The Learning Curve by Muckdog

Sunday Game Day

2009-11-08T11:58:00.000-08:00

I'm still long the stock market. Haven't seen too big of reason to sell. I think the economy is recovering, and the bump up in the productivity numbers was nice to see at this point. It may be a bit before companies start hiring folks, but it seems as if we're on a normal economic recovery trajectory. Of course, interest rates are near 0% and gold is around $1100. There is that.

I've been dragging with this head cold the past week. Or swine flu. Whatever. I had a sore throat early last week, now just have a stuffy nose. Was only at work on Monday and Thursday. Thursday was a bit questionable. I didn't get much done, and opted to stay at home on Friday.

Home Sick

2009-11-04T18:56:00.001-08:00

Bleh. Fighting a cold or flu. I think the former. Anyways, on the sofa watching movies for two days straight.

Market Getting Smoked!

2009-10-30T11:01:00.001-07:00

Whoa Nellie, the market is tanking. Yesterday, we had a feel good bump but today we’re getting a feel bad thump. We had an early “quote delay issue” and then Traders also pointed to comments from billionaire investor Wilbur Ross on Bloomberg Radio Friday, saying a "huge crash in commercial real estate" is beginning, as adding to the worries across the financial sector. Mr. Ross, the chairman of W.L. Ross & Co. LLC, said occupancy and rent rates are falling while the rate of return that potential investors are seeking is rising.
So, yesterday is looking like a one-day wonder in this down trend. I thought maybe it was end of month stuff kicking in, but it all seems a bit larger than that.
Inexact climate models: Is the earth warming? Is the earth cooling? It all seems to be a guessing game with each side (alarmists vs. deniers) providing their quotes from science gurus far and wide, but the politicians want to take immediate action! "There is a lot of room for improvement" in the models, says Mojib Latif, a climate scientist in Germany and co-author of a paper predicting the planet will cool for perhaps a decade before starting to warm again -- a long-term trend he attributes to greenhouse-gas emissions. "You need to know what you can believe and can't believe from the models."
Hey, if you want to reduce CO2 it seems the best way is to build nuclear power plants and run cars on natural gas – until scientists figure something else out.
Did you see that spending dropped .5% in September? Wasn’t me. But with the cash for clunkers ending and a soft job market, folks are worried. Hey, employment is just a laggggging indicator!

The Slide Continues

2009-10-28T17:17:00.000-07:00

The market continues to sell off this week. Kind of refreshing, in a way. I think we need to reset before we can move higher. I'm not expecting anything ominous, since I feel that the economy is recovering and we will see slow to moderate growth going forward.
Of course, I didn't see anything ominous in 2007, either. Just being honest.
I mentioned yesterday that I had tried to upgrade my iPhone RSS Player to listen to podcasts. It's still not working but seems as if it will be resolved very soon. In the meantime, I've been using Mediafly. Try it. It's free. I'm not sure if I like it more than RSS Player, but it has some other features that may keep it on my iPhone.
NBA has started, and I'm in 2 fantasy basketball leagues. Geez, can't help myself. One is a total stats league, another is weekly head-to-head. Should be interesting.
Speaking of, the NBA has an app for the iPhone where you can listen to the audio streams of the games. Similar to what MLB did with baseball. Cool. Just $9.99.
Kind of interesting to watch the Health Care debate in Congress. I have no idea what will come out, but many moderates have said that they won't support it. Different polls say different things, but I haven't talked or emailed with anyone who likes the idea of a government public option. I know those folks are out there, but sometimes I wonder if the "excitement" about a public option is just a few people making a lot of noise.

Monday's Reversal and Distribution Randomosity

2009-10-27T10:20:00.001-07:00

The market had a nasty reversal yesterday. Opened up nicely and then just cratered. IBD has the market under pressure and noted that we've now had 9 higher volume declines, calling it "worrisome." IBD also tells investors to carefully mind their holdings. (LOL).
Well, the Washington Redskins also had a distribution day on Monday night, with another high volume loss.
Is Harry Reid gambling on a health care public option that allows states to opt out? I think it would be funny if all 50 states opted out. Hey, would it still be nationalized health care if everyone opted out?
Perhaps the Washington Redskins need a public option.
I love RSS Player for the iPhone, and was looking forward to the new release out yesterday. Unfortunately, it didn't install correctly. The software writer has notified Apple of the problem. But RSS Player has been my most used app, as I listen to lots of podcasts. Frustrating!
Back to the work at hand...

