Yesfx國際版noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous)Thu, 5 Sep 2024 13:19:49 -0700Blogger http://www.blogger.com346125http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/en-usnoYesfx國際版noreply@blogger.comhttp://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2015/07/blog-post.html經濟學與心理學實戰運用noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous)Thu, 9 Jul 2015 00:16:00 -0700tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2288508985945107688.post-5585042265246989389<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> 股市大漲大跌時的總經效應,如果用散戶的盈虧想法來思考,只會一團混亂.</div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> <br /></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> 對整個社會來說,每天的漲跌只會產生資金換手,而非輸贏.我們可以把股市想成一個黑盒子:</div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJcy2euug1BkrwIkDek9q068pOidjZOPjHsiVu7EfyWDVMNXy9WT7M6CPiZd1dK1Y3yxBQRQIl1mOiIa3yr0xrxoKdWuyycDgZBBVgQ0jCrd8F-e3ye7f6aRW-UTS6KkynIpsv0dEBw1hl/s1600/aa.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJcy2euug1BkrwIkDek9q068pOidjZOPjHsiVu7EfyWDVMNXy9WT7M6CPiZd1dK1Y3yxBQRQIl1mOiIa3yr0xrxoKdWuyycDgZBBVgQ0jCrd8F-e3ye7f6aRW-UTS6KkynIpsv0dEBw1hl/s1600/aa.jpg" /></a></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> <br /></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> 假如股市中企業體質變化不大時,股價大漲會創造出短期虛幻的帳面財富,股價大跌時帳面一部份資產會被暫時隱藏.但實體經濟影響不大.長期的指數走勢可分為以下三種:</div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> <br /></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> <br /></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhv1sDwPx13I7VTbuCDhO7Z7t-wRxJdvsjkEBnCFMb3RzFf-c0nuCEwt43mZXXAlUgYNcuOs0o22cKej25SiU-LGJjZdtAPcrfQ5mDt8yXJyZJEXibVhBD8ssAhBu54MxrPerjT2KjcLaQa/s1600/aa.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="186" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhv1sDwPx13I7VTbuCDhO7Z7t-wRxJdvsjkEBnCFMb3RzFf-c0nuCEwt43mZXXAlUgYNcuOs0o22cKej25SiU-LGJjZdtAPcrfQ5mDt8yXJyZJEXibVhBD8ssAhBu54MxrPerjT2KjcLaQa/s640/aa.jpg" width="640" /></a></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> <br /></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> 第一種當然是所有人的奢望.這仰賴企業營運不斷提供配息,帳面財富上升才是真財富.第二種就是一場夢,最終回歸現實.第三種是夢靨,騙局一場.完全被坑殺.</div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> <br /></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> 中國股市目前最像B.企業營運沒變化,資金從投資人手中轉移到印股票套現的大股東手中.不過現在新的問題是借貸.不管是個人向正規管道融資,地下管道融資,企業挪用資金炒股通通都是問題.假設中國股市合理淨值是10兆,炒股拉高後虛胖成20兆.在高點附近透過借貸跳進來5兆,又被大股東賣股套走了6兆.價格回歸現實後淨值剩9兆.借貸方5兆變成了大股東的財富.中國股市的大股東=政府國有企業.這些企業圈錢能幹嘛?應該有大量資金等同彌補過去5年地方債問題+過剩產能+房市虧損.</div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> <br /></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> <br /></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> 也就是說過去6年中國亂搞/貪汙/貪官移民產生的虧損黑洞,由熱情借錢炒股股民買單.這只是一場國家巧妙徵收民間資金的大戲而已,<b><span style="color: blue;">從投資人的角度來看很殘忍,但以總經的觀點來看,倒不算壞事.股市對經濟的功用本來就是讓企業融資用的.現在企業成功取得資金後,經濟重新出現動力機率將會上升.</span></b></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> <br /></div> </div> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript"><!-- google_ad_client = "pub-4897056762301700"; //468x60, 已建立 2008/1/26 google_ad_slot = "2560146195"; google_ad_width = 468; google_ad_height = 60; //--></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js"> </script></div>3http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2015/05/2014.html商品期貨noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous)Mon, 4 May 2015 03:10:00 -0700tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2288508985945107688.post-5125646736614290582<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> 1月舊文已猜測原油崩跌原因是冬季需求首度因天然氣取代熱燃油需求造成的.</div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> <br /></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> <a href="http://blog.cnyes.com/My/YesFX/article2112387">原油有機會提前止跌</a>&nbsp;2015/1/27</div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> <br /></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJTPWdrvJD0BZ0uADjf_Twf4fvYVevnzeyNBsjvQ94mTCqnVchDJBPp5xzhbm15qUxYnlfiykeLEN4EgNMS91xD2dwOU4gombeqPxcNuIWvuff6xNfBAkWZ_b7_Yh80J1vO9xcvR-ZMbsh/s1600/aa.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJTPWdrvJD0BZ0uADjf_Twf4fvYVevnzeyNBsjvQ94mTCqnVchDJBPp5xzhbm15qUxYnlfiykeLEN4EgNMS91xD2dwOU4gombeqPxcNuIWvuff6xNfBAkWZ_b7_Yh80J1vO9xcvR-ZMbsh/s1600/aa.jpg" /></a></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> <br /></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> 現在發現了新證據:</div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> <span id="goog_819200328"></span><span id="goog_819200329"></span><br /></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEji5q_TW-WBLkViral7HiMXPaoZ9MdxSEmXXgWKE3y17uOCgzyBBqEQp5s5-XmLXPoSWVwSHAofU6eQ-kM9jRbwiOFTmZr53p8lbn87IAT-AXKyEuw7QIqFWmBI56B3m8QnfhCsLcE7W0Pi/s1600/aa.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEji5q_TW-WBLkViral7HiMXPaoZ9MdxSEmXXgWKE3y17uOCgzyBBqEQp5s5-XmLXPoSWVwSHAofU6eQ-kM9jRbwiOFTmZr53p8lbn87IAT-AXKyEuw7QIqFWmBI56B3m8QnfhCsLcE7W0Pi/s1600/aa.jpg" /></a></div> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYZRSn1TxlPNcOxSzaELWZP8fIkgNQSfR2L6olXqSPVyUOLF4__5O7l1j4bbieGTI8M0WDaGVf66eWrgSQ3xmthqlFph5rTzyyIRtc9I2Lp-Di9RACONPKrYomt4iNSA80JGyyFI9QqXYP/s1600/aa.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="350" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYZRSn1TxlPNcOxSzaELWZP8fIkgNQSfR2L6olXqSPVyUOLF4__5O7l1j4bbieGTI8M0WDaGVf66eWrgSQ3xmthqlFph5rTzyyIRtc9I2Lp-Di9RACONPKrYomt4iNSA80JGyyFI9QqXYP/s640/aa.jpg" width="640" /></a></div> <br /> <br /> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKw2T9eJEpLoE1pMPENf7aycKEXxYEV3sm_N_jHOFggc96byDzrfYIwbQ3LWODj2XNLlYpSZQuk4y0ckFgoGrQqcitqP4-eoWUq3U1Mm3nBXtmFz9AKGHbblQmjsVV0JVzlcYfX5n1gqps/s1600/aa.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKw2T9eJEpLoE1pMPENf7aycKEXxYEV3sm_N_jHOFggc96byDzrfYIwbQ3LWODj2XNLlYpSZQuk4y0ckFgoGrQqcitqP4-eoWUq3U1Mm3nBXtmFz9AKGHbblQmjsVV0JVzlcYfX5n1gqps/s1600/aa.jpg" /></a><span style="text-align: left;"></span></div> <div style="text-align: left;"> 2014年成品油油輪運價突然出現急漲.這與油價下跌,需求不振完全相左.最可能的原因就是搶運燃油(柴油).原油提煉分餾,會同時產出汽油與燃油(重油),需求低的就變成庫存.因此1995年以前庫存升降有極明顯季節性.2010年以後這現象消失.燃油庫存變成連續下降.原因就是天然氣價格大跌,造成發電與冬季供暖燃料逐步轉換.不過設備變更需要時間.從天然氣價格來看.供暖改用天然氣應該是2013年才完成.2014年天然氣價格驟跌,讓煉油廠出現降庫存壓力(等同2012).因此降價大拋售燃油至歐洲與亞洲.</div> <div style="text-align: left;"> <br /></div> <div style="text-align: left;"> 因此春天來臨後這樣的供需失調自然就消失.油價也順利回升!</div> <br /> <br /> <br /></div> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript"><!-- google_ad_client = "pub-4897056762301700"; //468x60, 已建立 2008/1/26 google_ad_slot = "2560146195"; google_ad_width = 468; google_ad_height = 60; //--></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js"> </script></div>2http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2015/03/2015.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Anonymous)Wed, 25 Mar 2015 01:21:00 -0700tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2288508985945107688.post-8792686889349291198<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCzepZ7Y3sVHEEIpm3u8zLdNPa95ePFK6-Hiwj_sg77eHPzoIJWVF3VM_s7gvFubpcxLXdBDw2GW8kUz8Ay14Azzel_nwc7C0Fm9ybkGm8H6ev6ANP-DNJf0Za7OEZua6if8NXgGNIKSpF/s1600/aa.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCzepZ7Y3sVHEEIpm3u8zLdNPa95ePFK6-Hiwj_sg77eHPzoIJWVF3VM_s7gvFubpcxLXdBDw2GW8kUz8Ay14Azzel_nwc7C0Fm9ybkGm8H6ev6ANP-DNJf0Za7OEZua6if8NXgGNIKSpF/s1600/aa.jpg" /></a></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> <br /></div> <span style="font-family: inherit;">英國大選預計將在5月7日舉行,根據<span lang="EN-US" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">Populus</span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">民調顯示，英國工黨支援率爲</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">34%</span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">，保守黨支援率爲</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">31%(<b><span style="color: blue;">現任執政黨</span></b>)</span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">，獨立黨支援率爲</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">17%</span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">，自由民主黨(<span style="color: blue;">目前與保守黨結盟</span>)支援率爲</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">9%</span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">，綠黨支援率爲</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">5%.</span></span><br /> <span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;"><br /></span></span> <span style="background-color: white;">上述支持率讓這次大選對經濟影響分析變得非常棘手,因為:</span><br /> <br /> <span style="background-color: white;">1.不會出現絕對多數,聯合政府如何組織有多種選擇.</span><br /> <span style="background-color: white;">2.工黨屬性偏左,同屬左派的政黨綠黨與蘇格蘭民族黨都支持蘇格蘭獨立, 第三大黨獨立黨偏右,卻是英國脫歐的主要推動者.. &nbsp;超亂!</span><br /> <span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span> <div style="text-align: left;"> <span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: white;">第三大黨獨立黨(UKIP).這個政黨成立的目標就是透過公投讓英國退出歐盟.</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white;">2014</span><span style="background: white;">年歐洲議會選舉<span style="color: #252525;">，獨立黨成為英國</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #252525;">73</span><span style="background: white; color: #252525;">個席次中第一大黨，總得票數比工黨和保守黨為多。不少是原保守黨的支持者。這表示脫歐這議題似乎頗受歡迎.</span></span></div> <div style="text-align: left;"> <span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background: white; color: #252525;"><br /></span></span></div> <div style="text-align: left;"> <span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background: white; color: #252525;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span></span></div> <div style="text-align: left;"> <span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background: white; color: #252525;">不論選舉的結果是甚麼,投資人都有十足的理由對英國前途感到憂慮.不過等選完後,新的執政者換了位置後順便換腦袋,英國甚麼改變都沒發生才是機率最高的結果.</span></span></div> <div style="text-align: left;"> <span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background: white; color: #252525;"><br /></span></span></div> <div style="text-align: left;"> <span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background: white; color: #252525;">選後或許就是英鎊買點.</span></span></div> </div> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript"><!-- google_ad_client = "pub-4897056762301700"; //468x60, 已建立 2008/1/26 google_ad_slot = "2560146195"; google_ad_width = 468; google_ad_height = 60; //--></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js"> </script></div>1http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2015/03/fed_17.html經濟學與心理學實戰運用noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous)Tue, 17 Mar 2015 23:00:00 -0700tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2288508985945107688.post-4511733931350542037<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"> 拜讀總大的文章:<br /> <br /> <h4 style="text-align: left;"> <a href="http://bonddealerbook.pixnet.net/blog/post/413269543"><span style="color: blue;">總經指標的雜訊:非農業就業人口與FED升息之間的零關連性</span></a></h4> <br /> 忍不住要回應一下:非農不是雜訊.只是FED決定升息,真正看的是失業率與通膨.非農是單月的變量,失業率是累積量,但失業率必然受非農影響<br /> <br /> 早在30年前就已經有經驗公式Taylor rule:<br /> <br /> <b>FED合理利率=8.5%+1.4(核心通膨-失業率)</b><br /> <b><br /></b> <b>(聖路易FED網站上可以下載數據)</b><br /> <b><br /></b> <br /> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhg3xbt8B3ycBpfT90RdsPSG9K5Iotrn5BiNy_4_vHz26nY0bkvzRGPCjx36mOpYwHT_PzIA8_Pv_suwFZ9RVEY8i_fO7JCy3h9HvzOLAe2bSvuQvgxCl25ULbhT5EwhB3ly1fT0PtUlzUG/s1600/tailor.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhg3xbt8B3ycBpfT90RdsPSG9K5Iotrn5BiNy_4_vHz26nY0bkvzRGPCjx36mOpYwHT_PzIA8_Pv_suwFZ9RVEY8i_fO7JCy3h9HvzOLAe2bSvuQvgxCl25ULbhT5EwhB3ly1fT0PtUlzUG/s1600/tailor.png" height="332" width="640" /></a></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> <br /></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> <br /></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> 上圖是公式計算出來的結果.看起來並不算規律.</div> <br /> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhj3j8VQO2O04h18x4IBWMuMXN_GWWOM7s2I4QiXwioBFv2cMt8WPisAhzQ93OcCDAicUCGMuD5zOYNn4IHY4W5SJ-65NB-PSmBtTSP8Nme372vexOAhmNO3zfpNcyvW8MH6wQIspAgboFa/s1600/fedrate.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhj3j8VQO2O04h18x4IBWMuMXN_GWWOM7s2I4QiXwioBFv2cMt8WPisAhzQ93OcCDAicUCGMuD5zOYNn4IHY4W5SJ-65NB-PSmBtTSP8Nme372vexOAhmNO3zfpNcyvW8MH6wQIspAgboFa/s1600/fedrate.jpg" height="316" width="640" /></a></div> <b><br /></b> <b>若把當時FED的利率水準考慮進來,就能看出規律:FED只要兩者利差驟減時,就會升息.</b><br /> <b><br /></b> <b>PS:FED快速降息時,也會拉低此利差,但那是經濟數據落後反映的結果.(請自行分辨)</b><br /> <b><br /></b> </div> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript"><!-- google_ad_client = "pub-4897056762301700"; //468x60, 已建立 2008/1/26 google_ad_slot = "2560146195"; google_ad_width = 468; google_ad_height = 60; //--></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js"> </script></div>3http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2014/12/blog-post.html經濟學與心理學實戰運用noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous)Fri, 12 Dec 2014 10:17:00 -0800tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2288508985945107688.post-77262342111660897<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"> 很多人以為逆勢接刀是為了凸顯自己的獨特,猜對就像巴菲特一樣耀眼,猜錯就ㄎㄎ.事實上完全不考慮圍觀觀眾的觀感,接刀對實務操作會產生很多優勢.只不過完全以吸引觀眾目光的分析師從沒想過罷了...<br /> <br /> <span style="color: blue;">1.標的明確:</span>操作股票,需要從上千檔標的中挑選兩三檔來操作.即使用技術型態篩選,數量經常在幾十檔以上.而選擇已經大漲大跌的標的猜轉折.媒體與分析師自然會幫你濃縮投資目標數量.我需要做的工作只剩下選擇轉折時機.<br /> <br /> <span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: blue;">2.猜錯時機仍易保有等待時間:</span></span>既然已經大漲大跌.再續漲只會擴大乖離,後續引發轉折的幅度也會更大.有資金做等待的投資人最終 回本或轉虧為盈機率高.做好風控就能用耐心來應對行情.而順勢追價的,比較容易逼迫自己做迫切的決策.<br /> <br /> <span style="color: blue;">3.符合散戶一般人性:</span>便宜買進,價格變貴賣出.雖然這種對便宜/昂貴的直覺式觀感並不合理,但會比順勢交易所說的[追高賣更高]更易理解與執行.<br /> <br /> <br /> 不過要把接刀術練到精熟,需要的技巧也不大一樣:<br /> <br /> a.猜轉折時機會比猜價位更容易成功.<br /> b.要想辦法估算與眼前價格無關的[價值]<br /> c.要猜交易對手的想法與情緒.這點最重要,也最難.<br /> <br /> PS:聽說把接刀術練到更厲害後,拿來做選擇權,就會變成投資奧義~~~~<br /> <br /></div> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript"><!-- google_ad_client = "pub-4897056762301700"; //468x60, 已建立 2008/1/26 google_ad_slot = "2560146195"; google_ad_width = 468; google_ad_height = 60; //--></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js"> </script></div>2http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2014/10/blog-post.html重大事件關鍵報告noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous)Sat, 18 Oct 2014 23:09:00 -0700tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2288508985945107688.post-6718644731755126315<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"> <span style="font-size: large;">頂新魏家黑心油事件,讓輿論的怒火延燒到慈濟.