bhaswar

-: INHALATION :-

2013-09-09T02:35:00.000+05:30

DGCX INRUSD

INR: on 28^th of Aug’13 hopelessly in DGCX INRUSD met the target of last post of 19^th Aug’13(likely-un-likely) by hitting a low of 142.63, while in national exchanges hits record 69.80 for current contract.

A strong suspicion for the sharp weakness of INR will never be revealed.

USDINR sept'13 contract

After the sharp weakness in INR, on Fri, 6^th Sept’13,

some confirmation for near term correction (reversal?) with a double top confirmation in USDINR which was kept undecided on previous day. From here a near term target can expect 63-62.70 area at the same time need to stay cautious of any odd, developing in background which can put water on optimism.

USDINR spot

LIKELY-un-LIKELY

2013-08-19T12:48:00.000+05:30

FUTURE is always in dark as invisible and under the hand of future only, human habit is to predict in a various way. sometimes it become worrisome as my feelings now and will be happy if time will tell its just a nightmare.

The effort of RBI/Govt gone in vain and stays towards directed by the market.

Tracking from DGCX INRUSD staying below 160 indicates to turn lower towards a projected area of 142.8 in a mid to long term (prepared on 14th July'13) means USDINR staying above 62.5 indicates towards a projected area of 70 in a mid to long term

History suggest irrespective of huge potentiality we'r a self-destructing nation as neglected real heroes and inventors. as an example this is the land
where '0' was invented.

The prosperity in recent past has also come holding the hand of science and technology as software which isn't that much empowered by our authorities. Now even can find positivity in this negative scenario which in turn may boost us with a dramatic change towards tremendous growth. optimism hasn't end here rather may ripe for a systematic change.

Trying to curb GOLD import may not help us that much rather may 've negative impact in future as for its unparallel value. I think, stop of importing unnecessary items which is going on to make others happy and building manufacturing units of electronics and hardware and compete for export and more emphasis on renewable energy can be one way.

Now we really need of real leaders with foresight who will guide us for a new era.

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** this is personal opinion and for inside information for academic interest.

World Bank Insider Blows Whistle on Corruption, Federal Reserve - Does not believe any gold is in Fort Knox - GoldSeek.com

2013-05-27T00:11:00.001+05:30

World Bank Insider Blows Whistle on Corruption, Federal Reserve - Does not believe any gold is in Fort Knox - GoldSeek.com

MARKET:People/Power/Pressure

2013-04-15T02:20:00.000+05:30

GOLD has broken its major sup of $1500/1522 area, made a low of $1476 in GLOBEX late electronic trading and silver too broken its major sup of $26/26.3 area and made a low of $25.725 in late electronic trading. Chart got damaged and technical picture turns negative.

A negative spiral can expect for midterm. Next sup level is coming at $1436 (Comex gold futures generic and spot gold), which is Fib 38% retracement level from 2008 low to 2012 high and even MA 200 week, another sup is @ $1418/22. So this sup area we can watch whereas strong res $1530 and 1550.
next imp sup area is coming $1288-$1302.

But won’t be surprise if we see a bear trap to form nearby.

Friday, 12^th April ’13 gold pressured by Mr. Draghi comment reg Cyprus gold reserve sale whereas EU finance ministers extend Irish, Portuguese loan repayments 7 more years, easing the burden on their economy and approves Cyprus bailout. on Wednesday there was market talk of Cyprus gold sell but on Thursday Cyprus finance minister ignored any discussion reg this.

This was a panic selling as it did so many times in recent past, this time fear is, if the pressure comes on other indebted EU countries which may on Cyprus and all come to sale their gold reserve. Gold and silver too slips by hitting huge sell stops.

We all can remember some Famous names suggesting to sell gold as b’coz its useless (in their opinion) and to buy stocks its to move new area, somehow they able to make themselves right supported by less participants and volume irrespective the reason on the ground as its still gloomy for US, very poor for EU, China with much doubt, India is also not well including some other countries.

On this day although all other indices globally was down but US indices covered their day loss and closed near to flat (irrespective of US retail sales and consumer sentiment was disappointed) , may pressure to liquidate commodities position to meet up their margin.

US Fed divided for continuing or end QE program and when. Whenever comment is coming off an end sooner than later, pressure is coming on precious, but is it not due to QE, equity was gained much irrespective of econ condition?

In last speech Fed Mr. Bernanke didn’t hint an end sooner.

