Trading to Win

Forget DOW

noreply@blogger.com (DavidDT) — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 21:30:00 PST

Feeling a little disappointed tonight (tried to make a video, but ended up losing what is left of my voice again).

At the same time feeling a little lazy, so you will have to fill in blanks in between the charts…

SPX Monthly (have not seen that one for a while!)

wB satisfied MINIMUM requirements (it still NOT FIXED until November’s end – but it is nice to see my prognosis beginning to materialize). At the same time – November is bar 7 of TDSetup sell Monthly of 9 (with possible 9 in January 2010).

SPX Weekly

Nothing much to see here – damn TDSetup Sell has been rolling for 18 weeks now…

but as Osso noticed it makes 9 on bi-weekly – so here is 2 weeks interval chart.

Daily – we’ve got Countdown 13 printed today (it was deferred yesterday)

Something you don’t see often (thou I use it a lot) – 3 days chart

Here w4 of down seq = 1,2,3 of UP – that is a match.

Finally - “hourly” (OK, OK – 73min)

wave structure did not change…yet…

That is it for tonight (and tomorrow morning as well – will just append price projection in the morning, but I suspect they will make as little sense tomorrow as they did today)

But…what about DOW? Forgetaboutit!

Tonight’s musical selection…MONTY…not that…another one…

11/10/2009

Futures approx. BO

Daily Range Projection

Low

High

/ES

1078.25

1105.50

SPX

1082.70

1103.59

/NQ

1747.25

1787

NDX

1755

1780.70

Monday Bull Run

noreply@blogger.com (Keirsten) — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 13:35:00 PST

Well, wasn't that special? That's basically what my thought bubble had goin' on all day today. No gap fill yet on $INDU, but we're verrrry close, and I would have bid it up myself, but my eyes were too crossed to watch the screen this afternoon. Anyhoo.. a few charts that caught my attention late in the day, as they seem to be acting a little stranger than the rest of the tape in relation to the buck. UUP held support by EOD, fwiw. So here goes, and I'll hopefully meet back up with the rest of you later on when we have time to digest what lays in store for tomorrow and beyond. Thanks as always for generously posting your own analysis as these trading days progress, as it keeps us all on the straight and narrow, and is much appreciated!

DDT here…this is what I have to say…

Oh, and else…someone asked me – what with the devilish avatar…

Devilish? Quite opposite… and fits me like a glove

http://salvoblue.homestead.com/wings.html

8:22PM EST DDT here…again…mad as always

I thought today is as good of a day as any to watch this clip – tribute to great American Freedom.

As much as you listen to George – that much, please, watch stupid neurotic looking asshole on the left.

Price and Time

noreply@blogger.com (Keirsten) — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 09:14:00 PST

Nothing to see here really, move along.. they've managed to gap up once again on low volume to avoid critical points of resistance and scare the living daylights out of the shorts yet again. So now we're dealing with just two elements- price and time. The question is which one will be the victor this week? Most of us have certain cycle targets in mind relating to the time factor, so it's not time to get nervous just yet, IMO. Just a pair of charts to share, as we've all posted a jillion charts already and know what we're facing in both directions. If you're getting battle fatigue with this game, don't hesitate to take yourself out and away until you can better focus on your trades, as this has been one rough tape as it moves like a car with a bad transmission.

Daily Range Projections 11/09/2009

noreply@blogger.com (DavidDT) — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 05:12:00 PST

11/09/2009

Futures approx. BO

Daily Range Projection

Low

High

/ES

1059.50

1076.25

SPX

1064.33

1076.47

/NQ

1717.25

1749.75

NDX

1719.82

1743.88

To help you wake up on this slow ridiculous dollar farewell healthcare screw up final turnaround morning…one more shot of tequila and lime please…

Saturday is for Chart Addicts (so are Sundays)

noreply@blogger.com (Keirsten) — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 12:59:00 PST

I hope everyone is enjoying a mellow weekend out there... we sure deserve it! But... in between my own usual weekend antics I thought I'd provide a fresh slate for comments and charts, while we reflect upon the week that was and the possibilities of the week ahead. I charted some extremely simple price points that were hit yesterday on the index ETFs, sans all of the trend lines, etc. and I may have more contributor's charts later on if/when they file in my way. Yes, we closed under the March trend line on SPX and we're still navigating outside of the bearish wedge as of yesterday. *If* price jumps back above that trend line we'll need to navigate well and trade with the flow, as the bounces have indeed been strong since March and the trend remains up. For all we know we'll be rangebound for quite a bit longer, and at that point we could very well see a "stock pickers" market to trade, so ignoring individual trades would be a waste of good opportunities. I still see this weak trend of the RUT as risk aversion, but that still leaves quite a few strong leaders in the Naz and Spoos to trade to the upside. Open minds shall prevail on this tape. So enjoy... relax... and hopefully we can do another Sunday night trade huddle. See you then! ~Keirsten

My Saturday music offering is a Scottish Ballad, thought to be written sometime in the 1600's, and sung by Eva Cassidy. The lyrics remind me of how as traders we spend so much time navigating these wide waters we call a market, while we're also juggling all of the other things we do in life. No easy task on certain days, but we never give up, do we?

