The Third Eye

Blood Moon, Eclipse, Stock Markets, Nifty, Elliott Wave,.......

noreply@blogger.com (AAR VEE) — Fri, 27 Jul 2018 17:25:00 +0000

On 27th July 2018 we witnessed the Blood Moon, Longest Total Lunar Eclipse of the Century !!!

# Astrologically, this eclipse was along with exalted Mars in Capricorn, supposed to be a fiery combination. Also Mars was in 'Opposition' i.e. Mars-Earth-Sun came in a straight line on same day. Mars will also be closest to Earth since 2003 on July 31st. Looks like a Bearish set up overall which can show effect going ahead.

# Nifty P/E has crossed 28 levels and we can see from the chart below what happens in such a zone. Not many front line stocks have participated in last Upmove making it a suspect.

# FII's have been selling in Cash for last three months since we made the bottom of 9952 and reversed for this leg of Upmove. Though FII effect is somewhat nullified since Demonetization after which DII's have been leading/balancing the Market with much liquidity coming in for Mutual Fund investment.

# Elliott Wave Probability that is being tracked was Bullish for Long Term since the low of 5119 was made in 2013 and was updated in Blog.

This is a Link from a 2014 Post before the General Elections:

http://aar-vee.blogspot.com/2014/05/elliott-wave-technical-analysis-for.html#more

The Chart below is from the same Post above :

#EW Probability as of now :

Conclusions :

1. As of now there is No TA Signal of Nifty Topping out.

1. Resistance in Short Term (This series and Next) may come in 11365-500 zone or above in 11850-12000 zone.

2. Set up looks Bearish/Sideways for Medium Term (may be till 2019 Elections).

3. Stock Market will be in Long Term Uptrend targeting much higher levels ( Nifty 13300 and above) in Years to come till 8969 is held in any correction as of now.

4. The Caution now should be on Long side for Positional Trading. New deployment of Capital in Equities should be resisted at these levels.

Happy Deepawali to All !!!

noreply@blogger.com (AAR VEE) — Fri, 20 Oct 2017 12:16:00 +0000

HAPPY DIWALI !!!

noreply@blogger.com (AAR VEE) — Sun, 30 Oct 2016 07:40:00 +0000

Wishing All a Peaceful, Prosperous & Happy Diwali !

Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis for Nifty

noreply@blogger.com (AAR VEE) — Sun, 03 Apr 2016 18:03:00 +0000

Let us take a look at the Probability as of now.

1.

The Charts above are self explanatory.

We may have a Short Term movement ( may be the April series) broadly between 50 and 200 dma. 7500 to 8000 apprx. Range is also suggested by the Options data.

Technical Analysis for Nifty

noreply@blogger.com (AAR VEE) — Sun, 20 Mar 2016 18:12:00 +0000

Follow up of the last Post -

For last two weeks prices have been moving in a tight range above/ below 7500 and now seems to have broken out of this range in the last session.

This week is truncated followed by the Expiry week.

Nifty- Budget 2016

noreply@blogger.com (AAR VEE) — Mon, 29 Feb 2016 17:25:00 +0000

Last Post http://aar-vee.blogspot.in/2016/02/elliott-wave-technical-analysis-for.html#more expected the following Probability :

Since Trend is Down, keeping below 7230 close we may retest the Low / further below.

We may get an upside bounce on a close above 7000 to test the Resistance zone now at 7150-7230.

Close above 7270 may signal a Bottom in place as of now.

Positionally the Low 6869 and apprx 100 points below is now a good Support zone.

As of now :

Will update on this further.

Elliott Wave & Technical Analysis for Nifty

noreply@blogger.com (AAR VEE) — Sun, 14 Feb 2016 19:24:00 +0000

A Big Weekly Downside. Markets Down almost 25% from the Top of 9119. Check out the Charts as of now.

1.

A Capitulation move was ripe to come as expected in a Jan. Post to test the bottom of the Channel. The cut has been deep and whipsawed the Lower T/L of Channel.

Since Trend is Down, keeping below 7230 close we may retest the Low / further below.

