Ken Chapman

FINDING OUR WAY IN UNCHARTED TIMES

noreply@blogger.com (kenchapman) — Mon, 04 Nov 2024 02:06:00 +0000

FINDING OUR WAY IN UNCHARTED TIMES

A sextant was an indispensable navigation tool in the early days of European ocean-going discovery.

Unlike Heisenberg's Theory of Uncertainty, a sextant could tell you where you are and where you're going. Are you on or off course, and what must you do to make necessary changes and corrections?

But you needed an irrefutable constant to determine where you are. For those using a sextant, that constant was the North Star.

As you navigate through your citizenship journey as a Rebooter or an independent citizen and voter, do you have your personal North Star? What facts or articles of faith do you use as your known and reliable constants? Have you considered and calculated what is happening in your life-experiencing reality? Do you know where you are as an Albertan? Are you clear on how you got to your current reality? And are your clear about what you want in your future and how to find your way forward?

Alberta is entering into uncharted waters caused by events and issues beyond our control. Pandemics, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Energy Transition, Economic Recession, and so many more changes are coming at us as Albertans.

TIME TO EXERCISE PERRSONAL AGENCY

There are still many things we can still do personally and in groups to respond actively and positively to these macro-dynamics, and to make the changes we want to actually happen. We do have personal agency and can take control of some aspects of our political culture up to, during and after this critical election.

The question for us then is will we take back Control? Will we set out on an Alternative course from the failing of the past? Will we be wise enough to Delete the harmful actions and assumptions of the past? Will we explore and Reboot ourselves and our province to co-create a Better Alberta?

Elections are prime times to define new directions and get moving into new future-fit destinations. Are you getting ready, as a citizen, to take effective election-time action to make the changes you want to see in public policy, government programs and political processes? Do you accept that an informed citizenship and purposeful voting is a personal duty in a Free and Democratic Society?

A BETTER ALBERTA NEEDS BETTER VOTERS AND CITIZENS.

We will not get a better Alberta until we become Better Citizens and, in the process, become Better Voters. Are you willing to do what you can to become a Better Voter this election and beyond? That means investing your time to decide what is important to you and your family in these uncertain times for Alberta. It means taking the time to step up and raise your awareness of what's happening, and improving the quality of your information on issues and events.

Then are you able to invest and donate into the democratic process? You donate to a local candidate, a political party, or even an interest group whothat is active in pressing for change in a policy area.

Remember, democracy is influenced and run by those who show up.

Reviewing Reboot Alberta

noreply@blogger.com (kenchapman) — Mon, 07 Oct 2024 09:42:00 +0000

Control Alternatives and Deletes

WHAT KIND OF VOTER WILL YOU BE IN MAY?

noreply@blogger.com (kenchapman) — Fri, 17 Mar 2023 17:28:00 +0000

We are all starting to come to grips with the importance of the May Alberta election. According to polls, it is very difficult to say now if the UCP or the NDP will get re-elected.

That result is in our hands as citizens. The collective "WE" will decide but will the results be conclusive given the regional divisions in Alberta, and the final decision will be determined by a few Calgary constituencies.

BUT VOTE WE MUST - IF YOU VALUE DEMOCRACY

That voting decision making is a very personal activity and fraught with complexity and confusion and it takes time and effort to do it well.

However, for others, like dedicated partisans, the voting decision is simple, stick with your Tribe because winning is power and getting power for your side is the purpose of elections.

For many of us, "we have issues." By that I mean we will be doing more analysis as we consider our ballot choices.

Some will be considering HOW to vote which usually means a "strategic vote" where the motivation is to vote against the party or leaders perceived to be the most dangerous if given power. Cynics call this the least worst decision process.

Others will vote based on WHO to vote for. This is mostly determined by personal perceptions of the Leaders. Given how centralized political power is in parties and caucuses, on the leader, that is an important consideration too.

Some other WHO voters will decide based on the local candidates and their connection to the constituency and local issues. That is often no more than a decision based on name recognition. Hardly a sound way to select a lawmaker, but a very common practice by so-called slacktivist citizens.

WHAT ABOUT THE REST OF US?

And then there are the rest of us. We are the WHAT voters. We are issues-based voters. Sometimes our voting motivation is focused on a single issue, or a group of related policy issues like healthcare, economy, education, or the environment.

We are the more nuanced and complex voters. We are too difficult for political parties and election platform advisors to connect with in the typical simplistic mass-messaging campaigning methods. However some of us WHAT voters are unwittingly on party lists. That is because we answered an online survey, gave out email and postal code in order to download something of interest, or were part of some other email harvesting techniques.

As a result, there are political parties that have information on you and a sense of what is important to us. Modern technology enables the parties to micro-target us with relevant, and they hope, resonant key messages from their election platforms. If that is you, expect emails and requests for donations.

UNDECIDED CITIZENS GET IGNORED

There is not much point, in a four week election campaign, for political parties to try and get the undecided and indifferent citizens keen on doing the duty and showing up to voter. The election No-Shows are usually the largest group of citizens at election time. A sad indictment of the robustness of our democracy and our personal failings as citizens.

Then there are the WHAT voters who are motivated to cast their votes based on specific issue concerns. They too are largely overlooked and ignored by the political parties at election time. And that is because the are seen mostly as a time-sucking, complicating, nuisance, especially by local candidates.

ELECTIONS ARE ABOUT OVER-SIMPLIFIED MESSAGES

Issues-based WHAT voters usually want to deal with matters fraught with complexities. There is some wisdom in the observations made many years ago by former Prime Minister Kim Campbell when she observed that elections are not the time to deal with complex issues.

She was ridiculed for this comment but time has proven her to be insightful as well as inciteful. So if we want our issues dealt with in the campaign, we WHAT voters must do the outreach and bring our issues and concerns to the attention of the parties in the campaign.

Don’t be discouraged by the candidates quick handshake as they stare past you at someone more important to them, or at a staffer that they want to come over and rescue them from you. Stand your ground, make your point, and follow up with an email to reinforce your message.

Quite frankly, do not expect to have much impact in changing anything during an election campaign. The platforms are set and the party discipline will not allow any candidate to get off message. You will get a canned campaign response, if you get anything at all.

But that inadequate response doesn't mean you should not still be putting your issues and concerns in front of your local candidates. DO NOT WASTE YOUR TIME CONNECTING WITH THE PARTY OR THE LEADERS. CONCENTRATE ON LOCAL CANDIDATES. One of them will be elected and that is when you can reach out again. you can be more effective in getting attention on your issues after the election. Best use the election time to figure out and focus on your issues and concerns.

WHY CITIZENSHIP MATTERS

Citizenship Matters is a citizenship based initiative that is more about the post-election outreach not the election the campaigning time. That is when the WHAT voters really need to get to go to work and set out to have impact and influence on the newly elected government.

As a friend of mine has sardonically observed “no matter who you vote for the government always gets in.” The point is, in a democracy, it is still a government by the people, unless of course the people fail or neglect to keep it that way through effectively engaged activated citizenship.

IF NOT THIS; THEN WHAT?

noreply@blogger.com (kenchapman) — Tue, 14 Mar 2023 04:13:00 +0000

Are you tired of the overheated right versus left, political rhetoric? Are you weary of the partisan blame game? Are you concerned about the rise of misinformation and disinformation spreading throughout our society?

Are you worried about political polarisation that is dividing us and leaving a trail of debris in our economy, our environment, ourselves and many of our fellow citizens?

Do you have a nagging, or even gut-wrenching, feeling that there are people and groups who are committed to separating Alberta from Canada and intent on replacing our democracy with an autocracy? As a citizen of Alberta, are you unsatisfied with the direction of our province?

If so, we must ask ourselves, IF NOT THIS, THEN WHAT? This is the core political question for Albertans in these volatile, uncertain, complex times. This question is especially significant given the fundamental and consequential choices we will be making as voters in this election.

ELECTIONS ARE GOOD TIMES TO PRESS FOR CHANGE

An election is a serious time for Albertans to take up our roles and responsibilities by becoming engaged and participating citizens. It is time for those of us with the capacity, skills, and talents to apply ourselves, to show up, speak up, stand up and even act up with a renewed sense of civic purpose. It is time to use our energy, capabilities, skills and many talents to exert the power of our citizenship and press for the changes we want to see.

While this core question provides a framework to uncover and consider the problems, it does little to provide us with any doable solutions. That takes a personal commitment to the work of participatory citizenship.

The work is the go-forward mission for those of us ready, willing and able to move into the next stage of Reboot Alberta. We, those of us who are able, will assist the majority of like-minded individuals to become more engaged in purposeful and political activities.

The stakes are high. Our democracy is in danger. We must become effectively engaged politically if we are to protect, promote, preserve and improve our democracy. We must use the power of citizenship to defeat ideological extremists, at both ends of the political spectrum. We must expose and depose the authoritarian tyrants in our midst who are trying to take control of our province and weaken our democratic institutions.

THE INVITATION

It is time for some of us in the Reboot Alberta Group, to take our political participation to a different level. It’s time to transition from passive Likes and Retweet levels of involvement. We must move into an engaged, active, and purposeful community approach that is committed to conceiving and co-creating a better Alberta.

That better Alberta is more economically viable, socially just, environmentally responsible, and politically representative.

THE SHIFT

The Reboot Alberta Facebook Group has been a place for politically moderate and conscientious citizens. We are citizens who want to help raise awareness, share ideas and information on public policy issues, government programs, policy and even politics. As a result, we have been able to get more clarity about where we are these days as a province where volatility, uncertainty and ambiguity is “normal.”

There is broad consensus amongst us, given our answer to what is wrong with the direction Alberta is heading. We are well aware of the current deficiencies in so much of being in Alberta. When we ask ourselves, If not THIS, then WHAT?We can all make a list of the “THIS” things in present day Alberta that we need to change.

CITIZENS MAKING CHANGE IS NOT NEW

This focus on what needs to be changed is not new. Albertans have, as pluralist people, been focused for a number of years on the “IF NOT” aspect of the question. Ever since the Klein days many of us, as citizens not partisans, have been actively seeking better political leadership. We did this by rejecting various ideologically insufficient alternatives we were offered by the long reigning, now defunct, Progressive Conservative Party.

For example, over the years, many non-partisan citizens bought Progressive Conservative party memberships to participate in the selection of the party leaders. That’s an example of the activated and engaged individual citizenship action we are speaking about as Rebooters.

What emerged was an act of engaged citizenship because individuals realised that the change of leadership of a party in power, was also selecting the next Premier of Alberta. More recently, many independent citizens realised that the UCP leadership outcome was too serious a matter to leave to the party members alone. So they purchased UCP memberships, if only to have a say in who would become the next Premier of Alberta.

