TheMoneyGoRound by Muckdog

#221: Quick Thoughts

2013-06-12T18:51:00.001-07:00

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Status Quo for Me

2013-06-10T21:58:00.001-07:00

On a day where a lot of eyes were watching $AAPL WWDC, The market had a calm day for a change. Apple didn't announce much and sold off a little.

I'm still sitting on my hands. Not chasing stocks up here and believe that a correction is coming. I suppose the argument could be made that last weeks retest (again) of the 50dma on the SP500 was the correction. Seems like the market doesn't want to sell off more than that. Meanwhile, interest rates are sneaking up but still pretty low.

Days like today almost seem calming and relaxing, setting up whatever is next.

Another 50dma Bounce

2013-06-06T22:15:00.001-07:00

Darn. Another market bounce off the 50dma. Obvious, right? Should have played it. But sometimes when we all see it, that's when it stops working. And this was the third bounce in the uptrend.

Doesn't matter. Jobs report is what we will all be watching tomorrow. Will it be seen as good news or bad news?

Some folks seem to be hoping for a middle of the road number. But everything has been so mediocre in this recovery. Wouldn't it REALLY be better if we were creating more jobs?

June Swoon

2013-06-05T08:26:00.001-07:00

Sell in June... Market selling continues. Many folks were predicting another retest or slight new highs on the SP500 before the Summer selling began. Still could happen.

But think of all the 2013 profits there are to protect out there. The market has had a great start to the year - heck, for a full year it would be a great return.

Anyway, I'm still in cash and being patient. Not that I won't try to play a bounce should things get extreme. But so far I've been sitting on my hands.
***

See the start Dodgers rookie Yasiel Puig is off to in his first two games?

Bodega Bay Randomosity!

2013-06-02T19:13:00.001-07:00

* Another stock reversal on Friday. I think investors have a lot of profits to protect.

* I'm in cash still and being patient. I believe there will be a summer correction and that it probably got underway a week ago Wednesday on the key reversal day.

* Investors chasing yields in utilities, reits, and dividend payers have taken the hit with rising rates. Could be a big buying opportunity in some of these down the road.

* Spent the weekend in Bodega Bay. Nice! Cool! Breezy! I much prefer the SoCal beaches, but these are very pretty.

* Game 7 between Pacers and Heat...

* Dodgers - yuck.

Sell in June?

2013-05-29T08:52:00.001-07:00

Looks like investors finally found a reason to worry! Stocks selling due to better economic numbers and the fear that the Fed will end QE soon.

I'm still in cash. My thought remains that the market is due for a correction and since this has been a historic move up, the correction could be a bit ugly. Much like we saw in the late 90s summers.

It felt like the market cracked last week on the reversal day, huh? And now interest rates moving up and breaking out.

Dividend payers really getting smoked.

#220: We Must be Close to Market Correction - Right?

2013-05-21T19:48:00.001-07:00

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Monday Night Randomosity

2013-05-20T20:15:00.001-07:00

The stock market paused a bit today. Tomorrow is “Terrific Tuesday,” as every Tuesday has been an up day in 2013. Another? Isn’t that getting obvious?
Getting the blame as the reason du jour for the stalling action in the markets is “correction worries.” Well, folks have been worried about that for quite a while, haven’t they?
Tornado rips through Oklahoma. Horrible. Donate to the Red Cross if you can.
Apple’s Tim Cook to push Congress for tax reform. Look, Congress, at least the House, doesn’t have a problem reducing corporate tax rates. But the Senate and the President have no interest in cutting corporate tax rates. Those folks think the rates should be higher!
Besides, if this is about Apple paying accountants to find ways to reduce the company’s tax burden, more power to them. It’s not cheating if you follow the rules! Even as Apple became the nation's most profitable technology company, it avoided billions in taxes in the United States and around the world through a web of subsidiaries so complex it spanned continents…
The Dodgers bullpen lost every game in the Atlanta series. Well done, fellas.
Kershaw (not pictured) tonight for the Dodgers. Greinke (also not pictured) tomorrow. That’s got to be pretty brutal for the Miami Marlins. (Until the bullpen comes in…)
How about a Jim Rogers video? Jim Rogers, the legendary investor and Chairman of Rogers Holdings, says the commodities bull market continues. He calls the latest slump in prices a correction. “I still don’t see massive new supply coming into the market which will keep prices down,” he tells The Daily Ticker.
I saw Jimmy on Tom Sullivan’s weekend show on the Fox Business Network. I agree with him.
Thousands of French Households taxed 100% or more. Nice. There’s an incentive to wake up to the alarm clock each and every morning, right? It was due to a one-off levy, but still.

