Forex

Forex #1

2011-09-08T13:47:00.000-07:00

Posted on September 6, 2011 by admin

Forex. Euro s-a depreciat a treia zi consecutiv fata de dolarul american, pe fondul speculatiilor ca Grecia are indoieli cu privire la asistenta UE si FMI pentru refinanta datoriile. Euro a pierdut teren in fata yenului, dupa ce piata in piata aparut zvonul ca Grecia ar putea incerca sa evite implicarea FMI, din cauza conditiilor aspre impuse tarii. Oficial, aceasta informatie nu a fost confirmata.

“Temerile fata de Grecia au revenit in piata”, a declarat Dean Poplevell, un analist de la Oanda Corp

Grecia a fost conditionata de FMI cu luarea unor masuri dure in schimbul ajutorului financiar, iar oficialii greci le-au caracterizat ca fiind destul de “rigide” si se tem ca respectarea acestor conditii poate provoca un val de nemultumire in randul maselor.

De la inceputul anului, euro a scăzut cu 5,7% fata de yen si 6,6% fata de dolar, pe baza speculatiilor ca Grecia nu va fi capabila sa faca fata deficitului bugetar, care este de 4 ori mai mare decat limitele admise de UE. In acest an Grecia are nevoie de 32 miliarde de euro (43 miliarde dolari).

Lira sterlina a scazut cu 1,1% fata de dolar la aparitia unor noi stiri despre situatia politica din Marea Britanie.

Marti, dolarul canadian a ajuns la paritatea 1:1 fata de dolarul american, fapt datorat pretului petrolului, care continua sa se mentina la maximile ultimilor 17 luni. De la inceput anului, dolarul canadian a crescut cu 5,4% fata de dolarul american, in acelas timp, cresterea pretului petrolului a fost de 9,5%.

Dolarul australian, de asemenea, a crescut marti, dupa ce Banca Centrala a majorat rata dobanzii de referinta la 4,25% (a 5-a crestere in ultimele 6 sedinte).

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FOREX. GBPUSD

FOREX. USDJPY

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged dolarul, forex, grecia | Leave a comment

Forex #2

2011-09-08T13:46:00.001-07:00

Posted on September 6, 2011 by admin

Euro se tranzactioneaza aproape de minimile ulimilor doua saptamani fata de dolar pe fondul speculatiilor ca Grecia ar putea intara in insolvabilitate. Valuta si-a recuperat din pierderi dupa ce Ministrul de Finante a spus ca deficitul bugetar la 1 trimestru a scazut cu 40%, iar Presedintele BCE, Trichet, a spus ca Grecia nu este amenintata de faliment.

Intre timp yenul s-a consolidat fata de majoritatea valutelor pe fondul scaderilor pe pietele de actiuni si preturilor la petrol, care a diminuat cererea pentru monedele cu dobanda mai mare. Miercuri, Banca Centrala a Japoniei a decis sa pastreze rata dobanzii de referinta la un nivel scazut – 0,1%, in acelas timp, banca centrala nu a schimbat perspectivele economice.

“Problemele Greciei duc la o scadere a apetitului pentru risc, acest fatp ofera sprijin yenului”, a spus Jessica Hoversen, analist la MF Global. Stiri despre reducerea deficitului bugetar au imbunatatit usor situatia din Grecia, dar nu a risipit temerile.”

Euro este supraevaluat si va continua sa scada “, a declarat Adam Cole, seful strategiei valutare la Royal Bank of Canada. “Economic si riscurile politice sunt strans legate si cresterea ratei dobanzii de referinta in Europa este amanata pentru o perioada nedeterminata.”

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USD/JPY

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged forex, grecia, rata dobanzii de referinta | Leave a comment

Forex #3

2011-09-08T13:45:00.000-07:00

Posted on September 6, 2011 by admin

Yenul, scade a doua zi in raport cu euro pe fondul aparitiilor semnalelor de imbunatatire a economiei globale. Informatia precum Grecia nu va intra in faliment a subminat cererea de yeni ca moneda de refugiu. Yenul a cedat din pozitiile sale in raport cu 16 valute majore dupa ce exporturile din Germania au crescut la valorile maxime din ultimile 8 luni, iar indicele preturilor la producatori in Marea Britanie a atins maximul ultimilor 2 ani.

“Economiile din intreaga lume sunt in stadiul de recupere destul de increzator”, a declarat Joch Nihey, managerul traderilor de la Tokai Tokyo Securities Co “Asta duce la o creste a apetitul fata de risc si pune presiune asupra yenului.

EURUSD

GBP/USD

USD/JPY

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Forex #4

2011-09-08T13:44:00.000-07:00

Posted on September 8, 2011 by admin

In sesiunea de tranzactionare Europeana, EURO a primit un sprijin substantial, dupa ce liderii UE au convenit cu privire la acordarea de asistenta financiara Greciei, care va ajuta tara sa evite falimentul si va reduce probabilitatea deprecierii valutei în viitor.

