Forex

Automated Forex System Trading - Maintaining Positive Expectancy

noreply@blogger.com (Kishan) — Fri, 08 Jul 2011 12:49:00 +0000

By Benjamin Theranbak

What is Positive Expectancy?
Positive expectancy sounds like something a motivational speaker would talk about or a psychiatrist. In fact, there are some people that use the term for those reasons. This article is about using the term in the context of Forex trading strategies, STATISTICS, and MATH. One of the major advantages from using an automatic Forex trading system is built in discipline that maintains a high POSITIVE EXPECTANCY that can lead to large profits. Positive expectancy defined in its most simple form, is that on the average, there is a probability that you will make more money than you will lose.
If the Forex trader gets nothing else from this article the MOST IMPORTANT POINT that must be understood is that WITHOUT POSITIVE EXPECTANCY in any Forex trading system automatic or otherwise, there are no money management procedures or trading techniques that will prevent you from losing all your money.
Most traders confuse positive expectancy with the probability of winning. Forex traders and especially Forex system developers love to brag that their system "picks winners 97.3% of the time", and fall for the easy but incorrect logic and "feeling" that a high percentage of wins means a high profit. Sadly, this is NOT TRUE! Winning 97.3% of the time will not generate Forex profits if the 2.7% of losing trades wipe out your account. Confusing win probability with positive expectancy is what ultimately leads to Trader's Ruin.
Trader's Ruin is the mathematical certainty that over time the trader will lose all his money to the market if he trades without positive expectancy. Many very successful traders and auto Forex trading systems have a win probability of about 40%, with a high positive expectancy that returns huge profits.
If an automatic currency trading program wins 9 out of 10 times (90% wins!), and the average win is $10 but the average loss is $100 - that system has a negative expectancy and will lose money!
If an automatic Forex currency trading system wins once every 20 trades (5% wins!), losing an average $5 each losing trade but makes an average $100 on each win, that system has positive expectancy and over the long run will make money.
Did that tie your brain in a knot? Let's explain a little further.
To be able to say an automatic Forex trader, or any system, has positive expectancy means that on average the system will make more money than it loses. On any given trade, it may win or it may lose, but the average over time and many trades is profitable. This should include costs and slippage and be measured over an absolute minimum of 30 to 100 trades, preferably many more.
This analysis assumes the Forex trader and the Forex trading tool are properly capitalized and the trades are properly sized to reasonably ensure the system will survive the inevitable periods of losses.
"Properly capitalized" means you have enough money in your account that you can make properly sized trades and survive long enough for the average returns to grow your account. If the account is too small, it is much more likely a run of losses will wipe you out before you have time to generate profits.
"Properly sized" trades means that the average size of expected profit on any trade is large enough to cover expected average losses plus trading costs and still have positive expectancy.
"Exit loss" will be defined for this article as the amount the trade will be allowed to move against us before it is "stopped out" by our stop loss setting and we exit the trade. This applies to both winning and losing trades.
"Costs" in Forex trading are usually in the form of "bid/ask" spreads, Forex brokerage fees or commissions are usually small or non-existent. There are still real costs that figure into the expectancy of the system.
"Slippage" is defined as the difference between the price a trader expected to pay when a trade is ordered and the actual price paid. The Forex market is always moving and if the market moves against our trade, the time between our contract order and when it is executed in the market may allow the price to change. A good Forex automated trading system has an average known slippage value figured into the system also.
To make this easier to understand, let's put some numbers to it. These are simplified examples to illustrate the concept and the numbers may or may not match real FX trading strategies.
If my automatic Forex trading system follows a set of rules that allows an exit loss of $10 before it is stopped out, and my costs are $10, and my "slippage" averages $5 then my average loss will be: $10 exit loss + $10 costs + $5 average slippage = $25 average loss per losing trade. These trades are generally trades that immediately move against the trader.
If the trader executes each trade at $1000/trade and if my Forex trading system has an average winning trade of $50 (which includes the $10 exit loss), after costs and slippage we have $50 -$10 -$5 = $35 profits.
Now all we need to figure out our expectancy is to know our probability of a winning trade. Let's start with a system that has a 50% chance of winning. So this system has the same winning average over time as flipping a coin.
The Expectancy Equation
Pp = Probability of Profit
Ap = Average Profit
Pl = Probability of Loss
Al = Average loss
Expectancy = (Pp x Ap) - (Pl x Al)
In our first case:
Pp = 0.5
Ap = $35
Pl = 0.5
Al = $25
Expectancy = (0.5 X $35) - (0.5 X $25)
= ($17.5) - ($12.5) = $5
So this system trading at $1000 per trade has a positive expectancy of $5 per trade when traded over many trades. The profit of $5 is 0.5% of the $1000 that is at risk during the trade.
Now let's examine how our Forex trading techniques, rules, and behavior can affect our profits. First let's pretend we have experienced a run of losses and we are low on money because we are not properly capitalized. What happens if we lower the amount of money at risk and only trade $500 per trade? This cuts our profits in half but does not affect costs and slippage. An average winning trade is now $25, after costs and slippage we have $25 -$10 -$5 = $10 profits. This is a big hit to profits, but it is still a profit... right?
If we examine our expectancy our numbers look like this:
Pp = 0.5
Ap = $10
Pl = 0.5
Al = $25
Expectancy = (0.5 X $10) - (0.5 X $25)
= ($5) - ($12.5) = -$7.5 !!!
This system trading at $500 per trade can be expected to lose money on the average of $7.50 per trade.
NEGATIVE EXPECTANCY ! By trying to conserve money we have ensured that we will lose money! This illustrates the importance of having a properly capitalized account for the size of our trade, and the importance of watching the effect of costs and slippage. Trading many small trades can push a good Forex trading system into negative expectancy with costs and slippage.
Let's now make a different assumption, let's double our trade size and start our trading at $2000 a trade (assuming our account is properly capitalized to do this). An average winning trade is now $100, after costs and slippage we have $100 -$10 -$5 = $85 profits.
Pp = 0.5
Ap = $85
Pl = 0.5
Al = $25
Expectancy = (0.5 X $85) - (0.5 X $25)
= ($42.5) - ($12.5) = $30
We doubled the amount of capital at risk, but it has increased our net average profit per trade by SIX TIMES! The percentage gain is also increased to 1.5%, an increase of profit per dollar risked by THREE TIMES. This is a very good result.
Let's examine one more case and double our trade amount again to $4000 a trade (assuming again our account is properly capitalized to do this). An average winning trade is now $200, we are assuming costs for this remain the same traded as one lot, after costs and slippage we have $200 -$10 -$5 = $185 profits.
Pp = 0.5
Ap = $185
Pl = 0.5
Al = $25
Expectancy = (0.5 X $185) - (0.5 X $25)
= ($92.5) - ($12.5) = $80
Another nice average profit per trade. We doubled the amount of capital at risk again, but this time it has only increased our net average profits by 2.67 times. The percentage gain is also increased to 2.0%, an increase of profit per dollar risked of only 1/3 of the previous increase. From this point on, increasing the size of our trade, assuming that fees and slippage stay the same, has only a small, gradually diminishing effect on our trade efficiency as it gets larger and larger. Gross and net profits will increase, but the average percent return on our capital at risk will stay about the same.
The examples above are simplified to make the arithmetic easier and to illustrate the concepts. Lot size, leverage, and many other factors complicate the equations in real world trading but the basic concepts remain the same. Without positive expectancy, the trader is assured of losing his money.
This demonstrates that the small Forex trader needs to carefully examine his trading techniques and exercise "iron willed discipline" in his trading to ensure that he can effectively "stay in the game". Trying to do "on the job" Forex training while making small timid trades with a "too small" account is not a way to "increase or protect your money," in fact it may be the sure way to Trader's Ruin.
The joy of automated Forex trading systems and mechanical trading software is that it enforces trading discipline that keeps losses small, and lets winning positions run with built in positive expectancy. It is Forex made easy. There are websites that do online reviews of several automated systems that have the capability to do simulated Forex trading online, on a Forex demo account, so that the average trader can test them for 60 days with no risk and each has a 100% money back guarantee. Many offer suggestions for the best Forex broker compatible with their online Forex trading platform and offer full support for setting up your Forex demo account.
The beginning trader, just learning Forex trading, can learn a tremendous amount just from the running the demo accounts and can learn which is the best Forex system trading software for his or her goals. Rather than spend money on Forex training, a currency trading seminar, or trying to create your own FX trading strategies and implement them, the astute trader can let the experts do that and just test their work for profitable results. Then sit back and watch the Forex autotrading robots make money while you relax and rake in the profits.

About The Author: Ben Theranbak is an avid student of history, economics, statistics and the markets. He has an MBA, an MS in Aeronautical Engineering and is a graduate of the Naval War College. A former Naval Aviator, Ben is a skydiver and world traveler. Get a FREE report on a SPECIAL new development in FOREX trading at his website at http://trueairspeed.ws This site also offers reviews of several of the best available FOREX automatic trading systems that offer fully automated trading capability along with the ability to fully test the systems using Demo accounts or paper trading for a full 60 days along with full, unconditional 100% money back guarantees.

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Forex Blog - How to Avoid a Fake Forex Blog

noreply@blogger.com (Kishan) — Fri, 08 Jul 2011 12:48:00 +0000

By Emasaa Michael

It is sad but true, but there are too many forex scams out there and most are run in a forex blog. Anytime you are dealing with a financial instrument that requires in depth knowledge, you are bound to find someone who takes advantage of the lack of knowledge.
The forex market is littered with hundreds of products that claim the impossible financial dream. Take a look at some of the headlines: $1000 a day trading forex, How I became a millionaire trading forex, 100% automated forex profits. If you are one of those people who have fallen for a forex scam, I hear you.
The problem is that forex scam websites are being created everyday with impossible stories of making a killing trading forex in your underwear. What they forget to tell you is why they need to sell $10 forex e-books if they are making $1000 a day. The simple reason is that they sell 100 of those e-books every day.
Forex Trading is a good business. All good businesses require that you learn and also are disciplined enough to achieve your goals. I have yet to meet anyone who has turned a $100 mini forex account into $1 million. If you know the guy, please inform me.
There are traders in the forex market making huge profits, and their common attribute is hard work, long hours, constant learning and some very bad days. There is no short cut in forex trading. When you start out in forex trading, you are going to find many a forex blog promising you a short cut. These are some of the things you will notice from a scam forex blog:

Fake Forex Trading Results. Do not be cheated by forex screen shots that show a profit every day. There is no professional trader who does not have bad days. In fact, you can have long periods of losing trades. Anyone showing perfect trading results is probably lying.
Copying other content. You may be surprised but someone who is not trading has no new ideas. They will scour the internet, grab information and print it on their sites.
Selling each and every new forex e-book. When trading profitably, you tend to stick to one or two ideas that work. Anyone pretending to tell you how good each and every forex trading system is working is probably lying to you.
Dead forex blogs. It is sad but true that many forex blogs die within 6 months. There is only so much lying you can do.
A forex blog owner with more than 10 websites. Forex trading is a full time job. How someone can have the time to run more than 3 websites is still a mystery to me.