Another New Market High Randomosity

2013-05-15T22:08:00.001-07:00

Yes, it is starting to sound like a broken record: Another day, another new market high. Even with the news that Factory output dropped in April and manufacturing activity in New York state contracted this month, a sign that slowing global demand is weighing on the economy. Hey, the good news is that this means the Fed can keep QE-infinity going!
Still in cash. LOL. HAHAHA. “What a maroon!”
Remember when $CSCO used to move the market? Think they still can on their profit beat? Cisco shares rose about 8 percent after Chief Executive John Chambers said the company was seeing some good signs in the United States and that other parts of the world are "encouraging." Seems like only yesterday that Chambers moved markets.
That’s Chambers, not Cramer.
Patience. Patience. Patience.
Watching bottom of the 8th with Dodgers up over Nationals 2-1. Could use an insurance run or two, Blue Team. Greinke is out and it’s up to the Dodgers bullpen. Gird. Your. Loins.
It is options expiration week, so one thought is NO WAY THEY CAN PUSH THIS THING DOWN.
By the way, $AAPL was down today. 3.4%. And the market was up. Yeah. Really.
I had dinner at the Olive Garden tonight. Is that place always packed or what?
Sometimes I think about moving out of CA, then I read: At least three killed, up to 100 injured by Texas Tornado.
Sacramento Kings staying in Sacramento. Of course, now David Stern is planning on meeting with the Maloofs to try and convince them to sell the team to the Sacramento group of investors. The Maloofs don’t have to sell – that’d throw a wrench into Sacramento’s new downtown arena plans.

Monday Randomosity and Kim Kardashian in Blue

2013-05-13T22:10:00.001-07:00

We all know a stock market correction is coming. We are sure of it. But… From where?
I’m still in cash. Being patient. My thought is that after a big run like this, the eventual pullback is a little more severe than a 3% dip to the 50dma. Just thinking out loud.
But lets not let that dampen economic enthusiasm. Bernard Baumohl, the chief economist of The Economic Outlook Group, believes the U.S. “may be on the precipice of faster growth.” And consumers are the main reason… Party on, Garth!
On the other hand, Lack of growth in the Dow reaches dire stage. …the companies that comprise the index are solid companies that are likely to withstand major economic catastrophe, but at a certain point, valuation must come into play. In this specific instance, it is a concern.
So, I do like to wax political from time to time, and there are lots of things in the news these days. IRS targeting conservative organizations? Really? Add some Benghazi to the mix. I don’t think this stuff is going away.
By the way. Retail sales up in April. (Yes, a lot of that WAS me). Retail sales unexpectedly rose in April, reflecting broad-based gains that may ease concerns consumers are holding back. This is good news. I think that consumer activity lags the economic recovery a bit. It is nice to see folks out spending and feeling better about their situations.
McDonald’s is eliminating the Angus Burger, but adding THREE NEW QUARTER POUNDERS! The three new flavors, which were tested for nine months in Sacramento, Calif., and Toledo, Ohio, are Deluxe, Habanero Ranch, and Bacon and Cheese. The new varieties will carry a different bun containing more whole grains, while the original Quarter Pounder will keep its traditional bun. How’d I miss this happening under my own nose here in Sac?
France mulls smartphone tax to fund culture. Well, that doesn’t seem so smart to me. The notorious French taxman could soon have something else to train his sights on after a government report on Monday suggested taxing smartphone and tablet producers like Apple and Amazon, in order to bolster funding for cultural products.
Dodgers losing 6-2 at home to the Washington Nationals as I type. Yikes. Maybe Kim Kardashian should take the mound…

#219: Market Thoights

2013-05-12T15:45:00.001-07:00

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Market Up 5 Days in a Row!

2013-05-08T22:42:00.001-07:00

The market melt up continues, now up 5 days in a row. Are there any bears still there? I’m still in cash and not chasing this, and expecting a correction. That’s been elusive so far. It is tempting to try and day trade to “catch up,” but that would probably be ringing the bell at the top of the market.

Murphy’s Law.

#218: Stock Market Highs and Other Stuff

2013-05-08T15:25:00.001-07:00

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15,000 Party Hats!

2013-05-07T22:33:00.001-07:00

All you need to know: Dow ends above 15,000 as “investors rushed to join the party.”

At some point, we know how this kind of thing ends. But… from what point?