What about the other countries? Its ongoing and in Japan its unlimited now.

* Soaring inventory or base metal indicates less demand which mainly for industrial use.

*China importing huge quantity of gold recently it was 72 Mt, and from nov’12 to feb’13 it is 272tons in just four months (data source Kitco).
*Globally most of the central banks increasing their holding to protect their currency and all in a currency war.

GOLD is really precious as because of its nature and human psychology and culture, its always against any type of risk as inflation or deflation, economical or geopolitical even against fiat currency with has industrial demand too. Silver too categorically same in nature with wide industrial use.

CROSSROAD (?)

2013-03-03T23:30:00.000+05:30

USD boosted against majors even after spending cut.

DOW and S&P covered sharply from low on Friday and settled near the day high and specially DOW spot at 14089.66, just few point lower of all time high settlement of 14093.08.

Possibly we can see some interesting movement in coming days as major indices, precious and currencies are in crossroad.

GOLD & SILVER:

GOLD was facing selling pressure before last week, slips to $1554.6, and settled at $1575.7 near 2012 lowest close of $1564.5. It is below the secondary bearish channel but for last two weeks it was holding sideways, holding above a critical and major sup area of $1500-$1522.

Open interest reduced last week.

SILVER movement alike gold, here within a secondary bearish channel and on week formed a dozi at channel sup, although taken out a long trend line sup @30$ area but holding above strong sup area holding from 2011 is 26$, which is 50% retracement of 1995-2001 low and 2011 high which was a retest of record high.

Seems a half round above $26 has done on weekly settlement basis, to watch if can complete.

Any convincing breakout of critical and major sup areas for gold below $1500/1530 and silver $26, can be damaging for midterm.

ECB, BoE , BoJ rate decisions, China reports and US unemployment rate, nonfarm including some other economical report will bring volatility and direction next week after US declares of spending cut.

Major indices DOW and S&P on record high area while gold and silver holding on major sup for retracement hits all time high.

(chart 3: long term chart on DOW spot vs gold spot and S&P spot vs gold spot)

Growth, risk, investment and hedge. Currency, Commodity, Indices(equity) ..... choice is ones own.

(chart 4: gold spot and DOW spot vs USD index)

NB: market is typically volatile, but market do the logical only. foreseeing the unforseen realy need to maintain stop always as it carries risk.

GOLD TO SHINE

2013-01-02T02:14:00.000+05:30

Here taken Gold (spot) chart on weekly basis from 2004 to 2012, full eight years’ movement. Can get two equal part (high/low basis) within as 2004 to 2008 and 2008 to 2012.

1^st part:

It was 376$ of 2004 low, made on month of May’04 and 2008 high was 1038$, made on month of march’08 , scenario of growth behind everywhere including emerging countries just before the housing bubble of US burst, pulling the country in recession and outlook became shaky.

Can see on chart that Gold was pulled down and has taken a retracement of Fib 50% (within March’08 to Oct’08) and ran for a new record breaking 2008 high on Oct’09.

2^nd part:

After taking out of 2008 high on Oct’09, till now the record high holds at 1920$, made on sept’11. In 2012 gold sticks within a range of 1800$ to 1522$ (278$) and even not retraced to Fib 38.2%, which comes @ 1453$.

Present situation:

Volume is low and sometimes it is very thin. Some sort of manipulation by big funds to pull prices down by hitting huge sell stops with the chance of thin volume took places as per reports observed. But its’ may temporary as b’coz it is very hard to keep market cornered for long time.

Still prices holding well above 200 EMA and 100 EMA. Seems it’s a phase of accumulation, gathering momentum.

Near term:

Forming a bull flag in nearby area. Where a sup can consider @1628$, at Fib 23.6% and res which gradually lowered with time but any breakout can shoot to retest 1800$, the 2012 high.

Background and long-term:

From all the corner, as economical or geopolitical its supportive for gold. Question of fiat currency dependency, debt of countries, inflation or deflation and even hyperinflation is also supportive. Even if we can come back to growth then also demand can’t become less rather it‘ll increase.

So, yellow metal has very very negligible chance to become pale rather to shine and glitter. Holding the idea of 2600$, may within 2013 or 1^st quarter of 2014.

So,its a matter of time only for clarity in direction with any breakout for holding longs otherwise to be within range.

