Pacific Food Distributors Market News Blog

Chicken Market Update- Week of 7/30

2012-07-26T09:38:00.000-07:00

· Corn and soy prices are the main topic of discussion the last few weeks. These are the components of chicken feed. The Midwest drought has brought the feed cost to all-time highs, most protein producers are currently liquidating herds and flocks now, as feed cost has risen.

· At the poultry level, the producers are working six days a week to bring bird weights down now, as the feed conversion later on will be too expensive to maintain.

· So now a jumbo bird takes 62 days from start to finish, they begun to lower weights and feed only 58-59 days going forward. This will cause extra meat on the market this week and next, but after that the shorter feed cycle will lower weights 5-8% going forward. This should help lower supply and feed cost into August.

· After that, they better start thinking of cutting back head count, otherwise a sea of red will be waiting for them.

· Most items are in relative good shape and actually short on wings and tenders. Bnls breast meat seems to be the most troublesome currently, but after bird weights are lowered, it too should tighten up.

· Most dark meat is balanced, with leg and thigh meat in higher demand.

Chicken Market Update- Week of 6/11

2012-06-06T11:14:00.000-07:00

Market Update

· The chicken crossed the road last week from the stinky mess of the market.

· This week the bleeding slowed on white meat, but accelerated on dark meat.

· Leg meat and thigh meat are now searching for a bottom.

· Overall the market looks negative.

· Wings are the only item that has some stability. Everything else is very shaky.

· Breast meat looks to be forming a bottom, but tenders have a way to fall.

· It looks like the export markets may be putting pressure on demand, which in turn is adding more supply domestically. Not a good recipe considering the domestic market demand is suspect to begin with.

· Hopefully demand will pick up in the next few weeks in support of the 4th of July holiday, otherwise it could be a long and miserable summer for the poultry industry.

Chicken Market Update- Week of 5/28

2012-05-23T13:32:00.000-07:00

· We are continuing the poultry roller coaster…………I think I just lost my cookies!

· Getting right to the point…..it sucks! Mainly white meat is in bad shape for this week ship, bnls breast and tenders are leading the charge.

· Tenders are just feeling the heat, but breast meat is just downright nasty. Lack of business and further processing needs are just not there.

· The Memorial Day holiday has messed up further processing because of the long weekend, and lack of any retail volume means a very sick market.

· Most charts from last few years shows the same trend, I guess we just forget year to year, that we see a pull back. This pull back was hard and fast. It should correct some next week, but the formal market on breast meat should go down a few more times this week.

· Wings are still in great shape, an unusual time of the year, but wings too should slow down soon.

· Dark meat is in decent shape, except leg meat. Leg meat is struggling and should… sooner or later effect thigh meat, but we haven’t seen it yet.

· Fresh thigh meat sales are still good.

· On breast meat market : I think this will be the case..EXCEPT we will not see the August and September run up like in 2010, that was an bird weight problem with Tyson,

· I think we should flat line around $1.60 market after a Memorial Day sell off near the $1.50 range, but this is all speculation of course.

Chicken Market Update- Week of 5/21

2012-05-18T08:40:00.000-07:00

· Things are still very rosy in the poultry market. With Memorial Day right around the corner, there is much optimism.

· All white meat is short in supply, from breast meat, to tenders and wings….all is in very heavy demand. The market has advanced in response to that demand.

· Dark meat has also been in the spotlight. Most dark meat demand has been in retail needs; mainly drums, thighs and hindquarters.

· Leg meat has been the one item that has been sluggish.

· Thigh meat volume has been good, but with leg meat sluggish, pricing on thigh meat seems to be staying put.

· Wings have stood out as the biggest demand item on a normally sluggish time of year, although breast meat and tenders seem to be following its seasonal trends, with potentially more upside to come.

The poultry market trends are very bullish

Chicken Market Update- Week of 4/23

2012-04-19T13:33:00.000-07:00

Market Update

· Retail has picked up and the items chosen for ads are in dark meat; drums, thighs, and hindquarters.

· Drums are in short supply, while thighs are also hard to find.

· While white meat (mainly breast meat) is still abundant, although prices are stable, tenders are still short.

· B/I breasts have tighten up.

· Wings are still a wild card. The pipelines are still unfilled, so the supply and demand are in line.

· Thigh meat demand has also risen for fresh, so frozen inventories are in short supply.

· Overall the tone is bullish.

Chicken Market Update- Week of 4/16

2012-04-12T08:25:00.000-07:00

Market Update

· Easter is over and retailers are featuring poultry for the next few weeks. Demand has picked up for some for white meat items, bone in dark meat is the biggest feature this week.

· Drums and B/I thighs have moved up on the market, and hindquarters are also in high demand.

· Thigh meat was higher yesterday, and is expected to move higher.

· Tenders are also hot.