因為魏應充是慈濟弟子,慈濟捐款大戶.這件事慈濟真的毫無責任?</span><br /> <span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span> <span style="font-size: large;">恐怕不是!</span><br /> <span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span> <span style="font-size: large;">網路上轉貼的[前國師李鴻禧求義美給雛妓少女工作]一文,凸顯了巨大的反差:</span><br /> <br /> <a href="http://news.ltn.com.tw/news/life/breakingnews/1131141" style="font-family: Arial, 新細明體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 1.45em; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 30px;">義美搶救雛妓、推廣布袋戲 李鴻禧無償代言回報</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #990000; font-family: Arial, 新細明體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 1.45em; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 30px;">&nbsp;LTN</span><br /> <span style="background-color: white; color: #990000; font-family: Arial, 新細明體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 1.45em; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 30px;"><br /></span> <span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, 新細明體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 1.45em; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 30px;">義美老董的行動就是行善,確實也讓第二代接班人將[良心]深植在企業文化中.而頂新魏家腦袋裡的行善又是甚麼?魏家認知的行善就是捐大筆款項給慈濟,捐大筆款項給各大學食品相關科系.因此賺大錢後捐錢,就成了魏家的核心理念.</span><br /> <span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, 新細明體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 1.45em; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 30px;"><br /></span> <span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, 新細明體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 1.45em; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 30px;"><b>金錢=功德. 這不是慈濟的本意,但這已逐漸變成人們的認知,也確實有慈濟弟子真的以為捐錢就是功德.</b></span><br /> <span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, 新細明體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 1.45em; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 30px;"><br /></span> <span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, 新細明體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 1.45em; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 30px;"><b><span style="color: red;">捐錢不會累積任何功德,蓋寺廟,布施,吃素也無功德,這是每個學佛人都該知道的事.</span></b>達摩對梁武帝說過.達賴喇嘛也強調過.</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, 新細明體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 1.45em; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 30px;">西方天主教早在500年前就爆發過贖罪券爭議.這布施捐獻與功德畫上等號的經典惡例.慈濟努力將過去佛教重視心靈提升與自我救贖,轉化為入世濟世救人的行動力.必定需要獲取金錢,使用金錢.但出現像魏應充這種害人惡徒,慈濟在佛學本質上的忽視難辭其咎!這的確是金錢造成的價值觀偏離.</span><br /> <span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, 新細明體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 1.45em; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 30px;"><br /></span> <span style="font-family: Arial, 新細明體, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 23px; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 30px;">天主教在1562年特倫多大公會議上提出:[禁止金錢換買大赦],1567年獲得教宗正式批准.從此教廷回歸正軌,天主教至今仍是歐美社會最重要的力量之一.</span></span><br /> <span style="font-family: Arial, 新細明體, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 23px; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 30px;"><br /></span></span> <span style="font-family: Arial, 新細明體, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 23px; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 30px;">慈濟與證嚴上人,現在就是最好的改革時機呀!現在切割魏應充是惡業,但沉默不做為應該是更嚴重的造業吧?</span></span><br /> <br /> <br /> <div> <br /></div> </div> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript"><!-- google_ad_client = "pub-4897056762301700"; //468x60, 已建立 2008/1/26 google_ad_slot = "2560146195"; google_ad_width = 468; google_ad_height = 60; //--></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js"> </script></div>0http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2014/07/3176.html重大事件關鍵報告noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous)Tue, 29 Jul 2014 00:48:00 -0700tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2288508985945107688.post-1215077235758868595<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"> 這兩天基亞(3176)因為肝癌新藥PI88臨床三期失敗,股價連續跌停,網路上有是ㄧ片罵聲...惡意炒作?本夢比吹破??<br /> <br /> <span style="background-color: white; color: blue;">害我忍不住想說個公道話..想賺新藥股暴利,這是完全合理的對應風險!</span><br /> <br /> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjthE_wd77Gj12t_-EFy7ouzab33RP_rkG40sYVhs0Oo6qByODk2JsY5CtMXLZW5SjY1yCJR3jfBFfRPCFxozmx7ZQOAMyxoybc-g7NVZmUnrynQ9jX3v1DzMCwCjzOXtLzBWH8ghlyRav0/s1600/aa.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjthE_wd77Gj12t_-EFy7ouzab33RP_rkG40sYVhs0Oo6qByODk2JsY5CtMXLZW5SjY1yCJR3jfBFfRPCFxozmx7ZQOAMyxoybc-g7NVZmUnrynQ9jX3v1DzMCwCjzOXtLzBWH8ghlyRav0/s1600/aa.jpg" /></a></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> <br /></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> <br /></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> 在美國,新藥的臨床試驗不但耗費大量資金,也耗費漫長時間.因此每個階段的估值,至少都會超過合理的研發成本.否則大型藥企併購,就有超額利潤.一項新藥,臨床前準備要1年,臨床試驗至三期,最短也需要5年,審核至量產上市也要2年以上.</div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> <br /></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> <span style="color: blue;">ㄧ般臨床一期過關,藥廠估值就該有0.5億美元.臨床二期1.5億.臨床三期則跳升到5億.</span>新藥如果是創新藥理,治療當前無藥可醫的重症,企業估值就該有接近10億.患病頻率高的新藥價值也高.比如說全球癌症最多的就是乳癌與肺癌.之前的<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 29px;">Puma Biotechnology暴漲是因為他作的是乳癌藥.輝瑞一直加價想併</span><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 29px;">AstraZeneca</span><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 29px;">&nbsp;看中的就是肺癌藥.</span></span></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> <span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 29px;"><br /></span></span></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> <span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 29px;">回頭看基亞.股本13.87億=0.46億美元. 2012年初約50元=2.5億美元.前一陣子高峰時約20億美元. 比一般臨床三期過關估值高.</span></span><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 29px;">但考慮到肝癌是亞洲發生頻率高的重症.而且FDA給的是</span></span>Special protocol assessment.也就是說肝癌藥有迫切的需求.20億美元的估值不算太離譜.只不過國外投資新藥股,大多是臨床三期有正面成果後才追價,因此消息出爐後經常直接跳漲100%.而台灣投資人太輕視臨床二期與臨床三期之間的差距了.</div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> <br /></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> PI88的作用機制是抑制腫瘤血管生成.(<span style="background-color: white; font-family: 宋体; line-height: 25.200000762939453px;">乙酰肝素酶（HPA）抑制劑).醫界對此研究應該已超過10年.照理講研究不會徹底失敗作廢.但基亞要檢討效用不佳,修改藥品,再提臨床試驗,應該需要一段時間,對應股價即使跌完,也會沉寂一陣子.</span></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> <span style="background-color: white; font-family: 宋体; line-height: 25.200000762939453px;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> <span style="background-color: white; font-family: 宋体; line-height: 25.200000762939453px;"><br /></span></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> <span style="background-color: white; font-family: 宋体; line-height: 25.200000762939453px;">想投資新藥股,最好用創投的心態來面對盈虧與資金配置.而非一般的波段操作!暴利的對應代價是猜錯時投資腰斬.猜對機率(新藥成功率)低於50%.</span></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> <span style="background-color: white; font-family: 宋体; line-height: 25.200000762939453px;"><br /></span></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> <span style="background-color: white; color: blue; font-family: 宋体; line-height: 25.200000762939453px;">無此覺悟的還是少碰新藥研發股吧.</span></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> <span style="background-color: white; font-family: 宋体; line-height: 25.200000762939453px;"><br /></span></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> <br /></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> <br /></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> <br /></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> <br /></div> <br /></div> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript"><!-- google_ad_client = "pub-4897056762301700"; //468x60, 已建立 2008/1/26 google_ad_slot = "2560146195"; google_ad_width = 468; google_ad_height = 60; //--></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js"> </script></div>0http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2014/07/blog-post.html經濟學與心理學實戰運用noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous)Thu, 3 Jul 2014 03:03:00 -0700tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2288508985945107688.post-8664113230546551009<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"> <b><span style="background-color: white; color: blue; font-size: large;">當然難!</span></b><br /> <br /> 如果你是投資人.就會明瞭.目前投資決策的最大難題是:[如何避開下一段跌勢?].萬一真的沒避開,那可能是超過20%的資產損失.跌勢可能是下周出現,也可能是下月出現,沒發生前永遠無法確認.也無法知道會不會發生一刀斃命式的損害.<br /> <br /> 如果你是分析師,不論是假設自己一天前進場, or 一週前進場 or 5年前進場.只要順著已發生行情的方向.就能輕鬆愜意.<br /> <br /> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~<br /> 為什麼這麼多的分析師愛暢談[順勢就是王道]這個概念?並不是因為順勢追價真的比較容易賺.也不是順勢比較好作決策.<br /> <br /> 而是<b><span style="color: blue;">因為[順勢就是王道]是掩飾[事後就是王道]最佳的手段!</span></b><br /> 而投資人必須面對未來,不論行情在甚麼階段.不論投資人是菜鳥還是30年老手,應付未知永遠很難!<br /> <br /> <br /></div> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript"><!-- google_ad_client = "pub-4897056762301700"; //468x60, 已建立 2008/1/26 google_ad_slot = "2560146195"; google_ad_width = 468; google_ad_height = 60; //--></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js"> </script></div>2http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2014/06/blog-post.html重大事件關鍵報告noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous)Thu, 12 Jun 2014 06:26:00 -0700tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2288508985945107688.post-8983043689842497756<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSx71C5XZCtzKVEN_xPyGzeAiUUQflXt6ij5qQGPYyAhlCOemxQd4QXIgGBP9OmSAxq4v_Tke5RbMgisNQ02UoVgr7Hhica-aL4n_seM1aqXb-Ior9fMvLuiDn5b6OYWVwWgua398Cv27Y/s1600/Flag_of_Islamic_State_of_Iraq.svg.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSx71C5XZCtzKVEN_xPyGzeAiUUQflXt6ij5qQGPYyAhlCOemxQd4QXIgGBP9OmSAxq4v_Tke5RbMgisNQ02UoVgr7Hhica-aL4n_seM1aqXb-Ior9fMvLuiDn5b6OYWVwWgua398Cv27Y/s1600/Flag_of_Islamic_State_of_Iraq.svg.png" height="200" width="200" /></a></div> <span style="font-size: large;">中東又亂了.這個人類史上最複雜的火藥庫戰亂再起.這次等同是賓拉登的基地組織正式建國!</span><br /> <span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span> <b><span style="font-size: large;">細數一下中東到底有多少難解的問題 :</span></b><br /> <span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span> <span style="font-size: large;">1.以色列 vs 阿拉伯 :3000年世仇.</span><br /> <span style="font-size: large;">2.基督教 vs 十字軍東征:2000年的戰爭等於半部西洋歷史</span><br /> <span style="font-size: large;">3.石油利益:這100年來帶給沙漠民族巨大財富,但也帶來無限殺戮.</span><br /> <span style="font-size: large;">4.地區內種族問題:伊拉克北邊庫德族,橫跨6國,被欺壓千年,一直不斷尋求獨立建國機會.</span><br /> <span style="font-size: large;">5.伊斯蘭派系爭議:伊斯蘭教分為遜尼派與什葉派.在獲取政權上持續激鬥.</span><br /> <span style="font-size: large;">6.無解的問題核心:缺水.在沒有石油以前,這地區無數的戰爭真正爭奪的就是水源.</span><br /> <span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span> <span style="font-size: large;">兩次波灣戰爭,以巴無止境的自殺攻擊與軍事圍剿,每天都在培養新的仇恨.</span><br /> <br /> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiK_h6mrKepMAcF86qgg552MZ_rwmbq55xQJdemOUn9pkMhrSej4XwHhzsZP-R2YMW5cpoiNDVeZhG2Ax52LwBMcvB7rjayHLvkoF3Mxb1p50AzhGCnkMoYJ5IrbfTr9UZ67kqNmwv-Mw6v/s1600/zd.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiK_h6mrKepMAcF86qgg552MZ_rwmbq55xQJdemOUn9pkMhrSej4XwHhzsZP-R2YMW5cpoiNDVeZhG2Ax52LwBMcvB7rjayHLvkoF3Mxb1p50AzhGCnkMoYJ5IrbfTr9UZ67kqNmwv-Mw6v/s1600/zd.jpg" height="323" width="640" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiK_h6mrKepMAcF86qgg552MZ_rwmbq55xQJdemOUn9pkMhrSej4XwHhzsZP-R2YMW5cpoiNDVeZhG2Ax52LwBMcvB7rjayHLvkoF3Mxb1p50AzhGCnkMoYJ5IrbfTr9UZ67kqNmwv-Mw6v/s1600/zd.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><br /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiK_h6mrKepMAcF86qgg552MZ_rwmbq55xQJdemOUn9pkMhrSej4XwHhzsZP-R2YMW5cpoiNDVeZhG2Ax52LwBMcvB7rjayHLvkoF3Mxb1p50AzhGCnkMoYJ5IrbfTr9UZ67kqNmwv-Mw6v/s1600/zd.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><br /></a></div> <br /> <span style="font-size: large;">這次ISIS跟基地組織合流建國(先簡稱為ISIS黎凡特國吧),原因就是派系問題.以前的[中東狂人]海珊是遜尼,沙烏地阿拉伯也是遜尼派.遜尼派佔伊斯蘭教人口多數.另一個派系什葉派是少數,伊朗是什葉派的國家.但是這兩年美國撤軍後,伊拉克由什葉派掌權.因此美國原本培養的伊拉克部隊,因派系關係開始反叛.靠攏的對象就是極端的遜尼派組織:基地組織(蓋達).</span><br /> <span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span> <span style="font-size: large;">因此現在拿著美軍配備,美軍訓練的軍官,正在與蓋達組織配合,不斷攻下伊拉克重要城市.現在的佔領區已掐住伊拉克政府軍的水源命脈,也可控制輸往歐洲的油管.</span><br /> <span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span> <span style="font-size: large;">黎凡特國的西邊是敘利亞,已經內戰多時.敘利亞的總統阿薩德是什葉派,掌控安全部隊.被指控多次屠殺平民.反政府軍大多是遜尼派,對基地組織與黎凡特國友好.如果你是歐巴馬,要怎麼介入??跟屠夫站在一起打遜尼派?那遜尼派老大沙烏地阿拉伯會怎麼想?跟基地組織和談??有點難吧.</span><br /> <span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span> <b><span style="font-size: large;">這次中東的變數會怎麼發展?</span></b><br /> <span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span> <span style="font-size: large;">國際正義不重要.石油利益才是重點.</span><br /> <span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span> <span style="font-size: large;">老美過去佈的局已完全亂掉.下圖是人們傳說伊拉克被石油公司瓜分的狀態</span><br /> <br /> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFVzGg2sypCXj4nQsqU-p3k-foU4RAuC1erEL9O7SKLqQdOgbL8TnmmXVRPIG48HVR06TnmWV8Xrjj_CezK6T9o8Dal52r_oKAEb4JO4tARJlBrda4n2rp5V7C823Tqwqy2WKQxIqr-hXj/s1600/tumblr_m5sar84umc1qap9gno1_500.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFVzGg2sypCXj4nQsqU-p3k-foU4RAuC1erEL9O7SKLqQdOgbL8TnmmXVRPIG48HVR06TnmWV8Xrjj_CezK6T9o8Dal52r_oKAEb4JO4tARJlBrda4n2rp5V7C823Tqwqy2WKQxIqr-hXj/s1600/tumblr_m5sar84umc1qap9gno1_500.jpg" /></a></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> <br /></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> <span style="font-size: large;">中國的中石油也搶進,積極收購與開發接近波灣的油田.這次黎凡特建國.美國可能要靜觀其變,等新的穩定政權出現後,再伺機協商和談吧.反正立即原油供應變少的事歐洲.老美不大痛.</span></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> <span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> <span style="font-size: large;">假如中東這亂局持續一年以上.我不大確定股市會怎麼反映.但是40年前的越戰 VS美股走勢,先複習一下或許會有些用處.畢竟越戰算是美國真正一次[戰敗],而現在的中東局勢算第二次戰敗.</span></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> <br /></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsGTruUKfI71FlXMoptdqjyDXI37r-kJFvU61y8RdPUXoUEJTKbxZ3uOV9R_WjO4nvpvJFmc63-Rzj69ureM8gDoG6OQkOuZMpNIBfk2V3Ik4D8Os2CXbYkDyKX244psT6SUN3xNXaF4Xb/s1600/vit.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsGTruUKfI71FlXMoptdqjyDXI37r-kJFvU61y8RdPUXoUEJTKbxZ3uOV9R_WjO4nvpvJFmc63-Rzj69ureM8gDoG6OQkOuZMpNIBfk2V3Ik4D8Os2CXbYkDyKX244psT6SUN3xNXaF4Xb/s1600/vit.jpg" height="242" width="640" /></a></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> <br /></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> <br /></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> <br /></div> <br /></div> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript"><!