Sunday Market Thoughts

2009-10-25T11:46:00.001-07:00

The market took a break this past week. Is it more than a break? We’re heading into month end, which should be a positive, but the market has had such a run and has seen a bunch of distribution days the last couple of weeks. I remain 100% long, but I think we’ll see a correction soon. Why remain long? I just don’t have a feeling for timing or severity the correction. I believe we’re out of the recession and that we’ll see slow to moderate growth in the coming year.
How an insurance mandate may make people worse off. Good column. I like the phrase “mandate creep.” You know it will happen.
Invest like the best.
Silicon Valley Office vacancies near 20%.
US Empire in Decline. "People have predicted the end of America in the past and been wrong," Ferguson concedes. "But let's face it: If you're trying to borrow $9 trillion to save your financial system...and already half your public debt held by foreigners, it's not really the conduct of rising empires, is it?" I think he’s right, as folks expect more and more from the government instead of self-reliance. But hoping he’s wrong.
Summary: Lots of negative news headlines. Maybe that’s the best reason to stay bullish.
From Mark Cuban, the DVR vs. Internet video.
Speaking of, I powered through Stargate Universe this past week. Like it enough to keep recording it. It has similar dark undertones to Battlestar Gallactica. Another day in Fantasy Football where I play the last place team and they score like crazy.
Even though my team is scoring like crazy. What a frustrating game. LOL.

Sy Harding Abandoning Seasonal Strategy?

2009-10-21T19:29:00.001-07:00

Is Sy Harding (not pictured) abandoning his market timing seasonal strategy? I think this is a pretty interesting column for what is supposed to be a non-emotional investing strategy. …although the remarkable performance of STS was achieved by strictly following its entry and exit rules, this time we are going to use our other strategy, our Market-Timing Strategy, currently neutral on the market, to determine when the STS re-entry will take place.
Steve Jobs (not pictured, either) made $103.5 million in the market on Wednesday. How’d you do? (Hat tip to Crossing Wall Street).
Monica Raymund from Lie to Me. Hubba hubba.
Not a good day in the market. If you left an hour early, you missed a lot. I remain 100% long at this point.
The Lesson of State Health Care Reform. Like participants in a national science fair, state governments have tested variants on most of the major components of the health-care reform plans currently being considered in Congress. The results have been dramatically increased premiums in the individual market, spiraling public health-care costs, and reduced access to care. In other words: The reforms have failed.
Black Thursday was 80-years ago!

DOW 10K: Easy Come, Easy Go

2009-10-17T12:15:00.001-07:00

Everyone was excited. At least for a little while. It is amazing that we first hit 10K in 1999. One would think the market has been unplugged for 10 years. It’s been a roller-coaster of highs and lows.
Pictured? Dichen Lachman from Dollhouse. Hubba hubba.
Say, what was really in that balloon? LOL: “The 2009 Nobel Peace Prize ballots” More good ones at the link!
Something is wrong with Wall Street.
Something is wrong with me. Working way too much. On a huge-dollar project, and as someone told me “You’re getting a lot of visibility.” Better end up good, huh? Otherwise, it can turn into one of those Brady Quinn – Derek Anderson fiascos. Anyways, I haven’t given up on blogging or the desire to do so. Honest.
Bought a new wireless keyboard and mouse. Overall? Like it! Less cables! Sometimes, it seems as if the keyboard misses a keystroke or two. Wait! You think maybe that’s more attributable to my typing skills?
I’m listening to Motley Crue, Saints of Los Angeles.
SuperFreakonomics isn’t even on sale yet, and the attacks on our chapter about global warming are already underway. That’s the funny thing about the emotionally-charged beliefs about global warming. The alarmists are quick to attack. Read the link. Maybe you’ll be surprised at what Steven Levitt really believes about global warming.
State revenue falls most since 1963. U.S. state tax collections tumbled the most in almost half a century in the second quarter as the economic recession curbed levies on incomes and sales.
Meanwhile, the debate continues on how much exactly health care will cost you. Look, it’s going to cost more than what you currently pay. There are over 40M people who currently do not have health care, will now be going to the doctor. Increasing demand absent of increasing the supply of health care (doctors, nurses, medicine, facilities) will lead to increased costs. The estimated additional costs are somewhere between an additional $800B (CBO number) and $2T (Joe Biden number). And then government estimates are usually a bit short by some exponential factor.
On tap for today? Watching college football and drinking BEER! Life is good. Just saying.
Hey, moved the USB dongle for the wireless keyboard to the front USB port, which is closer to the desk, and that seems to have improved my typing skills. Woot!
Hey, it is okay if we disagree politically, right? Lets agree on football and beer, and let the rest fall by the wayside.
Ending the blog entry with a little Ray Davies. Cooler, calmer and more collective. Or, maybe that should be reflective. Bring on football and beer!