NB: market carries risk. This information and thought for academic interest and inside circulation.

gold and copper

2012-11-19T08:10:00.000+05:30

$GOLD: comex gold nearby one good sup area (psychological too) is $1700. it seems here may try to make its 2nd shoulder, if so then it will become a inverse H&S and confirmation to get after
settling above neck line (ascending green line on chart), nearby days it may $1746/48 ($1750)or
may higher area if take longer time.

So, for mid to long term view is to long gold on dips with stop below $1700.

$COPPER: comex copper hold its sup area of 340c here for a longer time and seems may going to
form a rounded bottom here where nearby res will be 355c area.
RSI indicator also suggesting of building here on 340c.

So, for midterm view is to long hg at dips with stop below 340c.

GOLD and SILVER, week ahead

2012-09-23T02:30:00.000+05:30

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GOLD hits a high of $1790 on Friday but unable to stay, closed flat, was a sideways week. Still there is strength to move higher with sideways movement but any outside influence can bring a chance of correction.

Strong support of gold is $1750 and strong res $1799/1801. Intermediate sup $1764/66, below strong sup of $1749/50, can attract corrective back towards $1730/31 and $1718/19. Intermediate res are $1782/83 and $1792.

Any convincing move higher above $1800, can boost towards $1840.

SILVER also hits a high of $35.26 on Friday eve, but fails to stay and closed flat. It was also a sideways week alike gold. Near term sideway to corrective move possible.

Strong support $33.7 and strong res $36/36.08. nearby area $34 to $35.32/36, intermediate areas are $34.36/42, $34.76, $35.

Nature of silver is volatile, strength intact. Any convincing violation of $33.7, can attract correction towards $32/32.38.

Outside influence or strong momentum above $35, can push towards strong res of $36/36.08. In this scenario can keep in mind about next solid res area which can consider $37 and $37.46/58.

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COPPER to become semi-precious(?)

2012-09-08T20:30:00.000+05:30

Uncertainty is rising and so volatility and volatility is a matter of concern. Copper outlook is bullish in long term while now short to midterm became positive.

On daily picture copper has formed a double rounded bottom holding support area of 328c/lb and given a breakout of 355c/lb area and settled 364c/lb. and nearby target area seems 379/380c/lb.

On weekly another positive indication we are getting as taken out a trend resistance line and given a positive settlement which may hinting to get copper at psychological mark of $4/lb.

Everybody is talking about QE, it is almost certain more QE globally may today or tomorrow but if no QE anyway, then what (?), do you think all the metals and precious metals will fall and will be very cheap (?)… may there will be a sharp and sudden reaction pull prices down which will be very much temporary, investment demand and supply disruption and supply worry will push prices higher even for a new record.

Copper is tending to become semi-precious, the oldest metal of human generation.

NB: This for sharing thought and interest, not a trade recommendation.

GOLD: failure or trics?

2012-03-25T22:26:00.000+05:30

GOLD: last day of this week end with gains and closed just below near term res of $1670/72 and weekly formation is also good. Monday, a flat to +ve open and steadiness ‘ll hint some higher areas.

(**spot gold daily chart)

On last 29^th feb ’12, it fails to breach $1800 area, sharply fallen to $1688 and damaged for near term, a failure. So many times it's showing failure in last few months but not failed actually as previous.

(**spot gold weekly chart)

Holding long term trend sup and near term trend sup too. We've to keep eyes open as can make bear trap with any news or event as general sentiment also damaging after longs getting hurt so many times.

Movement, area of movement and background suggesting me accumulation is going on and not changing my idea till $1500 is intact (due to many reason it’s a big sup area for gold and psychological too).

RECENT HISTORY: While went to the past years movement, in 2008 after given downside breakout it holds and ultimately made a bear trap (can see in my this blog on dt. 24^th oct’08, 15^th nov’08, 22^nd nov’08). (Again I’m grateful to my seniors, suggested me to write this blog).

(**long term weekly spot gold chart )

LONG TERM EXPECTATION FOR GOLD:

Till $15k is intact, seeing only buying in dips is better option, record high will be the target above $1800-$1840 and new record probably on the cards. Revising my long term target of $2300 to $2670, followed by $2300, $2100 and $2k.

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crude and bullions

2012-02-22T08:34:00.000+05:30

GOLD: glittering. nearby one resistance to overcome and stand avobe of $1764 and can wait for another breakout area of res of $1800 and $1840 (Spot basis) to overcome to challenge record high.

