Green Gambit

Suspect forecasters have a long history

2012-02-14T11:45:00.003Z

Over the last couple of years several media outlets, most notably the Daily Mail, Mail on Sunday, and the Telegraph have been using a commercial weather forecasting service called Positive Weather Solutions (PWS) to give them the ammunition for such sensationalist headlines as;

After a glorious autumn... Britain prepares for Siberian freeze in just weeks (1)

Just after Christmas Guardian columnist George Monbiot began to question the credentials of such services including PWS and provider Exacta Weather. After further investigation Monbiot revealed what I think many people such as myself who had been on the PWS website had long suspected; that there was deception afoot. At the time the PWS website listed 8 forecasters and experts that they used to create their forecasts; it turns out not only were the photographs of these "experts" stock images from a Google search, but that most if not all of them did not exist! Promptly after Monbiot's inquiries the actual person behind PWS, Jonathan Powell, took the decision to close the business.

Further Monbiot suggests there is a subtext to certain media outlets use of certain commercial weather services:

The Met Office, like the BBC, is the subject of intense tabloid hostility, because it refuses to accept the consensus in the rightwing press that man-made climate change is a myth. Perversely, it prefers to rely on data. The incompetence of the Met Office and the superior skills of other forecasters are now part of the litany of climate change denial. Weather forecasting, in the hands of the press, has become a political science.(2)

Firstly I would like to congratulate Mr Monbiot on an excellent piece of investigative journalism. However, although weather forecasting does have a long political history I think he may have been rather blinkered in bringing a right versus left element into this story. As in the recent past both the BBC and even if somewhat gingerly the Guardian have used PWS's forecasts. Maybe it is just a case of such services forecasting what the media (or public) wants to hear?!

PWS became popular with the press because they were happy to stick their neck out on long range and speculative forecasts. Many of the articles they are quoted in have a fairly tempered quote from the Met Office or other weather forecasters such as Meteogroup followed by a more sensationalist claim from PWS. Longer range forecasting has large amounts of uncertainty inherent in it, especially when using ensemble forecasting techniques. Whilst such problems led to the Met Office's BBQ summer fiasco, and the subsequent withdrawal of Met Office seasonal forecasts attempts to forecast the weather beyond the immediate future have a long and colourful history.

The Bartlett Brothers predict the summer's weather in 1947. Source: British Pathe

This wonderful clip from 1947 shows professional consultants the Bartlett Brothers trying to predict when Britain's proverbial one week of summer will occur. The footage reveals little of the Brother's methods of creating such a forecast and considering that in the period few meteorologists thought it possible to predict beyond a few days ahead, we can consider their efforts speculative at best.

Both the forecasters in 1947 and those questioned by Monbiot seem to operate on a similar speculative basis with little transparency of data, or method. Yet those in 1947 seem to go about it with a more light-hearted and whimsical air. Maybe I just have rose-tinted glasses on, or maybe, just maybe the public expectation surrounding such long range forecasting was much more realistic in 1947.

Comments as ever are welcomed,
Thanks, Alex

Building the internet of the future

2012-01-24T13:50:00.000Z

As someone who is a bit of a sci-fi geek, ever since I first got the internet way back in the mid 90's I have daydreamed about a dystopian future, where those who opted out of internet access due to privacy fears become some kind of second class citizens. (Imagine Arnie in Running Man, but set in Britain with an eccentric anti-hero trying to lead the neo-luddites to revolt, fighting for access to basic welfare......sorry I digress!)

With the recent (and much overdue) ascent to the headlines of the US Protect IP Act (PIPA) and Stop Online Piracy Act (SOPA) my daydreams of how the internet may shape our future have moved into a more metered and realistic realm. Whilst I may not have the technological know how of some authors who have made predictions about its development, I believe that lay users of any technology may be the best placed to develop such things in new interesting directions.

Obviously I believe the internet to be an amazing invention that has truly revolutionised our lives. Yet like many I am beginning to see the potential for lost opportunities, and the increasing threat of future surveillance via online methods. Such rhetoric can often seem like the fantastical musings of conspiracy theorists, so I will leave this side of the debate alone and suggest those interested check out Jonathon Zittrain's Future of the Internet.

I wish to focus on much more benign areas of the internet, for whilst we may constantly pat ourselves on the back for such a great technological development, yesterday I was reminded of one of its many limitations. The historians mantra, "you can't Google everything." Using any reputable search engine, enter in "Dr Arthur Davies." What comes up? Can you tell me much about Dr (& also Sir) Arthur Davies? Well for for nearly a quarter of the last century he was the Secretary General of the World Meteorological Organization (10 points if you found that from just searching his name!)

OK, I understand that it is quite a niche example, but its illustrative purpose is to show that a man who only died in 1990, who served at the highest level of a global UN body for 24 years has virtually no online profile. This isn't a problem, and I'm not advocating the digitising of every historical document. What I am saying is that this should remind us all that the internet is merely one place to get information, not the only place we should use to build a balanced composite view of the world.

Further, I think we all as individuals need to envision what we want the internet of the future to look like. The internet has a great ability to empower local, community, collaborative, progressive, valuable grass-roots resources and thus we need to continue to be creative with such initiatives. For whilst online shopping is great, and online grocery shopping may have become a vital lifeline for those less mobile in society- it is user led initiatives which make me excited about the future of the internet.

Zittrain calls such initiatives, "netizenship" and cites Wikipedia as an example of one such site which has managed to remain true to its original collaborative vision despite its success. I understand both the beauty and the limitations of Wikipedia, but think it is just the starting point for what is possible.

Imagine a website where after your home is flooded you can go online and map onto it the extent of the floods reach in your immediate vicinity. The site then builds a composite map of the floods as more users input data. Over time the site becomes a repository for past flood events, providing a historical picture of flooding in an area. The homeowner can look at past flood maps, read accounts from previous flood victims, and consider how land use change may have affected the risk. There is no longer a reliance on government or insurance company generated flood risk maps, and the homeowner may be able to see the extent of a flood before the new defences were built, highlighting the residual risk should these defences fail.

This is just one basic idea I have come up with quickly. Many future developments may not be a website per se but merely an application, or plug-in attached to a social networking site such as Twitter. Here are some sites already in existence which I think are awesome, and show some of the potential for the future:

Weather Spark - Interactive weather graphs that allow you to pan and zoom through the entire history of any weather station on earth. Get multiple forecasts for the current location, overlaid on records and averages to put it all in context.

Mass Observation Online - Digitisation of the Mass Observation programme which has captured people's perception on key social issues since 1937.

Quake Stories - Share your photos and stories of the Canterbury earthquakes

Megaprojects New Media - New media representations of people living amidst Canadian megaprojects.

Screen grab from Weathersparks.com - online interactive weather information. Source

The potential for interactive, locally relevant, and innovative web applications means the list of such ideas is endless. All who work, think, and write within the humanities should consider how their research could benefit the world via the internet. For whilst such websites exist and thrive, those who wish to control, restrain, and monetise every corner of the internet will never succeed.

Let's prove my dystopian daydreams of the future wrong!

Singing from the roof tops about the disaster!

2012-01-03T17:54:00.000Z

First of all may I wish a Happy New Year to one and all, I hope 2012 brings you prosperity and joy (obviously in a sustainable manner!)

A few months back I wrote about how humans have traditionally remembered disaster across generations (whether a war or a flood) by using markers, monuments, and in more recent times websites. In that post I noted that one of the oldest forms of commemorating such events in a civilisation is through oral stories and folk songs.

