Bad Lad Investment Advisory

Migration...

2011-01-06T19:07:00.002-05:00

Gilbert Strategic Invesment Group
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Tuesday...

2011-01-04T09:29:00.000-05:00

Leaving Chips on the Table and Riding the Same Numbers...

First Order of Business...

2011-01-03T17:23:00.002-05:00

Our 6-Member DaTra Investment Clique has been Dissolved as of 11:43A this morning.
Three of us formed a new Investment Group. There won't be as much end-fighting between us as in the larger group. No Hard Feelings all 'round though, as it's hard to be Mad when our LEAST Productive Port was up 70+% in the 21 Months we were Active. (Not to mention, we met and all belong to the same social club.)

Original Clique was named for the way we Traded during 2009: Daily Trading.

Going INto Pharms This Year?, Got a Pick For You...

2011-01-03T13:25:00.002-05:00

We're Heavy In on PharmAthene with a October Contract @ 1.66. Took Profs in Dec. Today, we Re-Upped @ 4.13 (Stop Lossed). Now the waiting game begins...

PIP is a BioDefense company engaged in the development and commercialization of medical countermeasures against biological and chemical weapons. It has five product candidates in various stages of development.

In general, we're going to be buying more Pharms this year. PIP may be this year's XOMA (without the desperate downtrailing before the payoff). Our bet is the Profit-Taking will come early because of a lawsuit which may be decided with and out-of-court settlement (view file) as early as this month. Still, would have faith in Long (hey, we did do an S/L).

View Case File

20 Princlples to Help You with Smart Investing in 2011...

2011-01-03T11:47:00.003-05:00

1. Cut losses short (definitely rule #1 for growth stock investing).

2. Search for strong sales and earnings growth (especially triple-digit sales growth).

3. Search for revolutionary products with major benefits. First Solar and Crocs filled the bill in 2007 and were our two biggest winners. This year we've benefited from Green Mountain Coffee Roasters' revolutionary Keurig single-cup brewer.

4. Heed the message of the overall market--never fight the main trend!

5. Never average down in growth stocks.

6. Be prepared for all contingencies (always have an exit plan ahead of time).

7. Never try to buy at the bottom or sell at the top (if you try, you'll just lose more money).

8. To avoid gut-wrenching volatility, stick with stocks that are liquid (at least 500,000 shares traded per day or more).

9. Only put more money to work after your past purchases are showing you a profit.

10. Be humble-making money in stocks is tough, so don't kill yourself over one or two bad trades. Be thankful when you hit a big winner.

11. Find an investing system that works for you, then follow it. The best way to deal with stress from the market is to have a game plan ahead of time. If you wait until things are blowing up in your face, it's too late-by then, your emotions are out of control and you're likely to do the exact opposite of what's constructive.

12. "Markets are never wrong; opinions are," is a quote from Jesse L. Livermore, one of the most colorful, flamboyant, and respected market speculators of all time. Doesn't bode well for a Blog like mine, but doing your own due diligence is what you should take form this.

13. When looking for potential purchase candidates, examine both the company's fundamentals and its stock's technical performance. When analyzing the technicals, focus on the stock's momentum and price chart, along with its volume pattern and 50-day moving average.

14. Find a company that has a big idea ... one that leaves few if any limits on its future growth potential. It's these big ideas that create an atmosphere that can push a growth stock to dizzying heights!

15. Warren Buffett once said there were only two rules to follow with your investments: Rule #1: Don't lose money. Rule #2: Don't forget rule #1.

16. Our goal is to get you heavily invested while the market is trending higher. During those times, when investor perceptions are improving, investors are willing to pay more and more for stocks. This is when you can make big money! But, of course, no market moves in one direction forever. So, when the intermediate-term trend of stocks is down, your best move is to play defense. Easing up on new purchases, while building up cash by selling your weakest stocks, is a good idea.

17. Be an optimist. In our more than three decades of publishing investment advisories, we've seen many ups and downs for both the market and our country. But after every tough event our dynamic country and economy have eventually rebounded. So no matter how bleak the situation, always stay optimistic because our country and stock market will give you some dazzling opportunities!

18. Diversify your portfolio. 12 stocks provide plenty of diversification for your growth portfolio. Smaller investors can do well with as few as five stocks, but you should never have all your eggs in one basket.

