M.A.D. ( Make a Difference)

CHINESE LADAKH TRANSGRESSION & RAMIFICATIONS

2020-07-13T00:48:00.000-07:00

China after conducting its exercises in Tibet, rather than de induct to mainland moved it closer to Indo - Tibet border. Huge force level had two Motorised divisions plus all or-batted units required to wage war.

China amassed its forces at Depsang plain just across DBO & Galwan valley just across Shyok - Gulwan river junction. Experts have opined that the movement by the Chinese at the Depsang plains was serious. People's Liberation Army is close to a place known as Bottleneck. This is the Rakki and Jeewan rivulets are where there was a stand-off in 2013.

Its believed that any movement westwards by the PLA can threaten the Dabruk-Shyok-DBO road and the airfield. Further movement of additional PLA troops over the past one week at the Depsang plains, further north of Galwan towards the Karakoram pass. This has raised concerns as the Daulat Beg Oldie is less than 25 kilometres from the Chinese posts.

Chinese had also increased presence at Pangong Tso & opposite Demchok plains in defensive posture. Reportedly Chinese soldiers & allied wherewithal are already present in POK to construct dams & allied infrastructure.

Pakistan was relocating terrorists in POK Pakistan was also activating LOC almost daily with very heavy artillery shelling to engage our posts and thereby facilitate terrorist induction.

It thus emerges

Large force presence opposite Depsang plains

Significant force level in Galwan River bed & heights around, with habitat & road construction activity

Pangong Tso lake had reasonable amount of force

Across Demchok plains, Chinese were deployed to absorb any counter by Indian forces

POK had defence personnel with huge engineering equipment pre located available for any strike from Western side

Pakistan army was trying to keep LOC troops fully active with artillery firing to facilitate terrorist induction.

Chinese President Xi had declared himself as President for life & dreamed of making China into No One super power by dethroning USA. President Trump was coming down heavy on Chinese economy which was hurting China & post corona unleashing its gone worse with many MNCs moving out of China. With 300 million unemployed, massive unrest wasn’t ruled out by Xi. Chinese aggression in Hong Kong, Taiwan & South China Sea plus Ladakh was perceived by rest of the world as treacherous & untrustworthy behaviour not in harmony with civilised world values. Its threatening nations with consequences if anyone voiced opinions against China either on Corona or 5 G Chinese companies. It had really let loose its plan to usurp power whilst world was busy with corona catastrophe by using military & economic leverage.

India on the other hand was totally busy in winter stocking of troops deployed in high altitude areas & fighting corona. Chinese fifth column comprising media, journalists, intellectuals, politicians & many veterans were fully active in announcing Indian army defeat & Chinese having won decisive victory by occupying huge chunks of strategic territory. And many not only disbelieved Indian version but tried best to discredit Indian version by misinterpreting satellite imageries or quoting reliable sourced on conditions on anonymity. China support was full & Indian govt the punching bag till nationalists punctured the narrative & truth emerged albeit slowly.

In fact complete free world was totally fighting Chinese unleashed corona rather unsuccessfully with WHO contributing to misery through misinformation by behaving like Chinese pawn.

By end May Chinese stage was set to unfold its grand strategy of expansionism through salami slicing in Ladakh. Interdict DBO road around Galwan. Using Depsang force to capture DBO/deny airfield thereafter link up with Shaksham valley/POK whilst maintaining pressure at Pangong Tso & Demchok. POK based military force starts operation from West to join Depsang plain thrust. With DBO captured/isolated Indian position & military situation would have been precarious with defeat as the only option. The terminal state would have been ore humiliating than 62 defeat.

The plan couldn’t succeed for two reasons, one is super fast build up by India using road & air resources. Second was extremely gallant action by 16 Bihar on 15/16 Jun & reasonably stubborn response in Pangong Tso earlier. 16 BIHAR Galwan action though tactical in nature had massive strategic ramifications with condemnation world wide & the tide turned.

Strong response by PM & USA, Russia & rest of free world standing with India checkmated Chinese design totally. In fact focus shifted to South China Sea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Uighur & Tibet.

However, this withdrawal or whatever one wishes to call it, as temporary, Chinese transgressions shall continue till LAC defined, which China is disinterested. Hasn’t given maps of its perception & our babudom completed twenty plus rounds of talks. Poodle faking. India must be prepared for such Chinese actions till it gives a befitting reply. India can’t match China militarily or economically thus need to get into alliance of like minded nations to counter China.

India could undertake following steps to counter untrustworthy neighbour hell bent on consuming large areas belonging to weaker nations. Suggested actions given below

Force permanent deployment on LAC by Chinese

ITBP under local operational commander

Relocate Tibetans from McLeod Ganj to Ladakh

Due respectability to HH Dalai Lama

Demand Tibet being independent Country

Raise Uighur human rights issue; support Taiwan & other nations in that area

Get into strategic economic & military alliance against China to counter its expansionism on land & sea

Let Indian companies take on infrastructure contracts even if slightly costlier

Replace China worldwide as manufacturing destination

Curtail fifth columnists or those openly supporting China but belittling India

Baluchistan & POK must be addressed to curtail Pakistan terror

China should be debarred from permanent membership of UNSC

Debar China from Tokyo Olympics 2021

China has a dream of its position & aims to achieve at any cost. Its failed attempt of 2020 has been an unmitigated blunder. Its lost too much of trust but be rest assured China is a nation focussed on its national interests, values or methods are inconsequential. India whilst developing itself economically & militarily must get into economic & strategic alliance to safeguard our future interests.

COUNTERING BELLIGERENT CHINESE RISE

2020-07-04T00:11:00.000-07:00

China is economically & military an extremely powerful nation as of date. Over a period of time it has used coercion & financial clout to subjugate to weak democratic/autocratic leaders; dominated influencing world bodies, media houses/opinion makers in democratic nations & funded Universities/political parties with millions of dollars.

Present Chinese leadership unleashed corona across the globe & whilst world was fighting virus it initiated its expansionist agenda for capturing territory in neighbourhood both at land & sea.

None of its neighbours including Russia or India can counter Chinese military individually. Smaller nations of South China Sea or economic giant Japan too can not challenge China all by itself. Chinese STRENGTH is MILITARY & its WEAKNESS ECONOMY

Chinese rise is dangerous due treachery & its violation of treaties as convenient to it. Its today the EVIL empire – hated, untrustworthy & feared. It can use brute force without caring for world bodies or values followed by democracies. Subjugation of Tibet or inhumane treatment of Uighur Muslims or use of excessive force against Hongkong & using force to scare Taiwan, Vietnam, Philippines & other smaller nations. Creating trouble in Myanmar or seizing Nepalese territory, it has created many enemies.

Chinese friends incl North Korea & Pakistan(available to highest bidder aka HIRAMANDI tradition) Almost colonised will do Chinese bidding totally. Restive Baluchistan & POK would keep Pakistan armed forces fully committed.

Chinese vulnerabilities are massive. Unemployment, restive population of captured territories, own youth/population/veterans demanding freedom & accountability. Chinese line of communication to fight India or assist Pakistan pass through Tibet/Xinjiang restive regions & its shipping getting oil from Middle East passes through narrow Malacca straight, easily choked from A&N islands.

Since China is posing threat to existing world order it would be prudent to form an alliance to counter belligerent rise of evil empire. India is one fulcrum capable of challenging China across Himalayas, however, OIC & CAR nations need to join to save Uighur Muslims from Chinese torture. Both these organisations combined have adequate influence to restraint Pakistan & push from Western side threatening CPEC/Karakoram Highway/Aksai Chin/POK. This push aims to liberate East Turkmenistan (present Xinjiang) & Tibet. With India & this land based alliance ties down huge Chinese forces in maintaining Lines of Communication/logistic support & weaken its capability in South China Sea.

US led QUAD to block Malacca & SCS & curtail oil flow from Middle East. Logistic bases at Diego Garcia/A&N Islands/Guam in Pacific to support. This operation ensures smaller nation

are free from fear of Bully & SCS available to all for shipping.

Prolonged deployment astride Himalayas along CAR- Indo – China - Myanmar border & OIC posturing from West threatening East Turkmenistan.

Grand strategy must be THREATENING MILITARILY but DECIMATING ECONOMICALLY whilst restive assets in Tibet/Xinjiang/mainland China add to Chinese miseries.

Chinese economic collapse ensure

Present aggressive leadership replaced

Behaviour in harmony with international norms

Neutralised as military threat

Tibet, Xinjiang, Macau, Mongolia, Hongkong & Taiwan independent states

Harmonious & peaceful world

CHINESE MISADVENTURE IN LADAKH & POSSIBLE END RESULTS

2020-06-26T02:31:00.000-07:00

Whilst India was busy fighting Chinese unleashed Corona virus, this treacherous & backstabbing nation transgressed into certain territories in Ladakh region. Violating all treaties & protocols it assaulted Indian soldiers with iron rods & barbed wire made instruments capable of severe injuries incl fatalities. India lost a CO & twenty men but Chinese losses unknown because its afraid of justifying dead. It occupied few other points as well.

Whilst talks of mutual withdrawal were ongoing it has amassed its war waging wherewithal at number of places but so has India reinforced its forces with tanks, artillery guns & trained manpower.

Reasons for Chinese transgression, claimed by experts, are many. These include

Infrastructure development close to LAC negating Chinese build up superiority

Fear of India capturing POK & Aksai Chin

Perceived threat to CPEC

Change of status of J&K

Teach India a lesson

Capture territories as part of Slamy slicing

Divert attention from internal problems. Unemployment, economy etc

Announce to the world China has arrived

China had amassed troops & war fighting resources in Tibet as part of annual exercise. Instead of falling back, these were inducted into Galwan valley & some other places. Most of the mundane issues have been discussed in national/international media with everyone giving his own assessment. Its worth noting that Indian army or government has not shared much information; China doesn’t share much other than propaganda material. Truth is known to armies or nations at apex level rest all is in speculation or professional analysis. Danger of this narrative is, in satellite image reading experts vary from deep movement into Indian territory to crossing. Thus credibility question mark.

Chines media initially threatening India with war dire consequences, be prepared to fight with Nepal/Pakistan & China. Later, after Galwan encounter, there was total change. Quoting Mahatma Gandhi; don’t align with USA, India China can rise together etc but it kept on building its forces across LAC all along Indo – Chinese border. During India DM’s visit to Russia for 75 anniversary victory parade, India requested for additional weapons on priority, which were promised. Indian RM refused to interact with Chinese counterpart, though mouthpiece Global Times announced meeting was on & then it requested Russia not to give weapons to India, it was declined. China continues to expand area of flash points though being challenged by Indian army at every point.

Indian army is extremely strong in mountain warfare & its air force superior to China. Airfield locations give clear advantage to India. India has matching armoured & surveillance capabilities & superior air mobility & artillery. China on the other hand has better missiles & cyber capability plus huge influencing assets in Indian media/political parties/veteran journalists. But its has long logistic lines, little infrastructure to deploy in strength to man LAC plus extremely vulnerable border areas both Tibet & Xinjiang.

At the international level, China is accused & isolated on unleashing corona; free world leaders wish to examine facts & probably recommend punitive measure incl economic sanctions. Its belligerence in Hongkong, Taiwan, South China Sea, Japan & Vietnam has been taken cognizance of & certainly not being accepted; its economy already squeezing will suffer huge if manufacturing moves out of China.

USA has already moved its aircraft carriers to South China Sea, its relocating forces from Germany to Asia to counter belligerent China. India has moved its warships from Arabian Sea to Bay of Bengal monitoring Malacca straight – connecting Pacific to Indian Ocean. Quad US, India, Japan & Australian navies should be moving in due course & Japanese are deploying missiles capable of countering hostile Chinese activity.

Options for India

Military domain. Build up so as not to get surprised

Contain transgression

Occupy heights elsewhere in disputed areas,should PLA refuse to return from areas occupied by it

Keep PLA engaged till winters, General WINTER will destroy PLA

Keep POK option open, should PLA withdraw prematurely

Reserves tied down, can’t influence South China Sea operations

Don’t cede any territory or fresh claims

Coordinate with US & Quad operations in South China Sea & activate assets in China, Hongkong, Taiwan, Japan & Korea. Extremely vulnerable logistic support lines.

