bhaswar

heading where:

2012-01-26T02:30:00.000+05:30

HAPPY REPUBLIC DAY

Market after FOMC:

As per my last thought posted here its going fine till now. USDINR about to reach final target for now.

Cude oil: yet to make a leap rather retested the support of $77.50/70 area and now seems getting ready for a very near term breakout above $101.50 area(settlement to watch) and again res of $103.8/104 will be the challenged to breached for a shoot up for possible target towards $115 (marked as*) followed by a mild res $104.80/105.20 and $108, $111.

Spread option is still looking fine . its within 12.3 to 10 till now.

SPREAD OPTION: BUY $SWEET, SELL $BRENT

DOW(spot): 2011 high is now facing the challenge.

GOLD: this move was due and given a solid breakout last night and pointing towards $1765, $1800, $1834/40. staying above and steadyness will challenge the record high.

SILVER: it was outshining gold for last few days. now to face res $33.70 and $35.50. breakout area as per continuation basis and spot basis is comming $36.50.

COPPER: Dr is supported abov $3.75, res $4.02, $4.20 and a range can consider within $3.75 to $4.20.

** market is risk, volatility making it riskier.

Outlook after 1st week of 2012

2012-01-09T03:30:00.000+05:30

Outlook for USDINR, Light sweet crude and Brent crude

INDICES, GOLD and SILVER

USDINR (spot): first nearby res 52.40 and convincing break and settlement as shown (CI1) with arrow will confirm a double top (of 1and 2 as shown) and tends to stronger area towards 51.20(1^st target area) followed by 51.85. Secondly, any convincing break and staying below and settlement below of 51.20, which will confirm a H&S formation, which may indicate towards 49.85 followed by fib 38.2% at 50.10 (2^nd or final target on the basis of situation within 50.10-49.85 area) and 48.90 (final target, which is also fib 50% .

BRENT CRUDE vs LS CRUDE (continuation base):

SPREAD OPTION: BUY $SWEET, SELL $BRENT

LS crude: formed a reverse H&S(showed as 1,2,3 and confirmation on res) and holds above with a +ve week on candle chart (Jan’12 contract) although nearby res $103.8. a positive move is better option for future expectation. If so, then any convincing breakout above $103.8/104, a shoot up can possible towards $115 (marked as*) followed by a mild res $104.80/105.20 and $108, $111.

BRENT: alike LS crude it also seems +ve on chart(continuation basis) but ‘ve to face 1^st hurdle at res $116 as months back faced a false break out or bull trap (shown as ‘F’ and within a circle). If can breach above then next res is coming as $122.

DOW (spot): alike cl, it has also making a reverse H$S, nearby res 12430, and any convincing break higher likely to push towards 2011 hi of 12876 (and a long ascending trend res @13130-160). If so better to keep in mind its all time high is 14198 on 11/10/2007.

S&P (spot): following dow and can complete a reverse H&S if capable to settle above 1295 convincingly. If so anda descending res‘ll be @1308/10 and 2011 high of 1370.

NIFTY (spot): any convincing break above 4790 can push towards 4835/40 and follow through and good settlement can push towards 5030 and 5100.

SENSEX (spot): convincing break above 16050 and follow through with good settlement can push towards 17k/17100 followed by 16750.
GOLD: sustaining above long term ascending sup line on weekly basis.
SILVER: naturally volatile as a speculative metal. Tested 2011 low of in the yearend.

Still seeing specially precious is bullish in midterm and ferociously bullish in long term. I’m waiting for getting a better entry point to avoid hit by volatility.

NB: This for sharing thought and interest.

MARKET: DONE/OVERDONE, MATCH/MISMATCH

2011-10-28T16:54:00.000+05:30

MARKET: DONE/OVERDONE, MATCH/MISMATCH

The movement, mainly of indices seems a relief rally with support of euro zone debt deal.

Think better to wait n watch to get the direction from market for directional trade. Level based and intraday trade preferable.

Outlook:07.10.11

2011-10-07T19:29:00.000+05:30

DOW: on 5th dow(spot) broken strong sup of 10600, hits a low of 10400, the near term decending trend channel sup but covered sharply, made a new day hi in last 40 mins of trading and settled at 10808 (400 points offlows). in the background +ve talk reg EU banks and repeated dialog by mr bernanke reg easing may boosted this movement despite the _ve global situation remains.
now to watch the decending trend channel res area to whach, which is coming @ 11240 at the same time US payroll and employment reports scheduled to release @ 018.00 hrs IST.
probablity of capping the upward move in this area.

