QQQQ Morning Update

Finished with a slight gain

noreply@blogger.com (OptionSmart.com) — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 21:52:33 PDT

Apple and Google helped the Nasdaq to outperform. Chevron's profit warning drags on blue chips ahead of an onslaught of quarterly reports. Investors want to see revenue growth and tangible evidence of improvement. Market breadth was mixed. On the Nasdaq, advancers narrowly topped decliners. QQQQ's implied volatility slipped further indicating bullish sentiment. The technical chart continued to form a short-term bottom.

Struggled higher

noreply@blogger.com (OptionSmart.com) — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 23:30:06 PDT

Stocks posted slim gains amid choppy trading that followed Alcoa's earnings announcement, disappointing retail sales data, and a mixed jobless claims report. Semiconductor stocks showed strength and added 2%. Broadcom was a primary leader in the Semiconductor Index. Investors remain on the defensive, staying in cash and waiting for concrete evidence that the economy is starting to turn around. Market breadth was positive. On the Nasdaq, advancers narrowly topped decliners. QQQQ's implied volatility inched lower as large traders maintain bullish sentiment. The technical chart can be considered a bullish pattern in the short-term.

Staged late-day turnaround

noreply@blogger.com (OptionSmart.com) — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 22:44:17 PDT

The market erased most of its losses by the close, as investors set aside concerns about the economy to gear up for the quarterly reporting period. After the close, Dow component Alcoa beat expectations and jumped 5%. It shows that expectations are reasonably low, like they were in the first quarter, so it won't be hard for companies to meet or exceed forecasts. The tech sector was led by Google which is preparing to launch a personal computer operating system that will contend with products from Microsoft. Amazon upgraded. The market is poised to bottom out the short-term.

Plunged on recession fears

noreply@blogger.com (OptionSmart.com) — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 22:02:33 PDT

The afternoon sell-off was generally an extension of the market's recent weakness, which became more recognizable following last week's disappointing jobs report. Large-cap tech issues weighed on the Nasdaq for the second straight session. Semiconductors failed to provide support and shed 3% instead. Their decline came despite analyst upgrades for shares of Intel. Investors are grasping the fact that the recovery, when it does come, may not be as robust as what many hope for. Market players will be looking to see not only that companies beat forecasts, but that they provide an encouraging outlook for future quarters.

Erased bigger losses

noreply@blogger.com (OptionSmart.com) — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 22:37:12 PDT

Worries about the duration of the recession were tempered by a rally in select blue chips. Money moved out of the volatile commodity area and into more defensive areas like consumer staples. Weakness among tech issues is causing the tech-rich Nasdaq to underperform its counterparts. Specifically, Microsoft, Apple, etc. The daily technical chart formed a bullish candlestick. QQQQ's inched higher but remained below the 27 mark. Investors are in 'show me' mode.

Plunged on disappointing jobs data

noreply@blogger.com (OptionSmart.com) — Sun, 05 Jul 2009 21:50:21 PDT

A disappointing jobs report prompted sellers to knock stocks sharply lower in the first few minutes of trading. This session's decline gave stocks their third straight weekly loss. Market breadth was negative and volume was light with large traders checking out early for the holiday. Stocks are likely to drift throughout this week and start to turn up later this month as companies start to report quarterly earnings and show the signs of a recovery investors have been hoping for.

Lacking a catalyst

noreply@blogger.com (OptionSmart.com) — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 23:28:54 PDT

The tech sector quickly climbed higher in the early going, but gradually pared their gains throughout afternoon trading. Though gains remained broad-based, the needs a catalyst to move higher. However, reports on manufacturing and housing added to bets that the pace of the recession is slowing. Investors just want to see gradual improvement, that things are getting better. The June employment report, due out before the opening bell today, is the week's biggest economic news. On the Nasdaq, advancers topped decliners two to one. Implied volatility remains on a very low level.

Still gatherning momentum

noreply@blogger.com (OptionSmart.com) — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 22:37:18 PDT

Due to some disappointing consumer confidence the second quarter's final trading session concluded with broad-based losses. The market needs a catalyst to move higher. QQQQ's implied volatility slipped to 52-week low level. The technical chart looks bullish in the near-term.

Gatherning Momentum

noreply@blogger.com (OptionSmart.com) — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 00:45:15 PDT

Tech stocks had showed relative strength in the early going, but also lagged the broader market into the close. Apple was an early leader in the group, but surrendered its gains despite news that chief executive Steve Jobs will return to work at Apple after being on medical leave. Relative weakness in other large-cap tech stocks caused the Nasdaq to underperform its counterparts. Microsoft has made gains after analysts at Deutsche Bank raised their target for the stock. Stocks are likely to be volatile this week due to the confluence of the holiday, the heavy spate of economic news and the quarter end. Stocks could benefit from some end-of-quarter machinations as market pros look to "window dress" their portfolios before closing the books.

