Pacific Food Distributors Market News Blog

Chicken Market Update- Week of 12/26

2011-12-21T13:34:00.000-08:00

Market update

· A lot of bullish sediment this week from the poultry industry, but it’s not showing up in the breast meat pricing for next week.

· The holidays always brings reduced kills and supply, but it seems like demand is not appearing either. There was discounting all this week on breast meat, and it seems thigh meat has caught the same flu.

· Now it seems fresh thigh meat has slowed some and discounting has also shown up here. I would think we should see some relieve on thigh meat pricing very soon.

· Tenders and wings are still HOT! And cut backs have made product hard to find.

· Hindquarters, drums, and rest of the bone in retail dark meat is in great shape, just the jumbo, food service items are still struggling some.

· Sanderson’s earnings came out this week, and they were bad. They lost 21.6 million in the last quarter, and most likely will lose more this quarter. Hopefully they will figure it out before they run out of money! More cut backs are needed.

Chicken Market Update- Week of 12/19

2011-12-15T13:35:00.001-08:00

Market Update

· The market seems in a little better shape on white meat. Demand is a little better, and supplies are more limited this week.

· The next few weeks with holidays, we may see reduced kills, but should also see less demand.

· Wings and tenders are still hot items.

· Breast meat a little better.

· Most dark meat is steady, with hindquarters in highest demand. Wings could continue to be short for the next few months.

· It will be interesting to see how the producers manage supply with the holidays, if managed properly the breast market, both bnls and bone in could advance.

Poultry Market Update for the week of 12/12

2011-12-08T15:06:00.000-08:00

· Wings, Wings, Wings….that is all anyone gives a crap about. Just wings; everything else is just in a holding pattern.

· Fresh breast meat seems a little more neglected this week. Very weak demand, although limited supplies…still can’t keep prices from falling some.

· Bone in whole breast seem hard to find, although the prices on formal market hold steady even as packers can sell for more money.

· Dark meat has seemed to level off.

· Leg meat seems more abundant, which in turn should help keep thigh meat prices steady (for a few weeks).

· After December, thigh meat and leg meat should move down some as fresh needs subside.

· The word is things should generally improve going into the new year.

· The industry is hoping for better demand with more limited supplies after first of the year.

Poultry Market Update for the week of 12/5

2011-11-30T15:38:00.000-08:00

· The poultry market is still making headway with its supply issues. Cut backs have kept supplies in check and demand for first of the month is starting to emerge.

· Wings and tenders are still the hottest items. Wings are nonexistent and formal market goes up every day. Tenders are still tight.

· Breast meat has a better tone and all dark meat is steady with thigh meat in the best shape.

· Reports are calling 2012 a year of higher poultry cost. This could be possible if the industry keeps supplies in checks with reduced production for as much as 4-5% tonnage compared with 2011. This industry usually lacks any kind of discipline.

Poultry Market Update for the week of 11/28

2011-11-23T11:59:00.000-08:00

· Boring…would be a good description for this week’s poultry market. Turkey is still on the brain for this week’s features, and no one seems to care about next retail needs.

· Most poultry producers are working a shorten week this week, either 3 or 4 work days, but demand is also mixed.

· Market fairly steady this week, except wings still going nuts.

· Dark meat has tightened up, especially thigh meat. Availability on fresh thigh meat is very tight and freezer stocks have dried up.

· Tenders and wings are still the hot, hot items with limited quantities.

· Overall the poultry situation has stabilized and is expected to advance in December. More cut backs will limit supplies and demand should increase for the holidays.

Poultry Market Update for the week of 11/21

2011-11-16T13:29:00.000-08:00

· The poultry market seems to be gaining some traction on pricing during a normally dismal time of the year. This is turkey time….not chicken time?! What the heck?

· Looks like cut backs are finally taking hold, with very limited supplies this week. Next week could be even worse. Some packers are only working 3-4 days nest week (so they say). I don’t think they can be as stupid this time around for cheating on increased production…..? Lately, when they cheat, it costs them big time.

· White meat and dark meat are both in good standings this week and next.

· Thigh meat bottomed last week and fresh trade levels are as much as $.10 higher this week.

· Breast meat and b/I breast are both stronger this week, with market moving last week and B/I market moving this week.

· Tenders and wings are the hottest items.

