The Third Eye

Technical Analysis for Nifty

noreply@blogger.com (AAR VEE) — Sun, 18 Mar 2012 06:35:00 +0000

After a sustained upmove since 4530 levels , a correction has set in from short term top at 5630 . We try to analyze whether the correction will extend further in short term? and what's in store trading further ? Below are some charts and conclusions -

1. Indicators :

Both the Weekly and Daily TF indicates further downside.

2. Moving Averages :

The 5week ema signals for a weak bias till remains below 5450.

3. F & O Data :

The Futures data indicates of Short build up last week and Option data signals of further slide may be even below 5200 levels.

4. Volumes :

The 10 d volume profile indicates of downside to continue till closes above apprx. 5365 levels as of now.

5. Elliott Wave Analysis :

One of the probable EW counts that looks good in the Larger Time Frame is that we still are in a Bear Market and the upmove since 4530 level was the last leg of an X wave (in Expanded Flat) after the Double Zigzag since 6338 .

The above count is more clear on Weekly charts where noise is less.

The Count since 4532 may be as follows in 5 waves up-

The Count since short term top of 5630 may be as follows-

The Alternate count in larger TF may be the Bear Market ending at 4530 levels and new impulse up which is being corrected now. The Fibo. chart shows probable targets for counts .

Conclusions :

1. The Short term looks tilted towards downside positionally with targets of 5150 and 5050 appx.

2. 5365 can be used as SAR for positional trading.

3. The Bias changes on close above 5450 and can be treated as Point of Invalidation of the analysis as of now.

4. The downside may extend further as per probabale EW count in Medium Term ,so be cautious with Buying on Dips.

5. A word of caution on the Golden Cross of 50-200dma making traders overtly bullish . Check the chart below for a whipsaw in 2004. Nothing is cast in stone in these markets.

Have a Profitable Trading Time ahead !!!

Nature Care

noreply@blogger.com (AAR VEE) — Sat, 10 Mar 2012 18:31:00 +0000

Received the interesting content below in a forwarded mail :-

CARROTS : EYES

Slice a carrot and it looks just like an eye, right down to the pattern of the iris. Its a clear clue to the importance this everyday veg has for vision. Carrots get their orange colour from a plant chemical called betacarotene, which reduces the risk of developing cataracts. The chemical also protects against macular degeneration an age-related sight problem that affects one in four over-65s. It is a common cause of blindness . But popping a betacarotene pill doesnt have the same effect, say scientists at Johns Hopkins Hospital in Baltimore

WALNUT : BRAIN

The gnarled folds of a walnut mimic the appearance of a human brain and provide a clue to the benefits. Walnuts are the only nuts which contain significant amounts of omega-3 fatty acids. They may also help head off dementia. An American study found that walnut extract broke down the protein-based plaques associated with Alzheimers disease. Researchers at Tufts University in Boston found walnuts reversed some signs of brain ageing in rats. Dr James Joseph, who headed the study, said walnuts also appear to enhance signalling within the brain and encourage new messaging links between brain cells.

TOMATO : HEART

A tomato is red and usually has four chambers, just like our heart. Tomatoes are also a great source of lycopene, a plant chemical that reduces the risk of heart disease and several cancers. The Womens Health Study , an American research programme which tracks the health of 40,000 women found women with the highest blood levels of lycopene had 30 per cent less heart disease than women who had very little lycopene. Lab experiments have also shown that lycopene helps counter the effect of unhealthy LDL cholesterol. One Canadian study, published in the journal Experimental Biology and Medicine, said there was convincing evidence that lycopene prevented coronary heart disease.

GRAPES : LUNGS

OUR lungs are made up of branches of ever-smaller airways that finish up with tiny bunches of tissue called alveoli. These structures, which resemble bunches of grapes, allow oxygen to pass from the lungs to the blood stream. One reason that very premature babies struggle to survive is that these alveoli do not begin to form until week 23 or 24 of pregnancy. A diet high in fresh fruit, such as grapes, has been shown to reduce the risk of lung cancer and emphysema. Grape seeds also contain a chemical called proanthocyanidin, which appears to reduce the severity of asthma triggered by allergy.

CHEESE : BONES

A nice holey cheese, like Emmenthal, is not just good for your bones, it even resembles their internal structure. And like most cheeses, it is a rich source of calcium, a vital ingredient for strong bones and reducing the risk of osteoporosis later in life. Together with another mineral called phosphate, it provides the main strength in bones but also helps to power muscles. Getting enough calcium in the diet during childhood is crucial for strong bones. A study at Columbia University in New York showed teens who increased calcium intake from 800mg a day to 1200mg equal to an extra two slices of cheddar - boosted their bone density by six per cent.

GINGER : STOMACH

Root ginger, commonly sold in supermarkets, often looks just like the stomach. So its interesting that one of its biggest benefits is aiding digestion. The Chinese have been using it for over 2,000 years to calm the stomach and cure nausea, while it is also a popular remedy for motion sickness. But the benefits could go much further. Tests on mice at the University of Minnesota found injecting the chemical that gives ginger its flavour slowed down the growth rate of bowel tumours.

BANANA : SMILE

Cheer yourself up and put a smile on your face by eating a banana. The popular fruit contains a protein called tryptophan. Once it has been digested, tryptophan then gets converted in a chemical neurotransmitter called serotonin. This is one of the most important mood-regulating chemicals in the brain and most anti-depressant drugs work by adjusting levels of serotonin production. Higher levels are associated with better moods.

MUSHROOM : EAR

Slice a mushroom in half and it resembles the shape of the human ear. And guess what? Adding it to your cooking could actually improve your hearing. Thats because mushrooms are one of the few foods in our diet that contain vitamin D. This particular vitamin is important for healthy bones, even the tiny ones in the ear that transmit sound to the brain.

BROCCOLI : CANCER

Close-up, the tiny green tips on a broccoli head look like hundreds of cancer cells. Now scientists know this disease-busting veg can play a crucial role in preventing the disease. Last year, a team of researchers at the US National Cancer Institute found just a weekly serving of broccoli was enough to reduce the risk of prostate cancer by 45 per cent.

