DayTrade-Profit

Gold Price Alert: Is XAU/USD Parabolic Spike Signaling a Reversal?

2025-04-02T00:32:00.000-07:00

Technical Review: Gold (XAU/USD)

Overview and Context

Gold (XAU/USD) has seen aggressive bullish momentum recently, marked by a sharp, nearly parabolic spike. Current price action, combined with investor sentiment, strongly indicates short-term exhaustion, posing considerable reversal risks.

Fundamental Perspective

The recent bullish surge was primarily driven by geopolitical uncertainty and speculative buying rather than robust fundamental demand. Today's tariff announcement by former President Trump could exemplify the classic market adage:

"Buy on hearsay, sell on knowledge."

This suggests traders have already priced in tariff expectations, and today’s confirmation is likely to trigger profit-taking, driving prices lower in the short term.

XAU/USD analysis

Technical Analysis

Price Action:

Parabolic Movement:
The gold price rise has formed a steep, unsustainable trajectory, historically indicative of speculative bubbles, often followed by rapid corrections.
Resistance and Exhaustion Signs:
Current price levels have encountered strong psychological resistance. Notable exhaustion candles (long upper wicks) reflect weakening momentum and potential trend reversal.

Insights from Technical Indicators (Provided Chart):

Steep Angle of Price Rise:
The extremely steep upward angle indicates unsustainable bullish momentum and signals impending mean reversion.
Moving Averages Divergence:
Gold prices are significantly above longer-term moving averages (blue and purple lines), emphasizing overextension and a strong likelihood of a corrective pullback.
Momentum Indicators:
Indicators suggest severely overbought conditions, confirming the thesis that buying pressure has reached exhaustion levels.
Volume and Volatility:
Heightened volatility underscores speculative buying rather than stable accumulation, typically preceding a market top.

XAU/USD technical analysis

Risk Assessment

Short-Term Risk:
High probability of immediate downside correction driven by technical exhaustion and today's tariff news catalyst.
Medium-Term Risk:
Continued volatility due to economic policy developments remains likely. Investors should closely monitor central bank responses and market sentiment shifts.

Conclusion and Recommendations

The combination of parabolic price action, technical indicators showing overextension, and today's tariff news announcement all point toward imminent short-term exhaustion.

Recommended Actions:

Short-term traders should consider partial profit-taking and tightening stop-losses.
Medium- to long-term investors should adopt a cautious approach, remaining patient until clearer, sustainable price movements emerge.

This review does not include any document and/or file attached to it as advice or recommendation to buy/sell securities and/or other advice

Crude Oil Price Outlook: Navigating Key Levels in a Dynamic Market

2025-02-12T23:02:00.000-08:00

The crude oil market continues to attract attention from traders and investors alike, as global uncertainties and evolving supply-demand dynamics drive price movements. In our latest analysis, we’ve identified potential target prices at $67.90 and a more conservative estimate around $64.50, noting that resistance remains firmly positioned near $73.40.

Understanding the Targets

$67.90 Target:

This price point represents a critical pivot area where bullish momentum might find support. If the market shows signs of strength—through improved fundamentals or a reduction in geopolitical tensions—prices could rally towards this level. Technical indicators, such as moving averages and momentum oscillators, are aligning to suggest that a move towards $67.90 is plausible under supportive conditions.

$64.50 Target:

On the flip side, a target of $64.50 offers a more cautious outlook. This level may act as a fallback if bearish pressures intensify, potentially due to oversupply concerns or economic slowdowns in key consuming regions. Traders might view this target as a potential support zone, where market participants could look for buying opportunities.

The Resistance Factor at $73.40

The resistance zone at $73.40 has been a recurring challenge for crude oil prices. Historically, this level has proven to be a robust barrier, with selling pressure intensifying as prices approach it. For a sustained upward trend, breaking through this resistance is essential. Should prices manage to clear $73.40 convincingly, it could pave the way for further gains, but until then, market participants should remain cautious.

This review does not include any document and/or file attached to it as advice or recommendation to buy/sell securities and/or other advice

SP500 Market Forecast: A Path to 5500-5600 Before a Potential Bubble

2024-12-30T09:27:00.000-08:00

SP500 Market Forecast: A Path to 5500-5600 Before a Potential Bubble-Like Surge

The SP500 index appears to be entering a critical phase. Current projections indicate a potential decline to the 5500-5600 range, reflecting a natural market correction or consolidation. However, this move should not be viewed purely as a bearish signal. Instead, it may act as a setup for a significant upward wave, akin to the explosive rally seen during the mid-1990s (1995-1996).

Support Levels

The 5500-5600 range aligns with key technical support, where historical price patterns and Fibonacci retracements suggest potential buying interest.
However, if this level does not hold, it creates room for potential further declines. In such a scenario, the downward move could extend into the 4200-4800 points area.

Potential for a Bubble-Like Surge

A correction to the 5500-5600 zone could ignite a powerful upward wave driven by:

Renewed investor confidence
Favorable economic conditions
Technological advancements

This dynamic could resemble the rally of 1995-1996, characterized by speculative exuberance and rapid market growth.

Historical Parallels and Risks

It’s crucial to recognize that the current market trajectory bears a striking resemblance to the late 1990s—a period that ultimately led to one of the most well-known market crashes in modern history.

While this doesn’t mean a crash is imminent, it underscores the importance of preparation and understanding the associated risks.

similar periods. Displaying examples with exact dates:

DatetimeIndex(['1995-12-26', '1995-12-27', '1995-12-28', '1996-01-18',

'1996-01-19', '1996-01-22', '1996-01-23', '1996-01-24',

'1996-01-25', '1996-01-29', '1996-01-30', '1996-01-31',

'1996-02-01', '1996-08-15', '1996-08-16', '1996-08-19',

'2001-04-11', '2001-05-01', '2001-07-26', '2001-07-27',

'2001-07-30', '2001-07-31', '2001-08-01', '2001-08-02'

SP500 Market Forecast

Investor Guidance

Investors should consider the following risk management strategies:

Portfolio Diversification: Spread investments across multiple asset classes.
Stop-Loss Orders: Limit potential losses by setting predetermined exit levels.
Monitor Indicators: Keep a close eye on macroeconomic indicators, market sentiment, and historical parallels to navigate potential volatility effectively.

Conclusion

While the SP500 may experience a near-term decline to the 5500-5600 area, this correction should be viewed as a healthy retracement rather than a cause for alarm. Historical precedent and current market dynamics suggest the potential for a subsequent, bubble-like surge, offering substantial opportunities for savvy investors.

Cumulative growth from 1995-12-26 to 2001-08-02: 98.72% - Predicted price based on similar growth to 12072.59 points - sounds crazy

Market Forecast

Maintaining a disciplined approach and focusing on long-term trends will be critical in navigating this complex but promising market phase.

Stay tuned for further updates on this evolving market scenario.

This review does not include any document and/or file attached to it as advice or recommendation to buy/sell securities and/or other advice

Navigating the S&P 500: Surviving Market Chaos Amid Global Turmoil

2024-05-28T01:12:00.000-07:00

The S&P 500 in an Apocalyptic Scenario: Interpreting Harmonic Patterns Amid Global Turmoil

In today's world, the S&P 500 is being run to a new high despite unprecedented geopolitical tensions, military conflicts, and economic uncertainty. From Middle East turmoil and U.S. election drama to the Russia-Ukraine war and China-Taiwan tensions,

Even in such as un understanding times, harmonic patterns like the Bullish Cypher and Bullish Shark can provide valuable insights into potential market movements. Let’s break down these patterns and see what they mean for the S&P 500.