-- google_ad_client = "pub-4897056762301700"; //468x60, 已建立 2008/1/26 google_ad_slot = "2560146195"; google_ad_width = 468; google_ad_height = 60; //--></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js"> </script></div>0http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2014/04/blog-post_9.html中國經濟真面目noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous)Wed, 9 Apr 2014 02:05:00 -0700tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2288508985945107688.post-7938517830766456515<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiI-uQG2LLM32Gf2TNOJ6_KCCcl3o57RMsCFKLtOT3bZxC_YLC3ZDfnZ8t88ZRu6HE7fuBYotD0qLPVbSAMEpQZu78IJOAVYdCwSUr3Foaa4eXf4b82KVimEHc4JuFfvhUTfWDSjQyCiT7D/s1600/getImage.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiI-uQG2LLM32Gf2TNOJ6_KCCcl3o57RMsCFKLtOT3bZxC_YLC3ZDfnZ8t88ZRu6HE7fuBYotD0qLPVbSAMEpQZu78IJOAVYdCwSUr3Foaa4eXf4b82KVimEHc4JuFfvhUTfWDSjQyCiT7D/s1600/getImage.jpg" height="320" width="320" /></a></div> <span style="font-size: large;">來談談我跟伯達兄意見相左之處.(好歹我在2011年也寫過一本唱衰中國的輸.上證也從3000跌到2000點.2013年去了上海三趟,與中國的券商有實質的接觸與交流.產生了不少新的想法.)</span><br /> <span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span> <span style="font-size: large;">伯達兄一開始提到的生產/儲蓄 是成長的基礎.同時通縮不是壞事.但我認為這根本是無法實現的烏托邦想法!</span><br /> <span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span> <span style="font-size: large;">生產+儲蓄+通縮 三者的確可以造就一個經濟成長的社會.但是 借貸+消費+通膨 一樣可以.後者比較畸形,危險不安穩,但是易於實現.若兩個各自發展的經濟體一個以生產+儲蓄穩扎穩打,另一個以借貸+消費高速擴張.兩者碰撞競爭時,前者落敗機率應該是99.999999%.</span><br /> <span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span> <b><span style="font-size: large;">[經濟學]是如何運用有限資源的學科 !正確概念!<!------></span></b><br /> <span style="font-size: large;"><b><br /></b> 現在的經濟社會,最稀缺的資源是空間與時間.因此高鐵比自強號貴,商務車廂又比普通車廂貴.既然無法增加時間與空間,那就只能替時空加值.你可以去隔壁小吃店看職棒,費用=一碗麵40元,也可以去現場看.費用=門票+車費+衝動買紀念品+可樂零食費用.這些需求可有可無,因此可以無限提升經濟成長.但是加上了借貸生產機制,就產生了失控風險.<br /> <br /> <b>這樣的經濟運行機制,幾乎不可能扭轉.</b><b>中國就是這樣機制下失控的典型.</b><br /> <b><br /></b> 因此產能過剩,鬼城一大堆,債務滿坑滿谷,銀行又裝死說沒這回事.伯達兄所有描述的弊病都是事實,也是當前中國極難解決的經濟沉苛.我的書中也有提過,中國幾乎把過去50年來全球新興市場引發危機的因子通通收集完全了!<br /> <br /> 不過伯達兄提到的外匯存底/美債問題中,我有不同的看法.其它國家並沒有幫美國消費過度買單.這只是記帳上的誤解!舉實例:<br /> <br /> 中國出口了大量商品到美國,然後把賺的錢買美債,看起來蠢斃了.但是把整個細節在描述的更詳細些,真相是:<br /> <br /> 有一家公司叫作鴻海,在中國大量製造商品,賣到美國賺錢..錢是鴻海的.不過鴻海外資持股近50%.那真正在中國製造商品賺的錢到底屬於中國人?還是台灣人?還是美國人?如果最終的權益是美國人的,那現在資產以人民幣形式存在,未來要領走時,中國該怎麼辦??<b>答案似乎只有一個:中國央行必須持有足夠的美元(美債)因應未來的提現需求.</b>也就是說新興市場國家持有美債,不是愚蠢的選擇,而是必然的結果.至於中國壓抑匯率升值的利弊,比想像中複雜,本國貨幣發行額浮濫,只是其中一項效應.<br /> <br /> 由於中國在金融體系與匯率制度上的開放仍不多,因此中國當前的債務,形式與結構都相當奇特.<br /> <br /> 1.我們看到中國巨額的外匯存底,其實等同是中國的外債!(我算過,外債比重至少70%以上).但台灣與日本的外匯存底,因長年的利息收入與本國企業的順差,大多算是資產,而不是外債.<br /> <br /> 2.中國有滿坑滿谷的城投債與企業債,這些算內債,但是這些內債就像是媽媽與兒子打麻將輸一屁股後,兒子不會把媽媽移送法辦,也不會找人討債求償一樣,正常狀況債務淹到頭頂,也不會破滅.<br /> <br /> <b>因此內債要出事,還是需要外債(熱錢)推一把才能發生.</b><br /> <br /> 外部國際因素是考量中國問題的重點,美國對中國的態度,我並不認為是新冷戰..美國把蘇聯當作最大敵人,蘇聯解體是美國最大勝利.但是我認為美國並沒有把中國視為敵人,而是視為最大肥羊.慢慢刮才是最爽的.因此美國對中國的[問應手],我覺得有壓迫,也有幫助(美國其實有能力拉高黃豆/煤/銅 價,逼死中國,但實際上確是壓低價格緩和中國困境)<br /> <br /> 美國應該也完全不擔心人民幣挑戰美元地位這件事.我認為這根本是金融業的鬼扯幻想.貨幣只是交易的媒介.真正決定美元霸權地位的因子是:美國擁有最多的生產資源(天然資源/商業模式/專利/人才),與最多的終端消費.前者中國要追上,恐怕不是300年內看得到的事,後者若中國30年內追上,美國大概已經賺到手抽筋了...<br /> <br /> <b>最後大家最關心的一件事:中國經濟到底會不會破滅?</b><br /> <br /> 我的想法是:應該會.<br /> <br /> 但形式與細節,需要好好思考.<br /> <br /> 人們最常談到的日本泡沫經濟破滅,我認為實際上是泡沫後軟著陸的最佳典範.日本目前還是世界上最有錢的國家之一,在1990年後實際上都沒有出現GDP深度變成負值.失業率驟增破表的現象..真正的大跌只有股價與房價.這不就是大家期望看到的結果嗎?實體經濟正常運行,無意義的泡沫資產逐步回歸正常.銀行死氣沉沉,實業繼續高歌猛進.<br /> <br /> 中國的股市已經爛到2000點了.再爛中國民眾大概也無感.以股市作為泡沫破滅的判斷標準,那破滅是[已經發生]而且可能接近尾聲.<br /> <br /> 如果以債務違約,金融秩序瓦解作為泡沫破滅標準.那破滅仍有很多不確定性!很多人以為債務的結局不是正常被償還,就是違約.實際不然.國家賴帳才是真實世界的常態.<br /> <br /> 違約是硬性賴帳,發生機率罕見,需要匯集各種條件才會發生.<br /> 另外兩個更常見的賴帳手段是:<br /> 1.貨幣貶值---&gt;老美最愛用這招.<br /> 2.對內通貨膨脹--&gt;多數新興國家都用這招.<br /> <br /> 這兩招溫和賴帳的共通特色都是需要時間,現在必須考慮到中國持續拖延這個可能性最高的策略.中國目前還有A.人民幣開放.B.降息.C.降稅 三大殺手鐧.只要外在環境沒惡化,死拖活拖三五年應該還是辦得到.如果5年內讓通膨增20%(工業物料上漲,食品下跌,土地升幅同cpi),那現在的有毒資產五年後就變成生財金雞母.中國有可能已拖待變的關鍵就在於中國的銀行業不會[雨天收傘],(兒子不會將媽媽移送法辦,央企A也不會主動搞垮央企B)<br /> <br /> 因此中國未來可能走2009~2011美國的老路.寬鬆+製造通膨以拖待變.房產小跌後硬撐,銀行殭屍化.<br /> <br /> 房價泡沫正如伯達所說,非常棘手.因為炒房等同寅吃卯糧,提前消滅了二三十年的民眾消費能力.我在舊著作中也認為中國從世界工廠轉為世界市場是天方夜譚.但這兩年與中國接觸後,<b>發現不一定.(我推翻自己書中論點)中國能無中生有變出奇妙的需求!</b><br /> <br /> 2013年下半年起台灣太陽能股票強強滾.真正的原因就是來自中國太陽能的需求.中國未來3年太陽能裝機量,可能等於歐美過去10年的總和!這是怎麼辦到的?中國太陽能成本特別低?補貼特別高嗎?答案是No!太陽能還是很貴.<br /> <br /> 但是太陽能裝機數量是地方官員的政績評比標準!不管賺賠.裝就對了.裝完後上網電價補貼怎麼辦?虧空國庫嗎?答案還是NO,國家電網補貼太陽能廠.然後壓抑向火電購電價格.火電打壓煤炭價格.結果就變成山西原本富得流油的煤老闆在光明正大的[市場機制]下補貼太陽能到苦哈哈為止.<b>中國的資本主義根本不是以追求利益這個大前提建立起來的.</b>因此太陽能貴,中國可以推展.電動車競爭力低,中國可以用規定直接變出市場.反腐可以反到連cpi都驟降.<br /> <br /> <b>也就是說中國可以犧牲部份產業利益,製造出另一個產業與需求爆炸性成長.</b><br /> <b><br /></b> <b>中國這樣的經濟轉型過程,可能持續5年以上.整體經濟可能如日本一樣持平掙扎(前提是國際總經無惡化),但是各產業間冰火二重天現象會越演越烈.選錯產業你會以為置身金融破滅地獄,選對產業你會以為抓到飛天的火箭.</b><br /> <b><br /></b> <b>這就是中國經濟最匪夷所思之處:破滅與崛起可能同時併存!</b><br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> </span> <br /> <!------><!------></div> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript"><!-- google_ad_client = "pub-4897056762301700"; //468x60, 已建立 2008/1/26 google_ad_slot = "2560146195"; google_ad_width = 468; google_ad_height = 60; //--></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js"> </script></div>1http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2014/04/blog-post.html重大事件關鍵報告noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous)Tue, 8 Apr 2014 22:54:00 -0700tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2288508985945107688.post-166575158052461920<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"> <span style="font-size: large;">很多人都覺得,反服貿這一役改變了很多人.我也深刻的體會到了!</span><br /> <span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span> <span style="font-size: large;">今天去上謝金河社長的節目,談的是人民幣.另一位來賓是[投資中國信息網]的李孟洲社長.過去的認知中,所有財經界,媒體界的人士幾乎都距離[偏綠]非常遙遠.也認為對中國親善是必走的路.在節目中謝金河非常急切的談論對服貿議題的想法.</span><br /> <span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span> <span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b>1.搞到現在,服貿真的玩不下去了.不會過.</b></span><br /> <span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><b><br /></b></span> </span><br /> <div style="text-align: left;"> <span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b>2.[先談服貿,再談貨貿],[不談服貿,台灣無法加入國際區域經濟組織].這根本是徹底的謬論,狗屁不通的邏輯! TPP(<span style="background-color: white; line-height: 24.919998168945313px;">跨太平洋夥伴關係)是美國主導,最重要功能是防堵中國,怎可能需要中國同意咧?</span></b></span></div> <div style="text-align: left;"> <span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: large; line-height: 24.919998168945313px;"><b><br /></b></span></div> <div style="text-align: left;"> <span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: large; line-height: 24.919998168945313px;"><b>3.中國對台灣不應該只是讓利,應該要以更大的胸襟協助台灣加入區域組織.這才是化解台灣人民敵意最佳策略.</b></span></div> <div style="text-align: left;"> <span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: large; line-height: 24.919998168945313px;"><br /></span></div> <div style="text-align: left;"> <span style="font-family: arial, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: large; line-height: 24.919998168945313px;">長期與中國密切往來的財經人士觀點真的變了!過去的思想主軸是說服台灣人接受中國,但現在變成期望中國更承認台灣國際現實地位.第三點涉及統獨的核心原則.以前財經媒體大多選擇避談,現在則視為解決僵局的良藥.</span></span></div> <div style="text-align: left;"> <span style="font-family: arial, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: large; line-height: 24.919998168945313px;"><br /></span></span></div> <div style="text-align: left;"> <span style="font-family: arial, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: large; line-height: 24.919998168945313px;">別跟我說這是賣台集團的懷柔嘴臉.多數台灣人都知道直接投降被中國合併,與完全獨立成新的國家都是背離現實的選擇.[維持現狀]則是鴕鳥想法.目前所有問題的合心亂源.台灣有一群被綠營視為[賣台人士],長期密切與中國接觸,在中國經商的人,實際上是尋求解答的關鍵人物.問題在於台灣人需要知道誰可信?誰是奸細?</span></span></div> <div style="text-align: left;"> <span style="font-family: arial, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: large; line-height: 24.919998168945313px;"><br /></span></span></div> <div style="text-align: left;"> <span style="font-family: arial, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: large; line-height: 24.919998168945313px;">反服貿會鬧這麼大,相信連中國高層也會感到詫異.服貿的條文只是導火線.真正的問題在於馬金政權作為中國的代理人太不稱職.說服台灣的方法不是用騙的,用嚇的,再不然就是偷吃步爛招.當然是反效果.不過話說回來,民進黨也是只會吃紙打架胡鬧的一群人.台灣不需要中國代理人,其實也不需要台獨代言人.(這次反服貿,d黨變不出有用論述,只能看著學生決策,老王收割,自己默默打雜當義工)</span></span></div> <div style="text-align: left;"> <span style="font-family: arial, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: large; line-height: 24.919998168945313px;"><br /></span></span></div> <div style="text-align: left;"> <span style="font-family: arial, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: large; line-height: 24.919998168945313px;"><b>如果能讓中國直接面對台灣人民的直接民主決策,統獨僵局或許真的能看到曙光</b>.</span></span></div> <div style="text-align: left;"> <span style="font-family: arial, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: large; line-height: 24.919998168945313px;"><br /></span></span></div> <div style="text-align: left;"> <span style="font-family: arial, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: large; line-height: 24.919998168945313px;">難得台灣從只關心自己錢途,變成一大堆人關心台灣前途.現在該作的是:</span></span></div> <div style="text-align: left;"> <span style="font-family: arial, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: large; line-height: 24.919998168945313px;"><br /></span></span></div> <div style="text-align: left;"> <span style="font-family: arial, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: large; line-height: 24.919998168945313px;">除了割闌尾,割馬金毒瘤以外,最好民進黨也能切腹,光榮解散.排除兩大不稱職代言人後.把決策空間讓給新生代發揮.才能讓台灣享受真正燦爛的陽光.</span></span></div> <div style="text-align: left;"> <span style="font-family: arial, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: large; line-height: 24.919998168945313px;"><br /></span></span></div> <div style="text-align: left;"> <span style="font-family: arial, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: large; line-height: 24.919998168945313px;"><br /></span></span></div> <span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span> <br /></div> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript"><!-- google_ad_client = "pub-4897056762301700"; //468x60, 已建立 2008/1/26 google_ad_slot = "2560146195"; google_ad_width = 468; google_ad_height = 60; //--></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js"> </script></div>5http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2014/03/yellen.html重大事件關鍵報告noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous)Wed, 19 Mar 2014 23:57:00 -0700tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2288508985945107688.post-8861399680815448811<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"> Yellen提出的QE退場與升息時間表,比市場預估的還快,到底影響大不大.最佳的觀察指標就是傳說中的[脆弱五國]<br /> <br /> 脆弱五國的來源就是2013年Q2~Q3時市場預期美國將開始執行QE退場,造成美債利率急升.當時最慘的新興市場國家就被華爾街分析師稱為脆弱五國.(這樣比較好編故事).<br /> <br /> 在2014年1月,美股創新高,媒體爭相暢談新興市場有多慘.脆弱五國就變成年初最被看衰的地區.現在Yellen出招.這些國家就成了觀察緊縮加速影響力的最佳線索:<br /> <br /> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7exY3rxrcZVbiqkcdV2c-iiWAJ1umJouorT5unIGlT96Mf9xYuybFH1ZWzClgxPv67QAZVzxu8kfIOtvhlWEFLcYMfsgCC6sR25F9IzJNYhPh5Fy9Pxmzfmf2Qy2aZP9Q4A2DyyIdDP9a/s1600/5b1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7exY3rxrcZVbiqkcdV2c-iiWAJ1umJouorT5unIGlT96Mf9xYuybFH1ZWzClgxPv67QAZVzxu8kfIOtvhlWEFLcYMfsgCC6sR25F9IzJNYhPh5Fy9Pxmzfmf2Qy2aZP9Q4A2DyyIdDP9a/s1600/5b1.jpg" /></a></div> <br /> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYlLVd2-ijFjrnxpRCyum-BarE0Hmyk09pC4_pKQfHicTExoI5Ij_1rsZkcdm7_5BxVItdXX08mhLTe9kPZi9l5dX9Kca18YCdaJRf0jd-tbRXySSCY9WJBRrc3jsGT2lcPa66m_5ovfJd/s1600/5b2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYlLVd2-ijFjrnxpRCyum-BarE0Hmyk09pC4_pKQfHicTExoI5Ij_1rsZkcdm7_5BxVItdXX08mhLTe9kPZi9l5dX9Kca18YCdaJRf0jd-tbRXySSCY9WJBRrc3jsGT2lcPa66m_5ovfJd/s1600/5b2.jpg" /></a></div> <br /> 怎麼看都覺得目前新興市場根本沒在怕!感覺台灣股匯市還比較脆弱些...<br /> 這表示Yellen說詞並沒有受到全面性認同.也沒有熱錢回流美國的現象發生.</div> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript"><!-- google_ad_client = "pub-4897056762301700"; //468x60, 已建立 2008/1/26 google_ad_slot = "2560146195"; google_ad_width = 468; google_ad_height = 60; //--></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js"> </script></div>0http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2014/02/blog-post_19.html經濟學與心理學實戰運用noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous)Wed, 19 Feb 2014 23:09:00 -0800tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2288508985945107688.post-9126922055252272904<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"> 剛剛看到一個嚇人的數據走勢:美國<span style="background-color: white; color: #356687; font-family: arial; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 16px;">Personal Income</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #356687; font-family: arial; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 16px;">&nbsp;</span><br /> <span style="background-color: white; color: #356687; font-family: arial; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 16px;"><br /></span> <br /> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvtLQRPLq3n82i62_E7x2epQPeNAo1Y_pFzKpgTRudYWOR9vZB9g0DPMTA0Deo4SZj9UYodrR72PDxMOlA8hlu2kSYORWy4BaD-kJITCAHmu4Nd5VXO-ooPhFrVKEVjo3IZv4D7yQLrrwC/s1600/aa.