PRICE CATCH

Global Inflation - Can't fight this one!!

noreply@blogger.com (Rohan Samant) — Thu, 29 May 2008 05:30:00 +0000

Things have changed a lot in the last one year. Sub prime crisis has slowed the US economy substantially; Yen carry trade has reduced, as the responsibility to create bubbles around the world is taken over by the Federal Reserve by cutting interest rates below the inflation rate; and the dollar has depreciated against anything and everything.

Inflation has gone up across the globe which is reflected by the “Official numbers” of the Central banks (which are always suspiciously lower than the ground reality). Inflation is far too distant from the “Comfort zones” of the Central banks and yet they are doing nothing about it. And actually they can do nothing about it. Take for example India or China; If Reserve Bank of India raises interest rates it will surely slow the Indian economy down but won’t substantially reduce inflation as the inflation that we are facing today is “Global inflation” fuelled by easy monetary policy in the US. Raising interest rates would be a double whammy as it would slow your economy down without curtailing inflation leading to “Stagflation” which the US and the European economies faced in the 1970’s.

Crude oil prices crossed 130$/barrel last week. The rally in crude is purely investor driven. It is the side effect of the medicine that the Federal Reserve gave to save the US economy. Money will flow wherever yield is more and as the US treasury is yielding less than inflation, money is flowing to the root cause of inflation i.e. the commodities (especially Crude Oil) which is further fuelling inflation around the globe.

We are in a tight situation today. You cannot expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates as that would surely put the US economy in recession; you cannot expect Central Banks in the emerging economies to raise rates as that would lead to stagflation; you cannot expect the inflation to cool off with the continuing easy money policy. But what you can expect though is that there would be a new chapter in the Economics book for your kids and grandkids.

We are back!!!

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Thu, 08 May 2008 18:27:00 +0000

Its been a long time that we drew up the curtains and let some sunlight come on to this blog of ours!!! Now that we are no longer hibernating and we are back in action. I have a few things to be notified to the blog readers.

Firstly, our sincere apologies for those who missed us for a brief comment on the down-trail of the economies of the world, infamous stories of recessions, the rock-dance-effects of the currency, and the hesitant mergers. (Sarcasm intended)

Another point to be made is that the theme of the blog might be altered for the obvious reasons of interests. We wish to make it interesting and knowledgeable for our patient readers.

Looking forward for a better tenure as a blog writer and the rewards I expect, (Yes I do expect them) is nothing but some good comments and a stimulating discussion.

Liquidity and the resultant "Bubble Bath"

noreply@blogger.com (Rohan Samant) — Wed, 09 May 2007 16:57:00 +0000

The world economy has witnessed a phenomenal rise in asset prices across all asset classes in the last four years. There are a lot of bubbles floating around. Be it World Equities, US treasuries, Commodities, gold, Crude oil etc. It has generated huge exuberance and has led everyone to believe that we are in a totally new economic era derived from Globalisation. At the same time it has got a few economic think tanks worried.

The most accepted reason for the current asset inflation is “Liquidity”. But no one has yet come up with a proper explanation as to what the word really means. And how long will this liquidity persist in the world economy. The unlocking of this query would help us in guessing whether we are truly in a new economic era or we are witnessing an epic asset bubble.

Two reasons can be associated with this phenomenon. First being the Depreciation of Dollar and Second being Debt.

Depreciation of Dollar:
Dollar has been inherently weak for years now. Economists had been bearish on the Dollar in the late 1990’s. But Dollar never actually depreciated against other currencies. The reason for this was the exporting nations of Asia and South America, who artificially held back their currency to support the Dollar and their exports in turn. Especially China which has been constantly running trade surpluses had till recently not allowed the Yuan to appreciate against the dollar.

So these economies artificially depreciated the value of their currency against an inherently weak dollar. The result of this was that, the purchasing power of these currencies against assets went down thus leading to asset inflation.

