The Small Voice

Value of revisiting the past...

2022-03-17T13:39:00.002+05:30

Growing up, reading History was boring to say the least. I failed to see the relevance of learning about the past. Also, there were hardly any bright job prospects with this subject.

But with time (inevitably) and better judgement (hopefully ;) I find that this view was myopic and flawed.

I think the retelling of an extreme event (like Nazi Holocaust, Hindu genocide of Kashmir etc) may evoke strong emotions. That is natural. But there is a logic to why History is taught in schools. So that we may LEARN FROM THE PAST and RESPOND TO THREATS / OPPORTUNITY better.

I see little harm in people encouraging each other to watch a movie based on publicly available incontrovertible historical facts.

At School level, Sir Francis taught us about Concertation camps' atrocities in Std 8. I thought it was crazy to shell shock 8th Graders to such inhumanity. But it also made us aware that the real world is not a fairy tale.

IF a bad event has happened, we must ensure it never happens again. If you are living with a menace (of religious extremism, brainwashed frenzied mobs, neglecting defence of nation etc), then it is right for the common people to know and understand the threat. No point in brushing it under the carpet and pretend "ALL IS WELL" till someday similar bad things happen to you.

The Jewish people of Europe never believed the spread of Nazism will impact them. They had always lived peacefully with their neighbours. Till it was too late.... and they ended up in Concentration camps.

The Incas were happy in their prosperity, knowledge, city planning etc. till the Spanish invaders came ashore and eventually wiped them out. The Incas’ skewed expertise in religion, architecture (their network of roads through the region are famous) but deficient military wherewithal (no swords, horses etc) proved to be their Achilles’ heel. It is why I found “Guns Germs and steel” & “Collapse” by Jared Diamond to be eye opening must-reads.

Observations, (likely) Implications & View - March 2022

2022-03-09T12:50:00.005+05:30

Observations, Implications & View:

Ukraine indicates it is ready to drop plans for NATO membership:

https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/russia-ukraine-war-zelenskyy-says-no-longer-interested-in-nato-membership-122030801616_1.html

UAE, Saudi kingdoms choose to ignore the USA:

https://nypost.com/2022/03/08/saudi-uae-leaders-ignore-biden-when-he-calls-to-talk-gas-prices-report/

VISA, Mastercard suspend operations in Russia:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/visa-mastercard-russia-ukraine-invasion/

Rating Agencies cut the Russian debt ratings:

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-03-08/card/fitch-sees-imminent-russian-default-as-it-downgrades-again-YlyD4VdcSKi7dCdYkdDu

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/moodys-cuts-russia-rating-ca-rise-default-risk-2022-03-06/

Observations, Implications & View

The trust on the might (and likely implementation of promises of protection) by the US/NATO seems to have been impacted.
The might and status of the sole superpower (going by conventional wisdom) appears to have taken a beating.
The above developments indicate that the agencies controlled by the US are not averse to siding with the former even on non-business and political matters.
There is a curious case of Russian debt downgrade to near junk basis on Political events, while the standards are not universally applied for others.

Observations, Implications & View

The above indicates a likely probability that the so far accepted position of Global Currency order may be challenged. Also, in the same vein the undisputed position of the USD may change in the coming decade.
The above indicates a likely probability that the so far accepted position of Global Currency order may be challenged. In the same vein the undisputed position of the USD & dichotomy in market perception of economy and debt is perplexing, and may normalize in the coming decade. The Chief Economist of largest Indian Bank, highlights the curious case of this dichotomy. While developing economies (running CAD) get penalized with Currency depreciation & hardening Interest rates, the US, which runs the largest CAD (23x Indian CAD or Current Account Deficit) is seeing rising US treasuries (which by the CAD logic should have been at all time lows). Source: https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/navigating-economic-uncertainties-caused-by-ukraine-war-7807512/)
A currency related re-allocation and portfolio rebalancing can wreak high volatility on asset prices and subsequently global markets.
Gold and other safe haven asset classes may see renewed interest.
Inflation and resultant monetary policy response can also develop differently for different Geographical regions, unlike the norm seen in recent times.

Chart Source: https://goldprice.org/gold-price-chart.html

Note: I tried to embed the graph but wasn’t able to do it. Probably due to some technical glitch/ lack of IT ability on my end.

Disclaimer: The above are personal opinions. They are not a solicitation or Investment advice.

Dark clouds

2021-08-09T14:42:00.000+05:30

I was witnessing with great sadness and despair as a neighboring nation, which once sported an open and progressive society and economically too was making a mark in the world, is now on the verge of getting enveloped in the thick black smoke of hate and violence. Politically, and strategically, such a decline will undoubtedly leave a more difficult (and dangerous) regional equation for countries like India.

However, the deafening silence of our own liberal-left on the clear and present danger and on the human crimes (be it beheadings or hangings etc) clearly exposes how shallow their own “liberal” and “secular” ideologies are.

While talking about this international situation, I am only painting a backdrop to the ever-darkening atmosphere for India. In this light another of our neighbor, who is growing more powerful and belligerent with each passing day, we at our present state of affairs, are ill-equipped to compete against. This neighbor, lets call it Red-2, is taking multiple steps in multiple areas to slowly dig deep its talons in the world economy. Its stronghold in the Dark Continent, in the high seas as well as decline of its bête noir (lets say Blue-1) is leaving the world in gradual but inevitable power shift that can have disastrous consequences for quite a few countries, if not most.

In this backdrop, I believe that we as a nation are yet not geared up / united / focused / planned / efficient enough to put up a strong defense. A defense to our lives, land, freedom and economy. To further Modern day Jaichand (s) are playing the tune of Red-2 and its adopted progeny, which is making the country lose focus and causing irreparable harm in lost time and reputation. Many powers who have or potentially could have deal/collaborate with India, may develop interest loss, as risk of reputation loss / judicial risk flares up.

The world too, is already weakened with the pandemic, and is hurting with lives lost and the economic damage caused. But so far little gumption and grit has been shown so far against the perpetrators. It clearly shows the might of Red-1 as well as indecisiveness and lassitude among the other side.

The recent currency appreciation of Red-1 vs Blue is notable, especially as this may be the first after a long time when Red-1 is now following a stronger currency game. This may also have implications on the value and therefore the continued attractiveness of Dollar as the global reserve currency and also medium of exchange.