We may get an upside bounce on a close above 7000 to test the Resistance zone now at 7150-7230.

Close above 7270 may signal a Bottom in place as of now.

Positionally the Low 6869 and apprx 100 points below is now a good Support zone.

Trade with caution. Have hedged positions on any bias whether Long or Short.

Elliott Wave & Technical Analysis for Nifty

noreply@blogger.com (AAR VEE) — Sun, 31 Jan 2016 17:41:00 +0000

After a dull expiry for Jan series and big move on Friday, lets check out the charts as of now -

1.

Last Week's summary -

- Positional Bias remains Down till it closes above 7480 as mentioned in the last Post.

- There is a Probability that only 3 waves of C have been completed and we may retest the low 7242 / go further down in this Week to complete the C as in chart .

- Trading below the 7400 level and Upper T/L would be a Bearish Signal in line with the above probability.

- Above 7480, we may test 7520 and 7600 apprx

The Expiry Week traded above 7400 and below 7480, a sideways consolidation, which broke out above 7480, the first hour high on Friday.

- Now the Bias in Short term is Sideways to Up above 7480.

- 7480-7520 is the Support zone moving forward.

- Target Up, holding the support zone in short term is apprx. 7700 +- 25.
There is a probability of a fast move to Channel top if Shorts remain persistent in the system.

- Close below 7480 may change the Trend to Down again.

- Higher Time frames are yet to reverse which calls for caution.

Nifty in Expiry Week- Jan 2016

noreply@blogger.com (AAR VEE) — Sun, 24 Jan 2016 15:38:00 +0000

Are the Bears leaving or still sniffing opportunity?

Last week Nifty achieved the basic target of Correction at 7350 apprx and went further down. Let us check the short term Probability in store for this week.

It is continuation of the Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis of last week, so please read this post along with it for clarity

http://aar-vee.blogspot.in/2016/01/elliott-wave-technical-analysis-for.html

- Positional Bias remains Down till it closes above 7480 as mentioned in the last Post.

- There is a Probability that only 3 waves of C have been completed and we may retest the low 7242 / go further down in this Week to complete the C as in chart .

- Trading below the 7400 level and Upper T/L would be a Bearish Signal in line with the above probability.

- Above 7480, we may test 7520 and 7600 apprx

- This truncated Week may see volatile moves. Trade safely.

Elliott Wave & Technical Analysis for Nifty

noreply@blogger.com (AAR VEE) — Sun, 17 Jan 2016 15:45:00 +0000

Prolonged Correction is on from the High of 9119. The start of 2016 has been quite Bearish. Check out where do we stand in bigger Picture and the probable structure of Correction .

1.

~ We are in a Time wise and Price wise Correction of the Up move since 2013/14 lows of 5118/5933. (This may be the 4th wave down of a larger 5th wave up)

~ The Correction since 9119 may be taking form of a probable ABC-X-ABC structure. We may be in the last C down of it.

~ Though from 8336 high the C=A gives a probable target of 7350, extension is possible because of the F&O series dynamics and the momentum .

~ Positional Bias is Down below 7480 as of now.

~ We are approaching 61.8% level of retrace of the upmove 5933-9119 (3rd of the 5th) at 7150

~ All the Time Frames are now in Oversold zone.

~ Capitulation move may come in this week or next.

~ Longs are Contra to the Trend in all TFs till signals of Bottoming out start to appear.

~ Be Short - PartBook - Hedge - Save Profits till the Trend lasts.

Elliott Wave & Technical Analysis for Nifty

noreply@blogger.com (AAR VEE) — Mon, 06 Jul 2015 06:34:00 +0000

Let's Replug from the previous couple of Posts :

>>> Below is the Daily TF Chart from the March 16th post :

http://aar-vee.blogspot.in/2015/03/elliott-wave-and-technical-analysis-for.html#more

It observes a Gap area 7936-75 just below the pivot low of 7961 which may be the likely Target of this correction.

One of the conclusions in this Post was -

If it's a wave 4 correction and gives a time and price wise larger correction, then the Positional Targets can be 8370 and 7900 apprx.