Over the Christmas break I was talking to a friend about my blog and some of my thoughts on cultural memories of disaster. I brought up how the village of Fudai was spared from the destruction wreaked by the 2011 Japanese tsunami because of traditional stories of previous disasters passed down to their former mayor. Here in this small fishing port in Iwate prefecture the 51 foot wall, a "folly" of previous mayor Wamura, finally became a symbol of protection in the face of harm rather than a waste of taxpayers' money. Wamura's conviction which was fuelled by his experience in the tsunami of 1933 and tales told by his family of tsunamis from earlier times was finally (and sadly) vindicated.

Wamura's folly, now Fudai's saving grace - the 51 foot tsunami wall. Source - ©Associated Press

As the conversation moved onto broader notions of how myth, story, and of course song can transfer knowledge of important events between generations, my friend rather glibly stated that it was a shame this didn't happen anymore. He said, "When was the last time you heard a song on the radio about an actual flood rather than some whiney song about a flood of love."

True maybe, but they do exist. The second side of Kate Bush's Hounds of Love album, the Ninthwave, is about drowning, and although never confirmed by the singer, seems to have been influenced by the Fastnet disaster of 1979. In the song And Dream of Sheep, Bush, sings;

"Oh, I'll wake up
To any sound of engines,
Ev'ry gull a seeking craft.
I can't keep my eyes open--
Wish I had my radio."

A stanza that chillingly echoes the experiences of many sailors caught up in the storm that decimated the sailing race off the south coast of England. Having a radio aboard wasn't compulsory in British offshore yacht racing in the period, only becoming so in the aftermath of Fastnet 1979.

Much more explicitly commemorating a disaster is the song Canvey Island by the English band British Sea Power. The song commemorates the devastating floods which killed over 50 people in the community and over 300 nationwide in January, 1953. Below is a video of the band speaking about the song and performing it live on Canvey Island for the BBC's Countryfile show in 2008:

British Sea Power on BBC Countryfile in 2008. Source © BBC

Whilst these songs may not be hits which trouble the likes of Rihanna and co. for radio airtime, my friend couldn't accept that they play a role in creating a cultural memory of disaster events. His argument went along the lines of well if most of the population haven't heard the song or aren't aware what it is about then it can't add to any tangible, useful, memory of events.

Yet this line of reasoning misunderstands how such cultural artefacts are absorbed into the milieu of a society. It only takes one grandparent to play Canvey Island to his grandchild who goes on to be mayor, or a flood engineer in the region to give such a cultural memory a "useful" purpose. Even beyond this remembering disasters can infuse into a society in much less tangible ways - stories of water lapping at the Houses of Parliament in 1928 persisted enough in the circles of government for the Thames Flood Barrier to be belatedly built in the 1980s.

I think there is a worry in the modern world that our lives are now so fast paced and transient, that important memories connected to a specific place are quickly lost. Those who worry of such loss of tradition and culture can today take reassurance that at least in some small way the avant-garde musicians of these fair isles are doing their best to commemorate such important events from our recent past.

If any readers know of any folk stories or songs which commemorate or warn of a disaster please let me know.

Blame it on the weatherman!

2011-12-12T22:36:00.000Z

Still don't know what to get that weather obsessed friend of yours for Christmas? Look no further than a new clothing range launched by the Met Office in collaboration with ethical clothing company Rapanui. The range, which depicts common weather symbols with light hearted alterations, such as a cloud symbol on top of an ice cream cone, highlights how embedded the weather is to the average citizen of the UK.

As this soggy windswept isle battens down the hatches for a night of forecast gales across the south and west of the country, with 'be aware' severe weather warnings in place, one of the t-shirts in particular stood out.

The Met Office Heavy Blame Tee - Source: Rapanui Clothing

The Met Office Heavy Blame tee is accompanied by the following blurb:

"We love to blame it on the weatherman, especially on rainy days. As heavy rain leads to heavy blame, the public points a cloudy finger at our meteorological heroes. At the end of the day it's all in good fun, its part of our culture and this tee celebrates it!"

As someone whose research investigates this public finger pointing of blame toward meteorologists the acceptance of the existence of such a cultural phenomena by the Met Office is important. Not that it is something peculiarly new; for as long as meteorologists have had the knowledge to forecast reasonably accurately future weather systems, they have had to accept that the public will blame them when said predictions are incorrect.

Indeed the first attempts at providing the general public with weather forecasts in the UK were short lived when in 1866 a parliamentary inquiry led by Francis Galton, ruled that the forecasts weren't generally correct, that the service had no utility and should be withdrawn.(1)

By the post war years meteorologists experiences of forecasting to the general public had led to considerations of how best to communicate uncertainty and risk to the man on the street. New services such as TV forecasting and high street weather centres provided the general public in the UK with a much more visual understanding of the forecasts, but alas blame still quickly emerged when forecasts went awry.

The most well known case of blaming it on the weatherman occured in October, 1987 when a storm devestated the south of England. The Met Office TV forecaster Michael Fish (in)famously stating that, "earlier today apparently a lady rang the BBC and said she heard that there was a hurricane on the way. Well don't worry if you're watching, there isn't." The media and public severely attacked Fish and the Met Office's forecast- subsequently Fish has argued that his comment was taken out of context and that he was made a scapegoat for the whole episode.

The complexities of how and why the public, media, or politicians direct blame to forecasts, forecasters or forecasting organisations are manifold- I've not spent 3 years researching such things for simple fun! Yet one thing which always strikes me is the number of times in these cases that the Met Office (or other forecasting body) has actually got the bulk of the forecast spot-on and in fact the blame has arisen out of a mis-communication of the risks and uncertainties involved in forecasting something as dynamic as the weather.

So maybe the Met Office should be less accepting of the blame it receives than its new t-shirt suggests? Instead considering why public forecasts contain very little mention of probability, risk, and uncertainty. Whatever they do, I'm sure the British publics' mantra will remain that sang by the late 90's Irish girl band B*Witched who so eloquently chirped, "wont blame it on myself, blame it on the weatherman."

(1) - Storm Warnings for Seafarers by M. Walker RMS History Group Part 1 in Issue No.3, 2009 and Part 2 in issue No.1, 2010

When death is eliminated, birth becomes a disease. *

2011-11-23T01:46:00.000Z

Toward the end of October the UN declared to the world’s media and global community that the global human population now numbered 7 billion.

The exact identity of child numero 7,000,000,000 is impossible to ascertain, some experts even suggest we wont actually meet this milestone of human progress for several months; but let's not get bogged down in statistics. Whether we are 7 billion in number or soon to be, the event presented an opportunity to highlight to the world the many achievements, problems, and challenges that are caused by and accompany our ever burgeoning population.

As coverage was plastered all over the media, like here and here, and given that regular readers of my blog will know my thoughts on population (here), I felt no personal need to comment on such an occasion. That is, until today, when consumed in the basement archives of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado I came across an analogy and article (1) vaguely remembered from my undergraduate study.

The parable, originally published in 1978 (2), provides I think stark and fitting context as we fast ascend beyond 7 billion humans on our space rock Earth.

The Bugs in a Bottle:
Just suppose we have a hypothetical colony of bugs which live inside a bottle. The bugs double in population every minute. At 11:00am there are 2 bugs, at 11:01am 4, 11:02am 8... and onwards you get the picture. At 12:00 midday we observe that, dang, the bottle is full!

