Observations OS

Covid-19 Risk and Mitigation

2021-08-09T05:19:00.003-05:00

Covid-!9 Risks and Mitigation

There are several factors that predispose individuals to greater risk of developing severe Covid-19 symptoms or increasing ones risk of potentially dying. Some are listed and explored below. What can be done to mitigate these potential risks are also touched on further down have a look it may save your life or your love ones.

Covid Severity and Mortality Risk factors:

Risk Increase with age.

Elderly

Risk increases with compromised immune system.

Individuals with Cancer, AIDS, Asthma, Sickle cell.
New-born babies

Risk increases with pre-existing NCD.

Obesity & Cardiovascular disease
Diabetes, Hypertension

Hypertensive individuals on blood pressure lowering drugs.

Risk increases with Gender.

Males are at higher risk.

Risk increases with darker skin tone.

Darker you are the less Vitamin D₃ you naturally produce.

Risk increases with Geographic location during winter periods.

Closer you are to the poles the less Vitamin D₃ you are likely to produce during the winter month.

Risk increases with Blood type A

High Risk & Vulnerable individuals:

Elderly
People with compromised immune systems
People with certain chronic disease
Males
Dark skin or black people
You live close to the poles during the winter period
New-born babies

The most vulnerable persons would therefore be black male over 65years old with Blood type A and a cardiovascular disease living in North America or Europe.

One common thread connecting the risk are low Vitamin D3 levels. Which would suggest increasing these levels may reduce ones risk of death or developing sever symptoms.

Risk Mitigation Notes:

The risk of death increases with age, gender, and comorbidities but they are not a death sentence.
Not everyone infected with Covid-19 dies. Survivors also include individuals over 65 with comorbidities.

91% of individuals over 65 years old are statistically capable of surviving with treatment.

Risk of death may potentially be reduced in high-risk individuals if they take active pre-emptive steps to improve their health.

Know your health risks.
Get vaccinated if you are at increased risk for death.
Boost your health by eating healthy, exercising, and resting in accordance with the recommendations by your medical doctor.

Consulting your doctors about supplementing with Vitamin D3 is highly recommended.

Know the symptoms and self-evaluate to achieve early detection.
Pre-emptively determine your potential course of treatment with your doctor in the event of contracting Covid-19 particularly for higher risk individuals.

A path to Covid-19 Survivability.

A path to Covid-19 survivability and Herd Immunity, Jamaica's perspective.

2021-07-30T03:33:00.000-05:00

Just how dangerous is Covid-19? What's the current state of herd immunity?

Below I take a peak at some numbers and show how the Jamaica's current infection state impacts herd immunity.

Age Group	Jamaica's Total population 2018 ¹	Infection Fatality Ratio ²	Statistically at Risk Population	Confirmed Covid Cases by Age Group ³	Covid Deaths by Age Group ³	Care Fatality Rates
65+ year old	249,789	9.000%	22,481	8,630	719	8%
50 to 64 year old	398,807	0.600%	2,393	9,987	314	3%
18 to 49 years old	1,360,369	0.050%	680	27,232	139	1%
0 to 17 year old	718,537	0.002%	14	6,654	10	0%
Totals & Averages	2,727,502	1%	25,568	52,503	1,182	2%

Jamaica's Covid-19 Notes

As of July 23, 2021 over 120,000 Jamaican's have been fully vaccinated. ⁴
As of July 28, 2021 over 46, 000 covid-19 infected Jamaican's have recovered. ³
Statistically 30% of infections are Asymptomatic.²

Probable 15% of infected and recovered population not statistically accounted for(6,900).

Herd immunity population:

Is effectively over 166,000 Jamaican's or 5.6% of population(2,945,000).
Theoretically probable immune population: Over 173,000 or 5.9%.

References:

1. Statin Jamaica: https://statinja.gov.jm/Demo_SocialStats/newMidYearPopulationbyAgeandSex2008.aspx1

2. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention(CDC) USA: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

3. Ministry of Health & Wellness, Jamcovid19 (Data as of July 29, 2021): https://jamcovid19.moh.gov.jm/

4. Ministry of Health & Wellness, Covid-19 Vax Track: https://www.moh.gov.jm/updates/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccination-tracker/

Jamaica's fuel cost Journey, 2020 to 2021.

2021-07-28T03:11:00.004-05:00

Most people should be feeling the impact fuel cost have been having on their finances. Without a doubt this is driving inflation and impacting the cost of living. But how did it get here?

World Oil Prices crashed in April 2020

For approximately two weeks between April 16 and May 1, 2020 US WTI Oil price traded for less than US$20/barrel.

WhatsApp status post querying the Jamaican government to buy an oil and gas hedge. April 16, 2020.

Government Response

Minister tasked the BoJ and MoF to review hedging options. - April 20, 2020.

https://mof.gov.jm/mof-media/media-centre/press/2643-statement-from-the-minister-of-finance-and-the-public-service-on-potential-oil-price-hedging.html

Finance Minister praises decision not to go ahead with oil hedging as prices hit record low. - April 20, 2020.

http://radiojamaicanewsonline.com/local/finance-minister-praises-decision-not-to-go-ahead-with-oil-hedging-as-prices-hit-record-low

Jamaica decides against new oil hedge. - September 18, 2020.

https://jamaica-gleaner.com/article/business/20200918/jamaica-decides-against-new-oil-hedge

Current World Oil Price

July 27, 2021 US WTI Oil price trades for over US$70/barrel. Between May 2020 and July 2021 WTI Oil prices have risen approximately 250%.

One can only imagine the potential savings that might have been had were a hedge option bought, and imagine just how that might have potentially contributed to the health sector in the current Covid-19 environment.

Jamaica's Exchange Rate Impact

	April 2020	June 2021
US$1	139.66	150.15

Dollar devalued by approximately 7.5%

Ex-Refinery Fuel Prices

Fuel Type	April 16, 2020	July 22, 2021	Rate of increase (%)
Gasoline 87	119.73	153.35	28
Gasoline 90	122.57	161.71	32
Auto Diesel	116.96	143.90	23

When one considers just how much travelling one has to do this could truly be impactful on one's personal finances.

Caribbean Neighbor did it, so what's really behind Jamaica's decision?

IDB Partners with Bahamas to Launch New Oil Hedging Solution For BPL. - July 15, 2020

https://www.iadb.org/en/news/idb-partners-bahamas-launch-new-oil-hedging-solution-bpl

While all that has happened this is how the economy has turned out.

Total value added for the Jamaican economy grew by 0.6 per cent when compared to the fourth quarter of 2020.
Jamaican economy contracted by 6.7% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2021.
The economy declined by 11.0 per cent for the fiscal year 2020/2021 compared to fiscal year 2019/2020, reflecting the impact of COVID-19.

Jamaica's GDP Growth 2020 to 2021 March.

International Merchandise Trade

Stay tuned and look out for more revelations on the economy, covid-19 and the environment.

Tourism is great and will only get greater - Jamaica's Secret ....

2015-01-20T03:06:00.002-05:00

Tourism Opportunities

Reiterating, Brand Jamaica is larger than ever and continues to grow. This is in no small part due to the continued exploits of the sports and entertainment talents of Jamaicans. An effect that is then compounded by the diaspora.

The Tourism Industry has been a major beneficiary and will continue to be in the foreseeable future. The industry has been seeing meaningful growth over the last 3 years. It is projected to compound this growth by at least two (2) percent over the next few years. 2014 alone saw an increase in tourist arrivals by 4%. Jamaica’s True Treasures continues to be unearthed.

Growing Stopover arrivals. Source: Jamaica Tourist Board

The data and information below highlights just how big Tourism is and how it has the potential to transform Jamaica and Jamaicans. Approximately 1 Billion individuals (just over 14% of the world's population) traveled to another country year in 2013. Roughly 25.1 million tourists from across the globe visited the Caribbean in 2013. Approximately 61.5 million American left their shores in 2013. 6.5 Million of them travelled to the Caribbean in 2013. As a result a large proportion of travelers are looking for travel and vacation related information.

Colidez Sweet Music Jamaica Tech Life

A record 2 million Stopover visitor from all over the world came to Jamaica in 2013. 1.28 Million Cruise-ship passengers passed by in 2013. Given the sheer size of the market and the growth potential, every Jamaican should be considering how to target the tourism market with creative products. If one cannot see it for themselves, several leading media and travel experts and websites highlight just how great Jamaica is as a travel destination below:

Tripadvisor - 2014 Travellers Choice - rates Negril and Ocho Rios among the Top 10 Destinations in the Caribbean. They also rate Seven Miles Beach in Negril amongst the Top 25 Beaches in the Caribbean.

