Races and Redistricting

California House Races 2014

2013-03-04T14:44:00.003-08:00

2012 was a fantastic year for Democrats in California. Obama won 60% of the vote here, Democrats won 2/3 majorities in the State Assembly and State Senate and Democrats gained four U.S. House seats (from 2002-10, they gained only one.) Democrats overperformed expectations by winning all the tossup House seats and winning Assembly seats such as one in formerly Republican leaning Lancaster.

Minnesota Redistricting 7-1 Democratic

2012-12-21T11:06:00.000-08:00

After a yearlong absence, my redistricting map posts are back! Although the 2011 redistricting season has passed and the next redistricting will take place around 2020, Minnesota has the possibility of undergoing mid decade redistricting. In 2010, Republicans and Democrats had split control of the state Government with Democrats controlling the Governorship and Republicans controlling the

Outlook for 2014 Senate Races

2012-12-13T09:17:00.001-08:00

After an amazing 2012 election, it is already time to start previewing the 2014 Senate races. I have not posted many posts analyzing the 2012 election results yet because I like to wait until all the votes are tallied. In 2014 though, Democrats face a tough map. Like 2012, the majority of the seats up for reelection are held by Democrats and like 2012, some of those Democrats such as Kent

Presidential Election Liveblog

2012-11-06T15:17:00.000-08:00

I will be running a liveblog for this election so you can see the results. 6:58: Things are not looking too good in North Carolina. We got our voters out but the Republican turnout seemed to have increased higher than I would have liked. 6:53 MSNBC calls New Hampshire for Obama! 6:47: Two pickups in the Senate! Warren and Donnelly! 6:45: Obama leading by 140,000 in Ohio. People still in line

My Last California Congressional District Rankings

2012-11-05T07:35:00.000-08:00

These are my last rankings before the Presidential election on California's Congressional Districts. After the California Redistricting Commission shuffled around all the California Congressional District lines, they created opportunities for Democrats in seats such as CA-07, CA-10, CA-26, CA-36 and CA-52. The Democrats are looking to gain somewhere in the neighborhood of 4 seats in California

Senate Ratings: My Last Ratings This Cycle

2012-11-02T11:28:00.002-07:00

These are my last Senate race ratings before election day. I have really enjoyed writing these ratings and I cannot wait to get start writing up Senate ratings for the 2014 midterm cycle. Here are my previous Senate ratings this cycle: http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/2012/10/senate-ratings-democrats-likely-to-keep.html In the 2011 cycle, conventional wisdom suggested that Republicans

Electoral Vote Ratings: One More Week

2012-10-30T09:30:00.001-07:00

My previous electoral vote ratings: http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/2012/10/electoral-vote-rankings-obama.html These are my 2nd to last Electoral rankings. My last will be right before election day. http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/2012/09/electoral-vote-rankings-2012.html has more detailed writeups on Safe and Likely states. Also, I have eliminated the tossup category

Florida Election Prediction 2012

2012-10-20T10:17:00.002-07:00

What makes Florida such a close swing state? What must the President and Romney do in order to win there? I will examine those questions in my post. This is my 2nd post in my swing state series. The first post examined Colorado here: http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/2012/10/colorado-election-prediction-2012.html In this post, I will look at the demographics and political trends of

Senate Ratings: Democrats Likely to Keep Senate Majority

2012-10-17T09:01:00.000-07:00

In 2010, Democrats lost control of the House but retained control of the Senate. While retaining control though, they lost six seats and have a 53-47 advantage over the Republicans. Therefore, Republicans could gain three Senate seats and win control of the Senate if Romney becomes President because Romney's Vice President will cast the tiebreaking vote. Assuming Obama wins reelection which most

Electoral Vote Rankings: Obama Maintaining a slight lead

2012-10-11T10:10:00.000-07:00

In the elections of 2000 and 2004, the electoral vote was closely divided between the two candidates with Florida and Ohio as the main swing states. In 2008 though, Obama changed the electoral map by competing in previously Republican states such as Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana and Colorado. His competition expanded electoral opportunities for Democrats and made those areas more swingy.

