SECOND FOUNDATION

Options

2011-01-10T23:29:00.001Z

Shall I,
Shan’t I,
Change my ways?
Shall I try,
To earn your praise?
There’s little time,
And much to do.
I’m fucking broken,
So are you.
Will you,
Won’t you,
Be my love?
Make me whole,
Like God above.
Would I,
Could I,
Touch the stars?
Soar above,
The poles of Mars;
Reach into,
The mind of God;
Walk the path,
The best have trod.
Should I,
Would I,
Could I?

Unrequited Love

2010-06-09T04:49:00.003Z

My unrequited walk with you,
Is as it has to be,
Right now at least 'cause you are there,
Not laying here with me.

The beauty that I see in you,
Is woven in my mind,
Of colours of a myriad hue,
Whose textures drive me blind.

So dance away my little love,
Stay further off from me,
You're safer there my gentle dove,
Than where I'd have you be.

The Iraq elections: day nine – Baghdad

2010-03-08T22:18:00.001Z

There is a strong probability that an alliance will be formed to create a government of National Unity in Iraq. However in order to do so it may mean sacrificing Malaki as premier. Dawah does not want to make that sacrifice. Were it to do so Dawah could lead a government of national unity that might also bring Alawi on board.

Monday 8th March 2010

The day after the elections and our last day in Iraq. We tried to assess probable alliances as we met over breakfast. I wrote in my notebook:

• The Sadderists can't easily ally with Malaki
• ISCI want to keep its alliance with the Sadderists
• An ISCI - Allawi alliance is unlikely
• The ISCI - Kurd alliance will remain
• An Allawi - Malaki alliance is unlikely
• A Malaki - Tawafuk alliance is almost inevitable (Ayad Samarai is friendly with Malaki and Tariq Hashemi is out of Tawafuk)

I also wrote that an ISCI - Malaki alliance was only likely if ISCI had a poor showing. And they did, didn't they?

We had some meetings to tidy up various issues, amongst which was a meeting to investigate the kidnapping of Ammar Al-Saffar, the onetime health minister.

Ahmed Chalabi

And finally we had one last major meeting. This was with Ahmed Chalabi, the Sunni politician that was allied with the INA (ISCI and the Sadderists). We met him in a huge ancient meeting hall in a big old palace in downtown Baghdad that was his family home. Our first question was about the Equality and Justice Law that he had promoted, the law that outlawed Baathist participation in the election.

"This is democracy in action," he replied. "The Accountability and Justice Law did a great deal to stop this latent effort to restore the Baath. It was a lonely effort to start with. We achieved a great deal to begin with the judgement in the court of causation establishing:

1. That a committee in its current form was legitimate
2. That anyone who praises the Baath rules themselves out of the elections

"We work according to strict standards. We have built a database of several hundred thousand names. We are not conducting a witch hunt. Initially we didn't publish the reasons why people were disbarred. But now we have decided to publish those reasons. There are 440 names on our list. A typical example is the Al Iraqia candidate who was a beneficiary of the petrol coupons that Saddam used to distribute. Another example is a man who used to work as an informer for the moukaberat (intelligence).”

Ali Faisal Laami

We were joined by Ali Faisal Laami, the Executive Director of the de-Baathification Committee. After cursory introductions he threw himself straight into the conversation. "If you have someone who was in the Baath party and who wants to be in government and has not committed a crime, that person has the possibility of appealing and that appeal will be considered and has to be approved by parliament.

"Many who worked on the de-Baathification laws thought they had achieved something with the Justice and Accountability law."

Ahmed Chalabi

"The original de-Baathification law said all members of the original Baath Defence Forces were to be treated as Baathists. Ayatollah Sestani said no. So they drafted the law as it is now."

Ali Faisal Laami

Ali could see we were not convinced of the value of de-Baathification. We said as much. He broke in. "We still have a long future. There are mass graves that have still not been dug up. It's premature to talk about an end to the de-Baathification process. This is not South Africa. The general political atmosphere is not supportive of a truth and reconciliation process. The victims issue is more paramount."

Ahmed Chalabi

"This law was introduced on February 14th 2008. They all had immunity in parliament. But when they became candidates they lost that. For instance we received a complaint that Saleh Al Mutlaq stood up in parliament and said, 'I was a member of the Baath party . . . ' and we had no authority to do anything about it because of his parliamentary immunity. The Court of Causation confirmed this was the position.

"These Baathists are secularists. This is not an anti-Sunni thing. There are more Shiites in the Baath Party than Sunnis."

Tamara Chalabi

At this point Ahmed Chalabi's daughter joined us. She's an academic in the States as well as being a novelist. One of her better known books is titled ‘Late for Tea at the Deer Palace'.
Her views were forthright. “The aim of the new commission is to scourge Iraqi society of the Baath party," she said.

Now, we are beginning to get results from the elections. The INA is ahead in most of the South and in Bagdad whilst Malaki is ahead in Basrah and Karballah. Alawi is ahead in Tikrit and Ninevah.

Ali Faisal Laami

We asked about possible alliances.
Ali answered, "There is an open door between Malaki's alliance and the INA. Malaki's authority will be diluted if he is no longer PM. It's entirely possible there will be a merger between INA and Malaki's alliance. If that happens we will form the government.”

Ahmed Chalabi

“There are reasons why there could even be an alliance between Alawi and the INA. Alawi's not so strong by himself. It would be difficult for us to accept Osama Najafi. The INA could have an alliance with Alawi without Osama just as we could have an alliance with the Dawa Party without Malaki.

"But neither the Saddarists nor ourselves have any red lines at the end of the day. We need to have a successful government. We need to fight corruption, build homes, and deal with the issues that surround Chapter 7 (Chapter 7 of the United Nations Charter allows the UN Security Council to take either military or non-military action 'to restore international peace and security')."

Ali Faisal Laami

"The problem is that this process takes time because the alliances may disintegrate as quickly as they are formed. The hardest alliance to form would be between the Kurds and Alawi.”

Ahmed Chalabi

"The Kurds will block any deal that includes Najafi. There are really three main issues that are urgent here in Iraq:

1. Housing

2. Employment

3. Iraq's funding and its international standing

"There is a great deal of pressure to form a government quickly. Last time if the USA hadn't vetoed Jafferi, we'd have had a government four months earlier. All we need now is a competent government.”

Ali Faisal Laami

"There is a lot of oil and we have to resolve to issues surrounding that oil wealth. We also have to resolve our role in the world. Iraq should be a bridge between India and Europe, between the West and the East."

Ahmed Chalabi

"We are worried about the probity of this election. We are worried about the software to tabulate the vote and calculate the results. We asked for a copy of the programme they were using and they have refused. We don't understand why the UN refused. Frankly I thought they had an interest in maintaining a Malaki government. But there had been lots of problems. In 85% of the constituencies the results were not pasted up at the polling stations as is required under the electoral law."

In Conclusion

The many tensions and divisions in Iraq have not been healed by the outcome of the current round of elections for the national parliament. It will therefore take some time for the new government to emerge. At best we can expect a new Iraq administration to be in place in September 2010.

It could even take until October.

The Iraq elections: day eight – Baghdad

2010-03-07T21:49:00.001Z

The prime electoral concern of Iraqi voters is the fact that so many of their number have not been registered to vote. Officials blame the population for this, saying the people did not follow proper procedures. This may or may not be the case, but Iraq has such huge numbers of refugees who are displaced from their homes that it is difficult for them to vote. It is also difficult for members of the military to vote but they were deliberately left off the electoral role in what may have been an attempt to undermine Malaki for whom many of the soldiers might otherwise have voted.

Sunday 7th March 2010

It is Election Day in Iraq. And it is remarkable. We wake to the sound of mortars. Like thunder they come, one on one on one. From about 7 am through midmorning the explosions were every few minutes. Sometimes even more frequent, coming in a burst like confetti. We delayed our departure to the polling stations and kicked our heels outside the hotel. Our security was having trouble getting across town to collect us. Eventually we are able to leave and hit the polling stations.

The Polling Stations

Our first visit is to Salhaya polling station, close by the hotel. The place is crammed. Jam packed with media. It is one of the polling stations closest to the Green Zone and therefore better protected. There are actually six polling stations in this one polling centre. We get there at 10:30 am and so far, despite the constant rumble and thump of the bombings, 742 electors have voted out of 2,286 registered to vote here. I wander into station number one waving my election observer badge and inspect the hugely complex form. I ask the election officers how someone would vote if they wanted to vote, say, for Mithal Aloosi. They have no idea. There’s a form they say, on the wall. I ask about someone more famous, what if they wanted to vote for Hakim’s INA list I asked. They searched the immense form. Someone came over to help. Then they found it. They were on a role now. Allawi, I said, and they found him straight away. Malaki I said and the same. But basically you have to know the name of the person you want to vote for and his number and his list number. To be honest most voters know so it’s not a problem. But it’s easy to get confused. “There’s no intimidation here,” they say. Which I am sure is correct as it’s so close to the hotel with such security and so many happy international observers. There really is a lot of media. I even get interviewed by CNN. They’re picking on everyone.
And so it kicks off. We wander from polling station to polling station weaving our way across Baghdad. One of the more common complaints is from the soldiers. The first to grab me is Major Asi Abdulsader from Baghdad Intelligence. “Why am I not allowed to vote?” he asks. He was not registered for the military voting a couple of days back – like countless others – and to shut the soldiers up and avoid violence they said, “You can vote on polling day”. Which of course is not true. They’ve simply been left off the register. There are so many unregistered voters.
But all in all the voting is good and the elections encouraging. As we cross town, going from polling station to polling station we notice quite a party atmosphere. The bombings have begun to quiet and people are on the streets. No cars anywhere but us. Transport is banned which makes it a special holiday. We are pretty much the only international observers moving around. At least we don’t run into any others. Our man in Baghdad, Sabah Al Obeidi, has gone to great trouble to get us passes so that we can move around but he himself doesn’t join us. There are too many bombings in his home area and his family won’t let him leave the house.
We bump into a military convoy and soldiers are spread across the street chatting with some top brass. We jump out of our cars and join in. This is Major General Ahmed Saidi, Commander of the Sixth Division and responsible for security in Baghdad. He is very pleased to see us. “We have put all the polling stations in places where they are well protected,” he says. “The terrorists can’t reach them. Their last breath is this act,” he says, referring to the mortars, which are few and far between now, just the occasional sputter. “They are finished,” he says. And to be honest, I think he is right.
Dijla Polling Centre is our next port of call. It actually contains five polling stations. The turnout is modest here. 1,906 are registered to vote but Salam Zuhair, an officer at one of the stations tells us, “Only 100 have voted. The bombings have put people off.”
We head across to Al Gazar polling station. The manager, a man called Tafiah, says, “We’ve had 50 unregistered here. And 300 have voted out of an electorate of 2,556.” Which is about a typical ratio. Of every 350 people that turn up to vote 50 find their names are not on the register. A bit high wouldn’t you say. Something isn’t working right.
A bunch of soldiers confront us. One of them speaks for the others. His name is Feras Abbas Haider Taib. “They were told by IHEC they’d be able to vote today,” he says. The men are not angry but they are clearly aggrieved. One man insists we take down all his details. “I am Iyad Abdulwahab Fajar. My slip number is 71447208 and my ration card number is 00665705. My wife is registered but not me!” he says.
Station manager Ali Kreidy Ali Kreidy pulled me to one side. “Two or three per cent may not have had their names on the register. It’s like being a football referee. People from other provinces can go to another place to check the lists. Then they can vote.”
We went on to Shahaak polling centre, position one. This was a special polling station for unregistered voters. It seemed to be functioning OK.
We headed across to Madrasill Marjaiun in East Karada. They had 2,400 voters. “We’ve only rejected 20 because their names were wrong on the list,” they told us. In polling Station One 200 had voted out of 400 on the register. Somebody came up and complained. “It would be better if people with names not on the list were given an opportunity to vote here. There are some people wandering around all day trying to find where to vote.” At station two, 140 had voted out of 378. At station 3, 150 had voted out of 400.
Our next stop was in Kerada B. It was Shahid Arif Barah School. Station Manager Abdulmonem Adil told us there were 3,600 registered to vote here and 1,145 had voted by 12 noon. “There were many explosions. Some were afraid. After 12 noon more have been coming forward to vote than in the morning,” he said. “The explosions in the morning meant they didn’t come,” he repeated. “We expect to get a turn out of 3,000. Now we see the people coming more. So far we’ve had 50 not registered on the list.
Mohamed Abdulrazak at Station 2 said he thought that the names not being put on the list was deliberate. In that station 198 out of 395 registered had voted.
We drove over to Kerada 3 Ibn Al Khatib voting centre. Just under 40 are not on the list, we were told. In station One, 200 had voted out of 350. They had six stations in all. At station 2, about 150 had voted out of 362 who were eligible. A man named Ikhlas Hameed came up to us. “My children are not on the list. My brother is not on the list. It’s not deliberate, it’s incompetence.” One of the local election observers, Hussein Ibrahim, came over and said, “It’s difficult for us as observers. People get angry. Here out of 2,700 on the register some 1,400 have voted and 3% were rejected because they weren’t on the list.”
Eventually we made it back to the hotel – weary from our efforts. It was early evening and counting was now underway. We asked around to get some feedback. How was the voting going. “We don’t know,” people said. “Just that Malaki is very close to Allawi”.

In Conclusion

Though international observers were present in Iraq, they were not much in evidence on the ground. The people of Iraq are eager to see international election observers and they are almost universally welcomed. They feel it is an added safeguard for a democracy about which they are almost universally enthusiastic.

The Iraq elections: day seven – Baghdad

2010-03-06T21:29:00.001Z

Sayyed Ammar al-Hakim and his ISCI political organisation are keen to distance themselves from any direct association with the Islamic Republic of Iran. Whereas their close allies, the Sadrists strongly opposed the status of the forces agreement (SOFA) which allows the United States to conduct an orderly and gradual withdrawal from Iraq. Hakim supported the agreement. Indeed Hakim was instrumental in enabling the agreement to pass through Iraq’s parliament.

Saturday 6th March 2010 – Sayyed Ammar Al-Hakim

Sayyed Ammar al-Hakim is an Iraqi political leader who heads the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI). We are ushered into his heavily guarded and fortified bunker-like headquarters near the double bridge in Jadderiah, Baghdad. There, not for the first time, we meet Sayyed Ammar. He’s an impressive young man with a charming smile. He wears the black turban of a descendant of the prophet. He shares his thoughts with us over glasses of sweet tea.
“What is happening in Iraq is something new and gradually will have an impact on the whole region. We wish to see all success for this process and a new phase for the new Iraq. The relationships between the different political groups need to be fostered on a basis of confidence and trust. We are proud in ISCI that we managed to build relationships with all sides. We hope to see the next stage in Iraq’s politics create and keep the political balance in the region. Some countries who had reservations before are now more friendly towards Iraq. They are making offers to spend billions of dollars in investments, as well as in oil contracts which help Iraq produce billions of barrels a day.
“On the security level there is gradual improvement. After the withdrawal from foreign troops from the city we still see a good level of security. This is why elections are good. But I don’t want to hide the fact that we have some concerns with the procedures being adopted by IHEC (the Iraq Higher Election Committee). Many of the political blocks have concerns about these procedures. Some 840,000 names were added to the voting register recently. Seven million additional voting slips were printed which is about 35% of the register. I accept that a reserve is necessary in case of damage. Even printing 5% may be acceptable. But why print seven million additional voting slips?
“There are also problems with the private voting for the security sector which took place two days ago. Huge numbers of soldiers from various battalions and brigades were told to vote for specific candidates. Some were threatened, some were offered promotion. In some voting centers the military people were actually asked who they would vote for. If their response was acceptable the officials found their names on the register and allowed them to vote. If it was not, officials told them their names were not present.
“Additionally some 90,000 names from the FDS (a quasi civilian militia that is used as a protection force) were prevented from voting. They were told that they were not real soldiers. They will be on duty on Election Day but will not be able to vote with the rest of the population. The philosophy behind the idea of having a private vote is to give those who are occupied on Election Day the opportunity to vote, not vice versa.
“We noticed similar problems yesterday for voters who were voting outside the country. IHEC employees in voting centers overseas were backing specific lists. So they prevented expatriate voters from voting for other lists which led to a lot of quarrels. In three instances election centers were closed because of fighting. It makes us worry about IHEC’s independence.
“We saw violations during previous elections but those were local government elections and we thought we should be patient. Now these national elections are important for the future of the country. There is no way we can take it easy. If there is no way of dealing with this there will be tough measures. The National Alliance (the alliance between Hakim and the Sadrists) is a big block and this will not be overlooked.
“Doctor Iyad Allawi expressed similar concerns as did many of the smaller lists. In addition to all the efforts we are making ourselves, we want the help of our friends to monitor and judge this process. In some of the countries in the region, when elections took place in a non-transparent way it led to complications. Things in Iraq might be worse. That is why we are at an important cross roads”.
We asked Hakim about the popularity of his list, the Iraq National Alliance which had not done as well as anticipated in the local governorate elections.
“Our alliance made a big effort for these elections. We think we got a good response from the people. In the past month we have redoubled our efforts. Our list is now at the top. We think we have changed. We reviewed the performance of our party. We spent time looking at the problems we had. We made important adjustments to our political programme and to the structure and organization of our political party. The people had big expectations that the political parties would provide better services. In the provinces the people expected even more and they had the right to expect more. Especially as many of the new teams that took on the job of providing services after the elections did a poorer job than by the teams that they had replaced”.
We asked him about possible future alliances.
“We always have had good relations with all sides. We’ve been working with the Dawa party for decades. Doctor Iyad Allawi was our partner in the resistance under Saddam, and we have an historic alliance with the Kurds. Our present block is capable of reaching good relationships with all the others. The INA was formed with this in mind. Our new programme which was written after a huge effort was drafted to make it easier to build further alliances”.
He paused to give us a chance to sip some tea. He is a truly impressive young man with a round face and gentle eyes. With his black turban, he wears a grey flowing dishdasha and a brown jellabiah style cloak. He has long slender fingers. A gentle sing-song voice and a full but closely trimmed beard. He starts to talk again.
“We are against the principle of sharing on a sectarian basis but we believe strongly in partnership. Even if a list gained 50% of the votes it still wouldn’t be able to build up the country on its own. Democracy on a 50% plus 1 basis does not work in our multi-faceted Iraq. However we don’t want to see the dominant list bringing in a minister from another list merely because it needs their cooperation. That would take us back to the kind of game that was being played under Saddam. Actually we need representation from all the lists in a government of national unity”.
So would the INA alliance hold together once the election was out of the way we asked?
“We believe that one of the strengths of our own alliances is the capability we have to hold the various factions together. We looked carefully at the reasons that led to the break up of the last alliance we formed, which is why we spend such a long time on building a programme that could allow this electoral block to become a truly sustainable political group for the future. We formed committees for decision making. We created 13 important commissions to govern the affairs of the alliance. This means that each group will be in a position to choose whether they will have seats in parliament or important positions in the commissions that administer this new political block. In this way we should be able to give everybody a stake and maintain their interests”.
Was the INA still backing a particular candidate for Prime Minister we asked? We were aware that the Sadrists had a preferred candidate for Premier as did ISCI.
“The alliance is concentrating on the implementation of its programme, rather than on who will lead the team. But we’ve agreed on a mechanism to choose the Prime Minister for the next stage. The winners can sit together and discuss what happens. Many names might be presented but it will depend finally on the elections themselves”
We asked Sayyed Ammar about the relationship between Iraq and her neighbours.
He said, “The majority of the Arab countries are ruled by Sunni. They don’t feel happy to see Shia rule here in Iraq. They’ve used the perceived Shia threat to weaken the position of Iraq. This is what we sense. They say that whoever is Shia is under Iran’s influence. Similarly our political opponents accuse of us being under Iran’s influence in order to weaken us.
“As for Iran, personally I have no real experience in dealing with Iran’s establishment. When I go to Iran I usually have a relationship with the religious courts. But I feel from the meetings I’ve had there that they are more concerned that Iraq may turn to quarrels and war. We have had 25 wars. Even now there are figures emerging that want to ferment war between Iraq and Iran. If the Iranians have ambitions to encourage the Shia parties, it is to lessen the possibility of war.
“Which is why those who observe us notice our independence. The Sofa (Status of the Forces Agreement) was a red line for the Iranians and they tried to stop it. ISCI recognised it helped Iraq which is why we stood strongly for it. We have tens of issues. We talk publicly about a good relationship with Iran. The policy of destruction and war didn’t bring any benefits. We think Iraq has the capability to be close to the rest of the world. If the USA has a problem with Iran, it doesn’t mean that Iraq has to pay the price.
We asked about the Iranian backed idea that Iraq should form the fourth pillar in an alliance that included Iran, Syria and Turkey.
“You are putting the Iraqis in a dead end. Surrounding the Shia and doubting their Arab origin. Making them feel the threat of the era of the mass grave might lead them to a regional axis to survive. This might confuse balances in the world. But the right thing is to let the Iraqis, including the Shia, recognise their role. They need to feel they will not be forced into throw themselves into the lap of this or that faction. This will confuse those who wish to stop Iraq becoming an important regional state.
“Iraq can play that role – be a station where all can meet rather than a field for struggle. The example of history shows that no one nation is able to erase another. It’s not a worry to see Iran taking its role and being accorded its natural status in the region. I believe that dialogue can solve many problems. The severe international decisions, the blockade, only serves the Iranians and gives the support of the Iranian street to the government. And remember that even those people who are considered the opposition in Iran still support the right of Iran to acquire nuclear energy. Iran has been under external pressure for 30 years. Why don’t we try other ways and means”.

The Sadrists

Our next meeting was perhaps the most sensitive of all the meetings we were to have this trip. It took place in the Chinese restaurant behind the hotel and was with two candidates for parliament. One was Mohammed Derajy. A young man with a sharp political brain who had been educated in the UK. The other was Doctor Qusay Al-Suhail MP who is a member of the Sadrist Political Committee and whose name has been floated as the probable Sadrist candidate for Prime Minister should they have the largest block in parliament. The conversation bounced back and forth between them but they didn’t start to talk until they had made it clear that they had an absolute rule in the Sadrist leadership not to speak to the British or the Americans whilst Iraq remained occupied and that this meeting was a special exception granted because of our role as a foundation. The following is what they said:
“We Sadrists are a religious-social movement not a pure political movement. But we believe, because of our previous experience, that benefits can’t be gained unless we participate in the political process heavily. Our main aim is to liberate Iraq. Iraq is under occupation now. We try to resist in various different ways. When Iraq reached the brink of civil war the Sadrists were accused of having fermented that civil war. That is why Sayyed Muqtada forged the Mahdi Army to give everyone the chance to find the truth. Most of the battles were because of the misbehaviour of the USA in Iraq. Plus there was some argument with the government over the mismanagement of Iraqi political life. We have a political committee that deals with day-to-day matters which was given its authority by Sayyed Muqtada.
“With regard to the other point: the Sadrist movement is a social movement. We are not a political party as such. We have roots in all parties and foundations. Therefore you could get the Sadrist view from our formal framework, in other words from our political committee led by Muqtada al-Saddr.
“There are some that exaggerate and claim that there are wings and factions in our movement. But we have unity in the Sadrist movement. Therefore when Sayyed Muqtada met Sheikh Qais Al-Khazali (the Najaf based Sadrist whose followers are amongst Iraq’s most radical) he asked him:

To go back to his religious studies
To remain under the Sadrist umbrella
To leave politics

“There have been many attempts to create factions within the Sadrist party. They have not succeeded. Maliki made an agreement with Qais Al Kazali to free prisoners and move back into the political process. We had no relationship with this deal. We even took no part in the bargain to release detainees in US prisons.
“However we certainly have a problem with our prisoners in US prisons. Unfortunately the USA tried to use these poor people to put political pressure upon us. The US embassy asked us for a meeting. They begged for a one minute meeting and in return they would keep the Sadrists engaged in negotiations. This is not acceptable.
“Under United Nations Chapter Seven we were promised that the Americans would leave Iraq but they haven’t. We have no confidence in them. The US and the UK were not our enemies until they invaded our country. We ask compensation for the Iraqi people. We as Sadrists represent the majority with regard to the religious sector. We have an agenda which involves freedom which is why we changed our name for the political process into Al-Ahrar (the liberated).
“With regard to this election we are sure that the government will fiddle the result which is why we have arranged to have 21,634 political observers. One for every polling station. As we see it our main competitors are Bolani, Allawi, Maliki and Ayad Samarai. If the result that comes out conflicts with the result that our political observers indicate, we will not accept it. Every candidate is responsible for his own particular area. We expect to have more than 45 MPs. If the US wants Iraq to be safe they should not interfere.
“Iraqis have a long memory. They remember that Abu Naji (Iraqi nickname for the English) built Maud Bridge. They remember that in Nasariya the Dutch built Netherland Bridge 60 years ago. But the USA did not build us a hospital to be called the US hospital. They left us with nothing. We know what the US is like. I have my own experiences of the time when the US came in 2003. We remember how Bremmer handled the elections. We don’t want any electoral manipulation of that kind here today. We as Sadrists in the Iraqi alliance reject what happened yesterday in the special voting for the military. It was a joke. It was not an election. For instance the FPS (the facility protection service) should have been entitled to vote with the military but were not allowed to as 95% of the FPS are Sadrist voters. Similarly huge numbers of prisoners were left off the electoral role, many of whom were Sadrists. We tried to keep the police forces away from politics but it’s not easy. My nephew who is a policeman voted 5 times”.
We asked about relationships with neighbouring countries.
“We have good relationships with Iran, Saudi Arabia and Syria. But they do not give us financial support. As a political movement we have $6,000,000 to spend for the whole country. Whereas one of our small opponents Ayad Jamaladdin has $6,000,000 to spend on himself.
“If we get plenty of seats we will ask for the Premiership. We will ask for it this year”.

The Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC)
Our next meeting was in the Green Zone with the head of IHEC Faraj M Al-Haydari. It is always a nightmare to get across to the Green Zone because of the endless security. We complained to Faraj about a whole range of issues and he dealt with them one by one.
“You complain about the fact that local election observers were not able to submit complaint forms because the returning officers at the stations would not counter sign or stamp them. The issue of stamping complaint forms is not a problem. They can submit them directly to us. The issues they raise will be submitted to a committee and if the issues about which they complain are genuine, the results of the polling station concerned will be regarded as void.
“With regard to your complaint that a lot of people were unable to register, those people not on the list are provided with an envelope and a ballot slip. They need to write down their ration card number and their grandfather’s name. Checks are made and we compare these with the original then their votes are still counted.
“With regard to your concern about soldiers and policeman being left off the electoral roll. The register for these individuals is supposed to be sent to us 2/3 months in advance. Instead they arrived with us 2 days before the election. Some 250,000 names were left out. We made a special list for those. Additionally on Election Day many thousands went to the wrong polling stations and so didn’t find their names.
“As regards the FPS not being allowed to join the military for the voting: the FPS are not linked directly to the Ministry of Interior or the Ministry or Defence. They are a special case.
“We will have provisional results within a week. There are 63 completing blocks. Final results will take into account all the complaints that we have received. You should note that there are always more ballot papers than individual people. For instance if a polling station has 400 voters it will get 400 ballots for 400 people but there will also be 10% to allow for spoilt ballots or special cases such as where a vote becomes null and void because the candidate has become disqualified or some such reason. Any way we have 3,000,000 soldiers who want to be able to vote.
“Remember, we are in a transition period and a democracy has yet to be established. Let me be very frank. If one list wins and the rest of the parties oppose it, I am ready for a fight. I realise that no one will accept the validity of the result whatever the outcome of these elections”.

In Conclusion

The Sadrist organisation is fully committed to the political path and there is little prospect that they will return to an armed struggle. They have a strongly authoritarian organisation as do all the Shiite political movements and they are very pragmatic about the alliances they may form.

The Iraq elections: day six – Baghdad

2010-03-05T21:13:00.001Z

There is little chance that Sofa (the Status of the Forces agreement) will be renegotiated. Though some US generals have lobbied for an extension of the period for foreign troops to stay in Iraq (using fears of a confrontation over the Kirkuk issue to do so) there is little Iraqi support for such a strategy. Indeed some Iraqis feel that if anything the insurgency is strengthened by the continued presence of US troops and that their own Iraq armed forces are best suited to maintain order.

Friday 5th March 2010 – The Local Election Observers

We leave Kirkuk early. Our convoy is, as ever, impressive, and they actually block the entire road and stop all traffic when they need to fuel up for the journey. We are not sure that the disruption is fair, but at least we aren't driving people off the road the way Blackwater did when they had free run in Iraq. That company did more to strengthen the insurgency in the post liberation days than is credible, with the antisocial way they protected Western diplomats.
The journey takes maybe four-and-a-half hours. We had argued for a diversion to Diyala to visit our friend Abdullah Jaboori who'd just been elected on Allawi's list. But it was too dangerous they said, so we travelled direct. We dozed much of the way.
Food is rough in Baghdad's Mansour Media, the hotel we are billeted in. It's mostly cold. The place is half government owned. But out back there is a good Chinese restaurant in the garden and we head there to relax. No alcohol though. "Allawi," says the restaurant proprietor. "If Allawi wins we'll be able to sell alcohol again."

The Tammuz Organisation

That afternoon we meet some election observers. Jaafer's friends. The first to come by are from the Tammuz organisation which has a total of 860 volunteers. We sit and drink coffee with them as they regale us with their stories. They were talking of the "special" elections for the armed forces, yesterday.
"Some of the polling stations in some provinces were still open at 8pm. Nobody knew what they were doing. It caused huge confusion. Not just in the security centres, but also in the prisons and hospitals (which also voted early). Some of the polling stations picked up their closing times from the media channels. Some got direct calls from Qassam Aboud to say 'no extension'.
"There were about 950,000 voters on the day set aside for special voting for the military and others in reserved occupations (like the police) - of whom at least 150,000 were denied the right to vote, maybe a lot more.
"But there were lots of problems. Some prisons would not allow independent election observers to enter without a 'statement' from the Ministry of Justice. And prisoners entitled to vote were unable to do so because they couldn't produce their ration cards or their I.D. card. The list of prisoners entitled to vote came from the Department of Defence. But there was zero cooperation between the Defence Ministry and IHEC - which really did not help.
"So is this a case of systemic corruption, or is it merely a question of incompetence?"
We said there were rumors that Bolani, the Minister of the Interior (who was unpopular with the military) had held back police registration to improve his own chances. Bolani was himself heading a political list.
"The opposite happened in Tikrit during the military voting. There Bolani did well. In previous elections Tikrit always had a high turnout."
How widespread were the problems, we asked?
"If you discount the KRG (Kurdish Regional Government), there are problems everywhere. But they are variable depending on the competence of the polling station officers - and dependant on how well the military behaved."

The Ein Organisation

Another team comes to talk with us. This is Ein organisation with a total of 1,940 observers in the centre and the south. Their boss, Faris, speaks for them.
"This election is a qualitative step to put the wheel on the right track. Ein was founded after the collapse of the former regime, with international support. We observed the elections and submitted our observations to the IHEC. The main defect of these elections is that they had tribal directions. We question:

The role of the UN
The way election instructions were issued
The IHEC's inexperience

"There are foreign and international observers this time, which is good. The overseas vote of Iraqis resident abroad will have a huge impact on these elections. But overseas the IHEC granted votes to those not carrying Iraqi IDs if one of their parents were Iraqi. And the IHEC did not mention where they had to vote (for which province) which is serious if you are talking about a province with issues (Kirkuk) where Iraqis have not issued proper decrees since 1991. That’s so he or she would vote for Kirkuk.
"Another problem was that some names were left out. This despite UN confirmation on the necessity of updating the record. The UN are responsible for this mess.
"Then some of the IHEC procedures concerning conditional voting (the votes cast by people not registered) were precipitous and caused confusion. But this was a good election so far. We observed cooperation between local monitors and international observers like yourselves which was absent in previous elections. Though some of the international team did not get out and about and get involved in the actual process of the election which was unfortunate.
"I think the organising team at the UN has to put together a plan for international observers and plan their movement before the election. Obviously their movement has to be restricted in conflict areas. More visits by the UN at election time could affect matters positively."
Another Iraqi observer spoke up, Dr Ahmed Attar: "The most important thing from our point of view is that there is no systematic fraud. And many points were positive. The media campaigns have improved. There have been many changes. The fact that each candidate now has a right to get a record of the number who voted for him makes for more transparency - though we worry about the extent to which this will be implemented. And we worry about the voter record. We blame the UN for its response to updating the voter record. The UN responsibility for this mess is high. We blame the UN for its failure to support IHEC. If there are no lists people can double the vote. We are worried about the 500 mobile stations. We are worried about how things comply with the central voting record. It is possible there have been many violations, for example by Bolani (the Minister of the Interior).
"Another problem is that article 13:5 of the council's legal law grants empty seats to the winning list according to the number of votes the winning lists got."
This is the hugely controversial UN promoted procedure by which all parties who have less than the threshold number to win a parliamentary seat have their votes re-distributed to the major parties en-mass. It is clearly a disturbing manipulation of the democratic process by the UN and means that the major parties have huge solid blocks this time around and little parties are frozen out.
"In case the political entity did not get to the threshold of winning it would not be counted - and all the empty seats get allocated to the winning lists according to the number of votes the winning lists get. This is a UN suggestion. There has been a huge campaign to amend these articles but the big controlling political parties have refused. The winning list can win with 30% of the vote and the other seats are distributed to the winning lists according to a mathematical equation.
"Then it depends on the standard of supervision of the count by the UN to make the IHEC behave in a professional way. In the current election the pressure from the political entities is such that the results from each polling station are being pasted outside each polling station at the end of the day. Each political network can record the results for each polling station. This time we get to check results:

For each province
For each political entity
The number of votes for each candidate.”

Which we thought all in all was pretty encouraging.