Huffington Post believes Frenchman's Cove in Jamaica is a Caribbean beach you should go to before you die.

Business Insider's editor Asta Thrastardottir, list the following nine(9) Jamaican destinations among The 24 Best All-Inclusive Resorts in The Caribbean:
Iberostar Grand Hotel Rose Hall, Montego Bay, Jamaica - #1
Half Moon, Montego Bay, Jamaica - #5

Jewel Dunn's River Beach Resort & Spa, Ocho Rios, Jamaica - #6

Couples Negril, Negril, Jamaica - #7
Couples Sans Souci, Ocho Rios, Jamaica - #10Secrets St. James Montego Bay, Montego Bay, Jamaica - #14
Secrets Wild Orchid Montego Bay, Montego Bay, Jamaica - #15
Couples Tower Isle, Ocho Rios, Jamaica - #17
Sunset at the Palms Resort, Negril, Jamaica - #19

Business Insider also notes Jamaica is the best Caribbean destination for music lovers.

To top all these accolades Business Insider's editor Melia Robinson and Andy Kiersz ranks Jamaica as the 9th Best Caribbean Island out of 25.

Theses are just a few of the things that are reported on throughout the web. To add to the above Jamaicans know the food is great, there is the sun, sea, sand, sex, lush country side, world renowned music and sport people, rich heritage and the list of attractions is enormous. People from all over the world can come for tourism of practically any kind.

Given all these great qualities of the Jamaican tourism product its undoubtable that the Tourism Industry is poised to grow. Creative artisans and makers of non-traditional designer fashion are just some of the people that have huge opportunities going forward here. This represent one more opportunity for Jamaicans to capitalize on a devaluing Jamaican dollar.

Those who own tourism related properties are raking in huge profits from the value earned through leveraging Brand Jamaica and its time every Jamaica realize the kingdom they were born in and its potential.

Production for Export - Major Opportunities in an Enormous Market

There are over 7 billion people on earth, over 3 billion internet users, over 2.5 billion smart phone users and over 2 billion social media users. Connecting to an audience that is both interested in your product and have the ability to purchase has never been easier. Colidez can make it happen. Should anyone choose to .....

Import Substitution Opportunities (Coming Soon)

Producing Agricultural products is one of several import substitution opportunities. International Trade Centre data show that Jamaica imported US$10.7 million in sheep meat and US$4.6 million in goat meat in 2012.

Jamaica - The Caribbean's most Valuable Property

Social Drinks of Jamaica

Jamaican's Reping on the World Stage

Translating Publicity to Prosperity

Colidez Sweet Music Jamaica Tech Life

2015 Forecast - Jamaica

2015-01-02T02:56:00.002-05:00

Looking at current Market trends and making some educated guesses below is a list of predictions for the Jamaican economic and political landscape in 2015.

1. Tourism will continue to grow in 2015.

2. On the heels of favorable approval by international bodies in 2014 Foreign investors will begin to take a closer look at Jamaica.

3. The exchange rate will hit US$1:JM$120 in 2015 as the trade balance continues to be unbalanced.

4. Jamaicans after realizing the unbearable pain of a continuously devaluing dollar will start to invest heavily in export oriented activities.

5. Jamaican economy may actually grow by 2% or greater in 2015 thanks to growing tourism, Foreign Direct Investments and local investments in the export oriented sectors.

6. Demand for technical experts will grow and may potentially lead to decreased unemployment.

7. On the heels of a horrible PR year the PNP will call an early elections having a much better 2015 PR year. They may even win.

Best of Jamaica Sports 2014

2014-12-25T13:38:00.003-05:00

Jamaican sports men and women continue to make us all proud Jamaicans.

Thanks for making this another Great Jamaican Year.

Jamaica - The Caribbean's most Valuable Property

Jamaica's Amazing 2013 Moments

Oil prices are crashing - Why is the Jamaican Gas Pump prices still hurting???

2014-12-22T00:39:00.000-05:00

Oil Prices are falling but gasoline prices at the pumps and electricity prices are not following suit in Jamaica. Why? Why is gas and electricity prices in Jamaica still high? The simple explanation is that of the exchange rate. Jamaican to US dollar exchange rate has been on a steady and continuous upward trend as the chart shows in the graphic below. If it were not for the exchange rate the gas and electricity prices might have fallen at relatively the same rate as world oil prices.

Oil price and exchange rate relation to energy cost in Jamaica.

But should anyone wish to try to understand the connection between oil prices and the cost of gas or electricity in Jamaica the information in the chart above may help alongside the explanation below. So, first there is the world oil price. This has to be bought with US dollars which continues to be more expensive on a daily basis thanks to the devaluing Jamaican dollar. The Jamaican dollar value of oil as a result has been increasing exponentially (See the chart highlighted in blue with the black line). This crude oil is then broken down into its various components by the refinery. Some is used for the gas to fuel cars some is used for fuel oil to generate electricity. The result of all this is the cost delivered to you by the gas station or the electricity supplier. The chart below show a comparison of the World oil price and the cost of gas in Jamaica and illustrates how the increase in the exchange rate has spread the correlating cost for both products.

Colidez Sweet Music Jamaica Tech Life

Chart comparing World Oil price to Gas price in Jamaica

While I would love the gas pumps and the electricity providers to reflect the same price reduction as seen in the world oil prices its clear that a devalued Jamaican dollar will keep prices up. Maybe Jamaican should lobby the Government to fix the exchange rate. Or maybe not.

View other articles also from this blog.

Jamaica - The Caribbean's most Valuable Property

Exporting your way out of Poverty - Devaluing Jamaican Dollar makes me Wealthier Daily

Best of Jamaica Sport 2014

Colidez Sweet Music Jamaica Tech Life

Exporting your way out of Poverty - Devaluing Jamaican Dollar makes me Wealthier Daily

2014-12-21T19:41:00.000-05:00

Production for Export - Major Opportunities in an Enormous Market
There are over 7 billion people on earth, over 3 billion internet users, over 2.5 billion smart phone users and over 2 billion social media users. Connecting to an audience that is both interested in your product and have the ability to purchase has never been easier. Colidez can make it happen. Should anyone choose to focus on the US import market alone, the value of consumer goods (excluding capital goods) is over over US$25 billion monthly. It should also be noted that the Jamaican Diaspora in the US ranges between 2 and 4 million people. This grows by approximately 10,000 person annually.

A Distinguished Jamaica
Having explored the potential market size, let's investigate the local characteristics that sets Jamaica apart. With Jamaica's increased ranking in the International Logistics Performance Index (Ranked 70/160 up from 124 in 2012) and the Government's work on an Integrated Logistics Hub, along with Jamaica’s relatively central location in relation to Africa, Europe, North and South America, there is potentially no better location and hence opportunity than investing in the export industry at this time. It's also important to remember that Jamaica's Kingston Harbor is a major International Transshipment point as well as one of the best and largest natural harbors in the world. The sweetest deal in all this is Jamaica has relatively easy access to the US$25 billion monthly market as it is under 600 miles from Miami, Florida, USA. Only a hand full of countries are closer to the US.

Colidez Sweet Music Jamaica Tech Life

Creative products that have inputs from locally produced raw materials have a natural advantage and immense export potential particularly when leveraging Brand Jamaica and represents a huge investment opportunity. Case in point is that of coffee. Jamaican Branded Coffee producers must have smiled all the way to the bank in 2014. Coffee prices on the world market increased approximately 50% and should theses players export this product they would have benefited further from the devaluation of the Jamaican dollar by 7.78%. Cocoa producers could have also benefited from a similar scenario and there are other who can to.

Jamaican food and beverage, designer fashion and craft, as well as furniture all represent interesting avenues worthy of exploration. Value added products also have a significant opportunity on the assumption that imported raw materials can be sourced at very low cost and should not be overlooked. Think of what you can do to export.

There is no doubts that challenges exist but, should well thinking and committed people choose to work together they are not insurmountable. There are many creative ideas that have turned mountains into mole hills. Overcoming the challenges involve producing the required quantities with the required consistency to meet the acceptable standards. Hence this is a call for all to raise their production game. Accessing and marketing to the desired target market has also always been a challenge and now there are cost effective ways to effectively reach your audience. Marketing of Jamaican products to the world is also becoming very easy when one considers the technologies a company like Colidez leverages.