Debt:
Banking system is known for its ability to create money through credit. There have been a lot of innovations that were introduced in the past decade which has revolutionized the way credit is given and the way it can be availed. Credit derivatives and Securitisation of debt are two examples of these innovations.

In case of Securitisation of Debt, a lender converts his advances into securities which are purchased by investors. So the lender receives money against these securities which he uses to make further advances. This process continues till the lender faces the statutory hurdles. In the process the lender ends up creating money in the economy which is far more substantial than the money created by the “Classic Banking System”.

If we add these two things together what we get is first of all - weak cash and secondly -too much of it. Thus weak cash makes assets expensive and the excess cash chases these assets further inflating their prices.

How long can this continue?
Dollar has started depreciating against the Asian currencies like the Yuan and Rupee. Thus pressure from this angle is somewhat deteriorating. But Debt has still not moderated. The recent debacle in the Subprime mortgage in the US has still not smartened the regulators. So this aspect of the equation still prevails.

pricecatch.blogspot.com

Hugo Chavez nationalizes oil assets - Threat to US energy security

noreply@blogger.com (Rohan Samant) — Thu, 03 May 2007 10:42:00 +0000

Venezuela is the Fifth largest oil producer in the world. On May 1 2007(May day) Hugo Chavez the President of Venezuela nationalized Orinoco Belt crude projects. Thousands of workers wearing red hats, helmets and flags backed by troops marched to occupy the multi-billion-dollar installations.

"Today, we are ending this perverse era," Chavez shouted, "We have buried this policy of the opening up of our oil ... an opening that was nothing more than an attempt to take away from Venezuelans their most powerful and biggest natural resource".

Behind him was a huge banner reading "Full oil sovereignty. Road to socialism".

This is a major event as Chavez has anti-American sentiments which has led him to befriend Iranian President Ahmadinejad. Iran is the fourth largest oil producer in the world. This is a severe set back to the US, which gives high priority to its energy security. Infact one can say that Iraq war was much more to do with energy security than "Weapons of mass destruction". Saudi Arabia is the biggest oil producer in the world followed by Iraq. US virtually controls the Saudi oil assets and oil assets of Kuwait and today Iraq. If the US does invade Iran, US would control the biggest oil assets in the world.

Russian military intelligence services are reporting a flurry of activity by U.S. Armed Forces near Iran's borders. U.S. Naval presence in the Persian Gulf has for the first time in the past four years reached the level that existed shortly before the invasion of Iraq in March 2003.

Balance of Trade

noreply@blogger.com (Jatin) — Sun, 22 Apr 2007 11:11:00 +0000

The balance of payments accounts capture two sides of an equation: the current account and the capital account. The current account side of the ledger covers the flow of goods, services, investment income, and uncompensated transfers such as foreign aid and remittances across borders by private citizens. Within the current account, the trade balance includes goods and services only, and the merchandise trade balance reflects goods only. On the other side, the capital account includes the buying and selling of investment assets such as real estate, stocks, bonds, and government securities.

If a country runs a capital account surplus of $100 billion, it will run a current account deficit of $100 billion to balance its payments. If a country is buying more goods and services from the rest of the world than it is selling, the country must also be selling more assets to the rest of the world than it is buying.

The necessary balance between the current account and the capital account implies a direct connection between the trade balance on the one hand and the savings and investment balance on the other. That relationship is captured in the simple formula:

Savings - Investment = Exports - Imports

Thus, a nation that saves more than it invests, such as Japan, will export its excess savings in the form of net foreign investment. In other words, it must run a capital account deficit. The money sent abroad as investment will return to the country to purchase exports in excess of what the country imports, creating a corresponding trade surplus. A nation that invests more than it saves--the United States, for example--must import capital from abroad. In other words, it must run a capital account surplus. The imported capital allows the nation's citizens to consume more goods and services than they produce, importing the difference through a trade deficit.

Now, foreigners can use dollars to purchase U.S. assets: stocks, bonds, bank deposits, government debt, real estate, businesses. When Toyota buys land and equipment for a factory in the United States, when a British investment fund buys stock in a U.S. corporation, when a German bank purchases U.S. Treasury bonds, then the United States is said to be "financing" its current account deficit by selling assets. In 2002, foreigners acquired $612 billion in U.S. assets.