Holi Greetings To All !!!

noreply@blogger.com (AAR VEE) — Wed, 07 Mar 2012 18:06:00 +0000

Technical Analysis for Nifty

noreply@blogger.com (AAR VEE) — Sun, 05 Feb 2012 08:10:00 +0000

Last Post concluded a probable breach of 200dma and the Channel break . Now what lies further in Short Term is analyzed in the charts below -

1. Monthly ,Weekly and Daily Charts ( Indicators ,Trendlines, Moving Averages ) :

2. Elliott Wave Analysis :

3. Fibonacci Extension Targets :

4. Liquidity : ( FII Data and Rupee Movement ) :

5. Option Data :

6. Wolfe Wave Pattern :

7. Volume Profile ( 10d ) :

Conclusions :

1. Trend is firmly UP in all Time Frames . No use going against the Trend .

2. A Near Term Top may come this week in 5385-5450 range apprx. ( Fibo. and EW Channel top )

3. Correction may be limited to 5200-5150 level only in the near term. ( Option data ,200dma ,Channel Top retrace in weekly ,daily )

4. Higher Targets may unfold later after correction. ( Wolfe Wave, EW wave 5).

5. Reversal in Short Term only below 5050 as of now (10d profile) .

6. The Markets may show bullishness now upto the runup to Byelection results or the Budget . ( Its not based on any Time analysis) .

Make the 'Trend' your Friend and Enjoy Trading !!!

Elliott Wave Update for Nifty

noreply@blogger.com (AAR VEE) — Sat, 21 Jan 2012 12:18:00 +0000

The cross of 5025 and close above it has brought me back to the planning table . The EW perspective of the Basic Counts , that of a Third zigzag in progress and we are in the wave B of that , remains as it is . Below are some Charts , Observations and Conclusions for the Short Term EW update-

The wave B now is forming an Expanded Flat , where the 'b-B' wave is an irregular that goes below that of A and 'c-B' will terminate beyond the start of 'a-B'.

1. The Expanded Flat in a simple line diagram looks like this-

2. Wave B as shown in the Daily chart below, will now end beyond 5099.

3. Probable Target for the upmove in the short term may be as below .

4. The c-B has started from the low of 4532 and may be moving in 5 waves as below.

Conclusions :

1. The broader conclusions remain the same as in last Post , please refer to them -
Click Here

2. The subwaves count for c-B have changed along with Pattern for wave B from the last post . Now we Target above 5200 in the Short Term .

As per EWI - In expanded flats, wave B of the 3-3-5 pattern terminates beyond the starting level of wave A, and wave C ends more substantially beyond the ending level of wave A.

The important word to mark in the above sentence is ' substantially' . We can now expect and keep open the probability of a close above 200dma and may be the break of the downtrendline since 6338 , Nov.10, to make everyone bullish. ( thats the work of a wave B - the 'sucker wave', to make one a believer and then suck , here by making one 'buy on dips' ).

3. The fall after c-B whenver ends ( not far away ) will be more vicious and swift now and will Target a new low below the 4530 level.

Technical Analysis for Nifty

noreply@blogger.com (AAR VEE) — Sun, 15 Jan 2012 05:42:00 +0000

The Markets have moved up in last two weeks since the start of 2012. There are Bullish signals all over. Some questions like - Have we bottomed out? Is this rally sustainable ? How far can we move ahead? What's the signal of end of this upmove? etc, may be answered by combination of Technical Methods. Below are some self explanatory charts with observations -

1. Indicators :

2. Pattern :

3. Moving Averages :

4. Fibonacci Levels :

5. Options Data :

6. FII Data :

7. Elliott Wave Analysis :

Conclusions :

1. All the charts above have a Bullish undertone except EW which is suggesting either a Top made or one nearby .

This Rally is Non Trending ,Corrective in nature ,as the Larger Trend remains Down.

2. We may go at best to 4950-5025 levels, if not already topped out near 4900 in the last session . Close below 4700 may bring a new Low now.

3. Caution against enthusiasm for holding Longs , Buying on Dips or getting into New Investment mode . Traders should use the Rally to either get out of longs and Investors should wait on sidelines for the signals for any Bullish turnaround to appear. Few such signals for those interested in new Investments have been given in previous Posts.

4. 4780 is the key level to watch . Breach of this level in Trading may signal the end of this Upmove and then the Markets will become 'Sell on Rise' Positionally.

Have a Profitable Trading Ahead !!!

Nifty in 2012 . Is it the 'CheckMate' Year ??

noreply@blogger.com (AAR VEE) — Sun, 01 Jan 2012 10:54:00 +0000

Please read this Post in continuation with the Broader perspective shared at the last Analytical Write up - CLICK HERE , where the Bearish Insight was presented. As I was going through the Year end data and charts , few more things corelating with that view caught 'The Third Eye' .

1. Symmetry in Charts :

Leonardo Fibonacci , W.D. Gann , R.N Elliott , Harmonic pattern Traders and for that matter all great Scientists and Artists believed and based their works in Symmetry of some kind , Cycles , its repetition etc .

Above is a simple chart with the interpretation of a Fast Fall to complete the Symmetry as I see it.

Though I have successfully traded many Symmetries and Fractals on the charts without applying any Technical Analysis , this may be just my manifestation of the Bearish view I believe in now .

2. Moving Averages and Pivot Points :

he 50-200dma Bearish Death Cross and it's implications is well known . We are now also below the 200 week Moving Average ( not 200dma its 200wma ) after whipsawing it few times on closing basis (this has been brought to notice in a previous post also ). Now appx. 4850 is the 200 wma . No sustainable Bullishness expected till consistent
trading above this mark.

Also as you can see in the chart , we have broken the previous 2 year low Pivot along with the 200wma and now closed below it again . Its a sign of weakness and has Historical Bearish results whenever Market does so.

3. Elliott Wave Analysis :

EW is used by me to determine the Larger Trend on Daily charts and as the Reference Posts on the sidebar of the Blog suggests , I have a Bearish take on it .

The Chart above represents the most Bearish Probable count , that of the start of C wave of the third zigzag in 5 subwave structure down ( I have few valid alternate counts also that I am tracking as , still in wave B of the third zigzag , Triangle in the wave B , Ending Diagonal after XX , etc ).

The Point of Invaildation of the above count is at 5100.

4. FII Data :

The dependence on FII's and their liquidity to push our Markets is well known . FII's withdrew in excess of $4 billion from Indian Markets . In fact as a Report today suggests that in Emerging Markets the max. outflow of FII money was in Indian Markets. There is a suggestion in the Report that this Data may be flawed and actual outflows may be in excess of $5 billion.

Check the Report - CLICK HERE

Is it just the 'Hot Money' running away or something Fundamental is changing that general Public is not aware of . Why they are not buying when Valuations looks great to TV analysts and 'Indian Growth Story' is hailed by majority Big Names in Investor and Fund management community . Is it another 'Great Indian Rope Trick' ?

5. Pattern :

The Chart Pattern that may be forming, owing to the symmtery shown above, may be a Bearish 'Rounding Top ' , with Target of the level from where it starts.

