Analysis around the Horn

MLB Pipeline 2016 Draft Preview - Top 100 vs Top 50

2016-04-28T20:59:00.000-05:00

MLB Pipeline has an extensive preview of the players available for the 2016 Major League Baseball First-Year Player Draft, which will be held on June 9th, 2016. The list was expanded from 50 to 100, which is great, but the order was updated as well. Unfortunately, the update meant the previous list was lost to the ages...

QUICK! TO THE INTERNET!

I found a cached source thanks to the Internet Archive Wayback Machine. Below you can find both lists compared side-by-side along with the difference, but only when it's available. Green is positive change and red is negative.

One of the names I first noticed missing from the original top four was Alec Hanson. It sounds like there are health concerns.

Here is a short list of the biggest movers:

Biggest Risers		Biggest Fallers
Joey Wentz	NA to 12	Nick Banks	16 to 95 (-79)
Forrest Whitley	NA to 13	Bobby Dalbec	15 to 85 (-70)
Alex Kirilloff	NA to 18	Alec Hanson	3 to 64 (-61)
Zack Collins	NA to 20	Reggie Lawson	37 to 94 (-57)
Braxton Garrett	41 to 14 (+27)	Jake Fraley	32 to 86 (-54)
Dakota Hudson	33 to 10 (+23)	Kyle Funkhouser	23 to NA
Ian Anderson	28 to 11 (+17)	Ian Hamilton	30 to NA

2015 Overall Fantasy Baseball Rankings

2015-03-12T11:00:00.000-05:00

Updated March 28, 2015 *The average draft round (ADR) presumes your participation in a standard 12 team league.
Click here if you don't see the spreadsheet

Code	Source	Twitter	Weighted Value	Last Update
CBS1	Scott White	@CBSScottWhite	1	March 26
CBS2	Al Melchior	@almelccbs	1	March 27
ESPN	ESPN Fantasy	@ESPNFantasy	3	March 27
FAKE	The Fake Baseball	@thefakebaseball	2	March 27
FAN	FanGraphs	@fangraphs	1	February 17
FA	Fantasy Assembly	@fantasyassembly	1	March 22
FBCJ	Fantasy Baseball Crackerjacks	@FBCrackerjacks	1	February 23
FGD	Fantasy Gameday	@Fantasy_Gameday	3	March 21
FS	Fantasy Squads	@AskROTObaseball	1	March 23
FOX	Fox Sports	@FoxSports	3	March 27
MLB	Major League Baseball	@MLB	2	March 28
MRCS	Mr. Cheatsheet	@MrCheatsheet	2	March 18
PGS	Paul Greco Sports	@PaulGreco	1	March 15
RAZZ	Razzball	@Razzball	2	March 28
RB	RotoBanter	@RotoBanter	2	March 11
RC	RotoChamp	@RotoChamp	1	March 28
SI	Sports Illustrated	@SInow	3	March 27
USA	USA Today	@usatoday	3	March 27
YHOO	Yahoo Sports	@YahooSports	3	March 25
ADP1	CBS Sports - ADP	@cbsfantasy	5	March 28
ADP2	ESPN - ADP	@ESPNFantasy	5	March 28
ADP3	Fantrax - ADP	@fantrax	5	March 28
ADP4	NFBC - ADP	@thenfbc	5	March 28
ADP5	RTSports - ADP	@rtfsnews	5	March 28
ADP6	Yahoo - ADP	@YahooSports	5	March 28

Notes
Players with health concerns were removed. I will try to make every attempt to update this page to make sure the information is up to date. Please contact me with any errors you may discover or if you find another reputable website with a similar top overall ranking. I've compiled the data from the aforementioned websites to create the average rank for nearly 500 players. If a player did not appear on a resource's list, then they were assigned a static value of 500.

MLB.com : Fantasy Baseball Player Injury Updates & RosterResource.com : MLB Injury Report

What is the purpose of this spreadsheet?
Everyone has their own opinions regarding where a baseball player should be ranked during a fantasy baseball draft. These opinions are ever evolving, especially during the offseason while some men are still seeking a new home. How can you trust one resource? This is a compilation of lists sorted using unweighted as well as weighted rankings.

Why weighted values?
Unweighted values are fine if you believe all data is created equal. Frankly, there is so much data compiled here that it is fairly comparable to my weighted averages. The weighted values were determined for each resource with an arbitrary methodology in addition to how many individuals were polled for their overall list and/or general confidence in the resource. I welcome critiques.

Individuals: 1
Compilations: 2
Experts: 3
Average draft results: 5

Why should I care about standard deviation?
A low standard deviation indicates the data points tend to be very close to the mean, whereas high standard deviation indicates the data points are spread out over a large range of values. The standard deviation represents that range. Simply put, it is a measure of confidence between every website I referenced. Zero is ideal, which was the acquired score of Mike Trout.

Here are a few examples and my possible explanations:

Clayton Kershaw and Felix Hernandez are first round candidates, but most people are very hesitant to draft pitchers early. I prefer bats, but these arms are truly too good to pass up.
Hanley Ramirez is built from tissue paper. He's good, but it's only a matter of time until he breaks.
Reliability or repeat performance concerns regarding Corey Dickerson, Todd Frazier, and Joey Votto.
George Springer, Starling Marte, Billy Hamilton, and Nolan Arenado have possible upside concerns as they are younger players with a limited track record. What does the future hold?
More injury concerns: Adam Wainwright, Victor Martinez, Matt Harvey, Hunter Pence, and many others.

Final Thoughts
Standard deviation may not actually indicate a possible performance issue or injury problems. It may just represent indecision, so do your homework before you commit to anything questionable. This guide provided me with success in 2012 and 2014 (I took a hiatus in 2013), and it's back again for 2015. I hope this helps others prepare for this season. Please give me a shout out if it helps you as the motivation helps me along. Good luck in your drafts!

Pirates 2015 40-Man Payroll Early Projection

2014-06-08T18:30:00.000-05:00

Please be aware these are rough estimates using my judgment based upon information gathered from Pirates Prospects, Cot's Baseball Contracts, and MLB Depth Charts.

Full credit goes to Tim Williams who typically spearheads this project. I intend to provide a link to his website once he releases his much more reliable projection.

Notes:

All salaries in bold are official.
All ages are as of the start of the 2015 Pittsburgh Pirates season.
Players in the minor leagues make $40,750 in their first year on the 40-man roster, $81,500 in their second year, and $122,250 in their third year. Any player with major league service time makes at least $81,500, regardless of how many years of service.
This is my own estimation and not an official projection.

According to Pirates Prospects the current payroll is approximately ~$78 million, so $10 million toward free agency actually seems like a bit of an underestimate. Ideally, the Buccos would pursue Russell Martin in addition to a pitcher before the 2014 July trade deadline and/or another pitcher from 2015 offseason free agency.

How to Fix the Pirates Rotation Later (2015)

2014-06-06T09:00:00.000-05:00

The Pirates rotation is bad now, however it won’t magically get better next season unless all of our pitchers get lucky. (Good) Luck is not something to rely upon unless you are already a lottery winner or something along those lines.

What happens if the Buccos fail to acquire a more capable arm before the trade deadline? What will they need to do to recover and prepare during the offseason? Wandy Rodriguez is gone and Francisco Liriano will (probably) become a free agent as well as Edinson Volquez. So who’s left?

Problem for the Pirates: who will be in the 2015 rotation Opening Day? Currently just have Cole/Morton. Other internal options lack upside.
— Tim Williams (@timwilliamsP2) June 4, 2014

James Santelli wrote a piece last August explaining why he thought the 2015 Pirates could be a 100-win team, although the prediction was made before Jameson Taillon needed Tommy John surgery. Nick Kingham still has a chance to make an appearance later this season, even though I expect the "standard" he’s-still-learning-no-really-we’re-not-just-trying-to-save-money-guys June or September call up. With any luck, we may see Taillon around this time next year as well.

I started out this post stating I did not like luck, not to mention there are quite a few games between Opening Day and June, so who will accompany Gerrit Cole and Charlie Morton? If we are left with the status quo, then the Pirates will probably rely upon Jeff Locke, Brandon Cumpton, Stolmy Pimentel, and/or Casey Sadler.

Pimentel is higher risk than Cumpton and Sadler, but also has more upside. He’d be one of my prime candidates for the 2015 OD rotation.
— Tim Williams (@timwilliamsP2) June 4, 2014

I typically rely upon Pirates Prospects for this data, but their early look at the Pittsburgh Pirates 2015 payroll was last updated in January of 2012. The values in the table below are my best estimation as I attempted to imitate their work using MLB Depth Charts and Cot's Baseball Contracts, then comparing them to the dated information on Pirates Prospects.

If the Pirates choose to allow all of our potential free agents to leave, then they should have approximately $10 million to spend during the offseason. They very well may beg for Russell Martin to return and I would not criticize them for it. However, we are trying to address their rotation, so let’s see what we can afford if that money was dedicated to a starting pitcher. Sorry James, but I don't intend to suggest Johan Santana this time around.