SILVER: waking up and waiting to see a breakout of $35.58/$35.78 area (spot basis) and steadiness above, this can boost it nicely.

CRUDE OIL: as per my last post ONLY crude hits stop in case of BRENT/SWEET spread or long position of WTI, it slipped to $95, again retested but ultimately taken out said res of $104, pointing towards $115-$118 followed by res $106 and $108, $111.

*Background remains supportive.

heading where:

2012-01-26T02:30:00.000+05:30

HAPPY REPUBLIC DAY

Market after FOMC:

As per my last thought posted here its going fine till now. USDINR about to reach final target for now.

Cude oil: yet to make a leap rather retested the support of $77.50/70 area and now seems getting ready for a very near term breakout above $101.50 area(settlement to watch) and again res of $103.8/104 will be the challenged to breached for a shoot up for possible target towards $115 (marked as*) followed by a mild res $104.80/105.20 and $108, $111.

Spread option is still looking fine . its within 12.3 to 10 till now.

SPREAD OPTION: BUY $SWEET, SELL $BRENT

DOW(spot): 2011 high is now facing the challenge.

GOLD: this move was due and given a solid breakout last night and pointing towards $1765, $1800, $1834/40. staying above and steadyness will challenge the record high.

SILVER: it was outshining gold for last few days. now to face res $33.70 and $35.50. breakout area as per continuation basis and spot basis is comming $36.50.

COPPER: Dr is supported abov $3.75, res $4.02, $4.20 and a range can consider within $3.75 to $4.20.

** market is risk, volatility making it riskier.

Outlook after 1st week of 2012

2012-01-09T03:30:00.000+05:30

Outlook for USDINR, Light sweet crude and Brent crude

INDICES, GOLD and SILVER

USDINR (spot): first nearby res 52.40 and convincing break and settlement as shown (CI1) with arrow will confirm a double top (of 1and 2 as shown) and tends to stronger area towards 51.20(1^st target area) followed by 51.85. Secondly, any convincing break and staying below and settlement below of 51.20, which will confirm a H&S formation, which may indicate towards 49.85 followed by fib 38.2% at 50.10 (2^nd or final target on the basis of situation within 50.10-49.85 area) and 48.90 (final target, which is also fib 50% .

BRENT CRUDE vs LS CRUDE (continuation base):

SPREAD OPTION: BUY $SWEET, SELL $BRENT

LS crude: formed a reverse H&S(showed as 1,2,3 and confirmation on res) and holds above with a +ve week on candle chart (Jan’12 contract) although nearby res $103.8. a positive move is better option for future expectation. If so, then any convincing breakout above $103.8/104, a shoot up can possible towards $115 (marked as*) followed by a mild res $104.80/105.20 and $108, $111.

BRENT: alike LS crude it also seems +ve on chart(continuation basis) but ‘ve to face 1^st hurdle at res $116 as months back faced a false break out or bull trap (shown as ‘F’ and within a circle). If can breach above then next res is coming as $122.

DOW (spot): alike cl, it has also making a reverse H$S, nearby res 12430, and any convincing break higher likely to push towards 2011 hi of 12876 (and a long ascending trend res @13130-160). If so better to keep in mind its all time high is 14198 on 11/10/2007.

S&P (spot): following dow and can complete a reverse H&S if capable to settle above 1295 convincingly. If so anda descending res‘ll be @1308/10 and 2011 high of 1370.

NIFTY (spot): any convincing break above 4790 can push towards 4835/40 and follow through and good settlement can push towards 5030 and 5100.

SENSEX (spot): convincing break above 16050 and follow through with good settlement can push towards 17k/17100 followed by 16750.
GOLD: sustaining above long term ascending sup line on weekly basis.
SILVER: naturally volatile as a speculative metal. Tested 2011 low of in the yearend.

Still seeing specially precious is bullish in midterm and ferociously bullish in long term. I’m waiting for getting a better entry point to avoid hit by volatility.

NB: This for sharing thought and interest.

MARKET: DONE/OVERDONE, MATCH/MISMATCH

2011-10-28T16:54:00.000+05:30

MARKET: DONE/OVERDONE, MATCH/MISMATCH

The movement, mainly of indices seems a relief rally with support of euro zone debt deal.

Think better to wait n watch to get the direction from market for directional trade. Level based and intraday trade preferable.

