King Politics

Issues: 8.18.11: The Help, Helping Obama and Cognitive Dissonance and the Tea Party

kingpolitics@gmail.com (Marvin King) — Thu, 18 Aug 2011 13:35:00 +0000

I have not read The Help. I have not seen the movie and I don't intend to. But, there's seem to be a wide chasm between those who find the movie inspirational and those who detest its premise. Care to guess what that chasm is?

On to politics.

Democrats

Democratic consultant extraordinaire Stanley Greenberg explains why voters tune out Democrats. Greenberg makes an astute observation that, " If Democrats are going to be encumbered by that link, they need to change voters’ feelings about government." Some agree, some don't. I agree. So much in fact that this is at the heart of my manuscript, Democratic Dixie: How Democrats Can Win in the South (currently in search of a publisher). More on this later.

Drew Westen argues that Democrats need some good old-fashioned Obama passion. The essay is a classic case of liberal criticism aimed toward the president, but it seems that Westen misses on the fact that Obama is actually not that liberal. An analysis of Obama's inaugural address get to the point of Obama's centrist tendencies and Matt Dickinson at Presidential Power: A Nonpartisan Analysis of Presidential Politics examines the real story of Obama's presidency. H/t: Monkey Cage. Despite Westen's criticisms, few Democrats are eager for a Democratic challenger to Obama. They like him. That should count for something.

Jack Goldstone also passes along advise to Obama on how to negotiate.

More important than this nit-picking over Obama is whether or not weak Democrats enable hard-line Republicans.

Tea Party

Given that the Tea Party suffers from cognitive dissonance, I'm not sure how the Tea Party can be right - and doing everything wrong. Well, I can see how they're doing everything wrong.

Speaking of the Tea Party, what beliefs predict a Tea Partier?

Perry

Karl Rove takes Perry to task for his "treason" comment. Perry's record on education is...questionable. Despite claims by its proponents, tort reform in Texas has not brought the promised savings. Here are eight things you should know about Gov. Perry.

Infrastructure

Done properly transit systems can make money, but the political climate on the right won't accept that possibility.

While Governor Rick Perry has made some common-sense suggestions regarding water infrastructure he hasn't stuck his neck out, preferring austerity politics over practical policy.

Even though more and more Americans are coming around to the idea that global warming is a scourge we must tackle, there are hidden costs and benefits of clean air.

Miscellaneous

For academics, The Monkey Cage asks if "blogging helps your professional reputation?" Given that no one actually reads my blog, I'm fairly certain the answer for me is "no!"

Issues: 8.17.11, Part 2: Assess political blame correctly and Tea Party babies, Perry's chances

kingpolitics@gmail.com (Marvin King) — Wed, 17 Aug 2011 14:03:00 +0000

What has bothered me tremendously in this summer of politics is the blame game. I'm not at all comfortable with blaming or crediting both sides equally in the debate over who is to blame for putting this country in a fiscal mess and who is to be given credit for trying to devise real solutions. Consider, Obama and Bush's effects on the deficit, or the budget deals of Reagan, Bush,Clinton and Obama. No surprise the GOP is on the defensive over its fiscal policy. Consider this when trying to distort the truth about who pays taxes.

The Infrastructurist blames America's economic decline to our inability to raise the gas tax. Here is pushback to Paul Ryan's claims that 1990's welfare reform was a resounding success.

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Given the CEO/employee pay gap, no wonder Americans want more attention paid to increasing economic mobility, which continues to lag that of other Western economies.

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The political betting markets like Perry's chances to be GOP nominee in 2012. Normal political science modeling of future presidential elections typically gives a heavy weight to unemployment in predicting winners. Given that, the odds aren't good for President Obama, however, others suggest disposable income is what you should consider and how the economy fares in the last year prior to the election. A lot to consider.

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Miscellaneous

Do you like the Google deal? I'm ambivalent. I pay way too much to AT&T, so unless Google's deal brings down prices for me, which it won't, I'm agnostic.

Here is how the debt crisis unfurled overseas. H/T: Ezra. It's the best video you'll see today. Promise.

And, finally, agrad student rap? Yes, you probably shouldn't watch. H/T: The Monkey Cage.

Issues: 8.17.11: Everyday Racism & Black Geography

kingpolitics@gmail.com (Marvin King) — Wed, 17 Aug 2011 13:23:00 +0000

The racial wealth gap is partly a result of continuing systemic racism in America's k-12 schools. For those of you doubtful of how prevalent everyday racism is, please watch this video. It's several years old, but you'll find few black people who would disagree with the findings in this video.

Of course, that's not all there is. Recent research showed that black women with lighter skin color received lighter prison sentences than black women with darker skin color. Luckily, the systemic racism of our parents and grandparents (and it is there whether you want to acknowledge it or not - you'll find few whites who will admit the protested the Brown decision or the Civil Rights and Voting Rights Acts of the 1960's, but they know they protested equal opportunity for blacks) is decreasing. By most accounts, systemic racism eludes Millennials. Understandably, James Anderson's family would disagree. You will remember he was black man in Jackson, Mississippi, who was the tragic victim of a hate crime when white teens beat him senseless then ran him over with a truck.

Newgeography has a post up on changes in black geography. From the article, "we see not a single-minded return to the South, but a complex mixture of shrinking and growing regions in various parts of the country. This includes some surprising places, like Minneapolis-St. Paul, which was one of the top ten metros in the country for total black population growth, and also saw its black population share grow strongly."

Miscellaneous

The Onion asks, "Why are we skipping church?"