All this while, Red-1 is slowly but surely taking the Global Go game to its endgame scenario. A grim scenario as I see it.

Lockdown blues...

2020-07-08T13:24:00.000+05:30

Its been a while since we are all locked up. And the raging pandemic continues to make mockery of Human lives and livelihood. Hold on....Keep your chin up...because every night has a dawn that follows it (so as they say.....scientifically not true though)

Letters to my son #1 – Being human

2018-09-18T03:14:00.001+05:30

Many a times we make mistakes, some times we are not taken seriously and sometimes we meet with failure too. Intellectuals as well as idiots are often in love with their own selves, their own ideas and will seldom listen to you. Even in the stock markets, when I regularly come across super-intelligent people every day, many a times, our thoughts and perspective differs. This difference of opinion, will always be there. One must understand to live with it and respect it too. Some people are hot-headed and blunt, and you may feel hurt at times. Some are way-too frank and you may also feel slighted by their way of talking, even when they may mean no harm.

How to deal with these? Should you get angry or ignore it? How to deal with rejection and, sometimes disappointment?

Let me remind you, Krishna, was a simple cowherd to many. He was the best of statesman, a fierce warrior, yet he often maintained his visage of the humble and lovable Gopala. Despite being the incarnation of Lord Vishnu, he still had people like Duryodhana, Shishupala etc disagreeing and even insulting him. He resisted the temptation to fight back on most occasions. Even though he did show his “Virat roopa” or his God form twice, most of the time he maintained his cool, and sought to reason, cajole and tone down the tensions. He respected the difference of opinion, and didn’t try to hijack anyone else’ choice by his own superior intellect/foresight/strength.

Like him, it is important to be approachable and affable to most people. Being human is most important. Krishna being a God, had a purpose in life, which he achieved too. But he didn’t make too much fuss about it, and rather enjoyed and spread happiness wherever and whenever he could. The lord shows us the way to live life in this world, and we can only learn from Him.

Your purpose in life is important, but ONLY to YOU. It is always crucial to maintain a humble self, which will allow you to make mistakes in life, learn and grow as a person. Even the Lord had to bear the lashings of the world, so who are you to expect anything different. So don’t take yourself too seriously that will impede your growth as a person and as a human being. Flow like water, and you will reach your sea.

Love,

Your Papa

Contrarian Thinking explained

2017-01-06T03:55:00.000+05:30

Going against the herd is the key principle of Value investment. This is where it differs from the chartists etc who essentially try to “go with the flow”. Going with the flow is great while swimming.

Contrarian thinking is not based on ignoring known facts or just trying to be different / brave. It essentially means stripping out the emotions from the current situation and looking at things in black and white.

Explaining with a demo:

Let me make this clear with an example. I am sure“3 idiots” a popular bollywood flick, was enjoyed by one and all (including me). Most of us will also swear by the “message” of the movie. But on a slightly deeper analysis, the movie shows big fallacies and inconsistencies in its events and incidents.

I will take one: a student commits suicide since the heartless professor didn’t allow him extra time/credits for project submission.

CONSENSUS view: Poor student had to die because of the arrogant SOB Virus (nickname of the teacher). Damn you Virus!!! It was entirely the professor’s fault. Why didn’t he allow extra time / credits for the project? Wow a Quad-coptor!!! (what if incomplete?) He should have awarded full marks to the student for even attempting such a project?? What are lousy grades against a young boy’s life??

Why cant you learn from the netas giving away all those free stuff (free laptops, loan waivers, wi-fi etc) from tax payers’ money and getting praised for their large-hearts?

CONTRARIAN view: Sad & unfortunate that a student commits suicide. He/she should be saved. But was the professor at fault? The student wasn’t in a school project. He was old enough to realise the time required for his ambitious project and match it according to the available time and resources. C'mon we don’t write 2-pages answer for a 2 marks exam. Even a class 5 student knows that much. Common sense no?

How can a project guide allow extra time to a single student?

If he does, would he not be unfair to every other student who had worked hard/sacrificed to submit the complete project on time? It would be like examiner allowing “five minutes extra” to one kid, while every other student are asked to hand over their answer sheets.

Hence, Contrarian view is stripping away the emotions (of young student committing suicide) and realising that the movie is only trying to play with your emotions instead of properly examining the issue.

Business news channels, with their myriad “experts” tend to overplay a particular event zillion of times which does cloud our judgment and makes us act in hasty/emotional response. A value investor must be careful to avoid it.

Caveat: Averaging is usually followed as so called “contrarion” approach. But averaging in a debt-laden company or one which is getting obsolete etc. should be strictly avoided.

Fun fact: Google Bill Miller + kodak.

;)

Investing during volatile markets

2016-11-17T11:53:00.002+05:30

Surprises happen, often

Taking a step back, we had no clue about the PM’s announcement about the de-monetization (banning of Rs 500 & Rs 1000 currency notes) and are still to come to terms with the impact and the after effects of the move. Neither had anyone any idea that a certain Donald Trump, a political first-timer, will be elected the President of the US of America!

But both events happened, and took most, if not all of us, by surprise.

Coming back to Indian markets, the commentators are as divided on the economic and political impact of the anti-black money drive on the common man as they were clueless about such an event unfolding. However, prima facie, I see the following likely outcomes:

Rise in deposits, will bring down rates: If the so far, surge in bank deposits (Rs 4 lakh crores so far; ~4% of total deposits) are anything to go by, the move may shore up bank deposits which in turn would swell short term liquidity in the system, putting downward pressure on interest rates causing the lending rates to start falling.
Correction in prices of traditional black money havens: Maybe you would also have guessed that real estate prices would correct and at least home buying (for self use) may be a good idea in the near term.
Near term pressure on lending agencies: Equity investments in banks and NBFCs (especially LAP & MFI) may be under pressure for the near term as disbursals, collections as well as borrowers finances take time to adjust.

But all that you probably already knew. So what new can I tell you?