Scenario 1: The Bullish Cypher Pattern

Starting Point: ~2100 Points

Peak: ~5900 Points

Target: ~2800 Points

The Bullish Cypher is a sophisticated pattern that often signals a big market reversal. Imagine the S&P 500 starts at about 2100 points. Despite the global chaos, it skyrockets to a peak of around 5900 points. This surge could be fueled by short-term resolutions in conflicts, emergency economic measures, or speculative buying.

don’t get too comfortable with this high. The Cypher pattern suggests a sharp fall back to around 2800 points. This drop reflects a sobering return to reality as the fleeting optimism wears off and the true impact of ongoing crises sets in. Investors should be ready for substantial ups and downs in the market.

S&P 500 harmonic pattern trading

Scenario 2: The Bullish Shark Pattern

Starting Point: ~2100 Points

Peak: ~6400 Points

Targets: ~2800 Points or ~1800 Points

The Bullish Shark pattern is another crucial indicator of potential reversals. Starting again at around 2100 points, this pattern shows the S&P 500 climbing to a peak of roughly 6400 points.

However, this rise is also likely unsustainable. The Shark pattern forecasts a steep drop, primarily to around 2800 points. If conditions worsen, the market could plunge further to approximately 1800 points. This reflects deeper market troubles exacerbated by prolonged geopolitical and economic instability.

S&P 500 trading Pattern

Navigating Through the Chaos

Given today’s volatile global context, the S&P 500’s movements through these harmonic patterns highlight the extreme unpredictability of the market. Here’s how to make sense of it:

S&P 500 long chart

Key Takeaways for Investors

Monitor Key Events: Keep an eye on geopolitical events, military conflicts, and economic policies. These external factors can create significant market disruptions and opportunities.

In conclusion, while harmonic patterns like the Bullish Cypher and Bullish Shark offer valuable insights, they are Technical forecasting and none of us have a crystal ball

today’s world requires heightened caution and adaptability. The potential for dramatic peaks and deep drops in the S&P 500 underscores the need to be prepared for both short-term opportunities and long-term challenges. Stay informed, stay flexible, and navigate the market chaos with a clear strategy that considers the broader global context.

This review does not include any document and/or file attached to it as advice or recommendation to buy/sell securities and/or other advice

Has the Market Correction Started or its only pause

2024-04-01T11:36:00.000-07:00

Markets analysis

long time I didn't update about the markets ,It's time to check what's going on here

in 2021 i post S&P 500 prediction for the next years

Has the Market Correction Started?
The question of whether a market correction has started is always a topic of interest among investors. However, it's not always easy to answer. Market corrections are typically identified in hindsight, and their onset can be difficult to pinpoint in real-time.

a significant drop in a single day does not necessarily indicate correction. Instead, it's crucial to look at trends over a more extended period.

Market correction is an inevitable part of the financial market cycle. It is a phase where the stock market or a particular asset class experiences a significant decline in value, typically by 10% or more from its recent peak. This phenomenon is often viewed negatively, but it is essential to understand that market corrections are a natural part of the market's ebb and flow.

Market corrections can be triggered by various factors. One of the most common causes is overvaluation. When asset prices rise too quickly and reach unsustainable levels, a correction may occur as investors start to sell off their holdings to realize profits.

Economic indicators can also trigger a market correction. For instance, a sudden increase in inflation, a decrease in consumer confidence, or a slowdown in GDP growth can cause investors to reevaluate their positions, leading to a sell-off.
Geopolitical events, such as wars, elections, or changes in government policy, can also cause market corrections. These events can create uncertainty, leading investors to sell their assets until the situation becomes clearer.

since 2008 - this not has been seen in the market :cot position map show Asset Manager/Institutional short position shows only 10%
(Asset Manager/Institutional. These are institutional investors, including pension funds,
endowments, insurance companies, mutual funds and those portfolio/investment managers
whose clients are predominantly institutional.)

Commitment of Traders

Now lest focus on the S&P 500 :my assumption that correction time arrive

If we refine the matter ,The assumption telling me that today's highs in the S&P 500 future price which are currently stay at 5332 points will not break through on a daily closing basis in the next 3-4 trading days

It is possible that there will also be entry at higher price levels again, then there is an option of returning to area 5270 for Joining Short from the higher levels

Technical analysis for the S&P 500:

Short support areas: 5170+_

Short resistance areas: 5326 +_

Long support areas: 4416+_

Long resistance areas: last high for now

An open gap at 4650-4690 points

need to watch 5130- 5160 area last lows - (Correction approved will take place when we will be closed daily below+_)

Below those level as mentioned above - targets point stay at 4860-4930 -5030

S&P 500

S&P 500 chart

This review does not including any document and / or file attached to it as an advice or recommendation to buy / sell securities and / or other advice

A crossroads of decisions in the market is ahead of us

2023-09-27T06:12:00.005-07:00

Overview of markets and risk assets

The last post was: Are we seeing the high for the short-medium period?

Also in May, I wrote: Does the economic situation of the stock market combined with the bond markets reflect the real problem

The question is whether what we saw from the bottom in 2020 is just the trailer for the future to come in the markets:

It's hard to know exactly what will happen, no one can predict

What matters right now is the expectation of the interest rate for the future

The interest rate is currently the catalyst for the main moves

The bright spot that can be seen positively about the future embodied in the markets, is in the pricing of the currencies and gold that will probably affect the stock markets

Exchange rates reflect the state of the markets and broader economic conditions in several ways. Exchange rates are the relative values of one currency compared to another, and they are determined by various factors, including supply and demand dynamics in the foreign exchange market. Here's how exchange rates can reflect the state of the markets:

Interest Rates: Central banks' decisions regarding interest rates can significantly impact exchange rates. When a central bank raises interest rates, it can attract foreign capital seeking higher returns, leading to an appreciation of the currency. Conversely, lower interest rates can result in currency depreciation.

Market Sentiment: Market sentiment and risk appetite also play a role. In times of uncertainty or heightened risk aversion, investors often flock to safe-haven currencies like the U.S. dollar, Swiss franc, or Japanese yen, leading to their appreciation.

Central Bank Interventions: Central banks may intervene in currency markets to stabilize or influence their currencies. For example, a central bank might sell its own currency to prevent excessive appreciation or purchase its currency to prevent depreciation.

Relative Strength of Other Currencies: Exchange rates are always comparable. The value of one currency is expressed in terms of another. Therefore, changes in the strength or weakness of other major currencies can influence exchange rates.

spoiler: next week predict something interesting in the markets

NASDAQ

There is a paradox - if we look at the exchange rates of the currencies against the dollar

Today, while interest rates are at 5% in the US, it can be seen that the exchange rates of the yen and the euro do not directly reflect the strengthening of the dollar

It should be that at the same time, there is an increase in interest rates on the USD the others went down

Yen dollar stood at rate zones of +151, while the interest rate in the USA stood at 3.00%

The Euro-Dollar rate stood at 0.95 +- while the interest rate in the USA stood at 3.00%

Gold traded in the 1600 area while the interest rate in the USA was at 3.00%

It is true that some will say that then the outlook looked more gloomy and therefore we saw this weakness, but still in a realistic and future view it is not directly related to today's situation

Today the interest rate is at 5%, not only are they not trading below, but the price is at higher numbers against the dollar - which reflects that the future does not look so rosy for the dollar, or that the interest rate hikes will not continue, or that the numbers are lying

time will tell ......