· Wings have finally moved lower on the market, finally we are seeing some small relief.

· Overall the tone is still bullish, breast meat should make a move within 2 weeks, as BBQ season kicks in full throttle.

Chicken Market Update- Week of 4/9

2012-04-05T14:10:00.001-07:00

· The week before Easter, and all is very quiet. Poultry is sitting on the back burner for retail ads, so breast meat demand is very sluggish.

· Wings are steady, but cracks in the foundation are starting to show up. There should be relieve very soon.

· Tenders are still tight, thigh meat and hindquarters are also still in high demand and supply follows suite.

· Overall supplies are adequate on most lines, we demand spotty at best.

· The industry is hoping for better demand after Easter.

Chicken Market Update- Week of 4/2

2012-03-29T13:21:00.000-07:00

· Easter is right around the corner, weather is beautiful in most of the U.S. (except here), and demand has picked up this week for most parts of the bird.

· Wings and tenders are still hard to source (of any size).

· Thigh meat is in high demand.

· Breast meat has picked up.

· Overall most chicken parts are balanced, could even say wings and tenders are definitely short and demand should pick up after Easter for retail needs.

· I would say the next move would be up for breast and thigh. Wings are the only item that may be a little over valued right now, but with the 5% cut backs it’s hard to gauge what fair pricing is.

Chicken Market Update- Week of 3/26

2012-03-22T13:25:00.000-07:00

· The poultry market is steady and stable for this time of year.

· Normally during Lent season the market can be somewhat volatile, because of slack demand. Cutbacks have helped the situation with lack of supply with the lack of demand.

· Tenders and wings are still tight and wanted.

· Thigh meat is also just as tight from the supply side, but increased pricing has temporarily slowed the demand side. With continued tight supplies, when demand returns, there should be more upside on pricing.

· This is the week of the two’s, so breast meat has lagged some, but pricing seems still fairly stable.

· After Easter, demand should start to increase, higher than normal temperatures (this time of the year) in the SE, NE and Midwest states should spark the BBQ season and help poultry demand.

Chicken Market Update- Week of 3/19

2012-03-15T12:03:00.001-07:00

Market Update

· Wings and Tenders are currently nonexistent. A little panic buying is going on right now, but there are a few items which are very hard to find.

· March Madness is helping wings, but should subside over next few weeks. Also, some out front buying is putting pressure on wings.

· Processors are grabbing all tenders.

· Thigh meat is the next item which is becoming scarce, and I mean scarce. If this is an indication for forward months, we all are in big trouble. All dark meat….. bnls and bone in is tight. Expect retailers to feature these items heavily after Easter.

· Breast meat is the only item with a little excess inventory this week, but with the weather improving back east and Easter and Lent season approaching, supplies should tighten up, big time.

· Forecast for poultry remains bullish for this summer, demand should heat up.

Chicken Market Update- Week of 3/12

2012-03-08T13:25:00.000-08:00

Market Update

· It’s still a mystery; the chicken market never ceases to amaze! From out of nowhere we are seeing bullish technical moves. The technical chart on all poultry items are flashing a very, very STRONG buy signals. I think many buyers are starting to believe the cut backs and the state of supply maybe actually for real!? I think it is.

· Also there is no quick solution to increased production, since the breeder stock has been reduced, so the current industry couldn’t hurt itself (which it would), if it wanted to. How about that? So….if demand patterns increase (which they will) and industry weights hold steady (which they should), then the breast and thigh market could hit all time highs! Which it might, after Easter, when weather is better, BBQ season heats up, and supply holds stable.

· This will be a very interesting summer. Frozen stocks are very limited, which could also contribute to limited supplies.

· Hard to call this year, but volatility will definitely be in the cards.

Chicken Market Update- Week of 3/5

2012-03-01T13:36:00.000-08:00

Market Update

Can you say HOT !!!! Like sizzling ! Demand has picked up drastically, and now breast meat is short this week!?

· The formal market has gone up 5 straight days with possibly more to come. The higher prices for beef and pork has spurred big demand for underpriced poultry.

· Sanderson reported earnings this week and they are still awful, those ding dongs haven’t figured out supply and demand yet! And although the sales were up 10-20 %, they still are losing money!? That’s capitalism at its best? Got to love it, the bigger they are….the more they lose!

· The good news is demand has picked up…the bad news is…the greedy industry most likely can’t manage the supply.

· Wings looked to have leveled out for now, but should continue to fall after March Madness.

· Most white meat items are short of supply, thigh and leg meat are on the upward move also, with chicken sausage demand…right around the corner, the availability should dry up.

· All in all, the light is a little brighter at the end of the tunnel.

Chicken Market Update- Week of 2/27

2012-02-22T11:05:00.001-08:00

Market Report

· The market seems balanced. For the week of the two’s, things seem o.k.