I will reiterate on sticking to the basics of investing. Hence:

an investor’s long term investment strategy should be influenced by near term/macro events to a limited extent. I believe that usually it’s a mistake to base investment decisions on macro forecasts/events.
macro events are important market influencers and hence often provide attractive entry/exit levels, which should be made use of. But they should not influence the choice of investment
investors should continue to invest with a long term view, taking an objective view on individual company’s performance, financial health, quality of business (existence of sustainable advantage & pricing freedom) loosely tempered with appropriate valuation measures
A long term investors should avoid making too many entry / exits and frequent churn in the portfolio. Sadly, churning is a trait, often encouraged by brokers by providing tips, automated or chat based reccos, rock bottom brokerages etc.

Call to action:

Significant correction has taken place in the markets, and may continue in the next couple of months.

Value investors should ideally take advantage of near term fear / greed of the market.

The hokum that we have been taught in History, and why the truth is so fascinating

2016-10-12T03:49:00.001+05:30

Most Indians, like me, deeply love their country and are proud of its rich and its diverse culture and heritage. However, problems like Caste system and the regional / communal division in the country are sobering thoughts and most of us wish we had a more plural, inclusive and united country.

The so-called “Aryan invasion” theory (unproven, but widely believed) is also cause of much anguish and division.

I was reading a very interesting book ("The Incredible History of India's Geography") by Sanjeev Sanyal and I came across something something that was truly remarkable that I must share with all of you.

I was happily amazed when I read that the genetic makeup of Indians is unique and most of us are from the same flock. Hence, the so called “Aryan” and “Dasa” race divide, and consequently, the North Indian vs South Indian divide is all bullshit. Also, most, if not all of us have high & low caste genes in equal measure and essentially we all are the same.

Genetic science has proven that ALL the present day Indians are a mixture of ANI & ASI genetic make up. Not only this, studies PROVE THAT THE RIGID CASTE SYSTEM DIDN’T EXIST 2000 years ago.

Did some googling and you can see the evidence for yourself:

(http://www.abroadintheyard.com/genetic-study-reveals-india-rigid-caste-system-did-not-exist-2000-years-ago/)

Put simply, 2000 years back, when the caste system was not rigid, people frequently married between castes. This means, all Indians share the same ancestors, which would comprise both HIGH & LOW CASTES. This rigid caste system with restrictions on marriage between castes is a recent (anthropologically speaking) phenomenon and essentially, no one can be claimed exclusively of this or that caste. I am excited by this, because, with this new evidence the high-low caste divide just melts away.

Genetics & geological studies also indicates that the super advanced Harappans & Mohenjodaro people weren’t killed by the "nomadic Aryans" but merely migrated to rest of the India, due to the drying up of the Saraswati river.

They, went inland in India and inter mixed freely with the abroginal races, to produce the MODERN INDIAN. Hence, the so called Aryan invasion theory was mainly bullshit by the Europeans and kept alive by politicians and taught to many of us in School History. What a way to mislead an entire generation & nation on a UNPROVEN THEORY !!!

Essentially, a South Indian and a North Indian are genetically very close and not of different races. We are something called ANI-ASI type. There are some tribes in Central Asia who are similar to us. But that is that.

I have always hated & been against Indians being divided on the basis of religion, color, region or caste.

Since, genetically we are all of the same makeup, unique & different from most other races in the world, I believe there is really no point in trying to fight amongst each other.

Rather we concentrate on fighting Poverty, Pollution, Terrorists and lazy Politicians trying to divide us for their selfish Vote-bank politics.

Happy Vijaya Dashmi to all my brothers and sisters.

This Diwali gift yourself a good habit

2015-11-09T20:12:00.000+05:30

After a long time I am so excited about a novel.

The Martian, by Andy Weir (which has also been made into a super successful movie) is taking up all my spare time and more. So, while my son plays around, is busy drawing or jumping on things, I am busy poring over the exploits of Mark Whatney, struggling all alone with death & disco on Mars.

My friend Karan often admonishes me that nowadays I don’t read much, something that gave me so much happiness. Well, Karan, I am trying to buddy, not as prolifically as you do, but I am trudging along. Thank God for ebooks :).

Reading for me, is somewhat, an out of body experience. It provides me with perspective & insights. It’s a way for me to organise / germinate new thoughts. And of course, vicarious life-in-life pleasure.

Take fiction books for instance, if you really like the book, you are transported to the world & (sometimes) become the character too, that is described in the book. I can shamelessly admit, that I have had my days when I was Sherlock Holmes, Doctor Who, Lando Sackett, Howard Roark for weeks on end and loving every moment of it. Just like right now, I am on Mars, and visualising a marooned astronaut’s life on the red planet.

Nonfiction, is even more interesting. You get to learn from great minds sharing their ideas/thoughts in detail with you from within the pages as if they are personally teaching you. How often, you come across a super intelligent chap with something worth sharing who is also willing to talk to mere mortal like me? Not very often, I must say. So Jared Diamond teaches me about his life-long findings, geniuses & insiders unravel the intricacies of the mind of Buffet & Munger (yet to read Munger one) and Damodaran expounds on what he does best, Valuation. All in the comfort of my place, my time and as many times as I like to revise. And I feel blessed.

Reading is one of the most important achievements of my life, it has made me what I am. But all this was just ramblings. All I wanted to say, was that I am dying to watch the movie. But first, I must finish the book.

So this Diwali, 1) gift yourself a book (and a habit of reading), and 2) invest in GOOD QUALITY stocks.

Happy Diwali.

Questions that India must ask

2015-11-06T08:47:00.000+05:30

My heart goes out to the victim of Dadri lynching. Such acts are deplorable.

Appalled? Yes!! But lets "choose" our response that can make a difference

But my heart also goes out to Sikhs massacred in 1984, Army, CISF & BSF Jawans losing life & limb daily to keep India safe, Hindus, Muslims, Sikhs & all others killed in riots since Independence. In short, there is much to mourn, much to deplore. But even if we all “mourn & deplore” what exactly will change? Nothing.

Since so much national time and energy is being spent on the scourge of “intolerance” in India, I don’t want to add to the brouhaha. Allow me to draw attention, to our RESPONSE as a nation to such incidents.

Lets ask the right questions

We, are pointing fingers, returning awards, demanding statements, taking out marches, but surprisingly, neither the media, nor the opposition is asking that the perpetrators be booked and brought to justice. Hardly anyone is asking why the Police has not arrested the guilty? Why nobody is shouting why perpetrators of horrifying cases like Badayun are still roaming free? Why guilty of murdered children not caught? Why mass murderers of Bhopal are allowed to escape the country in a Govt plane?

