Common Sense Investing

June Historical Sector and S&P 500 Analysis

2015-05-29T18:50:00.003-04:00

Though I do not believe there is enough historical evidence to support the “Sell in May and Go Away” approach to investing, the data for June does suggest that may not have been a bad approach over the last ten months of June.

After removing the high and low returns for statistical analysis there appears to have been only one clear winner over the last 25, 20, 15 and 10 months of June. Energy stocks have been the best sector performer for the trailing 25, 20, and 15 years during the month, and the third best performing sector over the last 10 years.

The last ten Junes have been very challenging for the markets. This includes a four year stretch between 2010 and 2013 where the S&P 500 went down every year. The markets weakness over the last ten years during June should help explain why the “defensive” utility sector was the best performing sector during this period of time.

In my opinion the data does not show any clear cut sector to avoid in June.

Based on my research I will be weighting the AFL Select Sector Folio as follows for this June:

75% Energy Stocks

25% Utilities

June	Cons Disc	Health Care	Energy	Financials	Cons Staples	Technology
1990	10.52%	12.23%	9.42%	6.71%	8.71%	12.78%
1991	5.96%	4.40%	1.46%	5.22%	3.66%	3.13%
1992	0.57%	3.16%	5.67%	3.13%	0.89%	1.16%
1993	6.49%	5.07%	4.07%	-1.03%	3.15%	8.62%
1994	-2.27%	0.56%	1.92%	4.25%	-0.73%	-2.02%
1995	1.72%	1.16%	2.33%	5.13%	3.59%	3.65%
1996	3.82%	1.77%	1.62%	1.99%	3.69%	3.35%
1997	7.15%	10.34%	10.42%	5.46%	3.40%	12.43%
1998	0.27%	-3.52%	-6.36%	-2.40%	0.69%	-6.72%
1999	-2.75%	-0.12%	-2.59%	-3.49%	-1.63%	-0.98%
2000	-2.44%	1.49%	11.52%	5.50%	3.89%	-11.58%
2001	3.11%	4.22%	0.55%	4.03%	2.57%	-4.12%
2002	-0.45%	-3.67%	-2.72%	0.03%	0.50%	-5.80%
2003	5.87%	8.95%	12.68%	6.18%	6.44%	12.27%
2004	-0.16%	-0.70%	-1.09%	1.95%	-1.08%	5.62%
2005	5.71%	2.70%	3.98%	2.62%	3.21%	9.25%
2006	-3.39%	-3.25%	-3.87%	-3.82%	-0.31%	-8.17%
2007	3.29%	1.30%	7.80%	2.45%	1.53%	4.29%
2008	1.18%	2.52%	7.86%	-2.79%	1.10%	5.85%
2009	0.72%	5.67%	17.26%	10.96%	6.41%	4.45%
2010	-6.75%	-7.79%	-12.69%	-9.72%	-6.91%	-7.01%
2011	0.17%	2.14%	-4.30%	-2.85%	1.30%	-1.56%
2012	-5.70%	-3.64%	-10.97%	-7.53%	-4.20%	-9.14%
2013	-0.03%	-1.39%	-0.39%	-1.30%	-0.69%	-1.25%
2014	2.10%	5.15%	5.96%	2.39%	0.48%	4.50%
# Of Up Years	16	17	16	16	18	14
25 Year Mean	1.35%	1.93%	2.39%	1.38%	1.65%	1.38%
Standard Deviation	3.37	3.68	5.92	3.79	2.5	6.2

Trailing 10 Yr Mean	-0.21%	0.69%	0.76%	-1.35%	0.30%	0.14%
Trailing 15 Yr Mean	0.32%	0.96%	2.08%	0.53%	1.13%	-0.24%
Trailing 20 Yr Mean	0.72%	1.15%	1.80%	0.75%	1.36%	0.47%

June	Telecom	Nat Resources	Real Estate	Utilities	Industrials	S&P 500 TR
1990	8.43%	7.60%	0.88%	4.58%	6.82%	9.75%
1991	0.75%	3.07%	1.07%	0.20%	5.72%	4.31%
1992	-0.65%	3.91%	3.21%	1.95%	-0.22%	0.49%
1993	3.30%	3.56%	-0.69%	0.28%	4.39%	2.68%
1994	-0.22%	1.69%	1.28%	-2.50%	-1.88%	1.64%
1995	2.49%	1.65%	4.00%	3.74%	1.67%	4.00%
1996	2.85%	1.18%	2.55%	0.74%	1.39%	2.58%
1997	9.91%	8.02%	2.90%	4.81%	7.88%	6.09%
1998	-4.39%	-7.48%	-1.15%	-1.36%	-2.93%	-1.72%
1999	-0.53%	-3.90%	2.28%	2.51%	-1.42%	-2.36%
2000	-8.97%	7.99%	1.19%	-1.06%	-3.64%	-2.05%
2001	-4.96%	0.86%	2.02%	-1.84%	3.64%	0.67%
2002	-1.52%	0.27%	1.42%	-3.46%	-0.67%	-0.74%
2003	9.52%	10.56%	5.54%	0.30%	4.22%	5.27%
2004	0.73%	0.66%	6.34%	1.72%	2.08%	1.37%
2005	5.42%	2.48%	3.15%	0.73%	4.86%	3.18%
2006	-6.81%	-3.39%	-2.81%	-0.16%	-2.91%	-2.88%
2007	7.14%	5.97%	0.59%	3.41%	5.77%	3.49%
2008	5.24%	6.98%	0.08%	3.67%	2.30%	1.30%
2009	7.87%	15.98%	3.06%	6.13%	4.25%	5.59%
2010	-5.47%	-10.68%	-5.25%	-6.69%	-8.40%	-7.99%
2011	-0.17%	-4.16%	1.36%	0.30%	-2.56%	-1.13%
2012	-6.55%	-12.13%	-4.30%	-2.82%	-6.53%	-6.01%
2013	1.15%	-5.16%	-2.12%	0.19%	-1.55%	-1.01%
2014	0.74%	4.52%	1.12%	4.23%	1.19%	2.07%
# Of Up Years	14	18	19	17	14	16
25 Year Mean	1.06%	1.57%	1.16%	0.88%	1.04%	1.17%
Standard Deviation	4.66	5.27	2.21	2.38	3.51	3

Trailing 10 Yr Mean	0.94%	-0.43%	-0.38%	1.19%	-0.12%	-0.12%
Trailing 15 Yr Mean	0.22%	1.30%	0.79%	0.40%	0.36%	0.27%
Trailing 20 Yr Mean	0.71%	0.91%	1.16%	0.87%	0.51%	0.65%

Rank	25 Year	20 Year	15 Year	10 Year
1	Energy	Energy	Energy	Utilities
2	Health Care	Cons Staples	Nat Resources	Telecom
3	Cons Staples	Real Estate	Cons Staples	Energy
4	Nat Resources	Health Care	Health Care	Health Care
5	Technology	Nat Resources	Real Estate	Cons Staples
6	Financials	Utilities	Financials	Technology
7	Cons Disc	Financials	Utilities	Industrials
8	S&P 500 TR	Cons Disc	Industrials	S&P 500 TR
9	Real Estate	Telecom	Cons Disc	Cons Disc
10	Telecom	S&P 500 TR	S&P 500 TR	Real Estate
11	Industrials	Industrials	Telecom	Nat Resources
12	Utilities	Technology	Technology	Financials

*** Red Denotes A Negative Mean Return For That Time Period ***

Thank you.