Added Chart on 11/07 at 11:20 PM
I couldn't wait to get permission from Osso to add his fractal chart, particularly after I read Daneric's latest epiphany. This is a replication of the 956-869 July Fractal, on the 1101 - current fractal and its implication. Osso has been tracking this fractal for the last few weeks, for the record- I know this because he has probably banged his poor head on his keyboard trying to teach this dizty blonde what he was looking at endless times. Although he wanted me to say this was a joint effort, truly my only part was to play with some graphics, do an overlay of recent candle action over the July fractal, and let his calculations speak for themselves. In other words, he has the brains, I just brought the crayons. ;-) Bravo, Osso.

DDT here

Sunday 4:40PM

2 charts to illustrate Osso’s reasons for comparing Jun/Jul to current action

Friday Mid-Session

noreply@blogger.com (Keirsten) — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 09:13:00 PST

It seems the politburo has announced 10.2% unemployment today, but this map speaks louder than even those sugar-coated numbers they spoon feed to the gullible public. Yes, I trade just like the rest of you, but I cannot, and will not hide my disgust and stay true to myself and those who know me well. Can I bury those thoughts while I trade? You betcha I can because it has to be done to stay profitable, and that's why we're here afterall... to be profitable. But as I was pouring through some charts to share outside of our usual views on the indices, I brought up RTH. Somehow, 10.2% UE continues to keep the RTH plates spinning in an upward spiral. Just food for thought. I've also included a daily and intra-day chart on SPY and what I see. A close below the March trendline is not bullish IMO, as this would be the second weekly close under that very important TL. Finally, USO is clinging to thin ice at the 50 EMA on the daily for those of you trading that sector. How the tape ends today is anyone's guess, and we still have Consumer Credit numbers out at 3:00 PM EST. Those numbers have moved the tape wildly before, so it's something to consider going into the last hour. Good trading into the afternoon, and keep those charts and calls coming fast and furious. ~Keirsten

Speaking Volumes

noreply@blogger.com (DavidDT) — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 04:44:00 PST

There is an old common belief that “volume at the bottom washes off sellers” – that might be true, but just as equally it exhausts buyers and nothing will prevent price from declining further (as much as from reversing and rising). The same true in reverse as applicable to the tops. Anyways, volume has never been a huge part of my analysis and, especially last few years with all HFT, dark pools, mutual funds “pre-set” exchanges – I am just getting irritated trying to make any sense of volume patters.

Why I brought volume up than? Two reasons

First – I’d like to “re-introduce” “DefenderYou” (we know each other for a long long time, through the good and bad times) – when he says something (not about day trades, but about larger/longer picture) – traders better listen – he is representative of “Big Boys Mentality”. Shall DefenderYou decide to “re-introduce” himself to TTW gang as he did at ES – it will be great. (From myself I have to say he is slightly more of a “buy side” trader – do we have some bias here? :) I recall way back we were joking that if DY would just buy FLTW with all the margin – there would be no need to trade ever again. and I was joking that is I just held those puts long enough… Bulls have plans, bears have plans…:)

Secondly, yesterday’s “volume discussion” was about “volume distribution throughout the day” rather than “as as a unit. I’d like to repost one of the yesterday’s charts and add one new.

11/06/2009

Futures approx. BO

Daily Range Projection

Low

High

/ES

1051

1076

SPX

1056.97

1076.32

/NQ

1695

1745.25

NDX

1709.52

1734.51

Pretty Picture For Common Sense Impaired

Needle in Haystack

noreply@blogger.com (Keirsten) — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 17:01:00 PST

As we head into tomorrow morning's Non-farm payroll numbers after a big "up" day, it's time to take a look at potential trading set-ups for tomorrow's session. So many good charts with channels, wedges, counts and more have already been shared by other TTW traders, I'm just going to share a closer look at short-term Fib and backtest possibilities, aka my needle in the haystack.

