Stops and Options

Interpreting the System

noreply@blogger.com (Stops and Options) — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 14:56:00 PDT

As you all know by now, my market analysis comes primarily from the system described on the website that many of you have tried. The system seems to have the most consistency when time frames are combined rather than always following one time frame. For example, sell signals on a 60 nminute chart are more effective when the market is in a sell zone on a daily chart as well. I am going to try to communicate the status of some of the longer time frames in several markets to help filter some of the signals. I hope this is helpful for you.

In general, the S&P, NQ, Gold and Silver look positive and the Dollar and Treasury futures look negative. I realize that as I pick this up again some of these moves are fairly well established. Any of them can change at any time but this is where we are for now.

This morning, I think there is a chance to get short the bond future at 121'22 with a '24 tick stop and an initial open ended profit target. You could also consider buying puts from this level.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

System Update

noreply@blogger.com (Stops and Options) — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 09:04:00 PDT

Hello everyone. The system is up and running for many of you and I hope is offering some helpfuls signals.

Thank you to those that have given me feedback. It has been very valuable to make the system better and more user friendly. I am working on several things that should add to the systems value as a trading tool.

I am trying to create some tutorial videos as well as some ongoing market analysis from the system. These should be available soon. In the mean time, if you have any questions about the system, please contact me.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Wednesday

noreply@blogger.com (Stops and Options) — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 05:51:00 PDT

Good morning. The automation of my system is complete and available for those interested.

My Posts are based on the patterns and numbers given from this system. It will be more effective to communicate trading ideas through the system than through my Posts. I want to continue with the blog by adding different information/commentary that may be helpful with your trading rather than relaying what I see on an everchanging system.

Your input is always welcome.

Thank you.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Tuesday Morning Update

noreply@blogger.com (Stops and Options) — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 05:54:00 PDT

The S&P looks very similar to yesterday morning, down but probably a buy. Eventhough we went to 865.5 and now again back down to 840, I believe we can retest the 872 level again.

The dollar firmed up to 8600 but now looks very neutral. It is probably a fade 100 points either way from here.

I'm still slightly bearish for crude from 49.30. I think this weakness can continue into the mid to low 40's if it doesn't rebound today.

Gold sold off overnight and is now back under 890. Like the dollar, it looks neutral from here and I don't have a strong feel for it from these levels.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Monday Morning Update

noreply@blogger.com (Stops and Options) — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 05:58:00 PDT

The S&P's are going to open lower but still look positive from late last week's strength. For now I like the market under 851 for another test of the recent 872 highs.

The dollar has more room to rebound from Friday's selloff. I think it can trade up to 8585 at least.

Crude looks bearish to me and I think it's a sale at 49.30.

Finally, Gold looks like it will trade back under 900 for a short term trade. If if bounces back to 913 I think it would be a good risk/reward sale.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Market Update

noreply@blogger.com (Stops and Options) — Thu, 23 Apr 2009 06:41:00 PDT

After yesterday's trading it changed the picture somewhat on the markets I typically comment on. I'm somewhat bullish sp's from below 843 and bearish crude from above 49.50 for the day.

As for the dollar, it seems to have ran out of steam for now which probably has contributed to some support in gold. I'm neutral both.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Wednesday Morning Update

noreply@blogger.com (Stops and Options) — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 06:08:00 PDT

The S&P is in a daily neutral range but looks like an early day trade sale at 839. I'm also neutral gold at this point.

The dollar still looks bullish and may add to today's gains on a break above the overnight high of 8708. This is a chart pattern where I think you can buy the strength.

On the other hand, I'm bearish crude and think its a sale around 48.50

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

System

noreply@blogger.com (Stops and Options) — Tue, 21 Apr 2009 11:59:00 PDT

As many of you know, I've been working to automate my analysis into a 'system'. It is almost complete as we are just trying to make sure there are no missteps in it.

When completed it will be a big help for me to analyze more markets in more time frames. It is based on the buy and sell zones described on the www.stopsandoptions.com and can be modified to some degree with custom parameters.

It runs on Ninja Trader which allows you to test it on a simulated basis. If you have an interest in looking at it, please feel free to contact me.

I'll pick up the regular emails tomorrow. Thank you.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Monday Morning Update

noreply@blogger.com (Stops and Options) — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 06:19:00 PDT

The sp is going to open lower but near daily support in the upper 840's. The very early trade may be to sell mid to upper 850's but only for day trades. Later it may develop where this is a longer term buy.

The dollar is adding to Friday's advance and I still look for 87.60.

Crude is breaking down. If we get a bounce to 50.50 (June) it's a sale that could develop into a larger, longer term position.