Saturday Randomosity

2009-10-10T12:28:00.001-07:00

The market had a great week. There were a lot of grumblings last week after two weeks in a row of negative returns, only to bolt back up this week. I’m still 100% in. No reason to do anything else right now.
Why Lady Ga Ga? I though the Saturday Night Live episode last weekend was pretty good. So take this picture and “throw it to the ground!” Nice butt shots on the Disco Stick performance. LOL.
Wow, interest rates are really low. Under 5% now for a 30-year fixed rate. It’s great if you’re not upside down on your house! It may not last, as Bernanke said higher rates are coming with an improved outlook. Have to act quickly on this, IMHO.
Have you been following Mike Murphy’s goal of turning $2000 into $1M? Hulbert with the details.
I think it was cool that Ga Ga was in some skits, too.
Working a lot lately. Starting to grind me down. Working today, but taking a break. I forgot how blogging is a little like therapy for me. Blog more, Muck.
Barack Obama wins the Nobel Peace Prize. Now there’s a brain teaser. Good commentary: “Something doesn’t feel right.”
Tax hikes to cover government workers’ pensions? A taxpayer group found an apparent link between high public employee pension costs and tax hikes in a study of 17 cities in San Diego County.
Tech stocks have had a great run, and next week the big earnings numbers start rolling in. Intel on deck…
Nobel Prize for best place to live? Norway. You’ve gotta be frakkin’ with me now. Hey, sign me up for a summer vacation. But live there year round? Norway, the land of fjords, Vikings, vodka, and blonde hair, is now also the most desirable place to live, according to the United Nations.
Disco Stick.

Pre-season Rally!

2009-10-06T21:07:00.000-07:00

The market rock and rolled again today. Amazing that we're seeing this after the quarter-end and early month 401k adds. We had two negative weeks in a row, and now when you think that we'd see some weakness, two nice days up.

Go figure. Screw historical patterns. Ride the trend.

Earnings season about to get under way, so maybe this is all pricing in some forward-looking optimism.

***

NBA pre-season games? WHAT? Wow, here we are!

I see Minnesota Twins beat the Detroit Tigers in the one-game playoff. Amazing that 162 games later, it all comes down to one game. Why even play the other 162? Heck, with extra-innings, too. Maybe they should have just played extra innings from the start and not waste all our time.

Work is very busy. I'm sad that I don't have much break time or lunch time to surf the web and keep up with my favorite blogs. Usually, I venture around and comment on stories and blogs, but really have been so under the gun at the Fun Factory that I don't have time to glance at the iPhone.

The other sad thing is lack of work outs and exercise. Yeeesh, gotta get back on that or else that Halloween candy will take a toll...

Moonshot Monday

2009-10-05T12:14:00.001-07:00

Wow, I'm checking the market numbers over a veggie burrito. Nice way to start the week. Especially after we have had two negative weeks in a row.

Remaining long.

•••

I'm about ready to dump Tony Romo on my fantasy team. Good grief.

Slide Continues

2009-10-02T07:40:00.001-07:00

Looks like the month-end and quarter-end rally was a bit overhyped and the tone of the market has changed. There doesn't seem to be much positive economic sentiment out there.

I remain long, but watching positions closely. Maybe the market makes a stand at the 50dma and this is just a pullback.

I think it does appear as if the economy is weakening, though. On the car sales numbers, it is obvious that the cash for clunkers program had a short term effect that accelerated sales, now the numbers will be bad for a while.

•••

Phew. Friday. Time flies when you're drowning in work. Nobody at my job is even taking lunch breaks these days.

Exactly the Opposite Wednesday

2009-09-30T07:56:00.001-07:00

The market is doing exactly the opposite of what I thought it would be doing. Here's why:

The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index fell to 46.1 in September rather than rising to the 52 that economists expected.

Maybe this is where the double-dippers start high-giving each other.

Still have paydays and 401k adds this week.

Giving Back a Little

2009-09-29T21:07:00.001-07:00

The market gave some back today as consumer confidence dipped. Pardon me, but I think consumer confidence is a poor forward-looking indicator. Consumers are dealing in the now, often times with problems of the past. But, who cares what I think? The market seemed to turn around as the number was released.

I still think with month-end and quarter-end, the bias should be to the upside this week.