Instead of a ' Top ' I prefer to call it a ' Topi ' , as in a Hindi slang-'Topi Pahnana' , meaning to Cheat or Deceit , which It will be if turns out true for maximum retail traders and small investors.

6. Financial Astrology :

This is an offtake from a Financial astrology Blog of Christopher Kevill , who is a neo-vedic astrologer -

" Overall, 2012 looks like another difficult year for the markets. The current configuration of Jupiter-Saturn alongside Neptune and Uranus may well exercise a negative pull on markets into February. Jupiter will take over for a while after that and could bring a good relief rally into March. But the problem is that Jupiter will weaken after March while Saturn remains quite strong through much of the spring. This greatly increases the likelihood for more troubles in the financial world during Q2. To make matters worse, we will have an exact square aspect between Uranus and Pluto in June. These two distant planets only form aspects quite rarely so this aspect is definitely one to watch. Generally it is considered bearish and disruptive to the status quo. Since markets don't like uncertainty, we can expect to see some fallout from this aspect near the middle part of the year. This aspect will last through much of 2012 and will tend to create more upheavals and uncertainty. If anything, 2012 looks like it may be worse than 2011 in terms of global market performance."

For a caution ( in his own words ) - " The margin of error in financial astrology is depressingly huge. "

More over with some fundamental issues of Inflation , growing Fiscal deficit , High Interest Rates , slowing Industrial Growth and GDP , Governance paralysis for new Reforms , Strengthening Dollar , ticking Euro Issue timebomb , and collapse of trust in the present Financial system across the World , it seems difficult for a Bullish Reversal as of now .

To conclude ,

This is a Probable scenario that is explained in the above and previous mentioned post for readers to be cautious in Trading and Investing going forward. Though it may well turn out to be a false alarm but its better to take this high probability scenario along and look objectively at Invalidation Signals for the above if trading against this bias.

I will request Traders to only believe in the Price on the screen and Charts in the coming months . Be sure that the Markets will do the most obvious move in least expected way giving the pain to majority of the Participants.

Investors, if on sidelines , should wait for some Bullish signals to be seen and not fall for the trap of Bottom Picking .

Some levels of invalidation for this view and signals are in the previous post -
CLICK HERE

Now if the above scenario holds true then -

Either Prepare to turn this probable 'Adversity into an 'Opportunity ' , else wait for relief till 'PETA' ( People for Ethical Treatment of Animals ) starts their ' Save The Bull ' campaign .

Have a Profitable Year Ahead !!!

HAPPY NEW YEAR !!!

noreply@blogger.com (AAR VEE) — Fri, 30 Dec 2011 18:41:00 +0000

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WISHING A HAPPY AND PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR AHEAD !!!

Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year !!!

noreply@blogger.com (AAR VEE) — Sat, 17 Dec 2011 20:29:00 +0000

Christmas is approaching , and as a ritual every year, lot of Traders are expecting a 'Santa' Rally . But instead of hearing Jingle Bells from Santa , I am seeing 'Sunami waves ' on the charts. I fear that Santa (Rally) may not keep it's promise instead we may see 4400 levels approaching soon and probably below .

In the last Post for this Year , let us objectively analyze and check the Technicals for what lies ahead -

Why am I Bearish and why 4400 levels is a high probability Target ?

1. Monthly Chart ,Indicator ,Trend line and Pivots :

We should be aware that last session low of 4628 was the 52 week low and the close below 4700 was a first such close this year and may be first after the year 2009 on weekly basis.

As seen in Monthly chart below , last four months are making lows in 4700 levels but always closing above it on daily close basis. The break of 4700 level and close below it justifies that the path of least Resistance is Down and after few tries up now we are firming to go that way.

the Indicator has just reached Oversold zone and may remain there in a Trending Market.

The Monthly Pivot Points show that below 4800 level , the support is at 4400 levels and then below .

2. Fibonacci levels and Channel Pattern :

We know that Nifty is travelling in a Channel Pattern since the Highs of Nov. 2010. Now the Support of the sliding Lower Trendline is at 4400 levels.

The Fibonacci retrace levels of the low of 2009 (2539) to high of 2010(6338) shows a 50% retrace at 4440 apprx.
So both the Channel support and Fibo. level form a confluence at 4400 levels .

3. Volume :

The Volume consideration is the most important one after Prices and Prices associated with Volume tells a complete story . The Volume Profile chart of the last 10d show that Resistance has built up at 4760-4800 zone and any upmove in this series will only hold good on close above this range .

4. Futures and Option Data :

The Turnover of the last session was the highest in the series and that too with a bearish put -call ratio of Index Options below 1.0 . The move down was associated with a 5% increase in Nifty futures Open Interest also.

A Down move with increase in Open Interest is Bearish.

The 4700 strike level had maximum accumulation of Puts since the start of the series. It is my general observation that if the Option with Max. Open Interest gives way , then normally we get a 150-200 point fast move in the direction of the break . Its associated with trader's confidence , position built up and hedging at that level due to technical reasons , which invalidated leads to lot of squaring off positional trades leading to further fuel the move.

Last two sessions have closed below the previous series (November ) Expiry level of 4756 .

5. FII data :

FII's have been net sellers in both cash and derivative segments almost since that start of the series (and before too ) . This week there have been some big ticket selling days in derivatives both at the start of the week (4900+ was the weekly high made on Monday) and at the end of the Week ( A double distribution perhaps ) .

6. $USD v/s INR :

The fundamental reason for selling by FII's and their move resulting in the weakness of Nifty , is associated with the USD -INR relationship . The Dollar is strengthening against Rupee (after a long period of consolidation) . Nifty has an inverse corelation with $ movement and FII's tend to withdraw during the periods of stronger Dollar . Rupee traded at above 54 against $ this week which was a historic high .

The US Dollar Index looks to further strengthen up and seems to have started a new Uptrend off late . If it holds , we are likely to see the Rupee weaken further causing more pain to Nifty in near term.

7. Elliott Wave Analysis :

For the Basic EW counts that I have been following on Long Term Charts -
Click Here

For the Update of EW counts - Click Here

We are considering the move since Nov. 2010 in a Triple Zigzag Pattern (W-X-Y-XX-Z). We are now Trading the Third Zigzag , the Z , since 5400 near Diwali this year .

This Triple Zigzag may have completed its first wave A at previous lows of 4640 apprx. Now we may be either wave B or wave C .

The Subwave structure for a probable wave B (Red count ) continuing now or a probable wave C now (Black count ) may be as below

If we are in wave B still (Red Counts ) then wave a-B is over at 5099 in this series and we are in irregular b-B now , which may be in its subwave C since last session's high of 4820 apprx.

