Left at the Gate

Honestly

noreply@blogger.com (alan) — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 04:48:00 +0000

With Albany still absorbing and evaluating the effect of the verdict which made Joe Bruno a convicted felon, the constitutionality of the "honest services" law under which he was prosecuted was argued in the Supreme Court on Tuesday. And apparently, not very well for the federal government.

The 21-year-old statute, which makes is a crime to "deprive another of honest services," has recently been criticized by both the left and right as overly broad. Judging from their questions, justices from both ends of the ideological spectrum also appeared united in their skepticism of the law. Justice Stephen Breyer said the law's language could enable the indictment of tens of millions of people, while Justice Antonin Scalia mockingly said that the law has come to mean, "Nobody shall do bad things." [AmLaw Litigation Daily]

Y'know, for a guy who's supposed to be so charming and bright, Scalia has never struck me as being either. Just seems like your garden variety radical in robes as far as I'm concerned.

Most of the other justices sounded the same theme. Justices Stephen G. Breyer and Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. suggested several times that the law might be unconstitutional because it was so vague.

"A citizen is supposed to be able to understand the criminal law," Breyer said, yet it was unclear what the law in question branded as a crime. [LA Times]

I don't really understand what's so unclear here. An elected official compromises the interest of the public which elected him or her in the course of enriching himself personally.

The honest-services law, on the federal books since 1988, broadly requires that public and corporate officials act in the best interests of their constituents or employers.

Is that so complicated?

Bruno was convicted on counts four and eight; the latter was regarding his "failure to disclose his participation through Mountain View Farm in a partnership with Abbruzzese involving thoroughbred race horses." But interestingly, and contrary to what was reported in some articles I've seen, this was not the count which dealt with the $80,000 (actually $40,000 cash and a $40,000 debt forgiveness) that Abbruzzese paid Bruno for a horse now generally accepted as being "broken down." That was count six, of which Bruno was acquitted. Recalling that the jury asked to hear a readback of testimony regarding Friends of New York Racing, I'm thinking that it just could be that Bruno's conviction, at least on that count (and perhaps the other as well), stemmed in large part from suspicions the jury may have harbored about efforts by Abbruzzese to influence Bruno during the battle for the racing franchise.

That would be ironic, because, as I recall, Bruno remained rather aloof during the Ad Hoc Committee process and even afterwards; and I don't ever recall him expressing any favoritism towards any particular group, Empire included. I thought at the time that maybe he was chastened by the persistent press (and blog) reports of the connection between the two men (as you would think Malcolm Smith would be wary of endorsing AEG).

And, if that's the case, it would also answer the question, which a few readers have recently posed, of just what the hell all of this has to do with racing. Not, of course, that I'm not allowed to write about it even if it doesn't relate at all. But it does.

Personally, I thought that the part of the case which involved Wright Investors (count one) was an even clearer case of Bruno depriving the public of his honest services than his dealings with Abbruzzese. Soliciting business (from which he earned commissions) from unions to whom he did not disclose that arrangement, and, as the prosecution alleged, favoring them in the course of their business before the state. Perhaps the jury didn't find the evidence of the latter to be persuasive. I certainly did.

- The verdict seems not to have damaged Bruno's reputation among his former constituents.

- Bruno resigned his position as the CEO of CMA Consulting. I'm not sure if he'll have to give up his box at Saratoga.

- Very bad weather headed this way; wouldn't be surprised if the Big A is washed out on Wednesday.

Service Interruption

noreply@blogger.com (alan) — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 19:32:00 +0000

We're down at my parents' place in Florida, but there's currently no internet access at the house; thus the lack of posting. Probably saving some money too, since the weather hasn't been so great, and I'd likely be sitting inside betting on races. Still here for a couple more days, so if you don't hear from me you'll know why.

Paul Post wrote in The Saratogian of the expanded racino hours that were not a part of the deficit reduction bill passed last week.

Plans called for keeping racinos open two more hours, from 2 a.m. to 4 a.m., a move that might have netted the state an extra $45 million.

Well, I support slots at tracks while holding my nose; more as an acceptance of a life line, and in the interest of leveling the playing field. But that support only goes so far, and not as far as the thought of the state relying on the folks who sit glued - in fact, literally tethered by their cash cards - at those machines at 3:30 A.M. They could make up that $45 million tomorrow if they would just choose the Aqueduct winner and collect the excess over the budgeted $200 million that they figure to be able to receive.

Nonetheless, once the governor and the legislature look at the even bigger deficits to come, there's little doubt in my mind that expanded gambling will be a key part of the equation. I mean, they agonized to enact a mere $600-700 million of real cuts; facing billions more, I think I can say that table games at New York's racetracks are a near certainty...and in the very near future too. I think you'll see blackjack at Yonkers before the first ~~coin~~ card is slipped into a machine at the Big A.

Chapter 9 (Updated)

noreply@blogger.com (alan) — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 16:29:00 +0000

This is the press release about this morning's announcement regarding NYC OTB's Chapter 9 bankruptcy filing. Here's a key portion regarding OTB's strategy for getting back on its feet. And notice that it's the racing industry, and not the state or the city, which figures to take it hit if their plan is approved.

The business plan will call for a dramatic overhaul of the NYC OTB business model. New technologies are expected to enhance customer service while increasing efficiency and cutting costs. A new bricks and mortar strategy is intended to reinvent old storefront locations while creating new, modern flagship attractions in select city locations.

Most importantly, the business plan will ask for changes to the racing laws, including a modification of the current legislative distribution scheme, which at present require NYC OTB to calculate and pay the State, the City and the horse racing industry a percentage of gross wagers placed with NYC OTB. The business plan will propose instead that NYC OTB make calculations and payments to the horse racing industry based on Wagering Commission revenue it actually receives after allowance for costs of NYC OTB's functions have been met. NYC OTB will not be asking for any changes to the legislation as it relates to payments to the City and State. Without this change, NYC OTB may be forced to cease operations, which would cause the City, the State and horse racing industry to lose all revenues that could be provided by NYC OTB.

UPDATE - NYRA responds that they have no response.

In response to today's announcement from the New York City Off-Track Betting Corporation (NYC OTB) that it intends to file a petition for adjustment of its debts under Chapter 9 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York, The New York Racing Association, Inc. (NYRA) expects to be one of the largest creditors to the NYC OTB bankruptcy action and therefore it would not be prudent for NYRA to comment on the filing outside of the court proceedings.

Jurors On Track

noreply@blogger.com (alan) — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 06:05:00 +0000

No verdict yet, but the jury in the Bruno trial showed some interest in what is generally, but not exclusively (it does say Thoroughbred Racing and other opinions, after all), the main topic around here. They requested a readback of testimony by Jared Abbruzzese regarding the worthless horse for which he paid Bruno $80,000. You may recall that Abbruzzese told the court that he purchased the horse, named Christy's Night Out (pedigree not available on Pedigree Query), to fulfill a "moral obligation" to compensate for a consulting gig from which the former Senate Majority Leader was terminated.

Horse breeder Stuart Jamison Morris, who runs Dapple Stud Farm in Lexington, Ky., said he examined the horse and said there was nothing exceptional about it physically that would give it a high value as a race horse.

Morris said it was a small horse, the “bottom of the barrel in the world of thoroughbred” horses and worth less than $5,000. [Troy Record]

And the jury asked to hear Abbruzzese's testimony about our old friends at Friends of New York Racing, the predecessor entity to Empire Racing.

It included Abbruzzese being asked about an Aug, 26, 2004 golf outing he had with Bruno, then-future NYRA executives Tim Smith and Steve Duncker. [ed.-In fact, Smith was the future president of Empire and never worked at NYRA; Duncker was already on NYRA's board and became sole chairman the next year. Whatsmore, Duncker was considering Smith for CEO of NYRA until he learned that Smith was scheming for an Empire takeover all along..] At the time, Bruno was being paid $20,000-a-month to work at two Abbruzzese-backed companies.

