EuroTelcoblog

My big fat Greek restructuring

2009-11-06T10:12:00.002Z

Well, looks like the third party interlopers in the WIND Hellas situation waited a bit too long to show their hand. However, the investment from Weather only delivers EUR50m in additional liquidity to the company, with the remaining EUR75m going to consent fees and transaction costs. Once the subordinated debt holders have been crushed (the FRNs are quoted 3 - 5, and the PIK notes are looking extremely hot at 1/16 - 9/16), the company should save c.EUR95m in interest costs before taking into account the margin increases for the senior lenders. In short, the company should be stabilized by this deal, but things are going to be tight for a long time, and the market still needs to consolidate, so let's call it Chapter One.

A question for European equipment vendors

2009-11-05T11:33:00.004Z

Q: How do you compete with a privately held national champion with a $30bn credit line?

A: Maybe you don't.

(P.S., Starent is in the process of being acquired by Cisco, so you'll probably be seeing them around a bit more too.)

Tuesday morning drive-by

2009-11-03T11:21:00.002Z

Still trying to recover from eComm last week in Amsterdam, and get caught up on other things. I would love to do a lengthy post on eComm, but I don't have the time, unfortunately. Stated simply, I think it is the finest event of its type on the planet. Lots of short and punchy presentations, many of them challenging and provocative, covering a wide range of aspects around communications (note my omission of the prefix "tele"), with a low tolerance level for bullshit, and good representation from people who are actually doing innovative things. Not many carriers were present (I counted four), but then why would carriers be interested in new developments in communications? And no IMS, HADOPI, or any other toxic and delusional acronym-based strategies were to be found - heaven! I gave a 15-minute talk on day one, and moderated a panel on day two. Wish I could have stayed for day three, which sounds like it was very interesting indeed. Take my advice - bookmark the next event and just go. You won't regret it.

Speaking of interesting events - tomorrow I'll be moderating a panel at Telco 2.0 in London, which has apparently seen a huge level of interest and registrations. I'm looking forward to the event and the Thames River cruise which follows. Hope to see you there!

I've come to the conclusion that my "social media brand" strategy is inevitably doomed to be one of fragmentation. Sometimes I have something to say or point to which is suitable for this blog, but which I just don't have time to write a proper blog post on. If you're interested in capturing any of that stuff, you may wish to follow me on Twitter. I know it is probably over-hyped as a medium, but it is imminently suitable to certain types of expression, such as "31bn? That's 3x BT's market cap, or one national FTTH network. What's that burning smell?" Alternatively, you may just wish to friend me - I already consider my mega-uber value readers to be friends I haven't met, so why don't we formalize things?

So, on to the industry/market:

Data centers - You have to love data centers, well I do anyway. The unsung heroes of the web services revolution, they work away in quiet anonymity and throw off disgusting amounts of cash if run properly - and we don't have nearly enough of them. We tried like hell to get a Greater London project funded while at Merrill Lynch, but timing and the parlous state of the firm's balance sheet thwarted us, sadly. Judging from Telecity's statement from yesterday, our investment case still stands.

Ride that high yield bubble - Virgin Media, which is a company I have a lot of time for, despite my frequent mocking posts about open street cabinets, continues to demonstrate that continuity issues in the CFO's office need not be an impediment to sound financial management. Following last week's acceptance of its senior facilities amendment, the company is wasting no time in lining up refinancing options for the lower parts of the capital structure, which is exactly what it should be doing given the opportunity which the market's thirst for yield has created. What looked to be a very steep mountain to climb at the start of the year, has been handled masterfully in my view, and the second lien debt, which is something we loved at the beginning of the year at 50, is now quoted 93.5. I don't often think of congratulating company treasurers, but here's to a job well done.

Greek consolidation - This is a topic we did an awful lot of work on at Merrill Lynch, and the ongoing WIND Hellas saga has been very much on our mind since the beginning of the year. Now a "wild card" bid has reportedly emerged from what most would regard as an unlikely source. However, I have previously worked closely with some of the people involved behind the scenes here, so I, for one, am not surprised, and I think things are going to get very interesting from here.

Waving from afar

2009-11-02T17:33:00.002Z

Folks, a very altruistic Palladium Class mega-uber value reader has commented on my previous post to let us know that he has a surfeit of Google Wave invites, and that if you ping him and ask nicely, he'll pass them on to you. Thanks Peter!

