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Sentiment Index - Malaysia Stock Market

2012-02-03T17:31:00.000+08:00

Constructed and Written by Smartbiz

Local sentiment expectedly turned weaker prior to a long holiday. The Oscillator started in deep red but gradually picked up to end at its day-high at +393.24; gained 1,240.50 when compares with its opening point. The Average recorded a loss of 529.40.

In MSCD, %K (Yellow) computed as +224.45 (-137.02), %D (Red) +129.90 (-52.76) and the Histogram +79.60 (+3.74).

Technical Analysis
After today’s trade, both indicators hooked down but the Histogram continued to print another longer bar in the positive area. Market sentiment took a breather but support remained strong as volume hiked to near 3 billion shares.

In MSCD, %K is still staying above its uptrend channel, the whole scenario depicts with optimism, meantime.

(Note: Explanation for Intra-Day MSO and MSCD are archived under "Labels" at the lower portion of the sidebar.)

Intraday Oscillators Comparison

2012-02-03T17:16:00.000+08:00

Zelan appoints JV firm contractor (Star)

2012-02-03T15:59:00.001+08:00

Zelan Bhd had issued a letter of intent to its 51% owned joint venture (JV) Zelan-Kiara Teratai JV to appoint the latter as the contractor for the proposed development of the Integrated Immigration, Custom, Quarantine and Security Complex at Bukit Kayu Hitam, Kedah.

The rest of the shares are owned by Zelan’s JV partner Kiara Teratai Sdn Bhd, while Zelan’s wholly owned subsidiary Zelan Construction Sdn Bhd has a 51% stake in the JV, Zelan told Bursa Malaysia.

Gold, oil prices to rise this year (BT)

2012-02-03T15:57:00.002+08:00

Gold and oil prices are set to rise this year on positive sentiment for both commodities amid global economic slowdown,said Standard Chartered Bank.

Its consumer banking group wealth management chief investment strategist,Steve Brice, said the gold prices were expected to touch an average of US1,975 per ounce in the fourth quarter driven by four factors.

"They are high debt level in the West; negative real interest rate; high demand from China and India as well as central banks; and, limited supply for the precious metal," he said in a media briefing here today.

He said continuous uncertainty in global economy had boosted interest in gold as an hedging alternative against riskier investment.

He said the oil price was expected to rise to US100 per barrel in the second half of this year driven by the geopolitical risks in the Middle East and strong demand from emerging market, especially China.

"We didn't expect any significant decline in oil prices this year" he said. On equities, he said, the bank was putting a 'neutral' call on Malaysia's equity market.

Brice said the country's equity market had posted a strong performance last year on a relative basis.

However, he said, the equity prices had gone up since then and were more expensive now.

"We are not bearish on Malaysian equity market but we think that some regional markets are better pick," he said.

Read more: Gold, oil prices to rise this year http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/20120203143909/Article/#ixzz1lIsMP77u

Oil & Gas - An absolute cracker (CIMB)

2012-02-03T11:58:00.002+08:00

Our oil & gas portfolio ended 2011 all fired up, having outperformed the KLCI by 22%. It is in for another blazing year given Petronas’s record capex and various exploration initiatives such as enhanced oil recovery and marginal field developments. The sector remains an Overweight. Also intact are all our stock recommendations, earnings forecasts and target prices. Our top picks are Petronas Dagangan for the big caps and Perisai for the small caps.

Muhibbah Engineering – Reversal of fortune. (CIMB)

2012-02-03T11:16:00.000+08:00

The APH saga has taken a positive twist as a CIMB Bank-led restructuring is reportedly in the works. If successful, it would bring in the additional funds needed to complete the project. For Muhibbah, it would mean no provisions and possibly, additional APH works. We raise EPS and RNAV for a recent project award. Our target price goes up from RM1.24 to RM1.63 as we narrow our RNAV discount from 50% to 40%. We upgrade from Hold to Trading Buy given the possibility of a favourable outcome for APH in the next 1-2 months.

TIMECOM - The Time is Nigh (OSK)

2012-02-03T10:14:00.000+08:00

With Time dotCom (TDC) expected to announce its 4QFY11 results on 16 Feb, we are anticipating higher income from wholesale and corporate segments to bring its 4QFY11 revenue to RM93.3m. We are also revising our dividend income forecast from its holding in DiGi to RM47.3m, nudging up core profit (ex-tax) to RM96.8m. Following the upgrade of DiGi’s FV to RM4.00, TDC’s SOP valuation increases to RM0.79. Stripping out the market value of its DiGi stake, the street is only valuing the stock at less than 10x FY12 PER (domestic telcos trade at an average of 18x FY12 PER). Our FV of RM0.79 implies a potential upside of 14.5% from the current price.