Economy collapsing is better option as military action could rally people with Xi Jingping; economic disaster will destroy him without round fired

Desirable end states

Xi jingping dethroned by his people & China collapses aka USSR

India would be delighted if Aksai Chin & POK rejoin India. CPEC dead. Tibet independent – HHDL returns honourably back to Tibet. India would be satisfied if LAC demarcated & converted into International Border.

Free world led by USA. Satisfied if force not used against Hongkong & other nations of South China Sea & free passage assured to all ships. China behaves responsibly as per international norms. Replace Xi jingping with moderate leader.

Dependence on China reduced significantly

China would like to emerge as sole super power dethroning USA & thereafter rule the world through its values system by dominating all word decision making bodies. Increase its territories by integrating Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan & occupy Northern parts of Ladakh to reduce threat to CPEC & other assets in POK/Aksaichin/Xinjiang.

INDIAN DEFENCE FORCE AND POLITISISATION

2019-04-15T00:03:00.000-07:00

Indian defence forces were organised from local kings forces to organised national force by British during its rule over India. Indian defence force apart from securing hostile frontiers with Afghanistan were also used for conquering kings who were unwillingly to join British government in India. Since defence forces were required to fight & kill Indian citizens , fighting on the other side presented a loyalty dilemma. Thus British officers commanding Indian forces, Cantonments away from civilians & almost complete infrastructure to sustain and ensure quality life with out mixing up with common citizens was put in place.

Freedom fighters, other leaders fighting for independence had significant potential of influencing mind of soldiers which could lead to insubordination/mutiny against British against Indian citizens. Defence forces came under Governor General, who exercised all power with some sort of power delegated to natives. APOLITICAL army ensured a virtual wall between British, the rulers and Indians, the ruled. Suited British and they ensured by giving special status to defence personnel. Thus keeping forces away from politics was crucial for survival of British rule in India.

ICS, Police & other central services ensuring tax collections & furthering British rule were treated with special incentives. Degradadtion of Indian heritage, dividing society on various lines & introduction of English language ensured divide between Native & British & their tools for governance always existed giving inferiority complex to natives. And it worked wonderfully well for over a century.

In 47 when India became independent, every tool of governance, changed to be in harmony with new masters, elected representatives, change attitude to civilians. Infact from Master-slaves equation,it changed to US & OURS. For some reasons defence forces refused to fall in line and continued with British system of things- privileged status but soon it became an eye sore People started to question it and some thought of coup aka Pakistan by defence forces. Apolitical army and fear of coup scared the politicians. It continued with President as Supreme Commander, equivalent of British Governor General but minus power, which was with Prime Minister. Thus babus and politicians started to degrade defence forces by keeping them away from decision making and controlling all financial powers. Defence being super specialised profession and minister knowing little babus took power into their hands by conniving with political leadership. Defence forces kept going down whilst other organs kept going up in all parameters incl pay, perks, status etc.

Presently forces are being strangulated by babus, knowing nothing with zero accountability but exercising all powers on the name of democracy. This has harmed the services tremendously. Infact popular saying goes, Indian Defence Forces biggest enemy is our Ministry Of Defence.

Numerous studies/recommendation to bring in professionalism in MOD have been blocked by MOD fearing accountability & Minsters have accepted this nonsensical logic.

The question what Defence forces need to ask is why aren’t we part of political system of India? Why we have no say in policy matters? If other services are efficient, loyal why can’t we be loyal why becoming political?

Being political implies,

We vote to political parties, which we are doing even today.

We must interact with politicians of all parties. This is not being done. But as responsible citizens, a soldier must be aware of various lines of thought prevailing in the country.

PM & not President must be Supreme Commander as all power & resource are vested with GOI headed by PM. President being only a ceremonial head.

Every Indian votes and so do soldiers. How does a soldier make an intelligent choice if he is isolated from rest of society?

Time for defence forces to initiate discussion to reform itself from apolitical to political army. Babus, who are exercising powers on behalf of ministers with out accountability will loose.

Its WIN WIN for India, & Indian defence forces. There is bound to be initial resistance due emotional reasons but logical approach and changing ties demand Politicisation being need of the hour.

AFGHANISTAN: POST US DEPARTURE, WAY AHEAD

2019-01-21T00:08:00.001-08:00

US leaving Afghanistan is a matter of time. Though its being claimed as some victory but the fact is US is abandoning Afghanistan out of frustration, as nothing has unfolded as per its plans.

Pakistan sees this as a big victory, as it hopes it would be able to install Pak based Taliban to rule Afghanistan after US exit. Its set back for weak democratic government in Af as well as India which has invested huge resources in developing its soft power and providing training to military and police forces.

Afghanistan has been ruled by weak centre through strong tribal lords exercising influence on their tribes. War/tribal lords are ferociously independent but loyalty can be purchased with adequate compensation in cash or kind. People are hardy and not inclined to follow strict discipline. Religious but tolerant unlike Taliban which believes in Sharia. It has weak institutions with writ running over restricted areas with little authority to enforce its directions. Democracy, women empowerment etc are not very popular being western concepts.

Drugs have of late become major source of earnings, otherwise agriculture and allied activities, keep people employed.

On the western front, Russia,CAR and Iran do wield influence and would not like hostile regime in Kabul to support tribals with cross border loyalties. Thus would retain degree of influence through tribal war lords and exercise control over areas close to borders.

on the eastern side Pak has strained relations with tribals and Afghanistan. Border between two nations is loosely demarcated, underdeveloped with extremely rugged terrain. Baluchistan and other tribes are not too happy and would like to cede away from Pak and ethnic affinity is close to Afghans than Pak. Pak has also been exploiting this area without any development.

China would like to fill the void created by US withdrawal but Muslims distrust Chinese due to their harassment of Uighurs in Xingjiang province. China has the financial might to influence or control Afghanistan through loose federation of tribal war lords but Taliban will Not accept any Chinese role. Dilemma for both Pak and China.

India has a challenging period ahead. Everyone less democratic government and masses are not happy with Indian influence amongst masses. Soft power wise India is numero uno. But many feel India in an uninvited guest and must exit letting Pak to manage Afghanistan.

US, Afghan government desire India deploy its military forces in Afghanistan. For obvious reasons India is disinclined. Also moment US departs, first to fall would central democratically elected government at Kabul. And it really would make no difference since it has limited influence beyond Kabul.

After US departs with or without an agreement, uncertainty that follows will lead to huge bloodshed, refugees exodus and collapse of whatever governance is there Taliban will come back and try to establish its writ through tribal war lords by promising power and money. Chaos would prevail for considerable amount of time. China, India, CAR,Russia, Iran and India would like to follow wait and watch policy whilst Pak will try to establish a regime loyal to it with China quietly directing things from behind the scenes to ensure favourable regime.

Other scenario is China takes the lead incorporating all Afghanistan’s neighbours and try to hammer out way ahead to ensure peace in Afghanistan and all share holders security and financial concerns are addressed. China would pump in huge resources for road and allied infrastructure development enabling connectivity and access to all for trade and other activities.

Islamic forces led by Saudi Arabia or Iran, is an option, but existing animosity amongst these nations and strained US -Iran relations rule out this, otherwise a workable option.

Finally UN sponsored process comprising forces of neighbouring countries and China/India could stabilise Afghanistan without undue bloodshed. Treaty brokered primarily by US, Russia and UN amongst Afghanistan government, other influential tribal leaders and Taliban leadership.

India should encourage US to go far UN facilitated stabilisation and agreement implementation programme with security and financial during transition clearly defined. UN has adequate expertise in managing multi lateral forces with reasonable level of efficiency.

India must be more proactive as PM Modi has reasonable trust of all stake holders less Pakistan, that can be better managed through China. Its most workable and Indian long term interests adequately safeguarded.

TRIBALS OF ANDAMAN & NICOBAR

2018-11-26T23:51:00.001-08:00

Tribals of A&N islands are in news from time to time. Latest being killing of an American by Sentinelese.

These islands comprising more than 500 small to big, majority uninhabited stretch almost 700 kms North South. Indira Point, southernmost tip is very close To Indonesia & Straight of Malacca.

Jarawas, Onges, East Andamanese, Nicobaris, Sentinelses and Shompens are the original tribes of these islands. Shompens are Mongoloid whereas all others are Negrito origin.

Jarawas Live astride weatern coast of main Andaman island in thickly forested areas with their habitat bounded by Bush Police, preventing any entry into the tribal area. Jarawas were hostile to human presence & kept to themselves with hunting and fishing being primary foods augmented by coconut & forest produce. Could be spotted by low flying helicopters sitting on beach, catching fish or swimming across smaller bays. Hutments made of forest produce were in clusters visible from air. If one flew low, tribals would shoot arrows. Contact with humans was disliked but was established in early 80s. However with Andaman Trunk road cutting across the island,their interaction with humans has become frequent.

East Andamanse & Onges were domesticated way back in 80s. Onges are in Little Andaman and stay together in a small cluster. Some of them have even joined Police & Government service. But majority has become lethargic with beetle nut(supari) about 2 kg per adult per month being consumed.

Nicobarese. Live in Car Nicobar. Were exposed to missionary exploits very early. Hardy people and very good footballers apart from good boatsmen. Almost become part of mainstream.

Shompens inhabiting Great Nicobar Island are extremely shy but quite happy with jungle/tribal life. Their skills with jungle living and surviving are something we all can imbibe from them. Know lot about herbs & shrubs and flaura & fauna. Treat to see them extracting honey from honeycombs.

Sentinelese Live in North Sentinel Island are extremely ferocious about human endeavour to establish contact & very little is known about them. Have been known to fire with bows & arrows to deny access to the island. Its also believed that during tsunami when Car Nicobar was devastated, Sentinelese moved to higher reaches in time and suffered no damage. Probably some sixth sense or other methodology of forewarning.

Should we try to civilise them or let them be? That debate has been going on since long time and shall continue for more time. However, seeing civilised Jarawas, asking for tobacco from vehicles driving on Andaman Trunk road was very sorry state. ( AT road was constructed with labour from Bihar and other Indian states. Since it was prolonged construction and manpower intensive. Jarawas slowly befriended & picked up ills). Or Onges, one has extremely serious doubts about forcing change in their lifestyles. Probably a catastrophic blunder. Solution probably lies in controlled access and harmonising tribals lifestyles with ours and subjecting it to mid course corrections. Scientific approach under guidance of experts with studying impact on various facets over a prolonged periods of time.

Tribal tourism to earn money is an extremely bad idea. Poorly conceived without experts advise, will lead to disaster.

LET THEM BE. INTERVENE ONLY FOR CRISIS MANAGEMENT

KASHMIR PROBLEM: FRESH LOOK

2018-06-05T22:59:00.000-07:00

Kashmir is lingering as problem defying solution since Independence. Experts give many reasons starting from two nation theory to Pakistan involvement and numerous others. Number of solutions have been proposed by international/national experts but haven’t found favour with both warring nations.

Today’s situation is bad not its been worse earlier. Though very worrisome issue is that mind space has been occupied by Wahhabi ideology. This implies hatred for non Muslims amongst effected populace and low credibility of whatever Indian state or its agencies do for good of masses.

Its also a fact that majority populace of J&K is not with terrorists or Pakistan or desirous of so called Azadi. In Kashmir valley, populace living ahead of Shamshabari Range are patriots and help army to the extent its asked for. These people go to the extent of sharing intelligence and other anti-national activity coming to their notice. In Kashmir, few disturbed districts where separatists have some clout and can draw huge crowds protesting against India; shouting pro Pakistan slogans or carrying ISIS/Pak flags or throwing stones at SF vehicles or forces or participating in funeral processions. On the face of it, it appears highly anti patriotic but fact is majority is there out of fear of terrorists, making quick buck or jingoism. Even populace participates for similar reasons. Terrorists kidnap boys/girls at will for extorting money; recruitment in terrorist organisations or young women for sexual satisfaction of freelance terrorists.

Government massive economic packages and SF operations termed as WHAM or Winning Hearts And Minds have limited impact.

State government virtually blackmails Centre about grave consequences of tempering with special status or other provisos of GOI. State takes hefty economic subsidy but without any accountability. Indian Supreme Court or GOI rules have limited implementation. In fact state decides which rules to implement and those demanding accountability, transparency or devolution of power or women empowerment are not implemented as not in harmony with Sharia. However Haj subsidy, taking interests on deposits from banks are accepted.