Many individuals have leveraged this opportunity and are reaping major benefits. The market is large and there is more room for more Jamaican players.

Import Substitution Opportunities (Coming Soon)

Producing agricultural products is one of several import substitution opportunities. International Trade Centre data show that Jamaica imported US$10.7 million in sheep meat and US$4.6 million in goat meat in 2012. Meat substitute alone can .......

Tourism Opportunities (Coming Soon)

Reiterating, Brand Jamaica is larger than ever and continues to grow, and this is no small thanks to the continued efforts and exploits of the sports and entertainment talents of Jamaicans and boosted by the diaspora. The Tourism Industry has .....

Jamaica - The Caribbean's most Valuable Property

Social Drinks of Jamaica

Jamaican's Reping on the World Stage

Translating Publicity to Prosperity

Colidez Sweet Music Jamaica Tech Life

Jamaica - The Caribbean's most Valuable Property

2014-12-08T23:10:00.000-05:00

Colidez Sweet Music Jamaica Tech Life

A good year is one way to describe Jamaica's macro economic developments in 2014. Report after report has seen Jamaica's ranking on a global scale inch up, all contributing positively to a consolidated Investment Attractiveness Index of Jamaica.

The Government has performed and the work is bearing fruit through the positive reports and reviews Jamaica has received throughout 2014 from international bodies. Given the recent development, and giving credit to the Government, Jamaicans can once again begin to align their enterprise with the goal of building potential wealth in a competitive global environment. When all this is holistically viewed it becomes hard to disagree that Jamaica is the most valuable property in the Caribbean. Some of the year's achievements and positive indicators are noted in the following:

Fiscal deficit narrowing; down from 6.7% of GDP in 2011 to a balanced budget in this financial year 2014-2015.
Growing primary surplus; the country ahead of the targets.
Improving NIR in 2014 relative to 2013.
Lower imports in a context of a devalued currency making import a little bit more costly.
Tourism arrivals are up by 4%.
Murder rate for 2014 is down relative to the previous year. 16 per cent fall off in murders and other categories of serious crimes so far this year. The Jamaica Constabulary Force’s data show that 846 persons were killed since the start of the year up until the end of October 2014. 166 fewer murders than the 1,012 recorded for the corresponding period 2013.
STATIN reports that 25,700 Jamaicans were employed this year over last year. Unemployment as a result is declining.

The above work of the Government among others has resulted in:

Jamaica continuing to perform positively while passing critical IMF monitored Economic Reform Programme tests.

IMF – Continues support with the Extended Fund Facility.

Jamaica's improved ranking in the World Economic Forum's - Global Competitiveness Index.

World Economic Forum - Global Competitiveness Index - 86/144 up from 94 in 2013.

Jamaica's improved ranking in the World Bank - Ease of Doing Business Report.

World Bank - Ease of Doing Business Report. – 58/189 - Ranked first in the English speaking Caribbean. Up from 85 in 2013.

Ease of starting a business.
Cheaper electricity connection rates.
Establishment of a Credit bureau.

Improved position on the World Bank’s – International Logistic Performance Index.

Ranked 70/160 up from 124 in 2012.

Jamaica has gotten a stable to positive outlook from S&P.

Standards and Poor upgraded Jamaica's economic outlook from stable to positive.

International bond market over-subscription with the lowest interest rates ever.
Yet to be quantified growth in Foreign Direct Investments.

Exchange Rate

The exchange rate according to the Bank of Jamaican, in January 2012 stood at US$1:JM$86.78. Today the exchange rate is US$1:JM$114.22. The Jamaican dollar has devalued by some 30.47%. This is creating valuable opportunities for the export of Jamaican goods and services as they should have become economically more attractive having in a sense gotten relatively cheaper.

Huge Growth Potential

Given the current trend if sustained and built upon annual economic growth could rise steadily from approximately 1% in 2014 to over 4% within the next five years. This is not unforeseeable when one considers that Brand Jamaica is still growing. Sport and entertainment continue to generate huge value for Jamaica from goodwill internationally.

The Jamaican Value

With the devaluation in the dollar over the last two years Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) into Jamaica has become over 25% more valuable. Exports at the same time are at least 25% more competitive. When the idea of coupling a US dollar investment in an export market oriented industry investors could potentially earn very big dividends. Now given all of the above Jamaica is well positioned to take advantage of many investment opportunities some of which one may consider are discussed below.

Super Jamaican Opportunities

Agricultural Opportunities

International Trade Centre data show that Jamaica imported US$10.7 million in sheep meat and US$4.6 million in goat meat in 2012. Data from a Jamaica Gleaner 2014 report noted that chicken back imports in 2013 amounted to JM$2.7 billion or some US$26.8 million. Combined these three meats alone account for a market size of approximately US$42.1 million or JM$4.424 billion. Assuming that the value of imports have remained the same since, supplying the local market with cost effectively locally produced meat local producers have the opportunity to take bites out of this US$42.1 million market. Import substitution represent one major area for potential investment and its value continues grow with the depreciation of the Jamaican dollar. The exchange rate is now US$1:JM$113.22, where might it be in the next five (5) years? There are a host of other crops and livestock that can be produced for the local, tourism and export markets that too have very huge potential.

Tourism Opportunities

Brand Jamaica is larger than ever and continues to grow, no small thanks to the continued efforts and exploits of the sports and entertainment talents of Jamaicans. The Tourism Industry has been a major benefactor and will continue to be so in the foreseeable future. The industry has been seeing meaningful growth over the last 3 years and is projected to compound this growth by at least one (1) percent over the next few years. Jamaica’s True Treasures continues to be unearthed.

Export Manufacturing Opportunities

Creative products that have inputs from locally produced raw materials have immense export potential building on brand Jamaica and represent a huge investment opportunity. Jamaican food and beverage, designer fashion and designer craft and furniture all represent interesting avenues worthy of exploration. Value added products also have an opportunity on the assumption that imported raw materials can be sources at very low cost and should not be overlooked.

Jamaican people skills opportunities

Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) has been taking root within the nation and is beginning to represent a very lucrative area for investment. The myriad of international companies can look towards Jamaica for experience customer services and, IT professionals. With increased ranking in the International Logistics Performance Index and work on an Integrated Logistics Hub along with Jamaica’s central location in relation to Africa, Europe, North and South America there is potentially no better opportunity than investing in the Jamaican people.

Land, Property Development and Real Estate Investment Opportunities

With the residential real estate market being reportedly down in 2014 as new mortgages have declined foreign investors have an opportunity and advantage as they have gained an edge through the increased value they would hold as a result of the foreign exchange dollar holdings and assets. With a projected increase in FDI, demand for Jamaican property will grow, and in the context of all of the above property values are expected to continue rising steadily over the foreseeable future. As an added benefit property values in Jamaica has consistently outpaced inflation and devaluation.

All this currently drive Jamaica’s value and will continue to do so in the foreseeable future.

Social Drinks of Jamaica

Jamaican's Reping on the World Stage

Translating Publicity to Prosperity

Colidez Sweet Music Jamaica Tech Life

PNP failings could be opportunities for the JLP - the opposition never had it better.

2014-11-19T02:27:00.000-05:00

Colidez Sweet Music Jamaica Tech Life

The PNP led Jamaican government has found themselves in an unenviable position of late. Recent polls have been highlighting the dissatisfaction of the Jamaican populace with the country's management under the current set of political leaders.

The party has been found to be lacking transparency and accountability of late as the country grapples with multiple challenges. This has opened up a whole set of opportunities for the opposition to capitalize on, but will they?

With By-Elections to be held in the constituency of Central Westmoreland on December 1, 2014, following the untimely death of former Agriculture and Fisheries Minister Roger Clarke, Jamaicans have an opportunity to vindicate the performance of the incumbent party or unequivocally state their dissatisfaction with the status quo.

The candidates representing the various political parties in the December 1 by-election in the Central Westmoreland constituency handed in their nomination papers at the electoral office in Savanna-la-Mar on Wednesday, November 12, 2014. In the orange corner is the PNP representative, businessman Dwayne Vaz. In the green corner is JLP’s candidate, financial consultant Faye Reid-Jacobs. Last but by no means least; in the uncoloured corner is the independent candidate Ras Astor Black of the Jamaica Alliance Movement. This is a very strange boxing match.

