKLd50hym0B6XgB0J3xpkLDmMZhkMuD1xlABixf42lYh_9nHjZNhfBhNj8GPlmOkXxho77o5vJZs32gKzXM95kG93rXYyj8sVjan9piCpoeBqzWkcZ5hZnl6MMhmV_YUoB/s16000/JFC23%20B%203.16.24.jpg" /></span></a></div><p></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Figure 2</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">And despite the headlines, sales per store growth has been declining since 2021, with the cargo tilted towards overseas stores. [Figure 2, upper image]</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Or, from the JFC's scorecard, domestic system-wide sales (SWS) growth slumped from 44.6% in 2022 to 17.6% in 2023, while overseas SWS fell from 34% to 14.4%.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Domestic same-store sales growth also plummeted from 40.6% in 2022 to 13.9% in 2023, while international identical store sales fell from 7% to 5.3%. </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Store expansions and closure also provide some clues.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in 0in 0in 0.5in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The JFC Group opened 658 new stores in 2023: 123 in the Philippines and 535 overseas (101 in China, 19 in NA and 40 in EMEAA. The JFC Group’s coffee and tea brands, SuperFoods, CBTL, and Milksha continued to drive the growth in store network with the opening of 192, 138 and 45 stores, respectively. A total of 225 stores were permanently closed in 2023: 69 in the Philippines and 156 abroad. (Jollibee, 2023)</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in 0in 0in 0.5in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The JFC Group opened 542 new stores in 2022: 123 in the Philippines and 419 overseas (86 in China, 25 in NA and 35 in EMEAA. CBTL, SuperFoods, and Milksha opened 103, 137 and 33 stores, respectively. A total of 259 stores were permanently closed in 2022: 58 in the Philippines and 201 abroad. (Jollibee, 2022)</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Though more stores opened in 2023, the closure of more domestic stores in 2023 compared with 2022 further points to the weakness of Jollibee's main clients—the local mass market.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">In a nutshell, <i>signs of developing weakness have surfaced in JFC's domestic and overseas markets.</i></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; color: #0000cc; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b><u>II. Q4 2023 Domestic Sales Growth Rate Fell to a 2.5-Year Low!</u></b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">But there's more.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The firm's quarterly activities, its comparison to the economy, and the influence of inflation provide a more trenchant observation of its financial health.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Measured in quarterly performance, Q4 2023 domestic sales growth of 7.8% signified the <i>lowest</i> since the pandemic lockdown days of Q2 2021! [Figure 2, lower diagram]</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">And that was a period marked by holiday spending! Interestingly, the slowdown in quarterly sales growth emerged from Q2 2023. Incredible.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">In essence, Q1's 34% growth delivered the gist of the 15.2% annual revenue increase. The sharply reduced growth rate in the succeeding quarters reinforced the downtrend of the annual topline growth.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; color: #0000cc; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b><u>III. JFC Sales Slowed More than the Food Service GDP (Q4 and 2023)</u></b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">How did JFC's domestic sales growth perform relative to the sector's GDP?</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIJepOxZ6yDcZ2lm0ke8Km_nNu3Vyva9dxT-JJg28DeCYVdWZmWFGxvUMOIu4dUhhB_aSLdqkoGfKK07_xZ13F66XQPoJ4E2Mc_gSIfmEsg0W5w1yiCxQ8-ueVb9ChsMmb7uTuQiVlKxKK9MPLKTzXLEzmOxznHDL5ETmCnuRW1Y4FNwCBuzTl/s599/JFC23%20C%203.16.24.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><img border="0" data-original-height="599" data-original-width="531" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIJepOxZ6yDcZ2lm0ke8Km_nNu3Vyva9dxT-JJg28DeCYVdWZmWFGxvUMOIu4dUhhB_aSLdqkoGfKK07_xZ13F66XQPoJ4E2Mc_gSIfmEsg0W5w1yiCxQ8-ueVb9ChsMmb7uTuQiVlKxKK9MPLKTzXLEzmOxznHDL5ETmCnuRW1Y4FNwCBuzTl/w568-h640/JFC23%20C%203.16.24.jpg" width="568" /></span></a></div><p></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Figure 3</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a class="OWAAutoLink" href="https://psa.gov.ph/statistics/national-accounts/data-series" id="OWA235a5abc-446b-b506-a4f8-57c42260a15a" style="border: 0px; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Real food services GDP</a> growth slowed from 18.5% in Q3 to 17.4% in Q4. It peaked in the reopening of Q2 2021 and has been southbound since. [Figure 3, upper diagram]</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">JFC's "real" or inflation-adjusted revenues may have grown by only 4.1% in Q4, lower than the 10.7% in Q3.