The TurkEU Blog

Swedish Bank SEB Bullish on Turkey

2012-03-07T15:06:00.002+01:00

I just got a newsletter from my bank - the large Swedish bank SEB - which contained an extremely bullish article on Turkey. The title of the piece (in translation) is indicative: "Turkey: Soon among the 12 largest."

Their analyst, Mats Olausson, believes that "Turkey is probably the country in Europe with the highest growth potential in the coming decade."The piece emphasizes high growth, political stability, inflation under control (down to single digits from previous 70% rates), a well-managed and attractive financial sector.

For those of you who read Swedish, here is a link to the original piece. I think that it should be accessible also to people who are not SEB clients but let me know if the link doesn't work.

French Court strikes down Armenian genocide denial law

2012-02-29T14:08:00.000+01:00

Today's New York Times reports:

The French Constitutional Council on Tuesday struck down a draft law that would have criminalized the denial of an Armenian genocide by the Ottoman Turks, legislation that has soured relations between France and Turkey.

Sarkozy has vowed to continue to pursue the issue, however, so it is not dead yet. And whatever political gains he was hoping for in view of the upcoming presidential elections, he has won them despite the Council's vote.

My position on the issue is quite simply that it is a matter for serious historians. Neither Turkey nor France ought to attempt to determine the factual status or correct interpretation of the tragic events at the bottom of the controversy by means of legislation.

Slick EU video supporting enlargement

2012-02-25T20:53:00.002+01:00

The European Commission has prepared a one-minute video that clearly aims at enhancing public attitudes toward South-Eastern Europe, including Turkey. In the very well-produced video, we are faced with images of modern, historic, and serene landscapes and cities that may well be taken from EU capitals and countries. Upon them are superimposed questions, like: "Sweden?" and correct answers: "Montenegro".

Over images of a bustling city with skyskrapers, the text asks "Germany?" and answers "Turkey." With respect to the latter, I don't think this is anywhere near enough to turn public opinion around while national political leaders in many capitals play politics with the question of Turkish membership, but I liked the video. High production value, and nice ending slogan: "So similar. So different." Isn't that what the EU is about? Unity in diversity?

Tribute to Anthony Shadid of the NYT

2012-02-20T16:06:00.000+01:00

I was saddened to read this morning that NYT reporter Anthony Shadid died last Thursday. Apparently, he suffered a severe asthma attack while having sneaked into Syria to report on the violence there. Shadid had seen his share of danger while reporting in the Middle East, having been shot in Palestine and held hostage in Libya. Unfortunately, this time, the danger proved fatal.

In tribute to Shadid's excellent reporting on the region, and not the least on Turkey-Syrian relations, I am linking to an earlier post that discusses a piece he wrote about Erdogan (bottom of page). The Times also has a collection of recollections and posthumous praise of Shadid.

One of my favorite pieces by Shadid is this story about the significance of the Ottoman loyalties transcending national boundaries in the Levant and Asia Minor. In it, Shadid beautifully uses the personal and 'small' world to illustrate grand historical themes of political significance.

http://turkeublog.blogspot.com/2011/06/recep-tayyip-erdogan-transcends-complex.html

Turkey's EU Dreams Hit New Snag - Energy Production | Oilprice.com

2012-02-15T14:09:00.000+01:00

A good piece on the role of energy - oil in particular - as it plays out in the Turkey-EU relationship on Oilprice.com. Below is an excerpt but read the whole piece as well.

So, the question arises, in the decades-long convoluted accession tango between the EU and Turkey, what will happen and who needs the other more? A decade ago the answer seemed more straightforward, but with the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development forecasting that Turkey will be the OECD’s fastest growing economy up to 2017, with a 6.7 percent average annual growth rate, Brussels, as it grapples with Greece’s incipient default, might take a new look at both Turkey’s importance to EU energy imports as well as its membership aspirations.

And, as for Turkey, its economic growth remains nobbled by the high cost of energy imports. According to Turkey’s Economy Ministry and TurkStat, Turkey's statistics authority of Turkey’s 2011 $240.8 billion in imports, energy cost $54.1 billion and for each $10 per barrel oil prices rise, Turkey shells out an additional $4 billion.

It’s good to have friends.