The United States has run persistent and increasing current account deficits since the 1980s, and foreigners have used the dollars to stake significant claims on U.S. assets. At the end of 2007, the value of U.S. assets owned by foreigners exceeded the value of foreign assets owned by U.S. residents by around $3 trillion. This is the reason the United States is often said to be a debtor nation, with a net debt to the rest of the world of. This "debt" is denominated in their own currency. For that reason, dollar is weakening.

Forecasts by The Economist magazine

noreply@blogger.com (Rohan Samant) — Sun, 22 Apr 2007 06:18:00 +0000

From the Economist Intelligence Unit
Source: Country Forecast

India:
The booming economy is likely to keep the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government, led by the Indian National Congress, in power in 2007-08. The prime minister, Manmohan Singh, will continue to push for economic reforms but will be constrained by the practicalities of governing on a coalition basis. The outcome of the next general election, which must be held by May 2009, is likely to be another coalition government. Monetary policy will continue to be tightened during 2007, but will be eased gradually thereafter. Real GDP growth is forecast to remain very strong during the forecast period, averaging 8.3% in fiscal year 2007/08 (April-March) and 8% in 2008/09. Inflationary pressures will be difficult to control. Strong domestic demand will lead to a significant widening of the merchandise trade deficit over the forecast period, but surpluses on the services and transfers accounts will limit the current-account deficit to less than 3% of GDP in 2007-08.

USA:
The Republican president, George Bush, faces a Congress dominated by the Democrats. Given constitutional checks and balances, this will make it difficult for both Democrats and Republicans to advance their often competing agendas. Instead, both parties will focus on preparing for the 2008 presidential and congressional elections. Federal finances have improved, but there is limited resolve to tackle looming holes in healthcare and public pensions programmes. Monetary policy tightening has ended, with the next move by the Federal Reserve (central bank) expected to be an interest rate cut in September 2007. But higher interest rates are having an adverse effect on the housing market, with knock-on effects on the consumer sector. Real GDP growth is thus forecast to slow from 3.4% in 2006 to 2.5% in 2007. Growth will pick up to 2.8% in 2008, but will not be as consumer-led as in recent years. Imbalances in the economy could trigger a much less benign scenario. The US dollar will come under further downward pressure in 2007 from the prospect of lower rates. The current-account deficit will average 5.6% of GDP in 2007-08.

China:
The main priority for the ruling Chinese Communist Party over the next two years will be to maintain political stability in order to ensure the success of its 17th party congress, due in late 2007, as well as the Olympic Games in the capital, Beijing, in August 2008. As the party congress approaches, the president, Hu Jintao, will continue to strengthen his influence through the appointment of allies to key positions. Real GDP growth will slow from an estimated 10.5% in 2006 to 9.5% in 2007 and 9% in 2008. The government will continue in its efforts to rebalance the economy, as it attempts to make growth less dependent on exports and investment, while introducing measures to boost consumption. The current-account surplus will narrow from an estimated 7.8% of GDP in 2006 to 6.3% of GDP in 2008.

The Red Signal: Rise of Communism

noreply@blogger.com (Rohan Samant) — Sun, 08 Apr 2007 15:35:00 +0000

Karl Marx introduced the “communist society” concept in the 19th century, where the means of production are jointly owned by the society, a society that aims at achieving equitable economic growth.

The communist society is a great concept. And that is what it should remain – a concept!

Every communist society has ultimately failed its objective. The Soviet Union failed and China today is more capitalist than the capitalists. But that does not mean we have seen the last of Communism.

