Saturday Sound Offs-The Blog for the College Football Junkie

Game Preview: Nevada vs. San Jose State

noreply@blogger.com (Eric) — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 19:25:00 +0000

On a side note, "The Week That Was" should get published by Monday morning.

When: 8:30 PM ET, ESPN

Why You Should Care: As bad as San Jose State has been this season, this might be a surprisingly decent game to watch. The Wolf Pack are on fire right now and the Spartans may not have anything to play for, but at home on national television, there could be some extra motivation.

Nevada Will Win Because...: Uh...Rushing offense? San Jose State's run defense has been very, very poor so far this year. They rank 117th nationally and are allowing over 240 yards on the ground per game which is ridiculous. They haven't played a rushing offense as powerful as Nevada's yet (well, besides maybe USC).

San Jose State Will Win Because...: Again, being home on national TV might help out the cause for San Jose State. Their offense has tanked, not as much as the defense, but it's not pretty. However, anything is possible against Nevada's pass defense which is 119th in the country. They could have some of the worst cover DBs in the NCAA.

Keep an Eye on...: SJSU WR Kevin Jurovich. Jurovich might as well be nicknamed Gramps on this team since he's been on the roster since 2004. He suffered from a season-ending case of mononucleosis so he was granted another year. He's a faster receiver than he may get credit for and should have a couple 15+ yarders against Nevada's atrocious pass defense.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Nevada will win, but it will be a surprising struggle. Don't get me wrong, San Jose State isn't very good at all, but Nevada's road efforts have hardly been inspiring and now they'll be out of their comfort zone. Things will go awry for three quarters while San Jose State comes pumped up to play, but the reality of the situation is that the Wolf Pack are too potent rushing the football against an extremely weak defensive front for the Spartans. Nevada will win a lackluster game (relative to their recent success), 35-27.

Bowl Projections: Week 10

noreply@blogger.com (Eric) — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 16:49:00 +0000

New Mexico Bowl: Fresno State vs. UL Monroe*
St. Petersburg Bowl: USF vs. UCF
New Orleans Bowl: Troy vs. Tulsa
Las Vegas Bowl: Utah vs. Cal
Poinsettia Bowl: San Diego State vs. UCLA
Hawaii Bowl: Nevada vs. Marshall
Little Caesars Pizza Bowl: Central Michigan vs. Minnesota
Meineke Car Care Bowl: Clemson vs. Cincinnati
Emerald Bowl: Boston College vs. Stanford
Music City Bowl: North Carolina vs. Tennessee
Independence Bowl: Iowa State vs. Arkansas
EagleBank Bowl: Ohio* vs. ECU*
Champs Sports Bowl: Northwestern vs. Florida State
Humanitarian Bowl: Idaho vs. BYU
Holiday Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Arizona
Armed Forces Bowl: Air Force vs. SMU
Sun Bowl: Oregon State vs. Nebraska
Texas Bowl: Texas A&M vs. Navy
Insight Bowl: Michigan State vs. Missouri
Chick-fil-A Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Ole Miss
Outback Bowl: Penn State vs. South Carolina
Capital One Bowl: Iowa vs. LSU
Gator Bowl: Notre Dame vs. Miami
Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Ohio State
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Pitt
International Bowl: Rutgers vs. Temple
Cotton Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Auburn
Papajohns.com Bowl: West Virginia vs. Kentucky
Liberty Bowl: Houston vs. Georgia
Alamo Bowl: Texas Tech vs. Wisconsin
Fiesta Bowl: USC vs. Boise State
Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. TCU
GMAC Bowl: Northern Illinois vs. Middle Tennessee*
BCS Championship: Florida vs. Texas

* - at-large qualifier

There are a few things here that are worth discussing. First, the at-large scene. With Kansas dropping out, I had Iowa State fill in for the Independence Bowl. With Purdue or Michigan State eligible, the winner of that game should bump either themselves up or somebody else down to the Motor City Bowl if the Big 10 doesn't get two BCS teams. But regarding at-larges, I still have Middle Tennessee going to the GMAC Bowl. UL Monroe would have to fill in for the New Mexico Bowl. I'm not sure whether or not the Humanitarian would want a great matchup like Fresno/BYU or if they would go with the home team from Moscow. My bet would be on the Vandals.

Of course, that would only happen with Boise State getting bumped up to the BCS and that's what I have here. This is almost a perfect storm for two non-BCS teams. Along with Houston and Utah who have some decent non-conference wins to help with the non-BCS image, Boise State and TCU are undefeated with some resume-defining moments. Voters/Bowl committees would have a difficult time explaining how Pac-10 champion Oregon (if they beat Arizona on the road next week) gets in over Boise State, especially with two losses compared to none. Boise State/USC would be a giant draw I think and I don't think the TV execs should underestimate the effect that Boise State had that lingers from the 2007 Fiesta Bowl; America knows who Boise State is and they know them as Cinderella. Granted it won't be ratings gold, but it would be far from a TV disaster. This would force TCU to play yet another ACC team. This could be a TCU/Clemson rematch but I think the Yellow Jackets will hold on to the title.

Also, what about Cincinnati? They're not going to finish undefeated, folks. Listen, I love Brian Kelly and if it came down to 11-1 Cincy or 12-0 Boise State, I think the Bearcats have a better overall record. But I think Pittsburgh is going to get the best of them. People are overlooking that game for some reason. If Cincinnati just gave up 40+ to Connecticut of all teams, how are they going to do against a revitalized Bill Stull and one of the top rushers in the game, Dion Lewis? This game is at Heinz Field too. I wanted to see if I could work both 11-1 Cincy and 11-1 Pitt into the big dance, but it's just not going to happen if the Fiesta takes Boise State as an at-large which I predict they will do.

Tulsa is on the fence right now. They are 4-5, but I think they will close out the year with a win against Memphis and take one from ECU or Southern Miss so I think they will be 6-6. That would be a total disastrous season if they didn't even go to a bowl game. And yes, I still don't have Kansas State being bowl eligible! Believe it or not. This team is not good. I predict that they will lose to Missouri and Nebraska, finish 6-6 when they need to be 7-5 since they played two FCS schools, and not be technically eligible. I'm torn on Michigan State and Purdue, but I think Michigan State will beat them next week, eliminating the Boilermakers.

Game Previews: Week 10

noreply@blogger.com (Eric) — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 08:00:00 +0000

Sacrificial Lambs of the Week (a.k.a., the biggest blowouts)

When: 1:30 PM ET, ESPN Gameplan/SEC Network

Why You Should Care: Get used to some ugly SEC matchups. It's mostly homecoming throughout the Southeastern Conference so every team is pretty much licking their chops to take on some FCS squads.

Furman Will Win Because...: Furman doesn't have a great offense, but at this rate, they might be able to move the football against Auburn. The Tigers defense certainly hasn't been fantastic ranking 70th in total defense. Jordan Sorrells is good enough to frustrate Auburn fans.

Auburn Will Win Because...: Uh....Gus Malzahn? How could you not bring him up when talking about Auburn football? I know he tries to balance things out overall, but things work best when the passing game is moving the chains; that hasn't happened a lot so far. The Purple Paladins have one of the worst FCS pass defenses which should get eaten alive though.

Keep an Eye on...: QB Chris Todd. Todd probably won't be asked to do a whole lot in this game, but he should throw only a couple incompletions while going for 200+ and a score or so. He needs to continue to stay on the right track post-Ole Miss after struggling against Kentucky and LSU.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Furman is 4-4 in the FCS and gave up 52 to both Missouri and Appalachian State. Right. Auburn will win it, 54-7.

When: 5:00 PM ET

Why You Should Care: Is Western Kentucky going to win a game this season? No. Well, if they are at some point, it's not happening here. The Troy Trojans are well on track to win a Sun Belt title after rampaging through some of the tougher opponents in the conference.

Troy Will Win Because...: The offense is operating at another level right now. They rank 6th nationally in total offense, but over their past few games, they have eclipsed 40 points in all of them. Western Kentucky has given up 60+ in back-to-back affairs. You do the math.

Western Kentucky Will Win Because...: While there's not a lot to build around a defense that surrenders 518 yards per game, the offense went off against North Texas last week. Granted, Troy is a different animal than the Mean Green, but 49 points is a solid start to turn around one of the more lackluster units in the nation.

Keep an Eye on...: QB Levi Brown. The Trojan hurler has really found his stride in the pocket just shredding the poor Sun Belt opposition. So far this year he has 14 TDs to go with 4 picks and 2500+ yards so far.

And the Crystal Ball: Brown will have a big day as Troy dominates both sides of the ball, 53-18.

When: 7:00 PM ET, ESPN Gameplan/SEC Network

Why You Should Care: How competitive should this game be? And for that matter, what is up with Ole Miss? They have failed miserably to deliver on their preseason hype. Also, how did Northern Arizona lose to Sacramento State last week? That's the thing I find the most difficult to believe.

Northern Arizona Will Win Because...: The Lumberjacks suffered a shocking loss last week to the Sac State Hornets but at least they have an offense. Led by Michael Herrick, this offense ranks 8th in total offense for the FCS.

Ole Miss Will Win Because...: Yeah, that's fine and dandy, but the Rebels should not have much issue smothering the NAU passing attack with their talented secondary. Ole Miss has one of the better defensive backfields with Kendrick Lewis and Johnny Brown roaming around.

Keep an Eye on...: Those two. If they can limit Northern Arizona's passing game this should be an easy win. If not, well, things could get more dicey than they need to be.

And the Crystal Ball Says: This game will be surprisingly close after one quarter, but that's about all Northern Arizona will be able to take away from this game. Jevan Snead should have his way with a weak pass defense on the part of Northern Arizona. I think the Lumberjacks could move the ball a little bit through the air, but it won't be done with enough consistency. Ole Miss should win by a fairly large margin, 48-13.

Reba on CW, or.... (a.k.a., the worst televised games)

When: 1:00 PM ET, ESPN Gameplan

Why You Should Care: This shouldn't be that entertaining. Will Eastern Kentucky get slaughtered or will Kentucky actually struggle in this one? It's sort of possible, but the in-state intrigue kind of adds to the hype around this game.

Eastern Kentucky Will Win Because...: Their defense is solid. Allowing 18 points per game, they might not get blown out in this matchup. The Kentucky offense is really struggling to throw the football around so there's a chance after all that the Colonels at least stay in the game by the 3rd quarter.

Kentucky Will Win Because...: EKU may not have an answer for RB Derrick Locke. Locke is having a pretty pedestrian season as he isn't going to get 25 carries on a given day, but he's a lot better than anything Eastern has seen so far in the Ohio Valley Conference.

Keep an Eye on...: Eastern Kentucky CB Jeremy Caldwell. At some point you have to wonder how much luck is involved in getting interceptions since they are those "right time, right place" kind of ordeals, but with seven interceptions, Caldwell is tops in the FCS.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Look for Kentucky to pull away later in the game. Not really in the 4th, more like right after halftime. Eastern Kentucky has a lot to play for in this game, such as their pride obviously. Not to mention they have a somewhat sound defensive group. That won't change the fact that they'll get outclassed on offense and defense as the Wildcats take it 40-17 with a late EKU score for good measure.

When: 1:00 PM ET, ESPN Gameplan

Why You Should Care: Actually, this game should be listed under the blowout section in place of NAU/Ole Miss game, but oh well. Tennessee Tech is coached by the outsted former UAB head man Watson Brown, but the Golden Eagles are having a pretty solid season thus far. Can they keep this within 30 points? Who knows?

Tennessee Tech Will Win Because...: Either passing games in the Ohio Valley aren't very good, or TTU's pass defense is actually pretty solid. Regardless, it's safe to say Georgia is a little better than any offense they've faced so far this season. Still, they have the FCS' 18th ranked pass efficiency defense.

Georgia Will Win Because...: This is a team that can still score some points even in a rebuilding mode. Especially against a program the caliber of Tennessee Tech.....Hopefully. And Joe Cox isn't that bad. He'd be better off if he got some help from his surroundings, but he's made enough solid decisions to keep Georgia in games while the defense hasn't picked up the slack.

Keep an Eye on...: WR A.J. Green. Lazy pick, but he should rip Tech's secondary up pretty good. Look for a couple catch-and-runs as he racks up those YAC yards.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Right. Georgia. 53-3.

When: 3:30 PM ET, ESPN Gameplan

Why You Should Care: This is actually a pretty good and fun rivalry game to watch. If you're not familiar with the history of the Wagon Wheel, it goes back quite aways, to 1946. Akron is struggling, but that usually won't matter in this game.

Kent State Will Win Because...: Simply put, they're just better. While Temple may be in the driver's seat of the East, the Golden Flashes will be bowl-bound if they close out the year with two more wins. While Spencer Keith, a true freshman, isn't going to win a Heisman anytime soon, he has been a Godsend for a team that has struggled at the QB position since Julian Edelman had to leave.

Akron Will Win Because...: They're desperate. What better way to fix a miserable season than beating your biggest rival at your almost-brand-new stadium? While the offense has been abysmal, the defense has at least held their own. This should be a low-scoring game without a lot of offensive fireworks so it probably suits Akron just as much as it suits Kent State.

Keep an Eye on...: While the spotlight is on freshman, the redshirt freshman LB from Kent State, Brian Wagner, has had a huge season. He ranks 16th nationally in tackles per game averaging about 10.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Kent State will prove to be more disruptive on defense and that will be the difference in the game. The Zips have had an okay season on that side of the ball especially considering the lack of assistance from the offense, but with the emergence of Jacquise Terry for the injured Eugene Jarvis, Kent State will win this on the ground. Look for the Golden Flashes to win a very competitive rivalry game, 21-18.

These Guys Gotta Show Something (a.k.a., teams with something to prove)

When: 12:00 PM ET, ESPN2

Why You Should Care: At least since 2006, this is the type of game in November that gets stuck with Pam Ward. Not now with Iowa's 9-game winning streak. If you don't think the Hawkeyes have anything left to prove, you might be oh-so wrong.

Northwestern Will Win Because...: This is the type of game that just derails the college football season, isn't it? Once the talking heads and pundits get comfortable and establish what is inevitable, some middle-of-the-pack team comes from nowhere and stuns a favorite. That's the card Northwestern will be playing and while they are never really a great statistical team, they have heart and find ways to win these kinds of games, at least over the years.

Iowa Will Win Because...: If this game was in Evanston, mark me down as an upset believer. Will the pink locker rooms emasculate Northwestern enough to assure victory? Probably not, but being home helps. Iowa may have the killer instinct on offense, but their consistent play from the defense has kept them in every single game this season. They're only giving up 15 points per game so if Northwestern struggles offensively, this game should be over fast.

Keep an Eye on...: QB Mike Kafka. The thing you have to like about Kafka is that while he's not a great passer by any stretch of the imagination, he is pretty good at improvising, especially with this legs. Kafka is due for a breakout type of game to cap of his decent career, so this is suiting.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Look for Northwestern to keep this really, really, really close. Just close enough to make Iowa a few plays away from soiling themselves. That was a little graphic, but you get my point! The Hawkeyes have a flair for the dramatic and it won't stop here. This is a legitimate upset opportunity, but I think Iowa will get another too-close-for-comfort type of win, 24-21.

When: 12:00 PM ET, Big 10 Network

Why You Should Care: Somebody's postseason is toast after this game. Michigan more than likely is not going to beat either Wisconsin or Ohio State, so this is their last realistic opportunity to get to six wins. Purdue is sitting at 3-6 with winnable games coming up against Michigan State and Indiana, so it's possible.

Purdue Will Win Because...: If this is the same team that came to play against Illinois last week, fuh-get-aboud-it. Michigan was downright horrific in a 38-13 loss to a team that hadn't defeated an FBS program. Tate Foricer is having some injury issues and the defense is horrible under Greg Robinson. If Joey Elliot has a good game, the Boilermakers have this in the bag.

Michigan Will Win Because...: Boy wonder, where have you gone? Has Tate Forcier lost the magic? No, there was no magic. He's just a jacked-up freshman who probably parties too hard for a first-year college student and drinks a can of monster per day. This is a young team, so given time, they'll be fine. I think a return to home will still suit them well and even with that drubbing against Delaware State, this is still the nation's 39th ranked offense.

Keep an Eye on...: DE Brandon Graham. Probably the one constant for the defense on Michigan has been Graham. He's the leader on the team in sacks and tackles for loss. He should cause some issues for Purdue offensively.

And the Crystal Ball Says: I don't know what to expect here. These are both mediocre-to-average teams. All I know is that there's not going to be a middle ground--Somebody is going to get blown out. After the 37-0 skull-bashing absorbed by Purdue last week in Madison, I would assume they'd be the ones with their heads still hanging. Michigan isn't going to "get back on track" because they never had a track to begin with, but they'll be "less bad" in a 43-20 win.

When: 12:30 PM ET, Versus

Why You Should Care: Odds are, only one team from the Sunflower State is going bowling this winter. Kansas comes into the game losers of three straight and Kansas State is just average. I guess you could say the same for the Jayhawks. This game contains bragging rights-aplenty, so it should be interesting.

Kansas Will Win Because...: It's Todd Reesing, dude. Is he going to allow a Kansas team who was on the perimeter of the top 10 to fall off the map into obscurity and lose all of those 2007 heroics to end his career without a bowl appearance? (breath). Make no mistake about it, this is still an offense that can move the football that averages 447 yards per outing.

Kansas State Will Win Because...: The Jayhawk D has fallen off the map. The difference between this version of Kansas and the 2007 one is that they used to play much more solid defense. Bill Snyder's resurgence of K-State football is a positive thing for the program, but they need this win if they want to go bowling (must finish 7-5 overall to qualify).

Keep an Eye on...: RB Daniel Thomas. Or should I say converted QB Daniel Thomas? Either way, he and Keithen Valentine have contributed to a rushing attack that Kansas State can build around offensively. They'll have to penetrate a difficult Kansas defensive front.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Considering the rivalry and bowl implications, this certainly has the makings of a fun game. Can Kansas end the skid? Can Kansas State actually win the Big 12 North? A lot of interesting storylines, but I'd like to think Kansas should win. The Jayhawks have a slightly better defense (hard to believe after the past few weeks, but still) and a little more offensive firepower. Even on the road, I'll take Kansas in a high-scoring game, 40-37.

Upset Alert (a.k.a., what it says)

When: 2:00 PM ET, The Mtn.

Why You Should Care: This game isn't going to get a lot of love in the press or much pregame hype but, uh, does this game worry anybody else? Dave Christensen has gotten a lot out of this Wyoming offense that sputtered and stalled all of 2008 and the Cowboys are always that much tougher at home. This screams trap game.

BYU Will Win Because...: With a bye week to stew over that embarrassment that was October 24th's TCU debacle, the Cougars might come out firing on all cylinders. Obviously without the two devastating losses the Cougars suffered from this year, the offense has remained lights out led by Max Hall and Harvey Unga. This isn't a great defensive unit either as Wyoming is ranked 55th in the nation in total D.

