The Healthy Scratch

The Malhotra Effect (Part 1)

2014-10-28T17:57:00.001-07:00

Watching the Habs dominate in the circle made me wonder about the impact that Manny Malhotra, one of the top faceoff specialists, had on the Canadiens this year. To further my curiosity, I heard Martin Lemay talking on TSN 690 about how Malhotra keeps detailed records on other team's centers and that he was been working with Lars Eller on improving Lars' faceoff technique.

I have compiled the data below that compares the faceoff winrate of the key centers on teams for the year before Malhotra with the year he arrived. I included all of the teams only after Malhotra had established himself as a dominant faceoff man. (All of the statistics were taken from NHL.com)

Montreal	Year Befor Malhotra (2013-2014)		Year with Malhotra (2014-2015)		Change
Player	FOs	Win %	FOs	Win %	Absolute	Change %
T. Plekanec	1712	48.00%	139	47.50%	-0.50%	-1%
D. Desharnais	1202	50.80%	138	57.20%	6.40%	13%
L. Eller	979	53.20%	96	56.20%	3.00%	6%

Carolina	Year Befor Malhotra (2012-2013)		Year with Malhotra (2013-2014)		Change
Player	FOs	Win %	FOs	Win %	Absolute	Change %
J. Staal	914	50.10%	1477	54.40%	4.30%	9%
E. Staal	1014	52.00%	1430	52.70%	0.70%	1%
R. Nash	289	44.30%	666	46.00%	1.70%	4%

Vancouver	Year Befor Malhotra (2010-2011)		Year with Malhotra (2010-2011)		Change
Player	FOs	Win %	FOs	Win %	Absolute	Change %
H. Sedin	1527	49.50%	1387	52.00%	2.50%	5%
R. Kesler	1401	55.10%	1496	57.40%	2.30%	4%


San Jose	Year Befor Malhotra (2009-2010)		Year with Malhotra (2010-2011)		Change
Player	FOs	Win %	FOs	Win %	Absolute	Change %
J. Thorton	1295	55.40%	1228	53.90%	-1.50%	-3%
J. Pavelski	1274	56.30%	821	58.10%	1.80%	3%
P. Marleau	591	52.40%	615	51.40%	-1.00%	-2%

Conclusion

Although the sample size for the Canadiens this year is too small to count, it does appear that both Carolina and Vancouver saw large net increases in winrate after Malhotra's arrival. The Sharks saw a net decrease.

Although we cannot be sure as to the reason for the increases in winrate (is it due to lower quality of competition, due to learning from Malhotra, or variance) it does seem like there is a positive trend on faceoffs when Malhotra arrives at a new team.

CHL players: Are they being exploited?

2014-10-24T09:42:00.001-07:00

Recently, the Toronto Star released an article in which they discuss a class action lawsuit by CHL players against the CHL with regards to player compensation. The importance of this suit cannot be understated as it's outcome could have a great impact on the development of Canadian hockey players.

The Issue:

The crux of the CHL argument is that players fall outside of the traditional employer-emloyee relationship that is covered by labour law because they are "student athletes" and thus the league is not obligated to compensate the players according to minimum wage standards.

The lawyers representing the players argue that the players are employees working in a "for-profit" industry and are thus required to be compensated fairly, or at a minimum by the provincial labour standards.

View:

I have read of number of different opinions on the matter and have taken some time for formulate my own. It is not conceivable how a league, that has "for-profit" franchise and is not an academic institution can claim that its participants are student athletes and not employees. And as employees, the vast majority of the players in the CHL are being exploited for the benefit of the owners of the teams and the entire junior system needs an overhaul.

The main argument often cited is that the CHL provides an opportunity for hockey players to make the NHL and it is a place for young athletes to chase their dream. However, the truth is that only a small fraction of CHL players will go on to have a professional hockey career and even a smaller fraction will play in the NHL. Given this, the goal in examining player compensation should be to see how it impacts the vast majority of players in the CHL.

I would propose the following changes to the CHL:

Players should be compensated, at a minimum, in accordance with local labour laws.
Because players are not covered by a collective agreement, they should be free to seek employment from any team and negotiate compensation with the team directly. There is no reason for players to be forced to play in specific locations and removing the draft would help raise player compensation and improve working conditions as teams would be competing for players.

Many will argue the result of this will be the bankruptcy of some of the lower revenue teams, and the loss of opportunity of players to pursue their "dreams" but this should have little impact of the players who would likely make the NHL or play professional hockey as they would be part of the top tier of junior hockey players and still be employed.