These spreadsheets were compiled using data I gathered from FanGraphs. The players included in the following spreadsheets are all free agent starting pitchers included on MLB Trade Rumors 2015 Free Agents post.

There are 41 starting pitchers in the free agent pool according to MLBTR, however a few have not appeared yet this season and we can expect several to sign extensions before the season's end. I sorted them using WAR/GS, which is simply wins above replacement divided by their total games started. This should give us a basic understanding of how valuable a pitcher has been during each start.

If we only use this near-sighted information, then we can observe some players are pitching very well, while others are playing at or below replacement level. Contract value is typically determined with greater scope than just a single season, so it would be best to increase our scale to the past three years. Finally, you may wonder why some rows are colored green, orange, or blue. I will touch upon that after this final table:

Green = Workhorse, dependable (>360IP, averaged >120IP per season)
Orange = Sub-par reliability (180-360IP, averaged 60-120IP per season)
Blue = Injury prone, high risk (<180IP, averaged <60IP per season)

Neal Huntington has targeted pitchers as recovery projects over the past few seasons, but it would be ideal to see him select at least one reliable, dependable arm for a change. We saw mild success in the past with A.J. Burnett, Liriano, and even Volquez is playing better than expected. We also saw (eventual) disasters with Kevin Correia, Erik Bedard, Jonathan Sanchez, and Wandy. I understand the Pirates may not be able to afford the best arms on the market (Max Scherzer, Jon Lester, Johnny Cueto) and other pitchers may expect a big raise (Aaron Harang, Jason Hammel, Ervin Santana) whether or not they truly deserve it.

In order to predict contract values, I borrowed research conducted by Dave Cameron on FanGraphs and Lewie Pollis on Beyond the Box Score (The Cost of a Win in the 2014 Off-Season and How Much Does a Win Really Cost?). They determined a win is worth somewhere between $5 and $7 million. With this knowledge in hand, I awarded certain win values to pitchers depending upon their previously noted reliability. If a pitcher was deemed dependable, then I allotted him $6 million per win; if sub-par, $5.5; and if high risk, $5.

I would expect the Pirates have a chance to target anyone I pointed out in the table above. If it were me, then I would take my pick between Yovani Gallardo, Dan Haren, or Justin Masterson at $10 million. If they rolled the dice with a little more risk, then I would not be upset if they ended up with Brandon Morrow, Chad Billingsley, Brett Anderson, Chris Capuano, or even Josh Johnson, but only at a price tag of $6 million or less.

Who would you like to see wear black and gold while standing atop our mound?

How to Fix the Pirates Rotation Now (2014)

2014-06-05T13:00:00.000-05:00

Yesterday I was lurking Twitter while scouring for interesting tidbits of news worth retweeting when I stumbled upon a conversation between two of my favorite Pirates informants: Pat Lackey and Tim Williams. Pat started by referencing an article that was published to Fangraphs on Wednesday ("Gregory Polanco Won’t Fix The Pirates’ Real Problem" by Mike Petriello) and they started to roll from there:

The above conversation was compiled using Conweets

Biggest problem with Pirates pitching this year is Liriano and Cole aren’t pitching like 2013 versions. Much different story if they were.
— Tim Williams (@timwilliamsP2) June 4, 2014

We have complained about the Pirates' sluggish slugging when they are actually very close to league average. Poor pitching is the real dilemma, but how and when do they fix this problem? According to Mike, he would see Neal Huntington shock us with a trade to acquire either James Shields or Jeff Samardzija. Pat and Tim did not like the short-sightedness of Shields, who will be a free agent at the end of the season, and agreed upon Smartzilla. They also mentioned David Price as another alternative.

Any of these pitchers would be exciting additions to the Pirates rotation, but will they be buyers at the deadline? Perhaps. Who will be selling? The race is still relatively close, however it is fairly safe to assume the Diamondbacks, Phillies, Rays, Astros, Padres, and Cubs could all be potential sellers. Currently, they each own a losing record and their playoff expectancy is below ten percent. (Playoff Odds)

Who could be considered from these preemptive basement sales? If we only pay attention to players without attractive team-friendly contracts who remain under team control for at least one additional season, then the list could include the following:

How many of these aforementioned pitchers will actually appear on the trade block? I would be surprised to see more than half of these names mentioned, but I listed them regardless as they fit the description: A starting pitcher in their arbitration years who is currently or historically capable of pitching better than average.

All the options listed above appear to be better options than Edinson Volquez except Eric Stults and Trevor Cahill. Price or Samardzija are certainly the best options, but there are others to consider as well.

Who would you like to see in the rotation in addition to (or to substitute) any of our current Pirates starting pitchers? Who would you avoid?

2014 Overall Rankings - Final Update

2014-04-01T17:00:00.000-05:00

Spring training is over and Opening Day is here. This offseason has been seriously unkind to pitchers' arms. You will find many starting pitchers on the projected disabled list and quite a few uses of the phrase "Tommy John."

The 25-man rosters are set, so we should not see any more dramatic swings in fantasy baseball draft position unless another season-ending injury occurs, which is why this is my final update for the 2014 season overall fantasy baseball rankings. The list can be accessed by clicking here or using the link at the top of the page.

Many of your fantasy baseball teams should be drafted by now, but this should keep you up to date even if your draft is still not completed. Here are a few noteworthy headlines to remember if you still have that draft coming up or have your team and need to make adjustments:

The following players will likely miss the entire 2014 season:

Matt Harvey - Recovering from Tommy John surgery, October 2013
Cory Luebke - Recovering from Tommy John surgery, February 2014
Luke Hochevar - Right elbow (Tommy John)
Patrick Corbin - UCL damage in left elbow (Tommy John)
Jarrod Parker - Right elbow (Tommy John)
Kris Medlen - Right elbow (Tommy John #2)
Brandon Beachy - Right elbow (Tommy John #2)
Bruce Rondon - Right elbow (Tommy John)
David Hernandez - Torn right elbow ligament (Tommy John)
Bobby Parnell** - Partial tear of MCL in right elbow (**Tommy John likely)

The following teams have notable players who may begin the season on the disabled list:

ARI: Corbin (SP), Hernandez, (RP), Daniel Hudson (SP), Cody Ross (LF)
ATL: Beachy (SP), Gavin Floyd (SP), Medlen (SP), Mike Minor (SP), Jonny Venters (RP)
BAL: Manny Machado (3B), Nolan Reimold (LF)
CHW: Gordon Beckham (2B), Jeff Keppinger (2B)
CIN: Jonathan Broxton (RP), Aroldis Chapman (RP), Mat Latos (SP), Sean Marshall (RP)
CLE: Michael Bourn (CF)
COL: Jhoulys Chacin (SP), Tyler Chatwood (SP)
DET: Andy Dirks (LF), Jose Iglesias (SS), Rondon (RP)
HOU: Jesse Crain (RP)
KCR: Hochevar (SP)
LAA: Sean Burnett (RP)
LAD: Josh Beckett (SP), Chad Billingsley (SP), Matt Kemp (CF), Clayton Kershaw (SP)
MIA: Rafael Furcal (SS)
NYM: Harvey (SP), Jonathon Niese (SP), Parnell (RP)
OAK: Ryan Cook (RP), A.J. Griffin (SP), Eric O'Flaherty (RP), Parker (SP)
PHI: Mike Adams (RP), Freddy Galvis (2B), Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez (SP), Cole Hamels (SP), Darin Ruf (LF)
SDP: Josh Johnson (SP), Luebke (SP), Cameron Maybin (CF), Carlos Quentin (LF)
SEA: Hisashi Iwakuma (SP), Taijuan Walker (SP)
SFG: Jeremy Affeldt (RP), Marco Scutaro (2B)
STL: Jaime Garcia (SP), Jason Motte (RP)
TAM: David DeJesus (LF), Jeremy Hellickson (SP)
TEX: Yu Darvish (SP), Matt Harrison (SP), Derek Holland (SP), Jurickson Profar (2B), Geovany Soto (C)
WAS: Doug Fister (SP), Wilson Ramos (C)

Reference: MLB's Injury Report
I hope my resources were/will be helpful for your fantasy baseball drafts. Give me a shout or leave a comment if it helped you. The encouragement is great motivation.

Good luck in your leagues this season!

2014 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft #2

2014-03-10T17:30:00.000-05:00

Happy #MockDraftMonday!

@AATH_Baseball @MLB No idea, but welcome!
— ESPN Fantasy Sports (@ESPNFantasy) March 10, 2014

I guess I was under a rock when ESPN announced today's impromptu fantasy baseball holiday where their experts occasionally hopped into the mock draft lobby with other users to draft alongside them. A few fortunate enough to join a mock league with one of them received pretty nice advice and had some good fun. I arrived late to the party, so I was not drafting against any notable experts.

Standings are based upon ESPN 2014 projections.

Once again I did not win the draft. In fact, my team is worst than my first mock draft attempt.

I took my own advice and waited on pitching, but I think I probably waited far too long. The majority of my pitchers came in rounds 13-25 aside from Jose Fernandez and Koji Uehara in rounds 5 and 11, respectively. Most of these pitchers in the later rounds of the draft have the potential to be good, but you might bring you might find yourself crossing your fingers too hard. Tim Lincecum, Brandon Beachy, Taijuan Walker, Ian Kennedy, and Josh Johnson all fit this description. Risking your draft on a few guys may result in a worthwhile investment, but what happens if they all tank? Well, there goes your season.

