The Tech Farm

Is USA Doomed to Repeat 1921-1945: Prosperity, Depression, Totalitarianism, World War?

2012-11-20T00:00:00.000-08:00

Is the USA Doomed to Repeat 1921-1945: Prosperity, Depression, Totalitarianism, Major War? In a previous post, we speculated that there is an 84 year cycle which includes an 84 year Major War Cycle. In 1921 to 1929, we had the Roaring Twenties, a time of great Prosperity. There was great economic prosperity, the stock market had a large runup, and the 1920s was a decade of increased consumer

Will there be a Major US War in 2028? (World War 3?) The 84 Year U.S. Major War Cycle

2012-11-12T20:53:00.001-08:00

Will there be a Major United States Involved War in 2028, Possibly Global? If the 84 Year Cycle remains true, then we will have a possible major war (World War 3?) around 2028. Year Cycle Major U.S. War 1776 +84 American Revolutionary War 1860 +84 U.S. Civil War 1944 +84 World War II 2028 Next Major U.S. Involved War

Story of U.S. Stock Market in One Chart, 1975 to 2035

2012-10-24T23:17:00.000-07:00

The Story of the U.S. Stock Market (S&P 500) in One Chart from 1975 to 2035: The Chart above tells the story of the United States Stock Market (as represented by the S&P 500 index) from 1975 to 2035. Baby Boomers are the largest demographic group in the United States born around 1946 to 1960, right after World War II. In the 1980s and 1990s, the Baby Boomers were in their Peak Earning Years

What does the U.S. Federal Government Spend Money on?

2012-10-20T17:30:00.002-07:00

What does the United States Federal Goverment Spend their money on? In 2012, the breakdown is as follows: In the chart above, over 62% of the 2012 US Federal Budget was spent on Entitlements including Health Care, Social Security, Pensions, Medicare and Medicaid. The next largest group is National Defense at 19%. Net Interest is at 6%, and that leaves 13% for all other spending including

Does Taxing the Rich Help Increase U.S. Revenue as a Percent of GDP? (Historic Range: 1934 to 2011)

2012-10-16T21:49:00.000-07:00

Does increasing the top marginal tax rate on the rich help the U.S. Revenue Problem? In the chart above, the lower green line is the U.S. Revenue as a Percentage of GDP from 1934 to 2011. From 1944 to 2011, the Average U.S. Federal Revenue as a Percentage of GDP was a steady 17.8% with the highest being 20.9% of GDP in 1944, during World War 2. From 1944 to 2011, the U.S. Revenue as a

Does the U.S. have a Spending or Revenue Problem? US Debt and Deficit

2012-10-12T00:22:00.001-07:00

Does the United States have a Revenue Problem or a Spending Problem? Since 1960, the United States has been on a Spending Trajectory, and the annual deficit over the last four years has been over $1 Trillion Dollars. The Current U.S. National Debt is around $16 Trillion, and it is now over 100% of GDP (Gross Domestic Product). But is it a U.S. Spending Problem or a Revenue Problem? In

Trading the Largest 16 Year Stock Market Trading Range: Major Market Top or Breakout

2012-10-02T00:00:00.001-07:00

The U.S. Stock Market as represented by the S&P 500 Index is in a major 16 Year Trading Range from 1997 to 2012. The Low of the trading range is around 666, which was reached January 2009. The S&P 500 last reached that level around the 1996-1997 timeframe. The High of the Trading Range reached a level of 1576 on October 2007. The S&P 500 is currently trading at 1444, around 9% below the

Ten Year Predictions including Global Great Depression, War, and Obama/Romney.

2012-09-25T00:24:00.001-07:00

Today is September 24, 2012, and here are some ten year predictions (ending December 2022): A. United States Elections: President Barrack Obama, Vice President Joe Biden and the Democrats will win the U.S. election of 2012. Following a major stock market crash between 2012 and 2016, the Republicans will win the election of 2016. However, the defeat of Mitt Romney in 2012, and the bad state of

Aging Population Will Cause Great Bear Market to Last till 2025: The M/O Ratio

2012-09-20T23:50:00.000-07:00

The Aging U.S. Population Demographic will put great pressure on the Stock Market and cause Stock Crashes and Stagnation for many years, only recovering in 2025. Zheng Liu and Mark M. Spiegel made a great observation and they found that there is a direct correlation between the Market's Price to Earnings Ratio (P/E) and a Demographic Ratio called the M/O Ratio. M == Number of people in U.S.