Calling all Bulgarians!

2009-11-02T16:08:00.002Z

If you're Bulgarian and have any views on broadband, my friend and fibrous co-conspirator Benoit Felten needs your help in completing a survey for the good of the country, so get yourself over to the site and take part, faster than you can say Ivo Papazov.

Waving goodbye

2009-11-02T13:22:00.002Z

Okay good people, I have two major problems. Firstly, a number of people have posted requests with no email address. Google Wave makes you more productive, apparently, but not psychic. Secondly, and more importantly, something seems to have gone terribly wrong. Wave crashed earlier and prompted me to refresh, and when I did my remaining invites were gone. I had dished out five and still had three left. I've retained the details of those requests I wasn't able to honor, and if I get more invites, or my remaining ones are restored, your requests will be honored. For those I was able to fulfill, be advised that it may take some time, as it seems there are some scaling issues.

Waving, not drowning

2009-11-02T10:35:00.003Z

Still trying to recover from the eComm experience and catch up on other things, so drowning is not far from the truth, but meanwhile, I have eight [8] Googlewave invitations for first-comers.

My slides from eComm

2009-10-28T10:27:00.002Z

Scribd doesn't maintain the animations, so you may prefer to download it here.

Like I said a few hours ago...

2009-10-21T21:55:00.002+01:00

Data centers are the new steel mills, and every bit as hot. Just a few minutes ago, Equinix announced the acquisition of Switch & Data, at what I work out to be around 10x LTM EBITDA (10.5x if you use numbers up to Q2, and 9.5x using my Q3 guesstimate). I'm sure this is dramatic news for S&D shareholders, but it's really pretty unsurprising if you've been watching what's been happening in the space over the past three years or so, as I have. This is just the opening salvo in what I expect will be a new phase of consolidation, and I would expect European assets to be pretty high on the agenda.

I'm too sexy for my picks and shovels

2009-10-21T13:09:00.002+01:00

An adviser to Goldilocks has apparently been channeling the spirit of Horatio Alger, Jr., and unsurprisingly receiving some unsympathetic coverage in the process. Still, for good or evil, inequality is an inescapable fact of life, particularly in business. So setting aside investment banks, which other brazen, rapacious industry is shamelessly enjoying demand for its product outstripping supply three-to-one, with pricing up 15% this year, in the midst of the deepest recession in living memory? All hail the humble data center.

Don't shrug at ATLAS 2009

2009-10-21T11:16:00.003+01:00

Thanks to @kerryritz for the pointer on this very interesting presentation on the ATLAS Internet Observatory 2009 findings from the NANOG conference. The most interesting findings from my point of view are: 1) the rapid concentration of content sources (only 150 ASNs account for 50% of internet traffic, with CDNs accounting for 10% and Google alone for 6%); and, 2) the apparent decline of P2P in favor of streaming and direct download, although I find it notable that the authors point out that data is distorted by random port selection and the fact that 40% of P2P is encrypted.

Call for input

2009-10-20T13:55:00.002+01:00

I'm in the process of putting together my slides for eComm next week in Amsterdam, and I wanted to ask for your input, gentle reader. If you would be so kind as to send me the three most critical issues which the communications (notice I did not say telecom) industry faces in future, I would be very interested to see them. By critical issues, I mean opportunities and/or challenges, both endogenous and exogenous. I'm just curious to see how your ideas line up against my own.

Cognitive Dissonance

2009-10-15T12:00:00.001+01:00

Is it just me, or are the terms "2016 maturity" and "terrestrial broadcaster" not mutually exclusive?

Christmas come early

2009-10-12T17:05:00.003+01:00

I have two tickets to eComm Amsterdam, 28 - 30 October, up for grabs. One is *F*R*E*E* and the other entitles you to a 50% discount. First come, first served, but please only ask if you are absolutely sure you are actually going to go. Holler at me.

UPDATE: Well, that didn't take long. The free ticket is now gone, which leaves the 50% discount ticket. Don't be shy.

That was the week that was

2009-10-11T13:03:00.002+01:00

I think I may have confused or annoyed a number of mega-uber value readers with my post on the arrival of the Memphibian blog. Make no mistake, it is not supplanting this humble bloglet, but during the first couple of weeks I had to ensure I had seeded enough content there to give it a life of its own. As in everything, I will strive for balance going forward.