Ministrii de finante din UE au convenit sambata sa aloce pana la 30 de miliarde € (41 miliarde dolari) Greciei pentru urmatorii 3 ani. Probabil ca si FMI ar putea oferi o perioadă suplimentara de 15 miliarde €

“Suma pe care UE este gata sa o ofere Greciei, a fost mai mare decat se astepta”, a declarat Ray Farris de la Credit Suisse. “Nu este surprinzator, ca stirea a provocat inchiderea pozitiilor short pe euro si cursul de schimb a crescut foarte mult.

Intre timp, la primele ore, euro pierde 5% fata de dolar.

Luni, dolarul australian, a crescut la cel mai mare nivel din ultimile 5 luni, dupa anuntarea stirilor referitoare la Grecia, dar apoi investitorii si-au concentrat atentia asupra statisticilor slabe. Rapoartele publicate au aratat ca împrumuturile pentru achizitionarea de locuinte din Australia au scazut luna 5-a consecutiv: -1,8% fata de -1%, cat a fost prognozat

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NO QE3: What are the Implications for the Dollar?

2011-06-27T10:38:00.001-07:00

The verdict is nearly in; there will be no QE3. The second round of quantitative easing (“QE2”) will expire at the end of this month, and while it will not be unwound for quite some time, the Fed has indicated that it will not be followed by yet another round. The question on the minds of forex traders, of course, is what does this mean for the Dollar?

In his most recent press conference, Ben Bernanke, himself, indicated that QE3 was unlikely. According to a survey conducted by Bloomberg News, the majority of FX analysts (65%) believe him. Simply, the circumstances don’t support further easing. To be sure, the unemployment rate remains high, and the economy is teetering on the verge of double-dip recession. However, the last two rounds did little to address either of these problems, and companies have hoarded cash rather than investing in new plant and workers.
Interest rates are still hovering around record lows, and there isn’t anything to be gained from trying to lower them further. Besides, given that inflation is now above 3% – due to an explosion in good and energy prices – QE3 would simply be too risky. Economist Ken Goldstein summarized the situation as follows: “We will come to the end of QE2 and largely we mark about how little happened when it ended and that’s also an argument about why there may not be persuasive argument to do a QE3.”
On the other hand, there are some analysts who think that QE3 is inevitable (29%). PIMCO’s Bill Gross, manager of the world’s biggest bond fund, recently indicated that, “Next Jackson Hole in August will likely hint at QE3/interest rate caps.” (Personally, I think that he’s probably just bitter that his forecast of a decline in Treasury Bond prices hasn’t materialized). One columnist wrote that the Fed’s arm will be twisted by the ongoing collapse of the housing market, while others have argued that the recent decline in the S&P 500 will spur the Fed into action. Most of us, however, believe that the Fed will adopt a wait-and-see approach before ultimately conceding that more easing is necessary.

For now at least, then, the prevailing assumption is that there will not be a QE3. As for how forex markets have digested this news, they have taken it in stride. The Dollar is now holding its value, and as I wrote in a previous post, it may even have bottomed out. Of course, it doesn’t hurt that the Euro is being punished by another flare-up in the sovereign debt crisis and investors are getting nervous about bubbles in emerging market currencies, all of which provide support for the dollar.
The fact that QE2 will soon end without having triggered financial apocalypse or hyperinflation – as some cassandras initially predicted – is something that is worth nothing. Of course, the proceeds of QE1 and QE2 will be recycled indefinitely into the markets, and forex investors can’t completely put quantitative easing behind them. Still, that there won’t be any more additional cash injected into commodities markets and emerging economy asset markets means that one of the main sources of downward pressure on the dollar has been eliminated.
Ironically, it is possible that the unveiling of QE3 could actually cause the dollar to rally. The reason is that there is still a tremendous amount of uncertainty in the markets, which provides the dollar with some safe haven demand. If the Fed were to concede that all is not well on the economic front and respond by more money printing, it could drive some safe haven flows into the US, even to the extent that it would overwhelm outflows driven by concerns over inflation.
Personally, I think the dollar will continue to hold its value, and perhaps even appreciate slightly in the near-term, as forex markets dither over the way forward.

Source: www.forexblog.org

Euro Nears Breaking Point

2011-06-26T10:18:00.000-07:00

It’s deja vu all over again in the forex markets as another twist in the sovereign debt crisis has sent the euro tumbling by the greatest margin in nearly a year. It was only last month that I posted “The Euro (Still) has a Greek Problem,” and yet, forex markets are once again reacting to the possibility of a Greek default as thought it were a new development. At the very least, investors finally seem to be acknowledging the inevitable.
There have been several factors at work in this latest episode. On Monday, S&P downgraded its credit rating for Greece to CCC, following on a similar move by Moody’s. That means that Greece’s sovereign credit rating is now the lowest in the world, behind such eminent economies as Grenada and Ecuador. While the move was hardly noteworthy in itself, it represents one more straw on the camel’s back.

