ToddsTrade

TLT and SPY

2010-06-28T14:43:00.000-07:00

TLT closed on $100 today (highest close since April 2009).A chart of TLT vs. SPY (bottom chart).The last time this correlation crossed was July 15, 2009 (crazy if it crosses the other way a year to the day). A few days after this cross we got higher highs on the S&P

The SPY closed right on its Lower Median LineWednesday is the last day of the month, how will that effect the markets until then?

candle patterns

2010-03-21T14:17:00.001-07:00

Ran across some text book candle patterns, take a look:
A Bullish Piercing Line pattern in TSL:
OK, this isn't exactly a Bearish Meeting Lines pattern in BA, but comes within a few cents:
Nice example of Support-turned-Resistance looking at the weekly chart:A Bearish Hanging Man in GS:Not very glamorous, but a Bearish Engulfing pattern on the XLI:Bearish Dark Cloud Cover IYT:

measured moves down

2010-02-06T12:24:00.000-08:00

Here's a look at the indexes (in ETF form) over the past 14-days on a 60-minute time frame. All displaying great examples of Fibonacci Retracement levels and Extensions.
The SPY, a very nice example of a corrective A-B-C wave pattern (though A-B-C on the chart weren't meant as Elliot Wave labels). Direct overhead resistance with the 38.2% retracement (measured off of the 2/3 swing high to 2/5 swing low) which is also the previous support from 1/29 (Support-turned-Resistance?).Q's showing the 1-2-3 momentum push. Very upward to sideways-sloping consolidation cycles, compared to the others, I wonder what that says about the participants trading it? (btw, the labels 1-2-3-4-5 are not meant to be Elliot Wave counts). Confluence of Resistance at the $43.30 area where 61.8% and -27.2% meet up.DIA, yet to really "bounce"!? First move would bring it at least to a 38.2% retracement measured off of the 2/3 swing high to 2/5 swing low.and IWM, looks like just a dumping of shares (ditto DIA) these past 3 days. Watching to see how well it handles overhead resistance at 38.2%, and previous support (turned resistance?) at the 50% retracement

Moving

2008-08-16T19:29:00.000-07:00

It's moving day. The blog is called ToddsTrade, so now that's what the URL is going to be...
http://toddstrade.blogspot.com
So come on by and help me start a clean slate. Hope to hear from you all and see you there; thanks!

beer

2008-08-15T12:04:00.000-07:00

wrote the day off and decided to make some beer instead. All done and fermenting as I write. mmmmm vanilla porter.

QLD...again

2008-08-14T13:51:00.000-07:00

Back to QLD today, where most of the money was to be made in the early morning. Quick flags printed the trend up where consolidation formed a triangle (15-minute chart) with support at the first resistance pivot line. A break of the triangle took price up to the second pivot resistance line where momentum died out and price chopped around but didn't give up much ground overall. As you can see oil (as represented by the inset USO chart) is a big determinant to where the indices are going to go.Looking at the Nasdaq Composite Index price is about 1/2 way to the measured move out of the inverted roof, with about 79 points left. Who knows whether it will complete the move up to that resistance level, but it looks pretty strong here.

Hesitation...

2008-08-13T11:13:00.001-07:00

...was my repeating theme today. I gave up on QLD today and focused on the Diamonds Trust ETF DIA. I missed/hesitated on the inverse "Holy Grail" set-ups to the down side. The DIA bottomed/found support (the 200-MA on the 30-minute chart and trend line support on the daily), while also set up an Inverse Head & Shoulders on the chart I was watching (a share bar chart that correlates to a 5-minute chart). I was also watching USO/Oil to give clues to the potential break-out of the Inverse H & S. As USO seemed to top out DIA began to move. Initial target was somewhere between 38.2% & 50% Fib. retracement (from yesterday's close to today's low) depending on the momentum behind it. Price hesitated at 38.2% and got a pop to the 50% level (where it consolidated).
I then continued to watch as DIA formed a cup w. handle pattern on the 15-min. chart. For some reason I couldn't commit to pulling the trigger to buy on the break of the rim. Hesitation payed off in this case, as a break of the rim failed at the open range high, as well as Oil holding onto it's highs of the day.

Chop

2008-08-12T12:53:00.000-07:00

A choppy, messy day. I'm preferring to stick with watching one market lately (that market being the Ultra QQQ ProShares, QLD). It feels to me like a good method to learning to read "the tape." So, here's the one set-up that gave a decent probability to a trade in your direction. On the 15-minute chart (smaller inset chart) a triangle set up over the course of the last two sessions. The faster chart gives a better perspective. You can play it aggressively and short in anticipation of the break-down (somewhere in the long red candle), or more conservatively as price breaks the trend line (same long red candle) or makes a throw-back to the trend line (green high-wave candle).
On the shorter time frame chart (the larger chart) I have an ellipse around an indicator that fires to alert you when Bollinger Bands are squeezing inside of a Keltner Channel. It's not an indicator to trigger you into/out of a trade, but it lends you a condition to increase probability.

QLD trend day

2008-08-11T13:04:00.001-07:00

A beautiful trend in QLD right up until about 2p.m. when the longs seemed to cover at the R2 Pivot Point resistance area.

Dubyah

2008-08-11T11:33:00.000-07:00

G.W. just moved up a notch in my book.

Oil $$$

2008-08-10T17:14:00.001-07:00

Who has profited most from the "oil bubble"; and what are they going to do with all that money??

America Inc.

2008-08-10T16:19:00.001-07:00

We just, last year, finished paying off the debt left from the Vietnam War! WTF?! I found this video over at Mish's site. Go ahead, watch the whole thing!