Outlook:07.10.11

2011-10-07T19:29:00.000+05:30

DOW: on 5th dow(spot) broken strong sup of 10600, hits a low of 10400, the near term decending trend channel sup but covered sharply, made a new day hi in last 40 mins of trading and settled at 10808 (400 points offlows). in the background +ve talk reg EU banks and repeated dialog by mr bernanke reg easing may boosted this movement despite the _ve global situation remains.
now to watch the decending trend channel res area to whach, which is coming @ 11240 at the same time US payroll and employment reports scheduled to release @ 018.00 hrs IST.
probablity of capping the upward move in this area.

GOLD: holds the sup of $1600 on 05th oct and again moving back to the potential res of $1680/82.
altough for mid to long term still its very much bullish but near term lower prices still can expect. nearby potential res area $1682 (extn $1702), suup $1600, $1580 (can't be rulled out to get the area of $1530 again to retest). sideways ot lower till holding below potential res area of $1682-$1702.

SILVER: too much volatile but within a big range. ability of breach $30.32/34 on 5th oct, made a +ve day candle formation and with outside market sup, able to take out res of $31.5 towards potential res of $33.50.
for near term sideways to lower and a chance of retest of $26.30 till holding below the potential res of $33.50.

COPPER: dr. was a gentle counter and this is the first time it is showing this volatility and indicates the econ outlook. $3.33 is a key res today to watch, holding of this res give a hope to get copper towards $3 or lower but breaching and staying abov $3.33, next res will come @ $3.50.
NB: market is typically volatile, but market do the logical only. foreseeing the unforseen realy need to maintain stop always and obviously now when it is too volatile with big movement.

Outlook 07.09.11

2011-09-07T21:42:00.004+05:30

We are passing historic time as both major economies of US and EU (as united) is in gloomy situation and possibly solution is far reach and can dampen global growth.

As economic power is transforming and ongoing question is arising with changing situation about USD as reserve currency, which argument is hot now a days and individually 2^nd largest economy China openly wished for Yuan to become a reserve currency (although they may know its not very easy to replace or a time taking process ). Nigerian central Bank governor told yesterday to Invest 5% To 10% of their reserves In Yuan‎(effect of china's long time effort on African countries).

In recent time we ‘ve seen central banks coming openly to protect own currency which dampening safe heaven image of some particular currencies like USD and CHF. As an example SNB intervention yesterday made it weaker for more than 700 pips against USD, possibly it was a historic move for USDCHF.

GOLD: aforesaid reasons are insisting investors and hedgers including central banks to accumulate gold as an alternative. So mid to long term gold will remain difficultly positive, currency war, regrouping of world political powers after fall of Soviet union, rising of China, cornered USA, indicating ancient reserve currency to glitter.

Correction is a part of the market movement and healthy correction always is an opportunity and as price is in record high area and volatility is very high in all sectors so better to stay cautious.

Globex SPOT GOLD made a outside day and engulfment yesterday, which indicate more lower prices ahead and one good sup is $1812-24 and major support $1794/98.

SILVER: volatility increased today, like gold, silver also in uptrend. sup here is $40.50 and one major trend sup $40, below can attract downward pressure while mcx dec silver major trend sup 62600 and any convincing break below can pull prices down towards 61k and 59800.

DJIA: weak econ situation and lack of confidence of any recovery, fear of 2^nd dip of recession supposed to take it lower. Looks became negative, forming secondary bullish channel which normally tends to break down. Nearby resistance 11650, 11800 and sup 10800 and 10600, convincing break below 10600 to move towards 10k and for a longer period possible target 8800.

NB: today US beige book, on tomorrow Obama speech regarding plan for creating jobs, ECB and UK interest rate decision, ECB Trichet’s speech, Fed Bernanke’s speech can attract more volatility in all sector at the same time direction. Mostly market is waiting for FOMC on 20th and 21st Sept.

Outlook 22.08.11

2011-08-22T20:45:00.002+05:30

There is difference between 2008 and 2011 market and on the background economical situation. The main point was that time big commercial houses failed mainly in US which lead others to become slow, but this time in EU zone countries govt are may in pressure due to huge debt including US but one thing is very common that’s fear.

In 2008 central banks put fund to protect but employment and housing unable to improve mainly in US but only financial market.

Some EU countries are in huge debt, taking breath with ECB bailout fund with a precondition to reduce deficit and likely to impose more taxes on citizens.

Corporates started to slash its manpower from months back in US and possibly in some places of EU and People are concerned.