Biggest challenge and one issue where present situation differs from past is MIND SPACE. Radio Muzzafarabad was trying to be Radio Free Europe equivalent beaming anti India propaganda since 70s and many believed it to be true. However with cyber space explosion, rentless anti India propaganda being delivered on individual mobiles through Facebook, what's app and emails. Fake news, doctored videos and misinformation regarding atrocities by Hindus against Muslims are popular themes. All these address emotive vulnerability of masses and feeling of distrust. Separatists & politicians when out of power fully add to Mind space poisoning. Once in power becomes well nigh impossible to change thus stance which at times appears to be antagonistic to Indians but local polity is looking at its vote bank. Fund flow from Centre but vote flow from locals, thus CATCH 22 for all politicians.

Media and locals in government jobs have to ensure personal and family safety and security. After all their roots, relatives and other survival well bing is common with masses. Any antagonistic behaviour implies some one being killed/kidnapped. Release demands huge ransom amounts. So LIVE & LET LIVE principle followed by majority of local service providers even when employed by state.

Wahhabi Islam is autocratic and any dissent is quelled with extreme violence. Augmented with relentless assault on Mind space by Pak media at radio, TV and cyber space, local media and religious teachers/ separatists.

Masses are thus victims of fear psychosis due to inability of state to provide security thereby leaving survival at mercy of terrorists. Second is relentless propaganda by media, religious teachers and Pak based agencies. With Indian authorities indifference to counter terrorists/separatists diktat and initiate stringent action against defaulters defying state, populace is slowly but surely drifting away from India.

Is there a solution?

Of course YES. However it needs clear cut and harmonious long term approach rather than knee jerk or let state handle or crisis based reaction. Central Governments have been quite happy with status quo being ensured by state government.On situstion getting worse, some financial package is announced and thereafter its business as normal. There is huge trust deficit between masses and state.

Some Suggestions

Reoccupy MIND SPACE. Religious leaders must be brought on media and interact with youth through FATWAS or logical discussions to shun violence.

Credible, grass root level youth icons must be encouraged to assume leadership. Abdullah and Muftis plus few other families control valley and have own vested agenda of dynasty and status quo proliferation.

Organise mass populace participating events celebrating local festivals and talent. This be organised and conducted by local schools/colleges or block level. Government should be facilitator only. Encourage sports for boys and girls in schools and colleges in big way.

Modernise Madarsas as being done in UP with NCERT syllabi.

Empower women and girls. Talent exploitation be encouraged.

Local NGOs must come up to reach out to populace for delivery of trust.

Make Panchayat Raj strong as it can deliver people’s expectations.

Use SF as last resort rather than prime weapon to manage state. SF must come to control violence and not be presence just for the heck of it.

Shift focus beyond Srinagar. Healthy competition between Kashmir, Jammu and Leh on various parameters of development with incentives will encourage performance on issues those matters.

State governent must have service employee mix policy of 50:40:10. 50% from the region; 10% from Leh and 40 from other region. Will ensure judiciousness, better trust and balanced

HR must be respected and anti terrorists operations must be hard int based surgical in nature. Local intelligence is key to success. Human and technological intelligence needs major investments. Huge reward potential in mid term.

Harassing people by terrorists/SF for intelligence is greatest fear amongst masses. Both use force, coercion and torture to extract information. Mid night knock is greatest stressors for anyone residing in theses areas.

Encourage Gujars and Bakarwals (living ahead of Shamshabari) to relocate at least during winters in Kashmir urban areas.

Household industry to economically better masses. Mega industries are unsuited as of date but once situation improves, huge potential for agro, pharama and electronics hubs to create world class facilities.

Elected representatives must communicate more and minus paraphernalia of huge security. The present security arrangements for VIPs antagonises common people. Their lives have little relevance. Major cause of drift.

Facilitate non partisan sane voices to emerge collectively.

Encourage trust build up amongst Kashmiris, Jammuites and Leh residents.

Encourage local culture Sufi thought, kashmiryat, excellence, empowerment by incorporating all influential people.

Tough stand on all spreading fear psychosis and drift amongst masses by acting on behest of adversary

Ensure safety and security of masses and proper focus on future of youth

GOI and State has two challenges if there is genuine desire to establish normalcy.

ONE. STOP Drift by reoccupying mind space & regain trust

TWO. Ensure safety of masses by enforcing writ of state.

Indo-Chinese Informal summit meeting at Wuhan

2018-04-26T01:04:00.000-07:00

After strained relation post 73 day long Doklam stand-off, two powerful neighbours are making an endeavour to reset way ahead. There are many serious irreconcilable differences as well as huge opportunities. Strategic and economic cooperation and not belligerence is the way ahead.

Chinese arrogance in NSG & Pak terror veto & CPEC going through POK are well known and its difficult for India to fallback on any of the issues. For China CPEC/BRI is most prestigious investment which will hurl China into dominating economic super power. Its fear of SLOC passing through Indian Ocean & Malacca straight with potential of chocking Chinese economy is Chinese biggest fear. Chinese unity is again one of the big fears . Muslims in Uighur in Xingjiang region and Tibet plateau both are restive and Chinese have deployed massive resources to manage discontent through use of brutal physical force, isolating areas/populace from rest of the world and of course forcing demographic change by settling Hans & huge investments. However, these measures are causing backlash with very severe ramifications, in worst case scenarios, may lead to Chinese implosion aka USSR. Finally Chinese booming economy is dependent on exports overwhelming markets through cheap goods via huge subsidies. Its led to local markets closing down leaving millions jobless and huge trade deficit. Acceptable initially but being resented due huge trade imbalances. This has led to dumping penalties and resistance to cheap goods dumping. Chinese economy and unemployment would be hit adding to social unrest and government becoming vulnerable. Chinese investments are also under scanner due stringent conditions, making host nations heavily dependent and vulnerable to economic blackmail. Nations are scared or extremely cautious of Chinese investments having learnt of consequences faced by others. China is seen as brutally demanding and coercive partner treating host nations with contempt.

India is rising economy thus darling of world investors due huge under penetrated markets. Its appetite for consumer goods is unparalleled. India's defence modernisation is huge attraction for world arms manufacturers. Top arms manufacturers are willing to produce in India as well as willing to share cutting edge classified technology in exchange of orders. In soft power, India is miles ahead and it is perceived as caring, benevolent nation.

Chinese domination of Indian Ocean or Asian region is unacceptable to India due its economy and stature. Against Chinese belligerence India desires cooperation and peaceful resolutions of disagreements.

Chinese wish list

India’s support for CPEC/BRI

Less pressure on Pak on terror front

No trade restrictions to Chinese companies in telecommunications.

Control HH Dalai Lama

Be in Chinese camp or Neutral but not anti

Stay away from oil exploration in South China Sea in conjunction with Vietnam

No Brahmos to Vietnam

Indian wish list

NSG membership

No economic activity in POK.

Joint Ventures in Afghanistan.

Quite borders. Pak controlling terror export to India/Afghanistan.

No unfriendly activity on borders

Investments in India.

Opening Chinese markets to Indian firms to ensure balanced trade

There is bound to be discussion on overlapping interests/concerns. Our neighbours being lured by China due to money power causing deep concern/mistrust.

Syria, Iran vs West’s belligerence and managing towards beneficial culmination. West not cancelling Iran’s nuclear deal concern for both.

Middle East oil prices management mechanism too would be discussed.

Challenge

Both leaders are very strong nationalists and wish to take nations to greater heights of success and glory. Cooperation suits both but due to overlapping areas of interest it would demand great statesmanship to come to balanced posture without losing long term strategic interests/allies.

World Oil price management, peace in Middle East, Afghanistan and investments should be doable to advantage of both.

CPEC, Pak & terror, NSG, trade balancing are issues which would demand tough negotiations and give & take. PM Modi would be somewhat vulnerable due elections in 19 to give any concessions which could be exploited as sell out by opposition parties but extremely job creating investments with short term gestation periods would be desirable. Xingping would like access to Indian markets without any Chinese specific restrictions is one area where agreement is doable as win win situation.

Great opportunity with fresh decisions for resetting future through cooperation could pave the way for both rising to top as economic and military powers. Both strong nationalist leaders would aim at that without antagonising own interests is tough challenge

Unfolding Syrian crisis and ramifications for India

2018-04-16T01:47:00.002-07:00

US led forces including France and Britain carried out missile attacks on Syrian territory alleging these to be chemical research/ storage & weapon manufacturing facilities. Potentially a very complex and dangerous situation could flow if opposing forces cross red lines.

Syria is a Shia state with Iran & Iraq supporting it on religious lines and has military backing of Russia. Lined up against in addition to US led coalition forces are Saudis land Sunni world. Thus

* Sunni VS Shia both fighting far religious supremacy in the Muslim world with both temporal heads, i.e. Saudis & Iran contesting. It has far reaching ramifications.

* US led forces of France and England against and Russia far Syria.

Russia has deployed advisors and weapons within Syria. It also includes the deadly anti air craft system capable of shooting incoming missiles and supposedly best available in the world as of date. Russia will stand with Syria as its credibility would be at stake should it back down or Syrians face defeat. Prez Putin will not accept and will positively up the ante as worst case scenario.

Iran has reasonable quality forces and high quality terrorist organisation called Hezbollah operating from Lebanon targeting Israel periodically.

Should Hezbollah target Israel, then the situation becomes extremely complex. Complete Middle East including powerful militias being unleashed, would, in worst case scenario, set the stage of dreaded Clash of Civilisation theory or next big war engulfing one and all. With oil production under threat it will lead to economic catastrophe for all economies of the world.

US & western powers do not wish use of chemical gases on Syrian populace opposing Prez Asad Syria but supported by west. Empirically, US has minimal credibility about its claims of Syria using chemical weapons. It claimed it had evidence against Saddam Hussein whilst attacking Iraq but it was never proven though Saddam was toppled leading to chaos in Iraq and rise of most dreaded terrorist organisation ISIS. Prez Trump, Prez Macron and PM May are facing severe crisis on domestic front and this being a ploy to divert attention is not ruled out.

Western Alliance has fortunately targeted only chemical weapons associated facilities through precision weapons thereby minimising collateral damage. It ensures situation is not aggravated wherein Russia is forced to get involved which could be extremely dangerous. Russia too would like to ensure Syrian regime and Prez Asad survive and western supported forces don’t become excessively powerful. Thus a stalemate suits all.

With Russia & Shia world on one side and US on the other. The ramifications would be extremely severe for US war in Afghanistan. With Pakistan already moving into Chinese cradle , US would have antagonised all neighbouring states capable of ensuring stable Afghanistan. That in all probability may not happen. Antagonised neighbours would like US to get struck in Afghanistan quagmire and suffer humiliation before pulling out as it happened in Vietnam. Unstable Afghanistan would be bad for India and its policy of cutting Pakistan to size by using Chahbar to access CAR and Afghanistan. Any setback for US in Afghanistan would help China to move in and occupy the vacuum much to the disadvantage of India and rest of the world.

India has friendly relations with all and has reasons for peaceful region. Our dependence on oil and huge populace working there. Neutral stand is the only option. India” s relations with all countries are very friendly, it should behind the scenes play as a moderator to prevent escalation.

Its very complex situation in Syria with potential of going out of control with disastrous ramifications. One hopes Prez Trump can control the situation through visionary statesmanship. Should he fail, US will suffer huge embarrassments in Middle East and Afghanistan. India has big stakes but little influence and not in a position to take sides. Our interest lies in reasonably stable region.

PAK-RUSSIA-CHINA NEXUS: OPPORTUNITY INDIA

2018-04-08T00:35:00.004-07:00

RUSSIA – PAKISTAN- CHINA NEXUS: OPPORTUNITY INDIA

Pakistan having been cornered by US & its allies on terror front is looking far options with the other camp, viz., China & Russia. Whereas China has been arming Pakistan defence forces including nuclear as counter weight & proxy against India, Russia seems to be new player in the game. Prez Trump coming down hard on China, Russia & Iran in addition to Pakistan is leading to new alignments in this part of region. With US looking for a way out of Afghanistan, others China, Russia, Iran, Pak and of course India wish to occupy the space to be vacated.