Communist ideals are impressive enough to influence any person into total submission. It sounds real and its arguments sound rational. Communism has a tendency to spread rapidly because of its populist agenda. But a society having income disparities is more vulnerable to Communism. And communism feeds on income inequalities. Income disparity today is a global phenomenon. It is one of the main issues which the Democrats have taken up for the presidential elections in the United States. Corporate bosses in the US are getting fat pay packages and this has caught the eye of the media and especially the shareholders and the working middle class. In India income disparity was always present but today the rural-urban divide has increased further. The only silver lining about India is that income inequalities in the urban population have reduced and urban population as a whole has prospered thanks to globalization. But the ‘trickle down’ effect hasn’t yet fructified. China hasn’t changed much from the time of the communist revolution, in terms of income disparity. Before the revolution power and money was in the hands of the monarchy, today it is in the hands of members of the communist party. In China a rural worker who has migrated to urban areas for work does not get the same rights as the urban worker. While the urban worker gets social benefits (School, healthcare) a rural migrant has to work for lower salaries. There is a lot of unrest within China which it has been trying to suppress. Only time will tell how well they are able to manage it.

Today communism is seen with disrespect. So even the proponents of communism wont call themselves communists! Disguised communism is what I am talking about, like the one sweeping across Europe today. Take for example the French presidential candidate Segolene Royal, she is not only the first female candidate in the French presidential race she is also a die hard communist. The Labour Party in the UK was always a communist party in disguise. In India we have the UPA with communist allies. So communism isn’t dead yet.

Communism sounds great in theory but it will always be a red signal for economic rationality.

Important Global Indicators

noreply@blogger.com (Rohan Samant) — Tue, 27 Mar 2007 13:17:00 +0000

Click on the pic.
This data has been taken from 'The Economist' magazine website:
http://www.economist.com/markets/indicators/

My analysis of the Data:
US has the biggest Current Account deficit of 856 Billion USD which is 5.9% of GDP. There has been a consensus among economists that for any country deficit of more than 5% of GDP is bad. India has a relatively better current account position and if we remove the crude impact from it, we are better placed today than a decade ago.

If we see budget deficits, Japan (-4.9% of GDP) seems to be in pretty bad shape. Thanks to its budget deficit, Japan could face higher inflation. To curb higher inflation Bank of Japan will raise rates further which would ultimately stop the “Yen carry trade” which has been inflating global asset prices in preceding 3 years. So, asset prices could cool down going forward.

Another important observation can be made in the interest rates column. Generally inverted yield curve indicates a possible slowdown/recession in the economy. Inverted yield curve means short term yield (3-month) is higher than long term yields (10-year bonds above). US, Britain, Russia, Australia, Pakistan, Brazil, Egypt and South Africa are having inverted yield curves indicating that these countries could face a slowdown/recession.

Currency Farce

noreply@blogger.com (Jatin) — Mon, 26 Mar 2007 06:49:00 +0000

There are as many currencies floating in the world as there are countries. Why do we need so many currencies. Why is there a big market to trade in currencies? What are currencies? All these are questions that may spring up to any intelligent being who is trying to understand why a piece of paper with green ink and white house on it has more value than the locally printed paper given to him by his government.

It has been going on since the world became colonised and currency was introduced in economy. In olden times people would trade in equal valued services and products. For e.g. rice produced by farmer is of less value to him than to a cobbler who makes shoes and cares less for shoes. Farmer thus has an economical need to trade his belonging in equal value with cobbler. Cobbler rates a pair of shoes to 10 lbs of rice. farmer equally values it and hence the trade happens. This is fair trade. However in current world scenario we dont do this. We trade paper which has denominated value. Also this paper has various denominated values against another paper. And some people trade in just paper. Creating a "False Value".

I strongly suggest that we have single trading unit. No currencies. Central trade organisation like WTO based on current assets, services, GDP creates something like Global Trade Unit (GTU). The main problem arises is how do we treat PPP (Purchasing Power Parity). For e.g. INR is very strong in PPP as compared to many currencies however GDP of India is low. If we arrive at a central currency we will see inflation sky rocketing in some parts of the world with now excellent PPP but low GDP. Per capita incomes will be distorted as well. The concept is as wild as saying 1 Dollar = 1 Rupee. No not really. This is not how a Global Trade Unit (GTU) will work. GTU is index linked to assets. We can have it region based, country based, intercountry based, intra country based. Depending on the current market value the GTU reserves would be deposited with the country. Countries have to manage GTU. There is no way of having "False Value" (FV) or Notional Value (NV). Trade is thus asset linked more and less paper oriented.