Abbruzzese was also asked about an “off-campus” meeting in his Loudonville living room with Bruno he arranged in May 2005 while Friends of New York Racing was hoping to succeed NYRA overseeing the state’s racetracks. The meeting was highlighted in a memo Tim Smith, then head of Friends of New York Racing, sent to the group’s board members. [Times Union]

Old time readers recall that we talked a lot about these shenanigans at the time around here; a couple of background posts here and here.

- I found the gay marriage debate to be a rare bit of truly compelling, and even at times moving, drama to take place in a chamber where most outcomes are determined in advance. Here many of us have been bashing these guys, and, lately, the Democrats in particular, for being clowns; but now I was watching Senators such as Eric Schneiderman, Kevin Parker (all duded up for the occasion), Diane Savino, even Pedro Espada Jr., and the bill's sponsor Tom Duane (with my sister-in-law right there on TV behind him!) speak with passion and eloquence about Thomas Jefferson, the constitution, the long, uphill fights for civil rights over the years, and equality and justice for all.

On the other hand, only Senator Ruben Diaz Sr, amongst the 38 lawmakers who voted the measure down, had the balls to get up and explain to the voters why. If they did, and if they were being honest, many of them would explain that they had their own political fortunes in mind given the supposed anti-incumbent mood of the voters, and especially, for the Republicans (who, against many expectations, voted unanimously against) after the right-wing revolt against the GOP candidate Dede Scozzafava, who favors same-sex marriage.

Among the eight Democrats who abandoned the ideals of the party was the convicted girlfriend-dragger-down-the-apartment-hallway Hiram Monseratte; and Joseph Addabbo, who defeated Republican Serph Maltese in the district which includes Aqueduct. We no doubt will see Addabbo's smiling face at the press conference announcing which group will seek to attract degenerate slots gamblers to his district. Whenever that turns out to be.

Big A Up (Almost) Next?

noreply@blogger.com (alan) — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 05:39:00 +0000

Governor Paterson now says that he will reluctantly accept the $2.8 billion dollar deficit reduction plan that legislative leaders claim he agreed to on Monday. But don't call it a deal.

"I would not describe it as a deal, Ken. Because a deal means that all parties accept the agreement," Paterson told reporters during a Red Room ceremony. "This proposal for $2.8 billion of deficit reduction, includes $1.6 billion that I'm reducing myself and $400 million of stimulus dollars that we're actually supposed to use next year." [New York Observer]

The governor continues to insist that he will, and can, compensate for the ~~deal's~~ plan's deficiencies himself.

There was talk of an all-nighter at the Senate to craft and pass the necessary bills; but that will wait until Wednesday (as the Assembly burns the midnight oil).

And, of course, $200 million from the Big A sweepstakes winner is included in the ~~plan~~ arrangement; and once this is finally over, then we might finally learn who will be selected to....

Oh...yeah, first actually comes the long-awaited Senate vote on same-sex marriage, scheduled to, as promised, come to the floor following the passing of the DRP. The question of whether supporters can garner the 32 necessary votes seems to be an open one, with the possibility of a few Republicans voting in favor, thus compensating for the few Democrats who may vote against.

One of the latter who's for certain is Senator Ruben Diaz Sr., the most vocal opponent of gay marriage in the Senate. He's nervous enough that he retired to his Albany office to pray. You know, to that God who's in favor of inequality and discrimination.

Paterson meanwhile was in Brooklyn Tuesday night for a town meeting where, it was reported, he reiterated that he intends to run in an attempt to keep his job in 2010. There's no doubt that the governor is seeking to make political gains from his stubborn stand against the legislature, as Elizabeth Benjamin highlighted the other day. But why shouldn't he? It's not like he's a johnny-come-lately to the budget deficit - he's been urgently sounding the alarm practically since his first day in office (or at least after he dealt with the drug and adultery stuff). So I say humbug to his fellow Democrats in the Senate who have criticized him for playing politics; he's just playing the game just as you would (if you weren't too busy doing nothing), and you guys are the perfect foil. If he's ever gonna get back into the race, it'll be in large part on your backs.

Two Down, Six To Go

noreply@blogger.com (alan) — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 02:37:00 +0000

The early speculation that the jury would return a quick verdict on Joe Bruno has proven to be totally off base.

“After careful consideration, we have come to a consensus on two counts. We cannot come to a decisionn on the other six counts. Could you please provide us with some guidance as to how we are to proceed. We are not ready to give up, but we could use some assistance.” [Politics on the Hudson]

Judge Gary Sharpe, concerned by the use of the word "consensus," reminded the jury that unanimous consent is required for conviction. The jurors replied that, indeed, they had reached a verdict on two counts.

As far as what the verdict is on those two counts, really, your guess is as good as mine. Here are the eight counts against Bruno, as summarized in the New York Times this morning. The testimony of Mary Louise Mallick, which was read back to the jury on Monday, would seem to favor the defense.

But, on the other hand, the fact that the jury's request on Tuesday for a read back of Nov 6 testimony by businessman Leonard Fassler pertained to such a specific portion of that testimony - regarding a payment of just $15,000 of the $468,000 that Bruno was paid by him - indicates to me that the jury could be zeroing in on a specific instance in which they feel that Bruno did, indeed, deprive his constituency of his honest services.

Mr. Fassler appeared to have trouble describing what consulting work Mr. Bruno did for him, and said that an invoice he asked Mr. Bruno to send him was “more form over substance.” [NY Times]

Fassler had also told the court that, in 1995, he requested, through Bruno (who he had been paying $4000 a month since 1993), a meeting with Governor Pataki "to discuss the forging of a partnership between IBM, NYS and AmeriData.” Fassler ran the latter company. He also had been asked about his company's efforts to do business with OTB. And he told the court that a Bruno aide was “very good at getting tickets at Saratoga raceways.” No surprise there of course.

Deal or No Deal

noreply@blogger.com (alan) — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 05:47:00 +0000

Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver has been clear that he doesn't feel that the Aqueduct selection needs to be made until after the conclusion of the budget negotiations which have consumed Albany going on four weeks now. But now that the talks appear to have concluded without a conclusion, where does that leave the epic selection process?

The deficit reduction talks between Governor Paterson and the Legislature appear to have broken down completely (despite a report of a "deal" early Monday evening). The governor said that the Legislature's "last best offer," which included some $600-700 million worth of cuts, was insufficient. And despite legislative leaders still holding out hope for an eventual deal, Paterson said that the talks have now "concluded." “I have given the Legislature more than enough time to join with me to address this crisis." [Times Union]

Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver said that his side has gone as far as it is willing, or able, to go, and that even the governor's scaled-back education cuts were not acceptable.

“Clearly the Senate will not entertain any education cuts, minority or majority, and therefore there aren’t 32 votes in the Senate to do a broader deficit-reduction plan. So having said that (the governor was) presented something within the political realities that exist. And it’s up to the governor to accept or reject or modify.” [Politics on the Hudson]

In response, the governor, in his latest plan to take matters entirely into his own hands, announced that he will direct the Budget Division to withhold certain payments to local governments, a move that threatened to squeeze social service providers, schools and municipal governments. [NYT]

Previously, on Sunday, Paterson announced that he was ordering $1.6 billion in emergency cuts by executive fiat. But the Village Voice noted:

Some of the package involves dicey projected revenue, as with the presumed $200 million from the Aqueduct "racino" -- now envisioned as an up-front payment from whoever winds up taking the contract -- down from the $365 million expected in palmier days, but still (forgive us) a gamble.

- No verdict in the Bruno trial, and the jury (fresh from the long weekend during which they surely did not discuss the trial one bit with any members of their extended family with whom they ate (and drank) heartily) requested a readback of testimony that the former Senate Majority Leader feels is favorable to him. The Senate's chief finance officer, Mary Louise Mallick, testifying about the grants to Evident Technologies, stated that she would make recommendations as to the merits of such monies doled out by Bruno, and that "more often than not,” he would go along. She said that she visited Evident’s headquarters and ultimately decided that the company was a worthy investment. [NY Times]

And, as Robert Gavin notes on the Times Union's site, she had also told the court that the process became more "open" under Bruno, and that the grant recipients were made public on a website. Here, Gavin once again points out that it was only after the Times Union sued the Legislature, and by the resulting court order, that the names were released.