Hadi Al Amari MP

We head out to meet former Badr Brigade Commander turned politician, Hadi Al Amari MP. Discussion with this dark-eyed bear of a man was animated and continued over supper. We discussed this week's bombings in Diyala, his constituency, a place we'd have visited had things been calmer. We asked our friend about his election campaign in Diyala.
“I thought I'd face a lot of problems. There are two hot provinces, Diyala and Ninevah. Diyala is a mixture from all Iraq, Kurds, Turkman, Sunnis, Secular and Islamist groups. The terrorist groups had their plans to announce an Islamic state. Still, we need people like you to witness what is going on. I had a campaign tour through 30 towns and villages. I only left Diyala three hours ago. My posters were all round the province – even in the hot areas. Many Sunni electors are backing me. I think unity between Iraqi people is getting stronger. The recent operations by those terrorists help create this sense of unity. The Sunni areas are calling for unity. I am optimistic. There are still difficulties of course. But I am glad to see the popular involvement in the election process. We're on the right track. If we've managed to make people aware of the election process, we've done some good. We need to strengthen the election process through the ballot box.
“The emphasis in the campaign is on choice – on the ability to choose. (a reference to the fact that electors can now vote for an individual candidate rather than being forced to vote for a list).
“We need to educate the people to demand their rights. People say, 'Everything we have is because of the President'. We say there is still not true democracy. In the West all citizens have their rights. I believe we'll have better participation in elections this time.
“In Diyala we have fourteen seats for parliament – one compensation seat (for a minority group) and thirteen others. The minorities took their share of the vote. In Iraq as a whole there are eight reserved seats for minorities like the Yezidi and the Shebak.
“But this will be different from previous elections. Firstly because of the high level of participation from expatriate Iraqis; and secondly because of the likely high turnout in the provinces.
“The Kurds were the ones that demanded these reserved seats for minorities. Otherwise we might have reduced the number of 'compensation seats'.”
So why the Diyala bombings,” we asked as we munched on the lavish spread our host had kindly laid on.
“They are people getting revenge. But their actions are counterproductive. Mostly it's Al Qaidah. Unfortunately those security operations that do take place are not put together on the right basis. One of the officers involved in counterinsurgency activities is himself an insurgent. We have advised the USA to look better at those they bring back to senior positions. I believe everyone would support them. Don't those in the West recognise that Al Qaidah developed as a reaction to Western policy?
“Al Qaidah believes that to have successful elections means an end to Al Qaidah. I don't want to say that the Saudis or others are behind this – but the bombers have their support. The priority is to dry up the sources of the fatwas that encourage such actions. The money we can deal with but the fatwas change that money into a fatal weapon. Unfortunately it's very clear which religious organisations speak in favor of violence all the time. The latest man to speak against Sistani is well known in Saudi Arabia. A few days ago I personally heard an interview in which a guy justified the Baathists.”
We asked him about the UN sponsored “compensatory seats” whereby all votes for parties that had failed to meet the threshold to elect an MP would be “re-distributed” to those parties with the biggest votes.
“Why compensate the winners rather than the others? In previous elections I gained 50,000 votes but a person like Mithal Aloosi only had 10,000 votes but still won a seat.
“Let us say that one list won ten seats. This list gained 408,000 votes. So that translates into each seat getting 40,000 votes. Then let's say another ten candidates each got 10,000 votes. None of them have enough to be elected, so their votes are added to the one that was elected, providing that list with additional seats.
“We should be fairer. How come one major block gets allocated an extra seat on 30,000 re-allocated votes it never won in the first place whilst another smaller block loses the same seat on 30,000 votes it actually had.
“As for ourselves, we are OK in so much as we have a bigger alliance, which makes it easier for us to win seats.
“But at another level, we don't have this or that place under our direct control. The government benefits. The government benefits from a lack of awareness of how the security services operate. In many respects they are just like the Baathists in the past. I don't want to claim there were no Shiite revenge attacks. There were. But that was in the past.”
We asked him about the “Accountability and Justice” committee that had outlawed the Baathist candidates.
“Iran interferes. You (the West) started this business. I personally made great efforts to change from Bremer’s deBaathification law to accountability and justice. The thing that prevented those candidates from standing was the election law. We require candidates to have a secondary education certificate and no criminal record. And a candidate under 30 won't be accepted. Nor will a military man who has not left the armed services for a minimum of six months. And then you have the accountability and justice law. That's our decision. We won't say we prevented them from standing but they are not qualified to be parliamentarians.
“Now this person will say the people chose me and you don't elect me. Well the law is saying he should not nominate himself if certain conditions are not met. We believe postponing the problem creates an even bigger problem. We didn't provide the opportunity for the accountability and justice process to operate in previous elections. In the previous elections, the Prime Minister actually exempted two members from debaathification – and Allawi thought that decision would hold throughout time.
“I have made a huge effort in the reconciliation process. I went to Ireland to see what they were doing there. I read Ghanim Jawad's paper on the subject. In South Africa they confessed to their crimes. We are ready – if they admit their failures – then it's fair. But the crimes they committed are the same as those of the Nazis. Believe me. Today, if they admit their mistakes, we open a new page. They still have the mentality of Sadaam, saying, 'We accepted troubles but troubles didn't accept us'
“No one can live with the Baathists because they don't want to live with you guys.”
We asked about relationships with the West.
“You are badly served by some of your representatives. I think Zelmai left us with bad memories. But then Crocker left us with good memories. He deserved a medal. Then Ambassador Hill started Zelmai's games. I said to him, 'please don't do this, go back to the way it was with Crocker.”
Were the Baathists really a lost cause we asked?
“One of Saleh Mutlaq's colleagues said, 'If you want to stop bloody Sunday, reconcile with Izzat Douri.
“I accept they target us but why target the Iraqi people? Women and children. Are the USA ready to open a new page with Bin Ladin? Don't be surprised by our attitude. We are dealing sensitively with Saddam's crimes. Like the Europeans with the holocaust. In one village seventy women and children were killed in one raid. I saw that with my own eyes.”
When should Western troops finally leave Iraq, we asked?
“The President is committed to Sofa (the status of the forces agreement). There have been some US generals who have made statements that the USA should stay a little longer but that would be an Iraqi decision. Iraqi forces are capable of maintaining security. The threats from terrorism remain whether the USA is here or not. I hope the agreement is implemented as called for. When the UK was in Iraq there were also troubles but they withdrew and now the security situation is better than it was before. Many insurgents use the occupation as a pretext for their attacks against us. The US forces have enough problems in Afghanistan and Pakistan. It will be Yemen next.
“And by the way, more than two years ago, I was sitting with General Swann, the Head of Operations, and I told him that though there might be a treatment for Afghanistan, but Pakistan was a big problem. And the same goes for when the Arab League ambassador was here – I warned him about Yemen. Al Qaidah has been taking advantage. There were problems in the north and the Huthi created a new problem. I worry they will take control of the Red Sea.”
If after the elections no block or group gains a majority, could you ally with Dawa, we asked?
“Anything might happen. We are not going to witness a 50% plus one list. The competition will be between the lists having between 50 and 90 seats. There should be cooperation from now. 'The well that you drink water from – don't cast a stone in it.' We need dialogue. Away from pride. The elections program was good in general.
“If Malaki wins a good block, we'd dialogue with him. Even were we to win a majority, we'd have no choice but to ally with Malaki. We can ally with the Kurds and not with Malaki. But I believe we should join together with Malaki relying on a program that we can sit down and agree. The campaigning has been legitimate and a genuine effort has been made to calm things down.”
What about the alliance with the Sadderists? Would it hold?
“I believe we made huge steps forward with the Sadderists. There were problems. I believe we've managed to contain such problems. We're both on one list. There is progress among the Sadderists themselves. Sayed Ammar (Ammar Al Hakim, the spiritual head of the Badr Movement) was talking about the fact that certain groups were not resistance, that there was no resistance in Iraq. Problems might happen between brothers. The important thing is that we have a mechanism to deal with problems if they occur. I want to assure you that we have the capability of dealing with our differences.
Would the INA list still stand for federalism?
“Federalism? A young man saw an old man and said, 'Why is your back bent?' The old man said to the young man, 'My son, this problem will come to you in due course at no price.'
“My brothers in Dawa, if they lose power the first thing they will call for is federalism. And if we are in central government we might give up the idea of federalism. Things are maturing naturally. When a child is born, you can't force him to grow. It happens naturally. Let me add one point about federalism. I still remember the late Sayyed Abdulaziz Al Hakim. Khalilzad told him, that the Kurds refuse to give up the idea of federalism and the Sunnis don't like it. The late Hakim said that we are not insisting on a certain political system. We want Iraq to be ruled by a federal system. But what matters most is that we want a strong Iraq whatever the system of government. Our brothers the Kurds have a right to look for a federal system. It is a type of government adopted by many countries.”

In Conclusion

There is considerable disquiet at the effect of the UN promoted system whereby the votes of parties with less than the requisite number of votes to return an MP are reallocated to winning lists to give them additional parliamentary representation.

The Iraq elections: day five – Kirkuk

2010-03-04T20:54:00.000Z

There were three options for Kirkuk: (a) the province to stay with Baghdad for administrative purpose; (b) the province to go to the Kurdish Regional Government; (c) the province to gain special autonomous status. Kirkuk’s oil resources are not impacted. Whatever option is followed (and it will be determined by referendum) Kirkuk oil remains with the central government. If the population were made aware of the consequences of the three options in a genuine public information campaign, they might choose autonomy.

Thursday 4th March 2010 – The Turkman Deputy Chief

A six a.m. start. We went up to Kirkuk with massive security, thirty Iraq Army in convoy front and back bracketing our two armoured cars. They weren’t taking any chances. With good reason perhaps. Kirkuk was tense and getting tenser. Turkoman against Arab and Kurd. Arab against Kurd and Turkoman. Kurd against Kurd, and everyone else as well. You have to be very careful. We have to break the habit of saying Turkoman. It’s not politically correct. As insulting as saying Mohamedan instead of Muslim. “Turkman” is OK though. We have yet to understand the reason but no doubt someone will explain.

We usually do Kirkuk with the Kurds, but this time we are with Malaki’s people – which will mean a change in both agenda and perspective. Our first meeting is with Mehdi Ali, Deputy Head of the Kirkuk Provincial Council. Mehdi greets us and holds forth. He is Turkman and very anti-Kurdish

“Kurdish migrants from the north are coming in to change our demography. Before 2003 we had to endure Arabisation. Post 2003 we have to endure Kurdisation. There’s a UN office here in Kirkuk. We’ve tried to contact them. The police have tried to contact them. It’s closed. The IHEC have increased the vote here in Kirkuk by 50,000 and half the names are missing from the Ministry of Defence register (for the police and military voting which takes place in advance). This is deliberate. For the names not on the register there is a separate ballot box. The Kurdish officers who have been voting today wiped their ink from their fingers (fingers are inked at the ballot box to indicate you have voted) and then placed additional ballots in the second ballot box. 90% of the officers have done this. 90% of the officials are Kurdish.

“There’s going to be huge fraud in Kirkuk. The way they’ve allocated the security forces is unusual,” said Mehdi who was Turkman. “In the North the police are the only ones protecting the polling stations because most of the population in the North is Kurdish. Here and in the South there’s the police plus the army. The Kurds won’t allow the north to be secured.

“The only solution is special status for the allocation of electoral seats. Turkman 32% Arab 32% Kurd 32% Christians 4% for ten years.”

Which would suit the Turkman, I couldn’t help but think, as they’re in the minority other than the Christians who don’t count.

The Turkman Council

As we leave for our next meeting Dr Ali, who is helping organise our visit, draws us to one side, his brow knotted in concern.

“We have reports. The military vote is going badly. Bolani, the Minister of the Interior, has failed to register most of the voters. The 9th Battalion in Rustomia has 5,000 names missing off its list. These soldiers would vote either for list 337 (dawa) or 316 (INA) or 333 (Allawi). Then 1,500 names in Baghdad Operations in the Green Zone are unlisted and they’d mostly vote Malaki. Same with Karballa Police Force: mostly pro-Malaki and mostly unlisted.”

We promised to check the issue out. We have every intention of putting together a tough electoral report. On past experience the UN will take note, as will the Iraq Electoral Commission. But nobody else will bat an eyelid.

Our next meeting is in an area called Taza where we are to meet representatives of the local council which is Arab-Turkman in this suburb of Kirkuk. But Arab–Turkman relations are so very bad that there is not a single Arab councillor present, whereas every Turkman you can imagine is crammed into this dark room, dark because of the inevitable powercuts that bedevil post liberation Iraq.

Talib Hadi Fateh, Head of the Local Council, greets us and holds forth.

“Taza is an old district formed in ’61 linked directly to the Kirkuk Provincial Council. We are on the Kirkuk / Baghdad road. Originally Turkman, there are now two main ethnicities here, Arab from the villages and Turkman from the town. There are five Arabs and nine Turkman on the local council. This is mainly an agricultural area. Throughout the electoral campaign and even now there are no problems in this area because the residents and the population are in line with each other.”

A curious claim given the total absence of any Arabs in the room.

“In Kirkuk as a province,” he went on, “There are a variety of political groups which gives rise to the fear there will be fraud. Historically Kirkuk was a Turkman city but there have been waves of Kurdish immigration since the fall of the regime.”

Nagid Azad Jumar was the next man to talk in this crowded room. “In 2003 the province had a population of 650,000. Now it’s double. Amongst the people that moved here some had links, but not that many of them. We support a census because at the moment everything is in the hands of the Kurds.

“When the Turkmans were sent away, they returned to their own homes. Whereas the Kurds take over schools, parks and gardens. Some of our land is taken by Kurds. I’d like to see Kirkuk with the Central Government rather than autonomous. Things are worse here post 2003 than they were under Saddam.”

There was more of the same. These were people with a grievance.

The Turkman NGO

We said our goodbyes and headed across town to a Turkman NGO called the Bashir Organisation for Cultural Development. We met in what seemed to be a small schoolroom down a muddy sideroad on what was fast becoming a dour, overcast day. Crowds of ragged children mobbed around us and were shooed away. This was an excruciatingly poor area.

Ahmed Khadir Sadr was the NGO boss. He was a gentle man, soft spoken. “There are 51 monitors from this organisation,” he said. There is no discrimination in this area. There is talk of people left off the voter registration.

“When it comes to a decision about the future of Kirkuk, we want to stay with the centre.

“When it comes to our agricultural land, a lot of it is still in the hands of people from the former regime. The commission set up to deal with land disputes has done almost nothing. Much of this land was taken by Saddam from Turkman to give to Arab residents.”

Which was as far as we got with Ahmed and his gentle Turkman NGO. The door swung open and in marched a frightening gang of thugs. Huge middle aged men, swarthy, in dark glasses, turbans at a rakish angle. Real mafia-like thugs. They beamed confident smiles and those in the room shrank back to make way for them as they sat down in front of us. They spoke expansively. They had something to say. These were Turkman farmers, but it felt like the Mid East equivalent of the wild west – and the gunslingers had just come to town.

Mehdi Taki Khalil was the first to talk. He didn’t even bother to remove his dark glasses. He waved a stick at us occasionally as he spoke, like some old-time Pasha – which perhaps he was. He certainly put the fear of God into his compatriots.

“This area was destroyed. Then rebuilt after 2003. 85,000 hectares belonged to us. Up ‘till now these Baathists did not return this land. Post 2003, 45 of our own people were killed by these Baathists.

“There’s no polling station here in Bashir. We have a 5,000 population of whom some 3,000 are voters. But they have to travel the seven kilometres to Taza to vote, and most of them have no transportation. There’s no help from anyone for the 35 or 40 families that live in this area.”

Yasser Ismail, another heavyset giant of a man with tassels swinging from his turban as he spoke. “We get little help or no help. No proper education at secondary level. None of us ever went to university. Under Prime Minister Jaaferi, a project was approved for 500 houses here. Nothing has happened. People just do not believe in anything anymore.”

It was time to move on. We thanked them and headed out through the mud and the children.

The Returning Officer

We were taken through town to the local electoral office where we had our ID copied and were checked to see we were who we said we were before being ushered through to meet Farhad Talabani, the returning officer for Kirkuk Province.

This was a man I’d met before. I liked him, though most of the others seemed suspicious of him. He explained the procedure. “The master lists for today’s military voting came form Baghdad on a CD. Some of the names were not on the CD. But those left off can vote on 7th March with their families. Only fifty or sixty names were left off. And the way things are set up nobody can vote twice.”

We asked about the problem the people of Bashir were having with no polling station in their community.

“The electorate there is 1,200 not 3,000. But yes, I have asked for a polling station in Bashir from the IHEC three or four times with no response.

“Today 34,524 are entitled to vote in Kirkuk – the police, the army, hospital staff, and 2,147 peshmergas.

“The election in Kirkuk is difficult. I hope to bring some balance to things. My staff are drawn from every creed and ethnic group. We have a master list compiled from the registered voters. They have to have a UN ration card. But anyone can change their ration card from another city to this city. Though it is not easy. You must have proof you are from Kirkuk, then we move the ration card. That means as well as having your existing ration card, you must have your father’s ID and your grandfather’s ID. Not easy.

“On national Election Day (7th March) 757,967 are entitled to vote at 299 polling stations. In 2005 some 680,000 were on the register.”

We thanked him and headed across town to PUK centre where we would meet Surood, the lady that helped us here in Kirkuk at election time.

The PUK Headquarters

We were at the headquarters of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, one of the major political parties operating in the region. We are here to meet Aziz Majeed, Deputy Leader of the PUK hereabouts.

“The electoral process here is tainted and disrupted by those who have an interest in disrupting it. We wait ‘till after the process to assess the level of that disruption. There are also big problems with regard to the translation of names. Kurdish names don’t translate directly into Arabic which causes problems in communication. And there are some 52,000 Kurdish names on the Kirkuk register. The list is in Arabic so a name like Xianico would be translated into Janico because there is no “X” in Arabic. This causes confusion.”

We asked about the new “Change” party that had emerged on the Kurdish political scene.

“The Change party is not a problem. It’s not negative, it’s positive.”

We asked about the absence of provincial elections in Kirkuk.

“It’s a big problem but these elections may give impetus to have provincial elections sooner. The extremists want the provincial elections held on a sectarian allocation of seats on a 32%, 32%, 32% + 4% basis.”

Was the PUK on the brink of disintegration, we asked.

“The PUK has problems because it is a democratic organisation. Here in Kirkuk fior these national elections we expect the PUK to get 4 seats and Goran (change party) one seat.

“There is an increase in the population. People have been coming back from exile. The Arabs living here want this area to be tied in with central government. The Kurds want it tied in with the Kurdish Regional Government. This must be sorted. Meanwhile, the big obstacle in the way of the political process is the terrorist.”

We were making ready to leave having finished our meeting when a message came through.

The military voting

Dr Ali said he’d heard of irregularities in the Kirkuk vote. Eshak polling station in Arafa district had closed its doors at 5 pm as expected but then reopened them at 6 pm to allow the Peshmerga to vote. We said we’d check it out. We did.

The place was in darkness and crammed with soldiers almost falling over each other. Utter chaos and noise. Hundreds of troops. The “stations” had light from little generators despite the power cut. We spoke to Walid Khalid, the Head of Station One. “We closed the polling station at 5 pm but that left a lot of the army inside because we had not had enough voting papers.”

But the political observers were angry. They crowded round us, hemming us in. The observer form “Change”, Abdullah Mohammed, said, “We closed the doors at 5 pm. Then they reopened them at 6:15 pm. We complained. Huge numbers of names were not on the list.”

The Station One manager agreed. There were around 1200 names left off here in Station One. Then maybe a further 300 on other polling rooms, making a total of about 1,500 left off the register. After 6:15 pm another two or three hundred entered the polling station. Both the police and the army vote here.

Another political monitor came up shouting. He was Ahmed Nour Mohamed from the Islamic party. He pushed us into a corner with an angry crowd shouting behind and around him. “Iraqia TV station was in here filming. At 5 pm we should have been closed. At 6:15 pm a lot came in. There’s no electricity. And the other issue is they carry weapons with them. The only people with weapons in here should be the security guys.”

We looked at our watches. It was 8:10 pm and they were still voting. Hundreds and hundreds of them.

We got another phone call. They were still voting at Al Hoda High School, polling station 90 / 2. People were shouting that we should go over there. So we said OK.

It took about 15 minutes to cross town. We had a military escort so we cut our way through the darkness lights blazing at breakneck speed. And then chaos again. Darkness. Sweating bodies. Hundreds upon hundreds of soldiers crammed into this place. We swooped into station six which still had the lights on. The lady with the ink bottle to mark voters fingers hastily unscrewed the top in embarrassment. It seemed as if she’d been encouraging the soldiers to cast multiple votes. This time the station officials clambered round us in their eagerness to explain. “When we closed the door people climbed the gate and came inside the centre. We can’t control them. They are army and they are armed.”

Now we were mobbed by the election observers. They all came crowding round. Their official complaints were not being accepted. One man spoke for them. “The rules of complaint say our complaints must be stamped by the station manager. And he won’t stamp them. So we can’t submit them.”

We said submit them anyway without the stamp. They seemed relieved. “And we can’t stop them carrying flags. They shouldn’t carry flags. And there’s no power. We can’t see what’s going on.”

To be honest – it’s all very well blaming local officials but if hundreds of military and police names had not been left off the voting lists in the first place, much of this chaos might not have happened.

The journalist

We went back to the hotel. Tired. It was late. But our day was not done. Surood had a Kurdish journalist waiting to brief us. A reality check for us.

“You can’t solve the Kirkuk question with the three options (either putting Kirkuk with the Kurdish Region or giving it special autonomous status just for itself or adding it to the Baghdad centre). You can’t simplify things to these three options. The Kurds were oppressed here for many years prior to 2003. The Turkoman were also oppressed and their lands taken. Prior to these elections some political groups have been relatively silent. After the elections there will be open struggle. One problem – even when you speak to their Ambassador – is that you realise that the USA has no clear vision and the influence of the regional neighbours and Baghdad’s clumsy decision making process affects everything.

“We still operate on the basis of Saddam’s decisions. It builds a culture of revenge. This results in stagnation in reconstruction and oil industry development. I believe in focussing on development and waiting. At present most Kurds would favour union with the KRG. Just a few (like Talabani) favour autonomy.

“The political parties practice brainwashing. The real politicians have no say. If the politicians actually explained the implications of the three options, the people would not go with the KRG. There’s been no census of course but at least 50% of the population are Kurdish. 28% are Arabs, 22% are Turks, 1% are other minorities. The struggle has recently turned inward between the Arab and the Turkoman.”

In Conclusion

The Kirkuk issue is critical. Present Western government policy is to lobby hard for the issue to be set aside. Meanwhile the problem gets more and more explosive the longer it is left. It should be dealt with and resolved.

The Iraq elections: day four – Najaf

2010-03-03T17:50:00.001Z

The two most confident groups in today’s Iraq are Dawa and the Sadderists. Iran would like to see an alliance between Dawa, Hakim and the Sadderists but it is not going to happen. But that does not mean that there cannot be a pragmatic common agenda.

Wednesday 3rd March 2010 – The Dawa Party Boss

Our hotel is right next to the shrine and full to the brim with pilgrims but the food is good and the showers are hot and this ranks as the most comfortable of the various hotels we have stayed in during this particular adventure. When morning came we were reluctant to hit the road but do so, much refreshed, and walk our way out of this pedestrian-only corner of town along streets as bedecked with posters and crowded with people as every other street in Iraq these days. We hook up with our cars and our guards and head out for a meeting with Dr Majid Al-Zaini, the Dawa Chief of Staff for Najaf, who is also a provincial council member. We left Jaafer and Loveday behind to file articles with their newspapers, so we are a small delegation at this stage.

Dr Majid exudes confidence as he addresses us from behind his imposing desk. “The standard of the elections has improved. We expect a high turnout. As I see it there are two levels of competition here in Najaf. For the bulk of the people, some 80% of the electorate, the choice is between the State of Law Coalition (Malaki’s Dawa) on the one hand and the INA (Hakim/Sadderists) on the other.

“There is a wide gulf between that and the second level of competition where the remaining 20% of the population will choose between Jawad Bolani’s Unity of Iraq Alliance on the one hand and Ayad Allawi on the other.”

What the man is saying in so many words is that 80% of the population are mainstream Shiite here in Najaf and will vote for quasi-religious parties whereas 20% are Sunni and/or secular and will vote for the secular parties.

As if he had been listening to our thoughts Dr Majid immediately adds, “Islam versus secularism is not the issue they campaign on. They talk about national issues.”

We ask him what effect the open list will have whereby people can select the candidate for whom they wish to cast a vote rather than being forced to vote for an entire list.

“The open list system is going to affect the outcome of these elections but it is far from clear as to exactly what that effect will be.

“This is a parliamentary election of course, but the January 2009 provincial council election results offer a hint as to the way things may go. The provincial council has 28 members, 7 of whom are Dawa, 7 are Mehrab (Isci), 6 are Sadderist, 4 belong to Adnan Al-Zurufi’s group (the Governors group and allied to Dawa), 2 are with Jaffery and 2 are independent. Interestingly, when it came to appointing a governor, all of them backed Adnan except for the Isci counsellors. Adnan was brought in from the outside. There were a few provinces where that happened, where a governor was brought in from outside. As I recall Babil and Nisan provinces both did that as well as Najaf. At the last election for parliament there were 8 seats, 7 of which were held by the former INA Alliance (which included Dawa at that time) and 1 of which was held by Alawi’s group. This time around, with open list voting, each list can put forward up to 24 candidates for a total of 12 parliamentary seats here in Najaf province.

“Remember too that in the current parliament, the Dawa party has only got 9 seats in the entire assembly. At the last elections Dawa was a comparatively small party and couldn’t field enough candidates.”

There had been a lot of talk about electoral bribes. In Babil one candidate had been giving out shoes to the electorate. I thought this was a storm in a teacup in view of the fact that in the USA candidates actually send money round in the post. It is not uncommon for members of the electorate to get $5 notes in letters. They dodged bribery law by saying that it was a contribution towards postage for filling out some questionnaire. Mind you Maliki was alleged to have handed out guns to potential voters which did seem slightly over the top.

Majid laughed. “Our electoral law prevents us giving gifts to encourage voting. But it’s normal to give gifts in our society. It’s part of Iraqi culture.”

At this point the meeting was interrupted, Ali wanted to remind us that we had little time because we had an important appointment with the Grand Ayatollah.

Grand Ayatollah Mohamed-Sayed Al-Hakim

As we step out into the street the sun is hot making us conscious of the fact that we are that bit further south. An escort with outriders and guns are waiting to take us to meet Grand Ayatollah Mohamed-Sayed Al-Hakim. We find him in a rabbit warren part of town in a house which itself is something of rabbit warren filled with disciples and supplicants. We are guided to a frail, humble old man with great charm who sits almost bent double on the floor in the corner of a crowded majlis. Across the room is a middle-aged urbane man who is introduced as Hojat Al-Islam Mohamed-Hussain Al-Hakim, the son of the Grand Ayatollah. We speak to the wizened old man, launching straight into the important issue of whether he believed in Waliyat Al-Fakih, the system used in Iran whereby clerics were encouraged to compete in the political mainstream and/or back specific candidates.

The old man was about to answer but his son interrupted. “No politics”, he said. “I’ll deal with political questions later, only ask my father about religious matters.”

We had no choice but to obey and so asked him to explain how somebody became a marjah, i.e. a person who could issue fatwas, normally of the rank of Ayatollah or above.

“The reputation of a marjah is based on two factors. First there is the religious issue. It is the role of the marjah to be able to go into depth with regard to the laws of Islam. Secondly, his role is based on trust. The people need to be able to trust his sincerity.

“This is the road imams must take. They have to preserve and copy the model given them by the Prophet. Their role is to build real trust. The marjah does not have any practical power given to him. The marjah has no judicial power. Mutual trust is the basis on which he builds his relationship with his followers. He has to lead his followers by example showing them the role they should take and the believer must follow his example. There is no ranking by which one marjah is of greater importance, or has greater authority over another. There are a number of marjah and all of them work on that same basis of mutual trust in order to enable things to move forward. We work for the interests of the people based on simple mutual understanding and trust.”

Out of curiosity we asked him whether a Christian could become a Muslim without surrendering his basic Christian beliefs. It was an awkward question.

“We consider Muslims to be originally of the Christian faith. We accept both Moses and Jesus as prophets. We as Muslims accept the previous sacred books and have shared principles with both Judaism and Christianity. However Christians and Jews may not always accept that Mohammed was the final prophet, this despite the fact that we accept their prophets. Therefore, the fact that we have the final messenger from God is the basis on which we have our religion. If you can share that belief then one can be a Muslim and a Christian at the same time. It is possible.”

We asked whether there was competition between Iraq and Iran for the religious leadership for the Shiite world.

His eyes flashed steel and his tone of voice changed immediately. “There is no conflict between Najaf and Qom,” he said sternly. “There are many howzas (schools), Lebanon for instance. We have no differences based on national identity. We are academic seminaries. Obviously we take in people from all nationalities.”

The conversation was getting close to political. This very elderly man is much talked about as “Sistani’s successor”. They were keeping him from treading on any thin ice. We were told we should say our farewells and were led aside to another room to talk politics with the son.

Hojat Al-Islam Mohamed-Hussain Al-Hakim

Here there are no other listeners, just ourselves and the Grand Ayatollah’s son. We drink tea and chat. We start with a tame subject. “What’s the difference between an Ayatollah and a Grand Ayatollah, we ask?

“Well in part it’s a matter of academic achievement. The stage at which a man can give fatwas is that of an Ayatollah. What happens after that is that he issues a book based on these rulings. He then reaches a second stage at which he is able to reply, effectively, to the questions asked by his would be followers. He then becomes Ayatollah Othman (Grand Ayatollah). There are four Grand Ayatollahs in Najaf: Mohamed-Sayyed Al-Hakim, Sayyed Sistani, Isak Fayad, and Bashir Al Najafi.”

And what of the controversial Waliyat Al Fakkih issue that we had tried to ask of earlier? Did the Iraqi Ayatollahs believe in the separation of politics and religion? Or did they follow the Iranian model whereby religion had a political role?

Waliyat Al Fakkih means the rule of the jurisprudents, the legislators, i.e. the supreme authority on Islamic Law, who are the Ayatollahs.

“Sayyed Al Khoei (an Iraqi Grand Ayatollah) did not believe in Waliyat Al Fakkih. Sayed Khomeini did.

“But even in Iran not everyone believed in this process. Sayed Gulpegani did not. This idea that Iran is with Waliyat Al Fakkih is not true. The Marjariyah have many different opinions.”

He started to reflect on Iraqi history on the supposition that that would help us understand, “When communism came to Iraq, the people still followed Sayyed Mohsin Al Hakim who considered communism ‘Takfir’. He decided that there was a clear contradiction between communism and Islam. But Sayyed Mohsen Al Hakim never allowed trouble to develop over the issue.

“Something that is Takfir is something that is in clear contradiction with Islam. The concept of ‘Takfir’ is not an idea that should be associated with killing.”

He was musing on a range of issues now based on the one theme. He continued. “Sayyed Khomeini was here in exile in Najaf for 15 years but kept in the background, studied, and taught as well.

“Any marjah has a right to political views. At the same time, his followers may have questions. A marjah may even give fatwas on political issues. The difference is that those who believe in Waliyat Al Fakkih believe that the marjah has a role in the nitty-gritty of politics.

“But none of us would dispute the fact that the marjah has to address all fields of life – and indeed must do so. That is what Sayyed Mohsen believed – but Sayyed Mohsen did not personally have a direct role in politics.”

We decided to follow up on the earlier, “Could a Christian be a Moslem” issue.

“My father said that a Christian could be a Moslem, if he accepts the Prophet Mohamed as his final prophet. If he accepts that he accepts Islam, the inference being that he accepts that the doctrine of the trinity does not apply.”

We thanked him, and enlisted his help for future visits and he agreed to help us in any way he could. Then we said our goodbyes and started down the steps of the Grand Ayatollah’s home. Our next port of call was the governing council building.

The Najaf Governing Council

For this meeting we were a full compliment, rejoined by Loveday and Jaafer who had filed their stories. We were meeting the assembled Najaf Governing council, or quite a number of them at any rate. The President of the Provincial Council was a Dawa man, Sheikh Faed Kadhum Noon. And he wore a white turban like a Mullah, presumably because he was some sort of Mullah. This was Najaf after all. He launched into a speech.

“Many say this was the original site of the Adam and Eve story.

“Here things change slowly. Change depends on the emotions of the people. But as time passes since the fall of Saadam things have changed. Politics has become less emotional and more national. At the beginning of the democratic process there were 200 parties. Now there are fewer. People make choices based on intellectual decisions.

“We in the Islamic Dawa party believe in the role of religion in politics. We make no distinction between the religious and the others. We do not think politics is an embarrassment. We don’t want to make a difference between clerics and non-clerics. Clerics have a role. Sayed Sistani sponsors and encourages politics from the first day until now. His support for elections is clear. He respects the wants of the people of Iraq. He believes regardless that all political parties have a role. He encourages them. He is considered a marjah for everyone. If he chose one party we’d all belong to it.”

Another politician took over and started to hold forth. “I don’t believe we’ve returned to sectarianism. Even if you look at Sunni / Shiite politics, Allawi’s list has Sunnis and Shiites. And we are the same. Politics is now based on national issues rather than sectarianism.”

A new voice took the floor. “The Baathists have to leave. They were responsible for a terrible bombing in Najaf recently. So we released a statement advising all Baathists not to stay a single day because we will take action within appropriate bounds.”

Someone else tried to change the subject, “There are 300 proposed investment projects in Iraq and most of them are related to tourism. Here we have 12 flights a day, and when pilgrimages are at their peak we have 30.”

The next man to speak was important. He was a Sadderist. “Our popularity here is normal, given the fact that we’ve shed our blood. In addition the sacrifice of Sayyed Mohamed Al Sadr and his sons had a huge effect. Since 2003 we have played an important role. Since 2004 we have had the support of a lot of poor people.”

We asked about the four candidates allegedly backed by Sheikh Qais Al Qazali, the Najaf Sheikh who was close to Tehran and whose followers were said to have held Peter Moore during his final period of confinement when he was traded on as a hostage. Were they Sadderist?

“No the four are not part of the INA nor are they Sadderist. We Sadderists have a number of strong positions, on the Status of the Forces Agreement (Sofa) and on security.”

Another Sadderist voice took the floor; This seemed to be an important man, Sayyed Muhammad Ayyid al-Musawi, who said, “We say we have two goals:

To end the occupation
To improve security and the quality of life in the country

“We feel that an end to occupation depends on action rather than a negotiated agreement. I consider Qais Al Qazali a personal friend.”

We said our goodbyes and headed across town to a restaurant with superb shisha and shwarma and hot sweet tea. We relaxed an hour or so and listened as a poor Shiite refugee was brought to us to tell us his woes. Later we made the long journey back to Baghdad and wearily checked in to the same old Mansour hotel.

In Conclusion

Sadderist support is considerable. The Sadderists remain a significant force. They are surprisingly pragmatic. Their star is on the ascendancy.

The Iraq elections: day three part two – Karbala and Najaf

2010-03-02T16:30:00.001Z

Malaki had nine MPs prior to the current elections in Iraq. By the time the dust settles he will have ninety or so MPs this time round. Given his far stronger hand it is inconceivable that he will surrender the premiership.

Tuesday 2nd March 2010 continued – The Governor of Karbala

We arrive in Karbala at lunchtime a little weary from our travels and search for and find a nice clean restaurant and relax a while eating shwarma, drinking hot tea and smoking sheesha. Then we head across to the office of the Governor. We arrive before he does and have time to lounge in the big chairs and gather our thoughts before Governor Amalaldin Al-Hir strolls into the room. He is a modest man of quiet demeanour and sits along with us in front of his desk, rather than behind it. He is proud of his town and chats affably, pointing out that on the last Shiite holy day some 14,000,000 pilgrims had visited the town, 200,000 of whom had been from outside Iraq. “All the violence of the recent years was worth it when you consider what we have achieved”. He chatted on about the town’s achievements and we question him about the forthcoming elections. He said that all was going well and that they expected a 60% turnout, which was impressive. He claimed that the new “accountability and justice” law under which Baathists are banned from standing for parliament would not lead to any reduction to the number of those voting.

The Dawa Party Boss

Suddenly everybody leapt to their feet. A stately white haired man with a neatly trimmed white beard and a powerful demeanour entered the room with something of the authority of a king. He wore in a dapper suit and a fine silver ring on the second finger of his right hand. The man was introduced as Ali Al Adeeb, the number one man in the Dawa Party in Karbala and the most prominent of the fourteen on Dawa’s senior ruling council and certainly the most powerful man in Dawa after Prime Minister Maliki himself. He had that demeanour of absolute confidence. I couldn’t help wondering who really runs Dawa. I suspect it is this man who pulls the strings of the party on a day-to-day basis leaving Premier Maliki free for the bigger stage and the political manoeuvring required to run the country. Ali Al Adeeb sat in the chair to one side of the Governor’s desk in front of an enormous Iraqi flag whilst the Governor sat with the rest of us like courtiers to a Prince. People rushed in to bring fresh tea and little plates of fruit for each of us as Ambassador Hambley went through the introductions and Ali started to talk. The man knew what he wanted to say.

“In the aftermath of these elections no single political block will be able to gain a majority. A coalition with the Kurds is therefore essential. Ideally that coalition should also include the Sunnis and the INA. The difference will now be that we no longer have to bring so many different factions into government. Now with a significant Dawa vote we will be able to choose whom we take as our allies.”

Was a Dawa-Alawi alliance a possibility, we asked?

“Alawi in the government means he brings people with him who are difficult to control. We are not going to be forced to form a coalition with a group that includes elements that do not want to be in a coalition with us. At least not unless Ayad Alawi wants fewer concessions than those demanded by the other groups. If it turns out that Alawi has more votes than any other group the probability will be that we ally with the INA.”

We said that we had been surprised to find Shiite student voters in both Babil and Baghdad ready to cast votes for Alawi.

He smiled, “I accept there are people in the universities that support Alawi but they are a minority. Essentially this election boils down to a competition between two groups. On the one hand you have the State of Law (Dawa Party) and on the other you have all the rest, including Alawi. And the others believe that there should be some kind of agreement with foreign countries. When you deal with Alawi you deal with foreigners.

“The dynamic was that in 1991 we attempted to bring down the former regime. The USA’s failure to stand by us at the time of that uprising resulted in strengthening the hand of men like Alawi. However we will consider any alliance. We have no red lines. Our goal is based purely on what is pragmatic and possible”.

We changed the subject and asked about Yousef Haboobi. Haboobi was an independent candidate in the 2009 Governorate elections who had personally garnered the highest vote achieved by any candidate in Iraq at that time.

“Haboobi was not banned from standing under the Accountability and Justice Law,” Ali Al Adeeb replied. As an independent he has to join either Dawa or Isci. Haboobi supports Dawa. He was more Islamist than Baathist”.

We asked him about the chances of a new group forming the next government other than Dawa.

“Of course if a group could form a government they wouldn’t need to come in with the State of Law coalition,” was his answer, and he started to talk about foreign activities in Iraq. “Maliki is keen to have diplomatic relations with Syria. Existing tensions with Syria are not in anyone’s favour. We have assisted Syria economically. Yet our relations with them are strained. There have been a number of parliamentary interchanges with Syria but so far there has been no progress. There have been reports that Syria would support a rejuvenated Baathist party in Iraq, but we ourselves do not want any Baath party”.