Managed to post slim gains

noreply@blogger.com (OptionSmart.com) — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 22:16:39 PDT

Bets that the economy is closer to stabilizing gave some fuel, but a mixed batch of recent reports has caused worries that the market has gotten ahead of any recovery. The University of Michigan showed consumer sentiment rose to 70.8 in June from an earlier reading of 68.7. Economists thought it would increase to 69. The technical pattern remains bullish in the short-term. On the Nasdaq, advancers topped decliners two to one on volume of 3.65 billion shares. QQQQ's implied volatility dropped very low.

Bounced back

noreply@blogger.com (OptionSmart.com) — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 22:28:49 PDT

The market found momentum after a week of choppy trading. Large traders are stepping in. Microsoft was among the primary leaders in the tech sector. The software giant outlined its revenue recognition for its new Windows program. Microsoft said that for the Q4 2009 it will defer an estimated $200 million to $300 million of revenue. Market breadth was positive. QQQQ's implied volatility inched lower as traders dumped put options.

Fared well

noreply@blogger.com (OptionSmart.com) — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 00:34:34 PDT

The tech sector jumped on Oracle's better-than-expected fourth quarter results and upside first quarter earnings guidance. Large-cap tech stock, including Apple, Intel and Cisco, led the sector higher. The market lost steam after the Federal Reserve kept a key short-term interest rate near zero, but said nothing about expanding a program meant to keep long-term rates from spiking. The stronger-than-expected durable goods orders report and Oracle's quarterly results could continue to benefit stocks over the next few days. Thursday brings the release of the weekly jobless claims report. The market looks for a reason to bottom out in the short-term. QQQQ's implied volatility inched lower as large traders bet on an upswing.

Looked for direction

noreply@blogger.com (OptionSmart.com) — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 22:37:35 PDT

The market remained in a "wait-and-see" mode. Home sales fell short of forecasts. The Federal Reserve began its two-day policy meeting with an announcement expected today afternoon. Oracle topped forecasts despite weak sales and profits. The stock rose 3% after hours. However, the market needs more catalysts to bottom out in the near-term.

Plunged on news from the World Bank

noreply@blogger.com (OptionSmart.com) — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 23:24:35 PDT

Declining issues outnumbered advancers by 10-to-1 in the S&P 500.One sector that had otuperformed yesterday was telecom services, with modest gains in large cap names such as Verizon and AT&T. Apple said it sold more than 1 million copies of its new iPhone 3GS in the first three days it was on sale, in what was being described as the most successful launch of a smartphone ever. On the Nasdaq, decliners topped advancers by more than five to one. QQQQ's implied volatility rose as large traders accumulated put options to hedge their portfolios. However, this rise wasn't dramatic.

Gaining bullish momentum

noreply@blogger.com (Trendocracy.com) — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 22:51:31 PDT

Friday's trading was under the influence of the quadruple options expiration. This week we'll see where we are. Large traders now believe that things are less bad than before with the economy and earnings prospects, but the lack of action suggests investors are waiting for headlines to drive the market. Looking ahead to next week, there are a few notable earnings releases, including Oracle (ORCL) on Tuesday (6/23). There will also be some important economic releases, including Existing Home Sales on Tuesday, Durable Goods Orders on Wednesday and the Final reading for Q1 GDP on Thursday (6/25). Apple was expected to sell as many as 500,000 new iPhones this weekend. QQQQ's implied volatility plunged as large trader dumped put options and bet on an upswing.

Little changed

noreply@blogger.com (OptionSmart.com) — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 23:31:14 PDT

Trading was being influenced by quadruple options expiration. BlackBerry maker Research in Motion is poised to slide this morning. After the close, the company reported higher quarterly earnings that topped estimates and higher quarterly revenue that missed estimates. Its sales forecast disappointed investors and the shares slumped 5% in after-hours trading. QQQQ's implied volatility remains low. Investors want to lock in some gains.

Formed a bottom

noreply@blogger.com (OptionSmart.com) — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 23:17:17 PDT

Stocks zigzagged through the session as investors considered the corporate news, President Obama's plan for an overhaul of financial market regulation and a tame reading on consumer inflation. In fact, the economic numbers have mostly been in line with or not as bad as expected, and that thу bullish trend looks like it should continue, despite a few recent readings that were fairly mixed. The tech sector is bound to get a boost as the quarter winds down over the next two weeks, with large traders wanting to put money to work before closing the books. Market breadth was mixed but volume picked up after several sessions of light trading. QQQQ's implied volatility inched lower.