Wyoming Will Win Because...: After scoring 10 points overall for the last two weeks, things may seem rough on paper. It took until the fourth quarter for Utah to put this team away at home. While Christensen, who is widely regarded as one of the most fresh offensive minds in the game, hasn't turned around this offense overnight, they are showing some more signs of offensive production. BYU has really had some issues making plays although they have been able to hold serve more times than not on that side of the ball. Plus, Wyoming is home! That's always a positive thing.

Keep an Eye on...: Wyoming DT John Fletcher. Fletcher leads the team in sacks and that's pretty good considering he plays tackle. If he does a good enough job either drawing double teams or finding his way into a collapsing pocket, consider it a win for Wyoming.

And the Crystal Ball Says: I really think this could be a tight game with the Cowboys hosting. If the game is at BYU, probably not much to worry about. Wyoming's offense has generally been night-and-day different depending on the level of play the opposing defense. I think at home against BYU is a game where they can score some points. This is really stupid, but give me Wyoming in Saturday's biggest headscratcher. The Cowboys will get a home upset and win, 34-32.

When: 3:30 PM ET, ABC

Why You Should Care: So yeah, the Pac-10 is still in the balance. With Oregon having road dates with this Stanford team and Arizona, the championship is far from locked up. Jim Harbaugh's teams have a penchant for pulling off these types of wins (hello, 2007 USC). The Cardinal looked turned-around for good and should make this more than just a game.

Oregon Will Win Because...: This is still the same team that carved up the vaunted USC Trojan defense for over 600 yards, right? Plus one for Oregon. The Ducks have one of the top pass defenses in the nation which should mess with the freshman Andrew Luck, as good of a prospect as he seems.

Stanford Will Win Because...: Well, Stanford has a couple things going for them. They're home. They're rested coming off of a bye week. They have excellent pass protection. And they can score as well. With the 5th ranked team in sacks allowed, Luck should be afforded time to dissect the Oregon secondary.

Keep an Eye on...: RB Toby Gerhart. If Stanford can get a consistent running presence up and going, Oregon's defense will have to respect the running game, obviously. Gerhart is 7th nationally in rushing yards per game.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Ugh, I want to pick Stanford so badly but can't quite force myself to pull the trigger. After seeing Oregon dismantle USC on national television, I think it's safe to assume they are playing some of the highest-level football in America right now. Even saying that, Stanford will be pumped up but they won't quite get the upset as they lose, 35-31.

When: 8:00 PM ET, ABC

Why You Should Care: Thank you, ABC, for treating the Big East like a major football conference. It's been awhile. I'm assuming this partly has to do with the UConn story and the tragedy of Jasper Howard, but the national audience is craving some Cincinnati viewing time, so that's probably the crux of this decision.

UConn Will Win Because...: After back-to-back difficult 28-24 losses to West Virginia and Rutgers, their backs are against the wall. They're still playing defense for the most part even though they have struggled in the clutch for those two games. At the RB position, their most reliable bet lies on the shoulders on Jordan Todman and Andre Dixon who are still combining for a very effective rushing game.

Cincinnati Will Win Because...: You can drop all the QBs you want in this system, and the train keeps on a-chuggin'. The emergence of Zach Collaros from the USF game has spilled over into other games for the last two weeks and while Pike should sit out Saturday, Collaros will be fine as a replacement. Under the bright lights of Nippert Stadium, this team is becoming more and more reminiscent of the 2007 Kansas Jayhawks.

Keep an Eye on...: Cincy LB Alex Daniels. Rebuilding defense? Where? That was the big issue coming into September for Cincinnati, but the defense has been more than fine. Daniels has helped the transition with 5 sacks and 37 combined solo and assisted tackles.

And the Crystal Ball Says: This is a game that Cincinnati should handle, but will they crack on late light national television? Maybe. I doubt that they'll lose here, but UConn is bound to play some inspired football. Their defense alone will keep this game within reach, but they will suffer another close, 4th quarter defeat by a score of 30-23.

I Pity Da Fool Who Misses These Games (a.k.a., the best games of the week)

When: 3:30 PM ET, CBS

Why You Should Care: Duh. Does this need to be explained? The one real game that Alabama can lose. Actually, if this game does indeed wind up being a loss, they could drop out of the SEC championship picture entirely.

LSU Will Win Because...: I mean we surely all know about the success that Alabama's defense has had so far for this season, but what about LSU's? This is a team that was constantly dissed as being frauds after their somewhat competitive loss to Florida, but they currently own the nation's 15th ranked total defense and 7th best scoring defense. Also being 8th in turnover margin doesn't hurt your cause.

Alabama Will Win Because...: Never underestimate homefield in these contests. They still have Heisman contender Mark Ingram who is on pace to break some records in Tuscaloosa. Offensively, they still need to get Greg McElroy settled in at QB as he's not quite the effective pocket passer that Saban wants to groom him to be.

Keep an Eye on...: WR Julio Jones. We know he got banged up against Florida International, but he's played in every game besides North Texas. Compared to his stellar freshman season, Jones has been very quiet with a tad over 200 yards receiving at this point in the year. He needs to get more active.

And the Crystal Ball Says: LSU seems like such a disrespected team right now. Nobody is paying much attention because of the dullness of the SEC title race. It's pretty much been declared that Alabama will face Florida for all the marbles. LSU is a very good team, but aren't quite in that echelon. They should earn some more respect with a competitive showing, but they won't win in Tuscaloosa. Bama wins it, 24-13.

When: 3:30 PM ET, ABC

Why You Should Care: Any time the Big 10 title is on the line, it's worth a tune-in. Granted, this could all be moot if Iowa takes care of business next week on the road against Ohio State, but the BCS picture will be altered somehow. A 10-2 Penn State might not even has as much appeal as a 12-0 Boise State if you think about it.

Ohio State Will Win Because...: Terelle Pryor has to break out of his shell someday, right? If his deal is that he wants to develop into the most polished pocket passer possible, Coach Sweater Vest will more than likely delay that progression by one game. If Pryor is released and told to run wild, he might make plays out of nothing and pick up first downs on busted calls.

Penn State Will Win Because...: Penn State may have had an easy overall schedule, but they're proving to be a very efficient football team. They own the best scoring defense in the nation and are currently are smoking teams on offense as well. Daryll Clark isn't getting a lot of national attention, but he's having a tremendously solid season behind center with the 28th rank in total offense per game.

Keep an Eye on...: While this game is a battle of QBs between Clark and Pryor, another interesting matchup is Ohio State's shaky offensive line play against the impressive defensive front of Penn State. Jack Crawford is the stud on the D-line for the Nittany Lions as he has 10 tackles for loss, 5.5 sacks, and 28 tackles on the year.

And the Crystal Ball Says: That should just about sum it up. Homefield advantage + pass rush versus sloppy offensive line = a pretty easy win. Ohio State will stay in it with defense, but Penn State's defensive prowess should prove to be too much here. Nittany Lions win, 27-14.

When: 7:45 PM ET, ESPN

Why You Should Care: Damn, these new one-time uniforms are so awesome. But never mind about that, there's a game to play! Florida State and Clemson will duke it out in what amounts to an ACC Atlantic eliminator game. The Noles have found themselves back in the thick of things while Clemson has turned their season around for the most part.

Florida State Will Win Because...: It's like it's a tragedy of timing: Whenever Florida State's defense is strong, their offense is piss-poor. Whenever their offense is lights out, their defense stinks. The Noles haven't been able to put two and two together since 2005, but regardless, Christian Ponder would be receiving some Heisman love if he were on a more winning team. The Noles lay claim to the nation's 25th ranked total offense so they should have some success on the road against Clemson.

Clemson Will Win Because...: If I sound like I'm repeating myself, I probably am, but it's in Death Valley. C.J. Spiller is probably going to be Clemson's answer to Ponder against a Florida State defense that is abnormally slower-than-usual and finds themselves constantly out of position. Not to mention Spiller on special teams and it's a deadly combo. The speedy Ponder may find it difficult to deal with Ricky Sapp and Da'Quan Bowers coming off the edge.

Keep an Eye on...: WR Bert Reed of Florida State. Am I the only one who thinks he's a star in the making? Ponder definitely spreads the love in the passing game, but the sophomore Reed is leading the team in receptions and receiving yardage.

And the Crystal Ball Says: I like what I'm seeing from Florida State right now (not defensively of course). However, this is just a bad match up for them. For an offense in Clemson that has some speedy playmakers and has found a bit of a groove, the Seminoles should be overmatched defensively. Not to mention the fact that the Tigers have played fantastic pass defense all year and that should throw a monkey wrench into the offensive plans of FSU. Clemson should win it at home, 33-27 in a good game.

When: 8:00 PM ET, ABC

Why You Should Care: Okay Arizona State, what do you got? Sitting at a not-so-pretty 4-4, the Sun Devils are teetering on the brink of bowl eligibility and backing up their disappointing 2008 campaign with yet another lackluster season. USC just got spanked by Oregon last week but they remain on the road in another tough venue in Tempe.

USC Will Win Because...: Danny Sullivan has been far from spectacular so far resulting in a lot of stalled drives. The USC defense may have been "exposed" last week, but this is still a group with oodles of talent waiting to be tapped into. They should mess with Sullivan pretty easily who has shown a tendency to get rattled at times.

Arizona State Will Win Because...: Sullivan will at least have Chris McGaha and Kyle Williams to pitch the football to. Plus, this is a different USC team away from the Coliseum. Remember, they lost to Washington on the road, Oregon on the road, and almost dropped a game to Notre Dame as well on the road. Arizona State could capitalize on that.

Keep an Eye on...: USC S Taylor Mays. Mays is supposed to be the inspirational leader of the defense. Let's see him lead by example by being the emotional captain he's supposed to be. Mays is a great athlete though and should have a fine game defending the pass.

And the Crystal Ball Says: This is a game that the Trojans should take comfortably. I think Arizona State can manage to hang around because of their strong defensive unit and the fact that USC might seem hung over after the disappointing defeat last week. Look for Barkley and the USC offense to get back on track though with a 31-17 victory.

When: 8:00 PM ET, ABC

Why You Should Care: Why is Nebraska beating Baylor 20-10 and losing to Iowa State 9-7? Seriously, what the hell is their problem? Bo Pelini, please fix this offense because it is setting the development of college football back by about 100 years. Thanks in advance. The Big 12 North is so mediocre, so can the Huskers actually step up and steal the division away from Kansas State?

Oklahoma Will Win Because...: Oh yeah, there's this other team still in the thick of finishing the year on a positive note and a 9-3 record. If you asked Oklahoma fans what they'd make of a 9-3 season, I'm sure they'd be a little disheartened. However, without Sam Bradford, that's a positive thing. Still, the story for Oklahoma has been the play of their defense which ranks 11th in total along with allowing 12 points per game.

Nebraska Will Win Because...: At least the defense has been fantastic to make up for the offense's shortcomings. This is why Bo Pelini was hired, right? This is a group that is only giving up 267 yards per game so things certainly could be worse in Lincoln. If Cody Green is going to start (pretty sure that's the case), there's at least a prayer that he'll come out of nowhere and things will begin to click immediately.

Keep an Eye on...: P Tress Way. Yeah, the freshman punter from Oklahoma. He's actually turned out to be one of the top ones in the nation. This will come in handy for what should turn out to be a defensive slugfest. If Nebraska is losing the field position battle, Lord knows they can't get in range for any points.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Oklahoma should win this game. As good as Nebraska may be defensively, they have no answer for the Sooner D. Even though Landry Jones will have a tough time, the Huskers have just been so pathetic on offense recently, I can't imagine them beating a good team with that group. Sooners get a solid road victory, 24-10.

Best of the Rest (a.k.a., what it says)

When: 12:21 PM ET, ESPN Gameplan/SEC Network

Why You Should Care: Arkansas isn't necessarily a lock for a bowl game at this point, fellas. They need to win two of four against South Carolina, Troy, Mississippi State, or LSU. Definitely doable, but it's not written in stone either. South Carolina just was dealt a really tough loss against Tennessee which set this program back a little bit.

South Carolina Will Win Because...: Spurrier's offense may be in some hot water, but the defense, specifically in the secondary, is playing air-tight right now. Arkansas should have the same types of issues they had against Ole Miss if they fall in love with the pass too much.

Arkansas Will Win Because...: The Gamecock offense has pretty much fallen flat on its face. Yes, it may be true that Arkansas can't tackle, but if South Carolina can't execute it won't make much of a difference.

Keep an Eye on...: QB Ryan Mallett. Mallett needs a big day and he'll get a huge test. This could be the best secondary he'll face all year outside of Florida and it's probably on par with Ole Miss.

And the Crystal Ball Says: This game could really go either way and while the match up suggests South Carolina, I'll take Arkansas as the home team here. I think it's a testament to how good Arkansas' passing game could be that after squaring off against all of these talented pass defenses, they have come out of it ranked 14th in the nation. I'll take Petrino and the offense here, 30-23.

When: 2:30 PM ET, NBC

Why You Should Care: Is Navy good enough to actually pull this off? Doubt it. But it's Navy/Notre Dame! If you don't watch, you're not an American.

Navy Will Win Because...: If you want to lambaste the Midshipmen schedule which is usually littered with soft teams, their competitiveness against Ohio State and Pitt has to count for something. Those teams are arguably as good if not better than Notre Dame. Even though Navy will miss out on taking advantage of the juicy Notre Dame pass defense, the Irish are confused defensively no matter what play is being called.

Notre Dame Will Win Because...: Clausen. Chuck. Tate. Catch. Lather. Rinse. Repeat. Navy will have no prayer of maintaining the Notre Dame passing game. Nobody has so far pretty much.

Keep an Eye on...: Notre Dame TE Kyle Rudolph. With all of the attention being paid by Navy's defense on their athletic skill guys, Rudolph should get plenty of open looks up the middle. Look for Weis to exploit that.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Notre Dame should win this by a considerable margin. You can't like the odds of them actually holding the future #1 draft pick at bay (my premature guess for April 2010). Notre Dame wins, 45-20.

When: 3:30 PM ET, ABC

Why You Should Care: Man, Wake Forest is kind of disappointing. What's sad is that this is the type of year in the Atlantic that a team like Wake can jump up and surprise people, but they just keep on taking blow after blow. Georgia Tech on the other hand is looking more and more like a top 10 team every week save for a couple bothering defensive lapses against Vanderbilt.

Wake Forest Will Win Because...: They're familiar with the Paul Johnson-tinged triple-option. This is a team that has squared off against Navy three times in the last two years. Yes, they've lost two of those against the Middies, but their defense has played fine. It's the offense that has had some problems, especially recently. It's mostly due to turnovers. If they can hang on to the football, things might be looking up for the Demon Deacons.

Georgia Tech Will Win Because...: This is a team with definite issue on defense, but that won't stop the option offense from scoring some major points. This is a team that's averaging over 300 yards rushing per game and has some of the biggest passing plays in the game since, as expected, defenses aren't expecting the long ball on a given play.

Keep an Eye on...: GT WR Demaryius Thomas. Hey, any time you're averaging 24 yards a catch, something is working. You have to give Thomas some credit for sticking through with the regime change as he realized he wasn't going to be the main focus in the offense. He still has, however, managed to put up some impressive numbers with 800+ yards receiving so far this season.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Georgia Tech should take care of business here. Wake Forest is struggling even with the close call against Miami last week, but they won't entirely be able to handle the option game of the Yellow Jackets. Look for close to 300 yards rushing and a solid day at the office, good for a 38-26 win.

When: 3:30 PM ET, CBS College Sports

Army Will Win Because...: I haven't been keeping up with the news lately, but with the entire tragedy encompassing Fort Hood, the thoughts and prayers of America are with the armed service community. It highlights the fact that these young adults will soon be on to bigger and more dangerous things than college football as this is only a temporary outlet for entertainment for both players and fans alike. Regardless, this is a major rivalry game and has attracted the attention of the College Gameday crew, so on the field there has to be something going on!

Army Will Win Because...: While Army may have an inferior defense and inferior skill when running the option, that's not to say they can't win this game. It's a rivalry and you have to consider the fact that they can prepare for option offenses easily since that is their base offense, after all.

Air Force Will Win Because...: Their defense is a lot better than the Black Knights. While Army's defense relies on time of possession and controlling the clock, Air Force actually has enough talent to beat another offense straight up. Ranking 8th in total defense, they of all teams should know how to stop Army's option game.

Keep an Eye on...: Air Force RB Asher Clark. While Jared Tew will get most of the tough yards to keep the defense honest on the triple option, Asher Clark is going to be one running circles around Army's defensive secondary. Look for him to get to the edge and bust some big gains in this game.

And the Crystal Ball Says: It's certainly not Rich Ellerson's fault. Ellerson has a system in place and he's slowly building this program, but there's only so much that can be established in year one. Air Force will do their thing by running a tremendously efficient option game and playing very solid defense en route to a 28-14 win.

When: 7:00 PM ET, FSN

Why You Should Care: This game will be pretty big in determining the Pac-10 bowl pecking order. Both are locks to make it at this rate, but the Beavers will be looking for some respect and perhaps a couple top 25 votes. Besides that, it sounds like it'll be an evenly contested game.

Oregon State Will Win Because...: Sean Canfield should have a field day. While Canfield and Moevao have had a confusing time together at QB for the Beavers over the last few years, Canfield has taken hold of the starting job and is having a nice season. California ranks 115th against the pass right now and is really struggling against any passing game with a pulse.

Cal Will Win Because...: Jahvid Best might be running into the teeth of the Oregon State defense, but the Beavers aren't going to make plays in the backfield at all. They have struggled mightily at generating pressure of any sort. Not to mention, their secondary might be worse than California's as a result of that.

Keep an Eye on...: QB Kevin Riley. It's funny how Riley gets all of this criticism, but he's turning in a nice overall season. Tedford isn't asking him to be Aaron Rodgers exactly right now, but he's thrown for 13 TDs and only 2 picks.

And the Crystal Ball Says: I'm going to have to go with Cal here. Their offense at home seems to have the advantage against Oregon State with the inability of the Beaver defense to get pressure of any sort against Cal. This should allow for Riley to have time to make good judgments downfield. They should win it, 40-31.

Bonus Pick'em

Miami 28, Virginia 10
Michigan State 34, Western Michigan 14
Minnesota 36, Illinois 13
West Virginia 38, Louisville 17
UCLA 27, Washington 17
North Carolina 28, Duke 24
Tulane 31, UTEP 28(****should have been on "Upset Alert"****)
Houston 46, Tulsa 40
Colorado State 24, UNLV 20
Fresno State 30, Idaho 28

Game Preview: Boise State vs. Louisiana Tech

noreply@blogger.com (Eric) — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 20:51:00 +0000

When: 8:00 PM ET, ESPN2

Why You Should Care: Maybe if this was 2009 Boise State @ 2008 Louisiana Tech this would be a lot more interesting. As it stands right now, Louisiana Tech hasn't exactly disappointed, but they have reeked of mediocrity especially after handing Utah State their first FBS win of the year on the road. Even so, they're at home, so this could be close.