Addressing Turkey’s concerns for the energy well-being of its friends Yildiz said of the Istanbul discussions, "Turkey did everything it had to do. The fact that (Azeri Caspian offshore natural gas) Shah Deniz 2 project was signed implies opening up a path to carry natural gas to EU member countries. Up until now, Turkey has assumed a positive mode and will continue its positive approach. We want our meeting to generate a solid result. Turkey, by utilizing its advantages stemming from its geography, continues its works in practice related to the supply of natural gas and electricity to the EU members” before concluding that “energy is a human right. We do not foresee the opening up of the energy chapter to negotiations as a precondition as we meet EU's energy needs.”

Time for some reciprocity.

By. John C.K. Daly of Oilprice.com

Turkey's EU Dreams Hit New Snag - Energy Production

The Greek debacle | TheEUObserver.com

2012-02-13T16:17:00.000+01:00

Off-topic post but I have to link to a blog entry at The EU Observer on the unsustainability of the Troika's bitter medicine for Greece.

Here is what the Troika is demanding of Greece for 2012 alone (except for one of the demands, which is to be met by 2015):

a 22 per cent cut in the monthly minimum wage to €586;

layoffs for 15,000 of civil servants;

an end to dozens of job guarantee provisions;

a 20 per cent cut in its government work force by 2015;

spending cuts of more than €3 billion;

further cuts to retiree pension benefits.

Does that sound feasible to you in light of the fact that Athens is already partly in flames? It sure does sound like a great recipe for deepening the recession though... Follow the link below for the short blog post:

The Greek debacle « Political Economy 101

Special prosecutor summons head of Turkey's intelligence agency!

2012-02-09T22:13:00.000+01:00

This is such a complicated story that I won't even begin to pretend that I know exactly which way is up and which is down. But the special prosecutor in the Ergenekon and Sledgehammer investigations has now called the head of the MIT - the Turkish intelligence agency - as part of an investigation into alleged collusion between MIT and the Kurdish guerilla/terrorist organization, the PKK.

MIT operatives have infiltrated the PKK and allegedly helped set up the alleged urban and political wing of the PKK, the so-called KCK. Top MIT officials have also been involved in the peace talks with PKK leaders. It is alleged that the MIT infiltrators failed to stop terrorist attacks and even contributed to some of them. At the same time, the opposition has been accusing the AKP for trying to secretly arrange a peace deal with the PKK. Recordings of talks in Oslo were recently leaked online.

But perhaps an even more interesting dimension to this is that the MIT head, Hakan Fidan, and the special prosecutor are arguably both part of the AKP/moderate islamist camp. And Fidan is Erdoğan's personal appointee, so this could be interpreted as infighting between Turkey's "two states" as the newspaper Taraf put it in a headline.

The AKP with Erdoğan at its helm have garnered so much electoral success and has expanded so rapidly that we are likely seeing the consequences: increased infighting and growing factionalism. Rumor has it that President Abdullah Gül, for example, is not thrilled about Erdoğan's grand plans about creating a Presidential system with himself at the top, which in a unitary and highly centralized state would give tremendous authority to the President. One way of interpreting the move by the special prosecutor is that there may be other forces as well, who are unhappy with the current Prime Minister's plans.

No matter what, the plot thickens.

Sources for further reading:

Here's a good overview from Reuters:

http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/turkish-pm-erdogans-security-service-in-spotlight

The AKP-friendly (although with the eruption of factionalism, this may be too blunt a label...) Zaman has the following report:

MİT executives face serious accusations, trial process uncertain

The pro-opposition, anti-AKP newspaper Hurriyet:

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/ankara-in-shock-over-probe-on-intel-chiefs.aspx?pageID=238&nID=13359&NewsCatID=338

Greece Stepping up Security on Border With Turkey | ABC News

2012-02-07T11:18:00.000+01:00

Greek Public Order Minister Christos Papoutsis announced that construction of the planned fence along the Greek-Turkish border will begin soon, and is expected to be completed in September.

Papoutsis said the fence will be coupled with a network of fixed night-vision cameras providing real-time footage to the new command center.