Now let's go to the charts - first, let's check the NASDAQ

Technical analysis for the NASDAQ:

Correction approved will take place when we will be closed daily below 14630+_

short support areas: 14200,13400,12600

An open gap at 13700-13800

From above Resistance level areas stay at 14,800-14,930

14,600 area last lows - (Correction approved will take place when we will be closed daily below 14630+_)

Below those level as mentioned above - the target point stay at 14200-144400

main support zone at 13,900+-

stock market analysis

NASDAQ technical analysis

Technical analysis for the S&P 500:

Short support areas: 4200+_

An open gap at

From above Resistance level areas stay at 4320-4360

4320 area last lows - (Correction approved will take place when we will be closed daily below 4320+_)

Below those level as mentioned above - the target point stay at 4100-4200

main support zone at 4100

S&P 500 analysis

This review does not include any document and/or file attached to it as advice or recommendation to buy/sell securities and/or other advice

It’s not where it's when the correction will come

2023-06-20T05:02:00.007-07:00

Are we seeing the high for the short-medium period?

Identifying signs of a potential market top can be challenging, as market conditions can vary and indicators may differ across different market cycles. However, here are some general signs that investors and analysts often consider when assessing whether a market may be reaching a top:

Overvaluation: Elevated market valuations, such as high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios or price-to-sales (P/S) ratios, could indicate that stocks are priced beyond their fundamental value. This could suggest a potential market top.

Divergence: If there is a significant divergence between market indices and other indicators, such as declining trading volumes, weakening breadth (the number of stocks participating in the market rally), or declining market momentum, it could be a sign that the market is losing steam.

Investor Sentiment: Extreme bullish sentiment, as reflected in measures like high levels of optimism, excessive speculation, or a surge in retail investor participation, could indicate a potential market top. This is because markets often experience a period of euphoria before a correction.

Economic Indicators: Weakening economic indicators, such as slowing GDP growth, rising inflation, tightening monetary policy, or deteriorating corporate earnings, may suggest that the market could be approaching the top.

Technical Analysis: Technical indicators, such as trend reversals, bearish chart patterns, or negative divergences in oscillators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI), can provide signals of a potential market top.

Predicting the exact timing of a market correction is challenging, but there are several signs that investors and analysts often consider as potential indicators of an impending correction. These signs can include:

Overextended Bull Market: If the market has been in a prolonged period of upward momentum, with significant gains over an extended period, it could suggest that a correction may be on the horizon.

Elevated Valuations: High valuations, such as elevated price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios or price-to-sales (P/S) ratios, relative to historical averages or industry norms, could indicate that stocks are overvalued and susceptible to a correction.

Deteriorating Economic Indicators: Weakening economic indicators, such as slowing GDP growth, rising unemployment rates, declining consumer spending, or weakening corporate earnings, may signal an economic slowdown and increase the likelihood of a market correction.

A shift in Central Bank Policies: Changes in monetary policy, such as interest rate hikes or tightening liquidity measures, can impact market sentiment and potentially trigger a correction.

Market Sentiment and Speculative Behavior: Excessive optimism, increased speculation, and a general sense of euphoria in the market can be warning signs that a correction may be imminent, as these behaviors can lead to overvaluation and asset bubbles.

Volatility Spikes: A sudden increase in market volatility, as measured by indicators like the VIX (CBOE Volatility Index), can suggest growing uncertainty and the potential for a market correction.

Technical Analysis: Bearish chart patterns, such as lower highs and lower lows, breakdowns of key support levels, or negative divergences in technical indicators, can provide signals of an impending correction.

It's important to note that these signs are not foolproof indicators, and market timing is difficult. Corrections can be triggered by unexpected events or factors, and markets can sometimes remain irrational for longer than expected.

the last post was: Does the economic situation of the stock market combined with the bond markets reflects the real problem?

Now let's test the Nasdaq

I think that the max move can play till 15600+_ if this is the right pattern

Correction approved will take place when we will be closed daily below 14630+_

Short support areas: 14200,13400,12600

The big major support stays at 11600+-

An open gap on 13700-13800

NASDAQ ANALYSIS

There is a similar scenario that happened in 2004 -time will tell if this scenario will take place in 2023 - if yes so the targets are written above

NASDAQ

not yet be

It is important to note that approval for the short has not yet been received!

This review does not include any document and/or file attached to it as advice or recommendation to buy/sell securities and/or other advice

Do stock market expectations reflect the situation?

2023-05-30T06:05:00.000-07:00

Does the economic situation of the stock market combined with the bond markets reflect the real problem?

We have contradictions in many economic models that we now see in markets and economies, this is not a healthy situation sign - someone will have to reset and get back into balance

Market Uncertainty: In some cases, high bond yields and rising stock prices may indicate market uncertainty or concerns about the sustainability of economic expansion. Investors may turn to bonds, seeking safer and more predictable returns, causing bond prices to decline and yields to rise.

Market Volatility and Uncertainty: High bond yields and rising stock prices can also indicate market volatility and uncertainty. It may suggest that investors are unsure about the sustainability of the current market conditions and are adjusting their portfolios accordingly. This can lead to a mixed or contradictory market sentiment, where some investors seek safety in bonds (pushing yields higher) while others remain optimistic about the stock market

Add to this inverted yield curve in the bond market occurs = yields on shorter-term bonds are higher than on longer-term bonds - * Potential Recession Indicator: Historically, an inverted yield curve has been seen as a potential precursor to an economic recession. In the past, such inversions have often preceded economic downturns, although the timing and severity of the subsequent recession can vary.

In my opinion, the goal of the Fed is to remove air money from the system - is this possible?
So many years of printing and helicoptering banknotes brought to the financial system real debts on the one hand, profit expectations of balloon companies, and high inflation
It's a very problematic combination, to say the least
If you want to take it out of the system and do a cleanup, then you have taken into consideration that it will charge prices - I'm not sure that the Fed wants to do all the necessary action, he is trying to walk between the drops

US Credit Liquidity and the Balance Sheet

I'm not a fundamental trader but I had to show you this side as well, let's move on to the real thing – charts
This time we will focus on Harmonic patterns on the S&P500 - Harmonic patterns, like any technical analysis tool, have both pros and cons

Pros:
Objective Entry and Exit Points
Enhanced Risk-Reward Ratio
Combines Fibonacci Ratios and Price Patterns

Cons:
Subjectivity and Complexity: Harmonic patterns require precise measurement and adherence to Fibonacci ratios, which can be subjective and challenging to identify accurately. Different traders may have varying interpretations of the same pattern, leading to inconsistencies in trade setups.

let's start with the first pattern - Shark pattern

The Shark Pattern it is an extreme harmonic impulse wave using the famous 0.886 retracements - The main factor that differentiates between the harmonic shark and other patterns is that it depends on the 88.6 percent and the 113 percent reciprocal ratios.

The Shark pattern is considered reliable when it adheres to the specific Fibonacci ratios and is confirmed by other technical factors.