“In any case we don’t want to join any kind of international axis as we want to be neutral. If the USA has a problem with Iran we don’t want to be for one side and against the other. There is enmity between the USA and Iran. As a consequence Iran is concerned about the US military presence in Iraq. When we look at Iran in the context of the Middle East as a whole it is clear to us that Iran has imperialist ambitions. The Arab countries feel worried and threatened by Iran. However Iraq has to be careful about being balanced. In Iraq we have three key issues:

Security. That is why the Prime Minister gets backing because he delivers security.
Services. The people really want to see good services particularly electricity health and housing.
Sovereignty. Iraq cannot accept foreign interference.

“At the Governorate level here in Karbala things are going well. Karbala is unique because it attracts the hearts of those that love the House of the Prophet. For that reason 14,000,000 pilgrims came to Karbala recently. Today we laid the foundations for a new airport. Things are going well here”.

Our meeting was drawing to a close but we asked one last question about the Status of the Forces Agreement (Sofa) between Iraq and the USA.

“There are conflicting reports. Some suggest that the time US troops can stay in Iraq can be extended. There will be no extension. We discussed this in depth at the time that Sofa was negotiated and often enough since. We will not attempt to interfere with Sofa. What we are looking at now is how we can build a relationship with the USA after US military withdrawal from Iraq.”

Mr Yousef Haboobi

We said our goodbyes and started down the steps of the governing council building when Ranj suddenly called for us to stop. “That’s Yousef Haboobi,” he said, pointing at a slight unpre-possessing figure hastening into the building. We all chased after the great man and tumbled into his office. In the previous elections this thin unhealthy-looking gentleman in his late fifties had garnered more votes than anyone else in the entire country - and he had stood on an independent ticket. We asked him what his secret was.

“I am an old local employee. I have been working in many provinces since the 1970s as an administrator but I was always independent of the Baath party and I worked for the provision of services. The Iraqi people are smart, they remember things. This time around I entered the political race as an individual candidate and after winning I was appointed as second deputy governor. Here in the provincial council we work as a team. We are keen to promote investment and encourage our people. So far we have failed to meet the aspirations of our people. We hope now to do so”.

We asked him about the national political scene. Would Dawa make an alliance with the INA?

“My remit is at local level. I have no idea whether Dawa will ally itself with the INA. They say in politics that everything is possible. What I do believe is that these elections will play out well. Extremism is on the decline. There has always been a plurality of political voices here in Iraq but we have at last overcome the sectarian stage of our history. It belongs to our past.

“What we need to do now is to build a culture of services in Iraq. That has been less apparent in the past and that has to change”.

The Shrines

It was getting late and we needed to move on to Najaf. But first we decided we had to visit the great shrines of Karbala. This city marks the site of the great battle of 680 AD that split the Muslim world into two and was the genesis of the division that carved Islam into Sunni and Shiite sects. Both Hussein, the first Shiite martyr and his brother Abbas are buried here, each in an enormous gold encrusted tomb that doubles as a mosque and place of pilgrimage. We went first to the tomb of Abbas which like the other big shrines had been tiled with slabs of gold by the Safavid Kings of Iran. We found a black robe to cover Loveday and walked into the courtyard which was strung with coloured strands of white blue and green lights to mark the celebration of the prophet’s birthday a few days earlier. The noise was overwhelming as sermons were chanted over loud hailers to the masses gathered in front of the gold encrusted walls.

From there we moved to the nearby Imam Hussein mosque. Equally dazzling and spectacular and crowded with pilgrims decked in green prayer shawls and chanting in ecstatic frenzy as they sang hymns to the martyr Hussein. Interestingly we weren’t allowed into the inner sanctum. When I asked why they said that as Christians we would not have undergone the necessary ceremonial washing. When I said that we would be happy to wash, they said that this would not qualify as the washing had to be spiritual as well as physical. Embarrassed by their own restrictions we were all offered supper before they sent us on our way. But one thing I will say, these great shrines in Karbala and Najaf are possibly the most impressive in the world, certainly far more dramatic and surprising than the Vatican in Rome or the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem. And few Westerners have ever seen them. So we were privileged indeed.

The Governor of Najaf

By now it was very late at night, and we hurtled through the darkness towards the holy city of Najaf. But still, no rest for the wicked. We had yet one more meeting that evening as the clock moved on towards midnight. It was with Adnan Al- Zurufi, the Governor of Najaf.

We met Adnan in his home. A man of middle years, he spoke with an American accent following a long period of exile when Saddam was in power. Adnan was a renowned strongman, although his manner was pleasant much like that of some sleek American businessman.

“Since 2003 the Iranians the Syrians and the Saudis have all been clearly involved in terrorist activity in Iraq for different reasons. However there is one common goal that they all share, and that is to destroy our democracy here in Iraq. The Saudis hate the Shia and hate democracy which gives them a double reason to hate us. It is similar with Syria. The Syrians fear that our democracy will rub off on them.

“The Kuwaitis too. The Kuwaitis have a problem with Iraq and we have a problem with the Kuwaitis. We have disagreements over borders and over oil. After the Gulf War the United Nations took a great swathe of Iraqi land and gave it to them. That really affected our attitude to Kuwait.

“But the biggest threat is from Saudi Arabia and Iran. The Saudi Arabians believe that if the Shia control this country it will strengthen the arm of the Iranians. We suffer from Iranian policy and Saudi policy. The Iranians are trying to export their radical experience to us. The end result has been that the Iranians support JAM (Jaish Al Mahdi) and the Saudis support AQI (Al Qaidah in Iraq).

“Iraqis believe that both countries are radical. We cannot accept their policies in Iraq. Iraq cannot protect itself. That is why the Saudis push us to place the Iraq file in the hands of the Arab world and lobby the US and Europe with the idea that they, the Arabs, are the ones that have to balance the Iranian threat in Iraq. I don’t think Iran will ever control Iraq. This business has left a big impact on our security. Thousands of families have lost their kids. Saudis send money to Syria and Syrians send terrorists to Iraq. Syrian and Iranian intelligence cooperate in the international arena whilst at the same time the Saudis and the Syrians are developing closer links. Meanwhile their interference also extends into politics whereby the Saudis pay money to Alawi and the Sunni political parties whilst the Iranians pay money to some of the Shiite political parties”.

We asked him about the refugee issue, the people the United Nations euphemistically call “internally displaced persons”.

“There are all sorts of refugees. We have refugees from Iran who stay here because their roots are in Iraq. Many Iranians have lived here for generations. Plus we have families who have to live here in refugee conditions because the homes that they were displaced from are gone”.

We asked him about religion and politics. He himself is a Dawa party man.

“The main religious party to make a profit out of freedom and democracy is ISCI. In 2005 they used Sistani’s name but in the last two elections, Sistani has stated clearly that he is not supporting any particular candidate. This took the Islamist river away from them and they had to meet the Iraqis face to face.

“The Dawa party is not sectarian. Even in his private meetings I have never heard Prime Minister Malaki express sectarian views. Dawa doesn’t have a strategic religious agenda. The Prime Minister focuses on building up the political system. He does not believe that Iraq can be run by any one party. We believe that we can join an alliance with a secular party. It was why we fought in Basra, to deal with the sectarian issue. In 2004 I kicked the JAM out of Najaf. We do not believe in militia, we do not believe in sectarianism.

“Also all age groups in the Dawa party have had problems with the Iranians. People of my age don’t like the Iranians. Malaki built popularity with the Iraqis because he brought them security. Before Malaki came along, the whole country was under either the AQI (Al Qaidah in Iraq) or the militia. People will compare Dawa favourably to ISCI. The people believe that the Dawa leaders are strong and clean and not corrupt. Dawa has a 14 member council. The 14 elected Malaki as Dawa leader.

“Meanwhile, ISCI, the Saderists and the Jafferists are developing closer links.

“Historically the Baath party does not believe in freedom. Malaki’s agenda is to control the party with full power. If you talk to the Baathists now, you see that they don’t believe in the democratic experiment. The Baathists left a dark mark on our lives, we can’t accept them. Even myself; they destroyed my back and I suffer to this day from the wound. I saw the guy who was beating me torturing women. Alongside me there were five women being tortured in one cell. I cannot accept to see this Baathist government back again. How can I accept these people? That is why we took the deBaathication decision. I said to them: live as normal citizens and leave the future to your sons.

“They don’t believe in democracy. They still collect money for terrorist activities. We cannot accept them again.

“But I deal with Alawi’s people in Najaf the same way as I deal with Dawa. I don’t care if they are secular. But I cannot see Baathists come back again. Recently a Nazi was extradited for crimes committed in World War Two. How then can we with thousands of mass graves accept the return of the Baath party? If you ask us to do that you encourage revenge. And there has been revenge. Between 2004-2008 ISCI and the Saderists killed 400 Baath party members. So from 2009 when I took over as Governor we did not have one assassination in Najaf. The Baathists can do their business here but they cannot enter the security arenas. The Baathists have two factions, one which specialises in politics and the other specialises in military intelligence.

“Those that specialise in politics are the old Baathists. They don’t make so much trouble. But their military intelligence wing is a different matter. Recently we captured two of them who wanted to kill me”.

We asked him whether the tribes were causing trouble.

“As you know sometimes the tribes play a role in politics. In the period 2003-2004 the militia took control here and they used the tribes to fight the government. This was a real problem. The Saudis and the Iranians were also trying to infiltrate those tribes. Even the Emirates gave money to tribes in the South. Malaki is trying to cut that influence. The tribes also have a security role. Some of the Sheiks bring us information. But we should not overemphasise their importance”.

Now it was almost midnight. We left the governor and continued our journey into Najaf and found the little hotel we were to bed down in this one evening.

In Conclusion

Whatever alliances are formed subsequent to the current elections, chances of a political alliance between Alawi and Malaki are minimal. The enmity between the two camps is not merely at leadership level but extends right down to the grassroots.

The Iraq elections: Babil on day three

2010-03-02T16:14:00.001Z

Anger with foreign interference in Iraq is not confined to one section of society. It is universal. In the early days after the fall of Saddam most anger was directed against the Kuwaitis. Over time that shifted and the Islamic Republic of Iran became the number one enemy for most Iraqis. Now that perspective has shifted again in the past year and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has become the new hate figure in Iraq.

Tuesday 2nd March 2010 – The Governor of Babil

It’s a six am start for the journey South. Ranj finds the absence of breakfast a major hurdle. Jaffar Al Ahmar of Al Hayat Newspaper has joined our small team and he went out into red zone Baghdad last night on a sweet shopping expedition. We comfort ourselves on the luscious homemade Baghdad confectionary he has provided as we hurtle through the suburbs past election hoardings in their countless thousands – I mean that literally. Every traffic island, every lamppost, every wall, every space that doesn’t move – there’s a poster. Unbelievable. Talk about election fever.

Eventually we thunder into Babil, travelling as ever at breakneck speed. The small convoy swings straight into the governor’s compound.

Our first meeting of the day is with the Governor. He sits in a long room. It’s just the same as it was with the last governor when we were in Babil just over a year back. Ornate gold trimmed couches line the walls with the governor’s desk at one end. The only difference is that the desk is placed at a different end. The new governor came in with the last governorate elections in January 2009. His name is Engineer Salman Naser Al-Zarqani.

“This is not just an Iraqi city but a place for all humanity,” he says. Which is right of course. Babil is the modern name for Babylon. Old Babylon is flattened. What remains is just five minutes away from the modern city. The ruins were much renovated by Saddam and then flattened again by the Americans. But the modern city survived the war pretty unscathed. “This city is in all the holy books. It is the source of dialogue for all civilisation. It is at the heart of Iraq, close to Baghdad.”

Governor Salman was a round faced bespectacled man with a trim beard. He sat behind his big desk to the right of a large Iraqi flag and an enormous bowl of pink and white gladioli. “As we approach the elections, you will find that Babil respects democracy,” he began. “The various campaigns have been active and strong. The practice of democracy here is close to that you are used to. There is intense competition. The challenges we face, such as that of unemployment, are historic problems. Previously under Baathist rule services were free but then we had to fight in their wars. But we have got rid of Saddam. Now the main challenge we face is the interference of foreign countries in our democracy. This stagnates our work and makes it very difficult. I think that all the countries in the world interfere. And certainly our neighbouring countries. Of all our neighbouring countries only Jordan is openly positive.

“In addition, many poor decisions by former governing councils have exacerbated unemployment. Despite all this we have improvements. We are free to express our opinions. And children who used to play with guns are now at school. Freedom requires sacrifice. We are progressing towards a different idea of citizenship and a different understanding of the role of the state.”

And the elections we asked. Were there any specific problems?

“It is possible there will be significant changes because of the open list system,” he said. In previous elections, list-style proportional representation was used – now people can vote for just one candidate. “This enables people to vote for individuals rather than political blocs. And in this country sometimes the individuals are not really politically aligned with the blocs they represent. Here we have Safir Suhail, who is a secularist, running with the Islamists. Similarly you’ll find Baathists in many of these groups. For instance, here Iskandar Wit Wit (the Deputy Governor) is running with Alawi’s list but he is banned as a Baathist. The Higher National Committee for Accountability and Justice has banned him as a Baathist. Can he then stand?

“The IHEC (Independent High Election Commission) must decide. Then an appeal is possible. We respect the IHEC. There were protests in Babil against his candidacy. He is Shia. He was governor of Babil in 2003 and there were protests for eleven days at the time of his appointment. He was removed on the basis that he was a Baathist. Theoretically he is currently Deputy Governor. Baathists like him try to re-enter politics under the guise of being independent politicians. It’s like it was with the Nazis.” (Wit Wit’s candidature was reinstated on appeal).

If Wit Wit was so unpopular, we asked, how come he was ever elected Deputy Governor?

“He achieved three out of thirty governorate seats. He gained the votes of other council members through political jockeying. Up until the final days of the Saddam Hussein regime, I saw him wearing military uniform and carrying a weapon. He was a trainer in ‘Al Naqwa’ until March 2003.”

How did the Governor get his own position, we asked?

“I personally am an independent. The provincial council appointed me. Many entered politics as independents but stood as part of political blocs.”

And the Babil Council?

“24 represent Islamic groups. 6 are moderate secularist.”

How did he think the elections would go?

“My personal view is that Dawa will take 70% of the vote in Babil; and the secular will take 30%. In the Provincial Council elections 9 seats were taken by Dawa.

The Governing Council

Ali Mawlawi took us across town. We drove through Babil’s bustling but dilapidated market heading for the council chamber itself to meet the Council members. We sat on the chamber floor in seats allocated for councillors as other councillors assembled one by one across the way behind a great long desk peppered with microphones. Discussion was very formal.

Fahm Maana, a Saderist, was the first of the councillors first to talk. “Now that we have an open list system,” he said, “we know each candidate one-by-one. Today Hila (Babil governorate) has a high level of democracy and freedom of expression. The competition is intense.”

Another councillor named Dr Qassim Mahdi from Ahrar political party interrupted. “There are some independent candidates who go with the political blocs. Last year after the election of the governorate council, we all changed our allegiance. I want to call upon the neighbours of Iraq to support this political process. The elections are most important. I would like to see cooperation from all international organisations.”

Next to speak was Najid Al Jinabi. “The open list system will allow people to choose. We call on the United Nations to support our democracy. We want Iraq to be free.”

Falaha Karim Al Kafargi, a Dawa Party councillor, spoke next. “We are concerned about the UN role in Iraq – and we want to know what your role is here. The forthcoming elections are important to us. The issue that concerns us most is unemployment.”

We explained that we were the only international monitors registered to Iraq’s IHEC that would be travelling extensively in the interior of Iraq and that our role was twofold: first, to get their views on the probity of the elections and second, to report back to our colleagues in the West and indeed the wider Arab World as to what was happening in Iraq in order to foster better understanding.

Talib Obaid Nasser, an independent councillor, responded. “The Iraqi population is diverse. We respect all ethnicities. We respect minorities. One of the main issues we are concerned about is that of the foreign countries. The murders they have caused. I would also like to touch on the issue of the extreme satellite channels which portray a negative image of the Shiites in Iraq. Many TV stations portray the Shiites as criminals. That’s not true.”

Bashir Naji Al Rubaidi, yet another councillor, added a further comment. “We support the open list system,” he said.

A female councillor, Dr Subaina Aziz Abbas, interrupted, “This experience is not a new one for us.”

The councillor that headed the Public Relations committee, Mazin Abdul Karim Aboud, wanted to comment, “We hope for improved relations with the international community. We hope for better provision of services after the elections. We condemn all negative interference from the region and the rest of the world. We hope the elections can proceed without more interference.”

Another councillor, Mahmoud Rahman, wanted the last word. “Why are you here?” he asked, repeating the earlier question.

So we tried to explain again, in greater detail this time.

The Dawa Party

Our next port of call was the Dawa party offices in Babil. There we met a thin man in his late fifties with a black moustache. This was Hasan Jalil Haichel, head of the Dawa Party in Babil. He sat us all in big arm chairs large enough for giants and served us cans of Sprite as he shared his thoughts.

“The change in Iraq presents the other Middle East countries with both a challenge and an opportunity. We are concerned by their interference in our internal affairs. We are non-sectarian in our views. We hope to see free and fair elections.”

Could there be free and fair elections if Baath party members were excluded, we asked?

“The Baath Party committed many crimes. They were on a par with the Nazis. Post regime change the Dawa Party did not take revenge. When it comes to their having to answer to the Accountability and Justice Law, this is implemented by a committee run by parliament – not by the Dawa Party. We are for national unity. Who knows, in the next session of parliament the Accountability and Justice Law may be frozen or terminated. Huge numbers of Dawa Party members were killed here by known Baathists.”

We asked whether there were splits within Dawa?

“The party is united despite the challenges it faces. We have no worries. We are confident and believe that Dawa’s popularity is increasing.”

Another Dawa official named Abu Safar joined us.

“I was imprisoned by the Baath for seven years. The level of crimes, terrorism, torture and mass graves, is unbelievable. The Baath Party is not wanted in Iraq. De-Baathification is for the benefit of Iraq.”

A third Dawa Party voice was that of Dr Walid Al-Hilli. “We cannot adopt them (the Baath Party) in the new Iraq. I was arrested under Saddam. To begin with we thought we could cope with the ex-Baath Party members. For the first eight months after the fall of Saddam we gave them the freedom to work and there was no problem. Then they started to work against the Iraqi people.

“The whole process on the 18th August 2009 when the Foreign Ministry was bombed was organized by the Baath. It reached the point where we realized that we couldn’t cope with them any longer. We are particularly concerned about the elite Baathists known as the Fedayeeen Saddam. There are about one thousand of them, and about 30,000 rank and file Baath Party members.”

And these elections?

“The open list system will make a big difference. Democracy is growing.”

Babil University

Our next stop is Babil University. They aren’t given any warning we are coming but we soon find the President, Nabeel Al-Aaraji, a round faced bearded man with closely cropped white hair. He explains that this, the University of Babylon, is a comparatively small university with 17,000 students. Eight of the university’s twenty colleges are on this campus. Subjects include Engineering, Science, Education and Koranic Studies. As is common for most of the world’s universities, about 60% of the students are female.

We ask to meet the students on campus and split into teams as before. My team gets the President walking along with us, which cramps our style a little as the students are reluctant to talk in his presence. We pick on a couple of girls first, Sarah aged 22 and Zohra aged 20. They are both studying computer sciences.

“Our main concern is security. We all think about security first. Then its jobs and services,” says Sarah.

“Yes, no jobs,” agrees Zohra.

What about recent measures to close down political activities on campus?

“It’s important to remove these candidates from the campus,” they say. “It’s better.”

We walk down the tree-lined avenues of the beautiful campus and grab a couple of boys, Sami and Mohamed. Both 21 and studying mechanical engineering.

“I want to find work in my location,” says Mohamed. “We want services and electricity. Security has improved but it remains our most important issue.”

Sami agrees. “Yes security is so so. And services, electricity and water, are not good enough. The people understand that conditions can only get better over time. We want to choose the right man to represent us. The people will elect those who will serve them.”

So who would they vote for?

“I’m voting for Allawi,” said Mohamed.

Whereas Sami was voting for Malaki’s Dawa.

We hadn’t much time but we decided to try two last students. They were girls, Lara aged 18 and Hoda aged 20, both studying computers.

“Security is our first priority. Then development. There’s not enough housing. And the education is not up to scratch. There’s not enough laboratory equipment, we need more. These problems developed in the past, from the period of sanctions. But now even the method of teaching here leaves a lot to be desired.”

The university President looked a little uncomfortable at this point. We changed the subject and asked who they’d be voting for.

“Malaki,” said Lara.

“Mithal Aloosi,” said Hoda.

I was surprised by the vote for the super-secular friend of Israel, Mithal Aloosi, down here in the Shiite heartlands and said so.

“Mithal Aloosi is honest and he’s not sectarian. Anyway my mother likes him.”

Do girls always vote the way their family votes, we asked?

“No, we may not always vote the same way as our fathers. But we always vote the way our mothers vote. We are traditional here.”

The Saderists

Our final visit was a quick stopover with the Babil Saderists. Now these were people we’d not met before. They have a tough reputation. And they lived up to it. At the start of the meeting our roles were reversed as they questioned us and made notes. Only then was it our turn.

The first of the Saderists to speak was Mohamed Al Husseini. “Tayar As-Sadari is composed of sons of Iraq. Following the fall of the regime, Sayed Mukhtadr assumed leadership of Tayara Sadri and united us as one group.”

Another man, who had remained silent up to this point took over. His name was Dr Qassam Mahdi. Where was Sayed Mukhtadr now we asked?

“In Iran doing post doctorate studies. These could take five years, and for some they take a lifetime.”

Would he come back as an Ayatollah?

“In Iran anything is possible. In Iraq it is improbable. But in Qom they have more advanced methods than our more classical approach.”

How was the election going?

“The Ahrar (‘freedom’) Movement was a pioneer in holding primaries. ISCI followed us. I hope to see increased support for the UN and the various organizations building a new Iraq. In Ahrar there are no ethnic divisions, no apartheid, no nationalities, no religious distinction, no governorate distinction, no tribal distinction, no house distinction, and no ethnic division. We love humanity in any place on the earth. By God’s help, we’ll involve ourselves in bettering health, education and transport.

“Here in Iraq inflation is a great danger. In Iraq you have to be affiliated to some political party to get a job. But we shall change things. We shall invest in housing, electricity, oil and science. This is my country. Here in Babylon Governorate we are putting forward four persons for parliament. We expect to win three – or at the very least two.”

I asked whether the Najaf cleric whose followers held Peter Moore hostage was a Saderist.

“No comment,” was the reply.

We said our goodbyes to Babil and headed for Karballah. The day was far from over.

In Conclusion

The Saderists are stronger now. More united and more disciplined than ever. But they will find it hard to translate that strength and determination into broad based popular support. People are a little scared of them.

The Iraq elections: Baghdad on day two

2010-03-01T15:52:00.001Z

Iraqi annoyance with international interference in the affairs of Iraq is almost universal. The main parties regarded as intervening unconstructively are Iran, Saudi Arabia and the USA. These superpowers are regarded as backing their client groups. Iraqis believe that Iran wants to head the Shiites. Saudi Arabia wants to head the Sunnis. The USA wants to maintain the status quo, whatever that may be at any point in time.

Monday 1st March 2010 – The Political Advisor to the Premier

Our first meeting of the day is with Ambassador Sadiq Al-Rikabi, the Prime Minister’s Political Advisor. We went straight to the point and asked him what sort of political alliances Prime Minister Malaki was likely to make in the aftermath of any election.

His reply: “It is normal for the PM to keep all doors open for the future. We have no concrete commitment with one. No closed door with the other. Two factors shape any future coalition:

The result of our forthcoming election
The manifesto of the future government

“Clearly no one list can form the government. A future coalition must be built.”

We asked what he thought of the I.N.A., one of the main contenders for power, a group led by an old friend of the NCF, His Eminence Sayed Ammar Al-Hakim.

Ambassador Sadiq Al-Rikabi replied, “There are weak ties within the components of the Hakim coalition. It is not easy for him to control his coalition. He has the Saderists with him, but the Saderists do not advertise their names. That says something. Every group tries to nominate its own candidate for the Premiership. This coalition has failed to nominate one person. Even within ISCI they are not sure whether to nominate Adel Abdul Mahdi or Bakr Jabr.”

So we asked whether that was implying that he didn’t want an alliance with the INA.

“We don’t want to say we don’t want anyone,” he answered. “After the election small groups may join the larger groups to find a place in any cabinet. There are already attempts to find the shape of the future government.”

Was he confident Malaki would win?

“Well, we will get a real presence in parliament. We are not sure who will form the government. In any parliamentary system it takes time to put together a new government. In Israel it takes months. We are a new born democracy here.”

So any coalition is possible?

“Yes. Despite the current election fever. We have been talking with the Kurds, with the different components in the Al Hakim alliance, with Aburisha, and with IP.”

We asked about Sheikh Qais Al-Khazali, the Najaf Sheikh who held Peter Moore as hostage.

“If the Saderists are truly a group,” Ambassador Sadiq Al-Rikabi replied, “He’s separate. If they’re a random collection of disparate elements, he’s one of them. Is there one Saderist political view? Do they have an agenda? I am not sure they know themselves.”

Then we asked about the Kirkuk issue.

“Everyone, including the Kurds, recognises that Kirkuk is not an easy issue to be resolved. That is why extreme solutions are not on the table. We are not worried about any referendum on Kirkuk because it will not be held tomorrow. Any new government will have to look at the Kirkuk file. Our view is that this problem should be resolved peacefully – and the solution should be acceptable to all components of Kirkuk. But it is not easy. Which Kirkuk for instance? There are questions over the border of the governorate. At least the Kurds are being more realistic than they were before.”

We asked about foreign interference in Iraq’s elections.

“It is not just the car bombs,” said the ambassador. “They are recruiting and funding religious extremists all the time. They provide religious coverage, logistics support. These people don’t enter Iraq from the sky. How come an Algerian, or someone from Morocco, or Yemen, leaves a car bomb in Baghdad to target a building? Who recruits them? Who has provided all the big funding over the past seven years? Do you think that for one moment it’s small groups that do this?

“When it comes to our neighbours, there are many factors that influence them. It is not only that the Saudis hate Shiites. Do they want a strong Iraq? Do they want Iraq as a strong Gulf state to keep a balance between the Arab side and those on the other side of the Gulf? Do they want Iraq in a strong relationship with the West? Saudi Arabia’s strong relationship with the West is built on oil. Iraq could follow the example of Saudi Arabia. Is it to the benefit of Saudi Arabia and Iran to see sectarian tension build in Iraq? I suppose Saudi Arabia regards itself as the protector of the Sunni in the same way that Iran regards itself as the protector of the Shiite.

“The West thinks that by encouraging Saudi Arabia, they put some sort of balance on Iran but they don’t realise that what they are doing is to the benefit of Iran because what they are doing pushes the Shiite of Iraq into the arms of Iran. To reduce Iranian influence the Shia should feel they have an alternative alliance.

“If Iraq’s neighbours recognised that there is no turning back from democracy in Iraq, it would be better. We won’t become an area of influence for them, like another Lebanon. They should recognise that all the car bombs will not defeat our democratic experiment. Then the position could change. They have begun to change I guess. Four years ago there were no Arab embassies here. Now ten send ambassadors. If we succeed in this election, then they will be forced to revise their position. We want better relationships with the UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain.

“There is a huge misunderstanding regarding the relationship between Iraq and Iran. The Saudis use propaganda to convince you that the Shia are under the hand of Iran. Our relationship with Iran is cultural, not geopolitical. But there is an underlying issue. Who leads the Shia, Najaf or Qom? Iran works hard to present themselves as the Shia leader. Iraqi Shia do not recognise the Iranians as their leaders. Najaf has one thousand years of history. Qom has one hundred years. Furthermore the Shia of Iraq are the source of the Shia. When Imam Ali left Medina he came to Kufa in Iraq. From that time he recognised his sincere followers were in Iraq. Furthermore, Hussein his son came to Iraq to announce his revolution.

“Iran has had just five hundred years as a Shiite state. It was all based on a decision by King Safavi. He failed to get Imams from Najaf so he imported them from Lebanon.

“Now there is real geopolitical competition between Iran and Iraq. In the Gulf region there are three strong states, Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia. There is competition between them as to who plays the main role. Iraq is not easy to be in the pocket of any superpower. Even the USA with the biggest embassy and 100,000 troops have failed to put Iraq in their pocket.”

We asked him again about relationships with ISCI. Would they form an alliance in the end?

He said that, “The differences between Dawa and ISCI are huge. We are proud we are Iraqis. We were founded in Iraq twenty years before the Iranian revolution. We didn’t learn Islam from them. We are not their followers. The Iranians failed to contain Dawa even when we were in Iran as refugees.”

We asked whether SOFA (the Status of the Forces agreement between Iraq and the USA) would be maintained.

He said, “At this moment we are following SOFA. We haven’t any other document.”

The Tribal Council Boss

After saying our goodbyes to Ambassador Sadiq Al-Rikabi, Ali Mawlawi told us that we had a meeting with the Prime Minister’s Advisor on Tribal Affairs, Haji Mouraki. This flagged up a big “Majlis Al Isnad” sign in our heads. The “Majlis Al Isnad” or the “Election Support Councils” were at times quasi-militia from the tribes. They put the fear of God into a lot of Iraqi politicians at the time of the provincial elections. Haji Mouraki was their boss.

He kept us waiting. We were driven to a high walled suburban Baghdad garden where we kicked our heels and chatted in the balmy sunlight of a spring morning in Baghdad. Eventually he came, wearing one of those Saudi style headdresses that became the uniform of a man of “the tribes” when they were revived in Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. He sat us down and started to talk history on a well-intentioned “all foreigners know nothing” basis. Perhaps he was right.

“The tribes played an important role in 1920,” said Haji Mouraki. “They opposed Britain but unfortunately they also supported the monarchy. In more recent years the tribes were not involved in decision making,” he said, dodging the seminal role of the tribes as presidential patsies in the final years of Saddam. “Following the fall of Saddam, the Prime Minister used the tribes to foster political stability in Iraq. After Basrah (an allusion to the cleaning up of the Basrah militia by the Iraq Army following the withdrawal of the British) the Prime Minister set up the Majlis Al Isnad – the support councils. The tribes are not a militia but they make another eye for the government.”

Then he came out with something interesting indeed. Perhaps he was flying an insubstantial kite, but he said, “There is a proposal to form a Higher Council for the tribes.”

We had often thought that a bicameral assembly might be a good idea for Iraq. Was this a proposal for some sort of Iraqi House of Lords, we asked?

He shook his head and changed the subject. “Prime Minister Malaki is moderate on an Iranian alliance. He is a moderate. He has links with the tribes.”

We asked him to tell us more about Majlis Al Isnad.

“The Majlis is not a particular political alliance. And it is not as active in the Kurdish Regional Government area.”

Was Majlis Al Isnad Malaki’s personal militia?

“The agreements are with the government and state rather than with a political party,” he said. “After Malaki’s gone they’ll still have a role.”

Were they armed?

“Not a single bullet. They are the eyes of the government. Basically they are a civilian force.”

He returned to our original question.

“The Higher Council will not be the equivalent of your House of Lords. We hope to bring in the change that will set them up in the next parliament. The Higher Council will be composed of 300 people. All sheikhs or tribal leaders. All elected by the tribes. Each of the provinces will have its own Higher Council representatives. The Higher Council will have limited powers, but it will be able to propose laws to parliament.”

We thanked him for his frankness. We had a lunch date so it was time to go.

The journalists

Back at the Mansour Hotel we were to have lunch with a collection of Iraqi journalists. Most of them were good friends of our co-host, the charming Dr Ali Naser Al-Khwildi, Deputy Head of Commissioners at Iraq’s Communications and Media Commission, Iraq’s new media watchdog: in former years it would have been called the “Ministry of Information”.

But even if they were Information Ministry boys these journalists were no patsies. Far from it. We met in a Chinese restaurant in the garden of the once grand Mansour Hotel.

We asked about the forthcoming elections. A journalist named Yassin responded. “We’re still in the preliminary stage as a democracy. The Iraqi electorate are still unfamiliar with concepts like freedom and choice. Democracy and liberalisation is misunderstood. What is of greater concern is that the sources of the huge amounts of money being spent in the various election campaigns are still unknown.”

Another journalist by the name of Jawad picked up where Yassin left off. “There are still issues that need tackling with regard to sectarianism. There’s some reluctance on the part of a proportion of the people to vote. They get overcome by a fear of retribution as a consequence of a return to the political arena by the Baathists. We expect a turnout of between 50 and 60 per cent. New political blocs are emerging.”

Next, a journalist named Jubar said, “Don’t expect one bloc to achieve a majority. And watch out for the legacy of the former regime which entrenched ethnic divisions. The more liberal and secular groups will do well. The Dawa party, and the secularist and quasi-secular groupings, will make significant gains.”

The next journalist to speak was a man by the name of Amir Hassan. “The election posters don’t reflect reality,” he said. “I don’t think there has been complete freedom in terms of candidates being able to put forward their campaigns. Some posters were vandalised. In 2005 there was more entrenchment and sectarianism than there is now. Some religious parties have aligned with secular parties – some have broadened their approach. The main political blocs are more balanced and this may have a negative impact on the ease with which the next government is formed. The Kurdish bloc’s role will be more prominent after the elections. They will be the kingmakers. I expect these elections to be more successful than previous elections. There is more trust and hope about.”

Dr Ali, the ebullient Deputy Head of the CRC, interjected. “The previous parliament was weak. The lack of any election law to constrain the political parties has had negative consequences. The interference of Iran and the Arab states has led to fewer choices. The unclear position of the USA has affected the positions of the parties. Whilst the USA has supported Iraq’s security, it has neglected our cultural and political institutions.”

Husam Al-Saffar, the supervisor of CMC’s website section, chipped in, “I’m optimistic. There’s more transparency. The choices for the electorate are broader. We are worried about the way some candidates are being financed with overseas funding. Some religious groups are making alliances with secular parties. Most, if not all, of the coalitions have rejected the idea of a sectarian quota system. The competition is better.”

Another journalist, by the name of Saqr, was particularly garrulous. “The previous elections were based on sectarian and ethnic divisions. The previous elections lacked proper participation by the Iraqis because the people were not convinced they’d result in a viable democracy. The results were disastrous. They strengthened the militias and resulted in greater numbers of displaced people. This has led to a firm acceptance that Iraq cannot be ruled by just one group. It has undermined the original stance of both the secular and the religious groups. In all Iraq except the KRG a new picture is emerging. The sectarian entrenchment is different. Even in the Sunni cities, there is plurality now. And even in the KRG, there is a new political bloc called ‘Change’. The next struggle is between the two visions for the future of Iraq (federation versus integration). One group tries to preserve sectarianism. The other is based on citizenship and is encouraged by the liberal secular groups. We hope there is no electoral fraud. After the elections there will be a new struggle. The future of Iraq depends on who will form the next government.”

Majid Tofan spoke next. This man is both a poet and a journalist. But then all Iraqis are poets. He said, “The election outcome will be based on the relative strength of Baghdad, Washington, Tehran and Saudi Arabia. These interfere most. The USA will try and balance the competing groups. As voters we have to contend with:

Interference from outside
Sectarian / ethnic divisions
Candidates’ speeches in which they make their positions unclear.

“The coalitions that will create the next government have yet to be formed. Some of the major groups are tainted by religion. Just because tribal leaders are present does not represent change. It is the views of the Iraqi population that have led to a shift in direction by the big parties, and a change in their rhetoric. Despite this there is still a lack of understanding of the views of the people on the part of most candidates. We have not had enough change in the political landscape. Our politicians are too out of touch.”

Majid Anbar had a comment. “A liberal cannot speak openly for fear of the Islamists. But the problem with these elections is more one of chaos than one of repression. We have more than 30 TV channels. More than 100 newspapers. Tens of radio stations. The press has a major role in Iraq. Since the fall (of Saddam) 150 journalists have been killed.”

A journalist called Yassin wanted to say something. “The media issue is part of the culture in Iraq issue. We hold the USA responsible for the lack of a true democratic culture in Iraq. So the religious hold power in this place. Many journalists are backed by political groups, though it is less the case than before. The law on the protection of journalists has not been passed. That law would be helpful by giving us a legal framework within which to operate.”

Jawad wanted to interrupt. “You have to make a distinction between the government and the political parties and the militias.”

Dr Ali wanted to come back, “The need previous to 2003 was for a centrist state. Now exposure to freedom has led to chaos. Most have replaced the old political groups with a new agenda. We need to institutionalise the media in Iraq. To educate them and build a culture of freedom of the press.”