19. Once you've invested in a stock, be patient. Recognize that time is your friend. Frequently stocks don't go up as fast as you might want them to. But if you can develop a persistent and tolerant attitude coupled with plenty of patience, you'll have a great advantage.

20. Buy growth stocks with strong Relative Performance ( RP ) lines. RP studies are a superb way to identify successful companies and to avoid problem companies. You should buy stocks that are consistently outperforming the market. This is a good indication that they are under accumulation, week after week, month after month, and that the companies are succeeding. The best investing tips come from the performance of the stocks themselves. So ignore hot tips!

8:AM and Already It's "One of Those Days"...

2011-01-03T08:13:00.015-05:00

Sometimes we're so immersed in our R&B ("Research and Buy"), we get absentminded. Case in Point:

I just Clicked "YTD" while Charting a Stock...

Been ON since 4:30, needed a time-out to Post this; time to get back to the Salt Mine...

P.S. If you don't get the significance of this, e-mail me and I'll clue you in!

2011, Back to Business...

2011-01-01T12:01:00.007-05:00

Hey guys. as you know, I've been taking a "Management Hiatus" for the past couple months (some would say longer). Your e-mails were great and I can assure you that the concerns about my not "coming back" are baseless.

It's 2011,

and it time to Trade...

Happy New Year, Everyone. Post you soon. Douglas45.

Happy New Year!

2010-12-31T14:27:00.000-05:00

I love this season...

2010-12-12T18:35:00.000-05:00

Taking some time off...

2010-12-07T18:29:00.000-05:00

Trading Strategies

2010-12-05T23:05:00.000-05:00

Trading Strategies

Why A "Down" Dollar Is Okay...

2010-11-30T00:05:00.000-05:00

     Hardly a day goes by that one country or another doesn’t complain about the value of the dollar. These countries are concerned that our government not only would not be upset if the dollar declined in value — it would actually welcome it. This is the case, even though the dollar is generally considered to be overvalued against the currencies of those countries with which we are running our biggest deficits. This list includes China, Malaysia, Russia and South Korea, to name just four.
     It goes without saying that if the dollar is too high in value, the goods we export will be priced out of many markets — including those in our own backyard. As a consequence, imports will exceed exports, thereby resulting in a trade deficit.
     On a balance-of-trade basis alone, it should come as no surprise that the dollar is weakening. In the absence of intervention, it is the markets’ way of trying to establish equilibrium.
     This development should assuage the complaints of those countries that worry about all the dollars they are accumulating as a result of our trade deficit with them.
     But are these countries happy? No, Virginia, they are not. They also don’t like to be criticized by us for keeping their currencies too low in value, thereby allowing them to accumulate a sizable trade surplus.
     In my view, if these surplus countries can’t accept a fairly valued dollar, then maybe we should look elsewhere for goods to satisfy our needs. As you know, we as a nation Consume More Than We Produce. We take care of this demand by importing goods from abroad, so why are these countries complaining? Many countries produce more than they consume, thus they need to sell us their excess production. I am sure that they would not like it if we stopped buying their goods and began producing more than we consume like they do. Actually, these countries want the dollar to remain overvalued, since it serves their main priority these days: It relives them of the need to stimulate domestic consumption.
     This way they can focus on reducing their budget deficits, which seems to be an overarching concern nowadays. At the same time they believe that they can feel free to lecture us on our seeming lack of fiscal probity.
     Our economy virtually cries out for a budget deficit. Cutting it now will reduce buying power at a time when, if anything, it needs bolstering by the government.

It will also ensure that today’s softness will become tomorrow’s recession.

"Special Dividens" Strategy...

2010-11-22T11:06:00.000-05:00

In Development...

2010-11-22T10:50:00.001-05:00

Hey guys, been busy, lately. No excuses for neglecting Posts, though. Here's Our Current Master. There are Good Prospects for Next Year, here.