Not all forex blogs are made by scam artists. There are some that have proven over the years to offer information that is relevant to every trader. They may not be famous, but the information they have can change your life. If you are going to be successful trading forex, you should research and find a good forex system and a good forex blog that you can profit from.

Emasaa Michael has been successfully trading forex over the past 6 years. Get more tips and tricks on becoming a consistently profitable forex trader at his new forex blog.

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Why Should You Use Forex Killer?

noreply@blogger.com (Kishan) — Fri, 08 Jul 2011 12:48:00 +0000

By Bob Cotter

Anyone can make money by trading forex online. Guesswork goes into trading and the risks are great for all who chose to trade no matter the market. The guesswork can be eliminated from this through forex trading software that is simple to use and well worth the investment involved. The Forex Killer is not a pyramid scheme and there is no recruiting involved in order to make a profit off someone else's blood and sweat.
The Forex Killer is an incredible automated forex trading system that allows experienced and inexperience traders alike to make a profit trading forex. The Forex Killer is a signal generator that allows the user to know exactly when to trade on the forex market. The automated forex includes a probability calculator that allows the user to decide when to take trades and indicates when they have a seventy percent or higher chance of becoming profitable to the trader.
The currency trading software of the Forex Killer works with any market by inserting the data from that market into the system. All that has to be done once data is entered into the forex software is to follow the advice given by the automated forex. The initial cost of the forex trading software is a one-time deal with a lifetime of updates to the forex software included. The forex trading software is continuously updated to make it as effective as it can possibly be in forex trading. Therefore, once the software is purchased the only expenditure is what the person trading the market chooses to buy and sell.
There is no need for any special skills with the automated forex. No matter what the skill level anyone can use the Forex Killer. Those wanting to learn to trade forex can begin by setting up an account for demonstration purposes alone. The demonstration account requires no capital investment at all. The sole purpose is to familiarize oneself with the forex trading software.
The demonstration mode allows for the input of data on various markets and produces advice on trading forex based upon the data that one has entered into the system. Once the automated forex is understood and investment of as little as five hundred dollars can be used with a real forex account. The forex software will then allow the automated forex trading to work with any market around the world.
The Forex Killer can be used with any broker and has the ability to apply itself to any currency used in any financial market available for trade. Trading forex is extremely profitable to those that use the automated forex trading systems. The automated forex allows trading forex to be done at anytime since it watches the market at all hours making the forex market available at all times to those that wish to participate in forex trading.
Forex trading software is the easiest to use forex trading software on the market today. The only effort is in providing the forex software with the data needed for it to draw conclusions and offer advice on trading forex. Once the data is entered into the currency trading software simply hit the calculate button and have the signals generated for you on whether to buy or sell on the forex market. The last step is to place the order through the automated forex and watch your money grow.

I recommend you visit Smart Forex Live for more information and tips on Forex Killer.

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Understanding How Forex Signals Work, the Easy Way

noreply@blogger.com (Kishan) — Fri, 08 Jul 2011 12:47:00 +0000

By Steve Comet

Forex signals are the basic verbal codes in Forex Trading. They are used as indicators for good or bad trading times, and have been used for years as factors for Forex trading decisions. These Forex signals have been communicated from one Forex agent to another via telegraph and telegram in the early days of Forex Trading. Now, real time Forex developments could be viewed through the internet. Human Forex investors may create their own sets of Forex signals to complement their automated online Forex Trading tools. Newbie investors and brokers, on the other hand, may avail of the services of a good Forex Automated Trading company to get a hold of a good Forex signal generator. These generators produce Forex signals based on the behavioral patterns of different Forex currency ratings.
Where to get good Forex signal generators
Since the latest hype in the Forex industry is automated training, a gazillion Forex alerts providers have popped out of the wood work. A good way of investigating the credibility of these Forex automated trading providers is by reading reviews online. Users with bad experiences with a Forex service provider will surely post blog entries and reviews about this service provider to ensure that no other investors gets victimized again. Internet searches for these reviews are relatively easy with the existence of numerous search engines. Public forums of online Forex investors are also available online. Basic information, FAQS, and reviews regarding online forex trading tools have highly informative threads in these forums.
What's the secret in managing Forex signals?
Recognizing signals from Forex behavior, like language, entails familiarity. In time, a Forex investor will be able to get the "feel" of Forex currency movements. Of course, it helps to be informed about current world and regional events. External factors like government, economy and market psychology affect currency ratings, and eventually global Forex behavior as well.
The newbie Forex broker, in the mean time, can seek the aid of a good Forex signal generator. There's no need to worry about the risks involved in availing of automated Forex trading tools. Most providers allow potential clients to try out their systems by using play money. This process is called "paper trade". This allows the investor to test out the system before signing anything, just to find out if the strategies used by the system are compatible to his own trading beliefs. As much as possible, investors would not avail of automated Forex trading tools which veer too far away from their own decision making processes. After all these Fores automated tools are meant to act as proxy systems while s/he is unable to monitor currency rates in real time.
How exactly does a Forex signal figure in an automated Forex trading system?
Forex signal generators produce Forex signals which are indicators of ideal trading opportunities. These are certain algorithmic patterns which have been evident in successful Fores trades throughout the years. These Forex signals are then fed onto the program of Forex automated EAs or Expert Advisors. This program will then either make Forex trading decisions for the individual while s/he is away from the computer or advice the individual about what to do. Forex EAs act like wizards which monitor currency ratings through online Forex Trading Platforms. One can look at Forex signals as triggers of commands which allow the automated system to function.

Steve Comet is a pseudonym for a group of experienced forex traders. Our team has reviewed all the different forex auto programs that exist, and found out the ones with make money. Check out our forex automated trading reviews

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Forex Education = Forex Success

noreply@blogger.com (Kishan) — Fri, 08 Jul 2011 12:47:00 +0000

By M. K. Chin

In the world of Forex, only one rule is unchangeable...
That is, only someone who knows the trend and the going-on of the foreign exchange market can have the benefits of having high return rates and income and have the chance to attain success in the lucrative market of Forex.
It is no surprise to find that a growing number of people these days are keen to participate in the world's largest and most liquid financial market and a market which is essentially open for trading twenty-four hours a day. Many people have become very rich through trading in the forex market and it has allowed a lot of individuals to replace their day jobs and enjoy the comfort of working from home a few hours a week. It has also made quite a few millionaires!
If you enter the world of real time forex trading without the necessary knowledge and skill then you are almost guaranteed to lose money. However, if you take the time to learn what you are doing before you start trading with your own hard earned money then you will go a very long way towards minimizing your risks and maximizing your earnings potential.
Some have carefully studied the foreign exchange market over the years, had their forex tutorial and have planned their investments according to predicted changes. The shrewdest of investors have profited immensely, as they were able to learn the market, see disaster coming and knew exactly what to do in order to minimize their losses. Of course, learning all of these financial aspects would involve a solid Forex education.
Though Forex is a very lucrative market, where everybody can make forex money, all must bear in mind that it is not like a one day millionaire, where money will flow overnight. IF you want all things to be as fast as you can, you must think twice. Stop for a while and have Forex Training first before battling in the real world of forex.
Forex training will be your first step to success. Not only that, it will be your foundation in every trade you made and whenever you are lost, you can always count on your former knowledge about forex. Forex education brings the knowledge of professionals into your personal trading. Forex training helps you know where to enter a currency based on the direction it is taking and how to forecast that direction. Forex Training allows you to learn how to trade currencies with or without a coach. As you trade, your Forex training can truly help you become the master of your money.
Forex training sessions are designed to give new and experienced traders all the necessary tools to start buying and selling currencies in the Forex market. Forex training program would not only be for beginners who want to learn how to start day trading, but also for more experienced traders who already had some stock or futures trading experience. Forex training will help you succeed in your currency trading as you learn to trade the Forex like a pro.
Have you ever desired to learn more about Forex trade and forex finance but weren't sure how to get started? Don't worry because there is a lot of Forex Training available around. But you must choose carefully, your Forex Training and Education is your primary key to succeed in Forex. If you want to be sure of hat you are learning, take a look at BestForexTraining.com and you will see the how can you have the best forex education.

While Forex may not mean much to the average consumer, in actuality everything we know in commerce is affected by Forex. Only someone who understand the right forex education can benefit with the lucrative market of forex. So, don't be left out!! MK Chin (MBA), a full time Forex Trader and Investor can give you the most effective forex tutorial on how to trade better with forex and achieve better return rates. Visit http://www.TheBestForexTraining.com and start forex training today.

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Learning Forex Trades

noreply@blogger.com (Kishan) — Fri, 08 Jul 2011 12:47:00 +0000

By Itmar Sharom

This article is for the traders who want to make some bucks from forex trading. Before you learn more about forex trading, out of 10 traders 7 persons keep losing money in this market; and the rest work freely from their house and earn millions. Rest 30% might be those with insider news, or those with forex trading skills and knowledge. It is true; the foreign exchange market is full of crocodiles, in seconds you might lose your hard-earned money. Through forex trading want to make money, you have to build the network with so-called an insider that seems to be waste of time and energy. So, learn forex trading or do not ever think of it. If you are eager to step into this big trading game, it is better learn forex trading, before you step into it. It is true; foreign exchange, so called forex market is not for beginners. Before you start with it, you need to brush up your skills.
How to Learn Forex Trading
Using the internet to find right resources to learn forex trading you are doing the right thing. Before you learn forex trading stick to these following points.
1) Basics about FX are quotes and what makes the market move
2) Find a simple way to develop a forex trading strategy with money management
3) With the help of forex trading simulator test your trading strategy
4) Start trading with a mini FX account and feel about winning and loosing real money.
5) Before you increase your trading size, try to trade four individual weeks in a row making money.
It has been, demonstrated that most of the people fail in this trading game. Because, the two driving emotions of trading, Fear & Greed are not controlled by them. In statistical probabilities, a common set that we generally refer is "50/50" propositions. Flipping a coin is a classical example of 50/50 proposition. There is only 50% chance it will be either heads or tails. Same thing happens when you enter forex market. The winning and loosing factor might be 50/50 when you trade. However, sometimes the profit and loss ratio changes according to the movements of the market.
Why trade Forex instead of stocks?
Reason of trading in forex instead of stocks, is that forex opens 24 hours a day. In forex market, there are no restrictions if trading through a short sell position. You get an equal prospective in a rising and falling market. In forex market, trading is done in pairs; traders always get a chance to make huge money anytime, on every rise and fall of currency of one single country. Perhaps the list of advantages in Forex trading has the answer.
Continue Forex Trading for 24 hour a day
You do not need to wait until the opening of the market. One can always response to world news and movements immediately. Because forex market never sleeps. If want to be a winner in this market, you need to brush your skills. Forex market starts every Sunday 5:00 pm in New York, followed by Sydney, Tokyo, Singapore, Hong Kong, and London. As compared to other equity market, you can respond much faster to the market trend. With the flexibility of trading time in forex market, you can learn forex trading. During the free time, you can work on your trades. This means that before going as a full time trader in FX trading you can start small and can work as a part time trader. Flexibility in market and trading time helps you to learn forex trading efficiently.
High Leverage Margin
Trade margin offered by brokers is of 50, 100, 150, or even 200 to 1 of trade margin. Through, leverage provided forex traders find themselves controlling a huge sum of money with little cash outlay. For example, a $1,000 in a 150:1 Forex account will give you the purchase power of $150,000 in the currency market. Some times more leverage can give you more losses. If you do not learn forex trading properly, leverage or margins provided cannot work.
Leverage is powerful moneymaking tool. While it is not a powerful money making tool for everyone. Leverage is a essential tool in forex market, it is merely loading up on risk as many people assume. The daily average percentage move of a major currency is less than 1%, where as in stocks it can easily have 10% price move per day.