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvtLQRPLq3n82i62_E7x2epQPeNAo1Y_pFzKpgTRudYWOR9vZB9g0DPMTA0Deo4SZj9UYodrR72PDxMOlA8hlu2kSYORWy4BaD-kJITCAHmu4Nd5VXO-ooPhFrVKEVjo3IZv4D7yQLrrwC/s1600/aa.jpg" /></a></div> <span style="background-color: white; color: #356687; font-family: arial; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 16px;"><br /></span> <span style="background-color: white; color: #356687; font-family: arial; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 16px;"><br /></span> <span style="background-color: white; color: #356687; font-family: arial; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 16px;"><br /></span> <span style="background-color: white; color: #356687; font-family: arial; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 16px;"><br /></span> <span style="background-color: white; color: #356687; font-family: arial; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 16px;"><br /></span> <span style="background-color: white; color: #356687; font-family: arial; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 16px;"><br /></span> <span style="background-color: white; color: #356687; font-family: arial; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 16px;"><br /></span> <span style="background-color: white; color: #356687; font-family: arial; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 16px;"><br /></span> <span style="background-color: white; color: #356687; font-family: arial; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 16px;"><br /></span> <span style="background-color: white; color: #356687; font-family: arial; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 16px;"><br /></span> <span style="background-color: white; color: #356687; font-family: arial; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 16px;"><br /></span> <span style="background-color: white; color: #356687; font-family: arial; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 16px;"><br /></span> <span style="background-color: white; color: #356687; font-family: arial; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 16px;"><br /></span> <span style="background-color: white; color: #356687; font-family: arial; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 16px;"><br /></span> <span style="background-color: white; color: #356687; font-family: arial; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 16px;"><br /></span> <span style="background-color: white; color: #356687; font-family: arial; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 16px;"><br /></span> <span style="background-color: white; color: #356687; font-family: arial; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 16px;"><br /></span> <span style="background-color: white; color: #356687; font-family: arial; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 16px;"><br /></span> <span style="background-color: white; color: #356687; font-family: arial; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 16px;"><br /></span> <span style="background-color: white; color: #356687; font-family: arial; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 16px;"><br /></span> <span style="background-color: white; color: #356687; font-family: arial; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 16px;"><br /></span> <span style="background-color: white; color: #356687; font-family: arial; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 16px;"><br /></span> <span style="background-color: white; color: #356687; font-family: arial; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 16px;"><br /></span> <span style="background-color: white; color: #356687; font-family: arial; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 16px;"><br /></span> <span style="background-color: white; color: #356687; font-family: arial; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 16px;"><br /></span> <span style="color: #356687; font-family: inherit; font-size: xx-small;"><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 16px;"><b>這可能與美國最近打算調高最低工資有關.企業如果覺得政府調升最低薪資是沉重負擔.現在就會開始凍結漲薪與徵人.這項因子可能因此觸發非農就業人數轉負.加上巴塞爾協議實施造成放貸驟減,嬰兒潮退休造成的人口結構老化,美國正式步入衰退並非天方夜譚,杞人憂天!</b></span></span><br /> <span style="color: #356687; font-family: inherit; font-size: xx-small;"><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 16px;"><b><br /></b></span></span> <span style="color: #356687; font-family: inherit; font-size: xx-small;"><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 16px;"><b>PS:惡因只算剛萌芽,距離束手無策還相當遙遠.</b></span></span><br /> <span style="color: #356687; font-family: inherit; font-size: xx-small;"><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 16px;"><b><br /></b></span></span> <span style="color: #356687; font-family: inherit; font-size: xx-small;"><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 16px;"><b><br /></b></span></span> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> </div> <span style="background-color: white; color: #356687; font-family: arial; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 16px;"><br /></span> <span style="background-color: white; color: #356687; font-family: arial; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 16px;"><br /></span> <span style="background-color: white; color: #356687; font-family: arial; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 16px;"><br /></span> <span style="background-color: white; color: #356687; font-family: arial; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 16px;"><br /></span> <span style="background-color: white; color: #356687; font-family: arial; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 16px;"><br /></span> <span style="background-color: white; color: #356687; font-family: arial; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 16px;"><br /></span> <span style="background-color: white; color: #356687; font-family: arial; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 16px;"><br /></span> <span style="background-color: white; color: #356687; font-family: arial; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 16px;"><br /></span> <span style="background-color: white; color: #356687; font-family: arial; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 16px;"><br /></span> <span style="background-color: white; color: #356687; font-family: arial; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 16px;"><br /></span> <span style="background-color: white; color: #356687; font-family: arial; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 16px;"><br /></span> <span style="background-color: white; color: #356687; font-family: arial; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 16px;"><br /></span> <span style="background-color: white; color: #356687; font-family: arial; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 16px;"><br /></span> <span style="background-color: white; color: #356687; font-family: arial; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 16px;"><br /></span> <span style="background-color: white; color: #356687; font-family: arial; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 16px;"><br /></span> <span style="background-color: white; color: #356687; font-family: arial; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 16px;"><br /></span> <span style="background-color: white; color: #356687; font-family: arial; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 16px;"><br /></span> <span style="background-color: white; color: #356687; font-family: arial; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 16px;"><br /></span> <span style="background-color: white; color: #356687; font-family: arial; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 16px;"><br /></span> <span style="background-color: white; color: #356687; font-family: arial; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 16px;"><br /></span> <span style="background-color: white; color: #356687; font-family: arial; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 16px;"><br /></span> <span style="background-color: white; color: #356687; font-family: arial; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 16px;"><br /></span> <span style="background-color: white; color: #356687; font-family: arial; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 16px;"><br /></span> <span style="background-color: white; color: #356687; font-family: arial; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 16px;"><br /></span> <span style="background-color: white; color: #356687; font-family: arial; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 16px;"><br /></span> <span style="background-color: white; color: #356687; font-family: arial; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 16px;"><br /></span></div> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript"><!-- google_ad_client = "pub-4897056762301700"; //468x60, 已建立 2008/1/26 google_ad_slot = "2560146195"; google_ad_width = 468; google_ad_height = 60; //--></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js"> </script></div>1http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2014/02/blog-post.html騙術大全noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous)Thu, 6 Feb 2014 18:51:00 -0800tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2288508985945107688.post-3111306112797357184<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdV-UEyooOwgFEV7Q7z9WPPDboy0u5L-XcGqWTavakcH6mEiIHIb4kAA7lvnM4Mek6Q72sBwfSTS2sWN0WGz_t7paLYC_aGrqq3xeeye9S_LPQaz7C4-TFqTFxrlGytEAV6ThLrP_W9qle/s1600/aa.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdV-UEyooOwgFEV7Q7z9WPPDboy0u5L-XcGqWTavakcH6mEiIHIb4kAA7lvnM4Mek6Q72sBwfSTS2sWN0WGz_t7paLYC_aGrqq3xeeye9S_LPQaz7C4-TFqTFxrlGytEAV6ThLrP_W9qle/s1600/aa.jpg" /></a></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> <br /></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> 從這張圖來看,融資戶在8600以上減碼了29億,然後在下跌中(價位8450)再減21億.然後在8300以下買回40億.這明明是漂亮成功的價差交易,但無人讚賞.</div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> <br /></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> 分析師的反應是:</div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> <br /></div> <h1 style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: 'Microsoft JhengHei', 微軟中黑體, 微软雅黑, 'Microsoft Yahei', 微軟正黑體, PMingliu; font-size: 19px; line-height: 28px; list-style: none; margin: 5px; padding: 0px;"> 1/20 <a href="http://www.cnyes.com/report/rsh_article.aspx?id=185955">早盤開低測支撐 多方急駐怒軋空</a>&nbsp;元大期</h1> <div> <br /></div> <div> <span style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Verdana, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 15px; line-height: 25px;">隨時序進入封關倒數時刻，其實也不難想見其風險調控的需求隨之增溫，目前在電、金雙引擎持續驅動下，下檔空間應不會太大。</span></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> <br /></div> <h1 style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: 'Microsoft JhengHei', 微軟中黑體, 微软雅黑, 'Microsoft Yahei', 微軟正黑體, PMingliu; font-size: 19px; line-height: 28px; list-style: none; margin: 5px; padding: 0px;"> 2/6&nbsp;<a href="http://www.cnyes.com/report/rsh_article.aspx?id=186226">電子大軍來助陣 多方回神欲反擊</a>&nbsp; 元大期</h1> <div> <span style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Verdana, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 15px; line-height: 25px;">由市場主力的籌碼面切入觀察，無疑對空方相對有利，除非有夠大的利多挹注，否則短線逢彈仍不宜躁進。</span></div> <div> <span style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Verdana, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 15px; line-height: 25px;"><br /></span></div> <div> <span style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Verdana, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 15px; line-height: 25px;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span></div> <div style="text-align: left;"> <span style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Verdana, 微軟正黑體; line-height: 25px;">至今不會有任何投資人認為融資散戶比元大期貨更專業,我相信未來也不會.但類似的戲碼會不斷重演.為啥融資的贏家永遠不受認同??答案很簡單:</span></div> <div style="text-align: left;"> <span style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Verdana, 微軟正黑體; line-height: 25px;"><br /></span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Verdana, 微軟正黑體; line-height: 25px;">資訊的傳遞先天不對稱.分析師比較多話,一年365天天天發言.而散戶比較沉默.這些[躁進的融資]賺到錢後只會默默數鈔票,不會大聲嚷嚷.</span></div> <div style="text-align: left;"> <span style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Verdana, 微軟正黑體; line-height: 25px;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Verdana, 微軟正黑體; line-height: 25px;"><span style="color: blue;">結論:[融資是反指標]這個明顯背離現實的概念會持續深深烙印在多數投資人腦海中.不會改變.</span></span></div> <div style="text-align: left;"> <br /></div> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /></div> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript"><!-- google_ad_client = "pub-4897056762301700"; //468x60, 已建立 2008/1/26 google_ad_slot = "2560146195"; google_ad_width = 468; google_ad_height = 60; //--></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js"> </script></div>0http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2014/01/70.html經濟學與心理學實戰運用noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous)Wed, 8 Jan 2014 19:04:00 -0800tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2288508985945107688.post-4390530550575525143<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"> 投資分析,比照過去歷史曾發生的走勢是一項重要的功課.只不過想找到一模一樣的歷史情境永遠不可能.最多只能找到類似的狀況作比對.<br /> <br /> 從1981年至今30年,美國一直處於利率緩慢下降的大環境中,對應的則是看似無限美好的股市前景,現在與1995~2000年時類似,人們暢談長期投資的快樂經驗,只不過1995年被推崇的是:[隨時買,隨便買,不要賣]這項金科玉律,現在則是包裝成[定時定額買ETF..本質上差異不大.<br /> <br /> 如果現在是長期利率利率上漲的起點,那1981~2013的經驗將不適用於2014年以後..未來的走勢該比對的是1955~1980才對<br /> <br /> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_Hj7xRVNobykGWMC0BDdKeu6AUF2MvB1KEHGIHsdAiY9Q0V3Hv4LO598TY29awl_lUaouHjAsfDMX1R7QLuUbsgTjB6zmszC6ZwGM5SIFV_5irKMf4Etc1GZvmukPUb51Jrx31Bqlu4Nx/s1600/aa1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_Hj7xRVNobykGWMC0BDdKeu6AUF2MvB1KEHGIHsdAiY9Q0V3Hv4LO598TY29awl_lUaouHjAsfDMX1R7QLuUbsgTjB6zmszC6ZwGM5SIFV_5irKMf4Etc1GZvmukPUb51Jrx31Bqlu4Nx/s1600/aa1.jpg" /></a></div> <br /> 上圖<br /> 藍線=非農就業<br /> 綠線=5年債利率變化(已將作標軸改成指數形態,而非殖利率)<br /> 紅線=sp500走勢<br /> <br /> 並且將FED升息降息的位置標示出來. 1971年以前央行的動向沒找到(以前的Target rate不一定是fed fund rate,不易比對)<br /> <br /> <br /> 簡單的結論是:<br /> 1.紅框框出來的時間就是股跌債跌的區間,發生還蠻頻繁的.<br /> 2.當利率上升引發就業下降時=股市完蛋<br /> 3.利率上升就業上升=股市高檔震盪<br /> 4.當時的FED行為看起來既無法救股市,對債市的影響效果也不彰.<br /> <br /> 或許這就是未來的投資大環境概況!</div> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript"><!