Boise State Will Win Because...: First words that come to mind, as if it needs to be repeated, is that this team is efficient. They put the clamps down on defense and the offense plays pitch and catch consistently. Plus, you do have to take into account the fact that this team is on a mission trying to blow out WAC dregs by more than TCU blows out MWC dregs. It's an arms race!

Louisiana Tech Will Win Because...: If there's any venue in the WAC that is kind of the anti-Hawaii with respect to location, it's Ruston's own Joe Aillet Stadium. Is Louisiana even considered "West"? I don't think so. Anyway, teams normally struggle when they head out there. QB Ross Jenkins has done enough to get wins (but the rest of the team hasn't quite put it together) and Daniel Porter is a pretty special RB, so we'll see if they can have big days.

Keep an Eye on...: Boise WR Austin Pettis. If Moore is #1 in passing efficiency, he has to thank somebody besides his offensive line. Pettis has done a great job stepping in as the go-to guy for the Bronco passing game and should have a decent day even against Louisiana Tech's respectable secondary.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Taking into account the travel distance along with Louisiana Tech playing some average-to-solid defense, Boise State will win this by enough. They won't get credit for earning a big-time blowout, but it'll be a disinteresting game when it's decided after the first quarter. Boise State will take it, 42-17.

I Walk the Lines: Week 10

noreply@blogger.com (Eric) — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 19:50:00 +0000

Hey guys, I'm really sorry about the sparse posting here. Believe me, I'm trying! I've been trying to get a For-Real-Heisman post done, but haven't completed it, so I'll save it for the beginning of next week. I'll try to pick up the pace a little bit here. Anyway, the lines for this week! I was an atrocious 2-5 last week which I think might be the only time I've been worse than 3-4 overall. The lines come from CFP via VegasInsider.com. Overall, SSO is 29-21 in this segment after the debacle that was Week 9.

Kent State -2 @ Akron - What? Really? I know the MAC has a tendency to have a lot of parity where even the suckier teams can find ways to compete with the upper-tier on a given weekend, but this line seems a little off. I realize it's the battle for the Wagon Wheel and that it's the biggest rivalry game for each of these schools, but 2 points for the likely-bowl-bound Golden Flashes? Nah. Akron (who seems like they get featured on this segment every week) is playing true freshman Patrick Nicely at QB. While he's filled in nicely (pun intended), this Zip offense has no flash whatsoever. I mean, yeah, I guess KSU's is pretty bad themselves, but Akron actually hasn't scored more than 20 points since Week 4 in a loss to Central Michigan. I doubt they'll flip the switch in this game. Again, being a rivalry, it should be closer than the records suggest, but even a FG win would go for Kent State here so take the Golden Flashes.

Oklahoma -6.5 @ Nebraska - Nebraska has officially lost it on offense. There is no punch whatsoever. Worse yet, they cost me a game on the road against Robert-Griffin-less Baylor! Really? 20-10? It's in Waco, but come on. The Corhuskers have issues aplenty right now while Landry Jones has settled into his role as the next Rhett Bomar. Next Jason White. Is there a QB who wasn't a bust at the next level or ran into issues with car dealerships? Okay, let's just call him the next Sam Bradford. There. Even though Oklahoma is on the road, that didn't stop Nebraska from sucking against Iowa State. This is a game that OU should be able to win by double digits and even a TD victory gets the win here. Take Oklahoma -6.5.

Troy -24 @ Western Kentucky - Huh. This is a little tougher than it may look on the surface. Earlier this season, South Florida had a similar spread and I actually lost that against the Hilltoppers. But this Troy team has gone insane in Sun Belt play. They've averaged 44 points over the last three games and Western Kentucky has surrendered 60+ in their last two affairs against Middle Tennessee and North Texas. While I doubt Troy will score 60, I think they're a lock for about 50 points and their defense that is perennially chalked with a couple NFL draftees per year should keep the not-so-vaunted Hilltopper offense at bay pretty easily. They'll win by 30+, so go with Troy -24.

Wisconsin -5 @ Indiana - I'm assuming this is the auto-respect that oddsmakers give teams who had surprisingly good outings the previous week. Indiana wasn't supposed to have any business in competing against top 5-ranked Iowa, but some how they defied the laws of physics and did just that. Now home, can they cover this spread with the Badgers being favored by five? I wouldn't think so. The Hoosiers have suffered from some really tough defeats, namely against Iowa, Northwestern, and Michigan, but Wisconsin should overpower Indiana's average run defense with Clay and Brown. Wisconsin has always had their fair share of bruising backs, but these guys form a pretty special combination. Wisconsin though has looked abnormally soft on defense, so I would be wary of this pick, but I think I like Wisconsin -5 here.

UTEP -10.5 @ Tulane - UTEP just lost to UAB at home. I know, I'm as shocked as you are. Sitting at 3-5 with some solid wins and some embarrassing losses, the Miners are a tough team to figure out so you never know what you're going to get on a weekly basis. With Tulane easily being one of the lesser teams in the nation, they have found themselves outscored by 85-6 over the last two weeks against Southern Miss and LSU. Ouch. Still, doesn't this seem like one of those WTF C-USA games that makes absolutely no rational sense as to why it is competitive? I'm getting that vague feeling here. With Tulane just about down-and-out, it makes no sense for them to rise up and knock off UTEP at home, but C-USA West doesn't abide by rationality or logic. Even if the Green Wave don't win, I do think they will find their offensive stride and challenge UTEP to keep it within a 10 point loss. I'd actually go with Tulane in this one +10.5.

Oklahoma State -7.5 @ Iowa State - I'm going to get burned by taking all of these road favorites, I just know it. How though? Is Iowa State really that respected? They have no good wins this entire season. Baylor, North Dakota State, Kent State, and Army don't count. I can't even give them credit for beating Nebraska. Oklahoma State got throttled last week against Texas and while the unbelievably hypocritical and moronic NCAA suspended Dez Bryant for the rest of the year, that was another set back this team didn't want to have to suffer. But for an interesting little tidbit of information in what has become an annual ritual for Oklahoma State, they have the Big 12's and the nation's best offensive line. If Zac Robinsion can sit around in the pocket, he should eat Iowa State's poor pass defense and poor pass rush for lunch. This game has "Oklahoma State by 20" written all over it. Go with the Cowboys.

UL Monroe @ North Texas -1 - Excuse me, who's favored here? This line makes about no sense. Or does it? It's a tough call. Going based purely on records, you'd have to say UL Monroe looks like a superior team, but with a sophomore and untested QB in Cody Wells, the Mean Green will be looking to pick off a decent Sun Belt win at home. Riley Dodge and the UNT offense has gone ballistic once they hit the meat of the Sun Belt schedule and most of that can be attested to Lance Dunbar. The sophomore RB has basically been a Messiah for this offense that had struggled dating back to the end of 2007. Even so, UL Monroe still has Frank Goodin to lean on against a defense that has gone in the opposite direction of the offense for UNT. North Texas just gave up 49 points to Western Kentucky last week. There you go, take UL Monroe.

Game Previews: 11/05

noreply@blogger.com (Eric) — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 18:58:00 +0000

When: 7:30 PM ET, ESPN 360

Why You Should Care: Can Temple keep it going? Odds are, yes. However, I'm not sure whether or not you can count out Miami OH. Even though I never got around to doing a full-blown preview of Week 9, Toledo was on my upset watch, I swear! But I didn't see the RedHawks getting win numero uno under Haywood, so I can't take credit for that. The Owls have to back up the hype on Thursday night, so that alone makes this game worth a watch.

Miami OH Will Win Because...: Momentum. It's something that's foreign to this team, but with a win under their belts, are they actually ready to close out the season on a positive note? Don't get me wrong, the offense remains atrocious, but the defense has picked up some of the slack at least in MAC play. Zac Dysert has at least given the program some hope, so they have that going for them.

Temple Will Win Because...: Vaughn Charlton has been in this program forever and while he's doing what he has to at QB, the star of this offense is definitely Bernard Pierce. Pierce is one of the more underrated RBs in the conference this season as he's averaging almost 130 yards rushing per game. That alone against Miami OH's soft defensive front will do enough damage to seal the deal on this game.

Keep an Eye on...: Those much ballyhooed recruiting classes for Al Golden are finally starting to kick in, and some of that credit has to go to sophomore LB Adrian Robinson. Robinson has been very active in defending the pass with the team lead in sacks (9). The RedHawks are ranked second to last in protecting the QB.

And the Crystal Ball Says: The dynamic defense of Temple and legs of Bernard Pierce will win this game. Miami OH has a win and while that's a good thing for this team who tanked early and often, the Owls have too much momentum and appear to be primed for an 8 or 9 win season. This game should go to Temple in a slightly-competitive matchup, 32-17.

When: 7:30 PM ET, ESPN

Why You Should Care: Can ECU knock off the Hokies? If there's any week to do it, it was probably last week with an unprepared Virginia Tech team, but if they don't snap out of this funk, it can happen. Thursday nights are really odd and confusing some times, so an upper-tier C-USA team can knock off a top 25 group at home. The Pirates bested the Hokies in a surprise to open the 2008 season, so this might be a revenge trip.

Virginia Tech Will Win Because...: It took a defense the caliber of North Carolina to finally stop the Hokies, but it happened. ECU may be solid defensively for a non-BCS team, but Tyrod Taylor and Ryan Williams combined to make a solid 1-2 punch for a stretch of games in between Marshall and Boston College. Overall, Virginia Tech averages 30 points per game and ECU's offense has struggled; don't expect the Pirate O to keep pace. Also, ECU in their non-conference games weren't all that competitive against North Carolina and West Virginia.

ECU Will Win Because...: We know once teams hit conference play in non-BCS conferences that their stats get pumped up automatically (see: Troy, BYU, Central Michigan, etc.), but this ECU defense may have really turned a corner. Rice and Memphis are no Virginia Tech offensively, but SMU has been the only team in C-USA to have scored more than 20 points on the Pirates.

Keep an Eye on...: RB Ryan Williams. He was my player to keep an eye on last week, and he'll be so again for tonight. It'll be interesting to see if this freshman has a head on his shoulders who can absorb a blow as devastating as that fumble last week.

And the Crystal Ball Says: This will be a tight game mainly due to the fact that ECU is at home and Virginia Tech might be hung over after two straight losses. I expect VT to settle in and gain confidence as the game goes on as ECU just doesn't have the depth or horses to pull off this upset twice in a row. Look for the Hokies to pull away in the 4th and win, 28-20.

When: 7:30 PM ET, ESPNU

Why You Should Care: Okay Eastern, unless you want to win a game, you need to start scoring. With the Andy Schmitt injury, the Eagles have relied on Alex Gillett and Kyle McMahon at QB. Northern Illinois on the other hand look to be competing for the MAC West if they can run the table in this stretch of easy games to wrap the year up against Central Michigan.

Eastern Michigan Will Win Because...: They'll rally.......Maybe? Look, if this group is going to win once it'll have to be on the road against Akron. Not coming here, sorry. I can't even make a case for Eastern.

Northern Illinois Will Win Because...: The rushing attack. As I've mentioned before, Eastern's pass defense has looked solid and it sort of is, but the opposition loves running the football against them. Eastern is 120th against the run going up against the top attack in the MAC.

Keep an Eye on...: Meco Brown and Chad Spann. These guys should carve the Eagles rush D up pretty good. You can bank on a combined total of 200 yards for these two.

And the Crystal Ball Says: This game won't be relatively interesting or exciting as Northern Illinois should dominate both sides of the ball. The Eagles are certainly one of the worst teams in the nation and they won't have much of a shot at winning here. NIU will take it, 30-6.

Game Preview: Bowling Green vs. Buffalo

noreply@blogger.com (Eric) — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 18:56:00 +0000

When: 7:00 PM ET, ESPN2

Why You Should Care: Nothing beats a Tuesday night match up between mediocre MAC teams, right? Actually, if you think there are better things to do on a Tuesday night, you may be mistaken as this should be a competitive game. Besides Rece Davis (I'm assuming he gets the call? EDIT: Oh God, it's worse than I thought! Bob Wischusen!) whom I love in the studio but not in the booth, there's a lot to like about this game. The loser will be pretty much eliminated from the bowl chase.

Bowling Green Will Win Because...: While I'm personally disappointed that Dave Clawson has abandoned the run entirely with a back the caliber of Willie Geter, he has reason to; the passing game is stellar. Tyler Sheehan is playing pitch-and-catch with Freddie Barnes who leads the NCAA in receptions per game and receiving yards per game. Buffalo struggled in their last game against Tim Hiller, so Bowling Green should move the ball almost at will here.

Buffalo Will Win Because...: Being at home will be beneficial. For these smaller schools, the mid-week games are actually pretty big deals so the fans will be excited even if the passion is tough to translate on-screen. QB Zac Maynard has been coming along and should be primed for a big 2010, but with a player like Namaan Roosevelt to work with, Buffalo should be able to score some points against the mediocre defense of the Falcons.

Keep an Eye on...: Buffalo WR Brett Hamlin. While Roosevelt may get all of the attention, that's a good thing for Hamlin. He's been quietly productive with 50 grabs and 666 yards receiving (uh-oh). If Roosevelt demands some extra defenders, Hamlin will be crucial on the intermediate routes as a security blanket for Maynard.

And the Crystal Ball Says: I like Bowling Green in this game. I'm probably wrong again after having a pretty tough week, but the Falcons' passing game should get the job done. This is a team that will probably rally to try to make a bowl game and they should finish 6-6 with an easy remainder of the schedule. Neither defense is anything to write home about and while Buffalo's defense may be statistically better, they don't have enough game-changers to make BGSU's vaunted passing game sweat. Falcons win it, 34-28.

The Week That Was: Week 9

noreply@blogger.com (Eric) — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 22:05:00 +0000

1. Men of Troy "Quack" Under Pressure

You'd think anybody with a pair of eyeballs could have seen this coming. Actually, that's a little rough; anybody with a brain wouldn't have picked Cal to win the Pac-10 like I did, so I don't much room to talk. But it did honestly irk me when people thought things would stay normal after the offseason that USC experienced.

They were totally rebuilding on defense. This shouldn't have come as a surprise to anybody. Granted, it's the Trojans, but the minute Pete Carroll began spinning the Sanchez/NFL situation, something smelled fishy. After all, Pete Carroll has a job and a team to worry about. You bet he was banking on returning a Heisman-caliber QB to help his rebuilding team win the Pac-10 and maybe win a national title. Instead, he's taking his lumps with a true freshman QB. Even with this hiccup and an almost certain loss out on a Pac-10 championship, this USC program will return to championship form starting in 2010. As long as Carroll is recruiting at the level he is, this won't turn into a Michigan or a Nebraska who seem to be former national powers scrambling for answers.

2. Should NCAA Smoke Blount Once and For All? & Other Oregon Thoughts

Wow, I must be the king of lame puns today. Am I the only one who finds the NCAA extremely hypocritical in pondering the reinstatement of Blount (more than likely he will be reinstated) and the idea that Dez Bryant is out for an entire season? Every season the NCAA appears to be more and more of a joke. Let me get this straight: Blount displayed the worst sportsmanship in sports since Ron Artest (and would have gone into Ron Artest-mode if not restrained) and Dez Bryant "lies" about not doing anything wrong then Bryant becomes the poster boy for the NCAA to say, "you don't f*** with us!" What a joke.

Anyway, how about them Ducks? Do they even need LeGarrette Blount at this rate? LaMichael James has been out of this world. He ran for 7.6 ypc against USC. Even though as I mentioned earlier that USC is rebuilding the defense, that is still pretty incredible. Oregon racked up over 600 yards on this team in order to deliver the largest defeat in over a decade of football for USC. That is saying something, and the Ducks have earned a boatload of respect for it. I suspect that homefield has a lot to do with this though. I'm just saying if the game was in USC, it may have been an Oregon win but it would have been a lot closer. Anybody notice how Oregon State and Oregon have picked on USC over the past few years in the Beaver State? I don't want to take away from the win at all, to be clear, just mentioning something I thought was interesting. The Ducks are certainly in the driver's seat to win the Pac-10, but they might stumble once more against Arizona, Stanford, or Oregon State.

3. Black Helmets and Black Pants Couldn't Save Georgia

Well, that was expected to happen. Florida beats Georgia big. Yawn.

This is a team that wasn't expected to do more than win 7 games with their ridiculously difficult schedule and their losses on offense. However, you can also say in the same breath that they have been disappointing. Not being all that competitive in some matches, the Bulldogs haven't been remotely careful holding on to the football by challenging Miami OH for the worst turnover margin in the nation (currently stands at 119th). Now, some are clamoring for his job. I saw where there was a rumor around some message boards about canning the Georgia head coach, there is a FireMarkRicht.com already running (I think it has been for some time), and just Googling "Fire Mark Richt" will get you plenty of feisty, angered, and distraught Georgia football fans. They need to cool off. This is the first average season for Georgia under Richt. During his tenure, Georgia's worst win total was 8 in his first season at the helm. Obviously that will be surpassed in 2009, but teams have ups and downs. Hundreds of coaches would kill for Richts stats.

4. Poor Michigan State and Indiana

Holy crap. I don't think I've ever seen as many slugs-to-the-guts in one season as these two teams have endured. Even Job must feel some sympathy for the Hoosiers and Spartans. Only an act of God could keep these teams from hanging their heads and calling it quits, and in all honesty, I wouldn't blame them if they did.

Here's Michigan State's misery chronicled: Gives up last-minute TD to Central Michigan, fails to recover onside kick, gives up last-second FG to CMU. In Notre Dame territory, Kirk Cousins throws INT in end zone to lose. Michigan State scores in waning minutes only to lose to Iowa on last play of the game. Michigan State pulls to within one point of Minnesota on the road with 8 minutes of play only to give up a TD near the end of the game to lose. How about Indiana? Loses to Michigan on a blown INT call by referees after a loooong review. Obviously they got smoked by Ohio State and Indiana. Leads Northwestern 28-3 in the second quarter only to lose 29-28 on a last-second FG. Leads top 5 Iowa but loses by giving up 28 fourth quarter points. What's funny is that while Indiana is actually exceeding expectations coming into the year, Michigan State is a little more solid defense and a killer instinct away from being this year's Iowa.

5. At-Large Battles

I may be mistaken by including Kent State, who is 5-4 overall and 4-1 in MAC play, in the pool of at-large contenders, but it does depend on what they do from here on out. The Golden Flashes are having a really nice season in what basically could have resulted in the firing of Doug Martin if there weren't any results. The race in the MAC East will get really interesting if Ohio, Kent State, and Temple all finish with 7+ victories. At least one MAC school would be on the short-list for an at-large bid.

Elsewhere, the Sun Belt should be capable of fielding two bowl squads this year. Middle Tennessee is well on their way to a 7-5 mark or possibly an 8-4 record. I think the conference does have a sleeper waiting to make a run and that might very well be the UL Monroe Warhawks. Sophomore QB Cody Wells has been trying his best to replace Revell who just so happened to get knocked out before two of their biggest games of the season against possible-upset-ee Kentucky and eventual Sun Belt champ Troy, but he's doing okay. He's thrown 5 scores and 6 picks, but with more experience, those INTs should be toned down a bit. They'll be looking for at least a 6-6 mark with games coming up against North Texas and Western Kentucky, so they will have to pick off one between UL Lafayette and Middle Tennessee.