GOLD: holds the sup of $1600 on 05th oct and again moving back to the potential res of $1680/82.
altough for mid to long term still its very much bullish but near term lower prices still can expect. nearby potential res area $1682 (extn $1702), suup $1600, $1580 (can't be rulled out to get the area of $1530 again to retest). sideways ot lower till holding below potential res area of $1682-$1702.

SILVER: too much volatile but within a big range. ability of breach $30.32/34 on 5th oct, made a +ve day candle formation and with outside market sup, able to take out res of $31.5 towards potential res of $33.50.
for near term sideways to lower and a chance of retest of $26.30 till holding below the potential res of $33.50.

COPPER: dr. was a gentle counter and this is the first time it is showing this volatility and indicates the econ outlook. $3.33 is a key res today to watch, holding of this res give a hope to get copper towards $3 or lower but breaching and staying abov $3.33, next res will come @ $3.50.
NB: market is typically volatile, but market do the logical only. foreseeing the unforseen realy need to maintain stop always and obviously now when it is too volatile with big movement.

Outlook 07.09.11

2011-09-07T21:42:00.004+05:30

We are passing historic time as both major economies of US and EU (as united) is in gloomy situation and possibly solution is far reach and can dampen global growth.

As economic power is transforming and ongoing question is arising with changing situation about USD as reserve currency, which argument is hot now a days and individually 2^nd largest economy China openly wished for Yuan to become a reserve currency (although they may know its not very easy to replace or a time taking process ). Nigerian central Bank governor told yesterday to Invest 5% To 10% of their reserves In Yuan‎(effect of china's long time effort on African countries).

In recent time we ‘ve seen central banks coming openly to protect own currency which dampening safe heaven image of some particular currencies like USD and CHF. As an example SNB intervention yesterday made it weaker for more than 700 pips against USD, possibly it was a historic move for USDCHF.

GOLD: aforesaid reasons are insisting investors and hedgers including central banks to accumulate gold as an alternative. So mid to long term gold will remain difficultly positive, currency war, regrouping of world political powers after fall of Soviet union, rising of China, cornered USA, indicating ancient reserve currency to glitter.

Correction is a part of the market movement and healthy correction always is an opportunity and as price is in record high area and volatility is very high in all sectors so better to stay cautious.

Globex SPOT GOLD made a outside day and engulfment yesterday, which indicate more lower prices ahead and one good sup is $1812-24 and major support $1794/98.

SILVER: volatility increased today, like gold, silver also in uptrend. sup here is $40.50 and one major trend sup $40, below can attract downward pressure while mcx dec silver major trend sup 62600 and any convincing break below can pull prices down towards 61k and 59800.

DJIA: weak econ situation and lack of confidence of any recovery, fear of 2^nd dip of recession supposed to take it lower. Looks became negative, forming secondary bullish channel which normally tends to break down. Nearby resistance 11650, 11800 and sup 10800 and 10600, convincing break below 10600 to move towards 10k and for a longer period possible target 8800.

NB: today US beige book, on tomorrow Obama speech regarding plan for creating jobs, ECB and UK interest rate decision, ECB Trichet’s speech, Fed Bernanke’s speech can attract more volatility in all sector at the same time direction. Mostly market is waiting for FOMC on 20th and 21st Sept.

Outlook 22.08.11

2011-08-22T20:45:00.002+05:30

There is difference between 2008 and 2011 market and on the background economical situation. The main point was that time big commercial houses failed mainly in US which lead others to become slow, but this time in EU zone countries govt are may in pressure due to huge debt including US but one thing is very common that’s fear.

In 2008 central banks put fund to protect but employment and housing unable to improve mainly in US but only financial market.

Some EU countries are in huge debt, taking breath with ECB bailout fund with a precondition to reduce deficit and likely to impose more taxes on citizens.

Corporates started to slash its manpower from months back in US and possibly in some places of EU and People are concerned.