It is interesting to note that in the 2011 General Elections, Roger Clarke then won the seat with 11,558 votes. His opponent at the time was Marlene Malahoo-Forte, she managed 8,484 votes.

This contest is highly expected to be testing ground for the current state of the campaign and election machinery of the major parties. But the issue on everyone's mind is how much will the results support or undermine the performance of the ruling party? Will the poll results be reflected in the actual voting? Were voters to choose based on issues this is some of the matters they could consider.

PNP Successes - JLP's Threats

To the credit of the PNP voters can look at the good list of achievements noted as follows:

• Fiscal deficit narrowing; down from 6.7% of GDP in 2011 to a balanced budget in this financial year.

• Growing primary surplus; the country ahead of the targets.

• Lower imports.

• Tourism arrivals are up by 4%.

• Murder rate for 2014 is down relative to the previous year. 16 per cent fall off in murders and other categories of serious crimes so far this year. The JCF data show that 846 persons were killed since the start of the year up until October 2014. 166 fewer murders than the 1,012 recorded for the corresponding period 2013.

• STATIN reports that 25,700 Jamaicans were employed this year over last year. Unemployment as a result is declining.

The above has resulted in:

• Unquantified growth in Foreign Direct Investments.• International bond market over-subscription with the lowest interest rates ever.

• Jamaica's improved ranking in the World Bank - Global Competitiveness Index.

• Jamaica's improved ranking in the World Economic Forum's - Ease of Doing Business Reprot.

• Jamaica has gotten a stable to positive outlook from S&P.

• Jamaica continues to perform positively while pass IMF monitored Economic Reform Programme tests.

All very positive for the nation.

PNP's Failings - JLP's Opportunities

On the opposite side of the equation:• Exchange rate and inflation. The Jamaican dollar has devalued so much it is a bit surprising that the country is still able to survive given the high dependency and cost of imports.

• The government failed to secure new and more efficient electricity generation capacity and cheaper energy future. As a result the country continues to suffer with high electricity prices.

• The country suffered through a major drought and one has to wonder if adequate measure are being put in place to deal with future occurrences. The risk of fires and frequent water lock off were almost unbearable and the lack of water almost severely impacted the education sector in the new school year. Is the leadership lacking here?

• Complete mismanagement of the Chikungunya outbreak resulting in the death of many people whether directly or indirectly.

• The security forces continue to fail to adequately address crime in the nation and high level of extra judicial police killings. Despite the numbers going down it just seem still too inadequate.

will the opposition be truly able to capitalize on this short comings.

• The invisible and inaudible Prime Minister. Is the leadership and the level of communication to the people of Jamaica from the leadership position acceptable? Question still hove over NHT and Outameni property. At the same time less grants are being made to the poor who cant afford a home.

Come December 1 will Jamaicans be voting for the candidate, the party, or the leader is anyone's guess but I believe despite all the failings of the PNP, the JLP will find it extremely difficult to win what has been considered a safe seat for many years. Given the numbers from the previous election JLP will potentially have to swing over 3,074 voters. As a result one could say that PNP has already won this seat. Given the numbers it would be hard to see a swing large enough to lead JLP to victory.

Will the people of Jamaica however really benefit in the end? If the answer is no wouldn't it be an opportune time for the people of the nation to make a statement and elect for the very first time an independent candidate.

Social Drinks of Jamaica

Stellar Achievements - Jamaica moving Up, Up, Up...

It's Time to Invest in Jamaica

Colidez Sweet Music Jamaica Tech Life

Colidez Blogspot

Social Drinks of Jamaica

2014-10-16T20:08:00.003-05:00

Colidez Sweet Music Jamaica Tech Life

Jamaica is an amazing country. With a population of just under 3 million people it is a bit hard to comprehend the unparalleled reach of a people throughout the world. It's something that has been achieved through the culture in so many ways but did you know that Jamaica produced many big drink brands.

All the following drinks are all products of Jamaica. Which is your favourite?

Now if you are ever a visitor to this beautiful island here are 11 drinks that you must try. They are all social.

11. Calico Jack Rum Punch
Rum punch at it's best.
- over 6,000 Facebook page likes.

10. Rum-Bar Rum

So many things you can do with this one.
- over 9,000 facebook page likes.

9. Bigga
Colourful soft drink brand.
- over 34,000 Facebook page likes.

8. Boom Energy Drink

Di real energy drink. Loved by many. Mix it when with what you like.
- over 35,000 Facebook page likes.

7. Tru-Juice Juices
Jamaica's juice.

- over 37,000 Facebook page likes.

6. Ting
Original and still the best grape fruit soda.

- over 40,000 facebook page likes.

5. Magnum Tonic Wine
A wine like no other.

- over 46,000 facebook page likes.

4. Wray & Nephew White Overproof Rum
The real rum.

- over 49,000 facebook page likes.

3. Wata
Water the Jamaican way.

- over 56,000 facebook page likes.

2. Red Stripe Beer
Jamaica's beer.

- over 95,000 facebook page likes.

1. Appleton Estate Jamaica

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This article was originally published under the Blog - Sweet Music Jamaica.

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Stellar Achievements - Jamaica moving Up, Up, Up...

2014-10-16T15:00:00.003-05:00

The People's National Party held their 76th Annual Conference over the weekend of September 20-21, 2014 and the following was noted among the achievements:

On the macro-economic front. We are experiencing:
• The narrowing of fiscal deficit; down from 6.7% of GDP in 2011 to a balanced budget in this financial year.
• There is a growing primary surplus; we are comfortably ahead of the targets.
• We are importing less
• Tourism arrivals are up by 4%.
• International investors are coming to Jamaica because they are confident in our stewardship and in the new Jamaica that is emerging, and
• Our recent re-entry into the international bond market was oversubscribed yielding over US$800M. Even more importantly, we got it at the lowest interest rates ever.
• More Jamaicans are in jobs than two years ago; STATIN has reported that 25,700 Jamaicans were employed this year over last year. Unemployment as a result is declining; and is now 13.6% down for 16.3% last year April.

To the aforementioned I say great and more power to the people. The unfortunate truth here however is that the single real positive item that affects the man in the streets directly is the employment statistic.

Jamaicans don't consume the fiscal deficit nor do they consume the primary surplus on a daily basis, but what it means is that the quality services delivered to Jamaicans have decreased. If the PNP government were honest it would also note that roads on average have deteriorated and the government not spending to fix them and as a result the average Jamaican spends more to maintain their vehicle.

We are importing less, why? Because we can't afford it.

Exchange Rate

The exchange rate according to the Bank of Jamaican, in January 2012 stood at US$1:JM$86.78. Today the exchange rate is US$1:JM$112.68. The Jamaican dollar has devalued by some 29.8% making some Jamaican's poorer if their salaries have not increased over the last 2-3 years. Take note Civil Servants who have had a wage freeze.

Fuel Cost and Transport

As a second reference 87 Octane gasoline price, according to Petrojam, as of January 5, 2012 was $95.99 per litre. As of September 18, 2014 the cost of the gas was $120.40 per litre. This represents a 25.4% increase in the cost of fuel. Bus fare for the JUTC customers move from $80 in January 2012 to $120 in September 2014. A whopping 50% increase in the cost of public transportation in the Corporate Area.

Electricity Cost

As a gauge for the cost of electricity according to the Jamaica Public Service, the Fuel and IPP Charge rate in January 2012 was $21.12. Fast forward to September 2014 the Fuel and IPP Charge rate was $25.795, this representing a 22.1% increase in the fuel cost of electricity alone. The average cost of electricity for residential clients in 2011 was approximately $34.20 per kilo watt hour. Please note that this cost included GCT at the time. The government removed GCT on residential clients bills in 2012. The average cost of electricity to residential clients in 2014 is now approximately $41.73. An increase of 22%.

These things impact the basic cost of living for the average Jamaican. So without a doubt Jamaicans will import less as so much of Jamaicans incomes are eroded due to inflation. Don't stop the progress. The progress of the higher cost of living.

National Debt

While it is admirable in all fairness where as the country has gotten an additional US$800M from the floating of a bond it must be noted that the national debt has crown to over JM$2 trillion. Each Jamaican ( man, woman, child and unborn baby) now has a heavier debt burden of over $740,000 each. This is compared to an overwhelming burden of over $480,000.00 per person a few years ago.

So not only has inflation torn into the countries growth and made individuals relatively less wealthy the debt to be born by every Jamaican has grown meaningfully.