A hypothetical beetle entering a hypothetical bottle. Source

'Oh another paper thin metaphor relating the huuuge complexities of humanity into a ridiculously simple system!' – I hear you cry (well persevere I implore you.)

OK so let’s consider 3 questions;

1- At what time is the bottle half full?

Easy peasy – 1 minute before midday

2- If you were a bug in the bottle at what point do you think you would realise that the bottle is running out of space?

Well this one’s going to depend on how bright a bug you are, but let’s consider 11:55am when the bottle is 3% full and 97% lovely open space. I imagine at this point if you raise any concerns some of the other bugs are going to tell you about how they think technology will save the day, as it has done throughout the last few minutes. Anyhow we can’t be certain of the future and just how many bugs can live in the bottle- so let’s not act. However it’s now 11:58am and some super clever bugs have just proven with certainty that there are only 2 minutes left. All of the bugs’ resources are diverted to finding a new bottle to live in, miraculously at 11:59am not one but three new empty bottles are found!

And so the third question...

3- How much longer does this amazing discovery give the bug colony?

You worked it out? – Only 2 more minutes!

I’m not going to spend too much time interpreting Bartlett’s analogy; I’m not even going to insist it is a parable per se. A more realistic story may start adding facts like that the North of the bottle only makes up 20% of the population but uses 80% of all the goods and food the bugs need, etc...

But let’s avoid complexity; the power of this metaphor is how its simplicity highlights the arithmetic of population growth. Time to move away from systems that favour growth over welfare?

To explore more go to this site. Take from it what you will.

Comments welcome,
Alex

* - The title of this blog is an anonymous quote I read in a magazine article sometime ago, a quick Google search has failed to find an attribution

1- Anthes, R.A., 1993: The Global Trajectory. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 74 (6) 1121-1130

2- Bartlett, A. A., 1978: Forgotten Fundamentals of the Energy Crises. Am. J. Phys. 46 (9), 876-888

Let's talk about flooding...

2011-10-27T13:58:00.000+01:00

I read with interest yesterday that the Environment Agency- as part of a consortium of organisations- have launched a new support network on the social networking site Facebook for those affected by flooding in the UK. The Flood Group UK page aims to help people prepare for flooding, support them in the aftermath of flooding, and perhaps most importantly, offers a forum where people can share their experiences of flooding.
The page also contains a directory of useful flood information and real time flood warnings for England and Wales (as shown below.)

Flood Warning Page - taken from the Flood Group UK Facebook page

As someone who has become extremely exacerbated with the huge influx of businesses and corporations onto social networking sites (apparently 246,306 people "like" the high street store Argos!) I am pleased to see these new online spaces being used for more positive initiatives than simply trying to flog people more stuff. Especially when such initiatives look to increase both communities risk perception and their resilience to the threat of flooding; for me (and many others) a vital step towards communities that can live in balance with natural flood cycles.

The development of such community dialogues is for me imperative. Recently prominent figures (such as Al Gore) have been trying to categorically link increasing extreme weather events, such as flooding, to anthropogenic climate change. This approach for me is dangerous and fails to account for the huge social dimensions of flooding- there are more of us, living increasingly on floodplains, with more water management systems in place than ever before. (Check out Roger Pielke's blog post, "Are US Floods Increasing? The Answer is Still No.")

The debate about whether increases in flooding are caused by changes in climate (human caused or not) or because more of use choose to live in the path of such risks will no doubt rage on. (My hunch is maybe its a combination of both elements?!) While others continue to debate, let's hope that initiatives such as the new Flood Group page on Facebook go some way to reducing the disruption and cost that flooding in the UK continues to cause to people's lives.

If you think your home may be at risk, or you want to learn more about flooding in the UK go "like" the Facebook page, only 101 people have thus far- quite a way to go before flooding is as popular as a high street store.

Making a mess of the weather....

2011-09-26T18:43:00.000+01:00

Weather forecasts on the BBC news can be a little on the dry side (unlike their American counterparts), so as a bit of a weather geek I always looked forward to the segment when it was presented by the enigmatic and often aloof Tomasz Schafernaker. A modern day, better dressed answer to Michael Fish, Schafernaker has become infamous for his numerous slip-ups and bloopers live on air, most notably in 2010 when he inadvertently flipped viewers the bird (see below).

So imagine my dissappointment when in late 2010, Schaffernaker - who had recently posed on the cover of Attitude Active magazine and won "Best TV Weather Presenter" at the TRIC awards - was taken off the news bulletin as part of a BBC "cost-cutting" re-organisation. (I'll leave readers to draw their own conclusions on this decision...)*

Well Tomasz if you're out there (and for some unknown reason you are reading the blog of a procrastinating graduate student) I just wanted to let you know that you are in good company. For the very first TV weather forecaster in the UK, George Cowling wasn't immune to the occassional on air mishap.

Some of the older readers may remember Cowling who presented the national BBC weather from the format's launch in January, 1954 until 1957. In November, 1956 Cowling was reprimanded after airing his grievances with the BBC's shortening of the weekend forecasts live on air:

Source: Authors own research. BBC written archives. ©BBC

Unfortunately no recorded footage of these early televised weather forecasts is in existence and so we can't compare Cowling's technique which was alluded to by one BBC member of staff as being frivolous and innuendo laden, to that of the modern day presenter. However after looking over transcripts of some early forecasts I can assure you that however innuendo laden Cowling's forecasts, the 1950s presenter would today sound very square indeed.

Nevertheless, George Cowling, TV weather pioneer and possibly the first man in the UK to slag off his bosses live on air, we salute you!

And I am happy to say that far from dissappearing from our screens Tomasz can now be found on many new exciting TV projects related to the weather.

The UK's best job?

2011-09-07T18:11:00.000+01:00

Jon Bennett, is a Fell Top Assessor.

"A what?!" I faintly hear you murmur into your tea/coffee/fair trade organic smoothie.

Helvellyn dusted in snow. ©Simom Ledingham

A Fell Top Assessor is well exactly what one may presume it is. Jon's job is to ascend Helvellyn, the third highest peak in England, everyday to provide weather and ground conditions to hikers, climbers, and others who use the area for recreation.

The Guardian have an excellent piece on his daily routine and an interview with the man himself conducted whilst he goes about his business, both well worth the click.

Whilst I am bogged down, locked away writing (or attempting to write) a chapter for my thesis, this job, the antithesis of my present lifestyle sounds like heaven to me. In case Jon needs cover when he goes on holiday- I know the region well (ish), I know my way around an anemometer, and I could regale those I pass on the slopes with tales about postwar meteorology....

Lest we forget.....(or how to remember disaster)

2011-08-23T12:27:00.000+01:00

I am from a small suburb, in a large conurbation- once it was an isolated village. One of the only contemporary signs of its rural past is the village green at its centre. Located on one corner of this green is a modest memorial recording the names of the fallen in WWI & WWII.

Gatley War Memorial.

Source: Brahmall Hall Family History

So far, so normal; a sight repeated thousands of times up and down the United Kingdom, from small sites like the one above to large cenotaphs. Humans are definitely good at commemorating our deceased, creating a cultural memory of our recent history.

When it comes to naturally triggered disasters, a flood, a storm, or such we are much less likely to build a memorial, commemorative statue, or monument than for fallen comrades. Yet creating an inter-generational memory of such events is often important for a community's survival. Knowing that X Street is liable to flooding in the spring, or that old farmer Joe's field has never been built on because it is susceptible to sink-holes can save time, money, and most importantly life.

