Sense & Cents

MyEG - Expected the best in 4Q (CIMB)

2013-05-23T11:34:00.003+08:00

Prestariang - Commendable Start In 1QFY13 (OSK)

2013-05-23T09:19:00.001+08:00

Within expectations. PRES recorded 1QFY13 revenue of MYR26.2m (-3.2% y-o-y; +8.1% q-o-q), which we attribute to higher contributions from its ICT training and certification division. On a sequential basis, PBT was 9.6% lower at MYR9.0m owing to higher operating expenses incurred during the quarter. Overall, the company’s 1QFY13 core earnings of MYR9.0m (+12.2% y-o-y; -13.2% q-o-q) was within our estimate, making up 19.4% of our annualised forecast.

Attractive dividend payout. The company declared a first interim DPS of 2.5 sen, which translates into a payout ratio of 61.1% for the quarter under review. We continue to expect PRES to pay out a DPS of 11.0 sen and 12.0 sen for FY13 and FY14 respectively. These will translate into appealing yields of 6% to 7% over the next two years.

More opportunities in O&G training. PRES recently secured a MYR2m contract from GEMS Malaysia SB to provide ICT training for O&G industry and certification for 250 university graduates for a period of 18 months. We understand that Management is still in talks with a number of O&G companies to offer Autodesk and other certification programmes. With Malaysia’s general elections concluded, we continue to see potential growth for the company in this lucrative industry.

Maintain BUY. Overall, we remain positive on the company’s prospects in ICT training for O&G industry and make no changes to our assumptions for now. We maintain our BUY call, with our FV now at MYR2.36, as we roll over our valuations to FY14, pegged to an unchanged 10x P/E.

Bukit Jalil project to lift Ho Hup (Edge)

2013-05-20T10:38:00.001+08:00

Tambun Indah is RHB Research's 'top small cap pick' (BT)

2013-05-14T12:28:00.000+08:00

RHB Research has initiated coverage on Tambun Indah Land Bhd with a "buy" rating and fair value of RM1.28 while recognising the stock as its "top small cap pick".

In a note on Thursday, RHB Research said Tambun Indah had garnered significant investor interest since its first issued non-rated note in October last year.

"Tambun Indah's Pearl City township is just 15 minutes away from the Penang Second Bridge. This is a growing township as it is just 50 per cent developed, with a remaining land bank of 242.81ha," it added.

RHB Research said despite the 57 per cent share price appreciation since its first report in October last year, it believes the growth prospect of Tambun Indah's 242.81ha anchor landbank in Simpang Empat has yet to be fully priced in.

"The upcoming opening of the Penang Second Bridge will also provide significant economic impact in the Batu Kawan area and visibility on the mainland property market," it added.

The research house expects Tambun Indah to record an earnings growth of at least 20 per cent per annum over the next two years, as sales at Pearl City would accelerate to meet its forecast of RM450 million this year, compared with the RM400 million achieved last year. Bernama

Scomi order book exceeds RM5b (BT)

2013-05-14T12:18:00.003+08:00

Scomi Group Bhd's current order book has surpassed RM5 billion with the latest contract worth RM98.5 million in Turkmenistan.

Just two months ago, its member company Scomi KMC Sdn Bhd won a RM2.1 billion job from Petronas Carigali to supply drilling fluids, barite materials, equipment and services for five years.

Scomi Group - which recently underwent a restructuring that saw the disposal of its stakes in Scomi Oilfields Ltd, Scomi Sosma Sdn Bhd and Scomi KMC to its 65.65 per cent owned listed arm, Scomi Marine Bhd - has been actively bidding for new jobs worth over US$1 billion (RM3 billion) in Malaysia and internationally.

For the contract in Turkmenistan, Scomi Group's oilfield services business won a two-year contract from Dragon Oil (Turkmenistan) Ltd to provide drilling and completion fluids services.

The contract started from January this year, Scomi said in a statement yesterday.

Will Silver Bird fly again? (Star)

2013-04-29T16:05:00.002+08:00

SHAH ALAM: Despite its financial troubles, Silver Bird Group Bhd expects to break even operationally in about six months, said chairman Datuk Dr Gan Khuan Poh.

“Our first priority is to break even so we can cover our costs, which would allow us to be a going concern,” he told the press after the company's AGM last Friday, its second since financial irregularities worth millions of ringgit were discovered in its books last year.

“First we did the firefighting. Now we've put the fire out.”

Gan added that Malaysia's No. 2 bread and confectionary maker by market share was in the midst of creating a new line of bread products to be unveiled soon, and is even looking at expanding in Singapore, a market he said had not been managed well previously.

“We think it can be profitable. But we are tight on funds. We have no bank facilities. They have all been frozen. Once the restructuring is done, we will have the cash to expand.”

The Singapore operations made some RM22.26mil in revenue last year, up 5% over 2011. Silver Bird's domestic business remains its core market, raking in RM107.57mil in turnover for the year ended Oct 31, 2012.

According to its recently released annual report, the firm stated that it had conducted a reassessment of its operations, following which cost cutting measures have been taken, and wastages identified and mitigated.