Fxchangemarket.com is a unique site which provides the complete details about the forex software [http://www.fxchangemarket.com/], forex market. We technically analysis the market by using historic data and provide daily summary of the forexmarket, which included all the information about the market like forex analysis and fore cast, Retail forex, forex investment etc.
[http://www.fxchangemarket.com/]

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Learning to Trade Forex in Seven Steps

noreply@blogger.com (Kishan) — Fri, 08 Jul 2011 12:46:00 +0000

By Adrian Faiers

If you are interested in learning to trade forex successfully, then the most common path for an aspiring trader these days is to search the Internet for information to apply immediately to their live forex trading account. The problem is that their search often leads them to destinations where there are plenty of false promises, bad ideas, negativity and an obsession with indicators. Many of the EBooks on sale today are filled with recycled concepts or incomplete strategies which the authors themselves do not use. Many authors do not earn money from forex trading but they earn their living by selling these EBooks to the novice forex trader.

This easy access to forex guru's who fuel the idea that forex trading is the holy grail of easy money, then financially feed off those same people they have sold this idea to. At the end of the day what many of these forex guru's sell is a gross misrepresentation of what it takes to trade forex for a living.

Forex Trading is not easy. You can become a good forex trader though dedication and by treating forex trading as you would any other skill. The reality is that it is hard work and must be treated with the same amount of seriousness as you would any other career.

The effect of all these gurus is that many forex traders start off overly optimistic with unrealistic goals. Whilst there is nothing wrong with a positive mental attitude but this positivity must be built on strong foundations and realistic expectations.

New forex traders normally start their career by purchasing some secret set of indicators and they are quickly punished for their naivety. Many of these forex traders then purchase a different set of secret indicators until they become disillusioned and then quit trading.

In fact, many forex traders that are now successful went through this learning process, including myself. This is only a problem if you refuse to learn from your mistakes. You need to break from this cycle of reliance on secret indicators and guru methods to be successful.

You help yourself in the beginning; by learning to think for yourself and understanding that whilst anyone can trade forex, to be successful, you must learn to BE a forex trader.
To BE A Forex Trader

To trade forex is easy, all you need is a forex trading account with money in it and then you enter the foreign exchange market and start trading.

To be a forex trader is more work. You need to grow from the starting point of having very little knowledge to the stage where you have a trading plan, understand the concepts and behaviour of the forex market and be able to trade with a cool head and understand that wins and losses are all part of being a Forex Trader.

Learning How to Trade Forex by thinking like a Forex Trader in Seven Steps.

1. Understand your place in the Forex Market

This is very important you must understand that you are very small fish in a big ocean.

In the Foreign Exchange Market the majority of the liquidity is coming from big banks and experienced institutional traders. These are the big fish. The big fish will happily enjoy you as a little snack.

You are only fooling yourself if you think it will be easy to take money off these big forex traders.

You have to learn to swim alongside these big fish and catch the same currents they do. Swimming against them just marks you as prey and sooner or later you will be eaten.

2. Learn to read the Forex Charts and Understand the Foreign Exchange Market.

Many novice forex traders believe that these big forex traders have access to some secret forex trading strategy or use a secret set of indicators, but the truth is this is just not the case.

These major forex players are using simple, but proven technical analysis techniques - most commonly horizontal support/resistance, identification of trading ranges, Fibonacci these are then coupled with fundamental themes.

Begin by accepting that the other major participants are highly experienced in the market and they make money because of experience and by a complete understanding of the core skills and not because they hold a holy grail of secret indicators.

3. Money Management

It is crucial that you understand as a novice forex trader the emphasis is not on how much you can make from forex trading but on how you manage what you have.

This is the most common downfall of all novice traders. It is common place to see a starting trader risk the majority of their account on one or two positions.

This style of trading is not sustainable and professional traders do not trade in this manner. Everyone sometime in their career will have a string of bad trades. A typical number might be 10 losing trades in a row. The question is do you have a money management plan in place that enables you to survive this?

4. Focus on the Market

Many novice forex traders open their forex charting software and activate their latest hot indicator or tool and proceed to place their trades as per the tools recommendations. This style of forex trading is unlikely to have much long term success.

When these indicators fail to generate the required profits then these traders then move rapidly on to another set of indicators.

You must focus on the forex market and understand what the indicators are telling you so that you can pick the forex trades which have the best probability of being winners.

Successful forex traders use indicators and tools as Fibonacci, Pivot points, price channels, MACD, RSI etc. These tools by themselves do not make a successful trader. There are many successful traders and unsuccessful traders who use the exact same indicators.

The key is that successful traders understands how the market behaves around the indicators and understands what the signals actually mean.

The best way to achieve this is to stop swapping between tools and select those that compliment your trading plan, understand how they work, and then spend time in the market experiencing them.
5. Plan your trade and trade your plan.

This is a common saying that seems to get lost on novice traders. It should be every trader's goal to make pips on each forex trade as per their trading plan. Forex Traders must treat each trade as a business decision by calculating their risk and defining their entries and exits points, those that do not open themselves to big losses when a trade goes bad.

Many novice traders seem to lack the discipline to follow a plan for each trade. So what happens is typically the following; a novice trader will see a potential set-up, they decide on some arbitrary sum to buy or sell with a quick guesstimate, then place the trade without analyzing any risk and having an exit strategy.

Of course this way of trading can be profitable over the short term, more down to luck than skill. But eventually the luck runs out and the trader is caught napping and a common result is a wiped out account.

The first question novice traders tend to ask themselves how much will I make on this forex trade?
The first question experience traders tend to ask themselves is how much is my potential loss / risk?
6. Your mind is your strongest asset and weakest link.

Entire books have been dedicated to the subject of psychology and its role in trading. That doesn't mean they are all going to help you, but you should take this as a sign that the subject is not to be ignored.

First you must understand the role psychology plays in trading. You must learn to understand your personality traits and how they might affect your trading style.

A trader I know is a bad loser and when he has a bad trade, he had a habit of going straight back and trying to win those pips back with even worse results. But he understands this as a weakness and when he has a bad trade, he takes a break of 20 minutes before he goes back to trading so that his emotions do not affect his trading decisions.

Second you must make it your aim to never stop learning. You cannot get yourself to a certain level and then become complacent. Every day is a learning experience in some way or other and you must be prepared to learn lessons and invest time in improving your skills and experience. The day you stop learning is the day you should stop trading.

7. Understand The Forex Market is always right or Expect the Unexpected.

The forex market is an interesting place, but there is one thing every trader needs to learn. Always expect the unexpected and do not get wrapped up in past successes. No matter what your charts or indicators tell you; sometimes the forex market will just do the opposite.

Whatever happens in the market you must maintain an objective outlook on your strategy and the forex market and ensure that bubbles and crashes do not derail you in the long term.
By following these steps and learning to become a forex trader rather than just trading the forex market, you will put you on the path to ultimate success as a profitable forex trader. This is something that 90% of all novice traders fail to achieve.

Want to read more reviews of forex trading systems, forex brokers and learn more about forex trading by a currency trader? Then be sure to check out [http://www.currency-exchange-reviews.com]
If you want the latest Forex news then subscribe to our RSS feed at my forex news blog at [http://forex-market-news.currency-exchange-reviews.com/].

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Forex Trading System - What to Know

noreply@blogger.com (Kishan) — Fri, 08 Jul 2011 12:45:00 +0000

By Alexis Kenne

FOREX is a virtual network of currency dealers connected among themselves by means of telecommunications. FOREX currency dealers are connected to leading world financial centres, and round the clock workers. Forex is a true 24-hour market, open continuously from 5:00pm ET on Sunday to 5:00 pm on Friday. With three distinct trading sessions in the US, Europe and Asia, you can trade on your own schedule and immediately respond to breaking financial news, whether it will be morning, noon or night. Forex is an inter-bank market that took shape in 1971 when global trade shifted from fixed exchange rates to floating ones. This is a set of transactions among forex market agents involving exchange of specified sums of money in a currency unit of any given nation for currency of another nation at an agreed rate as of any specified date.
Forex currency trading is conducted around the clock, 5 days a week, and daily currency trades are worth in the region of $1.9 trillion US dollars. This means that the Forex the largest market in the world and puts the major stock markets very firmly into second place. Forex trading opportunities are a reality for more and more people everyday -- people just like you and me.
FOREX is a very unique market because it is not based in any particular place, and it also has very few qualifications for investing. FOREX is also free of external controls, and the investors (participants in the market) largely determine how much a currency is worth based on demand. Forex is a 24-hour market, so 24-hour support is a must! Can you contact the firm by phone, email, chat, etc. Forex is not affected by any one bear market. Forex traders buy and sell foreign currency pairs from around the world, simultaneously buying one and selling the other.
It isn't sincerely complicated. However, there are stuff that you expect to ponder in order to victoryfully make some profit out of this very liquid monetary push. Forex is giving you a 40% return on your investment. Forex is by far the most liquid market in the world. There is NEVER a problem buying or selling a position as in the stock market.
Forex trading system is not just a big deal: it is the biggest deal. The largest amounts of money traded in the world today are not for goods, or services; not for stocks or shares, but for currency. Forex is a very risky and unpredictable business. You can lose large sums of money by taking the risk of trading in the live market. Forex is a market were participant cannot indulge in any kind of malpractices. Any single participants cannot influence the activity of Forex market.
Technical analysts in the FOREX market evaluate price trends. The only real difference between Technical Analysis in FOREX and Technical Analysis in equity markets is the time frame: FOREX markets are open around the clock,24 hours a day. Technical analysis presupposes that all the information about the market and its further fluctuations is contained in the price chain. Any factor, that has some influence on the price, be it economic, political or psychological, has already been considered by the market and included in the price.
Forex is an inter-bank market that took shape in 1971 when global trade shifted from fixed exchange rates to floating ones. This is a set of transactions among forex market agents involving exchange of specified sums of money in a currency unit of any given nation for currency of another nation at an agreed rate as of any specified date. Forex is made up of 5000 trading institutions like international banks, commercial companies, government banks and brokers for all types of foreign currency exchange. Forex is probably the only market that remains open 24 hours a day! Therefore, if you are actively involved in trading then this is the perfect playing ground for you.
It is a type of trading that allows you to buy and sell currency from one country to the next. This market is actually one of the largest in the world. Forex is maximum liquidity, FOREX is real trade, in term of business. Basically, Forex is transaction of monetary funds from one government to another or business associates of different countries.
FOREX is a more objective market, because if some of its participants would like to change prices, for some manipulative purpose, they would have to operate with tens of billions dollars. That is why any influence by a single participant in the market is practically out of the question. Forex is a fascinating industry with roughly 3 trillion dollars being exchanged each day around the world. Forex trading is exciting yes, but it is crucial that you become knowledgeable about Forex trading, or you will lose your money. Forex is made up of 5000 trading institutions like international banks, commercial companies, government banks and brokers for all types of foreign currency exchange.
Forex trading is a trading 'method' also known as FX or and foreign market exchange. Those involved in the foreign exchange markets are some of the largest companies and banks from around the world, trading in currencies from various countries to create a balance as some are going to gain money and others are going to lose money. Forex is a relative new market. The Forex market is developing fast, yet it already is the largest financial market in the world. Forex is the one stabilizing factor in the world's system of monetary exchange, yet it is not answerable to any extrinsic stabilizing influence. There are "no restrictions" in this market.
Forex is quoted on a "bid" and "offer" price system. This means you can buy a currency from a dealer for their "offer" price. Forex market is definitely not a game for newbie and you need to brush up your skills before getting your hands wet. Forex trading is a high-risk investment and as such, it can lead to substantial losses and is not meant for every investor. Risk capital is the amount of capital that you dedicate to speculative investments and that you can afford to lose.