Many have mentioned the lack of volume today, and of course you can't argue the facts, but we also know the history of this rally has been low volume on moves up, so like the good trading soldiers we are, no excuses, Sir! If anything it was a good signal today that the move in price was pretty bullish based on recent history, "if" we remind ourselves that the lion's share of moves up have occurred on low volume. It's almost a no-brainer, and consider me an empty-head because I went short, covered with a profit, and went short again like an idiot who sticks her hand in the fire. Why am I being hard on myself? Because if I'm not, who will be? I put pieces together last week based on patterns and time cycles for a partial retracement to carry through until at least Friday, but oh no.... I thought I could outsmart myself. Doh! So... tomorrow is another day and that good 'ol dry powder will be my saving grace, and congrats to those of you who traded this long today, very well done! Okay.. chart time, with Fib resistance and backtest possible. Note on TRAN- you'll see overlapping Fibs- one is the recent move, the other is the high from 6/08 to the low of March '09, so this level represents double Fib resistance, and so far it has not surpassed it.

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar: NF Payroll 8:30 AM, Consumer Credit 3:00 PM

Note to self: You can't hurry love, and you can't hurry this tape while
it plays out either...

DDT here.

From D-Wave perspective – nothing changed since yesterday, quite opposite - market continues to work its way up in wB hourly which started on 11/2 (and was identifiable, no matter how “B”ish B will get – it is still “B”. Whipsaws, fakes – it is what B is all about. Repeat after me - ‘B” – pain in the neck to trade, but we are doing our best. May be slightly higher open tomorrow or move up from the open and we’ll resume downside move in hourly C.

73 min	18 min

Daily

The Cisco Kid

noreply@blogger.com (Keirsten) — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 08:34:00 PST

Cisco gave quite the rocket booster on the Qs today, and I don't even hear what the Tee Vee is saying about unemployment and retail numbers. Did they say something about that? ;-) QCOM was the horse I was watching, and it didn't exactly meet my expectations, but it's flying high as well. For a quick look at the top ten in the Qs, here is the link. Also below is a quick look at IYT and XLE for those trading those sectors. P.S. does it ever fail?!!! If I say break time, you know what happens next...

The Hallucinogenic Toreador

noreply@blogger.com (DavidDT) — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 18:13:00 PST

Sometimes we attempt to explain reality by using images and that makes reality even more confusing for some.

I am that unfortunate type, I need to see and when I see I see not what that is and not what I want to see, but really something else.

Am I making myself abundantly clear?

Today’s market action mixed with blog policing sprinkled with annoying headache translated for me into two words:

“Hallucinogenic Toreador”

So, as a result, everything in this post can be fairly described by at least “Hallucinogenic “ part.

No need to reflect on Dali’s work, but you’d agree that the chart below is “Hallucinogenic “ – is not it?

No matter how Hallucinogenic this chart is – it tells a lot (keep in mind that the last change to that chart was made on July 9th – no changes since, not by my hand)

1. TDSequential Countdown Sell completed 2 weeks ago.

2. long term “blue channel” is in play and price action was not even strong enough to touch upper boundary of this channel

3. “White channel” (in place since Jul9th) – failed to contain he price

4. Fib Fan (not that I am a big fan) provided resistance – when that happens it really signifies weak price action.

5. Failed to stay above “50% D-Wave Down w4 weekly” retracement of w3

6. Failed to stay above 88 weeks MA

Not visible on this chart, but RSI failed, even at the highest price point to cross 60 level (so called “Bull Land”)

First “visual support” is 38.2% Fib 07 top-09 bottom, but I think it’ll go right through to prior TD Risk Level (yellow punctured line ) at 980 area.

There was one more failure – it you follow springheel_jack’s charts (and you should) – that diagonal trendline of his that just been retested and failed accidentally is a high level TD Demand Line and it was broken and “qualified” today.

If you have not had enough of “Hallucinogenic” yet – here is a rare video of Michael Olson (I have cleaner record and it is called “Hallucinogenic Toreador”

11/05/2009

Futures approx. BO

Daily Range Projection

Low

High

/ES

1044

1061.50

SPX

1037.90

1053.75

/NQ

1680

1706.50

NDX

1667.77

1691.15

The Weakest Links

noreply@blogger.com (Keirsten) — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 13:15:00 PST

Benny Boy delivered Christmas a little early to some of us today, so thank you Ben... well done! I have no compunction about taking money from this beast, but what is that money really going to be worth? Don't remind me, I'd rather stay in denial, and just trade the weaklings for all they're worth.