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">In annual terms, JFC's "real" revenue growth could be at 10% compared with the "real" 18.8% growth of the Food Services GDP in 2023. [Figure 3, lower graph]</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The sharp difference between JFC's revenues and the Food Services GDP means that despite its unchallenged market leadership, <i>SMEs grew substantially faster than JFC, or the gap may reflect an overstatement of the sector's GDP.</i></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">But this (Food GDP-JFC sales) chasm would hardly be the case since JFC's market leadership exhibits deepened market concentration. </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">In 2019, we discussed JFC's shift to a leveraged "Pacman Strategy,"</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in 0in 0in 0.5in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b>Firms with liberal access to credit can buy out competing firms, and therefore, result in the concentration of the industry. </b>(Prudent Investor, 2019)</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; color: #0000cc; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b><u>IV. Slowing Sales Growth in the Face of Record Employment Rate and Historic Consumer Credit Growth? JFC’s Pacman Strategy Redux</u></b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">That isn't all.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6p6mK5AOKXPngxI3lM5zp3OHVQTPXgngyrG_ZpfSvTwzqQ_ox8lN5V-5iwZsJAnXeDdpYiBJzOuouythCBM9tgAA1UWKuWGNx2AYMyoy-qSzt3PyZiMsMvxpO7EO9Np9yIMO8dbrCJA156u7258g_HKktoYohcojVCgoIicVDKaz7t_D3H5AV/s567/JFC23%20D%203.16.24.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><img border="0" data-original-height="567" data-original-width="510" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6p6mK5AOKXPngxI3lM5zp3OHVQTPXgngyrG_ZpfSvTwzqQ_ox8lN5V-5iwZsJAnXeDdpYiBJzOuouythCBM9tgAA1UWKuWGNx2AYMyoy-qSzt3PyZiMsMvxpO7EO9Np9yIMO8dbrCJA156u7258g_HKktoYohcojVCgoIicVDKaz7t_D3H5AV/w576-h640/JFC23%20D%203.16.24.jpg" width="576" /></span></a></div><p></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Figure 4</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Remember, the government bragged about the record-high <a class="OWAAutoLink" href="https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1901151/psa-jobless-rate-posted-new-record-low-in-december" id="OWAed0edffc-58d1-1401-c05f-53dba71b74bd" style="border: 0px; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">employment rates</a> last December (also Q4)? What happened to this labor windfall? [Figure 5, upper pane]</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">That's right. Jollibee's materially slowing quarterly sales, especially in Q4, dispute the alleged increased consumer spending capacity. </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">It <a class="OWAAutoLink" href="https://open.substack.com/pub/theseenandunseenbybjte/p/deciphering-conflicting-data-record?" id="OWA814a6c33-523e-29d3-085f-40087f4cb84b" style="border: 0px; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">strengthens our case</a> about statistical anomalies or inaccuracies (deliberate or not).</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The brisk growth rate or the historic increase in peso levels of <a class="OWAAutoLink" href="https://www.bsp.gov.ph/Statistics/Financial%20System%20Accounts/kbloans.aspx" id="OWA922338f6-dc71-ec2d-5fde-4b7584d6e3f5" style="border: 0px; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">consumer credit</a> may have also been instrumental in JFC's unprecedented peso sales in 2023. [Figure 5, lower image]</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b>Concisely, JFC's 2023 feat must have been a product of credit-financed deficit spending and aggressive growth in consumer credit rather than productivity improvements.</b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">For this reason, <b><i>inflation has played a substantial role in JFC's overall financial performance</i></b>.