“Conservation of cash has been given priority with the aim of heading towards operational cash breakeven as the group is without bank financing while the regularisation proposal is pending Bursa Malaysia's approval.

“During the year, the group has reorganised the sales team, re-examined sales routes and outlets to streamline and improve the sales and cost efficiency as well as cut wastages.

“Several new consumer food products have also been developed and are set to be launched as soon as funds are available,” Gan said in the chairman's statement.

The loss-making baked goods manufacturer has been mired in controversy after it failed to deliver its annual audited accounts for 2011 due to concerns raised by its then auditor, leading to the dismissal of its founder and managing director, an executive director and general manager, as well as RM125mil in legal suits against multiple parties.

A forensic review of its accounts was also carried out, which found, among other things, evidence of destroyed documents in some 15 bags, as well as deleted files and physical damage to the computer hard drive.

Gan and four other directors subsequently took over the reigns from former boss Datuk Jackson Tan.

When queried by shareholders about the sustainability of the business, Gan expressed confidence that Silver Bird would pull through.

“We have survived for the past 15 months. The market is there. We just have to go through a restructuring,” he explained.

He added that a study had been conducted to ascertain that the business, which generates between RM150,000 and RM200,000 in cash daily, is still viable, and a turnaround possible.

While there was talk of a white knight for the firm, Gan brushed this aside, saying such parties were usually keen on fire sales.

Silver Bird, which has been without a head since Tan's departure, is still on the lookout for a managing director, although Gan said prospective candidates were asking for the sky.

“Turnaround experts can come here asking for a lot of money, but who's to say they can deliver? People tell me I don't have bakery experience, and they are right.

“We must rely on our staff and empower them. We actually hired someone to manage the restructuring, but he resigned in six months because he couldn't meet the targets.”

REDtone profit surges on non-core asset sale (Star)

2013-04-25T09:27:00.003+08:00

REDtone International Bhd’s net profit for its third quarter ended Feb 28 surged over 800% to RM3.92mil from RM427,000, mainly due to the divestment of non-core and loss-making business within the group as well as higher data revenue.

Its revenue during the period rose to RM40.48mil from RM23.58mil a year earlier.

For its nine-month period ended Feb 28, it recorded a net profit of RM9.91mil versus a net loss of RM324,000 in the previous corresponding period while revenue rose to RM97.83mil from RM84.24mil a year earlier.

As for prospects and outlook, the company said its repositioning from primarily a voice business to data and broadband had again shown positive results in the third quarter 2013.

“After recording losses for the past four years, the group returned to profitability since the fourth quarter of 2012,” it added.

The company said for its current financial year ending May 31, 2013, (FY13) its board was putting in place a few strategies to further improve its profit.

“Data and broadband services, which includes about 4,500 WiFi hotspots, will continue to be the main contributor to the group’s profit for FY13, while the voice business segment will continue to be the group’s cash cow,” it added.

MyEG - Does not need "Time" (CIMB)

2013-04-22T12:34:00.002+08:00

Khazanah set to call TIME on 45pc stake (BT)

2013-04-22T12:18:00.002+08:00

Government-owned investment agency Khazanah Nasional Bhd is expected to announce the buyer of its entire 45 per cent stake in TIME Engineering Bhd next month.

A source said Khazanah is in the final lap of evaluating the three shortlisted companies, which are Skali Group, Censof Holdings Bhd and MyEG Services Bhd.

"All the companies have an equal and fair chance and TIME Engineering could be a good fit to any of the winning bidders by bringing synergy and complementing existing operations.

Khazanah is at the final binding bid stage," said the source.

The deal is estimated to be worth RM90 million based on a share price closing of 28 sen last Friday, or a market capitalisation value of some RM217.07 million.

Khazanah is disposing of the stake as part of the government's long-term plan to reduce its stake in businesses by encouraging entrepreneurship and increasing Bumiputera ownership.

TIME Engineering is a loss-making information technology firm that provides solutions in e-commerce and cyber security. The company owns a 71.2 per cent stake in Dagang Net Technologies Sdn Bhd and has been without a chief executive officer since May 2009.

TIME Engineering was once part of the now defunct Renong Bhd, which has since been taken over by UEM Group Bhd, which is Khazanah's wholly-owned subsidiary.

For its financial year ended December 2012, TIME Engineering suffered a net loss of RM7.78 million on the back of a RM144.59 revenue.

RHB Research cuts TRC Synergy fair value to 52 sen (STAR)

2013-04-22T12:06:00.001+08:00

KUALA LUMPUR: RHB Research Institute is reducing TRC Synergy Bhd's financial year 2013 (FY13) ending Dec 31 earnings forecast by 21% to 52 sen from 65 sen.

It said on Monday the lower earnings were to reflect lower progress and margins from the LRT line extension project on the back of temporary work restrictions following a mishap last month.

“We are downgrading FY13 net profit forecast by 21% largely to reflect lower progress and margins from the RM950mil Package A' main contract of the Kelana Jaya LRT Line extension project,” it said.

To recap, construction equipment hoisted by a crane at an LRT extension site at Jalan Lapangan Terbang Subang fell and crushed two cars, killing one person and wounding another.