Traditional methods for creating such generation to generation memories of disaster have long existed from folk stories & songs, nearly every major world religion has a "deluge" story, to simple flood markers such as those dotted around Paris which show the height of the 1910 floods.

The entrance to St Margarets Church, Kings Lynn.

Source: Baxter (2005)

The above picture shows one such flood marker in Kings Lynn, Norfolk (UK)- highlighted are the water levels from floods in 1953, the worst natural disaster in twentieth century Britain, and almost a foot above this marker the level of the less well known 1978 floods. Clearly showing the importance of such a regional memory, reminding locals the area surrounding this church has had water higher than the national disaster of 1953 which claimed over 300 lives.

While flood markers and other traditional methods of commemorating and remembering disaster still have a role within society I am fascinated by attempts to modernise the collation and creation of such memories. A great example of such a project arrived in my inbox the other day.

Quake Stories is a website created by the New Zealand Ministry for Culture and Heritage which allows users to log on and record their memories of the Canterbury earthquakes which devestated Christchurch and the surrounding region in late 2010 and early 2011.

One man's quake memory (follow the link for the full story)

Source: Quake Stories

This website, like others used in recent large scale disaster, serves a great purpose both for the immediate cathartic needs of the afflicted communities but also in the long term creation of a cultural memory of events.

Whether the modern method to commemorate disaster using a website will prevail as long as a traditional folk tale or the markers in St Margarets Church remains to be seen. Although hopefully they will as the project is partnered with Christchurch City Libraries and the National Library in an attempt to ensure the stories are preserved beyond their etheral existence in cyber-space.

More of a worry than how long these memories of the earthquakes will last, is whether future generations will heed their lessons. For in Kings Lynn only metres away from markers which commemorate the level and frequency of past floods- are shops, homes, and businesses built by almost every generation since the church was constructed some 900 years ago.

A cultural memory of a disaster is important. Heeding its lessons can be imperative.

Winds of change: From the Titanic to turbines

2011-07-22T14:47:00.000+01:00

On a recent short break to Belfast, I was fascinated to visit the famous ship building docks of the city that in their heyday rang to the sound of over 30,000 workers labouring to create some of the most technologically advanced and luxurious ships the world had seen.1

One of the most prestigious shipbuilding names to come out of Belfast, is Harland and Wolff, founded in 1861 the company quickly became the largest and most progressive shipbuilders in the city. In the early twentieth century they were commissioned by White Star Line to build the record breaking Olympic class liners; Olympic, Titanic and Britannia. Often overshadowed by her more famous sister it is perhaps RMS Olympic who went on to have the more fascinating career- surviving a collision months after her launch, a mutiny over lifeboat provision in 1912, and ramming & sinking a German U-boat whilst serving under the admiralty in WWI.

Knocking off at H&W, with the incomplete Titanic looming in the background.

Source: Wikimedia Commons

Throughout WWII and beyond Harland and Wolff continued to establish their reputation as progressive, forward thinking engineers. Shifting the emphasis of their operations in the second half of the century away from traditional shipbuilding to new growth areas such as offshore oil and gas operations. Their gargantuan gantry cranes Samson and Goliath, built in 1974 and 1969 respectively, tower over Belfast a testament to H&W- constructed at a time when the UK shipbuilding industry was in near terminal decline.

The colossal Samson and Goliath gantry cranes
Source: Wikimedia Commons

With this rich record of visionary engineering and progressive leadership in Harland and Wolff's locker it shouldn't have surprised me when I was clambering to get as close as possible to Belfast's guardian cranes to see the sight captured below. In a probable reaction to the confused look on my face, my girlfriend commented, "maybe they're ship propellers?"
- "no way José I retorted"- as a bit of a geek I knew that these were indeed wind turbine propellers.

The cranes on my visit, with parts of a wind turbine circled
Source: Authors own ©.

That evening back at the hotel I took advantage of the free wi-fi (about the only free thing at our budget chain lodge of travel) and sure enough discovered that H&W were now fully embracing the renewable revolution occurring off the shores of Western Europe. It makes sense. Their machinery, engineering expertise, and building capacity developed initially for shipbuilding, then tweaked to the demands of offshore oil and gas projects are perfectly suited to the construction of offshore wind-farms.

In fact about 75% of Harland and Wolff's business is now offshore renewable based, and it seems the shipbuilding leviathan's change in direction wont be a lonely one with household multinationals such as Mitsubishi and Siemens entering the offshore renewable arena.

It seems that the innovative nature first imbued in the company by its founders (Edward Harland was the first shipbuilder to make an upper deck of iron rather than wood) is alive and well. Long may the wind fuel the sales of those companies who dare to innovate and progress.

1 - see www.belfasthistory.net or www.belfast-titanic.com for an overview of the shipping heritage of Belfast

The ultimate bad day at the office....(the death of a species)

2011-06-15T15:10:00.001+01:00

Just a quick post:
How's your working week going? Had a bad day at the office?

More specifically have you ever left work with a sinking feeling that you didn't send that email, or that you didn't submit that important report to your boss?

Well for those of you that have, spare a thought for the zookeeper at Hobart Zoo who in 1936 made one grave work based error...

Hobart Zoo in 1936 was home to the last known Thylacine (more commonly known to you and me as the Tasmanian Tiger), a carnivorous marsupial once found all over, Australia, Tasmania and New Guinea.

Thylacines in Washington D.C Zoo ~1906

The very last Thylcaine (posthumously named Benjamin) was found dead on the 7th September, 1936 the purported cause...the zookeeper had forgotten to open its sleeping quarters and thus exposure had killed the last of such a majestic species.

For more on this beautiful animal please see the wikipedia article or go to your local library and get out this excellent book, or indeed this one.
So much has been written on the thylacine that I don't have that much to add other than to say watch this haunting footage taken at Hobart Zoo in 1933:

Whilst sightings of the Thylacine persist to this day it seems that the creature is lost to the annals of history - a reminder for us all of how irreversible human actions can be.

Comments as ever welcome

Public talk on the volcanic ash cloud

2011-05-26T13:22:00.000+01:00

Last April I blogged about the fall-out (excuse the pun!) from the Eyjafjallajökull volcanic eruption which grounded planes across much of Western Europe, seemingly grinding our oh so busy, oh so important international lifestyles to a halt.

Well with another Icelandic volcano (this time the much more pronouncable Grimsvotn) looming large again in the news, threatening to hit us with round two of air disruptions why don't you learn more about the eruption and why the ash affected us so badly by coming to the following event:

The talk, organised by the Royal Meteorlogical Society is next Tuesday (31st) at Manchester Metropolitan University and is FREE!

So if your still vexed, confused, or indeed intrigued about the volcano that no-one can pronounce and its crippling grasp on European air travel, come along next week.

If you've got any questions or comments, in the words of Gwen Stefani, Holla Back!
Alfie

Named in honour of the weather....

2011-03-28T16:23:00.000+01:00

What's your name?

Whether you are called, Bob, Jane, Herbert or Paris, have you ever considered the amount of cultural baggage that comes with something as simple as a name?

Whilst at a recent research network workshop which aimed to develop ideas of how everyday culture captures and embeds a memory of past weather and climate in society, I was forced to think a little further on the cultural significance of these simple monikers bequeathed to us by our parents upon our birth.

The research network, The Cultural Spaces of Climate investigates how cultural traditions such as storytelling, art, the media, memorials and even place names provide a record of events such as floods, droughts and even everyday banal weather such as drizzle.