Multiple proposals on track. On 19 Jan, TDC submitted its application to the High
Court of Malaya to carry out the capital repayment of RM0.02/share and proceed with the capital restructuring exercise. Three months ago, it also managed to secure two term loan facilities to refinance AIMS Group’s existing borrowings of RM22.5m and finance the purchase of five companies belonging to its CEO Afzal Abdul Rahim at RM88m. Management indicated that the multiple corporate proposals are scheduled to be completed sometime this month (please refer to our earlier report dated 5 Jan, The Dots Come Together).

Sentiment Index - Malaysia Stock Market

2012-02-02T17:26:00.001+08:00

Constructed and Written by Smartbiz

Local sentiment followed regional markets opened in high notes as confident towards the progress of the eurozone debt crisis increased. Though optimism pared by profit taking but selling was well absorbed. The Oscillator slid but ended off low at +2,054.17; lost 322.19 when compares with its opening point. The Average recorded a gain of 1,678.46.

In MSCD, %K (Yellow) computed as +361.46 (+239.37), %D (Red) +182.68 (+119.71) and the Histogram +75.84 (+25.74).

Technical Analysis
After today’s trade, both indicators were shooting stars and the Histogram printed yet another longer bar in the positive area. Market sentiment took a clue from global situation staged a most ever strong sentiment since two months ago.

In MSCD, both %K and %D moved almost parallel towards the same direction but the gap has become narrower. It is opined that tomorrow would be a selling day due to a long holiday ahead. However, market euphoria will continue until %K fell and cut %D from its high.

(Note: Explanation for Intra-Day MSO and MSCD are archived under "Labels" at the lower portion of the sidebar.)

Intraday Oscillators Comparison

2012-02-02T17:11:00.000+08:00

Penny Stocks (OSK)

2012-02-02T11:02:00.000+08:00

Tiger: Higher lows. The stock is on a long-term downtrend since peaking in late 2007. Selling momentum has eased as the trend progressed and the higher lows since the low of Oct 2011 may lead to a change in trend. The buying spike in late 2011 also suggests an accumulation process may be ongoing. The change in trend is not confirmed, as it requires a close above RM0.14, the highest close for November. Thus, a position can be initiated when this happens with a stop loss on close below RM0.10, the low of Dec 2011. A more aggressive trade may choose to enter into a speculative position now, especially with the 4-week high close last Monday, in anticipation of a change in trend. The price target is the psychological RM0.20, just above the high of 2011 and a strong move could even see a test of the 2010-high of RM0.27. Should the stop loss be triggered, the stock is likely to continue its downtrend or at best move sideways.

Compugates: Strong interest. The stock has been on a sideway-consolidation trend since bottoming in mid-2009. It traded between RM0.06-RM0.075 for most part of the period. However, the high interest in the stock since late last year suggests accumulation, which may subsequently lead to a change in trend. In fact, the stock has responded well and now is trading at a 3-year high, with the recent peak higher than the high of late 2011. Therefore, it is expected to trade higher and positions can be initiated above the stop-loss level of RM0.06. A strong move may even see it avoid a close below last week’s low of RM0.08, which also can be employed as an aggressive stop. The obvious resistance is the psychological
RM0.10, which is not too far away but a violation could see it test the 5-year high of RM0.18.

FBMKLCI - Another Quick Recovery (ext.OSK)

2012-02-02T10:15:00.000+08:00

Another sell-off occurred early this week but the decline was again quickly reversed. Still, a break above the 1,524 and 1530-pt resistance levels is required to confirm the return of buying.

The sideways move of the past four weeks has also eased the early-year daily RSI overbought conditions. Thus, the index is primed for a new up leg, as long as it stays above 1,510 pts. It has also stayed above the 200-day MAV line more than a month now. The resistance at 1,530–1,545 pts – the gap of 5 Aug – looms if the 1524.10-pt resistance level is broken. Should the index fail to progress at any of these levels, support is expected at the 1,510-pt level and a stronger one at the psychological 1,500-pt level, just below the 200-day MAV line. A close below should see the index trading lower and confirm the negative bias of 4 Jan. The next support is at 1,480 pts, a Fibonacci retracement level of the late-December rally. A close below the 1,450-pt level is likely to signal the end of the rebound since the September-low. Note that a breakout, either way, could see a sustained move as the Bollinger Band has contracted significantly.