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Online Forex Trading Secrets

noreply@blogger.com (Kishan) — Fri, 08 Jul 2011 12:45:00 +0000

By Tunde James Akinlabi

I am here to share some knowledge, tips, strategies and insights of how to successfully buy, sell, trade and invest in online Forex trading. FOREX or Foreign Exchange is the largest as well as the most liquid trading market in the world and there are many people involved in FOREX trading all over the world. A lot of people claim that the FOREX is the best home business that could be pursued by any person. With each day, more and more are turning to FOREX traders, via electronic means of computer and internet connectivity.
This means that foreign exchange is not delivered to a person who actually buys like stock trading, FOREX trading also has day traders that purchase and sell foreign exchange same day. Thus, FOREX is not a get-rich-quick scheme as many people thought which complicates the real concept of online Forex trading.
Unlike stocks and futures that trade through exchanges, Forex trading is done through market makers that include major banks as well as small to large brokerage firms located around the world who collectively make a market on 24 hours - 5 days basis. The Forex market is always "open" and is the largest financial network in the world (daily average turnover of trillions of dollars).
Forex trading involves trading currency pairs such as the EUR/USD pair (Eurodollar/US dollar pair) where a buyer of this pair would actually be buying the Eurodollar and simultaneously selling short the US dollar.
Here's the deal: Just like any other market, most "traders" are losing when trading Forex. And the reasons for their failure are mainly because some lack good trading methods, sound money and risk management principles and indiscipline trading attitude. In most cases, it could be wrong mindset and motive towards the market. Some don't even understand the trend of the market, of which the trend plays a vital role in the life of any trader, as it is simply says that "the trend is your friend".
Moreover, many have been mislead by dishonest individuals or questionable brokers promising outwardly overnight riches and hidden policies.
Forex is still a little like the "wild west", so there's naturally a lot of confusion and misinformation out there but I'm here to cover many tactics and strategies used by successful Forex traders all over the world. Unfortunately, only few Forex traders are actually aware of this information.
Forex trading is all about regulation, willpower and determination. Leveraging your strength could be extravagant by organizing the appropriate Forex trading strategy. You may find hundreds and thousands of Forex trading strategies out there. All Forex trading strategies use a variety of indicators and combinations. These indicators and studies are just calculating support and resistance and trend in the Forex trading market.
What you are about to read is more valuable to you than what you will find in many trading courses or seminars that you'd have to pay for. Anyway, I don't believe in sugarcoating anything or giving you false hopes of success. There are enough swindlers doing that already. I want to give you the facts, like 'em or not, so you're empowered to take action and make positive decisions on how to succeed in the Forex markets.
There's nothing magical about the Forex markets, because all markets are ultimately driven by human psychology - fear and greed - and supply and demand. Sure, every market has its own peculiarities, but if you understand how the basic drivers of human emotions work, you can potentially succeed big in Forex market, because the market controls 95% of live trader's emotions. Some traders think it's a "get rich quick" trading the popular Forex markets.
There are many advantages of Forex trading over other types of financial instrument trading like bonds, stocks, commodities etc. But it does not mean that there are no risks involved in the Forex trading. Of course there are risks associated with Forex trading. Therefore, someone needs to understand all the terms related to Foreign Exchange carefully. There are many online sources as well as offline sources that provide hints on trading of Forex. These hints are basically the SECRETS.
As I said above, the foreign exchange trading is considered as one of the most profitable and attractive opportunities for investment as any person can easily do at home or office and from any part of the world. For succeeding the Forex trading, a person is not required to do any online promotion, marketing etc. The only requirement in the Forex trading is the account that a person is required to open with reliable and registered brokers, a computer system and fast internet connection.
Now, you have to be careful when opening a Forex account with any broker because some could be SCAM. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in US has jurisdiction over all Futures and Forex activity. When trading in the foreign exchange markets, individuals should only trade with a CFTC registered entity that is also a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and is regulated by the CFTC. For non-US broker/ bank entities, be sure that the broker or bank is registered with that country's appropriate regulatory bodies.
The Forex account could be opened with any amount between $300 (mini) and $2000 (standard). After opening the account, a person is required to learn how the Forex market works, demo trade and after a while go live trading. Moreover, there are some secrets that have to be followed.
A person can also apply all the secrets when demo trading and can see if the secrets really work. It could be said without any doubt that if someone can apply all the secrets in right way, he/she can easily gain good money by way of Forex trading.
All successful traders have Forex trading strategies that they follow to make profitable trades. These Forex trading strategies are generally based on a strategy that allows them to find good trades. And the strategy is based on some form of market analysis. Successful traders need some ways to interpret and even predict the movements of the market.
There are two basic approaches to analyzing the movements of the Forex market. These are Technical Analysis and Fundamental Analysis. However, technical analysis is much more likely to be used by traders. Still, it's good to have an understanding of both types of analysis, so that you can decide which type would work best for your Forex trading strategies.
There has been misconception about the Forex market because there are different types of traders and advert out there full of exaggerations that makes the business unreal to so many people and that is why I am here to show you the SECRETS in Forex Trading.
What is traded on the Forex market? The answer is money. Forex trading is where the currency of one nation is traded for that of another. Therefore, Forex trading is always traded in pairs and the most commonly traded currency pairs are traded against the US Dollar (USD). They are called 'the Majors'. The major currency pairs are the Euro Dollar (EUR/USD); the British Pound (GBP/USD); the Japanese Yen (USD/JPY); and the Swiss Franc (USD/CHF). The notable 'commodity' currency pairs that traded are the Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) and the Australian Dollar AUD/USD. Because there is no central exchange for the Forex market, these pairs and their crosses are traded over the telephone and online through a global network of banks, multinational corporations, importers and exporters, brokers and currency traders. But if you really want to make it big in the Forex market, I will strongly advise that as a "beginner" in the business. Kindly get acquainted with one or two major currency pairs. Study them very well and make sure you understand their volatility period.
And to further simplify Forex trading, you could easily limit your trading to the two most liquid and widely traded pairs, the EUR/USD and the GBP/USD. This really starts to reduce demands on your time for trading activities without giving up good profit potential.
Traditionally, currency trading has been a 'professionals only' market available exclusively to banks and large institutions, however, because of the invention of the new E-economy, online Forex trading firms are now able to offer trading accounts to 'retail' traders like you and I. Now almost anyone with a computer and an Internet connection can trade currencies just like the world's largest banks do.

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Forex Secret - Forex Literature As A 90-95% Of The Traders Lose Their Deposit (Part II)