In all, there is no reason for a number of Canada's youth to be under-compensated and exploited because they chose to work in Canada's national pastime.

Dealing with the concussion epidemic

2012-04-17T20:16:00.000-07:00

The recent rash of dirty play and players injured with concussion made me think about how to reduce the frequency and severity of hits to the head.

It has become clear throughout the season that the NHL and NHL general managers have little interest in reducing the number of headshots, especially if this comes at the expense of rugged play. This has been particularly evident this playoff season when we here "it's playoff hockey" and "teams have an intense desire to win" cited as excuse for dirty, physical play that occurs both during the game and after the whistle.

If the NHL won't step up and provide leadership on the issue, then the NHLPA must step up and do a better job of protecting the majority of their members. Reading the comments of Jonathan Toews against the type of play that we have seen in the playoffs is a step in the right direction. Lets hope that other high profile players follow his lead.

As for the length of suspensions.

With the length of time concussed players spend on the sideline, I think that any suspensions need to be built around probability of time that the injured player may miss. The league must have data as to how many games on average a player concussed from a hit to the head misses.

The suspensions could start at that average plus a number of games depending on the severity of the act. Only when players start missing substantial time will they start to clean up their act. This could apply to any situation where there is "intent to injure" or any direct hit to the head. The amount of games added the average would increase based on repeat offenders.

The idea behind taking averages is that predicting the amount of time a concussed player will miss is so difficult and can vary by such wide amounts. However, the league needs to move away from situations like Keith, where Sedin has been out far longer then his aggressor, or Bergeron, where Jones received only two games and Bergeron was out for a year.

Canadiens roster rounding into form

2011-10-05T14:37:00.000-07:00

With the arrival of penalty killing and faceoff specialist Blair Betts today, the Canadiens roster is begining to round into form. At the same time, the Canadiens sent Engqvist to Hamilton, meaning that they have now demoted Palushaj,Blunden, Engqvist, and Woywitka in the past few days. Picking up Betts is a clear sign that management does not believe that the youngsters were up the task of playing in the NHL this year.

The Canadiens now have 24 players on the roster when everyone is healthy, an unlikely scenario, and might have to clear a spot on their roster at some point this year. The only players who don't need to pass through waivers or won't leave for Russia are Diaz and Subban. I think it is safe to say that, barring a trade, the Habs will send Diaz down if they need to make space on the roster once Markov is healthy.

With the first game of the season so close, I will post both my hope for the opening night lineup and for the long-term lineup when everyone is healthy.

Lineup for the opening night

Left	Center		Right
Cammalleri	Plekanec		Cole
Pacioretty	Gomez		Gionta
Darche	Desharnais		Kostitsyn
Moen	Betts		Weber
Injured: Eller, White
Left Defence		Right Defence
Gill		Subban
Campoli		Gorges
Spacek		Diaz
Extras: Yemelin Inj: Markov
Goaltender
Price
Budaj

Lineup once everyone is healthy

Left	Center		Right
Cammalleri	Plekanec		Cole
Pacioretty	Gomez		Gionta
Desharnais	Eller		Kostitsyn
Moen	Betts		White
Extras: Darche, Weber
Left Defence		Right Defence
Markov		Gorges
Gill		Subban
Campoli		Spacek
Extras: Diaz, Yemelin
Goaltender
Price
Budaj

The question I am left with is what will the Canadiens do with Yemelin long term? He clearly needs game time to adjust to the small ice surface and he will not get that being a healthy scratch. If the Habs don't try and develop him or frequently scratch him, then they run the risk that he will go back to the KHL. My solution would be to platoon him with Diaz to start the season to make sure the gets as much game time as possible. It is not everyday that the Habs have a 6'2 d-prospect who can hit and skate.

Lets hope that the Habs have a good year as they have far more forward depth then they have had in a long time. I am expecting a breakout year from Eller, Desharnais, and Kostitsyn with at least 40 points from each player.

Go Habs Go!

Shanahan backtracking from hot start?

2011-10-05T13:53:00.000-07:00

Last week, I was planning on writing a post on what a good job Brendan Shanahan was doing as the new chief disciplinarian and head of player safety with the NHL. I enjoyed that he would put out detailed videos explaining the infraction and the factors that contributed to the length of the suspensions. The fact that he was suspending players more frequently and for longer periods of time made it seem like the NHL was serious about ridding the game of dirty play.