I have not had time to pour over the candle patterns or Fibs just yet, but I will comment in the regular section with all of you fine traders later on. We had gap fills, Fib fan rejections, you name it, so it's time to regroup and plot out the next round of moves for tomorrow, because no matter how well we did today, we won't rest on our laurels of good fortune. Excellent trading group.... I still can't get over the coordination that continues to happen here on TTW. In a word, Wow! See you all later on tonight, and enjoy whatever success you extracted!

And in the meanwhile, I present the weakest links and a chart on UUP, and where it stands... $RUT finished down 1.31% and XLF down 1.39%

Not buying it…

noreply@blogger.com (DavidDT) — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 03:38:00 PST

Yesterday a lot of commenters on a lot of financial blogs were outraged by timing of BNI announcement – are not we glad we can keep cool heads and understand that during the war each side tries to get as much strategic advance as possible? We have multiple tools here, yesterday the one that provided explanation was DeMark (see chart posted yesterday) – lets keep up a team work and productive environment. A lot of people are constantly on the site – don’t be shy to post or the very least – to ask questions.

Speaking of comments – we are getting to the point where emotions might be difficult to keep in check (for some people), words “mutual respect” becoming an empty sound for some – I can tolerate a lot of things, more than you can imagine, but please, shall attacks on people having different opinions that one’s repeat – I will not engage in yesterday's conversation again. (None was banned – I prefer to give people benefits of the doubts – there is always an excuse such as too much vodka)

Why I am not buying it? Is not it obvious? What do I need crap for?

Here are few slimmed down short term charts – they look awfully similar – w4 of down contains entire 1-5 up wave (it is like w4 is not already pain in the neck to trade – no wonder I stayed away) – w4 is clear on /NQ and /ES on lower tick will show the same (it takes eternity to load tick chart with DeMark, cannot post every single one, my bad)

11/04/2009

Futures approx. BO

Daily Range Projection

Low

High

/ES

1034

1051.50

SPX

1039.68

1052.09

/NQ

1663

1688.75

NDX

1669.26

1689.05

When the Music Stops

noreply@blogger.com (Keirsten) — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 17:49:00 PST

Tuesday gave us very little in the way of big moves on the tape, but it was an interesting day in oh, so many ways. So far it's been rather easy to navigate the tape via the $USD/$SPX correlation, but today we were left with three major market components all ending the day in the positive. $USD + .14%, $WTIC + 1.68% and $GOLD + 2.38%. So what gives, and who will be left without a chair once the music stops? As we enter into tomorrow's FOMC announcement, the intraday charts are coiled pretty tightly, so trade carefully if you're one of the types that likes the rush post announcement, and perhaps we'll recognize a pattern developing pre-announcement tomorrow that we can trade if so inclined. I wanted to review the chart on oil volatility - $OVX, with you tonight, and also the chart on XLE. The coal sector received quite a boost via the BNI buyout, so it could be a sector play going forward. I'll post some momentum possibles in the comments below with all of you in a few, and you may get sick of my broken record, but thanks for all of the work everyone does around here each day. Our host has a very liberal policy on letting us not only trade our own methods, but he's also very tolerant of many points of view. I consider us blessed to have a place like this every day to work together. ~Keirsten

"A successful team, a winning organization is made up of many individuals, each of whom, in his (or her) own way, has attained a personal greatness" - Billy Cox

$OVX

$XLE

On the economic calendar tomorrow: Challenger Job Report, 7.30 AM, ADP Employment, 8:15 AM. ISM Non-manufacturing, 10:00 AM, and Petroleum Status at 10:30 AM. FOMC Announcement at 2:15 PM All times in EST. (it's so good to have that extra hour back!)

Earnings Link

Has the Train Left the Station?

noreply@blogger.com (Keirsten) — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 09:08:00 PST

FOMC Tuesday finds the tape moving like you're walking backwards on an elevator so far, but you know what happens every time I mention I think things are slow, and I promised David I would not press my luck with my "it's boring/slow" calls. ;-) Congrats to Miss Fujisan for her excellent charting on Gold and how this has played out. Well done!

Buffet sure gave the Trannies a bump today with his announcement, but let's take a closer look at the IYT and see where it's sitting as of mid-session. Double resistance right up the train tracks ahead....

I also wanted to share a close-up view of a chart I threw together in case we see the tape start moving up, as we've all speculated might happen. SPX will face Quadruple resistance, and we know what happened the last time if faced the big 'ol Quad brick wall. Will it hold this time? None of us know for sure, but I have a difficult time racking my blonde brain as to what would push it much higher than the levels I've noted on the chart. This would also fit my own pattern thesis on the pattern that won't be mentioned I charted last Wednesday, as well as a good fit time-wise going forward, if, in fact, we do see the tape move up.