-- google_ad_client = "pub-4897056762301700"; //468x60, 已建立 2008/1/26 google_ad_slot = "2560146195"; google_ad_width = 468; google_ad_height = 60; //--></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js"> </script></div>2http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2013/12/2012-top-ten-selling-drugs.htmlUS stock market(美股評論)noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous)Sun, 15 Dec 2013 01:07:00 -0800tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2288508985945107688.post-4056565276734343585<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <b><span lang="EN-US" style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;inherit&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; padding: 0cm;">1. </span></b><b><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: inherit; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: inherit; padding: 0cm;">修美樂</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;inherit&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; padding: 0cm;">(</span></b><b><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: inherit; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: inherit; padding: 0cm;">阿達木單抗</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;inherit&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; padding: 0cm;">, Humira, Adalimumab</span></b><b><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: inherit; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: inherit; padding: 0cm;">）銷售額：</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;inherit&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; padding: 0cm;">94.8</span></b><b><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: inherit; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: inherit; padding: 0cm;">億美元</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #888888; font-family: &quot;Helvetica&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <b><span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; font-family: 新細明體, serif; padding: 0cm;"><br /></span></b></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <b><span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; font-family: 新細明體, serif; padding: 0cm;">藥廠:</span></b><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: 新細明體, serif; text-align: left;">雅培</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: transparent; text-align: left;">Abbott Laboratories(ABT)</span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: transparent; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;">用於類風濕關節炎治療，鑒於後續拓展的一系列新適應症：銀屑病關節炎、強直性脊椎炎、斑塊型銀屑病、克羅恩病，今年</span><span lang="EN-US">10</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;">月初，</span><span lang="EN-US">FDA</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;">又批准了它的第</span><span lang="EN-US">7</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;">個適</span> <span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;">應症——潰瘍性結腸炎。</span></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: transparent; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;"><br /></span></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: transparent; text-align: left;"></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span lang="EN-US" style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;inherit&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; padding: 0cm;">2. </span><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: inherit; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: inherit; padding: 0cm;">恩利</span><span lang="EN-US" style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;inherit&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; padding: 0cm;">(</span><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: inherit; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: inherit; padding: 0cm;">依那西普</span><span lang="EN-US" style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;inherit&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; padding: 0cm;">, Enbrel, Etanercept</span><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: inherit; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: inherit; padding: 0cm;">）銷售額：</span><span lang="EN-US" style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;inherit&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; padding: 0cm;">83.7</span><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: inherit; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: inherit; padding: 0cm;">億美元</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #888888; font-family: &quot;Helvetica&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="color: red; font-family: 新細明體, serif;"><span style="font-size: 19px;"><br /></span></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;"><b>藥廠:</b></span><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: 新細明體, serif; text-align: left;">安進公司</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: transparent; text-align: left;">Amgen(AMGN)</span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; line-height: 14.25pt;">用於類風濕關節炎（</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 14.25pt;">RA</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; line-height: 14.25pt;">）、強直性脊柱炎（</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 14.25pt;">AS</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; line-height: 14.25pt;">）等風濕病及免疫性疾病。</span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; line-height: 14.25pt;"><br /></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span lang="EN-US" style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;inherit&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; padding: 0cm;">3. </span><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: inherit; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: inherit; padding: 0cm;">舒利迭</span><span lang="EN-US" style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;inherit&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; padding: 0cm;">(</span><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: inherit; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: inherit; padding: 0cm;">沙美特羅</span><span lang="EN-US" style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;inherit&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; padding: 0cm;">-</span><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: inherit; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: inherit; padding: 0cm;">氟替卡松</span><span lang="EN-US" style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;inherit&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; padding: 0cm;">, Advair, Seretide</span><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: inherit; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: inherit; padding: 0cm;">）銷售額：</span><span lang="EN-US" style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;inherit&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; padding: 0cm;">80</span><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: inherit; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: inherit; padding: 0cm;">億美元</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #888888; font-family: &quot;Helvetica&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: inherit; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: inherit; padding: 0cm;"><b style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: medium;"><br /></b></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; color: red; font-family: 新細明體, serif; padding: 0cm;"><b style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">藥廠:</b></span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #333333; font-family: 新細明體, serif; text-align: left;">葛蘭素史克</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: transparent; color: #333333; text-align: left;">GlaxoSmithKline(GSK)</span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: transparent; color: #333333; text-align: left;">用於</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #333333; font-family: 新細明體, serif; text-align: left;">哮喘患者</span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="background-color: transparent; color: #333333; font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 10.5pt; text-align: left;"><br /></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span lang="EN-US" style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;inherit&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; padding: 0cm;">4. </span><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: inherit; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: inherit; padding: 0cm;">類克</span><span lang="EN-US" style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;inherit&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; padding: 0cm;">(</span><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: inherit; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: inherit; padding: 0cm;">英利昔單抗</span><span lang="EN-US" style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;inherit&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; padding: 0cm;">, Remicade, Infliximab</span><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: inherit; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: inherit; padding: 0cm;">）銷售額：</span><span lang="EN-US" style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;inherit&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; padding: 0cm;">76.7</span><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: inherit; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: inherit; padding: 0cm;">億美元</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #888888; font-family: &quot;Helvetica&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: inherit; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: inherit; padding: 0cm;"><b style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: medium;"><br /></b></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; color: red; font-family: 新細明體, serif; padding: 0cm;"><b style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">藥廠:</b></span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #333333; font-family: 新細明體, serif; text-align: left;">強</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #333333; text-align: left;"> </span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #333333; font-family: 新細明體, serif; text-align: left;">生(JNJ)和默克(MRK)</span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="color: #333333; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">緩解病情抗風濕藥，</span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"> </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">抑制甲型</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;">腫瘤壞死因數<span style="color: #333333;">的藥物</span></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;"><span style="color: #333333;"><br /></span></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span lang="EN-US" style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;inherit&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; padding: 0cm;">5. </span><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: inherit; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: inherit; padding: 0cm;">美羅華</span><span lang="EN-US" style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;inherit&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; padding: 0cm;">(</span><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: inherit; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: inherit; padding: 0cm;">利妥昔單抗</span><span lang="EN-US" style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;inherit&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; padding: 0cm;">, Rituxan </span><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: inherit; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: inherit; padding: 0cm;">）銷售額：</span><span lang="EN-US" style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;inherit&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; padding: 0cm;">69.4</span><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: inherit; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: inherit; padding: 0cm;">億美元</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #888888; font-family: &quot;Helvetica&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: inherit; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: inherit; padding: 0cm;"><b style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: medium;"><br /></b></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; color: red; font-family: 新細明體, serif; padding: 0cm;"><b style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">藥廠:</b></span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #333333; font-family: 新細明體, serif; text-align: left;">羅氏</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: transparent; color: #333333; text-align: left;">Roche(RHHBY)</span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: transparent; color: #333333; text-align: left;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial, sans-serif; line-height: 12.800000190734863px;">治療非霍奇金淋巴瘤（NHL）的單株抗體</span></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: transparent; color: #333333; font-family: inherit, serif; font-size: 10.5pt; text-align: left;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: x-small; line-height: 12.800000190734863px;"><br /></span></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: transparent; color: #333333; font-family: inherit, serif; font-size: 10.5pt; text-align: left;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: x-small; line-height: 12.800000190734863px;"><br /></span></span></div> <span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: &quot;inherit&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">&nbsp;<span lang="EN-US" style="border: 1pt none windowtext; color: red; font-size: 14.5pt; padding: 0cm; text-align: justify;">6. </span><span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; color: red; font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 14.5pt; padding: 0cm; text-align: justify;">可定</span><span lang="EN-US" style="border: 1pt none windowtext; color: red; font-size: 14.5pt; padding: 0cm; text-align: justify;">(</span><span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; color: red; font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 14.5pt; padding: 0cm; text-align: justify;">瑞舒伐他汀鈣</span><span lang="EN-US" style="border: 1pt none windowtext; color: red; font-size: 14.5pt; padding: 0cm; text-align: justify;">, Crestor, Rosuvastatin</span><span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; color: red; font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 14.5pt; padding: 0cm; text-align: justify;">）銷售額：</span><span lang="EN-US" style="border: 1pt none windowtext; color: red; font-size: 14.5pt; padding: 0cm; text-align: justify;">66.5</span><span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; color: red; font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 14.5pt; padding: 0cm; text-align: justify;">億美元</span><div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span lang="EN-US" style="color: #888888; font-family: &quot;Helvetica&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div> </span><div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: inherit; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: inherit; padding: 0cm;"><b style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: medium;"><br /></b></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; color: red; font-family: 新細明體, serif; padding: 0cm;"><b style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">藥廠:</b></span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #333333; font-family: 