The four suspensions that caught my eye were Shelley, Letourneau-Leblond, Wisniewski, and Jacques. I was surprised at the length of the Shelley and Wisniewski suspensions and that Jacques and Letourneau-Leblond were suspended at all. In the past, the league has not taking a strong stance against late game retribution and chippyness. The had introduced a one game suspension for instigating a fight in the final five minutes but the refs seemed afraid to call an instigator penalty in these situations. Case in point, are the two videos below between the Habs and Bruins where fights were started by one side, but no instigator was called.

McQuaid attack Pacioretty without a fight or instigator being called

Thorton fighting Hamrlik, Campbell fighting Pyatt, Boychuck fighting Spacek

Jacques jumping Duco - a play similar to the fights above

However, by suspending Shelley and Wisniewski, and Jacques the league signalled that they would discipline players rather than have the discipline happen on the ice - the norm in the NHL for that past number of years. The Jacques suspension, in particular, is an act that we have become accustom to seeing regularly at the end of games in recent years. I was extremely happy that Jacques was suspended because this is the type of thuggery and bullying that doesn't belong in a professional sport. As for the Letourneau-Leblond suspension, normally the NHL has not suspended a player for boarding if the player receiving the check is not seriously hurt and/or the player does not hit the boards in an awkward manner. In all the suspensions, the common denominator was that the suspended player targeted the head of an opponent and attempted to injure them.

The first sign of backtracking from this new mandate was the Sestito hit on Devaux. It would have been very easy to suspend Sestito, a player who was not expected to be in the NHL this year and is a goon, for a long time because he targeted the head of an opponent and charged across the ice to deliver the blow to them. However, Sestito was only suspended for the rest of the preseason and 2 regular season games. He was even put on waivers, with the intention of being assigned to the minor league club, before the suspension was handed down.

Malone on Campoli

This brings us to the Malone hit on Campoli. Both after seeing the hit at full speed and after the replay, this was a dirty hit that warranted a suspension under the NHL guidelines. Malone hit Campoli directly in the head. In Shanahan's statement, he said that Campoli had bent over just prior to being hit and after Malone had engaged in the check. While I agree that Campoli did bend over prior to being hit, he did so with enough time for Malone to minimize the amount of damage that he inflicted on a defenseless player, a consideration that is used on the boarding suspensions. the other major factor against Malone was the fact that he did not hit Campoli's body, which had not changed course as his head changed position, instead Malone drove through Campoli's head in a reckless manner. This hit should have been a suspension if the NHL is serious about shifting some of the responsibility to the hitting player, as Campoli never had a chance to defend himself.

From the response of the media and some players, it seems like fans are not the only ones left scratching their heads about Shanahan's decision.

Waiver Wire Pickups

2011-09-27T14:46:00.000-07:00

Every year, I actively watch the waiver wire to see which fringe NHLers are sent to the minors. Some names come up frequently, like Mike Zigomanis, Nolan Yonkman, and a series of others. However, every now and then, a few interesting names pop up and teams have access to a player that could potentialy make an impact on the season. Last year, the New York Islanders were lucky enough to benefit from Florida's mistake and grab Michael Grabner on waivers. Grabner went on to be one of the top rookies scorers and pot more than 30 goals for the Islanders. After scanning the wire quickly, which players could make an impact this year for teams and who do I think the Habs should try and pick up?

The first category of interesting players that could have an impact on an new team are those who are sent to the minors because they are not living up to their contract or the teams do not have adequate cap space to keep them at the NHL level. The most prominent players who have fallen into this situation are Christobal Huet, Wade Redden, and Ales Kotalik. All three players would most likely still be playing in the NHL if not for their contracts. However, it will be interesting to see if any of these three will get a shot in the next few years as the salary cap continues to rise and the impact of their contracts is diminished.

There are a few servicable defencemen on the wire this year, highlighted by Shaone Morrisonn, who has played for Washington and Buffalo at the NHL level, but was caught in a numbers game this year for the Sabres as they added Regehr, Erhoff, and youngster M-A Gragnani. Morrisonn has size, 6-4 and 210 pounds, and averaged just over 16 minutes of ice time last year so he should be able to find work in the NHL this year. Perharps the Islanders, who are in need of a defenceman would be a possible fit, plus they had success last year.