That, however, did not come out during the testimony. Judge Gary Sharpe rejected a later bid from federal prosecutors to allow the order from the Sullivan County judge into evidence. [Times Union]

When asked how he was spending the time as he awaits the verdict, Bruno said: “I’m taking a look at what you’re doing and saying.” In that case, I imagine he's surely getting a good laugh from the obvious frustration of the reporter from his old nemesis.

Odds and Ends

noreply@blogger.com (alan) — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 15:42:00 +0000

- So, doesn't the weak 9th place effort by Macho Again in the Clark serve to illustrate the mediocrity of the Woodward field that Rachel Alexandra beat, thus giving a boost to those who think that Zenyatta should be Horse of the Year?

- 4th in the Champagne, Super Saver dominated the Kentucky Jockey Club in his first try around two turns, earning a Beyer of 93 for the Toddster. He's a son of the late Maria's Mon, and what do you know? Despite having expired in 2007, he still has a Stallion Register page! Getting stats on dead stallions has been one of my pet peeves here throughout the years, so what do you know? An isolated case (as in, his stud farm is still paying the advertising bills)? Or a new trend? Super Saver is out of Supercharger, an AP Indy mare who's a half-sister to graded stakes winners Accelerator, Daydreaming, Girolamo, and to the dam of Pletcher's one-time Derby hopeful Bluegrass Cat, whose 2010 stud fee was cut from $40,000 to $25,000. His yearlings averaged a bit over $90,000 this year, not enough to sustain a fee which seemed oversized to me even in better times.

Super Saver combined with Sassy Image and Sheer Beauty, who won the Golden Rod and Caressing Handicap respectively, to complete an alliterative all-stakes Pick Three which returned $280. And you think you have to read Plonk for stuff you don't get anywhere else?

Aqueduct Notes

noreply@blogger.com (alan) — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 06:34:00 +0000

A double in the second at third at the Big A for the stallion Harlan's Holiday. First-time starter Launch N Relaunch ($12.80) won the second for ~~Dutrow~~ Juan Rodriguez, earning $26,400 towards his $350,000 price tag at auction as a yearling last fall. In the third, On Vacation ($18.40) made a successful switch to grass after five futile tries on dirt. Harlan's Holiday had seen his stud rise, from $17,500 in 2007 to $30,000 this year. He's had just an OK 2009, 6th on the third year sire list, and six stakes winners, two of them Grade 3's. And his yearling average has declines from around $92,000 to just under $69,000. So, little surprise that his stud fee was set to $25,000 for 2010.

That was a weak edition of the Demoiselle, won by Tizahit for trainer George Weaver. She's a daughter of Tiznow, the 10th stakes winner of the year for the sire. He's third on the overall sire list, which I guess was enough to hold the line on his stud fee at $75,000; that despite his yearling average dropping to just over $100,000, from over $170,000 in 2008 (14 of his two-year olds averaged a healthy $177,000).

Weaver has another horse who looks interesting in the 7th race on Sunday's card. Solvent (8-1) has shown some sharp improvement since Cornelio Velasquez jumped aboard three races back - a win in state-bred allowance followed by a close (though admittedly inside trip-aided) third to Banrock in the Mohawk Stakes. He made the switch to open company last time; but that was a mile and three-eighths. In the old days, when I was far more skeptical and suspicious, I probably would have thought that the trainer ran him in that race in order to produce an unimpressive pp line which would inflate his price for the next time, when the horse is really meant to win. Instead, I'll say that he's an improving horse who's found a jockey who fits and goes for a streaky kind of barn showing recent signs of life. (And it won't hurt his price that he ran 6th in his last.)

Buddy's Saint proved he could handle two turns.....or did he? He won the Remsen handily after taking over on the turn. His final time was nearly 1:53, and he came home in 25.98/13.49, earning a Beyer of 80, down from 101 in the Nashua.

Flashing ($8.50) took some late money before winning the Gazelle; no word if the Sheikh got in some late wagers with some borrowed funds. I took a long, hard look at this one before settling on second place finisher Unrivaled Belle, but didn't feel she had progressed (despite her win in the Test over a field which has not since distinguished itself). I know, she had a perfect synthetic excuse for her last two; indeed, that $33.20 exacta looks pretty generous in retrospect for someone who completely tossed the (slight) race favorite. Daughter of AP Indy progressed here to a career high 99 Beyer.

I was wrong about Kodiak Kowboy, a winner in his final race before going to stud. How much do you think this win, his third Grade 1 and first beyond seven furlongs, will cause his stud fee to increase?

Saturday Morning Notes

noreply@blogger.com (alan) — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 15:45:00 +0000

Something must be wrong. It's a big racing day for NYRA, and the weather is actually nice! I seem to remember reading a week or so ago about the possible starters for the Cigar Mile, and thinking it was going to be a full field and a wide open betting affair. Instead, just five wagering interests (and only 25 total in the four stakes)....though it is at least a fairly interesting race still. I don't like Kodiak Kowboy (2-1) at all. Still maintain he's a seven furlong horse (in spite of the Vosburgh), and I think he'll flatten out like he did in this race last year. I don't like Pyro either. Because....I just don't, OK? One doesn't have to have specific reasons to not like horses that one just doesn't like. Unfortunately, he's coupled with Vineyard Haven, who can't be dismissed in my opinion. But on the other hand, I'm still not completely sold since his two comeback wins have come in the slop. The entry is listed at 9-5, and will probably be less at post time.

Bribon (5-2) is reunited with Maragh, who piloted him to his close third in last year's Cigar Mile. Take a look at his one-turn mile form at Belmont and Aqueduct; it's a specialty distance for him, while the abovementioned all have some kind of question. Personally, I think he'd be fair value at 8-5; as the third choice, he'd be a major overlay.

Nice to see Stardom Bound back. I loved this filly with her stirring rallies from far, far back. Had her high on my Derby top ten, I'm proud to say. I hope she comes back strong, takes to the dirt, and kicks Whats-her-name's butt next year. That would be cool, wouldn't it?

However, as the 9-5 morning line favorite in the Gazelle, she demands a strong stance against in my opinion. Forget the layoff, and the fact that the co-owners hate each other. Even if she came into the race in fine form, she'd still be a total question mark in her first race on dirt after eight on various artificial surfaces. I will leave her out entirely, and use Mott's impressive Unrivaled Belle over Flashing, Milwaukee Appeal, and the improving Multipass instead.

By the same principle, you might want to take a look at Citrus Kid (6-1) in the Remsen. Neither Homeboykris (7-5) nor Buddy's Saint (4-5) have been around two turns while the appropriately-named Citrus Kid (Lemon Drop Kid - Orange Ice) won a mile and a sixteenth stakes at Delaware.

In the Demoiselle, Tizahit is rated at 4-1 for trainer George Weaver. I've followed this barn here from time to time as you may know, and we've seen him go on streaks both hot and cold. After his fine Saratoga meeting and an OK start at Belmont, he went stone cold, with just one win in 37 tries. However, recently, he's had a couple of wins from eight starters; in addition, My Man Lars was third by 3/4 at 6-1, and Molly Molly Molly was a tough luck 4th beaten only one length, at 10-1. He also had recent close calls with Monument Hill (3rd by 3/4 at 13-1) and Neversaywhen (2nd by a neck at 5-1). Tizahit has had two excellent tries around two turns, including a second in a Delaware stakes which has produced two subsequent (very) minor stakes winners. Forget the 4th in the one-turn Tempted, gets the money today in this entry-level allowance disguised as a Grade 2 stakes. Good luck and have a great day.

Death Valley (Compared To) '69

noreply@blogger.com (alan) — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 12:46:00 +0000

Hope that you all had a safe and happy Thanksgiving. I'm thankful that, as an unpaid blogger, I was under no obligation to write one of those "what I'm thankful for" posts. However, I can tell you that, in addition to a hearty meal and quality time with my family, I'm thankful that I was also able to experience a truly transcendent performance by Sonic Youth in Brooklyn on Wednesday night; and catch a few races on a sunny and unseasonably comfortable late Thanksgiving morning at the Big A.