Even at 2008 n later China bought US and EU countries debt and now under pressure although; …….Joe Biden on Sunday rejected views that American power is waning and said Washington would never default and still the single best bet in the world, in terms of where to invest as per cnbc.com..…

Egypt like agitation by people is rising globally, conflict between countries remain same.

All the countries are busy to protect their own currency and question about reserve currency and enough warning for a cold war state.

This weekend we’ve to cautiously watch what Mr. Bernanke is going to tell as market expectation is approx 50:50 condition regarding QE.

GOLD: all these points boosted gold historically and end is not visible yet. But any settlement above $1900 with a good day movement can push it to major psychological area of $2k.

SILVER: the typical silver movement as sent a report on 08^th aug and now cleared it was a bear trap (in globex) as shown on that. Strength in silver is seems back and base has completed on $32/$33 area, nearby res $45.5and $47.5 and sup $42.50-$42.70. Possibly we are going to get a sideways movement for few days within $47.5 and $50.5 and looks is challenging for a new record and according to extended fib it would be $59 and $78.

Outlook 04th Aug'11

2011-08-04T20:31:00.003+05:30

Global growth scenario darkening erasing hope of recovery and major equity indexes are correcting steadily and showing a possibility of downward trend is on the way at least for short to midterm although market is hoping for united approach of all govts and central banks. This time it may become bit difficult which may gold movement is suggesting.

GOLD: yesterday it made a record of $1675.9 (only a step far to reach $1700, long awaited target came earlier which expected till year end next expected areas are $1900 and $2300) and till now holding a narrow range of $1660-$1674 and showing more strength. From some sources words are coming as margin is going to be hiked and if so, it can trigger some liquidation and we‘ve to be cautious for near term but for mid to long the bullish trend‘ll be intact. Suggest to stay long with stop below $1658.

SILVER: it’s giving a bullish movement but in a different which sometimes looks like weakness. Yesterday it managed to settle above $41. What I’m thinking this movement can lead silver above its all time high of ($%0) which ‘ll be a very sharp and stiff. Suggest to stay long in silver keeping a stop $41.30.

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NIFTY; an expectation

2011-01-27T01:51:00.000+05:30

On daily basis spot nifty has given a double top confirmation (5750) from one angle and from another angle moving within a secondary bearish channel.

One suggests fast downward price movement and other suggest lower low and lower hi. From both angles can expect lower prices.

If we see last few days movement after giving the confirmation settling below 5750 on 14^th Jan’2011 unable to attract fall rather holds the area and moved within a range of 5625-5750. On 25^th Jan broke resistance of 5750, hits nearer resistance of 5800, but unable to sustain and moved down and closed on sup of 5680 which indicates weakness.

Now what can expect, sup of 5580/85 (declining lower line of channel, ‘ll be lower with time) need to break instantly for a sharply downward move otherwise to be within a downward channel, bit sideways within a channel forming lower highs and lower lows, either way 5000/5100 seems achievable.

This downward price move is likely a balancing of value or cooling overpriced stocks in global scenario.

market: a look b a c k

2011-01-19T18:10:00.009+05:30

Thursday, 01July 2008, (DOW, what is next), I wrote and first posted in Blog after getting a suggestion from our senior Mr Venkat……………..thank u sir……….

Now at present juncture DOWJONES covered its losses after the fall from the area it given a technical confirmation (pls go through the page).

Now the question is where it’s heading, for a new high, near the all time high or what?

QE is giving enough support, banks and corporates are in good shape but housing sector still down, employment also not gathering pace, unemployed are more, as a whole lack of any solid clue of growth but for hope nothing will worsen and huge fund with fund managers, ETFs’, index funds, it’s a rally as market is showing surprising strength (corporate earnings on the way).

Worrying situation is global geopolitical condition, economic power shifting leads to currency war even points to geopolitical tension, which can be worsen anytime and can make panicked. Soaring commodity prices (one reason is mother’s slap for spoiling balance) threatening inflation and in emerging countries it’s already showing red eye and pressuring growth.

Surprisingly all this points attracting investment in COMMODITIES, specially in metal sector. So wouldn't it be like ‘Hero Honda Ad’…… ‘Fill It and Forget It’(?).

IS GOLD GLITTERING?

2008-11-22T21:50:00.126+05:30

GOLD sharply higher on Fri,21Nov'08, able to break $768 and as soon as broken convincingly reached next area very fast and settled $791.80 after showing a high of $802.8, whereas spot gold closes $801.60, some hours later pit closes.