Another category of players who frequently pass through waivers are enforcers. This year, potential heavy-weight champ, Eric Godard, was placed on waivers by the Stars. Godard is in an interesting situation because he signed a two-year deal with the Stars in the offseason and has a two-way clause for the first year. With the Stars being strapped for cash and already having an enforcer, Krys Barch, albeit not of Godard's stature, singed for this season, it made sense for the Stars to waive Godard this year and plan to have him with the NHL club next season. I would have loved for the Habs to put a claim in for Godard. I have always felt that fighting has no place in hockey but it would make sense for the Canadiens to have an enforcer since the NHL does not share my opinion on fighting and seems to endorce violence. If you are going to have a goon, you might as well have one of the best and Godard definetely fits the bill. Plus, he seems comfortable with limited ice and game time, playing 20 games, and he is a team player, as is evident by his taking a 10 game suspension to protect backup goalie Brent Johnson.

Godard Fights

Godard coming off the bench

Godard vs Orr

Godard vs Neil

The other player who, in my opinion, should be of some interest to the Canadiens is Philly goon Tom Sestito. Although it appears that Sestito will soon be suspended for his hit on Andre Deveaux, he does fit the mold of a player the Habs are lacking. Although he does not appear to be as tough as Godard, he does have size, 6-5 and 220 pounds, and he is more capable of taking a regular shift scoring 4 points in 9 games with Columbus and 32 points in 46 games with their minor league affiliate last season.

Suspension looming for Sestito

This clip shows that Sestito can skate decently for a big man

Either Godard or Sestito could fit in with the Habs, with Sestito being my first choice, and provide some more grit on the fourth line. The downside to taking a shot on either is limited as they can both be sent to the minors on a two-way contract this year if they don't work out. The Habs could give them a quick try-out as players like White heal from injuries. It is not as if any of the current players in camp have played well enough to deserve a spot ahead of either of these two.

Habs sign Chris Campoli

2011-09-26T16:46:00.000-07:00

The Habs signed defenceman Chris Campoli today who played was with Ottawa and Chicago this past season. Campoli was an unrestricted free agent after Chicago refused his arbitration award and instead signed defencemen Sean O'Donnell, Sami Lepisto, and Steve Montador who will provide them with far more toughness.

Campoli, who turned 27 this summer, is listed at 6 feet and 190 pounds. His most productive offensive season was his rookie year, 2005-2006, when he scored 34 points for the Islanders, but also a -16 which is a career worst. He has only reached 30 points one other time in his career.

The most likely cause of this signing is that Markov's knee injury is worse than expected. Campoli plays left defense, a position that is under filled by the projected Canadiens defense to start the season. Currently, the Habs project to have Spacek and Gill as the other left defencemen, while Subban, Gorges, Yemelin, and Weber play on the right side.

This signing also appears to be a sign that the coaching staff does not have faith that Woywitka could fill a depth role at the NHL level and the some of the other youngsters, like Nash and Beaulieu, require more seasoning in Hamilton and junior.

I am not that happy with the signing because it seems that the only skill that Campoli brings is that he is left handed and can play on the left side. He has never shown to have a lot of offensive upside, nor has he shown the ability to be a strong defender, twice being -16 and never having a +/- greater than zero in a single season. His skill set - strong puck-mover, decent skater - seem to be duplicated in other youngsters, like Diaz and Weber, who are on the bubble. The Habs could have played Gorges on the left side to fill the need for a left d. I would like to have seen those two get a greater chance to prove themselves before the Canadiens reached out and signed Campoli.

Campoli signing on TSN.ca

Game 2: Their men vs the Habs' boys

2011-09-22T13:00:00.000-07:00

Habs fans expectations should have been pretty low when the line-ups for last night's pre-season game were announced. After all, the Habs were not even dressing one line that will be expected to play together this season while the the Sabres had their top three lines and top 4 D dressed for the game.

The result was a 3-1 loss by the Habs capped off by an empty net goal. Not only was the result better than fans could have expected, but the should have been pleasantly surprised by the strong return of Pacioretty, who looked comfortable on the ice, and the play by some of the prospects - Beaulieu and Gallagher in particular - who played far better than could have been anticipated. The biggest disappointment of the game was the play of Engqvist and Palushaj who were playing the second game in two nights.

Beaulieu looks like the real deal

After watching Beaulieu play more than 27 minutes, I hope that most fans have come away with the feeling that he is the real deal and he will be a stud in the future. Sure he seemed raw at times in his own zone, but his skating, vision, and poise with the puck were exceptional for a player playing his first game against competition stronger than major junior.

Three plays really stuck out in my mind that showed glimpses of his future. Early in the game, he made a beautiful long-bomb pass which demonstrated his vision. Second, I believe it was in the second period, when he evaded a forcheck by Brad Boyes while maintaining possession of the puck and he was able to make a nice outlet pass. It was a nice display of poise and confidence where other young defenseman might have turned the puck over or just tried to chip it up the boards. And third, his ability to get back in position after joining the rush showed that he has the speed to play in the NHL one day.