Good trading to you all for the remainder of this yawner of a session, (see, I snuck one in there anyway,) and let's keep focused and use the time to plan and watch if nothing else. Here's my favorite Mark Knopfler instrumental as my thank you to David for his music earlier. This is part of the musical score from a movie called, "Local Hero," set in Scotland... a movie cult favorite and at the top of my all time favorites too...

David here

I’ve been keeping low profile today due to many reasons.

First – I bet like a lot of you I keep falling asleep in the chair. Secondly – I really missed few trading opportunities such as long dollar (was long /DX on Friday(?), closed because did not need that additional fatigue – I am still not quite back).

Gold breakout – not that I trade gold, but that would have been a clean trade. But it is OK, there always is another trade and I’d rather be out of the trade wishing I was in than in the trade wishing I was out.

What I really want to show you here is that the game is rigged, was rigged, will be rigged – so stop complaining and as George said: “If you can't beat them, arrange to have them beaten.”

Look when American All You Can Eat Buffett made an announcement (I am not even asking WHY he bought BNI – I guess “new deal” is sealed and Midwestern railroads will benefit most and good ‘ole vulture front running taxpayers yet again – just like when he benefited from cannot lose GS deal on following “banks are too big to let them fail” bailouts)

I don’t like the guy, I despised people like him all my life, not because he’s got money and I don’t – I respect Steve Jobs, Michael Dell – they created something of a value, all B. did was getting in on only him available info – real Scrooge.

Anyhow – look at few railroads charts – timing of announcement lined up precisely with max possible effect on the long side. I am not surprised that there are a lot of bears who cannot keep emotions out of the game – when I see something like this – it makes me SICK!.

Daily Range Projections Nov 3rd ‘09

noreply@blogger.com (DavidDT) — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 03:28:00 PST

11/03/2009

Futures approx. BO

Daily Range Projection

Low

High

/ES

1032.25

1056

SPX

1036.13

1058.93

/NQ

1659

1697

NDX

1662.14

1699.54

Here is something you don’t see every day – might just be bad tick, but very well could be stops fireworks extravaganza

Enjoy the rest of your morning

Just Another Manic Monday

noreply@blogger.com (Keirsten) — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 15:28:00 PST

This is what's left of my computer after last night, so I don't have a lot to offer just yet, but I'm sure David will provide us with some DeMark charts if the music moves him. I was just thinking about what I should title this comment cleaner, and I realized how often traders say things like, "this is really a critical price level," or "it's make it or break it time.." we are a dramatic group sometimes, aren't we? ;-) I'm just now looking under the hood to see where we are on the various indicators and indices, but the Qs do have my interest, and I know they gave David a pause earlier today as well. So.. with that, a look at my daily QQQQ chart and yet another rock and a hard place it seems to find itself in. Maybe we should call it price purgatory for now until it makes up its mind? I'll be back later on with more charting meltdown with the rest of you. Jay made mention of a rate increase coming tonight from RBA, so that is definitely worth a watch. (Thank you Jay!) And a thank you to all for yet another good day of trading rhythm! ~Keirsten

David here.

I’ve been doing some thinking.

We, the small, but coordinated group of traders here, have done pretty good job last few days (to say the least).

We have caught downside move from Oct 21st, we did not get shaken off on retest of high on 10/26 (kudos to those who did not resist that latest contagious disease commonly known as “Mad Russian”), we foresaw that vicious bounce on 10/29 (some made extra coin that day and reshorted into close) – all overall this is probably as clean as it gets.

But now we are craving for more, more…and the truth is – we have very limited immediate downside, we might have some upside, but unless current situation will not play out by itself – no matter how hard we think of it – odds are not in our favor in terms of R/R to push it as hard as some of us want to push it now.

As you see (SPY) and (QQQQ) completed or completing sequence down and either already or about to be in abc magnitude of which is as much a secret for me as for anyone else’s. (UUP) already completed (and “locked”) entire down sequence with current move up being abc of quite extended proportions. SO, wherever you look – everywhere there are the signs of “looking for direction” and I don’t want to try to predict what is not yet there.

Below are daily/weekly SPY to refresh some levels

Nov 3rd 5:10AM EST – here is another slight melt down in the making

Balancing Act

noreply@blogger.com (Keirsten) — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 09:39:00 PST

Once again we're at a delicate point on the charts, and after that lovely jump on the ISM data (by the way, it started jumping the gun at least 5 minutes pre-announcement.. hmmm) and then the correction. As pointed out several times by Bala, that climb was weak at best, so it's imperative to keep an eye closely on volume for the rest of the afternoon. If you can't run software like Bala does, you might want to play around with volume by price and get a feel for congestion, etc. that way intra-day. It's the poor man's version, but I never leave home without it.