The Fibo. targets of which may be apprx. 4530 and 4460 as in the chart above . Also if C=A ( here 370) = 4820-370= apprx.4450 .

So by both methods a likely target is apprx. 4450 if this count holds good .

Why the Targets of sub 4400 ?

1. Alternatively, if the wave B is over at apprx. 61% retrace of wave A (Black Counts ), then we may have started the wave C from 5099 and may now be in its subwave 3 since apprx. 4820.
- A simple target of wave 3=1.62 X wave 1 ,will bring the short term target of 4220 .

- Also wave A was apprx. 750 points (5400-4640 ), so with a conservative C=A , 5100-750 = 4350 apprx. ,we get a target of below 4400.

- With wave 5th of Black counts and C=1.62A for the third zigzag ,Targets will go below 4000 and matches 61.8% retrace in Fibo charts posted above (2.) .

Its interesting to note that both the previous Zigzags (W and Y) had a total length of apprx. 1200 points , ratios of apprx C=1.6 A and C waves of apprx. 1000 points.

2. Weekly Head and Shoulders Pattern :

The chart for the same was posted in some previous post . It has an apprx. target of 4150 level.

Conclusions :

1. The Structure and setup now looks Bearish and conservative Targets of 4400 levels is a High Probability as it has confluence of levels by various methods above.

2. This move may unfold quite fast . (may be even in this week )

3. Second Target of near 4200 also looks realistic and may be possible by the end of this series or first half of Jan.'12 (if black EW counts hold good ).

4. The Bullishness with strength , will return on trading only above 18,500 Sensex levels (Nifty levels apprx. 5600 ) now as shown by Volume Profile since Nov.'10 highs.

5. Investors should not try and catch the falling knife and guess the bottom at this stage as valid Technicals for slide below 4000 levels also exist now . Either have disciplined SIP approach or wait on side lines till P/E levels for Nifty approaches 11-12 , which historically they did at start of 2003 and 2009 before start of next run upwards . We are at apprx. 17 P/E now.

6. A very simple but effective method to judge the confirmation of a firm uptrend is the Golden cross of 50-200 dma on charts , specially for the long term investors. As Moving Averages are lagging indicators ,the signal will come late but the confirmation will be effective. Right now we have a Death Cross made where 50 dma is trading below the 200 dma .

Now the most important aspect , that of caution in trading and not falling in a probable Bear trap . Trading above 4750 now in the next week will ring the danger bells and close above 4820 will invalidate / delay this outlook . We move to planning table again then.

Wishing a Merry Christmas and a Profitable Year ahead !!!

Technical Analysis for Nifty

noreply@blogger.com (AAR VEE) — Sun, 11 Dec 2011 15:10:00 +0000

We are trading now in a Sideways corrective Market in the Short Term ( Wave B as per EW counts ), in a broader range of 4700-5100 . Next week we enter the tricky part of this correction in larger downtrend which may see both an upmove and down move in a choppy market .

1. Daily Chart :

The Bird's eye chart for our Short term trading ,the Daily chart, is in a sell mode. The Upmove since 4639 resisted right at apprx. 62% retrace . The break of the Uptrendline as shown in the chart has weakened the Upmove and now has a Resistance at apprx. 4950 level.

2. Hourly Chart :

Our Trading chart , the 60 min , is in upward mode , which may give an initial upmove ( also suggested by the SGX Nifty trading after Euro news ). The Uptrendline broken is further zoomed here with Resistance above 4950 level as we move ahead in the week. One should also mark the Gap left during the Upmove since 4639 , with Gap fill now at 4720 as marked in chart.

3. Weekly Moving Averages :

We mark 5week Moving Averages to judge the Trend , which broadly moved between the High ema and low ema in the last week . Now as marked in the chart , 4950 level (the 5w ema ), will act as a Pivot for this week and upmove only on close above it . Breaking of low ema , 4840 , will weaken the structure .

4. Volume Profile :

As only Price and Volume are the absolutes in this Market , a Volume Profile chart is an important Indicator . The 10day Profile shows the POC at apprx. 4960 level which will now act as Resistance . 4810 is an HVN which will give support but as per volumes there , it may not be a strong one .

5. Option Data :

The build up of Open Interest at 4700 Puts and 5100 Calls , suggests this as a broader trading range for this Series as of now . 4800 level with more puts than call is the immediate Support and 5000 strike with more calls than puts is the the Resistance for this week. So 4800-5000 may be the broader range for the week ahead.

6. FII stats :

Though the FII's were buyers initially in this week's fall , now they have turned seller in last trading session . But point to be marked is their huge selling in last two sessions in the Derivative segment . It suggests their down ward bias .

7. Elliott Wave Analysis :

Taking the Basic count of a Triple Zigzag from Highs of 6338 (reference posts at sidebar ) , we may have finished the second intermediate wave , XX , at 5400 level after Diwali. As marked in the Daily chart below , the wave A of the third zigzag may have been over at 4639 and now we are in wave B of the third zigzag which may target the fibo level as shown in chart below .

This is also the 'Sucker wave' which may take more time than wave A ( may be this whole series ) and make many traders Bullish, as its meant to do, before unfolding a Fast and Furious wave C down.

The wave B may have finished its sub wave a-B at 5099 and now in subwave b-B which may retrace as Fibonacci levels shown in the chart below. We already have covered near 60% of retrace in last week .

Now in last week's trading the subwave A-b-B may be over at the last session low of 4842 . The counts in 5 min chart suggests it to be a 3 wave move . so the wave b-B in may now be a Flat (3-3-5) or a Triangle(3-3-3-3-3) . The 5 min chart has a tentative EW route suggested under ideal conditions for the Short term .

This week may see the trade in B-b-B up and C-b-B down. The likely wave B-b-B may retrace as the fibo. levels shown in hourly chart below , 4970-5000 may be a target for B-b-B upwards followed by a C-b-B down .

So concluding the above Analysis, the Resistance is near the 4950-5000 range with a probability of retesting and may be breaking the low of 4840 to fill the gap at 4720 . In all may be a Choppy, Volatile Trading Week ahead, so be cautious and light .

Have a profitable week ahead !!!

Technical Analysis for Nifty

noreply@blogger.com (AAR VEE) — Sun, 27 Nov 2011 13:41:00 +0000

The Larger Trend is still down and we are on a cross roads for the Short term where the bounce started on Nov. Expiry day may continue or we again slide with the Larger Trend. With combination of the methods used , we will try to get the Trading Insight and levels going ahead.

1. Indicators :

The Weekly chart is still in the Sell mode suggesting that Larger Trend has some downside left.