I was much more satisfied with my infield this time and I can thank Miguel Cabrera for helping me start the draft strong. There is some risk in Mark Teixeira, Jhonny Peralta, and Manny Machado given their background, but I feel their draft slots matched well. If Tex fails to perform, then perhaps Justin Morneau in a Rockies uniform will help fill first base instead. This outfield is strong, perhaps even stronger than my previous draft. It all depends upon Jose Bautista's health and the performances from both Hamiltons: Josh and Billy.

I find myself drafting a lot of the same players and that may be because everyone is referencing ESPN's ranking list while I am using my own. I probably should hop into a Yahoo mock draft for comparison's sake.

Once again, you can find a full list of all 300 picks in the draft at the end of this article. As always, I will gladly accept any criticisms you may have as it will almost certainly help out in my upcoming drafts.

2014 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft

2014-03-07T21:00:00.000-06:00

Today, I fell victim to boredom and so I thought, "What better time to take my Overall Fantasy Baseball Rankings list for a test drive than now?"

I hopped into the ESPN mock draft lobby, joined 12-team snake draft, and this is what happened:

Standings are based upon ESPN 2014 projections.

According to ESPN I did not win the draft, and I tend to agree with them. If I compare their projected estimates to my Stat Targets in Roto Leagues, then I notice the scale is very close, which assures me my data is still prevalent even though it is two years old.

My outfield is solid, the core pitching staff is good, but my infielders scare me a lot. Corey Hart and Xander Bogaerts are the biggest question marks considering neither have seen much playing time at the professional level over the past year. I have some concerns with Everth Cabrera as well, but then again everyone who accepted suspensions last season have to something to prove us all.

The backend of my pitching staff doesn't keep me hopeful either. Huston Street is almost always prone to injury, Francisco Liriano was great last season but there's no telling if he will repeat, Neftali Feliz has not pitched in what feels like ages, Ubaldo Jimenez was only good toward the end of last season, and Kyle Lohse... I just don't trust Lohse, especially not with the Brewers who's running with a skeleton crew.

My best value picks were undoubtedly Matt Holliday in round 7 and Curtis Granderson in round 14. I have no idea why everyone seems to be so down on Holliday, but I will gladly capitalize off everyone else's error. The Grandy man is on the decline, he will probably hurt the team batting average, and Citi Field will likely zap a lot of his power; but I feel much better when I steal him as pick number 164 as compared to the consensus of the experts (110, round 10-11).

If I could do this draft over again, then I would have opted to take an infielder or two earlier than round nine. Maybe I could have swapped in Josh Donaldson or Allen Craig in the earlier rounds and wait on pitching until at least round six.

You can find a full list of all 300 picks in the draft at the end of this article. As always, I will gladly accept any criticisms you may have as it will almost certainly help out in my upcoming drafts.

2014 Overall Fantasy Baseball Rankings

2014-02-24T16:24:00.000-06:00

Updated April 2, 2014 *The average draft round (ADR) presumes your participation in a standard 12 team league.
Click here if you don't see the spreadsheet

Code	Website Name	Twitter	Weighted Value	Last Update
BP	Baseball Professor	@BaseballProf	1	February 22
CBS1	Scott White	@CBSScottWhite	1	March 27
CBS2	Al Melchior	@almelccbs	1	March 24
CBS3	Michael Hurcomb	@CBSHurc	1	March 30
CHGM	ClubhouseGM	@ClubhouseGM	1	February 18
ESPN1	ESPN Fantasy Staff	@ESPNFantasy	5	March 26
ESPN2	Tristan H. Cockcroft	@SultanofStat	3	April 2
FA	Fantasy Assembly	@TheJimFinch	1	March 17
FBC	Fantasy Baseball Crackerjacks	@FBCrackerjacks	2	February 27
FC	Fantasy Cafe	@rjwhite1	2	March 23
FGD	Fantasy Gameday	@Fantasy_Gameday	3	March 11
FS	Fantasy Squads	@FantasySquads	1	March 28
FP911	Fantasy Pros 911	@MattDFP911	1	March 28
FOX	Fox Sports Staff	@FoxSports	5	March 25
MLB	Major League Baseball	@MLB	2	March 31
MrCS	Mr. Cheatsheet	@MrCheatSheet	1	March 26
MrFF	Mr. Fantasy Freak	@Awies28	1	December 22
RAZZ	Razzball	@Razzball	3	March 25
RC	RotoChamp	@RotoChamp	2	March 31
YHOO	Yahoo Sports Staff	@YahooSports	5	March 28

This guide provided me with success in 2012, so it's here to return in 2014. My apologies to the one and only user who submitted a request for it last year, but I was preoccupied with my own work. I hope this helps others prepare for this season. Please give me a shout out if it helps you as the motivation helps me along.

Players who will not play in 2014 were removed. I will try to make every attempt to update this page to make sure the information is up to date. Please contact me with any errors you may discover or if you find another reputable website with a similar top overall ranking. I've compiled the data from the following websites to create the average rank for nearly 500 players. If a player did not appear on a resource's list, then they were assigned a static value of 500.

What is the purpose of this spreadsheet?
Everyone has their own opinions regarding where a baseball player should be ranked during a fantasy baseball draft. These opinions are ever evolving, especially during the offseason while some men are still seeking a new home. How can you trust one resource? This is a compilation of lists sorted using unweighted as well as weighted rankings. The weighted value was determined for each website depending upon how many individuals were polled for their overall list or general confidence in the resource. I welcome critiques.

Why should I care about standard deviation?
A low standard deviation indicates the data points tend to be very close to the mean, whereas high standard deviation indicates the data points are spread out over a large range of values. Simply put, it is a measure of confidence between every website I referenced.

For example, every website ranked either Mike Trout or Miguel Cabrera in their top two which is why they have the lowest standard deviation and why you should draft them with the highest confidence. Most of your top round candidates have a standard deviation of 20 or lower, so you can presume a score higher than 20 represents some sort of risk or the possibility of reaching.

Jose Bautista, Albert Pujols, Matt Kemp - Oh how the mighty hath fallen. Previous first round locks in 2012, but where will they end up in 2014 after being plagued by injuries?
Ryan Braun, Nelson Cruz, Jhonny Peralta - PED distrust and suspicions?
Masahiro Tanaka - Newly imported from Japan and shipped into hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. No one's sure what to expect.
David Ortiz, Carlos Beltran, Ben Zobrist, Curtis Granderson, Chase Utley - Regression candidates? The experts seem to have differing opinions on how to rank these guys.
Max Scherzer, Carlos Gomez, Shin-Soo Choo, Jean Segura, Matt Carpenter - Some believe they played over their heads last season and have no place to go but down.
Josh Hamilton, Starlin Castro, CC Sabathia, B.J. Upton - Some were bad in 2013, others were downright awful. We can only expect them to improve, right? Right?
Manny Machado - Opted for reconstructive surgery on his knee on October 10, 2013 that will sideline him for 4-6 months. He is expected to return around Opening Day, but not everyone is optimistic.

Standard deviation may not actually indicate a possible performance issue as it may just represent indecision, so do your homework before you commit to anything questionable. This guide has helped me win several leagues and I hope it helps you win your league, too.

I can't promise any new content beyond this guide, so please don't hold your breath. I don't want to be held liable for any asphyxiations.

BBA Season Awards

2012-10-12T12:26:00.000-05:00

It is a requirement as a Baseball Bloggers Alliance member to vote for their seasonal awards in the same fashion as the BBWAA. However, it is also a requirement to consistently post new content without any prolonged gaps longer than one month, which is why I am certainly surprised I received the reminder to submit my ballot this week.

Analysis around the Horn is a part of the General Chapter, as such I have the opportunity to vote for everyone without discrimination to one league or another. Although my eligibility is questionable, I submit my ballot regardless:

Connie Mack Award (Best Manager)

Davey Johnson (Washington Nationals)
Bob Melvin (Oakland Athletics)
Buck Showalter (Baltimore Orioles)

Willie Mays Award (Best Rookie)

Mike Trout (Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim)
Bryce Harper (Washington Nationals)
Wade Miley (Arizona Diamondbacks)

Goose Gossage Award (Best Reliever)

Craig Kimbrel (Atlanta Braves)
Aroldis Chapman (Cincinnati Reds)
Fernando Rodney (Tampa Bay Rays)

Walter Johnson Award (Best Pitcher)

David Price (Tampa Bay Rays)
Gio Gonzalez (Washington Nationals)
R.A. Dickey (New York Mets)
Matt Cain (San Francisco Giants)
Justin Verlander (Detroit Tigers)

Stan Musial Award (Best Player)

Mike Trout (Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim)
Ryan Braun (Milwaukee Brewers)
Andrew McCutchen (Pittsburgh Pirates)
Miguel Cabrera (Detroit Tigers)
Buster Posey (San Francisco Giants)
Adrian Beltre (Texas Rangers)
Robinson Cano (New York Yankees)
Yadier Molina (St. Louis Cardinals)
David Wright (New York Mets)
Ben Zobrist (Tampa Bay Rays)

I still have plenty of ideas for new content and could talk about the postseason, which is what caused me to hit the ground running last year, but I have quite a few obstacles and other things on my mind while I continue my job search.