Ivory looks like a gem in the making (Edge)

2013-04-19T14:28:00.002+08:00

CIMB Research maintains Outperform on MY EG Services (STAR)

2013-04-18T15:32:00.000+08:00

KUALA LUMPUR: CIMB Equities Research is maintaining its Outperform call on MY EG Services with a target price of RM1.34, which is 60.5% above the last traded price of 84 sen.

It said on Thursday its recent meeting with management indicates positive progress in its new foreign workers' working permit renewal service.

“MyEG recently secured its first major contract from a plantation GLC. Furthermore, the VVTS service is gaining popularity with motorcycle dealers,” it said.

CIMB Research said its EPS forecasts are unchanged and irs target price maintained, pegged at 16 times CY14 price-to-earnings (P/E), a 20% premium over its target market P/E.

“The premium is backed by its above-market three-year EPS CAGR. Higher-than-expected revenue growth from new services should catalyse the stock.

“MyEG remains our top pick in the technology and small-cap sectors. The stock continues to be an Outperform,” said the research house.

Gold's Bull Market Is Not Over

2013-04-15T15:19:00.003+08:00

Gold's Bull Market Is Not Over
Gold Is Headed Much Higher. This Is Why.

Robert McHugh, Ph.D.
14 April 2013

Gold’s Bull market from 1999 is not over, and a huge rally leg remains in its future. That future is not far off. This article presents why the market is telling us Gold could reach 3,000 before the Bull Market ends.

Above we show the big picture for Gold. Gold bottomed July 20th, 1999, wave II’s bottom. Since then, wave III up has been one of the all-time greatest Bull Markets in Gold. The question this weekend is, is Gold’s big Bull market from the July 20th, 1999 low of 252.80 over? Our Elliott Wave analysis shown above says no, the Bull Market rally in Gold is not over. Wave III so far has taken Gold up 1,670 points to the September 6th, 2011 all-time high of 1,923, which was a 761 percent gain in 12 years.

There are many reasons we do not believe Gold has topped, and believe that Gold has much higher to go. Wave threes that are not part of a triangle pattern (sometimes they can be) are impulsive, meaning they move the price vertically. These impulsive wave threes (in this case wave III) are made up of five subwaves. Above we can clearly see that wave III so far has only produced four subwaves. This means there has to be a fifth wave coming, a rally leg. In stocks, typically wave threes are the most dramatic. In precious metals, typically, wave fives are the most dramatic. Above we see that wave 4 is mature, and wave 5 up is next. We believe the consolidation over the past two years has been a wave 4 pattern, which includes a descending triangle pattern. It has been forming for 19 months. Wave 2 shown above was a zigzag decline. The principle of alternation suggests that the patterns for corrective waves 2 and 4 should form different patterns. Clearly that has occurred, which legitimizes the above count, and supports the need for a coming wave 5 within wave III.

If the coming wave 5 is to be the most dramatic move, then it will have to take Gold higher by more than the 750 points that wave 1 produced, and likely more than the 1,200 points wave 3 up produced. It suggests Gold should head for a price target of 2,700 to 3,000 when the coming wave 5 up finishes.

Above we get a closer look of corrective waves 2 and 4. They should be proportional in either time or price regression, or both, for this mapping to be correct. Wave 2 down took about 7 months and saw Gold fall a bit over 300 points. So far, wave 4 down has taken 19 months and taken 450 points off Gold. In terms of time, since this is a 14 year Bull market from 1999, those two waves pass the proportionality test, lending validity to the wave count. In terms of price decline, 300 points and 450 points are close relative to the 1600 points Gold rallied from 1999 to 2011. In percentage terms, wave 2 took Gold down 30 percent, and so far wave 4 has taken Gold down about 24 percent. Again, close. So we conclude that all waves from 1999 to 2013 are proportional as labeled, which supports the scenario that the decline from September 2011 is a wave 4 corrective decline inside a mega-rally bull market, that by definition of an impulsive wave’s required subwaves, will be followed by a huge wave 5 up rally.

Next, we want to study the pattern from 2011, labeled wave 4. We want to understand it, label it accurately, and project when it will end, and at what price it will end. Initially it looked as if wave 4 down was simply forming a five wave descending bullish triangle. However, Friday, April 12ths’ nearly 100 point plunge broke decisively below the support shelf for such a triangle pattern, meaning something else is going on. There are a ton of overlapping waves in this pattern from September 2011, so we know it is corrective, and not the start of an impulsive Bear market in Gold. Gold has not topped, and is not in a Bear market. Let me be clear about that. What is happening is wave 4 decided to become more complex. Wave fours and wave b’s are notorious for acting unpredictably, having a mind of their own, and metamorphosing from one pattern to another.

However, by breaking the bottom boundary of the descending bullish triangle, a horizontal shelf that has served to stop declines several times over the past 19 months, clarity has arrived. Wave 4 has formed an a-down, b-up, c-down move, with a-down a smaller version of the descending bullish triangle, wave b-up rallied out of the triangle upon its conclusion in a three-wave {a}-up, {b}-down, {c}-up simple flat, followed by an impulsive wave c-down move which will bring about the conclusion of wave 4.