Russia, Iran & Pakistan would like US to be stuck in Afghanistan like Vietnam- draining its economy with no honourable exit. China is looking at strategic location & mineral wealth yet to be exploited in continental shelf of Afghanistan. Iran & Pak wish to increase influence due religious affinity across the border and strategic depth. India is looking at pro/neutral Afghanistan & Pak getting struck with terrorist organisations created by it. Pak needs deployment space for these venomous generation mentally trained to kill for Islam. Once Afghanistan stabilised, India would be next deployment ground for these terrorists. Present state of controlled violence in Afghanistan suits all as it ensures no single nation dominates Afghanistan to disadvantage of others. So its me or none.

India having moved some what away from Russia towards US for arms acquisitions, Pakistan and may be even Russia sees an opportunity in this changing scenario. Pakistan wants to acquire world class military hardware from Russia where China is lacking today. Tanks, helicopters and long range anti missile systems are on Pakistan wish list. With oil prices stabilising, Russia facing pressure from US and western Europe would be looking to reboot its economy. Should Pakistan be willing to purchase hardware in large quantities Russians are likely to oblige.

Question then arises, from where will Pakistan raise huge amounts for procurements? US cash hen is nearly dried up, Europe and other world bodies certainly won’t oblige and China won’t fund or will demand stringent conditions. Saudi Arabia has been magnanimous in the past but with Saudi economy under pressure and Saudi kingdom looking at opening up, may not be as magnanimous. In-house Pakistan economy is nearly broke and it can’t afford to purchase huge amount of weapons at non- subsidised rates.

Pakistan would be in a quandary to raise funds and should these be available, India must encourage or force it to procure more hardware as India itself is looking at mega spends in next few years. India must officially weakly protest but behind the scenes nudge Russia to sell whatever Pakistan’s wish list is, thereby ensuring its economic collapse. Imploding China would be huge disaster for China as CPEC/Gwader collapses taking down Chinese dreams of independence from vulnerable Sea Lines of Communication through Indian Ocean and its policy of strings of hostile basis around India collapses too.

Great opportunity for India to decimate Pakistan; diminish Chinese clot In Pakistan and Russia benefits economically. Iran; Afghanistan benefit immensely and India gets land route via Pakistan to Afghanistan and CAR.

Biggest challenge after Pakistan collapse would be managing Pakistan & terrorists network in Pakistan and radicalised youth which pose big threat. Saudi Arabia leading the way due to its moral authority of religious head of Sunni Islam to transform society to liberal, de denuclearised Pakistan would be win-win for mankind.

AFGHANISTAN: EMERGING POWER PLAY

2018-03-20T00:23:00.000-07:00

Afghanistan has been historically a nation which has never been enslaved. However others have repeatedly tried unsuccessfully however this struggle carries on. Nomadic and hardy tribals; extremely hostile terrain and weather conditions; underdeveloped but strategically located. It connects Asian region with rest of the western world by land route. Its location close to China & Russia makes it suitable encircling cum surveillance base. It reportedly has huge quantum of untapped strategic materials reserves.

Anyone establishing permanent base or stable & sovereign aligned Afghanistan is unacceptable to China/Russia/Pakistan and Iran. Thus super power play continues making Afghanistan into permanent battle ground with opponents changing.

None succeeds because Pakistan considers it to be its strategic depth on western side and if Indian influence goes up, Pakistan perceives its decimation. It encourages non state actors by providing safe sanctuaries, finances, training, motivation, arms, leadership and takes care of all other issues. Key to peace in Afghanistan lies with Pakistan. It uses terrorists motivated with Wahhabi ideology of Jihad & HOORS await in heaven. With China now sole financier cum all weather friend of Pakistan, it will only embolden Pak as Chinese don’t wish to see US/Indian influence in this region. Pakistan will continue fermenting trouble till Afghanistan has a regime loyal to it alone.

US unfortunately has managed to antagonise possible allies capable of countering unholy China-Pak nexus. Russia and Iran encircling Afghanistan from North and West having loyal tribes are interested in peaceful Afghanistan as restive tribals adversely impact neighbouring tribes. Not healthy sign as there is apprehension of terror spreading to such areas. US by default has only India on its side but reluctant to commit military forces due to domestic compulsions.

Line up in Afghanistan is US & reluctant India vs Pakistan nudged by China to ensure US fails & Indian influence minimised. Iran & Russia would be happy to see US being defeated due to animosity created by US. This new alignment of forces doesn’t augur well for Afghanistan to become functional peaceful nation in the near future

SMARTPOWER

2018-03-16T00:18:00.000-07:00

China uses a term known as CMP or Comprehensive Military Power. It implies totality of war waging resources including non military. In fact, its more relevant when it comes to deciding outcome of war.

Indian military hierarchy is thinking of two to two and half front war. Should that fructify, this would be horrible scenario and indicate disaster on all fronts of CMP. Nations must ensure if there is war, we fight as alliance against the adversary rather than adversaries combining to fight against us.

Indian thinkers, on the other hand, focus on quantities. Numbers of men and equipment. Its small part of the whole and would be decisive only in minor skirmishes or isolated, locally confined battles.

In terms of defence budget and quantity of military equipment Chinese have huge advantage, however, in terms of quality India does have an advantage to large extent. Border infrastructure and cutting edge technology like Cyber; AI, Space, stealth etc. India is a laggard.

There is this little understood or calculable factor called the SOFT POWER & SMART POWER. This is non aggressive invasion attacking the mind in a manner that victim doesn’t even comes to know he is under attack. In fact he is a willing partner as its WIN-WIN situation. Influence of US brands- foods; clothing; healthcare; movies computer games etc is worldwide. Apart from willing usage it brings with the concept of materialism; cultural, democracy,free society, dissent, crtisicing/challenging state policies. A thought which is alien to most cultures, thereby it threatens the cohesiveness of society. For Communists or other closed/dictatorial societies this posed biggest threat with high probability of implosion/ coup de tat for powers controlling the destiny of the nation.

India has massive edge in soft power sector. India’s cultural heritage; yog birthplace of major religions, foods, diaspora, cinema, IT might ,freedom of citizen and press; cricket and latest being ISA with HQ in India are pillars of soft power. Even Chinese pro government paper, Global Time, accepted the fact that India has been able to better exploit its soft power. Strengthening of diaspora and furthering our soft power is a strategy capable of delivering huge. Goodwill amongst masses even where state may be pro China but masses more comfortable with India. Even China has huge following for Yog/Bollywood.

Every democratic government and autocratic to some extent are sensitive to people’s sentiments. This where soft power plays crucial role of influencing minds of hostile power. Its lie terrorists sleeper cell getting activated just at the right time. Very potent weapon of future and few nations have yet harnessed or orchestrated this dimension. With cyber power almost exploding, capability of soft power gets further influenced. In fact, very interestingly, where autocratic governments try to block free information flow this offers credible option.

This force to be powerful must be invested as long term measure. Diaspora being focal point, our win-win ideas should slowly creep into minds of youth and others in the country of interest. This can be called SMART POWER, i.e., converting soft power through proper planning and prolonged implementation focussing on PEOPLE to be capable of influencing their governments.

EMERGING CHINESE THREAT

2018-03-06T23:09:00.001-08:00

Presidents Trump is quite clear in his approach, America First; if it antagonises its traditional allies , then so be it. Benevolence attitude since demise of Britain as dominant power has taxed US economy heavy and no previous President was bold enough to take such varying stand but Trump is different and being devoid of any baggage, he takes decisions best or US. Cutting down/reducing some strategic military ventures’ liability would burden many free loaders.

Rising China is desirous of occupying space being ceded by US. China has the financial might and slowly developing cutting edge military technologies by investing huge in its Academics & research establishment. Being quite ruthless its been stealing technologies from all over without caring for ethics and legalities. This has helped China to leap frog in military technology. Thus it has the potential to fill the void.

China’s rise is scaring most of the world nations used to international laws and treaties for its conduct and resolving disputes through consensus whereas Chinese prefer use force to ensure its right of way. Chinese rise is scary and causing quite a lot of discomfort amongst all. China sees India as biggest threat at regional level and has potential of creating powerful alliances to counter Chinese threat. It would aim to keep India embroiled with Pakistan and creating crisis or raking up irritants on regular basis, through proxies in South Asia.

China has its huge vulnerabilities too. Rogue nations of North Korea & Pakistan will keep on embarrassing China on its high moralistic ground whenever it takes. Tibet & Xingziang are restive and use of brute force attracts adverse opinion unacceptable to powerful nation. Islamic terror is creeping in spite of drastic measures initiated by China. Slowing economy; rising inflation; unemployment; demanding population and corruption are very severe problems which are going to grow in magnitude. Few genuine friends, unholy alliances and total mistrust hallmark of Chinese international relationships. Economically its blood sucker with interests rates that would cripple any economy.

Chinese have some peculiarities.

One, supremely egoistic with tremendous pride in its past and desires to dominate the world.

Second extremely patient during negotiations. In fact masters in using time to cause attrition on opponent by shear delays.

Thirdly its extremely sensitive to dissent and any threat to its unity. Tibet, Xingxiang or Islamic terror could dismember China. Its really scared of these forces.

Lastly it uses mind game and total resources, economic, blackmail, sanctions etc to force favourable decision without combat, war being last resort which is best avoided. AND IT RESPECTS STRENGTH.

India has plenty of options without confronting China directly militarily. Alliances with own modern and powerful defence forces is the key.

Indian economy is rising and Chinese slowing down. Any trade restriction would hurt China real bad adding to its unemployment and dissent amongst masses with severe ramifications.

Disturbed POK and Western Pakistan hampering CPEC. China is investing billions to access Gwadar and Middle East Oil so that its vulnerable SLOC/ Jugular at extremely vulnerable Malacca straight are taken care of to a large extent. India can ensure turbulence with Afghanistan/US/Iran aiding. Drag China to ICJ for construction activity in POK which is our area under illegal occupation of Pakistan.

Economically weak, impoverished and internally unstable Pakistan with radicals; mullahs and terrorists calling shots would be nightmare of Chinese ambitions of safe Gwader passage. With intelligent covert action it can be Chinese Vietnam experience.

HH Dalai Lama and Buddhist world over congregating in India from time to time and Buddhist tourist from Japan, Myanmar and other countries visiting monasteries and HH would be great pain for China. An issue with tremendous soft power potential dreaded by China. Budhists in Nepal and Myanmar must be encouraged to interact with Tibetian Buddhists, great soft power application with very positive ramifications. Annual international Buddhist meetings in India under tutelage of HH Dalai Lama would energise and unite this community.

SAARC nations economic integration on all soft power issues. China trying to control governments through economic lucrative offerings but masses more in harmony with India. This must be further strengthened. Masses are what matters.

Above measures demand proactive aggressive orientation by our strategic planners. The present tendency of Meekly Defensive approach is disastrous giving all options to adversary. Time for offensive defensive; use of mind; exploiting Chinese traits and using our massive soft power to deter China from any war.

Indian army must have adequate contingency plans to deter any localised skirmishes by quickly mobilising resources by having quality satellite/human intelligence to ensure timely and effective response.

In any hostile activity with Chinese, AIM SHOULD BE DETERRENCE. Loss of face is traumatic for Chinese establishment and it would avoid any confrontations where outcome would be a stalemate. It would resort to border skirmishes on plea of border demarcation issues or at best localised conflicts with threats of escalation wherein weal political leadership may loose its nerves.

On the seafront, navy is already into quality alliances with other regional navies and ensuring 24×7 monitoring of hostile shipping activity.

India can’t and must not fight 2/3 front war, its sure recipe for disaster. Our polity and diplomatic force has to ensure this does not happen. Domination at sea and deterrence on land and air/space/cyber and emerging frontiers adequately meets our defence needs of territorial integrity and safeguarding areas of interests. Nation must invest in AI and other emerging dual edge cutting technology. Soon technology and not brute military force will decide winning side, so combination of lean and thin army coupled with powerful technology must be the way ahead.

MANAGING INDO- PAKISTAN RELATIONSHIP BETTER

2018-02-27T06:29:00.000-08:00

Pakistan appears to be continuously troubling India in-spite of its unilateral goodwill gestures like Most favoured Nation status and being magnanimous in releasing water from Himalayan riparian rivers of Jammu & Kashmir. But Pakistan refuses to reciprocate positively.

Pakistan also has successfully managed to control escalation levels as deemed appropriate to its national interests with India being poor & apologetic responder in both in quality & quantum of response. Since its not being hit hard where it matters, Pakistan doesn’t care about human loss of life or en mass movement to deeper areas to avoid shelling.