Most of Greece's 125-mile (200 kilometer) border with Turkey runs along a river known as Evros in Greece and Meric in Turkey. The new fence, which Turkey's government has not opposed, will block a short stretch of dry land between the two countries.

So new walls are being erected in Europe. In one way, though, it is hard to blame Greece for this. Like Malta, the country is stuck with a lion share of refugees trying to enter the EU and its system for processing applications for asylum is vastly overloaded. Given the Union's policy of returning refugees to the country of entry (the first EU country they arrived in), the countries constituting the EU's outer borders are forced to these kinds of rather desperate measures.

Picture courtesy of Daily Mail and AP.

(Go here to see the picture on the Mail Online.)

As one of my second-semester students just pointed out in an excellent survey of the research on the EU's migration policies, this is a question of fairness on several dimensions. One dimension is the question of a fair division of labor between the EU member states, and here countries like Greece and Malta are getting the short end of the stick. The other dimension is of course the unfair treatment of the refugees that are stuck in terrible conditions in these countries.

Ultimately, of course, a fence won't do the trick. We are stuck with the inherent unfairness of a system in which the European economies and their baby-boomer generation retirees depend on cheap migrant labor, and yet treat the prospective workers less than humanely as they are trying to make their way here. One wishes we could do better.

Greece Stepping up Security on Border With Turkey - ABC News

French Court to Rule on Armenian Genocide Legislation - NYTimes.com

2012-02-01T14:15:00.000+01:00

From today's New York Times, an Armenian-American voice in support of the recent French decision, and news that the country's supreme authority on the constitution will review the constitutionality of the decision:

PARIS — France’s Constitutional Council said Tuesday that it would rule on the constitutionality of criminalizing the denial of a genocide of Armenians during World War I, after receiving appeals signed by dozens of lawmakers from across the political spectrum.

French Court to Rule on Armenian Genocide Legislation - NYTimes.com

The Perils of Playing Politics With History | NYTimes.com

2012-01-31T20:18:00.000+01:00

From the New York Times today:

By criminalizing the denial of genocide in Armenia, France followed the examples of Switzerland and Slovenia and helped sharpen a parallel debate in Israel. But in alienating Turkey — an increasingly sharp-elbowed NATO ally and regional player — the French authorities seemed to place political considerations at home ahead of perils abroad, risking criticism of their own cherished identity as a bastion of liberté.

“This bill, if implemented, would have a chilling effect on public debate and contravene France’s international obligation to uphold freedom of expression,” said Nicola Duckworth of Amnesty International.

The Perils of Playing Politics With History - NYTimes.com

Massive demonstrations in Istanbul

2012-01-21T10:25:00.000+01:00

I'm a couple of days behind, but there were massive demonstrations in Istanbul to protest the verdicts in the Hrant Dink case. Dink was an Armenian-Turkish publicist who was shot dead in 2007. Three of the 19 charged with being involved were recently found guilty (the shooter got 22 years behind bars), but all charged were acquitted of being part of a larger conspiracy and the court found no evidence of state negligence.

Protesters carried signs that said "Hepimiz Hrant'ız" and "Hepimiz Ermeniyiz!" ("We're all Hrant" and "We're all Armenian!")

Amnesty International issued a highly critical comment on the verdict and many Turks were spurred to protest as well.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16632890

S&P On Europe - NYTimes.com

2012-01-15T10:56:00.000+01:00

Paul Krugman comments on the reason for S&P's downgrade of Eurozone countries and, more worryingly, the EU's response:

S&P’s downgrade of a bunch of European sovereigns was no surprise. What was somewhat surprising — and which went unmentioned in almost all the news stories I’ve read — was why S&P has gotten so pessimistic. From their FAQs:
We also believe that the agreement [the latest euro rescue plan] is predicated on only a partial recognition of the source of the crisis: that the current financial turmoil stems primarily from fiscal profligacy at the periphery of the eurozone. In our view, however, the financial problems facing the eurozone are as much a consequence of rising external imbalances and divergences in competitiveness between the EMU’s core and the so-called “periphery”. As such, we believe that a reform process based on a pillar of fiscal austerity alone risks becoming self-defeating, as domestic demand falls in line with consumers’ rising concerns about job security and disposable incomes, eroding national tax revenues.
And today we read about the response:
German chancellor Angela Merkel has called on eurozone governments speedily to implement tough new fiscal rules after Standard & Poor’s downgraded the credit ratings of France and Austria and seven other second-tier sovereigns.
Still barreling down the road to nowhere.

