TheMoneyGoRound by Muckdog

#139: News of the day, Romney or Gingrich? Obama vs. Brewer, Retirement in the US

2012-01-27T12:46:00.001-08:00

#139: News of the day, Romney or Gingrich? Obama vs. Brewer, Retirement in the US (mp3)

Nintendo Loses $575 Million!

2012-01-26T23:42:00.000-08:00

Whoa! Nintendo lost $575 million bucks! Remember when it was hard to find the Nintendo Wii? Or when the handheld Nintendo DS was the handheld game to have. That was years ago, believe it or not. In the meantime, the gaming system has been under pressure by the more powerful Microsoft XBOX 360 and Sony PS3, while the handheld is losing ground to the iPhone and Android phones - tablets, too.

Nintendo is promising Wii U in the Fall, while Microsoft is planning the next generation of the XBOX in 2013.

$575 million dollars . Yikes.

posted from Bloggeroid

The End of DSL?

2012-01-26T23:14:00.000-08:00

I read that ATT lost well over 600K DSL subscribers in the 4th quarter of 2011. Now, in 2011 I switched from ATT DSL to ATT U-verse. But it seems that not all of the folks leaving DSL went to U-verse. ATT actually lost customers to cable internet.

People are craving bandwidth for streaming movies, playing games, and surfing the web. All our iPads and Androids consume bandwidth to download music and web content. DSL is just too slow.

I was surprised that more folks weren't signing up for U-verse. But not all homes have fiber to the house, and that sends them to the cable companies to get the bandwidth they need.

posted from Bloggeroid

Quick Market Thoughts

2012-01-26T22:35:00.001-08:00

The stock market had been strong this week, but showed a little weakness today. There are lots of news stories floating by. Apple's earnings were amazing. Netflix is the comeback kid. But there have also been a few misses. Europe and Greece and such are still there, but largely ignored this week. The Fed says they're going to keep interest rates low half-way through the 2nd Obama term, or 2014. The President is promising free student loans and cheap refinancing for all.

The stock market looks tired to me. I think we're due for a pullback The Black Box has re-iterated a sell signal. If I was scaling out of stocks, I'd have three sell points at this point

I have reduced my long positions by about 20%, which leaves me - tada! lets do the math together - about 80% long. But I could sell more at any point. Or go back long. Or put the cash on a super bowl bet.

Hmmm.... Does everyone love the New York Giants and the points? Might lean the other way.
***

Still struggling through this stupid cold. Cough. Walking the dog but haven't felt up to a podcast or audioboo.

Obama’s State of the Union: Tax, Tax, Tax!

2012-01-24T21:03:00.001-08:00

All I heard in President Obama’s State of the Union was “raise taxes” and blah, blah, blah.

You?

Seriously! It sounds noble and altruistic to go after those evil people who make money. But it’s THEIR money. They worked hard. They earned it. They’re even following the current tax laws in the tax code, and paying what they owe to the government. If they feel under taxed and want to contribute additional money to the Treasury, this rich folks are free to write a check! I’m looking at you, Warren Buffett.

When you add up the federal tax rate, the state tax rate, the local tax rate (in some cities), the payroll tax (Social Security and Medicare – and double it for the self-employed), many of The Rich are already paying over 50% in taxes.

Over 50% in taxes. That’s not enough?

I didn’t even include sales taxes, and everything else from taxes to fees on our homes, utility bills, cell phone bills, etc…

We’re all taxed enough, Mr. President.

Apple Surges on Earnings! It’s Raining Money!

2012-01-24T16:41:00.001-08:00

$AAPL – Apple is known for sandbagging their estimates and killing on the numbers. But Chinese fighting for iPhone 4s phones can’t be wrong. Everyone wants an iPhone.

No exceptions.

Apple has the formula of delivering the must-have phone of the year once a year, and is now rolling the phones out world-wide.

It’s raining money.

Terrell Owens is Broke!

2012-01-22T12:54:00.001-08:00

Terrell Owens is broke! $44,600 a month in child support can be tough financially.

The bottom line is that he made poor investment decisions along the way. The career of an athlete is far shorter than those of us with desk jobs. While they make a lot of money in the short term, it is difficult to recover from bad decisions.

Ouch.

Newt Gingrich Wins South Carolina Primary

2012-01-21T16:29:00.000-08:00

Is Newt Gingrich the new Comeback Kid? Newt surges in the polls this past week to overcome Mitt Romney in South Carolina. This is a pretty big win and it would seem as if the momentum is with Gingrich. Romney seems to be fading. The big surprise is how Gingrich is faring amongst the independents. We have been told that Mitt was the only one who could beat Obama, but it looks as if the independents actually went for Newt.