What is that Pakistan achieves with zero sum behaviour?

In Pakistan Army calls the shots and its survival by being perceived by masses as the only saviour that can protect Pakistan from hostile India, thus its ensured no politician becomes powerful enough to change this perception. Radicalised army, mullahs indoctrination of illiterate youth provides enough raw material as canon fodder foolishly believing about HOORS awaiting in ZANNAT.

Pakistan has successfully leveraged US; Saudi Arabia;OPEC; Islamic countries oil wealth and of late Chinese for aid/loans/grants on various pretexts. But most are reluctant to fund Pakistan army any more, more so after US coming down hard though Chinese are trying to make up to some extent. But Chinese are known to be tough loan givers unlike Americans.

China has been trying to arm/finance Pakistan only to the extent that it keeps being a nuisance to India thereby bogging it down to regional level. Win win for both.

Internal situation in Pakistan is quite precarious. Extreme poverty; military flourishing but masses deprived, mullahs wealthy and powerful but youth unemployable being illiterate and unskilled. Panjabis domination is leading to resentment amongst all other provinces- Sind; FATA; Baluchistan; Pakistan Occupied Kashmir are rising in rebellion against Islamabad. Mullahs backed huge armed groupings not under control of any central authority keep using violence for own agendas. Its amazing how & why has Pakistan survived for so long with such mega problems? Army has exploited this fear of masses by ensuring weak polity and reasonably understanding judiciary.

Pakistan army has kept alive threat of nuclear weapon usage thereby ensuring neutralisation of conventional inferiority & decision dilemma for Indian planners. Since world is extremely sensitive of nuclear weapons, Pak believes India will not to go for full fledged conventional war. Pakistan has put India on defensive & embroiled in internal affairs of counter insurgency. Sorry state for any army. Master stroke by any standards.This carefully nurtured state of affairs has led to perception that Army is the only saviour. Pakistan grand strategists need to be commended for boxing into state of helplessness and our strategists failure to generate suitable befitting response.

Pakistan army for its survival must keep Kashmir & terror in J&K alive. This is the root cause of the Indo-Pak problem.

Does India has option or it must continue to bleed?

Line of control/Border trans border shelling was the norm in early 2000 till AB Vajpayee government put an end to it. Killings on civilians and uniformed personal on both sides with zero-sum results was stopped by statesman PM Vajpayee but seems to be restarting. It achieves nothing and not an option.

Pakistan army image and/or economy being hurt are the only ways to moderate army’s behaviour.

Covert action; water disruption; supporting dissenting elements in PO/Baluchistan; isolating Pakistan at world faura & strangulating terror funding simultaneously extending reciprocal development & technological assistance to ensure leverage. Development and border peace will ensure people’s change of perception about their army. More facilities to aggrieved families; educational scholarships to POK & Balochis; raking up human rights violations In Baluchistan; helping Balochis to take Pakistan army to International Court of Justice for missing masses.

Indian politicians and masses must cooperate with Government rather than demanding immediate retaliation.

Defeat Pakistan army through Mind game as propagated in Gita by driving wedge between masses & army. Pacify LC/Border and initiate indirect actions enumerated in this article.

Indian Society : Way ahead

2018-02-27T00:54:00.001-08:00

We are living in a very interesting but contradictory times. Tremendous materialistic progress but degraded values. Excessive greed, manipulation and little in terms of compassion or charity is order of the day. Some of the other major flaws are:-

* Little creativity but great in rote.

* Inadequate leadership but obedient followers.

* Blame Karmas/God for misfortune but refuse to change/alter oneself

* Criticise all but without giving intelligent alternative.

* Visit temples frequently with wish a TO DO bribing him minor gratification. Filthy temples with long lines of beggars but little effort by devotees to cleanse system. Excessive greed with little charity.

* Surrendering before stronger & expecting someone else- God/Government to help

* Oldest religion with tremendous inherited wisdom but worst in implementation.

* Goddesses controlling all virtues but women folk ill-treated

* Preach World is one family but little contribution towards society upliftment

* Believe in AATMA but treat other kinds of life forms with disdain

* Quote texts but few have mastered these

* Wise men in all fields of arts/science & warfare but study western experts.

*Though great heritage but inferiority complex leading to be defensive about own past till approved by others.

* Too concerned about others’ opinions without taking stand even where right.

* Excessive status quo and strong resistance to change things including thought Scientific temperament absent

* Age old rituals/suspicions/Gurus have predominant control in life

* Mastering mind taught by our rishis but few practise the art for exploiting potential to serve humanity

*Me, my family, my clan, my religion -that is priority. India enslaved for long periods of history & divisive tendencies still continue

* Too tolerant & forgiving. Don’t stand for right & forgive wrongdoers. Manipulators taken advantage of it.

*Excessive populace with excessive huge on all limited natural resources.

Our history is of divided, enslaved nation which suffering transforming from riches to poverty. This is still happening with strong internal/external forces augmenting each other. We need to initiate some of the measures given below, lest enslaved again.

*Get rich.

*Cleanliness of society, environments from known ills including filth and corruption.

* Scientific temper and creativity. Relearning our ancient wisdom; putting that through wisdom of modern means where available. Keep reinventing & value addition to Tog/Ayurveda/Meditation/Aartis in temples & other rituals

*Healthy positive debate based on knowledge & accepting dissenting views as part of knowledge evolution.

* Pride in our own Nation/society/wisdom/spirituality/diversity/festivities

* Celebrate life. Indians are known for enjoying life through dance/dramas/music/songs/festivals/religious trips/foods etc

* Shun negative media and political leadership dividing society

* Export trained human resource. Indian sub continent can not support unlimited population. Western nations and Russia in desperate need of skilled manpower.

* Encourage charity. Sikhs and Islam encourage charity in big way. We need to follow

* Eradicate caste cancer and associated ills.

* Care for nature by encouraging harmonious living.

Time has come for India to become strong as society as our other parameters are moving upwards like economy and military might. Weak/divided society encourages enslavement- must never happen again. Enough of slavery

INDIA : QUALITY VS QUANTITY

2017-06-17T23:05:00.000-07:00

India is in the process of developing at a rapid rate. However Priority appears to be quantity and not quality. Though quantity, too, is important but crucial is quality. Ideal mix of both is mandatory if we wish to reach our goals as enlightened; empowered, society; self confident and proud citizenry.

Quality control is demand of international markets as well as domestic consumer too demands quality at least cost. That is the big challenge and option is simple produce or perish. Our Government service providers, who are reasonably well paid or either incompetent or corrupt. Sole motive being creating wealth for self by any means, output/accountability is of in-consequence.

Our system in place is very elaborate with adequate checks and balances but for the delivery.

Puss are unproductive due labour unions refuse to reform or facilitate modern technology induction fearing loss of jobs in future. Defence research organisations; universities and institutes of excellence, with exception of miniscule minority have become mass mediocre product churners with little employability or competence.

India has maximum rules making life of honest entrepreneur near hellish. Everyone takes his cut but accountability who cares. Impure food products; buildings violating laws; schools hardly functional. When flaw comes to light, everyone gets away. If punished, things will improve. Governance with accountability and transparency and quick punishment for defaulters could significantly improve.

The crux lies in accountability of organisations and punishing guilty for failure. Assured perks then why bother about output. Accountability must be factored in and must be enforced urgently.

Schools and other institutes of learning have become profiteering ventures. Quality of teachers in government schools in Central India is extremely low. Intake may have been on basis of reservation or political pressure but its no excuse for destruction of future. Giving good marks either by teachers or through cheating facilitates jump to next level of learning and it carries on. Greatest causality is professional competence. Teachers and professors once get government job are assured of job safety, promotions and perks and of course making extra money by flaunting rules. There is need of periodic skill testing examinations by the department. One up testing should suffice with selective miniscule random testing by superiors in the departmental chain. Incompetence or cheating by superior must lead to his dismissal. Weak could be given extra coaching during breaks but must pass test to be retained in service. For higher levels, should be left to Principles/VC but with similar proviso. Any complaint be independently investigated, any case of cheating, heads role.

This will ensure teachers remain updated with latest developments in their subjects within and abroad as applicable. Retention of efficiency tests are conducted by Army to ensure crucial skills don’t become weak. Failure leads to serious consequences. Implementing in government departments, can have very positive ramifications in improving quality.

Whistle blowers or impacted masses reporting against government employees who are absent from duty or doing illegal work should be encouraged. This is possible with modern technology.

Accountability, competence and outstanding quality of end product must become key to human resource development. Failure implies, India will become economically developed but with serious social fissures with drastic ramifications leading to criminalisation of those unemployed

India must focus on quality and retention of efficiency of government employees. This could be within respective departments with miniscule check by higher authorities. Any complaints of failure or nepotism imply heavy penalty. Failure to perform must invite punishment for implementer and supervisee, thereby ensuring system delivering. Governance and quality of government employees will ensure balanced qualitative superior future India

KASHMIR ISSUE: ANOTHER VIEW

2017-06-14T23:57:00.000-07:00

Backdrop

Kashmir situation appears to be worsening with no solution in site. Government is meandering in its policy become almost directionless. Many experts are suggesting policies which failed to deliver in past with minor modifications.

Challenges

Wahhabi thought. Saudi TV; banned terror advocate Zakir Naik hate speeches aiming to change thinking of masses is biggest challenge facing state and Central government today. Perception or battle of hears and minds most crucial in agitated populace. India seems to be loosing this battle .This will have extremely serious consequences. ISIS flag, cheering Pakistan cricket team are minor issues when compared with loosing this battle. If India doesn’t fight Wahhabi idea battle aggressively and urgently, populace alienation is assured with devastating ramifications.

Separatists game plan. Exploit fear of masses by Indian /Hindu domination. Successfully in connivance with politicians evicted all Kashmiri Pandits and taken away their business and properties. Creating hurdles in their return by claiming will not permit separate township thus ensuring none returns due fear. Lots of traditional names of towns/religious places have already been changed

Localising problem. Sunni Muslims led by separatists are calling shots today. Unelected with no mass base but funded by Pakistan and own state appears non decisive. Giving these separatists all facilities but don’t curtail their venomous propaganda against India. Violence is confined to few districts and minority populace support in these areas only. Media makes it appear J&K is on the boil,its far from the truth. Urgent need to localise issue rather than hold complete state as hostage to happenings in and around Gagarin.

Geographical Peculiarities. Leh and Jammu are district regions is well known. But thaws not known is, in Kashmir region, huge populace staying between CL and Shamsabari massive mountain range are Gujars and Bakarwals. These people are somewhat nomadic in lifestyle but highly knowledgable about the terrain cum infiltration routes. Big assest in fighting Pak based infiltration and highly willing to support. Similarly people staying South of Pir Panjal in Jammu region are as good.

Vested Interests. Many organisations; political parties and NGOs have own agendas. Anti India stance is big vote catcher and assures financial support from across. This is damaging the psyche of youth and masses leading to enlarged anger against the state.

Ramifications

Aspiration of common man in valley are same as anywhere else. Government job; financial security; religious freedom and physical security including safe living environments.

Governance is big causality. Common man is biggest sucker and he is angry. Youth deprived of schooling; business suffers and terrorists keep scaring them and bombs ensure insecurity of life leading to psychosomatic diseases. This pent up anger rightly fuels mass anger further leading to despair and helplessness. Heaven on earth has become hell due manipulation of counter forces

Way Ahead

Past experience indicates economic packages etc. have little significance and talks cum outreach to segments are inconclusive due to the fact that Pakistan is calling shots through separatists who are being given undue importance by media/Governments in power. Own government is appeasing them inspire of well documented sins of these leaders.

Pakistan will continue to be our neighbour till it implodes or colonised by China. Its emotionally uncomfortable with rising India and happy Kashmir masses. Thus it will continue interfering till state is ineffective in governing. This is a fact of life and we need to live with it.

Radical plan which has the potential of deflating and solving Kashmir is suggested. Many will ridicule but have no better alternatives, therefore worth considering.

Relocate Capital. Srinagar has become centre of gravity of Sunni/Wahhabi/separatists activities. Being state Capital gives easy access to all facilities like connectivity; jobs; medical; education and all modern day luxuries. Relocate Capital to Non disturbed areas. Once this is done Pak/separatists agenda weakens by almost half.