The expected Correction continued time wise from March till June and retraced apprx 38% ( as shown in the Fibo chart of the Post ) with low made being 7940.

>>> This is May 31st Post when some Reversal signals began to appear:

http://aar-vee.blogspot.in/2015/05/elliott-wave-technical-analysis-for.html#more

Updated in comment section of the post :

Observations :

1. Positive divergence in Weekly indicators.

2. Last whole week traded above 8300 and last 4 close above 200dma apprx.

3. Still 50 and 200dma also 20 and 50dma are bearishly aligned.

4. So multiple timeframe contra indications and Greece news keeping the markets choppy.

5. 200dma can be pivot to trade both sides. Bias long with 8200 on closing basis in short term.

6. Light position size till resolves.

June 29, 2015 at 12:22 AM

Low made was 8195 in next trading session with bias Long 8200 on closing basis.

Now further :

A Bullish probability is likely ( depends on Greek News also ) . Please check the charts below for details -

1.

Charts suggest Positional Long Bias holding 8400 on Closing basis ( 200dma and Pattern Neckline at 8380 apprx) . The likely Target of this move may be retest of pivot at 8845 and above it with some short term corrections which can be bought on dips.

Neutral Bias Below 8380 upto 8200.

Even in case of a Bearish Greek News, 8200 remains the level to watch on Closing basis (Hourly T/L support and Pattern validity here). We may get a new low below 7940 only if we break 8200 on Closing, then the likely Target would be in the range of 7500-7700.

Elliott Wave & Technical Analysis for Nifty

noreply@blogger.com (AAR VEE) — Sun, 31 May 2015 18:20:00 +0000

Please check the self explanatory charts below -

1.

Expect a Positional Trending move in short term after RBI Policy declaration this week. The move may or may not be in line with the news so prepare like wise with proper risk management.

Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis for Nifty

noreply@blogger.com (AAR VEE) — Sun, 15 Mar 2015 18:50:00 +0000

Is there a Reversal in sight ? Let's check the last post observations and follow up -

These were the observations of last post ( http://aar-vee.blogspot.in/2015/02/elliott-wave-technical-analysis-for.html ) >>>

Positional Bias in Short term is Up, if keeps above 20dma on closing basis.
( Caution required if we close below 20dma in next couple of sessions)

Short Term Targets may be in the range of 9050-9200 apprx.

Good Probability that we may top out sometime after Budget for a Time wise and may be Price wise bigger correction.

Expect good volatility ahead in next couple of weeks.

These were the follow up observations >>>

AAR VEE said...

UPDATE : 24-02-2015

1. I may have been wrong in counting subwaves in hrly TF and siting the Triangle in b of the c-e.

2. It may be marked as 5 wave up from 8475 to top of 8913 as subwave a , then from 8913 it is in a corrective that has done 38% retrace and finding support.This may be the b subwave.

3. Has whipsawed 20dma for last two sessions and closed below it. Now moving above 20dma may be the signal of end of corrective b of this c-e.
Above 20dma we may be in c of this c-e and move for targets as mentioned in the post.

4. Close below 8700 will negate this probability.

February 24, 2015 at 10:53 PM

AAR VEE said...

Update 27-02-2015
---------------------

The excess of expiry day of closing below 8700 was resolved today by a gap up then consolidating near 20dma for first two hr and then a breakout above20dma followed by a trending session throughout.

Back on track for targets.

February 28, 2015 at 12:31 AM

Akhil said...

Hi Aarvee, you have nailed this one as well, so how low do we go now please :)

Thanks
Akhil

March 9, 2015 at 8:57 PM

AAR VEE said...

@Akhil -

Target as mentioned in post done (with EW equality of c=a=438 at apprx 9108 level). High made 9119.

News of rate cut was sold into.

20dma has been broken as well as TL up from low of 8065. It's now Sell on rise market in short term.

Immediate resistance in 8795-8825 zone.
Trading below which we have target of 8630-45 & then later 8570-50 apprx.