Jon R. Orcutt is the author of “Master the Markets with Mutual Funds: A Common Sense Guide to Investing Success; Founder and Author of the Allocation for Life Investment Newsletter, found at www.allocationforlife.com ; and President and Senior Portfolio Manager at the AFL Advisory Group, LLC

May Historical Sector & S&P 500 Analysis

2015-04-30T13:38:00.000-04:00

After removing the high and low returns for statistical analysis, the historical data shows that energy stocks have been the best performing sector over the trailing twenty-five, twenty and fifteen months of May. Telecom stocks were the leading sector the past ten years during the month of May. My faith in that being the beginning of a trend is not very strong. Telecom stocks are one of the worst performing sectors throughout the trailing twenty-five, twenty and fifteen years during the month of May.

The practice to “Sell in May and Go Away” does not seem to be based on hard data. Again, after removing the high and low returns, the S&P 500 has been able to achieve a positive mean return for every time period examined for the month of May.

Utilities seem to be the only clear-cut laggard in May over the last twenty-five years. On average, utility stocks have been the worst performing sector for the trailing 25, 20 and 15 months of May and a bottom half performer over the last ten years during May.

Based on my research, I will be weighting the AFL Select Sector Folio as follows:

75% Energy Stocks

25% Telecom Stocks

For historical performance data please go to www.allocationforlife.com

May	Cons Disc	Health Care	Energy	Financials	Cons Staples	Technology
1990	10.52%	12.23%	9.42%	6.71%	8.71%	12.78%
1991	5.96%	4.40%	1.46%	5.22%	3.66%	3.13%
1992	0.57%	3.16%	5.67%	3.13%	0.89%	1.16%
1993	6.49%	5.07%	4.07%	-1.03%	3.15%	8.62%
1994	-2.27%	0.56%	1.92%	4.25%	-0.73%	-2.02%
1995	1.72%	1.16%	2.33%	5.13%	3.59%	3.65%
1996	3.82%	1.77%	1.62%	1.99%	3.69%	3.35%
1997	7.15%	10.34%	10.42%	5.46%	3.40%	12.43%
1998	0.27%	-3.52%	-6.36%	-2.40%	0.69%	-6.72%
1999	-2.75%	-0.12%	-2.59%	-3.49%	-1.63%	-0.98%
2000	-2.44%	1.49%	11.52%	5.50%	3.89%	-11.58%
2001	3.11%	4.22%	0.55%	4.03%	2.57%	-4.12%
2002	-0.45%	-3.67%	-2.72%	0.03%	0.50%	-5.80%
2003	5.87%	8.95%	12.68%	6.18%	6.44%	12.27%
2004	-0.16%	-0.70%	-1.09%	1.95%	-1.08%	5.62%
2005	5.71%	2.70%	3.98%	2.62%	3.21%	9.25%
2006	-3.39%	-3.25%	-3.87%	-3.82%	-0.31%	-8.17%
2007	3.29%	1.30%	7.80%	2.45%	1.53%	4.29%
2008	1.18%	2.52%	7.86%	-2.79%	1.10%	5.85%
2009	0.72%	5.67%	17.26%	10.96%	6.41%	4.45%
2010	-6.75%	-7.79%	-12.69%	-9.72%	-6.91%	-7.01%
2011	0.17%	2.14%	-4.30%	-2.85%	1.30%	-1.56%
2012	-5.70%	-3.64%	-10.97%	-7.53%	-4.20%	-9.14%
2013	2.45%	2.25%	0.87%	3.31%	-0.95%	4.41%
2014	1.81%	3.05%	1.43%	1.16%	1.94%	3.73%
# of Up Years	17	18	17	17	18	15
Mean	1.44%	1.99%	2.25%	1.53%	1.70%	1.60%
Standard Deviation	3.37	3.56	5.85	3.77	2.49	6.19

Trailing 10 Yr Mean	0.07%	0.88%	0.35%	-0.93%	0.45%	0.75%
Trailing 15 Yr Mean	0.48%	1.08%	1.83%	0.79%	1.22%	0.14%
Trailing 20 Yr Mean	0.85%	1.24%	1.62%	0.94%	1.43%	0.74%

	Telecom	Nat Resources	Real Estate	Utilities	Industrials	S&P 500 TR
1990	8.43%	7.60%	0.88%	4.58%	6.82%	9.75%
1991	0.75%	3.07%	1.07%	0.20%	5.72%	4.31%
1992	-0.65%	3.91%	3.21%	1.95%	-0.22%	0.49%
1993	3.30%	3.56%	-0.69%	0.28%	4.39%	2.68%
1994	-0.22%	1.69%	1.28%	-2.50%	-1.88%	1.64%
1995	2.49%	1.65%	4.00%	3.74%	1.67%	4.00%
1996	2.85%	1.18%	2.55%	0.74%	1.39%	2.58%
1997	9.91%	8.02%	2.90%	4.81%	7.88%	6.09%
1998	-4.39%	-7.48%	-1.15%	-1.36%	-2.93%	-1.72%
1999	-0.53%	-3.90%	2.28%	2.51%	-1.42%	-2.36%
2000	-8.97%	7.99%	1.19%	-1.06%	-3.64%	-2.05%
2001	-4.96%	0.86%	2.02%	-1.84%	3.64%	0.67%
2002	-1.52%	0.27%	1.42%	-3.46%	-0.67%	-0.74%
2003	9.52%	10.56%	5.54%	0.30%	4.22%	5.27%
2004	0.73%	0.66%	6.34%	1.72%	2.08%	1.37%
2005	5.42%	2.48%	3.15%	0.73%	4.86%	3.18%
2006	-6.81%	-3.39%	-2.81%	-0.16%	-2.91%	-2.88%
2007	7.14%	5.97%	0.59%	3.41%	5.77%	3.49%
2008	5.24%	6.98%	0.08%	3.67%	2.30%	1.30%
2009	7.87%	15.98%	3.06%	6.13%	4.25%	5.59%
2010	-5.47%	-10.68%	-5.25%	-6.69%	-8.40%	-7.99%
2011	-0.17%	-4.16%	1.36%	0.30%	-2.56%	-1.13%
2012	-6.55%	-12.13%	-4.30%	-2.82%	-6.53%	-6.01%
2013	-1.55%	0.36%	-5.43%	-5.34%	4.82%	2.34%
2014	3.88%	0.50%	2.62%	1.27%	2.31%	2.35%
# of Up Years	13	19	19	16	15	17
Mean	1.08%	1.64%	1.09%	0.51%	1.37%	1.32%
Standard Deviation	4.73	5.05	2.51	2.59	3.55	2.97

Trailing 10 Yr Mean	0.99%	-0.24%	-0.58%	0.13%	0.82%	0.33%
Trailing 15 Yr Mean	0.25%	1.42%	0.67%	-0.25%	0.94%	0.55%
Trailing 20 Yr Mean	0.73%	0.99%	1.07%	0.40%	0.93%	0.85%