Will Jamaica therefore ever have the funds required to adequately support the true development of the country as meaningful chunks of the budget will be dedicated to servicing the nations debt.'

So to all the stellar achievements I see being promoted I say great keep it up.

6 Scary facts about Ebola

2014-10-15T03:28:00.000-05:00

Colidez Sweet Music Jamaica Tech Life

Ebola is taking the world by storm similar to the rate at which humans became zombies in the 2013 horror thriller World War Z. The rate of spread while in theory is relatively low given the number of individuals who have now contracted the disease it can easily blow out of proportion if not adequately contained in a timely manner. Given this it has become a very scary disease the world over in recent weeks.

1. Easily transmittable : Close contact or body fluids can lead to transmission.

2. Reproduction rate: 1.5 - 2. Each newly infect person can infect another 1.5-2 persons within the time frame of contracting the disease and dying.

3. Serial interval: 9-15 days. Within a few days the disease would have likely been transmitted to someone new.

4. No prevention or treatment pill or panacea: There is no approved vaccine or drug for the prevention or treatment of Ebola. There exist natural remedies for the treatment but their use has not been well documented.

5. Progression course: The time between exposure and contracting the disease and death can be as short as 9 days.

6. Case Fatality Rate (CFR): 50-90%. This is one of the deadliest disease known to man.

This disease can wreck havoc in a very short period of time. It is therefore imperative that everyone is aware and prepared as much as as is reasonably possible. It is also of critical importance that all countries ensure that they are fully prepared for any likelyhood of the disease appearing on their shores. African nation are central to this preparation as it will most easily spread within the continent.

Ebola is now a World Crisis

Colidez Sweet Music Jamaica Tech Life

Ebola is now a World Crisis

2014-10-11T17:01:00.000-05:00

Colidez Sweet Music Jamaica Tech Life

In a report by the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) release in late September 2014 it was projected that the worst case scenario for the current Ebola epidemic is that by January 20, 2015 there could be approximately 550,000 reported (1.4 million when corrected for underreporting) cases of Ebola in Western Africa.

The data below is based on the World Health Organization (WHO) report on October 10, 2014.

Countries: 7

Major: Guinea; Liberia; Sierra Leone.

Minor: Nigeria ; Senegal; Spain; United States

Susceptible: Approximately 22.1 million from the major outbreak countries.

Exposed (Serial interval : 9-15 days.)

Major - over 21,760

Minor - unavailable.

Registered cases as of October 10 ,2014.

Reproduction rate: 1.5 - 2

Infectious:

Major - 4,352

Minor - 14

Reported infectious cases may double by the end of October 2014.

Removed

Death rate: 70%

Deaths:

Major - 4,352

Minor - 9

Total reported cases

Major - 8,376

Minor - 23

Disease Export - 2

Ebola Virus

With the current efforts on the ground the rate will probably slow but almost insignificantly. At this stage over 750 additional doctors and over 3,000 nurses are needed for it to be adequately contained. This needs the world's attention and fast, very fast or it may soon become a problem in every country's backyard.

Fighting Chikungunya

Colidez Sweet Music Jamaica Tech Life

Taking the fight to Chikungunya - A few things everyone should consider

2014-09-18T02:05:00.000-05:00

Colidez Sweet Music Jamaica Tech Life

At the current rate of spread everyone including my late Grandmother will be catching Chikungunya before Christmas. The unbelievable statistics of note is that the first case of the virus in Jamaica was only reported on July 17, 2014. In only two (2) months without official data but careful observations it would seem that one in every three hundred Jamaicans between St. Thomas and St. Catherine has what appears to be symptoms of Chikungunya. This would therefore suggest that as much as 5,000 Jamaicans could have, by now, been infected with the virus. This also suggest that as much as 100,000 persons could potentially contract the virus by the end of October and theoretically the entire island by Christmas.

Given this, here is the reality every Jamaican must face. Everyone is at high risk of contracting the Chikungunya virus and more so as the Government really does not have the resources to adequately contain the spread. It may be slowed but the reality is that it is already so widely dispersed that it will be very hard to contain at this stage with the limited resources.

Everyone should therefore brace themselves as the probability of contracting the virus is increasing daily. Given the almost inevitable scenario the following paragraphs serves as guide to help you delay the possibility, identify the illness as best as possible, and encourage individuals to boost their health in anticipation of the virus in order to mitigate the ill effects and aid in recovery.

The Chikungunya virus is transmitted by the Aedes aegypti mosquito. Public enemy number 1 - seek and destroy them.

Aedes aegypti mosquito

Symptoms
According to the World Health Organization fact sheet on Chikungunya symptoms include fever, severe headaches, severe pain in the joints, muscle pains, nausea and vomiting, fatigue and a rash.

Prevention
Seek and remove mosquito breeding sites.
Pour bleach in water filled areas
Fog heavily infested mosquito breeding areas.
Utilize Insect spray around possible breeding areas.

Seek to acquire and utilize when you can the following items:

Mosquito destroyer
Mosquito repellent. Repellents should contain DEET (N, N-diethyl-3-methylbenzamide), IR3535 (3-[N-acetyl-N-butyl]-aminopropionic acid ethyl ester) or icaridin (1-piperidinecarboxylic acid, 2-(2-hydroxyethyl)-1-methylpropylester).
Mosquito swatters and zappers

Also seek to wear light colour clothing that covers as much of the body as possible.

Health Preparation
Start consuming more vitamins in particular vitamin C to boost your immune system.
Exercise as best as possible without stressing the body weakening the immune system.
Get adequate rest.

Treatment
There is no specific antiviral drug treatment for Chikungunya. Additionally there is no commercial chikungunya vaccine.

Treatment is directed primarily at relieving the symptoms, including the joint pain using anti-pyretics, optimal analgesics and fluids.

Chicken Soup

Consume as much chicken and vegetable soup as possible it provides vitamins and minerals necessary to boost the immune system, fluids the body may need and contributed to the energy requirements of the body at the time. Also consume daily multivitamins; vitamin C drink mixes to boost my immune system; and drink mix for the aching/joint pain/arthritis relief where available.

If everyone joins the fight the probability of contacting the virus can be reduced significantly.

Colidez Sweet Music Jamaica Tech Life

Police at war with Jamaicans - Curious cases of police killings in Jamaica

2014-09-14T17:10:00.001-05:00

Colidez Sweet Music Jamaica Tech Life

Let me first say that this article is not about taking a position in defense of criminals or the defense of the unlawful police actions. In light of a recent killing of two young men in Garveymeade, Portmore, St. Catherine I decided to take it up on myself to do a little investigation into the incidences of police killings in Jamaica.

I however believe that from the courts of public opinion not all these individuals killed are innocent but that doesn't justify extra judicial killings. I am also of the belief that the Jamaican police clearly carry out extrajudicial killings and in so doing often kill very innocent people. The are also cases where police kill individuals over issues unrelated to criminal activities and use the cover of crime to justify the killings. Those sort of killings must however stop.

It was noted in a speaking engagement to the Rotary Club of Downtown Kingston at the Hotel Four Seasons, Assistant Commissioner of the Independent Commission of Investigations, Mr. Hamish Campbell, stated that since the start of the year, 96 persons have been killed by the Police up until September 9, 2014.

That seems top represent a meaningful reduction albeit still too high relative to so many other countries.

Now to state some data:

STATIN - Census 2011 states Jamaica has population: 2,697,983.

Non-civilian population (Police and military force) approximately: 13,983

Approximated civilian population: 2,684,000

Now here are some interesting statistic according to data compiled from the Independent Commission of Investigations:

1,963 persons were killed by the police between July 1999 and December 2009
272 persons were killed by the police in 2007 - This represent the highest in a single year.
Over 220 persons were killed by the police in 2010 - year of the Tivoli Gardens incursion
219 persons were killed by the police in 2012
254 persons were killed by the police in 2013
96 persons were killed by the police up to September 9 , 2014

This totals to 569 person in just under 3 years.

The question I ask in response to all these killing; is this justified? We know that the nation is populated with illegal guns and unfortunately there is an unfortunate criminal subculture but seriously how can 569 people be so eager to engage the police in a shoot out when it would seem given the data that it will result in certain death? I guess the next reasonable question is whether there is a large population of suicidal Jamaican who have discover that its easier to die by engaging the police.

Now I hope to further analyze this in the future but making some educated assumptions it is fair to say that approximately 80% of these individuals are males within the age group of 20-35. That would mean that approximately 455 Jamaican men between the ages 20 and 35 years old would have been killed by police officers within the last 3 years.