A tad less than 3,000 people were on hand, with the first race going off at 11:25 A.M. I seem to recall the opener going off as early as 10:30 in the past. Forty years ago, post time was 11 A.M., and the crowd, "many of whom were attracted by the...early post," as reported then by the New York Times, numbered 35,665, a figure absolutely unimaginable at this point in time. According to the article, published on 11/28/1969, the early post was instituted in 1959 by NYRA's CEO John W. Hanes, and drew at least 30,000 each year up to that point. The largest such attendance was in 1964, with 38,284 on hand.

Two years later, in 1971, OTB began operations, and the crowd that year was 21,968, as bettors chose to spend their holiday mornings at the local parlor instead. A graph of the attendance since then would look roughly like that of Paterson's approval ratings.

In the first, the bettors fell hard for a Contessa entry; 5-1 in the morning line, they went off as the 2-1 favorite. This isn't the first time I'm mentioning that entries are liable to get overbet given the promise of two-for-one; especially perhaps on the day before Black Friday. Both Debbie's Fast Girl and Tempest Storm were dropping moderately in class after fair tries against better - and the latter was stretching out too. Clearly, neither was worthy of those odds alone, and I'm personally not of the belief that two horses who look like they should be 4-1/9-2 should be half that price just because there are two of them. Meanwhile, Elena's Princess, the 2-1 morning line favorite off a (top last-out Beyer) win in the same conditions, returned a generously overlaid $9.70 for Enrique Arroyo. There are situations in which I would have considered her to be dead on the board, but in this case, the overbet entry provided a reason to think otherwise. (So maybe if I had arrived early enough to thoughtfully analyze the race, I would have had her.)

Been noticing a lot of big dropdowns in the claiming ranks here lately; more than in the past, or am I just noticing them more? It might make sense for there to be more these days given a couple of factors - the larger purses provide sufficient rewards at lower levels; and, on the other hand, the poor economy, less racing opportunities, and the ever-increasing costs gone uncompensated due to the continued lack of slots money have owners desperately seeking the winner's circle, and willing to lose their horses to the claim box in order to get there.

But on the other hand, there are, as always, connections desperate to have a problem taken off their hands. To me, determining the motive behind the drop is the key in determining whether the race is playable. Unfortunately, it's often a guessing game.

With all of the various conditional claiming conditions, it can also sometimes be a challenge just determining whether a move is really a significant drop at all. How, for example, does a 25K NW2 lifetime compare to an open 15K claimer? This is one of the many ways that Formulator can help, as one can view the past performances of all of the horses your subject horse has competed against in its last five races.

In the second, A Zero Trap was 4-5 dropping to an open 7500 claimer off a second place finish in a 12,500 affair limited to horses who hadn't won in the last six months. Is that really a class drop? I didn't like that fact that he was dropped, by trainer Joe Imperio, to that prior 12.5K level two races after being taken for 25K in the first place. So I would have bet against him if I'd found anyone I liked. A Zero Trap finished sixth.

But in the third, there was no doubt that Formal King was dropping in class; drastically, in for 20K in his first race, for ~~Richard Dutrow~~ Juan Rodriguez, since running second in a NW3x allowance at Monmouth in June. I thought this one demanded a skeptical pose, for a variety of reasons but mostly out of fear as to his soundness. But Formal Gold sprinted to the lead and, though hardly dominant, was never seriously challenged (and he went unclaimed). I ran second and third, if you care.

The Fall Highweight Handicap, graded again, was taken by Cherokee Country ($26.20) - a son of Yonaguska, the leading sire in Louisiana; and it's his second stakes winner of the year, after Illinois Derby winner Musket Man.

Gary Sciacca took the 9th with Classofsixtythree ($12.20); this barn was also a close second with 56-1 Strummer on Wednesday.

- I've seen Sonic Youth a number of times over a number of years....in fact, I'd just seen them Saturday night at Terminal 5. But seeing them at the far more intimate Music Hall of Williamsburg, with its crystal clear sound (the best system in the city that I've heard), was a whole other ballgame. Don't remember last time I'd seen them at such a small space; and in a way, I feel like I've now really seen them live. They performed all of their superb latest release, The Eternal, which came out on Matador earlier this year, threw in a few songs from Daydream Nation, and delighted their old-time fans by closing with Death Valley '69 from their album Bad Moon Rising, released on Homestead nearly 25 years ago.

No Silver Rush

noreply@blogger.com (alan) — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 12:54:00 +0000

“We have five months to collect that $200 million,” says Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver in the NY Times article which appears in the print edition today (and which was leaked online yesterday). Not the first time I've heard Silver make the point that the decision as to who exactly the money comes from (and some bidders are offering more up front) is not his top priority at a time when legislative leaders and governor Paterson are locked in a battle over a Deficit Reduction Plan. And that matter is not going very well at all.

The hangup over how to close the budget gap is apparently midyear cuts in education that Senators of both parties oppose....but let me ask you this: If these guys can't agree on what is reported to be no more than around a half billion dollars of the $3.2 billion gap that Paterson is trying to close, how are they possibly going to deal with a budget gap of $10 billion or more in the next fiscal year which begins in April? That debate will start soon after this one, and I'd guess that the odds are pretty good that we'll hear the first serious discussion in the legislature of expanded gambling in the form of table games at racinos....and, eventually, a full-blown casino at Belmont.

Meanwhile, the Big A fiasco goes on; and while the Times calls it a "long-running drama," it long ago turned to farce. This article is one of those which mostly summarizes what we already know - the Senate favors Aqueduct Entertainment Group, while the Governor fancies SL Green, "or maybe Delaware North." But we're also told that Paterson's chief counsel Peter Kiernan is taking heat for the chaotic and chameleon-like nature of the process, in which bidders have not only been permitted, but encouraged, if not required, to make changes to its offers.

“There are no parameters,” said Assemblyman J. Gary Pretlow, a Westchester Democrat who is chairman of the Assembly’s Committee on Racing and Wagering. “The problem is that the process was flawed from its inception. Everyone should have been operating with common guidelines.”

Also interesting in this article is the implication that Malcolm Smith is indeed the driving force behind the Senate's preference for AEG; that despite his obvious connections to the group which were highlighted in the press from the very first day it stepped forward to express interest. And while Smith categorically denied any favoritism or personal interest in a racino job (at least in the online article yesterday....his quote to that effect is now curiously deleted in both the online and print versions), it just certainly seems quite the coincidence, and a brazen disregard for appearance, that he would just happen to land on the group as his top choice.

Senator Eric Adams, a Brooklyn Democrat who chairs the Senate’s Racing, Gaming and Wagering Committee, said on Monday that Senator John L. Sampson, the Democrats’ leader, “is comfortable with A.E.G.,” but could “live with any of the others.”

“We don’t want to go in there and say, ‘Listen. This is the only person we’re going with and that’s it.’ We want to get this resolved, and we need the money in the budget.”

A slight softening in the Senate's position perhaps; still, a decision before New Year's is starting to seem unlikely.

- Deliberations in the Bruno trial begin today, and there's speculation that it may not take long. The summations took place yesterday; the prosecution couldn't do any better than comparing Joe to Tiny, the schoolyard bully. Seems a bit lame. Defense attorney Abbe Lowell turned that around by telling the jury: "..Tiny wasn’t alone. The principal was there. The teacher was there. The school superintendent was there…” This is a good summary of the key points that the jury will consider, and the arguments presented in court for and against them.

Capital At Risk

noreply@blogger.com (alan) — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 05:02:00 +0000

A couple of huge favorites in the middle of Sunday's card at the Big A. And though they were both easily victorious, to me they still beg the question of who exactly bets on horses like these at such prohibitive odds? And who exactly are "they" in these cases? Is it the whales? Or the cumulative effect of relatively unsophisticated small-timers piling onto a sure thing which may not look that sure to smart guys like us. Sure, Wild News ($2.90) had run very well in her debut. But that came on a sloppy track that her 388 Tomlinson suggested she may like; and there were several first time starters from capable first-out barns. I myself couldn't imagine betting $200 to win $90 on this one (though I wouldn't mind having the exacta, with 43-1 EZ Passer, at $70.50. Wild News is by Forest Wildcat, out of a winless Seattle Slew mare whose own dam is a half-sister to the Belmont winner Bet Twice.