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; color: #0000cc; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b><u>V. As a Primary Beneficiary of the BSP’s Inflation, JFC Widened Margins Pushed Net Income to Record Highs</u></b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">With its predominant market position, JFC became a <b><i>principal beneficiary</i></b> of the BSP's monetary inflation—its profit margin soared along with inflation rates! </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhc0Fd1lb1XLycZvwP5SRb8jd7wd_ajobh4hl_410-6k5I67vw8S3QVN0ATNLLCzKsYO7_ZpeyU_9xL7efOGyNxwyvuFirxfcli_W6WFGHvtl1Y2fn9ZJ4MYVKSF9TJW4XzrOukpTYum0Au2JrkjmTaGNhSMoMrNLQM-QW_AhQdaNnLfCPVh0FH/s597/JFC23%20E%203.16.24.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><img border="0" data-original-height="597" data-original-width="528" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhc0Fd1lb1XLycZvwP5SRb8jd7wd_ajobh4hl_410-6k5I67vw8S3QVN0ATNLLCzKsYO7_ZpeyU_9xL7efOGyNxwyvuFirxfcli_W6WFGHvtl1Y2fn9ZJ4MYVKSF9TJW4XzrOukpTYum0Au2JrkjmTaGNhSMoMrNLQM-QW_AhQdaNnLfCPVh0FH/w566-h640/JFC23%20E%203.16.24.jpg" width="566" /></span></a></div><p></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Figure 5</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">JFC benefitted either from its price pass-through effect on consumers or managed to control input costs through different channels ("cost efficiency initiatives and our ability to control non-inventory-related costs," shrinkflation, value deflation, etc.?) or from a combination thereof, resulting in its record profit (in pesos) despite the slowdown in its growth rate.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">In 2023, profit margins widened to 18.9%, a hair breath away from 2017's pinnacle of 19%. [Figure 5, upper illustration]</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><i>Profit margins increased in the first wave of inflation in 2015-2017 and the recent second wave in 2020-23.</i></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">But even then, JFC's published net income grew by 22.4% in 2023, lower than the 38.4% in 2022—which may be a sign of struggling consumers. [Figure 5, lower chart]</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Still, net income (in peso levels) was at an all-time high in 2023.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Or, <i>JFC's record sales and income levels in 2023 were significantly boosted by inflation!</i></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Given the backdrop of the softness of consumer spending, we await the publication of the annual reports to see how JFC's performance affected its smaller rivals.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; color: #0000cc; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b><u>VI. Despite Lower Debt Levels, Higher Rates Increased JFC Debt Servicing Costs</u></b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGzrZZhN-OcEHE-GWP56Pu13mOI1au5nhPGfVszTom4eOdwSEaf_C_cDE1deHYnayTsDZzOeaGAbMGtaR5zl0v6aW7aFMeZ4Ztq4NdyjiBTYqO4jsjTEuCnpOi5ZF32flgIOrfYLvs8fyaPcJXcAK-CgiQYEyzT9iQwP0J0GE-m7kmLRI1ai4L/s582/JFC23%20G%203.16.24.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><img border="0" data-original-height="582" data-original-width="517" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGzrZZhN-OcEHE-GWP56Pu13mOI1au5nhPGfVszTom4eOdwSEaf_C_cDE1deHYnayTsDZzOeaGAbMGtaR5zl0v6aW7aFMeZ4Ztq4NdyjiBTYqO4jsjTEuCnpOi5ZF32flgIOrfYLvs8fyaPcJXcAK-CgiQYEyzT9iQwP0J0GE-m7kmLRI1ai4L/w568-h640/JFC23%20G%203.16.24.jpg" width="568" /></span></a></div><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><br /></span><p></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Figure 6</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">To be sure, after reaching a zenith in 2020, JFC has been reducing its debt level marginally. [F</span><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">igure 6, upper window]</span></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="font-family: verdana; font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-weight: inherit;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">From 2020's pinnacle of Php 63.8 billion, it was down by 19% to Php 51.5 billion in 2023. </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Despite that, the company's debt servicing cost continues to rise amidst rate hikes by the BSP (and the Fed—for FX debt). </span><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[F</span><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">igure 6, lower visuals]</span></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">JFC proposes to raise Php 8 billion in preferred shares "<a class="OWAAutoLink" href="https://business.inquirer.net/449595/jollibee-to-raise-up-to-p8b-from-preferred-share-sale" id="OWA97b550ea-581d-df54-6398-be3234a2bf06" style="border: 0px; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">mainly to refinance maturing obligations</a>."