King Politics

A Conspiracy In Soccer's World Cup Draw?

kingpolitics@gmail.com (Marvin King) — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 17:07:00 +0000

No matter what the results of today's World Cup draw in South Africa, fans of countries in tough draws will cry "Foul!".

The Supreme Court, The Death Penalty, And Empathy

kingpolitics@gmail.com (Marvin King) — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 17:02:00 +0000

Linda Greenhouse, without a doubt the most astute journalist covering the Supreme Court, has an excellent essay on the selective empathy of the Supreme Court. In other words, the Court recently faced two death penalty cases, and released one defendant from his death sentence for incompetent legal counsel but had no such empathy for another defendant in eerily similar circumstances.

Good News For Obama: Unemployment Version

kingpolitics@gmail.com (Marvin King) — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 16:52:00 +0000

The American economy only lost 11,000 jobs in November. Hardly news for elation, but it is much lower than the 100,000 plus jobs many economists expected the economy to lose. Additionally, the government revised the September and October numbers (this always happens as additional data becomes available) and determined the economy lost far fewer jobs in those months than previously thought. In total, these are the best numbers since December, 2007 when the recession began.

Perfect timing, too, as President Obama continues his Jobs Summit in Allentown, PA, despite his critics seeing it as a PR stunt.

Good News For Obama: Afghanistan Version

kingpolitics@gmail.com (Marvin King) — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 16:42:00 +0000

News that America's Nato allies will (should) chip in an additional 7,000 troops on top of America's additional commitment of 30,000 troops is good news for Obama. Combined with the 60,000 American troops and 40,000 Nato troops already there, the Obama Administration can feel fairly certain they can do a better job of managing security while prepping Afghans to take over when the USA begins withdrawing in 2011. Of course, if the Taliban also surges, the USA will have to stick around a bit longer.

The bigger concern is that the Taliban will lie in wait until U.S. forces withdraw and then attack folks who helped the American effort. Time will tell.

Update
It makes sense that we would expand the use of drones in Afghanistan and Pakistan. After the surge, when American forces begin to withdraw in 2011, expect to see spy drones circling the skies of Afghanistan and Pakistan for years to come.

"Santa, I Want A Firetruck And A Flu Shot!"

kingpolitics@gmail.com (Marvin King) — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 16:44:00 +0000

Trevor Butterworth makes a convincing argument why mall Santa's should be first in line for the H1N1I vaccine.

Cornel West's Biography

kingpolitics@gmail.com (Marvin King) — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 16:38:00 +0000

The Loop's Kam Williams has an informative interview with author, professor and philosopher Dr. Cornel West. West has a new autobiography out, and despite a tepid review, I look forward to his memoir.

Bank Of America Makes Good

kingpolitics@gmail.com (Marvin King) — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 16:32:00 +0000

This is welcome news for Bank of America, Congress, the Obama Administration, and most importantly, to taxpayers. Bank of American announced it will pay back some $45 billion to the U.S. government well ahead of schedule. This frees up BoA from onerous executive pay restrictions imposed by Kenneth Feinberg. More importantly, it signals stability for the banking sector. This should reassure skittish investors. Further, taxpayers should recognize (hopefully) that the Bush and Obama administrations did the right thing in bailing out big banks. As stunning as their incompetence was pre-2008 regarding the housing market, we need these big banks to succeed. They truly are the engines of American and global commerce.

Have Style?

kingpolitics@gmail.com (Marvin King) — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 16:26:00 +0000

I like style, perhaps, because I don't have any. But, I do like reading articles on style and decoration. So, without much ado, if you're into style, you might like this article about a newlywed couple in New York that received free advice from a home decorator. We've never paid for a decorator and I doubt we ever will. The one piece of good advice I can pass on though is that you probably have too much crap in your house and it'll look and feel better if you ditch start ditching stuff.

A Bipartisan Commission To Tackle The Deficit?

kingpolitics@gmail.com (Marvin King) — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 19:34:00 +0000

In theory, it's a good idea (WSJ). Put both Republicans and Democrats in a room together for two months and tell them they cannot come out until they have a solution of tax increases and spending cuts that balance the federal budget over the next 10 years or so. Sounds easy, doesn't it?

It only works if the Commission's findings are not subject to debate, amendment, filibuster or any alteration on the floors of the House and the Senate. The question, then, is, "Will the Commission have teeth?"

Colorado Republicans Have Tea

kingpolitics@gmail.com (Marvin King) — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 19:29:00 +0000

The Colorado GOP, seeking to stem the tide of several consecutive election defeats are devising a statement of principles (WSJ), which they'll encourage candidates to adhere to. The purpose of this is to stem the defection of hardcore Republicans to either the Conservative Party (as we saw in New York's November special election) or discourage tea-baggers from mounting primary challenges to established Republican incumbents or candidates handpicked by the establishment.