Isnt that strange? Does it not show that we Indians have become so used to the “law (not) taking its due course” and the guilty never punished that we have all but forgotten to ask for justice in this country?

Today, we all clamour for no-consequence statements by politicians and get satisfied by some high decibel shouting by Arnab Goswami. We see our politicians getting photos clicked with victim’s family and then forget justice for the victim? Doesn’t it reflect the 60-years’ accumulated mistrust of the law & justice delivery mechanism?

Only Justice can solve issues, not political drama

Let’s all demand that the guilty be punished. ASAP caught, tried and punished. Only swift & inevitable punishment will deter further acts from happening. Neither the PM’s statement nor Sonia Gandhi’s 1.4km long protest marches will solve the matter.

The Kejri Correction

2015-02-07T19:19:00.004+05:30

The Delhi Vidhan Sabha (State Govt.) elections are being seen as a big event by the media. Maybe it is significant because it might be the one last hurrah of anti-BJP parties to stop the Modi-BJP juggernaut. A defeat here will certainly deflate them for the more crucial and larger state elections due later.

Since Delhi sends only 7 MPs (or 1.3% of total MPs) to the Parliament, even a NIL tally hardly makes any significant impact for the ruling party or indication of its popularity. A neck to neck contest, will mean even less so for the NDA.

Nonetheless, it is being built up as the first (possible) setback for BJP. Some reports indicate that AAP may actually take the lead in a photo finish or with Congress support.

Scenarion of Possible AAP win: the positives for India

However, an AAP win may be in some way beneficial for the country.

Talks over, show the work now: So far, AAP has only been in the talking mode. Talk is easy. In my view, their ability to run even a small city-state like Delhi is arguable.

Kejriwal & Co.'s ability of organization & direction, crucial for good administration are un proven. Also, their disregard of basic economics sense & their penchant for biased populism runs a danger of anarchy and their actions may soon be stymied by litigations & PILs. Their last time, some of their decisions regarding power bills reprives etc. was biased & questionable, in my opinion. Even 1-2 years of government will expose their skills (or lack of it) to everybody.

In other words, they will be forced to walk their talk. Sure AAP can for some time manage, by running huge deficits and by creating a smorgasbord of policies succeed in fooling the people for some time. But eventually, the citizen will see through and assess whether she is happy or otherwise.

IF AAP Govt. succeeds & Delhi is better off: BJP will have competition, and India will have a viable alternative to the regional parties. Since long India, has been looted by Islamic invaders, the British and of late, the Congress (Ghandy-Nehru family) party. We terribly need good alternatives to achieve optimal growth & eradicate poverty.
IF AAP Govt. fails & Delhi is a mess: If they fail and Delhi state machinery comes to a chaos, then at least the nation will have a model to compare BJP/Modi’s Governance with.

Bihar elections more crucial - Rajya Sabha superiority crucial

Already, due to their numerical superiority in the Rajya Sabha, the opposition is able to stonewall progressive bills like the Coal bill etc. that the NDA introduces. This is expected to continue for some more time.

Hence, it is imperative for the NDA to grab control of the Upper House to get any meaningful work done. This is because, the more time is wasted, the more frustrated the electorate may get. Bihar has 16 members in the Rajya Sabha (6.5% of total), Delhi none.

In this stalemate situation, the anti incumbency feeling against NDA may increase and impact them in the Bihar elections, due later. An anarchist AAP Govt. in the not Delhi, even for a few months, will be a good contrast to the Central Govt. and may actually help NDA avoid the anti-incumbency factor in Bihar elections.

Video: Cheesy...but says it.He he :)

For markets: Discounts time

The Delhi Legislative Assembly election results will come out on Tuesday, 10^th Feb 2015. If some media reports are right and the AAP/Congress are able to cobble together a majority, the markets may take a correction that many experts have been waiting for some time now.

In that scenario, I don’t expect blue chips to be impacted much, but midcaps and especially lesser known/covered stocks may see significant correction. I feel, this may be a good opportunity to accumulate quality stocks at discounts.

My Cinderella Man

2014-06-06T02:32:00.000+05:30

My dear Bhaiya (elder brother),

Today you are fighting one of the hardest battles of your life, each day and each moment is a battle. And let me tell you, each day when I see you, I swell with pride that you, the toughest man I know, is you, my own elder brother.

Fighting cancer is tough. But defying doctors and their negative thoughts each and every time, shows who is the toughest of them all.

Honestly, I believe you had a Charlie Sheen kind of good looks and style. I can never be smart or as good looking as you were a few years ago but I don’t care. Every young brother has a hero, and mine is YOU. And who wants to compete with their idols?

Your magnetic personality makes people remember you for years afterwards, even if they met you for a few minutes. I am sure many more “Amit Shankar”-s of the world are waiting for you to come and change their world for the better in a matter of minutes.

I know you would have made a killing on the equity markets on the trading side. Get well soon and I hope and dream of you making millions on the markets.

Please do.

Your biggest fan,

Your younger brother.

PS: Cinderalla Man, is a movie about a boxer who fights back poverty, bad health during the Great Depression to win back glory and fame for his family. Its inspired from the real-life of James Broddock.

A Nation emerges

2014-05-27T01:06:00.002+05:30

Some time back my good friend Shirish liked & shared a video of a news report by a prominent NDTV journo of rampant Caste system still entrenched in hinterlands of UP. I neither liked the report nor the journo and frankly told Shirish so. For me, the journalist and his usual reports are like “grains of sand in one’s the eye….painful, irritating and blurring the vision”

Shrish demanded an explanation and here is what I have to say in my defense.

Shirish being the literary kind, would have read both “The lord of the Flies(1954)” and “The Coral Island (1858)”, books published with a century in between with similar premise: innocent, teen-aged Christian boys stranded on an uninhabited Pacific island. The similarity, sadly ends there.

While the Coral Island is an endearing story of courage, adventure, friendship and heroism, the LOTF tale is about the group quickly degenerating to a barbaric state with groups and individuals lusting for power and not sparing even gruesome violence to achieve it. In short, it takes a very dim view of the human mind and reactions which I found very depressing. Now, in my view, human nature has such wide dimensions and possibilities of individual or group reaction to any event are infinite. But why wallow in the negative always? Why not listen, learn and train our thoughts towards the positive and the good?