For some reason, I just keep thinking of a scene from Nemo, the Disney film (yes, I have little kids), in which the two little fish Dora and Marlin swim straight down into the dark abyss, into the arms of a monster.

All the while, they hum "just keep swimming, just keep swimming!"...

S&P On Europe - NYTimes.com

Turkish journalists denounce trials | EurActiv

2012-01-12T11:12:00.001+01:00

From EurActiv:

Turkey is currently holding nearly 100 members of the news media in jail, one of the highest numbers worldwide, in a crackdown that critics and human rights groups say blights the country's image as a role model for democracy in the Middle East.

Prominent Turkish journalists on trial for alleged links to an underground anti-government network called the conspiracy charges against them "political" in a case that has raised concerns over media freedom in Turkey.

Nedim Şener and Ahmet Şık, investigative journalists arrested in March and held since then in a top-security prison outside Istanbul, were among 14 defendants in court to open their defence on Thursday (5 January).

Turkey is currently holding nearly 100 members of the news media in jail, one of the highest numbers worldwide, in a crackdown that critics and human rights groups say blights the country's image as a role model for democracy in the Middle East.

Turkish journalists denounce trials | EurActiv

European Parliament's Opinion on Turkey Progress Report

2012-01-08T13:43:00.001+01:00

Follow this link to get to an online version of the European Parliament's (EP) recently enacted resolution on the Commission's 2011 Progress Report on Turkey. (I can't find it on the Parliament's own pages.)

It contains important and appropriate criticism, of which I have excerpted some of the most significant portions below. The problem, of course, is that due to the EU's past and current treatment of Turkey, the Progress Reports and the EP's opinions receive less and less attention in Turkey. So at a time when penetrating criticism is arguably needed urgently, the EU's "normative power" over Turkey is weaker than in decades. In the words of the prominent columnist Mehmet Ali Birand:

relations have dropped to their lowest level. Turkey is not on Europe’s agenda anymore. Europe is not on Turkey’s agenda either.

It has gone back to such an extent that for the first time in 47 years, the influence of the EU over Turkish politics has reached almost zero. In the past, voices, critics and warnings coming from Europe would be taken into utmost consideration; moreover, domestic politics would be adjusted to the EU’s conditions and rules.

Today, Ankara does not pay attention to either the Council of Europe or the European Parliament.

The reports used to be the top story in Turkish news for weeks, now they are mentioned and dropped. And this particular silence is not a result of phone calls from the Prime Minister.

For what it is worth, then, here are some key resolutions in the opinion:

9. Reiterates its concern that judicial procedural norms have not yet been improved sufficiently to ensure the right to a fair and timely trial, including the right to access incriminating evidence in the early phases of the proceedings and sufficient guarantees for all suspects; expresses great concern at the duration of pre-trial detention, with the latter becoming de-facto punishment without a trial; urges the TGNA to reform legislation on pre-trial detention bringing maximum pre-trial detention periods in Turkey in line with average pre-trial detention periods in the European Union;

10. Stresses that investigations of alleged coup plans, such as the ‘Ergenekon’ and ‘Sledgehammer’ cases, must demonstrate the strength and the proper, independent, impartial and transparent functioning of Turkish democratic institutions and the judiciary and their firm, unconditional commitment to the respect of fundamental rights;

11. Reiterates its concern on the practice of bringing criminal prosecutions against journalists who communicate evidence of human rights violations or raise other issues in the public interest as a contribution to the debate of a pluralistic society; considers the criminalisation of opinions as a key obstacle to the protection of human rights in Turkey and deplores disproportionate restriction of the freedoms of expression, association and assembly;

12. Urges Turkey to comply rigorously with its international human rights obligations in this respect by amending its relevant legislation and by training its police and judiciary; welcomes in this regard the decision to provide judges and prosecutors with in-service training on freedom of expression and freedom of the press and on the fundamental role of the European Court of Human Rights;

13. Recalls that freedom of expression and media pluralism are at the heart of European values and that a truly democratic, free and pluralistic society requires true freedom of expression; underlines that reform of legislation allowing for disproportionately high fines on the media – leading in some cases to their closure or to self-censorship by journalists or their editors – and of law 5651/2007 on the internet, which limits freedom of expression, restricts citizens’ right to access to information and allows websites bans of disproportionate scope and duration, is very urgent;

Avrupa Parlamentosu 2011 Türkiye Raporu Taslak Metni | CHP Bruksel – Avrupa Birliği Haberleri Bülteni Dağıtım Sistemi

Daily Show on Islamophobia in Florida Republican Party (video).