· With beef and pork prices on the rise, poultry seems to be the ad item of choice.

· Lent seems to be slowing protein items some, but for the start of Lent, things are fairly active.

· Wings are the only item that are most neglected.

· Dark meat and most white meat are in balanced shape.

· Overall, business as usual.

Chicken Market Update- Week of 2/20

2012-02-15T12:42:00.000-08:00

Market Update

· Poultry weights are still heavy, but demand has also picked up some. Breast meat has leveled out and actually pick up a little momentum.

· Higher beef prices have created more poultry retail ads. The trend could continue in the short term.

· Breast meat trade levels are 3-5 cents better than last week, but the end of the month is getting near.

· Whole birds and WOGS are the hot item right now, also bone in dark meat is in good demand.

· Jumbo wings are struggling, but medium and small wings are still short of needs.

· Thigh meat availability seems average and pricing hasn’t changed much.

· As weather improves, pricing should increase too.

· Overall the industry is in decent shape!

Chicken Market Update- Week of 2/13

2012-02-08T11:09:00.000-08:00

Market Update

· I’m starting to believe there is very little credibility in the poultry market. It’s hard to understand what it actually happening these days, when information is slanted, availability is shaded and information is outright withheld or exaggerated. But one thing is clear, over production is still the issue. When this is the case, production availability is usually guarded or sheltered until the selling heats up. So usually the buyer doesn’t know if there is excessive inventories or minimal inventories. I think this leads to the volatility, because the buyers never get a straight answer. It’s dog eat dog.

· Breast meat seems to be better this week than last…… But crap, that could change tomorrow, because someone could release a bunch of product they were waiting to sell and trying to seem like they were sold out. That’s how this game seems to be playing out, not showing all the cards. This brings much confusion and unpredictability, but it does seem breast meat and tenders have leveled out (for now).

· Wings are still fairly steady, but would expect some discounting soon.

· Dark meat seems very steady, other than drumsticks.

· Thigh meat seems steady with freezer stock still limited.

· Overall a better tone, but no light at the end of the tunnel…yet.

Chicken Market Update- Week of 2/6

2012-02-01T14:52:00.000-08:00

Market Update

· Well the hangover from the poultry show is over and reality has set in……..there is still too much $#@!#%$ chicken out there.

· Mild weather has helped grow outs with increased bird weights and just zero demand. This means heavy discounting on breast meat and increased availability on dark meat.

· Hearing word of excess drumsticks and leg meat.

· Hindquarters were nonexistent…..now are available.

· Tenders are sloppy…….wings are still hanging tight with also whole breast seem in good shape.

· Corn prices still hover in $6.50 range, and it looks like the industry went from a little profit to back in the red. They need to get their pooh-pooh together, now with beef prices on the raise…poultry could be the value protein.

Chicken Market Update- Week of 1/30

2012-01-26T13:11:00.000-08:00

Market Update

· Well, the national poultry convention is this week in Atlanta.....grab a beer and let's hear the B.S.

· The breast market is actually a little sick in this week of the two's. Not much demand and a fair amount of discounting. Most producers are trying to get to the convention, so they’re trying to clear and discount inventory to get the job done quick. Hard to figure what's specifically going on, because of the convention, but it doesn't look good for breast meat....but it is the week of the two's and it is still January.

· Most dark meat is still in great shape...except drumsticks.

· Most bnls dark meat is in great shape to firm in pricing.

· Wings have hit a wall finally, with the Superbowl coming up....should see some help in pricing and product becoming more available.

Chicken Market Update- Week of 1/23

2012-01-19T07:47:00.000-08:00

Market Update

· Steady as she goes………………would describe this week’s action. Not too hot and not too cold; just right (for now).

· There are positive indicators that are showing stronger forward trends.

· B/I breast have been going up daily- they are like wings were a few weeks ago, before they went nuts. B/I breast will eventually affect bnls breast.

· Leg meat has also been moving up, and that will help thigh meat. Thigh meat seems in much better shape, very tight inventories, which should move pricing up very soon. Trade levels have improved considerably.

· Breast meat is a little sluggish this week, but inventories are in no means in bad shape. The reduced egg and chick placement will not let the market sag too far. The breast meat pricing is a little less next week, but will probably only be temporary.

· Wings are still moving up! Not sure where resistance is? Maybe none if supply doesn’t improve.

· Next week is the national poultry show, getting my liver in shape this week for all the heavy hitter drinkers next week. Someone’s got to do it.

Chicken Market Update- Week of 1/11

2012-01-11T14:25:00.000-08:00

Market Update

· Things are looking brighter for the poultry market. Demand has picked up in retail and food service.

· White meat and dark meat seem to be in better shape this week.

· Wings…wings…wings…wings…there are none available, and what’s there is hard to find. It should be like this for another few weeks and then should settle down some, but prices should hang at elevated levels for a while until inventory catches up.