Issues: 8.16.11: Problems with Perry

kingpolitics@gmail.com (Marvin King) — Tue, 16 Aug 2011 13:56:00 +0000

Blogs and reporters are learning that covering Rick Perry (pictured) will be fun, entertaining and interesting. As a Texan and long-time subscriber of Texas Monthly I remember this article from February of 2010 asking if Rick Perry would be a presidential candidate. More recently, here's a story about Perry as the Great Campaigner.

While Perry is a three-termer he benefited in 2002 from his opponent, Tony Sanchez, being an exceptionally weak candidate. In 2006, he won with just 39% of the vote. In 2010 against a quality candidate he managed a quality victory with 55% of the vote. See his electoral history here.

Concerning Perry's performance, you can learn about Texas's economic performance, whether Perry solved Texas's budgetary crises with "sleight-of-hand", how Perry benefited from Big Energy, Perry's record on the environment, Medicaid, and why Texas has the highest percentage of residents uninsured. Paul Krugman (NYT) is unimpressed with Perry's economic record.

As far as Perry's main GOP competition goes, Michele Bachmann was apparently for federal pork projects for her district before she was against federal pork spending for everyone else's congressional districts. Beth Reinhard of The Atlantic says we shouldn't worry too much about Bachmann, that the real race is Romney v. Perry.

Not sure who Obama would rather run against, but I'm betting they'd prefer Bachmann or Perry as it would be easier to focus on a few of their wilder quotes like this comparing printing more money as treasonous. They will definitely accuse Perry as being a "carbon copy of the failed policies of the past." No doubt he'll attack Romney's character and business background.

Does Ames matter?

Joshua Tucker writes that the Iowa Straw poll maybe doesn't actually matter. Nate Silver (NYT) disagrees.

Miscellaneous:

While it's not a state, D.C. wins the title of "state" that is most economically confident.

Perhaps the most tweeted story of yesterday is Warren Buffett's op-ed (NYT) asking for Congress to stop "coddling the super-rich," especially given how average wages are falling.

Issues: 8.15.11: Political Compromise, Taxes on the young, Apple, Carla Bley, War on the Unemployed

kingpolitics@gmail.com (Marvin King) — Mon, 15 Aug 2011 13:07:00 +0000

Matt Bai (NYT) believes the pandering spree on display at last week's Republican debate will repel voters. I agree that it will repel some voters, but I also believe those answers were calculated and vetted. While it seems preposterous that a sitting GOP president would reject $10 in spending cuts for every $1 in tax increases, what is important to remember is that 1) pandering works (candidates wouldn't do it if they and their pollsters didn't feel otherwise), and 2) whoever wins the nomination will have plenty of time to backpedal in the general election, and 3) only the media and hardcore party activists are even paying attention right now.

So, even though 23 separate polls show Americans support higher taxes to reduce the deficit, getting actual compromise is much more difficult. Compromise is an ideal that Americans profess to, but we don't actually like compromise when it comes to sacrificing something we care about.

Speaking of spending, here is a very quick primer on what spending is mandatory and thus exceedingly difficult to change when compared to discretionary spending.

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Reihan Salam argues that taxes for young professional should be cut. Hmmm....I'd rather we just make college cheaper so that fewer students graduate with crushing debt. I would do this by having states not neglect their obligations to higher education.

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It is tough enough being unemployed, but several states are employing policies that make it even harder and even harder still in the future.

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Miscellaneous

Carla Bley (pictured) and Steve Swallow on piano jazz.

What Apple can learn from the Pentagon. It had to do with building flow.

Don't park in this bike lane.

Issues: 8.14.11: Pawlenty's Out, Pledges, Why Ames Matters

kingpolitics@gmail.com (Marvin King) — Sun, 14 Aug 2011 19:20:00 +0000

Tim Pawlenty is the first major casualty of the 2012 presidential contest. The two-term Minnesota governor was too moderate for the very right-leaning socially conservative base that made up the Iowa straw poll.

Given that a prominent Iowa conservative, Bob Vander Plaats insists that all Republicans sign an anti-gay rights pledge, it is no wonder that the most anti-gay rights candidate, Michele Bachmann won the straw poll. By the way, what is it with Republicans and their pledges? It does go a long way in explaining their intransigent positions...after all, they've signed a pledge, they can't possibly, you know...negotiate with the other side. Actually, one Republican, former congressman Joe Scarborough, believes Michele Bachmann is not up to the presidency.

Scarborough's wailing aside, there is plenty of reason to believe that the results of the Ames straw poll matter (NYT). My thoughts are that Ames matters because this is when activists really start to pay attention. We know that quadrennial voters will not pay too much attention until later this year, but that discounts the impact of activists. They are, after all, the people who the work for the campaigns and donate money. Their interest in now piqued because there is a somewhat-official pecking order now. Granted, Mitt Romney and Rick Perry stayed away, but it's official now that Ron Paul's voters are back, and Herman Cain, Rick Santorum, and most likely Jon Huntsman are all just stage extras in this play.

Frank Bruni (NYT) bemoans the same old stale and tired campaigning whereby candidates tried to out-Right each other on abortion and gay rights and nary a word on Europe's debt crisis or actual solutions to America's economic woes.

Issues: 8.10.11: Supercommittee Will Fail, Taxes Will Go Up, Sheryl Sandberg, Wealth Gap

kingpolitics@gmail.com (Marvin King) — Wed, 10 Aug 2011 15:59:00 +0000

It's a tough place for women to reach the upper echelons of power, but

Sh eryl Sandberg (pictured) is trying to "upend Silicon Valley's

male-dominated culture."