新細明體, serif; text-align: left;">阿斯利康</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: transparent; color: #333333; text-align: left;">AstraZeneca(AZN)</span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: transparent; color: #333333; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;">降膽固醇藥</span></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: transparent; color: #333333; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;"><br /></span></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: transparent; color: #333333; text-align: left;"></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span lang="EN-US" style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;inherit&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; padding: 0cm;">7. </span><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: inherit; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: inherit; padding: 0cm;">來得時</span><span lang="EN-US" style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;inherit&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; padding: 0cm;">(</span><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: inherit; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: inherit; padding: 0cm;">甘精胰島素</span><span lang="EN-US" style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;inherit&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; padding: 0cm;">, Lantus</span><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: inherit; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: inherit; padding: 0cm;">）銷售額：</span><span lang="EN-US" style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;inherit&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; padding: 0cm;">61.2</span><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: inherit; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: inherit; padding: 0cm;">億美元</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #888888; font-family: &quot;Helvetica&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: inherit; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: inherit; padding: 0cm;"><br /></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; font-family: 新細明體, serif; padding: 0cm;"><b style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;">藥廠:</b>賽諾菲<span lang="EN-US">Sanofi(SNY)</span></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; font-family: 新細明體, serif; padding: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US">降血糖藥</span></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; font-family: 新細明體, serif; padding: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; font-family: 新細明體, serif; padding: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US"></span></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span lang="EN-US" style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;inherit&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; padding: 0cm;">8. </span><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: inherit; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: inherit; padding: 0cm;">赫賽汀</span><span lang="EN-US" style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;inherit&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; padding: 0cm;">(</span><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: inherit; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: inherit; padding: 0cm;">曲妥珠單抗</span><span lang="EN-US" style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;inherit&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; padding: 0cm;">, Herceptin</span><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: inherit; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: inherit; padding: 0cm;">）銷售額：</span><span lang="EN-US" style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;inherit&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; padding: 0cm;">60.8</span><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: inherit; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: inherit; padding: 0cm;">億美元</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #888888; font-family: &quot;Helvetica&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: inherit; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: inherit; padding: 0cm;"><b style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: medium;"><br /></b></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; color: red; font-family: 新細明體, serif; padding: 0cm;"><b style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體, serif;">藥廠:</b></span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #333333; font-family: 新細明體, serif; text-align: left;">羅氏</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: transparent; color: #333333; text-align: left;">Roche(RHHBY)</span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: transparent; color: #333333; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;">乳腺癌治療藥</span></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: transparent; color: #333333; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;"><br /></span></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: transparent; color: #333333; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;"><br /></span></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: transparent; color: #333333; text-align: left;"></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span lang="EN-US" style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;inherit&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; padding: 0cm;">9. </span><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: inherit; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: inherit; padding: 0cm;">安維汀（貝伐珠單抗</span><span lang="EN-US" style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;inherit&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; padding: 0cm;">, Avastin</span><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: inherit; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: inherit; padding: 0cm;">）銷售額：</span><span lang="EN-US" style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;inherit&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; padding: 0cm;">59.8</span><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: inherit; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: inherit; padding: 0cm;">億美元</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #888888; font-family: &quot;Helvetica&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: inherit; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: inherit; padding: 0cm;"><br /></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; color: red; font-family: 新細明體, serif; padding: 0cm;"><b style="color: black;">藥廠:</b></span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #333333; font-family: 新細明體, serif; text-align: left;">羅氏</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: transparent; color: #333333; text-align: left;">Roche(RHHBY)</span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; color: red; font-family: 新細明體, serif; padding: 0cm;"></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: transparent; color: #333333; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;">乳腺癌,</span></span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #333333; font-family: 新細明體, serif; text-align: left;">卵巢癌</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #333333; font-family: 新細明體, serif; text-align: left;">治療藥</span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="background-color: transparent; color: #333333; font-family: 新細明體, serif; text-align: left;"><br /></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span lang="EN-US" style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;inherit&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; padding: 0cm;">10. </span><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: inherit; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: inherit; padding: 0cm;">立普妥</span><span lang="EN-US" style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;inherit&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; padding: 0cm;">(</span><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: inherit; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: inherit; padding: 0cm;">阿托伐他汀鈣</span><span lang="EN-US" style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;inherit&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; padding: 0cm;">, Lipitor, Atorvastatin)</span><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: inherit; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: inherit; padding: 0cm;">銷售額：</span><span lang="EN-US" style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;inherit&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; padding: 0cm;">55.5</span><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: inherit; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: inherit; padding: 0cm;">億美元</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #888888; font-family: &quot;Helvetica&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: inherit; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: inherit; padding: 0cm;"><br /></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; color: red; font-family: 新細明體, serif; padding: 0cm;"><span style="color: #333333;">藥廠:輝瑞(PFE)</span></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; color: red; font-family: 新細明體, serif; padding: 0cm;"><span style="color: #333333;">降膽固醇</span></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; color: red; font-family: 新細明體, serif; padding: 0cm;"><span style="color: #333333;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; color: red; font-family: 新細明體, serif; padding: 0cm;"><span style="color: #333333;"><br /></span></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; color: red; font-family: 新細明體, serif; padding: 0cm;"><span style="color: #333333;">結論:慢性病用藥比保命藥更無敵.</span></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: inherit; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: inherit; padding: 0cm;"><br /></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: inherit; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: inherit; padding: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: &quot;inherit&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><br /></span></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: inherit; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: inherit; padding: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: &quot;inherit&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><br /></span></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: transparent; color: #333333; font-family: inherit, serif; font-size: 10.5pt; text-align: left;"><br /></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="background-color: transparent; color: #333333; font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 10.5pt; text-align: left;"><br /></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="background-color: transparent; color: #333333; font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 10.5pt; text-align: left;"><br /></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 14.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: inherit; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: inherit; padding: 0cm;"><br /></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: transparent; color: #333333; font-family: inherit, serif; font-size: 10.5pt; text-align: left;"><br /></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-line-height-alt: 14.25pt; mso-outline-level: 3; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: transparent; color: #333333; font-family: inherit, serif; font-size: 10.5pt; text-align: left;"><br /></span></div> </div> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript"><!-- google_ad_client = "pub-4897056762301700"; //468x60, 已建立 2008/1/26 google_ad_slot = "2560146195"; google_ad_width = 468; google_ad_height = 60; //--></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js"> </script></div>0http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2013/10/blog-post.htmlUS stock market(美股評論)noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous)Fri, 4 Oct 2013 20:43:00 -0700tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2288508985945107688.post-7192066795705123592<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"> <div class="MsoNormal"> <span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;\000B &quot;;">2010</span><span style="font-family: 標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;\000B &quot;;">年世界總的乙烯原料量約爲<span lang="EN-US">3.5</span>億噸，其中石腦油占<span lang="EN-US">54%</span>，乙烷占<span lang="EN-US">16%</span>，液化石油汽占<span lang="EN-US">12%</span>，輕柴油占<span lang="EN-US">10%</span>，凝析油占<span lang="EN-US">8%</span>。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal"> <br /></div> <div class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-family: 標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;\000B &quot;;">目前頁岩氣製成乙烯成本只有石油裂解<span lang="EN-US"> 1/3 </span>或更低<span lang="EN-US">!