This cohort accounts for approximately 309,000 Jamaicans. This is significant because when the analysis is done it should show that close to 1 in every 1,309 Jamaican males between 20 and 35 years old will be killed by the police each year. Given this I think I may need to consider seeking political asylum overseas in fear of being killed by the police. The risk would also be greater depending on the community in which they came from. Had I been born in an inner-city community I could have been easily another statistic. This may seem like an insignificant number but I cannot readily identify a country that has a track record that is anything like this or a police force that is so aggressive in dealing with its male civilian population. It would be interesting to find out if a study on any such thing has ever been done.

In any case it would seem given this very simple analysis that there is an unspoken war raging between young Jamaican males and the police and it would be reasonable if the newly appointed commissioner of police Dr. Carl Williams sought to address this issues as a matter of urgency.

The unfortunate truth though is that the security system and by extension the socioeconomic system fails Jamaicans and given the available data it seems to be a trend that will continue.

The murder rate also continues to trend upwards and one can conclude Its is quiet evident to me that the security forces are at war.

The JUTC and a Protest - Wrong Protest

2014-08-22T10:14:00.001-05:00

Colidez Sweet Music Jamaica Tech Life

As of August 24, 2014 the Jamaica Urban Transport Corporation (JUTC) bus fares will be increased in Jamaica. This comes on the heals of an increase as recently as 2013. Obviously no one welcomes this. The Oppositions is even planning a protest. Before I join them there are a few thing I though I clarify for myself. What is more important to me is whether commuters want a quality bus system or not and are they willing to pay for it? Is the Government still mismanaging the JUTC? Can a bus operate efficiently, pay for fuel, tyres, maintenance and servicing as well as pay the driver and all support personnel and management with revenues of less than a $1 million per month?

Let's examine some facts. The JUTC serves some 150,000 commuters daily. In 2013, 240 buses brought in revenues of $240 million per month. Each bus was therefore making approximately $1,000,000 per month and interestingly it was not profitable. Today there are 400 buses bringing in revenues of $366 million per month. Each bus is therefore now making approximately $915,000 per month and this in a context of inflation. The real value of the revenues is therefore even less. It could be argued that for buses to operate efficiently revenues of $1,200,000.00 is required per bus.

Almost the entire operation of the JUTC is dependent on imported capital items and raw materials. All of which are affected by inflation. Fuel cost have gone up 37%; tyres cost up 68%; toll cost up 73%; maintenance and repair cost up 184%. The Exchange Rate on January 1, 2012 opened at US$1:JM$86.75. Fast forward to August 21, 2014, the closing rate US$1:JM$112.79. A difference of JM$26.04, this represents a devaluationof 30.02% over the last two years and 8 months. Jamaica does not manufacture buses, they are imported; daily operating fuel is imported; tyres are imported. All repair and maintenance materials are imported. Toll charges which are tied to the exchange rate have also gone up and has resulted in higher cost to the JUTC. At the very least all this should cost the JUTC 30.02% more as a result of the dollars devaluation. Everything is imported and as a result more expensive and therefore operations cost will continue to rise steadily. Someone has to pay. An increase is inevitable and if not now when?

This trend is expected to continue but is exacerbated by the fact that the JUTC acquired over 124 new buses within the last year and are expected to get more. The bus fleet and therefore seating capacity increased by 66% where as ridership has increased by only 28% to 5.1 million monthly. It would be inevitable that the JUTC loses money if the demand is not there. The JUTC is losing as much as $250 million monthly. This has been coming down to $162 million in July. This is where I believe part of the real problem lies. This suggest that there is an over capacity of buses and this could be attributed to possible poor decision making on the part of the management team. Was there a proper analysis of the demand for the service and hence were more buses justified?

While highlighted in this one company on this particular occasion, the general mismanagement is what I believe people should be more focused on. If there should be a protest it should be against gross national mismanagement that exist throughout most of Government and contributes to the wider problem of under productivity of the nation leading to poverty and other social problems. The opposition would do well targeting the lack of jobs which are necessary to afford the buses and all other injustice, in a more meaningful manner instead of appearing to care for the poor in this case 150,000 of the over 2,000,000 Jamaican's that suffer injustice daily.

Jamaican will pay and continue to pay for all and sundry piece of mismanagement whether directly as in the case of the JUTC or indirectly through increased taxes. Remember the proposed Bank Withdrawal Tax. Should the wider Jamaica subsides the JUTC from taxes? I don't think so. The fares will go up and probably should.

Colidez Sweet Music Jamaica Tech Life

Jamaica's Big Energy Gamble - Comes with Huge Risks

2014-04-30T12:39:00.000-05:00

ColideZ Sweet Music Jamaica Tech Life

Will Jamaica ever get cheaper electricity? That remains to be proven but hopefully so. Its April 30, 2014 and Jamaica is still grappling with the prospects of cheaper electricity cost resulting from the proposed Natural Gas fired turbine electricity generation plant courtesy of Energy World International (EWI).

When the Minster of Energy sought to personally facilitate Energy World International he showed the world that he had the biggest balls in the land of the big balls. He took a gamble on a company with huge risks. Failure to implement the new generation facility is a huge risk to the country and the entire implementation process comes with significant risk itself. A bit of "damned if you do, damned if you don't". In this case however the scales are definitely tipped more heavily to the damnation of the country if nothing is done.

Now at this juncture a number of things have already taken place:

EWI's application was made late to the Minister and not directly to Office of Utilities Regulation.
Office of Utilities Regulation (OUR) canceled US-based consortium Azurest Cambridge’s preferred bidder status for failure to meet its 15-day deadline to produce a bid bond security of one per cent of its proposed US$690-million investment in the energy facility, which was required by midnight October 3.
EWI selected as the new preferred bidder on October 4, 2013. EWI delivered the one per cent bid bond. That one percent required was US$7.37 million. Well done.
Power Purchase Agreement with the Jamaica Public Service Company was signed, dated and finalized on December 2, 2013.
Ministry of Science, Technology, Energy and Mining issued licence to EWI on April 4, 2014 for the generation and supply of electricity to the Jamaica Public Service Company (JPS).
EWI Deposits US$36.85 M with their bankers HSBC in Hong Kong. This represents the five per cent Performance Bond which was due Friday, April 25, 2014. The banks has undertaken to process and issue the bond as soon as possible while adhering to all their internal compliance and regulatory processes that introduce timelines that cannot be circumvented.

For Jamaica to achieve a lower electricity cost, several hurdles remain yet to be crossed. Some of the major risks lying ahead are discussed in brief below.

Risk 1 - Fuel supply plan and agreement
Gas production is ramping up in the United States and exports are growing. As a result, it is plausible that EWI will get an agreement for supply. This is however coming on the heels of lack of supplies to Jamaica only a few years ago when Trinidad would not supply and Venezuela was also unable to supply. Shale oil and fracking for gas was only just starting to grow. Come 2016-18 gas supplies in the region should be reasonably higher. The other part of the equation here is the supply chain which involves the specialized ships to transport the gas. The infrastructure here could be lacking.

Risk 2 - Financing the US$787 million project
The second major hurdle that EWI will have to cross is that of financing. Given the current reputation of EWI and its relationship to Energy World Corporation it may be hard pressed to get the financing of US$737 million needed to build the 381 Mega Watt Natural Gas Power Plant. By right, this should not be a truly difficult hurdle as an investment in a plant like this in a market like this should almost guarantee that investors will get the proper return on their investment. One unfortunate turn of events however, is the decision by the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) to not participate as a potential financier of the project on the grounds that the bidding process and the ultimate selection of EWI were undertaken in a manner which is inconsistent with the IDB internal procedures and policies.

Risk 3 - Facility construction and implementation
Again EWI's track record here is not spectacular. Evidence of the completion of meaningful projects is limited. Additionally in the world of engineering and construction it is known that many factors can impact the on-time and under budget goals of any project. if only there were meaningful, compelling and credible evidence that EWI is more than capable to deliver on this project in the specified time frame. An this posses yet another huge risk to the deliver of cheaper electricity to the Jamaican people.

So only time will tell but in the interim consider solar.

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Why pay JM$40-50 per KWh which increases annually when you can pay JM$12 per KWh fixed for the 20 year life of the system. This is the lowest cost energy to the consumer.