So, among the things I noted but failed to comment on last week, here are the ones I found most interesting:

The Skype and European Directories (a MacQuarie LBO) tie-up looks interesting, and I would expect some of the other directories players to follow suit, if they know what's good for them (the jury is out on that one). However, for me the bigger message in this deal is of how the previous owners of both assets squandered their potential. In the case of Skype, it's ironic that only as the business is sold by eBay does it begin to fulfill some of the potential used as rationale for doing the transaction four years ago. And on the directories side, this deal shows the obvious potential of tying together customer data, advertising, and sponsored telephony - something the telcos didn't seem to contemplate when they owned these directory assets. Now whatever value might be generated with this formula once again accrues to someone else...

A couple of big validations for fiber in the week, with BT capitulating on brownfield FTTP, probably in recognition of the threat posed by Virgin's DOCSIS 3.0 marketing, and Telefonica trumping Vivendi's one-month old bid for Global Village Telecom at a 14% premium, with in-market synergies that Vivendi can't get anywhere near.

The profound and ridiculous ends of the iPhone App spectrum were on display on Friday, with Herman pointing us towards the ludicrous (but entertaining) Gym Babes app, while the HealthMap project's iPhone app has generated 1,000 reports since launch a month ago. As the project team says, "This form of participatory epidemiology may alert the public to valuable disease information before it is reported by the media or public health officials," which is bound to have an inestimable value. All this is fascinating, though if Gartner is right in predicting that Android will eclipse the iPhone juggernaut by 2012 due to its open-source framework and multi-vendor backing, then presumably app developers are going to have to start hedging by developing for both platforms. This despite the fact that I am told repeatedly that investors currently have no time or appetite for anything non-iPhone in nature, and Kleiner Perkins Caulfield have taken a highly directional bet on iPhone hegemony.

From the "Yeah, whatever" department

2009-10-10T16:51:00.002+01:00

I think one of the first rules of marketing is that merely repeating an assertion ad nauseum doesn't make it true, particularly if the direct experience of your existing users shows it to be false. Yahoo! seems to be doing its best to pull the outdoor advertising marketing out of its deep recession with this campaign splashed all over London. Meanwhile, I have a colleague who uses Yahoo! mail, and for the past two months, he would say that the internet has been under the control of a Diabolical Denial of Service attack. I don't know if this is an isolated problem, or relates to his being a Mac user (as if that should really make any difference), but seeing his suffering, I am now programmed to ignore or laugh at billboards like this. Also, in case no one at Yahoo! corporate had clocked it, hooded figures like this in the UK are associated with muggings and other pointless acts of antisocial behavior, so my guess is that drivers passing this billboard will immediately assume it is yet another government fear appeal message and pay no attention.

Your lucky day

2009-10-09T14:59:00.000+01:00

One of my colleagues received this message today, which, apart from being risibly written and fundamentally ludicrous, points out just how mainstream Skype has become, if 419 scammers are invoking its name, particularly alongside that of Microsoft.

Date: Fri, 9 Oct 2009 19:03:24 +0800
> Subject: Congratulations!! *You Have Won 850,000.00 GBP
> From: dzplum@yahoo.com
>
>
>
>
>
> World Annual Skype/ Microsoft Internet Users Award
> 102, Denton Manchester Lancashire M34 3GE
> Annual Random Charity International
> United Kingdom
>
> Dear, Lucky Winners
>
> We happily announce to you the draw of 2009 World Annual Skype/ Microsoft
> Internet Users Award International Program held annually, in United
> Kingdom. Your e-mail address attached to ticket number: 500-744-3465-A42
> with serial number: 652-112 and draw lucky number: 7202013-05 which
> subsequently won you lottery in the 1st category of files number:
> FA1345U-ID.
>
> Batch Number.0152k Reference Number.02-QH-05 you have therefore been
> approved to claim a total sum of 850,000.00GBP (Eight Hundred and Fifty
> Thousand, Great Britain Pound Sterlings) in Cheque,
>
> All participants in this lottery program were selected annual randomly
> through a computer ballot system, drawn from 100.000.000 individuals email
> addresses from all search engines. Your e-mail address was picked by the
> automated computer ballot system, which has been programmed for this
> random selection. This has eventually qualified you to won our lottery
> prize.
>
> This promotional program held annually, and was promoted and sponsored by,
> Microsoft Inc, and Skype Internet Companies to encourage the use of
> Internet globally together with enhancing improves the lives of citizenry.
> Please note that your lucky winning number falls within our Europe
> representative's booklet in United Kingdom , as indicated in your file
> number: FA1345U-ID. In view of this, your 850,000.00GBP Cheque have be
> released and forwarded to our United Kingdom regional headquarter in
> Manchester, you are hereby informed to contact Manchester on this
> information, for the immediate commence of your Cheque
>
> Mobile Number: +447024064610
> +447024087960
> E-Mail: worldannualskype@yahoo.com.hk
>
> Fill the following details below to enable the speedy evaluation and
> processing of your won prize. 1 Name, 2 Home address, 3 Telephone number,
> 4 Age and occupation, 5 Ticket number, 6 Serial numbers, 7 File number, 8
> Draw number
>
> For security purposes and clarity we advice that you keep your winning
> information confidential, and not to be disclosed to anyone until your
> claim have been fully processed and your winning Cheque delivered to you.
> BE WARNED!
>
> National Coordinator
> Skype/ Microsoft
> Mr Amoosa Amoosa
>