Kashmiri Pandirs Return. Rehabilitate Kashmiri Pandits back in the valley. Whereas going back to ancestoral homes is not workable option new townships astride Mughal Road or south of Srinagar is doable and workable option.

Integrate. Ghetto mentality of Kashmiri Muslims is doing greatest damage to the community. Distrust of others is ruining idea of India in thier minds. Let all rules be applied uni formally and do away with special status. Fear psychosis created by some dynasties, nothing will happen as majority benefits. However, to allay fears of masses, this be implemented in Jammu; Leh and areas beyond Shamsabari. On seeing benefits, people will themselves demand its implementation.

Isolate. Srinagar and few disturbed districts around be isolated and put under martial law to check terror with force it needs for neutralisation. In about an years time, terrorism can be decimated and vanished by our security forces.

Elected Reps. MLAs and Panchayats along with SHOs can mobilise masses into fighting for their rights rather than being slaughtered by terrorists like cattle. Most of Government employees vanish during snow from border areas and elected reps are in cosiness of state Capital. Total disconnect with zero governance. Panchayats have done great job. Combination of these organs to ensure quality governance can tun the tide.

WHAM. Battle of hearts and minds is responsibility of state government and elected representatives. Grievance redressal and other issues of resolved in time along with development will ensure masses slowly align with state. Unfortunately, biggest problem is lowest in priority for state governments. Army is doing its bit but it has severe limitations. State government in Srinagar needs to make it top most priority.

Cyber and Mass Media. Internet and its applications have tremendous potential in mass mobilisation; awareness; spreading truth or grievances redressal. Pakistan has beaten India on this crucial front. Terrorists have used it with devastating consequences in recent past. Wahhabi are transmitting their ideas into Kashmiri homes. This is most dangerous and must be countered on priority.

Money Flow from Across. Choke money flow and many issue get resolved. For some reasons government has shut its eyes and paying price for ignoring.

Separatists. Isolate and expose these unelected. Big culprits, enjoying all perks and government facilities with own kids in government jobs or abroad but others being given money to pelt stones. Time to destroy these stooges and move them out of Valley to probably A & N Islands or Rajasthan jails.

Conclusion

Kashmir has reached state of hopelessness due to combined effort of some dynasties treating it as personal fiefdoms and Centre quietly accepting fait accompli. Many past solutions have failed and State is moving from bad to worse. Some radical suggestions have been made, capable of diffusing and eliminating alienation of masses with rest of India.

TERROR ATTACKS BY PAK ON MIL BASES

2016-12-12T23:49:00.000-08:00

Of late Pakistan based terror groups have been successfully attacking India security forces with impunity in close vicinity to LC and deep inside. Much too the anguish of common citizen, there appears to be very little in terms of qualitative response.

Army bases in spite of all possible defensive measures of perimeter fencing; wall; patrolling with adequate night surveillance capability have failed to deter these attacks inspire of some quality of intelligence available.

Pakistan army denies all responsibility inspire of some credible evidence having been provided in the past. In any case deniability of terror action is part of state policy to bleed India. Moot questions then arise are:-

Who is the enemy?

What does he aspire to achieve?

What is the manifestation shape?

How to defeat the threat?

Who is the enemy?

The enemy is a civilian who has been trained in all skills needed to fight armed enemy by indirect approach. Terrorist, called fidayeen or freedom fighter by the host country. All are Muslims, could belong to any country, having operated as part jihadi group somewhere ranging from Afghanistan to Mid East or even Africa. Highly motivated has developed expertise in using high technology; usage of explosives and latest gadgetry/weapons; physical and mental toughness in addition to basic military skills but is ruthless in brutality. Compassion and mercy not part of his personality domain. Fidayeen/suicide bombers or whatever one calls these terrorists; the idea first appeared during First World War. Japanese snipers would ties themselves on bamboo tops with some rations to snipe at approaching enemy to delay/cause causalities and impose caution whilst own troops got time to withdraw and prepare next defensive positions. Also when Gen Mc Arthur tanks landed on beaches, Jap soldiers would tie mines to their bodies and fall in front of the tank. Blowing tank and self in the bargain. Japanese pilots would take on high value combat missions flying in aircraft not yet fit to land. This is where the concept of assured death with mission execution came into being. The motivation behind suicidal mission was to defeat the enemy and fierce loyalty to the king. Terrorist have followed the same ideology, motivation being, since fighting holy war, will go to heaven post death.AM EXTREMELY HIGH MOTIVATION LEVEL

Terrorist is a radicalised Muslim primarily executing mission during what he believes is jihad, holy religious war for protection of Islam. He is supported by Pakistan Establishment. IDENTITY WISE ENEMY IS BLURRED. This is the enemy posing new kind of threat.

What does he Aspire to Achieve

Pakistan wants Kashmir to be its part; avenge 71 defeat wherein it’s lost East Pakistan- now Bangla Desh. Since militarily it’s not feasible, it has used terror to back up its strategy of annexing Kashmir. Terrorists from Al Qaida/Taliban/others from Muslim countries fighting in Mid east/Africa/misguided youths from Kashmir. Pakistan has cultivated a very powerful loyalist; media; opinion makers and others to shape environments for this cause. Quite a chunk of populace sympathises with local terror sirs as view them as standing against states might on their behalf It has invested heavily as its long term battle of attrition by using fake currency/drug money to fund terrorists activities.

Unrest in Valley is key to success to ensure issue kept high on emotional fire. Separatist; local terrorist leaders; supporters in Government service and forced allegiance from civil. Fear; blackmail; money are used as tools to keep unemployed youth charged with anti national activities. Using media; democracy; Human Rights; NGOs to its advantage, it has managed huge followers/sympathisers with simple agenda of Freedom.

India is paying very heavy price. Huge defence/police presence and expenditure; youth radicalising; development suffering; students loosing academic years; no industry coming in so no jobs. It has virtually become economic cesspool with negative returns whereas huge potential in tourism; cash crops; herbs.

Indian military might and democracy enabling force application and negotiation through elected representatives is thwarting Pakistan plans. Though huge security forces presence is hated by all but its security curtain against terrorists.

Pak has achieved to economically drain India by using currency printed in Pak; radicalised youth; bleeding Kashmir and everyone suffering. India is paying huge price. Pak feels at some point of time, mass frustration could become an uprising for Freedom from India thus Kashmir can cede. Its ultimate dream.

What is Modus operandi?

Post recruitment, he is trained at various camps imparting training in various disciplines. Indoctrination to reformat thought process to replace humane values with brutality and killing kafirs ; terrorising masses; suicide and great glory in dying followed by trip to heaven. Depending on skills achieved and level of motivation terrorist given responsibility for subsequent missions.

From training areas, he comes to HQ via staging areas for target briefing and mission execution plan. Satellite imagery and other intelligence available is shared during briefing. Necessary wherewithal needed is provisioned and handed over closer to crossing venue, which is generally from launch pads manned by border protection. Could spend few days to study security forces activity and familiarise with area close to border. Guidance coordination, if not done, would be done here.

After crossing, move with the help of GPS by night or during day in the guise depending on safety and prevalent security state. Guided from point to point by agents/guides till reach the target area. In the vicinity of target area, undertake extensive confirmatory reconnaissance of target area with the help of local guides. Generally stay in safe houses provided by sympathisers/cells.

Strike with surprise being most important factor. Early morning/sundown is most vulnerable times for bases as routine changing from day to night and vice a versa. Aim of terrorists is to cause maximum human damage and delay operations as much as possible by taking shelter behind safe areas/taking hostage. This gives advantage of mega media coverage adding to heroic value and vulnerability of defence forces. This over a period of time destroys people’s faith in the invincibility of the army.

How to defeat this threat?

Yes, new threat needs new approach to defeat. Existing ways will fail and continue to fail. Army traditionally fought with enemy’s army on the borders and fell back once political negotiations took place post the war.

That’s history. Army must be prepared to fight terrorist threat by understanding his way of fighting and evolve own new way to defeat him. Standing armies have set predictable, mundane almost lethargic routines and standardised procedures leaving /expecting very little diversion from set procedures. Getting up for complete army depends on reveille as per timings laid down in met tables. Routine follows thereafter. Set routine and excessive dependence on procedures virtually destroys initiative of soldier/junior leader. This is greatest weakness when faced with unpredictable situation demanding different response.

Terrorist, on the other hand having analysed army’s way exploits it fully. To beat him, think like a terrorist, then and only then can he be defeated.

Suggestions to defeat the new threat

· Train soldier to think like a terrorist

· Let soldiers plan operations as mock terrorists

· Teach soldiers guise; deception; befriending locals

· Intelligence gathering by mingling with civilians/shopkeepers

· Sleep by day; train body night operation with same efficiency

· Small team unconventional operations planning and execution

· Back to basics- jungle/mountain lore to understand signs/ noises

· Sniper firing – one shot assured kill at 2 kms

· Handling of explosives/IED/first aid

· Night/moon light operations with night devices

· Extremely high physical fitness and mental alertness

· Innovation

· Mental toughness to bear very high degree of discomfort.

· Interrogation

· Move out- be aggressive, only then victory assured. Dominate area around

· Defensive mentality is dangerous

· Integrated info sharing and cord destruction of terrorists by QRTs

· Confidence in weapon; equipment handling

· Surprise; stealth; deceit and minimal external support to execute mission

· Special precautions on days emotionally closer to jihadis.

Conclusion

New war, combining regular and terror is a fact of life. It has to be fought and defeated by analysing its vulnerability and exploiting the same. Procedural; routine need to be replaced with innovation ;small team operations by using aggression, guise, mixing /dominating areas around and sniper fire /others weapons/equipment to minimise collateral damage.

Break the routine, come out of zero mistakes and take operational risks. Go out, seek and destroy the terrorist by pre-empting by keeping sympathisers under watch with help of police and sources.

Defeating demands following new rules or keep facing defeat and sulking.

Choice is ours and nation won’t accept repeated failures. Rise and succeed. Live upto our expectations

REMONETISATION: EMERGENCE OF NEW INDIA

2016-12-01T22:13:00.003-08:00

Laurels from one and all and brickbats from opposition with in India post re (de)monetisation followed with both warning of severe ramifications. Black money; terror; hawala and associated activities like stone palters in valley; Naxal in Central India; sports illegal betting were all down stated GOI. Opposition on the other hand, claimed extreme hardships to rural and marginalised populace in the country. Both had some merit in what their rationale was.PM then spoke to Nation highlighting his aim of new; developed; corruption free India so bear hardship for sometimes. One and all, to the utter surprise of Media/politicians suddenly realised ground slipping from underneath their feet. Nation with PM Modi and Opposition in paralytic mode. Hereafter Opposition lost the script, though seasoned politicians decided to be silent on people friendly measure but few decided to take it head on. Conveying rationale, which common man understood was they had lost black money leading to sudden empathy for common man as effectively countered by PM that those shouting were the ones who had lost black money. Nation with PM, opposition cornered. All theatrics failed to get any sympathy from masses. It soon became corrupt vs. Honest. Opposition got a knockout punch with irrational behaviour decimated its credibility and unity in disarray.

People protesting loudest were those who lost huge wealth as no notice was given to convert unaccounted wealth. Media in spite of its best efforts to get angry inputs were very clearly told, much to the agony of reporters, yes problems of cash are there but willing to give PM days he has asked for. The wait for cash in the first week post remonetisation was agonising.

Some sulked but innovative shopkeeper very quickly learnt and accepted digital payments much to the chagrin of intellectual class. Thought to be dumbest but surprised most by shear survival instinct by turning threat into an opportunity.

Almost three weeks into remonetisation process, worst seem to be behind but nation continues to stand solidly behind PM. Some called it a masterstroke others a historical blunder and few others excellent idea but poorly implemented. Charisma; faith; hope for bright future- whatever one calls it, PM Modi stands much taller than any other leader, in fact as he grew tall others by stupidity became pygmies.

Midway through the process, something’s are very encouraging and clear.

India is ready for digitalised style of working. No hassles at all. Hardly literates picked up E-payments in less than an hour.

India is basically lethargic, quite contended wit status quo but faced with crisis, responds surprisingly well.

Corruption; arrogance of power and vulgar display of wealth by politicians is hated like plague. Establishment, which had taken bribes as its right for duty performance is again despised. People asking for part payment in black were a big pain for a salaried citizen. One had to live with it as no alternative option existed. It’s hoped bribes and component in blacks and arrogance/vulgar display of wealth would be history.