Gold is up but not convincingly yet. I'd give it some time to see further strength but it most likely will be an opportunity to sell.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Friday Update

noreply@blogger.com (Stops and Options) — Fri, 17 Apr 2009 08:22:00 PDT

The sp has been much stronger than I thought it would be. I think it's in a short term range of 876 to 846 now. I've thought you could buy weakness and sell strength but the weakness has been very shallow and the strength has been impressive.

Today's strength in the dollar index may be the beginning of a bigger move, a possible break out. First objective would be to 87.60.

I'm less confident crude's move this morning has much behind it beyond today. 50.90 should be daytrading resistance.

Gold is somewhat making up for my mistakes in the sp. Without a recovery today, I would expect another 20 or 30 dollars on the downside.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Thursday Morning Update

noreply@blogger.com (Stops and Options) — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 05:38:00 PDT

The S&P is still a sale on the daily chart and an early sale at 855 on an intraday basis.

The dollar index and crude are dead neutral at current levels.

I have to stay bearish gold for now with a sell area above 894.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Crude Correction

noreply@blogger.com (Stops and Options) — Wed, 15 Apr 2009 07:40:00 PDT

My earlier post regarding crude was wrong. My buy level should've read 48.00, not 50.25. From an intraday perspective, I think it's a buy right around here at 48.80 and a sell at 50.50.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Market Update

noreply@blogger.com (Stops and Options) — Wed, 15 Apr 2009 05:47:00 PDT

The sp has lost the upward bias over the last day or so and I believe has entered into a range. I think it can be sold above 839 wth an objective to the low teens and possible back below 800.

The dollar index has been sideways for several days and is still a coin toss for the breakout. Play the range until its not a range. Sell 8680 and buy 8475.

Crude also has found a tight range around current levels. I think its a sale above 52.25 and a buy below 50.25.

Gold still looks mildly bearish. From a week to week perspective I don't think its a good short down here and is probably a good buy if we get to 850, but the daily charts just haven't shown any bullish signals for some time. From that shorter term perspective, its a sale still from the mid 890's.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Morning Update

noreply@blogger.com (Stops and Options) — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 05:48:00 PDT

This morning the S&P is 20 higher. This is much too strong to fade early in my view, perhaps later in the day but not in the first several hours. I will look for short term levels to buy.

No change in the dollar. I have no bias either way.

I see crude in a range from 52.80 to 47.40. It continues to look very similar to the sp. I think you can buy an early pull back to 51 (currently around 51.50) and look for a move to 52.80.

Gold is weaker again after moving briefly into the low 890's yesterday. There is potential for a bigger move down and I think you can still sell strenght in gold.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Wednesday

noreply@blogger.com (Stops and Options) — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 05:19:00 PDT

The sp's are in a range in my view. I think short term, the next few hours, you can sell 821 and look to buy 807's within the larger range of 830 to 765. The sp's made a low of 802.25 overnight which may be all we get on the downside for awhile.

The dollar too is in a range and topped out last night at 86.13. I am very neutral the dollar index between 8540 and 8580.

Crude continues weak for now but bottomed out overnight right near what I thought was the bottom of a broder range noted yesterday at 47.37. It's probably good for another short term sale at 49 to retest the overnight lows.

Gold continues to look a little bearish near term and is a sale if we retest the overnight high into the 890's.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Option Web Seminar

noreply@blogger.com (Stops and Options) — Tue, 07 Apr 2009 08:34:00 PDT

You are all invited to join this afternoon's option web seminar I'm doing. It's Part 2 of what will be 3 covering options. Today we'll dig into some strategies. The link below takes you to a sign up page. Hope you can make it.

http://www.pfgbest.com/webinar/eventSummary.asp?skey=333613352

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Tuesday Markets

noreply@blogger.com (Stops and Options) — Tue, 07 Apr 2009 06:49:00 PDT

The S&P is lower again this morning. I don't think you should be long and would use a move above 818 to get out. I think it may trade in a general range from 840 down to 750 in the days/weeks ahead.

The dollar index has made a nice move from yesterday overnight lows but may have limted upside above 8580 from a daily perspective. Intraday looks strong for now but would look to exit longs at some point later today above 8580.

Gold is very mixed depending on the time frame you viewing. For intraday purposes I think its a sale at 888.

Crude has had a lot of correlation with the sp of late. Crude looks to be entering a broader range of 47.50 to 54. Intraday, I think you can sell the next bounce to 50.20.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Monday Update

noreply@blogger.com (Stops and Options) — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 05:46:00 PDT

Stocks are going to open lower and SP's are probably a sale above 840 if we can get back there; right now we're 831. I think it can trade back to 800.

The dollar index is weaker again from Friday but I still feel it may be a buy. I like the dollar under 84.40.