Wall Street extends rally into February (ext)

2012-02-02T06:49:00.000+08:00

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks rose Wednesday, but closed off the highs of the day, on a combination of improved economic data and easing concerns about Europe's debt crisis.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) rose 83 points, or 0.6%, to end at 12,716. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained 12 points, or 0.9%, to 1,324. The Nasdaq rose 34 points, or 1.2%, to 2,848.

Wednesday's advance extends last month's strong gains. It was the best January for the S&P and Dow since 1997 and since 2001 for the Nasdaq.

Traders said bank stocks were supported by expectations that a highly anticipated IPO filing by Facebook could signal a rebound in capital markets activity.

Meanwhile, the technology sector was supported by strong quarterly results from chipmaker Broadcom and data storage company Seagate.
A key index of U.S. manufacturing activity came in slightly below expectations, but still signaled expansion in the sector. Earlier reports showed manufacturing activity picked up in China, Germany, France and the United Kingdom.

"Reports out of China and the U.S. today are clearly more positive," said Art Hogan, managing director at Lazard Capital Markets. "The economic data today is one of the biggest drivers."

Meanwhile, investors welcomed signs that talks in Greece are progressing on a second bailout and a write down of the nation's private-sector debt load. In the bond market, yields on Portuguese government bonds eased after the nation drew strong demand for an auction of short-term bills.

"As long as Europe doesn't implode, it seems like the market wants to go higher," said David Rovelli, managing director of U.S. equity trading at Canaccord Adams.

The dollar fell against the euro, the Japanese yen and the British pound.

Oil for March delivery fell 87 cents to end at $97.61 a barrel.

Gold futures for April delivery rose $9.10 to close at $1,749.50 an ounce.

S&P, Dow wrap up best January in 21st century (ext)

2012-02-01T09:10:00.000+08:00

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- January offered up an apology to discouraged investors.

U.S. stocks traded in a narrow range Tuesday, after worse-than-expected U.S. housing and manufacturing data tempered the modest enthusiasm over Europe's progress on a new fiscal pact.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) slid 21 points, or 0.2%.The S&P 500 (SPX) shed 0.6 points, or 0.1%. The Nasdaq added 2 points, or or 0.1%.

Stocks got an early boost after European Union leaders agreed Monday to strengthen a financial firewall and most members of the 27-nation group will sign a new fiscal compact. But the first summit of the year ended without new solutions for the debt crisis in Greece.

"There's positive news coming out of Europe, but it's still very tenuous with Greece," said Jeffrey Phillips, chief investment officer of Rehmann Financial. "Every time we see something positive there, we seem to see it reverse in four or five days."

The dollar fell against the euro and the British pound, but gained versus the Japanese yen.

Oil for March delivery dropped 37 cents to $98.39 a barrel.

Gold futures for April delivery rose $7.40 to $1,740.40 an ounce.

Sentiment Index - Malaysia Stock Market

2012-01-31T17:23:00.000+08:00

Constructed and Written by Smartbiz

Local sentiment subsided in quiet trading before yet another market holiday. The Oscillator slid all the way down to end off low at +87.40; lost 310.13 when compares with its opening point. The Average recorded a loss of 249.54.

In MSCD, %K (Yellow) computed as +122.09 (-67.55), %D (Red) +62.98 (-25.01) and the Histogram +50.09 (+2.26).

Technical Analysis
After today’s trade, both indicators fell but %K rested exactly on the resistance turned support. The Histogram printed yet another longer bar in the positive area. Market sentiment took a rest as investor refused to take position following a market holiday.

Overall picture in MSCD remains intact. The slight setback is just normal cautiousness taken by investor before a holiday. So long as both indicators stay in the positive area, positive sentiment will prevail.

(Note: Explanation for Intra-Day MSO and MSCD are archived under "Labels" at the lower portion of the sidebar.)

Intraday Oscillators Comparison

2012-01-31T17:22:00.000+08:00

KIMLUN - Raising Capital for Expansion (OSK)

2012-01-31T10:35:00.002+08:00

KimLun is proposing to raise additional equity capital via a private placement of 22.9m new shares (10% of its existing share capital) at an indicative issue price of RM1.22 each, which will raise an estimated RM27.9m. The company proposes to utilize the proceeds as follows.