Monster Stock Rally, Blowoff Top then Massive Stock Crash?

2012-09-13T21:46:00.001-07:00

In the last post, this blog speculated that we are nearing a Major Market Top and will hit the third peak in a Triple Top, and we may see declines and stagnation for many years. But what if, instead of a Triple Top Reversal, what if we break out of the previous highs on the S&P 500 (around 1550-1565 on the S&P 500 set in the year 2000 and 2007)? Then, we will have a very bullish Triple Top

Stock Market Major Triple Top: Big Drop Ahead? Target S&P 600.

2012-09-11T00:10:00.001-07:00

The U.S. Stock Market as measured by the S&P 500 index is at 1429 (Monday, September 10, 2012), just 10% below the all time closing high of around 1565 on October 2007. The S&P 500 is nearing very strong overhead resistance, and it couldn't surpass it in 2000 (top #1) and then again in 2007 (top #2) when it could not surpass the all time high of 1565. What if S&P 500 Can't Break Resistance:

S&P 500 Stock Market Crash?: $16 Trillion in National Debt and Bad Demographics

2012-09-06T23:05:00.000-07:00

Is the Stock Market and the U.S. S&P 500 in Denial and is a Stock Market Crash Ahead? Since the great stock market crash of 2008, the U.S. Stock Market has gone up from an S&P 500 low of 683 to 1432 today, September 6, 2012 for a gain of 110%. However, during the same time, the United States National Debt went from $10.6 Trillion Dollars to today's $15.86 Trillion Dollars for a gain of 50%.

College Major and Field Salary and Unemployment (2010)

2011-11-26T21:34:00.001-08:00

With tuition and higher education costs greatly outpacing inflation, choosing a Field and College Major becomes a more important decision.Based on the 2010 Census Data and the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce, here are the unemployment rates and 25, 50, and 75th percentile incomes based on the Field of Study. Results Sorted by 50% Percentile Income Field Unemployment25%

Profit from Population Growth: 7 Billion People on Earth

2011-11-01T21:59:00.000-07:00

You may have seen the most recent headline that the World Population is now 7 Billion Human Individuals.Can we profit from this? Water Infrastructure:Water Infrastructure will be needed to support the growing population.You can play this with the PowerShares Global Water Portfolio ETF (PIO) or the Powershares Water Resources ETF (PHO). Individual company names can include companies such as

Undervalued Stocks with Respect to Growth and Yield (PEG+Y Ratio)

2011-10-04T00:56:00.000-07:00

As the Stock Market including the U.S. S&P 500 Index goes down, experienced people say you should start creating a wish list of companies to buy at lower levels.One measure of valuation is the PEG+Y Ratio which is the Forward Price Earnings Ratio divided by the Five Year Estimated Growth Rate Plus Yield:PEG+Y = (Forward Price Earnings Ratio) / (5 Year Estimated Growth Rate + Yield)PEGY (simpler

End of World Portfolio: Gold, Guns, and Spam: Outperforming

2011-09-22T23:08:00.001-07:00

Some people say that the End of the World Portfolio consists of "Gold, Guns, and Spam".To evaluate these, we will compare the S&P 500 compared to Gold (GLD), Guns (RGR: Sturm Ruger, maker of firearms), and Spam (HRL, Hormel, maker of Spam).(Dividends not taken into consideration):First Major Downturn: October 2007 to September 22, 2011: S&P 500: -27.83% GLD: +131.29% HRL: +57.62% RGR: +68.98%

Idea #6: AEA: Cash Advance Centers: Profit from Bad Times and Living Paycheck to Paycheck

2011-09-07T23:45:00.000-07:00

Simple Idea #6: AEA: Advance America, Cash Advance Centers: Profit from Bad Times, Recession, Unemployment, and Living Paycheck to Paycheck TICKER: AEASECTOR: Financial Services, Loans, Credit Services GROWTH THEME: Bad times are with us with risks of recession, continued high unemployment and people continuing to live paycheck to paycheck. AEA, Advance America, Cash Advance America provides