• B point needs to be a minimum 113% but NOT exceed 161.8% of XA projection

• C point needs to be a minimum 161.8% but NOT exceed 224% of AB projection

• C point at 0.886 0X (not 0B) retracement of 1.13 0X projection.

• Entry is at 88.6% of OX leg with stops coming in at point C

• Targets can be the golden ratio of 61.8% of the BC leg.

The PRZ points could be: 4690+_/ 4960+_ /5140+_ points

S&P 500 shark pattern

Also, we can see the Cypher Pattern

AB leg moves higher to retrace the XA leg. This retracement should bring prices to between the 38.2 to 61.8 percent level of the XA leg.

BC leg moves lower and takes out the swing low at point A, and terminates between the 127.2 and 141.4 projection of the initial XA leg.

The typical range for the BC leg in the Cypher pattern is 1.272 to 1.414 of the AB leg. However, it is also possible for the BC leg to reach as low as 1.13 of the AB leg. This means that the BC leg can be a retracement that is 1.13, 1.272, 1.333, or 1.414 times the length of the AB leg.

CD leg moves higher and terminates near the 78.6% retracement level of the price move from point X to point C.

The PRZ points could be: 4450+_ / 4530+_ /4600+_ points

The Cypher pattern is known for its defined structure and adherence to Fibonacci ratios. When the pattern aligns with other technical factors such as support/resistance levels or trend lines

S&P 500 cypher pattern

This review does not include any document and/or file attached to it as advice or recommendation to buy/sell securities and/or other advice

Bullish Momentum Builds as EUR/USD Breaks Key Resistance Level

2023-05-04T00:24:00.008-07:00

EUR/USD Technical analysis

The technical outlook for EUR/USD depends on the timeframe being considered. In the short term, the pair may experience some volatility as traders respond to changes in market sentiment and economic data releases - we may see a very fast move towards 1.1180 1.1230 resistance and even to 1.1340 -1.1370 when the pair break above 1.1090 on daily basis

EUR/USD analysis

On the daily chart, the EUR/USD pair has been trending lower since early 2021, forming a series of lower highs and lower lows. The pair has also broken below key support levels, including the 1.2000 and 1.1800 levels, indicating a bearish bias.

The pair is currently trading above 1.0940, which could provide some support, but if the pair breaks below this level, it could lead to a further decline.

EUR/USD outlook

Overall, the technical outlook for the EUR/USD pair suggests that traders and investors should be cautious and watch for any potential reversal or bullish signals. Any significant break above key resistance levels, such as the 1.2100 level, could indicate a shift in sentiment and a potential reversal of the bearish trend

EUR/USD

This review does not include any document and/or file attached to it as advice or recommendation to buy/sell securities and/or other advice

Technical Review of the Current Market Trends on the NASDAQ

2023-03-29T23:28:00.002-07:00

Markets Technical Analysis

At the beginning of the year, I covered a post about the markets: "are markets going up to get amnesty, or its a trend change?"

now we are fighting -Will the long-awaited breakthrough come or will we be in for another kind of surprise? Tricky mode situation
Regarding support and resistance levels, the NASDAQ has established several key levels over the past few months. One notable support level is around the 11,600 level, which has held up as support multiple times since the market bottomed out in Sep 2022, An intermediate level rests on the 12300-12400 zone
The NASDAQ has established several key resistance levels, with the most notable resistance level currently around the 12800 level.

Nasdaq analysis

I noticed that we may have a harmonic pattern emerging here

Bearish shark pattern is a technical chart pattern is typically characterized by the following features:

An initial price swing (XA) that is bearish and significant in size.
A retracement (AB) typically between 38.2% and 61.8% of the XA leg.
A rally (BC) is typically 113% to 161.8% of the AB leg.
A second retracement (CD) typically retraces 61.8% of the BC leg.
A final rally (DE) that fails to exceed the high of the BC leg.
The pattern is considered bearish because it suggests that the price is likely to decline following the completion of the pattern. Traders may look for short-selling opportunities when the price reaches the completion point of the pattern, which is typically at the D point.
The profit target for the bearish shark pattern is typically at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the BC leg.

Nasdaq Trading Pattern

This review does not include any document and/or file attached to it as advice or recommendation to buy/sell securities and/or other advice

Does the Dow Jones, which was an initial indicator, now indicate continued weakness in the markets?

2023-02-22T01:55:00.003-08:00

Markets Technical Analysis

If we look carefully at the Dow Jones index then we can identify a harmonic pattern: Bearish Cypher pattern

Before I explain the essence of the template, trading goals, etc.

Keep those numbers in front of your eyes:
A daily Break below 33100 points will confirm more downtrend correction to the 31800-32100+- point area while staying above it will suggest support for buying with a tight stop

Dow Jones analysis

A bearish Cypher pattern is a type of technical analysis chart pattern that can indicate a potential bearish trend reversal. It is formed by a series of price swings and Fibonacci retracements. Here are the key characteristics of a bearish Cypher pattern:

Initial move: The pattern starts with a bearish trend.
Corrective move: The price moves up in a corrective wave, retracing a portion of the initial move.
Impulsive move: The price then moves down in a strong bearish move, surpassing the initial low.
Final move: The price corrects higher in another corrective wave, but fails to exceed the previous high.

The bearish Cypher pattern is complete when the price reaches the point where the impulsive move began. This level is referred to as "point D," and is often identified as a potential resistance level.

to identify potential price targets for the upcoming downtrend: The key Fibonacci retracement levels to watch for are 38.2%, 61.8%, and 100% of the initial move (X to A).
Some traders use a conservative approach and set their initial price target at the 38.2% retracement level. This level is typically considered a minor support level, and the price may encounter some resistance at this level before continuing lower.

Other traders may use a more aggressive approach and set their initial price target at the 61.8% retracement level. This level is typically considered a major support level, and the price may encounter significant support at this level before continuing lower.
If the price continues to move lower, the 100% retracement level is the final target for the pattern. This level represents a complete reversal of the initial move, and the price may encounter strong support at this level.

The reliability of the bearish Cypher pattern is generally considered to be a less common and less reliable pattern compared to other harmonic patterns, sometimes difficult to distinguish from other patterns, such as the bearish Shark or 5-0 patterns.

This review does not include any document and/or file attached to it as advice or recommendation to buy/sell securities and/or other advice

are markets going up to get amnesty or its a trend change?

2023-01-24T05:15:00.001-08:00

Markets Technical Analysis

I haven't written in a long time

The last post on the markets was in June 2022

There wasn't too much to update on the markets, but it seems that we are reaching test levels that will determine whether the declines are over or whether it is just a phase

Is it just a matter of rally January Effect?

Everyone is talking about a mild recession

Everyone thinks the Fed will lower interest rates this year

On the other hand, the actual economy shows negative signs - layoffs, a decrease in consumption, and negative growth - has the awful news become good?

Is the consensus clear?

Is the stock market ahead of the future or is it in euphoria?