NOW WHAT? IT’S TIME TO GET SERIOUS

The “What” is the uncertainty in our core question. This part of the question is especially important at this election time given our divided and polarised political reality. The What part of the question is personal to We the Citizens as voters. It is where your choices, based on your concerns, will have consequences for all of us. What issues, policy, perceptions will drive and determine the choices of Albertans as we collectively decide how to mark our ballot? Such choices must be made soon because we have a deadline. Election day is May 29th. This is now IMPORTANT AND URGENT.

ACTION PLAN

The What part of the question, in the emerging more engaged Reboot Community, will not be focused very much on helping you decide how to mark your ballot. We will be citizens who are preparing for a more effective engaged active personal citizenship in the post-election period. We will be organising for taking more direct action approaches to more effective personal and collectively engaged citizens pressing for change through political, but not just partisan, means.

We will consider the choices, changes, and alternatives for Alberta and Albertans, that we can influence that are actually within our control. We will focus on solutions that we can design and deploy through democratic processes. After the election will take a longer term future-forward view of issues and seek solutions that go beyond the ballot box focus of the current election cycle.

We will also consider the external pressures we will have imposed on us, by geopolitical and other forces. We will accept that we can’t control those external forces but we will press for changes where we can and must move to mitigate and learn to adapt to the external consequences and impacts.

CITIZENSHIP MATTERS

The next phase of Reboot Alberta will not be for everyone. The Reboot Alberta Facebook Group will continue to raise awareness and share reliable and relatable information. But there will be another community based platform for those Reboot-minded citizens who want to expand their role and responsibility as a citizen into more direct political action.

We are not talking about marching and waving placards, or running around with our collective hair on fire as much as that is often fun. Nor are we about signing meaningless petitions or feeding rage machines by spreading misinformation.

This Citizenship Matter initiative will not be for everyone. We will be looking for people with a passion for Alberta, experienced in service to others, and the capacity to contribute time, talent and other resources. It will be for those citizens who want to be involved and who aspire to exert personal positive impact on those areas of concern and purpose towards co-creating a better next Alberta.

We are now searching out venues and will be convening gatherings around issues, policies, and programs. Specific working groups will design and deploy the work. Yes, there will be work. Democracy takes work. I promise it will be frustrating at times, but also satisfying when we see that we are making constructive and positive changes in how we are governed.

We will be looking at how to be effectively engaged and how to take direct action on those citizenship matters that drive the desires of the various community members. We are in fact calling this parallel community- inspired platform Citizenship Matters. Citizenship Matters because citizenship participation in political processes and decisions are the only way we have, as a society, to move away from the adversarial, divisive and polarised political culture we Albertans have fallen into.

Citizenship Matters are all those things about being Albertan that really matter to the majority of independent, critical-thinking citizens, who are not politically aligned but also not politically disengaged. They are curious and concerned about things that matter, considering what do we need and what do we want as Albertans for Albertans

The Citizenship Matters mindset will be to clearly understand a citizen’s chosen focus area and the problems they face, personally, in their community or provincially. We will be committed to solution finding through community leadership, acting as citizenship trustees of our democracy. We will not wait for the political establishment to act and then merely respond complacently or complicitly where and when it matters to our Citizenship.

We will use the power of our citizenship to look for solutions that work within the power levers of our democracy and our system of government. We will apply 21st century tools that include but go beyond the ballot box.

In the beginning we will be starting small, but that does not mean we will be going slowly nor without a defined purpose. We will look to some focus area we know something about, where we are in the issue, and where there is some clarity about what constitutes a preferred future.

JOIN US AND HELP DESIGN THE NEXT ALBERTA

Many of us have all but forgotten that public participation through political engagement is some of the most meaningful and impactful ways we can create much-needed change. Citizenship Matters will be a community approach to citizen engagement to help create change in what concerns you.

That change may be getting your disabled child the school support they need or finding safe and affordable long-term care for a frail parent. Do you have a community-based concern you want to see fixed like policing reform and public safety? Perhaps energy transition and climate change issues are some of your big issues. Of course there are always enormous challenges in our healthcare systems.

Too many of us are sitting on the political sidelines. Sometimes we feel overwhelmed by the range and complexity of the issues and challenges we are facing. Others feel powerless because they don’t understand how to leverage our democratic and civic systems. Many avoid political participation because they see it as vile, nasty and corrupt.

Citizenship Matters will help independent, critical-thinking, and passionate Albertans become more effective and active citizens. Are you ready, willing, and able to step up your efforts to seek solutions we need now and for future generations of Albertans? Join us. Whatever your passion, if you want to press for change using the power of your citizenship to design and define the next Alberta - Join Us.

WILL ISSUES DRIVE YOUR VOTE?

noreply@blogger.com (kenchapman) — Wed, 15 Feb 2023 23:30:00 +0000

In a previous post we challenged you to contemplate what worries you and what your public policy, government programs or democratic processes are on your mind . We provided a 4H Framework Tool to focus and guide you through that analytical process.

This decision making will come earlier for some and more challenging for others. What is keeping you up at night is usually more personal and family based. We don’t often see those life-challenges in political terms, but we can, and perhaps we should, depending of course on the nature of the problems.

Then there are the community-based concerns, What is happening in your networks of friends, work, and activities from leisure to working situations that is impacting the life of your and your family. These are often matters of local government, institutions, or community organizational dynamics. They could be matters of public safety, transportation, addiction, development, just to name a few.

Next we have the macro areas of concern that are at the provincial or federal government levels. These are usually the ones in the news media coverage and tend to dominate partisan political messaging.

WHAT ARE THE ISSUES?

According to a very recent Abacus Data survey, the top three policy issues on the minds of Albertans these days are:

#1 The Cost of Living (67%)

#2 Improving Health Care (50%)

#3 Managing the Alberta Economy (34%)

The next three top of mind issues are also interesting and cluster in the 21%-25% range of Albertans as most important. They are:

#4 Keeping Taxes as Low as Possible (25%)

#5 Affordability of Housing (24%)

#6 Standing up for Alberta with the Federal Government (21%)

ARE YOU AN ISSUES-BASED VOTER?

Of course these are provincial based political issues but they may be part of your personal and community-based level of concern as well. These issues are a good place to start to drill them down into a more granular and detailed consideration for you and your more specific concerns.

What is interesting in a political context for the coming election is which of the two legacy parties, the UCP and NDP, are “most trusted" to deal with the specific issues. This can give some insight on the power of these issues to influence the outcome of the May election.

For example, look at the issue of “Defending those working in the oil and gas sector.” This is all about the uncertainty of the global move to alternative sources of energy away from fossil fuels. The politics about the “Just Transition” for energy sector workers is also part of the issue.

The UCP, at 53% trust, has overwhelming trust to deal with this compared to the NDP at 20% trusting them to deal with the issues. Also, there are 23% of Albertans who are “Unsure” of whom to trust to manage this issue. That is a significant portion of the population.

However, this issue is significantly important to only 14% of those Albertans surveyed. So while the UCP is strong on this issue, it is not likely going to be determinative of the election outcome, if there is a good turnout of voters.

POLITICAL POWER IN ORGANIZED ISSUE-BASED VOTERS

Remember the world is run by those who show up. This is especially true at election time. What if this issue is a dominant vote driver for many who are feeling significantly impacted personally and in their communities, like oil and gas based rural Albertans. If they organize around this issue, drive support and their fellow citizens of like minds show up, while others who could care less and are carelessly irresponsible about showing up to vote, this issue could end up being influential on the election outcome.

On the other end of the issues spectrum is the Cost of Living, critically important to 67% of the survey respondents. This shows how close this election could be, because 37% trust the UCP and 26% trust the NDP, 22% are unsure while 5% pick a Third Party to trust.

In reality there is very little a provincial government can do about the cost of living. They can’t control inflation in housing, food or transportation, which are some of the major contributors to the rising cost of living. They can reduce taxes and user fees and subsidize vulnerable to partially shield them from the impacts.

But these are band-aids put on what are bullet wounds for many. And none of this pragmatic reality will stop the two major parties from trying to sway vulnerable voters with their ideological rhetoric, political propaganda and even spreading misinformation in the weeks now and up to the election.

WHO WILL YOU TRUST TO GOVERN ON YOUR ISSUES?

The chart of the Abacus Data analysis of the most important issues shows who is perceived as the “most trusted to deal” with each issue. This is an interesting issue prioritization, but also an indicator of the perceived strength of each party on each issue. The clear dichotomy between the economic issue of trustworthiness of the rightwing UCP vs the social trustworthiness of the leftwing NPD is not surprising. It shows where the fault line that divides our political culture.

There is utility in this information for the motivated majority of us who are independent, nonpartisan, critical thinking citizens. You likely fit into the Unsure category on some issues as you consider your personal what to vote for issues. You could just as well be leaning to the left or the right on other concerns. This information is not much help in deciding to vote based on party leadership or ideology, based on a for or against assessment call.

So remember, the world is run by those who show up and know what they want, and how to get it. That could be and should be you this election and afterwards.

ELECTIONS MATTER BECAUSE OF CHOICES AND CHANGES

noreply@blogger.com (kenchapman) — Sun, 22 Jan 2023 18:57:00 +0000

ELECTIONS ARE TIMES TO TAKE ACTION

We are rapidly approaching the May 29th Alberta General Election. Elections are those rare times when political power actually shifts from the elected to the electors. Citizens as electors, can actually make a difference up to and through the election period. This can only happen if we are focused, purposeful, politically aware, issue informed, effectively engaged and assertively activated.

Political leaders, party operatives, advisors and volunteers plus local candidates know that at election time, they have to pay serious attention to the issues, attitudes, needs and aspirations of We the Citizens. That is simply because they want and need our votes in order to win and keep or take power.

But there is real political power in our citizenship. Our power over the political system is always exercised through purposeful application of our personal agency. Our personal agency power is never more effective than in the time leading up to and on election day. But very few of us realize this, and if we do, we often do not take advantage of this power shift to citizens as electors.

COMMIT TO BECOME A BETTER VOTER

Elections are about change through individual choices. The world is run by those who show up and engage. Voting is the most obvious way we have to show up and exercise our personal political power. That means you have to be serious about the role and responsibility you have as a citizen.

Unfortunately, most of us do not show up, stand up, speak up, and act up to exercise the power of our citizenship. The chronically low voter turnout at election time proves this point. That can change if voters are motivated in a common cause.

In the 2015 Alberta election, voters were motivated to send the arrogant and entitled PC government a message. The result was a dramatic shift from over 40 years of rightwing government to a surprising election of a leftwing majority government.

In the 2019 election the percentage of voter turnout was the second highest in Alberta history. The incentive of the United Right, through the newly minted Kenney creation of the UCP, was to motivate others who lean Right to ensure the NDP did not get a second term to govern. They didn’t.

What will motivate us to turnout and vote in 2023? For sure many on the Left and Right will be voting “strategically” against the “Other” side. Beyond that, will voters become motivated to be more focused and aware of issues and personal concerns? Will the moderate majority of non-partisan Albertans be committed enough to vote affirmatively in what they see as a way forward to a better Alberta? Let’s hope so!