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By putting Rep. Jeb Hensarling of Texas on the Supercommittee, Speaker John Boehner has doomed the supercommittee to failure. Maybe he's done on it purpose. Boehner know that Hensarling is controlled by Tea Party and will never submit to tax hikes even though Americans want them as part of a grand bargain (expect Hensarling to offer more cuts to WIC). Boehner also is old enough to remember what happens when Republicans push too far and yield too little. By guaranteeing that the Supercommittee will fail, Boehner guarantees that the debt-deal trigger will squeeze.

I wouldn't go as far as Froma Harrop in calling Republicans "economic terrorists." Say something like that you have to defend yourself.

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What makes negotiating with Republicans difficult for Democrats is that they are more willing to compromise and less willing to take extremist positions like taking the debt ceiling hostage. However, at the end of 2012, the shoe will be on the other foot. The Bush era tax cuts expire. By doing nothing, Democrats can get the revenue increases they did not get this go-around. Odds are they will relent and keep the tax cuts for Americans earning under $250k.

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Wealth gaps are everywhere. The Economist talks up the white/non-white wealth gap. Part of is due to the lack of property ownership of older generations of black and Hispanic Americans. More ominous is the widening of the gap since 2008. Here is Racism Review's thoughts on the wealth gap, focusing on the historical antecedents that allowed the gap to get so big to begin with.

Of course, the gender gap is depressing as always. And to snarky critics out there of this research, pregnancy only explains so much of the gap.

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Conveniently, Michelle Bachmann defends pork when it is in her congressional district.

Issues: August 9, 2011: Bad McDonald's, Email style, Hunger & Medicaid,

kingpolitics@gmail.com (Marvin King) — Tue, 09 Aug 2011 14:07:00 +0000

Here's a tragic story of a young man fired from his job at a Chicagoland McDonald's because he went to be with his son's mother while making funeral arrangements. In response, my friend, Lenny McAllister, was fired from his job at WVON in Chicago for calling for a boycott.

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As a teacher, I receive lots of student email. The vast majority is tersely written, with bad grammar and in an manner indicating that most students assume I can identify them (even though they do not sign their name and their email address is skaterockerbieberrapiscoolhotmama4358@yousuck.com). What many fail to realize is that email communication is often a first impression, especially for large section classes. However, we all have an email style, mine is quite formal. What is your email style and what does it say about you?

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With a stalled economic recovery, more Americans need food assistance. This makes given that half of all Americans are financially fragile. In my classes, inspired by the work of Martin Gilens, I talk about media portrayals of the deserving and undeserving poor. Here is a story on the deserving poor. One of the great debates between the political parties is who needs help and who does not. Democrats are inclined, for political and moral reasons, to support Medicaid and stories like this illustrating how Medicaid works and the evidence that social insurance programs keep millions out of poverty and bemoaning reports like this suggesting that some states will do everything possible to weaken Medicaid.

Yet, while aid to individuals is on the chopping block, the amount of Wall Street welfare is truly staggering. H/T: Ezra.

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Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker is making some questionable transportation decisions. Interesting that he would embark on any large scale government project given its reliance on government employees to see projects through fruition, especially since they are so overpaid. Of course, they are not really overpaid.

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Should the USA help China be a worse polluter?

Issues: August 8, 2011: Who Pays Taxes and why Mississippians should hug Delaware-living people

kingpolitics@gmail.com (Marvin King) — Mon, 08 Aug 2011 20:31:00 +0000

Because I hadn't blogged in awhile I am going to touch on some stuff that that I've had bookmarked for some time. I'll do my best to make it fresh.

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All Mississippians should give all Delawarians(?) a hug. According to this chart at The Economist, residents of Delaware (that''s much easier) provided much more to the federal government than it received, whereas residents of Mississippi where much less giving. Perhaps, it means Mississippi's congressional delegation is that much more effective. No. That's not the answer. More plausibly is the fact that Mississippi is quite poor and relies on federal transfers to pay bills.

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The Supreme Court has sided with one of Arizona's immigration laws. The state requires business to verify the immigration status of its workforce. If businesses knowingly and repeatedly hire non-legal citizens they can have their licences revoked, which is essentially the death penalty for businesses. For members of the left who argued that government should punish businesses as much as it punished individuals, you get your wish. But, won't this just make life harder for undocumented workers? They'll continue to find work, but it will be even more under-the-table than it already was. I see "Immigrant Abuse" headlines coming out of Arizona in the next 12-18 months.

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Remember the big tornadoes from this spring that wreaked havoc across Alabama and Missouri? The Infrastructurist asks if climate change is the cause. It is hard to pinpoint blame of any singular event on climate change; the majority evidence either says it is too soon to tell or that climate change increases the conditions that brew strong storms. People who believe the former usually don't want to acknowledge the political consequences if the people who believe the latter are right.

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Early indications show that health care reform is working. The number of young, healthy adults finding coverage is up and so is the number of small businesses with fewer than ten employees offering coverage to their workers.

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I love this photo at Landscape+Urbanism. Wouldn't work be more fun if this is how you could get down a flight of steps?

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If you've bought into the Republican rhetoric about how the poor don't pay taxes, check out Jack Goldstone's post on who actually pays taxes and why the GOP wants some tax cuts to expire, but others.

Issues: 8.5.11: Politically-Polarized Twitter

kingpolitics@gmail.com (Marvin King) — Fri, 05 Aug 2011 15:59:00 +0000

I've been away for awhile, but I'm back and hopefully I can sustain the blog on a regular basis. I have written the first draft of a manuscript entitled Democratic Dixie: How Democrats Can Win the South. In the text, I explain the steps Southern Democratic Party Organizations (SDPO's) need to take to become viable in the long-term. I am now searching for a publisher while continuing to make edits to the manuscript. With luck, it will be in print sometime next year.

On to the issues.