Reports of the major ones are ahead of us

Many questions have many answers

We will go to the graphs that tell the story without background noise, and we will technically check what the story is, and where we are

I will focus on the NASDAQ

markets analysis

NASDAQ:
For the future to come as I said in the last post
Need to see what is happening in the areas of 12800 is critical
If those levels will go above on a daily basis- the story change!
Also, I mention many times about 11680 points
The major trend in the markets is a negative trend
Minor trend positive as long we stay above 11680
Looking for 12030 to see if we can move up to 12100, 12300-12430,12600 and 12800
Correction at this stage to areas 11680 _ is quite likely for those who looking for a reconnection to extended trade to the levels I mentioned above, alternatively, a decline from area 11600 will confirm that we get back to a downtrend

Nasdaq

Looking at a long-term graph of the NASDAQ, you can clearly see when it is positive and when it is negative
Green bands (uptrend) and red (downtrend)
It can be noticed that even during the major corrections in 2000-2001, it remained red until 2003
So from this point of view, there is nothing to think that Hook has changed his skin yet - talking about 2023

Nasdaq forecast

This review does not include any document and/or file attached to it as advice or recommendation to buy/sell securities and/or other advice

Until when BOJ intervention on USD/JPY continues?

2022-11-01T06:00:00.001-07:00

USD/JPY Technical analysis

last intervention from Japan was on Friday 21.10.22 after USD/JPY tested 152.00 to the upside before ultimately moving to lows of 146.23 in a quick, aggressive manner - price action that is indicative of official intervention.

There are some reasons for JPY weakness besides US dollar's strength

1. The Japanese household sector Tended to be more interested in foreign exchange margin trading and trading in cryptocurrencies, which are closer to speculation than to investment interest in jpy assets has been steadily increasing

2. U.S. share prices seen since 2020 reflects Japanese households’ desire to bet on foreign economies rather than on Japanese households’ investment appetite for foreign shares has taken

3. financial education triggering the shift away from savings toward investment.
interest in foreign investments, centering on U.S. shares, may be the prelude to a shift away from domestic assets.

4. investment activities will accelerate any time soon. However, Japan is a society where, once a certain trend catches on, everybody follows along with alacrity.

Now let's go examine charts and see what is expected

I'm looking for topping at 153- 155

USD JPY forecast

Technical view shows that below 145+_ price area it will print 139 +_

USD/JPY analysis

major support for a long-term stay at 139 +_ price level

USD/JPY trend

This review does not include any document and/or file attached to it as advice or recommendation to buy/sell securities and/or other advice

Gold continues the trend similar to past moves

2022-10-21T00:56:00.011-07:00

Gold Price Analysis

The gold continues to resemble past moves

Back in 2021, in the month of August, "Has the affirmative rise in gold ended and the great decline in gold is before us"?

I mentioned the future to occur in the movement of gold

Last August we received an overwhelming confirmation of the move - check the last pot

XAU USD analysis

Now I see 2 possible scenarios according to the downward trend and compared to past moves and their configuration, I marked them on the graph with exclamation marks in the previous actions and white arrows in the current move

The first option is continued declines from the last low
In terms of bands and price, a drop below the 1610 area, the last low we saw on 28.9, will lead in the first stage to the 1580-1590 area.
A break of the 1580-1590 zones will send gold to face lower levels 1560-1570 with an option to the 1540 zone

The second option is a temporary stop and support at the level of the last low
In terms of bands and price, 1610+_ which is the last low we saw on 9/28 will lead to a correction to the 1670-1690 area
In the areas of 1670-1690, we will get a rising roof that will send gold to deal with the lower levels mentioned in the first option

gold analysis

long term I am waiting for this:

gold forecast

This review does not include any document and/or file attached to it as advice or recommendation to buy/sell securities and/or other advice

USD /JPY forex pairs 3 scenarios to watch

2022-08-15T12:19:00.004-07:00

USD /JPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Following on from what I wrote in the previous post

This time I will discuss 3 scenarios for the pair

won't bore you with words and I will put 3 charts here for your reference

just take into consideration that the 131 price area needs to hold for those scenarios

Harmonic Pattern BAT

Harmonic trading Pattern

Bearish Butterfly Pattern

Harmonic Trading Pattern

Bearish Crab Pattern

Trading Pattern

This review does not include any document and/or file attached to it as advice or recommendation to buy/sell securities and/or other advice

gold price settles in anticipation of the next move

2022-08-03T01:32:00.002-07:00

Gold Price Analysis

Gold price settles at the main bearish trend
Until we get a clearer signal for the next trend, which is located resistance -located now at 1784 - or breaking 1807.

I recommend reading the review i wrote at 11.8.2021

"Has the affirmative rise in gold ended and the great decline in gold is before us"?

XAU USD analysis

Gold has recovered from the downtrend support and we are looking for a reaction / possible bias in the stretch towards yearly downtrend resistance or that prices are going to achieve lower targets

XAU USD technical analysis

To get approval for the uptrend move, we need to watch what will happen in the resistance prices at 1821-1834, while breaking the support represents at 1730 +_ price the key to resume the main bearish wave and heading to achieving negative targets at 1640 -1580- 1480-1460

XAU USD outlook

On the other hand, I saw something that caught my eye
Pay attention to the position of producers against the positions of non-reporting traders
In April 2019 there was a similar situation - after which, the price started to rise from the 1300 area to the 2060 area - you should pay attention to this!
(But support and approval for this scenario should only come in coordination with approval of breaking the objections I mentioned)

XAU USD price

Want to trade on gold - The best trading condition

13 pips spread only on XAU/USD

Up to 1:500 leverage

Regulated Forex Broker

This review does not include any document and/or file attached to it as advice or recommendation to buy/sell securities and/or other advice

USD/JPY’s decline is the story ended?

2022-08-01T08:05:00.000-07:00

USD JPY Technical Analysis

The U.S. dollar edged lower last week, weakening especially against the Japanese yen as the market reassessed the Federal Reserve’s tightening path
The dollar sank to its lowest level versus the yen since mid-June below 132 yen, down more than 5%
If the FED doesn't continue with aggressive policy and interest rate hikes it will put much less pressure on the Bank of Japan to buy bonds.
we're starting to see some reversion to the mean.
The currency pair is extremely sensitive to changes in long-term US yields

USD/JPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Technical analysis:
short-term trend stays on the downside for 132 resistance turned and below 130-131.
strong support is expected 126 +_ area.

USD/JPY SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK

On the upside, a break of 136 will bring a positive outlook back to retest the last high and even a new high

USD/JPY POSITION

extended outlook will stay bullish as long as 126 holds.

USD/JPY

This review does not include any document and/or file attached to it as advice or recommendation to buy/sell securities and/or other advice

The bear market rally is on the way?

2022-06-20T10:49:00.007-07:00

Markets Technical Analysis

USA markets are down 9 out of the past weeks, for the third time in its entire history (1970, 1982, 2001 being the priors) In 2001 it marked the start bear market rally before the bear market continued for nearly another year.

Last week after the big sale on Thursday and breaking a very important support levels, Friday ended as a consolidation day, if you will look closely, you can see that QQQ's lowest points on Friday invited buyer greed combined with a high trading turnover vol

Today there is a vacation on the US stock exchanges so there is no great significance to contracts - tomorrow we will be smarter

If we are facing a bear market rally I expect to see at least 12500- There may be a bouncy way to achieve these goals and even break the lows
But in the big picture, as long as the index does not break the 10890 area on a daily basis then everything is open

LAST POST ON 30.2.2022 must be read

also please look at the other to get some perspective

An unusual year started how will it end?

