Horsewin

Horsewin Results Sample to January 29 2012

2012-01-31T15:39:00.001-05:00

Below is the most recent update and analysis of results for published selections from Horsewin Reports. While the win % are moving closer to the expected norm of 30%, the payoffs are lagging. A flat bet profit is not possible with these results. There are some good returns available on selected races. I estimate the true value on the selections as 3-1 for a top pick (2-1 in a small field), 5-1 for a 2nd pick, 8-1 for 3rd pick and 10-1 for 4th pick. In small fields which are fairly frequent at AQU and SA, rarely are these odds available; however, when there is a larger field, the opportunities to play at value odds are much more frequent.

It is interesting to note that the total win % for the top 4 selections is quite high. Multiple race bets may present the best chance for profits, notwithstanding the higher risk.

			HORSEWIN WEEKEND RESULTS FOR Dec 26 2011- Jan 29 2012
						WIN SUMMARY
Track	Races	TOP	Col 1	ODDS	2ND	2ND	ODDS	3RD	3RD	ODDS	4TH	4TH	ODDS	TOTAL
		Wins	Win %		Wins	Win %		Wins	Win %		Wins	Win %		Win %
AQU	226	78	34.5%	1.6	46	20.4%	3.2	29	12.8%	3.2	25	11.1%	7.3	78.8%

GP	275	68	24.7%	2.2	47	17.1%	3.8	41	14.9%	5.8	25	9.1%	7.1	65.8%

SA	198	55	27.8%	1.9	31	15.7%	2.7	28	14.1%	4.7	17	8.6%	5.9	66.2%

TAM	123	39	31.7%	1.9	27	22.0%	3	13	10.6%	5	8	6.5%	9	70.7%
				PLACE SUMMARY
		TOP		ODDS	2ND		ODDS
		PL			PL
AQU	226	44	19.5%	2.3	38	16.8%	4.2

GP	275	48	17.5%	2.8	38	13.8%	5.3

SA	198	38	19.2%	2.9	38	19.2%	4.3

TAM	123	18	14.6%	2.6	22	17.9%	3.3

Looking Back at the National Handicapping Challenge 2012

2012-01-27T14:14:00.000-05:00

Looking for Longshots

Generally, my attempts at handicapping tournament play have been failures. My goal for 2012 is to become a competent tournament player and then perhaps start to pursue the NHC Tour.

My approach to handicapping is to try to find the most probable horses at a price. In some cases, the favourites are confirmed as most probable horses and perform as expected. There are upsets when less probable horses win and the post mortem is usually either expected performances didn't materialize or the winner improved to a new level that wasn't necessarily predictable based on past performances.

This is an area of handicapping that is very challenging to master. I have read or heard numerous predictions of bounces, or better performances based on previous trips or form cycle. While sometimes valid, these "angles" are hard to predict and measure effectively to determine probability. For example, it has been suggested that 3 declining speed figures is a clear negative and these horses should not be played. My experience says that these horses win their share and other factors are more important screening tools. I will be looking for a more consistent way to identify horses that can be played for tournament wins

Profiling

In the past year, an extensive analysis was completed of factors that could help profile horses that win races. I divided these profiles into 2 categories: Horses with strong profiles that could be called key horses and another set of factors that identified horses with a chance of winning at higher odds. These 2 profiles are highlighted in Red and Yellow respectively on the Horsewin Reports.

Key Horses (Red)

In the results below for the NHC Mandatory Races, only 4 Key horses won or about 27% with a total return of $57.50, or average win/place price of $14.36. In addition 2 placed for an average place only payoff of $4.50. In total 20 horses were identified as key or about 1.33 per race and some of these would have been value plays at odds greater than 3-1.

Over the Friday and Saturday Contest Period, Horsewin Handicapped approximately 82 (non-mandatory) races run at 5 tracks. This created 164 Win/Place and Place Results that could count in contest scores. Key Horses highlighted in Red produced 69 wins (1st or 2nd finish) or 84% in the money. The rate of success suggests that Key Horses are good place to start in the search for winners. The key issue remains of how to get winners at adequate prices to be tournament competitive. At an average 1.3 per race, the right Key Horse has to be played which adds additional challenge.