Capitalism at Risk, the ultimate hunch bet for the tea party set, finished 7th; though Fox News showed the clip of when she ran second in her debut instead.

Idle Gossip ($2.70) was even more imponderable at an even cheaper price. Last seen running 4th at Saratoga, her fifth effort in state-bred maiden specials, here she was dropping into 16K maiden claimers in her first race in ten weeks, for trainer Carlos Martin. I know, she won for fun and might look easy in retrospect. But the drop in class has to raise questions; little surprise that she went unclaimed. (And how many times do you see a 1-4 shot head a $1,262 triple?)

- Empire Maker is down to $50,000 in 2010, from $75,000 this year. And this is a successful sire, at least on the track. He's the leading third crop sire, 15th on the overall sire list, with seven stakes winners. However, in the sales ring in this down market, his yearlings have gone from an average of $251,000 to $135,000. That didn't leave much of a profit margin for buyers. Empire Maker will now be available for half of the $100,000 he stood for in 2004.

- Mike Smith is coming to the Big A to ride Stardom Bound in her return to the races in the G1 Gazelle on Saturday.

Swift Defense, Bad Memories

noreply@blogger.com (alan) — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 16:22:00 +0000

The testimony phase of the Bruno trial fizzled to an anticlimax on Friday with the announcement that the former Senate Majority Leader will not take the stand in his own defense. “I’m satisfied that all that has been said, has been said."

“We did what we were supposed to and earned our pay. I’m a businessman who was in a part-time legislative position. I had a perfect right to do business based on my experience and background." [Troy Record]

The defense testimony consisted of seven witness, and was seemingly all over and done with before one could say Jared Abbruzzese.

Most of the defense witnesses, who took up only a single afternoon of what has been a nearly three-week trial, were business partners and friends of the former senator, who collectively painted Mr. Bruno as an honest public servant and hardworking business executive who was eager to help others. [NY Times]

You can read accounts of the defense testimony in the abovelinkedto articles in the Times and Troy Record among other places; but barely a word about it in the Albany Times Union; not even in their blog devoted entirely to the subject.

The paper has never been a friend of Bruno's as you may recall, and as the Senator was always quick to point out. You many remember its role in the Troopergate scandal. You can probably figure out where I stand on Bruno, but let's be honest here. The Times Union's coverage of the trial has, in my opinion, been blatantly one-sided; in one article, reporter Robert Gavin went so far as to debunk testimony favorable to the defense.

I don't know how favorable Abbruzzese's testimony, the most headline-worthy of which was regarding his beat-down at the hands of Donald Trump, will be for the prosecution. He testified that the reason why nobody knew what Bruno was doing to earn his money was because he wasn't hired to do anything in particular.

"I wanted him for his Rolodex," Abbruzzese said, though he rejected Bruno's initial request for $30,000 a month.

The senator guided him on improving his skills in dealing with people, had no fixed consulting schedule and didn't produce any written work, he said. [WCBS-TV]

The prosecution went to great lengths to establish that Bruno's duties were mysterious. But here, Abbruzzese gave the jury a simple reason to reasonably doubt that the arrangements were as sinister and improper as the prosecution suggested. He also pointed out that the grants to Evident were initiated three years before Bruno was hired (and he complained that the state did not fully meet its commitment to the firm).

Better for the prosecution perhaps is the testimony from Bruno's former secretary that the Senator blithely conducted his personal business on government time. The Daily News reported on Nov 11 the following regarding Judge Gary Sharpe.

He blasted prosecutors for repeatedly suggesting potential quid pro quos when the case is really about whether Bruno mixed private business interests with public matters - and whether he failed to disclose his business interests.

Ms. Stackrow would seem to have firmly established the former; and the prosecution did produce union officials who testified that Bruno did not disclose his ties to Wright. In fact, one witness testified that Bruno's employment status was changed from consultant to part-time employee so that he did not have to. One defense witness was reported to have testified that Bruno's employment with Wright was "common knowledge." Still, I don't see where the defense otherwise effectively countered these points, unless it did so in the cross-examinations and the Times Union didn't report it. Summations are Monday. As for a guess on the verdict, I really have no idea. Any legal eagles out there with an opinion?

- With Abbruzzese's appearance no doubt sparking (bad) memories of Empire Racing, on the same day (as duly noted by several commenters), Tom Precious reported that AEG, in an obvious attempt to sabotage its rival, has circulated emails showing that some former Empire officials, including its former CEO Jeff Perlee, stand to reap rewards should SL Green be awarded the racino prize at the Big A (Abbruzzese also amongst them according to a couple of readers). Such an arrangement was hinted at in the company's lawsuit filed against Delaware North earlier this year. As you very well may recall (especially if you've been hanging around this site for the past few years), Perlee directed Empire's cynically deceptive and negative campaign to win the racing franchise, conspiring to sell out New York's simulcast signal to Magna and Churchill, and, as this horseman pointed out, deceiving the New York horsemen (with help from duplicitous directors like West Point Thoroughbred president Terry Finley) into gaining its backing. If you were already queasy about the presence of the Seminole tribe on the SL Green team due to its brazen flouting of the law in Florida, the news that Perlee stands to make $100,000 if SL Green gets the nod should make you want to puke.

Nothing to Remember

noreply@blogger.com (alan) — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 19:30:00 +0000

I wrote the other day about the sharp memory that the prosecution witnesses in the Joe Bruno trial seem to have. And on Wednesday, Wayne Barr, a former NYRA board member and business partner of Jared Abbruzzese (and of Bruno in a breeding partnership), testified that he clearly remembered that he could not remember - and in fact, never really knew - exactly what it was that the former Senate Majority Leader actually did to earn those hundreds of thousands in consulting dollars from companies owned or controlled by Abbruzzese.

It was on Mr. Abbruzzese’s orders, according to testimony offered by witnesses on Wednesday, that Motient and TerreStar hired Mr. Bruno, granting him lucrative retainers worth thousands of dollars a month.

Mr. Abbruzzese also paid Mr. Bruno $100,000 through two other businesses he ran, Capital and Technology Advisors and Communication Technology Advisors, according to evidence and testimony.

Yet Mr. Abbruzzese’s partner, Wayne Barr Jr., could not describe what Mr. Bruno did for the companies. “I am not aware of it,” he testified.
....
His final contract, with TerreStar, began in July 2005. But officials there were unclear at the time about what Mr. Bruno’s duties would be.

“Do you know anything that Senator Bruno does?” Mr. Macklin wrote to Christopher W. Downie, a senior executive. Mr. Downie forwarded the e-mail message to Mr. Abbruzzese.

“Need some help here pls,” he wrote. [NY Times]

The prosecution is attempting to tie the lucrative consulting gigs to the grants totaling $500,000 that Bruno secured for Abbruzzese's Evident Technologies, payments considered to be highly unusual in the case of for-profit companies as I detailed here at the time.

I suppose the fact that Abbruzzese later sought the NY racing franchise for Empire Racing is not relevant to this particular case. However, a horse that Bruno sold to Abbruzzese is.

The horse deal came into focus Wednesday when prosecutors called witnesses who testified that a horse Abbruzzese purchased from Bruno for $80,000 was practically worthless. Prosecutors allege Abbruzzese paid an inflated price to make up for Bruno's being terminated from the payroll of Motient Corp. in August 2005, two months into a six-month contract that could have netted him an additional $80,000. [Albany Times-Union]

- The Queens Courier reports today that NYRA is apparently trying to bag the Aqueduct Flea Market....again. A couple of years ago, NYRA claimed that there was not enough parking to accommodate the market.

“There just won’t be room for it,” said Dan Silver, a NYRA spokesman. “It was a nice thing to have, but the importance of Video Lottery Terminals to New York racing and New York State as a whole dwarfs any money generated from the flea market.” [Queens Courier]

Of course, that's easy for him to say; he's not struggling to make a living wage by peddling goods in a parking lot. Seems as if the local Community Board is not sympathetic to the flea market either, citing a counterfeit goods raid in 2004 (well, it is a flea market after all), and the clutter.