Where and when will wave c-down of 4 bottom? One possibility is the intersection of the declining trend-channel for wave c-down we show in the second chart with the bottom boundary of the rising trend-channel from 1999 to 2013. That projects a bottom for Gold around 1,375ish to 1,400ish, around June, 2013, possibly sooner. The above labeling suggests wave {iii} down is underway, and waves {iv} up and {v} down are needed before Gold’s wave 4 bottoms.

While this is disappointing for Gold bugs, the good news is that once wave 4 completes, going long Gold should produce excellent returns.

There is another reason we believe Gold is bottoming, and that is the position of the Weekly Full Stochastics, shown on the next page. The current levels are supportive for a bottom in Gold soon, and the start of a powerful rally.

According to the above chart, Gold is about to start a strong rally. Since 2007, every time Gold’s weekly Full Stochastic fell to the 20ish level, and the Fast crossed above the Slow, Gold began a rally that lasted at least two months, some times lasting longer, and rallied at least 150 points, at least 10 percent. Gold could rise 250 points during this next rally, the first leg of a five wave rally for wave 5-up.

Gold is a safe haven during times of crisis. Political, military, financial, disease, or natural disaster events serve to boost Gold’s value. The perception that these threats are likely serves to create demand for Gold. Fiat currency hyper-creation from central banks, as we see going on now, serves to boost the value of Gold. Economic crises that jeopardize the value of currencies serve to boost the value and demand for Gold. Should one nation decide to move its currency to a Gold standard, demand for Gold could exceed ready supply quickly. The world is a dangerous place, and Fiat monetization of sovereign debt borders on the irresponsible. These fundamental issues bode well for Gold’s long-term value.

Do not be satisfied hearing what the market did; learn how to predict what the market is going to do. Join us at www.technicalindicatorindex.com as we study the language of the markets. Markets tell where they are headed. Technical Analysis is the science where we learn and apply the language of the markets. We are currently offering a FREE 30 Day Trial Subscription. Simply go to www.technicalindicatorindex.com and click on the Free Trial button at the upper right of the home page. If you would like to follow us as we analyze precious metals, mining stocks, and major stock market indices around the globe, We prepare daily and expanded weekend reports, and also offer mid-day market updates 2 to 3 times a week for our subscribers. We cover a host of indicators and patterns, and present charts for most major markets in our International and U.S. Market reports.

This Is The Final Liquidation Of The Gold Bug

2013-04-15T11:34:00.000+08:00

Mike Swanson
14 April 2013

... Now many are selling disgust. CNBC is saying that gold is done, because Ben Bernanke and President Obama have put the country on the verge of a coming economic boom. They say command and control economics is the future and anyone who doubts this by owning gold is a dinosaur. In the last month we have seen days in which good economic news comes out that gold has gone done in value. Then on days when bad news has been announced gold goes down too instead of doing up.

Then on Friday the Cyprus government said it would sell gold and give the proceeds to the European Monetary Union to finance its bank bailouts as it gives up its national birthright. It seems no news is good for gold. Goldman Sachs sent a note to clients last week telling them to short gold. Marc Faber told a reporter this weekend that he thinks gold could drop to $1,300 an ounce before bottoming.

Many are saying gold is over and there are some now that have held on to their gold positions for years and are now selling. Some are taking that money and moving it into the S&P500 in obedience to the talking heads on CNBC and really more in fear of missing out on more stock market gains than anything else. If that turns out to be a mistake well at least they won't be alone - so for many there is emotional comfort in that. They'll lose money with everyone else and that isn't as bad as possibly being all alone in gold while your neighbors in their boring mutual funds make money not knowing what they are doing. But that is not prudent investment behavior.

And Goldman Sachs isn't always right. What Goldman Sachs does with its own money and what it tells clients can be two different things. Back in March of 2000 Goldman Sachs talking head Abby Cohen told people to keep buying Internet stocks just as they topped. In July of last year Goldman Sachs sent a note to clients telling them to SHORT the S&P500 due to what they thought were signs of economic weakness in the US economy. That was a mistake and this call now to short on gold on their behalf will be proven to be one too.

"So what is going on then?" you probably are asking. Why is gold falling? What does this mean? Are all the economic risks gone? Is deflation coming? Is Fed QE the miracle CNBC's Steve Liesman says it is? Yes there are some who hate gold bugs, because they represent doubts over the Federal Reserve. They wish they would become extinct.

But gold is not going away. Here is the thing. No one really knows exactly why gold is falling, because there probably is not some big economic reason for it. The truth is markets are cruel. They go up and trap people at tops and then fall far enough to cause as many people to sell on a bottom as they can. This is how bull and bear markets work.

Bear markets do not come to an end when news all of a sudden gets better. They come to an end when every potential seller in them sells out. This is what really causes bear markets - more selling than buying. Gold has been in a bear market now since 2011. However, that is a two year bear cycle within a long-term secular bull market cycle that has been going on for gold now for over a decade and is not over yet.

There are two things you need to realize. When this gold bear market is over a new bull market will begin and those that are invested in that bull market will make an absolute killing. Gold is still up over 480% from 2001 even with its decline of the past two years. And since then gold has gone through two other major declines which lasted over a year that led to awesome gains once they ended. There is no reason to think this time will be different.