It fell to Hussam to have the last word. “We need legislation on press freedom without government interference to curb our freedoms. Press issues should not be legislated by parliament but agreed by the journalist unions. Anyway, we don’t have enough support to develop a press law.”

Mustansariyah University

That afternoon we headed out to Mustansariyah University, one of Iraq’s biggest universities. The much bombed Mustansariyah University has 60,000 students attending day and evening classes in twelve colleges. The campus we visited had the colleges of Science, Education, Arts, Engineering, and Political Science. Mustansariyah is short on lab equipment and student accommodation is scarce. Services for student accommodation are also abysmal. Otherwise the university is OK. It has had two major bombings since the fall of Saddam, killing about 200 students and maiming countless more, mostly women. Most but by no means all of the students are from Baghdad. Most but by no means all of the students are Shiite.

We strolled round the campus, splitting into two groups so as to cover more students. Our group chose a group of young girls first. Their names were Marwa, Zaman, Nour and Zeinab. We started by asking what they thought of women MPs. Not much it seemed, nor of politicians in general.

“We are worried we will return to the same old faces.”

What did they think of the constitution of Iraq?

“Nothing. There is no advantage to the constitution. What we are afraid of is that sectarianism will lead to a real division in Iraq. In the past we had no divisions. Why should we have them now? Our problems are lack of proper employment and lack of proper education. We want to have a life. The Iraqi people still suffer. We’d be better without democracy if this is what it produces.”

Who would they vote for we asked?

They were evenly split. Two for Allawi, two for Malaki.

We picked a couple of boys next. Their names were Ali and Mustafa. Who’d win we asked?

“Probably Malaki. Security is an important issue.”

What did they think about moves to suspend Baathist candidates?

“They should have been permitted to participate. Saddam was one thing but those days have gone.”

And the election?

“We’re looking for people who are sincere and honest. This election won’t change anything.”

There had been steps to outlaw political party activities on campus. Was that right?

“There has been no intimidation but that decision was a good decision. We’ll be getting a Students’ Union soon enough. At a popular level there is no sectarianism. It’s the politicians who are sectarian.”

And their vote?

Again they were split. One was voting for Tariq Al Hashimi, one for Allawi.

We moved on, cornering one of the young ladies on campus. Her name was Zeinab. She was twenty years old and studying Arabic. We asked her who she’d vote for but she was reluctant to say.

“I’ll vote for any group that can provide security and address the concerns of the students. Students need employment based on the degrees they have obtained. We hope that things will get better. There were too many problems in the past. We hope to see things improve. We want an improvement in the whole situation for Iraq.”

Would she vote for a woman?

“No. I’ll vote for a man. They’re stronger.”

We laughed and said “Haram alaik” which roughly translates as “Behave yourself!”

We had time to grab one last group in this coed campus: Three boys. Luay and Haider, both 28 and studying history; and Mohanned who was 22 and studying geography.

“There are steps toward change. Step by step. There are some problems this election. We don’t like the Accountability and Justice Law (the law which excludes Baathists from parliament). Some groups give bribes in an attempt to influence the outcome. They should be outlawed. But not the Baathists. If there are legal proofs they’ve been involved in killings, fine. But it should be the people who decide.”

Who were they voting for?

It seemed we had a three way split. One was voting for Allawi, one for Malaki, one for the INA (the Hakim / Sadderist list). “Allawi took tough decisions in his last premiership,” said the Allawi supporter.

We asked about the decision to ban political activities on campus.

“It’s right. We are all pro-banning the student union. We should be independent from political groups on campus. The parties used to put pressure on us. Now things are better. It’s a good decision.”

We said goodbye and headed for home. It was getting dark and we had to travel south tomorrow.

In Conclusion

The old sectarian divisions are breaking down, particularly amongst the young. Young Shiite Iraqis are as likely to vote for Sunni candidates as Shiites – and vice versa.

The Iraq elections: Baghdad on day one

2010-02-28T15:36:00.001Z

Election fever is gripping Iraq and the voting turnout should be massive. Issues are many and varied but most parties are united in one view, the role of Iran and Saudi Arabia. Indeed of all of Iraq’s neighbours with the possible exception of Jordan, are universally regarded as counter-productive.

Sunday 28th February 2010

We are greeted by Ali Al Mawlawi at Baghdad airport. He’s a Research Fellow at the Iraqi Institute for Economic Reform. A young man, we first met at the Tory conference in England where he was representing the Dawa Party, Dawa being the governing party of Malaki, Iraq’s Prime Minister, our host in Iraq this time around. There are four of us so far, myself as Next Century Foundation Secretary General; our US trustee, the affable Ambassador Mark Hambley; Ranj Alaaldin, our young Iraq Research officer, now also a columnist for the Guardian; and my daughter, Loveday Morris, now working for the National Newspaper in Abu Dhabi.

Ali and his colleague Dr Ali from the Prime Minister’s office have a small team of special forces who whisk us into the Mansoor Hotel in Baghdad, a fine place in Saddam’s days, but now, like most of Iraq’s Hotels, a shell, with dried up swimming pool and no shisha; but the staff are friendly and accommodating. So far so good. This place sits on the edge of the secure hell hole called the Green Zone but not actually in it, making contacts with Iraqis much easier and our comings and goings more flexible.

As always, we take a special interest in minority groups when travelling in Iraq, most particularly the Christians, Yezidis and Jews. The Jewish community is now miniscule. But we deliver some stuff they need for Passover to one of their number before continuing with our meetings.

Our first hotel visitor is a member of the Christian community, Yussef. He chats about life in Baghdad.

“The bad people take the position that if the Mahdi comes, Iraq will be with Iran. The USA helps Maliki win but their policy is with the religious. Why is there so much terrorism against the Christians? They don’t allow women to go bare-armed. They force some of our women to wear the headscarf. And before with Saddam and after it’s all the same for us. No security. We have many widows. It’s difficult for them here in Iraq. It is difficult for all the minority groups. Where is common humanity?

“Some things are better. During Saddam’s time you had to work a month to earn money for a Pepsi. Now Pepsi is cheap. Before you had to watch what you say. Now you can speak freely. But what really matters is security. That comes first and that we don’t have.”

After crashing awhile we head across for supper with our Baghdad board member, Mr Walid Issa Taha. He has everything laid on in fine style. At his place we meet a collection of notables and discussion is forthright and dramatic.

With Walid Issa Taha

After introductions, the first to talk is Dr Tahseen Al-Shaikhli, spokesman for the Council of Ministers.

“In 2005 most politics was sectarian, now there is less pressure. People try to choose who they will vote for along less restricted lines. But Maliki wants to be the next Prime Minister and he has every chance.”

Mithal al Aloosi, the controversial much maligned MP who once visited Israel and had his two sons assassinated for his pains is the next to talk. “The Iraqis want to be outside Iranian influence – in reality Iran’s influence is very weak. Iraqis have an anti-Iranian voice. The people organised demonstrations against Iran, even when the Prime Minister visited Najaf and Maysan. Many political parties have changed their approach. The people will no longer accept the old Sunni-Shiite divisions.”

We asked him about moves to suspend Baathist candidates.

“It’s a bad mistake on the part of our incumbent Prime Minister. A total of 397 were suspended in the end. This after seven years of change and reconciliation. It’s a real step backwards”

Bahaa Mayah, former Prime Ministerial advisor now campaigning as an independent in the elections for Babil, interjects, “We don’t like to see the influence of the Iranians. None of our neighbours are helpful. The Saudi government is not actually financing terrorism, but they have closed eyes to the activities of extremists.”

One of the wiser heads present, Dr Zuhair Kumali, Advisor to the Prime Minister, chips in, “Neither Saudi Arabia nor Iran nor our other neighbours want to see this model (Iraqi democracy) succeed. The Saudis will be fighting for their lives if our democratic experiment succeeds.”

Hadeel Hassan, a female Baghdad lawyer comments, “The Iraqi people are looking for democracy. We have taken our first steps in this direction.”

Bahaa Mayah from Babil picks up the discussion.

“Our problem is terrorism. The terrorists are becoming more extreme. But some things are good. Last time we had a closed list system (meaning you had to vote for the party not the individual). Now that has ended which is progress. Now people can discriminate as to whom they vote for. There are some good people on the Prime Minister’s list, but on the Iran issue, notice how no Iraqi politician has commented critically on Iran’s nuclear program. That indicates where sympathies lie.”

Dr Tahseen comes back with a comment on sectarianism. “More than 40% on the banned Baathist list are actually Shiite. There is less sectarianism.”

Conversation turns back to the security issue again and Dr Zuhair interrupts with a jibe against America.

“US policy has been to support dictators in this region for the past seventy years. The current US administration has been neglecting Iraqis. The US government has been saying it will leave Iraq. The decision to withdraw is a US decision.”

Our friend from Babil adds a few words.

“Things here are a cocktail of chaos. We as politicians don’t know what we want – whether to be friends with the US and the West or with Iran. We do not have a strong government that is capable of defending Iraq’s interests. Look we got rid of the anti-Iranian MKO (Mujahideen al Kalk – a one time quasi-militia group based in Iraq) and we asked no concession from Iran in return. That alone is an indication of the fact that we don’t know what we are doing.”

Dr Zuhair comes back on the issue of the banning of the Baathists.

“The Iraqi people are not stupid enough to bring the Baathists back. Nobody could be that stupid. People are wiser. You used to have excesses (in regard to sectarianism) but now they have stopped.”

At this point our formal conversation comes to an end. Food is being served in the garden in the form of a lavish barbecue. Then we head on back to the Mansoor exhausted from our travels and more than ready for bed.

In Conclusion

For the people of Iraq, security remains the number one priority. They may not all back the same candidates but they will all be voting for the candidates whom the best regard as capable of delivering better security on a day to day basis.

Don’t hit the man when he’s down?

2009-10-01T23:07:00.000Z

For the past year or so Gaza has been utterly dependent on the millions of dollars that have trickled through the tunnels from Iran and the United Arab Emirates. This money has enabled Gazans to live and breathe. There has been no Western funded reconstruction. The West has joined force with much of the Arab world and Israel to lock Gaza down. They kept the lid on the pressure cooker without any resultant explosion by allowing the tunnels to continue operating so that some money got through past the Egyptians and Israelis who keep the keys to Gaza.

The consequences of sanctions have been that the people of Gaza have grown more radical. Young men and women who once transferred their allegiance from Fatah to Hamas have now transferred their allegiances from Hamas to Islamic Jihad. Conversely however, the Hamas government of Gaza has grown more moderate. So much so that on the 31st of July 2009 Khaled Mishal, the head of Damascus Hamas, spoke publicly on behalf of the Hamas movement as a whole to recognize the merit of a two state solution. A big step for a formerly rejectionist organisation. Perhaps it is an indication of renewed Hamas confidence. Hamas may not be popular within Gaza but it is increasingly respected for the efficient way in which it maintains services and stability despite the destruction and deprivation.

But then there’s Iran

Meanwhile in Iran there is big trouble. The government of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is worried. So are those, like Ayatollah Mesboh Yazdi, who pull his strings. Internally they face the prospect of an united opposition for the first time ever in the shape of the Karroubi / Moussavi alliance. That opposition managed to mount yet another huge demonstration on the last Friday of Ramadan (18th September). In response, Ahmadinejad has panicked and closed Karroubi’s office and seized all the computers as a prelude to a possible arrest. It is history repeating itself really. How closely Ahmadinejad’s nervous actions mirror those of the Shah in his last days. Ahmadinejad is doubly worried about keeping the lid on things now that students are returning to the universities, after the summer break. Having said that – sadly – the demonstrators are unlikely to have the strength to overthrow the system and we’ll have to wait another four years for a quasi-honorable government to be returned in Iran (and that depends on their not manipulating the elections that time around – by no means a given).

Meanwhile, Iran’s cooler establishment heads are desperately concerned about the possibility of Western attack or at the very least increased Western sanctions. Many of their current policies are a response to the question, what do we need to do if the West attacks? It was no coincidence that their latest missile tests were on the 28th September. They were making a point. 28th of September was the Day of Atonement (Yom Kippur).

Earlier this year, as an insurance policy to beef up their deterrent, they ordered state of the arts anti-aircraft missiles from Russian arms brokers for their domestic use. Simultaneously (and as an additional deterrent) they ordered North Korean weapons, RPGs and the like, for supply to their allies in Iraq and Lebanon.

Then something odd happened. Gazans and Iranians in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) who had long acted as the conduit for money to Gaza and weapons to Lebanon were suddenly arrested and deported by the UAE government.

Iran was angry and said so.

Sanctions for Settlements

Then the concept was mooted of a trade off between sanctions on Iran and the settlement freeze on the West Bank. The idea was detailed in a London Guardian article which suggested that the Europeans could extract concessions on West Bank settlements from Israel’s Premier Netanyahu, in return for offering their support for the tough sanctions on Iran that Israel favours. This newspaper article was noted in senior circles in Tehran and caused consternation. Especially as Obama himself, has indicated that Israel-Palestinian peace has to be viewed in the broader Middle East context.

That consternation was to be further exacerbated in the following days. The Israeli government discovered that a Russian ship allegedly carrying timber was in fact carrying the smuggled Russian made missile defence systems. Israel embarrassed the Russians (who immediately pretended it was nothing to do with their government but was a private initiative) into instructing their own navy to seize the ship and its consignment of arms off the African coast and take it back home.

Things now went from bad to worse for the Iranians as at almost the same moment the government of the UAE seized a North Korean ship laden with small arms in the Arabian Gulf. A UAE plane full of weapons was stopped in India on 6th September on its way to China – presumably the same cache that came from the Iran-bound ship being returned to the sender.

There was a time when Iran could depend on the United Arab Emirates. Generally the emirates of Abu Dhabi and Dubai have had vastly different policies when it comes to Iran, Abu Dhabi's stance being much tougher whereas Dubai has always had an interest in keeping its immense smuggling and trading links with Iran flowing. Dubai always kept the government in Abu Dhabi in check. However, the economic collapse in Dubai and the Dubai bailout has made Dubai far more dependent on its neighbour Abu Dhabi and now it has to kowtow to Abu Dhabi’s hard-line policies on Iran. Hence the UAE’s shift in stance on Iran.

There may be another reason. A year ago an Iranian backed “Hizbollah” cell was raided in the United Arab Emirates. Three Emiratis were arrested along with two Palestinians. They were rumoured to be plotting to bring down the world’s tallest building, the “Burj Dubai” (due for completion on December 2nd 2009). Whether or not the Iranians would have been up for an Al Qaida style attack on their own doorstep is questionable and that story may be an intelligence agency feed. But what is certain is that the so-called Hizbollah cell was Iranian backed. Iran has many such sleeper cells in the Gulf ready to hit Western interests in the event of a war.

What does all this mean? In the first instance it means that Iran is being well and truly kicked while it is down. And perhaps that is a good thing. Maybe the West should follow up, seize the moment, and support the Iranian people by speaking more forcefully on human rights issues with regard to Iran. Maybe the West should distance itself from Iran and no longer seek discussions with Ahmadinejad’s government in quite such a supplicant fashion. Instead the West could take a longer view and begin to support the credible opposition that now exists in Iran. Most Iranians were disgusted by the West’s failure to offer anything more than nominal support of the most grudging kind in these most difficult times to the Iranian opposition. Some of the Western actions, like removing opposition spokesman Mohsen Sazegarah from Voice of America when he started to give instructions to protesters, can at best only be regarded as grossly stupid. At worst the Voice of America fiasco is an indication of a clumsy attempt to placate the Iranian establishment at the expense of the Iranian people. Clumsy because Voice of America is noted for its diatribes against the Iranian government. Meanwhile, Western governments themselves keep their mouths shut as the show trials go on and ordinary citizens are abused by the Basiij. When the West does open its mouth it is to endlessly carp on about the nuclear issue.

And Gaza too?

And is it sensible to kick Gaza whilst it is down? There must be some sort of valve for that little pressure cooker. Be careful, sow the wind and you reap the whirlwind. Now that the whole Arab world is on board with the Gaza crack down, there may be no way left for Iran to smuggle money to Gaza. Watch them starve at your peril. Our incompetent current efforts in Afghanistan and formerly in Iraq have already helped radicalise many Muslims. Though the governments of the Arab World may delight in seeing Hamas governed Gazans in discomfort, Arab populations are less tadpole like in their attitudes. Governments are all head and no heart, like tadpoles. Peoples are the reverse. Gaza is a cause celebre and there are many dangers in making Gazan life too tough. Too much pressure on Gaza has already made Fatah unelectable in the West Bank (where Hamas retains some of the popularity it has lost in Gaza, though recent reforms have strengthened the Fatah position). Too much pressure on Gaza may also start a domino process that brings down the Egyptian government and ends who knows where.

Looking ahead

So what then is the way forward? The one consensus view at the NCF’s recent Swiss conference was that more should be done to promote the Arab Initiative for peace with Israel (formerly know as the Abdullah Plan). Both Palestinians and Israelis present at that conference agreed that what was needed was the formation of a prominent international group to:

a. support the implementation of a final agreement based on the Arab Peace Initiative
b. initiate and advise a public information campaign on the ground in Israel and Palestine on the benefits of a two-state solution
c. encourage international cooperation among all parties

In the absence of any other takers we at the NCF will try to adopt that mantle. Now is a good time. Tamar Herman’s recent issue of the “Peace Index” notes that a large majority (72%) of Israelis believe that from Israel’s standpoint today, the need to find a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is very urgent or moderately urgent, compared to only 24% who do not see it that way. It is important to emphasize that the sense of urgency about resolving the conflict is expressed by a clear majority on all sides of the political spectrum, in the Right, Center, and Left camps, though this majority is larger on the Left (82%) than on the Center (79%) and Right (66%).

Practical Measures

At a practical level, the old chestnut of seeking Palestinian / Palestinian peace remains on the fire. How then do we go about that? Well there is one simple answer that remains untried: the release of Palestine’s Nelson Mandela, Mr Marwan Barghouti. Jailed on a murder charge most regard as spurious, Barghouti is Palestine’s Messianic leader in waiting. He is currently serving five life sentences in Israel. An affable bubbly man with an endearing humility and very clear, if hardline, views on peace process issues, he is the one prominent Fatah member also respected by Hamas.

When I say Barghouti is hardline I mean that he makes no secret of his opinion that settlers in the occupied West Bank are legitimate targets whereas citizens in the State of Israel within its pre 67 borders are not legitimate targets. On other matters he is more mainstream. He believes in peace. He believes in the recognition of Israel. He believes in a two state solution.

He remains the only potentially unifying figure on the current Palestinian scene. And it is within Israel’s gift to release him, possibly as part of a new German sponsored deal on the release of Israeli Corporal Gilad Shalit from his Gaza prison.

Long term peace

When it comes to the Middle East Peace Process, there’s no immediate around the corner solution. Israel is so proud that it announces new settlement building even if there is no new settlement building (the latest announcement - by Barak as it happens - is a re-announcement of work already announced by former premier Olmert). In this atmosphere dogged with short term agendas is there likely to be an instant solution of the kind the West favors? There was no breakthrough by Mitchell in his latest round of shuttle diplomacy (nor is he likely to fair any better in the next round scheduled to start this coming week). Surprised? Whilst the Palestinians remain at odds with each other and the West continues to have no clear vision, a long term peace process is the only game in town.

Prioritise the sexy issues

But when it comes to buying into a long term peace process, Gilad Sher, Barak’s chief negotiator at Camp David, does not agree. He told the N.C.F. this summer, “If there is no peace in ten years, there won’t be any peace, ever. It is never the right time, always the wrong leadership, never the right circumstances, is it not!”

Gilad envisions an agenda that involves kicking off with inter-faith dialogue, as a sort of pre-negotiation warm up. Then dealing with the refugee issue. Then with Israel / Palestine territorial issues. Then wider regional peace issues.

Not a bad approach. But you could put a slightly different spin on things, emphasising the need to put the toughest issues at the top of the list and get them out of the way. And the toughest issues are:

1. Jerusalem
2. Refugees

The main swathe of territorial issues are easily resolved in the wake of agreement on the tough issues. For years we’ve been kicking the can down the road. Now is the time to bite the bullet and start the process that leads to peace.

Multi-channelled peace

And what that means is that we all take responsibility. I remember what happened to Shaul Zadka’s Israel-Palestine Journalists Association with its office out behind the American Colony Hotel in Jerusalem. It did well in the post Oslo years, to start with. Then it closed because it lost its funding. As did numerous other small initiatives. That’s because bodies like the E.U. will fund peace process stuff when things are going well. When things are going badly they think, “What’s the point?”

However, the converse is what’s necessary. Extra effort in the bad times - from us all. There is this myopic view that unless the United States of America is up for it, there’s no peace process. The USA can’t do it on its own. It is encouraging to see Germany taking a role on prisoner negotiation. At various times various countries including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, Jordan, Switzerland and Norway have taken significant roles. It is a bit disappointing to see much of the rest of the West sitting back and adopting a “Leave it to Obama” policy at present. Obama may be the Saviour but he still needs disciples.

And it’s not just governments. The rest of the world including second track organisations, like ourselves, journalists, businessman, mainstream think tanks and so on, all have their roles to play. Peace in the Middle East will remain a chimera if it is to be a top down process. The populations of the Middle East must be engaged.

End Multilateralism

There is one essential mantle of the Bush era that we must cast aside, however, if we are to enable peace on earth. We must end multilateralism.

This card was played with greatest effect in regard to Gaza in recent years. The Gazans went and voted in Hamas along with the Palestinians on the West Bank (who did the same). And we decided not to punish the West Bankers. Just the Gazans. Ungrateful lot. We gave them democracy, so the least they could do is vote in the people we wanted. They didn’t so we set the three pre-conditions. We told Gaza it would starve unless Hamas agreed to:

1. Recognise Israel
2. Recognise The Oslo agreements
3. Renounce violence

Of course the people of Gaza would no doubt happily agree. But not their Hamas leadership which had been troubled by the responsibilities of government and were now offered an easy way out. They could do nothing except remain in power in Gaza, and blame the West for their plight.

And our one cardinal sin was to make this a unilateral policy. We invented something called “The Quartet” which consisted of the United Nations, the United States, the European Union, and Russia and we got the Quartet to agree to adopt a collective policy on the peace process and all sign up to the three conditions.

Which was fatal. Fatal for Gaza anyhow.

Recognition for Recognition

The most exciting new game in town is the statement by Palestinian Premier Salam Fayad that Palestine will make a unilateral declaration of independence within two years. They should have done so a decade ago. Israel itself declared independence in 1948 with no defined borders.

And there in lies an opportunity. Major Western nations like Britain, France, Germany and indeed the United States, could set down the conditions on which they would recognise such a state and do so now. And there is no need for a swathe of preconditions. Just one really. Recognition for recognition. Israelis would like Palestinians to recognise the Jewish character of the Israeli state. Ultimately, once a Palestinian state is established, that could and should happen. But for now what is needed is that the Palestinians simply recognise Israel, in the same way that the rest of the international community does. If a majority of the Palestinian Parliament recognise Israel, we should in turn recognise the new Palestinian State. Why not? It would surely get the ball rolling.

And getting the ball rolling is what we are doing here, as part of a considered long term process. The days of instant knee jerk gratification in Mid East peacemaking are over. But nobody’s told the Americans – which may, on reflection, be just as well. The world needs a little hope and who’s to gainsay Obama? Miracles can happen after all.

Walk in the Light

2009-09-27T10:02:00.001Z

"Keep your face to the sunshine and you cannot see the shadows."

Helen Keller1880-1968, Author

2009-09-19T22:12:00.000Z

Sweet Mary, Mother of God

Wandering through Iraq – Back to Baghdad

2009-04-05T22:19:00.002Z

These extensive notes are the NINTH in a series. They are strictly confidential. The Next Century Foundation team for Iraq on this occasion was Ambassador Mark Hambley (Trustee), William Morris (Secretary General), Elizabeth Durnford (Research Director), Ranj Alaaldin (Iraq Research Specialist).

22 November 2008: We were back in Baghdad, our last full day in Iraq, and we’ve had a tight agenda. We started by making the enormously difficult journey in from the Red Zone to the Green Zone in Baghdad. Eventually we managed to access this cramped prison in which the international community are confined.

Andrew Gilmour, Head of the United Nations Political Team in Iraq and Deputy Head of the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI)

Our delegation had quite a collection of members by the time we reached Andrew Gilmour. As well as our basic team of four, we were assisted by Ranj’s uncle who was helping us with the translation and the pass we needed to get through the Green Zone; also Raid (Captain) Mohammed who handled our security, and finally Sabah Al Obaidi who runs our Baghdad office. All of us crammed into the United Nations board room for a discussion on what we would do to monitor elections in 2009. We were one of the few groups -- indeed probably the only group within the international monitors – who were willing to cover the red zone in Iraq without being embedded with US soldiers.

We told UNAMI that, if the funding came through, we would put together four teams of international observers. The only question being whether the UN could deliver what we wanted from them which was one sample set of results from one province chosen by us at random once the vote had been counted. This request was made because the most serious election frauds in Iraq in 2005 took place in the Baghdad count. They assured us they could do this.

We also raised concerns over the small number of displaced persons, particularly the refugees from the disputed areas. These refugees are largely from persecuted small minorities like the Yezidis or Christians and would theoretically be able to vote in their home towns. Most would find it easier to accept assimilation into the regions to which they had fled, the tragedy being that this made ethnic cleansing supremely effective. Finally, we raised concerns about the large number of political parties’ representatives being allowed into the polling stations. They took note of our concerns but said there was little they could do.

Dr Haithem Al Husseini, Political Adviser to Sayyid Abd al-Aziz Al Hakim (and also to Sayyid Amr Al Hakim

We left Andrew Gilmour and the United Nations and headed for a meeting being held under one of the bridges in Baghdad. It seems a peculiar meeting place but it was secure and everybody knew where it was. We had to sort a kidnapping problem for a friend, and we were enlisting the help of the office director and key political advisor to Sayyid Al Hakim, Dr Haithem. Once we all assembled under the bridge we moved to one of the ISCI safe houses in the Green Zone. .

Before enlisting his help in the kidnapping issue, we asked for his thoughts on one or two key points that were still confusing us. We asked him if Iraq is stable now. “Diyala, Mosul, and Kirkuk are still under the control of elements that might cause trouble,” he replied. “Otherwise the country is secure.”

Had the passing of the election law broken the alliance between the Shiites and Kurds? He shook his head, “It did not put much of a strain on the relationship between ISCI (the Islamic Supreme Council for Iraq) and the Kurds. Our friendship is good at the political level and at the personal level.”

We asked how he expected ISCI would do in the governorate elections. “We have candidates all round the country. We are going to have an alliance with Dawa in certain areas, particularly in Mosul, Salahaddin and Diyala. But not in the south. The people are more experienced in the south, and we can campaign there on our own.

We then said that we were very confused by the situation in the Misan Governorate and asked what had been going on there. “The security operations in Misan were against outlaws,” said Dr Haithem.

“The government should not view these security operations as a tool to win votes. ISCI has its own opinion regarding (Prime Minister al-Maliki’s) Majlis Al-Isnad. Our concern is that using the tribes in this way may create an internal division within the tribes themselves. By forming Majlis Al Isnad and giving them money, you are creating another power block within the tribes and contributing to friction between various factions.”

We asked about the vote on SOFA (the status of the US Forces agreement). “Sistani wanted this agreement to serve Iraq, which is why he demanded electoral consensus between the Shiites, the Sunnis and the Kurds on this one issue. This we have achieved.”

And finally, we asked about federalism. “The nine governorates of central and southern Iraq all enjoy a similar environment. We would like to see one district formed from these nine governorates to create a strong region in the middle and the south. Having said that, separate areas are not much use unless we provide them with more power and authority. If we are going have regions, we need strong regions. In any case this is only a proposal at this stage.”

Dr Sabah Al Obaidi, Head of the NCF Office in Iraq

Whilst Dr Haithem moved to the other room to help us with our problem, we had a little time to spare to talk to Dr Sabah from our Baghdad office to get his reflections on the present political situation in Iraq. Sabah belongs to the Abna Rafidayn (the “sons of the Two Rivers”) party headed by former Deputy Prime Minister (and, briefly, Defence Minister), Salam Zobeyi.

Dr Sabah said that there are three or four million Shiites living in Sadr city so the Muktada Al Sadr vote is far from finished. “In Ahmadiyah, the Sunnis will win. Baghdad will definitely have a Shiite majority on the council but only just. Dawa will get a few votes but not many. Salam Zobeyi and Iyad Allawi will do well.”

Dr Sabah added some interesting pointers. “In Samarah (the capital of Salahaddin) the Abna Rafidayn list should do well. Major Mazin, the Sahwa leader, has joined Zobeyi’s list. Tawafuk is still there but is unpopular because of its crimes. They are regarded as the main reason for the displacement of Sunnis.. Salam Zobeyi is stronger now.

“The people in Baghdad don’t like the Sadrists any more. Hence many of the Sadrists will stand as independents. Some Shiites will switch to Hakim’s party (ISCI).”

“Jaafari, al-Maliki, Al Hakim, and the Saddrists have all changed the names of their political lists since 2005, which should tell you something.

“Most of the Fadilla support is in Basra where they are strong but not as strong as Hakim.

“Tawafuk have their greatest strengths in Baghdad, Salahaddin, and Ramadi. But, in general, they are now they much weaker than they were in 2005.

“Salam Zobeyi has joined with Nujayfi (a virulently anti-Kurdish Sunni parliamentarian) in Mosul, and there they will do well.”

With the benefit of hindsight, we can now see that both the Sadrists and Malaki, i.e. those at the political extremes, did well. Those in the middle like Ibna Rafidayn did less well.

Dr Hadi Al Amri MP, Head of the Badr Organisation

It was far later, close to dark, when we went for our next meeting.

The Badr brigade was the military wing of ISCI and a supremely efficient fighting machine. However, they have handed in their weapons and either moved into politics or joined the security forces. The Badr brigade, now called the Badr organisation, has become fully political. One could compare this to the IRA in Ireland. The Badr leader Hadi Al Amri is a member of parliament. We met him at his home in the ISCI compound in the Red Zone, quite close to our Jadariyah hotel.

Hadi has deep dark eyes and is swarthy, which makes for an almost intimidating first impression. But in reality he is quite likable. “The heart of democracy is the ballot box,” he began, “but we believe that if there is no transparency, this will be regarded as dirty election. We need international monitors to observe the vote.

“With regard to the Americans staying on, there is no real objection to SOFA except from the Sadrists. The United Iraq Alliance (UIA) and the Kurds both agree to the SOFA. The Sunnis have no objections to the agreement, but they have fears about what will happen when the US withdraws, not the other way around. They fear if the US withdraws, they will be sidelined. They look for guarantees that the prime minister will not exceed his authority. So the UIA are in favour of the SOFA, the Kurds are in favour and some of the Sunnis are in favour, while some are not so sure. Even when the Shiites are in favour; they say this may not be the best solution, but it is the best choice.”

We said that all of our delegation agreed with SOFA as did most everybody we had met but your Secretary General was the only person who had reservations about the signing of SOFA. He laughed. “In some ways, it is the best answer. The alternative would have been to extend the US stay on the same basis as before which would allow the US a free hand without any time limit. The religious leaders emphasized that there had to be a consensus in favour of SOFA, which was reasonable.”

We asked for his views on Kirkuk. “I am not sure about Dawa,” he answered. “But ISCI believes that consensus and reconciliation are the best solution, giving all the people their rights. We refuse the absence of any part of their rights. But you cannot force a solution. Forcing solutions is the beginning of a bigger problem. It would be best if Kirkuk became an independent region. There are Kurds, Turkomans, Arabs and Christians. This region should manage itself by itself. Our advice for our Kurdish brothers is not to demand Kirkuk’s absorption in Kurdistan. At the beginning the Kurds said that we should delay the provincial election throughout Iraq until article 140 was satisfied. We refused. Then the Turkomans and Sunni Arabs came and said postpone the elections in Kirkuk. I said what is the point? In the end we agreed to postpone the Kirkuk elections for a while. The Turkoman and our Arab brothers claim that the electoral registration is false. And that their big brothers from outside (the Kurds) have been coming in. Thus we are for postponing the election, so that:

1. We should re-check that electoral registration is for all and take action if necessary
2. We should change local government in such a way to ensure that everyone takes part

“That’s why I emphasized that, when it came to the election, it was vital that we had proper checks of the electoral register. We need clean and transparent elections. Kirkuk is an important place, and the tension there is less severe than it used to be. I personally have made a lot of effort with our Sunni brothers there. I advised them to be peaceful. It is better there than before.”

We asked how everyone would do in the elections. “There are two distinct elections: The local elections now and the national elections on the 15th December 2009. We believe in the local elections. We believe the Sunnis will participate widely in Nineveh, Salahaddin, Tikrit and Baghdad. They will have wide participation ,but it won’t affect our popularity. We could have competition in Baghdad, but generally our supporters come from a different group. The local elections are important, because the result will give the regions greater authority. The federal or general elections won’t be based on sectarianism; national issues will have greater priority. Our past history means sectarianism is a bad idea, nationalism should beat sectarianism; we hope nationalism will win, and that the campaign and electoral lists for the national elections will be based on practical programmes.

“We will campaign. We will campaign on behalf of the list. In the past elections, the voter favoured sectarianism over nationalism. At that time Al Qaidah were killing any Shiite because he was Shiite. Even the dead did not survive. They used to behead the dead. A lot of Sunnis were killed unfairly, as well; many innocents were killed. That’s why sectarianism is ripe. That’s why in the coming election we had to write our manifesto focusing on national issues. I believe Iraqis should be educated. The government has done a lot. People know that lack of security is the reason we have not been able to deliver on services. People know it takes time to rebuild infrastructure.

“The electors remember the seventies and, later, when we were bombed three times in three wars. Rebuilding needs foreign companies, but they won’t risk the lives of their employees The security situation is slowly improving. Until, June half of the south was controlled by the outlaws. Iraqi companies could not work in the west or the south.

“The USA said that the elections were to happen in 2009, and we will be there. Though I am not satisfied with our performance and even though we will do well in the elections, whether or not that’s what Americans want to see.

“Our position is similar to that of the Gaullists in the UK during the Second World War. When they returned to France, they were no longer militia. We are the same. We did not carry arms for the government. We carried arms against Saddam. Since the fall of Saddam, we set aside our arms and participated in the political process. We refused to be called ‘militia.’ We are “mujahideen.” After the fall of Saddam, we put down our arms unilaterally; we came and participated in the army and the police.

“The position of Sahwa is curious. This was a group fighting alongside Al Qaidah against the Iraqis. Then they were turned and recruited to fight on our side. This is a British concept. Anyway, we should contain them and use them in the armed forces. We accept them as a reward for the efforts against Al Qaidah.

“As for Majlis Al Isnad (the Prime Minister’s “support councils”), there is no need for Isnad. Anbar and Salahaddin are all secure and don’t need Majlis al Isnad. In Diyala and Ninevah, if we need help, we will ask the tribes to participate in the government. We told the Prime Minister that there was no law that permitted Isnad, and he had no legal cover for what he was doing, especially as what he was doing was unnecessary. If you want to get legal cover, it will be impossible. Isnad will not live. Everyone has a right to take advantage of an alliance with another organisation. Dawah could create relationships on this basis.”

We asked him to tell us about situation in one or two specific provinces. He said, “Take Diyala. Frankly in Diyala, the majority of Sahwa are Sunni. In Diyala those who became Sahwa used to sympathise with Al Qaidah. Even in Baghdad the majority of Sahwa are Sunni. Alliances have happened. We have made a kind of an alliance with the Sunni Islamist Party. But this is coordination with them, rather than participation on a united electoral list.

“As for the Sadrists, they will not do as well as they did before in Wasit. But in Amara in Misan Governorate, they are the majority. There, I believe, they have 14 seats and their alliances give them the majority, and the governor is one of their people. But I doubt they will do as well as they did before in Misan because their mistakes have made them less popular. Nonetheless, the people’s allegiance is to Sayyid Mukhtadr. Due to the current situation, his vote may be weaker but it is still there. Mukhtadr’s position will be challenged.

“But none of us can predict what will happen in the elections. I was watching the elections in Iran. There was no comparison between Rafsanjani and Ahmadinajad. I was astonished by the huge numbers voting for Ahmadinajad. But we are not Iran.

“The Sadrists don’t have an identified list. This is a tactic, some say. If they lose, they can say they did not participate. I believe the Sadrists have been wise not to participate in their own name.”