The top 10 Win/Place payoffs in this 95 Winner Sample totaled $198.70 or an average of $19.87. This type of return is reasonable for competitive tournament play unless a handicapper can win a high % of plays. In the NHC Championship, a total of $238 was achieved by the winner from 29 races or an average return of $8.20 per race. I suspect that the lower total is the result of capped (maximum payoff winners) that pushed most of the leaders to the top. It is suspected that others had to play higher odds horses which resulted in fewer winners. But again, it is difficult to nail the best horse at the best price, even when choosing from 2 or 3 contenders. A number of years ago I played an online tournament where where a top pick and back-up horse had to be selected. My back-up horses won enough return to win the tournament while my top picks performed below average.

Key Longshots (Yellow)

In total, 15 Longshots ( in 11 of 15 mandatory races) were identified in the same sample or an average of about 1.5 per race. Of these, there were 3 winners and 4 places. On average a highlighted longshot placed (1st or 2nd) in 6 of the 15 races. The average win place payoff (uncapped) was $37.14. The average place only payoff was $5.20. This appears to be another source of possible plays for tournaments.

In another group of 82 non-mandatory races from 5 different tracks handicapped by Horsewin, Key Longshots placed (1st or 2nd) 24 times or 29%. The Key Longshots were not as effective in the larger sample in comparison to mandatory race sample.

Mandatory Races and Results Analysis

Track	Race	Horsewin Rank	Win Result(W/P payoff)	Place Result(P payoff)
Friday, January 27, 2012
GP	3	2,3,9,5,4,7	7 ($84)	9 ($5)
TAM	6	1,11,7,3,4	7 ($17.40)	3 ($5.60)
GP	9	3,7,11,4,8	3 ($10.60)	10 ($21.20)
SA	3	3,5,7,1,8	5 ($9)	3 ($5)
FG	9	1,2,7,9,	2 ($19.60)	7 ($4)
OP	9	2,7,3,9,4	9 ($14.60)	1 ($11.80)
SA	7	10,5,6,8,2	2 ($12.80)	9 ($8.40)
Saturday January 28 2012
AQU	4	6,8,1,7	1 ($14.90)	7 ($6.80)
AQU	6	4,2,8,5,3	4 ($9.90 )	8 ($5.00)
TAM	8	10,6,8,2,7,9	8 ($10.80	6 ($4.80)
GP	9	1,10,5,3	5 ($8.40)	1 ($4.20)
SA	6	3,,8,9,1	5 ($18.80)	8 ($8.00)
GP	11	11,10,9,6	2 ($20.60)	11($5.00)
SA	8	2,4,9,7,3	3 ($13.20 )	4($5.80 )

Horsewin Key Picks(Red)	Horsewin Key Longshots(Yellow)

Horsewin Presentation on Report Details

2012-01-20T19:11:00.000-05:00

Below is a presentation on aspects of Horsewin Reports.

Horsewin Weekend Results

2012-01-17T11:33:00.001-05:00

Results and Probabilities

Horsewin Weekend Results for Jan 15-16 2012

Below is a summary that provides a good overview of results from WIN Selections in the Horsewin Report.
Two days of results is a small sample and some anomalies can be identified. Win % for the TOP Selection is usually in the 30 % range. SA and TAM were very formful on these 2 days as reflected in the ODDS of 1.6 and 2.7. Also the TOTAL Win % for SA is aided by the smaller fields, as often the TOP 4 Selections comprise more than half of the field.

Wins - Probabilities - Profit

Using the Value Formula from the www.horsewin.ca website, we can test these results for Profit and project what WIN % and ODDS are required to show gains from betting.

AQU : WIN% - (38.9) x ODDS (1.5)- (100 - WIN % (38.9)) = 1.14% Profit - Just slightly more than Break Even or a poor proposition for gambling.