2012-01-07T20:52:00.000+01:00

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart

Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c

The Elephant in the Room

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Daily Show Full Episodes

Political Humor & Satire Blog

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Coup-plotting allegations in Turkey: Bugged out | The Economist

2012-01-06T21:41:00.000+01:00

Interesting piece on the latest Ergonekon developments in the current issue of the Economist.

With the arrest of a former chief of Turkey's general staff, Ilker Başbuğ, the Economist quotes the former US ambassador to Turkey, Eric Adelman, who knew Başbuğ. According to Adelman, the move to jail Başbuğ will

"underscore the serious questions about Turkey's continued commitment to press freedom and the rule of law." That commitment is waning. Nearly 500 students are in prison facing "terrorism" charges for such infractions as demanding free education. Some 97 journalists have also been imprisoned, many on similarly absurd grounds.

Mr Erdoğan's increasingly authoritarian ways have prompted claims that his government has simply swapped places with the army. His supporters have a different worry. They say that having purged the old guard in the military, he is now cutting deals with the new set.

Read the whole piece here: Coup-plotting allegations in Turkey: Bugged out | The Economist

Former President and coup leader Kenan Evren indicted

2012-01-04T11:31:00.003+01:00

Turkish prosecutors have indicted former Turkish President and Chief of Staff, Gen. Kenan Evren for his role in the 1980 military coup. Gen. Evren and Gen. Tahsin Şahinkaya had been protected by the provisional article 15 of the Turkish constitution that was established after the coup, but with the repeal of the article the path toward the indictment was cleared.

Courtesy of Wikimedia Commons

There is still doubt as to whether the statute of limitations has expired. Counting from the time of the coup, it has, but the prosecutor claims that the deadline should be calculated starting from when the constitution was amended instead.

Some links:

http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/europe/turkey/120103/turkey-coup-generals-constitution

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204368104577138610045317548.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

In Turkish: http://www.radikal.com.tr/Radikal.aspx?aType=RadikalDetayV3&ArticleID=1074480&Date=04.01.2012&CategoryID=77

Explaining anti-Turkish attitudes in the EU - book excerpt

2011-12-20T21:30:00.000+01:00

I just re-read an old post and saw that I promised to post excerpts from my book, Turkey and the European Union: Christian and Secular Images of Islam. That promise has fallen by the wayside but here is a short passage from the conclusion to the penultimate chapter, in which I have looked at depressing poll data regarding attitudes within the EU toward Turkey's EU bid and towards Turks in general. My explanation for the hostility is based on the historical examination in previous chapters:

Negative stereotypes of Turkey and Turks, of Muslims and Islam have a long history among Christians and in Europe, and have been repeatedly invoked in the ongoing attempts to create common Christian or European identities out of the diverse social fabric of the continent. The discursive and affective powers of this imagery were amplified by its inclusion in larger narratives that enabled their audiences to identify with a broader community, and to find a compelling moral purpose in its struggles against a typically inferior and/or dangerous Other. For these reasons, said images and the attitudes they evoked have become deeply embedded in European collective memory, understood not as the static recollection of a true past but as an evolving struggle to define this past, conditioned as much by contemporary realities as by the intersubjective meaning structures and categories left us by past generations.

The good news is that, while contemporary prejudice may be widespread on the aggregate European level of analysis, it is not ubiquitous. Although we have not had the space to illustrate this, the figures vary considerably between and within countries, with Austrians standing out as most skeptical in the 2006 Eurobarometer (81 percent of Austrians would say no to Turkey even if it complied with all the membership criteria), followed by Germans and Luxembourgers (69 percent). Swedes are the most supportive, followed by the Dutch and Slovenians (60, 55, and 53 percent in favor, respectively).