Dr Fuad Massum MP, Political coordinator for the Kurdish Parties

We left the head of the Badr organisation and headed back across town into the Green Zone for a meeting with Dr Fuad Massum, a leading and much revered Kurdish parliamentarian, who handles political coordination between the PUK and the KDP. This affable senior politician was extremely welcoming. We started by asking him about the US presence in Iraq. “Those who say the US should leave now are in a minority. Most think they should stay. Either under the terms of SOFA or with an extended UN mandate. Those who are dissatisfied with Maliki say extend the mandate. Maliki is getting more aggressive. Most people say the security issue should remain in US hands. President Talabani wrote to all Sunni MPs to get them to support this treaty. We have made personal promises to push this through and tried to make alliances with other fractions.”

We asked about the committees that had been set up between the political factions to examine issues dividing the Kurds from the central government including that of Kirkuk. “The five committees are supervised by Talabani, Adel Abdul–Mahdi and Hoshar Zaybari. Talabani holds meetings regularly. They have agreed that Kirkuk be postponed until certain steps have taken place. But we do hope to see elections in 2009. Kirkuk is not just an Iraqi issue. Turkey regards the return of Kirkuk to Kurdistan as a threat. They are of the opinion that if Kirkuk becomes a part of Kurdistan, it will give them the means to become an independent state. We are trying to convince them otherwise.

“There are other areas that have disputes under Article 140 of the constitution. It is not just Kirkuk. There is a deep dispute between Anbar and Karballa. Nearly 50,000 square kilometres of Karballa were given to Anbar Governorate under Saddam and Anbar won’t give the territory back. The presidential council should have given instructions for the resolution of this issue. But their decision must be unanimous. That is why the presidential council is unable to reach a decision. Vice President Adel Abdul-Mahdi (a Shiite) says send it back to Karballa. Vice President Hashimi (a Sunni) refuses. They are trying to somehow find a compromise. UNAMI head, DeMistura, has a project in hand about this matter.”

We expressed concern about the miserable conditions in some of the disputed areas. “I agree that there are a number of areas that are not the part of KRG (Kurdish Regional Government) and are neglected by the central government. They are in bad shape. On the other hand Kirkuk and Basra are oil cities, and they are neglected as well.”

We asked whether there was any prospect for the type of grand deal that would involve the sacrifice of the Kurdish region’s separately garnered oil money in return for Kirkuk, or was the Kurdish leadership too fond of the oil money to contemplate such a deal. “We don’t mind surrendering oil for soil in a deal where by we give the oil to Baghdad and get the land.” He expressed the opinion that, “Clearly if Kirkuk goes back to the KRG it will not have the same status as Arbil, Dohuk and Suleimaniyah.”

We asked him to give us his assessments of things that are likely to go on in the January elections in some of the governorates. “In Salahaddin, the majority will be Sunni. Last time they did not participate. If the Kurds get four or five seats, this would be good.

“In Diyala, ISCI is strong and the Islamic party has strength among the Sunnis and the Kurdish Alliance is strong. Majlis Al Isnad has not established itself effectively. And the military operation there was not successful, because they started with the Kurds. There had not been one act of terrorism in Khanaqin that would make the use of the armed forces necessary. The US played an important role in keeping the Iraq army out of Khanaqin, or there would have been a bloodbath. Diyala borders Iran. The Diyala Shiites and the Iranian Shiites have a similar background. The government did not respect the special case in the area.

“Until now we have supported Prime Minister al-Maliki and his policies. It was an agreement between the Kurdish Alliance and ISCI and Dawah that put Maliki into power. And he will remain in power. But he has fought with Sunnis in Ramadi and with the Sadrists in Baghdad. Now he is trying to fight with the Kurds.”

We returned to England and America respectively shortly after the events in this report. We will distribute our translation of the full results of the Iraq provincial elections immediately (the final results were released in Baghdad last week). We will then distribute the final report on our role as election monitors in Iraq after the next series of reports on Gaza.

Wandering through Iraq – Karbala

2009-04-05T21:19:00.001Z

21 November 2008: We head off on the road to Karbala and are stopped at every checkpoint. Raid (Captain) Mohammed and our security team get angry about it but we don’t mind the delay. Blocked at an Iraq Army checkpoint whilst other traffic is waved through, Ambassador Hambley dozes, but Raid Mohamed is chain-smoking and stressed out. The place bristles with guns as he has his own men fanned out alongside our vehicles. Given Iraq’s history of kidnappings by the security forces, the frisson of tension is real, but the Iraq Army are pretty good guys by and large. They’re just doing their job. Usually it’s us who get clear passage whilst everyone else waits. So all’s fair. Iraq is probably the best fun in the world when it comes to boys’ own stuff, so we hunker down to catch a doze while we can.

Hamid Sahib Mohamed

As we swing into Karbala, we make straight for the headquarters of the Badr Brigade. There we are met by Hamid Sahib Mohamed who immediately says, “We offer you our support.” He goes on to explain, “The Badr Brigade struggled against the former regime and we hope that we can now go into politics. There are 76 political entities and lists here in Karbala. Some individual lists and some party lists. Here, next time, we will have 27 seats so we face severe competition. Hopefully the election will be transparent and so far, we can’t see anyone wanting to win at another’s expense. We have two main entities here:

ISCI
and Dawa with their alliances

“There are some other lists. They’re not that heavy and strong, but they are there.

“One of our concerns though, is that each list will be permitted two political observers in each polling station. That means we could have 150 political party observers cramming themselves into the room in which the ballot takes place at 202 polling stations but the security side looks solid – we have a plan to secure the polling stations, and the security forces will not interfere.

He gave us the list of the existing governorate council with 41 representatives:

3 for SCIRI / Badr
3 for Dawa
3 for Sadr
5 for Fadila
11 independents
1 communist
1 Amal Organisation (workers Islamic)
1 Doctor (Abbas al-Asnawi)
1 tribal personality
12 other independents

Hamid then said, “90% of the independents are with ISCI. The Head of the Council, Sayyid Abdul Al al-Yaseri is one of the independents with ISCI affiliations, so we have to make deals after the result. But the governor is from Dawa.

“Disappointment does exist about the Islamist parties. The Sadrists hurt people. Their representation was ten percent. They’ll get maybe only one percent next time.

“And Dawa has not delivered. Nor has the Governor. But Dawa went in for illegal activities by creating the Isnad (support councils). Others will have a better showing.

“The Iraqi people understand there are no independents, they understand politics. They understand what the Sadrists have done on health. Or what Dawa has done on education. Badr haven’t done the same. Iraqis know what Badr and ISCI stand for. Sayyid Abd al-Aziz al-Hakim stands for abiding by the law. We believe in serving people, not serving personal or party interests.

“As for the “majlis al-Isnad”, up to today not one of them has interfered in Karbala. Badr is still the main force.

“When there have been problems between Sadrists and our protection force – only Badr protects the people. When there is a major event, Badr puts 2,000 women at checkpoints and 4,000 men. No one else does this. We don’t need Isnad. Dawa is weak in Karbala, but given that the Prime Minister was born in Karbala, he’s tried to take that as his new platform. When Badr tried to put branches in different provinces, that was opposed -- despite all our efforts to support the community in Diyala and Tikrit etc. What’s the difference?

“We wouldn’t mind if Isnad interfered here legally and within the law. Badr surrendered all its arms to the Ministry of the Interior. We have sacrificed everything for our country and for the sake of Iraq. Have you ever heard of Badr taking advantage of its position?”

We asked about the Dawa Governor.

“Dr. Akil is young and lacks experience. He belongs to al-Jaafari’s side of Dawa. He delayed Malaki one hour at a checkpoint. I believe we need true leaders on the ground, people who can deliver. After the last election we had two candidates for governor. One from Dawa and one from Majlis (i.e. SCIRI – the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq - now officially renamed ISCI – the Islamic Supreme Council for Iraq - though most people still use the old name). The Governor offered every council member $5,000 and a box of sweets! So Akil got 21 votes and the other guy got 20.”

He told us that in Karbala, the Sadrist factions are:

· Al Risalyoun (The Messagers)
· Al Fourat (The Euphrates)
· Undercover with Jaafari
· Ad-Distouri (The Constitutionalists, headed by the current Interior Minister)

But Hamid says, “All will do badly. Risalyoun is a known name – it might do a little better than the others.

“As for the Sadrist vote elsewhere – The Sadrists will make a strong showing in Misan. In Wasit it’s different. There they’ll have a poor performance.

“As for Isnad, it’s difficult to predict. Financial deals with the tribes may persuade voters to vote the other way. But Iraq is not like the USA. Voters are not that fickle.”

Sheikh Sabah Al Jinabi, Head of Reconstruction Committee (independent)

We are joined by Sheikh Sabah. He welcomed our effort and said that he likes all we’re trying to do. Then he gave us his own thoughts and priorities.

“Reconstruction is an issue affected by many variables,” he said. “Security is key. Without security foreign companies are unable to come here. There are others with different agendas, who want to stop reconstruction. Yes, it is an election issue. As for services, standards are below expectation but there is some progress. Sewage networks, roads, schools. Basic services are easy compared to the provision of electricity.

“Unemployment is exaggerated because of government appointments and private sector jobs, plus new rules on social security. The most disadvantaged 20% get $100 per month and the various Islamic organisations and the NGOs help them get by.

“The other thing which one can be sure about is “direction.” If the religious leaders say ‘Go and Vote’ you can expect a big turnout as a result.

“The situation with the refugees here is interesting. Karbala is one of the best governorates when it comes to the reception of displaced people. They are welcomed here. Delegates from the governorates went to meet them. We ignored illegal construction and didn’t destroy their camps as we used a policy of ‘turning a blind eye’. There are a lot of these people employed in the private sector. Plus they get a lot of help from the ‘Hawza’ under Grand Ayotallah Sistani.

“But the displaced from Iran are a different issue. They are not homeless, because these refugees are coming back to their homeland and to their families, coming back to their own land and houses. Yes, there are problems, because the government or others take their property. There is an office which has been set up to deal with this matter. Plus another office that gives land to displaced people and civil servants.”

We said the people in the Ninevah Plain had trouble because their land had been distributed to others by the government.

“That was in Alawi’s time when they followed up on a law that distributed land to the military. A thousand plots were distributed around here, of which 900 were fraudulent. Currently, the land being distributed is 100% owned by the government. Not owned by private individuals and it is not agricultural land. These are plots designated for house building.”

After the round of political meetings ended, they took us around to the spot where Hussein, the great Shiite martyr, was buried. He died in battle. The tradition is that he was the standard bearer and they chopped off his right hand, so he held the flag with his left until they chopped off his left, so he used what remained of his arms to hold the flag to his chest until they chopped off his head. The day we visited was a Friday, Prayer day. So the place was packed. Our guards, who were ex-Badr Brigade, linked arms round us and guided us through the bustling courtyard towards the great mosque, tiled all over like the mosques in Najaf, in massive slabs of gold. In front of us a vast male voice choir, hundreds strong, assembled in regimented lines and sang “Hussainum” (Our Hussain) to a hypnotic rhythm and beat their chests in unison. More than impressive. This was emotional and powerful. Quite beautiful really.

. . . Another report from Iraq follows shortly

Wandering through Iraq – Babil and Najaf

2009-04-05T20:14:00.003Z

20 November 2008: We head for the South leaving Baghdad early and travel in a convoy at high speed. Guns ahead of us and guns behind us, ready for any eventuality as we swing out of Baghdad across the double-bridge. The liquid gold of a dusky sun rises into a dark streaked sky. Here and there are fields of date palms and the straggled suburbs of South Baghdad. The destruction just to the south of Baghdad is staggering, the scars of the blitzkrieg are everywhere in a wasted and amazingly abused landscape. Yet this place is also exquisitely beautiful, battered and raped as it is by both its own rulers and the forces of great powers seeking hegemony in this region: Iran, America and Britain.

Everything is dusty. The air is dusty. The roads are dusty. The date palms are dusty. It gives the landscape a gentle, pastel hew with the occasional bright spark of green from the occasional well-irrigated field. And yet amidst the barbwire and concrete of war, life just goes on. The vehicles are battered. The people are battered. But they live life exuberantly in a state of collective, cowed defiance that is difficult to describe, but that I am sure must have affected the people in London in the era of World War II. This is a happy place where life is what you can make it. It is a place resurgent and reborn, coming out of its darkest days; it is a place filled with cautious and supremely frail hope. It’s a place to make you cry, or feel something of the emotion that Jesus or Salahaddin must have felt when they first set their eyes on Jerusalem, for here, you too are a stranger in a sacred land.

H.E. Saleem Salih Mahdi Al-Meslmawe, The Governor of Babylon

Eventually our convoy swept into the little town of Hilla, the capital of the ancient governorate of Babil (Babylon). We drove through the little streets and pulled to a halt in an alley behind the Governor’s office. The governor’s majlis was the traditional huge oblong room with the Governor’s desk at one end and innumerable dignitaries, the great and good of Hilla, ranged along the sofas at the sides of the room to greet us as visitors and inspect the new curiosity that we were. The Governor opened with a speech as much to the rest of the room as to us:

“We want to recover and repair what the past has done. To demolish takes a short time, to rebuild takes longer. The elections are a new experience for Iraq. There will be strengths and weaknesses. This new era has negative and positive effects. Iraq has not ascended in a normal way like Westminster, step by step. At this early stage it needs much support. The international community will play a big role.

“In Babil, there are 32 party lists in addition to the individual list where one candidate is standing, and this is good proof that democracy has infiltrated Iraq. The people will accept the results of the election. The security situation in past elections was not stable. But despite the lack of security, the elections succeeded. Compare this year with three years ago; there is a big difference. Some electors are illiterate and will say they don’t know who they are voting for. This gets more complex as an issue under the new open list system. We have better choice but not without its problems. We encourage wider participation from the public. The election empowers the people.”

We asked him whether the governorate council remained much as it had been when first elected four years ago. “There is not much change SCIRI (SCIRI - the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq - is the old name for ISCI – the Islamic Supreme Council for Iraq) has the strongest presence in the governorate, and many independents will join them. Alliances shift. I was part of a coalition that had just four members, but now I have become part of SCIRI (ISCI). My small coalition was called list 310: The Faithful Iraqis Association.”

We asked him what the problems of Babil were. “Security is our main concern. Babil is not unique. We think reconstruction and security go side by side. Reconstruction gives more employment. People who are hungry and unemployed become terrorists. A lot of foreign companies don't come here to Iraq as they believe what they see in the media and think it is too dangerous.”

The governor indicated a couple of people who were introduced to us as responsible for housing. He asked them to speak. They said, “Here we have two housing projects, each for 540 units funded by the Central Government. Our next project will be funded by the investment commission. 140,000 housing units are required, but scarcely more than 1,000 are being built. For the past 35 years, there have been no housing projects despite the continuing growth in the population.”

The Governor added a comment. “In Iraq, the elections are not really about who to blame. The people don’t want to blame any one political party for the current state of affairs. They won’t really blame the current Iraqi government. They realise that this government is only going to be around for a very short time.”

The Governor indicated two other colleagues of his from the Hilla Water Board and asked them to speak.

“During Saddam’s time,” they said, “30% of the water was useable. Babil has a large number of villages all of which need water. Water projects started here in 2006 onwards. So far we have increased water flow from 100 cubic metres from per hour to 500 cubic metres per hour, so from 30% of what’s required to 60% of what’s required. Now we have a big water project called Hashmiyah”

If we had known then what we know now, we might have given these guys a harder time. It seems that someone bought cheap chlorine earlier this year and used it to purify the water supply in Hilla. The result was a cholera outbreak which is still causing trouble and which reflects badly on ISCI.

The governor turned to a couple of his colleagues and asked some of them from the agricultural department to contribute something.

They explained that, “The Governorate of Babil is 5,000 square kilometres, 70% of which is agricultural land. We grow wheat, sunflowers, corn and cotton. We also have 120,000 acres of dates. Our agricultural infrastructure was totally destroyed by Saddam. In the ensuing war (against Iran, 1980-88), much was neglected, and more than 100,000 acres of land was abandoned as men were taken to join the army. It will take an exceptional effort to re-fertilise this land. The Digla (the local name for the Tigris) used to have six billion cubic metres of water. Now it just carries one billion cubic metres. The reduction in river level waters affects us badly. Last year we had an additional drought problem which reduced the land area cultivated by 40%. This year we are cultivating 60% of the agricultural land we once used to cultivate, largely because of the lack of water.”

The governor called on some of the others responsible for the infrastructure.

They explained that in the past only 20% of Hillah had paved roads. “Until 2006 we had little or no budget from Baghdad or from NGOs for reconstruction. Then in 2006 we got a very large budget for reconstruction, very little of which came from central government directly. Most of the money came from the Regional Reconstruction Fund. Hilla used to be a beautiful place, but now we have all sorts of problems. For instance, the sewage system only caters for 7% of the city. We also get problems from the American Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT). They usually choose bad projects to fund, and they award their contracts to bad companies. There is no coordination, although during the past 18 months, the PRT has gotten a lot better than before.”

We asked the governor about the political make up of the present governing council. “I hold one seat, there are two communists, two Dawa party and six ISCI representatives. The rest are independent. But that does not reflect the true position, because the ratios have changed and many of the independents now owe their allegiance to ISCI making the ISCI the largest block in the council.”

“We have lots of problems between the Governorate and the Central Government in Baghdad, most of which have to do with authority. The Central Government does not obey Bremer’s Law on relationships with local government but has not put any new law in its place. The relationship between Baghdad and the Governorate is random and is entirely governed by the quality of the personal relationships. There were some improvements in 2007.”

Then we asked the Governor about the security issue which seemed to us to be of prime importance and he said, “We have Sahwa in northern Babil especially Jaysh Al Saqr (the Saqr Brigade is a notoriously violent, quasi-independent militia that has infiltrated the police force and has been responsible for much of the kidnapping in Baghdad in recent years). We have good relations with Sahwa. I personally mended the relationships with these people. They are still active. We are in discussion with them on how to handle security when the US pulls out.”

At this point we began to discuss the forthcoming election. The Governor said that Babil had 1,423 candidates on 76 lists. He explained that, “There are ten lists with single candidates and there are seven political entities on big lists and a further 59 smaller individual lists and local party lists. All these people are standing for a smaller Governorate Council with just 30 elected representatives. Every governorate has to have 25 seats for its first 500,000 population and then one further seat for each additional 200,000 people. But because there has been no census in Iraq, the people still use their ration coupons to register to vote; then they have to deal with the ballot paper which has a number instead of party and a symbol of the party name. As for the displaced people, refugees from other areas, they either must transfer their vote to the Babil list or register specially to vote as an absentee vote for the areas they have been thrown out of. We had a 45 day period in which we could register.”

It’s hard to imagine how anyone can know what to vote for with so many candidates. We discussed the seven big political entities which were on the list. He identified these as follows:

Dawa’s “State of the Law list”
Islamic Dawa Party (Maliki’s Dawa)
Islamic Dawa Party- Iraq Organisation
Tandhim al-Iraq
Feyli Kurds
Turkmen Islamic List
Independents

We turned to the matter of Maliki’s new election support councils or Majlis Al Isnad. “Anything outside the open constitution is unlawful. We want to build our institution. Isnad is not an effort to build.”

And who would win? His response was unequivocal. ISCI has worked hard in Hilla. They should win the majority in the Babil elections.

We had one last task before we left Hilla and Babil Province – the Governor wanted us to visit a building site. This was a new housing project of which they were all very proud. We were followed by hoards of journalists as we wandered round the new build tenements. It was quite an achievement – though just a drop in the ocean when compared to the huge housing problem that needs addressing in today’s Iraq.

The Holy Man

We left Babil and headed south for the town of Najaf where they lay on lunch for us in a massive meeting hall in the ancient City of Kufa (which in theory is a separate entity but is really a suburb of Najaf). This time we were ahead of the Governor who had not yet arrived as yet, but a holy man was waiting to welcome us, and we chatted about a wide range of issues.

We had heard that there had been anti-Kurdish demonstrations in Najaf to protest against the annexation of Najaf to Kirkuk region. This is strange as Najaf is many hundreds of miles away from Kirkuk, but the Sheikh confirmed that this had happened. “Each one has his own views on this matter. That might be the explanation. The Kurdish community is small, but even in Hilla the PUK and KDP have offices.”

We asked him why Ayatollah Sistani had not come out strongly in favour of ISCI. “Sistani is a father figure,” he said. “Sistani represents all Iraqis. For him to support one party negates what he stands for. At the same time Sistani promotes educated people. His object is to educate the people of Iraq. His message for education is directed at everybody.”

H.E. Al-Haj Assad Sultan Abu Gelal, The Governor of Najaf

At that point the Governor arrived, and we all fell upon the food which had been laid out on a large tablecloth on the floor. Later we relaxed over tea and chatted with the Governor. We started by asking the Governor about the assorted quasi-militia groups.

“We have the Awakening or Sahwa group,” he said. “We were concerned when they were established and talked to the US about it and insisted that there were no armed groups in the city. They agreed, and we now have a service based Sahwa. We had the same problem to deal with Maliki’s Majalis Al Isnad organisation. But we managed to sort it out and they are not armed in Najaf. Here again they are a service group.

“The Sadrists have a massive heritage here and a large community. But after Sayyid Moqtada took over, the violence made them unpopular. Today they no longer use the Sadrist movement as a political force.”

We asked about the degree to which there was a religious influence on the voters:

“Obviously, the Ayatollahs have their own significance and being able to have one of their names backing your party is a great help. Iraqi society is Islamic, and the voters do follow the religious leaders and are likely to vote for the candidate who is closer to their religious perspective. But Maliki has introduced a law which bans religious symbols in campaigning.”

We asked the Governor about the nature of the 41 seats in Najaf Governorate Council. He listed the political parties locally:

SCIRI (ISCI) 19
Dawa plus those allied to Dawa 11
Independents 4
Fadilla 2
Allawi 2
Tandhim al Iraq 2
The Future of Iraq 1

And what would the issues be in the elections?

The Governor thought that services would play a role. “Those who made big promises will have a problem. Obviously people are aware of the issues. Previously we had a closed election list but now it’s an open list. I will be standing on the SCIRI (ISCI) list, but I am not a member of SCIRI (ISCI). Others have done the same thing. It has no significance to our personal political stand.”

Another point was the various disputed areas in the south. He agreed, “Yes, we do have disputed areas. There was a part of Najaf that was given to Anbar but our composition is different here in Najaf, it is not important to us. However, the issue is different in Karbala - part of Karbala was taken and given to Anbar, and therefore it is an important issue.”

There had been suggestions, we said, that three provinces in the South might unite. Was there any support for the idea?

“It’s not necessarily a question of three provinces uniting. In any case each province will have to look at the issue individually. Basra started the process. However the majority of the south prefers to remain in one region comprising nine provinces. One very important election issue is that of authority. Do we want powerful local government or strong central government? The people are fed up with central government mismanagement and do not want to give too much power to Baghdad. Our constitution says we should have federal government. On the other hand Iraqis do not like weak central government so this is a difficult issue.”

On another issue entirely, we discussed whether ISCI was encouraging the return of refugees from Iran:

“Iraqis living in Iran come from many backgrounds. In Iran, there used be a huge Iraqi community, over a million; a lot of them came back already. Lately the Iranian Government counted the remaining Iraqis living in Iran and gave them white ID cards. According to the Iranians there are 104,000 Iraqis still living in Iran.”

Would ISCI be successful in the forthcoming elections?:

“Of course. You just have to look at the ISCI success in bringing stability and prosperity to Najaf. It’s a clear indication of the future success we will have.”

We climbed into our cars and left the governor’s office, but this time the governor accompanied us. He wanted to show us the nearby Kufa mosque, and it was a stunning sight. Those responsible for our protection fanned out around us and passed through the crowds. The mosque was awesome, almost magical. It was tiled with great slabs of gold and inside dazzlingly brilliant silver and glass was so bright that it made the eyes blink. In one far corner a small recess marked the spot where Imam Ali was praying when slain. Around the spot little medallions were carved with the words “I have won” in Arabic which were Imam Ali’s dying words, when he realised he had been slain whilst in prayer, and he was to become a martyr.

Sayyid Amar al-Hakim

Our next meeting was with our host, Sayyid Amar al-Hakim. A cheerful, young looking man whose ready smile and charming manner belied his charismatic personality. We met in his compound in downtown Najaf.

Sayyid Amr began with a narrative about the importance of the next election: “The next election is an important expression of Iraqi commitment to democracy. Iraq is widening the electoral process. In past elections, some of the lesser known parties had little chance. Now, the new entities coming to power in the North are relying on tribalism. In the South, the Majlis al Isnad are similar.

“We in ISCI will campaign on the basis of our ability to deliver goods and services. We will give other political parties a platform for their views. The special importance of this election is that it gives us a chance to do things by law and to settle all our differences. Transparency is important. We need to keep this election clean. We hope to have a lot of foreign monitors here. We also expect to see some changes in the next election, especially from those places where representation wasn't very good.”

Ambassador Hambley spoke for all of us when he said how glad he was that we were here and how very much we hoped to monitor the elections in this important year for Iraq. We asked Sayyid Amar how he saw the elections going.

“There is no policy in Iraq that can enable anyone to predict how things will go forward. I would hope that people follow ISCI not only on Election Day but at all times. We believe that the Iraqi government will do its best to deliver free and fair elections everywhere. We in ISCI can answer for the South. We know what it is to do our duty. This is why we support the UN and its assistants. It is only with stability that everyone will participate in the elections.”

In regard to the Sadrists, he said that they hoped and wished to see everyone participate in the widest possible way.

“We cannot help but acknowledge that some remain emotionally linked to Muqtada Sadr,” he added. They will be involved and some of their people will stand in the election. We see some important persons on the Sadrist lists but those listed as independents mostly support us. The Sadrists did not always participate in elections in the past, but instead made use of independents. We don’t see significant importance in Sadr. His movement is not as united as it once was.

“Meanwhile al-Jaafari’s Dawa has now split from Tandhim al-Iraq which has split from the Prime Minister’s ‘State of Law’ Dawa party. We now have more than four major political groups of people using the name ‘Dawa’ – and more than ten or eleven smaller groups. We were not in favour of the formation of the Majlis al-Isnad groups. Sahwa (the US sponsored political party emerging from the Sunni militia) came in areas controlled by insurgent groups like al-Qa’idah, in areas where there was no room for others to operate. This logic does not apply to secure areas like Najaf. We believe that keeping the names of our people in legitimate organisations within government is always the right way forward. This kind of friendship can lead to reconciliation. The Iranian returnees will not make a huge difference to the elections, as they are already affiliated to a party.

“We believe in honest competition and prayer. If people want a federal state that’s fine – but people want to share different views. We believe that the people south of Baghdad would like to see a federal Iraq.”

We asked about the different regions of Iraq, about their different problems:

“The people of Misan have their problems. Each region is different. One year, we were flying eighteen different flags here in Iraq.”

Should Western forces remain in Iraq any longer, we asked?

The answer was unequivocal. “The current security situation demands their continued presence.”

Electoral Commissioner Bushra

We left Sayyid Amar and went to visit the electoral commission for Najaf. Their office was working late and we were able to visit with electoral commissioner Bushra. We asked how registration for the voting had gone.

“Registration was extended for one week. We thought not a lot of people would come so we sent mobile units out to register people to vote. In the end registration was easier. One person could register for an entire family so registration was high.

“In this governorate, the population is around one million. Of that number 664,000 are eligible to vote (634,000 in 2005).

“Those who actually came forward and actually registered to vote were 448,000 (530,000 in 2005).

“Back in 2005 the number that actually voted was 302,000 in the referendum on the constitution and 386,000 in the general election.

“Here this time we have 57 lists. 3 independent lists, 5 coalitions, and 49 lists that do not represent coalitions. A total of 1,068 candidates for Najaf in January 2009.

“Although Najaf has seen devastating events, all will participate in the elections. The displaced families (refugees) living in Najaf number about 12,000 families. We sent their names to Baghdad, and the central electoral commission sent the names back as an annex to the main list. They must re-register as displaced persons to vote. 1,055 individual refugees have actually registered to vote here – a lot less than 10%.” One reason for this is that many families have returned to their homes, especially in Baghdad and Diyala.”

We promised to do our best to come back and monitor the elections in January in Najaf.

Later we were driven down town with our friendly security men provided by Sayyid Amar al Hakim in tow to watch over us. We found a crowded coffee shop and drank apple tea and smoked narjila, relaxing with the bright lights and the music and the tobacco. The place was filled with languid happy faces and the moderate evening heat was relaxing. But they guarded you well all the same. You were given a policeman to take you to the loo. Things are good in modern Iraq – but not yet that good.

Later still that night we went to Imam Ali’s tomb which was open round the clock because of the large numbers of pilgrims. The great slabs of gold on the minarets, the sparkle of the silver and glass interior, the weeping people. The energy of the place was vibrant and beautiful, the crowds respectful. It was a tremendous and exceedingly emotional experience for all of us.

. . . Another report from Iraq follows shortly

After Gaza - a few opinions

2009-04-02T15:00:00.000Z

The one overpowering image you are left with when you come out of today’s Gaza is one of people asking you “What shall we do?” They are very frightened, almost terrified. “You should help us find a way out,” said Ziad Abu Amr, one of Gaza’s more seasoned politicians. Normally it’s easy enough to find answers and the glib responses trip off your tongue. But now we live in a different universe.

If you speak to kids from the Islamic University, they have little or no time for Hamas. They are revolted by the Hamas attacks on Fatah in the aftermath of Israel’s war. Such attacks were tolerable in the context of Palestinian-Palestinian fighting but not when facing the external enemy that is Israel. Our friend Adel, who helps us in Gaza, told me that four Fatah members had been killed by Hamas and sixty wounded (there are spurious figures going round of higher death levels, promoted by anti-Hamasnicks – but the real figure is bad enough).

People are also disappointed by Hamas’ failure to fight Israel. They are angered by the low number of Hamas casualties compared to the massive level of civilian dead. Forty-eight Hamas soldiers died in the offensive on Gaza, that is if you discount the Hamas members who were bombed in their beds or who were recruited to the police force and bombed in their police stations. The people saw the bodies come into Shifa hospital. You can’t mistake an Hamas fighter in his distinctive black uniform.

But above all else people are disappointed with Hamas for its failure to lead and provide the people of Palestine with a clear sense of direction. One Hamas leader told us that in any election Hamas would now win 35% of the vote in Gaza (as opposed to 65% at the last election). But I think that’s an overestimate. Hamas called for a demonstration whilst I was there, but the numbers that turned out to march through the wreckage of Gaza City were paltry.

This of course does not translate into any increase in popularity for Fatah – an organisation which remains corrupt, decadent and hugely unpopular. The students at the Islamic University didn’t mince there words. “We don’t like any of them. Hamas, Fatah or Israel.” The students are very sanguine. “All of the people in Gaza dream of peace but it’s impossible,” they tell me. But what is really unpopular is democracy. People realise that honeyed Western words about Mid East democracy are just that, and that unless a pro-Western government is elected, the West will have nothing to do with you. So, in any election, if they did vote, they might vote independent, but the probability might be that they wouldn’t vote at all - which might enable Hamas to drag out its core membership and do better than it should by default.
Hamas has become very autocratic these days. It used to have two wings, one led by Said Siyami, one by Mahmoud Zahar. Now Israel has killed Siyami which makes it a one man show. If Israel has its way it will kill Zahar as well and leave Hamas leaderless except for the irrelevant mouthpiece in Damascus called Abu Mishal – and thus let true anarchy hold sway.

The one group that has massively increased in popularity in the aftermath of Israel’s Gaza war is Islamic Jihad. Palestinians respect the fact that Islamic Jihad has kept its hands clean (in so much as it hasn’t involved itself in the internecine killings). Furthermore Islamic Jihad hasn’t bought into the peace process. Professor Walid Al Moudallah, the Head of the Islamic University, told me, “The peace process didn’t deliver. You can’t move people by talking about the peace process.” The people also respect the fact that Islamic Jihad is a less straight-laced and more free-thinking organisation than Hamas.

Hamas, much like Fatah, is under tight party control. Thus as with most stultifying organisations, like the British Labour Party, if you don’t toe the line, you suffer exclusion. Islamic Jihad has become Palestine’s visionary organisation and its leader, Dr. Mohammed al-Hindi is a freer thinker than most you will find in Hamas. He told me that if there was a two-state solution he would buy me a slice of cheesecake – but he didn’t think it was going to happen. He feels that Israel doesn’t want a two-state solution; it wants a three state solution. He says he has no dislike for the Jews; “If Olmert were a Muslim I’d still fight him.” He said that the Jews had rights just as the Palestinians did, and “We don’t want to throw anyone into the sea, but do you really expect us to do nothing while thousands of our people are burnt by white phosphorus?”

To be fair, Hamas doesn’t want to throw anyone into the sea either, despite what the West believes. The West is too fond of defining what other people think by referring to ancient charters and saying, “That’s what you believe, now renounce it,” whilst the world has moved on. Ahmed Yussef, the chief political advisor to Hamas told me, “You have to deal with the Jews as your brother whether you like it or not.” But most people are traumatised – the war is fresh in their minds. One old friend from Hamas, Dr Mohamed Mighdad, told me, “There was a horrible three days. My children said they were waiting for death. I would never have believed that they could live.” All people want now are open borders.

“We want trade not aid,” they say. Another old friend, the journalist Sami Abdul Shafi, said, “I believe the Israeli people would be shamed if they knew what had gone on here. The only people who suffered were the civilians and after all of this Hamas are still in charge. Everything in Gaza is the same except the civilian death and the annihilation of the public sector.”

What should happen next?

So what should happen to build a peaceful Middle East? Well the first thing that we need is some sort of credible political party to represent the Palestinians. This means that Fatah reform, long-opposed by both the Israelis and the Fatah old-guard has to be permitted. These ancient dinosaurs can no longer govern Palestine. Abu Mazen works for three hours a day and really doesn’t have any comprehension of what is going on. Politically, Ramallah has become a ghost town with Palestinian Authority meetings in permanent suspension. The West cannot stomach the idea of Fatah reform because it means the young hot-bloods will move into positions of leadership; people like Kadoura Faris and Fadwa Barghouti for example. The point is that we either want peace or we don’t and it’s all very well talking to a guy like Abu Mazen who is politically correct and willing to bend over backwards, but when the reality is he can’t deliver and has lost all credibility, what’s the point?

It is important to realise that the Palestinians are not truly disempowered. Ceasefire or no ceasefire, they continue to face a continual barrage of Israeli sonic bombs over Gaza. These extraordinary terror weapons create an enormous explosion rather like a big firework without doing any physical damage and are used to enforce Israel’s hegemony lest the Palestinians should forget recent events. I fail to see the point; they do little except to frighten children and foment hatred and in my view are more amoral than white phosphorus ever was. And yes, as a consequence of the sonic bombs, and as a consequence of the ongoing closures, Palestinians do believe themselves to be grossly disempowered.

Conditions in Gaza remain abysmal. All the more so, since UNWRA supplies are restricted to refugees and are not used to feed the countless dispossessed in the recent bombings who weren’t living in refugee camps at the time of the attack. The UN does not deem internally displaced people to be refugees. Hamas did try to snatch some supplies in order to feed the population at large, but were stomped on for it. Now people in Gaza go hungry and tunnels provide the only respite.

“The continuing of the siege is a kind of aggression,” said Dr Al Hindi of Islamic Jihad.

But amidst all this chaos, the Palestinians are not powerless in so much as they have the power of last resort – the true power of those perceived as powerless – the power to withhold their co-operation. This they have done, and this they will continue to do. If Israel demands the release of Corporal Shalit, they have the power to say no, if Israel demands an end to the Qassam rockets, they have the power to say no. They have the power to be obstreperous; they have the power to back a one-state solution, and the greater the chaos, the more they will exercise their right.

What should Israel do?

Faced with mounting Palestinian chaos, what should Israel do? The answer is self-evident really. Israel should encourage Fatah reform and open the crossings into Gaza allowing free access for goods – something it failed to do throughout the period of the ceasefire which expired on 17th December 2008. Israel should also release Marwan Barghouti, the only credible Palestinian leader capable of promoting true inter-Palestinian peace, and Israel should open communications with Gaza. One Hamas leader told me, “We could start with secret meetings with five or six from Hamas”. But Israelis won’t walk down that road. They veto all contact.

Israeli journalists could be permitted to travel to Gaza; present law forbids any Israelis to travel anywhere within the occupied territories and as a result Israelis in general have no idea what’s going on.