#217: Another Stock Market High

2013-05-07T15:19:00.001-07:00

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Tuesday Randomosity

2013-04-30T22:05:00.001-07:00

Yahoo – $YHOO: CEO Marissa Mayer was paid $36.6 million in 2012. Seems like a bunch. Remember when Yahoo was the destination site and home page. The site is still great for email and fantasy sports. But that’s a lot of money for a bunch of free services. They must make it up in volume.
Speaking of big salaries, don’t you think Dwight Howard will get a big pay day when he signs with [insert team name here] next season? "I'm going to take my time, get away from the game, my phones and everything and just clear my head," Howard said Tuesday in an end-of-season interview at the team's practice facility. "I'll do what's going to be best for myself, what's going to make me happy. I can't control who likes me, who dislikes me, but I have the right to be happy."
Dollar pressured before the Fed makes its policy decision. Hmm… Well, when you think about the slower-than-expected GDP last week, unemployment remaining high, and companies beating earnings not because of revenue but because of cost cutting, maybe easy money continues. But last week didn’t the Fed talk about another stress test for a rising interest rate scenario?
Sell in may this year? Think twice! Using data going back to 1928, it turns out the best six month period in the first year following a presidential election is March through August, with an average 8.73% return, with the second best being April through September with a 5.95% average return. Of course, the market is right at a double-top, with slightly new highs.
An update on the secular bear market from Sy Harding Timely! …here we are with the S&P 500 back to its previous peaks. Its peak in 2007 exceeded its peak in 2000 by a fraction. And its peak in 2013 is now exceeding its peak of 2007 by a fraction.
Homeownership rate lowest since 1995. I guess that means renting is popular right now, which means that investment properties should be doing well.
Will the Sacramento Kings move to Seattle? Yesterday, it seemed the answer was no. Today, the Seattle investor says it isn’t over yet.

#216: Market Thoughts - Sell in May?

2013-04-30T17:02:00.001-07:00

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Market Thoughts

2013-04-29T21:40:00.001-07:00

The stock market cruises to new highs as April winds down. Mediocre economic news probably means the Fed keeps easy money going. The rest of the world looks like they want to print money too. Japan is. The ECB meets soon and they may print money as the EU economies are also very weak.

The Fed meets later this week...

I'm still in cash. Missed the run up!

Sell in May? Will that work this year?
***
Things have been light with the blog and audioboos. Dealing with personal and join stuff. Weighing me down.

Apple profit slips 18%

2013-04-23T22:10:00.001-07:00

The biggest news about the Apple $AAPL earnings release was that they lowered guidance. Yes, they'll still sell a boat load of iPhones and iPads. But there's some high quality competition out there.

For the record, I have an iPhone 5 now, but my next phone may be one of the Samsung bigger-screen phones.

Just sayin'...

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Apple profit slips 18%, but investors cheer dividend increase
CNN MONEY | APRIL 23, 2013
http://pulse.me/s/kWIHw

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How Obama's tax hikes would hit the rich and middle class

2013-04-23T22:08:00.001-07:00

We all know President Obama wants to raise taxes. On you. Well, those of you who work for a living anyway.

I don't think a country can tax its way to prosperity.

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How Obama's tax hikes would hit the rich and middle class
CNN MONEY | APRIL 23, 2013
http://pulse.me/s/kWKNv

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China manufacturing expansion slows

2013-04-22T21:33:00.001-07:00

Hey, we knew China was slowing down, right? Maybe they need to recalculate how the compute their GDP.

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China manufacturing expansion slows
CNN MONEY | APRIL 22, 2013
http://pulse.me/s/kU7qR

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Netflix Surges!

2013-04-22T21:32:00.001-07:00

I've never owned shares of Netflix, $NFLX. In some of the Audioboos over the years I went over why I don't own shares "for the long term." But what a comeback by the DVD and streaming service, signing up over 2m subscribers. The stock is surging about 26% after the news today.

This is a Peter Lynch "buy what you know" kind of stock for me as I stream movies all week long via the Roku box. But I didn't buy it. (LOL.)

We shall see what happens going forward as there are more and more competitors in the streaming business. But nice job by the company!

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Netflix Erases Doubts With Signup Gain Propelling Shares
BLOOMBERG NEWS | APRIL 22, 2013
http://pulse.me/s/kVvHl

Netflix Inc. (SPX), vanquishing Wall Street skepticism about its growth prospects, is poised to become the best-performing stock in the Standard & Po... Read more

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Stock Market at Interesting Place

2013-04-18T18:57:00.001-07:00

The SP500 is right at the 50dma. If the market bounces and goes up from here, then one could say this pullback was no big deal as the market is just trending up. I think it would be the third trip down to the 50dma since December. No big deal, right?
The market could also be moving up to form a right shoulder on a potential head and shoulders chart pattern. Could be. The timing would be interesting, as the pattern would probably play out in April and then hit the Sell in May seasonal pattern. Just thinking out loud.
The market could also be breaking down, and this is just a pause at the 50dma before some catalyst sends the index convincingly lower. Heck, the up days are on low volume and the down days are on high volume. The stocks that are rallying are defensive stocks.
Anyway... I'm still in cash. I was watching the 1540 level on the SP500 and almost bought at the close as the market closed just above it. The thought being that if the number holds, then we're right at a place where the market could bounce and continue the uptrend. If not, then I just sell it and take a small loss.
But, I didn't. Still in cash.
Earnings after the bell were mixed. IBM could be a heavy weight on the Dow tomorrow. But other names like Microsoft, Google, and Chipotle seemed to have done better.

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#215: Stocks Bounce; More on Boston

2013-04-16T22:00:00.001-07:00

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#214: Explosions Rock Boston; Stocks and Gold Fall

2013-04-15T16:47:00.001-07:00

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