noreply@blogger.com (Kishan) — Fri, 08 Jul 2011 12:42:00 +0000

By Vyacheslav Vasilevich

(See beginning of this article under name Forex Secret. Forex Literature As A 90-95% Of The Traders Loose Their Deposit. (Part I)
B. Williams quotes 5 bullets killing a trend, whereas I exemplify their insufficiency and I add up 11 more thereto, not denying the above 5 of them.
B. Williams idealizes the Elliott wave theory, whereas I show that the combination of fives and threes is none the idealizable, otherwise a mankind 100-year development project could have long been elaborated on the basis of Elliott waves pattern, leading to exasperation at the fact that humanity progress does not follow Elliott and Williams. The other thing is that nowadays brokers have mastered the job of manufacturing more waves out of the 5 initially.
The aforesaid is applicable to each of the 20 problems of Forex.
A portion of my live Forex trading methods are to be found in this book, while the other portion thereof is forwarded upon request. Those eager to continue training under my supervision as well as to trade live, please, feel free to contact me on my e-mail address below.
It all could be funny unless it were sad. But IT IS sad, because the above examples are scaring in number. Bearing it in mind, do, go again through excerpts from distinguished scholars books:
- Awesome Oscillator (AO) serves us keys from the Wonderland;
- Accelerator Oscillator (AC) gives us with significant superiority over other traders;
- using AO is similar to reading tomorrow's "Wall Street Journal", while using AC is reading of the day-after-tomorrow's issue thereof;
- by using AO solely, one may attain profits even without any knowledge of current rate; should the oscillator turn down, one may merely ring one's broker and say: "Sell at the market price!".
As You have guessed, these are extracts from B. Williams's "New aspects of Exchange Trade". Have You read the thing? And now, please, give a glance to the a foregoing figure, depicting the way, the vaunted Williams's indicators may entail an abyss of losses.
But what truly makes my blood boil is as follows. B. Williams is a professional psycho therapist and his narrative style is none of an incidental one. This is a suggestive method by virtue whereof he attempts to demonstrate the exclusive, correct and faultless nature of his trading technique. The "faultlessness" is to be discussed in an individual chapter, and my only claim here is that I can easily draw hundreds of examples, where one can bump into loss by way of following Williams's indicators.
By myself, I am an advocate of theory of chaos. But this theory is disclosed by Williams in a very primitive and a superficial manner, which fact results in his blind follower losses. As to the author, he resorts to propaganda methods instead of providing a clearcut distinction between the cases, where the above theory is 100% effective and those, where it is not.
Williams could have explained to his admirers directly, that in these certain instances the theory is to be relied upon, while in these instances it is not to. The difference is in this, this and this. In the former instances one should necessarily enter, whereas in the latter instances one should abstain from entry. But the guy haven't done the job (due to either not being desirous or to not having sufficient knowledge).
I was a success in finding out distinct operability criteria of the Williams's technique. To achieve this, I had to improve the Alligator, by virtue whereof I enabled my students to easily pinpoint the difference between the Williams No.1 option (a trend, encouraging profits) and No.2 option (a flat, inflictive of losses).
By the by, it is supportive of the chaos theory methodological correctness and of imperfect Williams's method structure, plotted on the basis thereof. Instead of acting upon the trader's consciousness Williams resorts to forbidden subconscious programming procedures, thus stimulating man's inherent and acquired instincts as if saying: "If You wanna get rich, follow me! My method empowers one to trade without a single glance at a price! The Awesome Oscillator constitutes a key from a Kingdom!" Etc., etc., etc...
Hence, only 1 of 20 Williams's followers exhibits Forex-earning capabilities in a most favorable environment. Thus, under this statistics, B. Williams is better not to be idolized, the way he has been by the crowd of his admirers. On the other hand, other Forex maestros' trading techniques are far worse than that of B. Williams. So, let's continue illustrating Forex truisms being erroneous in live trading.
- The "Theory of Chaos" of B. Williams. The author has not advised what should be added up thereto. A separate chapter here is dedicated to the issue.
- Trader's psychological problems. I haven't found any revelations pertaining to THE WAYS OF ELIMINATING THESE PROBLEMS.
- The issue of a stop-loss order is certainly important: even under trend hedging is an indispensable protective shield against market surprise. But is the problem too far complicated to require a dozen pages' elucidation? Has the author beheld any secret? Wah! He hasn't noticed anything but he still has repeated all that wanders from book to book on Forex.
Once I was stunned by a question put forward by one of my students after having read B. Williams's "Trading Chaos": what's the use of giving so much attention to the stop-loss problem and above all what's the good of chewing over the role of safety cushions in the automobile industry as though readers are down with minority?
Doubtlessly, it's funny reading that Williams has never violated traffic regulations, priding himself on the occasion. Any psychiatrist could tell a hell lot about such a personality type, although, I should admit that Williams is American, not Russian.
Drawing picturesque, memorizing examples, each scholar is right to insist on protective barrier placement as a loss killer. But there is hardly anyone to introduce certain novelty into the issue and to disclose the secret as to what there should be in the trader's store besides a stop-loss to insure against his deposit melting and extra losses. A separate chapter here is targeted at the issue.
I have shortly come across an aphorism: "Genius is not to the effect, that nothing can be added thereto, but it is to the effect that nothing can be deleted there from".
If You go through numerous books on Forex at this aspect angle, You are sure to surprisingly find out that 90-100% of their contents may be subject to withdrawal. WHY?
BECAUSE nothing new and 100% correct is offered therein. Instead, reiteration is going on of what is familiar to any professional, since everyone is itching to exhibit one's originality by way of retelling: a paramount authority of FA over Forex exchange rates; continuation and reversal patterns; a stop-loss importance; a divergence being a component of a trend reversal, etc., i.e. book-to-book travelers.
"An outstanding Forex trading techniques" and "a genius scholar", etc., making their appearance in books' abstracts and annotations are off springs of 1% originality added up by an author to 99% of common knowledge.
Sale is publisher's primary target, giving birth to "genius" mediocrities and plagiarism. Standing separately among these books are opuses by B. Williams, being admired and scrutinized regularly by the majority of scholars and by myself. But EVEN HE cannot be qualified as "genius" with account to the above formula. He is rather "eccentric" than "genius".
The thing is not, that his technique is addenda-allowing (this fact backs the correct Williams's choice of the chaos theory to be applied to Forex) and I easily managed to add 11 trend-assassinating bullets to the 5 of Williams. The thing is that a number of Williams's postulates ARE WRONG and thus loss- inflictive. These can be and should be subject to removal.
CONCLUSION: I guess, it's understandable by now, that script-writing has turned to be business for scholars, incorporating additional advertising and additional charges for their students. However, the above is not worth millions Forex losers sacrifice.
Much more respect-triggering is Warren Buffet, having made a minimum of USD40 bn at the stock market without writing any books on his trading tactics. W. Buffet is the world's second-rich man after Bill Gates, although this fact being thoroughly doubtable. B. Gates is supposed to declare the whole of his income obtainable from the Microsoft Corporation, whereas W. Buffet, being a trader, is sure to deem himself entitled to show the Inland Revenue what he really wants to.
The difference is fairly evident. The profit obtained from US companies, constituting the Gates official fortune major portion, may be kept track of, as well as the offshore profits may sometimes be properly checked. But Buffet's profits attractable at all. Do You expect a man, lending his own daughter a sum of USD20 against a receipt, to allow ALL of his profits to be taxable by state? Or a moderate portion of profits is sufficient, yeah? It is entirely his job, whereas we are to learn to gain at least a spoonful of what he has acquired during 40 years of his activity at the stock exchange.
Thus, to cut it short: a classical Forex literature exhibits but an anti-scientific unsystematic nature, constituting a "crise de genre" and triggering losses among 90% of beginners, abandoning Forex market.
In what does science differ from a philistine and amateur effort? In a systematic and objective nature, in a methodology perspective. In there any of the above to be found with scholar literature on Forex? No, but instead there is in abundance:
A. Tautology and absence of new approaches. From book to book world-distinguished scholars feed traders (as if the latter were silly little chaps) with stories about R&S levels importance, technical indicators, continuation and reversal patterns, etc., which is as interesting and instructive for a professional trader as ABC reading is for a professor of philology.
B. Absence of integrity. Individually, it is all clear: Elliot waves, Fibonacci levels, resistance levels, reversal patterns, etc. But what's the way it all is interconnected and integrated? In what way it is influential over each other? What is primary and what is secondary? Imagine a doctor diagnoses and cures patients without a slightest idea of interaction of digestive, cardio-vascular and other systems.
This is what exactly happens to Forex beginners. They are sure to have learnt something, but they are being muddleheaded instead of having a systematic knowledge. Medical students undergo a course of anatomy. Geologists and military men make use of topographic maps. And what do Forex beginners have to this end? You are free to interrogate any scientist if he has knowledge of parts of science without having knowledge of the whole. Guess, what he's gonna answer? And now give consideration to what is being currently published on Forex and being accessible to anyone. Thereafter You will easily "evaluate" the "outstanding contribution" made by each of Forex scholars.
4. Methodology and techniques subjectivism and absence of objectivity. See live scholar, Th. Demark's "Technical Analysis As An Emerging Science" recommending to manually draw R&S lines from the right to the left instead of so previously doing from the left to the right. The book's preface qualifies it to be "refined techniques built during a quarter of a century of a laborious scrutiny of market tendencies and projecting methods". And thereinafter: "Demark's empiric-data strictly scientific approaches are in striking difference from an artistic intuitive one thus constituting a rational basis for dynamic systems, mechanically outputting market signals." But, with having not disclosed his system's essence, is Demark aware that his subjective Forex trading suggestions may happen to entail severe mistakes. Yeah, he substantiates his viewpoint in chapter "Why price projections may not go into effect": "...due to no technique being perfect". Good a science with "no technique being perfect"!
Demark is looking rather a philosopher, than a trader with his tirade being nothing but a sophism, made use of as back as in ancient Greece to provide grounds and protection for any kind of absurd.
In accordance to Demark, "a mistake becomes obvious the next day as soon, as the first deal price is registered". I am itching to ask the scholar: "How many points may a currency travel in a wrong direction during an earth day?" I am answering myself: 100 pts or 200 pts or more. Demark diagnoses: "This instance evidences a breach, indicative of a new opposite tendency". Well, I've got it.
Once there is loss, one should loss-close and enter oppositely.
Take a look at the picture below:
Fig.10. EURUSD H1 chart as of March, 22 - April, 18, 2005 manifesting a month-long flat. (See Note below)
How many days should one per-Demark loss-close with the rate repeatedly swiveling as though to Demark's ill luck? The scholar has to be asked, how large should a trader's deposit be to survive Demark's experiments, being ranked "refined techniques" and "strictly scientific approaches", "cardinally different from others' ", less scientific ones, as I can guess.
The opus author will again fall soothing upon You: "One oughtn't to expect herein outlined technical methods and indicators to offer profits and not to entail losses. Forex trading involves both: a profit opportunity and a loss risk. Preceding results are in no way guarantor of perspective success". Further on, with greater cynicism and hypocrisy: "Should You be seeking a trading panacea, put this book aside: it's in no way helpful to You". Well, what's the use of buying the book at such price?
Demark, by the way, gives the interpretation of his book's objective to be "fuelling readers with methodology, encouraging one to systematize various TA techniques". Great! I thought, it were a new discovery of Forex regularities to be delivered to traders. But it looks, like the scholar has plunged himself into systematizing earlier 50%-correct discoveries without taking any pertinent responsibility.
Hence, no avail to purchase the book and to litter one's brain therewith, since Forex rates enjoy 50/50 up-down travel chance, even under the probability theory.
Thus, not too much understandable, where Demark's scientific approach manifestation is to be searched, whereas the essence of things is incomprehensible once the reversal results come evident after an earth day only with no reference to his book.
John G. Murphy, another Forex scholar, outlines in the preface, that the "less art - more science" slogan is specially topical now that greater entities begin taking interest in this area.
As to myself, I have truly appreciated the preface writer Murphy joke as being filled with subtleness and tristesse.
Now, pertaining to science-to-practice correlation and theoretical conclusions implementation... How many scholars of those hundreds referred hereto resort to live examples while teaching long and short entries and close ups thereof? Very few of them:
- B. Williams "Trading Chaos", "New aspects of Exchange Trading";
- J. Murphy "TA of Futures Markets"
- S. Nisson "Japanese candlesticks. Financial markets graphic analysis"
- A. Elder "Basics of Exchange Trading"
- L. Williams. "Long-Term Secrets of Short Term Trade"
- Ch. Lebo, D. Lukas "Computer Analysis of Futures Markets"
- D. Swagger "TA, Comprehensive Course"
... and hardly few more.
Disappointing enough, but it is fairly lucid why 90% of beginners mutate into failures and abandon Forex.
By way of getting familiar with the SYSTEM, one will suddenly realize how smooth are Forex artifacts to get apparent one from another, e.g.: M5 Elliott waves constituting M15 wave I, this wave being but H1 and H4 corrective within certain Fibonacci levels.
One gets clear vision of what all the Forex-traded currencies are doing now and what they are going to in half a day. Williams did have grounds to claim, he needs several tens of minutes to analyze tens of charts. He DID have understood Forex as a system, though he has offered but the system components portrayal in his books. Depending on where utilized, the Alligator may appear to be responsible either for a profit or for a loss. But Williams has not even taken pains to present a differentiation between the Alligator being a profit assistant and the Alligator being a loss bringer.
The above is conditioned by the Williams Alligator being a great TA tool, but pertaining to a certain AREA OF Forex only. Other areas require other TA facilities. I will do my best to teach You to effect proper estimation of long-term and super short-term entries being appropriate for the moment.
I will also dwell on why it is not difficult to add extra 11 trend-killing bullets to the 5 of Williams's; why it is easy to build up a currency travel vector daily projection. The whole thing is minimized to several criteria, being constantly effective irrespective of currency intentions. As a result, You will not have to monthly pay quacking mountebanks' impotent daily forecasts.
But now let's move on with Forex scientific criteria. Stagnation and dogmatism are alternative attributes of Forex folios' anti-scientific substance. Have You ever come across a criticism of any Forex-oriented theory? I mean a weighed objective criticism, assigning credits to the author for elaborating a revolutionary theory, which has by now got obsolete due to a number of objective reasons and thus requires improvement, i.e. replacement.
For instance, I have found nothing of the kind in relation to the 100-year old Dow theory, originally incorporative of benign principles. But life goes on, and there seems no reason to head-hammer life-rectified Dow's postulates:
- a long-term trend (primary, basic as per Dow) being several years long. Curious enough to spot a currency pair to stand open for so a long period;
- a medium-term trend (intermediate tendency) being several months long. As per Dow, the MTT is opposite (corrective) to the basic trend;
- a short-term trend, not exceeding 3 weeks and incarnating minor fluctuations within the intermediate tendency;
- intraday trend being per-Dow midget ripples, not worth paying attention to.
You are now welcome to take a close look at the figures below, as of October, 2004 through March, 2005.
Fig.11. EURUSD D1 chart. (See Note below)
Fig.12. GBPUSD D1 chart. (See Note below)
CONCLUSION: This theory of Dow's might be deemed effective rather till late 80s, than presently.
Nowadays, with 3 pips spread, 50-200 pips pullbacks and trends not exceeding a week, the Dow theory
MUST BE recognized as being despairingly obsolete and trader-hostile, since, under a 3-pip spread, it is, certainly, top of recklessness and stupidity to stand open for months or years. A different trend classification is to be called for, meeting updated Forex environment standards.
I guess there's no need to continue being proponent of the fact that presently Forex theories are obsolete in their majority, with this sort of methodology being requisite for analysts rather than for traders. As opposed, I hold it more appropriate to forward my entry and exit technique to traders willing to conduct successful and loss-safe trading.
By way of prompting: please, attempt to view Forex as a system inclusive of components being familiar to You: Elliott waves, reversal patterns, Fibonacci levels, MAs, ally currencies, etc. All the above staff is integrally intercommunicative rather than existing individually, the way, each organ is in the human body.
I DID have understood it, and I realized the way B. Williams is able to analyze tens of currencies within tens of minutes in order to execute correct long and short entries.
It may look surprising to someone, but a qualified doctor is capable to diagnose Your body hazards after a short examination and talking to You. The doctor has actually examined but several organs, but his knowledge system has empowered him to jump at wider conclusions, as Williams at Forex.
GROSS TOTAL. Steady and regular Forex profits are real opportunity. There is hardly another area which enables one to knock up a fortune without having rich aged relatives abroad, without having to join one's native country's throughout corruptible authorities or else. If You have discovered THAT ANOTHER area, You are free to get engaged therein. Then, Forex is not likely to be requisite.
Note:
Full text of this article and pictures of examples http://www.masterforex-v.su/
If you wish to be trained on Trading System Masterforex-V - one of new and most effective techniques of trade on Forex in the world visit http://www.masterforex-v.su/