Political scientists ask, "Is Twitter politically polarized?" What do you think is the answer? Findings indicate that "cross-ideological interactions may reinforce pre-existing in-group/out-group identities, exacerbating the problem of political polarization."

If you are into serious policy/political studies, you might want to bookmark Jonathan Bernstein's "A Plain Blog About Politics" and Jack Goldstone's "New Population Bomb."

I've had my head staring at a computer screen all summer, but somehow I missed this story about Exxon's great huge oil leak in Yellowstone. It took the Big Oil company twice as long to plug the leak as they initially told federal investigators.

Speaking of environmental disasters, Michael "Brownie" Brown disses on former president Bush in his tell-all memoir, Deadly Indifference: The Perfect (Political) Storm. Brown rightly concedes he was in over his head, but he also argues that Bush's neglect was a bigger problem. I doubt we'll see those two sitting together at a Texas Rangers game anytime soon.

Who does USA Today hire to write headlines? While the story is worthy of discussion, the headline, "Wealth plays out differently by race" is as insightful as writing, "The Sun is Hot!" Anyway...the thesis of the article is that higher-income blacks and Hispanics are more likely to reside in lower-middle class neighborhoods than their white counterparts. The classic text in this field is Denton and Massey's American Apartheid. For more analysis on the subject, especially as it pertains to gender, head over to Mariko Chang's website. Of course, not everyone is in the same boat. Here's an interview with Ursula Burns (pictured), the XEROX CEO, who is the first African American female CEO of a Fortune 500 company.

Miscellaneous:

Google's doodles.

Issues: May 31, 2011: Chrysler, WIC, Texas Redistricting

kingpolitics@gmail.com (Marvin King) — Tue, 31 May 2011 13:07:00 +0000

Living up to their campaign mantra to reduce spending, GOP freshman are asking for millions in defense spending not requested by Obama. Hypocrisy in the name of national defense is still hypocrisy.

In Texas, Republicans, who control all levers of power in the Lone Star state, appear unable to develop their own redistricting map. This means it will likely end up in the courts. Since Texas will gain four seats in the 2012 congressional elections, this serves as a disappointment to the House GOP who expect Texas Republicans to produce a map leading to a bigger GOP Conference.

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Last week, Obama took a "victory lap" to celebrate Chrysler's retirement of its government debt.

While the focus on Paul Ryan's budget was on Medicare, it's also clear that the Republican plan would balance the budget by cutting $832 million from the Women, Infants and Children program.

Issues: May 27, 2011

kingpolitics@gmail.com (Marvin King) — Fri, 27 May 2011 16:01:00 +0000

Read about this photo here. And, yes, it is a photo, not a painting.

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With the Donald out, Sarah Palin's signals, such as a tour of the East Coast suggest a run is more likely than not (NYT). Palin doesn't seem like an ideal candidate. By all accounts, she is incredibly thin-skinned and would melt under the scrutiny. Second, she has lucrative gigs that she'd have to forgo. Third, she has no appeal to the middle. It's a lost cause.

What else is a lost cause will be any Republican presidential candidates that believe in man-made climate change. They're all anti-environment now. One man who used to be an environmental supporter is Newt Gingrich, who has now redefined his standing among Republicans.

Demonstrating once again their commitment to bipartisanship, Senate Republicans have blocked Obama from making recess appointments. This is truly a new low.

Texas Governor Rick Perry considers joining the GOP fray for the White House.

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Melissa Harris-Perry takes to task Cornel West for his pouting relationship with Obama.

Issues: May 18, 2011: An Unraveling America, Without Skills and More $ for Big Oil

kingpolitics@gmail.com (Marvin King) — Wed, 18 May 2011 19:57:00 +0000

Charles Krauthammer, the dean of understated punditry, says Newt Gingrich's biggest problem is himself - and the revolving credit line at Tiffany's (NYT). One man looking to fill the inevitable Newt void will be Tim Pawlenty who is getting more looks as a decent, sane, low-key presidential contender. Another GOP'er who warrants a long look is former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman. Gov. Huntsman greatest asset and Gingrich's greatest weakness is the ability to keep his thoughts to himself, so his views are unknown. If you're a political rival that makes him dangerous.

Those not getting looks will be those who don't use condoms.

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Lindsay Graham is right that the vote on Big Oil tax breaks is all about politics. It won't do anything to Graham, but it could hurt vulnerable Republicans. Senate Democrats know they'll need all the help they can get given they must defend 24 seats. Don't let anyone tell you they know which party will control the Senate after the 2012 elections. When no is making bets on it at Intrade it's probably a toss-up.

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Part of the debate over Paul Ryan's Medicare privatization/voucher scheme is that implicitly states that Medicare recipients are on welfare. Yet, even though it does redistribute dollars to those who need it - that's what welfare does, after all - few people on Medicare conceptualize themselves as being welfare recipients. They're entitled to it! Just as importantly, the idea that privatizing Medicare will improve cost control is "faith-based analysis."

More importantly, by focusing on specific programs, Ryan's Republicans keep the focus off their anti-tax position, which is "crumbling under the weight of deficits," so says Bruce Bartlett.

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Roger Selbert asks if the cultural fabric of America is "unraveling?" It depends on your vantage point. I imagine that to every generation, as it ages, looks out and has reason to both be optimistic and pessimistic about the future.

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The South has a lot of Hard-Pressed Democrats who don't trust government, don't trust business and are kind of upset with the hand life dealt them. Improving their lives should be the priority of Southern Democratic Party Organizations.

James J. Heckman says improving skills is the way forward, for everybody, but especially minority males.

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Miscellaneous

1. Aaron Renn recommends that sates stop fighting each other. For instance, the business war between Kansas and Missouri is just downright silly.