“Anyone who goes past Rockaway Boulevard after the market shuts down can see the absolute mess left there at the end of the day."

Actually, the mess fits in rather well with the decrepit racing plant that sits behind it; not to mention the filthy netting that separates it from the adjacent Home Depot.

- Still no agreement on Governor Paterson's deficit reduction plan, and the governor today proposed that lawmakers are too scared to make the spending cuts necessary to address the fiscal crisis that threatens the state's ability to pay its bills next month. [Daily Politics] He singled out Senate Finance Committee Chairman Carl Kruger and his contention that the state could collect some $1.6 billion a year by collecting taxes on cigarettes sold on Indian reservations.

I'm going far beyond the normal scope of this blog here, but feel compelled to point out the following. The other day, Elizabeth Benjamin linked to Richard Lipsky's Neighborhood Retail Alliance blog, where it was claimed that Kruger's stance was backed up by testimony in 2005 by Deputy Commissioner William Comiskey of the State Department of Taxation and Finance that the Indian retail outlets bought 47 million cartons of untaxed cigarettes in that year alone. Based on that figure, Lipsky did some math to claim that Kruger is right, and he proceeded to ridicule the governor and members of the press who blithely dismissed his contentions out of hand. However, Lipsky conveniently ignored testimony by Comiskey just last month (pdf), in which he noted that the sales have declined every year since then, and that the "final sales for 2009 will reflect a continued decline." Comiskey went on to note that the state could have collected $825 million, half of Kruger's claim, if every pack had been stamped and taxed. However, he went on to explain (on page 4 of the abovelinkedto document if you're interested) why the actual amount would be far, far less; under $100 million annually in fact. Sorry for the tangent, but just wanted to set the record straight.

Aqueduct Notes

noreply@blogger.com (alan) — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 12:35:00 +0000

Mike Hushion has won six races in a row at the Big A - and seven overall when you add Saratoga Russell, who won at Penn National last week. And there he is, right on top of Thursday's card, with the one horse in the first. Bohemia Street (4-1) moves up in class and stays on dirt after winning an off-the-turf affair at Belmont. The italics on second place finisher Golden Guska tell you that that horse came back to win its subsequent race; what it doesn't tell you, and what you need Formulator (or a particularly acute memory) to know, is that he did so only after dropping into 15K state-bred claimers. Nor that the 3rd through 7th place finishers didn't fare so well in their subsequent efforts. Knowing that could be the key to success....or it could be the too-much-information that has you regretting that you read this post. Wild Conga (3-1) goes for another hot barn, that of Bill Badgett, four for nine and two seconds at the meet thus far.

Trainer Patrick Reynolds had won just four of 76 starters this year, and was winless in 20 starts dating back to July. So you're excused if you did not have the Reynolds early double for $137 at Aqueduct yesterday. Funny how we see that work out on a fairly regular basis.

Chad Brown took his sixth race from nine starters (plus two seconds) at the meet with Distant Strike ($4.90) in the 4th.

Pletcher took the Flitalong Stakes with his impressive three-year old filly West Ocean, stretching out and taking her third in a row, in her 4th career start. The Toddster is the Big A's leading trainer with nine wins from 27 starters. This filly is by Elusive Quality, out of Ocean Drive, a stakes winner on the turf herself and a half-sister to the popular graded stakes winner Sun King.

Trial and Tribulations

noreply@blogger.com (alan) — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 17:33:00 +0000

- Reader jk mentioned Monday's developments at Joe Bruno's trial, which is entering its third week. The Albany Times-Union has a dedicated site, a blog I suppose, set up to cover the trial, and it's an excellent resource with which to follow it if you are so inclined. Whether or not this will indeed prove to be a cautionary tale to lawmakers making decisions such as the one regarding Aqueduct as jk contends remains to be seen. The legal concept under which the prosecution is operating is considered to be a murky one, so the outcome, and the ultimate lesson, in certainly in doubt. The prosecution has presented a wide array of witnesses to bolster their accusation that the former Senate Majority Leader used his position and influence to earn some $3.2 million as a private consultant, thus depriving the public of his honest services. And some feel that testimony such as this and this, though it may not have impressed the judge, has already provided a window into the squalid doings in the state capitol, no matter what the verdict turns out to be.

I've been struck that many, though not all, of the witnesses called to testify against Bruno seem to have such lucid memories of events that date back as far as 10 years ago or more. You know how sometimes people conveniently just can't seem to recall things on the witness stand. Made me think that maybe some people don't seem to care for Joe....and then on Monday there was the story that jk linked to about Patricia Stackrow, his former secretary's, telling the court that she stole from Bruno in “retaliation for the way he treated me at the time,” calling it demeaning and degrading. As I mentioned in the comments section, I don't understand why the prosecution would want to introduce that; seems like fodder for the defense to impugn her testimony on the grounds that she bears a personal grudge. (I'm thinking that maybe she's not alone.) Her testimony of how she spent ample time on his consulting businesses would, I believe, be particularly damaging given that the judge has emphasized the matter of Bruno's alleged mixing of his private business with his senatorial duties as a key part of the case. And the precedent would seem ominous for Bruno as well.

With the legislature in special session as Governor Paterson prods them to agree on a deficit reduction plan (and with Albany dysfunction on full display), one might think that further developments on the Big A are unlikely at this time. On the other hand, perhaps the decision will come when we least expect it?

The governor's approval ratings actually inched up, to 33% from 27%, in the latest Siena poll; but, on the other hand, he now trails Andrew Cuomo in a hypothetical primary race by some 59 points, wow. The margin had been 50 points -- 70 percent to 20 percent -- between the two Democrats in the last Siena poll a month ago. [Buffalo News]

The Times reported on Monday that the Attorney General is already considering his options for a running mate. I was rather surprised to read that he would consider William Thompson as was reported. The City Comptroller may have run close to Mayor Bloomberg, but he brought absolutely nothing to the table in my opinion. I believe that the close margin was almost entirely due to anger over the Mayor's term limits ploy. Thompson ran a campaign that many considered to be dysfunctional.....so, on second thought, maybe he'd fit right in.

A Decision By Horseplayers

noreply@blogger.com (alan) — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 01:06:00 +0000

Here's a great post on Pull the Pocket about Bill Belichick's ultimately ill-fated decision to go for it on a 4th down deep in the Pats' own territory last night, comparing it to a "horseplayer decision."

Fortunately, we can mess around and check the numbers, like a bettor does when making a value decision on a horse in the 4th. What would you have bet [on] the Patriots before the play? What would you have bet on Indy to win if they are stopped. What would you have bet on Indy if they receive the ball on a punt instead? What would you have bet [on] the Pats, if Indy scores quickly and they needed a field goal to win?

Speaking with a professional bettor who runs these numbers better than I can, said "He [Belichick] made the right call because the odds favored him. It was probably around 60-40 call - at the very least a coin flip - and nothing out of the ordinary if you run the numbers." In effect, Belichick made a value bet.

(My take is that is was a bold ploy by a team with not that much to lose considering the quality of the divisional foes chasing them. You play to win the game, as some guy once said, and Belichick was two yards away from winning this one. So, while I can't stand the guy, I don't at all disagree with the move.)

The choice between Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta may not be a "horseplayer decision" in the same sense since the deciders have nothing to win or lose themselves. However, it is a decision to be made by horseplayers; because, after all, I don't know of a single turf writer or voting employee of the Racing Form or NTRA who is not a horseplayer him or herself, do you? And this idea that there should be an option to vote for both of them is just plain unbecoming to our breed. Like betting a quinella, and what self-respecting player does that anymore? (Uh oh, just got myself in trouble.)

So, cut the crap and just decide on one or the other. Either of them will do the title of Horse of the Year proud, and neither's accomplishments will be diminished if they lose. Quit waffling, just be a man (Uh oh, probably just got myself in trouble again!), and vote for one of the distinguished ladies.