· With cut backs and only 2 wings and two tenders on bird, these items are affected the most.

· Poultry market could be bullish for December and they badly need it.

Special Chicken Market Update

2011-11-10T14:43:00.000-08:00

It looks like current cut backs in poultry market are…..finally…taking hold. Usually this time of the year the poultry market struggles with demand as turkeys take away the chicken features….but, supply chain is cranked down so much, there are NO excess supplies.
As we get closer to first of the month of December, demand should really pick up for all poultry items, front and back half of the bird.
I would strongly recommend beefing up inventories on tenders to 3-4 weeks, breast meat should start to move too- you still may have some in stock (good time to average).
Thigh meat is at bottom. December is one of the best months for fresh sales, so frozen will dry up, maybe 3-4 weeks supply there.
Bone in breast should follow soon.
Wings are still the hottest item.

Poultry Market Update for the week of 11/14

2011-11-09T15:26:00.001-08:00

· We are starting to see some light at the end of the tunnel in the poultry industry. Cut backs are finally making their way through the industry and fewer excesses are showing up.

· Breast meat and especially tenders are doing better, even B/I breast seems in better shape.

· Wings are still hot, and will continue a slow upward trend from here.

· Most bone in dark meat is steady, and even thigh and leg meat have leveled out.

· There seems to be a better call for fresh thigh meat, and export orders for bnls dark meat is back at good levels.

· This overall market could gather bullish sentiment as business demand picks up and cut backs are still making their way into December.

Poultry Market Update for the week of 11/7

2011-11-02T11:25:00.000-07:00

Market update

Thigh meat is very unsettled (to say the least). Almost a panic this week, with producers trying to find home for frozen thigh meat. Most fresh sellers are slowing down and putting more up in the freezer, with no outlet to sell it. So….train wreck!

· The formal market really doesn’t match what is going on?!? There is a fair amount of thigh meat building in the freezer, with producers needing to sell product for cash…..very scary. I don’t think this discounting on thigh meat will last very long, because December is one of the best months for fresh thigh meat. The next 3-4 weeks should be the extend of it.

· Wings and tenders are in good shape.

· Breast meat somewhat steady.

· Most bone in product holding steady.

· More cut backs will take place in November, with potential better poultry markets for December..…..better late than never?

Poultry Market Update for the week of 10/31

2011-10-26T12:31:00.001-07:00

Market Update

· Weak…most chicken meat and parts are weak, except not wings and tenders. Demand is very, very sluggish.

· Breast meat and thigh meat are both showing signs of weakness.

· Some of the bone in items associated with the bnls parts are at least steady, but jumbo boneless white and dark meat are not in good shape.

· Wings are the star, but they are even starting to see resistance.

· Cut backs are still desperately needed, but with weak demand, not sure how much they will help in the near term.

· Another chicken producers bites the dust; a smaller company called Cagle’s filed chapter 11 last Thursday. They will try to cut debt and stay in business, but the outlook for poultry is still dim for the next 6-9 months. This industry is in turmoil.

Poultry Market Update for the week of 10/24

2011-10-19T14:25:00.000-07:00

Market update

· It will be the week of the two’s next week, and business seems to correspond with that time of the month.

· Breast meat is a little sluggish this week in anticipation of slower business sales next week. Trade levels are a little lower on breast meat.

· This market could be stuck in a rut for a month or two before we see clear direction and hopefully a pickup in demand, because the supply chain seems in better shape.

· Thigh meat now seems to be on the downward trend. More inventory is showing up in freezers as fresh sales slow. This could happen for a few more weeks, and then fresh sales should pick up again in late November and December as foot traffic in malls increases for the shopping season.

· The formal thigh meat market is off a little this week, but over next 2-3 weeks should come off another 12-17 cents.

· Tenders and wings are in decent shape, and most bone in dark meat is also holding steady.

· Producers will probably have to make additional cut backs into the winter to insure some kind of profitability next year, but let’s see if they are smart enough!

Poultry Market Update for the week of 10/17

2011-10-13T08:26:00.000-07:00

Market Update

· The poultry market keeps chugging along. Overall, it seems like white meat is in better shape. Breast meat is not being discounted as it was last few weeks, and overall availability is less.

· Tenders and B/I breast also seem to be in better shape. Cut backs and bird weights seem to finally be working their way through the system.