•••

My coworker has lost 12 pounds in 21 days on a low-fat, vegan diet. I noticed she dropped a few, but good for her. And she feels great and is excited about it all. The amazing thing is that her story has energized some others to do the same.

Already the middle of the week! I am so busy at work that I don't even have time for a web break or much time for lunch. Next on the agenda this week are job interviews for 3 software developers. So maybe those who we hire will feel more upbeat about the economy in the next consumer confidence survey!

Megan Fox pictured. Thought the Saturday Night Live last week was poor, but she looked great!

End of Quarter Ramp

2009-09-28T19:49:00.001-07:00

The market shot out the gates today. We have month-end strength and quarter-end ramp in effect as the race to be in the winners begins. Seemingly, anyways. It makes more sense than being excited about Iran' s nuclear program.

When it happens it seems obvious. Everyone wants to print those winning stocks in the quarterly literature.

I remain invested. No reason to sell, yet

***

Iran's nuclear program presents a problem. My thought is that they are trying to enrich uranium for bombs and that the world will not be a safer place when they have nukes. And when they can supply nukes to terrorists.

My new boss likes to have status meetings at lunch time. What? That's cruel and unusual punishment.

Fantasy football driving me nuts. Injuries!

Chad Pennington out for the season and Chad Henne to take over. I didn't have much hope for the Dolphins. Nice to watch Henne and see if he can play the game.

Friday at the Clothes

2009-09-25T13:47:00.001-07:00

The market seems stuck in selling. Nothing dramatic, but the tone has changed where folks are more interested in selling and taking their gains compared to risking money for more upside. We’re also in the lull after options expiration week. Next week we begin the march towards the end of the month and quarter, so it will be interesting to see if the buyers step in at lower prices to pad their quarter-end portfolios with the names of winners. I remain long, and will not sell ahead of next week.

***

Watching the fantasy football health report. I hate how many coaches are hiding player statuses and how too many players are game-day decisions. It used to be more open. One great example this year was opening weekend and how Arizona’s Boldin was Questionable while Breaston was probable. Boldin played, Breaston sat.

Market Slides Again

2009-09-24T13:20:00.000-07:00

If I had to guess, I'd say the market is trying to put in its September-October slide. Everything seems to be set up for it.

Reading around here at lunch, and it looks like there is lots of talk about the US dollar. Easy to understand, because we (the US) are spending so much money that we don't have, it's hard to see any turnaround. Yes, it had a big bounce today but that's in a very impressive downtrend.

Remaining 100% long stocks, keeping an eye on stuff but not in panic mode.

***

My home office is in disarray and torn apart. Bringing in some new furniture this week, a new LCD TV, and a new PC next month (Yo! Windows 7!).

Maybe I'll try one of those energy efficient LED TVs. Something that wouldn't contribute to the heat in the office. Although I'll need the heat the coming months! Hmm...

I've been in cleaning mode this week, throwing away stuff, shredding stuff, and trying to get ready for the New Look. Can't wait.

Blogging activity will (should) return to normal as this new work project I'm on settles in and the home activities calm down. I miss posting the cheerleader pictures and random stories from around the web. Just haven't had much time to surf around!!!

Another Not So Bad Day

2009-09-21T17:15:00.000-07:00

Another day where you would think the bears could take the market down. But they didn't. After an early scare, I thought that this was the day the bears are going to get us. I was watching that last hour, but it just wasn't bad.

Maybe the scary thing is that I'm starting to feel like the market may never go down again.

***

In one of my fantasy football leagues I'm stuck with the ugly need that the Dolphins Ronnie Brown have a big offensive night. Lord help me.

UPDATE 9:25pm: Thank you, Lord!

And Michael Irvin on Dancing with the Stars? Yikes. No fantasy points for that.

Cage Dancing Sunday Night!

2009-09-20T20:10:00.000-07:00

Cage dancing at the new Dallas Cowboy's football stadium?

Heading into post-options expiration week in September, it looks as if the stars are aligned for the most anticipated pullback since, well, the previous most anticipated pullback (after Labor Day weekend). It makes sense to me, but I'm still long until the market gives me a real reason to do something different.

***

Man, another great weekend for football. I spent 2 days in a casino (again).

Romo looks bad. Last week I benched him in fantasy football for Matt Ryan. Today I sit Ryan and start Romo. Good grief.

Another Rally Day

2009-09-16T23:13:00.000-07:00

Another strong day in the market. I remain 100% long, even though the bear argument of a pullback, correction, or double-dip recession makes more sense than anything coming from the bulls. Maybe that is what makes a "wall of worry" and why the market keeps going up. Yes, the market is pricing in something better ahead, I guess. Either that, or we're creating another bubble. Just hope I can figure out when this one is going to burst before the popping sound.