- Mike Watchmaker agrees with the above opinion, but adds: Rachel Alexandra should not be penalized for not competing in the Breeders' Cup. [DRF, subscription]

Sure, it would have been nice if Rachel Alexandra was there. And yes, the Breeders' Cup is always a fantastic event no matter who is or isn't there. But just because the Breeders' Cup markets itself as a "World Championship" event, that doesn't make it so. It has never been a requirement that you had to run in the Breeders' Cup in order to win a championship, and here's hoping that it never becomes one.

Here, I respectfully disagree with the esteemed Racing Form columnist. Is it a "requirement," as in a "prerequisite?" No, certainly not. However, once the Triple Crown has concluded, and even before so for the horses not involved, all we hear is owners and trainers plotting the interim period before the Breeders' Cup with that event in mind. And this has effectively ruined the summer and fall seasons during which championships used to be determined, turning it into a long series of prep races (the lame Win And Yer In concept notwithstanding). So as long as the Breeders' Cup exists and bills itself as a championship event, it better damn well be a crucial determinant of the year-end awards. I believe that some judicial activism on the part of the voters to encourage intransigent owners who hold out for no other reason than to serve their own interests and ego is not only appropriate, but demanded. Otherwise, we might as well scrap the whole idea of a World Championship event, and go back to the old way which, by the way, served us quite well during the glory days of the sport.

Aqueduct Notes

noreply@blogger.com (alan) — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 15:30:00 +0000

Been a good week for Pletcher with five winners at the Big A, including Irving Rules ($8.30) in the 7th on Saturday. I think I've mentioned that the Toddster fares pretty well with maiden claimers, a category one might not associate him with - he's 28% (28 for 100) over the last year.

Chad Brown is five for eight at the meet after Saginaw won the off-the-turf 8th. There were 11 scratches in this race leaving five runners, and this type of affair is Exhibit A in my argument in favor of synthetic tracks. While I accept all the arguments regarding the problems caused by the surfaces with respect to determining Eclipse Awards, the 99% of Saturday cards that are not Breeders' Cup days or Super Saturdays are the bread and butter of the sport, and I still don't see why they wouldn't be better off with fast tracks and without boring speed biases on a daily basis.

Mike Hushion had two more winners on Friday, and is now six for eight at the meet.

Two winners on Saturday for David Jacobson. This is definitely one of the more interesting barns to follow as we go through the winter months. Doesn't hesitate to drop them to a level where they can win; Midwatch ($13.60), a horse over whom he was suspended for a drug positive last month, was dropping from 16K to $7500, and won for the first time ever on dirt. Jacobson also is not at all gun shy when it comes to stepping up to pay the big bucks for claims, and we've seen more than just a few of those turn out to be expensive busts. African King ($8.90) is not one of those; taken for 32K at Calder last December, this three-year old gelded son of Black Mambo was winning his fifth race in six tries since (plus a second) (and the prior one in the name of Diane Balsamo while he was serving the aforementioned suspension), earning $101,000 in the process. African King has found a happy home in the lucrative 16K Starters Handicap class with its $42,000 purse; and would seem to have a ways to go there having carried just 116 pounds on Saturday.

Consequences

noreply@blogger.com (alan) — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 16:31:00 +0000

Just want to clarify pursuant to a comment on the last post, that I've never backed AEG's bid on this blog. In fact, I've never endorsed any particular bid, partly because of the lack of transparency which has denied us all the opportunity to fully evaluate them for ourselves; and partly because I don't really care anymore. I mean, for God's sake, just select someone and get on with it. I think that all of the groups are fully capable of running a racino at Aqueduct with at least an acceptable level of competence. It's not a particularly complicated business model, you or I could probably do it. And I honestly just don't know which model - slots in a box or a grander complex - is more appropriate for the locale. Besides, I believe that Belmont will eventually be the site of a casino which will make Aqueduct irrelevant and/or defunct (if it ever gets built).

But at this point, it seems obvious what's going on, and I would personally be outraged if the Senate Democratic leadership manages to prevail in what seems an all-too-obvious campaign to provide Malcolm Smith with a glorious send-off to easy street on Rockaway Boulevard. Perhaps AEG really has the best bid. Maybe they are truly the best choice for the racing industry, the horsemen, the fans, the community, and the state. But the state had better damn well be prepared to open up the books to demonstrate that if they are selected; show us all of the documents, and explain to us exactly why. Or else.......what? I dunno, I guess the usual consequences that the voters of New York dole out to their elected representatives for selling them out to their own self-interests. We'll re-elect them. That'll show them.

Two Down To Three? (Updated)

noreply@blogger.com (alan) — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 18:39:00 +0000

Governor Paterson is slated to meet in private with Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver and Senate Majority Leader John Sampson in Manhattan at 2:30 today to discuss the Aqueduct bidding....and Tom Precious reports on Bloodhorse.com that we're down to three - AEG, SL Green, and Delaware North. Or maybe I should say, up to three, since Crain's New York earlier in the week reported that it was down to two - Penn National and SL Green.

The governor is said to be favoring the bid by SL Green and Hard Rock, while Senate Democratic leaders have been pushing Aqueduct Entertainment Group, which is a consortium of Las Vegas casino company Navegante Group, construction companies, and a group tied to the Rev. Floyd Flake, a former Queens congressman who is close to Senate President Malcolm Smith. Silver, the Assembly leader, has not, as is often his negotiating style, made crystal clear his choice, but in the past he favored Delaware North. [Bloodhorse.com]

Each of these three latest presumed front-runners comes with its own baggage of course - AEG would be seen as a political favor for Senator Malcolm Smith, and SL Green includes the Seminole tribe which is under fire for defiantly operating table games in Florida despite their being illegal under state law. If Delaware North gets the nod, many will wonder if this trip was really necessary, and why the state simply could not have re-negotiated their prior deal once they couldn't come up with the inflated down payment.

Precious writes that "a decision could come later in the day." Maybe. Or perhaps Steve Wynn will call and say he was just kidding and he wants back in. It's just hard to take any of this seriously at this stage, so we'll just stay tuned.

[UPDATE: I was told at around 4:30 that the meeting broke off with no decision reached.]

- There are rumblings in the Florida legislature now to take on the intransigent Seminoles by simply opening the entire state to full-fledged casinos. The tribe has pissed off some formerly anti-gambling Republican lawmakers to the point where they could now be ready to authorize a full-fledged assault. (Nice to see the GOP sticking to their ideological guns. Considering the passionate resistance they have put up to gambling in Florida in the past, this seems comparable to the Party of No agreeing to a single payer system with Al Franken as Health Care Czar.)

“Florida is a gaming state, No. 6 in the nation,” said State Rep. Bill Galvano, R-Bradenton, chairman of the Select Committee on Seminole Indian Compact Review. “Right now we have all of the worst of gaming and none of the best.”
....
“As anti-gaming as I was, it’s here, and it’s not going away,” said Rep. Ellyn Bogdanoff, R-Fort Lauderdale. “You go to Plan B, which is free market.”

Rep. Alan Hays, R-Umatilla, said “We can compete head on with the tribe. We need to say absolutely no to this compact — period.” [News-Press]

Coda (Adagio)

noreply@blogger.com (alan) — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 11:34:00 +0000

Rap Tale was sold at Fasig Tipton on Tuesday night for $135,000. Claimed for $25,000 from Edward P. Evans, Rap Tale earned some $200,000 on the racetrack for Kasey K Racing Stable. Not too shabby I'd say. Especially considering that she wasn't that fast. In fact, as several haters were quick to point out here (and as I readily agreed), she was rather slow. Her career high Beyer was 78. But she was brilliantly managed by my buddy Bob and trainer Bruce Brown. Even I had my doubts about her campaign at times; but the plan all along was to somehow earn some black type to go along with her sterling pedigree and sell her at auction, and it was executed to perfection. After a couple of frustrating near misses at the Big A, Rap Tale ran second in the Candy Eclair at Monmouth (with a 67 fig), and won a restricted stakes on the grass at Colonial (72). She won seven races in 29 career starts. All in all, not bad for a horse that some here suggested should be running in 4K claimers at Penn National (ha ha ha ha, imagine that).