2. Mark Thoma remains concerned that the media has tired of the unemployed.

3. Next time you get pulled over, just say "sorry."

4. Stan Collender argues that Dems have the upper hand on the debt ceiling debate.

Issues: May 17, 2011: Trump, Gingrich, Palin, Financial Literacy & Detroit

kingpolitics@gmail.com (Marvin King) — Tue, 17 May 2011 13:33:00 +0000

Now that Trump is out of the GOP presidential primaries, Iowa Republicans must find a new headliner for their fundraiser. Shouldn't be hard. Newt Gingrich would love the opportunity to rehabilitate his reputation

It is important to see that he too supports the individual mandate that Mitt Romney is backpedaling from. When Gingrich is in Iowa, or elsewhere for that matter, he would be well advised to stick to policy and not make barely concealed racially loaded statements like Obama is the "food stamp" president.

You shouldn't be surprised that Gingrich would articulate a position based on demeaning an out-group. That's actually what Sarah Palin did to perfection in her 2008 RNC tour-do-force. Yet, in a venue that you would never expect to rehabilitate her reputation, The Atlantic, Joshua Green does just that. Green explains that in her short stint as Alaska's governor, Palin did a remarkable job of taming Big Oil and setting her state on the path to fiscal sanity. Of course, she did this by raising taxes on Big Oil - she'd never admit to that now - but, once in the national spotlight, Palin turned hard right. She wouldn't admit to working with Alaskan Democrats and forging a pragmatic course to policy solutions. Green makes the observation that American politics would look dramatically different today if Palin had run as a reformer rather than as an antagonist pitting her "real" America against Obama's apparently "fake" America.

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A good education program was on display on NPR's Morning Edition. Eighth graders in Fairfax County, VA must attend Finance Park and act like an adult when making deciding how to spend a fixed budget. It's a great learning experience that you hope other school districts will soon emulate.

In more distressing educational news is the sad state of Detroit's public schools. Dan Rather's two-hour documentary on the inexplicably shoddy state of public education is required for anyone who doesn't "get" how sunk many of our schools are.

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In good Detroit news, the auto bailouts from early 2009 have worked exceedingly well, although as E.J. Dionne points out, you're unlikely to get Republican critics of the program to admit they were wrong. Yes, you can argue whether or not government should be taking sides, but that's a specious argument. Government takes sides all the time. Think of tax credits or deductions or property tax giveaways that happen all the time.

Issues: May 16, 2011: Nebraska, Oil Exploration, Lugar, AIDS Research

kingpolitics@gmail.com (Marvin King) — Mon, 16 May 2011 13:52:00 +0000

Congrats to The Monkey Cage for being named "Blog of the Year."

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Obama continues his campaign of appeasement. This weekend the president announced plans that would eventually lead to the expansion of drilling in Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico. Americans care more about paying $4 a gallon than the environmental damage done by episodic dangers (e.g. Valdez, BP oil spill).

Hopefully, he will not compromise with the tax haters on future budget negotiations.

Speaking of compromise, how does Mitt Romney sleep at night? Be proud of your accomplishments. Don't run away from past success. It's demeaning to watch him squirm out of past reasonableness. But, he's not alone. Plenty of Republicans supported the individual mandate when it was a GOP idea. The problem with Republican arch-conservative orthodoxy is that it punishes perfectly competent moderate Republicans like Indiana's Richard Lugar, who have to bend over backwards to protect their right flank from Palinista's (NYT) who have no concept of government obligation.

But, the rich (or at least their Republican benefactors), as this graph shows, are not satisfied that their real taxes have fallen even as their incomes have gone up sharply.

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In the college sports world, this time last year we were at the start of the great conference realignment upheaval of 2010. One of the big fish to move was Nebraska from the Big 12 to the Big10(11)(12). In terms of on field success, Nebraska brings a lot to the Big 10(11)(12) in a number of sports. But, the big concern was Nebraska's less than stellar academic reputation. This turned out to be not a big deal because Nebraska was part of the 62 member American Association of Universities. Well, not anymore. The AAU kicked NU out. The Big10(11)(12)won't do the same because the Big 12 wouldn't take them back. Here is Max Sternberg's take.

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In good news, AIDS researchers find a "treatment of prevention."

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Derrick Bell has advocated for prison reform a full generation ahead of anybody else. Now, legislators are finally joining him (NYT), but only to save a dollar, not for the terrible waste its laid to inner-city communities. Better late than never, I guess?

Issues: May 11, 2011: Common, Tax Cuts, Employment and What's Wrong w/Higher Ed

kingpolitics@gmail.com (Marvin King) — Wed, 11 May 2011 15:03:00 +0000

Republicans criticized Obama's focus on health care over jobs as the number one item on his first-term agenda. That's a legitimate criticism with strong arguments for and against. Likewise, the GOP is now feeling the heat for making ending Medicare as we know it the centerpiece for their House majority. Americans didn't vote them in to end one of the most popular government programs. They've smartly scrapped plans for a Medicare overhaul (NYT).

This chart demonstrates that the pace of employment gains in this recovery is roughly on par with the last three economic recoveries. Not that it couldn't be better. The economy is certainly larger now than it was in 1991 and 2001, so it will have to maintain April's pace for longer. Then again, the rapid rate of job losses in 2008 (NYT) and total job losses of 7.5 million was simply stunning.

However, what Republicans care most about is cutting spending, not reducing the deficit. If they cared about reducing the deficit, then eliminating the Bush tax cuts would be "on the table."