GP : WIN % (27.3) x ODDS (1.9) - (100 - WIN % (27.3)) = -20.83% Loss

SA : WIN % (44.4) x ODDS (1.6) - (100 - WIN %) = 15.44% Profit

TAM : WIN% (55) x ODDS (2.7) - (100 - WIN %) = 103.5% Profit

The examples above show the importance of WIN % and ODDS. Even when you cashing more tickets, if the odds are not great enough then a loss can be expected.

A 30 Win % is usually expected. At this rate, ODDS greater than 5/2 or 2.5 to 1 are required to show a reasonable profit :

30% x 2.5 - 70 = 5%
30% x 3 - 70 = 20%

A 1/2 change in ODDS makes a significant difference in profit in the long run.

With this in mind, it is important to try to find horses with a profile that can win the race at odds that will pay for the losing propositions. These horses are usually referred to as value horses. Horsewin has a source for value plays which are described in another Blog Post - MAIDEN RACES - A Source of Value.

Multi- Race Bets and Probabilities

Some attractive pay-offs are available from multiple race bets such as Doubles, Pick 3's, 4's, 5's and 6's.

Here is the probability picture for a Pick 3 if you have a 50% win rate (e.g. Top 2 Selections):

1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/8 or 12.5%

Even at 66% win rate the probability looks like this:

2/3 x 2/3 x 2/3 = 8/27 or 29.6%

Of course probabilities decrease as you add additional races.

Keep these probabilities in mind when playing multiple race bets as a significant bankroll is required (between wins) to sustain this type of action.

MAIDEN RACES - A Key Source of Value

2012-01-17T10:53:00.000-05:00

MAIDEN RACES - A Key Source of Value

HORSEWIN provides analysis that compares the relative strength of past performances with the projected potential of First Time Starters (FTS). Often, FTS's are forecast to win and often the odds offered on this type of runner are generous. It is agreed that gambling on this assessment is a higher risk endeavor, but the results achieved with this approach have been strong. Some Horseplayers advocate playing these types of runners when "smart money" shows up. Take the opposite approach and play these horses at higher odds (5-1 or greater). As the information to make this assessment of FTS's, is not readily available to other Horse Players, this is an area where HORSEWIN subscribers have an edge. Below is an example of this edge in action.

Gulfstream Park - Race 10 01/16/2012

In this situation, a Christophe Clement Firster was established at 6-1 in the ML and actually went off at higher odds. The Horsewin assessment was that this Firster could beat this field of more experienced runners and he did at 9-1 odds. The 2nd Ranked #1 finished 3rd and the other Firster, #11, which was ranked 3rd , finished fourth. The 2nd Place finisher , #6 , was not as well ranked on past performance but some expected improvement based on the 4-1 ML and the Mott trainer connection . In the Horsewin Handicapping Guide , it is expressed that Favourites are logical inclusions when playing Ex, Tri's etc as the In The Money %'s are strong. However, consistent with the value approach of looking for horses to bet at a good price (higher odds), your keys in these types of bets should be overlays such as the #5 in this race.

Pedigree is one of the important parts of the analysis of First Time Starters. The #5 in this race is by the Sire English Crossing whose offspring are showing turf promise with the results of his first crop.

#	Horse	Jockey	Weight	Win	Place	Show
5	Easy Crossing	Castellano Javier	122	21.80	10.80	7.20
6	Balance the Budget	Lezcano Jose	122		7.20	5.00
1	Captain Fantastic	Rose Jeremy	122			4.20

Wager Type	Payoff	Winning Numbers	Pool
$1 Pick 3	$1,008.60	1-3-5 (3 Correct)	$49,150
$1 Pick 4	$7,238.40	1/12-1-3-5 (4 Correct)	$178,984
Pick 5	$105.60	8-1/12-1-3-5 (4 Correct)	N/A
Pick 5	$9,695.90	8-1/12-1-3-5 (5 Correct)	$76,057
6J	$5,994.21	12-8-1/12-1-3-5 (6 Correct) (Carryover: $39960)	$24,976
$2 Daily Double	$165.00	3-5	$97,156
$2 Exacta	$112.20	5-6	$243,266
$1 Superfecta	$1,737.50	5-6-1-11	$99,524
$1 Trifecta	$234.20	5-6-1	$153,455
$1 Z5	$10,848.00	5-6-1-11-7	$7,098

