tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-77754677054917064002026-02-14T00:53:17.336-08:00The place for analyzing political races and congressional redistricting!FrogandTurtlehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04275687903076648891noreply@blogger.comBlogger140125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7775467705491706400.post-73600497956011488512017-05-25T12:30:00.000-07:002017-05-25T13:28:16.204-07:00

Democrats have another chance for a special election upset in Montana’s At-Large Congressional District. With a Republican candidate who assaulted a reporter, supports Trumpcare and is being dragged down by Trump's approval ratings, Democrats have a chance to win this special election. This congressional seat represents all of Montana. Montana is a politically interesting state. It

Alibguyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15875526702173279869noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7775467705491706400.post-65698076261825852612017-04-18T16:07:00.002-07:002017-04-18T16:08:35.755-07:00

The special election we have all been waiting for, Jon Ossoff’s special election in Georgia’s 6th congressional district is taking place today. Here is a guide with county benchmarks and data points to watch while the returns are reported.   This congressional district represents the high income northern Atlanta suburbs. It represents the northern portions of Cobb, Fulton and DeKalb

Alibguyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15875526702173279869noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7775467705491706400.post-58677594595074137412016-12-06T08:48:00.003-08:002016-12-06T08:48:51.701-08:00

In 2008, I was 14 years old and a proud supporter of then-Sen. Obama, I watched the Pennsylvania primary as then-Sen. Hillary Clinton swept the working class western part of the state as Obama swept the eastern part of Pennsylvania. In 2016, Clinton again won the Pennsylvania primary. I always viewed Pennsylvania as the consistent state that wavered, but in the end always sided with the

Alibguyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15875526702173279869noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7775467705491706400.post-20535542333072195992016-11-28T12:00:00.000-08:002016-12-06T08:47:42.941-08:00

One of the first political books I read was the Almanac of American Politics 2006 which I read as an 11 year old. It discussed how Democratic nominee Sen. John Kerry increased Democratic turnout in Democratic parts of Ohio compared to Vice President Gore in 2000. Kerry increased turnout in Cuyahoga County (Cleveland), Franklin County (Columbus) and overperformed in Hamilton County (Cincinnati).

Alibguyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15875526702173279869noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7775467705491706400.post-57447712402432963802016-05-31T09:46:00.000-07:002016-05-31T09:46:36.933-07:00

After a long process, the voting primary states have nearly ended. California is not only the  biggest prize in the calendar on June 7th, it is also the largest with 475 pledged delegates. Senator Sanders is hoping a win here will weaken Secretary Clinton’s argument for the nomination while Secretary Clinton is hoping for not only a win but a decisive win that will show she is still widely

Alibguyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15875526702173279869noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7775467705491706400.post-33390711085272023622016-04-25T08:57:00.001-07:002016-04-25T08:57:43.480-07:00

On Tuesday April 19th, Hillary Clinton won New York by 16 points, further cementing her lead and pushing her closer to the nomination. The Sanders campaign has continued to press on claiming that they can win Pennsylvania and try to halt her momentum and push the argument that she will be a weak nominee. With Sanders expected to lose Delaware, Maryland and Connecticut (and win Rhode Island), a

Alibguyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15875526702173279869noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7775467705491706400.post-51963386107141360052016-04-12T10:30:00.000-07:002016-04-12T10:57:42.401-07:00

On April 19th, the New York primary will take place. Donald Trump is expected to win on the Republican side but on the Democratic side, if Secretary Clinton wins here and she wins with a large margin (10% or more), she could solidify her position as the frontrunner and make her delegate lead nearly insurmountable in top of the media fallout that would have occurred if she were not victorious.

Alibguyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15875526702173279869noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7775467705491706400.post-74648259543792966642016-03-28T23:17:00.003-07:002016-03-28T23:17:48.917-07:00

Cross posted on racesandredistricting.blogspot.com which has more election analysis.  We are also on Facebook: www.facebook.com/... Recently, the cook political report updated its House race ratings and all ten races favored Democrats. Before mid March of 2016, most pundits assumed that Democrats could not take the House. Trump may be the nomiee  and&nbsp

Alibguyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15875526702173279869noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7775467705491706400.post-31601150776029220652016-03-15T12:54:00.001-07:002016-03-15T12:54:29.246-07:00

The  Super Tuesday 2.0 is here and there are 691 delegates at stake. As  my friend calls it, “Significant Tuesday.” This is a chance for Hillary to secure her 200+ pledged delegate lead or for Sanders to prolong the race. Pundits expect Clinton to win Florida and North Carolina easily while Ohio, Illinois and Missouri should be close (although a few pundits say Sanders will win

Alibguyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15875526702173279869noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7775467705491706400.post-64161105751296479582016-03-02T17:39:00.000-08:002016-03-02T17:39:11.891-08:00

Super Tuesday was a strong night for Hillary. It was not the knockout she wanted but it was still strong. Sanders failed to cause an upset in any of the heavily diverse southern states (the lowest she won was 64%). He did win Oklahoma but Nate Silver predicted a Sanders win there. Sanders also won Colorado and Minnesota but both states were caucus states which as shown in 2008 do

Alibguyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15875526702173279869noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7775467705491706400.post-7900162104403670532016-02-23T09:00:00.000-08:002016-02-23T09:20:25.423-08:00

After the Nevada caucus, Bernie and Hillary supporters are up in arms debating it. There is the debate over whether people were yelling  "English only" at Dolores Huerta. There is the debate over who has the most momentum but most importantly there is the debate over who won the Hispanic vote. The Sanders camp has long contended that they can win over voters of color and that Sanders is not

Alibguyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15875526702173279869noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7775467705491706400.post-5323103889145504812016-01-25T08:48:00.000-08:002016-01-25T08:48:40.422-08:00

After months of traversing the state, arguing about poll numbers and fighting for Iowan voters, the Iowa caucuses are in one week. The race started off with Clinton in a nearly insurmountable lead. Then in the summer, Bernie Sanders started to gain strength. By October, Sanders was nearly tied in Iowa but after the 1st debate and Hillary Clinton’s Benghazi smackdown, Clinton regained a lead. In

Alibguyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15875526702173279869noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7775467705491706400.post-90448882694331295072015-11-20T10:06:00.002-08:002015-11-20T10:06:55.513-08:00

Louisiana has not elected a statewide Democrat since 2008. Even powerhouse Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) lost in 2014 by 12 points in a runoff (Louisiana has a rule that if no candidate receives 50% of the vote on Election Day, the race goes to a runoff). In 2015 however, Democrats have a chance to win the Gubernatorial race. State Sen. John Bel Edwards (D) is a West Point graduate running against U.S.

Alibguyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15875526702173279869noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7775467705491706400.post-39511426660402828202015-07-30T07:18:00.000-07:002015-07-30T07:18:45.013-07:00

In late June of 2015, the marriage equality case was the Supreme Court case received the most attention. At the same time, the Supreme Court ruled that redistricting commissions (non elected people who are Democrats, Republicans and Independents) can draw redistricting maps. This works out well for Democrats because Republicans have recently drawn convoluted maps across the country including a

Alibguyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15875526702173279869noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7775467705491706400.post-39739844895407641752015-07-17T07:45:00.000-07:002015-07-17T08:21:31.661-07:00

Earlier in July, Democrats got exciting news! The Florida congressional map the Republicans drew was ruled unconstitutional by the Florida Supreme Court, meaning that the legislature would have to redraw the districts. The specific districts are the 5th, 10th, 13th, 14th, 20-22 and 25-27. The 5th district needs to be redrawn because it has a tendril from Jacksonville traveling nearly 200 miles

Alibguyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15875526702173279869noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7775467705491706400.post-55171766494581250982014-11-03T17:49:00.000-08:002014-11-03T17:52:29.643-08:00

One more dawn, one more day, one day more! Here are my final election predictions. After an extremely rocky road to the Election day with polls showing 10 tossups according to RCP, this is going to be an exciting night! The Democrats are looking to lose some House seats (I predict eight) and gain three Governorships. The Senate is too close to call and we may not know the final outcome until

Alibguyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15875526702173279869noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7775467705491706400.post-20190193955638384802014-10-20T17:02:00.000-07:002014-10-20T17:02:05.150-07:00