ABAT ACLS AMLM.OB ATAX

BAK BBBY BGP BKCC BKCC BKPG.OB BQR

CAGTF.PK CAKE CBL CENX CHS CIIC CLWR CQB CSX CTIC

DDS DKS DRE DUK DUSA

EDD F FDX FLO FMIOX FRPT FSII FTR FWLT

GEA GMCR GSB

HCKAX HD HIT HON

IGD IID IROG.OB

JVA KSP KSP

LJPC.PK L LTHU.PK LVS

MCD MGM MLC MLC MLCTF.PK MOT MRO MRO MRT MSY

NEU NGD NHWK

ODP OZM

PAG PDLI PG PIKE PIKE PSID

RAD RDS-A RUTH

SIRI SMRT STD STX

T TGIC.OB TIE TLB TMRFX TOO

WFC WSCE.OB WY

X XOMA

The SMRT deal is baffling; it may have been a rookie move, but if it is, I got a broker friend to bitch to (the real Rookie Move was not taking Profs last week @ 10.60+ [In @ 10.14]). We currently have no Positions in SIRI or CLWR, but we've funds to reinvest when the price is right. Finally got our break with GMCR. CSX should have a good year-end; took profs in Oct., but won't even revisit that prop 'til mid-2011.

...

Help with the Tax Pinch Right Under Our Noses...

2010-11-16T19:54:00.002-05:00

Last Month, we were beginning the talk of what a pinch Taxes for the year were going to put in our pockets. Even with the "Heroes" now in Congress, taxes are still a major pain. Income/Property/Profits, take your pick and it still adds up the the same thing; a dent in the budget.

That's when we took a look at the "Holding" Accounts we had and all those Divs coming in. By Cashing Out the Last Q's Divs for the year, we could mitigate the out-of-pocket expenses of the Tax Burden. Now, it's not exactly a Strategy one must attenk Wharton for, but it is a pretty good idea.

Hell, if we don't blow the proceeds on Christmas Shopping, we'll have a nice Tax Fund. And really, if we were taking them for Christmas Shopping; we wouldn't have done very well this year...

(Hey, don't forget to put the Accounts back on Rollover

after the New Year!!!)

Today...

2010-11-16T19:15:00.000-05:00

Did anyone catch TGIC, today? What about the past week?

Readers Site Pick...

2010-11-16T15:48:00.005-05:00

A couple guys have left me Favorable Comments on this site. Haven't currently added it to my Toolbox, but it has a Good Hook and might be worth a look...

[LINK]

Off-Topic - Rant...No Cheap Advice...

2010-11-15T10:16:00.002-05:00

Based on yet another interruption on Friday night, as The Clique must field questions from outsiders...

My Clique has had it's personality clashes over the past year and consensus on what Positions to Buy, Sell and Hold does get contentious. On Friday's, we've had our alcohol-fueled disagreements (Johnny Walker is our 7th Partner), vowing dissolution of the partnership contract, only to pal up on Saturday morning at Borders/Starbucks.

But...

At a couple of venues, it's known that we are "Market Mavens" and we get people coming over and picking our brains; or, at least trying. Our conversation is about Stocks like the guys at the next pool table talk Sports. We are leery of people outside our group asking for Investment Advice. It's not such a big deal if someone wants an opinion on a particular stock, has been watching it and has his own opinion; but Heaven Help the Advice Moocher who just wants to know where to put his "piddle". Particularly with me, if a person hasn't put in any effort into Market Research (and is not a client paying 15% of Port Profs), I can't stand the inquiry!

I'm not discussing You Guys leaving me queries in the Comments App; that gives my brain a workout. I don't consider Readers of my blog to be strangers. Cetainly not like someone invading my space, attempting to be a buddy, while I'm Bellying Up to the bar. And I can just anticipate the question when someone I don't know comes over. If they're not Market Savvy, well, you've just go to be there as I, the cat, toys with that mouse...

2010-11-13T10:18:00.001-05:00

Taxes are very complicated for me and besides the rather innocuous advocacy for Flat and Lower Taxes, it's difficult for me to write an informed opinion on them. Accountant's Fees are well deserved.

Career Transition of a Friend (no requium)...

2010-11-12T10:30:00.000-05:00

Derrick Rodgers is leaving Ameritrade to work in VC. He's bee helpful to us for the past few months and we'll miss him. He and I worked for Central Data Systems in L.A. in 1981.

End of Year Strategies...

2010-11-11T11:58:00.009-05:00

This is the time of year when We can start taking a breather on trading. Our current Strategy is to go into a Holding Pattern until January of 2011.

After Our recent Positioning in HTS (Heavy, Heavy) it's time for us to settle in. Sure there's going to be the Infrequent Trade, but the Major Plays (excluding HTS) of going Back IN Long to MGM, LVS, MRO, PIKE, WFC and XOMA (mostly using Dollar-Cost Averaging) have been made. today was a good day to achieve this.