Owner:	Preston Stables LLC
Trainer:	Christophe Clement
Breeder:	Mrs. Arturo Peralta Ramos (KY)

Also Ran:	11 - Quiet Rebel, 7 - Fortunate Bill, 3 - Silver Wings, 8 - Situational Ethics,
	2 - Dupes, 4 - In the Midnight, 12 - I Cat, 10 - Fly Ride, 9 - Yes He's Trouble

Scratched:

The Deaconator, Power Emblem, I Captivate Myself

For additional, information on the Horsewin Handicap approach and a Free Trial visit www.Horsewin.ca

Results with HORSEWIN Reports

2012-01-15T12:17:00.000-05:00

Unfortunately, after handicapping and analysis of results, there is very little time left for sharing some of the Horsewin Report Highlights and how the information works in practice.

Here is a look back at some examples from last Saturday through Friday. (01/07 to 01/13 / 2012). The handicapping approach will be identified in each example and as you will see, the information provided in Horsewin Reports can be used in a number of ways to identify actual plays.

The approach that is always recommended is to avoid overbet favorites. Yes, the betting public's choices win more than 33% of the time on average but the payoffs are too low to make a profit. Do not be concerned or discouraged when you get beat by a favorite. Races with overbet favourites can be passed unless you have an exotic or multiple race bet or a "beat the favourite" pick that offers good value. If you play horses with good profiles at higher odds, you should win frequently enough to gain profits.

Also, keep in mind the big picture of handicapping. In my view, about 1/3 of winners can be identified with basic handicapping. Favorites will usually be found in this group. Another 1/3 of winners can be identified through less obvious methods. In this group value plays are likely to be found. The remaining 1/3 of races are difficult if not impossible to pick. Some of the winners in this group will keep you going back to your form to find out how you could pick one of these and you may still be left scratching your head.

The fact that there is a predictability in horse racing makes it the greatest gambling game. If you study all forms of gaming, most present random outcomes. Horse racing is not random.

Race 1 Aqueduct 01/07/2012

Here is an example where the win rankings produce 2 logical favorites in the top 3 but also include a 20-1 Morning Line Horse. When the longshot came 3rd, a nice Trifecta resulted when played with the other top 3 picks. You will see examples of a lone CL (Class) designation such as #7 highlighted in another result . In this case, the 7 was a scratch.

#	Horse	Jockey	Win	Place	Show
6	Poppa's Pick	Cohen D	$6.00	$3.60	$3.30
3	Drink With Pride	Alvarado J	-	$2.80	$2.40
1	Leap Day	Rodriguez J I	-	-	$4.90
9	The Zipster	Luzzi M J	-	-	-

Scratched: Giopi (IRE) (7)

Winning Trainer: David Jacobson – Owner: Drawing Away Stable and Jacobson, David

$1 Trifecta Box Paid $64.50

$2 Exacta (6-3) Paid $18.20

$2 Trifecta (6-3-1) Paid $129.00

$0.10 Superfecta (6-3-1-9) Paid $23.22

Race 2 Gulfstream Park 01/07/2012

In this Race, #6, the top ranked horse, displayed a number of strong attributes in the analysis presented. The strongest indicator beyond the top rating was the H+ H+ Early-Late Profile. These horses appear infrequently and win at over a 50% rate. One example at Saratoga last August paid higher than 20-1 odds. Surprisingly, #6 in this race paid a generous $8 and was followed home by the 2nd pick, at 15-1 ML, for $111 Ex.