This lack of communications is enormously important – failure to communicate with mainstream Palestinians in general and with Hamas in particular has grossly disadvantaged us in the West. But imagine what it has done for Israel, a nation that doesn’t watch Western satellite TV and listens to all its news broadcasts in Hebrew. How can they even begin to know what’s going on? Most Israelis genuinely believe that since they withdrew from Gaza, Hamas has just sent thousands upon thousands of rockets into southern Israel making life in towns like Ashkelon intolerable. And they regard this as grossly ungrateful behaviour. Most Israelis were genuinely horrified by the consequences of the 2006 summer war and are seriously terrorized by the fact that Qassams have started to become Grads and Grads have started to become Katushas which almost reach the suburbs of Tel Aviv. Should they sit back and do nothing and allow this reign of terror to continue? Most Israelis back the war on Gaza and feel that it was regrettable but vitally necessary for the survival of the Jewish state in a hostile Middle East environment. Israelis cannot see things through Palestinian eyes because they don’t meet Palestinians. What they don’t realise is that for the average Gazan, things were bad under the Israeli occupation, but have become considerably worse after Israel’s unilateral withdrawal which coincided with the election of Hamas. A reminder of those dates lest you’ve forgotten: Israel left Gaza on 12th September 2005; Sharon had his stroke on 5th January 2006; Hamas was elected as the Government of Palestine on 25th January 2006.

Since Israel’s withdrawal, conditions in Gaza have become so severe that goods are moved from place to place by donkey cart because of the lack of petrol and basic staples which people in the West take for granted, are unavailable. Children at deaf schools have no hearing aids, because hearing aids require batteries and batteries are prohibited because batteries can be used to make bombs. Sewage spills onto the streets because spare parts are not allowed in because they might have some nefarious dual use. This is Gaza, an area with immense resources, huge off-shore gas fields and a well educated people, an area which could easily be the Singapore of the Middle East, were it left to itself. The Arab UNWRA boss in Gaza wants to raise money to build a Hebrew language radio station to broadcast from Gaza into Israel and present a moderate view along with a diet of Israeli pop music. A Hebrew station broadcasting out of Gaza is a great idea. Something needs to be done to break the communications black-out.

What should Hamas do?

What should Hamas do while all this goes on? Hamas remains strong in Gaza with control of 1200 mosques, 400 social organisations and several universities. One young Hamas activist, Salama Attalah, told me, “Hamas will remain in the government. Hamas doesn’t think to go for resistance only. Hamas doesn’t think of failure. It doesn’t think like we do. It will not step back.” In which case Hamas should get its act together and that means biting the bullet and actually learning to govern. And to do that, Hamas has to recognise Israel in the context of a two-state solution. The Hamas response is that that would make them unpopular. But how can they be more unpopular in Gaza than they are already?

I believe the reverse is true. If they show themselves fit to govern, they would make themselves more popular in Gaza and the West Bank, and the first step on that road, is to recognize reality and recognize Israel so they can get on with the international community. Israel exists; there is even a chapter in the Koran called Israel. Hamas needs to enter the world stage and there is only one way they can do it and it’s time they grew up and got on with it.

And while we are talking about the world at large, maybe we should clarify a point or two with regard to Iran. My friend Yaacov Hadas who heads the Mid-East section of Israel’s Foreign Ministry told me that the Gaza war was a proxy war “Israel on behalf of Egypt and Hamas on behalf of Iran”. Well that’s one way of looking at it, but Iran does not supply weapons to Gaza. The Grads used in Gaza are not Iranian any more than the Katyushas are Russian. They are Chinese copies of these weapons. All the weapons imported into Gaza are Chinese these days. They all come from Sudan and are brought in across the Sinai by Bedu smugglers who have done nothing but smuggle goods for hundreds of years and have no particular fondness for the Egyptian government.

What Iran supplies to Gaza is money with which Palestinians can buy weapons, and food and petrol and all the rest of the myriad of things that can go through the tunnels and enable daily life to continue under the closures.

The only people who have supplied the Palestinians with cash for their daily needs are Iran and the UAE, nobody else, even Qatar stopped under international pressure. Iran and the UAE continue and provide a vital lifeline. Furthermore on the subject of Iran, the Iranian government separates out its civil military programme from its military nuclear programme and the later is entirely covert. Unless Israel and the West wise up and engage in real and genuine rapprochement with Iran, we will soon face a new nuclear weapons power in the Middle East with all the potential consequences which that entails. And unless Iran wises up and takes rapprochement seriously, it may find itself facing a war with the USA after all. The trap is engagement. Obama has already started to engage Iran and will do so all the more enthusiastically after Iran’s June Presidential elections (which will see the ousting of Ahmadinejad). But should that engagement fail, then a right wing Israeli government could after all get an Obama green light to take military action, with all the trouble that would bring.

What should Fatah do?

What should the Palestinian Authority be doing while this goes on? Well the Palestinian Authority should meet, that’s number one. Israel has bombed out the Palestinian Authority building in Gaza, just as it has bombed every civil building right down to the land registry. To see Gaza City today is enough to make you weep. So many people have been traumatized; so many familiar landmarks are gone. None the less there are alternatives. Hamas has facilities for video conferences and the Ramallah parliament building is in one piece. So the Palestinian Authority with its Hamas majority should meet and conduct business and at the risk of flogging a dead horse, in the process, they should vote on the three demands from the Europeans. Let them vote no if they like, but let them vote so we can at last actually recognize that there is still a political mind functioning in Palestine. The three demands are of course; an end to violence, and acceptance of past agreements and recognition of Israel. Notice, by the way, how the West keeps raising the bar, to make it more difficult for the Palestinians to accept their demands. “Recognize Israel” has changed in the past two years to “recognise Israel’s right to exist”. Ostensibly perfectly reasonable, but then it shifted again to “recognize Israel’s right to exist as a Jewish state.” All this in an environment where Israel has just elected a Likud prime minister whose political party believes in a one-state solution and whose charter calls for an Israeli state which stretches from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean. Perhaps we should be calling for Likud to recognize the Palestinians’ right to a state but the point is Likud is in the driving seat and the Palestinians are not.

The Middle East has become a political wasteland. We have fought our battles there in vain. Admittedly Iraq is getting better but at an awesome and terrible cost of human life. Meanwhile Afghanistan is lost to us while Syria remains pragmatic and proud and is unlikely to enter a peace deal with Israel that involves a mere lease-back of the Golan (that’s the position Likud favours).

What should America do?

What should the West do? Well the West is not very good at thinking about more than one thing at a time. The West should encourage Palestinian Presidential elections so that we can get some new blood at the top. That would make for a great start and I think would result in a victory for Marwan Barghouti.

Having said that, we should recognise that the West has already changed tack since the election of Obama. In her private discussions with Israeli leaders Hilary Clinton is expressing herself strongly – astonishingly strongly – on the settlements issue. As Shai Feldman of Brandeis University, a long-time interlocutor with the NCF, emphasised this week: This is troubling for Israeli leaders – most especially for Netanyahu. Netanyahu has relied on alliances with the right wing parties in order to form a government. He was unable to deliver the government of national unity that most Israelis had wished to see simply because he was unable to publicly acknowledge the merit of a two state solution (a Tzipi Leevni demand). If he had done so, he would have lost his right wing support base. Now that Netanyahu has managed to form a government of the right he is doomed to a collision course with the United States. Netanyahu is backing an “economic peace” that empowers the West bank without rewarding Gaza. The US supports his efforts here but they tell him, “Not as a substitute for a full peace process, only as a foundation for such a process”. This means of course that America will fall out with the Bibi Netanyahu government – and note that the Israeli electorate judges its leaders on the degree to which they manage to maintain a good relationship with the USA. Bibi holds a poisoned chalice.

And what future?

And what’s going to happen in the Middle East in the coming years? Lebanon could conceivably disintegrate and there is a slim possibility of a new, wider Middle East war with Iran. I say slim, because Iran has less money to throw around on external adventures now that the oil price has dropped. But Iran might be the one to strike first if forced by sanctions into a tighter and tighter corner. Hopefully it won’t come to that and we can look forward to a true Middle East peace in nine or ten years’ time. The quick fix has proved elusive but peace remains inevitable and there are two ways things can go. Either we have a three-state solution for the time being, whereby we tolerate different governments in Gaza and the West Bank and live with that. Or we all speed up the process.

A propos of which back to my old friend Shai Feldman. He reminds us that there have been opinion polls lately. Here I am not referring to the polls that rate Hamas popularity above Fatah on the west Bank and way way down in Gaza. Here I refer to those polls conducted year in year out by The Hebrew University in Jerusalem in cooperation with Khalil Shikaky in the West Bank. According to which:

The vast majority of Palestinians believe in a two state solution – as do the vast majority of Israelis.
However the vast majority of Palestinians erroneously believe that the vast majority of Israelis do not believe in a two state solution. Conversely the vast majority of Israelis erroneously believe that the vast majority of Palestinians do not believe in a two state solution.
And now here’s the rub. Amazingly, the vast majority of Palestinians erroneously believe that most Palestinians do not believe in a two state solution. And finally, you guessed it, the vast majority of Israelis erroneously believe that most Israelis do not believe in a two state solution

It’s a madhouse. In today’s world we don’t talk to each other. We are too busy promoting our personal version of justice – which usually means some sort of retribution. There is precious little listening or dialogue. We replace dialogue with reward and punishment. On both sides. This is not an exclusively Israeli sin. Getting Gaza Palestinians to talk to Israelis is like getting blood out of a stone half the time. Israelis think they are imposing the closures in retribution for the Qassam rockets. Palestinians think they are slinging the Qassams at Israel in retribution for the closures.

If you stick your thumb in honey and then put it in a child’s mouth, the child will suck your thumb until the honey’s gone and then he’ll bite it. Sticks and carrots are no answer. They never were the answer. You don’t treat your enemies like dehumanised criminals, you talk to them. As a young NCF intern has said, this is a belief issue not a behaviour issue. Tackling behaviour works short term only. You can use carrots and sticks to tackle behaviour but what’s the point. To tackle a belief you need a conversation – and conversations are sorely lacking in today’s Middle East . . .

Wandering through Iraq – Baghdad

2009-03-29T17:03:00.001Z

18 November 2008: We head for Baghdad early, and arrive early. We are picked up by (name withheld) as soon as we get into the airport. There is a bit of sorting to do as our visas into Kurdistan do not permit us access to Baghdad. Iraq is two countries now – at a minimum. We are taken through a bustling Baghdad past Baghdad University with its students spilling out onto the streets. This is Baghdad as it once was, a better place. No shoddy filthy Green Zone hotel this time; we stay in Red Zone Baghdad in Jadariyah, in a little hotel called the Rukin al-Jadreyah. Lots of security, of course, provided by our host for this part of the trip, the spiritual and political leader His Eminence, Sayyid Amr Al Hakim. None the less, this sort of Red Zone freedom would have been impossible a year ago.

We spend a pleasant evening with a visit to some Green Zone friends. Mr Walid Issa Taha of Taha and Partners, our Baghdad Board Member and his Development Manager, Nadia El-Ezzi; HE The Ambassador of Japan, Mr Shoji Ogawa, and an old friend from my Doha days, his First Secretary Mr Shoji Ryuno; Mr Andrew Gilmour the Acting Head of UNAMI, and some new friends from the US Embassy; plus Xan Smiley of The Economist; another friend who had served in Basrah (name withheld); and Ranj’s father, Gasam Alaaldin, who had joined us to help out. Walid was the host, and he looked after us very well.

We seized the opportunity to talk to our friend from Basra. He told us that the governor in Basra was both unpopular and corrupt. He added that the Sadrists, on the other hand, came in three forms:

Fadillah
Al Husayni Ayatadah
Muqtada Al Sadr

All of the above are groups follow the political ethos of the late Grand Ayotallah Mohamed Sadiq Al Sadr, and all are in his view Sadrists. He said that all of these groups are grass roots organizations which are not “intellectual”. The districts of Basrah in which they might campaign and have historic strength are: Aayamiyah, Al Quibah, Al Kemsameen, Al Gohrama. He said however that they were finished there and were not even electable - Unless they stood under a different name, and even then not many would be elected.

He added that Maliki was very popular in Basra and that even the Sunnis support the present security agreement. He was 60% - 70% convinced that Malaki would win in Basra. “People want what brings them peace,” he said and reiterated his comment that even the Sunnis would vote for Malaki. In a final statement he said that, “The people will no longer tolerate interference from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait or Iran.”

The rest of the conversation that evening was relaxed and convivial; there was just one particular comment agreed by most of the Westerners present that rather surprised us. It was that there would be no elections of any kind in Kirkuk at any time during 2009. We should have realised that that would be the obvious strategy for the West to pursue. Our intention has always been to kick the Kirkuk issue down the road, so that it’s dealt with after we have left Iraq. Still, it was surprising to hear such a bald statement both made and exceeded to.

Ambassador Ryan Crocker, US Envoy to Iraq

18 November 2008: We made an early start to travel into the Green Zone from our Red Zone hotel. We gave ourselves well over an hour for the comparatively short journey but we miscalculated. The trip took us the best part of two hours because of difficulties entering the Green Zone and we were late for our appointment with the US Ambassador. None the less he was an old friend of Mark Hambley’s and he greeted us warmly despite our tardiness. He started by talking a little about the current meetings between the Turks and Kurds which he felt were encouraging; they were certainly a first. We asked him about the Kirkuk issue; why had the US acceded to the idea that Kirkuk could be left out of the provincial elections in January? He smiled in response, “Everything was deadlocked. We’d have had no elections anywhere in the country had we not agreed to the delay on Kirkuk. In any case the Article 24 committee will have to report before the end of March, and then we will be able to move forward on Kirkuk.

“Meanwhile, the signal we all need to send is that these elections in Iraq are important. There has been a dramatic improvement in security as the smoke and dust of the battlefield clears. However there are issues of concern. The Kurds are trying to create facts on the ground from Sinjar to Khanaqin. Along with the general improvement in security, we are getting increased Arab resentment of Kurdish encroachments and heightened personal resentment between Malaki and Barzani. A series of five party committees have been established between the Kurds and the central government, and they are supposed to deal with all unresolved issues. They are talking at the moment.”

We asked about the elections. Ambassador Crocker said, “The Awakening Councils (Sahwa) are very engaged. They have thirteen thousand candidates, the Awakening movement is becoming a political movement. The IIP (Iraq Islamic Party) knows how to handle the political campaign, the Awakening Councils don’t. US AID is doing some election training for the political parties, and we have asked them to pay special attention to the newly emerging political groups, to train them not only to campaign well but also to manage their expectations. The Sahwa movement is hugely fluid. It’s dividing and reforming all the time.”

We asked the Ambassador how things were going in Mosul. He confessed to being fairly unhappy about the situation there, “There has been no decisive improvement in Mosul,” he said.
Regrettably he was called away at that point but before he left he handed us over to his able deputy, Adam Ereli to continue the discussion.

Ambassador Adam Ereli, (Crocker’s Senior Deputy and also US Ambassador to Bahrain):

Adam is an old friend. He used to work out of London, and it was good to see him in his new incarnation as both Ambassador to Bahrain and Deputy Ambassador in Baghdad. We began by asking him about the apparent sidelining of any referendum on the future of the disputed territories. He replied with a question. “Is this referendum going to be a match on a dry haystack?”

We took his point, then asked him about the role of UNAMI which seems to be both trying to be an independent organization dealing with advising Iraq on the elections on the one hand whilst at the same time taking a lead role on suggesting politically controversial solutions to the disputed territories issue.

“It’s not necessarily fair to say that UNAMI is acting unilaterally on this. We don’t want to push things too far too fast on the disputed territories. Do we really want to open that hornet’s nest? It’s been kicked down the road by mutual agreement.”

When he was talking to us earlier, Ambassador Ereli had stressed the breakdown of the political condominium between the Shites and the Kurds. The formal breakdown of the Shia political condominium took place on 22 July 2008, when the Shia and Sunni voted against the Kurds.

“Meanwhile the Shia coalition has become completely fractured,” he said. “The UIA (United Iraqi Alliance) is nothing but a name. There is a lot of ferment there. In general, Iraqi politics is in turmoil. In Anbar province there is a lot of dissatisfaction with central government over both services and security. You have these local councils, the Awakening Movement, which are very heterodox, very tribal. It would be a mistake to look for political forces that correspond to partisan politics as we have known them in Iraq. These new groups are fluid and undefined.

“On the other hand, even though people are dissatisfied, don’t overestimate the power of incumbency. Maliki’s Dawa Party may do better than expected. Meanwhile the IIP is not what it was. Both the Tawafuq and the IIP are fracturing, much like the UIA is fracturing. There is deterioration of existing alliances. Meanwhile Maliki is promoting his Majalis Al Isnad in the centre and the south. The doomsayers see it as Dawa’s militia. There’s a tension about these developments in the political machinery.”

We asked one more time about the Kirkuk issue: would there be elections in Kirkuk in 2009 at any time?

“That depends. Who stands to gain? Neither side is looking for confrontation. Be careful about what you wish for, Arab-Kurd tensions are rising. The potential for a flash point igniting is grave. The tension is palpable, why throw a lighted match into a room full of gas?”

We asked him about the Sadrists.

“The Sadrists are running as independents, people will know who they are. In Basra and Najaf it won’t go well for them. Since the Sadrists went from Najaf things are looking up. The same in Basra. In one sense the satisfaction is high, but is there anyone to capitalise on it? Perhaps the remnants of ISCI will do well. Fadillah is not out of the running and Tawafuq is not dead but morphing.” He continued his wide ranging overview of Iraqi politics. “There are more voices than we recognise calling for a federal district in the south. Meanwhile 50% of the Sons of Iraq, fifty-five thousand of them, come from Bagdad. The Sahwa is what we call the Awakening Movement. The Sons of Iraq are the most important group within that movement. They are really nasty some of these groups.

“There are other groups that are difficult to identify. Some of the Sons of Iraq are being disbanded. They were paid by us. Now they are being integrated into the security forces or demobbed. These are very difficult issues. How do you do it? If they are paid for by Iraqis you get people in uniforms with guns instead of people in dishdashas with guns. Will they stay within the police force? Twenty percent of the one hundred and five thousand Sons of Iraq are going to be given jobs within the government security forces. In Falujah most of them will join the police.”

We asked him about Malaki. “Dissatisfaction with Malaki is high. He is deeply unpopular. People are concerned about their basic needs.

“The new provincial election laws do not allow people to use religions symbols. That’s highly important. People are influenced by religion. Iranian meddling is pervasive. They want an Iraq that does not pose a threat. They want to keep Iraq in a situation in which it can be dominated. They are attempting to gain in 2008 what they couldn’t get in 1988. They were attempting to scuttle SOFA (State of the Forces Agreement). They think they can remove a political threat by scuttling it. Passing SOFA helps everybody. If it doesn’t pass it they’re all f****d! I’m cautiously optimistic. SOFA has become a political battle against Malaki - if it doesn’t pass it reflects on his leadership.”

Dr Salam Al-Zuba’ai, Head of Abna’ al-Rafidayn Movement:

We left the US Ambassador’s office which is in Saddam Hussein’s old palace, and Sabah Al Obaidi who heads our Iraq office (which is gifted to us by Walid Issa Taha) took us across to Walid’s place. Walid had cars ready to take us for our meeting with Abna’al-Rafidayn. The vehicles were great bullet proof GMC tanks. Walid explained the position on the way over. “Dr Salam Al-Zuba’ai heads Abna al-Rafidayn. He works with the Western and Northern tribes in Ramadi and Salahaddin. He has joined his effort with Iyad Allawi’s Al Wifaq group (the Iraqi National Accord). Sabah, who heads our office in Bagdad, is also head of the political office of Abna’ al-Rafidayn. This is a new political party which also aligns itself with al-Hadba’, another distinct party which operates in Mosul area.”

By this time we had arrived at the Abna’al-Rafidayn offices and were ushered into a great hall or majlis, where large numbers of people were seated around the walls. We were introduced to a few of them: Sheikh Mo'aiad Al-Obaidi; Sheikh Abu Saddam from the South; Colonel Farroq a supporter; Colonel Mazin Al-Samara'e, head of the Support Council of Samara; Sheikh Faisal of Abu Ghraib; Ahmed from Samara; Abu Alia, the deputy of Colonel Mazin from Majalis Isnad Samara; Miss Esma, the party’s media officer; Zahra Al Jabari, the Children’s’ Officer; Miss Fatmah, the former Minister of Women; Mrs Sohailah, the former Minister for Displaced Persons.

Salam Zuba’ai started to talk once the introductions were over. “None of us want Iraqi society to fall apart, but here we have an absence of proper civilisation. When I was in authority here in Bagdad, I was visited by a British MEP, and I blamed him for our troubles. Now, I’m blaming you (the West). We used to have the best bridges here in Bagdad. Our railways were the best. Even our roads were the best. Now look at us. The UK deserves some credit for improving our medical services, and the US has made some improvements in relationships between the tribes. But none of you seem to have really understood us. Not even the British. There is no modern Lawrence; we can’t see anything positive. We negotiate with our enemies, but we still blame the British for our plight. The Americans have huge exposure in Iraq, and the British should be advising them better. The British know what we expect to happen. Our movement was only established seven months ago.

“The Iraqi government has committed lots of mistakes. Our government is not capable of success, because it’s affected by political immaturity. The Sunnis have their own political programme. The Shias have theirs. So, too, the Kurds. Three political programmes with three different goals. The Kurds want to conquer the disputed territories, as well as seize control of their own oil. The Sunnis want to restore the position they lost as Iraq’s elite. They have been used to being Iraq’s rulers for a long time.

“And unfortunately the Shias don’t recognize that the others have rights. Their various political programmes have exposed the weakness of Iraq. Only now are we starting to resolve these issues, but to do so fully we have to correct the present Iraqi government which has been straight jacketed by an unfair political situation.

“That’s how governments start to act unilaterally. Now that we live in a country where there is no law and there are no borders, the excesses of Saddam don’t look as bad as they once did. When religious people enter government, their actions reflect badly on both religion and politics. When people who pretend to be religious, but aren’t, enter government they cause immense damage.

“Jesus, Moses and Mohammed were all from the Middle East. Our political party wants to demonstrate that we can protect the minorities here in Iraq. I support the Christians, and one of my first demands is that the Jews should have a right to return back to Iraq and be compensated for their losses.

“But Abna’ al-Rafidayn is not really a political party as such, not in the way most parties work here in Iraq. For one thing we do not use religion because we prefer to respect all religious people of whatever heritage. For another thing, we depend on the support of people with a technical background. We also count on young people and reserve a strong place for women in our political movement.

“Iraq’s key problem is economic. Iraq is subject to pressure from the outside world and tension from within. Iraq has bad neighbours like Iran to deal with. The people in Southern Iraq respect and understand us. They do not want Iranian dominance any more than we want to be subject to interference from al-Qa’ida.

“We will participate in the next governorate elections. We will open up our hearts to the whole world so that they can see what we stand for.”

Salam Zuba’ai stood up and left us to talk with his advisors indicating that we should question some of the others present. A man called Abu Siwa from Salahadin was the first to come forward. “In the 2005 governorate elections in Samara, a hundred and forty thousand people did not participate. This meant that there was no balance amongst those elected in the province for the current period. Many of those who didn’t vote last time will vote now, and they will vote for the al-Rafidayn lists. Furthermore, previously a lot of people voted the Iraqi Islamic Party (IIP), because they did not want to follow the Shiite religious parties. Now people want a truly secularist alternative. You will never get a Shiite to vote for an Islamic party or a Sunni to vote Dawa. Al-Radifayn will do well in Salahadin.”

Abu Saddam was the next to speak. This old Sheikh was from the South. “Miss Gertrude Bell loved the Iraqi people. We need that kind of attitude from the West. In the South, the Sadrists may have some public support but not from the intellectuals, and they are not patriotic. Then we have the Sahwa in Iraq, but they were established by the USA rather than legally established and we are ashamed that a government that claims to be democratic relies on Sahwa as the only way to get rid of AQI (Al Qaidah in Iraq), because our army and security forces are infiltrated by Iran. We in Abna’ al-Rafidayn are the reason the IIP will loose some of its seats. We don’t believe that the Sahwa will take that many votes. We take advantage of the fact that the Government of Iraq have abandoned Sahwa, and we draw them to our side.”

Sheikh Obeidi spoke next. “The Shiites in our society are beginning to become more politically aware. In the past they have been patriotic and non-sectarian. I am sure they will turn to Abna’ al-Rafidayn.”

Zahara Jabouri from Bagdad had something to say. “I’m the director of the Cultural Centre for Iraqi Children, and the editor of a children’s magazine. We are working to establish a youth movement for our political group and the base is already strong. We are asking everyone to support us. Even those who are orphans for whom we have made a movement called The Peace Orphans which already has two hundred and thirteen members”.

At this point we were called to a private meeting with Dr Salam al Zuba’ei. We moved into his small study, and he started to explain his strategy. “We have agreements for alliances with a number of other political groups. These include:

The group of Qais Al Mamouri
The Al Hadba group in Mosul including General Tawfiq Al Yassari and Mr Nujayfi
Ayad Allawi
the Justice and Democracy Group in Misan (Amara)
And a range of alliances in Basra

“Muqtadr al-Sadr is not popular, but he has a popular base, especially among the disenfranchised youth. That’s why we have to carefully take this base from him by preparing a new youth leadership.

“We are not worried by the membership of Sahwa and Majlis Al Isnad. Those who join Majlis Al Isnad in the North will not vote Dawa. Abna’ al-Rafidayn welcomes Majlis Al Isnad.

“Dawa itself is split with three groups standing against Malaki:

Ibrahim al-Jaffari
Abdul Karim Al Enzi
Alaa Makiah

“The reason Malaki has sent signals to the people that the constitution has some mistakes is to gain votes for the elections by seeming tough on the Kurds. We are all so influenced by British political methods here.

“In Mosul, Mr Nujayfi and the Al Hatba’ Party represent the urban folks of Mosul, whereas our movement gets most of its support from the tribes. We asked Nujayfi to join us, but he refused because he gets a great deal of money from Turkey. We threatened to take his vote, and then he accepted our alliance. We will run on a united list in Mosul.”

. . . Another report from Iraq follows shortly

Wandering through Iraq – Kirkuk

2009-03-28T17:49:00.003Z

17 November 2008: We headed for Kirkuk early and picked up Surood Kirkuki, one of our associates from previous trips and a real fighter for democracy and peace. She waited for our convoy at the roadside and we crammed her in.

The change in Kirkuk is stunning. The traffic is bustling. The town is alive. On previous trips we had dashed at breakneck speed through half empty streets for fear of bullets. This time we took our time. Our guard was not twitchy as before and we even get stuck in traffic but nobody seemed to panic. We headed for the police station, our first port of call.

Brigadier General Sarhad Kader, Head of the Kirkuk police force:

General Sarhad’s office is well fortified and very busy. The walls are crammed with photos of his friends and acquaintances. People come and go all the time. We asked him about his job.

"I am responsible for 3,000 police in 24 subdistricts. We work on the ground to erase the terrorists, They are especially active around Habija, Zab, Riad, and Rashed (Tamim under Saddam).

“Before the removal of Saddam in 2003 I was responsible for Kirkuk policy but based in Arbil. But now we have everything under control. It has not been easy as 700 of our policemen have been martyred and 1,500 were injured. But now most of the terrorists have been subdued and we have an Iraqi police force managed by Iraqis”.

We asked him about moves to bring Majlis Al Isnad (the Electoral Support Council set up by Prime Minister Malaki) to Kirkuk. “The people don’t support organisation like Majlis Al Isnad. Central government wants to create them in hotspots where we have trouble. Before they had Sahwah created by the US military. Yesterday we had a meeting on how to manage Sahwah and we decided to take 2,200 for the Iraqi police force out of the 11,000 Sahwah in Kirkuk. We concentrated on those who had a clean background.

“Here in Kirkuk we have to deal with a wide range of terrorists. We have Ansar Al Sunah, the Audeh Party, Jaish Al Islam, Khutaib Rafidain, Khutaib Thawrat Asreen, Ansar Al Islam (including Kurds) and Al Qaidah. The Saddarists (followers of Muqtada al-Sadr) are not a problem for us because they target the US not the city.”

Abdulrahman M Fatah, The Governor of Kirkuk

From the police station we travelled to the well fortified governor’s office. The governor greeted us warmly and lamented the fact that there would be no provincial election in Kirkuk.

“We did not want the election delayed. The political people in Baghdad decided to delay because of the number of people coming home to Kirkuk after the implementation of article 140 of the constitution (article 140 governs arrangements for the resettlement of people to / from Kirkuk). Now they say that they wish to go ahead with the election in July. Parliament created a committee which was supposed to visit Kirkuk on November 1st and look at our situation here, but until now they have not shown up here in Kirkuk. When you compare Kirkuk to other provinces, we are more prepared for elections here. Last week in Baghdad we made representations to the government that they deal with our issues.

“I am an independent person. There is a Brotherhood list (Kurdish) on Kirkuk city council. They have one political message. Both sides want Kirkuk to be incorporated into Kurdistan.

“The delay in the implementation of article 140 is our biggest problem. If they solve that it will help to settle things. It is a problem from Baghdad. We need normalisation. We need a census and then a referendum. The Iraq government does not help implement this. If they implement this our problem will be over. There are three possible options:

Kirkuk goes to Kurdistan.
Kirkuk remains as it is now.
Kirkuk becomes an independent region.

“No one is ready to make any concession so it’s down to the referendum and the vote to make the decision about this province’s destiny. Everyone lives together well here. There are differences between the political parties here but the people get on with one another.

“The United Nations are here in the shape of UNAMI (the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq). We have met them indeed several times. They asked us to help them but we have had absolutely no feedback from them”.

We asked him about the new committee on Kirkuk “Under article 24 of the old election law (since revised and listed as article 23), there is supposed to be a committee that includes two members of each of the ethnic groups. This is the committee that was to suppose to come from Baghdad on 1st November. It’s now rumoured that this committee will come after Eid (8 December). But we have no information. Not only do we not have the names, we do not even have any official order informing us that any such committee is to be established.

“The problem is that there are many claims with regards to the change in demography here in Kirkuk as refugees return and settlers leave. They were supposed to write their report on 31st March 2008 and they were supposed investigate property rights as well as the election. The Kirkuk Brotherhood list which dominated the council did not ask for this committee. This demand came from the Christians, the Arabs and the Turkomans. The Turkoman dispute was over their representation. There are three key positions here in Kirkuk. One is that of the governor, one is that of the deputy governor and one is that of the head of the council. They wanted the three ethnic groups represented in the three key positions. Currently the deputy governor is Arab and both the governor and the head of the council are Kurdish. The Turkoman representatives have been boycotting council meetings for a year over this issue”

We asked about city council elections. The city council was appointed three months ago by mutual agreement. Abdulrahman then said, “Another problematic issue is the division of the official posts between the various ethnic groups. Article 23 of the constitution divided civil service positions in Kirkuk 32% to Arabs, 32% to Kurds and 32% to Turkoman plus 3 % reserved for the Christians. But it is not clear whether this just applies to the director generals or to all civil servants. The committee are to decide. This is a divisive issue because there are very few Kurds in public service positions in Kirkuk as most were removed by Saddam. For instance, the oil company employees here are 90% Arab.”

We asked about security. “The Sahwah (US appointed quasi-militia) were established here in cooperation with USA and they helped bring back security to some regions in the Kirkuk Governorate. The new Majlis Al Isnad security forced is one we have heard of but not yet seen. Meanwhile, the government established a new unit of Iraq army (the 15th division) the head of which is not from Kirkuk.

“But security is not our main problem. We have many projects here. The refinery. The hospital. A new airport. The central government implements nothing. In theory there are two budgets for Kirkuk. One is a capital budget and the other is for projects initiated by ministers. But nothing happens.”

Rizgar Ali Hamajan, The Chairman Kirkuk Provincial Council

The office of the governorate council was just a few short steps from the governor’s office in the same compound. Rizgar was waiting for us.

“The Iraqi constitution has 142 articles. Our problem is with article 140 and I don’t see any way to solve this problem. On top of which Maliki is trying to change the article in the Iraqi constitution which gives authority to the provinces. Delaying the election was the big mistake. The more it is delayed the more complicated it becomes. Here in Kirkuk the governorate council has four lists:

The KBL, the Kirkuk Brotherhood List (which include 2 Arabs, 2 Turkoman and 1 Syrian Christian) holds 26 seats
The ITF, the Iraqi Turkoman Front holds 8 seats
The Islamic Turkoman (which belong to ISCI and the Badar organisation) hold 1 seat (they are pro-referendum)
At Tajamah A Jouthari Iraqi (the Arab gathering list ) holds 6 seats

“These four lists are all involved in article 23 of the election law.”

We asked about relationships with Maliki. He said, “I have no good relationship with the Dawa Party. Maliki has no allies in Kirkuk. We have a Kurdish majority in this province and this means that most of the Kirkuk province is either Sunni or Turkoman. Of the Turkoman half are Shia and half are Sunni but the Shia Turkoman join groups like the Turkoman Islamic Party which is closer to ISCI (the Islamic Supreme Council for Iraq) than to Maliki .

“The province of Kirkuk was ripped apart years ago by Saddam. The districts Kalar and Chamchamal were taken from Kirkuk and were given to Suleimaniyah province. The district of Kifri was given to Diyala. The district of Tuzharmatu was given to Salahaddin, each of these districts were 95% Kurdish. UNAMI are trying to open a new office in Kirkuk to look at these issues and all of these issues are very sensitive. At the last election for instance in Khanakine in Diyala province, the Sunni Arabs did not participate. Everywhere there are problems but Kirkuk is the worst of them because Kirkuk has become like a ball for Baghdad to play with.”

Najat H K Manmi, Head of the KDP (Kurdish Democratic Party) in Kirkuk

We crossed town for a meeting at the KDP offices. The KDP boss of Kirkuk was a very affable man and received us warmly. “We are very disappointed in the delay in elections. We need to investigate the government. Why this delay? We have been prepared for this election since 2005. We blame central government. The people here wanted the vote. The delay hurt democracy in Kirkuk.

“Now Maliki has established a 15th division of the Iraq army bringing in a new force. People from outside the city cannot impose their will on us. We don’t mind so much if they are from Kirkuk. But our biggest problem is not the security. Most of this country’s income is from Kirkuk oil and just look at the miserable state the city of Kirkuk is in.”

General Mawad Muratine Hussein, 15th Division Iraq Army

At that moment the double doors to Najat Manmis office burst open and without any preamble General Mawad marched into the room followed by half a dozen crisply uniformed officers. His was the next appointment and we were running late whereas he was being punctual. He saluted the room and introduced himself. He was one of the Turkoman generals functioning as a brigade commander under the 15th division. Najat welcomed him and we asked him what he was doing in Kirkuk. General Mawad explained that his last posting was in Tikrit. “We have a lot of Sahwah in Tikrit. Here in Kirkuk we have different ethnic problems. There are no Majlis Al Isnad in Kirkuk. There will be none unless they are invited in. Here they have Sahwah and they may be a problem. Here we have ethnic division between the Arabs, the Turkomans and the Kurds. To establish Majlis Al Isnad here in Kirkuk all three communities have to invite them in. As for the 15th division we will not stay inside the city. We will be posted outside and only enter the city if called on to do so.”

General Mawad saluted the room and left as abruptly as he had arrived, his officers following in his wake.

Rifat Al Hamrasii, PUK Chief

We headed over to the PUK (Patriotic Union of Kurdistan) centre which sits right in the middle of the town and has been a target for many insurgent bomb attacks. There we met the new PUK boss for Kirkuk. He led us through the garden and into a comfortable room where we sat together. “We wanted the election now but they insisted that we delay it because of the ongoing situation. The reality is that the situation in Kirkuk is tied up by the Baghdad committees. All the parties in Kirkuk are angry about the elections. The new election law will give too much control to the new government. I don’t think the UN have been involved in delaying the elections. I met UN chief Mr deMistura in Arbil.

“Part of the problem was that the Arabs and the Turkoman have decided to boycott the governorate election. They decided on this boycott because too many Kurdish people come from outside Kirkuk city and they believe the Kurds have faked their papers at the registry office in Kirkuk. But the truth is that many families have been displaced for 20 years now. The Arabs and the Turkomans think that the returning Kurdish refugees will have half of the city. There is a committee coming from Baghdad to investigate.

“Mam Jelal (Talibani) is the Iraqi president. He cannot push to help Kirkuk. Kirkuk is Kaka Masoud’s responsibility (Masoud Barzani). He is involved more; he is in daily contact with Mam Jelal. This is not just a KDP/PUK issue. The grass roots people don’t understand our argument with central government. Now I am afraid that the parliamentary committee will make trouble. They create so many difficult committees that everybody has a different view. Even neighbouring countries like Turkey, Iran and Syria have different views on the Kirkuk issue.