Agreed, that the scourge of caste system is centuries old and still real in India. Surely it would still exist in many deep pockets of our country. Anybody with even a mobile camera can come up with several such instances and episodes in our villages to prove it exists. But what’s new in that dude? It as if somebody shows footage of “Slumdog Millionaire” to prove terrible poverty still exists in India. Duh. I think how Indians are overcoming regressive and primitive social customs is news, NOT how some illiterate Brahmins-Harijans still interact in some sleepy hamlet. So, my point is simply this: what new or unique this (or such) reports bring out? Merely highlighting regressive aspects of society still exists, for me serves very little purpose.

Thankfully, I believe that most of the country too, is eager to throw away the non-sense of caste etc based mindset. The nation has dumped such old moth-eaten ideas and instead got out and voted in huge numbers for somebody whose sole election plank was “Good governance for ALL” which is a great positive for India.

A new India is emerging with fresh thoughts like a butterfly from the restricting cocoon of old ideologies.

That's News Shirish.

Is India about to elect its Reagan? - The Hindu

2014-04-25T12:34:00.001+05:30

Is India about to elect its Reagan? - The Hindu

Notable quote:
" if you favour allowing citizens to be treated differently on the basis of their religious beliefs, then you are an open-minded “secularist.” If, on the other hand, you favour treating all citizens equally under the law, without regard to their religion, then you are a “religious extremist.”

My happiest 5mins of the week

2014-03-28T00:33:00.001+05:30

Both my 9-mth old son and I were down health-wise for last couple of days.

He was struggling with a bout of fever after his immunization shots, and I from a nasty bit of flu & fever. Both recovered around roughly the same time, i.e. today evening. Wife had chores to do, and she left me in charge of him. After trying a few tricks, none of which interested him, I decided to be a bit innovative.

I dimmed the lights, and together, in the dark, we watched my favorite Michel Jackson’s “Will you be there” picturized on Free Willy montage shots on Youtube.

And this was my happiest 5mins of the week. Why? Because, this is one of my favourites and I am soo thrilled that my son liked it too!! He was seeing a whale for the first time in his life, but he enjoyed every moment when the whale emerged from the water and did tricks.

He he.

Can hardly wait to introduce him to Doctor Who, Tintin, The Lord of the Rings, Batman, GI Joe et al.

Delhi drama : a great missed Opportunity for the BJP

2014-02-16T03:56:00.001+05:30

Some say he chickened out of his promises. Some say he was right to resign in protest. Some say he is an anarchist. Some say he sacrificed CM post for the PM post.

But say what you like, the Twitter/Facebook are all in a tizzy over Arvind Kejriwal: the one man party. He is playing the game well, where at least for the time being, he has the spotlight and (maybe) even public sympathy: a potent combination that can turn fortunes in a democracy.

The Kejriwal gambit

First lets understand how losingDelhi for Kejriwal is a step towards national success. In one master stroke, Arvind Kejriwal has pitted his fledgling party squarely against the two giants. He has not only scored a moral victory by sacrificing his CM post for the Jan Lokpal bill (JLP), he may also have succeeded in painting the congress-BJP to be in cahoots, thus gaining significant political ground. Also, he has freed himself and the top guns from the day-to-day demands of Delhi administration and brought them to do what they do best: campaign.

The BJP folly

Much as I admire the BJP and their passion for the country, I believe the BJP has missed an important chance in the unfolding Delhi drama. By standing with the Congress, and opposing the Jan Lokpal bill, the BJP took a wrong political step.

Now assume if BJP had supported AAP and helped them bring the bill. What would have happened:

AAP's mass appeal spent: The single most important arrow in AAP’s quiver i.e. the Jan Lokpal would have been spent. AAP would then have been saddled with the daily affairs of the Delhi state, leaving their best guns (read Arvind Kejriwal) too busy to pose a serious threat to the BJP in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.
Counter to UPA's Lokpal claims: The UPA passed a much watered down and almost ineffective Lokpal Bill (LP) in the Lok Sabha. But toothless as it may be, it allows Shri Rahul Gandhi (Beloved and Respected Leader) to use it to project Congress as fighters of corruption. Had BJP supported JLP, they (the BJP) too would have got the credit for JLP. A senior BJP leader of Delhi had already disclosed that the BJP was willing to support the JLP. So with a little bit of imagination, they could have effectively neutralized AAP threat as well as left the Congress with egg on their face.
Capture AAP's vote-share: Having hijacked the AAP’s anti-corruption image, the BJP would have in one go captured the huge anti-corruption support base of AAP which would have been crucial for 2014 elections.

Why the BJP MUST neutralize Kejriwal

The NDA, unlike the UPA (or the NDA-1) is still short of powerful & dependable allies. So even in a best case scenario of the NDA winning 220-240 seats, they shall still desperately need allies, who as of today are hard to come by.

The BJP must be wary that a Delhi-like situation (or earlier, in May-1996 the 13-day Vajpayee Govt) doesn’t appear again at the centre when despite being the single largest party, the BJP is frustrated and not able to form a government.

Every vote counts, and hence its imperative, in my view that it captures AAP’s vote-share.

All is still not lost

I believe that all is still not lost for the BJP, though they may be a bit late. This is what they must do:

Take a leaf out of Congress’ book and send a letter of support to AAP, with ONLY ONE condition: Mr. Kejriwal remains the CM
AAP will do its best to wiggle out, but if the BJP assures it that they will vote in favor of JLP bill in Delhi Vidhan Sabha, AAP shall have little choice
This will force Kejriwal & co. to be limited to Delhi, at least for the next few months giving a rather free run to NDA vs Congress battle.

Confession

I have great admiration for Mr.Arvind Kejriwal. But I believe he and his party are too raw and unstructured to hold fort at the national level.

At this time, the nation needs to decide between the Development-nationalist plank of Modi or the populist-corrupt-dynastic plank of Shri Rahul Gandhi (Beloved and Respected Leader).

And hence, while people like Mr.Kejriwal MUST be there to be the moral conscience keeper, the billion plus nation needs stability and direction. At present, I believe, AAP should prove their performance in Delhi for a few years before they aspire for the national stage.