The Daily chart shows sign of exhaustion in oversold region with a Double bottom at 4640 apprx. and a Technical bounce on.

Until some crucial levels are not crossed going Positional Long based on these indicators may be premature as Larger Trend may takeover again.

2. Trendlines :

The Daily charts have been moving in a Channel Pattern since Nov'10 high of 6338 ,which has been followed in the Blog earlier also. The Long Term Trendline drawn from Oct 2008 low joining March 2009 low is where we are resting currently.

In a DownTrend Supports give way sooner or later . If the 4640 level ,which now is a double bottom support fails to hold , we will be moving towards the Channel Bottom Trendline Now placed apprx. at 4450-4500 level .

3. Moving Average :

Please refer to the Weekly chart under Indicators , Last week was the 52 week lowest closing and this close was below the 200 week Moving average mark . One may note that , it closed once below it from where the rally to 5400 materialized , but now it gives Bearish signals.

This level of 200wma at 4778 will be important level for Positional Traders.

4. Volume Profile :

Price and Volumes are the only absolutes in the Market , Volume Profile serves both in the Chart and hence is an important tool for trading . The 10day Profile now shows the POC at 4750 level .

This level of 4750 now on Closing Basis will be sign of Short Term Reversal.

5. Options Data:

The Options Open Interest data shows the Largest accumulation of Puts at 4500 and Calls at 5000. This may be the broader range for now. 4500 level is where the Support is expected. 4700 is the next level with Puts O.I. which may now be the intermediate Support level only. The number of Calls exceed the Puts Only at 5000 levels , which is expected as safe level by the Call writers as of now. This also tells that bounce rally if materializes will be fast towards it .

6. FII Data :

The FII's have been consistent Sellers and have sold even in the bounce from 4640 levels in the Cash Market . Though the Derivatives data shows the cautious Hedging by them in this bounce. The Global factors along with $-INR relation is abating the withdrawls by FII's.

7. India VIX :

The contrarian indicators of the Volatility Index is now above the Range marked and normally indicates nearing of Bottom at higher levels .

8. Elliott Wave Analysis :

The Basic Long Term EW count followed by me can be referred - Click Here

The Updated broader Counts may be followed - Click Here

Now Since 5400 ( XX) we may be in the A wave of the 3rd Zigzag . This wave is unfolding in 5 waves down structure and the 3rd wave has extended. We may have ended the A wave leg at 4638 level and Now in B wave up or Preferably in the 4th wave now. ( Red Count ) .

The 5 min count for trading this week is suggesting that either 4th has ended in the A-B-C waves and 5th down has started in the last session or this 4th wave is in the B wave with a leg up remaining.

Now if the C-4 is due ,the Targets / Resistance for the Bounce are shown in chart below at 4800 and 4900 apprx. They also have Gaps left while coming down and almost are the C=A and C=1.62A target.

Alternate count of being in a B wave of zigzag will be discussed if we reach near 4900 in the bounce.

So , by the above Analysis - if 4640 holds we may see an upmove to near 4800-4900 levels in the Short Term , But Larger Trend being Down points towards 4450-4500 levels sooner or later.

Advisory Service

noreply@blogger.com (AAR VEE) — Sat, 19 Nov 2011 15:29:00 +0000

Thank you All !!! for a positive response and cooperation during the Trial period on Yahoo messenger.

The Trial period ends on 24-11-11.
Advisory Blog -The Trading Journal and Yahoo messenger services will then be open only for the Subscribers.

Subscriptions only for a select batch of Traders will close on 25-11-11.

Mail me for details at aarvee9@gmail.com

Advisory Service - Free Trial

noreply@blogger.com (AAR VEE) — Fri, 11 Nov 2011 14:37:00 +0000

Hi Friends ,

The current Batch enrolled for the Advisory Services will be over by the end of November Derivative series, 24 -11-11. I propose to start a New Batch for select Subscribers, for the next two Derivative series , December '11 and January '12.

The Service, "Learn and Earn", unique for it's Process and Content , will include –

- Calls for only Nifty Futures and Options for a period of next two derivative series (from 28-11-11 upto 25-01-12).

- Calls will be based on Trend trading & Swing /Breakout trading methods for Time Frame of one or more trading sessions ( Short Term Positionals) and will be combined with Intraday Trades when probability arises. The combination is designed to get superior returns by capturing the major moves of the prevalent Trend and to go for some Countertrend trades as well.

- Positional Calls will be given in advance and in detail to Trade . Intraday calls will be given in Real Time. The number of calls will vary as per Market condition.

- Call details will have specific Entry, Exit , S/l or SAR and Hedging if required.

- Proper Trade management & Followup of Open Trades in Real Time and EOD as required .

- Stress and Care for the most neglected aspects of Trading namely, Money Management ( Position sizing ) and Risk Management (S/L or SAR) , so important to preserve Capital and maximize Profits.

- Calls will be provided by Email / Yahoo messenger/ SMS / Blog Posts as required.

- The most important aspect will be the exposure to a separate Blog ,

( The Trading Journal ) dedicated to the service subscribers acting as a Trading Journal, which besides keeping the records of the Trade calls and giving advance Trading Plan , will Importantly explain the Technical logic behind each aspect of trade taken i.e. , the entry , exit , stoploss etc with the help of charts and notes.

- The Broader Idea is to share the Trading Insight & Method Education with the subscribers so that they Learn them simultaneously while Trading and managing the Calls given .

The Service exposes the subscribers to various Methods of Technical Analysis , their Application , Formulation of Strategy and Execution of Trades with sound Trading Principles.

I invite Traders to join for a Free Trial Period starting from 14-11-11 for 10 days

( access to the Blog and Yahoo messenger ) which will give a feel for the Method and Process employed for the Advisory Service.

# Mail me at - aarvee9@gmail.com for Joining on Yahoo Messenger.

# Blog Link for - "The Trading Journal" (Now Open to All ) -

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The Subscription for the next batch will be again for a limited number of traders for the ease of personal interaction , strictly on ' First come First Basis' and will close by 25-11-11

“Learn and Earn”, is the only way to emerge Independent and Empowered for a profitable Trading Life ahead. !!!

Technical Analysis for Nifty

noreply@blogger.com (AAR VEE) — Sun, 30 Oct 2011 11:25:00 +0000

There has been a Short Term Reversal from recent lows in last couple of weeks. Prices have overcome the Resistances and Gaps to Trade firm. Is it a complete Reversal making the bias Up or is it a Reaction before the Fall follows again ? Let us objectively analyze and try to find a ' Method in the Madness' with help of the Technicals and combination of them -

1. Indicators :

The Weekly Indicators are nearing Overbought conditions but yet to show weakness or Sell signal . Prices have closed above mid Bollinger band .