#	Horse	Jockey	Win	Place	Show
6	Star Distinction	Rivera II J A	$8.40	$4.60	$3.40
8	Starship Romeo	Jara F	-	$14.20	$8.80
4	Side Party Ralph	Leyva J C	-	-	$4.00
3	Radicchio	Maragh R	-	-	-

Scratched: Hertzel (1)

Winning Trainer: Daniel Pita – Owner: Tabraue, Brenda and Blue Top Holding Stables

$2 Exacta (6-8) Paid $111.20

$0.50 Trifecta (6-8-4) Paid $174.35

$0.10 Superfecta (6-8-4-3) Paid $115.69

Aqueduct Race 3 01/11/2012

This is an example of a Top Win Selection overlay with #7 picked 1st over a very strong entry. I usually look at these situations as a good betting opportunity but cover the favorite winning with an Ex. Box and key on a win bet on the top pick overlay. Of course other betting opportunities are also available with Tri's , Doubles and multiple race plays.

#	Horse	Jockey	Win	Place	Show
7	Time Marches On	Garcia A	$14.00	$3.90	$3.00
1	Deflate the Bubble / Zero Yield	Cohen D / Dominguez R A	-	$2.20	$2.10
1	Deflate the Bubble / Zero Yield	Cohen D / Dominguez R A	-	$2.20	$2.10
5	Dear Elizabeth	Velasquez C H	-	-	-
6	Westside Singer	Luzzi M J	-	-	-

Winning Trainer: Chris J Englehart – Owner: My Purple Haze Stables and Wachtel Stable

$2 Pick 3 (3/5/7) Paid $134.00 (3OF3)

$2 Double (5/7) Paid $31.40

$2 Exacta (7-1) Paid $23.80

$2 Trifecta (7-1-5) Paid $32.60

$2 Trifecta (7-1-6) Paid $83.00

Gulfstream Park Race 7 01/11/2012

In this Race, the overlay #10 at 6-1 ML was my top pick with also a XXX rating. The credentials on #7 were also strong and it is noteworthy that in the Scoring, there is only a 12 point difference. A 50 point gap from 1st to 2nd is considered significant. The #7 took the majority of the money as favorite and didn't disappoint but the #10 came second and an Exacta Box as described earlier saved the day. It is also noteworthy that the Tri and Super were almost in order. Also, #4 the 3rd place finisher displayed the lone H+ which is another angle for play. In this case, all of the significant indicators aligned and a top 3 box was good for the Exacta and Tri.

Race 7

#	Horse	Jockey	Win	Place	Show
7	Gangsterontherun	Corrales F R	$4.60	$3.20	$2.40
10	Bossman Blue's	Maragh R	-	$4.40	$3.40
4	Candi's Halo	Jurado L	-	-	$3.80
9	Subtitles	Rocco, Jr. J	-	-	-

Scratched: Under Contract (3)

Winning Trainer: Wesley A Ward – Owner: Marco Thoroughbred Corp. and Ward, Wesley

$2 Double (11/7) Paid $130.80

$2 Pick 3 (4/11/7) Paid $380.40 (3OF3)

$2 Exacta (7-10) Paid $16.80

$0.50 Trifecta (7-10-4) Paid $16.15

$0.10 Superfecta (7-10-4-9) Paid $16.54

Gulfstream Park Race 9 01/11/2012

Maiden Races on Dirt and Turf are also a source of good results as Horsewin applies a unique analysis to these races that includes an assessment of FTS (First Time Starters). At one time, these races may have been a pass for play as too risky with the unknowns of unraced horses. Now with the knowledge that has been developed, these races are excellent source of overlays.

In the example below, after scratches of 13-16 horses, the New Win Rankings were 5-10-9-2-3 with the #4 as a key horse highlight. In a future Blog Post, we will be discussing the Key Horse Highlights but the bottom line is that any top ranked horse is a play, whether highlighted or not. The tote board lit up with a nice 6-1 top ranked win in the #5 and the 4th ranked FTS #2 came in 2nd at very long odds for a $153 Ex and the #4 3rd for a $259 $.50 Tri.