Analysis
Reminds me of Newt Gingrich's Contract with America in 1994, which itself was heavily modeled after Ronald Reagan's 1985 State of the Union address. It met with great success, but this move seems borne out of desperation. After all, there already is a Republican Platform.

Charts Are Back: "Daddy, Where Do Democrats Come From?"

kingpolitics@gmail.com (Marvin King) — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 18:41:00 +0000

I'll tell you in a series of four charts. The basis of this post comes from work I've been doing for my Southern Politics course. I've explained to the class how the Republican Party has evolved into a Southern Party over the last twenty years, but I had no visual evidence of this. Well, here's some evidence.

First, we see that over the last twenty years, the Democratic Party actually appears somewhat bipartisan as 48% of its House members were Democratic. That's balance. Especially when we compare the South to New England, where 75% of its members have been Democratic. Conversely, the six Plains states are remarkably Republican, much more so than the South. And, yes, I use the Confederacy to define the South, not the Census Bureau's definition. In my view, if you didn't secede, you're not Southern.

But, this only tells us where Democrats have come from, in the aggregate, over the last 20 years. It's better if we break it down by Congress. In the second graph, we see that New England hasn't always sent 75% of its' delegation to Congress as Democrats. Instead, we see a steady up tick. IN the 101st Congress, New England showed more balance, a 60:40 ration, then a steady upward creep, culminating in 100% of its' delegates being Democratic for the 111th Congress. Conversely, if you look at the dark, red line, the Plains states, you see something different. Perfect balance, then Democrats fall off the cliff in the 104th Congress. This, of course, is when Newt Gingrich-led Republicans regained the majority in the House after forty plus years in the wilderness. The Mountain West and South also severely experimented with Republicanism during this stage, yet the large Black population in the South, kept (and keeps) the South from becoming wholly Republican. The Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and West were never in serious likelihood of becoming Republican. Obviously, if the GOP wants to grow, New England and the Mid-Atlantic are areas of concern; I'd advise the GOP to concentrate on the Midwest and Mountain West.

Still curious, I wanted to know how Southern the Republican caucus had become. But, first, we'll examine the Democratic side. What strikes me when I look at the next chart is the remarkable balance of the Democratic caucus. This might make reaching intraparty deals a difficult proposition, but it's probably better than the Republican alternative, which I'll get to shortly. In the 101st Congress, four different regions (West, South, Midwest and Mid-Atlantic) each provided at least 14% of the Democratic caucus. No one regional delegation clearly dominated. By the 111th Congress, the Democrats (no doubt, thanks Rahm Emanuel's efforts) had achieved even more balance. While the Southern Democratic share shrunk from 30% to 23%m there are still four regions comprising at least 18% of the Democratic caucus and the delegations from New England and and the Mountain West are larger. That's balance.

Now, let's examine the House GOP. First thing I notice is that in the 101st Congress, the Republican Party had commendable balance. Four different regions comprised at least 14% of the Republican House caucus. But, and quite noticeable, is that by the 111th Congress, only three regions comprised that much (South, West and Midwest). The Republican Party reached oblivion in New England (0%) and the Republican delegation from the Mid-Atlantic was cut in half (18% to 9%). What caused this change? The Southernization of the Republican Party. Southerners went from 22% of the GOP caucus to 41% in just twenty years. In so doing, Southerners pushed out New Englanders and those from the Mid-Atlantic.

Your Thanksgiving Holiday Reading

kingpolitics@gmail.com (Marvin King) — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 20:29:00 +0000

Politics
John Nichols says today's Republican Party has become so ideologically rigid that even Ronald Reagan would fail their purity test. Why? People forget, but even Reagan raised taxes. He recognized fiscal insanity had its limits. Today's Republicans consider it heresy to even mention tax increases. Look, it doesn't matter who raised government spending to obscene levels. The fact is, that's what we have. The question is, "How do we get our fiscal house in order?" Two answers (maybe three): 1. Cut spending, 2. Raise taxes, 3. Both. We must do #3. But, Republicans make that next to impossible because they won't raise taxes and Democrats are too reluctant to cut spending. Meet in the middle, people.

Remember South Carolina's Mark Sanford? Probably not, but plenty in South Carolina would like to forget him too. The disgraced governor faces 37 potential ethics charges. Just resign already.

Health Care
Senate Dems will likely tweak the particulars of their health care bill before it goes very far. It really comes down to one man. How likely will Joe Lieberman stick to his pledge to defeat any bill with a public option?