Even at 2008 n later China bought US and EU countries debt and now under pressure although; …….Joe Biden on Sunday rejected views that American power is waning and said Washington would never default and still the single best bet in the world, in terms of where to invest as per cnbc.com..…

Egypt like agitation by people is rising globally, conflict between countries remain same.

All the countries are busy to protect their own currency and question about reserve currency and enough warning for a cold war state.

This weekend we’ve to cautiously watch what Mr. Bernanke is going to tell as market expectation is approx 50:50 condition regarding QE.

GOLD: all these points boosted gold historically and end is not visible yet. But any settlement above $1900 with a good day movement can push it to major psychological area of $2k.

SILVER: the typical silver movement as sent a report on 08^th aug and now cleared it was a bear trap (in globex) as shown on that. Strength in silver is seems back and base has completed on $32/$33 area, nearby res $45.5and $47.5 and sup $42.50-$42.70. Possibly we are going to get a sideways movement for few days within $47.5 and $50.5 and looks is challenging for a new record and according to extended fib it would be $59 and $78.

Outlook 04th Aug'11

2011-08-04T20:31:00.003+05:30

Global growth scenario darkening erasing hope of recovery and major equity indexes are correcting steadily and showing a possibility of downward trend is on the way at least for short to midterm although market is hoping for united approach of all govts and central banks. This time it may become bit difficult which may gold movement is suggesting.

GOLD: yesterday it made a record of $1675.9 (only a step far to reach $1700, long awaited target came earlier which expected till year end next expected areas are $1900 and $2300) and till now holding a narrow range of $1660-$1674 and showing more strength. From some sources words are coming as margin is going to be hiked and if so, it can trigger some liquidation and we‘ve to be cautious for near term but for mid to long the bullish trend‘ll be intact. Suggest to stay long with stop below $1658.

SILVER: it’s giving a bullish movement but in a different which sometimes looks like weakness. Yesterday it managed to settle above $41. What I’m thinking this movement can lead silver above its all time high of ($%0) which ‘ll be a very sharp and stiff. Suggest to stay long in silver keeping a stop $41.30.

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NIFTY; an expectation

2011-01-27T01:51:00.000+05:30

On daily basis spot nifty has given a double top confirmation (5750) from one angle and from another angle moving within a secondary bearish channel.

One suggests fast downward price movement and other suggest lower low and lower hi. From both angles can expect lower prices.

If we see last few days movement after giving the confirmation settling below 5750 on 14^th Jan’2011 unable to attract fall rather holds the area and moved within a range of 5625-5750. On 25^th Jan broke resistance of 5750, hits nearer resistance of 5800, but unable to sustain and moved down and closed on sup of 5680 which indicates weakness.

Now what can expect, sup of 5580/85 (declining lower line of channel, ‘ll be lower with time) need to break instantly for a sharply downward move otherwise to be within a downward channel, bit sideways within a channel forming lower highs and lower lows, either way 5000/5100 seems achievable.

This downward price move is likely a balancing of value or cooling overpriced stocks in global scenario.

market: a look b a c k

2011-01-19T18:10:00.009+05:30

Thursday, 01July 2008, (DOW, what is next), I wrote and first posted in Blog after getting a suggestion from our senior Mr Venkat……………..thank u sir……….

Now at present juncture DOWJONES covered its losses after the fall from the area it given a technical confirmation (pls go through the page).

Now the question is where it’s heading, for a new high, near the all time high or what?

QE is giving enough support, banks and corporates are in good shape but housing sector still down, employment also not gathering pace, unemployed are more, as a whole lack of any solid clue of growth but for hope nothing will worsen and huge fund with fund managers, ETFs’, index funds, it’s a rally as market is showing surprising strength (corporate earnings on the way).

Worrying situation is global geopolitical condition, economic power shifting leads to currency war even points to geopolitical tension, which can be worsen anytime and can make panicked. Soaring commodity prices (one reason is mother’s slap for spoiling balance) threatening inflation and in emerging countries it’s already showing red eye and pressuring growth.

Surprisingly all this points attracting investment in COMMODITIES, specially in metal sector. So wouldn't it be like ‘Hero Honda Ad’…… ‘Fill It and Forget It’(?).

IS GOLD GLITTERING?