· Overall tone is solid, and companies have been making money again. The bleeding has stopped at least for now.

· B/In breasts have now picked up momentum for retail; it might be the next item to fly.

· Tenders have hit resistance, but are maintaining.

· Things are looking brighter !

Chicken Market Update- Year in Review

2011-12-28T14:45:00.000-08:00

This is the last week of a miserable year for the poultry industry. They will want to put this year behind them, and hope a for good 2012. GREED, GREED, GREED was the tone for 2011. The poultry industry assumed that their less expensive protein would garner all the demand from other proteins higher prices. They were greedy and wrong. So wrong that several of them bit the dust in 2011. Now that long overdue cut backs are in season, there is optimism again for 2012, but the GREED hasn’t left. The challenges lay ahead for the U.S. Poultry industry as demand has actually been shrinking for last 3 years and the industry has ramped up production. They are in the cross roads of the U.S. poultry industry with a fairly pathetic history of good judgment.

At least for the next two weeks, there will be supply constraints with shorter holiday weeks and demand for first of the month needs. tenders and wings are non-existent with prices moving up daily, not sure where resistant levels will be.

· Dark meat will be steady to stable and breast meat has some strength this week.

· Bone in breast is also seeing up money.

· There is a lot of optimism for 2012 and that is scary in itself.

Chicken Market Update- Week of 12/26

2011-12-21T13:34:00.000-08:00

Market update

· A lot of bullish sediment this week from the poultry industry, but it’s not showing up in the breast meat pricing for next week.

· The holidays always brings reduced kills and supply, but it seems like demand is not appearing either. There was discounting all this week on breast meat, and it seems thigh meat has caught the same flu.

· Now it seems fresh thigh meat has slowed some and discounting has also shown up here. I would think we should see some relieve on thigh meat pricing very soon.

· Tenders and wings are still HOT! And cut backs have made product hard to find.

· Hindquarters, drums, and rest of the bone in retail dark meat is in great shape, just the jumbo, food service items are still struggling some.

· Sanderson’s earnings came out this week, and they were bad. They lost 21.6 million in the last quarter, and most likely will lose more this quarter. Hopefully they will figure it out before they run out of money! More cut backs are needed.

Chicken Market Update- Week of 12/19

2011-12-15T13:35:00.001-08:00

Market Update

· The market seems in a little better shape on white meat. Demand is a little better, and supplies are more limited this week.

· The next few weeks with holidays, we may see reduced kills, but should also see less demand.

· Wings and tenders are still hot items.

· Breast meat a little better.

· Most dark meat is steady, with hindquarters in highest demand. Wings could continue to be short for the next few months.

· It will be interesting to see how the producers manage supply with the holidays, if managed properly the breast market, both bnls and bone in could advance.

Poultry Market Update for the week of 12/12

2011-12-08T15:06:00.000-08:00

· Wings, Wings, Wings….that is all anyone gives a crap about. Just wings; everything else is just in a holding pattern.

· Fresh breast meat seems a little more neglected this week. Very weak demand, although limited supplies…still can’t keep prices from falling some.

· Bone in whole breast seem hard to find, although the prices on formal market hold steady even as packers can sell for more money.

· Dark meat has seemed to level off.

· Leg meat seems more abundant, which in turn should help keep thigh meat prices steady (for a few weeks).

· After December, thigh meat and leg meat should move down some as fresh needs subside.

· The word is things should generally improve going into the new year.

· The industry is hoping for better demand with more limited supplies after first of the year.

Poultry Market Update for the week of 12/5

2011-11-30T15:38:00.000-08:00

· The poultry market is still making headway with its supply issues. Cut backs have kept supplies in check and demand for first of the month is starting to emerge.

· Wings and tenders are still the hottest items. Wings are nonexistent and formal market goes up every day. Tenders are still tight.

· Breast meat has a better tone and all dark meat is steady with thigh meat in the best shape.

· Reports are calling 2012 a year of higher poultry cost. This could be possible if the industry keeps supplies in checks with reduced production for as much as 4-5% tonnage compared with 2011. This industry usually lacks any kind of discipline.

Poultry Market Update for the week of 11/28

2011-11-23T11:59:00.000-08:00

· Boring…would be a good description for this week’s poultry market. Turkey is still on the brain for this week’s features, and no one seems to care about next retail needs.

· Most poultry producers are working a shorten week this week, either 3 or 4 work days, but demand is also mixed.

· Market fairly steady this week, except wings still going nuts.

· Dark meat has tightened up, especially thigh meat. Availability on fresh thigh meat is very tight and freezer stocks have dried up.

· Tenders and wings are still the hot, hot items with limited quantities.

· Overall the poultry situation has stabilized and is expected to advance in December. More cut backs will limit supplies and demand should increase for the holidays.