SSO's Totally Worthless Top 25:

1. Texas
2. Florida
3. Alabama
4. TCU
5. Cincinnati
6. Iowa
7. Boise State
8. Oregon
9. Penn State
10. LSU
11. Georgia Tech
12. Miami
13. Pitt
14. USC
15. Ohio State
16. Houston
17. Utah
18. Notre Dame
19. Virginia Tech
20. Arizona
21. Oklahoma
22. Wisconsin
23. Oklahoma State
24. Cal
25. USF

Others Receiving Meaningless Consideration: South Carolina, Auburn, Boston College, Oregon State, USF

Game Balls!

It's probably safe to say that Masoli has had better days operating the Oregon spread offense and while you could definitely make a case for LaMichael James to be the MVP from the Oregon/USC game, Masoli did a fantastic job managing the offense and finding weakspots in the Trojan defense. Masoli finished with 222 yards passing and a score along with 164 rushing yards and another score.

Am I nuts if I think Lance Dunbar is going to go all LaDanian Tomlinson on everybody and win a rushing title before his career is up? Only a sophomore and the backup to Cam Montgomery before the start of the season, Dunbar has taken the position by storm ranking 9th in the NCAA in rushing yards per game. Dunbar had 227 yards on 23 carries against Western Kentucky. Yes, it's Western Kentucky, but still....That's almost a first down per touch. Riley Dodge also had a stellar day.

And the gold game ball will have to go to Bernard Pierce, the RB from Temple. A lot like Dunbar, he had a similarly effective day on the ground running for 267 yards on 29 carries to go with 2 scores. He's been an integral part in Temple's turnaround and their path to make it to their first bowl game in.....Well, a really really long time.

I hate to keep bringing up Boise State and the whole BCS debate here, but let's ask the question anyway: Is it possible for a pollster to have Oregon ahead of Boise State after this week? Yes, it actually is believe it or not. As much as the rankings system is a crapshoot, you can apply whatever standard or criteria you want to in your poll, as long as you are consistent and can back it up. Because Boise State beat Oregon and is undefeated, that for me puts Boise State ahead of the Ducks. However, you could easily argue that since college football isn't defined by or confined to Team A beats Team B, Therefore Team A > Team B logic. Boise State was at home and the game was before Labor Day. Did that have anything to do with it? It's when Boise State plays at home that they play so well. They've had a lot less success on the road. The game was also before Labor Day, so we can take that into account. It was opening week after all. Maybe this Oregon team has rallied and is different than the one we saw in Weeks 1 and 2? Let's not forget, they didn't start steamrolling "everyone" until they ran into California. They beat Purdue and Utah at home by a touchdown. If you're going to rank teams on how good you think they are as of today, you'd be perfectly justified in ranking Oregon ahead of Boise. I look at things through the scope of the entire season, so I don't do that. Whatever floats your boat, I just wanted to play devil's advocate for a minute.

Word of the Week: Truculent
-adj

1. Fierce; savage; ferocious; barbarous.

This word is good for all of the rabid fans out there and impatient critics. I haven't seen this much knee-jerk reaction since that one NBA season (2003-2004?) where firing coaches was the new black. Fans of Georgia and Michigan want Mark Richt and Rich Rodriguez out immediately. This is surprising as I thought Georgia fans would recognize the amount of success they have had recently under Richt. I understand there aren't the title banners and all of that, but this is one of the healthiest teams in the SEC. Michigan on the other hand is being led by true freshman QBs, still raw position players, lineman who are still trying to get lean enough to run the spread effectively, and a defense in a state of flux. If you want to fire defensive coordinators Martinez or Robinson for being all-around incompetent, be my guest. Just give these two guys time and results will follow.

Bowl Projections: Week 9

noreply@blogger.com (Eric) — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 17:12:00 +0000

New Mexico Bowl: Idaho vs. Ohio*
St. Petersburg Bowl: USF vs. UCF
New Orleans Bowl: Troy vs. Tulsa
Las Vegas Bowl: Utah vs. Oregon State
Poinsettia Bowl: San Diego State vs. Fresno State*
Hawaii Bowl: Nevada vs. Marshall
Little Caesars Pizza Bowl: Central Michigan vs. Iowa State*
Meineke Car Care Bowl: Clemson vs. Pitt
Emerald Bowl: Boston College vs. Stanford
Music City Bowl: North Carolina vs. Tennessee
Independence Bowl: Kansas vs. Arkansas
EagleBank Bowl: Duke vs. ECU*
Champs Sports Bowl: Northwestern vs. Florida State
Humanitarian Bowl: Boise State vs. BYU
Holiday Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Cal
Armed Forces Bowl: Air Force vs. SMU
Sun Bowl: Arizona vs. Missouri
Texas Bowl: Texas A&M vs. Navy
Insight Bowl: Michigan vs. Nebraska
Chick-fil-A Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Ole Miss
Outback Bowl: Wisconsin vs. South Carolina
Capital One Bowl: Ohio State vs. LSU
Gator Bowl: Notre Dame vs. Miami
Rose Bowl: Iowa vs. Oregon
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Penn State
International Bowl: Rutgers vs. Temple
Cotton Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Auburn
Papajohns.com Bowl: West Virginia vs. Kentucky
Liberty Bowl: Houston vs. Georgia
Alamo Bowl: Texas Tech vs. Minnesota
Fiesta Bowl: USC vs. TCU
Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Cincinnati
GMAC Bowl: Northern Illinois vs. Middle Tennessee*
BCS Championship: Florida vs. Texas

* - at-large qualifier

Yikes, I had to dip into the at-large pool here. I still don't like Kent State to qualify for a bowl game. Ohio will be 7-5, Temple might win 9 games, and Central Michigan should obviously win the MAC. Kent State could finish at 7-5, but I think they'll lose to Buffalo in the final week to finish 6-6. Northern Illinois will have a good run of games to close the year out and finish 7-5 as well and they probably have more national appeal (still limited at best). The at-larges here are Iowa State to the Motor City Bowl, Middle Tennessee to the GMAC Bowl, ECU is an alternate tie-in without a bowl eligible Army, Fresno State fills in for the Pac-10 in the Poinsettia since that bowl has an alternate tie-in with the WAC, and that's about it. One team to watch is UL Monroe who finishes the year against North Texas, Western Kentucky, a reeling UL Lafayette team, and Middle Tennessee at home. They are 4-4 right now after losing yesterday to Troy, but don't be shocked if they finish the year 7-5.

Now, onto the other stuff. Even after USC's debacle on the road to Oregon, this is still a team that should get a BCS bid. I've heard they don't travel well, but this is USC. You get them against TCU, it should be an easy sellout and garner plenty of national excitement. Alabama/Penn State is a matchup made for 1979 so that makes sense there. I think the Orange Bowl will stick to its ACC/Big East tradition and take Cincinnati over TCU.

I can't believe some publications are still picking Kansas State. They still need to win two more games. Even though they have 5 wins, two came against FCS schools so even if they beat Kansas next week which is really possible (and that's a team teetering on the brink of eligibility as well), they would have to split between Missouri and Nebraska on the road. I don't think this team will win another game but I could be wrong. Michigan State is also not going bowling. They had to take out Minnesota last week and now they stand at 4-5. They need to beat Western Michigan which should happen, but Purdue on the road is a tricky game. If they win those two, they should get in, but it'll be more difficult than it looks on paper. The Western game could be a trap one if this team discontinues their resiliency that they've shown throughout the year; the loss yesterday could be the straw that broke the camel's back. CFN and CBS also do not have Tulsa eligible. I think this is a team that should still get to 6-6 after taking one between Houston at home, Southern Miss, and ECU while finishing up against Memphis.

Okay, I admit I was wrong about Tennessee and Florida State. My problem was I needed FSU to split against North Carolina and NC State (I had NC State beating FSU) and I needed Tennessee to lose to South Carolina for my predictions to come true. Tennessee has 4 wins but they have Memphis and Vandy coming up along with a very winnable game against Kentucky. Florida State will probably lose to Clemson and Florida, but if they can beat Wake Forest and Maryland, they're in at 6-6. I came around to Duke because I was wrong about their game yesterday against Virginia as well. SMU is in after beating Tulsa. I'm a little queezy about buying into San Diego State. I had them as a bowl sleeper at 6-6, but that 6-6 included a win against Idaho which obviously hasn't turned out to be the case. They should knock off Wyoming at home, but the road game at the end of the season against UNLV is a tossup. SDSU destroyed UNLV's season at home last year and they might want to return the favor.

Game Previews: Week 9

noreply@blogger.com (Eric) — Sat, 31 Oct 2009 04:00:00 +0000

****READ: Hey sorry guys, this was as far as I got. If you're new to the site, trust me, the previews are generally lengthier and not quite as text-based :) . I started doing the previews Thursday night, but I had something come up. Previewing 22 games or so takes on average a little more than 4 hours of plotting, typing, and research to make sure everything aligns, but I do apologize for not completing this. I'll still announce my picks for the week after the jump:

Sacrificial Lambs of the Week (a.k.a, the biggest blowouts)

New Mexico State @ Ohio State

When: 12:00 PM ET, Big 10 Network

Why You Should Care: Like shooting fish in a barrel. New Mexico State will probably be drastically in over their heads here, but what if they put up a fight? It'll be interesting to see if the new life injected by Dwayne Walker will have any effect going up against a vastly superior team. Ohio State can probably take a nap in this game, but can their offense get ignited?

New Mexico State Will Win Because...: Eh, skip this part.

Ohio State Will Win Because...: One has been in the lower-rung of the Sun Belt and the WAC for about the previous 6 or 7 years while another has been making BCS runs right and left. Your call.

Keep an Eye on...: Terrelle Pryor. Can he throw the ball against New Mexico State? If he struggles, Ohio State will be in for a bumpy next two years....

And the Crystal Ball Says: This is easy. Ohio State will dominate from start to finish, especially defensively. For a group that could manage only 21 points offensively against Prairie View A&M, this defense will look like one from the NFL. I do however expect Ohio State to be in a funk offensively for at least the first quarter, but a couple turnovers and big special teams play will seal the deal in the first half. Ohio State wins, 42-3.

Coastal Carolina @ Clemson

When: 1:30 PM ET, ESPN360

Why You Should Care: How did this team lose to Maryland? Clemson is quickly appearing to be the best candidate for a division crown from the Atlantic division. Can they carry the momentum at home against the Chanticleers?

Coastal Carolina Will Win Because...: Yikes. This is a tough one. Well, at least their defense has been solid. Outside of a lopsided loss to Liberty, the unit has been pretty productive. They might keep Clemson to fewer than 50 points.

Clemson Will Win Because...: Coastal has no offense. At all. Their high point this season? They hung 28 on North Carolina A&T. They were shut out 18-0 at Kent State for the season opener. Clemson can probably call their score in this one.

Keep an Eye on...: RB C.J. Spiller. After Spiller single-handedly took down Miami last week, he should be lights out again against a much weaker opponent. He should be out of the game though after 10 carries or so if Dabo Swinney's head is screwed on.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Clemson should win this by however large they want to. This is going to be the worst blowout of the week with the Tigers winning, 62-3.

Eastern Michigan @ Arkansas

When: 7:00 PM ET, ESPNU

Why You Should Care: Can Arkansas finally muster a win? Without a break from officials against Florida or partly against Ole Miss, the Razorbacks have dropped to 3-4. They've played a tough run of games so they deserve a break and Eastern Michigan should be just that.

Eastern Michigan Will Win Because...: They can stop Ryan Mallett's passing attack.....Can they? Probably not. They .have the nation's number one passing defense so that has to count for something, right?

Arkansas Will Win Because...: As I mentioned in last week's preview of the Ball State/EMU game, the reason their pass defense looks so good is because everybody decides to run on them. They have the worst rush defense and the pass efficiency D isn't that great. I'll give them that they do have a solid pass defense for a non-BCS team, but that won't help against Michael Smith. They had one opportunity to win for the rest of the season against Ball State last week and failed at that, so they'll probably be on a downer.

Keep an Eye on...: WR Greg Childs. The sophomore receiver for Arkansas will be involved in a very interesting matchup most likely between him and Eastern DB Chris May. It will be a challenge.

And the Crystal Ball: Eastern is going to get smacked around early and this will get extremely ugly before it's over. While Eastern's pass defense will do an adequate job with what they have to work with, Mallett will still get his yards and the Arkansas rushing game will approach 250+ or maybe even 300 yards rushing. Arkansas wins easily, 56-10.

Reba on CW, or... (a.k.a., the worst televised games)

Akron @ Northern Illinois

When: 12:00 PM ET, ESPN Gameplan

Why You Should Care: Northern Illinois is still in the MAC West hunt. They have only suffered from one defeat, a one-point loss on the road to Toledo. They return home to play Akron who is struggling right now but looking better.

Akron Will Win Because...: This is still an offense that can't score, but they put up a fight last week in the Carrier Dome which tops anything they've done this year. Basically the defense has played three poor games but other than that, they've been pretty solid.

Northern Illinois Will Win Because...: The close calls over the last two weeks against Toledo and Miami OH were due to the fact that the games were outside of DeKalb. Coming back home should do the team some good. A stat to watch here is the 88th ranked rushing defense of the Zips going against Meco Brown and Chad Spann.

Keep an Eye on...: QB Patrick Nicely of Akron. Nicely is a freshman so J.D. Brookhart is not really throwing in the towel, but figured if his team was going to go down, his recruit will get a year's worth of experience along with it. Nicely will be facing the worst statistical pass defense he's seen to this point.

And the Crystal Ball Says: This game looks on paper to really suit Northern Illinois. Nicely will have a decent day, but he'll still make an occasional freshman mistake. Northern Illinois should take control on the ground and win this, while dumping Akron's record versus FBS competition to 0-7 by a score of 34-17.

San Jose State @ Boise State

When: 3:00 PM ET, ESPN Gameplan

Why You Should Care: It's not that Boise State has zero drawing power why this made "Reba on CW, or...", it's the fact that this game will be such a blowout. San Jose State has struggled mightily this year giving Dick Tomey headaches offensively and defensively.

San Jose State Will Win Because...: Since nothing they've done on the field in 2009 counts, has any program historically given Boise State more fits in WAC play? None come to mind. There was 2004, 2006, and kind of 2008. They might be 1-5, but they played tight with Utah and Idaho.

Boise State Will Win Because...: The Broncos, as we all know, are the model of non-BCS efficiency. They can mostly do no wrong defensively and the offense just churns points at will. They've had some hiccups, but still average 40 points per game. Plus, those games I mentioned? All in San Jose.

Keep an Eye on...: QB Kellen Moore. Moore is the leading player in the nation for passing efficiency and that's a testament to him as well as his offensive line. This guy is going to get a Heisman invitation before his career is done.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Boise State. B-I-G. 50-6.

New Mexico @ San Diego State

When: 7:30 PM ET, The Mtn.

Why You Should Care: Can San Diego State make a bowl game? That's about the only storyline here. If you're not interested, move along. Just kidding, but New Mexico is so bad right now.

New Mexico Will Win Because...: How did this happen? If there's ever an instance of a guy needing to be fired after one season, Mike Locksley is it. This is has been an utter disaster. Even after saying all of that, San Diego State has had their moments defensively, but isn't that great. If Donovan Porterie, the only New Mexico offensive player worth a dime, can have a good day, the Lobos might surprise here.

San Diego State Will Win Because...: Offense, and plenty of it. After shredding Colorado State to pieces last week, things are looking on the up-and-up for Brady Hoke's team. The Aztecs racked up over 530 yards of offense against the Rams last week on the road.

Keep an Eye on...: SDSU WR Vincent Brown. Brown had about 600 yards receiving last season and he's already eclipsed that mark. DeMarco Sampson had the big day last week, but Brown has been more consistent at a higher level.

And the Crystal Ball Says: This is a game San Diego State should win easily at home, but in all honesty I wouldn't put it past them to blow it. Even with that said, look for San Diego State to win by close to two scores. Aztecs take it, 37-18.

****

Pick'em-That-Should-Have-Been-Previewed:

UConn 20, Rutgers 13
NC State 34, Florida State 31
Wisconsin 42, Purdue 28
Ole Miss 37, Auburn 30
Houston 43, Southern Miss 32
Miami 36, Wake Forest 23
Cal 30, Arizona State 26
Arkansas State 31, Louisville 28
Boston College 34, Central Michigan 21
Texas A&M 45, Iowa State 27
Virginia 16, Duke 13
Temple 27, Navy 24
Texas Tech 40, Kansas 37
Florida 38, Georgia 27
Oregon State 25, UCLA 20
Kentucky 30, Mississippi State 27
Oklahoma 54, Kansas State 23
South Carolina 23, Tennessee 20
Texas 41, Oklahoma State 30
Oregon 33, USC 31
Michigan State 34, Minnesota 18

Game Preview: West Virginia vs. USF

noreply@blogger.com (Eric) — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 21:17:00 +0000

When: 8:00 PM ET, ESPN

Why You Should Care: USF needs a lot of breaks to stay in the Big East race, but in all reality, they're almost 100% toast in the conference. West Virginia on the other hand has a zero in the conference loss column and have strung together a couple nice wins throughout the season. Jim Leavitt has had WVU's number though over the past few years.

West Virginia Will Win Because...: The Mountaineers have proven that they might not drop off as far as some predicted post-Rodriguez. With athletes like Noel Devine at RB and a passer like Jarrett Brown at QB, this is an offense that has found a nice, consistent rhythm. Even though the secondary has had it kind of rough, their defensive front has done a good job at keeping running games at bay with a current rank of 9th in the nation.

USF Will Win Because...: They lost by a slim margin last season, but Leavitt always prepares his teams for the biggest statement games in the conference. It's not like they were bad against Cincinnati, but they did look hungover against Pitt last week so maybe things have changed. Getting West Virginia at home is a big bonus, but whenever dealing with USF, the opposing offensive line always has to take into account the speed coming off of the edge.

Keep an Eye on...: RB Noel Devine. Devine could be the most underrated player in the game today and it's a shame that he's not getting as much Heisman love as some other backs (cough Mark Ingram cough). He already has over 1000 total yards and 11 total touchdowns on the year.

And the Crystal Ball Says: I'm 0-2 this week. Let's make it 0-3! I'm going with the unconventional upset here and picking USF. Trust me, I can't entirely explain it, but it's the same feeling I got when I said USF would upset Florida State on the road earlier this year. B.J. Daniels is going to be wildly inconsistent in his first year, we get it. I think this will be one of his good days at making plays downfield against a so-so Mountaineer pass D. They'll probably lose by 20, but I'll pick them to win 31-28.