</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">So, akin to other PSEi 30 issues, fund-raising has mainly been about refinancing existing debt, which subject firms to heightened interest rate volatility and risks. </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; color: #0000cc; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b><u>VII. Rising PER and Increasing Free Float Share of the PSEi 30; Conclusion</u></b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Since its fall in 2019, market participants of the PSE have pumped JFC shares (end of the year) to raise its year-end price-earnings ratio, exhibiting price multiple expansion rather than improvements in "fundamentals." March 15th's close signified a 15.6 PER (2023 eps).</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgporaA0wxGdKspTxHilmulhgMkozOevV4jf_FvlA4y9ojgCxIP3gYIYcY_lsR-1NQiDmLqAARW0j1DgWmzpWKf7h8R-TRtLViPJXDKDmN7nzVJZNMy96KczELPKrFWtfNub-FHwPQF5Hj-04orozFQHi5ZljcFrM6ZLJVOZIjTiaLVR8Uv8BVe/s501/JFC23%20F%203.16.24.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><img border="0" data-original-height="301" data-original-width="501" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgporaA0wxGdKspTxHilmulhgMkozOevV4jf_FvlA4y9ojgCxIP3gYIYcY_lsR-1NQiDmLqAARW0j1DgWmzpWKf7h8R-TRtLViPJXDKDmN7nzVJZNMy96KczELPKrFWtfNub-FHwPQF5Hj-04orozFQHi5ZljcFrM6ZLJVOZIjTiaLVR8Uv8BVe/s16000/JFC23%20F%203.16.24.jpg" /></span></a></div><p></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Figure 7</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Trend-following activities have also pushed JFC's free float market cap higher to 3.55% at the close of 2023. It was 3.42% last Friday. JFC ranked 9th in the 30 elite members of the PSEi 30.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b><i> </i></b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b><i>To sum up, the world's transition towards de-globalization and increasing focus on deficit spending elevates critical risk factors such as inflation, interest rates, etc., intensifying the fragility of a highly leveraged consumer-dependent environment. JFC's 2023 performance only validated these escalating vulnerabilities.</i></b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 10pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in 0in 8pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 11pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> ___</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in 0in 8pt;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">References:</span></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Jollibee 17-A <a class="OWAAutoLink" href="https://edge.pse.com.ph/openDiscViewer.do?edge_no=a4678a472345f617abca0fa0c5b4e4d0" id="OWAfd46718e-4bcd-a8ab-b35f-6afc24cbdbc0" style="border: 0px; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">2023 Annual Report</a>, PSE.com.ph P.79</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Jollibee 17-A <a class="OWAAutoLink" href="https://edge.pse.com.ph/openDiscViewer.do?edge_no=0b6e5d1a9d1a6fb09e4dc6f6c9b65995" id="OWA74d20595-b9f9-246f-3c7f-66ac52e4e53b" style="border: 0px; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">2022 Annual Report</a> PSE.com.ph </span><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">P.76</span></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in 0in 8pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Prudent Investor Newsletters, <a class="OWAAutoLink" href="https://prudentinvestornewsletters.blogspot.com/2019/03/jollibees-fantastic-paradigm-shift-from.html" id="OWA048dca0b-6723-a3f2-737d-fa4a7305823a" style="border: 0px; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Jollibee’s Fantastic Paradigm Shift: From Consumer Value to Aggressive Debt-Financed Pacman Strategy</a>, March 3, 2019</span></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">This content provided courtesy of <a href="http://prudentinvestornewsletters.blogspot.com/">Prudent Investor Newsletter</a></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7405358.post-66522342647291296172024-03-11T09:23:00.000+08:002024-03-11T09:23:55.786+08:00PSEi 30 6,950: Desperate Times Calls for Desperate ICT-SM Led SY Group Pump; The Quest for Better Absolute Returns<p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #000066; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b><i><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">The