Now many countries have Dollar Reserves. International trade is dollar based. If US wants services or imports its more than willing to print a few more dollars and sell it to any willing economy lacking them. How legal is this? You got True Value in return of False Value. Earlier currencies were linked to gold reserves internatinally. But with the concept of "Global Village" emerging it could no longer be sustained and the this mandate was revoked. Now countries can print their currencies as they please based on their own economic agenda. Zimbabwe is best example or crisis in argentina when the Argentinian dollar pegged to USD was released. The country went into an economic tumble. The countries that control media and have a global image will always remain strong as they are able to project higher value for their currency than other countries.

Yes the balances will tilt only when all countries have sufficient dollars and they realise that they are sitting on paper piles all this while. Where do we take all this trillions of paper bills floating around burn them? or fill our graves?

Scarcest resource? - Land!

noreply@blogger.com (Rohan Samant) — Sun, 25 Mar 2007 12:08:00 +0000

Land - Wars were fought for it, lives were lost for it. It was a scarce resource then, it is a scarce resource today.

By “Land” I don’t mean just any piece of land. Land that can give you a return is a resource and this is the Land I am talking about.

I am talking about agricultural land. Today globalisation has changed the perception of countries to agriculture. It is considered to be a weakness in your bargaining power for manufactured goods and services. And that is the precise reason why countries like India and China are shifting their economic model from being an agricultural economy to service and manufacturing economy. But my feeling is we are headed in the wrong direction.

Agricultural land in these economies is fast reducing for reasons which explicitly apply to these countries.
Let’s first take India. India has been losing agricultural land due to urbanisation. This is natural in any country that is growing. But other than urbanisation the other main reason is rise in the land prices. Land prices in India, agricultural or not, have risen substantially in the last 3 years. What is the problem if land prices go up? Well! The issue is when land prices go up it is much more remunerative for a farmer to sell his land and live a lavish lifestyle rather than working in the scorching sun for hours and in return get non-remunerative prices for his produce. This is what is happening in areas around growing cities like Gurgaon, Noida and Pune. Another major reason for loss of agricultural land is the growing prosperity of the Indian middle class. Today’s rich Indian middle class has started acquiring land in villages. This land is typically kept vacant or is being used for constructing a “Farm house”. Agricultural land is being used for non-agricultural reasons. So it shouldn’t be a surprise that agriculture in India is growing at a mere 2%. To add to the problem state governments like that of West Bengal have been acquiring land from farmers who are unwilling to sell, to set-up industry. Farmers in Bengal are unwilling to sell because land there is cheap. Thus price of land has a big impact on area under agriculture.

China too faces the urbanisation issue. But this problem could aggravate. In communist China, land is owned by the state. But in March 2007 a bill was introduced which (if passed) would give legal protection to individuals for their property (In other words private property). This would have a big impact on area under agriculture. Why? China has been a communist country since the 60’s and for decades not a single person has got any property rights. Therefore there is a huge pent-up demand that would suddenly be freed from constraints. Land prices will shoot up. Chinese middle class will start constructing “Farm houses”. A story similar to India will be repeated.

Then there are other issues like global warming which reduce the productivity of land. But before dealing with global warming which would require global corroboration, it would be advisable to deal with local land issues by introducing land reforms.

Wise men like Jim Rogers have already betted big on Agro-commodities and I concur to their thought process. Agro-commodity prices have risen substantially in the last 3 years and I don’t see any reason why they wouldn’t go up further. Going forward food security is a matter of concern, especially for India and China and dealing with it would be the most prudent thing to do.