HOPE IS NOT A STRATEGY

Will we have to do more than hope better voting will happen this election! Are you ready, willing and where able, do the work of citizenship to help make the change you want to see in Alberta happen? The only change you can be assured will happen is the changing we do about ourselves.

Do you know what you can and will do to become a better voter? That requires that we personally commit to become better as citizens by actively participating in this election and in our political culture afterwards.

The change we are usually offered by political parties at election time is about leadership and promises made based on partisan ideology. The changes many citizens want are very personal and local. They are often specific concerns about public policy issues, individual anxieties, and aspirations about preferred futures.

Individual citizens often organize to collectively press for policy, program, and process changes in government. This common cause approach to impacting change at election time is how positive pro-social differences can be achieved. But this takes leadership and other organizational skills.

AN ACTION FRAMEWORK AT ELECTION TIME

So how can that hard work of thoughtfully and purposefully deciding your vote be done in a logical and methodical way? I think a framework based on Head, Heart, Hand, and Hope can help you determine what is important to you that will help you drive to a conclusion on how to mark your ballot.

WHAT ARE YOU WORRIED ABOUT?

What is in your HEAD? What is keeping you up at night? Are you worried about inflation, or recession and job security? Will healthcare be there should you or your family need it? This is obviously personal even though the issues are broadly public policy or program related. Ask yourself, what are you paying attention to and why?

HOW ARE YOU SEEING AND FEELING ABOUT YOUR WORRIES?

Where is your HEART? What are you feeling and believing about the matters that concern you? Do you feel your concerns are on the political agenda this election? If so, which leader, party or candidate is aligned with and focused on your concerns? Do they “get it?” Are your feelings driven by fear, uncertainty and doubt? Or are you feeling confident that your concerns and aspirations for change can influence the narrative, political agenda, and outcomes in this election?

WHAT ARE YOU DOING ABOUT YOUR CONCERNS?

Next is your HANDS? What are you actually doing to impact change this election year? Are you going to commit some of your time, talent, money and other resources to make your concerns known to those seeking your vote and your consent to be governed? Will you volunteer for a local candidate? Will you donate to a campaign? Will you speak to your friends, family and others in your orbits about your concerns and your efforts as a citizen and encourage them to participate too?

WHAT DOES A BETTER RESULT LOOK LIKE?

Finally and most importantly is what do you HOPE for as an engaged, politically active citizen? Have you determined your answer to the “then what” aspect of the fundamental question at election time? What exactly does better look like in your areas of concern? What do you want to see your government keep doing, stop doing and start doing in your policy, program and process concerns?

LET’S SHARE AND LEARN FROM EACH OTHER

Reboot Alberta will convene some online events for our community to share experiences and efforts to be the change they want to see as citizens using this framework. We will focus on the interest areas in Reboot like health, education, economy, social justice, environment and good government. We can share, learn and even collaborate in pressing for change in our political culture and how we are governed.

How will you let your views be known to the potential lawmakers who are seeking your support in this election? How will you make an effort to make a difference? More on how to do that is coming. Stay tuned, stay attuned and do not tune out! Our democracy is at risk. Use it or lose it.

Thoughts on an Alberta By-election

noreply@blogger.com (kenchapman) — Wed, 16 Mar 2022 19:31:00 +0000

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THOUGHTS ON A BY-ELECTION

There will be lots of chattering-class speculative and extrapolative commentary on the consequences for the UCP and Jason Kenney over the  Brian Jean victory in the Fort McMurray Lac La Biche By-election. Media and partisans will have a lots of click-bait  baises to feed.

WHERE ARE WE NOW?I see today as a new Baseline for Alberta to measure our progress in our economy and our society, and how we will now see ourselves al Albertans.

I see the byelection of Brian Jean as a trailhead and the starting place of another path for yet another Citizenship Journey.  With the Jean victory and the April 9 UCP Leadership Review Vote, I now have a sense of urgency about the political path we are now heading down.

This Citizenship Journey is upto and including the May 2023 General Election. I am reminded of the African Proverb: "If you want to go fast walk alone. If you what to go far, go with a group."

Regardless of your intent, fast or far, This Citizenship Journey will not be a walk in the park on a sunny day for us as persons nor us as the people we call Albertans.  The political processes and election outcome may well define and determine what it means to be an Albertan for the foreseeable future.  

INTO THE HEART OF DARKNESS?

I strongly believe the next year or so will be a march into the darkness of tribal political battles with the blessing of a robust, and at least for now, Democracy. The battle fields will polarized hyper-partisan inter-party UCP vs NDP ideological assaults and leaders personal punch-ups .  

Then there are the Far-Right interpersonal Kenney vs Jean clashes, regardless of the results of the April 9 UCP Leadership Review Vote.. That will aid and abet a UCP vs Wildrose Independence Party of Alberta - WIPA hostilities. that promises to be vicious and vile.

There will be lots and lots of skirmishes and conflicts. They will seen as crusades by the combatants over many different issues and concerns in many places and spaces. But in reality they will all be about the same thing,  achieving and allocating political power to impose a doctrine, a dogma and a Ruler, if you are battling from and for the Conservative Right.

The Political Ends of those Battles will be the Taking of Power. Those Ends will justify using whatever Means "necessary" for those who are fixated on the fight and singularly focused on winning at all costs.

Values like honesty, trust and integrity will become distorted battle cries. They will be touted as goals of being or becoming better for the benefit of everyone. There will be cliches paraded but they will be nothing more that reassuring charades to divert attention from the truth of what's really going on, the pursuit of power.

The real goal of these political battles will be an Ideological Victory for the winner and the Vanquishment of the enemy loser.

IF NOT THIS, THEN WHAT?
Where does that leave the nonpartisan, or should I say non-combatant, citizen?There are so many known unknowns, both immediate and emerging. There are the inevitable unknown unknowns as well. Volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity will be the New Normal for many.

We are not sure where this march into battle will lead us nor leave us. We are not sure about what will be obstructing our way as we each try to understand and adapt to new realities, many of which are beyond our control. 

We are not even very clear about what will be achieved at the end of this journey. What is the collective consensus about our preferred future? How can that be established on a battlefield?

Could we, in the heat of battles, strive to define, design, direct and decide that preferred destination given our polarized political culture? Can Influence be Powerful in the hearts, heads, and hands of Citizens devoted to Democracy?

FEARFUL UNCERTAIN AND DOUBTFUL?The time from now up to the next election are Days of Living Dangerously as an Albertan. As a citizen you have choices to make. Either step up, as a Citizens and,get engaged.  Or choose to be be passive, complacent, and compliant.  Take a seat at the political table.  If you don't then expect to be on the political menu.  

You can have an impact or be impacted. But don't be duped and mislead into Indifference. There is too much is at stake to unconcerned or disengaged.

What's Going on in Alberta?

noreply@blogger.com (kenchapman) — Sun, 06 Feb 2022 23:15:00 +0000

What's Going on in Alberta?

First a Disclaimer:

Angus Reid Institute does good work when it runs surveys. They are far from perfect because there is no assured randomization in the sampling as they use online panels for responses.

That said, their poll results are “true” for those who answered the survey. But be careful in extrapolating any poll result in Canada as representative of the hearts and minds of your fellow citizens.

That Said:

Angus Reid recently published a Three-Part morbidly fascinating poll of Canadian's attitudes about our politics and the state of citizen disengagement.

I’m going to focus on Part 2 “More Believe Electoral System is Weakening than Becoming Stronger.” The survey asked, “...whether as series of significant pillar of a strong democracy…were strengthening or weakening in this country.” Spoiler Alert! Albertans are far and away in the belief that the pillars of Canadian democracy are growing weaker.

When asked “Thinking about each (pillar) would you say they are growing stronger or getting weaker in Canada, the Weaker responses were reported, and here are the comparative numbers:

THE RULE OF LAW APPLIED EQUALLY TO EVERYONE.

The UCP has passed a plethora of anti-democratic laws and erosion of the fuel of law. Think the Critical Infrastructure Defence Act and the Provincial Administrative Penalties Act for two primary examples.

53% of Canadians believe this is weakening and 67% of Albertans see this is weakening.

POWER IS INVESTED IN THE PEOPLE.

Reboot decries the excessive influence of dark money donors, the potential for extremists' takeover of political parties, and Political Action Committees' self-serving capacity to take over and control candidates.

51% of Canadians believe this is weakening and 69% of Albertans see this is weakening.

PROTECTION OF THE HUMAN RIGHTS OF EVERYONE.

The UCP is becoming increasingly Authoritarian and Fascistic in how it is governing. Look at the abusive Allan Public Inquiry into UnAblertan activities and the secret heavily funded, secretive, and unaccountable Kenney War Room designed for political propaganda purposes. Also, consider the abuse of LGBTQ students in public education and the destruction of GSA groups.

35% of Canadians believe this is weakening and 44% of Albertans see this is weakening.

FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS.

This is a serious concern for citizens and citizenship. We see the Republicans undermining this principle of Democracy. We have the UCP previous leadership election under Criminal Fraud investigation by the RCMP. The General Election has numerous Elections Alberta fines against illegal UCP campaign financing breaches.

34% of Canadians believe this is weakening and 58% of Albertans see this is weakening.

46% of 18-34 year old men say elections have become less free and fair. That is a dangerous group if they stay seriously disgruntled, feel excluded, and are disregarded.

EVERYONE CAN ACTIVELY PARTICIPATE IN THE POLITICS AND CIVIC LIFE IF THEY WANT.

Reboot Alberta is, at its essence, about the Citizenship Journey to enhance, enable and empower civic participation in politics and fixing our political culture.

24% of Canadians believe this is weakening and 35% of Albertans see this is weakening.

In all these questions Albertans were rated the lowest on these beliefs.

Only 62% of Albertans, again the lowest in the land, are “proud to live in Canada.” 14% are Unsure, the highest in the nation.
31% of Albertans agree that we have a “good system of government in Canada.
A mere 53% of Albertans feel that “Canada is a prosperous country.”
Some 57% of Albertans believe Canadians are a “caring society.”

We are on a downward spiral in Alberta by the looks of this. And this is only part of the survey findings.

Will Big Money Manipulate Alberta Politics?

noreply@blogger.com (kenchapman) — Sun, 07 Jul 2019 19:33:00 +0000

The advent of American-style big, and sometimes secret donors, coming into Alberta's political culture through Political Action Committees (PAC) is not good. The situation isn't as bad as the American model where their Supreme Court ruled that, under free speech rights, there would be no contribution restrictions and no disclosure requirements for election supports and spending. However what we have for rules regarding PAC contributions is far from ideal for a health for democracy or to assure trust in our political parties and politicians and fairness in our electoral processes.