Yet again, IWM and the Qs are lagging and remain the weakest links. I'll post charts or David will later on, as trading is taking up a lot of my attention today, but I did see a chart on SPXA200R earlier on Chartly and recreated it to share with all of you. If this doesn't look like a bubble, I don't know what does at these levels...

Good trading into the afternoon to you all and keep your data coming- we all benefit greatly from it! ~Keirsten

DDT here.

I’ve been quiet today due to multiple reasons, but mainly due to trying to answer one question: “Is this the beginning of one of those trends looking back at 1 year from today we would wish that we’d just positioned our portfolios in the direction of the trend, turned trading stations off and came back in a year….rich and famous….or dumb and broke…never know until it is over.

Anyhow – here is a chart of /NQ, it does show significant change of personality, it is not just lagging stronger indexes, but it goes from one death red downside sequence straight to another – now in the 3rd one from the top.

Daily Range Projection Nov 2nd ‘09

noreply@blogger.com (DavidDT) — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 04:34:00 PST

11/02/2009

Futures approx. BO

Daily Range Projection

Low

High

/ES

1014.50

1047

SPX

1018.77

1050.80

/NQ

1635.50

1686.50

NDX

1641.40

1689.80

Like most of my stays in medical institutions last one did not last long – after been awarded stylish t-short suitable for participation in “who has the most disgusting bottom” contest and being connected to primitively looking “respiratory machine” I started to demonstrate my natural curiosity and ask questions.

Q. I think I saw same kind of “machine” in local CVS?

A. Oh, those machines are not approved by organization we pay huge bribes to.

Q. Are you going to be doing any procedures to me at night and if not – why should I stay?

A. We will be monitoring you (according to the hospital's “unpublished prices – it is about $1,200 – for this money I can book penthouse in Taj Mahal)

Health care has become reminiscence of auto repair industry, you never know what needs to be done, you have no idea how much something is going to cost, medical personnel interested more in charging for the same meaningless procedures time and again (like taking body temperature, blood pressure etc – you know – all that safe kind of tests)

So, long story short – I escaped and on the way home bought that “unapproved device” in CVS and on Saturday morning I called my doctor and he did prescription for antibiotic (or whatever it was ) to be added as active agent in that “unapproved machine”

I still feel kind of disoriented (I bet you figured it out reading this post), I might be adding some charts to this post later.

Sunday Night Huddle

noreply@blogger.com (Keirsten) — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 14:51:00 PST

Good Sunday Evening to one and all, it’s time again to prep for the trading week ahead. I hope everyone had an excellent weekend and you’re rested both physically and mentally to tackle your trading plans. I’m going to post a few select charts in the main portion tonight, along with a set of links for Momo traders and watch lists in the comment section with all of you. I have also updated my graph on ICI data to show money is still flowing out of U.S. Equities as of the Oct. 21st report, and will do my best to keep that graph up to date in the weeks ahead. Follow the money, as they say, and as of the current data, it seems to be pulling an Elvis. I have not heard from our DDT yet, so I can’t share any updates on that front, but I know we’ll do him proud this week in the interim, and please continue to keep him in your thoughts, as well as Squiddy. It’s never the same around here without either of them. If the comments get a little crazy during the day and my comment cleaners bite, please bear with me, as I plan to trade like Lucy Ricardo on the chocolate dipping conveyor belt. So with that, fellow traders… see you all below with more trading ideas, and let’s roll! ~Keirsten

$TRAN

Quick note and speaking of transportation: take a quick look at $BDI when you have a minute, because it does look bullish.

QCOM

You may be thinking.. why is she putting QCOM up here… well, QCOM has earnings on Wednesday and currently holds 6.33% of the Qs, so it’s one we need to track right up until those earnings, IMO. QCOM also has a very interesting pattern/price action going on, so even for swing traders, this is worth a watch, earnings or not.