Why we need a few more crazies

2014-01-20T20:32:00.003+05:30

Arvind Kejriwal must be crazy.
Its apparent even when you listen to him. He comes across as a crystal clear, rationale, albeit too idealistic to be a Politician. Yet he is in Politics. He talks how he will root out the corrupt. How he will clean up the system and punish the guilty of scams. Ironically, many of whom are from the very party which is crucial for the existence of his government in New Delhi.

Yes he must be crazy. He must be crazy to take on alone, the super-powerful corrupt.He must be crazy to try to reform the system screwed beyond repair by wily political biggies. He must crazy to believe that he, with his motley bunch of followers can kill the invisible Goliath of Corruption.

“The corrupt club sticks together.” Always

Reality Check.
The Corrupt-club protects their own. Any member, howsoever insignificant, represents a cash stream to which all take a share. Hence all the fraternity comes together to shield him. Also, the network is ever growing: they have a method of preying /recruiting into the morally weak or ambivalent which constantly keeps swelling the legions. Numbers are power in Democracy.

Maybe, on their own, several corrupt officers would not be asking for bribes. But when they are part of a syndicate, an unholy food chain involving the grass-root constable to the (for example) a powerful Cabinet Minister, all are emboldened. Not only the speed money provides them the much needed liquidity, it also makes them part of a coterie that has the rich and powerful in it. They enjoy such immunity that can be seldom enjoyed by the honest.

True, an honest man has his principles and his night’s good sleep, but apart from that, he stands alone. God forbid, if a taint is aimed at him, till the time he is exonerated (assuming he is) he goes through hell. He has to bear legal expenses out of his meager salary, his savings are drained, he has to bear humiliation. Worst of all, he may stand to lose the only thing he ever had: respect from fellow men. Even if he is found innocent, cynics will always question his integrity, and the daggers will forever be ready for one slip from him.

Alas, such is the system as I understand it. I may be wrong, and I hope and pray I am. But if I am not, then the whole setup is skewed heavily in favor of the corrupt. Hence fighting corruption may be more dangerous and frustratingly tough to eliminate than some may believe.

Only a crazy person (s) will attempt this on an institutional basis. Arvind Kejriwal must indeed be crazy. But we desperately need a few more crazies like him.

HNY 2014

2014-01-01T00:49:00.000+05:30

May the year 2014 bring us the best of everything.

Wish you a year where you have plenty of reasons to smile

and millions of memories to cherish.

Me, Wife & kid wish you a
Happy New Year !!!

India Election results: key takeaways so far

2013-12-08T13:41:00.000+05:30

Key takeaways from what trends/results available so far:

The 3-1 results (as appear likely now) are primarily against the ruling Congress party and one expects markets to adequately cheer the results on Monday. Frankly, a 4-0 was very optimistic. But a 3-1 also is a good indication (for now) of the UPA losing and NDA securing at least a simple majority in 2014.
The emergence of AAP is more a reflection of the common man’s anger with the Congress rather than emergence of a NaMo wave.
A wake up call for BJP, in terms of Chattisgarh as they can not take things lightly and need to constantly be on guard against complacency and deviations from development agenda.
The winter session may see much efforts by the UPA to bludgeon through controversial bills in a last ditch effort to woo a single “minority” segment and the economically marginalized. This may prove to be a dampener for the markets and may result in a volatile ride in the near term.
Finally, the success of the debutante AAP is a clarion call that the traditional corrupt and opportunistic politics (and politicians) are out of favor. Older parties like the BJP & the Congress will be thankful that the AAP doesn’t have a rest of India presence, so they are safe in 2014 at least. But if Delhi voting is an indication, the political parties can now never be complacent and let the corrupt/arrogant/criminal elements take over, for there is always a fear of AAP breathing down there neck. BTW, the last ditch "doctored" sting has been a damp squib, with the voters rejecting the fake drama.
Interestingly, the BBC didn’t find the startling Indian election results worth covering in their world news bulletin in the morning. Even at 1:20 PM IST, their Asia page carries no mention of the Indian elections. There is a news article on Pakistan though. I guess, historic events in India (GDP $ 1.8 tn) aren’t important enough as regular Pakistan (GPD $ 0.2 tn) events for the British.

Arise Indians: Time to do your national duty

2013-12-04T15:55:00.002+05:30

Today New Delhi goes to polls, and soon the rest of the states and the country will follow.

Irrespective of which party or candidate or agenda you like and decide to vote for, vote you must, for it is your national duty.

Each one bring five

And as Neeraj ji says, IF you claim to be a responsible citizen, then:

not only must you cast your own vote,
but also make a promise to make at least 5-10 people vote this time, who have not voted last time. Drag them to the polling station, if need be. But make them vote.

What happens when you don’t Vote? The corrupt candidate wins :(

If you don't cast your vote, don’t think it will go empty. No way. Bogus votes are cast on absentee voters’ name (in this case, your name) and your vote will go to the wrong candidate helping him defeat honest candidates.

And then you will curse the corruption in the system for the next five years.

Please Vote, it is your (and mine) primary national duty.

Making it Count...Part 1

2013-11-10T00:32:00.000+05:30

Sri and her boyfriend Gopal were spending the Saturday with Vini and Neil. The four college mates shared their common passion for movies and great food. Neil was an exchange student in their college from UAE, but fell in love & got married to the effervescent Vini and stayed back in India. During the last four years, he was an integral part of their gang and almost as well versed with India as the other three.

After watching "The Dark Knight rises", which Sri thought was just average, they dug into the Chinese food they had ordered. But soon she was up to their limits of her patience, as the guys had been discussing the boring details (nuances for Neil & Gopal) of the movie for most of the dinner. Sensing Sri was getting bored, the ever alert Vini, deftly veered the discussion to another topic: the present difficult times, money and soon the mood got serious.

Sri glanced onto Vini and Neil who seemed so perfectly in tune with each other. They would always understand each other with even minor nods & glances. Sri sighed, when automatically her brain compared them to herself and Gopal. Now Gopal was a nice person, and she was almost sure she loved him. But in some ways he was still a 10 yr old boy, naughty, naïve, stupid and still stuck with his comics and superheroes. She was sick of the Avengers and the Batman, not to mention the GI Joes and the lot. She suspected he must still have all his childhood toys & comic books stashed at his flat somewhere and played with them each night. Though he was adorably sweet and caring at times, but at other times he drove her crazy that she would have wrung his neck someday.