<o:p></o:p></span></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal"> <br /></div> <div class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-family: 標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;\000B &quot;;">頁岩氣製程乙烯擴產計畫<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal"> <br /></div> <div class="MsoNormal"> <span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;\000B &quot;;">Exxon:150</span><span style="font-family: 標楷體; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;\000B &quot;;">萬噸<span lang="EN-US">(2016)<o:p></o:p></span></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal"> <span lang="EN-US">Chervon:150</span><span style="font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">萬噸</span><span lang="EN-US">(2016)<o:p></o:p></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal"> <span lang="EN-US">Dow:150</span><span style="font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">萬噸</span><span lang="EN-US">(2016)<o:p></o:p></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal"> <span lang="EN-US">Shell:</span><span style="font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">不明</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">台塑美國</span><span lang="EN-US">:80</span><span style="font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">萬噸</span><span lang="EN-US">(2016)<o:p></o:p></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal"> <span lang="EN-US">Dow 2012</span><span style="font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年重啟美國乙烯廠</span><span lang="EN-US">:39</span><span style="font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">萬公噸</span><span lang="EN-US">,</span><span style="font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">並提升舊廠產程</span><span lang="EN-US">20%<o:p></o:p></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal"> <b><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: &quot;Arial&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;">Westlake Chemical(WLK) :</span></b><b><span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">舊廠擴產</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: &quot;Arial&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;">20</span></b><b><span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">萬噸</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: &quot;Arial&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;">(2014)<o:p></o:p></span></b></div> <div class="MsoNormal"> <b><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: &quot;Arial&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;"><br /></span></b></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjenTcvgDO8OvKv9_894dquImXaG0EcsIaFgJyI4YG8KMC20BvwcIPnsZ6YbStUGuJ9ih_GsB5CprPhUJYSVBinGVHCiiIvB2tOeLHS16EFC9ZSCCIGg_Ywk8-p4FjkWtnZoseuuj8gxLaY/s1600/aa.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjenTcvgDO8OvKv9_894dquImXaG0EcsIaFgJyI4YG8KMC20BvwcIPnsZ6YbStUGuJ9ih_GsB5CprPhUJYSVBinGVHCiiIvB2tOeLHS16EFC9ZSCCIGg_Ywk8-p4FjkWtnZoseuuj8gxLaY/s1600/aa.jpg" /></a></div> <div class="MsoNormal"> <b><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: &quot;Arial&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;"><br /></span></b></div> <div class="MsoNormal"> <br /></div> <div class="MsoNormal"> <b><span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">目前產能</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: &quot;Arial&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;">(2012):<o:p></o:p></span></b></div> <div class="MsoNormal"> <span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋體, serif;">1</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;">&nbsp;</span><span style="font-family: 宋體, serif;">台塑石化公司</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;">&nbsp;</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋體, serif;">293.5</span><b><span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">萬噸</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal"> <span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋體, serif;">2</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;">&nbsp;</span><span style="font-family: 宋體, serif;">諾瓦化學公司</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;">&nbsp;</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋體, serif;">(</span><span style="font-family: 宋體, serif;">未上市<span lang="EN-US">)</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;">&nbsp;</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋體, serif;">281.2</span><span style="font-family: 宋體, serif;">萬噸</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal"> <span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋體, serif;">3</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;">&nbsp;</span><span style="font-family: 宋體, serif;">阿拉伯石化公司</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;">&nbsp;</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋體, serif;">225.0</span><b><span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">萬噸</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal"> <span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋體, serif;">4</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;">&nbsp;</span><span style="font-family: 宋體, serif;">埃克森美孚</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;">&nbsp;</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋體, serif;">219.7</span><b><span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">萬噸</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal"> <span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋體, serif;">5</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;">&nbsp;</span><span style="font-family: 宋體, serif;">雪佛龍菲利普斯</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;">&nbsp;</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋體, serif;">185.3</span><b><span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">萬噸</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal"> <span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋體, serif;">6</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;">&nbsp;</span><span style="font-family: 宋體, serif;">陶氏化學<span lang="EN-US">180.0</span></span><b><span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">萬噸</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: &quot;Arial&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div> <div class="MsoNormal"> <br /></div> <div class="MsoNormal"> <b><span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">預計</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: &quot;Arial&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;">2016,</span></b><b><span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">美國產能將過剩</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: &quot;Arial&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;">400</span></b><b><span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">萬噸</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: &quot;Arial&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;">,</span></b><b><span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">屆時美國生產成本將比中東低</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: &quot;Arial&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;">,</span></b><b><span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">亞洲乙烯成本變成最高</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: &quot;Arial&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;">!</span></b><b><span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">全球化工生態將丕變</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: &quot;Arial&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;">.<o:p></o:p></span></b></div> <div class="MsoNormal"> <br /></div> <div class="MsoNormal"> <b><span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">乙烯產業副效果</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: &quot;Arial&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;">:<o:p></o:p></span></b></div> <div class="MsoNormal"> <br /></div> <div class="MsoNormal"> <b><span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">由於天然氣熱裂解是</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: &quot;Arial&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;">:<o:p></o:p></span></b></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCDmRjrCoJhg6LFj1Klr3UTDZm2U0bDOivIM1p0P9peiLkCgiNL3G5XBeluhj3-jSmsqEJasztjW-fgmT8ifKW87qAKQ9yovCL5pM0GkSmoIT5ypwv_wSXApQDRcJwAYY6AzbVgVQlEtpJ/s1600/bb.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCDmRjrCoJhg6LFj1Klr3UTDZm2U0bDOivIM1p0P9peiLkCgiNL3G5XBeluhj3-jSmsqEJasztjW-fgmT8ifKW87qAKQ9yovCL5pM0GkSmoIT5ypwv_wSXApQDRcJwAYY6AzbVgVQlEtpJ/s1600/bb.jpg" /></a></div> <div class="MsoNormal"> <br /></div> <div class="MsoNormal"> <br /></div> <div class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">天然氣化工製成將會造成苯與丁二烯這兩個產品成本反而比石油腦製成高</span><span lang="EN-US">!</span><span style="font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">天然氣製程將造成</span><span lang="EN-US">SM,PS,ABS,</span><span style="font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">丁二烯產量下降價格走高</span><span lang="EN-US">.(</span><span style="font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">目前已發生</span><span lang="EN-US">)<o:p></o:p></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal"> <span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheN4mPt0n_zzyLsXM7jr7bKOEve8yHm6gKc8JSatFb1O6EPFdXL278YTr-laVRAY7I5GgNo1KSJMJ086hr-b4OGw1FpuExvgjeDNeiVZK5Uaq-l_W_V21du5tTTlGLOZPoqd0lnbNFUWuj/s1600/cc.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheN4mPt0n_zzyLsXM7jr7bKOEve8yHm6gKc8JSatFb1O6EPFdXL278YTr-laVRAY7I5GgNo1KSJMJ086hr-b4OGw1FpuExvgjeDNeiVZK5Uaq-l_W_V21du5tTTlGLOZPoqd0lnbNFUWuj/s1600/cc.jpg" /></a></div> <div class="MsoNormal"> <span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal"> <br /></div> <br /> <div class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">未來若透過天然氣與乙烯合成甲醇與乙醇</span><span lang="EN-US">(</span><span style="font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">酒精</span><span lang="EN-US">),</span><span style="font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">有可能成為重要燃料來源</span><span lang="EN-US">,</span><span style="font-family: &quot;新細明體&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">取代玉米乙醇與汽油</span><span lang="EN-US">.<o:p></o:p></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal"> <span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div> <div class="MsoNormal"> <span lang="EN-US">PS:原來現在看到的國喬台苯上漲,真正原因是美國頁岩氣革命.</span></div> </div> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript"><!-- google_ad_client = "pub-4897056762301700"; //468x60, 已建立 2008/1/26 google_ad_slot = "2560146195"; google_ad_width = 468; google_ad_height = 60; //--></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js"> </script></div>3http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2013/06/blog-post.html經濟學與心理學實戰運用noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous)Tue, 11 Jun 2013 05:01:00 -0700tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2288508985945107688.post-1957856756990464882投資人永遠必須面對的兩難:<div> <b><br /></b></div> <div> <b>還沒發生的事不論推論再怎麼堅實,總是令人懷疑.</b><br /><div> <b>已經發生的事人們會毫不懷疑,可惜也失去操作機會.</b></div> <div> <b>用已經發生的事推論未來,又回到原點,還是令人懷疑.</b></div> <div> <b><br /></b></div> <div> 當投資人沒有徹底瞭解上述問題時,馬後炮就成了讓自己降低焦慮,讓自己看起來不像群體中的蠢蛋最容易的方法.我在鉅亨的blog上天天都有人誇張的示範各種馬後砲說詞,不過那些很容易分辨,並不是真正的問題,<span style="color: blue;">真正困難的是要分辨自己不知不覺馬後砲,與自己隱藏的投資觀點!</span></div> <div> <span style="color: blue;"><br /></span></div> <div> <span style="background-color: white;">在5/25[大腦煉金術]讀書會後的私下討論中,當時曾有人提出想要低接日股的念頭.那天我的回答是[<b>這時急跌找買點並不合理</b>]</span></div> <div> <span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhaTjnRz1CVEb7UWw_j5ls5k144DM4MYYezkeh_8cHubM5YSkrOo5fJecxgGd8qZmlsCgihhdPJQy01OPcnu548ajwB4OBOCc6vVwKNzGu5Gv-VRBS9QMwoixTknPiY2WlRm_J1zWnD5Kx7/s1600/aa.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhaTjnRz1CVEb7UWw_j5ls5k144DM4MYYezkeh_8cHubM5YSkrOo5fJecxgGd8qZmlsCgihhdPJQy01OPcnu548ajwB4OBOCc6vVwKNzGu5Gv-VRBS9QMwoixTknPiY2WlRm_J1zWnD5Kx7/s1600/aa.jpg" height="201" width="320" /></a></div> <div> 現在想起這件事,當時的回答準確嗎?超準!但這就是馬後炮!如果我當時堅信我的看法正確,後續一周內隨時有追空時機,重點在於我也根本不打算追空!當時我同樣有談論日股急跌的合理性,這又是另一個馬後炮典型的行為:</div> <div> <br /></div> <div> 既然急跌前沒認真關注並評估走勢,急跌後又沒操作意圖,那顯然當時最可能的觀點是沒有看法,最不可能的觀點是看空.由此推論,現在出現[認為自己對日經判斷準確]的感覺當然是馬後炮.</div> <div> <br /></div> <div> [以現在的價位,現在 or 未來一小段時間該做多還是做空] 這論述的答案才是真正的看法.暢談走勢避談可行交易決策的大多是隱藏真正看法的說詞:</div> <div> <br /></div> <div> 今天6/11</div> <div> 1.幾乎所有談論新興市場股匯市急跌的在一周前都沒有看空,現在[趕快大力放空新興市場]的說詞也很少.這就表示目前市場對股市真正的情緒是偏多.</div> <div> 2.目前市場對黃金的情緒是真正偏空.</div> <div> 3.市場對於美債的情緒已偏空,但才剛剛開始而已.</div> <div> <br /></div> <div> PS:了解輿論真正的觀點不等於該反市場操作!</div> <div> <br /></div> <div> <br /></div> <div> <br /></div> <div> <b><br /></b></div> <div> <b><br /></b></div> <div> <br /></div> <div> <br /></div> </div> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript"><!-- google_ad_client = "pub-4897056762301700"; //468x60, 已建立 2008/1/26 google_ad_slot = "2560146195"; google_ad_width = 468; google_ad_height = 60; //--></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js"> </script></div>2http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2013/05/fed.html重大事件關鍵報告noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous)Tue, 28 May 2013 20:32:00 -0700tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2288508985945107688.post-4701304648919498457伯南克看起來似乎不打算續任.目前需要認真猜一下誰是接班人.依照過去經驗,美國總統一向不搞副手扶正升官這種做法.最可能的仍是從信任的班底中提拔.因此<b style="background-color: white; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px;">Council of Economic Advisers (白宮經濟委員會主席)名單是值得參考的List</b><br /> <b style="background-color: white; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px;"><br /></b> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGO1hiDIhE9WP5uxzdxT0sDkqM8EvQHMs2wPGYVPKOX9IdTbP4s4rh5UFXqiC8DBAd7ip_u70vOcIC38PLVWeLjDGWasAJSlcsmCMqzX2bt9t_0EPKpUZsc6rvfkGIgCDnivAMAncaxnVT/s1600/aa.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGO1hiDIhE9WP5uxzdxT0sDkqM8EvQHMs2wPGYVPKOX9IdTbP4s4rh5UFXqiC8DBAd7ip_u70vOcIC38PLVWeLjDGWasAJSlcsmCMqzX2bt9t_0EPKpUZsc6rvfkGIgCDnivAMAncaxnVT/s1600/aa.jpg" height="237" width="640" /></a></div> <b style="background-color: white; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px;"><br /></b> <span style="font-family: sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px;">上表中顯示葛林斯班,伯南客都當過白宮首席經濟顧問,而民主黨執政時期在位的經濟學家有7位(藍框+剛卸任的</span></span><span style="background-color: #f5fafe; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">Alan Krueger)</span><br /> <span style="background-color: #f5fafe; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;"><br /></span> <span style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px;">再來就是好好研究這七位的背景,看誰出線機率最高..(目前未知)</span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript"><!-- google_ad_client = "pub-4897056762301700"; //468x60, 已建立 2008/1/26 google_ad_slot = "2560146195"; google_ad_width = 468; google_ad_height = 60; //--></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js"> </script></div>0http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2013/04/blog-post_24.html騙術大全noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous)Wed, 24 Apr 2013 23:07:00 -0700tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2288508985945107688.post-4434155454612255323<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPiVpdfg07j_8BO8WqQ3b6JR9NdgzDiKt9_05IB2z6dXMpFzSoPPBvK-Slc4jtjjOkWTMjFqG1oRuu18Oovl_mAETQ5nXJEejelvaoBelLIE7bTc9bie7iF576IIWzhNdc8B5b05R_DZfP/s1600/aa.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPiVpdfg07j_8BO8WqQ3b6JR9NdgzDiKt9_05IB2z6dXMpFzSoPPBvK-Slc4jtjjOkWTMjFqG1oRuu18Oovl_mAETQ5nXJEejelvaoBelLIE7bTc9bie7iF576IIWzhNdc8B5b05R_DZfP/s1600/aa.jpg" height="409" width="640" /></a></div> 懶得評論了...