2008-11-22T21:50:00.126+05:30

GOLD sharply higher on Fri,21Nov'08, able to break $768 and as soon as broken convincingly reached next area very fast and settled $791.80 after showing a high of $802.8, whereas spot gold closes $801.60, some hours later pit closes.

Some reports like World Gold Council showed Q3 of 2008 consumer demand was 249.5 tonnes, which is 31% higher than Q3 of 2007.

Some short covering, switch over of option expires and some opportunity of buying in the weekend before Thursday 27Nov'08, thanksgiving day holiday in US, taken prices higher.

At the same time, there was a criticism by former president of Iran on Friday on the comments of chief of IAEA.

Other counters like Dow Jones, Silver, Crude oil or Copper doesn't support Gold move higher as such on this Friday apart from some short covering or profit booking in the wekend.

DOW JONES broken last weeks low, on Friday made a new low of 7449.38 and after covering some shorts, closed at 8046.46 parallel to other major indices of world. Breaking of resistance 8495-580 can create some volatility and upward movement.

SILVER was within last weeks range and apart from sympathy buying with gold lately, didn't do much and able to kept it within a rectangle formation on weekly chart. Breaking of nearby resistance 986-88c can create some volatility and upward movement.

CRUDE OIL could be able to push higher with the event of biggest hijacking ever and farthest from Somalian shore of a Saudi Arabian supertanker carrying $100 million of crude. However, market discounted this event and made a new low of $48.25 for Jan'09 contract. Natural gas fallen below $2 after march'05when Dow Jones was 10805.63.

COPPER is also alike Dow and silver made a new low in this week, touched July'05 lows and didn't make any sign of turn back, only some little short covering at weekend.

I personally not very much optimistic about gold here at this price area even as an investment tools. Any sign yet to get about world economy to be corrected from here rather situation probably different. After US and EU, Japan has also entered into recession. China is in deep trouble with job cuts and slowing economy and before election, condition of India is not very clear but economy is slowing and unemployment is rising. People fear about recession and deeper recession but not deflation or hyper inflation, hopefully which global economy can avoid. So possible gold is going to leave this gain very soon if no blunder situation does occur.

Some comparison charts here below, within these, mainly silver is not supporting higher gold which can become alarming for gold, bcause it seems to have offload many longs:

At the end, I'm adding one box of charts, from which we can get eassily the price of GOLD in different currency:

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ECONOMY TODAY AND MARKET

2008-11-15T19:39:00.019+05:30

Today G20, group of developed and emerging countries, which is 85% of world’s economy and 2/3 of population, going to meet. The developed countries like UK and US are urging for supporting free economy and resist calls for protectionism. Now people from the globe are eagerly waiting for the outcome of G20. I doubt any magical solution to come out apart from commitment to work as unit with continuation of process.

We have seen only sideways movement week ended 15th of Nov ’08. Worsen condition of global economy as EU entered into recession, retail sales dropping , jobless numbers hitting higher globally and more than that the current situation alarming for deeper recession throughout .

Only hopeful point for industries mainly of US, as crude oil prices came lower $56 area which was expected on last writing of 8th Nov'08. If geopolitical situation is not going to get very hot, then chances for crude oil to hold lower side even high chances to show more low towards $50-51 with a possibility of steady USD but simultaneously it hampers oil producing countries interest, which can create another problem like increasing terror activities.

GOLD: Having the same idea just like last two weeks and expecting

sideways to downward movement . Possibility to get a triangle or rectangle formation in this area. Nearby resistance is $768 and major resistance will be $788/92 while support will be $680/82 and $664/68. Within short to mid term can expect to get $558/38 if I'm not very wrong.

If gold break and settles above the major resistance of $788/92, then we've to rethink because in this worsening economical situation it may happen due to some geopolitical uncertainty as the chances is there as mention before.

SILVER: The great speculative white metal, which is precious and at the same time have much higher use in major category of industries may going to form a clear descending channel pattern on daily chart . This week high was 1054c and low 877c. We can expect another few days to move within 828-38c to1064-72c range. Alike gold it is also may going to from a rectangle on weekly.
Outside of this range resistance is 1132-34c, 1178-79c while support below is 712c and 648-52c.