Whatever you do you need to make sure that you are in gold during that next bull market. To sell now would mean to give that up. Perhaps though you have to sell. Maybe you own too much. Maybe you are on margin. Maybe you are a hedge fund with investors that now will have no more patience for your gold positions with the S&P 500 going up the past few months. You see bear markets force people to sell for many reasons. Hundreds of millions of dollars are being forced out of the gold market right now.

Second you have to realize that there is nothing easy about trying to make big bucks out of a financial market, because financial markets are cruel. If you thought the gold game was going to be easy than grow up. But realize that nothing else will be any easier. Don't think for a second that the S&P500 is going to remain an easy game for people either. Since I've been in the financial markets there have been two massive stock market wipeouts that were just as bad - if not worse - than what we are witnessing in gold right now. And I am sure eventually once this bull market in the US stock market ends there will be another cruel bear market that will wipeout another round of investors.

This is how the stock market works and this cycle will never end. You see bull markets thrive on buying. They depend on more people putting more money into use to drive them higher. As people buy they get bullish. If someone has money and is on the sidelines he has doubts about the market. But once he buys he pushes those doubts away and proclaims himself to be a bull! That is why at major market tops bullish sentiment is widespread and just about everyone you know is in. But when there are no buyers left to get in the bull market ends as sellers take control.

As bear market start people hold on in hope. Each rally that comes appears to be the start of a new bull market, but as each successive rally disappoints more and more people sell. Sellers take control of the market. Whether the news is good or bad the market drops anyway.

You see the NEWS DOES NOT MATTER. In bull markets bad news is bought and in bear markets all news gets sold. The news means nothing. All that matters is whether the sellers are in control or the buyers. All that matters is whether the market is in a bull market or a bear market and that is ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW. Trying to figure out why gold is dropping right now is a total waste of your time. It is dropping because it has been in a bear market for almost two years now and at the end of bear markets you can get crashes and extremes in bearish sentiment as every person who is a potential seller finally sells in a giant capitulation. What you are witnessing is not some grand change in the world economy, but the mass liquidation of all remaining gold bugs. It is simply the natural process of a bear market cycle that started in the Fall of 2011.

Right now the sentiment surrounding this gold market is just about as bad now as I've ever seen it.

I have hinted at the extreme depressed sentiment including the following important indicators:

•    In early March COT reported Gold short positions reached the highest level in over a decade
•    In early March Gold's Public Opinion reached one of the lowest levels in at least a decade
•    Last week COT reported Silver short positions reached the highest level in almost two decades
•    Last week Silver's Public Opinion reached one of the lowest levels in at least a decade

The latest development worthy of "decade extreme" or "record extreme" within the Precious Metals sector, comes to us thanks to Mark Hulbert Financial Digest. According to Mark's latest WSJ column, there has been a huge plunge in exposure of various Gold newsletter advisors. Currently, the Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment index (HGNSI) is at -31% net short, a historical record low since the inception of the survey in 1997. Essentially, this means that the average Gold newsletter advisor is telling subscribers and various other clients to be short Gold with 31% of their portfolio.

I just want to plead with you, do not give up on gold! You see no one cannot predict at what exact price the current gold price drop is going to end, but I can tell you two things for sure. I can tell you first of all that gold stocks are super cheap now on a fundamental basis with many gold stocks paying big dividends - dividends bigger than you can get from buying a US treasury bond. Newmont for example has a P/E of 10 and is paying a dividend over 4.30%.

I know you are probably thinking well they were cheap a month ago too and that doesn't mean that gold and gold stocks can't go lower. And yes you are right! They can. But one thing we both know for sure all bear markets come to an end and this one will too. And once it does gold prices will explode in value and a whole new cycle of gold investors will make a mint off of it.

I plan on being a part of that. I have a little gold and gold stock position so this drop has barely made a dent in my portfolio. You see I own positions in markets all over the world and gold has just been a tiny part of my portfolio. I didn't want to buy a whole lot of it until I was sure the bear trend was over.

Now I am getting excited about the idea of buying more of it. Tomorrow morning I am going to send premium WSW Power Investors my game plan for doing just that. We are all learning lessons from these markets. You never stop learning.

If you have had no choice but to sell gold positions because of this decline or feel like you must due to the impact a further drop in gold would have on your portfolio or your job if you are a fund manager then the lesson you need to take away from this is not that gold is now bad, but that you need to manage your money differently in the future. The mistake you made was not in owning gold, but in owning too much of it or not reducing your position at the right time and taking some profits if you sold years ago.

Maybe you are in cash and are feeling no pain at all though. I do not know what your personal position is on gold as I am writing this for myself and thousands of others who will read it. What all of us must do, no matter what our current investments are, is figure out what is the best way to make money in these markets going forward. If you believe like I do that gold will go higher once again once its current decline that started way back in the Fall of 2011 is over than you must figure out how you want to be a part of that next bull run in gold and precious metals. You need to figure out when you want to buy it and how much.

You need to figure out how you want to manage your money in a bull market. You see people buy in tops and sell on crashes over and over again never learning anything, because they never stop to learn from what they have already done. Once you learn then you make money in a sustainable manner.

