NIFTY

Hanging Man in Nifty?

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Fri, 12 Jul 2013 10:51:00 +0000

On a daily candle of Nifty, it looks like a Hanging man. However a follow up confirmation is necessary to confirm this. If this is confirmed then we have made a short term top and the next leg of bearishness in Nifty will emerge. If it is confirmed then we we may observe more violent moves ahead.
Hanging man will get invalidated when the price moves past the high of the hanging man candle. In such a case this may imply that it was a runaway gap.

Confirmation :

The next bar opens under hanging man's real body. The more the price gap between the hanging man's real body and the next bar open price, the more probability that hanging man will form the high.
Close price of the next bar's black candle is under the hanging man's close price

More details about Hanging man can be viewed from here.

Nifty Elliott Wave Analysis for 22-11-2012

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Thu, 22 Nov 2012 03:25:00 +0000

Nifty seems to have completed the 4th wave and started with the 5th wave up. This is with the assumption that the 5th of the wave c down was a truncated one and has exceeded the previous wave 3 of the c by only 1 point. If that is a turned out to be false and it was a flat correction then we will get resisted at around 5635 range which is the channel line drawn in blue color in the hourly chart and the next leg down should unfold in impulse fashion to complete the 5th of c. The chances of this are less as RSI is already in oversold region and gave +ve divergence in hourly chart. Also in daily chart RSI has reached over sold region and reversed. This makes us believe that this could be a possible reversal and in that case it is the beginning of the 5th up.

Let us watch the retracement of the pause from 5635-5650 range. It should get support near 5590-5610 range.

Nifty Heikin Ashi cnadle charts for 17-10-2012

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Wed, 17 Oct 2012 03:22:00 +0000

Daily chart:

Hourly chart:

Nifty Elliott Wave analysis for 17-10-2012

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Wed, 17 Oct 2012 03:21:00 +0000

Nifty Seems to have lost steam and turned down swiftly in the afternoon. Currently we can see multiple probabilities at work.
1. Nifty has not reached the equality target of the wave b (a=c) but turned down instead. This could be that the wave b up was turning out to be a flat correction and yesterday's move at or beyond 5637 was the wave b of b. Which means another wave up is required to complete this wave b. We can observe this up move - if this turns out to be an impulse which targets 5635.65+ (84x0.618 = 51.912) = 5687.562 or a=c which will take it to near 5719.25.
2. Current down move is the wave c and has completed wave 1, 3 and now a retracement in wave 4 to be in play. This may go up to 5683.00
3. Retracement of the basic fall from 5815 up to 5747 @ 61.8%

Interesting thing to note is yesterday's fall looks like took support at the double bottom!
Nifty Daily chart:

Nifty Hourly chart:

Nifty 5 min chart:

Nifty hourly chart with 9,14 RSI & 35 D:

Nifty hourly chart with ATR:

Gold in $ - Elliott Wave analysis for 16-10-2012

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 16 Oct 2012 03:32:00 +0000

Gold in $ terms seems to be in a rare type - expanding triangle in the wave 4. So far it looks like it has completed wave a,b,c,d. Currently wave e is in progress. This may terminate before meeting the trend line connecting wave a & c, which typically happens in an expanding triangle. However current move seems to have some more steam left in int and it may go up to $1700 or so.

Nifty Heikin Ashi candle charts for 16-10-2012

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 16 Oct 2012 03:26:00 +0000

Daily chart:

Hourly chart:

Nifty Elliott Wave analysis for 16-10-2012

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 16 Oct 2012 03:23:00 +0000

Nifty seems to have completed the wave b of wave b little late yesterday. Further up move is not as dramatic as expected. It is taking longer than expected time to complete. Ideally the complete correction move this bigger wave b should have got over yesterday but is extendig. Which means it is trying to get the RSI readings into the overbought area (or at least little higher) just to turn down swiftly. This indicates that wave c may not reach its fullest extent and may reverse at around 0.618 of wave a (5637 - 5720.6 = 83.6) 5653.10+ 51.66 = 5704.76 or at the maximum 5653.10 + 83.60 = 5736.7

We need to be very careful and watch the strength in the current up move and be ready with the plan to jump in at the sign of weakness.