Perhaps this will be motivation for me to continue writing. It could help distract me from an otherwise depressing atmosphere and maybe someone will discover my talents through my blog. Who knows. Crazier things have happened and things will begin to look up eventually.

I Apologize, Google Drive

2012-10-05T22:33:00.002-05:00

I want to apologize for my absence but thank anyone who is still subscribed and/or frequenting my blog. There is plenty to talk about, though I have had difficulty motivating myself to write when I have other things on my mind such as my job search.

Google recently introduced Google Drive and I started using a new application to automatically sync my Excel spreadsheets to my Google account. I am not sure which caused the problem, but all my spreadsheets were removed and I spent the past three days re-publishing all my tables and correcting all the bad links.

I apologize if you experienced any problems with dead links or missing data. I am sure I would have been frustrated if I were trying to hunt for data only to see this:

I hope you enjoyed the regular season, your fantasy baseball teams were successful, and continue to find joy through October baseball in the MLB postseason.

Roles Reversed

2012-06-06T23:56:00.001-05:00

What's going on? Did the author of this blog die? No, I'm here.

Sorry about that, but a job search is a full-time job for an unemployed gentleman like myself.

Less than two months ago I was writing about the St. Louis Cardinals' offensive dominance and the Pittsburgh Pirates' inability to score runs. This is still generally true. The Cards have the highest run differential in the National League while the Pirates have the lowest runs scored among all teams in the Major Leagues. Be that as it may, you wouldn't realize it from the divisional standings.

The Buccos are currently one game over .500 (!) with a record of 28-27, three games behind the first place Cincinnati Reds. Pythagorean expectation shows the Pirates have been incredibly lucky and/or very efficient. James McDonald has been lights out, which is why you may be hearing his name in the same conversation with other guys like Cole Hamels, and not the typical conversation we Pirates fans are accustomed to hearing such as "J Mac was defeated by Hamels and the Phillies." A.J. Burnett has been pretty stellar as well.

Meanwhile the Cards have slid out of first place and are now tied with the Pirates thanks to to an injury induced slump. Chris Carpenter, Lance Berkman, Jon Jay, Skip Schumaker, Matt Carpenter, Kyle McClellan, and Scott Linebrink are all on the disabled list. They only need two more injuries to field a second lineup of crippled Cardinals.

I know this is not much analysis, but I still think it's rather shocking. I promise to have some more ideas coming soon for my reader(s)!

Play Two Out Rally

2012-04-23T08:00:00.000-05:00

Today I wanted to share one of my favorite baseball games: Two Out Rally.

My preemptive apologies as most of these details were taken directly from their website. Keep in mind this isn't an interactive game like MLB 12 The Show or MLB 2K12. It's actually a simulator with an RPG twist. Hopefully the following wall of text does not deter anyone from trying it.

2 Out Rally is a multi-player online role-playing game MMORPG dealing with the on-field action, off-field drama, and general excitement of the game of baseball. Registration is simple, free, and required in order to play 2 Out Rally. By registering, you create a "scout" (your username) who will recruit players, run teams, and organize leagues.

Influence
Influence is the currency of your scout and gives him the ability to change events of the world in all sorts of ways, either through Gamechangers, finding new players, purchasing boosts for his players in either experience or cash, or starting new teams. Influence can be acquired in a number of ways:

Completing hidden in-game accomplishments either during a game, over the course of a season, or for the length of a career.
Winning special tournaments or participating in community events throughout the year.
Providing articles or content to build 2 Out Rally's story.
Serving as a Tester, Administrator, or Forum Moderator for 2 Out Rally.
Purchased from our store or other participating vendors.

Barry Brawn is a
PED monster!

Player Creation
When you start your scout's career, you will begin with enough influence to build your first player with a little left over. This will get you involved in the game and playing right away. In this section, we'll go over the basics for the decisions you will have to make and what those will mean for your character.

You'll want to pick from either a pitcher or a position player immediately, as their ability sets are completely different, and each choice you make will affect them differently. The three elements that will comprise your character design are Attributes, Skills, and Biographical elements. Here's what each of these means.

Attributes are the primary ability sets for your player and represent strength in a general area of the game. If you've played an RPG before, you're probably familiar with these, but if not, don't worry; it will make perfect sense. The point value of an attribute is the sum of all points in its Skill tree (see below). When a player has associated a majority of points into one attribute, that attribute is known as the Primary Attribute or Focus.

Skills are four abilities within each attribute. These skills represent pieces of the player's abilities and allow for more specific customization to the player. For example, the Speed skill is a part of the Athleticism attribute. Adding one point to the Speed skill will add a point to the overall Athleticism Attribute.

Biographical elements are those related to your player's physical size, background, and personality type.

As soon as you've selected either a pitcher or position player, there will be 3 attributes referenced with each selection you make, and every decision you make will alter them in some way. There are countless possibilities, so don't be afraid to experiment.

Burlington Blue Devils won
the wild card in the
red division of Tier C

Finding a Team & Playing the Game
After your player is created, they will need a team. Computer controlled teams will send you offers and are fine as a last resort, but you should prefer to play on a human controlled team with more skilled players and team upgrades for the possibility of free player training. Your player earns more experience when your team wins, so this is another advantage to human controlled teams. You can advertise your player using their forum or contact team owners directly using their private message system.

During your first few levels, this will be the only real development option probably available to you - earning valuable game experience. There are a few ways to earn experience in 2 Out Rally:

Playing in Games (a static reward for being on a team that plays games)
Winning, an increased experience bonus for every time your team achieves victory.
Moving up a League Tier, which will vastly increase the amount of experience you gain. Abusing lower levelled competition isn't going to get you to the big leagues.
Rushing Your Player, where your scout expends Influence to get extra training and immediately advance in level.

Every time you earn a set amount of experience, you will advance in level, which will give you 5 more skill points to spend on your development. As you advance in level, you will become eligible to compete in bigger and better leagues, before hopefully taking the stage of the WBL itself. The experience required will increase greatly with each advancing level, so advancing will become more and more difficult as you try to reach the apex of your career.

Training
Once you find a team and start earning your salary, the hard work really begins as you will want to make sure they train every day. If your team has upgrades, then some/all of your upgrades could be free. Training also provides the possibility of receiving a bonus, which varies. Some scouts choose to save their player's salary until they can afford the option with the best experience to cost ratio ($8,000), but you may risk missing out on bonuses.

There are three types of training: fitness, celebrity, and charity. Your player receives one skill point for every level of fitness training completed. Celebrity and charity training requires you to complete 10 levels, but provides you with 13 skill points or a 5% experience boost, respectively. The common consensus is celebrity training is your best option.

Gamecast
2 Out Rally is wrapping up their 13th season. They have shown they are constantly updating and evolving this game for their users. One of the latest updates added Gamecast, which is quite similar to MLB Gameday. It allows you to replay the game and see how it actually happened. Check out the preview here.

So why am I telling you all of this? It's fun!

If you're interested in joining 2 Out Rally, then I encourage you to click the link below and try it out. Using this link will credit me with the referral. Feel free to ask me any questions. Thanks!

Starting a new team in season 14!

http://www.twooutrally.com/referral.php?rid=5088 <-- Click here to start playing!

Highs and Lows

2012-04-19T15:29:00.001-05:00

David Freese goes yard.

The St. Louis Cardinals are off to a great start this season. They are currently 9-3 with a three game lead in the NL Central division. Their offense has been tremendous as they have scored 70 runs over those 12 games, which is currently the best in all of baseball. The majority of their pitching has fared equally well, though Adam Wainwright is taking a little longer than hoped to bounce back after missing all of last season. The Cards have allowed 36 runs to their opponents and Wainwright is responsible for 11 of them, almost one third of them.

On the other hand, the Pittsburgh Pirates have only managed to begin the season with a record of 5-7 and is four games behind the Cardinals. Their pitching is keeping the team alive, while the offense already seems dead. They have only scored 26 runs thus far this season, which puts them in last place by a sizable margin of seven runs. Surprisingly, they do not have the worst record in baseball due to their pitching and defense only allowing 35 runs, which is the fourth best in baseball and one run better than the Cards.

It seems like both teams picked up where they left off last season. Doesn't it?

The Cards offense is currently dominating the majors in many offensive categories including batting average (.301), on base percentage (.367), runs (70), RBI (70), and WAR (5.9). They are also a very close second in slugging percentage (.513). The Buccos are last in nearly every category including hits (80), batting average (.205), on base percentage (.252), slugging percentage (.287), runs (26), RBI (23), and WAR (-0.3). They are second to last in homeruns with six, one more than the lowly Chicago Cubs.

Andrew McCutchen game winner.