The Daily chart shows a similar trait with Indicators Overbought and yet to give a Sell signal and now trading above Top B.B.

The Trend is firm and is likely to continue till the Sell signal comes after exhausting in Overbought zone.

2. Trendlines and Patterns :

The corrective phase since Nov '10 can be seen as trading in a Channel . Prices are approaching the Top Trendline near apprx. 5450-60 level.

An Island Reversal Pattern is formed where the gap prices of apprx. 5230-5325 seperates the lower portion of the trade in Daily charts. This is a Bullish Pattern but with worst performance rank and reliability. The Price Objective of this pattern is apprx. 5580 taking in the performance percentage. Throw back to the breakout level ,here apprx. 5220 , is normal.

Another Pattern discussed in one of the previous post is of a Head and Shoulders in the Weekly chart. The retrace seems to be on to test the Neckline near 5500 level.

3. Moving Averages :

The Medium to Long Term Moving Averages of 50, 100, 200 dma are all Bearishly aligned as of now, with Prices approaching 200dma at apprx. 5410 level.

Moving Averages are Lagging Indicators and will give confirmation only after a lag of time even if its a reversal here.

4. India -VIX :

The Volatility Index or the VIX chart shows the cooling of the volatility which was built in since Aug. series and now within the range.

It indicates traders comfort and confidence and is a Bullish signal.

5. Option Analysis :

Its the start of the Nov. series and data may not be too confirming but is shows a probable Resistance in 5400-5500 zone and a Support in 4900-5000 level by the built up of Open Interest data. It will change as we go ahead.

6. Volume Profile :

A 10d Profile for near term shows a Support at 5100. Upward bias continues above it .

Though I don't have the relevant chart but One year Profile POC comes at apprx. 5480 level. This may be the SAR level for trading the Short term Positionals.

7. FII Data :

There has been a Huge Buying from FII's in Both Cash and Derivatives segment which cautions us against any proactive Bearish stance.

8. Elliott Wave Analysis :

Frankly EW counts are not so clear at this point of time. Even though my Preferred Count has not been invalidated , where the Point of Invalidation comes at 5496 , I still prefer to adjust it seeing the Wave personality and Indicators I follow in conjuction with EW . One may check the Last Update - Click Here

Now I propose a minor change in the subwave count and the overall Corrective Structure since Nov '10. A complex correction was on in a Double Zigzag Pattern ,
W-X-Y, since then. But seeing the wave structure since recent lows of 4728 , I mark the end of the Double Zigzag at 4728 and now an Intermediate wave , XX, going on. This will further lead to another leg of correction which will then form a Triple Zigzag Pattern, W-X-Y-XX-Z . A simple Line Diagram of this Pattern may be as below.

The X Wave is a reactionay wave , corrective in nature and usually is a Zigzag. It retraces the Previous A-B-C , here wave Y , by typically 50% and more. A Fibonacci chart for the same is given below.

This XX wave may be unfolding as below and has completed the A and B leg . It may now be in the 4th wave of the C leg. The Price objective as per C=A is apprx. 5470 and as per C=1.62 A is apprx. 5735 .

An Alternate view to the above count may be that the Corrective phase since Nov'10 has ended at 4720/28 ( apprx. 38% of the upmove since Oct '08 -Nov'10 ) and we are now moving up in the 1st / 3rd wave. It may hold equally good and will only be known after a Correction and further Trade from there.

Conclusions :

1. Technicals are suggesting not to be Proactively Bearish or Bullish now.

2. Uptrend may continue with 100-150 points left on upside . Resistance will come near 5450-75 range and then near 5530-80 level. Close above 5530 will be Bullish for Short term.

3. Initial Support may be near 5320-40 apprx. in the first half of the week and then near 5200 level later. Close below 5200 will be Bearish for short term.

4. Gap created on Friday,5220-5320, if filled fast, may only be in the second half of the week or later next week.

5. Avoid Buying Out of Money Options for next week.

6. Trades to be done for small gains rather than being Positional.

Broad Range of Trade for next couple of weeks may be 5200-5500. Believe in Screen and Flexibility will be the Key to Trade now.

Happy Trading !!!

Happy Diwali !!!

noreply@blogger.com (AAR VEE) — Tue, 25 Oct 2011 18:19:00 +0000

Wishing All a Very Happy and Healthy Diwali along with a Prosperous Year ahead

Enjoy the Festival !!! Take Care

Elliott Wave Analysis for Nifty

noreply@blogger.com (AAR VEE) — Sat, 15 Oct 2011 18:25:00 +0000

Elliott Wave Analysis helps one understand the prevailingTrend and probable Targets to Trade. Though quite subjective , this theory if used with classical TA methods , is quite handful. It tells the 'Sailor' about the direction of the ' Wind' as well as the distance of the 'Port'.

Lets us now analyze where we are 'sailing' as on date -

1. The Basic assumptions and counts can be viewed in the Post - Click Here We may be trading in a Double Zigzag structure since November '10 High of 6338.

We may now be in the second zigzag labelled Y. This may be in its last leg of wave
C(Y) unfolding in a five wave structure.

2. The wave C(Y) may be in the subwave 4 since the low of 4720 in August end.

3. The wave 4 may be trading in a Flat correction of 3-3-5 wave structure as A-B-C .

4. The Flat corrective Pattern developing may broadly be like below . The wave C of the Flat ends slightly above the end of the wave A , rather than significantly beyond it as in a zigzag. The Price objective of wave C is apprx. 5180 if C=A.

5. The wave 4 may be in its last wave C ,which may be unfolding in a five wave structure as below.

6. The Fibonacci retrace targets show that its trading above the 38% and may go to 50% retrace just above the 5200 level.

7. Timewise wave 4 is related to wave 3 or wave 1-3 , often longer than them.

Wave 1-3 had taken 35 sessions to complete and we traded in the 32nd session of wave 4 on 14-10-11.

8. The Targets for C(Y) are as discussed in Long Term update Post - Click Here

9. Its Important to note down the 'Point of Invalidation' of any count . The chart below shows them for various counts of this wave as per the hard EW rule that a wave 4 must not trade in the zone of the wave 1 of the wave structure in consideration.

10. Caution should be foremost while trading Elliott Wave Analysis alone and that to proactively . The next wave to unfold should only be traded on its confirmation.