Long-term Mutual Fund Flows into U.S. Equities

Last but not least… a quick look at indicators and the potential failure of using indicators to call something overbought/oversold

On the Economic Calendar for Monday: Motor Vehicle Sales (still checking on a time for that,) 10 AM: ISM Mfg Index, Construction Spending and Pending Home Sales. Don’t forget: FOMC Meeting begins Tuesday and will end Wednesday (Ode to Joy)

Link to Earnings Calendar

Patience

noreply@blogger.com (Keirsten) — Sat, 31 Oct 2009 12:34:00 PDT

First of all, I'm really impressed that we have a group of traders here who can really manage to step away from their computers on a weekend and exploit a little free time. We had quite a week, and I don't know about the rest of you, but my brain feels like it's been playing Twister for about a week. Still... there is always a little bit of anticipation after a week like that and where we go next, but patience remains an important element so we can all keep our wits about us. That's one smart black cat over there- he waits, knowing that eventually what he wants will come out, and so will we. If it's a bounce, a resumption, further slide you want ... it will come to those who wait. I really don't have any "ah-ha" charts to share today, but just a few basics on tap. Zig Zag, on the other hand is sharing another one of his masterpieces, and has been teasing me that he has something even prettier on the VIX for us, so hopefully by tomorrow we'll see what he has up his sleeve. In the meanwhile, here are a few of my simple simon charts, without belaboring hundreds of other indicator charts we all watch each and every day. Please do post them to share with us- as it not only opens our eyes to new things and new possibilities, but definitely takes the work load off as well, and is always very much appreciated by one and all. See you all tomorrow, with more to come. Have a great Saturday evening TTW Crew! ~Keirsten

Zig Zag's Roadmap

The Rout

noreply@blogger.com (Keirsten) — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 12:19:00 PDT

Shorts gone wild!!! I will post some charts either later on tonight or tomorrow for certain, but for now it's time to take a short break away from the tape/charts. Please keep your good thoughts and prayers directed for our DDT this weekend (note how he's still cracking jokes no matter how sick he must be feeling- you have to love that about him!) Also, please keep Squiddy and his friend in your thoughts as well. We'll huddle together and map out the next steps for Monday and beyond over the weekend. Thanks to every one of you for fantastic analysis, input, charts and good laughs amongst good trading buddies here. Enjoy your weekend and go hug someone you love if you've had a good week, because that's why we fight this battle every day and that's really what life is all about. ~Keirsten

Trick or Treat

noreply@blogger.com (Keirsten) — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 08:07:00 PDT

SPX managed to send 100% of the gains from yesterday to the graveyard- and it seems like we've got some fairly good swing trading price action from day to day building up to something. What that "something" is remains to be seen, but I have a hunch today will give us more clarity. For now, it's as clear as mud, but we're at end of month and for many funds- end of fiscal year today, so perhaps we'll see them release the monster and scare this tape down, once and for all.... let's just hope it's not another trick.

We have a pattern worth watching today on UUP that could very well turn out to be a nice little treat for those who are short. I know we have quite a few traders who swing the metals and miners, and GLD is at another critical point at the trend line today...

[voice from the basement]

Hi gang, DDT here, would like to say few things before going quietly into the night of the hospital.

1. Keirsten did it again! At 11:07 she did yet another “it is so boring today” post and market plunged right the moment she pressed “publish” button.

2. Glad I held through yesterday’s mayhem – I would have no chance to reload today and I would feel extremely violated should I missed this move.

3. Next TDST support daily SPY 102 area, today marker might attempt to make it back to 105 to kiss it long time good night. (Looks like while I was typing it just did its best)

4. Comments count is unacceptably low today – and it is very good, it tells me that some people make money and don’t want to talk about it (if we’ll know where your money is – we will come and get it, right?) or at least not losing any money today (happens when that was done yesterday)

5. I was told I need to get hooked up to some “respiratory machine” and was assured that my stay will not be long and that is the way I like it – pull the plug and go with honor.

See you all on another side (did I say something wrong ….again???)

Surprise!!! Surprise???

noreply@blogger.com (DavidDT) — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 18:07:00 PDT

Here is the chart I posted to Disqus thread around 3PM on Oct 28th with comment something like “Bounce is coming, it will be wB (B and 4 are famous to rid you of your profits in no time) – TDSetup Buy completing soon on hourly chart”

Also, as I mentioned in my last video – 105 area is a TDST Support on daily for current TDSetup Sell.

Here is the same as of today’s close (Note TDST Resistance at 107.21)

107.21 is in line with Keirsten’s “triple resistance

So, lets call it “Quadruple Resistance” now

Within few hours tomorrow (at most “few hours”) – SPY should stop its ascend at that area and close below 106.91 (if so happen – ongoing TDSetup buy Daily will not be interrupted)

Over and out

DavidDT

8:37AM EDT Oct 30th ‘09

10/30/2009

Futures approx. BO

Daily Range Projection

Low

High

/ES

1049.25

1076

SPX

1054

1078.04

/NQ

1692.50

1728.25

NDX

1698.60

1725.66

Some Days are Slower Than Others

noreply@blogger.com (Keirsten) — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 09:45:00 PDT

It's a funny thing how traders sometimes have to hurry up and wait for the next "thing" to happen, and this day sure feels that way so far. Then again, the last few times I've said this, everything starts moving again, so I'll take a hit for the team. :-) Here is a quick look at the potential backtest of the broken July trend line, as well as an intra-day look at the "old" channel. I'm also posting a potential roadmap for nothing more than a projection of what could happen, but it's just that... conjecture.

