Stock Trader

Some portfolio analysis I recently did

2012-08-19T16:50:00.001-07:00

2012-07-03T21:58:00.000-07:00

Covariance & Correlation

Covariance has a upper and lower limit.

-SD(X) SD(Y) <= Cov(X,Y) <= SD(X) SD(Y)

If a normal random variable is scaled, covariance gets affected. It counters the intuition that dependent relationships are unaltered due to scaling of normal random variables.

Therefore, covariance, as a dependence measure fails in such cases. Thus we need a dependence measure which is unaffected by the scaling (is dimensionless) and that is why correlation exists.

VaR articles

2012-07-01T13:34:00.001-07:00

Risk Capital and VaR
VaR: a tool to measure leverage risk
Stress Testing: Move over, VaR

November 2011 Forex Performance

2011-12-04T16:40:00.000-08:00

49.4% Profit in November. My first month trading forex.

3rd October outlook

2011-10-01T15:26:00.000-07:00

XRA - buy @3.64 - macd, full sto in favor
ALTI sell @ 1.37 - 1.33 - Full sto agrees, also coz outside UpperBB for a while
AEA - on the verge of bouncing upwards - currently there is a lot of indecison (bulls and bears)
SIFY - is kinda unpredictable, full sto says time for the trend to reverse. but haven't seen a reversal candlestick formation that would suggest yet. might end up being range bound or simply go down a little more

CEDC -- Looks bullish in bearish market

2011-09-05T11:25:00.000-07:00

There are hardly any stocks out there that are looking bullish in such a market. CEDC is one of them. Has a bullish engulfing right now. Resistance at 6.28 and 5.24.

AMKR - Spinning top and high volume

2011-09-01T18:17:00.000-07:00

The uptrend was broken yesterday, and seems to be a bearish reversal.
http://chart.ly/odov5kx

Bears taking control of the market

2011-09-01T17:50:00.000-07:00

Firstly, I hope you guys got out of AIS as suggested in my post yesterday. Absolutely nailed AIS. Those following my tweets would have also noticed that an alert was sent out about a bearish engulfing pattern seen on OXGN. OXGN gapped down a lot.
In short, nailed both the trades.

Not expecting a good day tomorrow. Seems like the bears have taken control over the market.
Below you can see SIFY trading within a range currently. There is resistance at 4.96. Also, 4.51 which was earlier a resistance can also be considered a support. If 4.51 is broken, the next support is at 4.00. I expect SIFY to go lower tomorrow.

HTCH - If the support area 2.14 is broken, the next support is at 2.00.

Good day today

2011-08-31T18:57:00.000-07:00

Wednesday Aug 31, 2011 played out as I expected it to. Expected all 3 stocks to close lower and none of them disappointed.

It was the first time I had used Fibonacci to predict stock movement and turned out to be a good resistance area (.240 retracement level).

WEST MACD signal line crossover

2011-08-31T18:40:00.000-07:00

WEST saw a signal line crossover today. should see a sharp move upwards soon. Also looks like a falling wedge pattern had been forming. Should see a reversal soon. Also the volume was good today. Has been accumulating for a few days now.

AIS Dark Cloud cover Pattern - Short term bearish reversal pattern

2011-08-31T15:59:00.000-07:00

It is time to cover your positions in AIS.
In the above graph, you can notice a dark cloud cover formation.

Definition of Dark Cloud Cover formation: If the open today is greater than yesterday's close and today's close is below yesterday's midpoint of the day.

2.53 seems to be the resistance at this point. I expect 2.3 to be the support level. If that support is broken, the next support level seems to be at 2.24. Since the dark cloud cover pattern was near a resistance area, it adds more legibility to the bearish reversal.

For more info on Dark Cloud Cover Pattern Link1 Link2

ASX, QTM, PZG

2011-08-30T19:34:00.000-07:00

ASX

Currently at Fibonacci Retracement Level (0.240). Measuring after it hit a low of 4$. 0.240 retracement level is hit at price 4.562. Expecting it to go lower based on Fibonacci.
MACD - just crossed 0. Suggests it will break the resistance caused by Fibonacci.
Good Volume seen today which suggests again that the uptrend should continue.

QTM

Currently at Fibonacci Retracement Level (0.240). Measuring after it hit a low of 1.54$. 0.240 retracement level is hit at price 2.018. Expecting it to go lower based on Fibonacci.
MACD - just crossed 0. Suggests it will break the resistance caused by Fibonacci.
Good Volume seen today which suggests again that the uptrend should continue.

But my gut feeling still says that the retracement level won't be broken tomorrow and will close lower than what it did today.

Following query was used to view the ASX chart:

set{F000,count(Fibonacci Down(120,20) is near 0.000,1)}

set{F240,count(Fibonacci Down(120,20) is near 0.240,1)}

set{F382,count(Fibonacci Down(120,20) is near 0.382,1)}

set{F500,count(Fibonacci Down(120,20) is near 0.500,1)}

set{F618,count(Fibonacci Down(120,20) is near 0.618,1)}

set{F786,count(Fibonacci Down(120,20) is near 0.786,1)}

set{F1000,count(Fibonacci Down(120,20) is near 1.000,1)}

SET{VAR1,F000 + F240}

SET{VAR2,VAR1+ F382}

SET{VAR3,VAR2 + F500}

SET{VAR4,VAR3+ F618}

SET{VAR5,VAR4 + F786}

SET{VAR6,VAR5 + F1000}

VAR6 ABOVE .5

F240 ABOVE .5

ADD COLUMN F000

ADD COLUMN F240

ADD COLUMN F382

ADD COLUMN F500

ADD COLUMN F618

ADD COLUMN F786

ADD COLUMN F1000

DRAW FIBONACCI DOWN(120,20,1)

and where close price is less than 5

and where close price is greater than 1

and draw MA(20)

and draw Bollinger Bands(20)

and draw MACD(12,26,9)

and draw ADX(14,14)

and draw RSI(14)