Neil was saying how he lost a lot of money in the stock markets and for once Vini was admonishing him about being so stupid."Stock markets are always bad" Vini pontificated, "and as Dad says, one must never get involved with them." Both Sri and Neil agreed. Neil's broker friend had initially made him earn good returns on his "Hot tips" but soon Neil was losing more money then he had earlier made, and once even had to take a loan from his parents to pay off his F&O losses.

Both Vini & Sri had similar stories of most people losing out on the stock markets and were glad they had all their savings in sensible Insurance policies and Bank FDs. The dinner was over and the boys made delicious Jaljeera drink while Sri helped Vini clear the table.

So far, Gopal had been mostly silent through the discussion. Vini sensed that he had been quiet so far, and asked him if he disagreed with what they had said.

"Guys, stock market (also known as Equity markets) are certainly something to be careful about, but it is also one of the best places to make money and get that peace of mind only a fat bank balance can give" said Gopal finally." All you gotta do is follow a few basic principals and in all likelihood you will have given yourself a good retirement money pile."

"Principals like what, huh? Which sector are hot to invest in and which to avoid?? This broker vs that broker? Tell you what its all fraud" opined Vini.

"Beware Vini," Sri warned, "dont tempt my Gopal on the most favourite topic of his, or else he will lecture us all night."

"I dont mind the lecture Sri," smiled Neil, "I have been looking forward to buying that new LED TV, and a few tips that actually click will be most welcome." They all laughed.

Gopal took a swig of his Jaljeera, and settled down in the sofa for he knew he would be talking for some time now. But first, he brought out his laptop and showed them this Youtube video by Amol Gupte (particularly known for his 2007 film "Taare Zameen Par" starring Aamir Khan).

You can watch it too, while I gather my thoughts so that I can properly tell you what Gopal told the gang that night.

But all that in a later post.

To be Continued...

Happy Diwali 2013

2013-11-04T01:00:00.003+05:30

Its DIwali time, the festival of lights and this blog wishes all the world a very Happy Diwali.

You know, even though this is a Hindu festival, I believe everybody from around the world can easily relate to it. The preparations begin weeks before, as the whole house is cleaned and decorated. On Diwali day, just light up your house, both inside and outside with diyas(earthen oil lamps) and lo and behold, you are celeberating the festival of lights. Rest all is mostly optional.

BTW, lets spare a thought to the Soldiers at the border, on-duty policemen keeping our towns and cities safe, the truck/taxi/auto drivers, the RAILWAYS STAFF ensuring we reach our destinations, the nurses and doctors manning the hospitals and all those nameless many, who are away from their families just to make our life safer and better.

Here's wishing you a very Happy Diwali from all of us grateful citizens.

The Indefensible

2013-11-02T00:13:00.001+05:30

Sri was loafing around at the Inorbit Mall on a weekend all alone. Her mom had made her come as she wanted to shop for some exotic veggies. Now, normally Sri would have wiggled away, but her mom was a great cook and when you humor her, the rewards were generally delicious. So now she was killing time before the old lady was done with her stuff and Sri could drive her home. Sri was bored, and as usual, hungry.

That was when she saw Natraj (Nat as they called him) her long lost college pal. She hollered at him and once Nat realized who this chubby girl running towards him was, he grinned and waited for her to join him. Soon, they were talking and caching up like the old days over a glass of chilled cold coffee after Sri’s Gola.

After the usual pleasantries, Sri plonked directly to the point. “Where is Vani? Are you guys married yet?” Sri asked mischievously.

Nat and Vani were inseparable in college, and Sri, as well as the whole gang was sure there was something going between them. His reply made Sri almost drop the straw she was shamelessly sucking on after polishing her coffee long back.

” I don’t know yaar. She got married and is not in touch anymore.”
“Why, what happened? Did you two fight? Everyone knew you two were dataing. C’mon spill the beans Nat” coaxed Sri.
“Nothing of the sort, Sri. We were a couple, all right,” Nat smiled wryly “but things changed a lot after college. As you know, I had joined that midsized IT firm after our college and my salary, even though was ok, wasn’t enough to propose marriage to a girl like Vani.”

“So? She loved you stupid, or at least that’s what we all believed” cried Sri.
“I know, and she was the truest person to me. I couldn’t ever imagine, being less than honest with her. You know I come from a very average middle class family, and given the precarious job condition of mine at that time, I wasn’t sure I will be able & ready to marry at that time. I hardly could have provided a good enough future for both of us.”

“But you did fine, didn’t you?”
“Ya, you may say that now. I am more confident of my career skills today than I was back then.”
“But why didn't you ask her to wait?”

“Mm I wasn’t sure how long it would have taken me to be competent enough for us. I did that MCA post our college and took me 4-5 yrs to settle. Her parents were pushing her to marry, you know how much pushy they were, especially her mom. If I hadn’t been able to do well, or made her wait for the 4-5 yrs, I am sure her mom would have boiled and grilled her on a daily basis. I have seen girls waiting a long time for their love, but ultimately it takes a heavy toll on them. You remember Malathi, my cousin don’t you? She waited so long for that dope-head Raja to finally click. He did, eventually, but 7 years of anxiety had taken their toll on poor Malathi. No way I was putting Vani in a similar situation and in so much trouble for my sake.”

“So did you even propose?” Sri’s sandwich has till now soggy, but she was all ears to this idiot in front of her.
“She knew I loved her and I knew she loved me. Why to ask when you know the answer, but are not ready to carry its significance?”
“What a load of bullshit, Nat.” Sri roared.
“I know Sri,” he smiled but his eyes remained sombre, “but remember it was so many years back. I was young, idealistic and stupid. Today, sometimes I wonder if I should have done things differently. Maybe I did make a mistake. But it seemed the most right thing to do at that time.”

Sri’s phone buzzed: her mom was thru the long queue to the payment counter. They exchanged numbers etc and waved each other goodbyes.
“What an idiot and a wimp,” Sri complained aloud. “Nat was still living in the Nineteenth century. Vani was smart and educated; she never needed someone to "provide" for her.”