Race 9

#	Horse	Jockey	Win	Place	Show
5	Commitment Letter	Alvarez J L	$14.40	$7.80	$4.60
2	American Doe	Bravo J	-	$11.20	$6.80
4	Brian	Lezcano J	-	-	$3.60
11	Mr E Philip	Solis A O	-	-	-
10	Jardun	Prado E S	-	-	-

Scratched: Blue Creek (13), Winston C (14), Mambo Boom (15), Starship Storm (16)

Winning Trainer: Teresa M Pompay – Owner: Klaravich Stables, Inc. and Lawrence, William H.

$0.50 Pick 4 (11/3,7/11/5) Paid $4,223.00 (4OF4)

$2 Double (11/5) Paid $406.40

$0.50 Pick 5 (4/11/3,7/11/5) Paid $129.80 (4OF5)

$0.50 Pick 5 (4/11/3,7/11/5) Paid $29,964.00 (5OF5)

$2 Exacta (5-2) Paid $153.80

$0.50 Trifecta (5-2-4) Paid $259.10

$0.10 Superfecta (5-2-4-11) Paid $571.92

$2 Exact 5 (5-2-4-11-10) Paid $19,580.20

$2 Pick 3 (7/11/5) Paid $1,222.00 (3OF3)

Tampa Bay Race 2 01/11/2012

Here is a basic example of the Win Rankings improving on the ML as the top 3 Selections finished in order. The Super was filled out by the #3 which was lower ranked overall but displayed a H+ Late Profile and top ranking in the close column.

#	Horse	Jockey	Win	Place	Show
6	Dazzle Me Danny	Allen, Jr. Ronald Dale	4.00	3.00	2.60
5	Stinging	Barbaran Erik		6.20	4.40
8	Ten Storms	Rodriguez Jaime			3.40

Wager Type	Payoff	Winning Numbers
$2 Daily Double	$7.20	6-6
$30,$2 Exacta	$25.80	6-5
$1 Superfecta	$120.40	6-5-8-3
$2 Trifecta	$72.60	6-5-8

Owner:	Bruno Schickedanz
Trainer:	Yvon Belsoeur
Breeder:	Bruno Schickedanz (ON)

Santa Anita Race 1 01/08/2012

The report excerpt below demonstrates the key angle of a lone H+ horse. In this case the #5 was playable on this factor alone but also was top ranked in Recent Speed and Close. It is positive when multiple factors are aligned when playing for value. Payoffs at 9-1 odds provide a good cushion of error when playing lower ranked horses with positive attributes.

#	Horse	Jockey	Weight	Win	Place	Show
5	My Brite Caroline	Nakatani Corey S.	123	21.40	7.40	3.20
4	Big Tsimmis	Gomez Garrett K.	123		5.60	2.80
6	Kids Table	Rosario Joel	123			2.40

Wager Type	Payoff	Winning Numbers
$1 Exacta	$46.20	5-4
$1 Superfecta	$220.60	5-4-6-3
$1 Trifecta	$109.50	5-4-6

Owner:	Bishop, Will, DeMaio, Jim and John and Nastri, Maia
Trainer:	Gerard Piccioni
Breeder:	Harris Farms Inc. (CA)

Also Ran:

3 - Brooklyn Rose, 2 - Lady Lohr

Scratched:

Swift Beauty

Gulfstream Park Race 2 01/13/2012

On name alone, #8 was playable as a First Time Starter. After the Scratch of #12, the #8 was 2md ranked against a good favorite #4. There was some confirmation of potential when the #8 was bet down to 7/2 odds from the 8-1 ML but FTS's like this are playable whether other betting money shows up or not

Race 2

#	Horse	Jockey	Win	Place	Show
8	Billybillwillywill	Trujillo E	$9.40	$4.80	$3.40
4	Schatt the Bandit	Lopez P	-	$3.00	$2.40
2	Go Zapper	Alvarez J L	-	-	$4.20
10	Professorplumdidit	Leyva J C	-	-	-

Scratched: Swidgen (12), Snow Fleet (13), Signify (14), Supah Secret (15), Goldformylady (16)

Winning Trainer: Wesley A Ward – Owner: Ward, Wesley A. and Phillips, William L.