So.... with that, it's probably a good idea not to be too impatient or hurry things along, as you never know what might happen if you do.

DDT here – quick buck for you…I meant quick chart of buck for you

“Change” – you can put that to MY bank.

noreply@blogger.com (DavidDT) — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 03:44:00 PDT

And few changes there are.
First – I finally gave up on my presence at EvilSpeculator.com
No, I was NOT banned – I am very surprised I was not – number of sarcastic remarks and constant contradiction to a lot of bears there remotely close to mine would have caused a lot of others (and it did) to be gone forever.
I just had as much of “Napoleon Complex” as I could possible tolerate – you know – that stuff: “My charts are better than yours, my black boxes are finer than theirs, my dick is bigger than yours, people hate me because I am beautiful….” (Pretty much the same reason why I “banned myself” from SOH long time ago – you know…”My house is bigger than yours, my account size is bigger than yours, my shorts are great – no I closed those right before rally” – screw it – go trade for a living day in day out without having paycheck from your owner – OK?)
And what’s with “MY troops”? I am a grown up and I have made difficult choices in my life, last time I was in someone’s “troop” was back in Russia when I was sent for slaughter in Afghanistan and that almost invisible scar on my chest still reminds me that I will NOT be anyone's private no more.
I guess, my posting of George Carlin’s video clip just yesterday was in a way prophetic - so let me do it again for those who missed it.

‘nuf said

I expect bounce today, IF this correction is here to stay for longer than priors’ period – wB up will be very flat – that will equally screw longs who hope to close at the better prices and shorts who hope to short at the better levels (most of shorts missed it while dick swinging)

Rydex Market Timers’ action confirm that this is, least to say, more serious and prolonged correction than any prior from March lows.

As you can see from Upper Price Projections – bounce to round numbers/retest to be expected.

10/29/2009

Futures approx. BO

Daily Range Projection

Low

High

/ES

1025.75

1050.75

SPX

1031.92

1052.95

/NQ

1655.75

1700.75

NDX

1661

1700.94

Last, but not least I’d like you to look at springheel_jack’s chart (it is a huge benefit of having good community here – I can use someone else’s charts instead of my own “weally weally noisy” charts ….and still take some benefits :)

P.S. Pagination poll has been closed. Overwhelming majority is fine with no pagination (we don’t really have 400-500 comments monsters yet and it is not really our goal to have it – we welcome everyone to participate, but not blackmailing to do so)

11/10/2009 Futures approx. BO
Daily Range Projection	Low	High
/ES	1078.25	1105.50
SPX	1082.70	1103.59
/NQ	1747.25	1787
NDX	1755	1780.70

11/09/2009 Futures approx. BO
Daily Range Projection	Low	High
/ES	1059.50	1076.25
SPX	1064.33	1076.47
/NQ	1717.25	1749.75
NDX	1719.82	1743.88

11/06/2009 Futures approx. BO
Daily Range Projection	Low	High
/ES	1051	1076
SPX	1056.97	1076.32
/NQ	1695	1745.25
NDX	1709.52	1734.51

11/05/2009 Futures approx. BO
Daily Range Projection	Low	High
/ES	1044	1061.50
SPX	1037.90	1053.75
/NQ	1680	1706.50
NDX	1667.77	1691.15

11/04/2009 Futures approx. BO
Daily Range Projection	Low	High
/ES	1034	1051.50
SPX	1039.68	1052.09
/NQ	1663	1688.75
NDX	1669.26	1689.05

11/03/2009 Futures approx. BO
Daily Range Projection	Low	High
/ES	1032.25	1056
SPX	1036.13	1058.93
/NQ	1659	1697
NDX	1662.14	1699.54

11/02/2009 Futures approx. BO
Daily Range Projection	Low	High
/ES	1014.50	1047
SPX	1018.77	1050.80
/NQ	1635.50	1686.50
NDX	1641.40	1689.80

10/30/2009 Futures approx. BO
Daily Range Projection	Low	High
/ES	1049.25	1076
SPX	1054	1078.04
/NQ	1692.50	1728.25
NDX	1698.60	1725.66

10/29/2009 Futures approx. BO
Daily Range Projection	Low	High
/ES	1025.75	1050.75
SPX	1031.92	1052.95
/NQ	1655.75	1700.75
NDX	1661	1700.94