NIFTY RainMaker

AXIS BANK

2016-07-30T11:46:00.003+05:30

AXIS BANK DAILY CHART

In the middle of January Axis Bank made a Low at 367 and from there on until the end of February it remained in a range which with the benefit of hindsight can now be labelled as Wave 1 & Wave 2 where Wave 2 is deep - more than 80% and complex in nature. Wave 3 which traveled up to 545 was an extended wave and was 262% of wave 1 followed by wave 4 which was shallow and simple in nature. As the wave 3 was extended wave 5 was expected to be shorter and it failed to achieve 62% of 0-3 distance in fact it was tad short of 50%. So far everything fits well in the wave theory.

AXIS BANK DAILY CHART

Assuming 5 wave completed at 577 a decent 3 wave decline is expected as in wave 2 / B of higher degree. Also note that this 5 wave move has crossed the reflex point it could be the signal to change of trend and fresh buying can be initiated at the end of 3 wave move down, which can be anticipated at 62% of the whole move or about 162% of wave A as tentatively marked on the chart as of now which gives us the range of 463 – 447 to keep watch on.

Happy Trading !

SHEKHAR

RCOM; UPDATE

2014-12-17T11:14:00.002+05:30

RCOM DAILY CHART

If some body is interested in RCOM here is the latest update.
Refer my earlier post here: RCOM: An Elliot Wave Analysis

SHEKHAR

NIFTY

2014-11-08T17:46:00.001+05:30

It is said that over the period of time 'Mass Psychology' remains the same. Group of people at different places behave in the same manner repeatedly.

Attached is a Chart which I cam across going through my study material taken from the web some time back. The astonishing similarity with the NIFTY movement which we are witnessing these days caught my eyes.

I have cropped the chart to show approximately the stage where NIFTY is presently. Hope everybody sees what I am seeing.

Let me know If you agree.

SHEKHAR

NIFTY AS OF NOW

THIS IS FULL CHART FOR EUR/GBP

NOTE: Also see NIFTY chart posted by me on Nov. 01, 2014. The security in the chart is in a different time zone.

NIFTY: WE ARE STILL IN WAVE 3

2014-11-01T14:38:00.002+05:30

NIFTY ELLIOT WAVE CHART

I am sticking to my count which I had given some time in Aug 2013 as nothing has changed in the hypothesis. Therefore, following is the continuation of the same argument.

Wave 1 started from the low of 4531.15 on 20/12/2011 which took the shape of a Leading Diagonal and ended at 6229.45 and followed by a simple wave 2 correction which corrected 61.8% and made a low of 5119 on 28/08/2013 which marks the beginning of the wave 3. The move that followed had confirmed that NIFTY is in a typical wave 3 move.

Now let us look into the internals of wave 3.

Wave (i) 5119 - 6343

Wave (ii) 6343 - 5933 Little less than 38.2% correction.

Wave (iii) 5933 - 8180 This wave is extended done more that 161.8% (approx 180% of wave (i) )

Wave (iv) 8180 – 7724 This was again a shallow correction done little less than 23.6%

Since we are still in wave 3, the question arises where will it lead us to ? It is presumed that within wave 3, 4 subwaves have been done and now we are witnessing wave 3 (v) .

The typical target for the end of wave (v) and hence the wave 3 comes at

8893 38.2% of zero to wave 3
8948 wave (i) = wave (v); whenever wave (iii) extends.

If we take into consideration the major waves which began from 4531 wave 3 has already covered more than (of wave 1)

1.618 @ 7866

1.707 @ 8017

The next ratio which coincides with the targets anticipated from the internals of wave 3 happens to be

2.236 times of wave 1 and gives target for NIFTY @ 8916. Although 2.0 of wave 1 comes @ 8515 one can keep an eye on this along with the internals of the sub wave (v).

The Confluence of Ratios suggest that we may have wave 3 ending somewhere in the region of 8893- 8916 - 8948.

Happy Trading !

SHEKHAR

CROMPTON GREAVES: TIME TO BUY FOR SHORT TERM

2014-10-31T20:14:00.001+05:30

CROPMTON GREAVES DAILY CHART is enclosed with Elliot wave marking. It is easy to deduce the following.