The very first law passed by the new Notley government was to impose restricted levels of donations by individuals, corporation and unions directly into Alberta political campaigns. but there are no contribution limits on corporations, unions or others for PACs. In December 2017 further legislation passed to set up an Election Commissioner with power conduct elections and to receive complaints, review and discipline on matters of involved legal breaches in elections.

PACs now have to disclose donors over $250 and they must all be from Alberta and imposed limits on spending in months before an election. We are now in constant election mode what with the hyper-partisan belligerent rivalry between the two major parties. We have the not-so-United Right United Conservative Party under Jason Kenney and Rachel Notley's rogue Alberta NDP that is far from aligned to the Federal NDP as required by party documents. Notley is also at loggerheads with the BC NDP over pipeline access to the west coast.

As a result we are now seeing some significant PAC advertising spending in October and November to get ahead of the December 1 deadline and to help identify and frame the issues for a party and/or leader before the 2019 election. The laws governing PAC are still too loose, had to enforce and the actions taken by some PACs have been dodgy at best. Now the NDP has filed a complaint with the Elections Commissioner in one such dodgy instance.

Tom Brokaw Explains Canada To Americans BUT DO THEY GET US?

noreply@blogger.com (kenchapman) — Sun, 24 Jun 2018 21:30:00 +0000

Disruptive Technologies and the Skills Revolution

noreply@blogger.com (kenchapman) — Wed, 18 Apr 2018 21:49:00 +0000

As part of my work with GO Productivity I have been all over Alberta conducting workshops on the impact and implications of disruptive and emerging technologies on small and mid-sized businesses.

Key questions we canvassed participants on was around the changing skills needed to work in a digitized and automated economy. While many existing routine and even analytical jobs in professions like law and medicine will be lost or changed, others will be created. There is definitely a “skills revolution” happening. It’s in early stages but it has traction and is gaining momentum.

The new world of work and the coming skills revolution will have disruptive impact on the next generation too. The Royal Bank of Canada has just released a report dealing with this change called “Humans Wanted, How Canadian Youth Can Thrive in the Age of Disruption.”

Here is how they frame the issue: “The next generation is entering the workforce at a time of profound economic, social and technological change. We know it. Canada’s youth know it. And we’re not doing enough about it.”

The challenge they discovered is “…a quiet crisis — of recent graduates who are overqualified for the jobs they’re in, of unemployed youth who weren’t trained for the jobs that are out there, and young Canadians everywhere who feel they aren’t ready for the future of work.”

In response, here is the ambitious commitment from the RBC to deal with the issues: “RBC wants to change the conversation, to help Canadian youth own the 2020s — and beyond. RBC Future Launch is our 10-year commitment to that cause, to help young people prepare for and navigate a new world of work that, we believe, will fundamentally reshape Canada. For the better. If we get a few big things right.”

The RBC also puts out a related challenge to business, government and educators. “We all bear responsibility to change that. As employers, we need to rethink the way we hire, retrain and continuously reshape our workforces. As educators, we need to think beyond degrees and certificates.

As governments, we need to take advantage of the world of instant information to harness the coming skills revolution. And young Canadians everywhere need to seize the moment, to demand more of Canada and more of themselves.”

We are all responsible and many of us are able to respond. As it stands now business, government and educators are all weak links in dealing with this crisis and engaging in the solutions. It will take a collaborative, concerted and consistent effort to change how we do things, independently, and more to the point, together, solve this….and it must be solved.

The place to start is to read the RBC report and reflect on the new skills and the new mix of skills for the digitized automated Industrial Revolution 4.0. Then look at your operations and start getting specific about what you can do to be part of the solution to our common problem.

When everything is changing at the same time at ever accelerating rates, there is no option to watch and wait it out. We all must take steps to be the disruptors - not the victims. Adopt, adapt and take economic advantage of the change ... or whither and die. Stark? Yup. True? Absolutely!

We're Just a Bunch of Monkeys

noreply@blogger.com (kenchapman) — Sun, 25 Mar 2018 19:21:00 +0000

I wanted to write something in anticipation of the inevitable Left vs Right commentary that will be forthcoming on the Alberta Budget debates.

However, I have not really read the Budget...yet! Pretty hard to be authoritative under those circumstances.

Still the polarized arguments and tropes from the adversaries are very easy to anticipate as they get regurgitated.

The progressive centralists in the Alberta Party are still looking for some safer, saner and sustainable solutions. That is very much a "work in progress" and the work continues.

In the meantime here is some "comic relief" round the Left vs Right at it relates in the States. Except for the names and a few other changes...for Alberta the story's the same one. (apologies to Neil Diamond for ripping of his lyrics in I Am...I Said).

Now I will delve into the 2018 Budget and look for the gems of sound fiscal management and the germs of good ideas.

It would be good if you joined my in the search.

Are Alberta's Policy Makers Agile Enough for Emerging Technologies?

noreply@blogger.com (kenchapman) — Sun, 18 Mar 2018 17:27:00 +0000

I have been travelling the province facilitating workshops on the the impacts and implications of emerging technologies in our economy. These technologies are also called disruptive and exponential by some folks, depending on if you have a half empty or half full mindset.

NEW SKILLS & NEW COMPETENCIES:
The underlying motivation for these workshops is to gauge the awareness, interest, readiness, planning and actions being taken to adopt and adapt to these transformational changes. We have taken a special interest in the skills and competencies we humans will need to be able to work with these technologies and in spite of them.

There is a lot going on in the physical realms of autonomous vehicles, drones, robotics, automation, 3D printing for example. It seems there is even more going on in the computational and information realms line artificial intelligence, machine learning, augmented and virtual reality, quantum computing. Then we have bio-engineering and nanotechnology happening at alarming rates too.

NEW MINDSETS NEEDED:
Alberta has a unique opportunity to engage and lead in many of these areas as a smart way to diversify our economy. But we need to get our heads out of the incremental mindset of conservative thinking and get seriously and creatively into an innovation mindset of progressive change.

Boldness doesn't mean recklessness or brash behaviours but it does demand leaps of imagination using ingenuity in an applied way to see things differently. This is not a call to rely on faith as a way forward. It is a demand that we look at evidence and deal with facts and live as much in the question as we do in seeking the answers.

That mean we have to teach ourselves to be innovative. We need to escape the comfort and stability of the known and consciously choose to seek out the opportunity in the uncertainty and to seek to see things differently.

RENEWING OUR INSTITUTIONS:
All of this comes into play in the collective exercise of our democracy through governance, regulation and...yes politics! Are we citizens ready, willing and able to attract, identify and elect the kind of candidates? Will we stay informed and engage with the policy-makers to influence and deal with these issues? Are our institutions up the the challenge in these transformations, including political parties?

By example of policy implications, here is a brief recent backgrounder by Herman J.H. Ossthuysen on Autonomous Vehicles in Alberta. It was originally published by the Alberta Council of Technologies as a provocation on the technological implications for policy issues for Alberta's transportation and infrastructure from autonomous vehicles in the trucking industry.

This change in approach must pervade all aspects of our lives and relationships to ourselves, to our economy, to our environment and our society. We often define ourselves by what we "do" mostly by our work. What if we envisaged a post-work society in the new reality of automation robotics and machine learning? What will we use to establish our sense of worth if we are at the end of "Homo-Economicus?"

Here is a link to a Guardian Long Reads podcast on a "Post-work: the radical idea of a world without jobs." It's about 35 minutes long so grab a cup of coffee of brew some tea and give it a listen.

The world is run by those who show up! Passive pretentious progressivism can no longer be tolerated. I will look forward to your comments on this blog post. After all we are all in this alone...together.

Alberta Party 3.0... How Did It Come to This?

noreply@blogger.com (kenchapman) — Sun, 04 Mar 2018 00:08:00 +0000

The Only Sure Thing in Alberta Politics is There is No Sure Thing.
The on-going volatility of the Alberta political culture is not smoothing out with Stephen Mandel's recent Alberta Party leadership victory. That volatility is likely to become more vociferous and starkly apparent as the adversarial win-lose, right versus left hardens the positions of the UCP and NDP. Is there any room for a rational, pragmatic and progressive centrist party option in this win-at-any-cost political culture?

Alberta Party 1.0
The Alberta Party wasn't always a progressive centrist movement, in fact quite the opposite. According to Wikipedia, which in this instance I have no reason to doubt, the Alberta Party was founded in 1985 and started out " in the early 1980s as an alliance of small separatists political parties...spawned in the wake of the National Energy Program...."

There were five parties to the right of the Alberta Progressive Conservatives in 1985 and some had elected MLAs but had lost them in the 1982 election. In 1990 there was a movement to join these right-wing parties into a new party called the Alliance Party of Alberta. It unsuccessfully contested 2 by-elections, fielded a handful of candidates in 1993 election and passed on participating in the 1997 general election entirely.

In 1998 the party changed its name to the "Alberta Party Political Association" and became known as the Alberta Party for branding purposes. In advance of the 2004 election there was a failed attempt to merge with the "Alberta Alliance Party" that had formed out of the old federal Reform Party cum Canadian Alliance party but in an Alberta context.

The merger idea was for the new entity to campaign under the Alberta Alliance Party name and to adopt the Alberta Party platform. The merger fell apart when the Alberta Party refused to de-register its name with Elections Alberta. In fact the Alberta Party official changed it name just before the 2004 election and ran 4 candidates in that election and 1 in the 2008 campaign.

Alberta Party 2.0
As the Wildrose Alliance became the dominant right-wing party in Alberta the hard-right conservatives gravitated there leaving the Progressive Conservative Party and the Alberta Party. The Alberta Party was pretty much inert but it was kept registered. It was then that the new efforts to start a movement to attract progressives from the PCs, Alberta Liberals and Greens coming out of a series of three province wide gatherings of progressives called Reboot Alberta. Reboot Alberta arose from a discontent with the rise of the far right and the need for a more effective progressive voice in Alberta politics.

This progressive movement was a loose arrangement of the Progress Party, the Reboot Alberta initiative and a Calgary centric Renew Alberta. The daunting task of raising 8000 signatures to start a new party and the attractiveness of the Alberta Party name resulted in informal discussion with the tired but true board of the Alberta Party. I took the lead in those discussions with the old board acknowledging that the Reboot/Renew initiative where the old board agreed to suspend the old far-right policy platform. The idea was to formulate a fiscal conservative, socially progressive and environmentally responsible platform.

That openness of the old Alberta Party board resulted in the unanimous election of Edwin Erickson, a former Green Party deputy leader as the Alberta Party leader. That was the beginning of a new centrist progressive political party that was a gathering place for a wide range of Albertans looking for a more authentic voice for an integrated and comprehensive pragmatist approach to politics and governance in Alberta. That was the beginning of the Alberta Party as we know it today.