The current major league batting average is .248 and the Pirates only have five position players who have an average above that, six if you include Kevin Correia. The Cardinals have nine above average positions players, 11 if you include Lance Lynn and Jaime Garcia. If you look at the other side of the line, the Pirates have five regular starters who are slumping while the Cards only have three.

That may sound almost comparable, but let me paint a picture for you. Pedro Alvarez and Rod Barajas both have two hits thus far this season (oddly enough, all four are extra base hits), which is the same as the Card's Lynn and Garcia. Alvarez is currently leading the majors with an atrocious 46.4% strikeout rate. That's worse than our annual leaders in whiffs: Adam Dunn and Mark Reynolds.

What does all this mean? The Cardinals are doing well right now and will be even better once Wainwright returns to form. Lance Berkman was hampered by a calf injury and will finally hit the disabled list, but the young guys on the bench have stepped up to fill his big shoes.

Generally speaking, the Pirates need to play better. They have been doing well with run prevention, but they really need to work on run creation. Alvarez and Barajas are not the only ones who need to wake up. Neil Walker, Clint Barmes, and Jose Tabata have all been dragging their feet as well.

The two teams start a three game series tomorrow in Pittsburgh, so we shall see how this story unfolds.

Fri, April 20 at 7:05pm: Charlie Morton vs. Lance Lynn
Sat, April 21 at 7:05pm: Kevin Correia vs. Jake Westbrook
Sun, April 22 at 1:35pm: Erik Bedard vs. Kyle Lohse

2012 Overall Rankings - Final Update

2012-04-02T16:52:00.000-05:00

Spring training is winding to a close and Opening Day is right around the corner. Granted, the Seattle Mariners and Oakland Athletics have already played two games in Japan.

The 25-man rosters are more-or-less set at this point. We should not see any more dramatic swings in fantasy baseball draft position unless another season-ending injury occurs, which is why this is my final update for the 2012 season overall fantasy baseball rankings. The list can be accessed by clicking here or the link at the top of the page.

I imagine many of you have their fantasy baseball teams drafted by now, but I want to make sure my readers are in the know. Here are a few noteworthy headlines to remember if you still have a draft scheduled:

Many analysts ranked Ryan Braun anticipating he would be forced to serve a 50-game suspension, but it was overturned and some lists were never updated. Removing the outliers shows he should be drafted fourth.

The following players will miss the entire season and were removed to avoid confusion:

Victor Martinez has a torn ACL in his left knee.
Ryan Madson will require Tommy John surgery on his right elbow to repair a torn ligament.
Joakim Soria will have Tommy John surgery due to ulnar collateral ligament damage.
Scott Sizemore has a torn left ACL.
Joba Chamberlain underwent Tommy John surgery in June to repair issues in his throwing elbow. He also had surgery on his right ankle to repair an open dislocation.
John Lackey underwent Tommy John surgery, not that anyone would draft him.

The following teams have notable players who may begin the season on the disabled list:

ARI: Stephen Drew (SS)
ATL: Chipper Jones (3B), Tim Hudson (SP)
BOS: Carl Crawford (LF), Josh Beckett (SP), Andrew Bailey (RP)
CIN: Madson (RP)
CLE: Grady Sizemore (CF), Jack Hannahan (3B), Chris Perez (RP)
COL: Troy Tulowitzki (SS), Jorge De La Rosa (SP)
DET: Martinez (DH/C), Brandon Inge (3B), Gerald Laird (C)
HOU: Jed Lowrie (SS), Jordan Schafer (CF)
KCR: Soria (RP), Salvador Perez (C)
LAD: Ted Lilly (SP)
MIA: Giancarlo Stanton (RF), Logan Morrison (LF)
MIL: Corey Hart (RF)
MIN: Scott Baker (SP)
NYY: Curtis Granderson (CF), Michael Pineda (SP), Nick Swisher (RF)
OAK: Sizemore (3B), Brett Anderson (SP), Manny Ramirez (LF/DH)
PHI: Ryan Howard (1B), Chase Utley (2B)
PIT: A.J. Burnett (SP), Pedro Alvarez (3B)
SDP: Carlos Quentin (RF), Tim Stauffer (SP)
SEA: Mike Carp (1B)
SFG: Freddy Sanchez (2B), Ryan Vogelsong (SP)
STL: Chris Carpenter (SP), Allen Craig (LF), Skip Schumaker (2B)
TAM: B.J. Upton (CF)
TEX: Nelson Cruz (RF)
TOR: Adam Lind (1B)
WAS: Michael Morse (1B), Drew Storen (RP)

I hope my resources were/will be helpful for your fantasy baseball drafts. Good luck in your leagues this season!

Pirates 2012 Season Preview

2012-03-21T16:29:00.000-05:00

This article was part of a Baseball Bloggers Alliance series coordinated four months ago by Mr. Bill Ivie. I volunteered to grade the Bucco's 2011 season as well as discuss the outlook on their offseason. The previous articles were originally published on Baseball Digest, however the website closed and this new article was supposed to be posted on his new blog, Full Spectrum Baseball.

Unfortunately, Mr. Ivie informed me today this will not occur:

"With the closing of Baseball Digest, many writers elected not to carry on with this project. Due to this fact, I am left with a fraction of the submissions we need and no prospects of writers for some of the remaining teams.

"While I appreciate your work on these pieces, I will not be able to publish them this season.

"Feel free to run these on your own sites or whatever you see fit. I may be in touch with a few of you to see if we can use your pieces in another capacity. For the most part, however, I will not have a home for these.

"Thank you for understanding..."

Sadder still, this also means my previous two articles vanished from the internet.I'm disappointed, but I can pick myself up, figure this out, and make the best of the situation. After all, I'm a Pirates fan!

Last Season
The Pittsburgh Pirates saw a glimmer of hope in 2011, but injuries and fatigue after the All Star break ensured their downfall to finish fourth in the standings ahead of the Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros with a 72-90 record. It was an improvement over 2010 where they finished 57-105, but it still clinched their 19th consecutive losing season.

The team lost quite a few recognizable names from their roster during the offseason including Ryan Doumit, Paul Maholm, Ronny Cedeno, Ross Ohlendorf, and Chris Snyder as well as their mid-season acquisitions, Derrek Lee and Ryan Ludwick. That is a long list to recover, but I believe they managed their resources to the best of their ability, although they may still have the lowest payroll in the MLB thanks in part to Miami’s spending splurge.

The Rotation
Young pitching is what carried the team along last season until their arms tired out. They have quite a few candidates to start this season. Charlie Morton, James McDonald, Jeff Karstens, and Kevin Correia are all returning; Erik Bedard signed via free agency for $4.5M, which is a potential steal; and A.J. Burnett was acquired via trade from the New York Yankees and is only responsible for $13M of his $33M salary through 2013.

The Bedard and Burnett acquisitions were the most exciting among our offseason. Bedard has been injury prone and Burnett allows a lot of homers, but I am happy to have some strikeout potential in this rotation beyond McDonald. Both average almost one strikeout per inning pitched and will play pivotal roles.

Morton and Burnett are recovering from surgery and may begin the season on the disabled list, which means their rotation currently consists of Bedard, McDonald, Karstens, Correia, and Lincoln. Once everyone is healthy, I expect Correia and Lincoln will be demoted to the bullpen and/or minors to yield this rotation: Burnett, Bedard, Morton, McDonald, Karstens.

Starting Pitching in the Organization
Brad Lincoln, Kyle McPherson, Jeff Locke, and Rudy Owens are ready to go in the minors. Expect to see Lincoln and McPherson as soon as April due to injuries, while Locke and Owens are both lefties who can provide diversity in a right-handed heavy pitching system. Their prized arms, however, are first round picks Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon who may be ready as early as late 2013.

The Bullpen
Joel Hanrahan was elected the closer last season and did not make them regret their decision. Jose Veras, Chris Resop, and Jason Grilli dazzled, while Evan Meek spent most of the season struggling and on the disabled list. I would expect a bounce back season from Meek, although he may not get the opportunity after a rough spring.

Veras was dealt to the Milwaukee Brewers over the offseason, but you should recognize many of the other names in the bullpen this season. Hanrahan will stick around to close with Meek, Grilli, and Resop setting him up. Daniel Moskos and Tony Watson will probably stick around as the only viable lefty specialists unless they struggle. Daniel McCutchen rounds out the back of the bullpen, but Jared Hughes, Chris Leroux, Duke Welker, Bryan Morris, and Justin Wilson are ready to move in.

The Backstop
Our front office sent Doumit and Snyder packing after the season ended and hope to replace him with the acquisition of Rod Barajas. He offers excellent defense behind the plate with some home run power, but his health may be of concern as he has only exceeded 100 games in a season four times in his 13 year career. Michael McKenry is currently the most likely candidate to back him up.

The Corners
The Pirates front office wanted to find someone to play first base, but they didn’t sign anyone we expected. Garrett Jones will platoon with Casey McGehee. McGehee can play either first or third, which makes him even more valuable if Pedro Alvarez performs dismally again this season. All three players have the potential to hit 20 home runs or more.

Up the Middle
Neil Walker will start at second base and is a contract extension candidate. His new double play partner at shortstop will be Clint Barmes who is a defensive upgrade over Cedeno. We should not expect much more than 20 homers between the two of them. Walker will hit for average, while Barmes will probably bat on the bottom of the lineup.