Wonder Blunder

noreply@blogger.com (Jatin) — Wed, 21 Mar 2007 06:46:00 +0000

India lacks innovation. Does this come as a rude shock to you. You must have read numerous articles about how proud you should be as an Indian as India has a very rich history of innovation. The number system was developed in India, Astronomical treatise like Surya Siddhanta was comprised in India, great thinkers, academicians, philosophers, mathematicians were part of acient India. World renowned universities belonged in India. All this 'WAS' and not 'IS' is the sad part.

Looking back over the past century we see India going through a lot of change. We were born from a century and half of slavery in colonial India. Our young nation was now handed the strings of managing its own affairs. Our leaders belonging to the colonial era had developed strong social values which they put ahead of everything else, monetary gains were frowned upon as if being evil. Gandhisim dominated. India was land of poor and we needed to elivate the poor, that was the prime goal. Public Sector Industry was encouraged. Infact it was the norm of the day that government should run industry to ensure that all is fair in new India.

With such positive values where do you think we went wrong. After more than 50 years of independance we still are faced with 70% poverty (or even more), 40% illetracy and many other social evils with population being the biggest. We still need time is the general argument, but are we moving ahead in the right direction. Yes comes the prompt answer, we now have good metropolitan cities, more jobs, a greater and stronger middle class, a powerful army, more than half a billion population under the age of 25, IT out-sourcing industry and positive world opinion. We have to achieve a lot but we will, give us time.

Yes true, we have the potential to be everything a super power needs to be, but we have our own set of challenges. Education and Infrastructure are the crucial pillars of modern society and currently India lacks both. Indian universities have the capability to provide all this, but we do lose most of our great minds to west for it is but human to strive for a better standard of living. India till now focused more on the poor of the country and now suddenly the focus has shifted to the middle and upper classes. We need to give back something to the tax payers after all. Now every year we get to see a good representation for the middle class in the country's budget where it was mostly ignored for the past 50 years or so.

India needs innovation and not immitation. This decade has seen a lot of multinational giants like pfizer, IBM, Intel trying to open R&D shops in India. They say India has the brain we need to tap it. I believe Indian strategy should be encourage more of research oriented outsourcing to the general outsourcing. This will attract all the intelligent minds back to the sub-continent. And great minds is what shapes the society. India needs young dynamic leaders who have a vision for future. Yes we need a CEO for our country, who sees the country as a big organization and plans and acts accordingly. We should organize ourselves as a industry and market and project our glabal image accordingly.

We have seen some development happening in this area as well, we now have a minority of young Indians prefering to stay back in India and work in diverse fields like education, agriculture, horticulture, microfinancing, NGOs and defence. The Indian mindset will need to change, now the youth are given a strict guideline from their parents. Indian parents and students alike believe that the way to individual glory is IIT-IIM-MNC. Social sciences and other relevant facts are mastered only to achieve this goal. We need people to think not be mechanical. Inspiration is the mother of Innovation. Inspire others to aspire, and we will not be feeding on second morsels.

lndia a low-salary, low-cost markets...till what date??

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 20 Mar 2007 14:27:00 +0000

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Euro_techies_turn_to_India_for_work_experience/articleshow/1782150.cms

If you look at the above article, it says that India is a major outsourcing destination; Indian market is good for investment. Therefore, it is true that India has good talent indeed! This kind of an article is more common these days.
It is almost a decade or even more that we are running in the global race, but to date we are promoted as low-salary, low-cost markets. This has been like a tag line for a while now. I do not have any problem with low cost markets, they do get us some good business…my concern is low salary. This tag line clearly indicates that we are good at things but are not paid equally well. Will this tag line ever change?
You may answer that … This whole process of transforming India into a global economy is gaining momentum and will need its time to be a global giant...I agree to all of that.
However, we do lack something don’t we?
My question is that what do we lack to be the best paid economy in the world? Comment plz..

How serious is the sub-prime mortgage problem?

noreply@blogger.com (Rohan Samant) — Mon, 19 Mar 2007 09:02:00 +0000

Almost every think tank in the US is confident that the ‘sub-prime lending’ issue will not have any negative repercussions on the financial sector and the economy as a whole. Former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan is the only person who thinks there is something more than meets the eye. And this time I would tend to agree with Mr. Greenspan.