Alberta Party 3.0
What will be the fortunes of the next Alberta Party? Time will tell. It appears that it finally has traction and momentum after many years of frustration and false starts. The recent leadership contest has drawn new members, new energy and renewed purpose. The hard work of raising some real money, some great candidates and viable constituency organizations with a resonant policy platform is on the agenda for the new leadership.

Trans Mountain Pipeline: Politics With a Purpose

noreply@blogger.com (kenchapman) — Wed, 21 Feb 2018 19:24:00 +0000

Can We Build and Operate a Sustainable Pipeline?
I am very much in favour of the Kinder Morgan TransMountain pipeline project. As an Albertan, and therefore the owner of the natural resources it will transport, I acknowledge the special benefits as well as the concurrent burden associated with it.

To me this project should be a prototype for an integrated, comprehensive Triple-Bottom-Line approach a promote as part of an Alberta Party governance and evidence based decision-making model. Triple Bottom Line comprehensive approaches include considerations for people, the planet and people concerns in any public policy decision. The integrated aspect is best summarized as "All things considered, consider all things."

Hard Choices to be Made
Governance is said to be about making "hard choice." That includes priority setting and values trade-offs. In this policy setting approach a policy a project may be driven by economics, like TransMountain. However in the project analysis as to what should be the policy priority, the economics may dominate but they should not trump to the point where the environmental and social concerns are dismissed as irrelevant.

Hard policy choices by government is where our elected representative set policy priorities,determine the values trade-offs and advise the public, a.k.a. citizens, of their decisions and how they came to them. We need to be aware of and accepting the consequences of such trade-offs with prior and fully-informed consent of society as well as indigenous peoples through our Treaty obligations. Such acceptance must be with an on-going goal of anticipating and detecting, preventing and correcting ignorance and error on a continuous basis.

Albertans, as resource owners, must be assured this project is not just economically viable, that conclusion is unassailable, yet it could be even better. Getting bitumen to domestic tidewater will get a much better market price, reduce market vulnerability by diversifying our market which is now 99% American, and provide good high paying jobs.

Pipeline economics however are like water is to soup, necessary but insufficient. We need to be sure this project provides social benefits, especially to those indigenous communities in it's path. We need to be sure that taxes that are levied are collected and not avoided by off-shore shenanigans we have discovered through the Panama Papers.

We also need to be vigilant and capable of dealing with ecological consequences of the pipeline operations. Yes pipelines are the safest way to transport hydrocarbons, but are they a safe as they could be? We need a new standard of continuous innovative technology adoption where industrial operations are concerned as related to the environment. This will make operations responsible, sustainable and productive in a full life cycle approach.

Politics With a Purpose
There are partisan politics around this project but it is more of a larger public policy concern that who is wining the court of public opinion battle. So lets get beyond the "He said; She Said" of left vs right politics as usual. Progressive Albertans can get more informed, take some positive action and help to make this project the best it can be, now and in the future.

Here is a link to an excellent Government of Alberta website that is key to helping Albertans to achieve those ends. I encourage all progressive Albertans and especially Alberta Party members, friends and family to take this pipeline project to heart and help out.

Looking at the Alberta Party Leadership

noreply@blogger.com (kenchapman) — Fri, 16 Feb 2018 20:52:00 +0000

A New Day and a New Way? With the retirement of Greg Clark as leader, there are four phases to the leadership change process within Alberta Party. First was to find quality and committed candidates. Done! Membership sales was next phase that closed on February 12. Done! Now the candidates have to get out there votes and persuade others members to support them for the end of February voting. In progress!

The final phase will be for the new leader to get to work. That is true for the other candidates, the sitting MLAs and the Board to grow the Party, recruit candidates and raise some cash for the next election and get focused to contest a by-election in the meantime. Next Steps!

The Alberta Party members will be deliberating on who they will support for Leadership and why. Ideally they will be sharing their thoughts with friends and family and through their social and professional networks. Raising the profile of the Party is only worthwhile if it raises support and participation in the next election.

When looking at deciding who should be the new Alberta Party leader. I am looking at what should be the go-forward leadership qualities, focus and capabilities. for the benefit of the Party My lens is about what the Alberta Party needs now to be successful in these times of change, uncertainty, pressing stewardship obligations, social cohesion needs and economic challenges.

Welcome to Uncertainty and Volatility. The Alberta Party has had a number of false starts at gaining traction and momentum since I became involved in 2009 and manged the Glenn Taylor Leadership Campaign. What is past is definitely not a prelude for what is needed today. The past is not much of a factor in helping members to decide the criteria they must apply for selecting the next leader of the Alberta Party and promoting it's future.

This is a new day in Alberta's political culture, especially given the electoral rejection of the PC dynasty and the coagulation of Reform-based social conservatives into the Kenney lead UCP. The the dramatic rise of the NDP from a 2 seat No Party Status in 2009 (when the Alberta Party started) to a 54 seat majority government by 2015. Volatility is the new normal in Alberta's political culture and anything could happen.

So what can and should the Alberta Party expect to achieve based on the three leadership candidate options? Quite a bit I would suggest. If I have my druthers I would like a leader that had the combined strengths of each candidate all rolled into one. That, unfortunately, is not reality. My list of Alberta Party leadership needs is based on what it will take to become a viable political alternative, capable of forming government and worthy of earning the public's trust.

Here is what I see as the strengths of each candidate, as applied to the needs of the Alberta Party today, and in no order of priority:

Organization. We need a leader who can recruit quality, capable and committed candidates. Those candidates must be loyal to a set of inclusive and comprehensive progressive principles, and not beholden to a party leader. That means the leader must be capable of creating a strong local presence throughout the province that results in viable, active and effective constituency organizations. That requires a leaders with a province-wide network and the ability to be forthright with potential candidates about the realities of political life. Stephen Mandel has the best capacity to offer that in my opinion.

Articulate an Albertan Progressive Vision. The failure of left versus right hyper-partisan policy options is bemoaned but what is the alternative? The Alberta Party leader must be able to position the party clearly as the progressive centrists option with pragmatic policy offerings. That policy approach must be based on an aspirational pragmatism with an inclusive, integrated Triple-Bottom-Line governance approach that sees government as force for achieving a greater good.

The "vision thing" is best articulated with a common touch and a forthright candor about Alberta's challenges, limitations, weaknesses and threats. What must we do to realizing our potential as people, communities, businesses and as a province. On this criteria I see Rick Fraser sense of the province today and aspirations for the future as the best carrier of that flame for the Alberta Party.

Future Focus and Forthrightness. The province is changing in so many ways and at an unprecedented accelerated basis. We need to get serious about Alberta coming to grips with the realities of a post-fossil fuel future. We need fresh 21st century thinking and ideas to be able to adapt to the new technologies and adopt the many available productivity innovations to secure our continuing economic prosperity.

We need to be forthright about our ecological stewardship obligations and quick enough to find the clean-tech and other business opportunities within those challenges. We need inclusive secular public policy approaches that fosters social cohesion and enables more well-being, especially for vulnerable citizens. Leaving debts and environmental clean up and reclamation obligations to future generations because we refuse to be responsible in raising government revenues to pay our way today is not acceptable. I believe Kara Levis has the courage and intelligence and has best sense of differentiating the Alberta Party to have the hard conversations of pressing and pending realities.

Citizenship and Democratic Engagement. Many Albertans have become very disengaged from the political culture of the province. As a result we run the risk of forfeiting political power to active extremists. We can see the consequences of this in American politics under President Trump. Encouraging and enabling informed citizenship to engage on issues of importance to them and thereby increasing voter participation is key to a vibrant, effective and representative democracy must be a goal for every Alberta Party member, regardless of who is the leader.

Encouraging more effective progressive citizen political involvement, including social media literacy, must be part of an Alberta Party approach to out political culture. We must do more to ensure Albertans have the skills needed to thrive the new reality of disruptive technologies including their impact on our democratic institutions. Engaging the disengaged, especially women and youth, in Alberta's political culture is key to any on-going Alberta Party success.

In conclusion....... This is not an exhaustive list of reasons to support one candidate or another. It is an effort to get Alberta Party members, and Albertans, to think past the horse-race approach of who is winning or losing, so common in political leadership contests. We also don't need to get caught up in the superficial personality assessments all too often applied to leadership selection. This Alberta Party leadership campaign is more akin to the Bruce Mau challenge in his book Massive Change when he said: "Now that we can do anything, what will we do?"

I am not endorsing any candidate directly and this post should not be interpreted as an indirect endorsement of any candidate either. I am still undecided at this time. All I ask is that Alberta Party members vote on the basis of what is best for the Alberta Party so it can be the best for Alberta.

Is There New Political Compass Emerging in Alberta?

noreply@blogger.com (kenchapman) — Sun, 04 Feb 2018 22:06:00 +0000

What is the New Political Compass?
The concept of a New Political Compass, one that moves beyond the linear spectrum of Left vs Right was introduced in 2008 by Dr. Paul Ray, the co-author of "The Cultural Creatives."

The research this post references is based on American data but I think it translates well into the Alberta political culture. We seem to be the part of Canada that is the most akin to and influenced by our relationships to the USA, especially in our oil and gas industry.

Dr. Ray's premise is that political culture in the States is no longer a horizontal binary model of left-right options. Rather we are experiencing a more complex east vs west and north vs south set of "compass" points to delineate our political culture evolution. This richer redefinition of what values people stand for frees us from the overly simplistic labeling of someone as either left or right,,,or even centrist, seen as some form of mushy middle compromise.

The old left vs right political culture model is too rigid as it over-simplifies our complex political culture and hampers the effective performance of our institutions from political parties to election reforms. Left vs Right sets up adversarial politics and offers citizens few practical options. It also seems to encourage and attract more extreme views, on either end of the spectrum. The extremes on the left and right use propaganda to crowd out the systems and design thinking necessary to deal with complex public policy issues and options.

Is There a New Political Compass in Alberta?
The majority of Albertans are in the "centre" of the Left vs Right spectrum and also believe the current political model fails to speak for them. The left and right party activists work hard to frame and label the other side as some extremist political from Communist/Socialist or Libertarian/Anarchist. We saw this in 2016 Primaries where the Republicans stirred up their base by challenging Hillary Clinton as an establishment elitists, and calling Bernie Sanders a "socialist" regardless that he identified himself as such.

In the Alberta political context this effort to label the other as extreme is alive and well. The UCP messages the NDP as collectivists and socialist, union-friendly and therefore a threat to growth and economic prosperity. The NDP pushes the impression that the UCP is economically Republican-lite as business conservatives, and Tea-Party type socially conservatives. The BCNDP government is the most obvious example of using propaganda to push extreme positions. Social conservatism in Alberta is mostly elderly and dying off due to simple demographics. The aggressive Eco-activist leftists are also losing influence seeing fewer people identifying with them and that trend is anticipated to continue.