Bull markets come and go. So do bear markets. These cruel cycles and patterns never will end, because they are human nature. With gold we are witnessing climatic bear market crash action. We are witnessing the liquidation of the gold bug and the beginning of a bottom. The only thing left once all of the potential sellers are gone will be the few strong hands left - those will be the people who just own a little bit so they don't get crushed so much they have to sell and those simply tough enough to hold on. They are the few and the brave.

What you have to think about though isn't being tough - but getting smarter when it comes to investing. Market action like this is when it makes sense to make plans to buy. Think about last year when European markets crashed and everyone said it was stupid to invest there. No one believed, because no one was left to believe. And now the gold bugs are almost all gone too.

Bina Puri wins RM1.3b mixed development in Brickfields (STAR)

2013-04-05T15:35:00.001+08:00

PETALING JAYA: Syarikat Prasarana Negara Bhd has named Bina Puri Holdings Bhd as the winner of a RM1.3bil mixed development in Brickfields, confirming an earlier report by StarBiz.

Industry sources had told StarBiz in January that builder-cum-developer Bina Puri was one of the three frontrunners for the job. The other two were privately-held TH Properties Sdn Bhd and NPO Development Sdn Bhd.

This would be Prasarana's fourth property joint venture on land adjacent to LRT stations after similar arrangements were inked with Crest Builder Holdings Bhd, TRC Synergy Bhd, and Naza TTDI Sdn Bhd.

Prasarana, the asset owner and operator of Klang Valley's LRT, monorail and public bus services, said in a statement yesterday that the public-private partnership with a unit of Bina Puri was signed after a “thorough and comprehensive” study of various proposals from leading property developers for the project in the PT110 area in Brickfields, which is linked to the Tun Sambanthan monorail nearby the KL Sentral transport hub.

The currently-abandoned 4.61-acre site will be developed into 1,660 units of small office versatile office, or SoVo, with three towers, 22 floors of service suites, a commercial podium, a sky bridge, restaurant and car park.

The win pushes Bina Puri's total gross development value (GDV) to RM2.48bil, group managing director Tan Sri Datuk Tee Hock Seng said in the joint statement.

Bina Puri's in-house development projects include the Puri Tower at Puchong, the Laman Vila at Mon't Kiara, and the Main Place Residence and Mall at USJ 21.

The cost paid by the company for the land was not disclosed, but Prasarana had previously noted in an interview with StarBiz that the state-owned firm typically received about 16% of the GDV for use of the land.

“This project will be managed by Prasarana Integrated Development Sdn Bhd (PRIDE) and a ceremony will be arranged soon to formalise our partnership with Bina Puri Group,” PRIDE chief executive officer Rudyanto Azhar said.

The yet-unnamed development, Rudyanto added, would be complemented by the River of Life project.

In a brief filing with Bursa Malaysia, Bina Puri said the project would be completed within 67 months.

Prasarana had last year signed an RM1.04bil tie-up with Crest Builder for a mixed-use tower atop the Dang Wangi LRT. Earlier this year it announced an RM687.5mil commercial-residential project with TRC Synergy and an RM153mil 26-storey condominium tower in Taman Tun Dr Ismail with Naza TTDI.

CIMB Research bullish on Iskandar Malaysia growth story (STAR)

2013-04-05T15:29:00.002+08:00

KUALA LUMPUR: CIMB Equities Research is still upbeat on the growth prospects in the Iskandar Malaysia region in Johor after a visit to various sites there.

"We visited Nusajaya, Setia Eco Gardens, Port of Tanjung Pelepas and Mah Sing's Meridin@Medini while hosting Benalec, Johor Petroleum Dev Corporation, Kulim Malaysia and Axis REIT briefings as well," it said in a report released on Friday.

It noted UEM Land had an upper hand in choosing its joint venture partners in Nusajaya now given that the brighter prospects seen as Iskandar reached a tipping point in 2012.

It also said demand for industrial property in the region was surprisingly strong.

"For example, SP Setia's non-Bumi industrial properties in Setia Business Park priced between RM3.2mil and RM8.5mil have been fully taken up while Axis Group's phase 1 of SME City was sold out in two hours. "Many buyers are Singapore small and medium enterprises looking to shift to a lower-cost destination. We view this very positively as it will help bring development, jobs and economic activity to the state.

CIMB Research said this would in turn have a multiplier effect on Iskandar and boost demand for properties.

It added Ascendas Land's joint venture with UEM Land to develop a 519-acre industrial park could accelerate the booming development.

The research house pointed out that property developers continue to provide the best exposure to Iskandar but plantation companies, such as Kulim and Genting Plantations; oil and gas companies, such as Dialog, as well as contractors, such as Benalec were some of the beneficiaries of the advancement there.

Gold Needs To Breathe, Too

2013-04-03T17:35:00.000+08:00

Stewart Thomson
www.gracelandupdates.com
2 April 2013

All financial eyes should be focused on the BOJ (Bank of Japan) right now. Money managers are calling this week’s BOJ meeting, the most important one in many years.