Some reports like World Gold Council showed Q3 of 2008 consumer demand was 249.5 tonnes, which is 31% higher than Q3 of 2007.

Some short covering, switch over of option expires and some opportunity of buying in the weekend before Thursday 27Nov'08, thanksgiving day holiday in US, taken prices higher.

At the same time, there was a criticism by former president of Iran on Friday on the comments of chief of IAEA.

Other counters like Dow Jones, Silver, Crude oil or Copper doesn't support Gold move higher as such on this Friday apart from some short covering or profit booking in the wekend.

DOW JONES broken last weeks low, on Friday made a new low of 7449.38 and after covering some shorts, closed at 8046.46 parallel to other major indices of world. Breaking of resistance 8495-580 can create some volatility and upward movement.

SILVER was within last weeks range and apart from sympathy buying with gold lately, didn't do much and able to kept it within a rectangle formation on weekly chart. Breaking of nearby resistance 986-88c can create some volatility and upward movement.

CRUDE OIL could be able to push higher with the event of biggest hijacking ever and farthest from Somalian shore of a Saudi Arabian supertanker carrying $100 million of crude. However, market discounted this event and made a new low of $48.25 for Jan'09 contract. Natural gas fallen below $2 after march'05when Dow Jones was 10805.63.

COPPER is also alike Dow and silver made a new low in this week, touched July'05 lows and didn't make any sign of turn back, only some little short covering at weekend.

I personally not very much optimistic about gold here at this price area even as an investment tools. Any sign yet to get about world economy to be corrected from here rather situation probably different. After US and EU, Japan has also entered into recession. China is in deep trouble with job cuts and slowing economy and before election, condition of India is not very clear but economy is slowing and unemployment is rising. People fear about recession and deeper recession but not deflation or hyper inflation, hopefully which global economy can avoid. So possible gold is going to leave this gain very soon if no blunder situation does occur.

Some comparison charts here below, within these, mainly silver is not supporting higher gold which can become alarming for gold, bcause it seems to have offload many longs:

At the end, I'm adding one box of charts, from which we can get eassily the price of GOLD in different currency:

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ECONOMY TODAY AND MARKET

2008-11-15T19:39:00.019+05:30

Today G20, group of developed and emerging countries, which is 85% of world’s economy and 2/3 of population, going to meet. The developed countries like UK and US are urging for supporting free economy and resist calls for protectionism. Now people from the globe are eagerly waiting for the outcome of G20. I doubt any magical solution to come out apart from commitment to work as unit with continuation of process.

We have seen only sideways movement week ended 15th of Nov ’08. Worsen condition of global economy as EU entered into recession, retail sales dropping , jobless numbers hitting higher globally and more than that the current situation alarming for deeper recession throughout .

Only hopeful point for industries mainly of US, as crude oil prices came lower $56 area which was expected on last writing of 8th Nov'08. If geopolitical situation is not going to get very hot, then chances for crude oil to hold lower side even high chances to show more low towards $50-51 with a possibility of steady USD but simultaneously it hampers oil producing countries interest, which can create another problem like increasing terror activities.

GOLD: Having the same idea just like last two weeks and expecting

sideways to downward movement . Possibility to get a triangle or rectangle formation in this area. Nearby resistance is $768 and major resistance will be $788/92 while support will be $680/82 and $664/68. Within short to mid term can expect to get $558/38 if I'm not very wrong.

If gold break and settles above the major resistance of $788/92, then we've to rethink because in this worsening economical situation it may happen due to some geopolitical uncertainty as the chances is there as mention before.

SILVER: The great speculative white metal, which is precious and at the same time have much higher use in major category of industries may going to form a clear descending channel pattern on daily chart . This week high was 1054c and low 877c. We can expect another few days to move within 828-38c to1064-72c range. Alike gold it is also may going to from a rectangle on weekly.
Outside of this range resistance is 1132-34c, 1178-79c while support below is 712c and 648-52c.