Benign neglect

2009-10-07T16:32:00.002+01:00

It's quite probable that this will be of absolutely no interest to the vast majority of my mega-uber value readers out there, but on the off-chance that you are curious as to where I've been recently, I've been working on a purely personal side project, partly because it makes me happy, and partly because I feel I need to. It doesn't help that the past couple of weeks in telecom have left me feeling distinctly uninspired - is it just me?

Questions to ponder over lunch

2009-09-24T12:59:00.002+01:00

Is Huawei the Countrywide of vendor finance?

How can a perfect digital copy be considered a "forgery"?

Doesn't "360" also mean turning around to find yourself exactly where you started?

Pimp my panel

2009-09-23T16:13:00.003+01:00

Folks, eComm Europe is coming up fast, October 28 - 30 in Amsterdam, and you'll hate yourself if you miss it. I honestly think the speaker list is unparalleled anywhere, and the format ensures a rich flow of sharp and challenging talks on a wide range of topics of critical interest to those of us linked in the communications value chain. So look into my eyes, look deep into my eyes, and now go and register. I will be giving a talk on day one, and also moderating a panel on day two. The panel format is still being tweaked, but I have submitted the following summary, and I'd be interested to hear your feedback and input in the interest of making it as representative as possible:

Investing in the Telecom Value Chain for a Post-Meltdown World

The world has been through huge financial stress in the past two years, and despite the repeated sightings of "green shoots" by the more optimistic factions on Wall Street, many respected forecasters predict even more dire developments to come: the death of the dollar as a reserve currency, persistent high unemployment and social displacement, drastic cuts in public sector spending, runaway inflation, social unrest, the death of capitalism. While many of these outcomes represent worst case scenarios, we must accept that the "recovery," whenever it arrives, is not going to be a "reversion to business as usual," as the term is commonly defined. Consumers will behave differently and have different definitions of value, businesses will transact differently, entire industries will emerge smaller if indeed they survive at all. Add to this the increasing pressures of urbanization, migration, aging society, and climate change, and the picture becomes even more challenging. What influence will the telecom value chain exert in this new world? What opportunities do the challenges of The New Normal offer investors, and how should they position themselves?

Supersize my toast

2009-09-16T18:21:00.004+01:00

I've seen a lot of stuff recently that I don't understand, but if we needed any evidence that this credit market rally may be getting a bit silly, I think I may have found a compelling shred. A couple of days ago, Blockbuster announced an offering of "up to" $340m in senior secured notes, but LCDNews has just reported that this offering has been up-sized to an unfathomable $675m. Most of the deals I've come across recently have been up-sized, but not doubled. The coupon may be huge, I don't know yet, but what else could make this so compelling that demand could lead to a supersizing like this, especially with incineration such a strong possibility?

Lunchtime drive-by, 16 September

2009-09-16T11:48:00.002+01:00

Europe is grindingly dull today compared with events elsewhere:

Australia - Life gets more interesting with each passing day for Telstra and its shareholders, as it deals with both the implications of structural separation and yet another catastrophic network outage.