Texas Tech and their Fat Little Girlfriends

noreply@blogger.com (Eric) — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 15:27:00 +0000

I hate to post sole videos because it's not really worth an entire post and it lacks any kind of depth or analysis. But then, we get these and while I'm not sure how long this has been floating around the Internet, it's still pretty funny:

At what point has Mike Leach gone off the deep end? I'm just saying. Hasn't he handed out dating advice before?

I Walk the Lines: Week 9

noreply@blogger.com (Eric) — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 21:58:00 +0000

Ugh. I didn't want to go a day this week without a post, but Wednesday was busy. Crap. Anyway, I'm back with the lines I like for Week 9. With a 4-3 record last week, that puts me at 26-16. Not fantastic, but I'll take it! The lines come from College Football Poll's weekly picks.

Air Force -6 @ Colorado State - The Falcons are only favored by 6? I suppose so. Air Force is coming into this game having been extremely competitive against the tougher teams on their schedule (OT losses to Utah and Navy, 7 point loss to Minnesota, 3 point loss to TCU) which is a win for this program often a step behind athletically. Not that I want to put down their program or underestimate these guys, just pointing that out that they don't get recruited to play football entirely. Colorado State is absolutely reeling right now with five losses in a row. I'm assuming Vegas is betting that your casual bettor sees Colorado State as a solid home team such as the sports betting line at BetUs.com suggests, but they lost by 14 last week to San Diego State and got lit up defensively in the process allowing 531 yards against the Aztecs. IN COLORADO SPRINGS. That shouldn't be happening. Look for Air Force to gash this team up on the ground and win by more than 6.

Nebraska -12 @ Baylor - Pete Fiutak of College Football News has this theory about double-digit home 'dogs. That description accurately fits Baylor. While the Bears were one of this preseason's hotter picks to go 6-6 and play Navy in the Texas Bowl, the injury to Robert Griffin changed just about everything in year two of the Art Briles rebuilding project. It would be difficult to pick Nebraska to win a football game after one of the biggest debacles in college football history, and that is no understatement. With the way Iowa State played in that football game, about 80% of the FBS universe would have beaten them. But not Nebraska. With 8 turnovers compared to 0 for the Cyclones, the Cornhuskers lost 9-7. I expect them to come out somewhat flat, but when they do decide to hold onto the football, they will win this by at least two touchdowns. I'm somewhat iffy here, but can Nebraska lay an egg of that magnitude two straight weeks? Doubt it. 'Huskers win by 12+.
UL Lafayette @ Florida International -3 - The Golden Panthers have struggled this year, unfortunately. I was on the bandwagon as of a few weeks ago, but their schedule wasn't really going to allow for more than a 6-6 season. Scratch that, they're 1-6 now after getting the toughest Sun Belt teams, Toledo, Rutgers, and Alabama out of the way. There's still hope to end things on a positive note with a 4-8 record, but the defense isn't going to get the job done here. UL Lafayette is quietly but surely having a nice year capped off with a home upset of current Big 12 North leader Kansas State. The stats look horrendous for this team, but believe me, they're a little better than that suggests. After getting spanked last week against Florida Atlantic, a road upset seems like a good possibility. Still, the Golden Panthers have the 117th ranked run defense going against Undre Sails, so this should be a touchdown win for UL Lafayette in a pretty close game. Go with the Ragin' Cajuns at +3.

New Mexico State @ Ohio State -40 - This spread is probably too close for me to be anything more than relatively confident. The New Mexico State Aggies under the leadership of Dwayne Walker have had a solid season for the expectations or lack thereof in his first season. They have three wins each by a FG when many thought they had 1-11 written all over them. Ohio State on the other hand bounced back with a big win against a Minnesota team that still has a lot of work to do. This is a throwaway game for the Buckeyes who mercilessly handpicked NMSU to take a paid slaughter, but the question is how bad will the slaughtering be? I'm going to go against conventional wisdom and say that New Mexico State covers. Let's be clear, if they score a touchdown it'll be against a second-string Ohio State defense that doesn't really care, but I'm thinking that Ohio State's offensive problems will look pretty ugly in the first half. Their defense and special teams set them up very nicely against Minnesota. I mean that offensive performance was dreadful. It's not going to be a matter of the Aggies beating the Buckeyes' offense by a longshot, it's the fact that Ohio State will hurt themselves. They'll start chugging along later in the game, but I think New Mexico State will outlast the 40 point slaughter, for some reason. I'll take New Mexico State +40 with the college football line for the Buckeyes being that high.

Hawaii @ Nevada -25 - This game is gold. I got screwed after saying that Hawaii would get blown out by Boise State for 3 quarters and put the game within 24 with some garbage 4th quarter scores. Not so as Boise State put the pedal to the metal for the duration of the game. This week, I'm feeling the opposite. Sitting at 2-5, this is a Hawaii team that is not even bothering to play defense and that doesn't bode well on the road against Nevada. The Wolf Pack have had some major successes offensively at home and pretty much for the entirety of their current four game winning streak. They put on the exclamation point with a 70-45 win against Idaho. The pistol rushing attack is operating at another level and with the game in Reno, I wouldn't be surprised to see Nevada win by more than 40. Take Nevada minus 25 here.

Purdue @ Wisconsin -7.5 - Here's a head-scratcher. We all know the Badgers have lost two straight games, but they were very competitive matches against Ohio State and Iowa, two of the better teams in the Big 10 excluding Penn State. Wisconsin is coming off of a bye to play the Purdue Boilermakers who beat the aforementioned Ohio State team and Illinois in the past two weeks. It just seems to me that if Wisconsin is going to beat Purdue (which they should), it will be by more than a touchdown and the hypothetical .5 points they're being given by the oddspeople. Here's a team with John Clay and Zach Brown going up against one of the softer run defenses in the Big 10. I don't think there will be a lot of issues against the Boilermakers here and while they have some momentum, this is an average offense that won't score a lot of points. Take Wisconsin.

UAB @ UTEP -8 - In the wild and wacky C-USA, the UTEP Miners have beaten both Tulsa and Houston to stunningly take control of C-USA West. Still, they have that road loss to Memphis on their resume which doesn't look too good. Does that mean UAB will have a shot to win in El Paso? The 3-4 Miners are starting to look better overall compared to how they were playing in the opening weeks, but this isn't an offense that will blow anybody away on most occasions. They're still going up against UAB's defense which has proven to be one of the worst in the nation. Joe Webb will be squaring off against UTEP's, which is also one of the worst in the nation. While this game shouldn't be a blowout, you'd have to expect the UTEP team that beat the West frontrunners, Houston, to show up in this game. They'll give up points, but Trevor Vittatoe will have a nice day against an unchallenging Blazer secondary. UTEP will win by low-double-digits at home in a shootout.

Game Preview: North Carolina vs. VT

noreply@blogger.com (Eric) — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 21:33:00 +0000

When: 7:30 PM ET, ESPN

Why You Should Care: This game was scheduled in advance and predicted to be a marquee matchup between ACC championship contenders. Not so. With Georgia Tech's upcoming ACC schedule, the Coastal division looks locked up and North Carolina is 0-3 in conference play. That doesn't mean this won't be a good game though as the Hokies still have hopes of a BCS bowl appearance.

North Carolina Will Win Because...: How much longer can this team keep losing in the ACC? Will they be 0-4 after tonight? That's a pretty shocking W/L total so far for this team that was expected to progress from their surprising 2008 season. Even with the offensive struggles, this is still a team that is dominant against the pass and the run which Virginia Tech has been trying to find a balance between offensively. If the Tar Heels can get disruptive and keep their anemic offense in the game, that can play with VT's collective mind.

Virginia Tech Will Win Because...: This is a much, much better team in Blacksburg and they have been that way since I can remember watching football. Frank Beamer's special teams haven't been exceptional compared to other squads, but this is still a group that will hand UNC issues. Even with a solid performance against Florida State's poor defense that amounted to 27 points, they still have major issues on offense with the nations 90th ranked scoring offense.

Keep an Eye on...: VT RB Ryan Williams. Who was Ryan Williams in August? Nobody really knew, the only thing they heard about was the Darren Evans-less Virginia Tech running game. So far, the freshman Williams has averaged close to 120 yards per game rushing in what has surprisingly turned out to be one of the best running games in the nation.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Virginia Tech will smoke North Carolina. Actually, that's a tad hyperbole, but this won't be an interesting game and it should hardly be worth your time. Of course, if you're a college football junkie, knock yourself out; I'm only saying Virginia Tech has this in the bag when toe-meets-football to begin the game. Hokies dominate the Tar Heel offense and win, 30-10.

Game Preview: ECU vs. Memphis

noreply@blogger.com (Eric) — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 17:51:00 +0000

When: 8:00 PM ET, ESPN2

Why You Should Care: The C-USA East division should come right down to final week of the season, or actually that would be the second-to-last week taking into account the championship game. The Pirates and Golden Eagles should duke it out for the division lead, but this is a major trap game. Memphis has struggled, but will be eager to make a statement on national television at home.

ECU Will Win Because...: While the offense has struggled a bit, things are looking better. Granted it was against Rice, but the offense was crisp scoring 49 points in that game. Memphis' defense (ranked 93rd in the nation) and special teams have been all-around bad so far this season, so even an ECU offense that has been plodding along might hit the 30 point mark. The Pirates have allowed only 18 points per game in C-USA play so they are getting a little better in that category.

Memphis Will Win Because...: If there's a key theme you should keep in mind before this game starts, ECU has not been all that on the road so far. They are 1-3 on the road and their struggles where highlighted in a 28-21 loss to SMU in Dallas. That's just a bad loss. Memphis knocked off sky-high UTEP a couple weeks ago in Memphis. The Tigers have a big advantage with their passing game against ECU's 93rd ranked passing defense. Will Hudgens, who seems like he's been at Memphis for 8 years, has athletes like Duke Calhoun and Carlos Singleton to pitch the ball to (again, they've been here for about 8 years too). Even though the Tiger offense hasn't been firing on all cylinders, this is a good match up for them.

Keep an Eye on...: QB Will Hudgens. Hudgens, while never an exceptional QB, has enough experience running this system to put up a good day. Tommy West has been playing QB Carousel at QB with Arkelon Hall at first, then Tyler Bass, and now the senior Hudgens. He's a decent QB with some athletes at WR, so let's see if he can have a big day.

And the Crystal Ball Says: I'm getting more excited about this game the more I type about it. Which is weird, because this is after all not a top-tier C-USA game. ECU is a frontrunner for sure, but this game won't really decide much in the division as the winner of the Southern Miss/ECU game will more than likely go to the title game anyway. I do like the upset here and I changed my mind midway through the post. While C-USA East is a little more stable on a week-to-week basis compared to the West, Memphis at home has their offense and homefield advantage working in their favor. ECU will have a haunting repeat of their weekend at SMU and lose this game in a tight, somewhat sloppy game. Memphis wins it, 27-24.

"The Blind Side" Starring....Lou Holtz?

noreply@blogger.com (Eric) — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 23:13:00 +0000

Apparently. There's this new movie coming out that highlights the trials and tribulations of former Ole Miss and current Baltimore Raven OT Michael Oher. Just for clarification, I'm not doing this as an advertisement or anything and I didn't get an e-mail from the producers asking me to put in a plug for the movie. The main reason this film caught my attention was all of the cameos!

Here's the video:

I'm currently looking for the video that had Lou Holtz and Nick Saban in a more prominent role. That's floating around the TV airwaves since I was watching The Office on TBS. That show has dropped off a lot from its beginnings and I'm not as much of a fan as I was three years ago or so, but.....That's not why I'm here! By my count, we have cameos/roles from Sandra Bullock, Tim McGraw, Lou Holtz, Nick Saban, recruiting guru Tom Lemming, Phillip Fulmer, and that's about it on my count. The movie looks a little cheesy, but that's not to diminish Oher's story at all. I might have to watch this to see Lou Holtz act. I bet he wins best supporting actor at the Academy Awards next year. How about it?

The Week That Was: Week 8

noreply@blogger.com (Eric) — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 01:50:00 +0000

1. Ricky Stanzi: America's Winningest Game Manager

Say what you want about Iowa football, but one thing is for sure: They just keep on winning, don't they? I'm as shocked as you are. From opening week's one-point, twice-blocked-FG escape from FCS Northern Iowa, I'm not sure many saw that particular team playing in the Rose Bowl. Just think, a couple things here or there that could have gone differently and this is an Iowa team that was upset by Northern Iowa or Arkansas State who happened to be in the lead of the Big 10 via a couple flukes.

Even as an undefeated team and one that keeps pulling out these last-minute wins, I have to admit that's the way I'm leaning. I think if they wind up facing USC or Oregon in the Rose Bowl that they'll get whipped pretty good. The bottom line is that they're going to need some more offensive production and fast. You can only play with fire so many times. I don't want to diminish the clutch performances and shut-down defense that this team is capable of accomplishing, but they're going to be in for a rude awakening against either Ohio State, the Pac-10 champion, or Texas/SEC winner if they keep scoring an average of 23 points per game. In the end, it won't be good enough for a BCS bowl win. One of the reasons Iowa continues to win is the turnover margin. They're 6th in the nation right now, and that statistic has proven to be one of the most unreliable on a week-to-week basis.

2. To the Summit of Mount Cody!

Moses went to the peak of Mt. Cody and not Mt. Sinai, right? He must have, because that finish was nothing short of biblical. By the way I freaking hate that nickname; not standing by itself, just that I heard it about 20 times in the span of 3 minutes between CBS and ESPN. Lane Kiffin has been introduced to two of his biggest rivals, Florida and Alabama, and both times have seen his team succumb by a couple plays. They kept Florida within 10 and Bama within 2 and a blocked FG, but what does this say about the prospects of both teams?

Alabama needs to get their act together, much like Florida. After the heaps of praise they were lauded with once Florida failed to remain the flavor of the month, the results haven't entirely been there. It's not like this team cruised against South Carolina and Ole Miss in previous weeks although in total they have looked a shade better than Florida. This adds to the fact that you're probably splitting hairs between Florida and Alabama. I don't know how many times this needs to be repeated though, whether or not these two teams are 1, 2, or 3 in the polls, it won't matter because the winner of the SEC title game is in the national title. That's the bottom line. I've mentioned in the bowl projections segment of this blog that I'm not 100% sold on Tennessee right now and as a result kept them out of that week's bowl projections. If they can upset South Carolina next week, mark me down as a believer. I do realize I'm in the minority, so take it for what it's worth.

3. The Big 12 Doesn't Care About Our Petty "Sense"

All is wrong with the cosmos! Texas A&M beat Texas Tech in Lubbock for the first time in what seems like forever. This rivalry game turned into an annual slam-dunk affair with Leach's swashbucklers taking the last four in the rivalry game. This was probably the second biggest shock of the week with the Aggies winning 52-30. A&M was a program that was left for dead just a couple weeks ago by most with the Mike Sherman era almost to a painful close just 1.5 years into his tenure. Granted he wasn't going to get fired or anything, but after losing to Kansas State a week ago 62-14, they looked ready to quit. Now, a 6-6 record is in the future and probably a Texas Bowl to go along with it.

The largest surprise though did happen in the Big 12 with Iowa State out-not-turning-the-ball-over-ing, I guess you could say, Nebraska. The Cyclones basically didn't mess up in the turnover department and even though they played like a team that would have gotten blown out against any good opponent in the country Saturday, Nebraska was surprisingly more dreadful. In case you didn't see it, Nebraska turned the ball over 8 times compared to ISU's goose egg. Let's not give too much credit to Iowa State here; this was a classic case of a team defeating themselves. I've never seen such careless ball handling and more of that "we can afford to wait out these pathetic losers" attitude (save for the Florida State/Jacksonville State game earlier this year where that actually happened). The much-maligned Zac Lee didn't play a horrible game as a few of those interceptions were deflected passes that the WRs should have caught, but he didn't do anything to solidify his starting spot. You have to pin this on the backs and receivers who couldn't hold onto the football. If Nebraska has 5 turnovers instead of 8, they probably win this game. It was really that easy.

4. BCS Busting!

Did that convince voters? No. Amazingly. BYU may not be all that and a bag of chips after all, but a 38-7 road win against a halfway decent football team is a 38-7 road win against a halfway decent football team. The Horned Frogs are quickly building a BCS resume that trumps their 2008 Poinsettia Bowl victims much to the dismay of the WAC who was desperately wanting a piece of that BCS payout pie.

Texas Christian dominated that game in every way imaginable. Andy Dalton has given the offense a good spark at QB which had usually been the downfall for the Frogs--Offense, particularly at the quarterback position. I think that is what separates this TCU team from the others in the past who would win double-digits but lose once or twice. Gary Patterson has really found a gem with this bunch who appear to be BCS bound if they can take care of Utah. But what about Boise State? Well, in a perfect world, they too could join the ranks of the BCS, but there's no way the little guys can get both in. The only hope would be for Miami, Notre Dame, and Virginia Tech to finish 9-3 along with Penn State automatically qualifying over Iowa. This would increase their stock and limit the pool of teams with legitimate qualms to make a major bowl game. Those things aren't all going to happen and we all know it. If it were up to me, I'd like to see both teams get a shot, but with TCU's overall resume of beating Air Force, Utah, BYU, suddenly decent Virginia, and potential ACC Atlantic champion Clemson compared to Boise State's wins over Fresno State, Tulsa, and Oregon, I'd take the Horned Frogs. Get ready for an arms race of epic proportions though: Who can blow out mediocre teams the worst! Should be interesting.

5. College Football Embarrassments

I try not to talk about the NFL too often on here because most of it has nothing to do with the college game. But has anybody else noticed how many atrocious, pathetic NFL teams that should be competing in an NFL version of the MLB's AAA that there are? It's beyond sad. Tampa Bay, Detroit, Cleveland, Oakland, Kansas City, St. Louis, and Tennessee all are in dire need of a #1 overall franchise-changing pick but somebody is going to wind up with the 7th overall selection which is about 6 spots lower than any of these teams need to be.

My point? There are a bunch of terrible teams littered throughout the NCAA as well. Western Kentucky is having all kinds of issues, but I don't want to be too hard on them due to the fact that this is their first years as a full-fledged member of the FBS. They've had a couple injuries and the youth is spread all around the roster. I don't want to say that Rice being winless is much of a shocker either. I was really scared of the start that they could get off to if they didn't beat UAB. That stretch against teams like Vanderbilt, ECU, Oklahoma State, Navy, etc. was going to be brutal on a rebuilding, young football team. As it turns out, they're looking like a good bet to finish 0-12 if they can't upset SMU, UTEP, or Tulane. It doesn't have to be mentioned after I've lambasted Miami OH so many times on this blog, but they actually held their own at home against Northern Illinois this week losing 27-22. The other teams from the MAC who hadn't won yet squared off in the form of Ball State vs. Eastern Michigan. The Cardinals finally, FINALLY, got a win and it came with about 500 yards rushing. Congrats.