One thing for sure is that I think Gingrich is a better debater, and the head-to-head meetings with Obama would be more entertaining than would a Romney-Obama debate.

On to Florida...
posted from Bloggeroid

#138: Stocks, Black Box, South Carolina Primary

2012-01-21T16:04:00.001-08:00

#138: Stocks, Black Box, South Carolina Primary (mp3)

It's All Greek to Me!

2012-01-21T13:34:00.000-08:00

The talks in Greece over new debt have broken down. This is the deal where existing bond holders get shafted for about 50% and get issued new bonds. One of the stumbling blocks is over the interest rates of the new debt. The IMF and Germany are looking for rates lower than 4%, to help Greece manage their interest payments.

Talks broke down, but the article says folks are available by phone. What does that mean? Don't call me, I'll call you? Can I get your phone number, baby?

Why not just send text messages back and forth? That's what all the kids are doing these days! Er, and probably adults, too.

posted from Bloggeroid

Weak Treasuries!

2012-01-21T11:33:00.000-08:00

Did you read that Treasuries are off to their worst start since 2003?

And it was just early last week that the 30-year rate fell below 4%! I bet that will get harder and harder to find as the calendar moves along.

The bottom line is that world economies continue to grow. China's GDP was huge. The US continues to add jobs as the employment numbers improve. The fly in the ointment continue to be Europe. Greece is in the headlines today, as worries about their new debt could impact markets on Monday.

The US stock market seems to be on a bit of a rally and could be overbought and due for a correction. But that is awfully difficult to predict. Right now, stocks are rallying and ignoring bad news. For example, the Google miss on Thursday could have been a catalyst for a market disaster. While Friday was weak with the Dow leading thanks to IBM and Microsoft, the Nasdaq was down.

As for Treasuries, I think everyone can see the elephant in the room - rates are going to find it easier to move higher than go lower.

posted from Bloggeroid

Are Investors Too Complacent?

2012-01-20T22:56:00.001-08:00

Tesla Motors Exec Departs - Shares Plunge

2012-01-20T22:15:00.001-08:00

$TSLA: Tesla Motors executive departs - but, did he depart in an electric car?

My guess? Probably not.
Peter Rawlinson, Tesla's vice president and chief engineer, "has decided to step away to tend to personal matters in the UK."
There you go. My thought is that electric cars are a tough sell at this point. Tesla stock plunged about 20%.

posted from Bloggeroid

Is the US in a Recession?

2012-01-20T21:54:00.000-08:00

I was reading that Gary Shilling says the US is in a recession in the first quarter of 2012. He believes that there is a global recession right now, and that it started in Europe and is heading here.

My thoughts are that there have been lots of folks predicting gloom and doom for the last couple of years. Especially since Europe has been dealing with debt and as the US struggles with sluggish growth.

In the US, we are starting to see better economic numbers. We're now seeing the jobs numbers pick up, too. Meanwhile, inflation indicators remain low and allow the Fed to continue to keep rates low. One of the biggest booms for the US economy going forward is the ability for homeowners to lock in historically low interest rates. Money not sent to the banks in mortgage payments is money in folks' pockets.

posted from Bloggeroid

60% of South Carolina GOP Voters Retired

2012-01-19T21:30:00.001-08:00

In South Carolina, 60% of the GOP registered voters are retired. Over the last decade, many retirees have moved to SC to take advantage of the warmer weather. (Maybe lower taxes, too?)

It's an interesting demographic in that these folks probably are conservative both fiscally and socially, but probably don't want the government touching their Social Security.

From the Los Angeles Times. By the way, that's an excellent app for the iPad.

Market Trend Up Continues

2012-01-19T18:43:00.001-08:00

The market rally continues with good jobs data and stronger than expected earnings numbers. Apple also announced iBooks for text books.

I'm still long despite the sell signal from the Black Box last Friday. No reason to fight the trend.
***

I have a cold. So that's why no Audioboos / Podcasts this week. My voice is crap and it hurts to talk.

posted from Bloggeroid

A Kodak Moment

2012-01-18T22:00:00.001-08:00

Kodak files for bankruptcy. Everyone say “Cheese!”