FV to be diluted to RM1.95. Our existing FV of RM2.15 is based on 10x FY12 earnings.
The proposed placement will enlarge KimLun’s share capital from 229m to 251.9m. With no changes in our valuation parameter, our FV would accordingly be reduced to RM1.95 in line with the EPS dilution. Since there is still some 26% price upside post placement, we maintain our BUY rating.

Priva - Trying to Extend Uptrend (OSK)

2012-01-31T10:27:00.000+08:00

Yesterday, Privasia attempted to push itself out of the recent RM0.08-RM0.10 consolidation range. The stock had been stuck within this zone after recording strong gains on 6 Dec 2011. Yesterday, it finally broke above the RM0.10 level, although marginally, closing at RM0.115. Traders may consider accumulating the shares at above the RM0.10 level and bet on follow-through buying. This is because the stock has set a new floor at the RM0.05 level and also established a new uptrend. We are eyeing the RM0.12 and RM0.14 levels as the upside targets while the cut-loss point is pegged at below the RM0.10 level.

US Stocks trim losses, but end in red on Greek woes (ext)

2012-01-31T06:21:00.000+08:00

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks recovered most of their lost ground Monday afternoon but struggled to pull out of the red as concerns over Greece continued to weigh on the market.

Stocks started the day down about 1% after the weekend came and went without Greek leaders reaching an agreement on a debt-relief deal. But as the trading session wore on, the major indexes trimmed most of those losses.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) finished 7 points lower, or 0.1%. Earlier, the blue chip index had declined 131 points. The S&P 500 (SPX) lost 3 points, or 0.3%, and the Nasdaq (COMP) slumped 5 points, or 0.2%.

Stocks pared their losses as investors hope that European Union leaders, gathered in Brussels for their first summit of the year, will announce good news following their meeting.

Prior to any formal statements, Swedish prime minister Fredrik Reinfeldt told CNN that 25 of 27 European Union members have signed on to a fiscal compact aimed at strengthening budgetary discipline and deepening political ties to avoid a repeat European debt crisis. He noted that the Czech Republic cannot sign on yet (due to political obstacles), and U.K. Prime Minster David Cameron has already refused.
Investors are also looking for leaders to back a treaty to speed up implementation of the European Stability Mechanism, a move designed to strengthen the region's financial firewall.

Despite hopes for progress in Europe, investors remained concerned about the lack of an agreement in Greece. Greek officials finished the weekend without a deal with private-sector creditors. Without such a deal, the country jeopardizes its access to bailout funds and might not be able to make a €14 billion debt payment that's due March 20.

"As long as there is an unresolved issue as its relates to Greece and Europe overall in the background, investors can't move too far forward," said Dave Hinnenkamp, CEO of KDV Wealth Management. "The market has been focusing on the domestic news, but the impact of that is starting to fade and the background is shining through again."

The difficult debt negotiations in Greece have revived concerns about a default, and investors are also growing worried about Portugal, where borrowing costs continue to soar.

The dollar rose against the euro and the British pound but fell versus the Japanese yen. Oil for March delivery slipped 78 cents to settle at $98.78 a barrel. Gold futures for April delivery fell $1.00 to settle at $1,734.40 an ounce.

Sentiment Index - Malaysia Stock Market

2012-01-30T17:26:00.000+08:00

Constructed and Written by Smartbiz

Local sentiment lost steam from strong opening amidst regional weaknesses, today. The Oscillator was seen swaying downwards to end off low at +370.47; lost 891.17 when compares with its opening point. The Average recorded a gain of 526.94.

In MSCD, %K (Yellow) computed as +189.64 (+61.31), %D (Red) +88.01 (+35.13) and the Histogram +47.81 (+13.45).

Technical Analysis
After today’s trade, both indicators hooked upwards and the Histogram printed yet another longer bar in the positive area. Market shrugged off weakness exhibited by the key index but gained support from rotational play of low-liner.

In MSCD, %K has successfully broken through its overhead resistance and exposed to its highest high for three months. Until then, any profit taking will still be absorbed as evident by the increasing volume.

(Note: Explanation for Intra-Day MSO and MSCD are archived under "Labels" at the lower portion of the sidebar.)