	25 Year	20 Year	15 Year	10 Year
1	Energy	Energy	Energy	Telecom
2	Health Care	Cons Staples	Nat Resources	Health Care
3	Cons Staples	Health Care	Cons Staples	Industrials
4	Nat Resources	Real Estate	Health Care	Technology
5	Technology	Nat Resources	Industrials	Cons Staples
6	Financials	Financials	Financials	Energy
7	Cons Disc	Industrials	Real Estate	S&P 500 TR
8	Industrials	Cons Disc	S&P 500 TR	Utilities
9	S&P 500 TR	S&P 500 TR	Cons Disc	Cons Disc
10	Real Estate	Technology	Telecom	Nat Resources
11	Telecom	Telecom	Technology	Real Estate
12	Utilities	Utilities	Utilities	Financials

*** Red denotes a negative mean return ***

Jon R. Orcutt

Founder of the Allocation for Life Investment Newsletter

April Historical Sector and S&P 500 Analysis

2015-03-31T10:15:00.000-04:00

After removing the high and low returns for statistical analysis, the data clearly shows that energy stocks have been the undisputed industry leader in the month of April for the last twenty-five years. The energy sectors performance has been so strong, that is also the leading sector in April for the trailing twenty, fifteen and ten year time periods. However, over the last fifteen years the data showed a virtual tie between the energy and real estate sectors for the top position.

As many of you know, April has never been considered a month of worry for our domestic stock markets. Again, after removing the outliers for each time period examined, the data shows that the S&P 500 TR has enjoyed mean returns of 1.81%, 2.33%, 2.06% and 2.15% for the trailing twenty-five, twenty, fifteen and ten months of April.

No particular sector has shown a tremendous amount of weakness during the month of April. However, when compared to the other sectors and the S&P 500, technology and health care stocks have been the traditional laggards in April.

For the month of April I will be weighting my AFL Select Sector Folio as follows:

87.5% Energy

12.5% Real Estate

April	Cons Discr	Health Care	Energy	Financials	Cons Staples	Technology
1990	-1.79%	0.09%	-5.95%	-3.80%	-0.39%	-2.08%
1991	0.07%	-2.01%	0.45%	0.48%	-1.52%	-1.68%
1992	-1.42%	-5.36%	5.08%	2.47%	-1.15%	-2.45%
1993	-2.75%	1.28%	4.63%	-3.84%	-3.88%	-2.67%
1994	0.86%	0.46%	5.25%	2.71%	-1.12%	-0.68%
1995	-0.51%	-0.97%	6.28%	3.08%	2.18%	5.25%
1996	4.41%	2.06%	7.90%	0.38%	-1.83%	10.41%
1997	1.46%	-0.16%	-1.18%	4.82%	3.94%	3.80%
1998	-0.33%	0.81%	2.73%	1.62%	-1.85%	4.07%
1999	1.29%	-4.00%	16.44%	6.80%	1.21%	2.70%
2000	-3.99%	-1.37%	0.32%	-2.70%	2.72%	-11.48%
2001	6.26%	7.73%	12.08%	3.38%	1.01%	19.74%
2002	-0.17%	-6.73%	0.60%	0.10%	2.46%	-12.17%
2003	8.17%	5.66%	1.50%	11.30%	5.08%	10.05%
2004	-2.51%	1.85%	-0.43%	-5.17%	1.44%	-7.29%
2005	-5.27%	2.80%	-6.43%	-1.46%	-3.06%	-4.30%
2006	1.16%	-3.43%	6.53%	2.83%	0.70%	0.32%
2007	1.63%	6.03%	6.11%	2.99%	3.58%	3.47%
2008	3.30%	2.57%	11.31%	4.82%	-0.18%	7.48%
2009	16.14%	0.51%	14.00%	16.49%	7.86%	13.14%
2010	5.23%	-1.65%	2.72%	2.27%	-0.44%	2.43%
2011	3.99%	6.86%	0.32%	1.72%	5.80%	3.12%
2012	0.95%	-0.06%	-0.90%	-1.86%	0.20%	-2.85%
2013	3.39%	3.77%	-0.47%	2.04%	3.31%	-0.34%
2014	-1.49%	-3.36%	4.36%	-2.12%	1.59%	-3.66%
# Of Up Years	15	14	19	18	15	13
Trailing 25 Yr Mean	1.18%	0.54%	3.62%	1.65%	1.03%	1.16%
Standard Deviation	2.99	3.13	4.66	3.43	2.3	5.7

Trailing 10 Yr Mean	2.27%	1.33%	3.75%	1.67%	1.82%	1.25%
Trailing 15 Yr Mean	1.99%	1.55%	3.39%	1.79%	2.10%	0.78%
Trailing 20 Yr Mean	1.79%	1.00%	4.10%	2.22%	1.72%	2.02%

April	Telecom	Nat Resources	Real Estate	Utilities	Industrials	S&P 500 TR
1990	-4.20%	-6.08%	-1.19%	-4.19%	-3.09%	-2.49%
1991	1.31%	0.98%	1.17%	0.23%	-1.34%	0.24%
1992	2.79%	4.17%	-0.99%	2.15%	-1.10%	2.94%
1993	-1.54%	2.94%	-3.35%	-0.48%	1.46%	-2.42%
1994	0.34%	2.91%	0.67%	1.67%	0.22%	1.28%
1995	1.74%	3.73%	-0.91%	2.30%	4.93%	2.94%
1996	4.23%	5.48%	-0.03%	0.27%	1.41%	1.47%
1997	2.44%	-0.50%	-3.48%	0.86%	2.84%	5.97%
1998	0.55%	2.45%	-2.99%	-1.71%	0.70%	1.01%
1999	5.83%	16.60%	10.42%	6.55%	12.97%	3.87%
2000	-10.59%	-0.76%	5.47%	-3.79%	2.39%	-3.01%
2001	13.96%	10.52%	2.32%	6.01%	8.55%	7.77%
2002	-10.82%	0.63%	1.33%	-3.74%	-4.04%	-6.06%
2003	9.69%	1.16%	4.02%	7.04%	10.47%	8.24%
2004	-5.15%	-2.34%	-13.70%	-2.25%	-0.41%	-1.57%
2005	-2.74%	-6.46%	4.52%	0.73%	-6.09%	-1.90%
2006	0.88%	6.44%	-2.94%	2.15%	1.59%	1.34%
2007	3.74%	4.66%	0.20%	4.00%	4.13%	4.43%
2008	8.64%	8.94%	5.60%	5.89%	5.15%	4.87%
2009	11.96%	9.40%	29.62%	3.62%	18.46%	9.57%
2010	1.81%	1.43%	6.60%	1.98%	3.73%	1.58%
2011	3.81%	1.74%	5.25%	4.04%	3.35%	2.96%
2012	-1.57%	-1.22%	2.77%	1.67%	-0.93%	-0.63%
2013	4.58%	-2.48%	5.93%	4.52%	-0.42%	1.93%
2014	-0.77%	3.12%	3.05%	2.75%	0.31%	0.74%
# Of Up Years	17	18	16	19	17	18
Trailing 25 Yr Mean	1.64%	2.49%	1.89%	1.71%	2.30%	1.81%
Standard Deviation	4.86	3.91	3.62	2.81	4.03	3.05