Goldman Sachs Earnings

2012-01-18T17:39:00.001-08:00

Woohoo! $GS Goldman Sachs earnings less dreary than expected! If that isn’t reason to drive the Nasdaq higher, what is? The Nasdaq led the market today, with an improving sentiment in housing combined with the $GS earnings. “We started off on a positive footing because certain financial earnings weren’t as bad as investors had feared, but most of the uptick came from home-builders’ confidence reaching a level not seen since 2007. Now we have two areas, jobs and housing, which are critical foundations, and both are seeing signs of improvement.” - Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank in Chicago.

The continuing theme of slow growth, uh, continues. There really was no reason to fear a recession. It appears as if there were a lot of folks leaning the wrong way. We are seeing a pick up in most all of the economic data, but not at a rate that is going to make the Fed jump in and kill it.

Meanwhile, the Black Box sell signal has a bit of egg on its face so far. Which is why I don’t follow it as a mechanical system. Still, it usually isn’t wrong – and when it is wrong, it’s not by much. It is still at a point where a whoosh down would create a second sell signal. It’s not unprecedented to see consecutive sell or buy signals within a few percent of each other, as the market reaches overbought or oversold levels.

Lame Rumor - Why Would Samsung want to buy Research in Motion?

2012-01-17T22:03:00.001-08:00

I was reading the headlines and saw this article asking why Samsung would want to buy Research in Motion. Good grief, it sounds like a bad idea to me. The Blackberry craze is oh-so-2004 headline news. The Research in Motion tablet, whatever that thing was called, flopped. I get it. That's a rumor that makes no sense whatsoever!

January Expiration Week

2012-01-17T21:35:00.001-08:00

I was paging through the Stock Trader's Almanac 2012 this evening and looking at the historical trend for options expiration week in January. It hasn't been pretty.

While the first trading day of the week tends to be positive, the week as a whole tends to be a bit ugly. Especially the last two trading days of the week.Maybe that Black Box sell signal will work out after all. We shall see.

***

The picture is from the Android CNBC app. Nice, huh?

posted from Bloggeroid

The Black Box Sell Signal (Follow Up)

2012-01-17T18:22:00.001-08:00

So, the Black Box gave a sell signal on the $QQQ Friday. The market gapped up today, pulled back, and rallied into the close. I didn’t think it was a strong day. That being said, the market is up the day after the Black Box gave a sell signal. That doesn’t happen very often.

But, it does happen. Of course it does.

I am still 100% long. With sort of a mental stop. No reason to sell if the market keeps moving higher.

Black Box Sell Signal (Update)

2012-01-16T17:33:00.001-08:00

This is the Black Box sell signal on the $QQQ. Just to get the picture up.

I might sell a bit tomorrow, but I’m reminded of a similar move in January, 2011! Of course, that did work out eventually, but not after a move higher.

The Polaroid Android Camera

2012-01-16T13:13:00.001-08:00

Did you hear about the new Polaroid Android camera announced at CES 2012? It's a point and shoot camera that runs the Android operating system, and allows sharing photos with social media websites - you know the names.

Hmm...

But don't we already have Android, or iOS, devices that come with a point-and-shoot camera and allow uploading to social media sites? Is there a compelling reason to buy the Polaroid?

posted from Bloggeroid

The $6 Billion Man - er, $0 Billion!

2012-01-16T12:08:00.001-08:00

Have you read about Ireland's Sean Quinn (not pictured) ? He was worth about $6B (in US dollars) and is now filing for bankruptcy. He may not be able to resume business activities for 12 years!

Whenever I see a story like this, I wonder what is really happening? We tend to raise eyebrows and wonder if the $6B was earned legitimately, right? Then even if the guy goes broke, does anyone have a doubt that he will somehow come into money again down the road?

posted from Bloggeroid

MLKjr Randomosity!

2012-01-16T11:26:00.001-08:00

Well, I had a randomosity post all created but then the Android tablet crashed and took my post with it. Bottom line, is that I linked to a story about the European index actually closing up today despite the debt downgrade from last week. Really? Yeah really.

I also mentioned that oil prices were back on the rise due to the Nigerian crisis. The US gets about 8% of our oil from there. You think it would be a good idea to get some more oil from Canada via the Keystone pipeline. But heck, taking more risk is more fun. Let's continue to import oil from unstable nations instead! By the way, gasoline prices continue to climb. Not a big deal for those of you who don't drive cars I suppose!

I linked to an article about states trying to raise taxes on millionaires. While that grabs headlines, what is really happening in CA is that Governor Jerry Brown is also trying to raise the state sales tax. You tell me if that's a tax only millionaires pay. I don't think so.

Finally, I mentioned the black box sell signal and my lack of a decision on what to do so far. I'm thinking about booking some gains.

Anyway. On with the long weekend.

posted from Bloggeroid