problem is not people being uneducated. The problem is that people are educated just enough to believe what they have been taught, and not educated enough to question anything from what they have been taught—@ProfFeynman</span></i></b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 10pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><strong style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><u style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-preserver-spaces="true" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="color: red; font-family: verdana;">PSEi 30 6,950: Desperate Times Calls for Desperate ICT-SM Led SY Group Pump; The Quest for Better Absolute Returns</span></span></u></strong></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">An organized four-company pump pulled the Philippine PSEi 30 back to 6,950</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Philippine PSEi 30 closed the week up .33% to nearly recover the 6,950 levels, which slipped from profit-taking during the early innings of the week.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Through seven weeks of consecutive advances, the headline index's YTD returns swelled to 7.63% (as of March 8th) and 16.44% from troughs of October 2023.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b>Understanding the foundations of the recent rally is imperative for comprehending the stock market cycle.</b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><i>1. Only a few issues have been responsible for most of the gains of the PSEi 30. </i></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZC4xlWWncJGYG571VFF5k4VEeyMOFLYp6czoihZ0KsEHa3bbw844jabliStNBtHS6TFnfloIE0GDDgyz05KQ7VAj5zN_kzn06IQKx5pv-dyLQK7RNwLNy2OeEx43xErc6DL8cDPf2u7PCo65l1bD_qz9R8N4vBMdffC7BJJ9J2TrT2HzDI98h/s678/PSE6950%20A%203.10.24.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><img border="0" data-original-height="678" data-original-width="561" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZC4xlWWncJGYG571VFF5k4VEeyMOFLYp6czoihZ0KsEHa3bbw844jabliStNBtHS6TFnfloIE0GDDgyz05KQ7VAj5zN_kzn06IQKx5pv-dyLQK7RNwLNy2OeEx43xErc6DL8cDPf2u7PCo65l1bD_qz9R8N4vBMdffC7BJJ9J2TrT2HzDI98h/w530-h640/PSE6950%20A%203.10.24.jpg" width="530" /></span></a></div><p></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Figure 1</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">For instance, ICT share prices have gone totally vertical! Its % share of its free float market cap has also gone parabolic! </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Up by an astounding 9.4% this week, ICT etched a new all-time high last Friday as it toppled BPI for the fourth spot as the largest PSEi 30 company! Its market cap share has gained 16%, while YTD returns delivered 25.5%! </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">However, <a class="OWAAutoLink" href="https://open.substack.com/pub/theseenandunseenbybjte/p/philippine-psei-30-icts-parabolic?" id="OWAa7745f3c-e39d-a846-a214-ca82a8930040" style="border: 0px; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">ICT's share prices have diverged from its 2023 financial performance</a>. </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Although ICT may have contributed by about 15-18% of the PSEi 30's YTD gains, it couldn't do it alone. </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">And so, a series of orchestrated and rotational price pumps have also incited an upside spiral of share prices of other market cap heavyweights—primarily financials.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">But since financials were on a weekly recess, recovering the PSEi 30 to its early March levels required help from other PSEi 30 mainstays. </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">And thus, the SM-led Sy group (the top 3 heavyweights) assisted.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgL0HdQOpBP4R7K6EiSVU6c1PUdole17VVJAqCpGreuKUTvgT9Op1cFW-WTL1vBRQ-_e6ngcxRe-Z6og5TTSZ-Jode9scFzEpA-DTu0Q6I0IVKwU6TRMkgvUtihe3SsQGr8bzrLTJZ1Tm_5n_kyR8ZqwqRZwsyAPXz5czSVh-W4ZN9COviGqqbT/s521/PSE6950%20B%203.10.24.