I am not trying to overhype him and say he is ready for the NHL this year but he could challenge for a spot next year with a solid year in junior.

Gallagher: Gionta Jr?

The second youngster who had a strong game was Gallagher. He was strong on the puck, drove the net, and showed glimpses that would make you want to compare him to the Habs diminutive captain, Brian Gionta. One particular sequence of note was during the third when he stickhandled through the Sabres defenseman. Gallagher showed far more drive and determination than some of the other prospects who have a chance to make the Habs roster this year.

Does anybody want the job of thirteenth forward?

The biggest disappointment of the game was the play of Palushaj and Engqvist for the second consecutive game. Both players seemed to lack determination and were invisible on the ice. From the past two games, I don't see a skill set that will translate well to the NHL for either of them. Palushaj seems like Maxwell in that he is not strong or fast enough to be a top 6 or top 9 scoring forward in the NHL. He doesn't have any skills in particular that stand out. While Engqvist seemed behind the play and also laked any elite or NHL skills apart from his size. From the game play so far, Blunden has played the best of the three players battling for the last spot.

Thoughts from the first pre-season game

2011-09-22T10:35:00.001-07:00

Two nights ago, I eagerly sat down to watch the first pre-season game of the season. My expectations for the game were not a quality hockey game, but more a chance to observe some of the Canadiens offseason acquisitions for the first time. The players I was eager to observe were Cole, Yemelin, Diaz, and the players who would be battling for the thirteenth forward spot (Engqvist, Palushaj, and Blunden).

As expected, Hab fans were not treated to a quality hockey game but we did get some glimpses of hope.

Cole was a great aquisition by Gauthier

From what we saw in the first game, Cole is exactly what this team was missing last year - a big, strong, fast winger who drives to the net and is not afraid to hit. Cole was strong on the puck and will compliment Pleks and Cammalleri well throughout the season. An added benefit of the Cole signing is that Kostitsyn will be freed to play against the other teams third lines. And as we saw from the game against Dallas, he seemed to thrive as the go-to-guy on the line. Maybe we will see his emergence as a more consistend offensive threat this season.

Yemelin has more tools than I expected

I was expecting Yemelin to be a physical force on D. However, I was surprised by his skating, his vision, and his ability to carry the puck. My initial expectation is still that he will be a 6-7 defenceman early in the season but I am now more confident that he will be a key part of the defence by the end of the season.

Diaz = Weber

As for Diaz, he didn't impress too much and seemed like a very similar player to Weber - same size, same skill set, and same style game. It seems like he will be Hamilton bound this season.

Battle for the thirteenth forward spot

I will go into more detail on this subject in my next post because both Engqvist and Palushaj played the following game.

What role will Yemelin play this year?

2011-09-19T11:25:00.000-07:00

Like many other Hab fans, I have waited patiently for the arrival of Alexei Yemelin. To my surprise, the Canadiens managed to lure the talented Russian defenceman to Montreal this year. I was happy to hear about this development because I was beginning to lose hope that we would ever see him in a Canadiens sweater given the fact that he kept signing new contracts in the KHL. With that said, what role can we expect Yemelin to play with the Habs this year?

With the top 4 (Markov, Gorges, Gill, Subban) essenstially a lock, the early expectation for Yemelin is to try and make the team as a member of the bottom pairing and playing beside Spacek. However, that being said, it doesn't mean that Yemelin cannot have an impact with the Habs this year. His skillset: big, tough, hard-hitting, and good skating has a many fans salivating over his potential. The one fear I have for Yemelin this year will be how he handles the toughness and intimidation of the NHL.

This year will let us know whether he can put those skills together and turn into a credible top 4 defenceman. If he can, the Habs will have a solid d-core for the next few years as the defence transitions from being led by Markov to one being led by Subban, Yemelin, Tinordi, Gorges, etc. The Habs have nothing to lose this year with Yemelin because the expectation of most fans was that he was a lost prospect along the lines of Korneev and Perezhogin.

Balk

My vision for the Habs D

At the begining of the year, the Habs could start with these combos.

Markov - Gorges
Gill - Subban
Spacek - Yemelin

If Yemelin proves he can play in the top 4, the could move him onto a pair with Markov. This would give the Habs good depth and the ability to roll the three pairs with no fear.

Markov - Yemelin
Gill - Subban
Spacek - Gorges