Extended losses on profit-taking

noreply@blogger.com (OptionSmart.com) — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 22:29:36 PDT

Declining commodities prices pushed the stock market down. The weakness came despite better-than-expected first quarter earnings and an in-line outlook from Best Buy. There were several economic items out, but none of them had much of a strong influence on trading. After the close Tuesday, Adobe Systems said second-quarter sales and earnings dropped from a year ago. However, the software maker's sales topped estimates and earnings met estimates.Market breadth was negative. On the Nasdaq, decliners topped advancers by more than two to one.

Slumped on recession fears

noreply@blogger.com (OptionSmart.com) — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 22:10:41 PDT

The selling effort was most intense against materials stocks, which dropped 3.5%. Commodities and basic materials stocks were pressured by an increase in the dollar. 95% of the S&P 500 companies finished with a loss. In the same time, Microsoft managed to close with a 0.1% gain. AMD was down after having its target price raised. Yahoo also slipped after upgrade. Market breadth was negative and trading volume was moderate. QQQQ's implied volatility inched higher to the 29 level. We expect more volatility later this week.

Bullish sentiment still prevails

noreply@blogger.com (OptionSmart.com) — Sun, 14 Jun 2009 19:59:54 PDT

Semiconductor stocks fell under pressure after disappointing earnings report from National Semiconductor. Weakness among semiconductors dragged the tech sector down. For the week, the Dow and S&P 500 ended with modest gains, while the Nasdaq ended lower. Nevertheless, QQQQ's implied volatility fell to 26.7. This fact clearly indicates that large traders don't buy put options in significant volumes to hedge their portfolios. Besides, institutional buyers step in right before the closing bell to buy stocks at lower prices. Bullish sentiment still prevails.

Broad-based gains remain

noreply@blogger.com (OptionSmart.com) — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 20:30:22 PDT

Despite the weak close, stocks were still able to log solid, broad-based gains. Economic data had little impact on trading this session. QCOM raised its fiscal third quarter revenue and operating income guidance based on stronger-than-expected demand for the company's chipsets. The trend remains upward. The runup has been liquidity driven, with investors not wanting to miss the boat, even after three months of gains. However, the pace of the advance has been slowing lately and that's bound to continue. The immediate concern over the next few weeks is the rise in interest rates. The tech sector needs a catalyst to extend rally.

Pared losses into the close

noreply@blogger.com (OptionSmart.com) — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 23:11:28 PDT

Investors concern that rising oil prices and higher borrowing costs associated with rising Treasury yields could limit any recovery effort. Intel shrugged off negative coments and managed to erase intra-day losses. Large traders kick in buy programs at around 3:15 each day, with money getting put to work on down days.It is a bullish sign.

Rallied on strength in semiconductors

noreply@blogger.com (OptionSmart.com) — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 23:00:23 PDT

Semiconductor stocks were able to finish markedly higher. Their upward move came after Texas Instruments raised its second quarter forecast. That announcement came just one week after the chief executive from Applied Materials made pessimistic comments about the semiconductor industry. Market breadth was positive. On the Nasdaq, advancers topped decliners eight to five. Today's afternoon brings a report on the May treasury budget and also the Federal Reserve's "Beige Book" reading on economic activity. The technical chart looks buliish in the near-term.

Managed to trim intra-day losses

noreply@blogger.com (OptionSmart.com) — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 22:15:24 PDT

The late-session turnaround was positive, but deceptive. Some optimism about the bank sector helped to counter worries about inflation. Apple introduced a faster version of its iPhone, lowered the price on its existing phone and offered details on its revamped operating system. However, this news failed to ignite the tech sector and the Apple stock fell 0.5%. The market needs serious reasons to move higher. In the same time, implied volatility remains low and doesn't signal bearish sentiment.

Mixed after jobs report

noreply@blogger.com (OptionSmart.com) — Sun, 07 Jun 2009 02:43:17 PDT

The initial lift took the market to fresh highs, but listless trading left stocks to fluctuaate in a relatively narrow range for the rest of the session.Semiconductor stocks also showed weakness after the Semiconductor Association forecast a 21% year-over-year decline in 2009 worldwide sales. That caused Intel to trade lower and weigh on the Nasdaq Composite. Apple plans to introduce a lower-cost version of its iPhone as soon as Monday.