Longs and Buy on dips traders are trapped. May not give a big bounce for them to be out easily.

Close above 8850 will be caution for shorts as of today.

Regards

March 10, 2015 at 12:26 AM

Now further >>>

1.

Positional Bias is Down in Short term, which may even extend further depending on how the short term Supports hold.

Short term support zone is 8470-8550 apprx. If this breaks then we may get to 8370 level quickly.

If it's a wave 4 correction and gives a time and price wise larger correction, then the Positional Targets can be 8370 and 7900 apprx.

Remember that the Long Term chart is still Bullish, so caution while trading on short side. Since the low of 5118 we have been doing only 3 waves down in short term correction and making new highs consistently.

Happy Holi !!!

noreply@blogger.com (AAR VEE) — Fri, 06 Mar 2015 04:57:00 +0000

WISHING A HAPPY & COLORFUL HOLI TO ALL !!!

Elliott Wave & Technical Analysis for Nifty

noreply@blogger.com (AAR VEE) — Sun, 22 Feb 2015 17:02:00 +0000

Nifty's Trend is that of sustained upmove with only Short term corrections and making Higher Lows- Higher Highs.

Lets check out what lies ahead before upcoming Annual Budget -

1.

Positional Bias in Short term is Up, if keeps above 20dma on closing basis.
( Caution required if we close below 20dma in next couple of sessions)

Short Term Targets may be in the range of 9050-9200 apprx.

Good Probability that we may top out sometime after Budget for a Time wise and may be Price wise bigger correction.

Expect good volatility ahead in next couple of weeks.

Cheers !!!

noreply@blogger.com (AAR VEE) — Wed, 31 Dec 2014 09:30:00 +0000

Divergence in Indicators

noreply@blogger.com (AAR VEE) — Sun, 28 Dec 2014 16:55:00 +0000

REGULAR DIVERGENCE :

If price is making lower lows (LL), but the oscillator is making higher lows (HL), this is considered to be regular bullish divergence.

This normally occurs at the end of a down trend. After establishing a second bottom, if the oscillator fails to make a new low, it is likely that the price will rise, as price and momentum are normally expected to move in line with each other.

Below is an image that portrays regular bullish divergence.

Now, if the price is making a higher high (HH), but the oscillator is lower high (LH), then you have regular bearish divergence.

This type of divergence can be found in an uptrend. After price makes that second high, if the oscillator makes a lower high, then you can probably expect price to reverse and drop.

In the image below, we see that price reverses after making the second top.

HIDDEN DIVERGENCE :

Divergences not only signal a potential trend reversal; they can also be used as a possible sign for a trend continuation.

Hidden bullish divergence happens when price is making a higher low (HL), but the oscillator is showing a lower low (LL).

Once price makes a higher low, look and see if the oscillator does the same. If it doesn’t and makes a lower low, then we’ve got some hidden bullish divergence in our hands.

hidden bearish divergence. This occurs when price makes a lower high (LH), but the oscillator is making a higher high (HH). By now you’ve probably guessed that this occurs in a downtrend. When you see hidden bearish divergence, chances are that the pair will continue to shoot lower and continue the downtrend.

Elliott Wave & Technical Analysis for Nifty

noreply@blogger.com (AAR VEE) — Sun, 14 Dec 2014 18:28:00 +0000

Last Post had calculation for the upmove from 7723 to be in final phase and a likely culmination above 8550+ . Now further update -

UPDATE : 07-12-14
------------------

1. The basic targets for V-3 (8575-8610) as calculated in above chart have been achieved.

2. The top at 8627 may have done the vth of the V-3.

3. The TL joining the lows for vth from 8353 up has been broken in last session.

4. After the top of 8627, a 5 wave down and a probable 3 wave up may have been done in 5 min tf ( or probably a last minor up may be pending)

5. The bias is shifting downwards with resistance now in 8550-8610 range. The S/L for this probability is 8628.

6. Break of 8500 and close below it will confirm the downward bias and then may tgt 8400-8350.

7. Any close above 8625 will negate this probability and upmove may resume for higher tgts near 8750 apprx

December 7, 2014 at 11:28 PM

Check the charts carefully for short term and medium term trading insight -

1.