The first signs of the problem were sighted when HSBC declared in February that it was holding bad debts amounting to 10.6 Billion $ and that it was expecting further losses in the current year. This news was taken very lightly. Then other sub-prime lenders like New Century came forward with their version of the bad news. Suddenly the sub-prime story caught everyone’s eye. But as time has passed the fears about sub-prime lending have been subdued.

Sub-prime lending amounts to 20% of the mortgage market in the US. The sub-prime lenders are only intermediaries i.e. they borrow from banks and other financial institutions and lend to sub-prime borrowers at high interest rates. Majority of these lending’s have been securitized and sold to investors. To protect the investors the lenders have opted for credit default insurance as well as got their feet into the credit derivatives market.

Majority of the analysts are looking at the lender in isolation, when in reality he has his hands tied. So this fiasco is not restricted to the sub-prime lender but to whole host of other individuals and corporates. And the ripple effects of this issue will be seen in future consumer confidence numbers.

India budget focuses on farming

noreply@blogger.com (Jatin) — Wed, 07 Mar 2007 05:35:00 +0000

India's government has unveiled its annual budget, saying agriculture "must top the agenda of policy-makers".

The finance minister said unless India could be self-sufficient in food, this could upset "macro-economic growth stability and growth prospects".

The governing Congress party also said high growth would be critical as a way to fight widespread poverty.

However, the government said that economic growth, at 8.6% in the third quarter, had also pushed inflation up.

Inflation

Analysts greeted the government's 6.81 trillion rupee (£78bn; $153bn) budget positively.

"The good part is that the budget is not anti-inflationary," said Rashesh Shah, chief executive of Edelweiss Capital.

However, Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram said the government still had concerns over inflation.

While India had already taken "a number of measures on the fiscal, monetary and supply sides to maintain price stability", it would take more measures if needed.

Broadly, it is a growth-oriented budget, with focus on agriculture and education
A. Balasubramaniam, Birla Sun Life Asset Management

There had been fears that anti-inflation measures could limit growth in Asia's fourth-largest economy.

Figures for February revealed that wholesale price inflation had reached nearly 7%, following higher food and consumer goods prices.

Equity and growth

In a bid to boost India's agriculture - which grew by 2.3% on average in the last three years, against a target of 4% - the government said that it would offer cheaper credit to more farmers.

Some two thirds of Indians make a living from agriculture.

Mr Chidambaram said five million farmers would be "brought into the banking system" in the present fiscal year and the rural job guarantee scheme would be expanded.

According to analysts, a lack of adequate, affordable credit has prompted a wave of suicides amongst farmers across rural India.

Mr Chidambaram said: "Revenues were buoyant for the third year in succession. I have put the revenues to good use to promote inclusive growth, equity and social justice."

'Business momentum'

A Balasubramaniam, chief investment officer at Birla Sun Life Asset Management in Mumbai, said: "From the corporate angle, reduction in excise duties in relevant sectors are positive."

We must remember the finance minister has not derailed business momentum
Stockbroker Sushil Choksey

But the increase in excise duty on cement was "a punishment for the sector", he said. The budget also included higher taxes for telecoms firms.

India's main stock market fell 4% after the budget was unveiled amid concerns about plans for higher taxes on dividends and the removal of tax exemptions from technology firms.

Stockbroker Sushil Choksey said: "The fall is a knee-jerk reaction of Indian markets, but we must remember the finance minister has not derailed business momentum."

"This is a short-term view taken by investors and I expect this fall to taper off in a day or two."

Overheat

Mr Balasubramaniam said the budget was broadly "growth-oriented", with focus on agriculture and education.

Finance Minister Mr Chidambaram said spending on education would be increased by 34.2% in the coming fiscal year, while health and family welfare spending would rise by 21.9%.

Other aspects of the budget included increasing defence spending by some 7.8% to March 2008, as India strives to update its military capabilities.