Technical Analysis for Nifty

noreply@blogger.com (AAR VEE) — Sat, 08 Oct 2011 18:57:00 +0000

The above Picture was received in a forwarded mail asking to read the word in this picture. Try doing it. You may be able to read a word in it. Try focusing more ,You will find two words in it , 'Illusion' in Blue landscape and 'Optical' in the Yellow.

Similar is the reading of Charts , we tend to see what we believe. But trading it stubbornly can be harmful for the Capital , instead we try to objectively analyze and get some conclusions that should be traded with Flexibility.

1. Indicators :

Analyzing the Indicator signals in three time frames as in charts below , the Hourly , Daily and Weekly , we find that -

- Hourly gave a Positive Diversion and has reached the Overbought zone but the Prices made a lower High doing so .

- Daily Indicator is just moving up from Oversold almost signalling a Buy. The Resistance comes at Mid Bollinger Band of 20dma at 4960 and Support at Lower B.B. at 4740 .

- The Higher TF of Weekly is a clear Sell . The Support comes of Lower B.B. at 4650.

Ideally all the rallies may get sold into till a strong Weekly close happens on upside.

2. Trendlines and Patterns :

Nifty is trading in a Rangebound zone making Lower High Pivots between the Trendlines shown in the Chart below.

The Triangle Pattern got broken down in Daily charts and is now Trading in a Wedge Pattern .

The break of Trendlines on either side will give a short trem Trending move.

3. Moving Averages :

The 5 Week ema chart is an interesting one and cuts the noise of the volatile rangebound Daily chart . It shows a clear three week Uptrend followed by a couple of weeks of rangebound movement which has turned to a downtrend in last three weeks .

Now a close above 4950 will signal a short term reversal on the upside and a close below 4800 may signal further trending downside.

4. Volume Profile :

To fine tune the Levels in conjunction with Volumes ,

the 10d Volume Profile suggests a break of Range on a close above 4950 on Upside and that below 4850 for the Downside.

5. Elliott Wave Analysis :

Further to the Basic counts in the Long Term Post . The chart below shows two alternate counts in Blue and Red . Blue is preferable now and shows a likely start of subwave 3 of wave 5 ( of C-Y) .

The likely immediateTarget for it is 4450-4530 levels.The Preferable count gets invalidated on trade above 5035 Spot price .

Conclusions :

- 4850-4950 is a No Trade zone.

- High Probability of a Breakout move above / below this Range.

- Bias remains Down till closes above 4950 .

- Above 4950 will target 5060 and then will try to fill the gap upto 5124.

- Below 4850 will target 4800 , 4740 , 4650 and 4530.

- Caution against a whipsaw of the range boundaries. ( say a trading /close above 4950 but back in range to break the lower end or viceversa )

- Markets might just be holding out before the start of the Results season next week.

The Analysis concludes that Bias is Down , but rather than Trading this Belief blindly, it will be prudent to trade the Prices objectively.

Wanna try out once more . Try reading the word in the picture below . Got one , try again .

It has two words in it. ' Good ' in Black , enveloping 'Evil' in White .

Now on seeing the picture again it looks quite obvious , which always will be the case seeing the Charts in the hindsight .

Happy Trading !!!

The Trading Journal

noreply@blogger.com (AAR VEE) — Sat, 01 Oct 2011 10:20:00 +0000

The Link for the Blog used for Advisory Services - The Trading Journal , maintained as a record for the Daily Trading Plans ,Trading Insight , Technical Analysis , Review and Analysis of the Trades executed and Notes for important Lessons learnt in the process is

http://themoneymatrix.blogspot.com/

Technical Analysis for Nifty

noreply@blogger.com (AAR VEE) — Sun, 25 Sep 2011 15:24:00 +0000

After a big fall in a single session and a followup the next session , we now look for a reaction to it and the probable Resistance levels . The larger Trend is down and almost have confirmed the end of the corrective upmove (of apprx 38%+ ) from the lows of 4720 . Now the larger TF Downtrend takes the driving seat again.

1. Indicators :

The Daily chart has given a sell in indicators after Negative Diversion wrt. a Double Top . The Prices are now trading below the Mid Bollinger Band ,which will act as Resistance at apprx. 5000 levels.

2. Pattern :

The corrective upmove traded in a Triangle Pattern and broke that down last week . There may be a Retrace and Lower Trendline ,which acted as a Support, will now be the Resistance.

3. Moving Averages :

The Weekly 5EMA Chart shows that close has been below the Weekly Low ema and now any move to Weekly 5 close ema , at apprx. 4990 , will now act as Resistance.

The Short term Averages of 5-20 ema have given a Bearish cross and now they will act as Resistance at 4980 and 5030.

4. Fibonacci :

If the low has been made last week for this leg ,The chart below shows the probable retrace levels which will offer resistance to reactive upmove.

5. Volume Profile :

The 10d Volume Profile has 5035 level as POC which will act as Resistance to any upmove and the Trend is down below it in the short trem . One should also remember that the POC on Thrusday, when markets fell big time , was 4995.

6. FII Data :

The FII's have turned big sellers in last two sessions.

7. USD v/s INR :

Owing to the Global uncertainity and fiscal management by Funds etc , USD has shooted up as an asset class . The corelation with Nifty and impact on it can be read in a previous Post - Click Here

8. Elliott Wave Analysis:

The Basic count that I have been following - Click Here
shows that we are in wave C(Y) with probable targets given.

We now may have completed the 4th wave of C(Y) and are in the wave 5 trading.

So , any bounce up now will be Resisted in the range of 4950-5050. The Down Trend may prevail after that . The Expiry week may throw in an odd surprise owing to squaring off positions and rollover to next series.

Happy Trading !!!

Technical Analysis for Nifty

noreply@blogger.com (AAR VEE) — Sun, 11 Sep 2011 14:08:00 +0000

We have retraced the downmove from 5700- 4720 by apprx. 9% on the upside in the last two weeks . Now coming couple of weeks may see some consolidation/ range trading before the downmove resumes again. Let us check the Tecnicals -

1. The Daily chart Indicators are in Overbought zone giving a Sell signal (almost ) . But interesting is to check the Weekly chart which has moved from Oversold to Buy. This conflict shows a Range bound / Consolidation Phase ahead.

The Broader Range as shown by Bollinger Bands may be 4800-5200.

2. The weakness is evident in Hourly charts where the Trendline of the recent upmove since 4720-5168 has broken down. But remember , breaking of any Trendline need not be a Reversal of Trend , but only a signal of the End of prevailing Trend in that Time Frame .

3. The Pattern formed may be a Rising Wedge and can be looked as a Wolfe Wave formation . To Read more about it - Click Here

The Price objective of the Target is near 4925 level.