Dr Cerys Jones, from the University of Aberyswyth was speaking about; Language, Culture and the Welsh Weather. She started by asking how many names do you know that relate to weather - cue audience responses such as Blizzard, Snow, Flood etc...

No - not surnames, how many first names do you know? ----Silence.

It seemed an odd question for someone who only speaks English. Errrrm.... Dawn?!

But of course the title of the talk included the fair land the French call Pays de Galle; Wales. Dr Jones then informed us there are plethora of christian names in the Welsh language which relate to weather, traditional names such as;

Haf (m) and Hefin (f) - Welsh for summer (OK one we have this one for females in English, I tut at not thinking of this one when the initial question was asked!)
Eira (f) - the word for snow
Enfys (m & f) - rainbow
Tesni (f) - warmth from the sun

Further there are names which have appeared in the last few years such as Heulog (m & f) - sunny, and most interestingly Glaw (m & f) which means of all things rain!

Until the final name, Glaw, all of the names listed are most commonly thought of as positive phenomena, having intrinsic beauty.

What does having so many weather related names in common parlance, tell us about Welsh culture? Further when presented in stark contrast against the absence of similar names in English - what does this tell is about each country's relationship with their natural environments?

The existence of Welsh weather related names suggests that the weather is traditionally an important part of everyday Welsh life. In what historically has been a predominantly rural nation, which often receives the brunt of Atlantic weather systems this may come as no huge surprise.

The continued popularity of these names and the creation of new ones, show us that the weather is still a key component of Welsh culture. Despite a modern lifestyle which puts the majority of the population within the managed realms of urban Britain many parents still choose to name their offspring after the external unpredictable elements which happen outside of their central heated lives.

If you think that the cultural quirk of having lots of weather related names is fascinating consider the cultural norms of the Philippines where nicknames such as BumBum are popular, and there is even a politician called Joker!

Its a shame that most modern name trends seem driven by celebrity culture and not the everyday beauty of our environments - who knows one day I may have the brass to call a child of my own drizzle!

Alfie x

Obsessed with numbers & facts, but blinded by arrogance...

2011-01-21T11:21:00.001Z

Just a quick post today, as I'm fast disappearing under a pile of paper, books and tea mugs on my desk.

I just came across this article, and whilst in itself it's a fairly innocuous, typical example of a lazy journalist re-hashing a press release from the Met Office - the response of readers in the comments section has provoked me to type.

For those of you who can't be bothered reading the article (from the Telegraph online) it can be summed up from the headline; "2010 was coldest year since 1986 says Met Office."

For the general sentiment 90% of the comments purvey I shall leave you in the capable hands of comment scrawler turtlesnapper,

"Another Warmist claim debunked by real Science - drought in Australia and the current Queensland floods are caused by normal climate variations connected with ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) .The research and published papers show that warmist claims these have been caused by 'climate change' not only have no foundation but are completely wrong."

Basically the comments fall into 3 (or 4) categories;
1- the earth isn't warming,
2- man isn't effecting global climate
3- the scientists are lying to tie in with political ends
(4- all of the above)

Now - while I have my own opinion on this, the focus of this post is not the unfounded anti climate change sentiments.

Rather, I can't help feeling that society as a whole has really missed the main picture in all of this debacle.

Over the last 200 years (give or take a couple) we have become infatuated with the ability of scientific "fact" to be able to show us the path of progress. We have become blinded to the reality that scientific development is as much guided by philosophical, religious and political belief as is our system of law.

I don't want the scientists (and armchair telegraph comment leavers) to stop interrogating data and progressing theories on how global climate operates. I simply want us all to step back and maybe re-frame the argument in a wider context.

Man is part of our environment - for nearly 200 years we have been trying to tell ourselves that we are above it, separate from it, superior to it. Yet for all our manipulation and "management" of the natural environment are we more resilient to climates extremes?

Year on year does flooding not cost us more?

Philosophically we need to re-frame the climate change debate.

-Do we think we should be living in the manner we are currently?
-Do we believe fossil fuels will go on forever sustaining our current levels of industrial output?
-Do we believe that population can continue to grow indefinitely?

Its time for humanity to stop being so arrogant about our actions. Let us continue to progress, not only economically & scientifically, but more importantly let us progress morally and philosophically.

Comments as ever welcome.
Alfie

Never trust an economist....(even if he does have a Nobel prize)

2010-10-22T10:44:00.000+01:00

Yesterday evening, like about 100 other individuals, I was fortunate enough to attend a lecture by Nobel Prize winning economist Tom Schelling, at the Midland Hotel in Manchester.

Schelling is an economist who cut his teeth in tough and austere times, working for the US government on the Marshall Plan in the late 1940s and early 50s. Therefore I was under no disillusions that his default barometer would be the economists friend....cost.

My contact with Schelling's work however, was not through his early work in the US government or through his Nobel Prize winning additions to Game Theory.

Rather Schelling to me is someone who was appointed by President Carter in 1980 to chair a committee on what was then dubbed, "the carbon dioxide problem," (1) subsequently penning a chapter; policy and welfare implications of climate change, in a National Academy of Sciences Report on the topic. He is someone who has helped move the debate on climate change and it's abatement from woolly notion to economic truth.

So a lecture hosted by the Sustainable Consumption Institute with the title, "Climate Change: the Missing Institutions," (2) indeed grabbed my attention.

So ably flanked by my friend from the business school to provide a good solid monetary based balance to my reactionary environmental mind - I attended.

Expectant of talk of and extensions on his ideas about how international co-operation and policy needs to progress to control carbon emissions. Ideas presented in an essay What Makes Greenhouse Sense? in his 2007 collection - Strategies of Commitment and Other Essays.

Instead his lecture focused on the next essay in this collection - The Economic Diplomacy of Geo-engineering, and clearly his thoughts on this matter have come a long way since 2007!

Geo-engineering is basically the conception of global, large scale engineering projects thats ultimate aims are to alter the planet's climate to benefit humans. They range from the not too crazy, such as encouraging phytoplankton blooms in the ocean to capture carbon dioxide, to the straight off Star Trek, such as putting millions of reflectors into orbit around the earth to deflect sunlight! (Wikipedia can give you a fairly quick intro)

Schelling decided to focus on one area of geo-engineering, Solar Radiation Management (SRM), and further on one area of this idea - atmospheric aerosols. In English, this basically boils down to the concept that if we put lots of stuff like sulphur into the upper atmosphere it will reflect sunlight and thus cool the globe. Its what is known to have happened after major volcanic eruptions such as Pinatubo in 1991 and to a greater extent, Krakatoa in 1883.

Schelling glossed over several key issues in his discussion of SRM, as he, "wasn't an expert." Flippant phrases such as, but I'm not an atmospheric chemist, and but I'm not an expert on diplomatic policy immediately set some alarm bells ringing in my head.

He emphasised the imperative need to move to field tests of the ideas surrounding pumping lots of sulphur into the upper atmosphere to cool us down. As far as I'm aware several atmospheric scientists already do this kind of research both modelling and testing in the field.

While this research goes on as continual fundamental scientific study, trying to increase our knowledge of the upper atmosphere and how it works - to parcel it up and begin conducting it purely for the means of Solar Radiation Management, is a big shift to call for.

Just as my hackles were rising, and as I think several in the room were getting annoyed with the gaps in his talk, all became clear...