$2 Double (2/8) Paid $19.00

$2 Exacta (8-4) Paid $30.40

$0.50 Trifecta (8-4-2) Paid $36.25

$0.10 Superfecta (8-4-2-10) Paid $182.04

Aquduct Race 4 01/13/2012

This race contains a number of experienced horses and First Time Starters.
As a FTS, #7 presented a positive profile by ranking in the top 4 WIN and with a top T/J ranking. There is a degree of speculation in the assessment of FTS's but if the odds are favourable, they are playable. In this case a nice $29 win payoff resulted.

ce 4ace 6

#	Horse	Jockey	Win	Place	Show
7	Fast Fleet Cat	Garcia Alan	$29.20	$12.20	$6.70
12	Sunny Desert	Dominguez Ramon A.	-	$6.30	$4.50
1	Bonatini	Ortiz, Jr. Irad	-	-	$4.20
4	River's End	Carr D	-	-	-

Scratched: T Note (2)

Winning Trainer: Chris J. Englehart – Owner: Wachtel Stable

$1 Trifecta Box Paid $454.50

$2 Exacta (7-12) Paid $181.00

$2 Trifecta (7-12-1) Paid $909.00

$0.10 Superfecta (7-12-1-4) Paid $861.20

$2 Double (4/7) Paid $122.00

$2 Pick 3 (2/4/7) Paid $345.00 (3OF3)

Aquduct Race 6 01/13/2012

The SP column is a key consideration in the assessment of any race. It provides an indication of how many horses are "fast enough to win". FTS's have a better chance for victory when the horses with experience haven't run that fast. In this race. there was only one X in the SP column.Of the 3 FTS horses presented, #5 and #4 had positive WIN Rankings. The $101 Win result below for #4 shows the value of the Rankings on FTS's as the bettors in this race gave the winner no shot but the rankings and odds made it worth a play.

ace 6

#	Horse	Jockey	Win	Place	Show
4	Frisky Warrior	Perez L E	$101.50	$37.00	$14.80
11	Furios Tempo	Studart M	-	$9.30	$4.80
6	Blake Street Bully	Junior Alvarado	-	-	$3.00
10	Timothy's Boy	Carr D	-	-	-

Scratched: Raytessa (8)

Winning Trainer: Ralph D'Alessandro – Owner: Ralph D'Alessandro

$1 Trifecta Box Paid $2,316.00

$2 Exacta (4-11) Paid $985.00

$2 Trifecta (4-11-6) Paid $4,632.00

$0.10 Superfecta (4-11-6-10) Paid $3,858.65

$2 Double (4/4) Paid $230.00

$2 Pick 3 (7/4/4) Paid $6,948.00 (3OF3)

Tampa Bay Race 4 01/13/2012

This is an example of the Triple XXX highlight. Notwithstanding the relatively low Win Ranking, Class, Pace and Speed Profiles aligned with the #2 horse. This type of play is not appropriate at low odds but when presented at 10-1, it merits a wager. It should also be noted that #4, a key horse was scratched from this race.

ace 4

#	Horse	Jockey	Win	Place	Show
2	Kabob	Spieth S	$23.20	$7.80	$4.00
8	Tango Whiskey	Coa D	-	$4.00	$3.00
5	Ben Ben Mechon	Barbaran E	-	-	$3.00
7	Alisa's Engineer	Jurado E	-	-	-
6	Awesome Review	Serpa A	-	-	-

Scratched: Vapor Trace (4)

Winning Trainer: William R Helmbrecht – Owner: Lynda G Lail

$0.50 Pick 3 (1/2/2) Paid $102.60 (3OF3)

$2 Exacta (2-8) Paid $125.00

$0.50 Trifecta (2-8-5) Paid $81.70

$0.10 Superfecta (2-8-5-7) Paid $69.20

$2 Exact 5 (2-8-5-7-6) Paid $5,182.40

$2 Double (2/2) Paid $97.40

Tampa Bay Race6 01/13/2012

Below is an another example of the lone CL X (after scratches). It is usually preferred to see some other confirming factor but class changes can be more significant for maidens. In this case, #6 was moving from a major circuit to Tampa Bay and was coming off a layoff. Again, this factor is best played when the odds offer good value.