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><img border="0" data-original-height="439" data-original-width="521" height="338" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgL0HdQOpBP4R7K6EiSVU6c1PUdole17VVJAqCpGreuKUTvgT9Op1cFW-WTL1vBRQ-_e6ngcxRe-Z6og5TTSZ-Jode9scFzEpA-DTu0Q6I0IVKwU6TRMkgvUtihe3SsQGr8bzrLTJZ1Tm_5n_kyR8ZqwqRZwsyAPXz5czSVh-W4ZN9COviGqqbT/w400-h338/PSE6950%20B%203.10.24.jpg" width="400" /></span></a></div><p></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Figure 2</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">It is no surprise that pre-closing (3) pumps and (2) dumps governed the outcome of the headline index. (charts from Technistock)</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><i>2. Market internals Diverge with the Headline Index</i></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">But the general market didn't seem to agree with the index managers.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgn6Rv4kccG5_I1jKcQb_u9WD_tdAHFOszAg1hJGwHKKd5SfAdQCl9Tds5SCiGP3a22ceiTDplygRtpeB7mNit69jecFFTFc0ZRHwds7fPUicU-vv83H8LWg7B_c5vnZapjqvZsO6veTn2d2CZ-_udE-M1z7qnMlgGr6OXvlX1ri1dsoVfQJJ2E/s525/PSE6950%20C%203.10.24.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><img border="0" data-original-height="497" data-original-width="525" height="606" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgn6Rv4kccG5_I1jKcQb_u9WD_tdAHFOszAg1hJGwHKKd5SfAdQCl9Tds5SCiGP3a22ceiTDplygRtpeB7mNit69jecFFTFc0ZRHwds7fPUicU-vv83H8LWg7B_c5vnZapjqvZsO6veTn2d2CZ-_udE-M1z7qnMlgGr6OXvlX1ri1dsoVfQJJ2E/w640-h606/PSE6950%20C%203.10.24.jpg" width="640" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: verdana; font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-weight: inherit;">Figure 3</span><p></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Decliners dominated the PSEi 30 breadth (19 down and two unchanged). (Figure 3, upper chart)</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The average change was a 1.19% deficit. It showed signs of exhaustion, but index managers wouldn't allow it.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The week's performance was a deviance from the overall market sentiment.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Decliners also prevailed over the broader market with a 507-414 in the former's favor. </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Though reportedly bolstered by an aggregate foreign buying of Php 1.73 billion, mainboard volume growth remained anemic, if not lethargic. </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Nonetheless, the easing of global financial conditions has intensified the leveraged speculative mania.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The <a class="OWAAutoLink" href="https://tradingeconomics.com/indonesia/stock-market" id="OWAfefa0842-ec79-8019-81a2-2acc0db93544" style="border: 0px; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Indonesian JKSE</a> reached an all-time high (ATH) this week to join the ranks of the five national benchmarks in Asia-Pacific, which set a new milestone in 2024. (Figure 3, lower image)</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwGxHX4_V-e3C2sNGsUCZveU0ueyZo8owFtN7KCqNVUQuaVyQ4HUap9aVd763Eh-K6vCPiaGyq_ZfrOU9gCAWVo7aR81vrkbuDm8NEkjpEYK2Nj9EMzZRWy_CU-aufH4o_6dsVgPAAUG8RegHtYYlcLfqeqMSlfxXaVrCAAj8Ivljj75L7OOpP/s674/PSE6950%20D%203.10.24.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><img border="0" data-original-height="674" data-original-width="535" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwGxHX4_V-e3C2sNGsUCZveU0ueyZo8owFtN7KCqNVUQuaVyQ4HUap9aVd763Eh-K6vCPiaGyq_ZfrOU9gCAWVo7aR81vrkbuDm8NEkjpEYK2Nj9EMzZRWy_CU-aufH4o_6dsVgPAAUG8RegHtYYlcLfqeqMSlfxXaVrCAAj8Ivljj75L7OOpP/w508-h640/PSE6950%20D%203.10.24.jpg" width="508" /></span></a></div><p></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Figure 4</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><i>3. Concentrated and Organized Pumps </i></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Circling back to the local market, mainboard volume remained outrageously remote from its predecessors (2021, 2022 and 2023). (Figure 4, topmost visuals)</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Yet, an elite crop of (top 10) brokers (mainly institutional) dominated or continued to control a substantial share of mainboard volume. (Figure 4, middle window)</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">The trading volume of the Sy Group accounted for 24% of the main board volume.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">The top 20 most active issues corralled 83% of the main board volume.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Evidence from <a class="OWAAutoLink" href="https://www.bsp.gov.ph/Statistics/Financial%20System%20Accounts/kbloans.aspx" id="OWA2259856b-3564-6edd-f5bf-92ff25e983f3" style="border: 0px; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">UC bank loans</a> exhibits that the lending growth to the financial industries appears to have resonated with the PSEi 30's performance. (Figure 4, lowest chart)</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Does this indicate intra-industry margin trade?