Remaining 100% long until there's a reason not to.

***

Just a quick entry today. I have a new job within the Fun Factory that is really kicking my butt right now, working with new folks and learning who the players are. Then there's the technology, too. Having fun along the way, of course.

If the economy is recovering, I think it will be good news for the Democrats in 2010 and 2012. I think the ACORN thing will blow over. Most folks have a short-term memory.

Tuesday Randomosity

2009-09-15T09:50:00.000-07:00

Tom Brady made Suzy Kolber work for the post-game comment!
Ben Bernanke says recession is "very likely over." Bernanke said the economy likely is growing now, but it won't be sufficient to prevent the unemployment rate, now at a 26-year high of 9.7 percent, from rising. Hey, maybe you won't keep your job, but it's good to know things are better.
Say, was it the real Ben Bernanke or identity-theft Ben Bernanke?
"Male, pale, and stale" is out for Calpers. Now CalPERS officials cite studies, including one of their own, that conclude companies with women and minorities on their boards generally produce more value for investors than companies run by boards of directors that are virtually all white males. White men are nothin' but trouble.
What I want to know, is what is the mission of Calpers? Is it political activism or producing returns to provide for the retirements of their members? Lets check! Our mission is to advance the financial and health security for all who participate in the System. We will fulfill this mission by creating and maintaining an environment that produces responsiveness to all those we serve. And white men suck.
Average health care costs jump 5% for families. Despite a drop in inflation, the annual cost of employer-sponsored family health insurance coverage has risen 5% this year to $13,375. But lets also add Employers picked up the lion's share of that tab. Companies paid an average of $9,860, while their workers picked up the other $3,515.
I think it's important to add in what the employer is paying, because folks believe their not getting raises while this shows that employers are indeed spending more on employees.
Hey, it's Tuesday. The day after quite a football weekend.

Misconduct Monday

2009-09-14T21:55:00.001-07:00

Yeah, you get fired but at least you had some nice parties.

Hello, Monday

2009-09-14T16:04:00.000-07:00

Market had yet another chance to sell off, but didn't. We had the whole trade war with China plus Obama warning Wall Street about excesses. The market started out in the hole, but climbed up the rest of the day.

Do I feel skittish and does the bear case make sense? Of course it does. Remaining long and wondering when the rally will stall out.

***

Was in Reno all weekend long betting on football. Wow, some great games.

I always feel disconnected from the news and current events after a weekend away.

Market Looks Good

2009-09-10T23:09:00.001-07:00

Quick entry to note that the market looks good. No reason to fight it, despite the historical worry about crashes in September-October. I remain 100% long as the market moves up and internals look good.

***

Heading to Reno this weekend to bet on sports and enjoy the opening NFL weekend.

Chris Collinsworth... I think he was okay tonight. It may be awhile before he's worthy of Frank Caliendo impression.

I think Apple's conference was a little disappointing. Just iPod stuff. Nothing that makes me want to spend money. So, meh.

I am looking forward to buying a new PC and new Microsoft operating system Windows 7 this Fall. I may not rush out on October 22nd to buy it, but within a month after the initial adopters take the early bird hit (in tech issues, etc).

The Tuesday After

2009-09-08T14:30:00.000-07:00

Well, the Friday-Tuesday Labor Day rally thing worked out. I know I said Monday, but we were all at barbeques yesterday, right?

I think gold is the fun one to watch here as it tries to close above $1000. It was mighty close today, rally above and then closing below. It almost seems as if $1000 is a psychological barrier. You have to wonder if it takes off when it breaks through that. I suppose *everyone* is saying that though, right?

You probably know the arguments for rising gold and commodities, right? The dollar is going down, interest rates are low, America is deficit spending, and President Obama asked Congress to raise the debt ceiling. There are no plans in sight to curtail deficit spending.

Another play would be copper, ETF is JJC. But it's up over 100% this year already. Some more diversified plays here.

Same for oil, which has rallied. I think as money is fast and loose in a recovering economy, oil demand will increase.

No, I don't own any gold, copper, or oil at this time. I guess I'll just sit by and let other people make all the money on those trades.

***

You know, I really wasn't at a barbeque yesterday. I ended up watching a DVD, "Passengers." It was a little slow but I kind of liked it in retrospect.

Already watching NFL injury reports, and the season hasn't begun! Darn that fantasy football! One more draft, tomorrow night. That will make THREE. Good grief.