This post is first in an installment continuing to Election Day looking at competitive Senate/Gubernatorial races and examining the dynamics and county benchmarks in each state. Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) is no stranger to competitive races. She has been in the Senate since 1996 but has consistently faced close elections. She won by a few points in 1996, back when Louisiana voted Democratic at both

Alibguyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15875526702173279869noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7775467705491706400.post-82545727262133781922014-10-07T15:17:00.002-07:002014-10-08T14:43:24.423-07:00

The Senate has been very competitive and conventional wisdom by inside the beltway pundits has suggested that Republicans have a narrow advantage. 2014 was supposed to be the year that Republicans nominated moderates so they could take the Senate unlike in 2010 and 2012 when they nominated far right candidates (we will never forget Todd Akin with his legitimate rape comment and Christine

Alibguyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15875526702173279869noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7775467705491706400.post-42867698574720586782014-08-11T08:06:00.000-07:002014-08-11T08:45:10.951-07:00

Last July, a 5-4 panel of judges ruled that the maps for Florida's congressional 5th and 10th districts needed to be re-drawn due to VRA violations. No surprise there. Florida has a "Fair Districts Amendment" which requires Florida's legislature to re-draw congressional districts fairly without political considerations. This was similar to California's fair redistricting plan except that

Alibguyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15875526702173279869noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7775467705491706400.post-20759242262715007842014-03-20T13:23:00.001-07:002014-03-20T13:23:03.410-07:00

California with its 55 electoral votes used to be a competitive state in national elections that leaned Republican. In 1992 though, California voted for Clinton by 14 points and never looked back. California now is Democratic and voted 60% Obama in 2012. California is next to impossible for Republicans to win because of the Hispanic vote, Republicans would need to win 60%+ of the white vote to

Tam Explorerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04896526237682103179noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7775467705491706400.post-91131292043002714342013-11-01T18:50:00.001-07:002013-11-02T13:15:58.127-07:00

2013 is an odd numbered year which means that there are no major U.S. House, Senate or Presidential elections (except for a few specials) so it is a relatively quiet year. There are two major Gubernatorial elections though and those are in New Jersey and Virginia. In New Jersey, the RCP average shows Republican incumbent Chris Christie ahead by 25 points due to goodwill from his Hurricane Sandy

Alibguyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15875526702173279869noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7775467705491706400.post-82291500018033966102013-07-21T14:57:00.003-07:002013-07-22T15:53:11.430-07:00

On May 21st, 2013, the voters of California's SD-16 (a State Senate District spanning Fresno, Kings, Tulare and Kern Counties,) voted in a special election for State Senate. This election is pivotal for the Democrats in order to maintain their 2/3rd majority there which allows them to pass legislation more easily. The previous State Senator, Michael Rubio (D) had retired in order to accept a

Alibguyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15875526702173279869noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7775467705491706400.post-26753588441623723532013-05-27T08:31:00.001-07:002013-05-28T13:23:04.155-07:00

On May 21st, the voters of California's 16th Senate District nearly voted to elect a Republican even though President Obama won the district handily in 2012. This district is a 71% Hispanic district representing all of Kings County and heavily Hispanic parts of Fresno, Tulare and Kern Counties. This was a special election for the seat that State Sen. Michael Rubio (D) vacated in order to serve as

Alibguyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15875526702173279869noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7775467705491706400.post-58937552926210616522013-03-04T14:44:00.003-08:002013-05-28T13:49:28.807-07:00

2012 was a fantastic year for Democrats in California. Obama won 60% of the vote here, Democrats won 2/3 majorities in the State Assembly and State Senate and Democrats gained four U.S. House seats (from 2002-10, they gained only one.) Democrats overperformed expectations by winning all the tossup House seats and winning Assembly seats such as one in formerly Republican leaning Lancaster.

Alibguyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15875526702173279869noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7775467705491706400.post-89713753617239976002012-12-21T11:06:00.000-08:002012-12-21T11:07:48.533-08:00

After a yearlong absence, my redistricting map posts are back! Although the 2011 redistricting season has passed and the next redistricting will take place around 2020, Minnesota has the possibility of undergoing mid decade redistricting. In 2010, Republicans and Democrats had split control of the state Government with Democrats controlling the Governorship and Republicans controlling the

Alibguyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15875526702173279869noreply@blogger.com2