“Maybe some men are stupid that ways, Sri.” Her mother reasoned, “but sometimes that also makes them more caring and sweet.”

Sri fell silent, she wasn’t angry at Nat. No, just a wee bit sad. Old memory of the ever smiling Nat and the delicately beautiful Vani, laughing and joking with the gang at the canteen flashed in her mind.
What a weird love story.

Unexplained Scenes of Tinker,Tailor,Soldier, Spy explained

2013-10-03T00:39:00.000+05:30

Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy (TTSS) is one of the most ingenious and engaging movie we encountered in a long time. Leisurely crafted and nuancefully executed, the movie is based on the cold war era espionage book of the same name. Much acclaimed, at the 84th Academy Awards it received three nominations: Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Original Score, and Best Actor (Gary Oldman).

Many others have done a great and better job of reviewing the movie, and paid glowing tributes to it. So I don’t think I can add any significant value by reviewing it again.

But I found the movie slow and perplexing at times, and discovered quite a few scenes which though are important but an average viewer like me may miss their purport at first. Below are some of those compilations and their explanation as per my understanding.

Unexplained Scenes:

Smiley getting new Glasses: George Smiley gets his new glasses. The scene is prima facie perplexingly trivial. But to our understanding, the scene is there so that the viewer can distinguish between present events with past ones, where Smiley is wearing his old glasses.
Why Prideux snaps at the school boy: One believes that Prideux was unconsciously seeing his own reflection in the boy and thus surreptitiously grooming him as a protégé. He was coaching the boy in the art of Observation or being a good spy. Remember the scene when he tells him why a man carefully avoiding looking/glancing at their direction despite the din of the school-boys indicates his being “out of ordinary”. Well, when Prideux learns that his BF, HAYDON had betrayed him, he is furious at his own mistake and realizes that if he wasn’t a great spy, he should not initiate his protégé too, in the game of cloak and dagger.
Why Prideux kills “Bill Haydon”: They were gay lovers, which is why Prideux had confided in HAYDON in the first place. The betrayal thus, was more personal than merely professional. Hence the revenge too was personal.
Why Prideux kills the bird instead of letting it fly away: It indicates his own frustration with the system, which decided to kill his spying career once he was compromised, even though Prideux considered himself not at fault for his forced retirement.
The incongruous affair between Ann (Smiley) and HAYDON: Why should Haydon, a high ranker in the “Circus” have an affair with a much older woman (Ann Smiley) and a senior colleague’s wife when his power and position could have easily made him attractive to better (younger and safer) prospects? The answer lies partly with BILL HAYDON’s explanation to Smiley about compromising Smiley’s reason & judgment.

But it also lies partly in the unspoken fact that since HAYDON was gay, for him any physical relation with the opposite sex was essentially equally unappealing. He was only being professional (read professional double agent) .

The scene with the honeybee in the car: Just shows the calculated thought and economical action style of Smiley. He is prepared to wait for his move, and acts in a surgical, effective but non-dramatic style.

Disclaimer:

This post was a result of many a lunch discussions with Ashutosh. While the observation credits are shared, the errors should entirely be mine. Also, these are just fan observations and may be different from what the makers would have intended. I must confess, both of us have not read the book so far, but would like to read it at the first given opportunity.

Weekend Lounge Thoughts: The Real search

2013-09-29T00:10:00.002+05:30

The best self-help book I have come across

I have always maintained that if one has a choice of choosing only ONE self-help book in one's life, then they would have made a good choice if they read just this one book by Viktor Frankl, titled "Man's search for meaning". Came across this book in Stephan Covey's seminal work,"7 Habits of highly effective people". Mr Covey's book will be the second best.

Why a book on this subject?

Many friends express surprise for my liking of such a serious (even morbid, according to a few) book. As it is, i have noticed that in India,the knowledge of the holocaust and understanding of its deep tragedy is often poor, especially with the common average person. Maybe, its because that our nation was busy in its own independence struggle at the time of the WW II and the events preceding it. Nevertheless, let me explain why this book is such a favorite of mine.

The events of Auschwitz concentration camp are harrowing, yes, but Mr Frankl's book has something which hardly any other book can claim to be. The author here, in this case, was living among his subjects and was subjected to the same pain they had to undergo. The camp experience would undoubtedly be one of the most difficult and tough things endured by any human being, in the modern era.

And so a survivor's memoirs and his observations, especially one that is unbiased by personal emotions and motives, became that much more valid and irrefutable, than say any other author who gives gyan on how to deal with obstacles and hardships of life sitting in his warm and cozy house, his stomach full and his glass empty.

So what does it say?
Well, i would be doing the slim book an injustice if i try to paraphrase it further. Still some of my favorite passages are when Frankl tells you that ultimately only those who have a why to live, can find a how to survive. And only those who have a strong reason to live have better chances to survive in the face of ultimate hardships.

But how to find a reason for your existence?

Well, that's the golden question and each one have to find their own answer to that one. But what surely does help you is when you realise and exercise the power to choose your attitude, your power to choose your reaction to any given event.

For example a camp guard can threaten or hit an inmate, punish him by making him do back-breaking hard labor but the prisoner still has the power to choose to maintain his self respect, be positive about life, his ability to see & be happy from the beauty of nature, his ability to love, hopefully without succumbing to hallucinations. If he can do that, he would have exercised that will.

I will say no more, because i feel my message delivery is like croak of a frog against the real narrative which flows like music. There are much more in the book, and i strongly recommend reading it.

I also recommend Life is beautiful, Schindler's List and Escape from Sobibor as nice films to learn more about those times. Not all are bleak. The first is a comedy(of sorts).

PS: Mein Kampf, the book penned by Adolf Hitler, is strangely one of the most popular books on roadside vendors across India. A few, non-illiterate politicians have even tried to paint themselves to be as "patriotic" as Hitler. You can visit here to know why anybody who aspires to be Hitler is either a lunatic or plain dangerous.

Need I say more, about the need to know about the fate of those six million Jews killed in the holocaust and the need to LEARN from the mistakes of mankind's past?

Book Name: Man's Search for Meaning

Author: Viktor Frankl

Total Pages: 184 pages

ISBN-10: 080701429X
ISBN-13: 978-0807014295