Schelling up held SRM as much cheaper than trying to change the behavioural patterns of billions worldwide who burn fossil fuels in their daily lives!

OK - if SRM works, if it can be made into a workable solution within the next 50 years, if it doesn't have horrible side effects like changing rain patterns, if all nations can agree on its deployment then maybe just maybe it may present a cheaper option.

But, as I asked in the question session after - we still only have a finite amount of fossil fuels, so by not attempting to change the practice of those billions of people are we not just delaying the inevitable?

The if all nations can agree on its deployment point above, is about the only part of a 45 minute lecture I agreed with. Schelling spoke of the need to create protocol and norms around SRM and other geo-engineering technologies to ensure its safe development, testing and subsequent deployment.

Much like nuclear arms developments in the twentieth century this dialogue definitely is imperative.

Just to ice my infuriated state, Schelling batted away a question I posed about exploring carbon sequestration, through trees or technological fixes with an almost direct quote from his book, about children planting trees on Arbor Day not being enough to combat climate change!

All in all I left the room, angry at an ageing academic, who has notable influence speaking on a subject he himself had stated he wasn't an expert on, presenting in a cajoling manner. That's dangerous stuff I thought on the cycle home.

Yet awakening this morning having digested Schelling's seminar I thought, maybe Schelling's argument is much more intelligent than last night's anger allowed me to fathom.

Maybe, just maybe his exact purpose was to provoke; to begin dialogue and to say look people want to (and will) explore these technological fixes - so let's do it out in the open so the world can debate it rather than forcing it underground. Let's research these options under international agreement, with co-operation and transparency.

If this is the case Professor Schelling, well done.

However, personally I am much more sceptical, I think sulphur insertion and similar SRM projects are a danger to humans, they will only add uncertainty to our changing climate and accentuate disparities between the rich and the rest.

Thank you Professor Schelling for provoking my thoughts and for reminding me to question people, even if they do have a Nobel Prize.

Alfie

References:
(1) "Thomas C. Schelling - Autobiography". Nobelprize.org. 22 Oct 2010
(2) The University of Manchester - Sustainable Consumption Institute
Schelling, T. C. (2007): Strategies of Commitment and Other Essays, Havard University Press

Climate talks are dead... - is it time to face the elephants in the room?

2010-09-22T15:32:00.000+01:00

In an article in the Guardian this week, celebrated journalist and all round environmental paladin, George Monbiot stated in reference to December's upcoming international climate talks in Mexico that;

"The Process Is Dead..."(1)

In his article he speaks of how the follow on talks to last years failed Copenhagen summit, due to be held in Cancun, Mexico this December, show few signs of being a success - with the developed and developing nations still at loggerheads over who, how much and when differing nations should cut their carbon emissions.

With the agreements laid out in the Kyoto Protocol due to expire in 2012, the likelihood of us entering the second decade of this formative century with any hard agreements on carbon cuts in place seem slim. Indeed as Monbiot muses if we're not careful we may find ourselves somewhere akin to where the discussion was in 1997 or even 1992.

Upon unpacking the international efforts for curbing man-made climate change and declaring them dead, Monbiot then briefly interrogates some regional solutions (such as the EU trading emissions scheme). Much in line with this authors thinking he finds most regional plans, even those written into law such as the UK's very own Climate Change Act hugely short of the levels required to stabilise Carbon Dioxide levels in the atmosphere at a level below 350ppm.

Summarising rather grimly but realistically;

"What all this means is that there is not a single effective instrument for containing man made global warming anywhere on earth."(2)

Monbiot concludes; that the problems aren't only political but highlight deep-rooted human weaknesses, admitting he doesn't know the answers, and finishes that, "the conversation starts here."

OK -well thanks George rather humbly let me try to start (or indeed join) the conversation using a medical metaphor...

The globe has a medical condition called climate change - fundamentally we know what causes it (although there are many uncertainties involved), yet there are a myriad of inputs causing this illness - we monitor its condition by measuring the levels of certain gases in the atmosphere.

Up until now our main attack on this condition has been that of a unsympathetic doctor to an obese patient; simply cut your calories (emissions!). Even a single obese patient can find many reasons to avoid this doctors prescription - so no wonder there are problems when we transpose the metaphor to the protracted world of international agreements.

We need to unpack the case if we're to make true progress - why does the obese patient eat so much? What is it that drives this obsession with eating?

OK. Enough of the weak metaphor -

Climate change has provided (and will continue) to provide a great narrative and common discourse for many environmental issues - but ultimately it has become a term too broad, vast and veiled in its use. It has begun to mask some of the real elephants in the room.

If we are to truly address climate change we need to begin to attack some of these elephants - many fundamentals of the developed world - population growth, water usage, over consumption, capitalism.... I could keep typing the list until the summit in December.

At every level of our society we need to ask ourselves some hard questions - none of the topics they fall under are new - indeed many have perpetuated through cultures from the ancient to the modern.

Unfortunately I don't believe the international frameworks of the current status quo can solve a problem with which they were complicit in creating. We (you, your Gran, the region, and the human world) need to stop take a second and consider what future we want to live in, because as our little economic downturn has reminded us, the good times can't go on forever.

Which parts of your day to day life do you wish to save - the 36 pairs of shoes, the new mobile every year, and the package holiday to the Costa's - OR the huge leaps in life expectancy, the progression to shorter working hours in many societies, and a movement to an inclusive society?

OK- so I don't have a single solution in a box with a ribbon on, but that's the whole point, the politicians have attempted to get hold of the climate change condition and are flailing to find one pill which cures it when fundamentally a local doctor may have just prescribed a large shift in lifestyle rather than a medical solution!

Rant over.

Until next time,
Alfie

P.s This blog is in no way a push to say that the climate talks in Mexico serve no purpose - rather it is a reminder that every individual is in control of our own futures. society is a collective of individuals.

References:

(1) (2) "The Process Is Dead" - Monbiot.com - September 20th 2010

Ash? - What the 90's britpop band?

2010-04-30T10:50:00.000+01:00

As the start of my endeavour to use this blog more for an outpouring of my thoughts and ideas (guru's of the t'interweb tell me this is what they are for), rather than pre-meditated articles (which eat into my other work time!) here are some thoughts about the Eyjafjallajökull eruption and subsequent disruption.

First off an apology to those who are still bitter about the events of recent weeks- however as the news broke that the recent eruption of the unpronounceable volcano had caused several UK airports to suspend flights, I couldn't hide a wry smile spreading across ma visage.

As the vapid media coverage began to scroll across the rolling news channels, claiming, "Chaos in the air across Europe!" - My smile broke into a smug chuckle...

This is not because I am a sadist who takes pleasure in hearing stories via facebook of friends being in airports for over 24 hours, but for the following reasons:

1.) - The headlines lie - there was no chaos in the air - the chaos was on firmly on terra firma. If you were to ask a migrating songbird, such as a willow warbler, returning from their winter retreats in N.Africa how their recent journey back was - they would tell you it was lovely and peaceful - not a human in the air! Although they may complain that if they went a bit too high it was a bit dusty...

2.) - For over 200 years now we humans have been arrogantly basking in our amazing achievements that help separate, and buffer, us from the wild savageness of nature. From medicine beating pathogens, to our ability (!?) to control rivers - by 1970 over 200,000 miles of US waterways had been modified by man.1

We enjoy reminding ourselves that we have subverted nature and that we are more than mere animals so much that it forms the central tenet of our major religions and even appears in our conservation efforts, often pretentiously called wildlife management - as if suddenly animals require a PA and spreadsheets to go about their business!