1. W2 is simple and corrected more than 50%
2. W3 is bit larger than 162% of W1
3. W4 is a complex correction with W 4(c) ending
at 38.2% of W3(subwave a equals subwave c)
4. 1st TGT for W5 will be 232. SL 175.75

Also note that on weekly charts price has made a hammer today. One can long above it with SL below the hammer i.e. 175.75

Happy Trading !

SHEKHAR

Crompton Greaves Daily Chart

BANK NIFTY

2014-10-09T11:57:00.000+05:30

BANK NIFTY HOURLY CHART

This is an hourly chart of BNF a clear 5 wave fall has completed. Which implies that the correction in Bank Nifty will be a Zig-Zag move i.e. 5-3-5

Now expect a 3 wave recovery which generaly recover 62% of the down move and sometime can extend upto next higher level therefore look for reversal at 62% or go short at 62% with SL a bit above 80% hourly closing basis.

Hopefully one can catch the C wave down from there.

Happy Trading !
SHEKHAR

BHEL: A BIT OF CONFUSION

2014-10-07T09:41:00.005+05:30

BHEL MONTHLY CHART

BHEL DAILY CHART

This chart now seems to add clarity

BHEL on Oct 09, 2014

BHEL 180 min CHART

HINDALCO: Possible Fifth wave has begun

2014-10-03T08:10:00.001+05:30

HINDALCO DAILY CHART

HINDALCO: If not already Long. Go long above HRLY pivot at 166.5.

or

Buy if price gets in the rage of 145-150 on HRly chart that is about 50% - 62% retrace of five wave move as visible on hrly chart

HINDALCO HOURLY CHART

Target for this up move is minimum 204.

Happy Trading !
SHEKHAR

RELIANCE CAPITAL : Time to Buy

2014-10-02T13:01:00.001+05:30

RELCAPITAL

Time has come when one should be ready to buy this stock. Possible target could be minimum 668.9 that is the high of wave 3. Sometimes wave 5 do get shortened but that is an exception.

RELIANCE CAPITAL HOURLY CHART

Keep a close eye on Hourly chart it will give better guidance for Entry.

Happy Trading!
SHEKHAR

Pl correct: 61.8% of wave 3= 443 approx

YESBANK: Heading South in the Short Term

2014-09-30T14:44:00.002+05:30

YESBANK WEEKLY CHART

.....

RCOM: An Elliot Wave Analysis

2014-09-27T10:59:00.003+05:30

RCOM DAILY CHART

Starting from the low of 46.55 on 30/08/2013 RCOM was in an impulsive move which ended at 164.65 on 17/09/2013 a clear five wave up move can been observed.

17/09/2013 onwards RCOM is in correction mode wave a made a low of 106.75 followed by wave b up move which ended at 157.25 about 80% retrace of wave a.

Wave c down has started from 157.25 which is still continuing. A 61.8% retrace of the previous impulse comes at approx 91 and for now wave c has made a low of 93.05 on 26/09/2014.

Has wave c ended thus the correction completed ? The next impulsive wave is about to begin ???

Let us look closely into the wave c. Wave c always consist of 5 subwaves, here we can visualise that presently RCOM is in c (iii) (still on). c (iv) and c (v) are still to unfold.

Keeping all the above in mind we can for sure say that there is still some more downside left in the RCOM.

Where can this downfall end ? Some reasonable estimate/guess can be at 74-77 range which happens to be 76.4% retrace of the impulsive move and also 138.2% extension of corrective wave a. Confluence of Fibo ratios is one important region to lookout for.

If it goes deeper than the next lower level could be 64 approx. which happens to be 161.8% of the wave a what is quite normal for wave c to travel.

Once we are able to define the end point of wave c (iii) we will have a better estimation where the wave c could end. So keep a watch on the internals of wave c and catch the next BIG MOVE UP !!!

Happy trading !

SHEKHAR

NB: All Fibo values are approximation on visual basis they are not calculated values.

NIFTY: Still some steam left before corrections sets in.

2014-08-29T14:33:00.002+05:30

NIFTY WEEKLY ELLIOT WAVE CHART

Starting from the lows of 4534 we had wave 1 as a leading diagonal ending at 6229. Wave 2 corrected to 61.8% + levels and thereafter we are enjoying a wave 3 move. (A possibility was suggested as an alternate count last Aug.)

For now W3 has already moved beyond normal i.e. more than 161.8% of wave 1 next possible extension is 176.2% or 200% at 8091 & 8495.