Vyacheslav Vasilevich (Masterforex-V)
Professional Trader from 2000 year.
President of Masterforex-V Trading Academy.
Author of Books:
1. Trade secrets by a professional trader or what B. Williams, A. Elder and J. Schwager not told about Forex to traders.
2. Technical analyses in Trading System MasterForex-V.
3. Entry and Exit Points at Forex Market
http://www.masterforex-v.su
http://www.masterforex-v.org

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Forex Secret - Forex Literature As A 90-95% Of The Traders Loose Their Deposit (Part I)

noreply@blogger.com (Kishan) — Fri, 08 Jul 2011 12:42:00 +0000

By Vyacheslav Vasilevich

This delusion globally entails identical aftermaths: 90-95% of traders turn steady to loose their deposits having studied books by Bill Williams, Alexander Elder, Thomas Demark, J. Schwager, et al.
Following the burn down of their first deposit trader's plunge themselves again into scrutinizing Forex scholars, in this manner suffering losses of the second, the third and subsequent deposit. I will hereinafter try to elucidate where from the above regularity grows, so that no trader repeats his forerunners' mistakes.
This statistics is common knowledge: 90% of traders constitute Forex losers... But the figure has always been giving rise to a leviathan of my doubts. It isn't because of somewhat different 95%-5% loser-to-winner ratio quoted in the Van Tarp and Brian June "Intraday trading: secrets of mastership". With 90% quoted universally, there naturally emerges the question, as to whether there is someone capable to check, to specify or to disprove the above figure.
NO ONE IS, besides the directors of largest Western banks providing streamline Forex quotes, but having never raised the issue.
WHY? Because should this statistics be published, there will be sharp and ultimate decline in number of those chasing easy profits from the world Forex market. Otherwise banks would not keep mum in advertising purposes. Neither would they be silent if losers constituted at least by few points less than 90%. In any advertising, customer attraction is ensured by quoting beneficial maxima and non-lucrative minima. This has always been, is being and will always be a universal practice.
As a conclusion, 10% Forex winners is a maximum result among traders. It's them, who have understood Forex market absolutely simple truisms and who attained steady daily earnings in amounts being gained by others within years or even the whole of life.
Certainly, those are to be recollected, who in late 80s were the first in the ex-USSR to grasp laws of commerce and who began accumulating their initial stock. The rules used to be so simple that presently any schoolboy or a first-year student can show the way the capital might have been easily scraped up and augmented on the USSR debris and in the course of market relations being established in the post-Soviet space.
I do exactly allow for the fact that through the years a new generation will be laughing at the way we are now incapable to comprehend the laws, where under currency rates either spike up or fall down, all of a sudden.
With this provision, those seeking fast money at Forex have a much greater time limit than the ones engaged in capital building in the post-Soviet space (Forex market is incommensurably greater than that in the ex-USSR), but not to the extent thought by many.
By now trends are thoroughly less numerous than they used to be 10-20 years ago. By way of taking a glance the charts history You are in the position to understand the way traders used to earn under 20- 40 pts spread, commission and slippage. A trend was followed by a trend at that epoch.
AND WHAT'S NOW? Nowadays many of traders are impotent to gain under 3 pts spread without commission and slippage.
Thus, this book is intended for those willing to perceive Forex market laws.
In order to get understanding of the way 5-10% of successful traders obtain profits, let's at the outset analyze the reasons and the way the outstanding 90% of traders suffer losses. The 90%-figure looks scaring, to say nothing of 95% or 98%. It occurs despite the amount of literature on the issue equals to hundreds of fundamental books, written by authors, having gained capitals expressed by means of more than 7-digit figures (G. Soros, B. Williams, A. Elder, T. Demark).
Thus, the above minimum of 90% of smart, well-read, broad-knowledged people:
- scrutinize the really great traders' heritage;
- open accounts with Forex Broker's and banks, start trading and...
- loose funds up to complete rout!
AND WHERE'S THE LOGIC? The answer springs to mind by itself... There's something wrong in the literature (by the way, recognized throughout the world, where the deposit-killing statistics is as disappointing as it is in our country) so long as its studying yields such oppressive results.
STRANGE? No, rather natural, than strange on account of the following:
1. Being a great trader is not indicative of everyone being a great teacher.
2. Multitude of rules elaborated by scholars 10-40 years ago, has grown obsolete, since the Forex market is changing.
3. The scholars HAVE NOT revealed ALL the secrets even WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE THEN
FOREX, therefore by now their advice and recommendation turn out either obsolete or naïve.
Thus, once one's advice and recommendations bring every 9 of 10 market participants to loose their money in each country, where one's books have used to be published and have enjoyed all sorts of hosanna in the press, THEN ONE IS NONE OF A TEACHER.
Naturally, no trader will reveal his professional secrets to the full. But when studying Forex literature one gets astonished by a negligible extent the above secrets are "confided" at all, with a book on Forex containing 99% of common truth and 1% only of useful novelties. But should one train up even several thousands perspective traders, one will in no way burden oneself with competitors, due to the Forex market huge sale nature. Beyond a shadow of a doubt the above traders are really great. You may agree or not, but anyone, having earned USD1 bn or more, deserves being named "great". So, one's books should be published as memoirs. I am not attaching any irony hereto, since these persons have acquired gains by virtue of their minds and labor, as opposite to Rockfellers, who inherited their fortunes or to Russian oligarchs, who either stole or got their capitals dirt-cheap from state authorities.
Hopefully, understandable is the difference between such editions and manuals for beginners.
G. Kasparov, say, is far from writing manuals for chess beginners, since the job can be better completed by others with this fact not at all undermining Kasparov's being a great chess player. And his advice and recommendation is sure to be of interest rather to a close circle of grand masters, than to those having touched the chess for the first time.
Actually Kasparov is but to be respected for not being tempted by the lust for fast money, by virtue of his name in the chess world and by way of cooking up manuals for beginners.
At Forex, by contrast, and for some reason, everyone deems oneself a teacher, which fact results in millions educated people worldwide leaving stock market being disappointed, angry with an inferiority complex life-time pursuit.
And hence, the unanswered question for them: is that all a fraud or not, since gains are midget, whereas losses are titanic?
I am recalling the book titled "The Alchemy of Finance" by G. Soros (the one I've read in early 90-s). I admit, it's interesting, instructive..., but it is all narrated in so an inarticulate and tangled manner. As indicated in the foreword by an American investor, the theory has hardly been understood by few only.
So what's the use of writing in such a manner? A theory may generally be complicated to any extent, BUT IT MUST BE wrapped in a simple, clear and understandable wording.
You are welcome to attempt to read the above book once You have time to. Shortly, the Soros reflexivity theory of the countries' cyclic development may easily bear a couple-sentence confinement:
1. Following liberation from totalitarian yoke, a country is granted credits, then, there is a rapid growth and flourish of economy.
2. As soon as the above credits are to be paid back, a country's economy faces a natural recession.
Is it as difficult? The question may be addressed to a schoolboy (to say nothing of an American investor): when should those countries' companies' shares be purchased and when they are to be advantageously sold in order to acquire maximum profit? What's going to happen in case one is too late to sell the shares, shortly exhibiting an impetuous growth in price?
Propounded long before, the Soros theory has been entirely corroborated in August, 98 by the dismal practice established in Asian and Pacific countries and later in Russia.
There still is another question: how inarticulate should Soros have been to enable his theory to be grasped by few only?
The second part of the book is not worth retelling. Reading its original is sure to be much more instructive with my annotation leaving no conundrums therein.
The theory is permeated by Soros's strategy: enter long on what's shortly going to enjoy price growth with a 100% probability and "pull out" Your money along with profits before the companies enter crisis, thus facilitating bankruptcies thereof.
This is the way I clearly lecture my students on Forex-related complexities, thus conveying my logics to them. Despite its own complexities (news, TA, corrective actions, etc.), Forex is essentially reduced to a very simple truth: at a certain moment one should not be late with going long or short on a currency with "tertium non datum".
And when asked if the Williams Alligator needs something to be added thereto, the majority of my students reply "Yes!", indicating what exactly is to be added.
I'll present a detailed vivisection of the issue in a separate chapter by way of proving that the Williams Alligator is but 50% effective.
Fig. 4. H1 EUR chart as of April 12, 2005. (See Note below)
The Alligator's jaws display upward opening with a fractal formed at 1.3006. According to Williams, one should enter long one point higher, i.e. at 1.3007. Upward motion continues extra 11 points. Then the rate sharply swivels to fall down by 170 pts.
Another example.
Fig. 5. H1 EUR chart as of April 22, 2005. (See Note below)
Please, figure out 1.3094, 16 pts above the previous fractal, following the Alligator upward opening. Thereafter, a sharp down swivel covering 140 pts.
Hundreds of similar examples may be drawn. But what are the implications?
With the Alligator's mouth opened, 50% of entries should be pro-Williams while the outstanding 50% - counter-Williams (i.e. vectored opposite to the Alligator mouth opening). When embarking on Forex, You must possess clear knowledge of the difference between either of the above 50%-portions. Otherwise..., You are doomed to loose even if You follow Williams's technique, let alone other ones.