DOW JONES: Another week of consolidation we just have passed and may have to go for some more days sideways. It fails to hold on the bit positive formation it made as mentioned on 1st Nov ’08.
Nearby resistance 8855-60, 9180-220, 9345-55, 9780 and support 7950-60, 7860-70, 7400, 7100,

Apart from G20 meet scenario and some breaking updates about industries or central banks, the reports which we have to watch mainly as;
JAPAN: GDP, BOJ interest rate decision industry activity index.
EU: trade balance, construction output, PMI and Germany PPI, PMI.
US: capacity utilization, producer price index, industrial production, TIC flows, housing market index, mortgage applications, building permits, housing starts, CPI, FOMC minutes, continuing and initial jobless claims.
UK: consumer price index, retail price index, retail sales, BoE minutes, Q4 money supply.

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Outlook

2008-11-08T21:52:00.022+05:30

Big win of BARACK OBAMA in US presidential election, the first black man fulfilling the dream of the prominent leader of civil rights and human rights of US, MARTIN LUTHER KING jr, which matches and proves the philosophy of the great poet of India, RABINDRANATH TAKUR(TAGORE), created optimism with his bold, emotional, and convincing speech of change, not only in United Sates of America but also worldwide .

I doubt there is any magic to solve this economic problem instantly but surely implementation of some good policy possible, which will take time to give fruits.

No positive changes in economical front rather dipping in recession as per the reports. US unemployment raised and wide expectation of worldwide jobless number to increase, only in some countries as Australia was bit exception with surprising employment report which shows as part time jobs increases. US pending home sales of sept’08 was also down as reports shows on 7th nov’08, can expect lower in oct’08 report also because of worse employment and job cuts. These reports spur some more rate cut expectation.

Sideways movement we have seen this week ended in all Dow jones, gold, silver, copper and USD index also which may continue for another some days which may going to form triangle or rectangle pattern. I am keeping the same view with same levels as of now as per last week until some formation is going to be made, with eyes open on lowered crude oil price which possible targeting $56 and lowered international main food grain prices mainly, like corn, soybean, wheat and some others.

Coming week, we have to observe carefully the reports is coming mainly like trade balance of US, UK, Japan, BOE inflation report, GDP of Germany and EU, jobless claim of US, US retail sales.

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Market Outlook(weekly baseis)

2008-11-01T21:21:00.021+05:30

Still there is no clear positive sign for the global economy rather dipping. We just completed this weak which was month end at the same time. All the major central banks cut their key interest rates and signals more rate cut is ahead as the downside risk of economy persists.

ECB and BOE rate decision is there in next weak and expectation of rate cut. Possible some more USD strength we are likely going to see.

GOLD: I’m having with the same idea as my last report of lower gold with resistance of $788/92, while it showed a high of $778.30 on 30th Oct08. I am expecting some more liquidation to come.

Immediate support $680/82 and below $664/68. Breaking of $664/68, door‘ll open for $604. In mid term to short term $558/38 on the cards.

DOW JONES: it has given the weekly settlement above 8900, which formed a double bottom with a divergence(RSI), outside candle in weekly, with a positive settelment, which technically push prices higher once, I feel some more short covering and buying was there, which may continue at least for another few days which in turn to lead to long liquidation in gold.

Resistance of Dow is 9800/20, 10335 and 10680/750. Breaking down of 8378/58 can diminish the strength of somewhat positive formation.

SILVER: possible we‘ve to wait more time for silver to get any positive technical formation altough after forming a doji in last week it forms a outside high wave candle. Expecting stiff movement breaking the range of support 828/38 and resistance 1037/39 extended to 1064-72, in other word it may consolidate within the range at least for some days.

Resistance is 1132/34c, 1178/79c, and 1246/48c while support below 828/38 is 712c and 648/52c.

DOWJONES the major index outlook

2008-10-25T14:19:00.000+05:30

Already we've noticed the crash of all the markets globally. My expectation about Dow as my last post 'dow, what is next of 1st July'08 ' has reached 8000/100 and showed a low of 7882.

Why I'm interested in Dow, b'coz it's the major index of the major economy and can get some clue for base metals or precious metals even our national stock market. National share indices are fallen almost Parrnell but all metal prices are in comparison higher b'coz of USD/INR weakness but at times it'll get balanced.

What can expect now?? Global fundamental situation is not very much clear, huge panic is there, at the same time technically bottom has not formed yet.