NIFTY 15 MIN CHART

Now look at the internals of wave three starting from 5105 which appears to be nearing completion. W 3 ii retraced merely 38.2% of W 3 i, the normal end of wave 3 comes at 6181. If we further go down and look into what looks like a wave 3 v, it is forming an Ending Diagonal and we are at W 3 v (4).

In nutshell, keep an eye on 8091 -8161 range we may have a meaningful correction starting from there.

Happy Trading!

SHEKHAR

NIFTY MONTHLY CHART JAN 2014

2014-01-22T14:10:00.000+05:30

NIFTY MONTHLY CHART

Nifty is at a critical juncture at almost previous highs. Whereas MACD is showing a clear divergence.

LOOK for sell signal in STS and MACD. A fall can be anticipated.

If prices closes above the previous high bull run might continue. As long as Divergence is there up move will be suspect.

Incidentally it also completes a part of C&H pattern as shown in the previous post below.

Happy Trading !

SHEKHAR

A CUP & HANDLE PATTERN ON NIFTY

2013-10-12T13:41:00.000+05:30

NIFTY WEEKLY CHART

Nifty Spot Weekly Chart

Starting from the Low of 2008 a close look gives a kind of feeling that it is forming a Cup & Handle pattern, it is still in a formative stage and hence only my assumption, which may be proven wrong.

This is another chart Nifty Spot which shows a better rounded formation (because of sudden plunge) and handle also seems to have been done. One can have his own independent views. As a trader we know when to and how to enter a trade.

Here is a small write up from Investopedia on C&H pattern.

This is a bullish continuation pattern where the upward trend has paused, and traded down, but will continue in an upward direction upon the completion of the pattern. This pattern can range from several months to a year, but its general form remains the same. The construct of the cup itself is also important: it should be a nicely rounded formation, similar to a semi-circle. The reason is that a cup-and-handle pattern is a signal of consolidation within a trend.

Keep an Eye !

SHEKHAR

RELIANCE INDUSTRIES

2013-09-30T10:07:00.000+05:30

Reliance Industires

Reliance Industries Weekly Chart Sept. 27, 2013
Symetrical Triangle. Keep an Eye on the Beakout it may give nice move upto 1647.
Please note Chart is weekly and It may take months to give a BO and my take is Once Nifty bottoms out Reliance will lead the Charge in new Rally
Happy Trading !
SHEKHAR

Nifty Alternate Bullish Count

2013-08-28T10:41:00.000+05:30

NIFTY LEADING DIAGONAL

This a possible alternate count which starts from lows of 4538 wave 1 being a Leading diagonal now W2 running c = 1.62 * a = 5011.

Although corrections in wave 2 after Leading diagonals are deep and can retrace upto 80% 4875 approx. 5172 is 61.8% retrace it may also hold by the close of the day one needs to keep an eye on it.

Happy Trading !
SHEKHAR

USDINR: Has Rupee Bottomed Out ?

2013-08-23T12:52:00.001+05:30

USDINR WEEKLY CHART

Startng from lows of Aug 2007 at 39.06 wave 3 is nearing completion, if it happens to be a normal wave i.e. 161.8% of w1.

The wave 3 in the weekly chart can be still shown as incomplete (if we go by the form i.e. looking for 5 waves within wave 3 with 3(iv) and 3(v) yet to be done) it would be suggestive of greater weakness in the rupee. For the present I am assuming that W3 is likely to close nearer to 161.8 of W1 on weekly chart, and discarding the form. We can see a slow and grinding larger wave 4 recovering upto Rs 57.

The internal strucutre as seen in hourly chart shows that there is still a small upmove pending and which is likely close around 67. Expect a mild recovery closer to 63.08 - 62.33 ranges and a final push to 66-67 before a decent recovery in Rupee begins.

USDINR HOURLY CHART

NIFTY UPDATE

2013-08-06T10:50:00.004+05:30

Wave 3 (1) down is about to end.

NIFTY HOURLY CHART

NIFTY UPDATE

2013-07-26T09:00:00.001+05:30

NIFTY

Nifty Update

2013-07-12T10:14:00.006+05:30

As of now it seems Tgt for Nifty could be 6079. Chart is self explanotary.