Even my students are in the position to advise what is to be added to Alligator in order to realize proper entry vectoring. Least of all would I want this example to be taken as a personal criticism of Bill Williams, whose contribution to the Forex theory is a significant one. And the majority of traders, like me, used to begin earning after studying HIS books. But not to go astray..., even without any addenda Williams managed to make a tremendous fortune, since a skilled trader (moreover being the Alligator's father) is capable to differentiate between a steady travel and a pullback, or, say, a flat, or, visa versa, a trend low for the entry to be vectored oppositely. It is all fairly understandable for an experienced trader. But what about beginners as regards their interpretation of a flat, a recovery or a trend change?
These folks are sure to require assistance, especially, in information not presented in literature on Forex.
Without this knowledge a trader will never perceive the ABCs of stable daily earnings. But why the Forex scholars do not clear out the issue? This query is to be addressed to them, not to me. While reading these opuses, I am getting horrified at the fact that we are being foisted expensive high-sounding titled books, which are not going to ever teach a trader how to attain profits at the market.
Let's open one of them (E. Nayman's "Trader's Minor Encyclopedia" and "Master-trading: Secret Files") to get the understanding of the way almost all the books on Forex are written and supposed to have the price of USD20-100.
You may agree or not, but the name looks very beautiful and pretentious: "Master-trading: Secret Files", 320 pages of sheer secrets...
HOWEVER, I HAVEN'T FOUND ANY SECRETS THERE! You are welcome to discuss an argue Yourself:
1. "The interrelation between fundamental factors and exchange rate dynamics" being a detailed story of how a country's macroeconomic growing, benign rumors trading and political stability promote the exchange rate growth.
A "valuable" secret to be practically encountered in any Forex edition. But below is a real FA secret (not paid any attention to by Nayman): why does currency use to reverse against its country's economic news? A whole chapter here will be dedicated to the issue.
2. "Construction of two moving averages on a single chart and twin combinations thereof". The author furnishes a "wise" recommendation: entries should be made in the direction the MAs diverge (adding secretly that the most effective MA combination is 21, 55, 89, etc., as per Fibonacci).
The pseudo-secret nature of the above recommendation underlies the fact that any MA combination (should it be 21+55, as the author's; 10+20 as in many Western trading systems; 5+8+13 as per B. Williams or 1+21 as used by numerous traders) yields the same results.
Ok. It all looks great. However, E. Nayman et al., seem to have circumvented the MA intersection chief secret, through which traders suffer constant losses: a "lighter" MA has crossed a "heavier" one, say, upwards, but... thereafter there is sharp downturn resulting in the MAs intersection again.
Fig. 6. GBPUSD H1 chart as of April, 21-26, 2005. (See Note below)
A fivefold reciprocating crossing of MA 21 and 55. You are welcome to calculate traders' losses.
Now, let's call it a day with examples. The MA intersection technique operates perfectly in certain circumstances, while turning out impotent in others, thus inflicting losses upon traders. No criteria have ever been stipulated by Forex scholars as to entries to be effected pro- or counter-divergence of moving averages.
3. MACD construction and analysis. What sort of secret may one expect from the following statement of Nayman's: "a subsequent high being lower than the preceding one suggests a bullish trend depletion or even its changing with the same being visa versa under minimum MACD values". Much of a secret, isn't it? I thought it were the MACD operation principle, familiar to any Forex novice. The secret-fancier B. Williams hasn't even taken effort to advise to perform inputs change from 9, 12, 26 into 5, 34, 5 to provide for a lag killer.
Assuming the above, authentic MACD secrets are not paid any attention to by scholar, which fact inflicts losses upon traders. The situation comes into effect, when upon a divergence formation, no trend change is observed with another same-trend wave taking place instead.
Fig. 7. GBPUSD H1 chart as of April, 2005, where MA21 crosses MA55 with slight rise and sharp downturn. (See Note below)
Another example:
Fig. 8. GBPUSD H1 chart as of May, 2005: a divergence with MA10 upward crossing MA21; a brief nudge up to 1.8916 and a sharp downturn. (See Note below)
As different from Nayman and other Forex scholars, we'll touch in detail upon the ways to detect when MACD is trustworthy as a trend reversal attribute and when it is not.
4. TA classical patterns. One can not help smiling at the author sharing a secret of "head'n'shoulders" and "double bottom" patterns, being studied by beginners at the earliest lectures on Forex.
And here goes a real key secret: in what cases the patterns are indeed indicative of a reversal but in what cases brokers trap TA pattern-fanciers? Is there someone doubting the fact that patterns are known not only to traders, but as well to brokers with their mouths watering to make a rod for the backs of lovers and connoisseurs of the above patterns, just like on the sample chart below:
Fig. 9. GBPUSD H1 chart as of May, 09-11, 2005, a classical "inverted H&S" (See Note below)
At 1.8871 there's an impetuous upward breakthrough, the Alligator rotating upwards, MACD above zero, MA8 having intersected MA21 upwards, the Williams vaunted Awesome Oscillator signaling long entry, the Accelerator Oscillator pointing up... nevertheless, the rate reaches as far as 1.8916 and slips down to 1.8481 by 450 pts.
To be noted: much worth scrutinizing is the phenomenon of Nayman's "Trader's Minor Encyclopedia" and "Master-trading: secret files" purported at understanding why over 90% of traders turn losers after reading the books.
The solution, to my mind, is that the above opuses are but good "ABCs OF FOREX" thus giving birth to all Nayman's merits and demerits.
The guy is primarily awardable for having spared beginners' paying USD50-200 to various Forex training courses or academies. Instead, one can download and study Nayman's books, whose extracts are, by the way, quoted to trainees during their studies.
Nayman is generally to be expressed gratitude to, because of his having laid out the Forex basic course in a competent, popular and accessible way.
This is the point, I elucidate to every beginner, being introduced to me: first one should scrutinize Nayman's books, then only it's worth discussing hooks and crooks of earning at Forex instead of loosing.
Nevertheless, there is a chief Nayman's self-delusion about his folios really being in no way secret files with no one being able to find anything new to enable oneself to improve one's Forex earnings. These books containing neither unique techniques nor non-standard solutions are famous for the generalization and systematization of what has been the Forex knowledge prior to Nayman.
But this fact is not realized by majority gripped by the "Master-trading: Secret Files" fascination, who open live accounts and turn losers inevitably.
Shortly upon their pre-mature success on demo accounts these folks hastened to open live accounts and faced losses. But since the Dealers' staff managed to convince them in the incidental nature of the above losses, the folks ventured to go live again and did again turn to be deposit killers.
With these facts being proclaimed, I don't hold it appropriate to call any statistics science for help. Any sensible man is to get the understanding of the above losses as not being of an incidental nature.
There could be NO OTHER WAY about it.
The next trader training level comprises books by B. Williams: "Trading Chaos" and "New aspects of exchange trading", where the author propounds his own Forex trading methods along with advertising the other ones', viz. Elliott's.
My book, "Secrets Of Craftsmanship Narrated By Professional Trader Or What B. Williams and E. Nayman Have Concealed From Traders" is purported at developing of THAT particular school of training traders to practical operation at Forex.
Hardly will anyone object to the fact that B. Williams will disclose his Forex intimacies free of charge. Neither will he furnish their 100% disclosure after being paid to.
In all his splendor, Williams possessed sufficient knowledge to;
- to share A PORTION of his secrets in his "Trading Chaos";
- to share A PORTION of his secrets as a paid training;
- not to share A PORTION of his secrets in the least.
My book, "Secrets Of Craftsmanship Narrated By Professional Trader Or What B. Williams and E. Nayman Have Concealed From Traders" is also dedicated to teaching how the Williams secret methods are to be decoded properly to ensure successful Forex trading capabilities.
Each of my book's 20 chapters is permeated with a common logic aimed at finding relevant discrepancies in literature on Forex and at presenting my personal technique of Forex trading.
B. Williams declares being capable of analyzing tens of currency pairs (of 140-bar history each) that within tens of minutes, but in no way does he explain how to, whereas, I explain, that it's feasible for any wide-screen trader, provided my computer monitor being 3-currency capable only (see: "Ally and adversary currencies").
B. Williams sings about his magic Alligator, while I disclose and eliminate its pitfalls by, say, adding a MA233 thereto. This arrangement visualizes the whole of the 4 potential currency travel options: up/down above MA233; up/down under MA233.
B. Williams lists a stop-loss to be a "safety cushion", whereas I disclose and eliminate its shortcomings by way of alternatively using my own pending orders.
B. Williams hold trades volume to be authentic resistance breakthrough criterion, while I quote reasons by which trades volume turns to be deceptive on Metatrader platforms (thanks to the banks Consortium) and I introduce my own levels true/false breach criteria.
Now, regarding trading on news, I demonstrate the way one can turn a loser if trade like all the others and I offer my own on-news trading style.
(See continuation of this article under name Forex Secret. Forex Literature As A 90-95% Of The Traders Loose Their Deposit. (Part II)
Note:
Full text of this article and pictures of examples http://www.masterforex-v.su/
If you wish to be trained on Trading System Masterforex-V - one of new and most effective techniques of trade on Forex in the world visit http://www.masterforex-v.su/