Macroeconomics
A lingering (and quite) large problem for the macroeconomy are the 25% of Americans that are underwater with their mortgage - meaning they owe more on their home than it is worth. In other grim news, revisions show that the economy did not grow as fast the last quarter (3%) as previous estimates suggested. But, that's not all bad. Slow growth will keep the Fed from raising interest rates, so we're not likely to see the Feds clamp down on nascent growth too soon. Either way, America's fiscal situation will improve by a teensy-tiny bit as tax cheats come clean.

Pop-up shops for quick sales and low overhead are all the rage.

Education
The White House, generally supportive of public school reform, took a dodge when it comes to getting rid of unqualified teachers. Tsk, tsk. Speaking of teaching the little ones, here's an essay on why we should teach evolution to the tykes. The sad part is that this is something we still have to debate.

As a professor, I utilize the tried-and-true lecture method. Some new school folks prefer touchy-feely crap. Not me. Adam Kotsko writes in defense of the lecture.

Miscellaneous
At the Obama White House, the President has been visited by movie stars, bailed out CEO's and lobbyists - much like at my house.

A California judge puts the Obama administration on the hot spot, insisting that it allow a gay lawyer who was legally married in California, put her wife down for federal health care benefits. The administration is balking. What to do?

Obama will never be accused of acting rashly when it comes to matters of war. Unlike his predecessor who went with his gut, Obama will go with his head on the decision of whether or not to send additional troops to Afghanistan. We'll find out on Dec. 1.

Sure, Oprah will end her "gabfest" in 2011, but she'll probably be richer for it.

New York is set to turn D.U.I.'s with a child in the car into a serious felony offense. Don't do it.

Finally, if you get lost traveling over the Turkey weekend and you go online to get directions, you can probably thank this guy for setting you on the right path.

Blogging will be slow over the holidays. Enjoy your Thanksgiving.

The Stimulus And Minorities

kingpolitics@gmail.com (Marvin King) — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 20:01:00 +0000

Time magazine suggests minorities are not getting their fair share of stimulus projects. Maybe. But, I'm not really sure how they'd measure that. The metric used by Time is an example of sloppy metrics. Their story focuses on the anecdotal example of the lack of mass transit funding in Miami. Yes, they could use more mass transit to serve low-income areas in Miami, but prima facie, this does not indicate minorities aren't benefiting from stimulus projects. What's to say that minorities aren't heavily employed in the stimulus projects in Miami expanding the highway infrastructure?

Obama and Congress face an FDR/New Deal-style problem. Minorities are in a really bad way this recession, yet, unemployment is so high, the government is compelled to help everyone, no favorites (ostensibly at least - so I won't discuss Wall Street here).

2010 Governor's Races

kingpolitics@gmail.com (Marvin King) — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 19:46:00 +0000

Look for the GOP to use the 2010 governor's races as a launching pad to retake Congress and the White House in 2012. While it is possible Republicans could retake the House in 2010, smart strategists realize it is more probable to gain 15 or 20 seats in 2010 and the whole enchilada in 2012.

Republican optimism rests in recent gubernatorial victories in New Jersey and Virginia.
However, it must be noted that the party not in control of the White House has won the last nine governor's races in Virginia, so it's hard for me to see an immediate connection between Virgina 2009 and Congress 2010. Same with New Jersey. John Corzine was an embattled incumbent with more scars than friends. If the GOP couldn't defeat him, it would really say more about Republican ineptitude than anything else.

The indicators to watch are economic. Unemployment will probably plateau for awhile, but as long as inflation remains in check and other indicator stats indicate growth (i.e. GDP and housing starts), then voters will likely not punish Democrats too much.

Catholic Church Hypocrisy

kingpolitics@gmail.com (Marvin King) — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 16:17:00 +0000

A Catholic Bishop has barred Dem. Rep. Patrick Kennedy from taking communion because of his pro-choice views. Whether you are pro-life or pro-choice is besides the point on this issue. There are numerous issues the Catholic Church takes positions on, abortion being just one of them (albeit important).

Analysis
Since when is the Catholic Church, or any church for that matter, unilaterally deciding what beliefs its members must hold? It's one thing to suggest guidance, it's quite another to insist upon absolute fealty. Quite frankly, I'm sure you can find plenty of Catholic parishioners who use birth control or any other form of contraceptive. And, just to be sure, there is even debate within the Church itself about the proper position to hold. It is hard for me to see how this isn't straight up politics.

Then again, were it not for immigration from Latin America, the Catholic church would be shrinking in America. If the Catholic Church wants to continue its policy of intolerance, let it.

Gary Johnson, Libertarian, For President?

kingpolitics@gmail.com (Marvin King) — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 17:29:00 +0000

H/T: Signifying Nothing

Former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson (1995-2002), looks like he might launch a 2012 presidential bid. He's an erstwhile Republican, but really a libertarian. His odds would be long, but he's a bit more, ahem... settled than Ron Paul, so his odds would be better. Who knows? Perhaps if Americans feel four years of Obama has been an exercise in government overreach, a candidate of Johnson's persuasion will appeal.