“The Turkoman Front and the Arab faction don’t want a referendum now. They want an independent region for the next 10 years and then the referendum. On the other hand the Islamist Turkoman and the Majlis people (ISCI) want Kirkuk to be an independent province included inside the Kurdistan region. People from Amara visited us and said they needed support from Kirkuk for a federal province that will include Missan and Nasseriyah (Dhi-Qar).”

We asked about the new Iraq army 15th division. “The brigade commander has a good relationship with all ethnic groups in Kirkuk. We know him as Turkoman. However, General Abdul Ameen from Hila is in overall command and he is a stranger.”

Ferhad Talabani, IHEC Director

They offered us lunch at the PUK centre but we were on a tight timetable so we thanked them and headed across the town to the electoral commission office. The place was a hive of activity. We crammed ourselves into the election officer’s small room. “They postponed the election process because they made a parliamentary decision to postpone it. As an election office we were prepared on time. We are ready now. For the displaced people we will open a special polling station.

“Now we expect the committee on Kirkuk to issue a final report on 31st March 2009. Then parliament will vote on a special law on Kirkuk. If they can’t agree on a decision then the prime minister and the president and the speaker of parliament will make a decision on their behalf. Once that decision is made we need just 90 days; the earliest date for Kirkuk election is July 2009.

“I prefer the open list system. As an election officer it’s easier to deal with an open list. At parliamentary level we have nine MP’s for Kirkuk: two are PUK, three are KDP, one is Turkoman Front and three come from the Arab list. As regards to this committee on Kirkuk there has been nothing official but to the best of my knowledge there would be a ten member committee and I have seven of the names. They are: Khaled Shurani from the PUK, Sadi Bahzgi from KDP, Sadaline Angage from the Turkoman front, Mohammed Tamim from the Arab list, Omar Jabouri from the Arab list, Mohammed Bayato from the Turkoman Drouze, and Unadan Khanash for the Christians.

“But the way they are going in 2009 they won’t reach any decision on Kirkuk. Article 23 of the election law will be like article 140 of the constitution. Of course theoretically if the committee won’t decide then the prime minister, president and the speaker will decide.”

Reading between the lines we thought Ferhad that there was implying that there was only a slim chance the president and the prime minster would agree on the same line on Kirkuk.

Ferhad started to paint the broader picture. “For years now people have been waiting for better roads and infrastructure in Kirkuk. The people here want to vote, it’s the same here and everywhere in Iraq.

“In the country as a whole Majlis Al Isnad is a vote winner for Dawa. Sadar is not doing well. The Bathist people from Basra are not doing well.

“Here in Kirkuk we have all sorts of unique problems. Not only do we have refugees coming back from the Kurdish areas but there are refugees arriving from Hawija (a stronghold of radical Sunnis southwest of Kirkuk).

“If any election here is 80% successful that will be great. But in the last election we had 1,460 candidates standing which was a lot to handle and we had to disallow the vote in 14 polling stations because of electoral malpractice. What we really need for the next time are international monitors to observe elections.”

We left the electoral office promising to do our very best to be there with international monitors when elections are finally held in Kirkuk. But before leaving town Surood Kirkuky took us across to the old football stadium which was being used by 473 refugee families as a makeshift camp. This once proud stadium was now host to crowds of children, open sewage drains, mud brick hovels, chickens, and bread ovens. We talked to the some of the families who crowded round us most of whom were proud in their misery. It was a poignant site.

Xan Smiley, Reporter for the Economist

It was well after dark when we arrived back from Kirkuk and sat down to supper with Xan Smiley. He was to join us on the next leg of our journey. Whilst we were in Kirkuk, he had been in Mosul. We asked him for his assessment of the situation further north.

Xan replied, “In Mosul the numbers of attacks were down from 20 a day to 10. They are mostly against army officers and police, though civilians are sometimes targeted. Mosul is the worst place in Iraq, everyone is depressed. There are maybe 5,000 insurgents, but they have a million supporters. And though they don’t control the centre of town they control just about everywhere else. 420 members of IIP (Iraqi Islamic Party) have been assassinated in and around Mosul because of alleged cooperation with the West. Hadba is now the dominant party and their main man is an MP called Najafi. He clearly has a lot of money, but what is not clear is whether the insurgency is coordinated. The rate of assassination has gone up but the bombings have gone down. And even though on paper the rate of attack has decreased the people believe that it is bad as ever.

“There is a slight end of regime atmosphere. The Kurdish alliance will still do well in the governorate elections in January but not well enough. There is mini surge at present with 29,000 Iraq army troops and 3,000 Americans.

“Al Ittilaf al Watani (the Iraqi National Alliance) – the Shiite alliance including Hakim – has support in Baghdad. Sadr – Hakim – Jaaferi – Malaki – Dawa were all Al Ittilaf at one time.

“Allawi is obviously a tough and able man but I am not sure he’ll garner many votes.

“Malaki is making a big effort to reach out to the Sunni traditional tribes around Mosul.

“Our own (Western) political leaders are pushing for oil and gas field development instead of dealing with Kirkuk and the disputed areas. Sharistani (the oil minister) hates the Kurds. That affects the policy of Baghdad. The companies are queuing to sign contracts. At the end of the day you have to reach an agreement.”

. . . Another report from Iraq follows shortly

Wandering through Iraq – Arbil

2009-03-28T12:54:00.003Z

16 November 2008: We are in Arbil, safe and sound after the first leg of our journey. Our first meeting of the day is with Mohamed Ishan, the young minister responsible for the disputed territories, and known by the title 'Minister for Extra-Regional Affairs'. Our friend greets us warmly and we started talking about UNAMI, the controversial UN Assistance Mission for Iraq. Controversial because the same mission, staffed by the same people, which deals with elections support, has also quite unilaterally taken on the role of arbiter in the question of the disputed territories.

Mohamed Ihsan:

"DiMistoura (the UNAMI chief) keeps the disputed territories issue alive," said Mohamed. "He planned to keep pressure on the Kurds to keep others happy. He failed to keep anyone happy. There should be political compromise on the disputed territories. We should sort this issue out.

"The disputed areas issue links, in turn, to the oil law issue and to the revenue law, to the way of running the country. Without sorting this disputed areas issue, you cannot sort the oil law issue, or the Peshmerga issue, or the amendment of the constitution.

"This is why we started five committees. The members of each of the five are the 4 + 1. These are political committees. The four main political parties in Iraq plus the Islamists. So the KDP[1], the PUK[2], Malaki's Dawa[3], ISCI (Majlis)[4], and the Islamists. The five issues the committees deal with are:

§ The Peshmerga
§ Oil law
§ Amendments to the constitution
§ The disputed territories
§ The budget / revenue

"We can't have the Iraqi army entering the disputed territories until their status has been resolved. Turkey won't intervene if the Iraqis agree this matter between themselves. Logistically we are ready for a referendum on the status of the disputed territories. We can accept a compromise. There won't be progress without compromise.

"It was good for us that Malaki intervened in Khanaqin[5]. Maam Jalal (Talabani)[6] told him, 'You are too hard with them'. Even Kaka Masud (Barzani)[7] intervened. Maam Jalal united Iraq.

"If we sort out the oil law, we sort out Sinjar and Khanaqin.”

"A committee has been set up under Article 24 of the constitution. An investigation committee just for Kirkuk. MPs are working to delay the issue. We are investigating the role of senior persons, the property issues, the number of people who entered Kirkuk after 2003. On land there will be no compromise.

"Oil for soil is the way it will go. The oil should go to Baghdad. In all KRG there are just 584 oil wells. Whereas just in Amara (Misan) governorate alone they have 4,000. It's not in our interests to corner our oil.

“The Turkmen are divided. We are campaigning for Turkmen to come back to Kirkuk, but they are not coming back. There are more Turkmen factions than you can imagine:

§ There are the Turkmen of Kurdistan
§ There are the Islamist Turkmen and even they come in two varieties
(a) The Shiite Islamist Turkmen who appear friendly but are being hypocritical and (b) The Sunni Islamist Turkmen
§ There are the Turkmen for Turkey. They are agents for Turkey and totally against us (the Kurds) but these last I respect because I know what they want and the decision as to whether they get it is not in their hands

“There are problems amongst the Arabs in Kirkuk. They have been sold out. They get no respect in Baghdad. And Baghdad is the source of the problem.

“The Sadrists used to cause trouble but they are weak now. The next battle is with Sahwa and Isnad - with all of the remaining Baathists.

“The Sadrists lost the battle in all Iraq. The next battle in the South is between Malaki's Dawa and the rest.

“I've also been given responsibility for disputed areas in the South, like the dispute over Moukaib and Samara districts between Anbar and Karbala. They want to join Karbala. Then there's the Bousaiyah dispute between Samara (Muthanna) and Nasariyeh (Dhi Qar) over access to the border. Bousaiyah wants to join Nasariyeh.

“The Assyrians have a hard time. There are a few of these Christians in Kirkuk but people tried to assassinate them. They are limited in number. Most of them left for Australia. The Assyrians and the Jews who fled Kirkuk left with the intention of never coming back - unlike the Kurds. I have argued for some sort of a reserved area for the Assyrians with their own local government so that they have a better sense of belonging and have their own local government. Otherwise they'll end up like the Jews here. They'll all leave forever.

“As regards the constitutional amendment committee under article 142, it is almost certain that there will be no amendment to the constitution.

“The Kirkuk issue is bigger than the PUK / KDP. It has become a vehicle for the indecision of this nation. It became a symbol for us. We had a chance to take it over in 2003 --- it would have been a piece of cake. Now, we have to work at the political level to sort it out.

“If I was Shabbak I wouldn't vote in the Ninevah election. Either you have no quota or you have a proper quota for the minorities. Mere electoral strength won't sort this issue.

“Alawi has expired politically. I'm not sure where he'll end up. He lost the Kurds. The Shia won't vote for him. The Baathists are divided.

“Malaki is stronger because of Kurdish mismanagement. Let's not fight with Malaki over Kirkuk. Let's fight with him over democracy.

“Dawa and ISCI have the landlord / tenant problem. Hakim thinks he's the landlord of the South, if something goes wrong he feels responsible to fix it. Dawa as tenant likes the good life. They're after enjoying the luxury life while they can, then saying goodbye.

“Over Kirkuk, the Majlis (ISCI) are happy to see Kirkuk sorted because there are no Shiites in Kirkuk and they think, 'If we help the Kurds sort Kirkuk, they'll help us sort Moukaib.

“Dawa don't think that way. They work on the populist issues. Dawa are getting support for themselves but losing the Kurds and losing some Shiites. It's an elitist party.

“But in the December 09 elections, the Kurds will again as emerge the strongest and most cohesive block. It'll be that way for the coming ten years.

“Basrah is looking at Arbil, thinking about federalism. Meanwhile, (parliamentary deputy) Nujayfi from Ninevah is thinking about what he can do to cause trouble.

“Basrah want to be by themselves. If Amarah (Misan) or Nasiriyah (Dhi Qar) joined them it would be a loss for them. Basrah has oil and water and excellent communications with its own airport and seaport.

“On the other hand Majlis (ISCI) want a federation of the entire South as opposed to Governor Waili and his Fadilla party who go for the Basrah on its own option (an autonomous Basrah region). Malaki doesn't want a big Southern region, but if 10% of the voters vote to join or start a region, there has to be a referendum for all. And the day before yesterday, Basrah started that process."

Fayiq Tariq, Deputy Minister for Interior (Internal Security)

We left Minister Ihsan and headed across town to meet the Deputy Minister for Interior. He is kindly lending us some of his people to get us into Kirkuk tomorrow.

"We are a peaceful and democratic nation. But all our requests are answered by iron and fire. Since 1950 the ballot boxes were counted by the central government. We don't have much experience in elections. Elections are like a football match; we want our club to win. But we are impressed that a US citizen of African origin won the election in the USA. We are also impressed that the Republicans have helped him with the transition to power. That strikes us as special.

"Now this time around, the elections here will be less about political parties and more about alliances. In some ways, this makes the elections easier. For decisive and big national elections all our people go to the ballot box.

"It is unfair that the Christians and the Yazidis are only going to get one reserved seat in Ninevah. Why not do it by population? If each 50,000 people voted for one representative (to parliament), it would be a fairer result.

"In places in the disputed territories like Khanaqin, Sinjar and Talafa, every day there are explosions, so that people won’t go to vote. Elections can't flourish under the gun. Khanaqin surrounded by Iraqi soldiers? Why threaten people with guns?"

We asked about the elections in Kurdistan which weren't going forward this January.

"Only those evicted (refugees who've fled to Kurdistan) get the right to vote on 31st January. On May 19th 2009 there will be parliamentary (regional parliament) and Governorate elections, and a referendum on the constitution of Kurdistan.

"As for Kirkuk, let the people vote. Let them choose. We will respect the outcome, even if we lose.

"A dictator is always a dictator. Democracy is in one's blood. When Malaki was weak, he was calling on us for help three times a week. Then he recalled 11,000 former officers from Saddam's army.

"The current constitution is one which 80% of Iraqis voted for and Malaki's government has promised to respect those elections. Now he establishes the Majlis al-Isnad (Support) Councils. And some of the members are former Kurdish mercenaries who collaborated with Saddamm. We call them Jash (a Kurdish expression meaning the baby of a donkey). They were paid to work against the Kurds and were pardoned in 1991. There are Isnad in Mosul and in Khanaqin, and some have been contacted in Kirkuk. Then, there are Sahwa in Takrit and Babil. Plus we have the Jaysh al Mahdi from Sadr and the Badr Brigade from SCIRI (ISCI). Do we need Isnad militia as well?

"In Khanaqin our Peshmerga forces were in a conflict between the Kurds and the Baghdad political regime.

"Sadr's people don't cause problems unless they are instructed to do so. His militia is exaggerated in size. When Alawi was in power, he hit the Sadrists hard.

"The government of Malaki can afford to recruit this militia, but he doesn't give money to implement article 140. The Arab families who occupy lands taken from Kurdish refugees in Kirkuk have each to be given twenty million Iraqi dinars to relocate. Malaki isn't finding that money.

"Budna and Jassan way down in Wasit Province, these are Kurdish towns. Even if we lose them in the referendum, they are still Kurdish towns. But Malaki is saying that even Acre is not Kurdish, and that's a town that's 100% Kurdish."

We talked on about arrangements for our visit to Kirkuk the following day. Then we went back to the hotel to grab some lunch before heading out for our next meeting.

Falah Mustafa Bakir, Minister for External Relations

Falah is close to the Prime Minister of the KRG, and he is the closest thing Kurdistan has to a Foreign Minister. He is a good friend and a man we know well. We started off by discussing a renegade Christian group led by Youadem Yousef Kanna. The group is called the ADM and they perform abysmally amongst the Christian community at elections, which has caused them to become embittered. Initially, this was partly the KRG's fault as they used to have a system for regional elections that disempowered small parties by forcing a minimum vote threshold.

Falah frowned: "The ADM causes great problems. UNAMI is listening to the ADM rather than to the people. Meanwhile Malaki is trying to distribute land to Arabs in the Christian area of the Ninevah Plane. Here in Ankawa, we have a rule that no Moslem may buy land. We do that to protect the Christian community's ownership of the land.

"Khanaqin is 90% Kurdish. It is close to the border with Iran, which is why Malaki wants full control. The Khanaqin incident happened at a time when all the talk was about SOFA. Malaki wanted to shift focus. He was fighting the Shiites politically and he wanted to show that he was doing something against the Kurds. The Khanaqin business could have been sorted peacefully.

"Malaki should say 'Thank you' to the Peshmerga. We built the core of the Iraq army. We could have allowed Iraq to fall back into the sectarianism that has been a feature of its modern history. Malaki became arrogant and overconfident. There are tens of advisors from Dawa for only nine MPs. Are we real partners in government or not? Are we real Iraqis?

"Adel Abdel Mahdi (the leading Shiite politician being backed by ISCI as premier after December 2009) had a positive position on SOFA

"Here in Kurdistan I expect the parliamentary elections in June 2009.

"The Majlis al Isnad are tribal groups. Malaki is reluctant to pay the Sons of Iraq or the Awakening movement so he establishes Majlis al Isnad. It is unfortunate that the USA interfered in these elections. We want the people of Iraq to vote. We want constitutional Iraqi matters to be handled by Iraqis. There has to be a new understanding and alliance between us and ISCI.

We asked what the right, or at least the fair result, would be in the elections in the Ninevah Plain at the governorate level. What would a reasonable balance be between the new Sunni parties and the traditional Kurdish sponsored lists representing the minorities?

"50/50 or 55/45 would be appropriate. But there are too many problems, and a fair election is unlikely. In Sinjar during the last election, they were sent ballot boxes but no ballots.

"The Kurdish leadership has no easy time. Since there is no strong political will from central government, we have to be flexible. The constitution is the guarantor for Iraq to remain united. It is not in our interests to declare independence. We know what is in the best interests of our people. All we want to know is our boundaries.

"There is a strategic agreement between the KDP and the PUK. Unless we are united we are lost. We have agreed to stick together for the next election. Iraq is Iraq. It is a diverse country. Having a national sense of identity is important."

University of Kurdistan, Hawler

We arrived in the fine new Kurdistan University which is located in Arbil. A state of the art place which teaches in English. We were taken around by the rector, an ex- British Brigadier General called Robin Brims who had served in Basra and Baghdad. We were led into a huge hall to meet the students. As is our custom, we climbed up onto the rostrum and fielded their questions. The debate went somewhat as follows. The remarks are from the students and each paragraph below represents a different student voice:

"What if the constitution doesn't safeguard our interests? What if they don't implement article 140 on the disputed territories? The mistake of the Kurdish authority was in working on a constitution we weren't ready for. The disputed areas are really important to us. But in the disputed areas, the Kurdish vote is dropping because the Kurds are disillusioned. People are tired of seeing different seats for the KDP and the PUK in Kirkuk.”

"The disputed areas are the core of the Kurdish system. In Kirkuk, people are tired of voting and making new strategies for voting. The people in Kirkuk vote because they are Kurdish or Arab (Sunni) respectively, and each wants to support their own side. The Turkmen in Kirkuk mostly voted for the Turkmen Front.”

"People had great hope that the KRG would come to an agreement with Baghdad. But the corruption here in Kurdistan makes people think that the KRG is out of touch. Meanwhile the KRG is exaggerating its sympathy for the Central Government.”

"The Sadr group punches above its weight. It gets more attention than it deserves.”

"Most of the Turkmen in Kirkuk voted for Shia and others for the Turkmen Front.”

"After the election you will see small votes. (?) But the majority will vote in the end.”

"If you are talking long term, we need infrastructure. Without that, the system of the Kurds might collapse. The KRG have played a role of being a victim. Better to make more ties and get things done.”

"Most of the Iraqi army need education.”

"The Sahwa want to attack Kirkuk. There are about 100,000 members of Sahwa. The response of the USA is very strange. The KRG faces enormous difficulties. Why should we care about national issues? What have I to do with Basra?”

"In Khanaqin, there are only KRG. Around Khanaqin, you find these Sons of Iraq and Majlis al Isnad. The Majlis al Isnad are not properly formed yet, but we reject this move. Majlis al Isnad are not accepted. The Khanaqin error by Malaki was helpful to the people of Khanaqin. It brought us better protection."

Many of the students came from the disputed areas, and we employed quite a few as election monitors. We left eventually for our next meeting.

Dr Dilshad, Minister for Education

The Minister for Education is an old style politician. He is PUK, and he knows his stuff. This meeting had been arranged by a mutual friend.

"Malaki is creating Isnad groups, but they are not just for security. He uses the authority they give him to stay in power. Sure, one option open to Malaki is creating new groups like Isnad. He has the resources. Hakim's group can also do this sort of thing. However, Hakim speaks out against Isnad.

"Meanwhile there are new Arab alliances emerging in Iraq. Dawa is both Shiite religious and Arab nationalist. The poor relationship between the Kurds and the Dawa controlled central government will affect the election, but the Kurds will still vote.

"But the authority of Malaki enables him to buy votes. Even if all our people participate, Malaki's strategies will still affect the number of seats we get. In some areas, the tensions push the Kurds to work harder.

"The open list system will also affect the outcome. Here in Kurdistan there will be special reserved seats for Christian candidates, which provides a unique feature for our elections.

"There will be lots of new factors everywhere this time. In Salahaddin for instance, in the Governorate elections, if the Arabs participate as expected this time, it will affect the number of seats won by Arab candidates. But throughout the country the Iraqi Islamic Party (IIP) will lose a lot of support.

"Malaki is doing his best to have an effect, but how successful will he be? In places like Anbar he will lose heavily because of the lack of services.

"Khanaqin is of great strategic importance. There was a railway there in the beginning of the twentieth century. There is no longer a railway but it is still the main crossing point to connect Iraq to Iran. On both sides of the border, there are Shiites. That's why it's important to Malaki to control that area. It's at the request of Iran. Besides, Khanaqin has oil. Plus the Kurds did well there in the election. That was a warning. They will not only take Khanaqin and Baquba. They may also take Khals on the road to Baghdad. That's an area on the last border area of Diyala province.

"In my opinion the original Arabs of the Khanaqin area don't mind if the area comes under the KRG, but the Arabs they moved in from Baghdad have different ideas. The KRG is dealing with the disputed areas as best it can. I am not sure we will get them though.

"As regards Kirkuk, the PUK position is that taken by Maam Jalal (Talabani) who says you have to be very patient, ‘revolutionary patience’ - so within the PUK we will not rock the boat. But whether we like it or not, the people are not patient. The people know it's not the PUK / KDP holding things up. All the fighting since 1975 has been over Kirkuk. We even have no problem about Khanaqin itself. Always Saddam accepted Khanaqin as part of the KRG so the main issue is Kirkuk. So if everybody knows the KDP / PUK are doing their best they may be tolerant. Maybe they are not happy with the way we are doing things day to day. We've made a lot of mistakes in Kirkuk.

"There are a lot of political groups within the KRG: Islamic, Left, Right, Nationalist. But until Kurdistan gets its own existence the KDP / PUK will have all the power. There is now a draft constitution for the KRG, the main issue being democracy in the KRG region. We have two parties with different opinions. After the constitution is approved, we will regularise the relationship between the political parties, and the smaller political parties will have a chance to participate. Previously you had to pass a 7% of the vote threshold before you could share in the proportional representation we had.

"And now the government is working hard to establish a mechanism to deal with corruption. It is more effective than before. Because of the student protests (especially at Salahadin University) about unemployment and corruption, we are now in political territory we are not used to before. The students at the IT college even went on strike for four months just over the name of the college.

"As regards the committees talking about Kirkuk, according to my information, there has been no compromise up until now on these committees. But they should reach a compromise; otherwise they cannot go on working for Iraq. Anyone who wants an upper hand plays games over Kirkuk for publicity. Malaki knows he gets nowhere in his attempts to accrue power to the centre.

"Regarding Iran, the KRG thinks its geography is unchangeable, but Iran's thoughts about the KRG are different. Then Turkey is very sensitive about its own Kurdish question. They don't talk about Kurdistan. Which is difficult. Iran is more realistic about the sovereignty of Kurdistan as a neighbouring country. Turkey is trying to be a member of the EU, so they have to accept reality. Our plight is therefore improving.

We asked about the future of the premiership of the KRG.

"There's no red carpet anywhere for anyone to enter politics. Everyone has to try hard. Barham Salah was never Peshmerga even though he's always been PUK. It puts him at a disadvantage. Within the PUK, the younger guys have a chance to be leader. After Talabani, his son will never be PUK leader. For the KDP, it's different. With the KDP Politburo, the heir to the leadership of the KDP will be a Barzani, and that's it."

. . . Another report from Iraq follows shortly

[1] Kurdish Democratic Party
[2] Patriotic Union of Kurdistan
[3] The political faction to which Prime Minister Malaki belongs
[4] The Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq
[5] A predominantly Kurdish area in the disputed territories over which the central government was trying to assert control
[6] The president of Iraq
[7] The president of Kurdistan

Wandering through Iraq – the Ninevah Plain

2009-03-20T16:39:00.003Z

15 November 2008: We set out on the road bright and early heading out for the Ninevah Plain. Peshmerga were provided for protection as we left KRG (Kurdish Regional Government) territory. Our first stop was to be the little town of Al-Khosh, which nestles in the foothills of the mountains and is built around an ancient Christian monastery.

Al-Khosh:

We pulled the cars up to the top of the town and then Georgis, the Governor of Dohuk, led the way as our security spilled out into the streets. We strolled down alleyway after alleyway heading towards an ancient church we had never visited before. There we found Michael Makdazzi, the Chaldean Catholic Bishop of Al-Khosh and Shaikan. He met us in an oblong room, a sort of majlis where various elders of the community were waiting. The Bishop spoke first: "Al-Khosh is a small town of some thirty-five thousand people. Security has been no problem here since the fall of Saddam in 2003. Our problem is accommodating all the refugees from Mosul and Bagdad. The large numbers of displaced people have led to a substantial increase in the number of unemployed."
We said that the situation must have improved since Prime Minister Malaki's recent security operations in Mosul, surely now people were returning to their homes.
"Malaki's operations in Mosul such as they are have made no difference," he said. "Just two days ago two Christian girls, daughters from the same family, were killed in Mosul. Despite that, many Christian families have returned to their homes regardless. Their problem is that they simply can't afford to pay the rent on temporary accommodation here any longer and are forced to either sleep on the streets or go back to where they came from."
We asked about the reduced number of reserved seats for minorities in the governorate elections; Christians would only have one reserved seat on the Ninevah governorate council.
"It would not be so discouraging were it not for the fact of the hostility that this action represents," he replied.
One of the community elders, a Dr Ramzi interjected. "We don't have democracy here and we shouldn't forget what happens to Christians here in this society. We have been the biggest losers since the US entered the war against Iraq. Since the collapse of the Baath Party, radical Islam has taken over, and they regard the Christians as the USA's fifth column. It is hard for me to go back to Mosul."
We asked about a proposal to create a special reserved area for Christians. They aren't in favour of the measure.
"It's certainly hard for me to go to Mosul and it's very hard for us to lose the two chairs that have been allocated for the Christian community on the council. Unemployment is a problem here. And we don't like to cheat people."
The Bishop again took the lead in the discussion: "I feel the solution for the Christians is not one of spreading them to new places and forcing them to leave the country. To dilute the Christian population in this way means that you get rid of them in the long term. Even the UN role is not entirely constructive. There is a sense in which the UN encourages the Christians to leave because of the system that they use for the distribution of aid money. The UN does not save the Christians, it destroys them. They should help these people in the towns in which their roots are. The issue is how to help them to keep their origin and their roots in their own country, Iraq. You shouldn't be helping us to get lost, you should be helping us in our country."
Dr Ramzi: "The Bishop has his point of view but what are people in my circumstances to do? If I can't help my children have a safe life here, then I will take them any where in the world that will deliver a safe life."
Bishop Makdizzi: "Well I hope you can keep your children here but realistically it's not going to work out, it will not happen. In the next election they will further marginalize the minorities and in the forefront will be the Christians. The elections are not like those in the US and the UK. They are not clean here. We have our rights and obligations, whether we be Christians, Shebak, or Yezidi; we should be like anyone else. All have their own cultures and traditions. We have no problems with the Yezidis or with the Kurds. We are all minorities here, however the Christians are about 1.5 million in a country of twenty or twenty-five million. But there is no census. It's impossible to tell exact population numbers. We need a plebiscite to determine whether we join Kurdistan. If we can't get that we have to obey central government and keep our heads down. We have a saying in Iraq: Whoever married my mother is my father."
Another voice joined the discussion, another doctor: "We were made to take on the role of a minority in view of the fact that nothing was done for us by the super power. Here there are some families that don't even have bread to eat. Enough is enough."
He talked on. "We have a democratic federal Iraq now but we have it on paper only. The key is with the super power - what we need that super power can deliver in influence over the central government. As Christians our children and relatives have emigrated already. We are tired. But this is our country. We want to stay."

Basheika

We left the little Christian town and took our convoy on to the little Yezidi town of Basheika, further South on the Ninevah Plain. There we were greeted in a huge open marble hall, high up and palatial. A vast majlis. Just about every elder in the town crammed in behind us.
We were welcomed by Suleiman Silvo, their religious chief. Fruit was served, and we got straight into the discussion.
Suleiman spoke first: "Without the KDP we would have been eaten by the Muslawis. Not so long ago 24 of our people were killed in Mosul. Here we are 85% Yezidi and the rest are mostly Christians."
Jassim Salim Safo of the Majlis Al Baladi (City Council) took over. "The population of the surrounding area is 103,000. The population of Basheika town itself is 75,000. Before the people here used to go to Mosul to work but now they can't do that. We have many problems here, the worst of which is unemployment. And we have to cope with all the Shabak and Christians that come here as refugees. Plus our students can't go to Mosul to study anymore. We are all Yezidis and Christians, all from the minorities. Without any UN support we will be in serious trouble."
I looked round the room and counted about seventy dignitaries seated at the sides of the majlis. Jassim was still talking, "We have Kurdish roots. We need the support of the Kurds."
Suleiman Omar Ali, Head of the Lalesh Education Center continued the discussion, "Without security we would not have survived. Without KRG support the fatwas from the mosques in Mosul to kill all Yezidis and Christians would have been enforced. A total of thirty of our Yezidis were killed in Mosul town. Twenty-four were labourers from this town, from Basheika. All killed on one day, on 24 April 2007. And sometimes they take us prisoner and we have to pay huge sums of money in ransom. Our councillors can't attend the council meetings in Mosul because we might be killed. We have to go and hold them with the Kurds in Arbil.
"Mosul is not like Anbar where there's just one tribe. In Mosul we have Turkoman, Shabak, Yezidis, Christians, all the minorities. But now the place is only good as the base for Al Qaidah in Iraq. The Moslawis are against the minorities. They like to take revenge against us Yezidis because we are with the Kurds. This is more a religious move than a political one. How will you secure the future for the Yezidis? What has Malaki done for us Yezidis? Three hundred of us were killed in Sinjar and what did Malaki do? What was his response?
"The fanatic Moslems are very well organised. Nothing in the elections will work for us. Why should we vote? The next election there in Mosul is a done deal."
We told them in no uncertain terms why we felt they should vote.
One of the elders responded. "We will not leave our right. We will participate. We will be lucky to get one seat though. One seat they have allocated us on the governorate council. One seat and this is a governorate with a population of three million, 650,000 of whom are Yezidis."
We didn't quibble with them about numbers - what's a hundred thousand between friends? The point was well made regardless. There are many Yezidis in Ninevah. In the absence of any proper census who is to say how many, perhaps as many as half a million. We told him we agreed that they will certainly be under-represented this time around.
His response was quick. "Because there are no Yezidis left in Mosul. They are only protected by the Kurds. Why is there so much hatred? The Kurds are Muslim. The Arabs are also Muslim."
We asked what they thought of Malaki's Majlis al-Isnad, his election support councils?
"Majlis al-Isnad wouldn't work here. If a Yezidi were to kill me no problem. But if a Yezidi were to kill a Muslim, it would be a disaster for every Yezidi.
"Arabic speaking Yezidis like us are to be found here in Basheika and in Barzan. Without a referendum we would like something. We would like to belong to Kurdistan region. Wherever Yezidis are they wish to keep their cultural traditions. We consider ourselves as Kurds.
"We met the UN twice in Arbil to discuss our future. They wouldn't come to see us here in Basheika. We had to go to them.
"We are eager for article 140 of the constitution to be applied because without it where are we? If the UN does something to destroy our future what can we do?"

Bartillah

We left the town of Basheika and drove further south to Bartillah. We were in close to Mosul now and this was bad territory. I'd been to Bartillah before. An awkward little town full of trouble. Last time about eighteen months back we'd been driven into the police station at high speed and then driven out. And we hadn't really been welcome. This time things were different. We were taken boldly to the centre of town and the mayor's office where a great feast was spread upon tables on the lawn. Food of every kind. And our arrival was a signal for the banquet to commence. All the town dignitaries dived in. The food was delicious. A great communal plates and no cutlery affair, old fashioned Arabian style. It reminded me of the Gulf as it used to be thirty years ago or old-time Libya. This sort of Arab feast is not a thing of today's world. Nor for the fastidious either as pieces of the tastiest meat are passed to you by your assorted hosts in their fingers. But it's fun if messy and very friendly. And everywhere there were guns. All sorts of guns from the ubiquitous Kalashnikov to old fashioned things with circular magazines that looked like they came from World War One. They probably did.
Afterwards we washed and sat round to chat in the mayor's office. I always thought of this town as Shabak but they told us now that it was 75% Christian and 25% Shabak plus a tiny Muslim minority.
A point here. The Shabak call themselves Muslims to avoid persecution but the Muslims don't accept the Shabak as Muslims and we won't be able to tell you what the Shabak faith is because the religion is so secret that they don't like to discuss it. We have never in all these years of travelling to Iraq quite got a straight answer as to what they believe. We've tried looking it up in Wikipedia but it doesn't tell you much - nor do the encyclopaedias. They have priests called "pir" and a supreme head called a "baba" and their religion is "synchronistic". Now you know as much as anyone. It is probably one of the most secret cults on earth.
There are 18 villages round about with a population of about 36,000. Bartillah town is fairly small. A large village really with a population of about 16,000. They currently also accommodate 210 newly displaced refugee families from Mosul. They had 300 a month ago but a few have returned. Unemployment is high because of people coming home from Mosul where minorities can no longer live safely.
Jalal Lallo, who I think was the mayor, spoke to us together with a senior businessman named George Kako. The following is the gist of what they had to say:
"After 2003 a lot of displaced people came from the rest of Iraq. Then a lot more people came here in 2006 causing congestion. Many people, especially the Shia, fled Mosul. A lot were displaced. Many of the Christians fled. Recently 310 families came from Mosul. Regarding refugees from Mosul - they depend on the food ration card record to survive. There is no arrangement in place for any of the refugee families to vote.
"Here, we are in a stable situation. Much effort is put in by the KRG. 90% of our security comes from the KRG. Bartillah falls under article 140 of the constitution as a disputed territory. For the past five years we have been well protected and we want to keep that security and protection.
"After the events which happened lately, we are really doubting any deal can be made with the people of Mosul. People have come here because they feel safe here. The cooperation and support we get from Mosul is minimal. On paper we are part of Mosul but in reality beyond electricity we get virtually nothing from Mosul. We make requests for projects to the governorate office in Mosul but it's impossible to get anything. The future is black.
"The Christians in Mosul must pay a monthly tax to stay alive.
They call it ‘Jizziyah'.
"There are Kurds in Mosul who are ‘Yes' men. The old Baathists are there too. By different names and shapes. The ones who tell us no one will be killed if we go back. But we don't believe them anymore.
"Not many of us will vote in the elections. Deleting the special seat for the minorities and making it just one kills our enthusiasm. Very few people have registered for the coming election. I go round begging them to register. In 2005 they were more enthusiastic. We did a lot of demonstrations for our rights. Things are a bit better now. There were a lot of Baathists - even here in Bartella - but finally it seems they are convinced the days of the Baath Party are gone."
It was time to head out. We said our farewells to Vice Governor Georgis as he headed back for Dohuk and then we wandered the streets of Bartillah on foot with our Peshmerga. We strolled into the shopping centre. They were friendly there, but as we wandered on I noticed that not everyone was smiling. There was a little tension in the air - just a frisson - one or two awkward glances and civilians making themselves scarce. We decided it might be as well to give the Peshmerga time to regroup around us and so wandered off into a health centre. There we met Dr Khalid who told us his little centre looked after 300 patients a day and was well supplied from Mosul. He was content and felt safe. He was Turkoman, and came from a Turkoman village near Basheika which had 200 Turkoman families.
And then it was time to go.