Are there any signs of the coming future for stock markets in 2022?

is it the time to be or not to be in the markets

markets technical analysis

NASDAQ:
For the future to come as I said in the last post
Need to see what is happening in the areas of 12800-13100 is critical
If the levels of area 13200-13300 are broken on a daily basis, then the target of area 14200-14500 is on the horizon.
correction at this stage to areas 11680 12030 _ is quite likely for those who looking for a reconnection to extended trade To the levels I mentioned above, Alternatively, a decline from area 10890 downwards will signal continued weakness in the market: In the first stage to area 10500 + _ then area 9200 + _

NASDAQ forecast

The resemblance to 2001

NASDAQ analysis

This review does not include any document and/or file attached to it as an advice or recommendation to buy/sell securities and/or other advice

Is sanity back into the stock markets?

2022-05-30T08:33:00.013-07:00

Markets Technical Analysis

When the headlines explode into over-optimism / over-pessimism, prepare for a revolution

On March 13, they made headlines:
"U.S. Major Indexes All Enter Death Cross"
What happened?
The market has corrected sharply upwards:
Nasdaq from Area 12900 to Area 15200
S&P 500 from area 4130 to area 4630

On May 20, they made headlines again:
"Stocks continue to fall, Wall Street enters a bear market "
What happened again?
As of this writing
The market has corrected sharply upwards:
Nasdaq from area 11560 to area 12800
S&P 500 from area 3860 to area 4170

Now let's go see what we have and where the markets are headed
I suggest to those who have not read my reviews since the beginning of the year a peek and get an idea of the preparations we had before this whole move, as well as up and down trading targets

An unusual year started how will it end?

Are there any signs of the coming future for stock markets in 2022?

is it the time to be or not to be in the markets

Markets outlook

Now the question is whether we have another wave going down or the declines have ended: it is too early to say that the declines have ended, now the market is in the process of declining

Nasdaq:

Need to see what is happening in the areas of 12800-13100 is critical
If the levels of area 13200-13300 are broken on a daily basis, then the target of area 14200-14500 is on the horizon, on the other hand, a correction at this stage to area 12400 + _ is quite likely for those looking for a long-distance connection
Alternatively, a decline from area 12030 downwards signaled continued weakness in the market

Important thing: In terms of trading bands and oscillators that I work with: I have said more than once or twice, that I see a stop at Nasdaq in the area of 11680 points, and I aimed there in January this year that the market trades in the area of 14600 + _

Stock Markets outlook

S&P 500:

Need to see what is happening in the areas of 4160-4200 are critical
If these levels of area 4230-4260 are broken on a daily basis, then the target of area 4430 + _ is on the agenda when before that there is the area of -4360 -4320 + _, on the other hand, a correction at this stage to area 4100 - is quite likely for those looking for a long way
Alternatively, a decline from area 4020 downwards signaled continued weakness in the market
To summarize things - in the short term:
stay Long is a trend as long as the S&P 500 is trading above 4020 points levels
Short term: Breaking down area 4020 will lead to 3930-3960 area with licking to 3850 - Below the story changes!
Long term - bail to blue strip cross up again (4410-4430 pints)

S&P 500 technical analysis

conclusion

S&P 500- Only Breakthroughs areas 4410-4430 Will Return the Market to a Positive
NASDAQ- Only Breakthroughs areas 14200-14500 will return the market to a positive

it's currently in the process of a drop-off facility - we have not yet moved into positive territory

This review does not include any document and/or file attached to it as an advice or recommendation to buy/sell securities and/or other advice

Will The trend in the markets sweep Bitcoin into a negative vortex again

2022-04-27T00:53:00.008-07:00

Bitcoin price analysis

The last post on Bitcoin was

" Is bitcoin on its way to closing old gaps"?

in addition to what I was writing - there is another pattern that you can see clearly: the Bear flag pattern

p/s

To get formation approved we need to see bitcoin drop below 34,800$

The Bear flag pattern develops in a bearish trend or when a bearish trend is about to be formed and when sellers/bears are in control.

A bearish flag is characterized by a sharp drop in price followed by a period of gradual price congestion moving higher within a channel.

After the market makes a strong down move, it enters into consolidation -On break out of the bearish flag, the price then travels a minimum distance from the flag

Technical analysis

Resistance level- 41000, 45000

Support level- 37000, 34800 -35800 ,33000, 28000, 24000, 21000,

Open gap at 24000 $ price area

bitcoin analysis

There is a trading pattern that caught my eye: Cypher Pattern

The Cypher pattern is a reversal formation within the harmonic class of patterns. It occurs across various financial markets including forex, futures, stocks, and crypto. Having said that, it is a less commonly seen structure compared to some other harmonic patterns such as the Gartley, Bat, and Butterfly patterns.

Cypher pattern consists of four separate price legs, with certain clearly defined Fibonacci relationships. We will be discussing each of the important Fibonacci ratios within specific rules and conditions that must be met for it to be specified.

We can see that the pattern is a five-point structure, denoted as XABCD. As such, there are a total of four individual legs that make up the pattern. The first leg is the XA leg, the second leg is the AB leg, the third leg is the BC leg, and the final leg is the CD leg. Can you see how the A point and the C point within the bullish cypher structure are making higher highs, and similarly, how the B point is making a higher low

Bullish Cypher

The AB leg must retrace the XA leg by at least 38.2%, and it should not exceed 61.8%.

The C point within the structure should be a minimum 113% projection of the XA leg, measured from point B. At the same time, the C point should not extend beyond the 141.4% level.

Point D should terminate at or near the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the price move as measured from the start at point X to point C.

This review does not include any document and/or file attached to it as an advice or recommendation to buy/sell securities and/or other advice

Do we have markets dispersion or new highs on the way?

2022-03-23T03:44:00.004-07:00

Markets Technical Analysis

As early as December 2021, there were signs on the board that this time it would be different...

Are there any signs of the coming future for stock markets in 2022?

This year started unusually and it and it seems right now that it will remain like this….

In January before the war between Ukraine and Russia started I post:

A phase of declines in the markets or momentary intimidation

After that things became messier and in February I post: An unusual year started how will it end?

Now we see recovers on markets – are they real and we may see a new high or it's just a pause before another leg down

The situation is very tricky unclear and the danger has not yet passed Maximum care is required

Markets still cruising in negative territory - has not moved to a definite long move!

At the moment it is still defined as a correction to the declines we have experienced

To summarize things – short term: stay Long is a trend as long as the S&P 500 is trading above 4410 points levels
Short term: Breaking area above 4583 will lead to the area I mentioned with a stop on the area of 4410 and reinforcement in the boat above area level 4620
Short term: Breaking area 4410 will lead to 4360 area with licking to 4260 - Below the story changes!
Long term – caution till blue strip cross up again (4610 pints)

S&P 500 technical analysis

Energy, food, and housing prices are rising rapidly, with central banks raising interest rates for the first time since 2018 in an attempt to control the inflationary eruption
War is still raging in Europe.....
The corona is here for the time being on a small fire and hopefully, he will describe it that way
The chip crisis is still here
Logistical and supply problems exist all over the world
It will take time to know what the full impact of global interest rate hikes will be on the markets - how many times will they rise? How fast will they go up? What interest rates will we get?
And maybe all this news is already priced and there is no surprise here
The big question here is do we witness the retail investors are buying the dip hoping to get a bargain, while the institutional investors are selling the rally, or rather institutional investors Equipped with goods based on expectations for the future, and think that there are bargain prices in the market

In 2018 we saw the same recovery up to green strip and failed hard from there that’s why I keep telling you that caution is required!

markets analysis

This review does not include any document and/or file attached to it as advice or recommendation to buy/sell securities and/or other advice

The trend in the markets sweep Bitcoin into a negative vortex

2022-02-20T15:39:00.003-08:00

Bitcoin price analysis

It's been a long time since I published a post on Bitcoin

Bitcoin on its way to closing old gaps?