The majority of Albertans identify as progressives but in the "mushy middle" sense of that concept. The "centre" has not been effectively defined in Alberta's political culture so it really doesn't communicate anything meaningful to those who want to see an integrated holistic political approach. They see their current options as between a plutocracy where big business makes the rules and exercises economic controls are used mostly for the benefit of the rich, or a collectivism that is seen as stifling innovation and hindering changes for more productivity and growth.

Is Alberta Ready for a Different Political Movement?
The old political model is a failure by any metric. Voter turn out is chronically low, confidence and participation in political parties is almost non-existent and trust in our democratic institutions, media, politicians and parties is low and declining. The content and compliant so-called Alberta centrist is politically alienated, disengaged and consequently ignorant about who to vote for...so they don't. As a result the election results are far from optimal in their opinions and that reinforces the alienation and disengagement.

The New Political Compass research by Paul Ray uncovered a new sense of citizenship, the so-called "New Progressive." They are not so much a bunch of mushy middling but more at "right-angles" to the socialist left or social conservative right and they are also very opposed to political control by big business. The American expression of this is the rise of the Independents who are not opting for the Democrats or Republicans, with some efforts to form a third political party Is the Alberta Party the potential provincial equivalent of the rise of Independents in America and the emergence of the "third party" evolution?

The New Progressives, according to the American research, are aligned with the values of the Cultural Creatives, more likely to volunteer, donate to charity, engaged in social justice movements and want to change the culture more than the rest of society. They are in the front of some big issues from climate change to women's concerns.

The American research shows the New Progressives are 36% of the population and estimated to be 45% of those likely to vote. Are those the new Alberta Party supporters? The "Longing for the Old Ways Cultural Conservatives, the Alberta Social Conservative UCP Rebel Media viewer types, are 19% of Americans and 22% of likely voters.

The "Stand Pat of the Left Modernists and New Deal Liberals" are 12% of Americans and 15% of likely voters. Is that equivalent of the traditional NDP supporter? There are 14% of American who identify as "Profits Over Planet and People, Business Conservatives and the Establishment Right" with 19% of the likely voters. That is the equivalent of the Calgary Belt-line big energy tower-dwellers, Canadian Federation of Independent Business members and Fraser Institute fans. Then there are 20% in the nexus of all this who feel alienated and ignored and not likely to engage or change.

Will the Alberta Party Be the Gathering Place for New Progressives?
The core question for the New Progressives, and especially in Alberta, is will they mobilize under a single banner like the Alberta Party, as a big political tent, like the Lougheed Progressive Conservatives did, and become a dominant political force? Alberta is into a time of transformation and we are seeing a change in many of our institutions, including political institutions. They are in dire need of repair or replacement but potentially driven by a desire for a re-enlightenment and a new progressive social contract.

We Albertans have lots of potential but not if we don't change from the status quo. The tired stale-dated unimaginative return to the Alberta Advantage of the United Conservative Party is the exact wrong way to go. We need to define a new Alberta Aspiration that looks beyond the superficial competitive framing of "Being the Best in the World" and stretch our New Progressive vision ino "Being the Best for the World."

That means we need to learn how to create, innovate, adapt and design our way forward as a movement dedicated to practical progressive political policies. Otherwise the writing is on the wall and Alberta is destined to decline and be a disappointment economically, ecologically, socially and politically.

What Do We Do Now?

noreply@blogger.com (kenchapman) — Thu, 01 Feb 2018 18:11:00 +0000

The Political Paradox that is Alberta

The political paradox for Alberta is that, while we have had majority governments since 1971 we have had unstable governance since about 2004. In that election year Ralph Klein kept a majority government but was loosing popular support. He gave up 12 seats that election, mostly in the Edmonton region.

The End of King Ralph
The Progressive Conservative 2004 election message to citizens on the doorsteps was this would be Ralph's last election and he would be retiring. After the election Ralph mussed about staying on as party leader. The PC rank and file membership sent him a strong message in the end of March 2006 leadership review vote at the AGM. Klein went from a typical 90% public and party approval rating to essentially a vote of non-confidence where he eked out a slim majority in the leadership review vote. Ralph was pushed out by the party members and a leadership campaign began.

One Person One Vote & Open PC Party Memberships
By October 2006 eight candidates were in the running, including (irony alert) Lyle Oberg. This Minister had been fired from Cabinet and suspended from the PC Caucus on March 22, before the dump Ralph party vote but ran for the leadership anyway. Long-shot Ed Stelmach lead on preferential vote system by less that 500 votes but was the overwhelming second choice and beat the establishment candidate Jim Dinning by more than 12,000 votes in the end.

Stelmach
The three front runners, in perceived order of power, were Jim Dinning. Ted Morton and Ed Stelmach. Dinning had support of 38 caucus member and three federal Conservatives. Stelmach had 13 caucus member's on the first ballot and 6 more on the second. Ted Morton, really a federal Reform Party and Canadian Alliance party member had one caucus member support him but the strong Reform Party grassroots machine to sell memberships.

Since May 27, 2011 the day Ed Stelmach resigned, and March 18, 2017, when Rachel Notley was elected, Alberta has had 6 Premiers. All had majority governments but they hardly evidenced anything approximating certainty and stability in governance.

Redford
When Redford won the contest she, like Stelmach, came from behind and up the middle to win. The contest was seen to be between an urban establishment candidate, Gary Mar, a rural establishment candidate, Doug Horner and, yet again, Ted Morton. Mar held an impressive 41% of the first ballot vote. Redford was a surprisingly in second place at 18.74% and Horner was a disappointing third with 14.55%. Ted Morton was never really in this contest but garnered 11.73% for 4th place and was eliminated.

Redford was over 13,000 votes behind on the first ballot but won by a mere 1600 votes with overwhelming second ballot support. She had only 1 caucus member supporting here on the first ballot and 5 more joined her for the second go round. whereas Gary Mar had 27 caucus member supporting him and 7 more came over on the second ballot. Mar had been out of politics from 2007 representing the province in Washington D.C. The rural establishment candidate Doug Horner had 14 caucus members behind him.

With such low caucus support and the influence of outsider "instant Tories" who bought PC memberships only to vote in the leadership, Redford had no clout as leader. Her disappointing style and narcissistic style and overt sense of entitlement destroyed her leadership and she resigned on March 19, 2014 and gave up her seat in August 2014.

Prentice & the Final Acts of the PC Passion Play
Dave Hancock was the unanimous caucus choice for interim leader until Jim Prentice won on September 6 2014 with the first ballot total of almost 18,000 votes while his combined opposition only garnered 5400 between them. Prentice called an earl;y election for May 5, 2015, ignoring the PC's much vaunted fixed election law. He lost badly to Rachel Notley and the NDP and resigned his seat even before this own riding results were counted.

Kenney Comes to Alberta and the UCP is Born
For some inexplicable reason, Harper's political acolyte, Jason Kenney passed on he federal Conservative party leadership and moved in on the provincial Progressive Conservative Party leadership. He was out to Unite the Right by purging the progressives from the PC party, taking it over as a conservative rump then consolidating with the Wildrose Party into a new "true" conservative party that he would lead to defeat the socialist NDP. And he did with the political death of the PCAA, the Wildrose and the birth of the United Conservative Party.

On March 18, 2017 Kenney won the PCAA leadership on the first ballot with 1,113 supporters and 75.5% of the 1,476 total votes cast. The other two candidates ran to keep the PCAA and rebuild it but to no avail.

In late July 2017 the PCAA and Wildrose membership held votes on forming the United Conservative Party. IN both cases the decision was profound.

There was a turnout of 25,000 Wildrose members, representing 57% of total members They overwhelming accepted the UCP option at 95.4%. No one knows where the other 43% of Wildrose members stood on this because there was no comments from them at all.

The Progressive Conservative party had over 27,000 members participate and voted 95% in favour of the new united party. That was a 55% turnout, again little if anything was heard from the 45% of PCAA members who stayed away from the unity vote.

A mere seven months later, on October 28, 2017, Kenney again won the UCP leadership on the first ballot with 61% leaving Brian Jean, the Wildrose candidate at 31.5, with the token progressive Doug Schweitzer at a mere 7.3% support. Since then Messrs. Jean and Schweitzer have hardly been seen or heard of as Kenney purges the Brian Jean supporters from party operations, as he did with progressives in the PCAA. He consolidates his power and turns the UCP into the KenneyCons.

Leadership Volatility Not Over Yet.
Every political Party in Alberta has a turnover in leadership. Notley became NDP leader in October 2014 and lead them to majority government in May on 2015.

The Alberta Liberals elected David Khan as leader on June 5, 2017. The Alberta Greens chose Romy Tittel as leader on November 4, 2017.

Greg Clark became Alberta Party leader in 2013 and was the longest serving party leader until he recently resigned. He now leaves Notley as the longest serving provincial party leader at 3 years and 3 months at the time of writing. The next rookie leader will be the Alberta Party who will take office on Feb 28th.

What Do We Do Now?
This brief history Alberta's political leadership shows how we got to where we are today. It illustrates just how volatile our political culture is and how the partisan fortunes and forces are shifting. Notwithstanding perpetual majority governments political volatility is likely to continue into and through the next election.

Will it result in a minority government or will Albertans sustain the support for the NDP majority? Are the unscientific political polls right and is the province about to shift to the ultra-right to a UCP majority? Next post I will lay out some scenarios and speculate on what I think will happen...or at least could happen...and why.

Subscribe?
. You might want to subscribe to this blog to get notice of new posts. I will be doing a series of posts on Alberta politics beyond the horse race analysis. However I will do some analysis on the skills and policy positions of the three Alberta Party Candidates and share my views on what they bring to Alberta politics and the fortunes of the Alberta Party itself.

I will delve more into what the Alberta Aspiration should be and what we need to change so we can adapt and reach our potential. I will explore the dangers of tired old-thinking mindset of those who say we should return to the antediluvian Alberta Advantage. I will look at the risks associated with the adversarial ideological left versus right bipolar politics we have today. I will try to offer ideas and options and reasons for moderate progressive citizens to rethink their reasons and responsibilities for political participation. Stay tuned and come along for the ride.

Why Are Alberta's Energy Sector Wages So High?

noreply@blogger.com (kenchapman) — Thu, 23 Nov 2017 23:54:00 +0000

Alberta has the highest average weekly wages in Canada. The Oil and Gas employees make twice what average industrial wages are in other sectors. Here is a link to an ATB top line analysis on these facts.

The last 3 years in the energy sector has relied on a "new normal" mantra about commodity prices being "lower for longer." The more enlightened and revised sector mantra now is "lower forever." Sure there are those who still believe that oil prices will rebound because "they always have."

Those who believe that the rebound is just around the corner are not adapting to the new reality and trying to hold on waiting for the rebound. Even if they did rebound, the consequences would be for us to revert back to old wasteful, extravagant expectations, poor and unsafe work conditions and disastrously poor productivity results.