Miscellany:

1. A professor laments what's wrong in higher education. The focus is on how difficult it is for newly minted Ph.D.'s to find a job. It 's a brutal market, has been a brutal market and to save costs, institutions make it more brutal by hiring an increasingly large share of non-tenure track faculty. It's an old story, but one worth telling, especially if you're inclined to graduate school and beyond.

2. Here's how clueless I am when it comes to contemporary music. Ever hear of the rapper Common? I hadn't, until I read about his visit to the White House and the ensuing Fox-manufactured faux controversy.

3. Good April jobs numbers (NYT).

4. Good news for fans of high-speed rail in the Midwest. Illinois is picking up a lot of the cash that Florida turned down. Free $.

5. U.S. population loss and gain and a close look at the people of Washington State.

6. For my friends out there wrestling with the choice of buying or renting a house, read this first (NYT).

7. John Sides with advice on how the GOP presidential ticket should campaign.

Issues: May 10, 2011: FSU's Naked Greed, Predicting 2012, & Boehner's $2T Gambit

kingpolitics@gmail.com (Marvin King) — Tue, 10 May 2011 15:48:00 +0000

The University of Texas hoards gold to help out its $19.9 billion endowment, second only to Harvard. Don't laugh. University investors are smarter investors. I"m not sure that Texas Governor Rick Perry has much control over the endowment, hopefully not.

One area, unfortunately, where he does have control is the appointment of members to the Board of Regents, the organization overseeing higher education in the state. Through that capacity, Perry ispressuring universities to make core changes to how they assess professors, which has already brought the ire of the American Association of Universities.

Speaking of meddlesome interference, Florida State University whores itself out to the Koch brothers for a measly $1.5 million.

For better or worse, i.e. higher tuition, it is best to let universities go their own route. This might happen in California as the most prestigious universities would like to increase tuition. They should.

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To some, Obama cannot and never will do good. Peter Roff explains how the debate on whether or not to release the bin Laden death photos illustrates Obama's credibility problem. The only people who question Obama's credibility are people who've never accepted his right to lead.

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In early 2010, I firmly believed that the Democrats would lose seats, but not the entire House in that year's midterm elections. I was way off. Now, Alex Altman asks if Democrats can retake the House in 2012. Altman smartly notes that the GOP will have to defend 249 seats, 61 of which are in districts carried by Obama. Besides the economy, where unemployment needs to continue its gradual decline, Obama's personal appeal, will likely have as much weight in the House outcome as anything else. It's too soon to tell, although one model says the GOP might retake the Senate in 2012. If you're interested in this, I would bookmark Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball.

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John Boehner insists on at least $2 trillion in long-term budget spending cuts in order to sign off on raising the debt ceiling. Odd that Republicans now find fiscal restraint when none existed while GWB was president. Mark Thoma arguest that Boehner's premature austerity will simply retard the recovery. It's as if the GOP would rather have you be unemployed than have the debt go higher. What choice would you make?

Of course, if Republicans really wanted the long-term deficit problems to go away, they would have supported health care reform last year. Here's a long, yet cute, chart of why health care spending is so expensive.

Miscellany:

1. Here's the center of the U.S., population-wise. In 2010, it was the appropriately named Texas County, Missouri. H/T: The Monkey Cage.

2. When it comes to budget cuts, one New Hampshire state senator admits it's not an easy process. To see for yourself, try Budget Hero.

Issues: May 10, 2011: FSU's Naked Greed, Predicting 2012, & Boehner's $2T Gambit

kingpolitics@gmail.com (Marvin King) — Tue, 10 May 2011 15:48:00 +0000

For better or worse - meaning higher tuition - it's best to let universities go their own route. This is what might happen in California as the most prestigious universities would like to increase tuition. They should.

Speaking of meddlesome interference, Florida State University whores itself out to the Koch brothers for a $1.5 million.

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Miscellany:

1. Here's the center of the U.S., population-wise. In 2010, it was the appropriately named Texas County, Missouri. H/T: The Monkey Cage.

2. When it comes to budget cuts, one New Hampshire state senator admits it's not an easy process. To see for yourself, try Budget Hero.

Issues: May 9, 2011: Terror, Life Sentences for Pot?, Taking on the Poor

kingpolitics@gmail.com (Marvin King) — Mon, 09 May 2011 14:37:00 +0000

On the May 9th addition of 60 Minutes (video below), President Obama explained the thinking and rationale behind the decision to proceed with the raid to neutralize bin Laden even though it was deep inside Pakistani territory. Taken at face value Obama makes a compelling argument that most people across the political spectrum agree with. Still, you have haters that hate. That's what you do when you're a hater. These people lose track of the real enemy, Al-Qaeda. Here's a sequential chart of their attacks.

Unless you're one of the cruel, cruel people that engage in dog fighting, here's a story you have to enjoy about the dogs of war.

For more on Obama, check out this discussion at The Monkey Cage on measuring the ideologies of president's. It's not as straightforward as you might think.

One last piece on Obama, tomorrow he's in Texas talking up immigration reform (he's also there for some big time fundraising). Last week I got into a lengthy debate on whether or not Obama would push immigration reform. I thought he would because it's an issue that divides Republicans. That's not to say that Obama or anybody in Congress actually expects real, substantive reform, but by pushing immigration he sends a signal to pro-immigration reform Hispanic groups that he hasn't lost sight of their agenda.

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The unemployment picture brightened in April with the addition of 244,000 new jobs, almost all of them in the private sector. Thank goodness because new jobs can't come soon enough for the folks in these six states that are actively cutting unemployment benefits.