So when every once in a while - the earth reminds us of its awesome power - especially when it’s in a thoroughly modern way that highlights globalisation in many respects has made us less resilient (Eyjafjallajökull wouldn't have troubled the Victorian gentleman's business operations) then I have to just stand back and applaud, it can only ultimately help our progress as a species.

3.) - "We've paid 1000 Euros to get a taxi from Berlin." - "I've used 15 types of transport and not slept for 7 days getting from Trieste to Calais." - Or other general voxpops on the news.

How sheltered and stupid is the modern traveller!? - Europe has arguably one of the best rail networks in the world with hugely competitive prices. By all accounts even in the midst of the crisis several major routes such as those from Germany to France and even the Euro star weren't completely booked up! For a lovely account of the travel options see Hidden Europe.

Some people had the right idea such as one group of friends who simply informed their workplace of the situation and extended their holiday in Lisbon!

4.) - As the delays continued and folk realised that venting anger at a large magma chamber which only answers to the legislation of geophysical laws was fruitless, attention turned to the experts. Suddenly it was the politicians’ fault- why hadn't anyone questioned the Volcanic Ash Advisory Center's advice.

Calculating the risk (and therefore subsequent flight decisions) was getting passed up and down the chain faster than a game of pass the parcel on speed. The Met office (who controls the advice centre in London) hadn't tested flights, the politicians had other agendas, and the public were adamant they should be allowed their divine right of flight!

Whether a plane would have come down or not - are our capitalist lifestyles now too busy to accept an ashy gift from Mother Nature and take some time out?

If you are not like me and are a little bitter about experiences caused by oh her unpronounceable volcano in the land of ice - then maybe this will show you some positive did come out of huge waits in airports.

Comments as ever are welcome - until next time don't get vexed by the weather.

Alfie x

1 - Schoof, R. (1980): “Environmental Impact of Channel Modification,” Journal of the American Water
Resources Association, 16:4, 697-701

Wind Power - are we just going round in circles?

2010-02-19T10:57:00.000Z

I think the majority of people in the United Kingdom understand that whilst the environment is important, compromises sometimes have to be made.

I think most people understand that governments sometimes make hard decisions that may be unpopular but are deemed necessary.

I think many people understand that the population of the UK places huge demands on our national grid for energy.

However, even with this plethora of understanding at the forefront of your grey-matter the following news is going to make you splutter your coffee, tut out loud or even shake your head for a whole minute.

Before I present that moment- (and to give you time to ensure no scalding coffee is within spillage range)- let me give you some background information:

Haverigg Wind Farm was built in the early 1990s, one of the first wind-farms in the UK it is a shining example of wind development. Producing an efficiency of 35%, above the DTI's 2005 average figure of 28.2%, not bad for the old man of UK wind farms! Further the 8 turbines were funded by ethical investors and the farm is still community owned. A model and structure that is hugely popular in wind energy behemoth's such as Denmark and Germany.

Now time to splutter- There are plans abound to build a new nuclear power station on this site!

Yes! Can you think of something more hypocritical (and counterproductive) from a goverment which is shouting about movement toward a low carbon future!?

Clouds loom over Haverigg Wind Farm in Cumbria (Photograph Braemore Wind Farm)

The proposal for a nuclear power plant on this site was submitted by energy company RWE last year to much (and obvious) furore from environmental groups and locals alike. For a comprehensive article from last April check out Terry Macalister's piece in the Guardian.

Now if you will allow I shall place my academic hat on and play devil's advocate for a paragraph or so. Let us pretend we are the government... more specifically we are a senior minister in the Department for Energy and Climate Change...hell let's go the whole hog- we are Ed Milliband (Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change)

- We understand why nuclear power isn't a golden bullet which can solve all of our energy needs, but we also appreciate that to meet our demands as a nation for the next 50 years - new nuclear plants are a necessity.

- We are familiar with the terms N.I.M.B.Y (Not in my back yard) and L.U.L.U's (Locally unwanted land use) and so expect any community to oppose plans for a nuclear plant within their locale.

- We understand that the proposed nuclear power plant could produce 3,600 megawatts compared with the wind farm's approximate 3.5MW output.

Therefore we conclude that we should build a nuclear plant on the site at Kirksanton, labelling the furore from environmental groups, wind experts and local residents a maelstrom in a whitehall tea-cup. (don't worry we can claim it on expenses- oh ok, well get some posh biscuits too!)

OK, I agree with you Alfie, I hear your brains murmuring to themselves, but I read about this last year- so why bring it up now?

Well if it wasn't enough that a child of 4 could see the myopic nature of these proposals- the government has for some reason decided to adopt a fast-track planning system under its Nuclear National Policy Statement.

Meaning that not only are locals concerns being swept under the carpet, but also little parliamentary scrutiny has been pored over the proposals.

(Fast-track planning!? - if we're moving to a low carbon economy why don't we use this for siting wind-farms?!)

So if you, like me have a brain please email the Department for Energy and Climate Change telling them what you think about the proposals at Kirksanton in Cumbria. Friends of the Earth are leading a campaign, here you can send a message opposing the plans with just one click.

Lets see if the wheels of democracy (however creakily) can still revolve- long live Haverigg wind farm!

Alfie x

Through a haze of flu, some thoughts for you...

2009-12-07T14:35:00.000Z

Well hello one and all.

Apologies for not posting since October one has been rather busy- in fact one is still rather busy but a proper bout of man flu means I can't face any more pressing writing today and hence i'm blogging!

Thus, this is less of a planned article and more a few musings attempting to be coherent through my lemsip induced fug:

- Cop 15 started today, I'm not going to muse at length here because I think every journalist in the world is writing about it today. All I will say is: why the devil are humans so obsessed with proof and measurement?

Whether you believe in anthropogenic climate change or not - (see the image below!) - surely you understand why renewable energy is superior to fossil fuel. The clue is in the name in case you missed it.
Humanity has managed to use this stored energy to develop some of the most amazing inventions and cities ever seen. Now we have to work out how to keep all the advances whilst shifting to a form of energy that doesn't take millions of years to form!

Glacier Retreat- Honeycomb Glacier - Washington State, USA: Photo Bill Arundell

- Christmas is upon us and even more scarily than that, its the end of the decade that no-one knows what to call- (the noughties is just too camp, even for me!) As a treat to see out the decade here are some lovely quotes I have stumbled across recently:

"When somebody persuades me that I am wrong, I change my mind. What do you do?" - John Maynard Keynes responding to the criticism that some of his theories contradict each other!

"In wildness is the salvation of the world. Perhaps this is the hidden meaning of the howl of the wolf, long known among mountatins but seldom perceived among men." - Aldo Leopold on Thoreau's dictum.

And one rather jovial to finish, from the king of quotes, J.B Haldane, upon bursting his own ear drum in an experiment;

"Although one is somewhat deaf, one can blow tobacco smoke out of the ear in question, which is a social accomplishment."

Have a Merry Christmas- and send me your suggestions for proper pieces for me to write in 2010 (already in the pipeline are land ownership, since records began, and some thoughts about what is a disaster!)

Alfie x

From Baboons to Ants - some figures on human population

2009-10-18T22:00:00.000+01:00

In 1798 Robert Malthus (anonymously) published his hugely influential book, "An Essay on the Principle of Population." By no means the first academic writing on the topic of human population Malthus' magnum opus looked into the potential problems presented by a hugely increasing UK population. - When Malthus first highlighted that population grows geometrically whilst food production linearly in 1798 there were about 980 million humans on Earth.