The Outfield
Alex Presley, Andrew McCutchen, and Jose Tabata will cover the outfield for next season barring any injuries. Presley was impressive while appearing in short service this past season, while Tabata spent most of the season dealing with injuries. McCutchen continued to deliver as the face of the franchise with impressive speed and an increase of power. All three players have the potential to steal 20 bases or more.

Tabata signed a contract late last season to secure him through 2019, while McCutchen just signed a $51.5M contract extension on Sunday, March 4th. The extension secures him potentially through 2018.

The Bench
There is not much to write home about regarding the Pirates bench. McKenry will back up Barajas, McGehee will back up the corner infield, Josh Harrison can play second or third base, Yamaico Navarro can back up the middle infield or outfield, and Nate McLouth is back in black and gold to provide more depth in the outfield.

The Minors
I predicted Matt Hague would make his debut in my last article I wrote in December. I stick by that prediction considering our first base situation. Starling Marte has the most recognizable talent and would help an ailing Pirates offense, but there is a logjam in the outfield. Both have been excellent in spring training this year. McPherson, Locke, and Owens could make their debuts as well if injuries plague the rotation again this season.

Created using Tagxedo

Team MVP: Andrew McCutchen
Team Ace: Erik Bedard
Team's 2012 record: 76 - 86
Team's 2012 finish in division: 4th in NL Central

McCutchen should outperform the rest of the team once again and could continue to improve to provide his best season. He is already a 20/20 hitter, but could he do better? Bedard has not completed a full season without injury since 2007, but he is healthy now and has the potential to be a staff ace.

Pittsburgh made some promising moves during this offseason and reportedly pursued several other big name players. This is definitely a step in the right direction and we should see some improvement over our 2011 season, especially if everyone stays healthy. I would love for the Buccos end the curse of Barry Bonds. It is possible we could earn a few more wins with the exodus of Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder from the division, but I do not believe enough progress was made to the roster to crack the .500 threshold this season.

Pittsburgh Pirates 2011 Report Card
Pittsburgh Pirates 2012 Offseason Outlook
Pittsburgh Pirates 2012 Season Preview

Join My Fantasy Baseball League

2012-03-19T08:00:00.000-05:00

I was recently contacted by my sister's boyfriend who wanted to play in a fantasy baseball league. We hashed out some of the details, then I spoke to my girlfriend's brother who was interested as well. I am already committed to six other teams, but I have not played with anyone I personally knew since Ryan's Baseball League in 1998. I could not pass up the opportunity to play with two of my future brothers-in-law.

That's where you come in.

Dearest Readers,

We are seeking a few passionate, knowledgeable, and respectful individuals to participate in our fantasy baseball league. Here are the details:

The league will be hosted on Yahoo and is free to join.
This will be a head-to-head league with a standard 5x5 scoring system.
A live snake draft will occur on Tuesday, March 27th at 7:00pm CST.

You should be able to view the league using the following link, but will need a password to sign up. If you're interested, then please contact me using Twitter/Facebook/email or simply leave a comment.

http://baseball.fantasysports.yahoo.com/league/aath_baseball

Let me take this opportunity to share a new photo I created for the Facebook fan page. I received a notification indicating I would be forced into the timeline interface later this month, so I decided to create a nice cover page and accepted the conversion ahead of time. Let me know if you like the image.

Be sure to like me on Facebook and follow me on Twitter.

Thank you!

Brain Over Braun

2012-03-07T14:43:00.002-06:00

Ryan Braun was declared the National League MVP in 2011 and many analysts declared him the number one draft pick in fantasy baseball leagues until he was accused of using a performance-enhancing drug on December 10, 2011. He faced a 50-game suspension, which would have caused him to miss almost one third of the season and seriously hurt his fantasy value because of it.

Ryan Braun was shocked when he was accused of using PEDs in 2011.

Braun finally won his appeal on February 23, 2012. He stated during a press conference, "I am very pleased and relieved by today's decision. It is the first step in restoring my good name and reputation. We were able to get through this because I am innocent and the truth is on our side."

Many analysts corrected their rankings and projections as soon as this occurred, while some dragged their feet. It has been two weeks since that announcement, yet three of my 14 references still show him as a 31st draft pick or worse which is causing his rank on my 2012 Overall Fantasy Baseball Rankings spreadsheet to skew. The Yahoo Draft Average takes every draft into account, including those before the appeal was announced, so this variance is understandable and will correct itself over time. ClubHouseGM and Fantasy Baseball Crackerjacks released their draft kits in mid-February before the appeal and still have him ranked 41st and 76th, respectively.

What happens if these outliers are ignored?

Removing these erroneous values updates Braun on this compilation from a 14th overall pick to 4th behind Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols, and Matt Kemp. His standard deviation is reduced from 106th (21.67) to 6th (2.54), while his weighted and unweighted ranks are both improved to 4th.

This is a great example why I decided to calculate and include the standard deviation value for every player. I am not going to omit these three data sets from my compilation even though they may be outdated compared to the others. They may be inaccurate in regards to Braun, but everything else is great.

Just remember it should be an easy decision to take Braun in the top half of the first round.

Stat Targets in Roto Leagues

2012-03-01T11:00:00.000-06:00

Michael Marinakis from Fantasy Baseball Cafe and Jeff Furtah from ClubHouseGM both wrote about statistics you should target when you draft your fantasy baseball team in a rotisserie league. They were written in regards to different league formats, however both came to similar conclusions.

You do not need to win every category in your league to win. Your goal is to create a balanced team who can reach 3rd or 4th place in each category. Jeff reinforced this idea using his past experiences, while Michael shared his success from a mock draft using projections. The winners in his 12 team leagues averaged 98 points, which varied from 96 to 101. I can also attest to the accuracy of his data by comparing it to my own. The winners of my previous leagues in the same format averaged 97 points, which varied from 85 to 110. If you strive beyond third place, then you may be wasting your picks or resources.

For example, a team led the saves category in one of my league's last season with 168 while the team behind them only had 120. That effectively means they had one more closer than necessary. You could make the argument that perhaps their goal was to pad their ERA and WHIP categories with relief pitchers, though I can assure you they failed in both categories. Their offense was middle of the road and their pitching was poor aside from saves. If this team in question had not allocated their draft picks poorly by acquiring an overabundance of closers so early in the draft, then perhaps they would have fared better in the league.

Both writers predicted an alleged goal for a winning team in a league of the format they covered. They admit their provided information may not be useful unless you participate in their league type, though Jeff claims he has a solution and offers individual player averages:

"The reason the individual numbers are so important is you can simply take the number of roster spots you have for both hitters and pitchers and multiply that by the averages here to get the totals you need to strive for. Obviously if you are in a deeper league (in terms of teams or roster spots) the averages would be slightly less and if your in a league with less than 12 teams or fewer roster spots they'll be slightly higher.

"Once you have your total stats needed, either using the overall numbers above or by modifying the averages to fit your league, you need to create a simple spreadsheet. As you're drafting your team fill in the projections for each player. As you start adding up the totals you can quickly identify gaps so you're not scrambling near the end of your draft."

The following table compares the average statistics gathered from several of my mock drafts from ESPN and my Yahoo fantasy baseball leagues from the past two seasons. Our supposed statistical goals at third and fourth place are emboldened.

The standard rotisserie league format is quite different when you compare an ESPN mock draft to a Yahoo fantasy league even though they may both use a 12 team format. Yahoo drafts 23 players for 10 hitting positions, 8 pitchers, and 5 bench holders; while ESPN is a little deeper with 25 players drafted for 13 hitting positions, 9 pitchers, and 3 bench holders.

The target data I provided above was calculated simply by using the opposite of Jeff's calculation. The ESPN data was divided by their available hitting and pitching positions (rather than multiplying), likewise with Yahoo, while disregarding the bench.

ESPN's projection system is slightly skewed because it includes your draft picks on the bench whose statistics should not be included in a true league. This explains the variance from Jeff's estimate, otherwise I can agree his data is quite accurate and a great starting point when you prepare before your draft day.

You can find this information and much more when you use the ClubHouseGM 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit.
I recommend checking it out.

The Boy and His Baseball Game

2012-02-24T18:31:00.001-06:00

I hope to join Full Spectrum Baseball in their fantasy baseball league opportunity and here is a story to outline all of my credentials.

Dear Mr. Fantasy recently wrote an article entitled Fantasy Baseball: An Early Form of Social Media. He recollected his first fantasy baseball league in 1992. Twenty years ago! I thought it would be neat to recollect my fantasy baseball history as well.

The title of this post was inspired by a story written by Day[9]TV, "The Boy And His Game."

If you read my introductory post when this blog was first created in September of 2011 or read my About section, then you know I have been a huge baseball fan since I was very young. I could not play well, so I did the only things available to an nonathletic nerd: I went to games, followed the statistics, and collected baseball cards. When that wasn't enough, I decided to take it a step further and created my own fantasy baseball league. Of course I never called it fantasy baseball because I did not yet realize it existed.