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In several states expect to see doctor's and hospitals team up with Democrats to combat the aggressive diminution of Medicaid reimbursements. In poor states and states with high cyclical unemployment, more and more people rely on Medicaid, yet budget cut fever targets the poorest among us. Another manifestation of taking on the poor is seen in Mississippi where budget cuts are forcing poor children out of daycare. I'm not exactly sure how that will help their parents escape poverty.

Taking on the poor is one thing, but taking on the elderly. That's tough.

Miscellany:

1. While this comes at the end of this blog post, it is hardly the least important item I write about today. In Louisiana, a man received life in prison for his fourth marijuana arrest. No one doubts the defendant's guilt'; it's the severity of the punishment that startles. If you know how criminal justice works in the Pelican State, this won't surprise you though. The state has the world's highest incarceration rate, not because more crimes are committed there but because the sentences are so long.

2. Population growth in Africa will be the next big thing.

Issues: Cinco de Mayo, 2011: bin Laden who?, Canada's elections, Freedom Rides, China Moves East, Teacher Salaries & Gay Marriage

kingpolitics@gmail.com (Marvin King) — Thu, 05 May 2011 13:07:00 +0000

In the Muslim world, confidence is bin Laden showed a steady decline over the last several years. I'm not sure what killing him will do to his perception over there. To some, he will be a martyr, to others his death will signal a welcome relief.

Some despair that many teens didn't know who bin Laden is. Yes, that's worrisome, but most can't name a single congressperson or senator or Supreme Court justice. Then again, a fair number of adults can't do that either. Yes, you can despair, or you can insist on stronger educational curricula.

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Lots of people are picking up on this story, and by lots of people I mean two. But two is a lot of people to notice a political science article so the authors must be doing something right. The article in question asks if politicians racially discriminate against their own constituents. The answer is yes. I've only read the abstract, but it appears that white legislators take requests from black constituents less seriously and vice versa for black legislators.

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A perennial favorite topic of mine is teacher salaries. I have a younger sister that teaches in Houston ISD, the nation's 7th largest, and largest in Texas, so I'm partial. My grandparents, three cousins and an aunt are also educators, so I can't claim to be bias free on this topic. Nonetheless, on every objective measure, we fail our teachers when it comes to their salaries (NYT). Like any other endeavor you get what you pay for. Credit goes to good and great teachers for completing their Herculean tasks with relatively little reward. By definition, if we fail our teachers we must also fail our students. We do them a disservice by failing to put the best teachers in the classroom we can find. Our expectations for them must be tempered when we acknowledge our own failures as a society when we fail to give our children the opportunities and educational grounding they deserve.

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Miscellany:

1. Canada had an election. Don't know much about it? Go here. H/T: The Monkey Cage.

2. Racism Review ponders the 50th anniversary of the Freedom Rides.

3. In China, where are people moving to?

4. Robert Reich explains how corporate profits are up while the American economy stagnates.

5. Gay marriage is inevitable. If you don't like that, too bad, get used to the idea because it is a matter of when, not if (NYT).

Issues: May 4, 2011: bin Laden, Iran, Gas, GOP's budget, Cities w/Jobs, & Divorce

kingpolitics@gmail.com (Marvin King) — Wed, 04 May 2011 16:27:00 +0000

Most of the Western world continues to celebrate the death of bin Laden, many in Pakistan vow revenge. See this slideshow. The president's approval ratings went up 11%, but if you're an Obama supporter, don't get too excited. Not to be a Debbie Downer but these rally effect approval rating hikes tend toward the ephemeral.

Remember the hike the first Bush received after repelling Iraq from Kuwait? His approval ratings reached an all-time high, but he failed to win reelection when voters blamed him for a stagnant economy. This is why there is a sense of "foreboding" (NYT) in the polls despite personal satisfaction with Obama.

Joshua Tucker believes this might be "a bit of a game-changer."

I've heard lots of calls from liberals that now is the time to get out of Afghanistan because the wars cost too much. How much? Read here. I disagree. Now is the time to double-down on non-military foreign aid. It's important to remind the Middle East that we're than just about hunting down terrorists. We want economic and democratic opportunity everywhere for everyone. This chart show U.S. aid in the Middle East.

Violence, in the case of bin Laden's death, can actually be a good, however, in the case of Syria, violence, as it typically is, is quite bad. Follow that? One outcome is the Iranians have shut up. They know they are next in Spring Revolutions.

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In related news, George W. Bush's declination to Obama invitation to appear with him at Ground Zero should not go unnoticed. I appreciate the fact that the former president has stayed out of the limelight. It shows grace that he's not seeking to hog the limelight. Obama gave the order to get bin Laden after serious debate, but what president would want to be known as the one that let bin Laden escape.

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In unrelated news, this chart breaks down the cost of gas. No, most of it is not in taxes. The economy is what most Americans care most about and the GOP, if it loses big in 2012, according to Anson Kaye, will have to blame their proposed and enacted budget cuts. For those whom the economy is not so hot, you might of relocating to these cities where the economy is hot. Whether or not you think the economy is hot or not largely depends on how much money you make.

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What do Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas, Texas, Georgia, Louisiana, Kentucky, Oklahoma and Maine have in common? They are high divorce, low-education states.

Issues: May 2, 2011. Lara Logan, bin Laden, Conspiracy Theories and Reagan's Support for Collective Bargaining

kingpolitics@gmail.com (Marvin King) — Mon, 02 May 2011 13:23:00 +0000

For all the joy in the demise of Osama bin Laden (NYT), the world is far from safe. It is a safer and better world, but well too far from perfect. Violence against women remains an all-too common blight in the United States and elsewhere. Last night's 60 Minutes story on correspondent Lara Logan's nightmare in Egypt exemplifies this horror. Her interview is below. May her story have the benefit of encouraging women to speak up. Only when society confronts the true costs of sexual violence will we take serious steps to eradicate it.