By the time American president Lyndon B. Johnson said in the mid 1960s-

“The hungry world cannot be fed until and unless the growth of its resources and the growth of its population come into balance. Each man and woman-and each nation --must make decisions of conscience and policy in the face of this great problem.”

- there were over 3 billion people on Earth!

And still the growth has continued, if Johnson were to address the world again today with these same words his audience would of more than doubled to - 6.8 billion!

If the scale of human population increase over the last two centuries is a testament to our success as a species, then its continued growth in the face of warning after warning from a full spectrum of commentators; politician, layman and scientist, is testament to how much modern (and post-modern) man is still ruled by our primal instinct to reproduce and spread the species.

However dislocated we think or wish we are from the natural world and instincts of wild animals, collectively as a species we are still ruled by a carnal desire to increase.

Pre-agriculture (about 8,000 B.C) humans were probably outnumbered by some other species of primates such as baboons.1 However once we learnt to master the land and dominate the beast the exponential creep that sees us hovering in the rafters of a building only 10 billion tall (many models and scientists predict that human population will/must peak at 10 billion), began- and homo sapiens became le numero uno of the mammalian world.

Our insatiable growth through the last two centuries of this burgeoning boom was driven by huge technological and medical advances, from the harnessing of fossil fuels to the discovery of bacteria and pathogens. Yet despite repeatedly science and technology enabling us to produce more from less, the human penchant for models built on growth (population, economic, empire) means that resources are now scarcer than ever.

The average European now works no more than 48 hours a week, thanks to EU legislation, a huge improvement on the conditions of 18th century mill workers and middle age peasants toiling the land- however still nothing on the relatively leisure filled lives of primitive societies which most anthropologists now agree on. Studies of the !Kung hunter-gatherers in southern Africa have shown that the average working day is no more than 6 hours long,2 maybe the old adage that, high culture emerges only when people have the leisure time to build monuments or to create art needs drastically revising!

One of the largest changes that has symbiotically grown with population is the revolution in social structure that is urbanisation. The rush to no longer be rural, triggered in 17th century Europe by industrialisation and the division of labour has seen us without many qualms move from small social structures typical of most primate species into large urban conglomerates much more equatable with insect social structures of hives and colonies.

In 1700 there were only 5 cities with populations over half a million - 10 points if you can name them?

By 1800 there were 6 - 20 points if you can name the new kid on the 19th century block?

By 1900 there were 43 - it becomes a bit of an arbitrary task at this point doesn't it? - but if you want to try...

By 2000 there were over 800 (with about 250+ of these having over 1 million residents and 10ish over 10 million - depending on where you draw the boundaries of what a city is!)

Whilst both our overall population growth and assimilation into huge urban expanses is metaphorically speaking insect like, it is worth humbling our successes by remembering that ants still outweigh us 4:1!3

Even so we are considerably larger (and more destructive) than the industrious formicidae family and by the 1990s we accounted for about 5% of the animal biomass on the planet. A number that means in measurement of sheer bulk we far outnumber any other mammal species.

Whilst most of the numbers thus far should be cause for alarm, the rate at which our global population is on the increase, is in fact on the decrease.

In the 1960s the rate at which we were globally increasing peaked at a staggering 2.04-2.2% per year, now this number is substantially lower at approximately 1.167% per year (according to the CIA world factbook).

Remember that 1.167% of 6.8 billion is still an increase between 2009-2010 of approximately 79 million!

Some countries are now well below this average global population increase and have populations which are decreasing year on year - in some areas (such as eastern Europe) this is driven by migration, whilst in others (such as Japan) it is driven purely by reductions in birth against a backdrop of increasing life expectancy.

Huzzah- I hear you cry, some countries are moving into what your A-level geography teacher may have called "Stage 5 of Rostow's Model of Development." Their populations are healthy and wealthy and no longer increasing! But hang fire with the party, Rostow rather worryingly named stage 5- "Age of High mass consumption" and viewed this as the last and final period in a countries development!

Sustainable vs. mass consumption debate aside a naturally decreasing population such as that in Japan, isn't simply where all countries of the world should aim. A population in decline, even on such a densely populous island as Japan opens a whole can of problems for society and governance. Most notably declines in production, cultural vitality, an ageing population and the pressure on social services (especially pensions and healthcare) that such a demographic shift causes.

So what to do!? - we can't win if we keep increasing globally but any country which doesn't seek to address issues of a declining and ageing population is seen as naive and foolhardy!

I think before the global human population becomes such a behemoth that it collapses on itself some broad mindset shifts are needed - the aim of life no longer needs to be sheer growth. The metrics of capitalism; GDP, production, life expectancy, power no longer work- we need to replace them with measurement of quality of life, ability to persist and sustain.

It may sound woolly but if we continue down the projected population path to a peak of 10 billion there may be literally no room for the materialist ideals which have spurred much of our present growth.

A sentiment best summed up by a far superior orator than myself, Sir David Attenborough;

"Using his burgeoning intelligence, this most successful of all mammals has exploited the environment to produce food for an ever-increasing population. In spite of disasters when civilisations have over-reached themselves, that process has continued, indeed accelerated, even today. Now mankind is looking for food, not just on this planet but on others. Perhaps the time has now come to put that process into reverse. Instead of controlling the environment for the benefit of the population, perhaps it's time we control the population to allow the survival of the environment."

Feel free to comment or post ideas below, until next time;
Alfie

Additionally to the below referenced figures, the UN document "The World at Six Billion" and the CIA World Factbook online provided the majority of the numbers in this article. Many authors inspired this blog and have written in much better detail and ability on this topic- contact me if you would like some further references on writings on population.

1 - McNeill, J. (2001) - Something new under the sun: an environmental history of the twentieth century (Penguin Books) - Page 8
2- Cohen, Yehudi (1974). Man in Adaptation: the cultural present - 94-95. The same tribe is visited by Dr Alice Roberts in her 2009 BBC television series The Incredible Human Journey
3 - Turco, R. P. (1997) - Earth Under Siege: from air pollution to global change (Oxford University Press) - Page 105

Welcome one and all (closer to the one at present!)

2009-10-02T14:32:00.001+01:00

Hello and welcome to my new (and first attempt) in the vast blogosphere:

Green Gambit - This blog is a portal into my research as an environmental historian (yes, that is a real subject!), combined with other ideas and thoughts linked to the environment that permeate my mind at inappropriate times.

If you have mused upon questions such as,

"How have human's become so dislocated from the natural world?"
"Is a natural disaster ever natural?"
"Where did all the risk in modern life come from?"
"How can we sustain, sustainable development?"
"Is climate change real, imagined or invented by politicians?"
"Did the "environment" exist before the rise of the environmental movement?"
and "Collectively are humans inherently destructive?"

then this place may be of interest to you.

I'm aiming to write something here every couple of weeks or so, linking specific environmental event examples from my research with larger perspective questions like those above. Hopefully it will get you folks thinking, commenting and contributing- so bookmark me, rss feed me or whatever else it is you modern people do to follow blogs!

I'll leave this brief introduction to my page with a quote from the man- Aldo Leopold,

"Conservation is getting nowhere because it is incompatible with our Abrahamic vision of land. We abuse land because we regard it as a commodity belonging to us. When we see land as a community to which we belong, we begin to use it with love and respect."

Until next blog-time,
Alfie