This began with a simple game I received when I was only ten years old. It involved placing baseball cards into their corresponding positions on a mat shaped like a baseball field, then you would spin a wheel to determine the fate of the batter (single, double, strikeout, etc). This enhanced my craving for more baseball cards and held my interest for a while until I yearned for more.

I decided to expand upon this idea sometime after my parents purchased our family's first computer, an Apple Macintosh Performa LC 500 series. It was an "all-in-one" with the system built into the monitor. The most unique feature was the CD-ROM drive that popped out like a cassette. I eventually got the hang of how to use a computer and wanted to use it for everything.

All of the data I created and recorded before the computer has since been lost because everything at the time was done by hand. A new era began in 1996 when I was a mere twelve years old. Of course I cannot recollect everything from that time period as it was half a lifetime ago, but I can infer everything I found stored in my 15 year old binder.

"Ryan's Baseball League" was not your typical fantasy baseball league. It began simply as a transposition of one team's record into another fictional team I created. The leagues were laid out identically to the MLB at the time and teams were matched up by randomly assigning them from out of a hat (i.e. Phoenix Falcons = Houston Astros, Denver Avalance = California Angels, etc). I gathered the data from our local newspaper since we did not have the internet quite yet and calculated the standings. Keep in mind, I was only twelve years old.

I asked some of my friends to become managers in my league in 1997. Eight people agreed to join and I decided to take the league a step further by drafting the players to the teams as well. I do not recall how the players were drafted, though I am certain some favoritism was involved for teams with human managers. I determined both league's MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year, and wrote a story about their playoff race.

The most notable addition to this season was the addition of two new teams to bring the team total to 30 and balance the leagues at 15 teams each. Why is this special? The Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays and Arizona Diamondbacks were added to the MLB in 1998, so how on earth did I come up with the standings? I wish I could recall how I decided upon the team standings in 1997 because it may explain what happened next.

The league continued into 1998 with the addition of two more managers. I must have stumbled upon MacPaint while I was feeling exceptionally creative because I made logos for all 30 teams. Most of them are pretty lame, then I remember I was fourteen. I have to admit I am quite proud of my logos I created for the Charlotte Spurs, Atlanta Heat, Cleveland Cobras, and San Antonio Suns. My girlfriend liked the Denver Avalanche, Houston Black Hawks, Jacksonville Manta Rays, and Seattle Squids. This was also the year I discovered Comic Sans as you can see from the photos.

The league rolled along without much change from the previous season. The standings were determined and the playoff stories were written. One of the newest additions to the league included statistical leaders to support my awards. A quick glance at Baseball Reference shows I must have gathered the data from the newspaper once again.

The most exciting thing I discovered from this binder was the last photo I included in the album, Stadiums of "Ryan's League." The first thing I asked myself when I rediscovered these pages was "Did I to figure out park factors?" I was a smart kid, but I don't believe I can credit myself for that.

Unfortunately that is where the binder ends and I can only assume why because of a combination of several reasons: 1) My friends no longer cared for baseball as the Pirates were constantly losing, 2) I was in middle school and had trouble finding the time, 3) Girls became attractive once they lost their cooties, and 4) I found fantasy baseball online.

As you can see, I am a fantasy baseball veteran and intend to manage at least five teams this season. I have not placed higher than fourth since returning in 2010, but plan to change that this year. Although I experienced I hiatus from the sport during the mid-2000s, I am following the game more closely than ever. Why else would I have a blog about baseball?

If there is prevailing interest in my childhood baseball league binder, then I may properly scan all the pages from my binder to include in the album but keep in mind it's extensive. Leave a comment or contact me via Twitter/Facebook/email if you're interested!

Yahoo Top 400 Rankings

2012-02-17T23:50:00.000-06:00

Did anyone else realize it is unusually difficult to access the Yahoo fantasy baseball player rankings?

Yahoo's baseball experts published their top 100 recently, but that is a far cry from what is needed to prepare for your draft. Not including Yahoo on my list is ridiculous as they are one of the fantasy sports leaders, especially if your teams are drafted here, so I tried to reach out to them for answers:

@AATH_Baseball Maybe the closest public page: sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/mlb/ne…. If you have a team you can view all ranks on our Players page.
— Yahoo Fantasy Sports (@YahooFantasy) February 14, 2012

This was problematic as I am not planning on drafting my first team at least until March. Luckily I have a friend who already has a team and was gracious enough to copy the data into a spreadsheet for me. It took a lot of time from his afternoon and I am very thankful for it.

While he did this for me, I jumped into a mock draft by myself and copied their overall draft rankings to compare them against the experts. All of this data can be found in my updated spreadsheet which is still available via the tab on the top of this page or you can simply click here.

Additionally, I want to provide this data we retrieved to everyone. You can access this spreadsheet using the following link. Some names may be slightly misspelled and it's not as "pretty," but it's legitimate data from Yahoo. Please use it and enjoy it.

Yahoo Top 400 - 2012 Rankings

Fantasy Foot Race

2012-02-15T18:27:00.003-06:00

One for the money...
You may not be keeping a watchful eye on my post that contains my 2012 fantasy baseball overall ranks, but it has been updated several times since it was first re-published on February 2nd. In case you don't have the page bookmarked already, you can access the list using the tab on the top of the page or this link.

Several new contributors were selected in addition to those who were previously mentioned. These new websites include Fantasy Baseball Cafe, Fox Sports, and The Hardball Times.

I would very much like to include Yahoo's list, but it is only available to players who currently have a team or have an official draft scheduled. I do not intend to draft my first team until at least March 1st after Spring Training actually starts. They do have a top 100 available to the general public, but I am avoiding lists shorter than 250 players. If you happen to have this list available to you and would like to share it with me and everyone else by proxy, then please contact me.

Two for the show...
In my travels across the web, I discovered two websites who had the same idea as mine. Feel free to check them out and compare my list to theirs.

Fantasy Pros - Expert Consensus Ranking
Mr. Cheatsheet - 2012 Roto Draft Cheatsheet

Three to get set...
I took my spreadsheet for a test drive in a three mock drafts just to see how it functioned, if it worked at all. Check out the results and let me know what you think:

Mock Draft #1	Mock Draft #2	Mock Draft #3
Draft Position: 3rd 1. Albert Pujols (LAA - 1B) 2. Andrew McCutchen (Pit - OF) 3. Cliff Lee (Phi - SP) 4. Ben Zobrist (TB - 2B,OF) 5. Mike Napoli (Tex - C,1B) 6. Yu Darvish (Tex - SP) 7. Asdrubal Cabrera (Cle - SS) 8. Drew Stubbs (Cin - OF) 9. Brian Wilson (SF - RP) 10. Jesus Montero (Sea - Util) 11. Chris Young (Ari - OF) 12. Sergio Santos (Tor - RP) 13. Shaun Marcum (Mil - SP) 14. Mike Moustakas (KC - 3B) 15. Adam Lind (Tor - 1B) 16. Derek Holland (Tex - SP) 17. Doug Fister (Det - SP) 18. Matt Joyce (TB - OF) 19. Colby Lewis (Tex - SP) 20. Chris Capuano (LAD - SP) 21. Trevor Cahill (Ari - SP) 22. David Robertson (NYY - RP) 23. Zack Cozart (Cin - SS)	Draft Position: 10th 1. Jacoby Ellsbury (Bos - OF) 2. Evan Longoria (TB - 3B) 3. Matt Holliday (StL - OF) 4. Carlos Santana (Cle - C,1B) 5. Eric Hosmer (KC - 1B) 6. Brandon Phillips (Cin - 2B) 7. James Shields (TB - SP) 8. Carl Crawford (Bos - OF) 9. Adam Wainwright (StL - SP) 10. Joel Hanrahan (Pit - RP) 11. Nick Markakis (Bal - OF) 12. Chris Carpenter (StL - SP) 13. Jason Motte (StL - RP) 14. Doug Fister (Det - SP) 15. Emilio Bonifacio (Mia - 3B,SS,OF) 16. Matt Joyce (TB - OF) 17. Colby Lewis (Tex - SP) 18. Ryan Roberts (Ari - 2B,3B) 19. Roy Oswalt (Phi - SP) 20. Trevor Cahill (Ari - SP) 21. Jonny Venters (Atl - RP) 22. Mike Trout (LAA - OF) 23. Shelby Miller (StL - RP)	Draft Position: 12th 1. Evan Longoria (TB - 3B) 2. Dustin Pedroia (Bos - 2B) 3. Matt Holliday (StL - OF) 4. Mike Napoli (Tex - C,1B) 5. Eric Hosmer (KC - 1B) 6. Jon Lester (Bos - SP) 7. Mariano Rivera (NYY - RP) 8. Drew Storen (Was - RP) 9. Drew Stubbs (Cin - OF) 10. Mat Latos (Cin - SP) 11. Freddie Freeman (Atl - 1B) 12. Jordan Zimmermann (Was - SP) 13. Nick Markakis (Bal - OF) 14. Erick Aybar (LAA - SS) 15. Ervin Santana (LAA - SP) 16. Jaime García (StL - SP) 17. John Danks (CWS - SP) 18. Matt Joyce (TB - OF) 19. Trevor Cahill (Ari - SP) 20. Jose Tabata (Pit - OF) 21. Ryan Roberts (Ari - 2B,3B) 22. Ricky Nolasco (Mia - SP) 23. Tyler Clippard (Was - RP)

And four to go!
Just a friendly reminder to experiment in these mock drafts while given the opportunity. This season I am considering spending a pick on a non-closer relief pitcher in order to buffer my ERA and WHIP categories. There's no better place to test strategies than mock drafts.