Oil trading at $100+ hide a lot of sins and left the energy sector and its supply chains in construction, manufacturing and logistics with well founded reputation as expensive, poor quality, questionable reliability, rigid attitudes, dangerous safety records and noncompetitive from an international investment perspective.

The dramatic drop ion oil prices from $100+ to around $50 forced cost cutting and recalibrating the commercial relationships between energy customers and suppliers all the way through the system. Lots of companies with band balance sheets and mediocre management have gone under...as they should in a free market economy.

There were also serious layoffs in the oil sands energy sector developers and operators as new projects were deferred, delayed and abandoned. This was particularly in the higher paying professional ranks and repeated in very well paid contractors conventional energy service providers.

While supply and services cost have come down throughout the full range of energy sector operators, the much higher than average wages of sector workers has not come down. New initiatives are underway in progressive companies for improved productivity, adopting innovations and automation, expanding workforce skills and competencies and many more process improvements.

According to the ATB analysis, this seems to mean energy sector wages are staying high, perhaps because of the productivity improvements and innovations, not as many workers are needed any more. This is a difficult and harsh reality for many previously highly paid but laid-off wage earners. These less agile, less adaptive, less skilled, and now, a less required part of the emerging workforce, that the KenneyCons propaganda is courting for support. They are doing this by political messaging and manipulation by blaming their plight on the current government instead of working to help them adapt to the new normal of lower forever.

If these unemployed energy sector workers are waiting for prices to bounce back and presuming they will go back to the same old wasteful unproductive workplace culture of the past, they are likely to to be very disappointed. Concurrently they may find very little sympathy from other wage earners in comparable industrial sector jobs who have had flat and stagnant wages for years. They have not benefited from the booms of the past, and in fact has suffered from them in many ways.

And this doesn't even come close to dealing with the even more severe income gap between the energy sector haves in Alberta and the working poor or struggling middle-class in the rest of the economy who are the have-nots.

Deal With Dark Money PACs Before Any Bye-Election Call

noreply@blogger.com (kenchapman) — Wed, 15 Nov 2017 18:30:00 +0000

So Mr. Kenney, the leader of the United Conservative Party has a chance to get a seat in the Alberta Legislature through a bye-election, with the retirement of one of his "faithful." Premier Notley has to set the date within six months of the retirement of the former Member.

Given the questionable integrity track record of Mr Kenney in his PCAA Leadership run, new donor disclosure laws are needed before he gets to seek a seat in the Alberta Legislature.

He has already broken a promise of full disclosure in his PC Leadership campaign financial backers through an American-style Political Action Committee. These dark-money PAC operations are using a "legislative loophole" in the donor disclosure obligations in the Alberta Elections laws. As a result we can't trust him not to abuse the same loopholes in a bye-election.

Here is a link to an earlier blog post I did on the background on these danger to democracy dealings through PACs.

Elections Alberta is on it. They want legislated powers to deal with full disclosure of these dark-money political influence and financing operations.

Let's hope Premier Notley tightens up the election laws before calling the bye-election. We don't have to worry then about who, if anyone, "owns" Mr. Kenney's through anonymous purse strings in backrooms.

If we sit back and do nothing before calling the bye-election, given Mr. Kenney's anonymous dark- money fund raising tactics of the past, we may as well call it a BUY-election.

The Closed Nature of the UCP Kenney Party

noreply@blogger.com (kenchapman) — Tue, 14 Nov 2017 03:00:00 +0000

I've been doing some reading about values and mindsets and applying some of these learnings to political organizations and trends. In the previous post I spoke about Arrested, Closed and Open mindsets and related them to the Alberta NDP, UCP and Alberta Party respectively.

I want to delve a bit deeper into the characteristics of a Closed organization like the Kenney lead United Conservative Party. It is essentially a binary mindset. You are for them or against them. We saw that with the HarperCons when they framed the debate on a piece of get-tough-on-crime draft legislation of you are either "with the pornographers or against them."

As a Minister in Prime Minister Harper's Cabinet Mr. Kenney spawned his politically autocratic tendencies and honed his single-minded political focus. Winning isn't just the best thing, it's the only thing when in pursuit of political power.

There is no flexibility in the Closed organization mindset. They have difficulty accepting alternative ways of perceiving or different values. Closed organization, like the HarperCons and now the United Conservative Party, seem to be happiest with then can hunker down and try to make the world fit into what they believe to be the only truth...their truth.

Politically closed operations have tendencies to harbour zealots and extremists who not only reject alternative perspective, they can tend to demonize the "other." Those who disagree or oppose them are often labelled heretics, fools or idiots. You see this frequently in Twitter posts of, mostly anonymous, conservative trolls.

Complexity and nuance is rejected in favour of simplistic solutions and group-think leader-driven policy approaches. The default state of mind is "This is all there is." Fresh ideas and new methodologies are rare . They tend hold fast to what they see as "tried and true" so there is no need to change.

The lack of adaptability or capacity to accept new ideas or changing circumstances is seen as inappropriate because there is only the one way to be. Countervailing facts, events or circumstances are rejected by the inner circle and the rest follow along willingly accepting the "wisdom" of their leadership.

As a result we can see many UCP partisans as very tribal and absolutist in their thinking while also being differential with strong allegiance to internal authorities and leadership. Their world is full of threats so they find security in rituals, religion as they pursue power-seeking political goals. They value loyalty, traditions and like to celebrate their wins especially if they are at the expense of others.

This is not the kind of political culture that will enable Alberta to transition, to an adaptive, inclusive, integrated and progress as a province. But the UCP could become government easily if progressives choose to stay into their mindset of self-satisfied, comfortable, contented and disengaged from politics.

What is the Future of Progressive Politics in Alberta?

noreply@blogger.com (kenchapman) — Sun, 12 Nov 2017 21:40:00 +0000

I posed this question in a blog post last March when Mr. Kenney won the PC leadership.

A lot has happened since then. The PCs and Wildrose have "united" under the leadership of Mr. Kenney. Former Wildrose leader Brian Jean seems tentative about serving under Mr. Kenney.

The Alberta Liberals and Greens both have new leaders. And the Alberta Party is in the hunt now for a new leader with the surprising resignation of Greg Clark/

Premier Notley became the Leader of the Alberta NDP three years ago in October 2014, and is now the longest serving party leader in the province,. She is replacing the recently resigned Alberta Party Leader Greg Clark who became leader way back (sic) in September 2013.

With all this churn where will progressive go in the next election? They went NDP last time to turf the PCs and because of a well-founded general distrust of the Wildrose on many policy issues.

Will there be a split amongst progressives between the NDP and a refreshed Alberta Party so the UCP comes up the middle to take over and rule Alberta?

Will more women and Millennials show up next time, like they do in non-partisan municipal elections, to help organize campaigns? Will there be more progressive voters showing up so we get greater political participation and turnout? Will that expanded progressive participation and voter turn out avoid a disastrous split of progressive votes and ensure the UCP is in third place?

Will the next election be as dramatic as the last one? Would a minority government be possible?

Who knows? The reality is the volatility in Alberta politics we have experienced is now dating back to 2006 election that was portending end of the Klein era. He was kicked out as PC leader at the next AGM of the PCAA.

Political volatility in Alberta is not over yet...and frankly, we ain't seen nothing yet as we move into perpetual campaign mode two years before the next election.

Can Alberta Conservatives Win in 2019 and Deny Climate Change?

noreply@blogger.com (kenchapman) — Sun, 12 Nov 2017 18:10:00 +0000

Abacus Data has a new on-line survey of 1534 Canadians randomly selected from a panel of 500,000 Canadians. They weighted the responses to "match census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada's population" demographics.

Not sure that weighting is reliable or even possible. The Harper government killed the long form census so we likely don't have a reliable base line to weigh against. Harper did not want reliable statistical evidence contradict or undermine his political agenda.

Prime Minister Trudeau's first policy move after being elected was to return the long form census so it may be possible that Abacus Data has those results to "weigh" against. Are the results using this methodology truly representative of Canadian opinion and values? I don't know but I have a serious suspicion of on-line panel responses. Are they anything more than allegedly random samples using questionable sources where certain responses are weighted to induce or deem a representative sample?

That said, lets take a look at what the survey purports to discover in the context of what political policy should be on climate change if a political party wants to be reflective of the will of citizens and victorious at election time.

Abacus says that back in the day "...politicians who chose to be early champions of action to reduce emissions were running a certain amount of political risk." Carbon emission consequences were not fully formed in the public consciousness. However, "Today in Canada, the risk equation has changed. the bigger political peril lie in appearing indifferent to a matter of widespread and growing public perception."

If this survey is accurate half of Canadian voters (49%) won't even consider a party or a candidate that doesn't have a plan to combat climate change. Only 6% prefer a party or a candidate that ignores the issue.

If ignoring the issue of climate change is the same as denying it exists then are Conservatives, including those in Alberta, in trouble next election? Yup, but only if climate change is an election is a significant enough issue in the minds of voters. Consider this survey finding. "The rest (44%) are 'willing to consider' a party that doesn't make the climate a priority."

Abacus' analysis on the 44% says "For Canada's conservative parties and candidates, an optimistic read of these numbers is that the Conservatives cold win without an ambitious plan given that half of the population don't consider this policy a pre-requisite for their support." They go one to warn Conservatives that ignoring the climate change issues would be "tying on hand behind their backs, leaving them no room for error."

Environmentalism has changed in Canada and is now a "moderate" concern for 78% of Canadians. Only 11% see themselves as "ardent" environmentalists and another 11% are indifferent. There are 68% of us how attribute climate change to human and industrial causes, 21% say its just natural phenomenon and 2% are climate change deniers.

Obviously one way to defeat the KenneyCons (a.k.a. the UCP) in Alberta is to elevate climate change action into a ballot box issue. How might that happen? Well we need to be sure the voting public understands and appreciates the consequences of inaction or inept half-hearted action on climate change.

That may already be the case given the Abacus survey found 85% of us said "...taking no action on climate change will be severe, very severe, or catastrophic across a wide range of areas..." including agriculture, human health and insurance access, taxpayer costs of rebuilding after disasters to name a few. The momentum is for action so says 63% versus 37% who want" to do little or nothing" about climate change.

Here's the kicker for inert Conservatives on climate change. There is an enormous moral responsibility as 91% say taking action on climate change is a duty to future generations. While 47% believe the damage is already done, we are past the tipping point and there is "...little chance we could stop climate change at this point." Contrast that with 87% who feel there is "already lots of evidence we can cut emissions when we try." And, get this shift, 79% believe "...combating climate change will open up economic opportunities."

So the old-line HarperCons climate change denier stance is no longer tenable as sound political platform. The environment is not perceived as a trade-off with the economy nor is it a barrier to growth, in fact is is a catalyst for growth, responsible sustainable growth and a competitive advantage.