Silent, bloodless transformation which cannot be appreciated by all undergoing routine drudgery of life but for a student of history it’s probably greater in magnitude than French revolution.

Corrupt politicians; dynasties inheriting power by subjugating system converting democracy into feudalism was out of sync with aspiration of masses. Revolt was building up what was finding no expression till PM Modi understood and exploited it. Era of honest, responsive, accountable, transparent leadership has arrived. Either brace up or perish.

Crowds collected for rallies through paid contractors would be history. Times of crowd of lakhs may be history unless there is popular leadership.

Corruption and bribe free developed nation providing quality services and basic amenities to all its citizens with most services available online is the transformation from corrupt; filthy; creaking infra; agrarian; on responsive establishment and bribe for services. Mega change of massive scale and dimensions. Revolution which opposition failed to decipher but masses understood.

PM Modi has taken a great risk, making many enemies who will try to ensure failure of remonetisation by whatever means they can; people too may lose patience so the battle is a t crucial stage with scales slowly tilting in favour of PM but delicate balance demanding urgency in cash availability followed by genuine pro India reforms ensuring dignified, safe, empowered life and access to basic amenities to all citizens

FIDAYEEN ON ARMY POSTS: CHANGE OF STRATEGY

2016-11-30T06:20:00.000-08:00

Nagrota, Uri, Pathankot heavily protected defence establishment with intelligence inputs attacked by fidayeen leading to very heavy loss of life to trained military manpower. Very frustrating and shows defence forces in poor light to civilian and veteran-- getting mauled even when armed.

Fidayeen comes with fixed aim. Die whilst executing assigned mission causing maximum collateral damage both physical but more important psychological. If reports are to be believed, detailed intelligence about layout available with terrorists undoubtedly indicates someone from inside facilitating entry from vulnerable point; exploiting weaknesses of existing procedures (coming in army combat dress during early morning, thereby defeating orders to open fire only after positive identification. Early morning; foggy conditions force on soldier to wait for identifying before opening fire, which in some cases is too late. Excessive defensive orders have forced fear of non acceptance of causalities by default. By exploiting existing operational conditions, terrorist appears to be succeeding in both. Advantage Pak army.

Fatigue come complacency having set in over a period of time due repeated intelligence in puts is one of the major reasons for lethargic reactions.Non availability of bullet proof jackets; night vision devices and fear of own causalities could be a reason for local commanders to minimise venturing out, leading to defensive mindset. Disadvantage Indian Army

Fidayeen has forced defensive mindset amongst soldiers and anyone who defends is likely to lose more often and that’s exactly what’s happening. Advantage Pak army and terrorists

Nation has become so less sensitive to deaths- cash rewards; revenge and martyrdom with presence of ceremonial funeral; VIPs; Media during funeral. Thereafter its life as usual carries on. Army goes for massive artillery assaults leading to deaths/injuries across. Kill and counter kills.Pakistan looses terrorist and India looses trained manpower. Terrorists are mankind haters with little mercy but perceive fighting religious war so highly motivated. ZERO sum game.

Options for way ahead

Existing Bases

Existing bases lack physical/electronic and security thus making them vulnerable to terror attack. Electronic surveillance; boundary walls do add to physical security but give the soldier a defensive mindset. Be aggressive with tiered ambushes beyond perimeter with changing locations. Investing in local intelligence by keeping watch on doubtful integrity characters with police help will go a long way. Working out better surveillance on service providers

Shift from defensive to offensive defence at vulnerable bases. Provision of bullet proof jackets, night vision devices would be pre requisite. Modification of existing operating procedures regarding opening fire may be undertaken. Opening fire on positive identification becomes extremely difficult during poor visibility and gets aggravated when terrorist adorn our uniforms. This will ensure lesser casualty and terrorists being defeated beyond perimeter. Very interesting pattern of mosques/shrines within military stations/cantonment exist close to such areas where watch can be kept and intelligence gathered in very innocent manner. Areas around basis are populated by people with suspect loyalties. Unfortunately porters; shopkeepers and other service providers move freely within cants. Collection of information/inciting vulnerable through lure of money/other favours is very easily doable. Frisking of populace around and strict vigil on so called relatives and those moving within campus with comparative ease needs to be checked.

Electronic surveillance; boundary walls do add to physical security but give the soldier a defensive mindset. Be aggressive with tiered ambushes beyond perimeter with changing locations. Investing in local intelligence by keeping watch on doubtful integrity characters with police help will go a long way. Working out better surveillance on service providers

Rather than wait for terrorist to attack, need to seek and destroy him by venturing out to areas in the near vicinity simultaneously enhancing local intelligence through own/police resources. Become HUNTERS rather than HUNTED

Zero sum game

Carry on with zero sum game. India looses in long run though Pak too suffer but Pak looses comparatively moderate to Indian very heavy. It’s basically status quo but unimaginative way of fighting an action. Must be discarded state away.

Border Surveillance

Strengthen border security with all weather electronic surveillance. Terrain on border will enable few terrorists to cross over with Pak army providing fire support to divert attention. But could enhance bids foiled at border itself. Strict punishment against complacency and procedural modifications to have offensive content in guarding bases procedures. Move out of perimeter with multiple; location/pattern ambushes whilst enhancing local intelligence.

Snipers

Sniper shooters on borders to target command and control elements and permitting no move once infiltration takes place through post to deter enemy post from undertaking this activity. Good deterrent will help to some extent.

Covert Action

Covert action through own borders or Baluchistan ups the ante somewhat but has significant potential of diversion of assets. Both doable but implies upping the ante. Prisoners under death sentence would not mind undertaking this task. Come back post mission accomplishment and free to live. Extension of covert operations a win win situation but with its own risks and ramifications. Sleeper cells in Pak hinterland capable of retaliating on orders. Large number of border area people has relatives across who interact frequently and would be amenable to undertake intelligence and low quality missions and provides support to high quality missions. Liquidating terror heads based in Muzzafarabad easily doable in two night foot based operations.

Conclusion

Present modus operandi being followed by Indian army is proving to be ineffective, in fact disastrous. Giving massive advantage to Pakistan/terrorist must be discarded urgently. Modify existing procedures enabling intruder management in adverse weather by replacing on opening fire only after positive identification.

All service providers having access to unit campuses & locals in immediate vicinity must be kept under surveillance with police help.

Strengthen bases with physical/electronic capability and provide adequate wherewithal for night offensive posturing. Shift from HUNTED to HUNTER.

Border/LC rather than massive fir assaults go for sniper to kill selected command and control elements. Enhance electronic surveillance reinforcing with sub terrain sensors. Tunnels being new modus operandi, this threat needs to be countered adequately.

Covert operations up to Muzzafarabad, capital of POK or on western border via Baluchistan

INDIA A SPORTING NATION

2016-09-03T23:54:00.003-07:00

Rio Olympics are over and Indian contingent performance was below par. Officials and other parasites must have had great time on tax payers money. Sporting system is corrupt;inefficient;harsh on players and unaccountable;manned by paid employees with little incentives.End of the day- nothing changes.
With PM pushing for result oriented long term preparation, there is hope of improvement. PM has asked for suggestion and many good suggestions will come but the issue is who and how sincerely are these implemented. Some thought process on the same issue.
Existing Infrastructure
Sports infrastructure creation and subsequent maintenance is long term and costly affair and must be part of long term plan.
For the present existing infrastructure created out of GOI funds must be time shared with potential sportspersons. Defence forces have huge quality sports infra spread all over in army cantonments and training institutes.Similar must be the case with railways, Air India,BSF and other PSUs and clubs sponsored by these organisations for their themselves and family members.
Military schools;Sainik Schools; some other hostel based public schools have reasonably good infra.KV;Navodyas and PSU/services run schools have quality infrastructure. Similar some colleges/Universities too have such facilities.Sports academies of states;SAI too has high quality infra. These are islands of excellence with varying quality.These have capacity and scope atleast enhancing capacities by 3/4 times by better management of resource share.Very much doable but vested interests would impede sharing unless forced and some financial incentives assured.
PROPERLY MANAGED EXISTING INFRASTRUCTURE PROPERLY MANAGED MEETS IMMEDIATE NEEDS
Long Term Infrastructure
All Universities/Colleges/schools must have sports infrastructure based on local talent;season and possible fields of excellence. International level at universities; lower level at colleges and lowest at schools.
Sports complexes at district levels where excellence potential exist could be planned.
States must have international level facilities at the rate of one per crore of population in those fields where excellence potential exists.
Integrate defence and other PSUs in similar manner.Apex international level; second rung state level and basic school level.
Long term infra is desirable.Accessibility to all ensures healthy nation and sports excellence

Coaches
One of the crucial factors. Identify;nurture;motivate and help excel potential players peaking to fullest.
Indian coaches are better as less critical,understand better and greater comfort level with players.Contract coaches from abroad aim at events related success.Why should they be contributing to our success.
Defence forces and others do have very good qulaity coaches passionate about excellence performance.With exposure to best practises in moden sporting world have potential to be world beaters.No doubt about their capabilities.
Players having excelled and past their prime but passionate could be ideal coaches.International exposure; skills needed;physical regimen since experienced can be best implemented.
The Talent: Catch them young
Most important is availability of correct raw material at an early stage.
In our country due to historical reasons;food habits and geographical locations, different regions provide talent as nurtured by the region. This must be tapped.To examplify- Bihari has heavy body being rice eater, makes good wrestler or weight lifter but poor agility skill/physical fitness demanding events. Adivasi from Jharkand is outstanging hockey bit poor wrestler.Very important this is identified and explited.Army has an excellent dadt base, even SAI should be having it.
School Class 1to 5 Emphasis on mental and physical exposure through yoga and sports popular in local area( applicable to non cities) .Will be possible to identify raw potential for further nurturing.
Schools: Class 6 onwards Potential kids be inducted into Sainik/Military/Navodyas and other schools having quality infrastructure.This will ensure nurturing of talent and confirmation/negation of raw material identified earlier.
Youth Sportspersons Having completed basic education and talent reasonably well established and nurtured, comes the crucial stage of moving towards excellence.Government job or way to government job ensures financial safety and accessibility to quality infrastructure.Youth wishing further studies join colleges/universities; defence forces NDA/IMA/OTA or educationally low boy sports company or sports academies and carry on for about four years.
Incentives Sports person must get huge advantage for admission at the next stage.Infact seats must be reserved for sporting talent. Coaching and other expenditure too could be partially subsidised.
Non School goers/late bloomers Some may not join formal schooling due to financial/other constrains and some may be late bloomers.Such persons get opportunity during district or college open competitions.
Sports Selection Indians excel in individual and mind games but perform poorly in physically demanding and team games. Vegetarians or ego but that is our waterloo. Focus should be on such games only as competition less and our forte
Management. Must be kept away from formal beaucratic sporting bodies.Everyone associated with running must have excelled in sports at state level.For adminstration; running volunteers fro veterand on nomival perks would be avaiable in plenty.Financial empowerment mandatory. Apart from basic maintenance funds other should be linked with performance.Excel and be wealthy. Corporate could take on as part of CSR
Finances State government must create infra at dist/state level with support from Centre.BCCI/Corporate through CSR must channelise funds for good cause.
Popularity Obsession with cricket must cease. It may be money delivering golden hen for BCCI and Media but its also responsible for ruining Indian sports culture.Hockey and football are receding.This is also ruining health as youth has lost interest in physically demanding games
Summary of suggestions and Way ahead
Map sports infra at national level and enhance accessibility by time sharing
Own passionate coaches be players having excelled at various levels
Schools/college/universities/Dist/states/Defence/PSU/SAI organise, identify,nurture talent through open competitions with good financial incentives.
Dist/state must ensure villagers and other talent not coming through formal education get an exposure.
Conduct could be rested with army in peace stations.Have the wherewithal including manpower
Policy to facilitate sports excellence and education.
Management delinked from vested interests.Accountability with timelines targets coinciding with Olympics
Long term infra expansion
Media coverage on non cricket sports.

WAR IN KASHMIR VALLEY: CHANGE OF STRATEGY

2016-02-24T00:13:00.000-08:00

Indian Army has been losing very high number of young officers in the undeclared/proxy war in Kashmir Valley. Matter of deep concern as the bargain is killing a few terrorists at the cost of young officers. It’s a very poor bargain indeed.