Bail out plans for financial sector, reduced food grain prices(US), lowered base metal and crude prices and worse jobless situation may help industries to get some support at least to take a breath to get more news which can show some further direction.

Next possible support area of 7050/150 and 6550 to take a breath at least. In the mid term 5800/5850 can't b ruled out. Before breaking lows, any weekly settlement above 8900, can boost Dow to push up higher.

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GOLD OUTLOOK (short to mid term)

2008-10-24T19:51:00.000+05:30

Big question is whether we can go with gold as an investment tool in this area or not? In my view surely gold is solid investment tool but in this price area within current world economic situation should not.

Within very few days may within 1st half of next week we can see gold to move within a range of $664/68 to $748/52. Immediate support $672/74 and $664/668 and immediate resistance is $737and $748/52.Extreme resistance is $788/92 which should not break even not to touch.

In short to mid term can see to gold break the support area of $664/668 towards $572/76, $558 and $538. Possible a consolidation phase can get after getting this support area of $558-$538.

If due to any reason it breaks resistance of $788/92 and can able to hold above then some different situation can arise, although it’s a slim chance.

PEOPLE, MARKET, POLITICIANS, MONEY

2008-07-28T14:13:00.000+05:30

The typical economical problem: It’s known by everybody that the typical problem before the world is now a days is inflation and at the same time slower growth. But the question is why this stiff inflation??
If we want to go for the answer then some simple things we’ve to think, first of that, what is our first and primary demand to live (?), yes that’s food, which we can get by cultivation only. Production of various crops is not matching the demand; it’s not the main reason??

Natural calamity is one reason behind less production of various crops, but it’s not the only one. Bad quality seeds supplying to cultivators and grabbing of cultivation land for industrialization and other reasons is certainly a serious factor for food when the population is largely ticking higher.

Another one reason behind inflation is rocket high crude prices, which hampering industrial growth. Although world’s biggest economy is going downside of economical cycle, but expectation of higher demand of crude for India, China, Brazil and some other countries, fear of finishing resources and geopolitical unrest is pushing prices higher.

National condition:
In case of our India, we are not out of this problem rather some adverse reason is more is here because some of our leaders are know only politics, badly followers of some others and can throw in ‘recycle bin’ any suggestion if given by the experts.

Example of some eye-washing attempts :
Paddy: Govt fixed some moderate price of paddy to give some relief to cultivators. But the funny thing is buying from mill owners not from the cultivators directly. What the reason behind this??
Wheat: ministers declared we produced more wheat than estimate but what is price in the retail market??
Potato: in all over the country production is really superb and more than normal demand. Cultivators are crying by not getting the price of their production cost. Sometime ministers are telling they’ll fix some better price for cultivators and buying from them, sometime telling they’ll give subsidy for export (will it anyway to help cultivators??), but time is passing only.
But at what is the price in the daily retail market?? Its 7-8 Rs/kg. So who is getting the money in the middle??

Ban on futures market:
Future market is to hedge the underlying risk for exporters, importers, mill owners, cultivators even for the general people also. Only the need is awareness and knowledge. This future market is for better price discovery. Only need is more and maximum participation which can come by creating awareness only.
Some politicians (we have blind faith on politicians and feel proud to be a follower) shouted the higher food prices are due to this futures market. So banned this food items to save the people and shouted by alerting police to keep eye and take action (?) against black marketer and hoarders.
Govt did the ban ignoring the expert committee report. Whenever govt banned on some items (previously on rice and wheat) the price started jumping higher.

So would it be very wrong if we think that to give some better room to black marketers and hoarders (aren’t the main money supplier for political leaders?), politicians taking chances of lack of awareness of the general people and making the general people fool and put us in more trouble??

((Dear friend, I need your opinion and comments on this topic, please do share))

sunshine

2008-07-04T15:56:00.000+05:30

DOW, what is next

2008-07-01T16:29:00.000+05:30

Dow formed a head and shoulder in monthly chart and given the confirmation. It normally indicates a possibility of downward movement. Next major support area will be around 10325/75. Breaking of this area may take it to next area around 8000/100.
Nearby resistance area‘ll be around 12100/200.
RSI entered into oversold area and can become more oversold.
Only any major changes like sudden weakness in crude or any other major data can give some volatility.