Quick Hits At The Loop

kingpolitics@gmail.com (Marvin King) — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 17:06:00 +0000

Quick hits you should read at The Loop:

My employer, the University of Mississippi, played host to unwelcome guests, the KKK, this weekend.

In the meantime, Haley Barbour is looking to save a few bucks by merging the three HBCU's in the state.

Speaking of HBCU's, Lincoln University is telling fat kids to take a course on fitness.

A bit more on HBCU's. Their low graduation rates are cause for alarm.

Liberals see Obama as a lighter brother, while conservatives see him in a darker light. Literally.

Black students do better in small classes (probably all students for that matter), so recent moves by California - resulting from budget pressures - aren't good.

Remember the Pennsylvania swim club that kicked out the black and brown kids last summer? Now, it's bankrupt. Too bad, so sad.

Kids all over California are upset at UCLA's 32% hike in fees. That's steep.

Nsenga Burton is upset that too few Black men are following Obama's lead.

Thankful for health care access, not for reform opponents

kingpolitics@gmail.com (Marvin King) — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 17:02:00 +0000

America is a bountiful country, and I am so thankful to live here. We have the best of so much and much to be proud of. We have a fantastic fighting force of volunteers who put their lives on the line to defend us from enemies.

I am so thankful for the fantastic collection of colleges and universities that are without a doubt the best in the entire world. I am lucky enough to have attended a few and taught at a few more, and I know firsthand the value of an affordable public education.

Read the rest at The Loop.

Bad News On The Debt

kingpolitics@gmail.com (Marvin King) — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 20:30:00 +0000

Ever wonder why politicians and economists spend so much time worrying about the debt, even as said politicians increase the debt? Well, the interest on the debt by 2019 could total $700 billion a year. That's just the interest. Forget the principal. The federal government is no better (in this sense) than homeowners that took risky subprime mortgages. Good grief.

Fan of Curb Your Enthusiasm?

kingpolitics@gmail.com (Marvin King) — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 20:28:00 +0000

Here is the New York Times' review of reviews on the season finale/Seinfeld Reunion episode. I'm no television critic, but it was one of the funnier episodes I've seen on tv in awhile.

Obama's Poll Numbers Down: Does It Matter?

kingpolitics@gmail.com (Marvin King) — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 20:15:00 +0000

While two separate polls show Barack Obama's poll numbers dipping below 50 percent, the real question we need to ask is, "Does it matter?" Yes and no. Yes, because Americans have short-term memories and have already forgotten what a precipice the economy was on this time last year as the lame-duck Bush years ended. Even though Obama did not cause the crisis, he now has ownership of the crisis and must soon get results or Americans will see him as ineffective. No, because nearly every American president also sees a decline in popularity as their honeymoon ends. Now, if Congress passes health care reform, then Obama and congressional Democrats will be able to turn to voters in 2010 and say they have delivered reform - keep them in office.

My Thoughts On Ole Miss From An Austrian Perspective

kingpolitics@gmail.com (Marvin King) — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 20:11:00 +0000

Nearly two months ago, a reporter from Der Standard, Austria's leading newspaper, visited Ole Miss to do a story on how Mississippi has (or has not changed) since Barack Obama was elected president. If you can read German, here is the story. If you cannot, here is the (loosely) translated English version. It's a hoot.

Would It Be So Bad If America Became A Little More European?

kingpolitics@gmail.com (Marvin King) — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:00:00 +0000

Bruce Bartlett, former Reagan official, doesn't think so. In fact, Bartlett advocates copying Europe on some important matters, most importantly our method of taxation. Contrary to conservative thought, while Europeans tax more, their quality of life and economic growth prospects match the United States. Bartlett also links to a new book I'm hearing good things about, The Narcissism of Minor Differences: How Europe and America are Alike.

Fox News: There You Go Again

kingpolitics@gmail.com (Marvin King) — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 16:33:00 +0000

Innocent mistake or sinister plot to make Sarah Palin look more popular than she really is? Once again, Fox News has been caught showing incorrect footage. Two times in one week Fox has been caught. Innocent mistake or something sinister. I report, you decide.

Are Americans Happy?

kingpolitics@gmail.com (Marvin King) — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 16:17:00 +0000

For whatever reason, Americans report being happier this year than last. Why could that be given that unemployment keeps climbing? Could it be the rebounding stock market? Looming health care reform? Are people looking forward to the Vancouver Olympics? Perhaps it's because Americans now believe the worst is over and recovery will begin soon (albeit in fits and starts). Really, I'm not sure. Are you happy?