---

UPDATE 2012-01-28: I changed the title of the post from "anti-Turkish stereotypes" to "anti-Turkish attitudes" because I realized that the latter is a better description of the argument.

Boycotting Lowe's

2011-12-17T18:12:00.000+01:00

The Lowe's saga continues. Here's a great YouTube clip made by family of a friend of mine.

FFA: Don't mess with our stereotypes of Muslims! (Video)

2011-12-15T22:14:00.000+01:00

Oh boy. Apparently, an organization called the Florida Family Association is upset with the reality show "All-American Muslim" for not showing Muslims who conform to the organization's stereotype of Muslims. What is worse, they have pressured a few large corporations, including Lowe's (and Home Depot?) to pull all advertising from the show.

For what?!? Apparently for treading on the FFA's prejudices by not depicting all Muslims as crazed terrorists!

Well, while the FFA is getting the attention it sought (and apparently needed), other - more significant - Christian groups, such as the National Council of Churches, have fortunately come out against the FFA and against Lowe's for heeding the group's call for a boycott.

As usual, the Daily Show provides the best response to this kind of craziness:

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart

Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c

Kabulvision

www.thedailyshow.com

Daily Show Full Episodes

Political Humor & Satire Blog

The Daily Show on Facebook

And:

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart

Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c

Kabulvision - A New Lowe

www.thedailyshow.com

Daily Show Full Episodes

Political Humor & Satire Blog

The Daily Show on Facebook

EU leaders tell Turkey to 'respect' Cyprus | EUobserver

2011-12-11T19:43:00.000+01:00

After Turkey's threat to boycot meetings when The Republic of Cyprus takes over the EU's rotating presidency next year, the EU council is planning to warn Turkey to "respect" Cyprus and the EU's presidency.

From the EUobserver:

"The EU council calls on EU partners to fully respect the role of the rotating presidency of the council, which is a fundamental institutional feature of the Union provided for in the treaty," the 27 countries are planning to say, according to draft summit conclusions circulated in Brussels on Thursay (8 December).

Corruption creeping up in Bulgaria, Greece, Romania: TI | EurActiv

2011-12-08T20:42:00.000+01:00

According to Euractiv.com, the latest report from Transparency International gives poor grades to several EU countries and points to increasing corruption in Bulgaria, Greece, and Romania. In contrast, some candidate countries are doing better. Iceland, for example, ranks very well. And:

Turkey's performance is also relatively good, although slightly worse than last year (4.2, down from 4.4). However, it still did better than EU-member Slovakia and ranked higher than Croatia, which is set to join the EU soon.

Corruption creeping up in Bulgaria, Greece, Romania: TI | EurActiv

Book talk, Stockholm University Dec 7

2011-12-03T22:22:00.001+01:00

I'll be at Uppsala University tomorrow, Dec 1

2011-11-30T22:00:00.001+01:00

For my readers in Sweden: I'll be giving an open lecture at Utrikespolitiska Föreningen (the Uppsala Association of International Affairs) at Uppsala University tomorrow evening. Here's a link to their program.

The talk will be held at 7:15 pm, in the University Building, Room IX (Universitetshuset) and it'll be in English.

The title of the talk is "Images of Turkey and Islam: Europe's Identity Crisis and Its Consequences" and it will mostly based on my book. But I also want to share some reflections of the potential effects of the current Eurozone crisis. (Although that is not the identity crisis mentioned in the title.) There will be an opportunity to chat over dinner at one of the "nations" after the talk.

How to deal with the Eurozone crisis (my 2 cents)

2011-11-22T15:06:00.001+01:00

Here's a post on a matter only partially related to the topics I normally deal with, which I wrote for an other purpose. But it is an issue that is extremely urgent, so, with the caveat that I'm not an economist, here's my proposal for how to deal with the current Eurozone crisis (and also because I'm grading, so I don't have time to write something new right now):

Guangzhou, China. From over here, it is hard to avoid the feeling that European governments are conspiring to bring down the global economy. It’s an unfair allegation, no doubt: the IMF is doing its part, too.