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Forex Trading Course - A Must for Forex Beginners

noreply@blogger.com (Kishan) — Fri, 08 Jul 2011 12:42:00 +0000

By Zevs Borealis

In the world's major economic Marketplace where exchanges achieve up to trillions of dollars each day, many people would really want to take part in this Marketplace. Aside from being the major financial Marketplace in the world, Forex is also the most liquid Marketplace in the world where trades are completed 24 hours a day.
A lot of Traders have turn out to be extremely wealthy Trading in the Forex Marketplace. And, many people who trade in the Forex Marketplace on a daily basis have found a great way to replace their day jobs. Some even became millionaires almost overnight by just Trading in this economic Marketplace.
Trading in the Forex Marketplace can be very attractive. However, you should also know that there have been people who suffered extreme financial losses in the Forex Marketplace. It is true that the Forex Marketplace offers a very good money-making opportunity to a lot of people, but it also has its risks.
It is a fact that people who didn't have the right knowledge and skills Trading in the Forex Marketplace suffered huge financial losses and some even went into debt. So, before you enter the Forex Marketplace, it is essential that you should have the necessary knowledge and skills as a Forex trader in order to minimize the risk of losing money and maximize the potential of making money.
Many people who were doing well in the Forex Marketplace have went through a Forex Course to get the knowledge and skills needed to successfully trade in this very liquid and very large economic Marketplace.
In a Forex Trading Education, you will learn about when it is the right time to buy or sell, chart the movements, spot Marketplace trends and also know how to use the different Trading platforms available in the Forex Marketplace.
You will also be familiarized with the terminologies used in the Forex Marketplace. Even the basic knowledge about Trading in the Forex Marketplace can be a great help with your money-making venture in the world's largest Marketplace.
There are different Forex Trading lessons offered, all you need to do is select one that suits your requirements as a trader. Even crash courses where all the basic things about Forex will be taught to you in a short period of time, full time online courses, where you will learn all about Forex through the internet and there are also full time real life classroom courses where you can learn the ropes about Forex in a real classroom with a live professor.
You can also become an apprentice. On the other hand, in order to become skilled at a lot about Forex as an apprentice, you need to make sure that you have a seasoned Forex trader who can share a lot of things to you about the Forex Marketplace.
Forex Trading Online - 5 Reasons Why You Should.
o Forex never sleeps
o Forex Trading online offers great leverage
o Forex prices are predictable
o Forex trading online is commission free
o Forex trading online is instant
The FX market is astoundingly fast! Your orders are executed, filled and confirmed usually within 1-2 seconds.
Since this is all done electronically with no humans involved, there is little to slow it down!
Forex trading online can get you where you want to go quicker and more profitably than any other form of trading. Check it out and see what Forex trading online can do for you!
A high-quality Forex Trading lessons will also clarify a lot about the primary and technical analysis of charts. As a trader, knowing how to analyze a chart is an essential skill that you should have. So, when you are looking for a Forex Trading lessons, you should look for a lessons that offers essential and technical analysis instruction.
Stress plays a vital part in Forex Traders. Knowing how to deal with stress is also a skill that you should develop. A good Forex Trading Education should teach you how to deal with stress and trade successfully and efficiently.
As much as possible, you should look for a Forex Skill that offer real Trading systems where students can trade real currency on the Forex Marketplace or at least trade on dummy accounts in a simulated Forex Marketplace. This hands-on knowledge will greatly benefit you. In addition, the best way to learn about anything is by actually experiencing it. Live Trading and simulations should be offered in a Forex Trading course.
Forex trading online can get you where you want to go quicker and more profitably than any other form of trading. Check it out and see what Forex trading online can do for you!

Zevs Borealis is the founder of a number of Forex Trading Sites. You can find more info about Forex Trading Online on: More Forex Trading Info [http://www.forextradingwebsite.com] You may publish the article on your website. If you do, not change the article, and include all html as direct links to our site.

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Forex Options Market Overview

noreply@blogger.com (Kishan) — Fri, 08 Jul 2011 12:41:00 +0000

By John Nobile

The forex options market started as an over-the-counter (OTC) financial vehicle for large banks, financial institutions and large international corporations to hedge against foreign currency exposure. Like the forex spot market, the forex options market is considered an "interbank" market. However, with the plethora of real-time financial data and forex option trading software available to most investors through the internet, today's forex option market now includes an increasingly large number of individuals and corporations who are speculating and/or hedging foreign currency exposure via telephone or online forex trading platforms.
Forex option trading has emerged as an alternative investment vehicle for many traders and investors. As an investment tool, forex option trading provides both large and small investors with greater flexibility when determining the appropriate forex trading and hedging strategies to implement.
Most forex options trading is conducted via telephone as there are only a few forex brokers offering online forex option trading platforms.
Forex Option Defined - A forex option is a financial currency contract giving the forex option buyer the right, but not the obligation, to purchase or sell a specific forex spot contract (the underlying) at a specific price (the strike price) on or before a specific date (the expiration date). The amount the forex option buyer pays to the forex option seller for the forex option contract rights is called the forex option "premium."
The Forex Option Buyer - The buyer, or holder, of a foreign currency option has the choice to either sell the foreign currency option contract prior to expiration, or he or she can choose to hold the foreign currency options contract until expiration and exercise his or her right to take a position in the underlying spot foreign currency. The act of exercising the foreign currency option and taking the subsequent underlying position in the foreign currency spot market is known as "assignment" or being "assigned" a spot position.
The only initial financial obligation of the foreign currency option buyer is to pay the premium to the seller up front when the foreign currency option is initially purchased. Once the premium is paid, the foreign currency option holder has no other financial obligation (no margin is required) until the foreign currency option is either offset or expires.
On the expiration date, the call buyer can exercise his or her right to buy the underlying foreign currency spot position at the foreign currency option's strike price, and a put holder can exercise his or her right to sell the underlying foreign currency spot position at the foreign currency option's strike price. Most foreign currency options are not exercised by the buyer, but instead are offset in the market before expiration.
Foreign currency options expires worthless if, at the time the foreign currency option expires, the strike price is "out-of-the-money." In simplest terms, a foreign currency option is "out-of-the-money" if the underlying foreign currency spot price is lower than a foreign currency call option's strike price, or the underlying foreign currency spot price is higher than a put option's strike price. Once a foreign currency option has expired worthless, the foreign currency option contract itself expires and neither the buyer nor the seller have any further obligation to the other party.
The Forex Option Seller - The foreign currency option seller may also be called the "writer" or "grantor" of a foreign currency option contract. The seller of a foreign currency option is contractually obligated to take the opposite underlying foreign currency spot position if the buyer exercises his right. In return for the premium paid by the buyer, the seller assumes the risk of taking a possible adverse position at a later point in time in the foreign currency spot market.
Initially, the foreign currency option seller collects the premium paid by the foreign currency option buyer (the buyer's funds will immediately be transferred into the seller's foreign currency trading account). The foreign currency option seller must have the funds in his or her account to cover the initial margin requirement. If the markets move in a favorable direction for the seller, the seller will not have to post any more funds for his foreign currency options other than the initial margin requirement. However, if the markets move in an unfavorable direction for the foreign currency options seller, the seller may have to post additional funds to his or her foreign currency trading account to keep the balance in the foreign currency trading account above the maintenance margin requirement.
Just like the buyer, the foreign currency option seller has the choice to either offset (buy back) the foreign currency option contract in the options market prior to expiration, or the seller can choose to hold the foreign currency option contract until expiration. If the foreign currency options seller holds the contract until expiration, one of two scenarios will occur: (1) the seller will take the opposite underlying foreign currency spot position if the buyer exercises the option or (2) the seller will simply let the foreign currency option expire worthless (keeping the entire premium) if the strike price is out-of-the-money.
Please note that "puts" and "calls" are separate foreign currency options contracts and are NOT the opposite side of the same transaction. For every put buyer there is a put seller, and for every call buyer there is a call seller. The foreign currency options buyer pays a premium to the foreign currency options seller in every option transaction.
Forex Call Option - A foreign exchange call option gives the foreign exchange options buyer the right, but not the obligation, to purchase a specific foreign exchange spot contract (the underlying) at a specific price (the strike price) on or before a specific date (the expiration date). The amount the foreign exchange option buyer pays to the foreign exchange option seller for the foreign exchange option contract rights is called the option "premium."
Please note that "puts" and "calls" are separate foreign exchange options contracts and are NOT the opposite side of the same transaction. For every foreign exchange put buyer there is a foreign exchange put seller, and for every foreign exchange call buyer there is a foreign exchange call seller. The foreign exchange options buyer pays a premium to the foreign exchange options seller in every option transaction.
The Forex Put Option - A foreign exchange put option gives the foreign exchange options buyer the right, but not the obligation, to sell a specific foreign exchange spot contract (the underlying) at a specific price (the strike price) on or before a specific date (the expiration date). The amount the foreign exchange option buyer pays to the foreign exchange option seller for the foreign exchange option contract rights is called the option "premium."
Please note that "puts" and "calls" are separate foreign exchange options contracts and are NOT the opposite side of the same transaction. For every foreign exchange put buyer there is a foreign exchange put seller, and for every foreign exchange call buyer there is a foreign exchange call seller. The foreign exchange options buyer pays a premium to the foreign exchange options seller in every option transaction.
Plain Vanilla Forex Options - Plain vanilla options generally refer to standard put and call option contracts traded through an exchange (however, in the case of forex option trading, plain vanilla options would refer to the standard, generic forex option contracts that are traded through an over-the-counter (OTC) forex options dealer or clearinghouse). In simplest terms, vanilla forex options would be defined as the buying or selling of a standard forex call option contract or a forex put option contract.
Exotic Forex Options - To understand what makes an exotic forex option "exotic," you must first understand what makes a forex option "non-vanilla." Plain vanilla forex options have a definitive expiration structure, payout structure and payout amount. Exotic forex option contracts may have a change in one or all of the above features of a vanilla forex option. It is important to note that exotic options, since they are often tailored to a specific's investor's needs by an exotic forex options broker, are generally not very liquid, if at all.
Intrinsic & Extrinsic Value - The price of an FX option is calculated into two separate parts, the intrinsic value and the extrinsic (time) value.
The intrinsic value of an FX option is defined as the difference between the strike price and the underlying FX spot contract rate (American Style Options) or the FX forward rate (European Style Options). The intrinsic value represents the actual value of the FX option if exercised. Please note that the intrinsic value must be zero (0) or above - if an FX option has no intrinsic value, then the FX option is simply referred to as having no (or zero) intrinsic value (the intrinsic value is never represented as a negative number). An FX option with no intrinsic value is considered "out-of-the-money," an FX option having intrinsic value is considered "in-the-money," and an FX option with a strike price at, or very close to, the underlying FX spot rate is considered "at-the-money."
The extrinsic value of an FX option is commonly referred to as the "time" value and is defined as the value of an FX option beyond the intrinsic value. A number of factors contribute to the calculation of the extrinsic value including, but not limited to, the volatility of the two spot currencies involved, the time left until expiration, the riskless interest rate of both currencies, the spot price of both currencies and the strike price of the FX option. It is important to note that the extrinsic value of FX options erodes as its expiration nears. An FX option with 60 days left to expiration will be worth more than the same FX option that has only 30 days left to expiration. Because there is more time for the underlying FX spot price to possibly move in a favorable direction, FX options sellers demand (and FX options buyers are willing to pay) a larger premium for the extra amount of time.
Volatility - Volatility is considered the most important factor when pricing forex options and it measures movements in the price of the underlying. High volatility increases the probability that the forex option could expire in-the-money and increases the risk to the forex option seller who, in turn, can demand a larger premium. An increase in volatility causes an increase in the price of both call and put options.
Delta - The delta of a forex option is defined as the change in price of a forex option relative to a change in the underlying forex spot rate. A change in a forex option's delta can be influenced by a change in the underlying forex spot rate, a change in volatility, a change in the riskless interest rate of the underlying spot currencies or simply by the passage of time (nearing of the expiration date).
The delta must always be calculated in a range of zero to one (0-1.0). Generally, the delta of a deep out-of-the-money forex option will be closer to zero, the delta of an at-the-money forex option will be near .5 (the probability of exercise is near 50%) and the delta of deep in-the-money forex options will be closer to 1.0. In simplest terms, the closer a forex option's strike price is relative to the underlying spot forex rate, the higher the delta because it is more sensitive to a change in the underlying rate.

John Nobile - Senior Account Executive
CFOS/FX - Online Forex Spot and Options Brokerage

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