SSO's Totall Worthless Top 25:

1. Texas
2. Florida
3. Alabama
4. USC
5. TCU
6. Cincinnati
7. Iowa
8. Penn State
9. Boise State
10. LSU
11. Virginia Tech
12. Oregon
13. Oklahoma State
14. Miami
15. Georgia Tech
16. Ohio State
17. Pitt
18. Houston
19. West Virginia
20. Utah
21. South Carolina
22. Notre Dame
23. Ole Miss
24. Arizona
25. Oklahoma

Others Receiving Meaningless Consideration: Central Michigan, Navy, Wisconsin, Clemson, Cal

Game Balls!

The previously mentioned MiQuale Lewis should get some notoriety for his shredding of Eastern Michigan's defensive front. I thought Ron English was going to fix the defense at Eastern first and foremost? Lewis is a great little RB who was very underrated in Ball State's failed BCS run last season. He had 301 yards rushing on 26 carries to go with a TD. Cory Sykes was the day's second leading rusher with, get this, 203 yards and three touchdowns! I didn't know who to give the ball to, but Lewis did the most heavy lifting. Give it to both of them!

DeMarco Sampson of San Diego State had been playing in the shadow of Vincent Brown all season long who had gotten some deserved attention, no doubt. But now, it's Sampson's turn in the spotlight. He tore up Colorado State's secondary for 257 receiving yards and a few touchdowns. I guess I should also say that QB Ryan Lindley had 6 TDs, 0 picks, and 459 yards as well.

While UConn was playing with heavy hearts in the memory of their fallen brother, they came up a little short. I was going to award the gold game ball to West Virginia and Connecticut for both being classy programs. While West Virginia fans often get slapped with the rowdy tag for their unfortunate history with couches, they were classy, respectful, and the administration did a fine job of remembering the sorrow and grief that the Huskies were experiencing. Bravo on a well-played game for both teams.

I'm quickly running out of topics for the Kool-Aid Report because I'm finding myself agreeing with most of the common wisdom out there. So unless it deals with polling, BCS chatter, or replay issues, I don't have a lot of material! Regardless, this week I should bring up the national title picture and Iowa's relevance in the talk. Forget about the Hawkeyes actually playing for a national title. They aren't a recognized powerhouse program even though they have been generally solid for years. The Big 10 isn't going to get any benefit of the doubt and I object to that to some degree. If you compare the Hawkeye's resume to Florida, Alabama, or Texas, doesn't it stack up? They beat Arizona who the computers love and is represented in the top 25 now. They beat Penn State in Happy Valley. They beat Michigan State for a solid road victory. They beat Michigan who is pretty good. They beat Wisconsin on the road as well. Compared to Florida who has defeated Tennessee, Arkansas, LSU, and that's about it. Texas has defeated Oklahoma, Missouri, and Texas Tech. Alabama is the only team in the title race with a decidedly better resume with wins over Tennessee, Ole Miss, Arkansas, and Virginia Tech. I'm not suggesting that Iowa is better than these teams, but that if on-field accomplishments count for anything, the Hawkeyes should be getting more love in the national title discussion.

Word of the Week: Transmogrify
-verb
to change in appearance or form, especially strangely

This is exactly what hadn't happened over the week. Seven undefeated up, and they all stay afloat in the BCS picture. There were a couple upsets, but nothing earthshattering. I guess you could say things failed to transmogrify, but we did learn a little bit about our national title contenders as I talked about earlier in this segment.

Bowl Projections: Week 9

noreply@blogger.com (Eric) — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 15:50:00 +0000

New Mexico Bowl: Idaho vs. UTEP*
St. Petersburg Bowl: USF vs. UCF
New Orleans Bowl: Troy vs. Southern Miss
Las Vegas Bowl: Utah vs. Oregon State
Poinsettia Bowl: Iowa State* vs. Fresno State*
Hawaii Bowl: Nevada vs. Marshall
Little Caesars Pizza Bowl: Central Michigan vs. Minnesota
Meineke Car Care Bowl: Clemson vs. West Virginia
Emerald Bowl: Boston College vs. Stanford
Music City Bowl: North Carolina vs. Kentucky
Independence Bowl: Missouri vs. Auburn
EagleBank Bowl:ECU* vs. Ohio*
Champs Sports Bowl: Michigan State vs. Virginia
Humanitarian Bowl: Boise State vs. BYU
Holiday Bowl: Cal vs. Oklahoma
Armed Forces Bowl: Air Force vs. Tulsa
Sun Bowl:Arizona vs. Nebraska
Texas Bowl: Texas A&M vs. Navy
Insight Bowl: Northwestern vs. Texas Tech
Chick-fil-A Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Georgia
Outback Bowl: Wisconsin vs. South Carolina
Capital One Bowl: LSU vs. Ohio State
Gator Bowl: Miami vs. Notre Dame
Rose Bowl: Iowa vs. Oregon
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Penn State
International Bowl: Pitt vs. Temple
Cotton Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Ole Miss
Papajohns.com Bowl:UConn vs. Middle Tennessee State*
Liberty Bowl: Houston vs. Arkansas
Alamo Bowl: Kansas vs. Michigan
Fiesta Bowl: USC vs. TCU
Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Cincinnati
GMAC Bowl:Wake Forest vs. Northern Illinois
BCS Championship: Florida vs. Texas

* - at-large qualifier

Okay, I have some 'splaining to do. Florida gets bumped into the title game after I've decided they just might be better than Alabama after all. For the rest of the BCS, I've had to switch USC to the Fiesta Bowl as the Sugar Bowl can't get both at-large USC and at-large SEC runner up. So TCU gets to test their mettle against the Trojans here. I still am not sure whether or not Cincinnati will be undefeated and if they lose to Pittsburgh, the Panthers might wind up taking that BCS bid. Also, I honestly have no clue what to expect for that final BCS berth.

What else? Toledo got thumped last week. Even if they get to 6-6, I don't have them in the bowl picture with Northern Illinois getting ready to go on a tear. Their upcoming schedule has Akron, Eastern Michigan, and Ball State all at home which means they are a near lock for 7 victories. I couldn't believe that CBS had Kent State in the International Bowl which is a joke. Ohio and Temple are still the frontrunners for the MAC East. They also had Army who needs to beat either Air Force or Navy along with wins over VMI and North Texas to get to 6 wins. They also had Florida State in a bowl game which isn't going to happen either. So I should clarify my stance on the EagleBank Bowl yet again: The EagleBank Bowl has a main alternate tie-in with C-USA and back-up alternates between the Big 10 and MAC. Without a valid ACC or Army being bowl eligible and without an extra Big 10 school, they will take C-USA ECU and 7-5 Ohio. Please read this before you comment on how stupid I am! :)

And note, there are a couple at-large bids being handed out. Upon further review, I actually don't like Tennessee to get to a bowl game this year. Maybe I keep selling them short because I don't necessarily like Lane Kiffin at all, but they still need three wins against: vs. South Carolina, vs. Memphis, @ Ole Miss, vs. Vanderbilt, @ Kentucky. I think they only get wins against Memphis and Vanderbilt. If they can beat South Carolina next week, I'll have to put them back into the bowl scene, but until then, I have the Sun Belt filling an at-large bid for the final SEC slot in the form of 7-5 Middle Tennessee. UL Monroe can also qualify for this bowl, but we'll have to wait and see what the situation is at QB for them.

UTEP, Texas A&M, and Iowa State should get into the bowl schedule. I dropped Arizona State after further examination of their schedule and it's probably too difficult. They look headed for another 5-7 finish. A&M and Iowa State should each get to 6-6, but I have A&M filling the final Big 12 spot in the Texas Bowl. Iowa State will fill in for an at-large bid to the Poinsettia as the New Mexico Bowl takes 6-6 UTEP due to proximity.

Arkansas Did What Now?

noreply@blogger.com (Eric) — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 17:15:00 +0000

....Wait, he said shot their wad? Not sure if that's the kind of language you want to use at 12:00 PM on a Saturday afternoon. Think of the children! And in front of LaVell Edwards, Mr. Mormon! Look how uncomfortable that man is!

Actually, to shoot one's wad might have a more archaic term that means to "expend all energies or resources" in one instance, hence the reference to the near-upset of Florida. I hate to ruin everybody's fun, but Corso's mind isn't that dirty; he probably meant it in the most 1960's, Mother Goose-ish possible way.

Game Previews: Week 8

noreply@blogger.com (Eric) — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 05:40:00 +0000

Sacrificial Lambs of the Week (a.k.a., the biggest blowouts) (yes, I realize I forgot Washington State @ Cal which will get very, very ugly)

When: 12:30 PM ET, FSN

Why You Should Care: Can Nebraska bounce back? How does Iowa State have a winning record? The Cyclones are surprisingly 4-3 and if they had defeated Kansas State earlier this year, they'd be a game away from bowl eligibility.

Iowa State Will Win Because...: Paul Rhoads was brought in to fix the defense. While that mission has been accomplished, it's the offense that has been turning the most heads. Austin Arnaud has taken the next step in his development as a passer and Alexander Robinson has become the all-world back he was expected to. The defense is 88th in total but 42nd in scoring D.

Nebraska Will Win Because...: Three of Iowa State's victories have come against North Dakota State, Kent State, and Army. This is a team that while noticeably more competitive still has some growing up and maturation to do. And how about that QB situation? Nebraska got whacked at home last week against Texas Tech and fans began chanting Cody Green's name, the back up QB. Zac Lee has struggled against the top-flight defenses on his schedule this year.

Keep an Eye on...: The QB situation. Pelini said he was considering changing guys at "a lot of positions" which makes me believe it was a tough week of practice for the Cornhuskers. Nebraska will have a lot of guys playing for their jobs, but Cody Green could come in at QB if Lee is slow to start again.

And the Crystal Ball Says: This isn't a game that should be all that competitive. Nebraska has the ability to thump the weaker teams on their schedules, but that doesn't mean the Cyclones should be taken lightly. They were a few points away from beating both of the Kansas schools. Still, they don't quite have enough in the tank to play with Nebraska in Memorial Stadium, so take the Cornhuskers, 41-20.

When: 3:30 PM ET, ESPN Gameplan

Why You Should Care: Yikes. Is there any team worse than Western Kentucky in football right now? No, that answer is pretty clear. As a matter of fact, they would be an average-at-best team if they were in the FCS right now. They get another opportunity to pull off an upset for their first victory against Middle Tennessee.

Western Kentucky Will Win Because...: For all of the flak that the Hilltoppers are receiving in their predictably-disastrous opening FBS season, they have managed to keep in some games that could have easily been blowouts. They gave Navy and UL Lafayette some games earlier this year. Bobby Rainey leads a pretty solid rushing attack that should be able to keep this game reasonable. The Blue Raider offense has tanked, scoring 13 points in the last two weeks.

Middle Tennessee Will Win Because...: Yeah, but those two games were against Troy and Mississippi State. While disappointing outings, even a MTSU team that plays a lackluster game should get by with 25+ points against the Hilltoppers. Dwight Dasher will lead his group against a defense that allows 486 yards of offense per game.

Keep an Eye on...: S Mark Santoro, WKU. The Hilltopper defensive back leads the team in tackles (which is never really a good thing). But, he does have the ability to make tackles downfield, which should be handy in this type of game.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Western Kentucky will keep this a manageable game, but expect one of those we-had-'em-till-the-fourth-quarter kind of blowouts that a school spins as a moral victory. Yeah, that. Middle Tennessee will take control by at least the fourth quarter with a 31-13 win.

When: 3:30 PM ET, ESPN Gameplan

Why You Should Care: Keeping it in the Sun Belt, what are the odds that North Texas can compete with Troy on the road? Keep dreaming, dude. The Troy team that we all know and love appears to be back like they are every time the Sun Belt schedule comes around.

North Texas Will Win Because...: Yes, they have lost five games in a row, but this is a team that has lost to Ohio, UL Lafayette, and Florida Atlantic by a combined 9 points. More and more, this is looking like a hot team at least heading into 2010, but the wins will be accompanied by more consistent play, something that has been lacking tremendously under Todd Dodge.

Troy Will Win Because...: The defense has been an utter disappointment, but that hasn't stopped the offense. Levi Brown has exploded onto the scene in his second year starting ranking 31st in total offense in the FBS. Led by DE Cameron Sheffield, this is still a team that can get in the opponent's backfield and make plays even though they have stunk as a unit.

Keep an Eye on...: North Texas RB, Lance Dunbar. This is a RB on a mission right now. Over the last two games, he's ran for four touchdowns and over 400 yards. He has the ability to run up, through, and around Troy's talented defensive front.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Have to go with Troy. While North Texas being 1-6 after this game isn't exactly what Dodge had in mind for this third season at the helm, noticeable progress is being made. The team has found a boatload more consistency and a running game to build around while keeping the slingin'-it-around principles of Dodge Ball. It won't matter in this game as Troy blows the Mean Green out of the water, 45-17.

Reba on CW, or.... (a.k.a., the worst televised games)

When: 3:00 PM ET, ESPN Gameplan

Why You Should Care: It's do-or-die time for Louisiana Tech's bowl hopes. As it stands right now, this is a team that is 3-3 with 3 more games (including this one) where they should be favored. Pulling off an upset of Boise State at home or Fresno on the road is doable, but they hope it doesn't come down to that. This is a dangerous road game against a Utah State offense that can score all of a sudden.

Louisiana Tech Will Win Because...: The Aggies are coming off of back-to-back three-point-loss heartbreakers against New Mexico State and Nevada. Louisiana Tech won't wow you by doing anything, really. However, with a balanced offense led by Daniel Porter who has found his groove after a slow start, he should carve up Utah State's run defense that is allowing more than 200 yards on the ground.

Utah State Will Win Because...: Much like Louisiana Tech did on the road against Nevada, they might get waxed defensively. Utah State's offense can move the ball, but getting into the end zone has been a bit of an issue. The Bulldogs are solid on that side of the ball, but with the 14th best runner in the game in terms of rushing yards on their sidelines (Robert Turbin), look for Utah State to do their damage.

Keep an Eye on...: USU LB Bobby Wagner. Wagner has proven to be the top tackler on Utah State's defense. The Aggies have been worse than mediocre so far highlighted by a 34 point effort against Southern Utah awhile back. If Wagner can defend the pass well and make some good tackles against the run, they might be able to keep La Tech's offense from going berserk.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Picking Utah State to finally get an FBS win at home is really tempting right about now, but I'll go with the safe thing and Louisiana Tech. As mentioned previously, nothing that they do is going to impress too many people, but that's not to say they aren't a solid football team. Porter should get his rushing yards which will lead to more points than Utah State can score. That would typically define who wins a football game! Bulldogs win, 35-30.

When: 6:00 PM ET, ESPN Gameplan

Why You Should Care: After the amount of good will the Alabama win got Charlie Weatherbie, he has fielded a Sun Belt sleeper here in 2009. The Warhawks have enough talent to give Kentucky a run for their money, but can they pull off another SEC upset on the road?

UL Monroe Will Win Because...: Currently on a three game winning streak and possessing a 4-2 record overall, they have been the beneficiary of getting the right play at the right time from their offense and defense. There was a little bit of both against Florida Atlantic, a shootout against Florida International, and a defensive slugfest against Arkansas State (but that could have been the rain). Frank Goodin has stepped up big time for this offense giving them a viable option at RB.

Kentucky Will Win Because...: After losing three straight against upper-tier/solid SEC schools, they were bound to pull off one upset, right? They ended that brutal stretch with a 7 point win against Auburn. The Tigers were limited to 14 points which came as a surprise to many considering Kentucky's average defense.

Keep an Eye on...: Kentucky QB Mike Newton and ULM QB Cody Wells. I can't go throughout a preview of these two teams without mentioning the injured QBs, Revell and Hartline. These two freshman QBs are major wild cards in the equation of this game.

And the Crystal Ball Says: While Newton is the better of two prospects compared to redshirt freshman Cody Wells, this is a game that should be close. Besides the fact that UL Monroe is at least halfway decent for a non-BCS school, the inconsistency at QB for Kentucky will make it interesting at least. I expect a lot of headscratchers and headaches for both Rich Brooks and Weatherbie, but Kentucky has more talent which should bail them out. Look for the Wildcats to win it in the 4th quarter, 23-16.

When: 10:15 PM ET, ESPNU

Why You Should Care: Not meaning to pick on the WAC for this segment, but this game shouldn't be all that interesting. Or will it? New Mexico State has three wins already this year and Fresno State will provide a stiff challenge on the road.

Fresno State Will Win Because...: Have you seen this team in action so far against the soft interior of the WAC standings? Hawaii got demolished 42-17 at home and San Jose State was disposed of last week in their rivalry game 41-21. If anything, DeWayne Walker's crew should see similar results with the play of their defense. They got hammered last week at Louisiana Tech 45-7 and their three wins against Prairie View A&M, New Mexico, and Utah State have come by three points each game.

New Mexico State Will Win Because...: A win is a win after the Hal Mumme era, especially when two of them come against FBS schools! The Aggies have shown a new sense of toughness even though the defense has still allowed a lot of points. Seth Smith and Marquell Colston (not the former Hofstra receiver) have combined to make a nice running combo.

Keep an Eye on...: Ryan Matthews. New Mexico State has one of the worst rushing defenses in the nation allowing over 186 yards per game. Matthews just happens to be having a career year leading the country in yards per game. Ouch.

And the Crystal Ball Says: New Mexico State at home should provide another dimension of competitiveness to this game, but that won't stop Fresno State's running game by itself. Look for Matthews to approach 200 yards in this one as the Bulldogs eat the Aggie D for lunch, 47-14.

These Guys Gotta Show Something (a.k.a., teams with something prove)

When: 12:00 PM ET, Big 10 Network

Why You Should Care: Why does a game between lower-tier Big 10 teams matter at all? Well, it doesn't really, but if you care about the final Big 10 bowl bid, this game might as well decide it. Indiana has four wins; Northwestern has four wins. Indiana has three losses; Northwestern has three losses.

Indiana Will Win Because...: The Wildcat pass defense leaves something to be desired for sure and that is good news for Ben Chappell. Chappell has shown the ability to be a more-than-solid passer. With guys like Tandon Doss to throw the ball too, the Hoosiers should move the ball through the air without too many issues.

Northwestern Will Win Because...: Mike Kafka has developed into quite the polished passer. While he's clearly not in the upper-echelon of collegiate QBs, he's efficient at moving the Northwestern offense and that's all that really matters. The Hoosier secondary is also pretty shoddy, so look for Northwestern to get some yardage through the air.

Keep an Eye on...: Northwestern TE Drake Dunsmore. While Zeke Markshausen gets all of the attention as the leading receiver and rightfully so, Dunsmore could be in for a big game. As already highlighted, Indiana's secondary has gotten beat up over the past few weeks. Dunsmore could get open running the intermediate routes.

And the Crystal Ball Says: This is a game Northwester should win at Ryan Field. Indiana's four wins have come at the hands of Eastern Ketnucky, down-ish (you never know) Western Michigan, Akron, and Illinois. Northwestern's may not be all that much better, but they need this game a little bit more and that will make the difference. I saw where CFN predicted a low-scoring affair, but I don't really see it. Look for this game to get into the 30's with the Wildcats coming out on top, 38-34.