Trailing 10 Yr Mean	2.64%	2.83%	4.24%	3.09%	2.11%	2.15%
Trailing 15 Yr Mean	1.87%	2.36%	3.39%	2.41%	2.61%	2.06%
Trailing 20 Yr Mean	2.17%	2.91%	2.62%	2.20%	3.15%	2.33%

Rank	25 Year	20 Year	15 Year	10 Year
1	Energy	Energy	Energy/Real Estate	Real Estate
2	Nat Resources	Industrials		Energy
3	Industrials	Nat Resources	Industrials	Utilities
4	Real Estate	Real Estate	Utilities	Nat Resources
5	S&P 500 TR	S&P 500 TR	Nat Resources	Telecom
6	Utilities	Financials	Cons Staples	Cons Disc
7	Financials	Utilities	S&P 500 TR	S&P 500 TR
8	Telecom	Telecom	Cons Disc	Industrials
9	Cons Disc	Technology	Telecom	Cons Staples
10	Technology	Cons Disc	Financials	Financials
11	Cons Staples	Cons Staples	Health Care	Health Care
12	Health Care	Health Care	Technology	Technology

Jon R. Orcutt is the author of “Master the Markets…”; Founder and author of the Allocation for Life Investment Newsletter found at www.allocationforlife.com; and President of the AFL Advisory Group, LLC

March Historical Sector and S&P 500 Analysis

2015-02-28T09:14:00.001-05:00

March Historical Sector Analysis

*** Pre-Released to Allocation for Life Investment Newsletter Subscribers ***

March is a very interesting month for our domestic markets. Over the last fifteen years March has been the month when two major market declines came to an end. Market bottoms were reached in both March of 2003 and March of 2009.

After removing the high and low returns for statistical analysis, there are a few obvious trends in the sectors that I have observed over the last twenty-five years during the month of March. Overall, the markets have been consistently strong in March, with the S&P 500 achieving the following mean returns for each specific time period examined:

25 Yean Mean = 1.56%

20 Year Mean = 1.95%

15 Year Mean = 2.01%

10 Year Mean = 1.99%

While no one sector has been the leader for more than one of the time periods examined, consistent strength can be seen in the Consumer Discretionary sector (Sector leader the last twenty-five years and the second best performing sector for the trailing 20, 15 and 10 year time periods), and the Industrial Sector (A top three performing sector for every time period examined.)

Perpetual weakness versus the other sectors and the S&P 500 can be seen in the Health Care sector (the worst performing sector for three of the time periods examined and next to the last worst performing sector in the other), and the Technology Sector (A bottom three performer for every time period examined.)

March	Cons Disc	Health Care	Energy	Financials	Cons Staples	Technology
1990	4.36%	3.51%	4.14%	-0.36%	4.32%	4.59%
1991	5.70%	6.74%	12.51%	5.22%	4.89%	4.27%
1992	-1.29%	-5.25%	0.71%	-0.41%	-2.22%	-7.11%
1993	6.33%	1.97%	9.36%	4.62%	2.72%	2.48%
1994	-4.60%	-6.43%	-2.37%	-3.26%	-4.67%	-5.11%
1995	2.39%	3.78%	3.74%	0.51%	2.27%	4.60%
1996	3.33%	1.33%	2.71%	1.79%	-1.68%	-3.17%
1997	-2.52%	-7.01%	-8.37%	-5.89%	-2.61%	-6.69%
1998	5.94%	3.13%	4.54%	5.26%	3.67%	2.41%
1999	3.07%	0.78%	-4.66%	2.52%	-0.10%	10.63%
2000	9.86%	-8.58%	3.39%	13.59%	8.79%	-4.38%
2001	-5.67%	-11.07%	0.46%	-2.65%	-3.36%	-16.22%
2002	3.10%	2.18%	3.40%	5.81%	3.35%	9.43%
2003	2.54%	3.98%	2.71%	-0.71%	-0.08%	-0.53%
2004	0.07%	-0.58%	5.63%	-0.26%	0.63%	-2.23%
2005	0.02%	-1.89%	13.54%	-2.97%	-1.31%	-2.87%
2006	2.94%	-0.78%	-10.11%	1.39%	1.74%	2.45%
2007	0.95%	0.23%	-0.07%	-0.61%	2.47%	0.37%
2008	-3.79%	-3.72%	8.40%	-2.01%	2.22%	-0.61%
2009	11.85%	5.61%	-9.43%	12.59%	4.80%	11.45%
2010	8.61%	4.80%	2.47%	7.52%	5.25%	7.16%
2011	0.11%	3.15%	3.15%	-0.80%	0.91%	-0.76%
2012	4.68%	4.18%	-4.04%	4.46%	3.10%	4.44%
2013	4.19%	6.53%	2.99%	3.03%	4.42%	2.39%
2014	-1.50%	-4.96%	1.97%	1.94%	1.52%	-2.67%
# of up Years	19	15	18	14	17	13
Trailing 25 Yr Mean	2.37%	0.26%	1.88%	1.85%	1.61%	0.83%
Standard Deviation	3.65	4.28	5.05	3.75	2.51	4.73

Trailing 10 Yr Mean	2.50%	1.45%	0.68%	1.87%	2.65%	1.60%
Trailing 15 Yr Mean	2.44%	0.28%	1.62%	2.28%	2.23%	0.94%
Trailing 20 Yr Mean	2.44%	0.31%	1.06%	2.05%	1.70%	1.11%

March	Telecom	Nat Resources	Real Estate	Utilities	Industrials	S&P 500
1990	2.28%	0.49%	0.33%	0.11%	5.08%	2.65%
1991	3.64%	-1.61%	4.38%	1.50%	1.59%	2.42%
1992	-2.95%	-3.28%	-0.77%	-0.86%	-3.30%	-1.94%
1993	3.51%	5.65%	6.85%	1.72%	6.17%	2.11%
1994	-4.96%	-5.46%	-3.09%	-3.34%	-4.56%	-4.36%
1995	2.07%	5.64%	0.42%	-0.21%	5.10%	2.95%
1996	0.28%	5.44%	0.09%	-0.56%	2.64%	0.96%
1997	-5.52%	-2.52%	0.46%	-3.09%	-1.35%	-4.11%
1998	7.59%	3.56%	2.35%	7.07%	4.86%	5.12%
1999	7.83%	16.08%	-1.14%	0.02%	1.38%	4.00%
2000	-0.25%	11.92%	4.29%	5.07%	12.73%	9.78%
2001	-14.04%	-2.63%	-0.23%	-2.22%	-4.99%	-6.34%
2002	2.70%	9.21%	5.59%	6.45%	3.14%	3.76%
2003	-0.19%	-3.38%	2.18%	2.15%	0.77%	0.97%
2004	-2.11%	1.34%	5.76%	0.81%	-0.17%	-1.51%
2005	-3.56%	-1.20%	-1.62%	-0.11%	-1.31%	-1.77%
2006	3.82%	5.21%	4.86%	-1.48%	4.43%	1.24%
2007	1.44%	4.79%	-1.57%	4.29%	-0.10%	1.12%
2008	-3.57%	-2.49%	3.84%	-0.62%	0.51%	-0.43%
2009	8.43%	6.69%	4.50%	2.71%	8.04%	8.76%
2010	7.05%	5.30%	9.41%	3.26%	9.04%	6.03%
2011	0.73%	1.48%	-1.27%	0.71%	1.83%	0.04%
2012	2.03%	-4.52%	4.70%	1.03%	1.15%	3.29%
2013	3.12%	0.99%	2.75%	5.03%	3.55%	3.75%
2014	0.42%	0.60%	0.68%	2.64%	0.04%	0.84%
# of up Years	16	16	18	16	18	18
Trailing 25 Yr Mean	1.10%	2.03%	2.06%	1.23%	2.11%	1.56%
Standard Deviation	3.66	4.34	2.63	2.39	3.31	3.06