Rap Tale was sold to an owner from Australia, where her sire, Tale of the Cat, is quite popular. With her breeding - she's out of a Pleasant Tap mare who's a half-sister to the graded stakes winners Another Review, Dance Colony, and No Review - she certainly has the potential to be a better broodmare than she was a race horse. Though that wasn't really too bad after all as it turned out.

- Excuse the shameless ~~inter~~intrafamily promotion, but just returning the favor. Please take a moment to check out the Head Chef's Grapes and Greens blog. The subject matter is vegetarian/flexitarian food and wine pairings, and there are recipes within that will appeal to all of you red meat eaters (even myself) as well. And, if your feel so inclined, please take a moment to leave a comment too, and tell her I said hi (since I'm not speaking to her for posting my picture).

- And a brief music note....Calling all R.E.M. fans: Make sure to check out Live At The Olympia: 39 Songs, recorded in 2007 during a five night working rehearsal in Dublin. I often find that veteran bands, when playing old material, merely go through the motions. But here, the band breathes new life into classic material going all the way back to their Chronic Town EP from 1982; as well as songs from my personal favorite R.E.M. album, Fables of the Reconstruction.

Jokes

noreply@blogger.com (alan) — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 23:17:00 +0000

- Zensational, appropriately out of the dam Joke, has been retired. At least Ahmed Zayat is being honest about it. "Having already won three Grade 1 races, we feel that he will be more valuable at stud." [DRF]

And there you go, in 17 brief words, just about everything that is wrong with this sport. Here's a horse who proved absolutely nothing, defeating weak Grade 1 fields on synthetic surfaces, and flopping miserably the only time he was really put to a test. Bob Baffert said: "He's incredible; he's a beast....He's one of the three best horses I've ever trained." [BRIS] What a bunch of fucking crap; I wouldn't say he was better than Midnight Lute, no less Point Given, Silver Charm, Real Quiet, Silverbulletday, Congaree, or even Captain Steve or War Emblem for that matter.

- The local Queens Courier has some quotes from sources with "intimate" knowledge of the Aqueduct bidding process who seem to think the whole thing is a joke.

“It seems like there’s something new every day,” said one source. “I’ve been involved in several deals involving a government, and I’ve never seen anything like this,” said another.

“People are laughing. It’s as if the State is saying, ‘Hey, we don’t want to give this guy the bid, so everybody match him,’” one of the sources explained.

“I’m not surprised Wynn pulled out,” said another. “He’s got bigger deals going on and a last-minute change like this complicates things.”

The Seeking Alpha blog explains how it's Wynn that's doing the laughing.

Aqueduct Notes

noreply@blogger.com (alan) — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 03:05:00 +0000

I don't know about that DQ in the second at the Big A on Wednesday. Sure, Run to Grand Ave., who had a nightmare trip from the start, lugged in and brushed Stormin Bud, but the contact didn't seen that severe; in fact, I didn't detect anything amiss watching the race from the pan shot the first time. The offended horse barely broke stride, and didn't appear to be nearly impeded enough to have made a difference in the result. I don't usually disagree with the NYRA stewards on these things, but this one seemed kinda weak. Tough break for trainer Bruce Levine, continuing his Belmont success with a couple of winners from his first eight starters at the Big A, including the impressive Nashua winner Buddy's Saint (who was taken down himself in his debut and was thus winning a Grade 2 stakes as a maiden).

Buddy's Saint earned a Beyer of 101, and is headed for the two-turn Remsen on the Cigar Mile card. He's from the only crop of the ill-fated Saint Liam, one of 98 foals. I thought it was his first stakes winner, but, as a dead stallion, he doesn't get a Stallion Register page. Bloodhorse.com's Maiden Watch wrote on Nov 2 that his 44 runners have made 100 total starts, recording 12 wins, 8 seconds, 16 thirds, and $468,211. And a peek at the rookie sire list shows that he ranks #11 on the rookie sire list (and that he has two stakes winners, so there you go).

"I bought him with two turns in mind," Levine told the Form; his next start will be the mile and an eighth Remsen on Cigar Mile day. Buddy's Saint is out of Tuzia, a stakes winning Blushing John mare who's a half sister to the 2003 Preakness runner-up Midway Road. And this is the distaff family of the multiple Grade 1 winning Island Fashion, who took the Alabama, also in 2003. Levine said the owner "won't sell," but we'll see if he romps in the Remsen. Personally, I think you gotta be nuts, or very very rich, to not cash out at this stage if you can.

- Just as it's usually easy to see good things in the past performances of horses after they win, so too can you sometimes look at a prohibitive favorite who ran awful and say "what were they thinking?" I believe you can say that about Sky's the Limit, an unbelievable .55-to-1 in his first race against winners in the 8th. Classic case here of the public going overboard on a well-bred horse coming off a maiden win with a gaudy Beyer. Except that this one's not that well-bred - the son of Sky Mesa sold for half his stallion's $30K stud fee at sale; and his Beyer, though solid at 94, hardly outclassed this field. Rodman ($12.60) had missed by just a nose at this level in his last with a 92; he is the third winner in four starts at the Big A for trainer Mike Hushion. This barn had a hot Saratoga and a chilly Belmont, but started heating up towards the end of the latter and is now 6-2-1 with his last 14, and both of those seconds were by a head.

The People First

noreply@blogger.com (alan) — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 12:40:00 +0000

Crain's New York Business reported on Monday that the Big A sweepstakes is now a 2-horse race between Penn National and SL Green; that according to a "source close to the process." Not sure how any such conclusions can be drawn at this particular time considering that the bidders were ~~invited~~ encouraged to submit revised financial proposals, with the deadline passing just last Friday. Especially since, according to Crain's, all five groups agreed to the governor's latest request for a $200 million up-front payment.

The article discusses reservations about each of those presumed frontrunners. Penn National is said to have "checkered dealings with organized labor."

State officials are likely to be concerned by Penn's cozy relationship with the Seafarers Entertainment and Allied Trades Union. Labor insiders charge that Penn and the Seafarers agree to substandard contracts in order to boost the company's reputation as a responsible employer and keep other unions at bay. Penn denies this.

And SL Green is said to be susceptible to a "continued deterioration in the commercial office market."

“There's a little bit of trepidation about why it makes sense for an office-focused landlord to get into a racino development deal,” says Michael Knott, a senior analyst at Green Street Advisors. “It's a little bit of a head-scratcher.”

Meanwhile, Governor Paterson addressed a rare joint session of the Legislature to implore lawmakers to make the necessary spending cuts to address a looming budget deficit of some $3-$4 billion, depending on who you believe. The governor told lawmakers that, without taking action the state will "have challenges to our State’s finances and to our cash flow in 4 1/2 weeks....Frankly, we are running out of money."

"I will mortgage my political career on this plan, but I will not mortgage the state of New York." [Capitol Confidential]

Good line. Not to minimize the severity of the crisis, but the governor was also no doubt continuing his determined drive to revive his political fortunes. Now, Paterson has hired veteran Clintonite Harold Ickes, who gives his campaign credibility and who, according to Ben Smith of Politico, has deep roots in labor and his role will be to keep them on board.

Not only does Paterson continue to raise campaign cash, but he's spending it too. Have you seen his campaign ads?

I'm telling you man, this guy is too much, I'm totally on board. This is one of two TV ads which are part of a “substantial, extended and statewide” ad run featuring the slogan “Governor Paterson: The People First.” The White House may have done better to let sleeping dogs lie.

Senate Democrats, feeling Republican footsteps in the wake of that party's showing in two county executive races last week, will be reluctant to agree during today's extraordinary legislative session to the education and healthcare cuts that the governor and his staff insist are necessary at this time. Senate Finance Committee chairman Carl Kruger, who recently suggested that the governor was exaggerating the deficit to benefit himself politically, is offering an alternative plan of one-shot type savings, plus a proposed expansion of hours at the state's racinos. Paterson's budget director Robert Megna met with legislative leaders on Monday and declared: “I didn’t think it was possible....but I’m more depressed than when I walked in.” He should check out those campaign ads, that should cheer him up.