Crude is lower and showing mixed signals in the low 51 area. 51-51.25 should be support with 52.50 being resistance.

Gold continues to trade weak. It's an early sale above 886 for a day trade.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Market Update

noreply@blogger.com (Stops and Options) — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 06:49:00 PDT

I'm off to a somewhat late start this morning but it gives me an opportunity to look at the markets with all the employment data absorbed.

The S&P is lower after an inital, brief, rally took us to new highs of 844.50. The move off the lows the last month or so seems to be losing momentum and we could be starting a move back to below 790.

The dollar looks better today and I think it is a buy under 84.90.

Crude needs to continue to rally or it may be developing a range. I think it can be bought on a correction to around 51.10. The earlier the better for this and if it ends the day there I will turn more negative crude.

Gold is generally a little negative but I don't have strong conviction on it. I think it's a sale if it moves to 920 and possibly a buy around 903 with a tight stop near 896 for a short term trade.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Thursday Morning Update

noreply@blogger.com (Stops and Options) — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 05:58:00 PDT

Stocks are going to open higher after a fairly impressive day yesterday. I would think you can but early weakness under 815 for day trade purposes. The daily chart may turn more positive with a close up over 820 today but that is awhile off. Also, tomorrow morning's unemployment report is a wild card for more intermediate term direction. I do think, however, that the market can trade up into the mid to upper 800's for this move.

The dollar has broken down somewhat overnight. I don't have a strong view on the dollar for now but for the short term (day trading) it can probably be sold first time back up to 85.30 (currently trading at 84.97).

Crude firmed up over night and I see it is making new highs as I write this. If it retraces to 50.25, I think it is a buy.

Gold has softened overnight and hasn't of yet been supported by the weaker dollar. Again we have short term bearish dollar and gold charts which are unlikely to decline together for too long. Recently we had the both daily charts negative right before gold ran up from 885 to 960 while the dollar collapsed from 87.50 to 83. I can see a scenario where they both rally but less likely that they both fall. If I had to choose one to fall, I would have to pick the dollar.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Wednesday Update

noreply@blogger.com (Stops and Options) — Wed, 01 Apr 2009 05:44:00 PDT

Stocks and the dollar look very neutral or range bound at this point. The sp is going to open weaker and I would look for support in the low 770's early. The dollar has developed a range generally between 85.50 and 86.50. I am neutral the dollar within that range.

Gold is showing some early strenth and challenging the low 930's which has been recent resistance. I am not convinced it can make any meaningful break above this area.

Crude has been trading weak the last couple of days in what I think is an area of support under 49.50. The intra day charts just haven't shown any strength to trade against. More patience is probably in order.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Option Course Webinar

noreply@blogger.com (Stops and Options) — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 09:57:00 PDT

For those of you interested in options, I will be doing an Option Webinar this afternoon at 3:30 Central time. To participate you can just click on the link below. It will be archived for those who would like to see it but can't make today's time. Thank you.

To join the event as an attendee
-------------------------------------------------------
1. Go to https://pfgbest.webex.com/pfgbest/onstage/g.php?d=333410049&t=a&EA=tslater%40stopsandoptions.com&ET=186fdb5d50aa65aef2234f13932d9b8f&ETR=b000d59a9e4325003481ba0df8c4095a
2. Click "Join Now".

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Tuesday Morning Update

noreply@blogger.com (Stops and Options) — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 06:03:00 PDT

Yesterday's trade hurt the modestly bullish picture for stocks, the dollar and crude. They are all more neutral now and I would expect more two way trade. I think there is resistance in the sp in the upper 790's and support in the low 780's. For the dollar, 86.20 to 85.30, and 51 to 49.30 in crude.

Gold looks similar to yesterday in that I think it's a little bearish with resistance above 930 (yesterday I mistakenly wrote 830 instead).

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Monday Morning Update

noreply@blogger.com (Stops and Options) — Mon, 30 Mar 2009 06:13:00 PDT

Stocks are going to open lower and, at least for the early going, I think there may be more weakness from the upper 790's. However, this pullback from the last weeks rally is an opportunity to consider some longer term bullish positions. So I would be patient to give the weakness some room and perhaps trade it short early, but if the intraday charts start to stabilize it could be a nice longer term (days) buy.

A similar scenario has developed with crude and the reverse scenario is present with the dollar index.

Gold looks bearish today and I think its a sale in the low 830's.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Friday Update

noreply@blogger.com (Stops and Options) — Fri, 27 Mar 2009 06:42:00 PDT

From the daily charts, this morning's moves in many markets look like fades. Stocks are down but I think its too early to call for an end of the recent rally; bonds and notes are higher but I think their recent runs are running out of gas; and gold and crude are somewhat range bound so I think this morning's weakness in both is limited.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results