Trailing 10 Yr Mean	1.88%	1.84%	2.31%	1.74%	2.43%	1.99%
Trailing 15 Yr Mean	0.89%	1.99%	2.78%	1.96%	2.38%	2.01%
Trailing 20 Yr Mean	1.33%	2.78%	2.13%	1.61%	2.42%	1.95%

March Historical Sector Rankings

Rank	25 Year	20 Year	15 Year	10 Year
1	Cons Disc	Nat Resources	Real Estate	Cons Staples
2	Industrials	Cons Disc	Cons Disc	Cons Disc
3	Real Estate	Industrials	Industrials	Industrials
4	Nat Resources	Real Estate	Financials	Real Estate
5	Energy	Financials	Cons Staples	S&P 500 TR
6	Financials	S&P 500 TR	S&P 500 TR	Telecom
7	Cons Staples	Cons Staples	Nat Resources	Financials
8	S&P 500 TR	Utilities	Utilities	Nat Resources
9	Utilities	Telecom	Energy	Utilities
10	Telecom	Technology	Technology	Technology
11	Technology	Energy	Telecom	Health Care
12	Health Care	Health Care	Health Care	Energy

Based on my research I will be weighting the Select Sector Folio as follows for this coming March:

25% Consumer Discretionary

25% Nat Resources

25% Real Estate

25% Consumer Staples

The following represent the returns of the Select Sector Folio which is weighted each month based on my research:

YTD	1MOS	3MOS	1YR	3YR	INCEPTION
5.12%	4.66%	5.62%	26.10%		32.68%

As of the close on 2/27/2015 / Inception Date 1/2/2014

Data researched and provided by Jon R. Orcutt. Mr. Orcutt is President and Senior Portfolio Manager at the AFL Advisory Group, and author of the Allocation for Life Investment Newsletter found at www.allocationforlife.com

February Historical Sector Analysis: Relief for Oil Stocks?

2015-02-01T15:48:00.003-05:00

History shows that oil stocks could be entering a perfect month to make an attempt to stop the bleeding. That is because my twenty-five year historical sector analysis clearly shows February has been very kind to the energy and natural resource sectors.

After removing the high and low returns for statistical analysis the research shows that energy stocks have been the leading asset class performer for the trailing 25, 20 and 10 months of February. Don’t worry too much about energy stocks not leading the way over the last fifteen February’s because natural resources did and much of that sector includes the oil names.

Based on my research I would weight my sector strategy for the month of February as follows:

75% Energy Stocks

25% Natural Resources

My research for the month of January led to a 75% weighting in technology stocks and a 25% weighting in health care stocks. The average technology fund lost 2.62% of its value in January and the average health care fund made 3.01%. The combined weighted performance was a loss of 1.21% in January versus a 3% loss for the S&P 500 Index.

So my sector research is off to a good start in 2015 after posting gains of 21.9% in 2014 versus a 13.69% gain for the S&P 500.

Here is the data for the month of February:

February	Cons Disc	Health Care	Energy	Financials	Cons Staples	Technology
1990	1.35%	0.52%	4.14%	2.61%	1.43%	4.42%
1991	8.58%	9.67%	12.51%	9.90%	7.53%	6.38%
1992	3.82%	-3.01%	0.71%	4.38%	-0.56%	1.98%
1993	-2.30%	-11.72%	9.36%	2.51%	-0.26%	-3.44%
1994	0.69%	-2.86%	-2.37%	-2.71%	-0.60%	1.13%
1995	3.20%	2.59%	3.74%	5.51%	2.01%	5.48%
1996	4.49%	2.08%	2.71%	2.14%	3.06%	4.45%
1997	1.04%	-0.12%	-8.37%	3.88%	3.08%	-7.55%
1998	7.79%	5.39%	4.54%	7.69%	5.77%	11.13%
1999	-1.02%	-4.39%	-4.66%	-0.63%	-0.35%	-8.97%
2000	-4.29%	20.57%	3.39%	-8.20%	-8.01%	27.17%
2001	-3.57%	-3.40%	0.46%	-3.40%	-0.09%	-26.06%
2002	0.60%	-2.97%	3.40%	-0.19%	3.35%	-13.70%
2003	-2.81%	-2.40%	2.71%	-2.69%	-3.50%	0.45%
2004	3.42%	1.66%	5.63%	2.66%	4.86%	-1.75%
2005	0.39%	-0.78%	13.54%	0.03%	0.58%	0.36%
2006	0.55%	1.48%	-10.11%	1.35%	0.91%	-1.35%
2007	-1.88%	-1.88%	-0.07%	-2.01%	-1.64%	-0.52%
2008	-4.47%	-2.38%	8.40%	-7.54%	0.18%	-2.69%
2009	-6.32%	-10.19%	-9.43%	-12.26%	-7.16%	-3.90%
2010	5.56%	1.25%	2.47%	2.01%	3.09%	4.13%
2011	4.68%	2.71%	5.45%	2.75%	3.22%	3.44%
2012	5.66%	1.83%	4.79%	5.09%	5.67%	6.56%
2013	0.64%	1.25%	0.03%	1.00%	1.96%	0.31%
2014	6.47%	6.67%	5.83%	3.46%	5.15%	5.65%
# of up Years	17	13	19	16	16	15
Trailing 25 Yr Mean	1.30%	0.12%	2.41%	0.86%	1.31%	0.52%
Standard Deviation	3.48	4.03	5.03	3.84	2.98	5.52

Trailing 10 Yr Mean	1.39%	0.44%	2.18%	0.13%	1.68%	1.17%
Trailing 15 Yr Mean	0.34%	0.23%	2.54%	-0.83%	0.84%	-0.23%
Trailing 20 Yr Mean	1.04%	0.48%	1.72%	0.29%	1.35%	0.08%