Nifty Daily chart:

Nifty hourly chart:

Nifty 5 min chart:

Hourly chart with 9,14 RSI & 35 D:

Nifty hourly chart with ATR:

Nifty Elliott Wave analysis for 15-10-2012

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 15 Oct 2012 03:13:00 +0000

Market seems to have done with the wave a of the this correction. Also spent conisderable amount of time completing the wave b as a flat (running flat?). The 5 wave decline seems to be completed on Friday's close and the upward move to complete wave c has begun. This may go up to 5751 which is the fibo target of 61.8% for a reasonable wave b. Further to which market may go down dramatically to complete ~178 points of (5751-178 = 5573) range. This may help the market to complete wave iv or wave d of the large up move to complete the wave C.
Nifty Daily Elliott Wave analysis:

Nifty Hourly Elliott Wave analysis:

Nifty 5 min Elliott Wave analysis:

Nifty hourly chart with 9,14 RSI, 35 D:

Nifty Elliott Wave analysis for 11-10-2012

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Thu, 11 Oct 2012 03:26:00 +0000

Nifty high made at 5815 seems to be an ending diagonal which will be observed either in wave 5 or as part of wave c. In our case this can be considered as wave c. Currently nifty is in the correction mode and last three days movement looks like a leading diagonal which has the sub waves 5-3-5-3-5. This could be wave a of the a-b-c correction. Or this could be wave 1 of a bigger fall. As on yesterday evening it appears like it has completed the wave and next movement will be a retracement of this fall. This may typically go up near 5751 which is 61.8% range of this fall.

Nifty Daily Elliott wave labeling:

Nifty hourly Elliott wave labeling:

Nifty 5 min Elliott wave labeling:

Nifty hourly chart with 6, 14 RSI & 35 D:
RSI has reached oversold region but has not given a buy signal yet. Today market may open gap up. If this gap up is anything around 50-60 points then that may complete the wave a of this correction move. We have to wait for a pullback again to re-enter (if not already entered this up move). Given the time taken for the current move down which is approximately 5 days, this a-b-c correction may take nearly 2-3 days to complete. Further the down move may be violent.

USRINR Elliott wave analysis for 09-10-2012

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 09 Oct 2012 03:09:00 +0000

Gold Elliott Wave analysis for 09-10-2012

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 09 Oct 2012 03:08:00 +0000

INVITATION: Watch live world-wide webcast of David Keller Seminar 6th October 2012

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Fri, 05 Oct 2012 11:53:00 +0000

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Nifty Heikin Ashi candle chart for 05-10-2012

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Fri, 05 Oct 2012 03:29:00 +0000

Daily chart:
Strength - open and staying above: 5749.90
Weakness - open and moving below: 5749.90

Hourly chart:
Strength - open and staying above: 5788.10
Weakness - open and moving below: 5788.10

Nifty Elliott wave analysis for 05-10-2012

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Fri, 05 Oct 2012 03:26:00 +0000

Nifty very beautifully jumped up yesterday and spent rest of the day consolidating in minute sub wave iv of (iii) of v of III. Possibility is today it may go up again in wave v of (iii) to near 5850 range. Yesterday's sub wave iv was flat and the 5 wave decline in wave c was complete in 5 min chart.

Nifty daily chart with Elliott wave label:

Nifty hourly chart with Elliott wave label:

Nifty 5 min chart with Elliott wave label:

Nifty hourly chart with 9,14 RSI & 35 D:

Nifty Heikin Ashi candle chart for 04-10-2012

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Thu, 04 Oct 2012 03:34:00 +0000

Daily cahrt:
Daily open and stay above - 5713.24 for bullishness
Moving below - 5713.24 indicate weakness in the market.

Hourly chart:
Hourly strength is open and staying above - 5729.03
Weakness will come in with the move below - 5729.03

Nifty Elliott Wave analysis for 04-10-2012

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Thu, 04 Oct 2012 03:29:00 +0000

Market do not seem to be stopping or reversing but crouching up.
Rethinking about the wave label. It may be possible that the sub wave 5 of the current wave 3 (c) may be extending and is subdividing in itself. With that possibility, daily chart is re-labeled. This may take the market to near 5900 level as well.

Daily chart:

hourly chart:

hourly chart with 9,14 RSI - 35 D:

Hourly chart with ATR:

Nifty Heikin Ashi candle chart for 03-10-2012

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Wed, 03 Oct 2012 03:14:00 +0000

Daily chart:
If the market opens and moves below 5697 then the candle may turn red indicating weakness in the market. Even if the market opens above this point, it has to remain above this for the candle to remain hollow.

Hourly chart:
If the market opens and remains above 5715.85 then the hourly candles may remain hollow indicating the strength in the market. If it moves below, it will indicate the weakness.