It’s likely to be a key factor in determining the next big move for the price of gold.

Key market players expect Governor Kuroda to imitate Ben Bernanke’s actions, and begin buying longer maturity bonds, and more of them, with electronically printed yen.

If Kuroda disappoints the market, the yen could rally, and the Nikkei could tumble. If the yen rallied against the dollar, gold might rally too, simply because it trades mainly in dollars.

On the other hand, if the market believes Kuroda’s actions are a great first step in reversing Japanese deflation, gold could also rally. In the big picture, Kuroda seems to be creating a “win win” situation for gold.

The man formerly known as “Mr. Yen”, Eisuke Sakakibara, former vice finance minister of Japan, thinks Kuroda will fail to reverse deflation.
I don’t believe Kuroda will fail, but I believe most money managers are drastically underestimating the amount of money printing that is needed to get the job done.

Kuroda has said he will do “whatever it takes” to get the Japanese inflation rate up to 2%. Cost push inflation (CPI) will likely be the horrific consequence of doing “whatever it takes”.

Japan is the 3rd largest economy in the world, far larger than Germany, which is number 4. CPI could devastate Japanese savers. Worse, because Japan is such a large economy, CPI could spread around the world, and I think it will.

The only good news about CPI is that it could push the gold price well above $2000, and push your gold stocks to new highs. Right now, I don’t think you need any more good news than that!

Until CPI becomes a dominant theme in the eyes of professional money managers, a rising T-bond price will continue to be bullish for gold. Quantitative easing, and the resulting expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet, is the main driver of gold market liquidity flows.

You are looking at the daily chart of the T-bond. The good news, for gold market investors, is that there is an upside breakout attempt in play, today. Note the key HSR (horizontal support & resistance) in the 145 area.

Having said that, please note the position of my “stokeillator” (14,7,7 Stochastics series), at the bottom of the chart. The red lead line has risen to about 90. A crossover sell signal seems imminent, but I’m hoping that any sell-off creates the right shoulder of a bullish double-headed inverse h&s pattern. It’s very common, technically speaking, for the price of an asset to rise a bit above a key HSR line, before overbought oscillators “work” to pull it back down, and that may be the case here with the T-bond.

The technical set-up of this bond chart is similar to that of gold. That’s the daily gold chart, and you can see that a crossover sell signal for my stokeillator is clearly in play.

It’s difficult for gold to rally strongly, when technical oscillators are overbought and flashing sell signals. A light sell-off now, or a sideways “drift”, could be just what is needed to begin a much larger rally of $200-$300 an ounce. I think that is exactly what is in the cards now, for gold.

Note the important HSR at about $1620. If the T-bond can surge above 145, gold should burst above $1620.

That’s the hourly gold chart. Note the rough rectangular pattern, defined by the two black trend lines. The target is about $1575.

Oscillators are like the tides of the ocean, or a person’s breathing pattern. Fighting the natural tendency of gold to rise and fall in a small way, as oscillators move up and down, is not a good idea.

The situation in the Korean peninsula is potentially a big driver of higher gold prices, but that too, seems to be in sync with my stokeillator; tensions are building, but North Korea has not physically moved any significant number of troops, and that’s needed to raise the tension level. A major rise in tensions seems imminent, but it’s not quite here yet.

Gold stocks may need a little more “rest time”, too. You are viewing the BMO Junior Golds Index ETF daily chart. Note the “waterfall” action of the technical indicators.

That’s not a giant sell signal. It’s simply the cycle of “gold stocks life”.

While you wait for cost push inflation to become a dominant theme in markets around the world, gold stocks will rise and fall in a small way, like the tide comes in and goes out. A tidal wave of price is coming, but investors need to wait for it, with patience.

GDXJ has a similar look to the BMO ETF. This is the daily chart. Volume declined during the recent rally, and now most technical indicators are rolling over, suggesting a little weakness is possible. Oscillators don’t create tidal waves, though. Fundamentals do. The fundamentals will create a tidal wave for gold, and these technical oscillators & indicators are telling you that the price of gold needs to breathe, in and out, like a person does. Let the gold price breathe naturally, and you’ll find the price action much less stressful!

Redtone inks Ethernet agreement with TM (Edge)

2013-04-03T09:28:00.000+08:00

立通國際展望看俏

2013-04-01T15:52:00.000+08:00

2013-04-01 13:35

（吉隆坡29日訊）本地通訊業將進入4G時代，預料有助立通國際（REDTONE，0032，創業板貿服組）未來盈利表現，特別是獲得4大利好支撐，其中首推它與明訊（MAXIS，6012，主板貿服組）在頻譜分享預付收費中，將推高其2013/2014年財政年盈利，使未來展望看俏。

達證券指出，立通國際的其餘3項利好，分別為可從复合頻譜資源分享收費中取得多年盈利擴張，穩定的頻譜收費及偏低資本開銷有望派發較高股息，及它是政府資訊及寬頻計劃的強勁競爭者（目前競標總額達5億令吉）等利好。（星洲網）