During British rule of India, army followed a dictum called “last man last round”, came to be known as “not an inch of territory to be lost”. This implied army troops deployed on a piece of ground are not to retreat and die if attacked and even if odds are heavily stacked against the force. Similarly for piece of ground to be held and defended against an assaulting enemy, it needs tactical considerations and not emotional logic.

Over a period of time, armies realising that it costs heavy to train officers and men have been modifying this dictum. Israel, surrounded by maximum enemies was the first one to review and wisely so. It was changed to live another day to fight back rather than get slaughtered in hopeless situation. No wonder, it suffers least causalities in spite of very heavy violence almost on daily basis.

Fishermen fishing in our waters around Andaman and Nicobar Islands don’t mind being arrested by our security forces as they are assured of decent treatment in jails till courts pronounce judgement which is very liberal. Anyone caught by others is not arrested but knuckle cracking and sending off is the treatment. Rightly these people dread others but don’t mind stealing our fish.

Are we soft/too humane are shear incompetent to implement law with the severity it demands or nation doesn’t care for the economic costs being forced upon or is the Government of the day scared of harsh measures due to vocal but incompetent media catering more for TRPs rather than truthful reporting. Probably all combined make us a soft state incapable of tough decisions.

Keeping in view the worsening security situation which would become worse with militant Islam raising its ugly head on our borders, it’s time for review. Situation becomes worse when locals start to side the terrorists when cornered by security forces and start to act as human shields and on collateral damage taking place, every one without accountability, wants his 5 seconds of fame by quoting numerous laws and rights though it’s not applicable when terrorists undertake terror acts killing unarmed civilians. Civilians providing human shields emboldens other waiting on the other side and gives adequate munitions to all divisive forces within and foreign.

When terrorists are surrounded, hiding and firing-why should they be attacked? Wear them out and use maximum force after evicting civilians being used as hostages. Some refuse to come out use appropriate force. This will instill fear amongst terrorist and their supporters

Keeping the above in view, it may be desirable to review basic tactics with following guidelines

Own/civilian causalities are avoided.

Time be used as force multiplier to own advantage- wear out/no hurry

Use technology rather than physical force

Let NGOs/political leaders (those who chest beat post an encounter) go in and motivate terrorists to surrender. Also involve local Maulavi/village seniors to negotiate

Use fire; smoke and stun grenades to kill/evict holed up terrorists

Media be kept away during conduct and video be released during operational press conference

This approach will be a win – win for security forces and the nation, only looser will be terrorists and Pak, Isn’t that all we wish

DEVELOPING NEW INDIAN ETHOS

2015-12-14T06:38:00.001-08:00

We Indians are experts in commenting on every issue on this earth without any research/investigation and do it so very convincingly. Reading is certainly NO but active participation is yes.

New ideas No but our claim to inventing almost everything including limb transplant and aeroplane is well known, being of recent origin needs no elaboration.

Yog, Ayurveda, herbal knowledge, zero, ship building, agriculture, town planning, arts and crafts, astronomy or palmistry were reasonably well developed once upon a time probably thousands of years back. However modern contribution has been next to nil.

Masterpiece Bhagwat Gita was too conceived thousands of years ago, far ahead of its times. But its follow up in terms of scientific evaluations or thought evolution has been minimal.

Our institutes of excellence IIT; IIM; IISC and host of research institutes have nothing original to contribute. Even our so called excellent software industry has very little to talk of any path breaking contributions.

We have had a super powerful brain in statecraft, Chankya who guided rise of Golden period of Indian history fighting divisive forces having own agendas of greed for power and scheming as in any dynasty. However our intellectuals feel proud in quoting Sun Zhu or Machiavelli but not our own wise man. His knowledge on statecraft is far superior to anyone else.

The Indian Defence forces are very comfortable and proud of displaying history where British conquered India or Indian soldiers fought all over for Colonial masters but magnificent victory of 1971 war is hardly finds place of pride which any other army would die far.

Indian Army carrying on with colonial dresses suited for European climate even after almost 70 years of independence shows our low quality of mental/creative thinking and quite happy with status quo. Foolishly defend these stupid traditions with all logic(?) and might. No wonder its being treated shabbily by intellectuals.

There is very little in terms of genuine though/ideas emerging from out numerous institutes. Quantity huge quality very poor. Engineering; management, medical; dental and disciplines of new fields are mushrooming but end product unemployable due to poor academic staff and outdated syllabi. Even primary school education quality wise is by and large substandard. Teachers are hardly literate and once in the job there is little accountability leading to chaos in school education. Employees are exceedingly well paid but skills very poor especially in towns/rural areas. Focus on buildings and parameters spelt out by regulations but no one appears to care about end product. Passing with high grades is ensured by all means including mass cheating.

We have outstanding orders /guidelines to ensure very high quality of everything; however system expected to ensure compliance has been compromised through quality compensated by money paid to regulators.

All services are on the verge of decay- transportation; telecommunication; hospitals; schools; roads; rivers; air and filth all around. People in power have isolated themselves by ensuring dedicated service for self and family members. Political leadership and babudom has a safety net which enables world class service at the tax payer’s money. Farmers and poor are under nourished; without house, toilets, water, electricity, jobs, debt ridden being forced to commit suicide even whilst working throughout the year but draught/poor crop implies deaths.

Money is not the problem. Enough has been released and continues to be released but delivery is non-existent. What if any is the way out?

Accountability of regulators at all levels especially with those who are interface of the government delivery or what some call the last leg

Merit getting its due. Teachers/professors and all others in senior posts either perform or side-lined. Those of SC/ST be given extra coaching to come up to desired merit level and not the easier way out of scaled down standards. Policy makers are doing great disservice to nation and community.

People must participate in governance and development rather than elections alone by planning and ensuring delivery of services even at village/block level.

Research in new frontiers or reverse engineering as being done in China and some other countries must be heavily rewarded. New ideas; though evolution through intellectual discussion and research on our ancient wisdom proven by modern scientific means must become priority. Indianisation of dress; thought; culture and heritage will ensure superiority complex which is so profound in Japan/China but lacking in India. Once done lots of ills will fall in place and gradually vanish

INDIA MUST LEAD ANTI IS FORCES

2015-12-08T06:49:00.000-08:00

IS has become the biggest threat to the world today. Due to numerous reasons it has evolved rather quickly; attracted youth from all over and has developed capability to strike almost anywhere. Using technology and people from Europe/US it has become an idea that cannot be bombed into oblivion. Very intelligently it’s trapping the world through provocations of horrendous killings. Many Muslim believers view it as a saviour capable of taking on the might of the world out to destroy Islam and its values. Being Sharia advocates/supported by Saudi Arabia, IS probably will never be short of funds and manpower because of its power to attract new recruits from all over. Surprisingly some of the new recruits are not poor; impoverished or from lower strata but are educated with western knowledge and staying there for quite sometimes. Muslims like other migrants have left their homelands for better future mostly in non-Islamic countries. Having got disenchanted after enjoying the world they aspired for suddenly the all-powerful call of Islam is motivating reverse movement. Dangerous; dilemma; disenchantment; inferiority complex or whatever one calls it. As things stand today, call of Islam is proving to be more powerful than everything else west has to offer.

World powers have combined their might with best weapon systems and modern technology to destroy IS in area between Syria and Iraq being called the Levant by the rulers of this self-proclaimed state. In all probabilities, this may not succeed in destroying the pull of Islam though would result in destruction to IS resources and loss of life and killing of some leaders.

Why is the world helpless against Islamic terror? The most reasonable answer is it’s trying to destroy a powerful idea expanding in the minds of Islam believers across national frontiers using all means including cyber; local populace; sleeper cells; mosques; religious teachers etc. This strategy can never succeed- can’t destroy an idea with weapons or physical threat on an idea in the mind. No way – will fail with disastrous ramifications.

India can lead the world to take on IS in dual triple attack. First is the physical attack. This is already underway. Any serious collateral damage could have devastating ramifications.

Second battle has to be fought on economic front by choking finances. Saudis hold the key with support from local countries wishing to contain Shias. US and west can minimise should and as and when they so decide. Doable but Saudis falling in line would be gigantic task due to its internal Wahhabi pressures.

Third is the mind space. The philosophy being propagated by IS is not being questioned and its spreading like wild fire. India has the potential to fight this battle with resources at its command. Indian strengths:

Multi religious society living in harmony for ages’

Soft versions of Islam. Sufism practised in J&K teaches tolerance and pious life through music and living

Sunnis; Shias and all variants of Islam live and practise faith much better than Islamic nations.

All religions flourishing in India and economically progressing

Richness of culture through fusion of music, foods, culture, literature, thought, cinema, fashion and every aspect of life.

Women scaling heights of excellence in all professional fields happening here. Empowerment of women is in India.

Free will of expression. Muslim women in burqas; jeans and whatever they wish to wear but so are many Hindu women following same norms of dress code

Indian schools, government aided Madrassa and Missionary run Convents all running concurrently. We choose notwithstanding religious back ground.

Celebrations of life through festivities. Majority celebrates all festivals when it comes to good things of shopping; lighting houses; bursting crackers or sharing foods.

You have Haj; we do Char dhams, Kailas Mansarovar, Amarnath yatra. So very common.

You sing songs in praise of Allah’s, so do we. Bhajans and aarti have the same spirit

Most visit Sufi shrines of Pirs and temples notwithstanding religion to offer prayers and misery mitigation.

This soft version of Islam as being practised in India today is the way forward for all.

All family is one world- basic approach to life as propounded by India has the most powerful message for one and all.

Yog and our new age gurus talk of humanity with certain common values and practise of religion specific rituals. Beautifully harmonised

The battle of minds is difficult and long but would contribute seventy per cent towards demagnetising false Islamic propaganda being spread by radicals. It’s doable and only recipe for long term success.

India has the potential and wherewith all to lead the counter against radical Islam and time to take it on now when threat is still away from our borders. But it may not be for too long. Time to start now initially from within and then lead the World.

MAKE A DIFFERENCE(MAD) TRIAD: GREAT INDAIN TRADITION

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Indian society from good old times has had a very well laid out responsibility division. Surprisingly it’s very fair, time tested and charity from home. Three generations exist concurrently in any family. The aged; the new born and the earner.

The earner helps parents and grandparents in their old age with emotional support and dignified living. The basic need is emotional- making them feel wanted; respecting their views and some time and of course health related issues which can be financially draining at times. The elderlies can be good stress busters and share lots of sweet memories giving immense joy. This is what the modern western management experts are calling quality time. We always had it but it’s vanishing in most of the families.

The younger generation needs caring, value imparting, narrating tales and counselling, friend; partner in joyful fooling around till children are small. As they grow up, become more self-dependent and can look after themselves, their need continuum keeps changing. Crucial growing up years need close supervision and value infusion, if done properly; internal personality becomes strong enough to face any challenge later in life. Grandparents can contribute very immensely as parents are too busy with cores of life. The growing up years and kids antiques are what one can call bliss and joy. The bond which gets developed is a lifetime joy; this is what the experts from west are calling quality time.

Small kids glued to I pads/TV is routine in most of urban families. Rather than spend time playing with the child give him I- pad and he is busy with games and cartoons enabling parents to do their jobs. At times it may be chat on what’s app or responding on facebook. Elderlies too glued to TV seeing religious channels and serials throughout the day to pass time. This is perhaps one of the most regressive activities leading to brain decay cum body atrophy and life style diseases.

Crèches and old age is the most serious symptom of this disease, where all three generations have split and suffering helplessly. Kids are being abused when they need to be showered with love. No servants/nanny’s’ how well qualified can replace grandparents caring capacity. Elderlies relocated to old age homes are a pathetic state. Scene is akin to crèche, being looked after by paid staff, where is the question of care and love. One feels sad to see parents who struggled and have struggle-tales worth that of hero, but rotting as helpless sick people waiting daily for their turn to take off for the next world. Pathetic sight.

We copied the stupid idea of materialistic greedy ethos and are chasing money at the cost of enjoying the beautiful journey of life. Acquiring bigger, costlier and /or prestigious – houses; cars; white goods; mobiles; schools; tours; restaurants leading to immense stress and strain devastatingly impacting finances, relationships and health.

Aping west blindly is a folly. Science of Western world and values of India give humanity the best way forward. All of us hurling into this state with devastating consequences need to pause and reconsider and if convinced undertake midcourse correction.