</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><i>4. The Impact of Market Distortions</i></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b><i>This compilation of evidence suggests a "cartelized" market rather than an economically functional one. </i></b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><i>The degree of distortions could be symptomatic of massive skeletons in the closet in the balance sheets of mainstream companies. </i></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Think about the 4-year <a class="OWAAutoLink" href="https://business.inquirer.net/378236/pldt-uncovers-p-48-b-budget-overrun-revamps-management" id="OWA91c0321e-ce97-2b4a-5e7f-00cdeab00f17" style="border: 0px; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Php 48 billion "budget overrun" by one of the largest telco firms here</a>. </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">If the supervising authorities can't balance the order for the minority shareholders, the industry and the economy, <b>why should we suppose that markets are pricing capital effectively?</b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">If so, what are the repercussions of sustained and intensified distortions of capital market pricing and misallocations? A bull market? Or a bubble bust?</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b><i><br /></i></b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><i>5. Quest for Better Absolute Returns </i></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b><i><br /></i></b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b><i>Our goal as an independent analyst is to understand the genuine conditions of the marketplace so we can make prudent choices from the underlying risk conditions to generate better absolute returns.</i></b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><i>We could have a broader scope of market forensics</i>. </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Unfortunately, our access is limited to ungated (free) resources. We could broaden our perspective to see monthly foreign participants and brokers per issue. If available, the cumulative number of cross-trades and more. </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">We could also see the depth of participation and general market sentiment via the aggregate number of issues (and components) above or below their 50-day, 100-day, or 200-day moving averages, the periodic price highs and lows, and more.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">We certainly could use more data to expand our analytical horizons, which we can use in our assessment in the context of probabilities, behavioral finance, financial theories, and more. </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">But then again, we are limited in resources and workforce (single analyst, data encoder, and agent/trader).</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">However, unlike the mainstream, this free subscription site aims for objective, value-free analysis, unconstrained by the agency problem (conflict of interest). </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">We don't write to push for implicit sales goals or promote the interest of political or politically connected institutions</span><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; text-align: left;">—</span><span style="font-family: verdana;">which is why there have been NO takers of the PSE's short selling (yet). </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Neither do we rely on confirmation bias themes to get "likes." </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Writing helps this free market acolyte learn more and work to improve on portfolio management, which I have been sharing with you for years. </span><span style="font-family: verdana; font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-weight: inherit;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-weight: inherit;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Anyway, thank you very much for listening.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; margin: 0in 0in 8pt;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: verdana; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 11pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">This content provided courtesy of <a href="http://prudentinvestornewsletters.blogspot.com/">Prudent Investor Newsletter</a></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0