ColideZ

Jamaican's Reping on the World Stage: January - March 2014

2014-04-28T12:52:00.000-05:00

ColideZ Sweet Music Jamaica Tech Life

Last year Jamaicans represented the country tremendously, this year they picked up from where they left off. In recognition of the Jamaicans who represent us in a big way on the international landscape, I would like to say a big thank you! It is important for Jamaica to recognize the monumental reach of Jamaicans throughout the world and the impact, we as a people can have.

This is important because Jamaica gains meaningful value from all this goodwill parading the nation's culture on a global scale and on an almost daily basis. This represents a value that has the potential to change the course of the nations socio-economic future and build the lives of each and every contributor. In essence this represent a culture that is worth investing in daily. Here are a few Jamaicans who display our triumphs and our character.

Jamaican Track and Field Athletes - 2014 IAAF World Indoor Championships Sopot, Poland.

Sopot, Poland the Track and Field team won one(1) - Gold, two(2) - Silver and two(2) - Bronze medals. Starts included Shelly-Ann Fraser-Brown, Kaliese Spencer, Kimberly Williams, and the 4x400m Women and Mens team. Demonstrating Jamaica's winning spirit.

Jamaican "Sunshine Girls" Netball Team - United Kingdom

Sunshine Girls representing in the United Kingdom for a Tri-nation series. While the Girls didn't win a match at the tri-series they continue to demonstrate the nation's pride.

Jamaican "Cool" Bobsled Team - Sochi 2014 Winter Olyimpics, Russia

The team placed an understandably 29th the team represented Jamaica proudly. Boldly pursuing dreams unheard off. In doing so they did had to deal with many challenges which include lost luggage and lack of funding yet the team manage to demonstrate the nations bodaciousness.

Raheem Sterling - Liverpool, England

This Liverpool FC midfield player is Jamaican born, and sports the number 31 jersey has scored 3 goals for his club in this period. Well done. He highlighted the Jamaican proven ability to excel and contribute to another nation's development.

Reggae Boys - St. Michael, Barbados and Gros Islet, St. Lucia

Resilient spirit from the failed World Cup bid. Jamaica won matches against St. Lucia and Barbados.

Tessanne Chin - Whitehouse, United States

Tessanne continues to woo the world with her melodic voice, displaying Jamaica's rich tradition and culture of music.

Chris Gayle; Marlon Samuels; Andre Russell; Sheldon Cottrell; Krishmar Santokie - West Indies T20 Cricket Team - T20 Cricket World Cup, Bangladesh

The Jamaicans here contributed to the West Indies reaching the Semi-finals of the ICC T20 World Cup. A display of Jamaica's natural team and leadership spirit.

This by no mean an exhausted list but just the more prominent one we all easily recognize.

Notable Mentions

2014 ISSA Boys and Girls Champs
Congratulations to the Edwin Allen High School for winning the female's section of the champs and Calabar High the male's. While the event did not appear on the world stage from another country it continues to make the world headlines as an internationally watched event. This demonstrates Jamaica's continues growth and desire to strive for continued success.

Adidja "Vybz Kartel" Palmer
While not making the headlines for the right reason Vybz Karter is an international personallity who made headlines around the world. In his glory days, he was an entertainer of the highest degree and for that he brought meaningful attention to Jamaica.

I like this, Jamaicans keep representing.

ColideZ

Jamaicans are misguided and totally miss the point on the issue of taxes

2014-04-26T04:09:00.000-05:00

ColideZ Sweet Music Jamaica Tech Life

At the time of writing this article the Jamaican dollar exchange rate with the US$ was US$1 : JM$110.07 and the nation was consumed by the newest nine day wonder.

A new tax on bank withdrawals has recently been announced and with much fanfare and hullabaloo everyone excluding Vybz Kartel is up in arms about it. The truth however is that most Jamaicans have jumped onto a miss guided band wagon and few seems to understand the real economic issues as it relates to the nation's budget.

Everyone seems to have lost focus of very crucial issues. One of the most notable ones and one thing focus must be placed on is that of the exchange rate and its impact on the nation's finances.

Let me start by putting a few things into context.

Jamaica's national debt stands at over JM$1,600,000,000,000.00. (That's a lot of zeros).
This would mean that every Jamaican (including the just born child) has a debt burden of over JM$500,000.00 whether they like it or not. If the burden is borne buy the labour force (ages 20-65) of the country that would mean each working class Jamaican has a debt burden of approximately JM$1,327,140.00.
Now the Government is obligated to pay back all national debts as it is written in the constitution.

Now let us understand a few other things. Jamaicans import the lavish cars (while good for show boating and I would love to have one myself) is a drain on the foreign exchange reserves. Jamaicans also import the fuel and parts to maintain these cars. Jamaicans also import high end phones and the country also imports the flour to make bread and the beef in patties (and by extension the flour used in the patty dough). Jamaica also imports the oil used for electricity generation.

So what does this debt context have to do with the exchange rate?

Over 30% of the nations debt grows on a daily basis by the sheer fact that the Jamaican dollar devalues daily. The result of this is that each and every Jamaican will be more indebted next year this time around, only to be struck with an unavoidable new wave of taxes (whichever way the form of the tax will take) unless the Government cuts recurring expenditure drastically. As the nation's debts grow so will the need for Government revenues to pay the debt.

If there is one thing I can bet my bottom dollar on, it is the exchange rate and by extension the national debt are firmly set in motion to continue rising (I would however love to be proven wrong). As a result Jamaicans can bet their bottom dollar on new taxes and more taxes in the future whatever the form. So stop making much ado about nothing or at least stop complaining when you are creating the problem for yourself.

Until the nation realises that imports must be reduced and exports must be increased all Jamaicans should shut up and happily pay taxes or gladly embrace a lower quality of life as the government will be unable to afford to provide quality services to the people as there will be fewer resources to satisfy the nations needs. Now is the time for Jamaicans to focus on exports.

Now given this, it would be more productive for every Jamaican to take to the airwaves and demand that the Government's Cabinet be reduced in size, the politicians take a pay cut, the politicians pay back the country for their luxury cars and take the public transportation system, and the Minister of Flying Affairs seek to travel less as the people of the country have been asked to pay more while we continue to suffer under the clear miss management of the country. Jamaicans must also demand a more productive and efficient government.

Let us be driven to correct the trade imbalances, after all Jamaica has a lot to offer. Let us not complain about the tax but complain about the service and fight for a better quality service by the nation's leaders.

Oh and who ever still wishes to donate some US dollars to my account you are most welcome.

www.colidez.com

Connecting the Dots to Jamaica's High Energy Cost

2014-04-07T15:41:00.002-05:00

ColideZ Sweet Music Jamaica Tech Life

Its no secret Jamaica has a high energy cost and in particular electricity cost. Have you ever wondered why? Everyone thinks that the government and the Jamaica Public Service Company (JPSCo.) have been ripping Jamaicans off. Whether or not that is so I will not comment but here are a few charts to shed some light on energy and electricity issues that concern the Jamaican people daily.

Trends of the exchange rate and world oil prices can only mean high fuel cost for electricity generation. Relatively speaking the resulting trend for the cost of a barrel of oil in Jamaican dollars could look like the chart below.

Quick Notes:

Jamaica consumed 20,305,842 barrels of oil in 2012
Valued at US$2,213,473,615.00 or JM$196,977,016,998.85
Average cost per barrel of oil - US$109.01 or JM$9,700.80
Average exchange rate for 2012 US$1: JM$88.99

Source: Ministry of Science, Technology, Energy and Mining – 2013 - Energy Economics and Planning Unit, Energy Division

It is important to note that almost all of Jamaica's imported fuel is utilized in two major sectors: Transportation and Electricity Generation as noted in the chart below.

Given the all the data noted so far it can be concluded that JPSCo spent US$664,042,084.5 or JM$59,093,105,100.00 on oil purchases to fuel the nations electricity generation. With over 95% of the nations electricity needs being satisfied by imported fuel according to 2010 data. It is therefore obvious that electricity cost are highly driven by imported fuel cost.

Between 2010 and 2014 however, approximately 1 MW of solar, approximately 21 MW of wind and 6.3 MW of hydro renewable energy capacity has been added to the electricity grid. This represents a total of 28.3 MW of additional renewable energy capacity. This would bring total generation capacity to approximately 868.2 MW. This would also push renewable energy contribution to 8% of total electricity generated. Fossil fuel based electricity would therefore account for 92% of installed capacity. Add the fact that JPSCo has a system loss of approximately 25%. The Fuel and IPP Charges are therefore inevitably driven by factors mostly external to the nation's control.