· Bone in dark meat seems o.k., but thigh and leg meat seem weaker.

· Frozen thigh meat is definitely more available, while fresh thigh meat has slowed down.

· I am surprised that the formal market on both has not come down yet, but it should very soon.

· Wings are hot..by far the hottest item out there. Still going up most days.

· More cut backs are coming…last week year over year chick and egg placements were down 10%.

· The industry may finally be figuring it out!? Hopefully it’s not too late, to salvage a little profitability for this year? But I doubt it.

Poultry Market Update for the week of 10/10

2011-10-05T15:45:00.000-07:00

Market Update

· All is quiet in the poultry industry. There is optimism that further cut backs are still on the way to help breast meat pricing, but we’re still seeing adequate to a little excessive inventory.

· Pricing still very subpar considering corn around $6.00. corn has dropped from $7.50, but still a long way from profitability even at $6.00. Most poultry producers now have their hopes pinned on a mid November sustain cut back target date. They are hoping most cut backs will be in full force by then, with year over year cut backs equating to 9-10% less over all birds and weight similar to year prior. If this truly is the case- (which these bozos don’t always tell the truth) - the pricing should start moving up?! We shall see.

· Most items are steady this week, with trade levels on breast meat a little higher than last week.

· Dark meat seems to have slowed down, and I still expect the formal market on thigh meat to drop soon.

· Wings still the hot item, and everything else fairly steady.

· First of the month retail ads seem less prevalent, but inventories and export market keep inventories in check.

Poultry Market Update for the week of 10/3

2011-09-28T13:54:00.000-07:00

Market update

· The breast meat market has improved somewhat. The formal market has held steady this week and trade levels have improved a lot.

· Townsend is closing their two plants next week permanently with no buyers surfacing. That should help some.

· Guessing about 20-30 loads of fresh breast meat will be coming off the market next week- still not enough to help prices, but enough to stabilize at current levels.

· Wings are still short of supply and prices still going up, while dark meat has stalled some.

· Thigh meat should start to relax availability and pricing, maybe by second week of October the market could start coming off.

· Availability seems to be more predominant on both fresh and frozen, meaning prices should start slipping soon.

· Cut backs slowly continue to materialize as more rumors surface on who’s going out of business next? O.K. poultry’s name comes up a lot, wouldn’t be surprised if they are next with more to come by the end of the year. OUCH!

Poultry Market Update for the week of 9/26

2011-09-21T14:18:00.000-07:00

· WOW! white meat is STINKY with a capital ‘S’.

· Breast meat and somewhat tenders are very weak this week’s ship.

· Wings are the ONLY item that is good, and good is an understatement. They are actually HOT!

· Dark meat seems steady, but hard to believe that thigh meat can stay that way considering breast meat is so weak? Most likely going into October, thigh meat should back off some.

· Although some interesting news is surfacing with China, and how the U.S. is seeking a fair trade with US exports into China. This will take a few months to resolve, but should help dark meat immensely.

· Corn is still relatively high and loses continue to mount the poultry industry, something will give in the next couple of months, most likely more sustained cutbacks and more bankruptcies should control the supply chain for higher prices soon…the sooner the better.

Poultry Market Update for the week of 9/19

2011-09-14T13:09:00.000-07:00

· Can you say S-T-I-N-K-Y ? I can, and I think this industry is now deserving for what is about to happen. After months (almost a year now) of over-production, and billions of dollars of loses? THEY CONTINUE TO OVER PRODUCE! Come on!? Enough is enough! I think the only solution, and it will probably happen by the end of this year, is much less producers. We are hearing some smaller, weaker players are on the verge of bankruptcy. This will be the only thing that may save this industry.

· Wings are HOT…the only thing that is, thigh meat and leg meat are steady, but probably not for long?

· Breast meat is in the pooper. It’s that simple. Let’s see how bad it will really gets and for how long.

· Townsend Poultry, the two plants that were bought out of Bankruptcy earlier this year from the Ukrainian company is closing its doors next week. The Ukrainian company looked at our way of business and said “we are out of here, the American’s way of business is crazy” That it is!

Poultry Market Update for the week of 9/12

2011-09-07T13:17:00.000-07:00

Market update

· Like the Oregon Duck football team, boneless breast meat has laid an egg! The Labor Day Holiday and mixed demand has not helped the supply chain.