2012 Overall Fantasy Baseball Rankings

2012-02-02T07:30:00.000-06:00

Updated April 2, 2012 *The average draft round (ADR) presumes your participation in a standard 12 team league.

Code	Website Name	Twitter	Weighted Value	Last Update
CBS	CBS Fantasy Sports	@CBSFantasyBB	1	April 2
CHGM	ClubHouse GM	@ClubHouseGM	2	February 17
ESPN	ESPN Fantasy Staff	@ESPNFantasy	1	March 30
FBC	Fantasy Baseball Cafe	@FBC_GiantsFan14	1	February 24
FBCJ	Fantasy Baseball Crackerjacks	@FBCrackerjacks	3	February 12
FGD	Fantasy Gameday	@Fantasy_Gameday	5	March 6
FOX	FOX Sports	@FOXSportsFowler	1	March 7
MB	Matthew Berry from ESPN	@MatthewBerryTMR	1	March 20
RB	Razzball	@Razzball	1	February 23
RC	Roto Champ	@RotoChamp	1	April 1
RS	Roto Summit	@JesseSakstrup	1	March 26
THC	Tristan H. Cockcroft from ESPN	@SultanofStat	1	March 27
THT	The Hardball Times	@THTFantasy	4	April 1
YAVG	Yahoo Draft Average	@YahooFantasy	1	April 2
YHOO	Yahoo Experts	@YahooNoise	4	April 2

Players who will not play in 2012 were removed to avoid the possibility of old data misleading anyone.

I will try to make every attempt to update this page frequently to make sure the information is up to date. Please contact me with any errors you may discover or if you find another reputable website with a similar top overall ranking. I've compiled the data from the following websites to create the average rank for nearly 500 players. If a player did not appear on a resource's list, then they were assigned a static value of 500.

What is the purpose of this spreadsheet?
Everyone has their own opinions regarding where a baseball player should be ranked during a fantasy baseball draft. These opinions are ever evolving, especially during the offseason while some men are still seeking a new home. How can you trust one resource? This is a compilation of lists sorted using unweighted as well as weighted rankings. The weighted value was determined for each website depending upon how many individuals were polled for their overall list.

Why should I care about standard deviation?
A low standard deviation indicates the data points tend to be very close to the mean, whereas high standard deviation indicates the data points are spread out over a large range of values. Simply put, it is a measure of confidence between every website I referenced.

For example, every website ranked Albert Pujols in their top three which is why he has the lowest standard deviation and why you should draft him with the highest confidence. Most of your top round candidates have a standard deviation of 20 or lower, so you can presume a score higher than 20 represents some sort of risk.

Ryan Braun ~~could miss 50 games due to a PED suspension.~~ Suspension appealed, waiting for updates!
Carl Crawford may not bounce back.
Lance Berkman may not have a repeat performance.
Kevin Youkilis has been injury prone.
Josh Johnson & Adam Wainwright are recovering from injuries.
Ryan Howard will start the season late.

Standard deviation may not actually indicate a possible performance issue as it may just represent indecision. A great example is Yu Darvish who is a potential ace, but no one can be sure as he has never faced batters in the Major League. He was generally ranked anywhere from 79th to 131st, which means he can be expected to draft somewhere between rounds 7 and 11. FOX was the greatest outlier who ranked him the highest at 253, but don't count on him staying on the board that long.

This wariness allows you the potential to draft someone later as long as everyone else in your draft carries the same mutual uncertainty, but Yu better not count on it.

Sorry, I went there.

Not Dead, Just Planning Ahead

2012-02-01T18:49:00.000-06:00

I realize it has been over two weeks since my last article, but I am still alive and kicking. I have been working on several ideas at once rather than one at a time, but the most notable will be published tomorrow. I finally received the data I was waiting on in order to continue my fantasy baseball draft compilation and found a way to have it "automatically" update itself. Everything was entered manually up until that point, so doing this helped me recognize and correct several small errors, such as players who were ranked incorrectly, missing, and sorted improperly. Get excited!

Here are a few topics I'm still working on. Feel free to express any enthusiasm or disinterest.

Payroll Win Efficiency: How much does a team pay to win?
How Houston Moving Affects the MLB
MLB Divisional Travel Efficiency
League Realignment Proposals
MLB Expansion Ideas
How to Expand the MLB Playoffs

I have been enjoying a baseball simulation game called Two Out Rally which is a multiplayer online role-playing game. You play the game as a scout who can create players, write their stories, distribute their skill points, sign a contract with a team, train, and essentially help guide their destiny as a baseball player. You also have the ability to create and run your own team.

Season 12 just started with the introduction of Gamecast, which was inspired by the style of the ESPN baseball Gamecast. The developers are very responsive to ideas and there are always scouts around to help. If you're interested, then you should check them out and create a player using the link below so I can refer you.

http://www.twooutrally.com/referral.php?rid=5088

In other news, my girlfriend suddenly became a baseball card collecting enthusiast when she saw the newest Rally Squirrel baseball card coming in 2012 Topps Series 1. I admit. It is cute.

Before you leave today, please cast your vote for my 2012 fantasy baseball team names based upon the formerly popular Super Nintendo game, Super Baseball 2020. Select as many names as you want. Thanks!

My Reply: What Else Should the Pirates Do?

2012-01-17T20:46:00.001-06:00

Battling Bucs just posted a new article this evening entitled What Else Should the Pirates Do? I wanted to respond to them with my own thoughts, but it got lengthy and out of hand and decided to simply write about it myself.

I highly suggest reading his original post before checking out my response to it.

I agree the Pirates are essentially the same team as last year. Their free agent losses were offset by those who were acquired thus far, but I think there's still an opportunity to improve. He requests a more "serviceable" backstop option behind Rod Barajas, Michael McKenry, and Jose Morales then suggests Chris Snyder who seems to be the last semi-viable catcher left on the free agent market. His price may be lower than the $6.75 million contract option which was declined, but I'm not sure I can justify providing a backup catcher a multimillion dollar contract. The catcher position has been fairly weak over the course of history, aside from a few notable exceptions, so I feel the money could be better spent elsewhere.

I've looked at a few projected 25-man rosters for the Pittsburgh Pirates and it is still quite depressing even after the acquisitions made this offseason. Andrew McCutchen deserves to bat third, which Battling Bucs' projection displays, but Neil Walker batting cleanup is joke. The team is still missing a bat with power, which was supposedly a priority. Perhaps Pedro Alvarez will snap out of his funk, but I won't bet money on it.

Although there are several healthy options to play first base, he chooses to stick with Garrett Jones and Casey McGehee who will be under team control for the next four and three seasons, respectively. It's an interesting decision, though McGehee had a performance comparably dismal performance last season similar to Alvarez. They both have the potential to hit 20 or more home runs, so it is possible they could eventually land into the #4 and #5 slots of the Pirates lineup behind McCutchen.

Unfortunately, I don't share his optimism and would prefer to acquire a free agent, if only for a season or two. Derrek Lee and Carlos Pena are both almost certainly waiting until Prince Fielder signs, then the scramble will begin for first baseman. Lee experienced a small resurgence when he was traded to Pittsburgh last July, though I suppose I can understand why he would prefer not to come back. If either player would swallow their pride to play for the lowly Pirates, then we would have someone who could hit 20 or more home runs and would be a clear choice to bat cleanup.

I'm excited to see what Erik Bedard can do for us and hope he stays healthy for most of the season. Kevin Correia has me worried considering how poorly he did when he pitched at home. The rest of the rotation is still quite young, so maybe last season's experiences will help them grow and develop into better pitchers in 2012. Our rotation is not very threatening no matter how you look at it and understand his reasoning toward Jeff Francis.

Francis would be a conventional, low-risk decision similar to when Correia was acquired last season, but I still would prefer my previous suggestion, Brandon Webb: high-risk with the potential of high reward at little cost. The next exciting option beyond Webb is Roy Oswalt, who supposedly lowered his asking price and just may be Pirates price range. They will never land Lee/Pena and Oswalt, though it is increasingly doubtful they will end up with any of them.

I published my pitching article less than a week ago and four of my top nine options have signed since then, so they're falling fast now with only 32 days left until pitchers/catchers report for Spring Training and 78 days until Opening Day.

Fantasy Baseball Team Names: Which team names should be chosen from Super Baseball 2020?
	American Dreams
	Tokyo Samurais
	Naples Seagulls
	Taiwan Megapowers
	Korea Dragoon
	Battle Angels
	Battle Heroes
	Ninja Blacksox
	Aussie Battlers
	Mechanical Brains
	Metal Slashers
	Tropical Girls

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