4. The Moving Averages on the Weekly chart indicates an Upmove only above 5180 level and Downmove confirmation on a close below 4920 level with 5030 level as a Pivot .

5. The Bias remains Down below 5130 Level as per 10d Volume Profile.

6.The Elliott wave charts can be read with Basic Count - Click Here and further Updated with Price Targets and Chart - Click Here

We may now have finished the first leg up, Wave A of the wave 4 -C (Y) as per the preferable count.

Now we may be in the Wave B- 4 down for which conservative Targets are shown as in the chart below.

So a Probable Sideways move for Next couple of Weeks , broadly between 4800 - 5200 with possible suprises on downside ( may be below 4800 ) or on upside (may be above series High ). Trade Light untill resolves .

Adivsory Services and the Trading Blog

noreply@blogger.com (AAR VEE) — Sat, 03 Sep 2011 13:25:00 +0000

The Advisory Services began this Week . I Thank All the Subscribers for their Faith and Trust shown in Me and the Methods .

Though these are early days for the start up , Have a view of the Trading Blog -

"The Trading Journal "- Click Here ,

which is being used for the subscribers to give the Trading Plan , Trading Insight , Eod Analysis of the Trade taken , Posts for Queries , Educative Posts etc.

Apart from this , the Trades are given in Real Time on Yahoo Messenger and SMS service . Some good interaction for Technicals behind the Trades and Real Time insight of the Market conditions along with sharing of relevant Charts happens during the Trading hours .

I Thank all for the co-operation extended .

Technical Analysis for Nifty

noreply@blogger.com (AAR VEE) — Sun, 28 Aug 2011 14:53:00 +0000

The August series ended with the maximum damage to the Prices in the downfall since Nov ’10 ( from 6338) . The prices corrected from 5700 levels to 4700 levels , apprx. 1000 points fall and now we are trading at multi-months low ( new 52 week low at par with May ’10 levels ). Let us check out the Technical probabilities for the Short Term –

1. Indicators :

The Weekly Chart shows Oversold Indicators with no sign of reversal of this downtrend as of now.

The Daily Chart also shows movement near Oversold region and has a Positive Diversion with prices making new lows and Indicators started showing strength.

Similar to Daily Chart, The Hourly Chart also exhibits Positive Diversion in Indicators.

The Positive Diversion indicates a Technical Bounce on the anvil.

2. Moving Averages:

The Trend Indicators Averages for short term 5-20ema along with intermediate -20-50 and long term 50-200 dma are all Bearishly aligned. It shows the firmness of the ongoing Downtrend in all Time Frames.

Any Bounce now would be Resisted at important Averages .

3. India VIX :

The Volatility Index – VIX is a contra-indicator as the volatility increases near a bottom and tends to lower down at tops. The VIX values are near the Top end of the recent short term range.

Short Term Bottoming out may have started.

4. Patterns and Trendlines :

The Hourly charts show a ‘ Falling Wedge’ Pattern in the making .The results of this pattern can be Bullish at the end of a Downtrend , though in itself its not a Reversal Pattern but a Continuation one.

So within a Larger TF downtrend , this pattern can give a temporary relief on the upside.

Also watch the break of Trendline shown in the Hourly chart under Elliott wave subhead for confirmation of the upside break.

5. Option Analysis and Futures O.I.

This is just the start of a new series and hence data is more on the hedge side of the rollovers from last series. It shows a broad range of 4700-5000 with a new developing Support at 4600 in case of break of 4700 . 4900 is a neutral level which may be a broad SAR as per options data. The Implied Volatlity of the Put side is greater than on the Call side so Writers will be more happy selling the Puts.

The Nifty Futures Open Interest Data is interesting. Last trading session added apprx. 28 lac shares with a significant decrease in the Cost of Carry. Clearly they are Shorts formed at the break of 4840 level ,the last series Expiry Price. The selling is also confirmed by last day’s volume profile.

So a Short Squeeze is waiting on trading above 4850-4900 levels now.

6. FII Data :

The FII’s have been Net Sellers in the Cash Market and have sold record volumes this series. But for the short term they have been a simultaneous Buyers in Derivatives .

This shows a hedging and a probable short term outlook of a caution against the Downtrend.

7. Elliott Wave Analysis :

Please check the basic Wave counts – Click Here

As per the Preferred view we are in the 3^rd wave of the second zigzag (Y) .

The Subwave count indicates a probable completion of the fifth wave of this 3^rd . (The MACD also has given a positive diversion between the third and fifth wave of this 3^rd in the Hourly charts above) .

A last leg may be left in the the completion of the vth of the fifth of the 3^rd.

So as the 3^rd wave is nearing an end , We can look for the 4^th wave up ,The Fibonacci Chart below gives the probable Targets and Resistances. The chart can be modified if a new low is formed.

8. Volume Profile :

The Profile shows 4840 can be kept as SAR for short term and managed to trade accordingly.

Trading Insight :

After the sustained trending down move , an Upwards correction is indicated by correlation of the above Analysis. The quality of the bounce will be tested at Resistances . One should always remember that we are in Larger Frame Down Trend while trading this corrective bounce .

Have a Profitable Trading ahead !!!

Thank You Anna Hazare & India Against Corruption !!!

noreply@blogger.com (AAR VEE) — Sat, 27 Aug 2011 14:50:00 +0000

Where the mind is without fear and the head is held high

Where knowledge is free

Where the world has not been broken up into fragments

By narrow domestic walls

Where words come out from the depth of truth

Where tireless striving stretches its arms towards perfection

Where the clear stream of reason has not lost its way

Into the dreary desert sand of dead habit

Where the mind is led forward by thee

Into ever-widening thought and action

Into that heaven of freedom, my Father, let my country awake.

The Images below tell the Story

Update for Trading on 24-08-11

noreply@blogger.com (AAR VEE) — Wed, 24 Aug 2011 04:20:00 +0000

The 15min ORB did not break on downside. Ignore the trade given below.

Trading on 24-08-11

noreply@blogger.com (AAR VEE) — Tue, 23 Aug 2011 18:26:00 +0000

Posting a Trade for tomorrow, which may turn out a short term swing if goes right .

Entry : Short the 15 min ORB (opening range breakout ), only if breaks on downside. Take care for the proper break.

S/L : Strictly on ORB high+ 5 points . Put it at once u sell on break.

Postion sizing : Increase below 4890 and hold

Target : May Target 4750-4700 in next two -three trading sessions .

Caution : Monitor as per intraday charts if goes right. Caution at 4850 ,can be part booked and re enter on its break. Use Trailing s/l and follow.

No Long Trade Recommended .

NOTE : Subscription closes on Friday - 26/08/11.