When: 1:00 PM ET

Why You Should Care: Somebody is getting on the board with a victory come Saturday! Eastern Michigan: Winless. Ball State: Winless. While Eastern wasn't supposed to go bowling overnight under Ron English, a winless season wasn't expected. Ball State on the other hand was supposed to be in bowl contention, but they have fallen off the map. Time for a coaching change? You be the judge.

Ball State Will Win Because...: In one of the bigger stunners of the college football season, Ball State is winless. I'm repeating myself, but it has to be done. Yes, that's after facing Temple, Army, New Hampshire, and North Texas. With the season closing out against Ohio, Northern Illinois, CMU, and WMU, this is their last shot to win a game realistically (although Western is a nice upset possibility on their senior day, trust me).

Eastern Michigan Will Win Because...: Being at home could help the Eagles out a little bit. Sure they've lost to Kent State, Temple, and Army in Ypsilanti, but what's to say they'll lose a fourth time? Kelly Page has been extremely inconsistent. At times he shows flashes of progression and at others he doesn't look like he was worth all of the attention. Eastern's pass defense ranks 6th in the nation, which is pretty surprising.

Keep an Eye on...: RB MiQuale Lewis. Here's a guy that needs a big game and very soon. Lewis has the capability like we all saw in 2008, it's just a matter of getting enough help from his surrounding team. Oh, I should mention the reason Eastern's pass defense looks so good on paper is because every team spends so much time running the ball down their throats.

And the Crystal Ball Says: This should be an evenly contested game. I certainly wouldn't put it past Eastern to win this game, but Ball State has to have the better team........Right?!?!? Right. Lewis should get close to 150 yards rushing and that should do it, 23-14 for the Cardinals.

When: 1:30 PM ET, ESPN360

Why You Should Care: Okay, can Duke get to a bowl game? Probably not. But about this game. This game should be important in deciding the ACC pecking order. Maryland is officially toast if they drop this (if they aren't considered that already). Should be interesting.

Maryland Will Win Because...: Maryland may be very soft defensively, but Duke has no running game to rely on. The Blue Devils haven't found a viable rushing threat all season long and that should carry over into this game.

Duke Will Win Because...: Okay, they may have no running game, but the passing one is there. Thaddeus Lewis has finally developed into that all-star kind of QB we all expected him to be since 2006. The Terps haven't done anything to really suggest that they can keep a QB with the talent of Lewis at bay, so....

Keep an Eye on...: Duke LB Vincent Rey. Rey is having a tame year by his standards, but that's not to say he can't have a monster game. This is a senior with enough talent to explode and keep Maryland's power running game in check.

And the Crystal Ball Says: I have to give up on Maryland sometime. Take Duke. Not much to say here; I don't know what to expect for sure. Screw it, I don't know about the mid-tier of the ACC. Just give me the home team already! Duke wins it with the passing game, 31-20.

Upset Alert (a.k.a, what it says)

When: 4:05 PM ET, ESPN Gameplan

Why You Should Care: A 6-1 beating a 3-3 team is an upset? I guess so. Technically, it wouldn't be that big of a deal if Idaho pulls off the upset, but I had to sneak this game in here somehow. This game is basically a battle for second place in the WAC and the winner should go on to challenge Boise State for the conference crown.

Idaho Will Win Because...: As I've repeated on this blog many times sounding like a broken record, the maturation of Nathan Enderle has been worth paying attention to. He's cut down on the errors and made much, much better decisions in the pocket. He's throwing against Nevada's secondary which could present the worst coverage in the nation.

Nevada Will Win Because...: That running game is too juicy to not account for. Nevada runs through, up, over, and around people. Their backs have speed to burn and power to boot. Idaho's rush defense looks good on paper, but I have to ponder if they've faced a running game as effective as Nevada's.

Keep an Eye on...: RB Vai Taua. And it's not just Taua running the rock for the Wolf Pack; Kaepernick and Lippincott are each nationally ranked. Taua just happens to be the top back in the offense. If Nevada controls the ground, they win.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Idaho can't keep winning like this. It's just not humanly possible. I expect their momentum to be quelled a bit, but this is still a team with a lot of things going in their favor. Don't quit on the Vandals if they lose this game. If they win, heck, they are the definitive challengers of Boise State. I'm a believer, but I have them dropping this matchup, 40-31.

When: 3:30 PM ET, ABC

Why You Should Care: So Miami is a top 10 team. Can they avoid the upset? This is the first real game where they've had the bullseye on their back against a decidedly inferior opponent with a legitimate shot of hanging in the game. I'm going to give you a second to digest that last sentence, but I digress...

Clemson Will Win Because...: The game last week should represent the real Clemson. The Tigers have been waffling a bit heading into that game by losing to TCU and Maryland, but a 35 point victory against a decent conference foe might be just what the doctor ordered. With athletes like C.J. Spiller in the backfield, you can never totally count out Clemson.

Miami Will Win Because...: Miami's defense is coming around slightly. Obviously they faced Florida A&M and Central Florida who aren't exactly Texas Tech, but the fact that the Hurricanes are back to basic fundamentals defensively is encouraging. Florida State, Georgia Tech, and Virginia Tech moved the ball almost at will (GT not as much).

Keep an Eye on...: Clemson K Richard Jackson. I probably pick a kicker/punter to keep an eye on once every two previews or so, but make no mistake: Special teams will be important in this game. I think it could come down to a couple FGs, so keep an eye on how Jackson performs.

And the Crystal Ball Says: This is a game that will come down to a lot of things, but something in particular that I'm going to be watching is the pass defense of Clemson. I predict that the Tigers will keep Jacory Harris at bay on the road and score an upset over the top 10 Canes, 26-24. It'll be field goal-kickin' goodness and a back-to-basics ACC defensive-dominated game.

When: 3:30 PM ET, ABC

Why You Should Care: Can Washington pull off another upset of a Pac-10 titan? With the way Oregon has been playing of late, the Ducks are certainly in that echelon. The Huskies lost a heartbreaking game in the desert against Arizona State last week in a poorly managed game that falls on the shoulders of Sarkisian. Doe they have what it takes to come back?

Oregon Will Win Because...: Simply put, the running game should overwhelm Washington's defensive front. There's pretty much no way that LaMichael James will get fewer than 100 yards in this game as U-Dub is surrendering 160 rushing yards per game. Look for Masoli and James to option the heck out of this defense.

Washington Will Win Because...: The friendly and scenic confines of Husky Stadium. Washington has a win over Arizona, USC, and Idaho which looks better all the time (I know I'm repeating myself from another post). The Huskies have appeared to be mentally tough after rebounding from some difficult losses. Plus, Jake Locker is always a plus.

Keep an Eye on...: Washington WRs James Johnson and Jermaine Kearse. The freshman and sophomore respectively have to find lanes in the Oregon secondary. The Ducks lay claim to the 6th best pass efficiency defense in the country which should make life difficult on Locker.

And the Crystal Ball Says: I think I just made the case for Oregon in that last segment. There's no way Locker can do any damage to this defense if he can't find open receivers and that should be the situation. Oregon has the offense to gash Washington's defense, too. I expect Washington to earn yet another moral victory in a tightly contested game, which is why this is listed on Upset Alert. But it won't amount to a win as Oregon takes it, 36-24.

I Pity Da Fool Who Misses These Games (a.k.a., the best games of the week)

When: 12:00 PM ET, ESPNU

Why You Should Care: Shame on me for not mentioning the tragic passing of UConn CB Jasper Howard in any capacity. From all accounts, he sounded like a great guy and the team looks like they've had their hearts torn out from their chests. A pregame ceremony is planned. Beside the obvious sadness hanging over the game, the on-field implications are also there. UConn can keep pace in the Big East race with an upset while West Virginia is always hanging around in the background to steal that BCS bid from Cincinnati.

UConn Will Win Because...: Even with heavy hearts, you should expect one of the best efforts from UConn. Their defense has a dream matchup coming up against either a banged up, game-time-decision Jarrett Brown or a freshman in Geno Smith. This should play right into the hands of one of the top secondaries in the country for UConn.

West Virginia Will Win Because...: This is a pretty underrated defense. West Virginia has lost that offensive spark they once had under Rodriguez, but the face of the program has shifted and changed. This is a team that can win an offensive struggle now with a more tough-nosed approach defensively. UConn may have Dixon and Todman to rely on in the backfield, but they'll be heading into the teeth of the West Virginia defense.

Keep an Eye on...: QB Cody Endres. Endres is actually 14th in passing efficiency, but the UConn pass offense hasn't been asked to do very much. Endres will be forced to throw the ball if they can't run, so look to see if the Huskies can move the football if they get one-dimensional.

And the Crystal Ball Says: I really don't know where to go here. On paper, you have to take the Mountaineers at home over a UConn offense that can't score, but you have to consider the emotional rollercoaster that UConn has been on for the last week. I think that will ultimately be what decides this game. Connecticut will play inspired offensively and defensively and it will come up with a tight win, 23-20.

When: 3:30 PM ET, ABC

Why You Should Care: Penn State needs this win. With Iowa basically having two more loseable games remaining on the schedule (@ MSU, @ Ohio State), they can't afford to fall two behind in the loss column. Michigan has been revived by Rodriguez's second season at the helm. Can they derail Penn State's Rose Bowl aspirations?

Penn State Will Win Because...: They have a better all-around blend of talent on this team. The Nittany Lions have played stifling defense for most of the year and Michigan's offense isn't quite as good as the stats say after shredding mediocre MEAC team Delaware State for over 700 yards. So far, Iowa is the only team to have scored more than 20 points against the Lions. Plus, Michigan's defense is awful right now and needs more focus. That comes directly from the coaching staff. Hello third straight new defensive coordinator for 2010!.....Hopefully!

Michigan Will Win Because...: Yeah, but besides Minnesota, they haven't played an offense with a pulse unless you count Eastern Illinois or Akron. Special teams should be in Michigan's favor if they can limit Penn State's offense by some miracle.

Keep an Eye on...: Michigan DB Donovan Warren. Warren has been decent. I don't want to say he's played well or that he couldn't be any better, but he's the guy who has picked up most of the slack. This is a talented bunch with some decent names, it's a matter of getting everybody on the same page (GREG FRICKIN' ROBINSON!). Michigan needs some better production from their secondary if they want to stay in this game.

And the Crystal Ball Says: This could be the biggest-named matchup of the Big 10 week even though Iowa and Michigan State (coming up) have more implications. Michigan will be inspired, somewhat. I mean, enough to keep this close, but it won't exactly matter. Penn State's solid offense going up against Michigan's shoddy defense should be enough to get the job done. The nation's number two scoring defense will more than likely keep Forcier and crew from doing too much damage, so go with the safe pick. Penn State will win, 34-23.

When: 3:30 PM ET, NBC

Why You Should Care: With all of the games having BCS implications this week, could Boston College @ Notre Dame have a similar effect? If Boston College wins, this is a team that could go on a tear and win the ACC Atlantic, thus giving them a one-game shot for the BCS. If Notre Dame wins, this could set up a 10-2 run to finish the year.

Boston College Will Win Because...: Can this team cover? A little bit. I was disappointed to see USC give up as many points and yards against this Notre Dame offense (full disclosure, I'm a Michigan fan if you don't know), but it is so annoying and I am so flabbergasted as to why this Notre Dame offense works. Jimmy Clausen CHUCKS the football to a horribly-covered Golden Tate or Kyle Rudolph and they catch it. Get some coverage, you beat Notre Dame.

Notre Dame Will Win Because...: I should probably just accept the fact that Notre Dame's offense is good again. Clausen has shown the ability to make the throws he needs and he should probably take the lesson from Sam Bradford and leave for the pros while he can. The Irish have stunk defensively, but that won't be an issue against Boston College's 97th ranked total offense.

Keep an Eye on...: BC RB Montel Harris. When Boston College was looking for a RB last year, Harris stepped up as a freshman. As a sophomore, he's on pace to get about 1300 yards if he finishes with his average (probably will dip down a bit). Notre Dame's defense can't tackle so the Eagles must rely on Harris to get a good deal of the yards.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Gotta go with Touchdown Jesus here. Notre Dame should take care of a pass defense that isn't going to do much to halt Tate or Rudolph. If Notre Dame has done it against everybody so far, including USC, they should do it again to Boston College. BC also has no pass rush. This will be relatively competitive but with Notre Dame at home, they should win, 35-26.

When: 7:00 PM ET, Big 10 Network

Why You Should Care: Let's give the Big 10 Network a big round of applause for denying coverage of this game to millions of fans throughout the country that has definite Rose Bowl implications. Bravo. But with that said, if Michigan State is hot, Iowa is on fire. Somebody has to lose in this game.

Iowa Will Win Because...: Michigan State's little run is maybe a little overhyped. They beat Northwestern and Illinois by 10 points a piece. Sure a three game winning streak is nice, but let's not say Michigan State is in a position to be playing for a Rose Bowl or anything like that. Iowa's offense may not be great, but Ricky Stanzi has gotten the job done when the Hawkeyes have needed him to.

Michigan State Will Win Because...: If I'm looking at this correctly, I believe this game will come down to pass protection and special teams. Michigan State has proven to have the better offensive line and we'll give them a slight edge in the return game. Even though Dantionio has abandoned the ground game for the most part, Keith Nichol and Kirk Cousins have each done some underrated jobs at moving the offense along.

Keep an Eye on...: Spartan receiver Blair White. White never fails to surprise people. He's never really expected to do much before he breaks open for a 30 yard gain up the middle. Cousins or Nichol will look his way as the main option.

And the Crystal Ball Says: I'll bite. Upset! Iowa can't continue winning at this rate. Their offense is not potent enough and if you think not playing defense will catch up with you eventually, the opposite is also true with offense. Michigan State will do alright against a tough Hawkeye D, but the home crowd is going to pull them through. Sparty wins, 23-18.

When: 7:30 PM ET, Versus

Why You Should Care: Did Versus luck out on this TV deal or what? Not that it matters after they were ditched by DirecTV, but I digress. TCU's BCS bid hangs on this game. BYU's slimmest of slim BCS prayers also depends on this game. After the Horned Frogs knocked off the Cougars last year in Fort Worth, the game shifts to Provo and revenge is on the mind of BYU.

TCU Will Win Because...: There's some offense now! Believe it or not, the team that has become known for defense-only has a mature gunslinger in the pocket to build around for the first time since.....I don't know, a healthy Tye Gunn? Pretty much. The junior Andy Dalton has been a decent passer who can move the chains when asked to has really manifested himself as a threat on the ground. BYU's defense isn't great, so look for TCU to take care of business defensively and score enough points to win the game.

BYU Will Win Because...: The Cougars at home are probably going to be at an advantage. If this game is at TCU, it's probably a slam dunk. The Cougars offense has exploded in recent weeks which include a 43.5 ppg average since that brain cramp against Florida State. That combo of Max Hall and Harvey Unga will be tough to topple as good as TCU's defense can be.

Keep an Eye on...: TE Dennis Pitta, BYU. The Cougar TE is more of a WR than anything else, although I suppose he's an adequate blocker. He's got great hands and is a good route runner, so don't be surprised when Hall is looking his way downfield.

And the Crystal Ball Says: I'm really torn about this game. Can't go back on TCU now, can I? I predicted that the Horned Frogs would finish the year undefeated and swipe that BCS bid away from Boise State, so I have to go with them until I'm wrong. The defense should defeat BYU's explosive attack and keep it at bay. TCU has enough talent offensively to score some points as the Horned Frogs win it, 28-23 in a very entertaining matchup.

Best of the Rest (a.k.a., games that didn't fit a particular category)

When: 12:00 PM ET, ESPN Gameplan

Why You Should Care: The loser might as well be done in the Big East. Actually, that's a stretch for Pitt, but for USF, this game is pretty much a must-win with their loss to Cincinnati last Thursday. Besides that, it's a great matchup! If you have Gameplan, be sure to tune in.

USF Will Win Because...: While USF never wins the games it absolutely has to, Jim Leavitt has this thing where he gets the Bulls to get jacked up to play teams such as Pitt. Pittsburgh hasn't looked like an all-world team after beating Navy by enough (I guess you could say), losing to NC State, beating Rutgers by 7, and UConn by a FG. The Bulls have an athletic defense that will get into the face of Bill Stull.

Pitt Will Win Because...: Regardless of what Pitt faces with the pass rush, USF has an average rush defense. They're not great, they're not bad. Dion Lewis is quickly emerging as one of the best RBs in college football today making Pitt fans forget all about LeSean McCoy. B.J. Daniels will turn into a special athlete in a few years, but he showed last week that he can be mistake prone at times.

Keep an Eye on...: USF WR Carlton Mitchell. Mitchell is the big-play guy on the perimeter for the Bulls and he has a tendency to be their home-run hitter. Look to see if he can get open deep for Daniels.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Something I haven't brought up, but the kicking game will also play into Pitt's favor. Pitt's K Dan Hutchins is a lot more reliable than either Schwartz or Alvarado. Look for Pitt to control the flow of the game on the ground and through special teams. Pitt wins, 28-20.

When: 12:20 PM ET, ESPN Gameplan/SEC Network

Why You Should Care: Arkansas needs this game. Ole Miss needs this game. Houston Nutt versus Arkansas. Need I say more?

Arkansas Will Win Because...: They have Ryan Mallett. If this thing comes down to a war between QBs, Arkansas should have it won. As talented as Jevan Snead is, he has struggled all year long and it doesn't look like it's something he's going to snap out of anytime soon.

Ole Miss Will Win Because...: Pass defense. Right now, this is a group that generates pressure off of the ends with Greg Hardy and Kentrell Lockett, not to mention some good cover guys in the secondary. If you haven't noticed all year, the Hogs have not been able to tackle this season.

Keep an Eye on...: QB Jevan Snead. Is it lazy? Sure. But he needs to pick up his play. If he can do it at home against a team that doesn't pay much attention defensively, the Rebels should get back on track offensively.

And the Crystal Ball Says: The stats should be telling me Ole Miss, but I do believe that Arkansas turned a corner after last week. Their focus should determine the outcome of this game. If they let the crappy refereeing interfere with their preperation for this game, it could be a long day. But I don't think the Hogs will fall for that. I don't buy that this team could possibly begin their SEC season 1-4, so I'll go with odds and say Arkansas wins, 34-30.

When: 3:30 PM ET, CBS

Why You Should Care: It's the first experience of the 3rd Saturday in October for Lane Kiffin. Welcome! I hope he has fun facing what is more than likely the best team in the country.

Tennessee Will Win Because...: Look, this team doesn't have the firepower, the ability defensively to manage Mark Ingram, or the coaching from the top. But what they do have going for them is the fact that they hung in against Florida and only lost that game by 10 points. I shouldn't sell the 13th ranked defense short, but I'm thinking of their defense going against Alabama's, just to be clear.

Alabama Will Win Because...: Mark Ingram! This guy is a monster and he played down the road from my alma mater high school. How did this guy leave the state of Michigan? Ugh. But yeah, if you think Jonathan Crompton has struggled so far this season, he should be even worse against the best defense in the nation.