February	Telecom	Nat Resources	Real Estate	Utilities	Industrials	S&P 500
1990	-0.59%	1.13%	-0.10%	0.50%	3.56%	1.29%
1991	5.22%	8.86%	3.21%	4.04%	8.06%	7.15%
1992	1.93%	0.82%	-1.30%	-0.29%	4.63%	1.30%
1993	3.16%	5.76%	3.32%	4.56%	1.86%	1.36%
1994	-3.12%	-2.56%	4.59%	-3.99%	-0.19%	-2.71%
1995	2.37%	3.94%	1.32%	0.80%	6.49%	3.90%
1996	1.20%	1.78%	1.10%	-1.39%	6.20%	0.93%
1997	-2.09%	-2.50%	0.19%	0.23%	-0.56%	0.78%
1998	8.31%	2.86%	-1.01%	3.45%	7.92%	7.21%
1999	-4.84%	-3.27%	-1.39%	-3.00%	-1.74%	-3.11%
2000	12.11%	0.22%	-1.48%	-0.35%	-3.95%	-1.89%
2001	-21.01%	0.73%	-1.45%	-2.08%	-3.18%	-9.12%
2002	-8.58%	4.98%	1.90%	-2.27%	2.01%	-1.93%
2003	-2.55%	2.68%	1.59%	-3.30%	-3.77%	-1.50%
2004	2.39%	5.76%	2.20%	1.98%	0.52%	1.39%
2005	1.01%	11.66%	2.60%	2.52%	2.83%	2.10%
2006	1.11%	-8.58%	1.82%	0.49%	1.94%	0.27%
2007	-0.67%	1.10%	-1.40%	2.40%	-0.71%	-1.96%
2008	-5.71%	8.38%	-3.37%	-2.60%	-3.15%	-3.25%
2009	-3.66%	-7.76%	-19.65%	-10.54%	-15.59%	-10.65%
2010	2.83%	2.94%	5.43%	-0.06%	5.86%	3.10%
2011	3.54%	4.50%	4.36%	2.38%	2.05%	3.43%
2012	4.16%	3.39%	-0.74%	2.23%	2.97%	4.32%
2013	-0.85%	-2.49%	0.70%	1.49%	2.19%	1.36%
2014	1.84%	6.47%	4.83%	3.34%	4.56%	4.57%
# of up Years	14	19	15	14	16	16
Trailing 25 Yr Mean	0.28%	2.07%	0.93%	0.28%	1.67%	0.51%
Standard Deviation	3.79	3.91	2.21	2.30	3.36	3.36

Trailing 10 Yr Mean	0.64%	2.07%	1.10%	1.11%	1.59%	1.17%
Trailing 15 Yr Mean	-0.40%	2.38%	0.89%	0.22%	0.33%	-0.28%
Trailing 20 Yr Mean	-0.01%	1.87%	0.65%	0.16%	1.14%	0.19%

Rank	25 Year	20 Year	15 Year	10 Year
1	Energy	Nat Resources	Energy	Energy
2	Nat Resources	Energy	Nat Resources	Nat Resources
3	Industrials	Cons Staples	Real Estate	Cons Staples
4	Cons Staples	Industrials	Cons Staples	Industrials
5	Cons Disc	Cons Disc	Cons Disc	Cons Disc
6	Real Estate	Real Estate	Industrials	Technology
7	Financials	Health Care	Health Care	Real Estate
8	Technology	Financials	Utilities	S&P 500 TR
9	S&P 500 TR	S&P 500 TR	Technology	Health Care
10	Telecom	Utilities	S&P 500 TR	Telecom
11	Utilities	Technology	Telecom	Utilities
12	Health Care	Telecom	Financials	Financials

*** Red denotes a negative mean return ***

Thank you and good luck everyone.

Jon R. Orcutt

Founder and Author of the Allocation for Life Investment Newsletter

www.allocationforlife.com

Sept Hisotical S&P and Sector Analysis

2013-08-30T09:38:00.000-04:00

This month, as always, I am sharing the average sector and S&P 500 performance for the month of September over the last twenty-five years. Though I am sharing this data with you, I can honestly say I am not relying on any of the data calculated going into this September. Historical trends should be thrown out the window going into this September. The markets are facing a possible military strike against Syria, as well as the possible beginning of the Fed tapering program. If anyone claims that they know how the market will react to either of these possible events then I would suggest you ignore them.

After removing the high and low returns for statistical analysis for each of the time periods examined, some interesting data did emerge. What was very noticeable was how heavily affected the S&P 500 is by the performance of industrials. For example, for three of the four time periods examined the S&P 500 TR and the industrial sector were the two worst performers when compared to the other ten sectors in the study. Even more interesting is the trailing twenty five year analysis. Ten of the sectors were able to achieve a positive mean return, while the S&P 500 TR and the industrial sector ended with negative mean returns.

Again, I am placing zero emphasis on this historical data. Hopefully you will be able to find something useful. My takeaway is that September is not necessarily a historically bad month, but what it has shown is that in times when the market has something to worry about, the selloffs have been dramatic. Perhaps in a year where we have good gains on the table and a few issues to worry about it may be prudent to tread lightly this September.

Sept	Cons Disc	Health Care	Energy	Financials	Cons Staples	Technology
1988	6.95%	3.79%	-2.02%	3.39%	4.01%	3.33%
1989	0.55%	2.48%	-0.41%	1.51%	0.42%	1.61%
1990	-8.92%	-5.04%	-1.13%	-10.13%	-3.19%	-9.47%
1991	0.13%	1.63%	-3.65%	-0.47%	-1.76%	-2.04%
1992	2.23%	-2.49%	2.91%	2.57%	1.68%	2.63%
1993	4.26%	3.23%	-1.82%	2.76%	-0.32%	2.78%
1994	-0.96%	1.09%	1.15%	-3.90%	0.19%	2.12%
1995	1.52%	5.87%	-0.23%	3.36%	7.85%	3.14%
1996	4.84%	6.47%	4.66%	5.24%	3.39%	10.31%
1997	7.04%	9.20%	7.61%	8.37%	6.09%	5.10%
1998	1.23%	13.09%	19.45%	3.20%	3.27%	12.43%
1999	-0.20%	-5.60%	-3.90%	-3.55%	-5.79%	3.38%
2000	-1.14%	4.64%	0.66%	3.95%	0.76%	-9.59%
2001	-13.23%	-5.53%	-10.51%	-6.37%	-4.50%	-21.83%
2002	-6.96%	-4.29%	-7.46%	-10.81%	-7.79%	-14.84%
2003	-3.01%	0.45%	-1.97%	0.64%	0.67%	-2.93%
2004	3.36%	2.25%	10.22%	0.93%	-2.13%	4.93%
2005	-2.22%	0.59%	6.10%	0.61%	0.23%	2.15%
2006	5.15%	0.30%	-5.75%	3.45%	0.70%	3.06%
2007	0.68%	3.88%	8.97%	2.71%	4.90%	5.01%
2008	-9.73%	-6.70%	-20.95%	-5.10%	-3.31%	-14.92%
2009	5.37%	2.56%	9.65%	2.99%	3.83%	6.21%
2010	12.51%	9.86%	10.64%	7.99%	8.21%	13.03%
2011	-7.15%	-5.38%	-14.75%	-11.23%	-6.20%	-6.78%
2012	2.66%	4.52%	2.48%	3.70%	1.40%	1.08%
# Of Up Years	15	18	12	17	16	17
Mean	0.25%	1.50%	0.50%	0.38%	0.53%	0.38%
Standard Deviation	4.72	4.43	6.52	4.71	3.59	6.99