New Zealand - The government tells Telecom and Vodafone to take a flying leap with their proposals, in favor of a highly-localized procurement process for open-access fiber.

Taiwan - Taiwan Mobile buys MSO Kbro for 10.0x LTM EBITDA, a great exit for Carlyle into a much more interesting asset. Surely a company with ubiquitous mobile coverage will also desire a more extensive fixed footprint, particularly if it is only 1.2x levered and can afford to do more - i.e., further consolidation seems inevitable.

Adobe/Omniture - I think I understand what is happening here, or at least I understand the rhetoric around it, but Hank Williams' recent post highlights failings which make me wonder just how well the company will engage with the more demanding customer base it will carry as a result of this deal.

Head-scratching time

2009-09-15T13:39:00.003+01:00

Whatever its shortcomings as an industry, one can always count on telecom to deliver unusual and inexplicable M&A activity. Down in Greece, ON Telecoms and Vivodi, two companies I studied in great detail once upon a time in a previous incarnation, have decided to get together, in a somewhat unusual deal. Having presumably already burned a lot of cash on their own company, I'm puzzled as to why the vendors would pony-up for the entire capital increase required to get the deal done, especially when the Greek regulator seems to be giving incumbent OTE more room for maneuver on marketing of bundles. Perhaps there's some trade-off in terms of footprint complementarity, but I would be amazed if that could account for the valuation implied by the deal, EUR250m, i.e., the same as Forthnet's market cap, though Forthnet has more subscribers and also a monopoly position in satellite pay-TV.

UPDATE: Okay, I think I was probably a bit too kind here. I think this is about saving face on both sides. Greece is a pretty unique market, in that one can capture c.85% of ITC spend in just two conurbations - Attica (Athens and environs), and Thessaloniki. There's not much scope for regional niche market approaches, it's pretty much head-to-head in the big two urban centers, and there are already four big players (OTE, Forthnet, Hellas Online, and Wind Hellas) present, which history suggests is typically about the number a single market can viably support. Yes, I know that ON has Fastweb's "secret sauce" to a certain extent, but I'm not convinced that makes much difference against a more nimble OTE, Hellas Online in league with Vodafone, Forthnet, and (eventually) a restructured Wind Hellas. The latter two I do think would make an interesting asset combined, but I don't think this particular deal really moves the needle for anyone.

Battling latency and packet loss

2009-09-11T12:39:00.002+01:00

Many years ago, I worked with a German fellow, whose name happened to be Herman, which unfortunately led to him frequently being referred to as "Herman the German," of course mainly when he was out of earshot. Anyway, Herman was a very bright guy, and possessed very good English, though he seemed to be somewhat lacking when it came to colloquial language, so he had a tendency to substitute business language in everyday situations. For example, instead of saying that someone was chatting up a woman in a bar, he would say something along the lines of, "He's performing due diligence on a possible joint venture." Maybe it was just his peculiar sense of humor.

Anyway, it can't have escaped your attention, dear reader, that I have been remiss in posting of late, and I will borrow from Herman's argot to explain that several critical functional areas of my life have been undergoing fundamental restructuring in recent weeks, inflicting high levels of packet loss and latency on my neural network. My NOC has now resolved the problem, and normal service should resume shortly. In the meantime, please enjoy this, perhaps the funniest telco story in recent history, unless of course you are a Telkom S.A. employee...

I'm too sexy for my product

2009-08-19T13:20:00.004+01:00

Yesterday I was emailed out of the blue by someone from an agency working with Virgin Media on its "Powerful Stuff" campaign, and asking for feedback on the commercial embedded below. I personally think that with reviews it always pays to be careful what you wish for. As a piece of creative it's fine - nicely shot, etc., but it's an elaborately staged yet unimaginative pun (50 Megs, get it? Get it?). Cute, but pointless, and it does nothing to convey the sort of message this company should be telling regarding its competitive strengths.

Despite telcos' repeated attempts to make it something other than an enabling utility, ultimately broadband should be as sexy and thrilling as electricity, water or a tin of Ronseal. The benchmark of success is that it is available and reliable when people need it, and hopefully reasonably priced yet profitable as a business. You turn it on, and it works. And that's certainly something customers should be thankful for, but not excited about. It's a pretty sad comment on broadband development to date that, much like the British rail transport system, people express excitement on the rare occasion when it actually works as intended.

Null points!