股價低估‧傳買家出價1.90令吉‧第一控股或成收購目標

2013-03-28T19:32:00.003+08:00

（吉隆坡25日訊）第一控股工業（FACBIND，2984，主板工業產品組）股價遠低於有形資產，或成為收購目標。

據市場消息透露，有買家有意以每股1令吉90仙收購該公司股票，主要是看中其雄厚資產及業務前景。

消息指出，該公司價值被低估，以其龐大有型資產估算，顯得物有所值，即使“某集團＂不出手，亦將引起其他公司展開收購行動。

“買方有充裕現金展開收購，此收購價比每股淨資產折價30%，但可從中享有該公司龐大現金及良好獲利前景。＂

第一控股工業週一舉行股東特大，已獲股東通過脫售鋼鐵業務和工廠，完成脫售後，每股淨資產將從1令吉88仙，飆漲至2令吉68仙，現金從2千511萬2千令吉增至1億4千940萬2千令吉，意味每股現金將達1令吉78仙。

小股東不滿沒派特別息

不過，現場亦有小股東對第一控股工業為新投資計劃保留現金，而沒有承諾特別派息感到失望，料無意留守該股。

一名小股東指出，該公司僅表示會考量特別派息，令許多出席者感到不滿意，同時亦未交代清楚新投資計劃詳情，對其未來業務前景感到不確定和憂心。

“我們並不預期該公司會動用所有現金派息，但至少該從中撥出一些作為特別派息回饋股東。＂

該股東認為，因派息利好因素買入該股的股東可能會脫售目前持有股份，而導致該股走跌至1令吉以下。

“1令吉成本價太高，在大選前夕料帶來風險，相信宣佈派息將激勵該股走高。＂從去年12月起，該股持續攀升，從最初的約50仙翻倍至目前的1令吉20仙水平。

另一位大股東則建議，第一控股工業必須通過派息或以非現金回饋方式，如2送1紅利或股息再投資計劃，收窄淨資產、現金值及股價的價差，讓雙方從中收益。

“以有形資產高於股價60%計算，該股價值已被低估，將持續買入該股。＂

週一該股以1令吉18仙掛收，下滑3仙或2.48%。（星洲日報／財經）

Bina Puri tipped to win Brickfields development (Kinibiz)

2013-03-27T17:38:00.001+08:00

Bina Puri Holdings Bhd has been tipped to secure a contract worth RM1.2 billion from transport operator Prasarana Bhd to develop a two acre plot of land around the monorail station in Brickfields, Kuala Lumpur, sources say.

“The job could be awarded (to Bina Puri) within the next two weeks, only a few minor details are left to be sorted out,” the source who declined to be identified said.

Prasarana officials did not want to comment when contacted.

Hwang DBS starts Muhibbah with 'buy' (BT)

2013-03-27T17:33:00.001+08:00

Hwang DBS Vickers Research started coverage of civil engineering company Muhibbah Engineering (M) Berhad with a 'buy' rating and a target price of RM2.15 per share, citing bright earnings prospects due to its niche position in the market.

Muhibbah’s spread of businesses, which includes crane manufacturing, ship building and civil construction projects, differentiates it from the average contractor, giving it a scarcity premium, Hwang DBS said in a note on Wednesday.

"Muhibbah’s niche strengths in marine infrastructure and construction leave it nicely poised to win additional contracts in both the booming domestic oil and gas industry as well as abroad," Hwang DBS said.

The research house said based on the group’s recent share prices, its earnings in the financial years of 2013-2014 could see a net yield growth between 4 and 5 per cent.

"Moving forward, we are anticipating at least a 20 per cent net profit payout, based on its historical distribution record, coupled with better forward earnings," Hwang DBS added.

The research house said Muhibbah could give the Asia Petroleum Hub — one of the largest petroleum storage projects in the region — a "new lease of life" in a recovery plan that could be revealed after the general elections.

"If this happens, we expect possible writebacks of RM405 million (RM1 per share), further boosting our forecasts."

As of 11.18am, shares in Muhibbah were up 0.85 per cent against the benchmark stock index’s 0.88 per cent gain.-- Reuters

TRC Synergy said to be good proxy (BT)

2013-03-27T12:12:00.004+08:00

KUALA LUMPUR: TRC Synergy Bhd is a good proxy to the Klang Valley mass rapid transit project, a local brokerage firm said.

TRC has a strong balance sheet and will outperform expectations, Public Investment Bank said in a report yesterday.

The research firm maintained its RM800 million gross development value (GDV) forecast of TRC's proposed joint venture mixed development at the Kelana Jaya Line extension project.

TRC is partnering Syarikat Prasarana Negara Bhd in the project. TRC's own modest GDV of the project, at RM688 million, is lower than what Public Investment had estimated. But the latter is confident of its GDV projection as "TRC is a good proxy to the Klang Valley MRT project".

Public Investment estimates an average selling price of RM600 per square foot for the project on land surrounding Station 2 of the Kelana Jaya line extension. The project is expected to be launched in the second half of this year.

TRC shares closed two sen higher to 56 sen yesterday, with 384,400 units traded.

A leap for KKB into O&G after Petronas license (Edge)

2013-03-26T14:45:00.001+08:00

Subsea contract lifts Alam Maritim (Edge)

2013-03-26T11:51:00.001+08:00