Trailing 10yr Mean	0.61%	1.15%	1.87%	1.24%	0.79%	1.59%
Trailing 15 yr Mean	-0.92%	0.63%	0.34%	-0.28%	-0.47%	-0.83%
Trailing 20 Yr Mean	0.26%	1.90%	0.88%	0.66%	0.61%	0.70%

Sept	Telecom	Nat Resources	Real Estate	Utilities	Industrials	S&P 500 TR
1988	5.88%	-1.37%	2.00%	2.87%	4.51%	4.26%
1989	2.17%	-0.89%	-0.26%	0.84%	-2.28%	-0.41%
1990	-5.13%	-2.77%	-5.43%	-0.11%	-10.00%	-4.87%
1991	2.34%	-1.78%	2.00%	2.87%	-1.31%	-1.67%
1992	1.22%	0.85%	2.35%	0.52%	2.70%	1.18%
1993	1.37%	-2.78%	4.52%	-0.12%	-0.08%	-0.77%
1994	-0.74%	0.94%	-1.68%	-2.16%	-4.73%	-2.45%
1995	3.59%	-0.03%	2.16%	4.51%	0.21%	4.22%
1996	3.13%	2.87%	2.61%	0.91%	2.77%	5.63%
1997	7.64%	6.43%	9.52%	5.87%	4.46%	5.48%
1998	8.91%	16.28%	5.17%	7.33%	1.15%	6.41%
1999	3.24%	-1.20%	-3.71%	-0.26%	-4.99%	-2.74%
2000	-9.26%	-0.79%	3.48%	2.83%	-4.09%	-5.28%
2001	-10.07%	-10.47%	-4.14%	-7.15%	-15.04%	-8.08%
2002	-12.28%	-6.05%	-3.69%	-9.49%	-8.41%	-10.87%
2003	-0.92%	-1.16%	3.28%	2.24%	-3.25%	-1.06%
2004	3.69%	9.55%	0.22%	2.22%	4.11%	1.08%
2005	2.32%	5.58%	0.44%	3.42%	1.76%	0.81%
2006	3.66%	-5.92%	1.85%	-0.59%	2.81%	2.58%
2007	5.39%	9.52%	4.55%	4.64%	3.28%	3.74%
2008	-17.49%	-18.96%	-2.01%	-13.25%	-13.71%	-8.91%
2009	7.17%	6.05%	6.66%	3.14%	5.28%	3.73%
2010	10.76%	10.19%	4.46%	4.70%	12.44%	8.92%
2011	-7.72%	-17.27%	-10.43%	-3.61%	-10.89%	-7.03%
2012	3.78%	4.30%	-1.36%	2.15%	1.15%	2.58%
# Of Up Years	17	11	16	16	13	13
Mean	0.84%	0.17%	1.02%	0.88%	-1.28%	-0.07%
Standard Deviation	5.73	6.35	3.25	3.63	5.30	4.41

Trailing 10yr Mean	2.17%	1.33%	1.43%	1.70%	0.53%	0.80%
Trailing 15 yr Mean	-0.16%	0.18%	0.66%	0.33%	-1.98%	-0.94%
Trailing 20 Yr Mean	0.72%	0.54%	1.27%	0.74%	-1.29%	0.00%

	25 Year	20 Year	15 Year	10 Year
1	Health Care	Health Care	Real Estate	Telecom
2	Real Estate	Real Estate	Health Care	Energy
3	Utilities	Energy	Energy	Utilities
4	Telecom	Utilities	Utilities	Technology
5	Cons Staples	Telecom	Natural Resources	Real Estate
6	Energy	Technology	Telecom	Natural Resources
7	Technology	Financials	Financials	Financials
8	Financials	Cons Staples	Cons Staples	Health Care
9	Consum Discret	Natural Resources	Technology	S&P 500 TR
10	Natural Resources	Cons Disc	Cons Disc	Cons Staples
11	S&P 500 TR	S&P 500 TR	S&P 500 TR	Cons Disc
12	Industrials	Industrials	Industrials	Industrials

Jon R. Orcutt is the founder of Allocation For Life, Author of The Allocation For Life Investment Newsletter, Author of "Master The Markets With Mutual Funds: A Common Sense Guide To Investing Success" and manager/creator of the AFL Models available to Allocation For Life subscribers at Folio Investing.

www.allocationforlife.com

July '13 S&P 500, Asset Class & Sector Performance

2013-08-01T09:48:00.002-04:00

As of the close on 07-31-13	July	YTD
S&P 500 Index Total Return	5.09%	19.62%

Asset Class Category Average Performance
Intermediate-Term Bond	0.30%	-2.01%
Domestic Large Cap Value	5.01%	20.68%
Domestic Mid Cap Value	5.62%	22.38%
Domestic Small Cap Value	6.43%	22.76%
Foreign Large Cap Value	5.34%	8.65%
Foreign Small/Mid Cap Value	5.05%	10.57%
Domestic Large Cap Growth	5.75%	17.38%
Domestic Mid Cap Growth	6.29%	20.19%
Domestic Small Cap Growth	6.73%	23.79%
Foreign Large Cap Growth	4.72%	6.28%
Diversified Emerging Markets	1.44%	-6.28%
Gold & Precious Metals Equities	11.74%	-39.82%
Real Estate	0.81%	5.55%
Broad Basket Commodities	2.17%	-9.09%

Sector Category Average Performance
Technology	6.36%	16.79%
Consumer Discretionary	4.91%	23.47%
Financials	5.77%	22.41%
Telecommunications	3.47%	14.13%
Industrials	6.74%	22.53%
Utilities	4.31%	15.22%
Natural Resources	4.60%	-0.49%
Real Estate	0.81%	5.55%
Health Care	9.05%	32.42%
Consumer Staples	4.88%	19.84%
Energy	3.33%	14.96%

Regions
Europe Stock	6.72%	9.93%
China Region	3.70%	-2.92%
Japan Stock	1.60%	22.18%
Latin America	-0.36%	-14.44%

www.allocationforlife.com

August Historical S&P 500 and Sector Analysis

2013-07-29T14:46:00.000-04:00

If, in the past, you have ever felt like Wall Street feels like a ghost town in the middle of August, then you may find comfort in the fact that the numbers support that feeling. The fact is, August has been a challenging month for the market over the last twenty-five years. After removing the high and low returns for statistical analysis I found that the S&P 500 TR has experienced a negative mean return of -.39% over the last twenty-five months of August. The trend is choppy at best as the S&P 500 TR returned to a positive return of .07% for the trailing twenty months of August, before slipping back into negative territory with a mean return of -.26% for the trailing fifteen year period. Rounding out my analysis is another positive mean return for the S&P 500 TR over the last ten years.

Based on the broad-based market weakness in the month of August over the last twenty-five years it should not be surprising that the best performing and most consistent performing sectors are defensive in nature. Only three sectors have been able to achieve a positive mean return for every time period that I examined, and finished as top half performers versus the others sectors and the S&P 500 TR. Those three sectors were the health care, consumer staples and real estate sectors. Of the three, the clearest strength was seen in real estate, as it finished as a top three performer for every time period researched.