DOW JONES: Another week of consolidation we just have passed and may have to go for some more days sideways. It fails to hold on the bit positive formation it made as mentioned on 1st Nov ’08.
Nearby resistance 8855-60, 9180-220, 9345-55, 9780 and support 7950-60, 7860-70, 7400, 7100,

Apart from G20 meet scenario and some breaking updates about industries or central banks, the reports which we have to watch mainly as;
JAPAN: GDP, BOJ interest rate decision industry activity index.
EU: trade balance, construction output, PMI and Germany PPI, PMI.
US: capacity utilization, producer price index, industrial production, TIC flows, housing market index, mortgage applications, building permits, housing starts, CPI, FOMC minutes, continuing and initial jobless claims.
UK: consumer price index, retail price index, retail sales, BoE minutes, Q4 money supply.

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Outlook

2008-11-08T21:52:00.022+05:30

Big win of BARACK OBAMA in US presidential election, the first black man fulfilling the dream of the prominent leader of civil rights and human rights of US, MARTIN LUTHER KING jr, which matches and proves the philosophy of the great poet of India, RABINDRANATH TAKUR(TAGORE), created optimism with his bold, emotional, and convincing speech of change, not only in United Sates of America but also worldwide .

I doubt there is any magic to solve this economic problem instantly but surely implementation of some good policy possible, which will take time to give fruits.

No positive changes in economical front rather dipping in recession as per the reports. US unemployment raised and wide expectation of worldwide jobless number to increase, only in some countries as Australia was bit exception with surprising employment report which shows as part time jobs increases. US pending home sales of sept’08 was also down as reports shows on 7th nov’08, can expect lower in oct’08 report also because of worse employment and job cuts. These reports spur some more rate cut expectation.

Sideways movement we have seen this week ended in all Dow jones, gold, silver, copper and USD index also which may continue for another some days which may going to form triangle or rectangle pattern. I am keeping the same view with same levels as of now as per last week until some formation is going to be made, with eyes open on lowered crude oil price which possible targeting $56 and lowered international main food grain prices mainly, like corn, soybean, wheat and some others.

Coming week, we have to observe carefully the reports is coming mainly like trade balance of US, UK, Japan, BOE inflation report, GDP of Germany and EU, jobless claim of US, US retail sales.

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Market Outlook(weekly baseis)

2008-11-01T21:21:00.021+05:30

Still there is no clear positive sign for the global economy rather dipping. We just completed this weak which was month end at the same time. All the major central banks cut their key interest rates and signals more rate cut is ahead as the downside risk of economy persists.

ECB and BOE rate decision is there in next weak and expectation of rate cut. Possible some more USD strength we are likely going to see.

GOLD: I’m having with the same idea as my last report of lower gold with resistance of $788/92, while it showed a high of $778.30 on 30th Oct08. I am expecting some more liquidation to come.

Immediate support $680/82 and below $664/68. Breaking of $664/68, door‘ll open for $604. In mid term to short term $558/38 on the cards.

DOW JONES: it has given the weekly settlement above 8900, which formed a double bottom with a divergence(RSI), outside candle in weekly, with a positive settelment, which technically push prices higher once, I feel some more short covering and buying was there, which may continue at least for another few days which in turn to lead to long liquidation in gold.

Resistance of Dow is 9800/20, 10335 and 10680/750. Breaking down of 8378/58 can diminish the strength of somewhat positive formation.

SILVER: possible we‘ve to wait more time for silver to get any positive technical formation altough after forming a doji in last week it forms a outside high wave candle. Expecting stiff movement breaking the range of support 828/38 and resistance 1037/39 extended to 1064-72, in other word it may consolidate within the range at least for some days.

Resistance is 1132/34c, 1178/79c, and 1246/48c while support below 828/38 is 712c and 648/52c.

DOWJONES the major index outlook

2008-10-25T14:19:00.000+05:30

Already we've noticed the crash of all the markets globally. My expectation about Dow as my last post 'dow, what is next of 1st July'08 ' has reached 8000/100 and showed a low of 7882.

Why I'm interested in Dow, b'coz it's the major index of the major economy and can get some clue for base metals or precious metals even our national stock market. National share indices are fallen almost Parrnell but all metal prices are in comparison higher b'coz of USD/INR weakness but at times it'll get balanced.

What can expect now?? Global fundamental situation is not very much clear, huge panic is there, at the same time technically bottom has not formed yet.

Bail out plans for financial sector, reduced food grain prices(US), lowered base metal and crude prices and worse jobless situation may help industries to get some support at least to take a breath to get more news which can show some further direction.

Next possible support area of 7050/150 and 6550 to take a breath at least. In the mid term 5800/5850 can't b ruled out. Before breaking lows, any weekly settlement above 8900, can boost Dow to push up higher.

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