Intraday Oscillators Comparison

2012-01-30T17:09:00.002+08:00

GAMUDA - Growing From Strength-to-Strength (OSK)

2012-01-30T10:11:00.002+08:00

We recently hosted Gamuda at the OSK-DMG ASEAN Corporate Day. Its recent strong margins appear to be sustainable on the steel prices locked in and more aggressive profit recognition for the EDT. We remain confident of Gamuda’s chances of bagging the MRT tunnelling works given its 7.5% pricing advantage and tunnelling track record. It is also in the running for the Gemas-JB EDT job that could be awarded by mid-year. We are positive on Gamuda potentially posting another record year for earnings and significantly replenishing its orderbook. Maintain BUY, with a higher FV of RM4.46.

Palette’s daily chart (OSK)

2012-01-30T09:24:00.000+08:00

Palette’s share price may climb further after last Friday’s firm close. The stock is actually on a longer term uptrend. It bottomed in mid-2010 and has been making higher lows since. The stock spent the whole of last year consolidating the gains of late 2010, but a new leg of the rally may have started after the firm close last Friday, the highest close in almost 2 months. The move looks credible as it was accompanied by a significant volume increase, which indicates strong buying interest. As such, a position can be taken now, or if possible, on a pullback towards the stop-loss of RM0.06. The price target is RM0.14, a measured move based on the year-long sideways consolidation range, provided that the psychological RM0.10 level, where a false breakout occurred in Nov 2011, is convincingly violated. A trade may not work out should the stop be triggered and a violation of the 10-month support level may put the 2-year uptrend in jeopardy.

Sentiment Index - Malaysia Stock Market

2012-01-28T12:58:00.001+08:00

Constructed and Written by Smartbiz

Local sentiment followed its peers progressed in uncertainty in the morning session, Friday. But, selling was swiftly absorbed by investors as volume jumped to over two billion shares at the close. After the break, the Oscillator zigzagged upwards to end at its day-high at +451.98; gained 166.20 when compares with its opening point. The Average recorded a gain of 165.75.

In MSCD, %K (Yellow) computed as +128.33 (+6.80), %D (Red) +52.91 (+9.03) and the Histogram +34.32 (+10.28).

Technical Analysis
After today’s trade, both indicators were flat. The Histogram printed yet another longer bar in the positive area.

Market sentiment remained plausible though weakening by profit taking. However, the failure of %K to break through its resistance is a concern given a significant increase in volume today.

Based on MSCD, investor confidence was gradually being built after recent short consolidation. Confidence will be uplifted by rotational play on laggards albeit continuous profit taking on gainers.

(Note: Explanation for Intra-Day MSO and MSCD are archived under "Labels" at the lower portion of the sidebar.)

Dow breaks 3-week winning streak (ext)

2012-01-28T12:42:00.000+08:00

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks ended mostly lower Friday as jittery investors digested a weaker-than-expected economic growth report and as Europe's debt crisis still loomed in the background.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) dropped 74 points, or 0.6%, the S&P 500 (SPX) slipped 2 points, or 0.2%. The Nasdaq (COMP) managed to gain ground, adding 11 points, or 0.4%.

Friday's slump came as investors reacted to the government's first reading on fourth-quarter gross domestic product. The United States economy picked up speed at the end of 2011, growing at an annual rate of 2.8%, as consumers increased their spending. But the data fell short of the 3.2% forecast, based on a consensus of economists surveyed by Briefing.com.

While the worse-than-expected figure is disheartening, "the real disappointment is in the details" of the report, said Mark Chandler, global head of currency at Brown Brothers Harriman. Inventories rose during the quarter, accounting for a large part of the growth, but consumption growth, a measure of demand, was weak.

Investors had been hoping for news that would back up growing optimism about the nation's economic recovery. Instead, the news seemed to jive with the Federal Reserve's lower outlook for the economy.

Anxiety also continues to loom over Greece's ongoing negotiations with private-sector creditors in an attempt to reduce its debt burden. Without an agreement, the country jeopardizes its access to bailout funds and might not be able to make a €14 billion debt payment that's due March 20.

The dollar fell against the euro, the British pound and the Japanese yen. Oil for March delivery edged down 14 cents to settle at $99.56 a barrel. Gold futures for February delivery rose $5.50 to $1,732.20 an ounce.

Intraday Oscillators Comparison

2012-01-27T17:16:00.000+08:00