And I've coined a new phrase: "Redown"- buying shares on the downswing in cos one has Long Position on. We've always used this Strategy, but it took kudos from a broker I respect for me to realize what a Very Good Strategy this is.

We'll be using Divs Only to achieve trades for Nov-Dec.
We've Lost so much money on XOMA, that our DCA has been "improved" by 64%...
(The strategy on XOMA is Pure Spec; not intended for the timid.
And We are IN Heavy.)

Clear Sailing ahead for Teekay Offshore...

2010-10-21T16:05:00.007-04:00

Teekay Offshore Partners L.P. (TOO) has long been a favorite of mine. Recently, the price has been good and Held it's Value. The main reason We own it is for the Div. in the 8% Range. The Value Forward will be based on the fact that oil, regardless of the barrel price, must be Shipped and Stored. Empirical Intuition Trading at it's most Elementary. If you can catch it @ the $19-21 Range, GET IN.

(a Buy Op, selfishly, I hope won't happen...)

Light a Candle And Hold It for the Vigil, If That's What It Takes; But Be Vigilant!...

2010-10-20T15:09:00.001-04:00

     In my (long ago) Market Basics Posting on HubPages, I informed readers of the Three Different Types of Accounts We have and what the role of each was. Lately, Our "Cowboys" has been VERY active with IN & OUT Trades (TIGC, CTIC, et al). If those accounts hadn't the Vigil on them, we'd have losses; as we wouldn't have Caught the UPs or the Downs.
     Unfortunately, one of my readers, has just "taken a bath" in her Playing. It only took a day, but what a difference a day makes! M-a-y-b-e your Holding and Working Accounts can afford a bit of neglect (with Sell or Loss Orders in place) --- but Cowboy Trades will not be a good investment vehicle if they are neglected.
     The Caution I'm  Posting, here, is to set up the OPEN/NOON/9PM Check-in on your Positions (DUH!) if you're into The Play. And I'll reiterate my fav comment; "Pigs Starve". 10% Gains on a 2-Day Play should have Stop Losses applied!

(And we all bath, occassionally...)

Weyerhaeuser Company, A BUY?...

2010-10-15T13:10:00.006-04:00

Last year, we finally had enough profits to break out of our Comfort Level and purchase stocks over $20 per share. One of the first Heavy Buys was The Weyerhaeuser Company (WY). We went IN @ 36.21 on anticipation of surely rising housing construction and, as a Holding Stock, more future diversification into Real Estate Sales. In May, we got on a bender to Dump "Non-Performing/Stagnant" Stocks to raise Buy Cash. WY was on the guillotine and was sold on the 19th for 43.87. It had come off the High of 53.89 and SmarTrend had perdicted a Downturn, c'est la vie...

Investment Life went on, as we took the company off the Port Watchlists and relegated it to Prospectives. The next Blip came on July 20th when the shares dropped from 41.83 the previous day to 15 + change. This major correction was due to the fall in demand of packing boxes (??) and bad housing reports.

NOW...

We just went IN @ 15.445, purchasing the exact amount of shares we did in October of last year. Same strategy will apply and we'll toast the move, tonight; not only for going back in, but for the bullet we dodged earlier this year (we already raised a glass to that).

This, Boys and Girls

is how The Game is Played...

(Now, if only we could only get EVEN on ZOMA!!!..)

Surprise in Conflicting Results...

2010-10-15T12:14:00.004-04:00

Our Current Retail Portfolio Stocks (BBBY, CHS, DDS, DKS, SMRT, TLB) aren't often thought of by us as "Contrarian Stocks"*, but they don't seen to be hurting too much in view of Consumer Sentiment being Lower Than Expected in October '10.
However, we did choose these stocks based on a Recovering Economy as opposed to some we may have chosen (but not purchased) for a Declining One; say, a WMT or TGC. That Play seems to be paying off.

*"Contrarian Stocks" are those in Our Ports which go against the Dow, rising in price as the Dow is down and visa-versa.

Oct 15 (Reuters) - Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers' preliminary October consumer sentiment fell to 67.9 from 68.2 in the final September reading according to a report released on Friday. Economists in a Reuters survey expected a preliminary October reading of 69.0.