The Trading Bias is Down in Short and Medium term.

Only on close above 8425 the short term bias changes to Neutral as of now.

Short term likely targets on downside at apprx 8175 and then apprx 8050.

Medium term Target zone on downside is apprx 7540-7725.

Elliott Wave & Technical Analysis for Nifty

noreply@blogger.com (AAR VEE) — Sun, 09 Nov 2014 18:13:00 +0000

Check out the probability that lies ahead as of now :

AAR VEE said...

Low of 7723 was made in last session 17-10-14 before this comment

UPDATE : 19-10-2014 :
---------------------

1. Complex corrective from top of 8180 is on.

2. This may be IV-3 or may be larger 4th wave correction. (as in charts above)

3. 50dma was broken convincingly and now last 2 sessions 100dma is supporting . (The trading range mentioned in hrly chart got broken bringing in short term weakness).

4. Correction unfolding is a combination corrective most likely a-b-c-x-a-b-c (Flat-x-may be zz) as of now .

5. Now close above 50dma may signal a likely end of correction and above 20dma as confirmation of it.
Similarly break of 100dma may extend the correction further to 7650-7590 zone.

October 20, 2014 at 12:29 AM

November 2, 2014 at 11:09 PM

AAR VEE said...

UPDATE 02-11-14
----------------

1. As mentioned above and in probable count last post, we did IV-3 at 7723 low ( flat-x-zz), moving up above 50-20dma we got confirmation of end of correction and a firm move above last high of 8180 justifies V-3

2. Now this fast upmove from 7723 can be taken as V-3 and may find positional target in 8425-8550 zone. Right now we may be in the iiird of this V-3.

3. Next week is a truncated week with two trading holidays. We may trade range bound with upward bias and may trade in the 8250-8450 broader range.

November 2, 2014 at 11:19 PM

Below is the updated chart with EW counts further from the last update.

Theoretical Target for Wave V-3

Method 1:

After identification of the wave 4th a new channel can be drawn with Trendline connecting wave 2 and 4 and other running parallel starting from end of wave 3 .The wave 5 may end near the channel top or within it depending on its extension.

Method 2:

The Price projection for a wave 5 may be 38.2 % (min) above the net length of wave 1 to 3.

Method 3:

Most common method of Price projection suggests that the wave 1 and 5 are related with equality (or 1.618, 2.618 fibonacci ratios).

The above mentioned methods are marked in the chart :

Above is just a theoretical exercise to find out a probable target zone for wave V-3 which comes in the range of 8550 + as of now, but the 5th waves have notorious characteristic of ending suddenly or getting extended. So watch for exhaustion signals first near 8450(+-25) and then in the apprx target area as in the chart. Will update further for any change in view.

Trading Wisdom - Basic Preparation

noreply@blogger.com (AAR VEE) — Mon, 27 Oct 2014 16:58:00 +0000

HAPPY DIWALI !!!

noreply@blogger.com (AAR VEE) — Thu, 23 Oct 2014 07:28:00 +0000

WISHING A VERY HAPPY DIWALI !

MAY DIVINE SHOWER ALL WITH PEACE & PROSPERITY !!

GOD BLESS !!!

Elliott Wave & Technical Analysis for Nifty

noreply@blogger.com (AAR VEE) — Mon, 01 Sep 2014 09:30:00 +0000

Let us check the Probability in line with the larger Bullish Trend with Nifty now nearing all time High of apprx 8000 .

THE POST HAS BEEN UPDATED AS ON 28-09-14 with new charts :

1.

4. Caution :

Closing above 8000 level as well as the Top Trendline ( as in the Daily Chart ) may confirm that the Price action is following this Bullish Probability .

Targets of this bullish Probability (if it's V-3) are in excess of 8400 Positionally .