But it doesn’t have to be this way. The chief obstacle now in the way of effective solutions to the European sovereign debt crisis is the failure to recognize that there are significant differences between the short, intermediate, and long-term problems. Because these problems are distinct from each other they require different solutions. Until our leaders realize this – and I mean national politicians as well as the leadership of organizations like the IMF – we will find it hard to break out of the vicious downward spiral that we are now in.

I want to suggest the outlines of an alternative proposal for how to break the cycle. In so doing, I will leave the longer-term issues (the lack of fiscal and political integration in the Eurozone and the destructive impact of unregulated financial markets on the real economy) aside and concentrate on the short and intermediate term problems we face.

The immediate problem is, of course, the acute crisis we are now facing: ballooning sovereign debts in several Eurozone countries, untenably high yields on Greek, Italian, and perhaps soon French bonds, and a lack of robust economic growth. Given the risk of contagion, broad exposure to bad debts, and the risk of a collapse of the Euro, this is a Europe-wide problem.

As for the intermediate crisis, its causes and severity varies. In Greece’s case, the current fiscal problems result from a combination of too high government expenditures, poor revenue collection, and general public sector inefficiencies. These are significant structural problems that require structural solutions in the intermediate to long term.

But, as Nobel laureate Paul Krugman and others have pointed out, in countries like the U.K. and Italy the causes are entirely different. In the U.K., much of the initial deficit was a natural result of the recession. And despite its debt problems, which in part have to do with having had to bail out its banks, Italy is actually expected to run a small surplus on its primary budget (excluding interest payments) this year. So these countries do not necessarily face long-to-intermediate term structural problems of the same kind and magnitude as Greece’s.

The great challenge, then, is how to deal with the intermediate-term problem – that is, the structural deficits in those countries (like Greece) that run them – without making the immediate crisis worse, and vice versa. And this is where the EU is failing spectacularly.

The Greek austerity measures that have been implemented – attempts to deal with the country’s intermediate, structural problems – so far only seem to make the immediate problems worse. In simple language: firing droves of public sector employees means less taxes to collect and greater burdens on the social services. Similar dynamics are at work in the UK, where the drastic cuts implemented by Cameron’s government just seem to have exacerbated the crisis. In both countries, growth has been stunted and deficits have soared.

It doesn’t take an economist to understand that what is needed to resolve the immediate crisis is instead something akin to old-fashioned Keynesian deficit spending in those countries that can afford it, coupled with raising ECB’s inflation target to relieve the real burden of debt those countries struggling to make their payments. At the very least, we must abandon the simultaneous public sector retrenchments that are currently being forced upon countries across the continent by the IMF and the EU. Such concerted belt-tightening in the midst of a severe recession only threatens to turn a recession into a depression.

But there remains the immediate problem of convincing the bond markets that this does not equate to simply putting off difficult intermediate-term deficit-cutting measures to the future. My suggestion is therefore to enact two-tiered solutions: Attempts to stimulate growth in the present need to be coupled with automatically triggered structural deficit-cutting reforms in the intermediate future when growth has returned.

The automated triggering of such time-limited reforms (in the countries with significant structural problems) needs to be ironclad, so as to impress the financial markets now. Like Odysseus, European politicians in countries that face structural problems need to tie themselves to the mast.

One example of how this could be achieved is deficit-cutting measures that are introduced once certain indicators show sustained and substantial growth, but which – once triggered – would require parliamentary unanimity in consecutive parliaments (with elections in-between) to be overturned. The exact nature of such mechanisms would have to vary according to the different national legal and economic contexts but the important thing is that they are convincing.

Such procedures raise concerns about democratic legitimacy. But governments are falling in Europe and “technocrats” installed in their place to do the bidding of the lenders. We already enshrine our most important political rights and legislative procedures in constitutions that are protected by such restrictions. It only makes sense to employ similar tools to protect our economies against the vagaries of the bond markets until the latter can be tamed. In the long run, we might consider enacting constitutionally required surplus targets averaged over business cycles, inspired by the success of the Swedish budget surplus target.

In order to get out of the hole we are now in, we need to stop digging. This entails recognizing that we are facing different short-term and intermediate-term problems and that we need to respond to them accordingly, with a two-tiered solution that doesn’t solve one problem by making the other one worse.