Will the KenneyCon UCP base in Alberta, that now is really the same old HarperCon fundamentalist social conservative crowd, accept this shift in public perception and deny being deniers? Will a UCP shift to rhetoric on responsible sustainable economic development that stewards the environment be credible to Alberta progressive voters?

I'm betting no to both propositions. That doesn't mean the UCP loses the next election. But making the integrated comprehensive mutually positive relationship between the environment and the economy as a major ballot box issue is a great start to defeating Kenney next election,

If you want to dig deeper into the Abacus survey the link is here...

Greg Clark Steps Down as Alberta Party Leader

noreply@blogger.com (kenchapman) — Sat, 11 Nov 2017 19:26:00 +0000

In a surprise move the Alberta Party is in the hunt for a new leader. With recent consolidation of the uber-right in the UCP there are a lot of free-floating former progressives in the former party of Lougheed who are looking for a home.

The Alberta Party has had a number of false-positive political test results around thwarted floor crossings from the Stelmach government and the Sherman Liberals. Never able to raise sufficient funds to really be a contender they were able to elect thier Leader Greg Clark in the last provincial election.

Whether he was nudged, pushed or saw a personal obligation to resign to help refresh the Alberta Party through a leadership contest, that is the stuff of pundit and partisan pontification. In the real world it matters not.

We have a two-party system at present that sees each other as extremist, be it the "socialist" left or "social conservative" right. The reality is the majority of Alberta voters are in the centre but nobody is really resonating with this progressive majority of Albertans. The Alberta Party is an unfulfilled potential and the Notley NDP is making moves more towards the centre while the UCP is moving farther to the radical religious right.

The three partisan options potentially to be offered to Albertans can be described as Arrested, Closed or Open. The NDP was elected as a reaction against the social conservative Wildrose and the self-serving entitled mindset of the PCs. The political surveys, while fraught with methodological faults, a consensus seems to be forming.

That is a growing perception that the NDP has peaked and further progress is "Arrested" or Stalled. Barriers towards further progress have emerged that need to be overcome. They may lack the insight to perceive or to explain what is happening so that the barriers can be overcome. Political dissonance on wedge issues may still emerge to help them sustain power and establish them as an authentic and preferred option for change.

The UCP is Closed in that they are psychologically blind to seeing alternatives to their fiscal hawkishness, social conservative base and climate change denier beliefs. They can't even see their barriers to achieving a broader "big tent" political acceptance, never mind overcome them. Their internal divisive history makes change difficult. Their membership is threatened by change and fight to perfect yesterday. They wish to return Alberta to a Bible-Belt social policy with simplistic economic policy while ignoring environmental concerns.

The Alberta Party is Open to realizing the potential of change as as evidenced by the resignation of its leader. The Alberta Party has had many barriers to becoming a significant political force but they are aware of them and open to new ways to overcome them. Recent boost in membership from disenfranchised progressives and centrists and the potential for some serious fundraising show the Alberta Party is able to more more freely to adapt and adjust to the shifting political culture of Alberta.

They are not locked in the Left versus Right outdated political perception trap. They are open to accepting individual differences and not locked into habitual patterns of the other conventional parties. They accept that change is and complex so they are not prone to jumping on the politics-as-usual simplistic bandwagons. They are more likely to have good listening skills, be accepting of differences and be non-judgmental about various approaches to life.

We may be closer to the next election and to the last one. So time is of the essence for all parties. I have no idea what will happen but nothing is guaranteed for any political party in Alberta these days.

USA Style Dark Money Has Come Into Alberta's Politics

noreply@blogger.com (kenchapman) — Mon, 24 Jul 2017 04:15:00 +0000

Alberta's laws on reforming Election Financing has come a long way since the Notley government came to office. We really needed to "clean up our act" on donor disclosures, contribution limits and political accountability.

But recently, in Alberta, we have seen the arrival of American-style Political Action Committees (PACs). They are being formed and operating outside the spirit and intent of recent Notley electoral reform efforts. Some recent legislative review is needed for some context on what has been going on around political finance reform...and what still needs to be fixed.

STEP 1:
Eliminate Corporate, Union and Employee Organization Political Donations.

The Notley government's very first piece of legislation upon being elected in 2015 was "An Act to Renew Democracy in Alberta."

It was a law designed to eliminate corporate, union and employee organizations who bargain collectively from making donations into Alberta electoral politics.

Prohibited contributions included those to, "registered" candidates in nominations, elections and by-elections. Contributions from these sources were also disallowed to "registered" constituency organizations. Something long over due and studiously ignored by the former PC government.

Step 2:
Reduce Levels of Political Contributions by Individuals

In December 2016 they took their "second step" introducing Bill 35 the Fair Elections Financing Act. The stated motive behind this law, as recorded in Hansard on December 6, 2016, was to "...rein in political spending by political parties and reduce individual contribution limits. Third parties would also no longer fund their agendas through anonymous contributions for political advertising."

The Notley government said they were getting "big money and special interests influences out of deciding elections," then adding transparency and a "level playing field for all candidates and parties...and give democracy back to Albertans." Good stuff!

The goals was to assure Albertans "...that ideas and not money would determine success or failure at the polls...that Alberta's political leaders would be chosen based on what they stand for and not be influenced by how much money was spent during political campaigns."

Specific nomination, election and by-election spending limits were set for political parties and candidates. Individuals could only donate a maximum total of $4000 per calendar year to all provincial political activities. Corporations and Unions could no longer "second" their staff to work to a campaign and keep them on the company payroll. All good stuff in the service of the admirable policy objectives.

The Wildrose was on-side and noted, in debate, that rather than a $4,000 personal contribution limit, they wanted an even lower $1,000 personal limit. They also rightly noted, that nothing had been done to stop sitting governments from abusing taxpayer sourced advertising dollars to boost an incumbent government profile leading up to an election.

By all accounts the revised system of campaign finance controls is working as intended. However the world has changed. The perpetual campaign nature of modern politics and the rise of the influence of the ubiquitous Internet means the old election writ-triggering model is out of date and out of touch. All the good intentions of fair limits, disclosure and eliminating big money backroom back-scratching anonymous influences are bring thwarted.

Step3:
Enter the Political Action Committees!
Elections Alberta tracks Third Party Advertisers both, politically and in elections. There are some "Election Advertisers" who have recently de-registered and other registrants who have not yet disclosed any information at all.

The "Political Advertisers" are even more interesting. All seven of the registered entities filed 6 months of fund raising for 2017, The Alberta Federation of Labour disclosed $490k from 24 union locals. Next was the Merit Contractors Association coming in at $194k but no details on where that money came from. That is followed by the Alberta Advantage Fund, a diverse group in at $178k. The others have raised between Zero and $25k.

These are all legitimate initiatives legally involved in election or political advertising and operating within the spirit and intent of the disclosure laws.

However, what is emerging is a number of politically active operations akin to American Political Action Committees, known as PACs. They are not registered as Third Party Advertisers because they are not active in election or political advertising.

The operations I know of, and there may be more, are the emerging Alberta Together centrists effort initiated by former Edmonton Mayor Stephen Mandel. There is the left leaning, Progress Alberta operation headed by Duncan Kinney. Full disclosure, I have been to events sponsored by both of these groups, and will continue to do so but have not donated to either of them and will not do so.

There is a coalition of conservative groups called Alberta Can't Wait, the Alberta Prosperity Fund and Unite Alberta. The latter admitted to funding part of Jason Kenney's PC Leadership Campaign.

This raises red flags about PAC political activities, because they claim to be beyond election and political advertising disclosure requirements. What is at risk with this non-disclosure is the return to backroom back-scratching politician-based influence dealings funded by big-money anonymous donors. This is not good for democracy, regardless of the quality of the intent.

Benign Citizen Engagement Groups or Secretive Political Operations?

These Alberta PACs are alleging that they are not engaged with or within any political party operations or candidate support. Their fund raising is said to be for advocacy and issues management efforts.

As a result they are third-party political action organizations with agendas and operate outside the current laws of donor disclosure and contribution limits. Operating without donor disclosure means they are essentially aligned with what has become known as Dark Money that has taken control of the American political culture.

We see these PACs organizing events, commenting and pressing on issues of concern to them as a good thing for an informed citizenry enabled for more critical thinking.

However, in the case of Unite the Right PAC, it raised $508,000 from 2,129 donors for the Jason Kenney PC leadership run. These funds were raised before the leadership writ was issued and therefore believed to outside the legal disclosure requirements.

That money was in addition to the $1,505,894.13, also raised and disclosed, within the campaign financing laws relating to Mr. Kenney's PC leadership campaign.

Mr. Kenney "promised" to disclose the identity and details of Unite the Right pre-writ anonymous donors. He has since reneged on that promise.

To be fair the Kenney PC leadership has released the names of 63 Unite the Right pre-writ donors who contributed $118,745 of the total raised. But what about the rest and why not disclose, as promised?

"Sunlight is the Best Disinfectant" - Justice Louis Brandeis

The question remains; what is the Kenney campaign hiding and why not fulfill the political promise to disclose the full pre-writ donor details? They claim to have a "subsequent" legal opinion claiming privacy constraints against disclosure.

But that is exactly the kind disclosure concerns behind the recent legal changes to the campaign financing laws.

Kenney should release the legal opinion so we could test its analysis and assess its veracity. Kenney could also offer to return those non-disclosed donors dollars to those who do not wish to be disclosed.

This may require some retroactive legislative capacity and a supervised systems by Elections Alberta to verify the return system. Is that OK, so long as it respects the privacy of those who contributed to the Kenney PAC scheme? Or is the public entitled to know all those who participated in the pre-writ non-disclosure Kenney campaign fund raising scheme?

Some ethical and moral questions obviously impinge on any such process. Could it be developed as part of a new modern, comprehensive go-forward legislative arrangement for better disclosure requirement to cover PACs.

Step 4:
NOW WHAT?

Modern politics has become perpetual election campaigning machine. Writ periods are no longer reasonable time frames to control donor disclosures and apply funding limits in Alberta's political culture.

Without continuous full disclosure and annual limits on all PAC donations regardless of policy or political influencing purposes we run the risk of seriously diminishing our democracy and, quite possibly, enabling political corruption.

We need new disclosure and contribution limit laws more aligned with the contemporary realities of Alberta's modern political culture. It cannot be delayed. Accepting non-disclosure or benign indifference to Dark Money in Alberta's politics is a clear and present danger to our democracy.

The NDP government recently said they saw no reason to revisit its recent election reform agenda. Given the rise of PACs and their donor secrecy, the perpetual nature of electoral politics, and the disclosure avoidance tactics of the Kenney PC leadership pre-writ fund raising, that reluctance has vanished.

We need to revisit and revise our political contribution laws to build on the good work done to date and enhanced to accommodate legitimate PAC influence efforts but with full and real-time detailed disclosure.

And that is a good thing for returning public trust in our political processes. And that is a necessary thing to strengthen and protect our democracy.