There is a trading pattern that caught my eye: Cypher Pattern

Bullish Cypher

The AB leg must retrace the XA leg by at least 38.2%, and it should not exceed 61.8%.

The C point within the structure should be a minimum 113% projection of the XA leg, measured from point B. At the same time, the C point should not extend beyond the 141.4% level.

Point D should terminate at or near the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the price move as measured from the start at point X to point C.

Technical analysis

Resistance level- 41000, 45000

Support level- 33000, 28000 , 24000 , 21000 ,

Open gap at 24000 $ price area

This review does not including any document and / or file attached to it as an advice or recommendation to buy / sell securities and / or other advice

An unusual year started how will it end?

2022-02-09T22:06:00.001-08:00

Stock Markets forecast

Are there any signs of the coming future for stock markets in 2022?

I've already written about the S&P 500

This time ill focus on the Nasdaq - Since a lot of money in the IPO and private raising market is directed in favor of technology stocks, Employee issues, chip shortages, salary levels, and bonus packages, It is worth examining what is being done

There are many similarities in trading patterns to past moves, who’ve started this way and ended differently

Nasdaq log chart

Let’s try to see where we stand now?

Positively for markets

Raising interest rates, which is the standard tool for fighting central bank inflation, risks weakening a fragile economy that is still riddled with uncertainty - so it may not be certain that the measures will be so bold and fast - there is a lack of clarity

Add to that companies on the U.S. stock market that have shed fat, and are beginning to converge on a model of decent value, and some might even say investment opportunities

On the other hand to the negative side

There are a considerable number of risks, from an epidemic that is still ongoing

Potential military conflict between Russia and Ukraine

Supply problems in the global supply chain, and rising inflation.

Transport and distribution costs are high

The cost of shipping a standard container from China to the U.S. West Coast remains more than three times what it was a year ago

Energy costs - The price increases of the energy sector are important because they affect almost all sectors as a critical input

Fed's interest rate

Looking forward, the path of current and future Covid-19 variants is still unknown, which could weigh on supply chains

Supply chain snags continued to drive up the price

Strong consumer demand continues to drive up the cost of shipping and energy.

Fed's interest rate hike and reducing purchases

The Federal Reserve said he will raise interest rates in March and re-approved plans to end its bond purchases

now let's move to charts

on the negative side -as long the Nasdaq trade below 15,400 points (15,130-15,440) - the scenario could lead to more downtrends

Nasdaq short scenario

If we are talking about a long-term bear scenario see the previous case

Nasdaq long term short scenario

on the positive side, we can similarly on the previous case - but I want to see closed levels above what I mention - yet We have not received confirmation for this from the oscillators

Nasdaq analysis

This review does not include any document and/or file attached to it as advice or recommendation to buy/sell securities and/or other advice

A phase of declines in the markets or momentary intimidation

2022-01-25T01:54:00.001-08:00

Markets Technical Analysis

Deceptive markets

The truth is that the previous post reflected exactly the picture

I did not just write the following sentence

is it the time to be or not to be in the markets

Let's consider whether we are facing further declines, or whether we had a quick and violent correction here?

Markets outlook

Right now after yesterday's violence in the indices, the picture is not entirely clear

In terms of technical levels

Currently, the market is negative as long as the index is trading below 4520 + _ with a higher level of caution in the 4580 + _ range

Markets analysis

In terms of short to medium term, the test level is currently in the 4450 range

Markets trend

we can see clearly the huge vol yesterday !!!

future volume

An interesting year awaits us in the markets – I wrote about this in the last article and it is worth reading: Are there are any signs of the coming future for stock markets in 2022?

Will we see this year’s numbers above 5000 or below 4000 or maybe even both…

This review does not include any document and/or file attached to it as advice or recommendation to buy/sell securities and/or other advice

is it the time to be or not to be in the markets

2022-01-10T10:20:00.000-08:00

An interesting year awaits us in the markets

Everyone was waiting for the January effect

In the meantime, they appear to have received a January defect

What next ???

An interesting year awaits us in the markets - I wrote about this in the last article and it is worth reading

Are there any signs of the coming future for stock markets in 2022?

Will we see this year's numbers above 5000 or below 4000 or maybe even both...

The corona is here to stay one way or another and everyone seems to understand that

The question is whether the risks are already priced, or is their excessive confidence here, and the continuation of the markets is not priced at all

In my opinion, technically the market is still long

If you look purely technically at the leading S&P 500 index, then you can see notable things:

chart Trend - Corona Strips moves

The support of the Green Strip during the slump of the S&P 500 in February 2020:

Twice touched it, October 2020, and October 2021.

To summarize things - Long is a trend as long as the S&P 500 is trading above 4450 points levels

S&P 500 forecast

Short term: Breaking area 4583 will lead to the area I mentioned, opposite Long above this level with a stop on the area of 4450 and reinforcement in the boat above area level 4620

Below the story changes!

S&P 500 outlook

Also suggests looking and reading this too

Markets prediction for the following years -This has happened 2 times in the history of the S&P 500, will this time be the 3rd

p.s

In terms of the forex segment, there are currently no signs of anything serious and usually, the forex market is ahead of the stock market

Good luck - a productive and healthy trading year for everyone

This review does not include any document and/or file attached to it as advice or recommendation to buy/sell securities and/or other advice

DayTrade-Profit

Gold Price Alert: Is XAU/USD Parabolic Spike Signaling a Reversal?

Technical Review: Gold (XAU/USD)

Crude Oil Price Outlook: Navigating Key Levels in a Dynamic Market

SP500 Market Forecast: A Path to 5500-5600 Before a Potential Bubble

SP500 Market Forecast: A Path to 5500-5600 Before a Potential Bubble-Like Surge

Potential for a Bubble-Like Surge

Historical Parallels and Risks

Investor Guidance

Conclusion

Stay tuned for further updates on this evolving market scenario.

Navigating the S&P 500: Surviving Market Chaos Amid Global Turmoil

The S&P 500 in an Apocalyptic Scenario: Interpreting Harmonic Patterns Amid Global Turmoil

Has the Market Correction Started or its only pause

Markets analysis

Has the Market Correction Started? The question of whether a market correction has started is always a topic of interest among investors. However, it's not always easy to answer. Market corrections are typically identified in hindsight, and their onset can be difficult to pinpoint in real-time.

a significant drop in a single day does not necessarily indicate correction. Instead, it's crucial to look at trends over a more extended period.

Commitment of Traders

A crossroads of decisions in the market is ahead of us

Overview of markets and risk assets

It’s not where it's when the correction will come

Are we seeing the high for the short-medium period?

not yet be

Do stock market expectations reflect the situation?

Does the economic situation of the stock market combined with the bond markets reflect the real problem?

We have contradictions in many economic models that we now see in markets and economies, this is not a healthy situation sign - someone will have to reset and get back into balance

Market Uncertainty: In some cases, high bond yields and rising stock prices may indicate market uncertainty or concerns about the sustainability of economic expansion. Investors may turn to bonds, seeking safer and more predictable returns, causing bond prices to decline and yields to rise.