ace 6

#	Horse	Jockey	Win	Place	Show
6	Scudero	Cotto, Jr. P L	$27.00	$13.20	$6.80
4	Purincat	Guidry M	-	$3.40	$2.80
10	Delivered	Beaucamp L	-	-	$5.40
7	N. B. A. Money	Goncalves L R	-	-	-

Scratched: Soul of the Moon (11), Manly (12), Rose Brier (13), Rojo Cielo (14)

Winning Trainer: Dennis J Manning – Owner: Dennis J Manning

$0.50 Pick 4 (2/2/2,3,6/6) Paid $2,846.60 (4OF4)

$0.50 Pick 3 (2/6/6) Paid $298.35 (3OF3)

$2 Exacta (6-4) Paid $142.40

$0.50 Trifecta (6-4-10) Paid $307.50

$0.10 Superfecta (6-4-10-7) Paid $191.93

$2 Double (6/6) Paid $113.20

The above examples do not represent all of the highlights of the results for one week of Horsewin Reports but they provide good insight into the type of plays that can be generated with the analysis provided. Also, keep in mind that there are losing results that will be experienced between wins.

Future Blog Posts will cover other topics such as the Reports In-The-Money Selections, Trainer/Jockey Ratings, Key Horse Profiles In Red and Gold and Probabilities with Value.

Streaks are Great for Horseplayers

2011-12-11T19:55:00.001-05:00

Last week I blogged about a 1-1-3-1-1-1 ($17k) Pick 6 sequence that I published for Aqueduct on Sunday December 4, 2011. I commented that someday I hope to publish a cold Pick 6. Today at Hollywood Park, I almost successfully picked a cold Pick 5 from Race 1-5. The rankings that I published were 1-3-1-1-1. The sequence was quite chalky with the exception of Race 4 where my top Pick paid $29. As the same sequence included a Pick 4 from Race 2-5, $550 was available for a small wager.
One of my subscribers wrote immediately that he had cashed.

I will recap the results for the last few days in subsequent posts but I am on a very positive streak at New York, Florida and California tracks. At Hollywood Park, from Friday to Sunday I had 13 top ranked winners from 27 races or about 50%. One can't avoid some chalk because of the smaller fields, but the 13 winners included $30 and $29 payoffs.

Horsewin - William White

Results for Wednesday

2011-12-07T19:49:00.001-05:00

Horsewin Race Selections were profitable at Tampa Bay on Wednesday. Top ranked horses won 5 of 9 races with some reasonably good payoffs as well. Aqueduct and Hollywood Park produced more modest results with 2 top wins each. At all tracks a number of the races produced some good betting opportunities based on rankings and specific betting angles identified in the Horsewin Reports. For example, a key pace angle was presented on a single horse in Race 2 at Hollywood Park. This horse won and paid $61.

I try to emphasize in my analysis and race selections factors that don't always point to favorites and when I am right there have some really good payoffs.

I will write more in the future on a new element that I have developed that identifies horses that fit a "WIN PROFILE" as either a key horse or longshot.

Horsewin Selections Spectacular on December 4, 2011

2011-12-05T19:08:00.000-05:00

Sunday December 4, was one of those days that all handicappers dream of - At Aqueduct WIN Selections were 7/9 with a 2nd and a 3rd. The average odds were close to 4-1. The Pick 6 Sequence was 1-1-3-1-1-1 for $17k. Some day I am going to publish a cold Pick 6 and this is not the first time that I have put out 5 winners in the sequence.

Gulfstream Park was also productive with 5 top winners in 10 races, including a double digit payoff. These results are encouraging as I usually expect GP to take a while to get settled into good form from a Handicapping perspective.

I came back down to earth at Hollywood Park with 3 top wins from 9 races and like Saturday, I had a number of 2nd ranked winners.

Horsewin Reports are available on a 2 day Free Trial at www.horsewin.ca. I believe that I am publishing one of the best non-traditional handicapping selection reports.