QLD trend day

2008-08-08T13:17:00.001-07:00

A truly awesome trend day today, Nasdaq up 2.5%. The following is a chart of QLD, and what an orderly chart it is. A lesson in tape reading...

Inverted Roof

2008-08-08T10:38:00.000-07:00

It looks (to me) like an inverted roof has taken shape across all of the major indexes and we're testing a break out above resistance, which could bring us a measured move to the upside, if we could get past the major 50-period Moving Average resistance.
Volume on the break of resistance for the Dow is pretty unconvincing, but a measured move from here puts the upside at around 872 points.
The S&P500 breakout would add about 90 points to the upside. It needs to clear the 50-EMA at this point.The Nasdaq has definitively broken out of this pattern (and above it's 50-EMA) and give us a target of the 2530 area.

Why the Dollar Rally?

2008-08-08T09:18:00.000-07:00

The U.S. Dollar Index has taken off and I'm left wondering; why? I understand gold and oil sold off, the broad indexes are undergoing a bear market rally, and the Fed kept rates steady and expressed concerns over keeping inflation in check. So, how do you connect the dots (if they can be connected) and what else am I missing?
The articles I have found so far give the following correlations:
-The European Central Bank announced expectations of slowed Euro growth. OK, that might explain the Euro/U.S$ correlation, but there are multiple currencies within the U.S.$-index.
-A short squeeze? "The euro crashed through "big support levels in a short period of time," said Kenneth Broux, an economist at Lloyds TSB. "A lot of participants were caught out and forced to liquidate" long euro positions." Perhaps the Euro-zone is slowing down and starting to mirror the situation the U.S. economy has been in for the past 9 months (a.k.a. recession whispers)?
-"...better-than-expected U.S. pending home sales data Thursday and, in particular, the Chinese government's recent imposition of new currency controls were likely among the catalysts for the dollar's broad surge in Asian trading."
"Currency strategists at Commerzbank also downplayed the ECB's role, saying the moves during Asian hours were clearly a reflection of broad "dollar strength," rather than euro weakness...Obviously many market participants are currently re-positioning their currency allocations and [betting] on an end of the prolonged sideways movement."
-"The Chinese measures may be among the triggers they said, leaving investors who had bet on high-yielding currencies or continued gains by China's yuan currency with few alternatives other than the dollar. That backdrop also underpins the Japanese yen, they said, as traders abandon carry trades in which they borrow low-yielding currencies then use the funds to buy assets denominated in higher-yielding currencies."
- Commodity positions are unwinding. "...investors are long commodities, the currencies of countries that benefit from increases in commodity prices, their stocks and their bonds. In addition, many investors are invested in countries benefiting cross-border capital flows tied to increases in commodity prices (Eastern Europe, for example, which, according to the BIS, has been a major recipient of money from the Middle East). The U.S. dollar is a major safe-haven amid this major unwind." This I can see having a pretty broad ripple effect.
-As part of the above explanation, the Australian dollar continues to slide. The longest consecutive decline since 1980. Another commodity correlation.
-Some more articles can be found here. I think my understanding is clearer, but still a little fuzzy.

QLD setups

2008-08-07T12:52:00.000-07:00

QLD using 45,000 share bar chart, trading breaks off of trend lines.

IWM

2008-08-06T20:34:00.000-07:00

Going to be watching IWM tomorrow for a possible Cup-n-Handle breakout...

QLD & FCX

2008-08-06T11:21:00.000-07:00

QLD had some nice set-ups on it today. Here I'm using share bars which I'm tending to prefer these days.I set an alert this morning for FCX near the highs. When it triggered I bought and picked up about $1.50 quickly. I intended on shorting the second test/failure of the highs but got distracted.

Healthcare

2008-08-06T08:37:00.000-07:00

IHF; iShares Healthcare ETF is perking up (perhaps a strategic play in case the Democrats win the White House??). This ETF has top holdings such as AET, HUM, WLP, and CI, that have seen recovery moves of late.

Rotation

2008-08-04T11:17:00.001-07:00

The charts pretty much speak for themselves. Using these ETFs as a general representation of sector performance, many of the big names that have been in play for the past few months are breaking down below their 200 EMAs.
There's MOO, Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (main holdings include BG, MOS, MON, POT). Or, you can check out DBA.KOL, Market Vectors Coal ETF (top holdings include WLT, CNX, MEE, ACI).
SLX, Market Vectors Steel ETF (top holdings include X, MTL, RIO, MT)IYT, iShares Dow Jones Transportation Average is in limbo at the moment, but might be good if Oil continues to the downside (top holdings of BNI, CSX, FDX, NSC, JBLU, CAL)
And then there's PBE, PowerShares Biotech ETF (top holdings being ABI, DNA, GILD, WAT)

KOL

2008-07-30T11:58:00.000-07:00

Market Vector's Coal ETF. KOL shook off it's overbought bias and reclaimed it's 20-day EMA.

EWZ

2008-07-30T09:42:00.000-07:00

EWZ, iShares Brazil ETF, snapped up today to cling to it's 200EMA. It's also printing a bullish momentum divergence.

watching

2008-07-29T16:51:00.000-07:00

PBW is a clean energy ETF with solar holdings that we all have on our watchlists.SLX is a steel ETF that might be a good play this week as we saw some big moves today in AKS, RS, MTL (bullish hammer after capitulation?), X, MT, et al..

trend day

2008-07-29T14:07:00.000-07:00

DIA presented another trend day today, except it was in the opposite direction from yesterday. Most of yesterday's support levels were in the same areas.
While the Q's took off in the morning and chopped sideways the rest of the day. It had a pop up at the 50-MA.

mess

2008-07-28T14:37:00.001-07:00

I found this video while reading HPTs blog.