Caution for invalidity of this Probability on close below 7940 (last session's low) and confirmation on break of 7862 only.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

28-09-14
-------------

Following where the observations on various turns of the markets in last series posted as comments in this post

UPDATE 09-09-14
----------------

1. If V-3 started from 7540, it has done 0.62 times wave I-3(886 pts) . Also a 5 wave move can be marked at 8180 top from low of 7540. So min. requirement done.

2. Now the series demand & supply is poised such that a close below 8100 would call for a probable short term top in place at recent high of 8180.

3. Depth of correction (holding of 8000 level in particular) may let us know whether V-3 is over at highs or it's mere corrective which will resume uptrend soon.

UPDATE 16-09-14
----------------

1. The observations in above comment were made a day after 8180 top was formed and series dynamics indicated that below 8100 the balance will tilt towards sellers.
Monday opened gap down below 8100 and closed below it, opening gates for breach of 8000 level today.

2. Now EW suggests that if it is a-b-c correction from top then extended c= 1.62xa is almost done at lows. If it's start of a deeper correction then we are in wave 3 of it and may be in its iiird subwave.
Some support to come at 7890-7915 zone.

3. Resistance now at 20dma . Staying below 20dma we are likely to revisit 50dma now near 7800.

4. Yesterday it had completed Head & Shoulders pattern in hourly tf that started forming from 02-09-14. It retested it's neckline after breaking it yesterday only. It had a target of 120 pts which was also achieved today at apprx 7940

5. Gap pending from first day of this series was filled today at 7959 and another gap remains at 7912 above 7862 .

UPDATE 21-09-14
----------------

1. Of the two probabilities mentioned in above comment, market chose the a-b-c correction from 8180 top to low of 7925 and didn't extend further in 5 waves down.

2. 20dma was sliced through intraday and 8100 held on closing basis in last two sessions.

3. Moving forward, If 8100 is held on closing basis (and 20dma intraday support) we may make a new high above 8200.

4. Break and close below of 20dma and not crossing the 8180 high will start the next leg of downmove.

5. Will re assess the pattern of IV-3 in running channel /expanding triangle (as top trendline was breached comfortably for 2 sessions). So V-3 may have started from 7422 itself instead of 7540

Now Check the self explanatory charts for further insight :

1.

Elliott Wave & Technical Analysis for Nifty

noreply@blogger.com (AAR VEE) — Sun, 10 Aug 2014 18:01:00 +0000

Though majority of the Technical signals are showing a maturing down trend, let us check a bullish probability for the short term -

So the close below 50dma and lower Trendline of the Ending Diagonal pattern (as in the last post) may prove to be a Bear Trap in the short term if the above probability holds good.

Holding the low of last session 7540, it may reverse in the short term and closing above 20dma will give the initial bullish signal. Close above 7700+ may propel it to new high above 7841.

On close below 7540, it may move down with the Larger Trend to whipsaw 7422 and then may be further down towards 7200.

Elliott Wave Analysis for Nifty

noreply@blogger.com (AAR VEE) — Sun, 27 Jul 2014 15:17:00 +0000

Below is a Multi Time Frame chart showing Elliott Wave Probability -

Though the Trend is firmly Up in Higher Time Frames there are some signals of this Upmove stalling in the Short Term and a likely correction to follow. ( It's a counter trend view as of now )

This may happen only keeping below the Top of 7841 made as of now. On a close above 7841, the upmove continues in line with larger Trend.

Elliott Wave & Technical Analysis for Nifty

noreply@blogger.com (AAR VEE) — Sun, 06 Jul 2014 18:35:00 +0000

Event of the Financial Budget is round the corner. Let's check out the Technical Probabilities as of now.

1.

Conclusions :

The Trend in Larger Time Frame is firmly up.

7840-60 may be immediate Resistance zone in the Short term. Close below last session low of 7660 may be a bearish signal trading this week.

Close above the resistance zone and follow up of it may lead to Target of apprx 8100 and above

Break of Lower Trendline and 20 dma may confirm Positional Bearish bias in short term.

Technical Watch :

A Bullish Pattern of Inverted Head & Shoulders had achieved it's target at 7700 earlier.