NIFTY

NIFTY DOWN TREND STARTED

2013-06-21T20:06:00.000+05:30

NIFTY WEEKLY CHART

It appears that Nifty has completed c of wave B at 6233 and down trend has started we get a confirmation below 5476.

This down trend starting from 6233 will be in 5 waves.

This first set of 5 wave (forming wave 1 of C) is likely to end at 5529 as per golden ratio, if we go down further into the internals of wave 5 it suggests end point closer to 5555. So for now I anticipate fall to stop in the range of 5555-5529

NIFTY EOD CHART

There is an outside chance of taking out the previous low of 5476 as wave three was little less than normal- wave 5 could extend, to confirm the downtrend.

For now wait for a 3 wave up-move to initiate fresh shorts for big gains. If one can manage to trade, upmove of 300-400 pts is on cards.

Tentative Road Map for wave C 6233 > 5529 > 5961 > 4820 > 5250 > 4382 necessary correction will be made as we move along and waves unfold themselves.

Happy Trading !
SHEKHAR

NIFTY WAY FORWARD

2013-05-04T17:05:00.001+05:30

NIFTY MEDIUM TERM VIEW

I had posted a count on Nifty in July 12 and next in Dec 12, I feel that bearish count is still valid and nothing has changed since.

The downmove which started from 6115 in the end of Jan 2013 and reached the low of 5476 has

negated any bullish count starting from the lows 4534 in oct 2011, we can't label it as impulsive wave, simply because of the overlap, unless of course the 3^rd wave itself is subdividing and we are witnessing the 3^rd of 3^rd which implies super bullish trend.

For now, I am still taking this upmove as 'abc' of wave B starting from the Low of 4534, hence 138.2% of wave 'a' comes to 6278 and golden ratio target for internal wave 5 of wave 'c' comes to 6312 , which also happens to be a channel TGT.

6278-6312 zone should be the end point of this upmove the whole correction ABC for the move starting from the low of Oct 2008 may turnout to be a Flat Correction, ending somewhere close to previous low of 4534.

SHEKHAR

Happy Trading!

HCLTECH UPMOVE DONE !

2013-03-03T09:59:00.000+05:30

HCLTECH EOD CHART

A five wave move seems to have ended.

The five waves are in the following ratio

W2 retraced about 80% of the W1 followed by W3 which went tad higher than 1.618% of W1 and W4 retraced 38.2% of W3. Wave 5 is an extended wave and the possible targets are 718 > >757 >>781.

Now take a look at internal wave structure of W5

W (ii) retraced 61.8% of the previous move and followed by the massive W(iii) which extended close to 400% the next wave W(iv) retraced merely 23% of W(iii). All these move gives us possible end point of W (v) as 731 at 261.8% of W(i) or at 736.5 if taken as per golden ratio.

Woila ! Present move seems to have met resistance at 736.6 for now.

W 5 is an extended wave hence we should get a fast retracement, taking the price close to 500 !

Happy Trading !

SHEKHAR

BHARTI AIRTEL

2013-01-17T19:26:00.000+05:30

Bharti Airtel EOD Chart

For Positional Longs wait for correction.
This is an EOD chart for Bharti ARTL, which clearly shows a five wave move past the reflex point is about to end. The estimated end point for wave 5 comes to 360.85, and we can now look for 3 wave correction before we initiate positional Longs. Supposing it ends at given tgt we can expect 50% to 61.8% retracement i.e. look to buy in the range of 300 - 285.

Here is a short Trade for short term

Bharti Airtel Hourly Chart

Here is a Hrly chart depicting the internal wave structure of the wave 5
w ii is almost 78% of w i
w iii is 161.8% of w i
w iv is 38.2% of w 3
A normal wave should have ended at 345 approx. Here w v has started expanding and the possible TGT could be 359.5 at 100% from there we can expect fast retracement into the range of 329 -326.

If we go deeper into the sub wave and take the emerging ratios likely projected end is close to 361. Hence from the above three we can safely assume that there is a very good chance for a low risk short entry close to 360 with minimum stoploss and tgt could be 329-326 and then may be 300-285

Keep in mind wave 5's can keep expanding, we only know after the end of it.

Happy Trading !
SHEKHAR

Nifty 6100

2012-11-04T13:02:00.003+05:30

NIFTY DAILY CHART NOV 02, 2012

Moving past 5851 confirms the direction and below 5600 negates the view for the time being.