<div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript"><!-- google_ad_client = "pub-4897056762301700"; //468x60, 已建立 2008/1/26 google_ad_slot = "2560146195"; google_ad_width = 468; google_ad_height = 60; //--></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js"> </script></div>0http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2013/04/blog-post.html經濟學與心理學實戰運用noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous)Wed, 10 Apr 2013 22:28:00 -0700tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2288508985945107688.post-1997815012133388324<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"> 從2008年開始,貶值與寬鬆救經濟成為顯學:<br /> <div> <br /></div> <div> <h3 class="post-title entry-title" itemprop="name" style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 22px; font-weight: normal; margin: 0.75em 0px 0px; position: relative;"> <a href="http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.tw/2008/10/blog-post_27.html"><span style="color: blue;">經濟蕭條與資本市場崩潰的唯一解決方案</span></a><span style="color: #222222;">&nbsp;2008/10月舊文</span></h3> </div> <div> <h3 class="post-title entry-title" itemprop="name" style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 22px; font-weight: normal; margin: 0.75em 0px 0px; position: relative;"> <a href="http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.tw/2008/11/blog-post.html"><span style="color: blue;">第一次石油危機年代美國經濟發展與美元貶值</span></a><span style="color: #222222;"> 2008/11月舊文</span></h3> </div> <div> <br /></div> <div> 實際上QE是日本人發明的,日本在2000年左右就開始推動QE,但是對拯救日本經濟完全失敗.而當年執掌操控日幣走勢的財務官,就是神原英資的接班人,現任BoJ行長黑田東彥!也因此這次黑田祭出了更威猛的[質化寬鬆]直接調控基礎貨幣.日圓也一路走貶.</div> <div> <br /></div> <div> 不過更早期神原掌權(財務省任內)時,也曾經執行過日圓貶值策略.當時也是美國默許.那段的走勢最後並沒有讓日本經濟真正復甦!</div> <div> <br /></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> </div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLn5E6i49_70khfMqauqEwy5QyDxcyzrEFDgEaoT25UetDWFQpXf36d4JPpT-ZaDPjohHe439fkL-CzEJxrYy74kny4YAQ2-A3ydX3fqcRxgZ8gN0ByGOZGVqJqkuXPzHLIoTWiqvcjW5z/s1600/aa.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLn5E6i49_70khfMqauqEwy5QyDxcyzrEFDgEaoT25UetDWFQpXf36d4JPpT-ZaDPjohHe439fkL-CzEJxrYy74kny4YAQ2-A3ydX3fqcRxgZ8gN0ByGOZGVqJqkuXPzHLIoTWiqvcjW5z/s1600/aa.jpg" /></a></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> <br /></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> 當年神原促貶,的確也讓日經大漲50%,但這也讓新興亞洲經濟備感壓力,觸發了亞洲金融危機.危機導致日本跨國企業增漲停滯,股價跌跌不休,這件事讓日經破底,確因為Carrytrade使日圓快速貶到140元,最後爆發LTCM事件,接著美國網路泡沫後進入漫長的空頭.</div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> <br /></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> 美國的QE造成美國經濟復甦,代價是承受不了高匯率的南歐崩潰引發歐債問題.但是歐美經濟都靠內需,比較有支撐.<b>不過日本與其他靠出口的經濟體系,貶值的效益時效性會更短,副作用則會更嚴重.如果貶值的速度與幅度太快,或許悲慘的歷史就可能重演</b>!</div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> <br /></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> (目前猜測等日股與日圓走勢分岐時,就是關鍵時機)</div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> <br /></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> <br /></div> <div> <br /></div> </div> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript"><!-- google_ad_client = "pub-4897056762301700"; //468x60, 已建立 2008/1/26 google_ad_slot = "2560146195"; google_ad_width = 468; google_ad_height = 60; //--></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js"> </script></div>0http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2013/03/blog-post.html經濟學與心理學實戰運用noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous)Sun, 24 Mar 2013 22:33:00 -0700tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2288508985945107688.post-7213039748889099516<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"> <span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px;">思辨財經讀書會準備開張..</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px;">形式上大致會以導讀與討論的方式進行，每場兩位導讀人，透過對談</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px;"></wbr><span class="word_break" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline-block; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px;"></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px;">甚至是辯論的方式，引導大家讀書，但不盡信書。這個讀書會不是投</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px;"></wbr><span class="word_break" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline-block; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px;"></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px;">資教學，更不是告訴你現在可以投資什麼然後賺你佣金的業配講座。</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px;"></wbr><span class="word_break" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline-block; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px;"></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px;">導讀人的主要任務，可能是介紹書中值得關注的重點，或是另外引述</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px;"></wbr><span class="word_break" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline-block; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px;"></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px;">證據推翻書中的觀點，甚至你可以聽到兩位導讀人與作者的觀點都不</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px;"></wbr><span class="word_break" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline-block; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px;"></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px;">一樣，讓你不知道，什麼才是對的？</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px;">投資沒有標準答案，一座每個人都能挖的金礦，其實你只能分到九牛</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px;"></wbr><span class="word_break" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline-block; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px;"></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px;">一毛。我們鼓勵大家獨立思考，而這個讀書會能提供的是更廣的思考</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px;"></wbr><span class="word_break" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline-block; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px;"></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px;">空間，讓參與者能自己找到自己獨享的金礦。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px;">1.地點在台北市,目前找的場地中,目標是可容納50人</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px;">2.頻率約1個月1次</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px;">3.每次費用估計約300 NT,每次都是預先報名現場繳費.已報名名單會公佈.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px;">4.書目由導讀人訂.至少3周前公佈.會要求參加者閱讀.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px;" /><span class="text_exposed_show" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px;">5.讀書會前後成員可在FB社團頁面討論<br />6.目前導讀人是:我+王伯達+李柏峰.可能再邀其他人.<br />7.有興趣的可以直接用FB帳號加入社團</span><br /> <span class="text_exposed_show" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px;"><br /></span> <span class="text_exposed_show" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px;"><a href="http://www.facebook.com/groups/529490853769096/">http://www.facebook.com/groups/529490853769096/</a></span><br /> <br /> <br /></div> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript"><!-- google_ad_client = "pub-4897056762301700"; //468x60, 已建立 2008/1/26 google_ad_slot = "2560146195"; google_ad_width = 468; google_ad_height = 60; //--></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js"> </script></div>0http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2013/03/foreign-bond.html金融資料庫noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous)Tue, 12 Mar 2013 20:14:00 -0700tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2288508985945107688.post-4184231468728077985各國的國際債券大多會用當地知名物品作為暱稱,令人眼花撩亂.有些國家的國際債券還分成兩種:(外商發行)本幣計價與(本國機構發行)外幣計價,但名稱看不出規則.<br /> <br /> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIZ8uhzszD3hSiD6-DxLrSMTYSeD2GvUtilTTiKhHKMUEsU66IKSZZiONiQbmJMiVtUI_tIRfMzmzRET4zBZRlUePwq_5VEk0m5Pr0wAOuqjZg2jlZOJAUDeqfxFfio0metCV3MgpFpuy_/s1600/aa.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIZ8uhzszD3hSiD6-DxLrSMTYSeD2GvUtilTTiKhHKMUEsU66IKSZZiONiQbmJMiVtUI_tIRfMzmzRET4zBZRlUePwq_5VEk0m5Pr0wAOuqjZg2jlZOJAUDeqfxFfio0metCV3MgpFpuy_/s1600/aa.jpg" /></a></div> <br /> 歡迎各位補充<div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript"><!-- google_ad_client = "pub-4897056762301700"; //468x60, 已建立 2008/1/26 google_ad_slot = "2560146195"; google_ad_width = 468; google_ad_height = 60; //--></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js"> </script></div>1http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2013/02/vs.html經濟學與心理學實戰運用noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous)Thu, 21 Feb 2013 23:50:00 -0800tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2288508985945107688.post-2998449854792159541<br /> <h1 style="background-color: white; clear: both; font-family: 'Microsoft JhengHei', 微軟中黑體, 微软雅黑, 'Microsoft Yahei', 微軟正黑體, PMingliu; font-size: 19px; line-height: 28px; margin: 0px 0px 2px; padding: 0px;"> <a href="http://news.cnyes.com/Content/20130222/KH657W1SXA2Q0.shtml?c=headline_sitehead">〈分析〉瞬間看懂黃金供需結構 衡量金價下跌主因的兩張圖</a> cnyes</h1> <div> <br /></div> <div> 這篇作者提出美債 vs 黃金相關性相反的論點:</div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhkQqRaD_uQaTiXGrwokU8hC1z0-NqBFQWu6vD_Yswm90L1zrjxrrCSIQnJh3TUUzcTOtsaLjif3KWQp9dEfhu_zGWKK3yEokcbXRH7VoaV8Cs_ViQXqEIseKO-gN_GHUqSNJxArRH9DlPp/s1600/201302221100565477972.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhkQqRaD_uQaTiXGrwokU8hC1z0-NqBFQWu6vD_Yswm90L1zrjxrrCSIQnJh3TUUzcTOtsaLjif3KWQp9dEfhu_zGWKK3yEokcbXRH7VoaV8Cs_ViQXqEIseKO-gN_GHUqSNJxArRH9DlPp/s1600/201302221100565477972.jpg" /></a></div> <div> <br /></div> <div> 真的是這樣嗎? 把時間拉長來看:</div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWVe4gz8-Cfhy6GPVXcTFBf0NIUb9tuJnkWZu9AZVx6dHiKZozVoOOg8B3ngyH1eD-ePVjotAxB4A3jppwjnroIQz4GB7G5_5fWgN9LB9fFHqiFxGyBbBrIjGs5ZLxxbeOlub_Z1e9Mhw2/s1600/aa2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWVe4gz8-Cfhy6GPVXcTFBf0NIUb9tuJnkWZu9AZVx6dHiKZozVoOOg8B3ngyH1eD-ePVjotAxB4A3jppwjnroIQz4GB7G5_5fWgN9LB9fFHqiFxGyBbBrIjGs5ZLxxbeOlub_Z1e9Mhw2/s1600/aa2.jpg" /></a></div> <div> <br /></div> <div> 因為抗通膨債券利率資料長度不足 (實際上抗通膨債利率大部分還是與10年債同向).若拿10年債VS黃金的長線走勢來看會是:</div> <div> <br /></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNPOBorALsQE2eCzizHUMU7Ma7gmJkj62WZLdl239xvzrWuKv94Qhyc5WnwqxSD3Csy-NBjWmNB_sAwV-MbJ_qYB2JqCKBj61nxUFlKMxr8j2UaIUpt7boq-INgZYStpfBNVX-_3qZciU3/s1600/inflationgold.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNPOBorALsQE2eCzizHUMU7Ma7gmJkj62WZLdl239xvzrWuKv94Qhyc5WnwqxSD3Csy-NBjWmNB_sAwV-MbJ_qYB2JqCKBj61nxUFlKMxr8j2UaIUpt7boq-INgZYStpfBNVX-_3qZciU3/s1600/inflationgold.png" /></a></div> <div> <br /></div> <div> 上圖中的綠線是CPI,黃金價格從1973後才自由浮動.因此不看更早的走勢</div> <div> <br /></div> <div> 結論:把2008以後視為常態,經常會得到很多錯誤觀念!</div> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript"><!-- google_ad_client = "pub-4897056762301700"; //468x60, 已建立 2008/1/26 google_ad_slot = "2560146195"; google_ad_width = 468; google_ad_height = 60; //--></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js"> </script></div>0http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2013/01/partii.html經濟學與心理學實戰運用noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous)Sun, 27 Jan 2013 03:06:00 -0800tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2288508985945107688.post-4448220719546200598<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwNAIweuDx6mRHT7mZHRBUzJALbjlnws6Evlrr7RCNoIOd9ibtDfjfR-qI-Bn8oEQqu46sNolWT7hJ21nXR7op2mu4DV6UtDjanuTIU1ng_MI5qAfFmjDeSupobTy-0EYf-k_c8i31K7dE/s1600/Ben-Bernanke-dollars.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwNAIweuDx6mRHT7mZHRBUzJALbjlnws6Evlrr7RCNoIOd9ibtDfjfR-qI-Bn8oEQqu46sNolWT7hJ21nXR7op2mu4DV6UtDjanuTIU1ng_MI5qAfFmjDeSupobTy-0EYf-k_c8i31K7dE/s1600/Ben-Bernanke-dollars.jpg" height="155" width="200" /></a></div> 五年前出現了一次巨大的財富消滅過程,2004~2007年期間因葛林斯班大降息,追逐房地產與股市併購的資金快速被消滅,資產泡沫製造的紙上富貴消失無蹤.這就是金融海嘯.<br /> <br /> <a href="http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.tw/2008/10/2008.html" style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 22px;"><span style="color: blue;">錢都到哪去了?從貨幣本質看2008金融海嘯</span></a><br /> <br /> 這場金融災難,由柏南克瘋狂大印鈔阻止了惡性循環,同時政府大量支出刺激經濟,讓民間債務轉移到政府帳上,同時人民與企業默默儲蓄還債.經濟終於出現曙光.<br /> <br /> 不過這不表示經濟會一片美好.印鈔的錢既然是無中生有,自然會被消滅.這流程已經悄悄展開:過去5年裡.全球資金對股市極度不信任,因此大量湧入債券市場.美國公債,市政債加上機構債,規模超過20兆美元.當利率壓低到2%以下,債券價格大漲超過30%.這等同目前追買債券的投資人,都預付了超過10年的利息給債券賣方.當利率上升(債券下跌)時.消滅財富的規模同樣相當驚人.而且過程相當漫長複雜.<br /> <br /> 債券與股票本質大不相同.金融海嘯股價急速下跌時,由於企業營收與獲利同步快速下滑,跌越快投資人越恐慌.因此下跌時走勢呈拋物線.但是債券下跌時初期由於大量衍生性商品需要平倉,因此利率易驟升(同時伴隨通膨上升).但利率上升後投資價值會越來越吸引人.結果後期走勢反而較為平坦.<br /> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGmgj4HIV84HS-jEBhCSUNodZWGgEnm2PnkK0nwPpCSJ8rn3r2ld0SOQGLwGXclJ1uwV0p0nz56Ct8Nu7s3mIxGt3lV7Ej47QTM6N5IDLXAXx1JOXipSs5UKrBBRyV2sCjBRu2IsdxHuit/s1600/10%E5%B9%B4%E5%82%B5.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGmgj4HIV84HS-jEBhCSUNodZWGgEnm2PnkK0nwPpCSJ8rn3r2ld0SOQGLwGXclJ1uwV0p0nz56Ct8Nu7s3mIxGt3lV7Ej47QTM6N5IDLXAXx1JOXipSs5UKrBBRyV2sCjBRu2IsdxHuit/s1600/10%E5%B9%B4%E5%82%B5.jpg" /></a></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> </div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj45bDS2KSzABZFsJAQwg7daHNIi5xRLgZN_pp8YHn7Y2oVGiRJaUZG1i-x1oStOl9rn2AkITbrkiRBJ2RSW-5KCUsJJ9x6xyLmWkl1Xcg29HPYDidcr2WYihqX3_49U2qBDBcKHiPHrUaN/s1600/1981~1988%E7%BE%8E%E5%9C%8B%E9%80%9A%E8%86%A8.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj45bDS2KSzABZFsJAQwg7daHNIi5xRLgZN_pp8YHn7Y2oVGiRJaUZG1i-x1oStOl9rn2AkITbrkiRBJ2RSW-5KCUsJJ9x6xyLmWkl1Xcg29HPYDidcr2WYihqX3_49U2qBDBcKHiPHrUaN/s1600/1981~1988%E7%BE%8E%E5%9C%8B%E9%80%9A%E8%86%A8.jpg" /></a></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> <br /></div> 再比對FED的行為:<br /> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLu14DBa0NF46oxkdmEDEt6qq0so8Dkn1Hp8gTpB5kGsWtP06-Rm0h4oVSLhE0Znhz4T5hOvAJclJH7LDpg5hipNaHXjhez7wC3vmvL3dlhEzE5ni0K0tZ4Rgjsr6SfhlNvLq-tnbxrpAd/s1600/fedfund+rate.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLu14DBa0NF46oxkdmEDEt6qq0so8Dkn1Hp8gTpB5kGsWtP06-Rm0h4oVSLhE0Znhz4T5hOvAJclJH7LDpg5hipNaHXjhez7wC3vmvL3dlhEzE5ni0K0tZ4Rgjsr6SfhlNvLq-tnbxrpAd/s1600/fedfund+rate.png" /></a></div> 在1980年後,大致上美債利率上升/CPI上升/FED升息 三者約略同步.2000年之前利率上升後一年,股市 or 匯市會出現大型災難,再度消滅財富.<br /> <br /> 簡單講.降息與寬鬆是用人為製造的虛幻財富撐住經濟,依照歷史經驗,總有一天要償還.而且償還降息預支的財富,將會是一條驚心動魄的路!<br /> <br /> <br /><div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript"><!-- google_ad_client = "pub-4897056762301700"; //468x60, 已建立 2008/1/26 google_ad_slot = "2560146195"; google_ad_width = 468; google_ad_height = 60; //--></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js"> </script></div>0