Keep an Eye on...: QB Greg McElroy. Another lazy pick to go with the QB, but if he plays well in the face of an aggressive Volunteer defense, this thing should be pretty easy for the Tide.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Bama. Easy. I just don't believe in Tennessee right now. I know they crushed Georgia a few weeks ago, but they look so average. Alabama will win it big, 42-13.

When: 3:30 PM ET, ABC

Why You Should Care: With all of the Sam Bradford drama on the sidelines, Oklahoma still has a season to play. Sitting at 3-3 with losses to BYU, Miami, and Texas, a bigger disaster couldn't be asked for in Norman. Kansas was sneaking around the chicken coop of the top 10 after a solid start, but stunningly lost in Boulder last week to flaky Colorado. Both teams will be trying to bounce back.

Oklahoma Will Win Because...: .....It's Oklahoma! Come on! The team that could score 60 points at will last season can't move the football with any consistency. It's pretty disappointing even with the reconstructed offensive line. Things have to turn around eventually and the more experience Landry Jones gets under center, the more this offense will get the hang of things.

Kansas Will Win Because...: Just forget about that game last week. Surprisingly, a Mark Mangino-led team came into the game just downright unfocused. They tried coming back, but it was too little too late last week. The Jayhawks still have three things going for them: The 5th ranked offense in the nation, at least a decent defense, and the leadership of Todd Reesing.

Keep an Eye on...: Kansas WR Dezmon Briscoe. Seriously media, give this guy some props. He's one of the best receivers in the game today and is currently the leader in receiving yards per game.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Much like Boise State, this team away from Norman is a lot easier to defeat. Is it a coincidence that all three of their losses happened on the road or a neutral field? Are their failures in bowl games a coincidence as well? I'm not going to do it though. Oklahoma is not going 3-4. Oklahoma is not going 3-4. Oklahoma is not going 3-4. It's just too unfathomable. I still like Kansas no matter what happens in this game to finish in a solid bowl game like the Sun, but I'll say Oklahoma pulls off a gut-check win by the skin of their teeth in Lawrence. Boomer Sooner, 36-31.

When: 7:45 PM ET, ESPN2

Why You Should Care: We may be nearing the end of October, but there's still a lot we don't know about LSU. The Tigers have had one major test against Florida and I'm not going to say they flunked it. Let's give them a C. Auburn meanwhile has had the luster come off of their potentially special season with back-to-back losses against Arkansas and Kentucky (Kentucky at Auburn? Who saw that coming?).

Auburn Will Win Because...: This isn't our usual LSU defense. The Tigers haven't been as stout since Bo Pelini took off for Nebraska and while they're keeping teams out of the end zone, they haven't managed to dominate opposing offenses so far. That's good news for the Auburn spread attack coached by Gus Malzahn.

LSU Will Win Because...: It's in Death Valley. Auburn appears to be on an undeniable slide since that loss to Arkansas and it carried over against Kentucky. It's not like their defense has been able to do anything special either ranking in the 70's for both scoring and total defense.

Keep an Eye on...: LSU WR Brandon LaFell. LaFell hasn't wowed a lot of people in his senior season, but a lot of that has had to do with Jefferson's inability to spread the ball around very efficiently. Auburn will look like North Texas on defense compared to Florida two weeks ago.

And the Crystal Ball Says: LSU should win this game at home, but it's a Saturday night SEC game and I'm not going to put it past LSU to blow this game to the other Tigers. I think their defense will do its thing and the offense will play well enough to win. Auburn will compete, but fall in the end by a score of 27-24.

Bonus Pick'em

Georgia Tech 37, Virginia 14
Bowling Green 38, Central Michigan 34
Navy 28, Wake Forest 27
Utah 39, Air Force 30
Arizona 32, UCLA 18
Texas Tech 52, Texas A&M 30
Florida 33, Mississippi State 17
Texas 42, Missouri 24
USC 35, Oregon State 10
Stanford 43, Arizona State 34

Big East > Mountain West

noreply@blogger.com (Eric) — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 01:24:00 +0000

That is a mathematical law. There is no getting around this. Please, please, please shut up about this, "which conference is better?" dopey talk. Here I am watching the Rutgers/Army game and all I'm getting from Tessitore and Rod Gilmore is this manufactured bit of attention-grabbing. Are the conferences comparable at the top? Maybe. Is the Mountain West and the Big 10 comparable at the top? Maybe. I'll give you those somewhat. When you start talking about conferences as wholes though, there absolutely is no comparison between the Big East and the Mountain West. This post is kind of short on statistical analysis and it's just my opinion of the way I see things, so I apologize in advance for that.

The Big East has 8 teams. Every single one is solid enough to be respected. If Louisville plays in the Mountain West, they're in a bowl game. If Syracuse plays in the Mountain West, they're on the borderline. It's as simple as this. No conference that contains New Mexico, Wyoming, Air Force, Colorado State, UNLV, or San Diego State has a legitimate beef to claim they are a BCS conference. Period! BYU, Utah, and TCU may be good, but you can't say, "oh, the Big East doesn't deserve a bid" and on the other hand give one to the Mountain West. That's INSANITY.

Look, my theory is that BCS status leads to better recruiting and more cash to work with. Do you think the rising of South Florida and Cincinnati are coincidences or do you think that's because they joined a conference that gives them an opportunity to compete for a BCS championship? Do you think it's a coincidence that since UConn joined the Big East that they have gotten better as a program? UConn was an FCS school not long ago. If you extended that benefit to the Mountain West, I think something similar would happen out West. You might see a decline in play for the Pac-10 and the Big 12, but things would even out and San Diego State would become equivalent to a Louisville or a Purdue or a Baylor instead of being a lower-rung non-BCS school. It's the way things work. It's all about money. I certainly don't want to sound like a Leninist revolutionary, but you have an elite class in college football that determines which schools basically succeed and fail. So the point I'm getting at is that there is not a level playing field between UNLV and Connecticut.

This, however, is a different issue. If you want to talk about that and whether or not the stigma of being an "auto-bid" conference is even legitimate, that's fine with me and you might have a legitimate argument. There is no comparison between the depth of the conferences as they stand currently. There's no escaping this fact. I'm probably playing straight into the hands of ESPN which is in the business of fanning flames of fanhood and I realize that. But this is a dangerous, sloppily put together, and flimsy argument created to cause a stir. Which stretch of games would seem tougher to you? Let's just say hypothetically: vs. TCU, @ Wyoming, vs. UNLV, vs. @ San Diego State or vs. Pitt, @ West Virginia, vs. USF, @ UConn. Get the picture? Man.

/rant

Game Preview: Rutgers vs. Army

noreply@blogger.com (Eric) — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 20:24:00 +0000

When: 8:00 PM ET, ESPN2

Why You Should Care: Let's see Rich Ellerson's option in person, finally! I seriously haven't been able to find Army on the TV just about anywhere. Actually, they've been on CBS College Sports along with Navy, but I haven't had the time to actually tune in for longer than a few minutes. Rutgers is trying to just qualify for a bowl game and they'll need 7 wins to do it. This is a must here for Schiano.

Rutgers Will Win Because...: Army is making strides, but to say they can beat a team like Rutgers might be a bit of a stretch. They managed to stun a vastly overrated Vanderbilt team coming into this season 16-13 in OT, but let's assume Rutgers is better than Vandy. The only way the Black Knights can effectively move the football is on the ground, but Rutgers is 11th against the run this year. Their offense in total has been dreadful at finding the endzone as much promise as the option may have at Army.

Army Will Win Because...: Army can control the clock and field position to make this game a lot closer than we might expect. Ellerson's club has Schiano's beat at special teams, believe it or not. Rutgers has been awful in the return game all year long ranking 115th in kickoff and 112th in punt returns.

Keep an Eye on...: DE Jonathan Freeny of Rutgers. Freeny? DE? He's actually a distant relative of the other Freeney (even with the different spelling). Army's offensive line play hasn't been great and should have their hands full with Freeny on the edge.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Rutgers will get a halfway solid road victory. Not that beating Army is a big deal or anything, but the Scarlet Knights need all the victories they can get their hands on with a freshman starting QB. This game won't be all that competitive or entertaining for that matter, but I want to see Army's option game in action for an extended period of time, so I'll be watching. Rutgers wins it with good defense, 27-12.

I Walk the Lines: Week 8

noreply@blogger.com (Eric) — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 18:32:00 +0000

Ooooh yeah, 6-1 last week. The one game I missed was Colorado State +20.5 over TCU, but oh well. That bumps the overall record to 22-13. The lines used for this segment are from College Football Poll's computer picks section which come via Vegas Insider.

Northern Illinois -13 @ Miami OH - The Redhawks may be at home, but they're on the fast track to an 0-12 season. While they were expected to be bad under Haywood's first year of coaching, not many thought zero wins could actually happen. Basically, this team has been beyond horrific. The matchup you want to watch for here is the Husky rushing attack against Miami's poor run defense. They're giving up 173 yards a game going against Meco Brown and Chad Spann. This is easy, take NIU without the points. They should win this by closer to 20.

UNLV -2.5 @ New Mexico - Neither team is playing football that is noteworthy in the most generous use of the term. The Rebels are sitting at 2-5 with a four game losing streak while New Mexico is reeling at 0-6. This team could seriously be one of the worst in the nation and that's an absolute shock compared to the stability that Rocky Long had in place although they hadn't done anything earthshattering since maybe 2004. UNLV though looks like a much better team. They got through the toughest part of their schedule with that always-difficult road test at Wyoming, Nevada, BYU, and Utah. On the other sidelines, turmoil is at its peak with the whole Mike Locksley situation. Besides potential All-American LB Carmen Messina, nothing has gone right. UNLV will win this by 10+ at least. Even a FG win and a surprising effort from New Mexico would result in a win for UNLV's spread outlook, so the Rebels should have the upper hand in this matchup.

Idaho @ Nevada -11 - Man, this is a close game. Can Idaho actually beat a good team on the road? If you want to count Northern Illinois as a good team, that mission has been accomplished by the Vandals. Nevada has gotten back on a tear offensively led by their running game which mysteriously went missing from Chris Ault's pistol repertoire for the first three games. You can't overlook the fact though that Idaho is 6-1 and on a five game winning streak. There is an aura of confidence about them. My only hesitation here would be that the Wolf Pack are looking like a much better team at home. The one that got smoked at Notre Dame, lost at Colorado State, and almost got upset last week against Utah State could be starkly contrasted with the one that gave Missouri a game, ran over UNLV, and whipped Louisiana Tech. I'll take Idaho +11 here because I think they have a shot to win the game; at the least, I'd expect this to be within single digits.

Akron @ Syracuse -9.5 - Again, maybe it's because I'm more knowledgeable about the MAC being a fan of the conference at-large, but there are a lot of lines that seem like easy-picking and this is definitely one of them. The Zips are on a four game losing streak against Indiana, Central Michigan, Ohio, and Buffalo. Their average margin of defeat? 15 points per game. That doesn't bode well. The offense has been horrendous and J.D. Brookhart's job is probably going to be open this winter. Matt Rodgers has been extremely unreliable, although it's not like he's getting any help; This has resulted in the emergence of Patrick Nicely, a freshman, who isn't going to tear it up immediately. Syracuse looks to be improved from last year and even with the inconsistency from Paulus at the QB position, with playmakers such as Mike Williams to chuck the ball to, the Orange should have no issues offensively at home. This game has blowout written all over it, so take Syracuse.

Oregon -5.5 @ Washington - This game is a little tricky mainly due to Washington playing better at home generally. They almost upset LSU, beat USC, luckily beat Arizona, and defeated Idaho which is looking a little better every week. The Ducks come into this game on a five game winning streak and Chip Kelly has taken total control after the LaGarrette Blount fiasco. Masoli hasn't really returned to form in the passing game, but Oregon has remained true to their gashing spread running ability. I'd expect LaMichael James to have a field day against the 86th ranked Washington run defense. Oregon will win this game by double-digits, but it's on the road so stay wary.

Boise State -24 @ Hawaii - You never really know what to expect for this game, but Hawaii will be hosting Boise State in an environment that often results in a competitive matchup. The Warriors have officially tanked with four straight losses. Was that to be expected, though? Hawaii is rarely as competitive on the road as they are at home and that's where three of those four games occurred. Boise State, on the other hand, is coming off of a touchdown victory at Skelly Stadium in Tulsa. You get this team off of the blue turf and they become that much easier to beat. Greg Alexander is out for the year, but watch Bryant Moniz keep this game within reach. Boise State will get up big, but look for Hawaii to put up some meaningless points. They won't be within distance to pull off an upset, but look for the Warriors to cover. Take Hawaii +24.

Florida -24.5 @ Mississippi State - Here's another projected blowout by a road team. I've been taking some road favorites recently, but I've been skeptical of Florida and these large spreads. Florida favored by 25 over Tennessee. Fail. Florida favored by 22 over Arkansas. Fail. Granted they blew out Kentucky, but that was before Tim Tebow got injured. Tebow was healthy against Tennessee, but that doesn't invalidate the point. Urban Meyer has gone Jim Tressel on all of our asses! He's coaching so conservatively and letting his defense carry most of the load. You can argue whether or not that's the right thing to do, and it probably is, but that doesn't justify the size of these spreads. Mississippi State looks a little better on both sides of the ball compared to the disastrous Sylvester Croom era and, kind of like the USC/Washington deal, Dan Mullen is a former assistant for the Gators and should have some inside info. Florida will win by close to 20 on the road, but a 25 point win is a bit of a stretch in my opinion. Take Mississippi State.

Game Previews: PVAM vs. Southern, FSU vs. UNC

noreply@blogger.com (Eric) — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 18:21:00 +0000

When: 7:30 PM ET, ESPNU

Why You Should Care: This game might as well decide the SWAC, or at least the Western division. There's still Grambling State to worry about, but these two schools seem to be the frontrunners right now. Prairie View A&M has really turned their football program around in recent years and Southern's offense is lighting up the scoreboard. Should make for an interesting matchup.

Prairie View A&M Will Win Because...: Defense. The Panther D is allowing 14 points against per game which is pretty solid. They gave up 21 to New Mexico State and lost by a field goal earlier this year. The Jags like to air it out and that plays right into the hands of A&M's strength in their secondary.

Southern Will Win Because...: They have the playmakers offensively. You can praise Prairie View's defense all you'd like, but they gave up 32 earlier this year to Grambling State as well. So while they are solid, they aren't world-beaters. The Jaguars have the arm of Bryant Lee behind center who is 28th in passing efficiency throughout the FCS. Their turnover margin benefited big time from last week against Fort Valley State, but number one is number one and that is what Southern is in the turnover department.

Keep an Eye on...: Southern WR Juamorris Stewart. If you haven't seen Stewart play yet, you're missing out on a solid athlete. Stewart has 600+ yards receiving already to go with 8 TD grabs.

And the Crystal Ball Says: I'm really torn here, but I'll take Praire View A&M. This is probably a bad idea considering they're on the road, but I'd like to watch the matchup between their defense and Southern's offense. Things should cancel out and make this an evenly contested game, so I'll go with the defensive prowess to win, 27-21.

When: 8:00 PM ET, ESPN

Why You Should Care: With all of the hype surrounding Bobby Bowden's future, just look at what Butch Davis has done at North Carolina. The Tar Heels were expected to compete for a division title, but they've proven to have no substance as of right now. Things are still building in Chapel Hill, but they can get things turned around quickly with a win against a reeling Noles team.

Florida State Will Win Because...: Okay, even if Florida State doesn't make a bowl game, that doesn't suggest a lack of talent. They have been in every game so far this year, so is it possible that they just haven't been able to seal the deal yet? Maybe those three ACC games and the USF loss were just unfortunate circumstances and odds; it's possible to flip a coin four times and get four tails in a row right? As for some more concrete analysis, the offense has done a much better job moving the football around. If Christian Ponder was on a winning team, this guy would be getting some Heisman love. He's 6th in total offense in the FBS so far and the Noles have the 27th best offense.

North Carolina Will Win Because...: It was Georgia Southern, but they ended the bleeding of that disappointing two game losing streak. Saying North Carolina is ailing might be a little harsh, but the offense has been very disappointing against the better defenses on their slate. Sure they had success against ECU, The Citadel, and GSU, but scoring more than 30 against Florida State has not proven to be very difficult so far this year. North Carolina, believe it or not, has the top pass defense in the country. That could be because five of six of their opponents are running-intensive offenses (probably why), but we shouldn't sell them short in the secondary; they will limit Florida State's passing game.

Keep an Eye on...: DE Robert Quinn of North Carolina. If there's one reason North Carolina's pass defense has managed to keep the lid on the opposing QBs, Quinn might be it. He's racked up 7 sacks and 3 forced fumbles already this year. If he's disruptive, Florida State loses. Simple as that.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Man, am I really going to pick Florida State to win a conference game? Yes, yes I am. I still don't believe this team will be bowling come December since they're already 2-5 (that includes a future loss to Florida that's in the bag). So there are plenty of opportunities to lose, but this is a team that has just fallen to, as mentioned earlier, unfortunate circumstances. They're better than 2-4 and 0-3 in ACC play for sure and their offense will do enough to keep the leaky defense afloat. It will be a close and somewhat sloppy game, but FSU finally gets in the win column, 34-20.

Game Preview: Tulsa vs. UTEP

noreply@blogger.com (Eric) — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 21:16:00 +0000

When: 8:00 PM ET, ESPN

Why You Should Care: It's a battle between C-USA West titans! That might be a bit generous for Mike Price's UTEP Miners, but the boys from El Paso are indeed in the running for a bowl game. This game will go a long way in determining the division champ considering UTEP has already defeated Houston. Tulsa will attempt to get back on track after a touchdown loss to Boise State last Wednesday.

Tulsa Will Win Because...: Without no-huddle wizard Gus Malzahn, the Tulsa offense has dipped. However, should they have much issue against UTEP's defense which is allowing close to 495 yards per game? This is certainly one of the worst units in the nation and Tulsa should pick them apart. The Miners have been kind of hit-or-miss this year with their scoring offense ranked 82nd in the country.

UTEP Will Win Because...: C-USA West in recent years has been weird to Tulsa and Houston. Remember last year when Houston beat Tulsa 70-30? Of course the Miners beat the on-fire Houston Cougars this year and absolutely demolished their defense in the process. Last year SMU almost knocked off Tulsa and Houston in back-to-back weeks and that was then they were 1-11. So all in all, this is a division where just about anything can happen.

Keep an Eye on...: RB Donald Buckram, UTEP. Who's Donald Bruckram? Funny you should ask, he happens to be the 19th best running back in rushing yards per game. I'm not going to blame you if you've never heard of him because he has broken out this year from obscurity. With a 260+ yard effort against Houston at home, if the Miners can grind out some big chunks of yardage on the ground, they might have a shot in this game.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Common sense would tell us Tulsa will win, but common sense doesn't mean much in C-USA West. I'm still going with Tulsa. UTEP's offense has been sporadic, but their defense has managed to be consistently porous. Look for Tulsa to win a high-scoring affair with UTEP showing up to play, 47-44.