I'm not a fundamental trader but I had to show you this side as well, let's move on to the real thing – chartsThis time we will focus on Harmonic patterns on the S&P500 - Harmonic patterns, like any technical analysis tool, have both pros and cons

Pros:Objective Entry and Exit PointsEnhanced Risk-Reward RatioCombines Fibonacci Ratios and Price Patterns

Cons:Subjectivity and Complexity: Harmonic patterns require precise measurement and adherence to Fibonacci ratios, which can be subjective and challenging to identify accurately. Different traders may have varying interpretations of the same pattern, leading to inconsistencies in trade setups.

Bullish Momentum Builds as EUR/USD Breaks Key Resistance Level

EUR/USD Technical analysis

Technical Review of the Current Market Trends on the NASDAQ

Markets Technical Analysis

At the beginning of the year, I covered a post about the markets: "are markets going up to get amnesty, or its a trend change?"

I noticed that we may have a harmonic pattern emerging here

Bearish shark pattern is a technical chart pattern is typically characterized by the following features:

Does the Dow Jones, which was an initial indicator, now indicate continued weakness in the markets?

Markets Technical Analysis

If we look carefully at the Dow Jones index then we can identify a harmonic pattern: Bearish Cypher pattern

Before I explain the essence of the template, trading goals, etc.

Keep those numbers in front of your eyes:A daily Break below 33100 points will confirm more downtrend correction to the 31800-32100+- point area while staying above it will suggest support for buying with a tight stop

A bearish Cypher pattern is a type of technical analysis chart pattern that can indicate a potential bearish trend reversal. It is formed by a series of price swings and Fibonacci retracements. Here are the key characteristics of a bearish Cypher pattern:

The bearish Cypher pattern is complete when the price reaches the point where the impulsive move began. This level is referred to as "point D," and is often identified as a potential resistance level.

The reliability of the bearish Cypher pattern is generally considered to be a less common and less reliable pattern compared to other harmonic patterns, sometimes difficult to distinguish from other patterns, such as the bearish Shark or 5-0 patterns.

are markets going up to get amnesty or its a trend change?

Markets Technical Analysis

Until when BOJ intervention on USD/JPY continues?

USD/JPY Technical analysis

last intervention from Japan was on Friday 21.10.22 after USD/JPY tested 152.00 to the upside before ultimately moving to lows of 146.23 in a quick, aggressive manner - price action that is indicative of official intervention.

There are some reasons for JPY weakness besides US dollar's strength

1. The Japanese household sector Tended to be more interested in foreign exchange margin trading and trading in cryptocurrencies, which are closer to speculation than to investment interest in jpy assets has been steadily increasing

2. U.S. share prices seen since 2020 reflects Japanese households’ desire to bet on foreign economies rather than on Japanese households’ investment appetite for foreign shares has taken

3. financial education triggering the shift away from savings toward investment.interest in foreign investments, centering on U.S. shares, may be the prelude to a shift away from domestic assets.

4. investment activities will accelerate any time soon. However, Japan is a society where, once a certain trend catches on, everybody follows along with alacrity.

Now let's go examine charts and see what is expected

Gold continues the trend similar to past moves

Gold Price Analysis

Now I see 2 possible scenarios according to the downward trend and compared to past moves and their configuration, I marked them on the graph with exclamation marks in the previous actions and white arrows in the current move

USD /JPY forex pairs 3 scenarios to watch

gold price settles in anticipation of the next move

Gold Price Analysis

Gold price settles at the main bearish trend Until we get a clearer signal for the next trend, which is located resistance -located now at 1784 - or breaking 1807.

Gold has recovered from the downtrend support and we are looking for a reaction / possible bias in the stretch towards yearly downtrend resistance or that prices are going to achieve lower targets

USD/JPY’s decline is the story ended?

Technical analysis:short-term trend stays on the downside for 132 resistance turned and below 130-131. strong support is expected 126 +_ area.

On the upside, a break of 136 will bring a positive outlook back to retest the last high and even a new high

extended outlook will stay bullish as long as 126 holds.

The bear market rally is on the way?

Markets Technical Analysis

USA markets are down 9 out of the past weeks, for the third time in its entire history (1970, 1982, 2001 being the priors) In 2001 it marked the start bear market rally before the bear market continued for nearly another year.

Last week after the big sale on Thursday and breaking a very important support levels, Friday ended as a consolidation day, if you will look closely, you can see that QQQ's lowest points on Friday invited buyer greed combined with a high trading turnover vol

Today there is a vacation on the US stock exchanges so there is no great significance to contracts - tomorrow we will be smarter

If we are facing a bear market rally I expect to see at least 12500- There may be a bouncy way to achieve these goals and even break the lowsBut in the big picture, as long as the index does not break the 10890 area on a daily basis then everything is open

Is sanity back into the stock markets?

Markets Technical Analysis

When the headlines explode into over-optimism / over-pessimism, prepare for a revolution

On March 13, they made headlines:"U.S. Major Indexes All Enter Death Cross"What happened?The market has corrected sharply upwards:Nasdaq from Area 12900 to Area 15200S&P 500 from area 4130 to area 4630

Now the question is whether we have another wave going down or the declines have ended: it is too early to say that the declines have ended, now the market is in the process of declining

Nasdaq:

Has the Market Correction Started?
The question of whether a market correction has started is always a topic of interest among investors. However, it's not always easy to answer. Market corrections are typically identified in hindsight, and their onset can be difficult to pinpoint in real-time.

I'm not a fundamental trader but I had to show you this side as well, let's move on to the real thing – charts
This time we will focus on Harmonic patterns on the S&P500 - Harmonic patterns, like any technical analysis tool, have both pros and cons

Pros:
Objective Entry and Exit Points
Enhanced Risk-Reward Ratio
Combines Fibonacci Ratios and Price Patterns

Cons:
Subjectivity and Complexity: Harmonic patterns require precise measurement and adherence to Fibonacci ratios, which can be subjective and challenging to identify accurately. Different traders may have varying interpretations of the same pattern, leading to inconsistencies in trade setups.

Keep those numbers in front of your eyes:
A daily Break below 33100 points will confirm more downtrend correction to the 31800-32100+- point area while staying above it will suggest support for buying with a tight stop

3. financial education triggering the shift away from savings toward investment.
interest in foreign investments, centering on U.S. shares, may be the prelude to a shift away from domestic assets.

Gold price settles at the main bearish trend
Until we get a clearer signal for the next trend, which is located resistance -located now at 1784 - or breaking 1807.

Technical analysis:
short-term trend stays on the downside for 132 resistance turned and below 130-131.
strong support is expected 126 +_ area.

If we are facing a bear market rally I expect to see at least 12500- There may be a bouncy way to achieve these goals and even break the lows
But in the big picture, as long as the index does not break the 10890 area on a daily basis then everything is open

On March 13, they made headlines:
"U.S. Major Indexes All Enter Death Cross"
What happened?
The market has corrected sharply upwards:
Nasdaq from Area 12900 to Area 15200
S&P 500 from area 4130 to area 4630

Important thing: In terms of trading bands and oscillators that I work with: I have said more than once or twice, that I see a stop at Nasdaq in the area of 11680 points, and I aimed there in January this year that the market trades in the area of 14600 + _