· Still seeing some excess breast meat this week!? The holiday has really messed things up. On top of it, I think some companies are working this Saturday? STUPID!!!!!!!! This should be a time to shorten up on production, but NO! the greed hasn’t changed! This industry needs some discipline, badly!

· Corn still trading at $7.50 and above through September 2012….that is challenging still for the next 12 months. Should definitely be more bankruptcies right around the corner.

· Everything else seems fairly steady, wings are the hot item right now, but also thigh meat seems tight? No upside, but supplies are limited.

Poultry Market Update for the week of 9/5

2011-08-31T14:46:00.001-07:00

Happy Wednesday! It’s the last day of August, and that means tomorrow begins National Chicken Month! The holiday, which seems to have no historical background whatsoever, is sponsored by (surprise!) The National Chicken Council! How does one celebrate this month, besides eating a ton of chicken? Well, you can start with sending an ecard to your favorite chicken buyer. After that, learn about Mike, the Headless chicken, who lived for 18 months without a head! And remember to brush up on your chicken trivia, and learn to properly do the chicken dance.

Have a wonderful rest of your week and a great Labor Day. We will be closed on Monday, September 5^th, thus we will be on a holiday delivery schedule. For more information, please see our website.

Market Update

· Corn, Corn, Corn….it’s all about feed cost. Corn and soy meal, which is the input to poultry, beef, and pork is on the rise. New crop reports are showing reduced crop harvest anticipated for this year crops. Corn and soy meal are expected to hit new highs in 2012…that is not good news for the poultry industry. The poultry industry has not even been able to digest $6.00 corn, let along $8-$9 corn!?!

· Pain and misery for the next 12 months with higher poultry cost is in the cards; not sure if the poultry industry will get to profitability in the next 12 months.

· It maybe bankruptcies that help this industry get to break even.

· Something will have to give here in next 3-4 months for this industry to raise prices and recapture their input cost. Breast meat is a little sluggish compared to last week; Labor day and Hurricanes creating some issues.

· Tenders and wings are still hot.

· Dark meat is steady.

· The cut backs are still happening. Year over year, we are seeing 6-7% declines, I think it will take 10-12% year over year, before the industry will get to profitability………….we won’t see that for 6-9 months.

Poultry Market Update for the week of 8/22

2011-08-18T11:21:00.001-07:00

· What goes around will soon come around? Looks like the poultry industry is finally getting its crap together! Bird crap and a lot of it! Or maybe a little less? Less birds and less meat available. Hot weather has really hurt bird weights, along with cut backs (finally) taking its toll. There could actually be some shortages for Labor Day holiday!?

· We could see a good run up in white meat going into the holiday, and with more cutbacks showing up, we could hold the pricing for most of September.

· Other proteins are stronger pricing, and poultry pricing will be catching up shortly.

· Tenders, wings, and thigh (and leg) meat are the hottest items, but breast meat, B/I breast, and hindquarters are very strong too!

· This uptrend is a long awaited event, and it should continue. The industry is cautiously optimistic.

Chicken Market Update- Week of 8/15

2011-08-10T12:48:00.000-07:00

· Hot weather is the theme for this week’s poultry industry. The excessive heat is lowering bird weights while in extreme situations killing thousands of birds.

· Demand is still soft, but the other variables are keeping supply limited.

· Leg, thigh meat, and tenders are the items with biggest demand and limited quantities, while breast meat and wings are in decent shape.

· Going forward greater cut backs should actually be in store over next few weeks and should limit poultry supplies into Labor Day.

· If the hot weather continues, the perfect storm could be brewing for month of September.

· A cautious optimism is the current tone heading into August.

Chicken Market Update- Week of 8/8

2011-08-03T11:03:00.000-07:00

Market Update

Weather is extremely hot and helping in reducing bird weight and supplies. Although demand is still sluggish, supply is even more sluggish.
All dark meat is tight; from thigh meat to hindquarters.
Export orders are good for August, and domestic demand is better for thigh and leg meat.
Tenders are trading at a premium, and wings are very stable.
Continued cut backs should keep the pricing trend upwards . This increased value for white and dark meat should help some in the near term.
Corn costs are also trending up as weather continues problems for this year’s crops.
All in all, the poultry industry has many issues to overcome in the next six months, and consolidation will be one of them.