Nifty Elliott Wave analysis for 03-10-2012

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Wed, 03 Oct 2012 03:09:00 +0000

Nifty seems to have entered the wave C of the flat correction in wave 4 of wave C up. Monday's move appear like the wave 1 & wave 2 sub waves of wave C. Since we are counting this wave 4 as a flat, which means the wave a and wave b both are having three sub waves a-b-c and the current wave c is expected to subdivide into 5 sub waves. This may go up to c=a or c=1.618x a. Let us wait and watch. There is another posibility that this may be less than a as well. At a minimum this has to go at least 0.618 x a. Wave a was 5719.60 to 5638.90 = 80.70. So c will be a minimum of 49.87 (5735.05 - 49.87) = 5685.17, c=a => 5654.35, c=1.618x a = (-130.5726) = 5604.47

Daily chart:

Daily chart with 9 RSI :

Hourly chart:

Hourly chart with 9,14 RSI & 35 D:

5 min chart with Elliott wave labeling:

Nifty Elliott Wave analysis for 28-09-2012

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Fri, 28 Sep 2012 03:57:00 +0000

Nifty almost made a double bottom (5638.90 & 5640) yesterday, as seen in hourly chart.

Nifty also appears to have completed the 4th wave with this as a double zig-zag. Now market can move up to complete the wave 5 of wave 3 of wave c.
Daily chart:

Hourly chart:

As usual - our study of ATR vs. market is shown in the below chart. We can see that ATR crossed its trigger line and moved up yesterday.

Nifty Hekin Ashi candle chart for 27-09-2012

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Thu, 27 Sep 2012 03:30:00 +0000

Daily chart:

hourly chart:

Nifty Elliott wave analysis for 27-09-2012

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Thu, 27 Sep 2012 03:28:00 +0000

Nifty was range bound for the entire day yesterday. It seems to have got support near the developing 5 Day EMA around 5636 - 5645 range. It has also given a positive divergence in the 9 RSI in hourly chart. Only concerning factor in the daily chart the 9 RSI has crossed below the trigger line. If the market turns up violently then this will again cross over above the trigger line. Another interesting factor to observe is, this being the counter trend move, the 14 RSI (hourly chart) has rebounded from 40 range. (actually near 35)

This can be treated as completion of wave 4 of wave 3 of wave C.
Now this gives hope for the the wave 5 of the 3 of C upwards near the 5750 range.

Nifty Daily chart with Elliott Wave labeling:

Hourly chart:

Nifty 9 RSI and 35 D on hourly chart:

As a continuation of my study on ATR co-relation to Nifty movement, I have attached the last chart with 7 point ATR and the trigger line. Yesterday it has almost kissed the trigger line. In fact it has done that twice in the current correction phase.

USDINR Elliott Wave analysis for 26-09-2012

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Wed, 26 Sep 2012 08:56:00 +0000

USDINR pair seems to have completed a correction at yesterday's low near 53.3056. Now it might start a journey up. This could be either wave b of wave 2 or it is the beginning of another impulsive move up. In either case it may retrace a minimum of 61.8% of the recent fall. If this is the 3rd wave, then it will be more violent and will travel a large distance in s very short span of time.

The correction a-b-c had an impulse in wave a. A beautiful triangle in wave b. Another impulse in wave c. This most likely confirms that the current correction is over.

Nifty Elliott Wave analysis for 26-09-2012

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Wed, 26 Sep 2012 05:17:00 +0000

Nifty continued the correction and confined to below 5700. So I have reworked the entire correction phase starting from 5719. The labels are updated in the hourly chart. We maybe still in the correection which might take us to near 5600 range before promising any meaningful bounce. So far it has completed wave a and wave b of the wave iv. Wave c should take it to re-test the channel bottom.

Daily chart:

Hourly chart:

Another interesting observation that I had was plotting the 7 day ATR and a trend 9 day moving average of it as trend line against the hourly nifty. I had observed that whenever the trend line cross over happens, market moves in a direction. This is just a study and posted it for observation. Need to review this for a larger set of data and backtest it.

Gold Elliott wave analysis for 25-09-2012

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 25 Sep 2012 04:44:00 +0000

Gold seems to have one set of a-b-c correction at the low of yesterday around 31320. This could be wave a or wave 4. We are yet to determine that. It seems to have started a move up. This could be the next leg of the impulse of is part of the wave b. We should observe the strength and nature of this up move to confirm.

Gold Daily chart :

Gold hourly chart:

Nifty opening update 25-09-2012

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 25 Sep 2012 04:30:00 +0000

Nifty opened high and touched nearly 5700. The current formation is well fitting into the contracting triangle of Elliott Wave. This has the lower channel line support near 5660 area. If market bounce from here then we can assume that the wave 5 of wave 3 of wave C up has started. This should break 5680-90 upper channel line decisively.