Idea #5: HANS: Hansen, Leading Energy Drink Maker, Monster brand

2011-08-17T21:36:00.001-07:00

Simple Investment Idea #5: HANS (Hansen): Leading Energy Drink Maker ('Monster' brand) TICKER: HANS SECTOR: Consumer Staples, Beverage, Energy Drink, Specialty Drinks GROWTH THEME: Hansen (HANS) is a specialty drink maker, and their Monster Brand Energy Drink is a leader. Generation Y (a large group) and the Youth, and global growth will help propel stock and industry forward. DEMOGRAPHICS

Stock Market S&P 500 in Upper Range of 60 Year Mainstream Price Channel

2011-08-08T23:51:00.000-07:00

The S&P 500 (US Stock Market) has been going down for sometime, and the S&P 500 went down 6.7% on August 8, 2011, to 1119.46. From the long term view, where is this market headed? If we look at the S&P 500 chart from 1950 to 2010 (We made this chart the middle of 2010), we see that the S&P 500 Stock Market is now solidly within the mainstream price channel between the years 1950 and 2010. The

Idea #4: SNDA: Profit from Millions of Online Chinese Gamers

2011-05-11T21:09:00.000-07:00

Simple Investment Idea #4: SNDA: Profit from Millions of Online Chinese GamersTICKER: SNDACOMPANY: Shanda Interactive Entertainment LTD.SECTOR: Technology, Chinese Online GamingGROWTH THEME: Online Gaming in China is big business, with millions of players. There is also a great demographic shift in China, and there will be 24 million surplus bachelor marriage aged men, a key Chinese online

Idea #3: QSII: Profit from Digitizing HealthCare Systems

2011-04-04T22:27:00.001-07:00

Simple Investment Idea #3: QSII: Profit from Digitizing HealthCare SystemsTICKER: QSIICOMPANY: Quality SystemsSECTOR: HealthCare, TechnologyGROWTH THEME: There is a big need to modernize and digitize HealthCare Records and HealthCare Information Systems (IT).MARKET CAP: $2.51BFORWARD PE: 31.48ESTIMATED 5 YEAR GROWTH: 18.27%FORWARD YIELD: 1.70%PEG+Y GROWTH: 1.57PERCENT ABOVE 50 DAY MOVING AVERAGE

Idea #2: TDG: Profit from Aerospace Boom

2011-03-28T21:41:00.000-07:00

Simple Investment Idea #2: TDG: Profit From Aerospace Boom.TICKER: TDGCOMPANY: Transdigm GroupSECTOR: AerospaceGROWTH THEME: We are in the middle of an aerospace boom, including an era where we are replacing both commercial and military aircraft. Transdigm Group provides parts for commercial and military aircraftMARKET CAP: $4.08BFORWARD PE: 16.80ESTIMATED 5 YEAR GROWTH: 10.50%FORWARD YIELD: 0%

Idea #1: HMSY: Profit From Government Healthcare Waste

2011-03-24T22:08:00.001-07:00

Simple Investment Idea #1: HMSY: Profit From Government Healthcare Waste TICKER: HMSY COMPANY: HMS HoldingsSECTOR: Healthcare, Financial RecoveryGROWTH THEME: If you believe that government is wasteful and will continue to be wasteful especially in areas such as Benefits and Medicaid, then you can profit by investing in HMSY, a company which recovers healthcare government waste.MARKET CAP:

Scary Similarity: Charts 1929-1930, and 2008-2010; Big Drop or Crash Ahead?

2010-08-17T23:27:00.000-07:00

There are scary similiarities if you look at the charts today (2008-2010) and the Charts (1929-1930) around the time of the Great Depression.Here is the current chart from 2008 to 2010 of the S&P 500: Here is the chart from 1929 to 1930 of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Comparison Points On each chart, there are labels. A label on one chart, should correspond (similarity) with the same

U.S. S&P 500 Stock Market to Stagnate for Five Years in Secular Bear Market

2010-06-30T23:03:00.000-07:00

The U.S. Stock Market, as represented by the S&P 500 Index, could stagnate for a long time period (such as five years). Long Term S&P 500 Price Channel Since 1950 Since 1950, the S&P 500 Stock Market has been in a consistent price channel, until the year 1995, when the S&P 500 starts the runup at an unsustainable rate, until the peak in 2000. During the time period starting in 1995, the S&P 500