Greece’s government is increasingly unstable, and Prime Minister George Papandreou has become so desperate that he has suggested forming an alliance with Greece’s most powerful opposition party. Meanwhile, violent riots outside Greek Parliament have reportedly become a daily occurrence, as the Greek populace has proven unwilling to accept wage cuts and tax increases.
As if that weren’t enough, there is tremendous uncertainty surrounding the next stage of the Greek bailout. No one can agree on what amount to give and what should be stipulated in return. Some parties think that private investors should be involved in the bailout by taking a “haircut” on the bonds that they own. Some members of the eurozone are balking about contributing any funds at all, wary of justifying it to their own citizens and that it is merely forestalling the inevitable.
I think the NYTimes offered the best summary: “Funding fatigue is growing in the north European creditor countries, especially Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and Austria, just as austerity fatigue is mounting in Greece.” When you consider that Greek interest rates and credit default swap spreads have surged to record highs, it seems that default is really inevitable. If the IMF and European Union are so determined, they can push off default until 2013. Still, default now or default then is still default.
At this point, then, the only real question is what happens when Greece defaults. Will it be forced to leave the Eurozone? Will that push the rest of the Eurozone fringe closer towards default? Will the Euro collapse and cease to exist as a currency? What will happen then?
Unfortunately, I think the answer to all of these questions is yes. At the very least, Greece will be forced out of the eurozone. Bondholders will push interest rates in Ireland, Spain, and Portugal up to double-digit levels, trapping them in the same cycle in which Greece is currently ensnared. Given the exposure of French and German banks to the sovereign debt of financially troubled eurozone members, they will also require state bailouts, and so on.
In a recent op-ed published in The Financial Times, celebrity economies Nouriel Roubini argued that the only way to avoid a complete eurozone meltdown is if the euro depreciates rapidly “to restore competitiveness to the periphery” or if the European Union is able to rapidly achieve complete fiscal and economic union. Roubini argues that the former is difficult because of the ECB’s hawkishness, while the latter is precluded by political hurdles that remain too formidable to overcome.
As Greece inches ever closer to default, the markets will increasingly become gripped by utter uncertainty over the questions that I posed above. Central Banks will stop accumulating euro-denominated assets, and investment funds will similarly shun Europe. (In fact, there is already evidence that this is happening). While European interest rates are attractive relative to the rest of the G4, they are hardly enough to compensate investors for this uncertainty. And when the markets come to terms with this, the euro might finally reach its breaking point.

Source: www.forexblog.org

Asian Currencies Poised to Rise, but for Wrong Reasons

2011-06-26T10:14:00.001-07:00

All things considered, Asian currencies have had an okay 2010 (and there’s still another month to go). After a modest first half, they started to rise in unison in June, and several are poised to finish the year 10% higher than where they began. While the last few weeks have seen a slight pullback, there is cause for cautious optimism in 2011.

At this point, I think the rise in Asian currencies has become somewhat self-fulfilling. Basically, investors expect Asian currencies to rise, and the consequent anticipatory capital inflows cause them to actually rise, thereby reinforcing investor sentiment. For example, the co-head of emerging markets for Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO) is “investing in local currency debt and foreign exchange contracts in Asia on the basis that…emerging market currencies are bound to rise for…fundamental reasons.” Upon being asked to elaborate on such fundamentals, he answered lamely that, “One big driver for emerging markets in coming years will come from investors’ relatively low allocations to these fast-growing regions.”
When pressed for actual reasons, investors can glibly rattle off such strengths as high growth and low debt and wax bullish about the emerging market ‘story,’ but ultimately they are chasing yield, asset appreciation, and strengthening exchange rates. It doesn’t matter that P/E ratios for (Asian) emerging market stocks are significantly higher than in industrialized economies, or that bond prices are destined to decline as soon as (Asian) emerging market Central Banks begin lifting interest rates, or that Purchase Power Parity (PPP) already suggests that some of these currencies are already fairly valued. In a nutshell, they continue to pour money into Asia because that’s what everyone else seems to be doing.
Personally, I think that kind of mentality should inspire caution in even the most bullish of investors. It suggests that if bubbles haven’t already formed in emerging markets, they probably will soon, since there’s no way that GDP growth will be large enough to absorb the continuous inflow of capital. According to the Financial Times, “Data suggest that emerging market mutual funds, including those invested in Asian markets, have received about 10 per cent of their assets in additional flows over the past four to five months.” Meanwhile, a not-insignificant portion of the $600 Billion Fed QE2 program could find its way into Asia, exacerbating this trend.

In addition, emerging markets in general, and Asia in particular, have always been vulnerable to sudden capital outflow caused by flareups in risk aversion. For example, Asian currencies as a whole (see the US Dollar Asian Currency Index chart above) have declined 2% in the month of November alone, due to interest rate hikes in China and a re-emergence of the EU sovereign debt crisis. The former sparked fears of a worldwide economic slowdown, while the latter precipitated a decline in risk appetite.
As a bona fide fundamental analyst, it pains me to say that emerging market Asian currencies can expect some (modest) appreciation over the next year, barring any serious changes to the EU fiscal and global economic situations. It seems that capital will continue to pour into Asia, which – rather than fundamentals – will continue to dictate performance.

Source: www.forexblog.org