So where did the majority of the weakness come from during the last twenty-five months of August? The numbers indicate that the telecom and industrial sectors have had extreme trouble in August. In fact, they finished as the bottom two performing sectors for three of the four time periods. Industrials were unable to achieve a positive mean return for any of the researched periods of time. Duration has not helped with industrials suffering a mean return of -1.11% for the month of August over the last twenty-five years.

Technology stock investors may consider increasing their exposure. Though the sector was not as consistent (higher volatility and of course a higher standard deviation) as the previously mentioned winners, it has showed signs of strength in August especially over the last twenty years where it was the leading sector.

August	Cons Disc	Health Care	Energy	Financials	Cons Staples	Technology
1988	-2.90%	-2.74%	-1.13%	-0.46%	-0.06%	-6.20%
1989	3.09%	1.76%	3.09%	4.39%	-1.54%	2.61%
1990	-11.80%	-6.81%	-1.25%	-9.35%	-7.29%	-12.83%
1991	4.02%	3.21%	2.84%	5.40%	3.98%	4.90%
1992	-1.38%	-2.58%	1.56%	-3.24%	-0.44%	-2.80%
1993	6.98%	2.19%	6.13%	3.94%	4.78%	7.15%
1994	4.96%	9.85%	-2.42%	2.68%	6.36%	9.90%
1995	0.63%	2.36%	2.36%	4.67%	-0.17%	1.14%
1996	3.94%	5.89%	5.99%	4.88%	-3.18%	5.44%
1997	-2.61%	-2.61%	4.19%	-3.21%	-3.70%	-0.11%
1998	-14.83%	-16.36%	-22.25%	-20.56%	-12.18%	-19.33%
1999	-5.14%	2.70%	3.64%	-4.89%	-3.24%	5.24%
2000	0.34%	10.63%	13.76%	8.88%	1.54%	15.69%
2001	-5.73%	-1.59%	-6.85%	-3.98%	3.15%	-12.90%
2002	1.10%	-1.42%	2.48%	1.83%	1.26%	-3.11%
2003	4.27%	-1.53%	7.71%	0.06%	1.84%	7.54%
2004	-1.29%	0.99%	-1.94%	2.75%	0.66%	-4.37%
2005	-4.25%	0.99%	7.45%	-1.72%	-1.54%	-0.76%
2006	2.79%	2.68%	-4.32%	1.17%	3.52%	6.26%
2007	1.27%	2.97%	-1.40%	0.65%	2.63%	2.26%
2008	6.36%	0.45%	-2.37%	0.25%	1.79%	1.74%
2009	3.95%	2.08%	0.43%	8.13%	1.68%	2.06%
2010	-4.38%	-2.20%	-5.24%	-7.09%	-2.13%	-4.54%
2011	-6.52%	-6.11%	-9.45%	-9.22%	-2.11%	-7.67%
2012	4.09%	1.84%	2.43%	3.09%	0.85%	4.45%
# Of Up Years	14	15	14	15	13	14
Mean	-0.23%	0.54%	0.61%	0.03%	0.10%	0.23%
Standard Deviation	4.49	3.60	4.56	4.62	2.83	6.08

Trailing 10yr Mean	0.81%	0.66%	-0.62%	-0.11%	0.73%	0.89%
Trailing 15 yr Mean	-0.73%	0.14%	-0.57%	-0.69%	0.49%	-0.29%
Trailing 20 Yr Mean	0.21%	1.09%	0.49%	0.22%	0.42%	1.10%

August	Telecom	Nat Resources	Real Estate	Utilities	Industrials	S&P 500 TR
1988	-2.86%	-3.25%	-0.33%	-0.31%	-5.45%	-3.39%
1989	0.65%	4.53%	-0.11%	-0.32%	4.62%	1.95%
1990	-8.53%	-3.34%	-5.62%	-5.54%	-13.94%	-9.04%
1991	3.05%	1.22%	0.09%	2.72%	0.27%	2.37%
1992	-1.37%	-0.33%	0.87%	-0.17%	-3.58%	-2.05%
1993	6.64%	4.75%	2.57%	3.44%	3.60%	3.79%
1994	4.19%	1.01%	0.90%	0.91%	4.60%	4.10%
1995	2.11%	0.69%	1.43%	1.22%	-1.47%	0.25%
1996	2.98%	5.59%	4.47%	1.81%	1.95%	2.11%
1997	-2.89%	2.03%	-0.52%	-2.93%	-1.12%	-5.60%
1998	-17.17%	-19.09%	-10.07%	-7.16%	-16.67%	-14.46%
1999	-4.04%	2.33%	-1.55%	-2.98%	-3.48%	-0.49%
2000	5.60%	11.98%	-2.82%	6.87%	3.95%	6.21%
2001	-12.09%	-3.65%	2.99%	-3.93%	-3.89%	-6.26%
2002	1.99%	3.14%	0.12%	2.23%	-1.00%	0.66%
2003	3.60%	6.99%	0.84%	1.17%	4.37%	1.95%
2004	-1.46%	-1.27%	6.94%	2.61%	-0.35%	0.40%
2005	-0.50%	7.46%	-3.43%	1.55%	-1.80%	-0.91%
2006	3.42%	-3.36%	3.49%	2.29%	-0.16%	2.38%
2007	-0.25%	-1.86%	4.58%	1.24%	-0.43%	1.50%
2008	0.57%	-3.90%	2.00%	-1.73%	1.98%	1.45%
2009	-0.47%	0.35%	12.97%	1.47%	4.79%	3.61%
2010	-2.33%	-3.62%	-1.16%	-0.13%	-7.32%	-4.51%
2011	-4.53%	-8.72%	-5.95%	-1.48%	-9.04%	-5.43%
2012	2.39%	3.03%	0.14%	-1.51%	2.26%	2.25%
# Of Up Years	12	14	15	13	10	15
Mean	-0.47%	0.43%	0.43%	0.07%	-1.11%	-0.39%
Standard Deviation	4.09	3.97	3.03	2.29	4.58	3.57

Trailing 10yr Mean	0.17%	-0.46%	1.68%	0.58%	-0.18%	0.56%
Trailing 15 yr Mean	-1.05%	-0.24%	0.48%	-0.06%	-1.15%	-0.26%
Trailing 20 Yr Mean	-0.10%	0.61%	0.84%	0.29%	-0.41%	0.07%

	25 Year	20 Year	15 Year	10 Year
1	Energy	Technology	Cons Staples	Real Estate
2	Health Care	Health Care	Real Estate	Technology
3	Real Estate	Real Estate	Health Care	Cons Disc
4	Nat Resources	Nat Resources	Utilities	Cons Staples
5	Technology	Energy	Nat Resources	Health Care
6	Cons Staples	Cons Staples	S&P 500 TR	Utilities
7	Utilities	Utilities	Technology	S&P 500 TR
8	Financials	Financials	Energy	Telecom
9	Cons Disc	Cons Disc	Financials	Financials
10	S&P 500 TR	S&P 500 TR	Cons Disc	Industrials
11	Telecom	Telecom	Telecom	Nat Resources
12	Industrials	Industrials	Industrials	Energy