Having established the obvious external trends such as ever higher oil prices and ever higher exchange rates one can couple this to local factors such as high demand for electricity and an infrastructure that is predominantly fueled by fossil fuels and Jamaicans should be able to conclude the factors behind high electricity rates. As a result Jamaicans can expect to pay more monthly for the foreseeable future.

Now given this projection should you desire to save money as result of energy cost or a more affordable energy bill feel free to look me up.

Recommended :
Case for MW Solar

High Energy Cost Factors

ColideZ

Feel free to view:
Sweet Music Jamaica

Murder rate and Foreign Exchange Rate - Jamaica's Correlated Trends

2014-04-07T11:22:00.000-05:00

ColideZ Sweet Music Jamaica Tech Life

For year I have been asking the question of whether or not the murder rate in Jamaica was correlated to the exchange rate? I still don't have a clear answer answer to that question but at least now I have charts that graphically highlights the data and the possibility.

This chart highlights the simple fact that everyone was aware of but has never really seen, Jamaica murder figures have been trending up for the last forty years. The trend seems to be changing however over the last four years from an upward trend to a more range bound trend. Good.

The exchange rate with the benchmark US dollar has experienced a similar upward trend over the last forty years with Jamaica. But now I have these chart what does it mean? Is crime driving higher exchange rates or is it oil prices?

This chart illustrates something not known by every Jamaican. The upward trend of murder figures has been leading the US dollar exchange rate. The more important issue however is whether or not they are actually correlated? How will 2014's data turn out?

While it seems that murders lead exchange rate its not yet clear is murders is a leading factor driving exchange rate higher.

From a different perspective these data sets can be used to identify investment opportunities. Investments in locally sourced and produced goods and services for the tourism and export market in the 70's and 80's would have yielded significant dividends over the last 20 years and especially so in times when local inflation was lower than the dollar devaluation rate. Those who foresaw the continuous rise in crime would have done well had they invested in security services and products. Demand for these good and services soared through the roof.

The unfortunate conclusion in all of this however is that the socio-economic status of the average Jamaican would not have improved as a result of these statistics and it is now important that people now look to data like this to be more informed and utilize it to inspire creative solutions that will have meaningful impacts.

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ColideZ Sweet Music Jamaica Tech Life

Foreign Exchange Earning Focus

2014-03-24T12:51:00.001-05:00

ColideZ Sweet Music Jamaica Tech Life

If it wasn't clearer before its now clear as day, Jamaicans must now look to earning foreign exchange in an effort to survive in a very challenging economic environment.

The Jamaican dollar relative to the US Dollar at the time of writing the article was US$1:JM$109.49. The revelation while not new to most has been recently underscored by the fact that exchange rate is bearing down on yet another key psychological level.

Using data compiled from the bank of Jamaica's website, had I been earning US$1,000.00 per month as of January 1, 2012 I would have been getting JM$86,750.00 as my monthly salary. Today assuming I had not gotten an increase in salary I would have been earning JM$109,490.00 today (Friday, March 21, 2014).

Another way to look at this is that had I been earning JM$86,750.00 per month back January 1, 2012 and my salary had not increased, what I could afford to buy now would be only what JM$73,082.15 could get me back then. Hence, its as if I am only being paid JM$73,082.15 now representing an income devaluation of approximately 15.76%. Income devaluations was calculated based on the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from January 2012 to February 2014 from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN Jamaica). Now considering the Jamaican dollar has devalued 26.21% over the same period and the Fuel and IPP component of the Jamaica Public Service electricity bills has experience an inflation of 36.5% which is closely correlated to fuel and gas prices at the pump it's not hard to imagine that my income now having not changed since January 2012 could actually only be worth JM$55,086.25.

This highlights a very significant issue every Jamaican can confront. It's only entirely true for those who have not gotten that salary increase over the last two year to keep pace with the devaluation of the dollar and local inflation.

Quick Look at A Few Implications

Exchange Rate, Earnings & Spending Power: So it should be clear the obvious major implication of the aforementioned information is income devaluation. While there are real pros for this an important highlight of this is the spending power which decreases considering collectively as a nation all real incomes would have either devalued or only very slightly ticked up. This could result in reduced incomes for the government thought taxes as there is less spending and this in turn result in less spending on its part to provide services to the nation. The vicious negative socio-economic cycle will continue.

Exchange Rate & Savings: Smartly many young Jamaicans continue to leave the country in droves as savings also experience devaluation as few savings accounts offer interest rates that compensate for local inflation rate. this makes me wonder if Jamaica was designed and is being operated as a talent exporter.

Exchange Rate & National Indebtedness: The country's debt continues to climb as noted in the article "Debt Exchange Rate and Growth" written by Dr. Andre Haughton and published in the Jamaica Gleaner on March 5, 2014. As the exchange rate climbs so does the national debt denominated in US dollars. This leads to indebtedness of the people. The people have to pay back the debt. The people have to suffer the poor infrastructure conditions and services delivered by government and more debt will only results in less capabilities of the

If combined all this is not enough to drive a focus on Foreign Exchange Earnings I am not sure what is.

ColideZ Sweet Music Jamaica Tech Life

5 Simple Sensible Observations for Financial Health

2014-03-21T10:54:00.003-05:00

ColideZ Sweet Music Jamaica Tech Life

Mark Twain once wrote "A man who carries a cat by the tail learns something he can learn in no other way".

People often say experience is the best teacher and as a result I learn from the experiences of other people, good and bad. It may also be sensible for people to also learn from my own experiences. Given this as it relates to financial success many people often refer to one of the richest men of the twenty first century for guidance as to how they are to navigate the world to achieve significant wealth. But as an average person my experience has show me financial health is just as good.

Here are five simple things life has taught me about financial health.

Delay loans as long as possible - Cash is King
Unless critical, delay loans as long as possible and save as aggressively as possible towards your goals. Paying for expensive goods in cash can save you tonnes of money over the long run. forget what financial experts say about the cost value of money over time. For example if a piece of furniture cost $100,000.00 if you have the cash and choice to buy similar or the same product elsewhere most likely than not you may get as much as a 25% discount on the product. Should you borrow or hire purchase the item depending on economic environment its not impossible to end up paying 100% more for the same good over a period of time. This argument applies to all types of goods.

Borrow the least amount possible
Unless an item appreciates at a faster rate than the rate of inflation and the required profit margin of a leaning institution its make little sense to borrow to finance a purchase in the hope that over the long run managing small payment equate to the same value. So where you can limit the amount you borrow to finance a purchase especially for an item such as a vehicle do so. Your cash most likely won't get the interest required to consistently beat inflation and product value is unlikely to appreciate fast enough either to beat loan interest rates.

Aim for the smallest loan interest rate
There are circumstances where its inevitable that you will have to borrow and as a result its critical you aim to get the best deal. One way to find such deals is to speak with all possible lending institutions and get from them their rates. While this is possible its not always feasible. One interesting website I once came across for Jamaicans that compares loan options and interest rates is called RateBee. If you must aim for the lowest rate. A 2% difference in interest rate over the long run can be significant.

Aim to repay loans in the shortest possible time
The simplicity of this observation doesn't need too much elaboration. The sooner you are out of debt the better. The goal here is financial health and while shorter loans tend to attract higher interest rate the sooner you are free of a debt the less burdened you will feel once it is paid. Once it is paid that frees you to save or allows you to have added disposable income.

Work on a second income
One final observation to aiding with achieving financial health arise from an environment where the economy becomes challenging. Balancing personal income and expense can get tougher year after year given rising cost of living and a pay check that may not be rising as quickly. So what the solution? Be more productive. Consider finding a second job to increase income to give you that cash king advantage.

These are my indispensable experience for my financial health it can be yours too.

Translate publicity to prosperity.

Exchange Rate racing away.

ColideZ Sweet Music Jamaica Tech Life

The Future of Goat Islands Jamaica

2014-03-02T23:58:00.001-05:00

ColideZ Sweet Music Jamaica Tech Life

The Goat Islands consist of two cays off the south eastern coast of Jamaica, which is home to animals and marine life. The future of this island is a topic that has been on everyone's tongue for the past few months. Now I believe we all would like to see development of the country's resources, but just how should this development take place?

This could be,	this	or this.

Should we preserve or develop this pristine island?

If we should develop how should this development be done?

What do you think?

ColideZ Sweet Music Jamaica Tech Life