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In happier news, Obama thoroughly skewered Donald Trump at the White House Correspondents' Dinner. See the video below.

While he sat grim faced throughout the night, Trump later gave high marks to Obama for his comedic timing. Ha ha's aside, the serious issue is the persistence of conspiracy theories (NYT). Some of the recent birther conspiracies smack of white privilege, it's certainly a legitimate question regardless of your views.

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In the South, several communities remain engulfed in the aftermath of last week's devastating storms. To this point, people on the ground give high marks to government responders. Unfortunately, government responders have had too much practice in the last several years.

However, in Texas Governor Rick Perry is upset that the federal government is not helping fight wildfires in the Lone Star state. In fact, Texas has received grant aid from FEMA. I'm sure plenty of unemployed Texans wish Perry wouldn't mind taking aid from the government when they need it. This post and video serves as a devastating critique of governing through ideology. Perry ended up costing Texas businesses billions in higher taxes when he declined federal unemployment aid.

Speaking of ideology and governing, here is a great clip of Ronald Reagan praising the benefits of labor unions and collective bargaining. Yet, the Ronald Reagan nostalgics would never have you believe that Reagan supported anything other than unfettered free markets. Decide for yourself.

On The Death of Osama Bin Laden

kingpolitics@gmail.com (Marvin King) — Mon, 02 May 2011 04:09:00 +0000

On May 1, 2011, President Obama announced that Osama bin Laden was killed in an American military raid in Pakistan. Here is Obama's announcement. Below are my initial thoughts.

I'll avoid the political speculation for another day. It is too premature for talk like that because that is inherently divisive. For Americans not old enough to remember V-E day on May 7, 1945 and V-J day on September 2, 1945, this is the closest they have had to celebrating an actual military victory. Conflicts in Korea and Vietnam ended with quite unsatisfactory thuds. America and her allies were resoundingly victorious in the first Persian Gulf War, but we were merely freeing Kuwait; Americans did not feel the violent brunt of an attack in 1990/91.

This is different. It is rather eerie to celebrate the death of anyone, but exceptions must be made and this definitely calls for an exception. Bin Laden was a horrible ogre whose death signals justice to the friends, family and countrymen of his thousands of innocent victims.

My hope is that Americans remain dignified in this moment of joy.

Terrorism against America and her allies will not end tonight. The way of life that we love - and that others hate - will not change. Enmity toward America remains. May this moment serve as reflection for the thousands of American and allied service members and the untold number of civilians killed and wounded that their sacrifice was not in vain.

Just as importantly, let this night serve as a powerful signal to those that oppose America and her friends that we are at our best not starting wars, but finishing them.

Issues: April 29, 2011

kingpolitics@gmail.com (Marvin King) — Fri, 29 Apr 2011 13:59:00 +0000

A state senator from Texas believes Obama's birth certificate is fake:

Nothing is good enough for some people. Rep. Berman represents Tyler, in east Texas. It's extremely conservative out there, so the odds are he's simply reflecting the beliefs of his constituents...

Of course, we can't really expect Republicans to be sensible and moderate. Their behavior now is to move away from proposals that were once their own proposals simple to oppose Democrats. Their agenda is one of nullification, not problem-solving.

This happens because the average Republican elected today is considerably more conservative than in years past. This is why we've seen a rightward shift in the political center of gravity. To see this in graphical form, visit the Voteview blog, especially the post on April 19 showing polarization of the 112th House (First Dimension). You'll notice the Blue line takes up a longer stretch on the figure from -1 to just over 0.0. However, you see a more truncated Red line. This indicates that Republicans are much less flexible. This is why compromise is so difficult. Their reelection constituencies do not believe in compromise.

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A recent study show that the rich don't flee high-tax states. This finding pokes holes in conservative arguments taxes must dissuade investment. Listen to the story. By the way, what is rich? See pg. 33, Table A-1 to see the income distribution of American households.

Issues: April 28, 2011

kingpolitics@gmail.com (Marvin King) — Thu, 28 Apr 2011 17:44:00 +0000

In my African American politics class the last few weeks we've spent a lot of time discussing partisan realignment, the shifting coalitions supporting the Democratic and Republican party's. Highly related to any discussion of African American partisanship is how education and income effect partisanship. Well, the good folks at The Monkey Cage, Andrew Gelman posted several figures examining the Republican vote in 2008 by education among age/ethnic groups.

For blacks, not surprisingly, regardless of age or education, the black vote for McCain is consistently low. Overall, Democrats do better among the most and least educated groups.

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More pressing to African Americans than vote choice analysis is the Depression-level black unemployment in many of America's cities. Here is the Bureau of Labor Stats page on unemployment showing that black unemployment currently sits at 15.5%.

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Thanks to the good folks at Media Matters for compiling a report showing that Fox News promoted Birtherism on at least fifty-two different segments. At least one person at Fox, Shep Smith, has the common sense to tell the media, implicitly Fox News, to "just freaking stop it." See video below.

Miscellany:

1. Emily's List is ready for 2012. That pro-choice women's group and other Democrats are praying that Sharron Angle and other Tea Party candidates run for office in 2012. Tea Party candidates bring a lot of energy to the table, but they will also raise the ire of many Democratic and Independent voters, especially with a still-popular Obama on the ballot.

2. Don't believe in God? You'll have company in Maine. Forty-one percent of the population there does not believe in God.

3. In Texas, El Paso County and Collin County (a suburban county just north of Dallas), have the same number of people. But, in 2010 155k people voted in Colin, just 88k in El Paso. Voters in Collin County carry their weight (NY Times), not so much in El Paso.