Mr Chidambaram said the defence budget had risen to 960 billion rupees ($21.8 billion) from 890 billion a year before.

Other figures released on Wednesday showed the manufacturing sector at a rate of 10.7% in the quarter, although farming expanded by a lower-than-expected 1.5% because of crop shortages.

Analysts have raised concerns that India's economy could overheat, with growth running at about 9%.
Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/business/6403139.stm

Published: 2007/02/28 10:17:48 GMT

© BBC MMVII

Israel, Iran top 'negative list'

noreply@blogger.com (Jatin) — Tue, 06 Mar 2007 08:31:00 +0000

By Nick Childs
BBC world affairs correspondent

A majority of people believe that Israel and Iran have a mainly negative influence in the world, a poll for the BBC World Service suggests.

It shows that the two countries are closely followed by the United States and North Korea.

The poll asked 28,000 people in 27 countries to rate a dozen countries plus the EU in terms of whether they have a positive or negative influence.

Canada, Japan and the EU are viewed most positively in the survey.

'Traditional divides'

In January, the BBC World Service revealed polling results that suggested most people think the US has a mainly negative influence in the world - and that the numbers had increased significantly in the last couple of years.

This latest GlobeScan survey, mostly of the same people, confirms those findings.

But it also suggests that two countries are viewed even more negatively - first Israel, and then Iran.

North Korea is just behind the US.

BBC WORLD SERVICE POLL

Most negative image:

1. Israel - 56%

2. Iran - 56%

3. US - 51%

4. North Korea - 48%

Israel, of course, has long provoked sharp international reactions, and last year was involved in a controversial war in Lebanon.

Iran and North Korea have both been at the centre of international disputes over their nuclear programmes.

Canada, Japan, and the EU are viewed most positively, perhaps because they have all taken less high-profile roles in the world's recent confrontations.

India is one country in the survey that seems to have improved its standing in the last year.

In general, opinion seems to divide along the traditional fault lines of international politics.

Israel is viewed most negatively in the Muslim countries of the Middle East, although also in Europe.

Iran is viewed most positively in the Muslim world.

Japan is generally viewed positively, except in China and South Korea.

The EU similarly gets good marks, except most notably in Turkey, and also in parts of the Middle East.
Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/middle_east/6421597.stm

Published: 2007/03/06 01:41:35 GMT

© BBC MMVII

Economics Unbound - BusinessWeek Online

noreply@blogger.com (Jatin) — Mon, 05 Mar 2007 08:11:00 +0000

Economics Unbound - BusinessWeek Online

The first post

noreply@blogger.com (Jatin) — Sun, 04 Mar 2007 11:46:00 +0000

Good Morning, Good Afternoon, Good Evening, Good Night..considering the time zone in which you are reading this blog. Well this is my first post and my first attempt at writing a blog. I am certain that ill improve over time but i am sure i am doing quiet fine to begin with.

This first post wont be dealing with anything in particular, just a first post. The first post also demands to be the introductory post to the future posts that will follow. Its certainly not the parent but nonetheless should tell something about its next generations. Its certainly not the last post and so doesnt provide conclusions of any kind but also doesnt provide the begining to any future posts. Wondering what the first post is all about?

First posts are always like this, i am sure, unstructured, adhoc, unplanned, nervous, confused and sometimes boastful and ambitious. They have a unique quality of uniqueness and no two first posts will ever be the same. Some authors certainly begin with their introductions and what will follow in their respective blogs but thats not the intention of the first post. First post always wants to tell a story of its own but is always used as an instrument by the author to tell his/her own.
All the other posts would have the merit for comment but the first post is mostly ignored. It is raw and nascent, its like an infant that has just shit in its pants and no one wants to pick it up though everyone adores it from afar.

Now i have caressed enough the ego of my first post and i wouldnt want to linger there any longer. My grammar always begins with active and ends in passive and may complicate reading so i am cautioning my readers. But its very simple to understand, read straight and dont think.

- Jatin