Arbil

We arrived in Arbil late afternoon and checked into the Arbil International, the place locals call the Sheraton. It's a bit Western in style for my taste but it's OK. We bumped into Rawand Darwish in the reception, the friendly diplomat from the Prime Minister's office responsible for the arrangements for this part of our trip. Then we found Mark Berger, a security man but a great source of all the latest gossip and a good friend. Theb We grabbed something to eat.
Later still we met a Kurdish friend (name withheld) for some more background gossip. This is what he had to say:
"The lower ranks of the PUK/KDP are competing like back in the 70s and 80s. They are trying to buy support. They are setting up competing clubs and societies.
"Kirkuk was easier to resolve in 2003. For both Barzani and Talabani, Kirkuk is a major issue. But the people think the PUK (Patriotic Union of Kurdistan) and KDP (Kurdish Democratic Party) have lost interest.
"When the Khanakine incident (violence between Arabs and Kurds) took place the people didn't like it. People are disappointed by the status of the disputes in Khanakine and Kirkuk. They will not have the enthusiasm they once did when it comes to voting. Still, the KDP and PUK will get enough votes to secure their position within KRG. Outside the KRG in the disputed territories the Sunnis will vote and participate. There the PUK / KDP have a big problem.
"The KRG parliamentary election will probably take place in May. When the time came to change the Premiership here, President Talabani and the PUK said 'Let Nechirvan stay'. But next year (2009) after the election there will be a new Prime Minister. They have a good strategic agreement. There will be a compromise. It won't be automatic but there will be a PUK premier for Kurdistan. The Presidency is a different matter. While Talabani is President of Iraq, Massoud Barzani will remain President of Kurdistan. And here in the KDP we recognise that the family of Barzani lead us and they will continue to lead. But in the PUK that approach is not acceptable. They don't like it. Therefore there is not so much nepotism in the PUK. Talabani would like his son to be his successor but he cannot do it. The politburo of the PUK have to agree. Barham Salah is the prime candidate as Talabani's successor. There is no competition against Barham. They have no other. Of course Vice President Kosrat is one of the most popular leaders in Kurdistan but his health is not good. He has Parkinson's disease. He has just come back from an operation in France. They say his health may improve after three months.
"At the end of the day we get nothing. We are poor. The main issue is the corruption. They talk about it but do nothing. A clean system of tendering could easily be set up.
"The disagreement over the oil is going nowhere. The government here doesn't pay anything to Baghdad.
"On the Peshmerga, the KRG want to get the Ministry of Defence in Baghdad to pay their salaries.
"On the budget. As regards the income from customs, the central government stance is that they should get customs revenue so that they can have transparency. There is no transparency. They have an agreement with Price Waterhouse to audit everything here - but the agreement was held up for a year until Price Waterhouse agreed to write what they required."

. . . Another report from Iraq follows shortly

Wandering through Iraq - Sinjar

2009-03-20T15:45:00.003Z

14 November 2008: The long and dusty road to Sinjar. DEPUTY GOVERNOR GEORGIS SCHLEMON in the lead. Mile after many many miles along the Syrian border - all open. The Peshmerga at our side. This area is the badlands. We move fast to avoid danger. Eventually we make Sinjar. We shake ourselves out of the cars and chat to Georgis. He tells us about Malaki, "On the television and in the media, Prime Minister Malaki says he's bringing security to Iraq, yes. But the reality is different. Actually only yesterday two Christian women were murdered in Mosul."
We spill onto the street and are guided towards a community hall, where, to our astonishment, all the elders of the village and assorted dignitaries are waiting in the sun, arrayed in an impressive line.

Sarbast Darwish: Chief of the KDP, Sinjar.

This unprepossessing mild mannered man is something of a legend. One of the toughest Peshmerga, he runs Sinjar. Which all goes to show - don't judge a book by its cover. He shows us into a large rectangular room and offers us tea. Other dignitaries, dozens and dozens of them, file in behind us. We are still accompanied by STAFFORD CLARRY, Advisor to the KRG, with his son Arjun.
Sarbast starts to talk. "Sinjar is an old city established before Jesus Christ. The Arabs came here about a hundred years ago. In 1516 the Turks attacked the Kurds here. From that day on, this city has been destroyed many times. We are predominantly Yezidi Kurd. Since the establishment of the first Iraqi government, nothing has been done for this area. They have done many things to the Yezidis here in an attempt to drive them out. Even after the fall of Saddam in 2003 they attempted to push the Yezidis out. In 1975, 137 of our villages were moved to new ‘complexes'. More than 18,000 donums of Kurdish land was taken and given to the Arabs. Even the names of the streets were changed. After Saddam was removed, Baghdad did nothing for this area, even though we are connected to Mosul as part of Ninevah Province and we depend on the KRG for our security. Since the fall of Saddam we have had 851 people meet violent deaths here. Even in the local military, they try to decrease the number of Kurds and recruit Arabs.
"This city has a population of somewhere between 325,000 and 340,000. There are Kurds, Arabs, Christians and Turkomans. But 76% of the population is Kurdish. And there aren't many Christians anymore. Most of the Christians have emigrated."
We asked about their problems.
"Roads are important. But our main problem is water. Sometimes we cannot buy water. Health matters, hospitals. There is no employment. Just a few have jobs in the police and in the army.
"The people of Sinjar are afraid, first because they are Kurdish and second because of their religion. Some of the Islamic parties believe killing Yezidis will take them straight to heaven. Fourteen months ago we had that terrible bombing in which 313 were killed and 1,004 injured, all women and children. Since then we have taken more action to secure the area."
Dakheel Qassim Hassoon: Mayor of Sinjar
The mayor was sitting at the front of the room, right next to us. He took the floor and addressed us as the crowd watched and listened. He spoke in English, without a translator. "Since the removal of Saddam, five-and-a-half years ago we have had some measure of freedom. We have 20 members on the City Council (for Sinjar alone - not to be confused with the larger council for the governorate) of whom 18 are male and two female.
"Back in 2003 the US military made some small projects here and the government of the KRG also helped. In 2006 some plans were approved for development funded by the Baghdad government but they were never implemented. In 2007 we submitted further requests and some small projects were implemented. In 2008 there has been nothing so far from Baghdad.
"We are close to the Syrian border. We have had a history of weak mayors. The surrounding area is not controlled by the government. It is controlled by terrorists.
"Contractors cannot bring materials here. The government does not consider the problems of this area important. Meanwhile the Ninevah governorate council doesn't meet. The security situation in Mosul, the provincial capital, is so atrocious that we've only actually held one meeting in Mosul. The rest have been outside the province in Dohuk.
"Our big need is water. We have a big water project we are trying to get underway in Rabia, an Arab village. It would enable 200 families to work in Rabia. But what we really want is the implementation of the Gezirah irrigation project from Mosul dam.
"Malaki just helps the terrorists. Malaki is using government money in the villages to buy votes. He even cooperates with ‘Al Qaidah' and the Arab Islamists from parties like Dawa, Tajama, and the Islamic Party who want an Islamist state."The governorate elections in 2005 weren't ‘fixed'. But they will be fixed this January. At the moment two members of the Mosul (Ninevah) governorate are in seats reserved for Yezidis. One is from Sinjar. When we vote we should have three boxes, one for the local (Town Council) elections, one for the district (governorate) elections and one for the national (parliamentary) elections. At governorate level we should have two reserved seats out of 41.
"This time the number of Ninevah governorate seats has been reduced to 37 and the candidates with the highest votes get through and there is only one reserved seat for a Yezidi candidate."

Sheikh Dakhil Saidoo (Hamoo Pasha): Pasha of Sinjar

The baton was passed to one of the old aristocracy, the local Pasha whose grandfather had been made Pasha by the Brits in 1921. Clearly there was some sort of pecking order in operation - a distinct hierarchy. Hamoo Pasha took up the tale. "We still have just as many problems as we did under Saddam," he said. "Even our cities are being taken because we are Kurds. Even though we try to give one voice to the UN in Iraq they don't listen.
"There is a budget for each governorate and the share of Sinjar goes to Mosul. We never see it."
We asked about the make up of the City or Town Council (the local council for Sinjar as opposed to the provincial or governorate council for Ninevah).
"The City council was elected in 2003. Two were appointed by the Americans because they wanted more Arab representation. The elected members were:
• 9 PDK, • 1 PUK, • 2 Arab independents, • 1 Christian, • 1 Turkomani, • 2 girls, • 1 Muslawi.
This was how he said it - we presume he had it correct as everyone was listening. As we understand it Sinjar currently has a twenty member town council, nineteen as listed above plus the mayor who is independent. The Christian + the PDK + the PUK + the 2 girls represent the controlling Kurdish majority and hold 13 of the seats. The Muslawi + the Turkoman + the two elected Arabs + the two appointed Arabs represent the minority here and hold six seats. The mayor comes from the Kurdish community.
We asked about the new anti-KRG incipient Yezidi party Harakat Al-Islah wa Taqaddan or ‘The Progress and Reform Movement'. One or two KDP faces distorted in disgust. "They separated themselves from the Yezidis and sold themselves for money. They will have no impact at all. None of us has ever sold themselves for money in this way - until now. These people, first they were with Alawi, then they went with Al-Mutluq, now they are with Al-Hadba.
The mayor commented: "We have a problem at governorate level after the January elections. The present governorate council has 40 members (actually 41, i.e. 40 plus the mayor) and nine of the forty are Yezidis. Under the new law the Yezidis will be lucky to get the one reserved seat they are still being allowed."
Hamoo Pasha continued. "The situation here is actually worse than under Saddam. There is terrorism. Our budget allocation never reaches us. The people are driven out, ignored by the West."
The mayor interrupted. "We have just one guaranteed seat on the Governorate. This new limitation on the Yezidis will be made up by inexperienced members on the KDP list and others."
Hadder Barakat Kassoo: High Priest, The Yezidi Community, Sinjar

The mayor pointed to some older people seated across on the far side of the room. "These are three Yezidi religious leaders. If they travelled to Baghdad or Mosul, they'd be killed.
One of the three, the frail High Priest, responded. "I blame the situation. The old nation (The Yezidis) are now considered a minority. Twice in recent years we have been attacked as Yezidis and survived. We continue to manage thanks to KRG (Kurdish Regional Government) support. Even Nasrallah (the Lebanese Hezbollah leader) said ‘kill the Yezidis'. God is against the killing but the things God told them not to do, they are doing. They cut off our food, water, gas. If we didn't get it from Dohuk, the people would go hungry. If you want to save us try and let the government allow us to connect to Kurdistan. If that could happen, we'd all be satisfied. There are half a million of us."

Father John: Christian Priest of Sinjar

The Mayor introduced us to the Christian Priest we had noticed sitting to our right. Father John is a youngish man and represents the combined Christian remnant of Sinjar. The Syriac Catholic, the Syriac Orthodox, and the Armenian Orthodox all worship together now. "Christians here have organised under one umbrella since the oppression of the Armenians when many of us came here from Southern Turkey during the time of the great Pasha in 1915 (a reference to Hamoo Pasha's grandfather I think). Here we live in peace whereas elsewhere in Iraq Christians are persecuted. Thank God we are amongst people who protect us. Despite Maliki's efforts to create stability, even today in Iraq, Christians are persecuted. Christians are 14% of the population here in Ninevah but we will only have one seat in the new governorate council."
We asked about places of worship. It turned out that there were 3 churches, 25 mosques and 45 mazaar temples for the Yezidis. The latter are sort of funerary shrines similar to the type common amongst the Shiites. They are often called ‘kubba' after the shape of their pyramid style roofs. They are used as funerary shrines on the annual saint's day with which they are associated. Yezidis pray at sunrise, sunset, and before they go to sleep.

Sheikh Haji: Yezidi writer

We were being introduced to all the local establishment. A writer next. "Just as the Christians have Rome, the Moslems have Mecca, the Yezidis have Lalesh. The High Priest whom you just spoke to does not speak Arabic. Because of the oppression of our people we face great difficulties. There are 220,000 Yezidis in the Ninevah governorate, but we will just get one seat on the Regional Council. It is unfair."

Wais Nai Badl: Head of the Municipality

"76% of the people here are Yezidi by religion. But 80% of the people here speak the Kurdish. The people here want to rejoin the mainstream. Because of their identity there now has to be the opportunity to join Kurdistan.
"After Saddam Hussein, the killing continues. Two points:
Sinjar is part of Kurdistan
We want the application of the articles of the constitution and oppose any attempt to deprive us of our rights.

Eedo Khalaf: Singar Centre for Cultural and Social Affairs

"If the government doesn't join us to Kurdistan it will become the responsibility of the United Nations."
We were pretty sure they would be disappointed in their ambitions but held our peace. We were fed with a lavish feast, lamb, rice, couscous, bahmia and such. Then we were guided out past assorted reporters and made formal farewells. But we hadn't finished with Sinjar yet. We asked our security team to take us to the Arab community. We suggested a walk through the market. They obliged. They secured the streets but pretty much left us alone to wander amongst the people in the market, almost all of whom were Arabs. They were not cowed, but they were very cautious. We chatted, stopping passersby, nattering to shopkeepers. They spoke of the lack of electricity as their main concern. As for voting, they weren't sure they'd vote. Most of them wanted to keep their heads down. Not make waves. They were glad of the security. They weren't going to kick against the established order in Sinjar.
One other thing: Sinjar is one of the poorest places on earth.
We headed back towards Dohuk, driving into the dark across the Mosul dam, a different route back in order to be sure that there'd be no ambush. On the way back into Dohuk we had a stopover with the Amir (or Prince) of the Yezidis.

Tahseen Saeed Ali (Tahseen Beg): Amir of the Yezidis

Tahseen Beg is an older man with a neat but full beard, like a cross between Father Christmas and Jimmy Hill. We asked him about the little temples that are everywhere Yezidis are.
"Each location has its own shrine. Every year there is a memorial day for the shrine. We pay homage at the main door and pay homage to the tomb of the saint."
How had he become leader, we asked?
"For a hundred years the prince has come from our household. We were five brothers. So when my father died, I inherited the post. I was eleven years old so my grandmother became regent. I am both the secular and spiritual leader. First I have a religious responsibility as head of the Yezidi religious assembly. Then a tribal responsibility both here in Iraq and in the rest of the world, wherever there are Yezidis, in Russia, Georgia, Armenia, Turkey and Syria.
We asked about a holy man we had once met in Lalesh who'd impressed us. "Baba Sheikh is a member of the Supreme Higher Assembly, one of four members each representing a specific group within the Yezidi community."
And Yezidi politics?
"We are with the secular parties primarily. Any religious party would be against the minorities. I am not against anyone. This is a democracy. Anyone who is good to the minorities we will back. Up till now, that's the secular Kurdish party - and if they continue to respond to our rights we will continue to back them. The Yezidis were originally Kurdish after all."
So would the Yezidis vote in January? "We have still not made any decision. The Yezidi Supreme Religious Council will convene to make their decision. But we are disheartened about voting. There is injustice. Many flee. Have you seen the biased stand people take against the Yezidis? There are 400,000 in Ninevah governorate but only one seat in the assembly. It's not fair. It's an irresponsible act."
So many different statistics for the number of Yezidis in Ninevah. Actually who's to say? With the United Nations, the Americans and the Brits pushing hard to stop any census in Iraq we'll never know. The last census was under Saddam and not exactly reliable when it came to this much troubled neck of the woods. We asked about their religion.
"We never worshipped the sun. We worship ‘Hodar' the one God, the supreme creator. Only when we pray do we take the sun as the direction of our prayers. God in our view has no partner. The Yezidis are peaceful. We respect all religions because all religions emerged to serve mankind."
We asked about the recent stoning to death of Joha, a Yezidi girl who fell in love with a Muslim.
"We, the supreme council condemned the crime. There is no religion that legitimises murder." So far so good but then the man betrayed his true colours. His prejudice was hideous, though I don't think he knew any better. He continued, "But there are tribal norms. If a girl has disgraceful behaviour she is murdered."
Perhaps he sensed our disquiet. He tried to make his words smoother but he wasn't that successful. "Anyway, in the past year there have been 500 honor killings in Dohuk. It is not just the Yezidis. I am against the killing of the girl. And I am against the way she was killed. But the murder of Joha has been politicised. She never embraced Islam. She was buried in a Yezidi graveyard and the Yezidi clerics performed the rights upon her death. This practice (honor killing women) is rampant amongst the Iraqi people, not just the Yezidis. We do respect women. For instance my grandmother led the Yezidis twice which indicates how highly we respect women. When I go to Europe I take my wife."
He was making progress but then he lost it again. "But if a woman behaves in a dishonourable way it is difficult for us. In a tribal society when there is a dishonourable woman it will belittle the position of her household and affect them negatively in every way of life. We need to educate the people."
We protested that it couldn't be right to condemn intermarriage. But he wouldn't have it. "Within the Yezidis you have the cast system. It is also taboo to marry cross cast. You also have the broad spectrum of Yezidis who are called the followers. The followers may not marry into the cast."
And was Kurdish the universal Yezidi language? "The communities maintain their knowledge of Kurdish throughout the whole world except in Bashika and Barzan where they speak Arabic."
We left him then as we had an evening meeting at Dohuk University.

Dr Asmat M Khalid: President of Dohuk University

The faculty were there - or a goodly chunk of them. Dr Asmat, Dr Farhan, Behruz, Dowood, Mohamed, Dr Nadhim and Dr Hassan. We all wanted to get straight to work, so there were few preliminaries other than the usual round of tea. Dr Asmat lamented the Kirkuk situation as we settled in. "They should respect our agreements on Kirkuk. Our friendship is affected." We agreed.
Dr Farhan interjected. "We believe article 140 is about all Iraq"
We asked how the change to the open list system would affect future elections.
"The number of seats in parliament will change a bit but not significantly. Currently Hakim (ISCI) has 31 seats (we count it as 33 but he punches well beyond his weight because the independents and others allied to Hakim give him a far higher total); Mukhtadr Sadr has 30 seats; Dawa and its allies have a grand total of about 25 seats; (and Allawi used to have around 27 but now has fewer because of desertions to the communists and the independents); (Jafferi on the other hand only has 3 or 4). As I said, these numbers will change slightly because of the open list system, but not significantly. Allawi and Dawa are working on an alliance."
Dr Asmat came back on the same point. "In an open election you don't have to make a choice to vote for an entire clear list for one party, you can vote for an individual. The consequence is that at governorate (in January) level a relatively large number of independents will be elected. At the later parliamentary elections (in December) this will not apply. But having more independents at local level will make local government weaker because decision making will become more difficult."
Dr Farhan came back. "There are currently more than 40 MPs who are theoretically independent, who are not a member of any party."
Dr Asmat responded, "They are not truly independent."
What would turnout be like at governorate level, we asked. Dr Asmat replied, "This time there will not be such a great attraction for the voting."
Behruz interrupted, "Shiites will be more mobilised to vote."
Dr Asmat added, "In Mosul governorate, if the security is not improved, many Kurds will not vote. Whilst in the South, many are disappointed in their political parties. How strongly they vote depends on what Sistani says. But the Sunnis will go to the polls in very high numbers."
Behruz: "The Kurds will for sure have fewer MPs come the national elections in December."
Dr Asmat: "A week before the elections I will become enthusiastic, but for now I prefer to sleep."
Behruz: "The Sunnis have decided to vote strongly this time."
Dr Farhan: "I agree with Behruz. The Kurdish membership in the national parliament will be less after the December elections.
"As regards Ninevah province, there is a new list, Al Hadba, which is mostly Sunni. Last time the Kurds had the majority in the governorate council with a ‘Brotherhood List' of Kurds, Arabs and Yezidis. The Sunnis feel they should be in control. There will be a high Sunni turnout. If the security situation remains poor the results will be disastrous. Thousands of Kurdish families have already been driven out of Mosul. The Christians have been driven out. They say they will have some centres of voting outside Mosul but it will scarcely deal with the huge numbers of refugees."
Dr Asmat: "Mosul is 50/50 Arab/non-Arab."
Would that mean that a 50/50 split on the governorate council would reflect a fair result?
Mohamed answered: "Kurds are not less than 30% in Mosul, so they should get at least one third of the vote."
Hassan chipped in. "In 1997 the majority of the Mosul population was Kurdish."
Farhan: "KRG relationships with Maliki are very strained. He has called for his own version of the Awakening Councils (by which he means Majlis al-Isnad) in Mosul and Kirkuk.
"As regards Tariq Al Hashimi's Islamic Party, we believe that in most places they will stand on a separate list in future."
Dr Asmat: "A big percentage of the Islamist Party people are foreigners.
"Here in Kurdistan, the people won't have a good broad choice as the only electable parties are the two major established Kurdish parties (KDP/PUK). Perhaps when it comes to the Kurdish Regions autonomous parliament, perhaps the Islamic Union will have one more seat but that makes no difference. All the parties have done what they believe is their best. But they all face big restrictions."
Dr Farhan: "Maybe the turnout for the regional elections will be low but the national election will be a different matter."
Dr Asmat: "Our young people will not accept the deferment of the Kirkuk issue."
Dr Farhan: "Article 24 of the election law deals with the disputed territories including Kirkuk. Masoud Barzani agreed to this. Mam Jalal (Talabani) agreed. They have set up five committees, one for Kirkuk, the other for oil, another for foreign relations, another for the budget, and one more for Peshmerga."
Behruz: "You cannot bring legitimacy onto the table in Iraq. If the Kurds have the power balance they can manage. But only the Kirkuk issue is mentioned, not the whole package, not Sinjar. Why not? Very little is mentioned about the rest of the disputed territories.
"Unami say they are for the procedural implementation of article 140. They have examined four cities:

Mandali
Akra
Hamdaniya
Mahmour

"The report prepared by the High Representative of the UN made big mistakes about Akra because in the Iraqi constitution Akra is included in the KRG. He apologised. Also what he wrote about Mandali amounted to a naive report. He said he's going for more changes. But we don't know whether he's competent."
Dr Asmat: "Unami agreed that the principle of self determination for the disputed areas would not be infringed. We won't accept major amendment of the entire constitution. In some small linguistic detail or other minor matter needs rectifying that's fine, but we won't accept anything beyond that. The starting point for us all is self determination for the disputed territories."
We asked him about the Khanakin incident where central government forces had moved in on an area whose security had been guaranteed by the Kurds. "Malaki has no right to send federal forces into these disputed areas," he said. "Let him send them to somewhere they are actually needed like Mosul or Bagdad."
Dr Farhan: "Maliki is doing this sort of thing in an attempt to improve his position electorally, which it may or may not do. What it will do however is to unify the Kurds."
Said Sinjari: Head of Dohuk Security
We left our new friends and headed across town for a meeting with Said Sanjari, the head of Dohuk security. We discussed our plans for the following day and he briefed us one last time on the new Ba'ath party group in Mosul which he regarded as of considerable importance. He confirmed that Qui-ma Ta Jammah Al Hadba would become the core around which the new broad Sunni alliance would coalesce.
He also gave us a final comment on Hiricat Al-Islah Wa Taqaddan. "This Yezidi group continues to represent a very small proportion of the electorate and is fiercely anti establishment. However even at this early stage it is split into two factions. A new independent faction quite small in size led by a member of parliament by the name of Armin Farhan Tijeri on the one hand and Herakat Moutakadam Yezidi (the Yezidi party) led by Hamed Al Moutda.

. . . Another report from Iraq follows shortly

Wandering through Iraq – Dohuk

2009-03-19T21:40:00.003Z

13 November 2008: Journeys to the new Iraq can be gruelling. This was better than many. We set out with a flight leaving Heathrow at 4:15 pm and got into Amman at 11:15 local time. Ambassador Hambley had left his home in Springfield Massachusetts USA a dozen hours earlier but he is built of sterner stuff than most. The ongoing and expensive Amman – Iraq plane dropped us into Arbil at 4 am where we were picked up by an escort from the Prime Minister’s office. They drove us North East for two or three hours until we finally dropped into the little town of Dohuk for the sunrise. This was to be our base.

Georgis Shlemon: Vice Governor, Dohuk.

We met Stafford Clarry, Advisor to the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG), an old friend who had driven up to Dohuk together with his son Arjun. They joined our party. Our drivers were gifted by the Prime Minister and with us for the duration.

We struck out for the Governor’s Office. Waiting to greet us was Georgis Schlemon, the affable Christian, pipe smoking Deputy Governor of Dohuk. After the usual pleasantries we crashed into chairs and chatted about relationships between the KRG and Central Government, never good at the best of times.

“We needed a new electricity contract signed with the Turks. The Turks said they’d cut electricity if it wasn’t signed within two days. Malaki (Iraq’s Premier) said OK within two days. One week later it still wasn’t done so we sent Malaki a telegram. Two weeks later it still wasn’t done so we phoned him. ‘Yes’, he said, but still nothing happened. So the third week we asked Dr Burham Salih (the Kurdish politician serving as one of the Deputy Premiers) and he got it done. Every time President Barzani goes to Baghdad they meet and reach constructive decisions. Then when he gets back they cancel those decisions. They behave like Saddam.”

With the coming regional elections everywhere but in the Kurdish Region, we touched on the composition of the Governorate’s Council. There are 41 councillors of whom 32 are KDP (Kurdish Democratic Party – with Barzani) and 4 are PUK (Kurdish Patriotic Union – with Talabani), and 4 are Islamic Party whilst one is Communist. “On the current council there are four Christians on the shared KDP/PUK list,” said, Georgis. “In July the Kurdish Regional government decided that Christians should get a quota. In future, three members of the governing council will have reserved seats as Christians both in Dohuk and Arbil. Meanwhile down in Bagdad they cancelled Article 50 of the constitution. In the past few days they decided that Christians will only have one reserved seat in governorates like Ninevah. This instead of the two they used to have. This has depressed a lot of the Christian communities but the rest of the political parties in Iraq decided not to interfere.”

We asked Georgis about the municipal elections which take place at mere city council level but he told us that many years had passed without any municipal elections at all. Furthermore he said, “All the people want here is peace and jobs. They will go with whatever the parties agree when it comes to municipal elections. We will put together an agreed list. For the time being this is the better way of tackling it. The independents stood last time but they didn’t get any seats.” We expressed a measure of surprise that municipal elections in the KRG should be “fixed” using an agreed list formula. But Georgis was sanguine. “For the time being this is the best way to do it. Here in Iraq democracy works from up to down. You get the fruit before you get the tree.”

We asked about the refugee situation, the poor wretches the United Nations insist on calling internally displaced persons. In UN speak IDP is not a refugee because they have not actually crossed an international border. Which is of course nonsense and borders on the offensive when you see poor wretches that have been ethnically cleansed from their homes and have had to flee hundreds of miles and now have nothing.

“Two thousand three hundred and fifty-two Christian families fled from Mosul to Dohuk. In one week they escaped. The government in Bagdad took no action to stop these attacks. They told us that within fourth-eight hours they’d arrest those responsible; that was three weeks ago, and they have done nothing. A lot of the troubles have been incited by Najafi, an Arab MP in Mosul. If he sees two birds fighting in the street he blames the Peshmerga. Politicians like him are still swimming in the back water.

“It’s not so long ago that there was fighting between Barzani and Talabani. Now they have had to agree, now they are starting to build on the basis of their negotiations with one another. Like Clinton and Obama they learnt to make peace. Here in Iraq we should all follow that example.”

We asked Georgis about Kirkuk. “Kirkuk is the heart of Kurdistan. The Kirkuk issue matters to Kurds. Indeed it mattered to our national hero, the late Mustafa Barzani. Barzani could live in a palace had he wanted but instead he liked to live in caves and tents. He lost four of his sons and Saddam killed eight thousand members of his tribe. President Masoud Barzani is similar so I believe that the Kurdish people are in debt to this family and that they will deal with the Kirkuk issue.”

Our discussion turned to the issue of the minorities. “When they appointed me governor they didn’t bother about me being Muslim or Christian. We just wanted the job done.”

Georgis went on to explain that the people of Kurdistan care as much about Sinjar and other disputed territories of Ninevah as much as they do Kirkuk. They do not blame the KRG for the lack of progress made on these territories. “Anything but defeat is acceptable to them.”

Dohuk governorate records that there are about ten thousand Christians in Dohuk but we have thirty schools teaching in our language.

“Keeping this situation is a priority for us, this government has been helpful to minorities and it is our chance to build for tomorrow.”

Tamar Ramadan: Governor, Dohuk

We were lead by Georgis to the office of the governor, another old friend from past visits. After the usual round of greetings, tea and coffee; we asked him when the governorate elections would take place in Kurdistan.

“They should happen this June but nothing has been decided. The Baghdad decision not to hold elections in Kirkuk makes it difficult for us to go ahead. On top of which we have the difficulty of the lack of a census, the register of voters is not clear. The huge numbers of displaced refugees make it difficult. The UN ration card is used for registration for electoral purposes and many come from Iran with such cards and can influence the outcome.”

We asked about disputes between the Kurdish region and the Ninevah governorate of which Mosul is the capital.

“Obviously we have differences with Ninevah but this is because democracy is new for everyone. The same differences that existed before the fall of Saddam have come to the surface. Even before these were complicated issues and now they are now seemingly insurmountable. There certainly won’t be any agreement on the best way forward for the Ninevah government. The Islamic parties, the Sunnis including elements of Tawafuq and the Kurdish parties simply can’t agree between themselves.”

We asked how the refugees, whom the UN calls IDPs, would get to vote.

“This is a difficult question, we are trying to have absentees vote, and the subject is under discussion.”

How were relationships with the central government, we asked?

“We meet four times a year, sometimes less. Sometimes these meetings are with the Prime Minister. Promises are made but not fulfilled. The governors of Basra and Ramadi did not bother to turn up last time. These meetings are not effective.”

We asked for the governor’s help to get to the disputed area of Sinjar where a massive truck bomb killed hundreds of people about a year ago. He said he’d arrange it.

“There’s no date for a referendum in Sinjar yet but eighty percent would vote to join the KRG. One reason is because of the presence of these terrorist groups.”

We said that some had suggested that the ballot in Sinjar in 2005 had been less than transparent.

“The problem was the non participation of the Arab parties in the December 05 elections and that’s not just in Sinjar. It’s been a problem in many of the disputed areas.”

Georgis interrupted the discussion; it was Thursday afternoon and if we wanted security support for travel to Sinjar the next day we should get across to the security chief at once. We nodded our assent, thanked the governor and left.

(name withheld): Security Chief, Dohuk

(name withheld) was from Sinjar. He had been forewarned of our intention to visit his birthplace and was eager to help. “No place in the world is 100% safe,” he said. “But the Ashaish (security forces) and the Peshmerga are in control,” he assured us. He’s responsible for security in Sinjar, Zanar, Wana, Tulkeif, Bashika, Barzan, Bartullah, Handanial and Karakosh. All the difficult places. “The terrorists want to attack Dohuk but my security stops them. Even before the fall of Saddam, I had my team ready. We have forms for each individual that enters the KRG. It runs smooth.”

Should US troops stay in Iraq we asked him?

“If the US withdrew all hell would break loose in Mosul. Everything would depend on Peshmerga forces in the event of US withdrawal.” They meet frequently with US forces he explained.

What was Sinjar like we asked?

He explained that Sinjar was 80% Kurdish and 20% Arab. Of the Kurds 60% to 65% were Kurdish speaking Yazidis.

He introduced us to (name withheld), the man responsible for security in Sinjar. He’d watch over us tomorrow. “There’s trouble in so many places,” commented (name withheld). “In Tulkeif they put notes under the doors – Leave or die. 27 Christian families fled. We gave them refuge. The Pope sent me a letter to say thanks.” He showed us the letter. He’d had it framed. He talked of the Sahwah (Awakening) movement, the US sponsored tribal militia groups that have been fostering security in today’s Iraq. “There are no Sahwah in Kurdistan, nor in Ninevah unless you go South of Mosul. If Sahwah came into Mosul, they’d bring terror.”

We asked who held political sway in Mosul, given the fact that the Arabs hadn’t voted in the previous governorate election, there was no clear indication of where everyone stood.

“Alawi hasn’t got much following in Mosul. The Sunni vote will be anti-Kurd. The (Baathist) Sunnis have two wings:

1. The Mohamed Younis Al Ahmed wing (The Traditional Baathist faction)
2. The Izzat Ibrahim Ad-Douri wing (The Islamist Baathist faction)

“There is infighting between them. Izzat Ad Douri himself is in Yemen they say. Mohamed Younis Ahmed is in Syria. Before they vote these Baathists gather and decide where to vote. I doubt they’ll vote in substantial numbers for Alawi. The Mosul Sunni community seem to be supporting Qai’ma Ta Jammah Al Hadba which loosely translates as the ‘List of the Mosul Group’.

“The Shabak from Mosul are also persecuted. There are 400,000 Shabak in Iraq, of whom 700 have been martyred since 2003 (the Shabak are a secret religion, quasi-Moslem in character but very distant indeed from mainstream Islam, similar to the Allawite faith in Syria but without the quasi-deification of Imam Ali that hardcore Allawites subscribe to). In Mosul there’s probably a balance between the Sunni Arab population on the one hand and the combined populations of the various minority groups on the other (of which the Kurds and Turkomans dominate). It is difficult to extrapolate that into a balance at the elections. Elections always provide surprises. Violence is possible at the forthcoming governorate elections – but unlikely.”

We discussed the problems that the Yezidis had with insufficient numbers of polling stations in October 2005. He had no knowledge of that but said that there was always some ballot stuffing in Mosul. “Mosul is famous for its electoral indiscretions. The rest of the country is far better.”

We asked how the Sunni Islamic parties were doing. He didn’t think they’d ever done that well. The Arab Sunnis are too secular. “The KIU (Kurdish Islamic Union) stood separately here in Dohuk last time but then joined the alliance when their own vote wasn’t sufficient to do them any good. The KIU is stronger in Suleimaniyeh.”

We were heading towards the late afternoon and had had no lunch. Sinjari kindly offered to take us to lunch at the Malta restaurant. Stafford and Arjun joined us, together with Sinjari’s man, (name withheld).

We then headed back to the hotel and crashed. Later we were invited out to supper with KaKa Georgis (KaKa is a term of respect in Kurdistan, translatable as “Uncle”) and Stafford promised to bring along an expert on the Yezidi faith.

Jasim Elias Murad: Theologian, The Yezidi Community, Dohuk

We walked the comparatively short distance from our hotel to the Dohuk Chamber of Commerce. There they had a hideaway restaurant on the top floor. We smoked shisha, drank Arak, and ate mezza in the dusky environment until we were joined by Jassim, a spokesman for the Yezidis. After the usual formalities we settled back to quiz Jassim. As we wondered whether the Yezidi commitment to the KRG was cupboard love, we decided to ask him.

“If they didn’t pay them would they be loyal you mean? The Yezidis are an ideological people firmly committed to the governments of Barzani and Talabani. That’s not to say we don’t have our traitors. There’s a new party comprising anti-Kurdish Yezidis called Harakat Al-Islah wa Taqaddan which roughly translates as ‘The Progress and Reform Movement’. It is scarcely more than idea so far. A sort of incipient Yezidi Party. But it has garnered some support.

“Most Iraqis aren’t interested in democracy. They are interested in electricity, water and jobs. When you are hungry democracy doesn’t feed you. If there’s no material progress you are going to have a hard time making intellectual progress.”

We’d heard about a renegade Yezidi party that we were told had joined the Hadba list. “The list of Hadba embraces many Baathists including Mohamed Younis Al Ahmed. He’s the secular one, the real Baathist. Then there’s Izzat Al Douri, who is Saddam’s man. He was in the forefront of those embarrassing religious reforms under Saddam. After ’96 he closed all night clubs and bars.”

That seemed odd. I remember visiting Saddam’s Iraq and there didn’t seem to be any shortage of alcohol anywhere I went. Still, perhaps I got special treatment. Jassim shrugged. “Maliki also closed the nightclubs in Baghdad a month ago in a quasi-religious move,” he said.

We asked him about the Yezidi faith, explaining that we understood that the Yezidis regarded the Peacock angel, Satan, as having been forgiven his sins by God and that the whole earth was now striving to undergo the same process of redemption.

“The Peacock Angel is not Satan – not Lucifer. He is the symbol of all goodness. He is an extension of Nabu, the chief deity of Babylon. The Taous Melakah. Yezidi religion is unique. Millennia ago the Turkish invasion imported Mithra worship to Iraq. The followers of Nabu were coerced into worshiping Mithras. But they kept their ancient belief in a supreme creator, variously known as Azdar or Qhorda. Always they held to that belief. And the Yezidis believe in reincarnation.”

We asked about the incident just over a year ago, when the Yezidis of Basheika stoned a young Yezidi woman named Dohar to death because she had fallen in love with a Muslim boy from the same town.

“Those Yezidis who murdered Dohar are animals. After that the Arabs murdered 24 Yezidi men in Mosul in retaliation.”

Georgis threw in a comment. Basheika, the town where the girl was killed is in the Ninevah Plain. “There are a wide range of peoples in the Ninevah Plain, some are Arabs. Unusually the Yezidis of Basheika speak Arabic rather than Kurdish. And not all Christians are pro-Kurdish. Most are but there’s a group called the ADM (Assyrian Democratic Movement) who are anti-Kurdish Regional Government. The Yezidis are almost all pro-KRG and there are half a million of them in Iraq.”

We asked what the main Yezidi festivals were. Jasim answered, “We keep the Summerian New Year, which falls on the first Wednesday of the first week of the Eastern April.”

Georgis commented, “Iraq is a beautiful garden of flowers. But there is no good gardener.”

We asked about Sinjar, the town we would visit tomorrow.

“A water system like Al Gezirah was planned to irrigate Sinjar back in 1954 under the monarchy. If they were ever to finish it the whole area would beautiful. Sinjar gets no development money from the central government. Nothing. One of the most drastic problems in Iraq is the corruption. It is corrosive.”

. . . Another report from Iraq follows shortly