Colorado Election Prediction 2012

2012-10-07T09:35:00.000-07:00

What makes Colorado such a close swing state? What do and Obama and Romney have to do to win there? Has Colorado always been such a close swing state? What counties do Obama and Romney need to win in order to win Colorado? I will examine those questions in my post. This is my first post in a series of posts analyzing the important battleground states of the Presidential election. I recently

Competitive California Congressional Districts

2012-09-27T10:55:00.002-07:00

My last analysis of the California Congressional Districts was in May before the top two primary elections which will determine the two candidates who will face each other in the congressional elections in November 6th, 2012. The Republican turnout in these primaries was higher, mostly because it seemed that there were more competitive primaries on the Republican side, especially in Southern

Senate Rankings September 2012

2012-09-18T08:53:00.005-07:00

Electoral Vote Rankings 2012

2012-09-07T12:56:00.002-07:00

Senate Race Ratings 2012

2012-07-28T10:47:00.001-07:00

Wisconsin Recall Race: Election night Guide

2012-06-05T08:13:00.002-07:00

The 2012 Gubernatorial recall against Scott Walker (R) is going to be very close as 2010 challenger and Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett (D) challenges Walker for the Gubernatorial office. Walker won by 5 points in 2010 in a closer than expected race (the final PPP poll showed Walker winning by 9 points.) A recent PPP poll showed that Walker may again win this race. The PPP poll showed Walker ahead by

Analysis of California's Congressional Districts (May Edition)

2012-05-23T06:48:00.001-07:00

This is my update on my post here http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/2011/12/analysis-of-californias-congressional.html that analyzes California's Congressional races. This post looks at how the races have changed since my January post. (image is courtesy of Daily Kos) Map of California's new Congressional Districts On November 2nd, 2010, California voters passed Proposition 20

California State Senate Races Guide and Analysis

2012-03-28T06:51:00.005-07:00

In 2011, the California Redistricting Commission redrew California's Congressional lines, California's Senate lines and California's Assembly lines. The California Redistricting Commission is a group of five Democrats, five Republicans and four Decline to States who worked together to draw lines that combine communities of interest and create competitive districts. California's bipartisan

Illinois Primary Preview

2012-03-17T10:23:00.002-07:00

After his wins in Mississippi and Alabama, Rick Santorum hopes to firmly establish himself as the conservative alternative to Romney by winning a state that conventional wisdom suggests should be safe for Romney. That state would be Illinois which has its primary on March 20th. Illinois not only has a large delegate prize of 54 delegates awarded on election day (Illinois has 69 delegates but

Texas Fair Redistricting Map

2012-02-17T06:49:00.001-08:00

This is my 6th post using a fair redistricting map model. The Texas Redistricting saga began in 2003 and is continuing today. In 2003, the Republican legislature and House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R) performed a mid decade redistricting, increasing Texas's Republican delegation from 15 to 21. In 2006 though, a court redrew a few Texas districts in the southern part of the state because it

Analysis of California's Congressional Districts (January Edition)

2012-01-11T06:30:00.000-08:00

This post is my January 2012 analysis of California's congressional districts. My November 2012 analysis before the November 6th 2012 election is here and my analysis of the 2014 races is here: http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/2013/03/california-congressional-districts-2014.html The redistricting season is winding down as states finalize their maps. Most of my future posts will involve

New York Fair Redistricting Map

2011-12-16T12:23:00.000-08:00

The 2010 census results show New York losing two congressional seats. In 2000, New York also lost two congressional seats but they were both lost from Upstate New York while New York City and the suburbs lost no seats. This census, New York City will not be as lucky because growth has slowed there and New York City will lose one seat. Unlike in other solidly Democratic states such as Illinois and

New Jersey Fair Redistricting

2011-11-25T06:52:00.000-08:00

New Jersey is one of the few states with a bipartisan redistricting commission. This means that even if one party holds the redistricting trifecta (Governorship and both houses of the legislature,) both parties will have a voice when New Jersey's state legislature and congressional lines are redrawn. At a first glance, a bipartisan commission suggests that the commission will draw a fair map that

The Candidates Forum for California's 2nd Congressional District

2011-11-09T07:02:00.000-08:00

I attended a forum for the Congressional Candidates for California's 2nd Congressional District on October 21st in the Marin Academy High School. The California Redistricting Commission redrew the map of California's districts so Marin County (where Marin Academy is) is in the same district as Mendocino, Humboldt, Del Norte, Trinity and parts of Sonoma County including Petaluma. I testified in

Maryland 7-0-1

2011-10-25T06:52:00.000-07:00

I am aware this is my 5th Maryland map that I have drawn. I wanted to draw a map though that created a 7-0-1 map with seven heavily Democratic seats and one swing seat. Creating an 8-0 map would require taking some Democratic precincts from Prince Georges County into the 1st district on the Eastern Shore and most legislators from Prince Georges County do not want that to happen. They recently for