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Gold prices dip in Asia with markets in major buyer China closed

2014-04-07T10:50:00.002+05:30

Gold prices dip in Asia with markets in major buyer China closed

Gold prices eased slightly in Asia on Monday on renewed concerns about the pace of U.S. economic recovery and with markets in major gold buyer China closed for a public holiday. On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for June delivery traded at $1,302.30 a troy ounce, down 0.09%, after it ended Friday’s session with a gain of 1.47%, or $18.90, to settle at $1,303.50 an ounce.

Last week, gold futures rallied more than 1% to end at a one-week high, after weaker than expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls data sparked speculation that the Federal Reserve could start to slow the tapering of its bond purchases. The Labor Department reported Friday that the U.S. economy added 192,000 jobs in March, below expectations for jobs growth of 200,000. February’s figure was revised up to 197,000 from a previously reported 175,000. The U.S. unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.7%, compared to expectations for a tick down to 6.6%. The data disappointed some market expectations for a more robust reading but indicated that the Federal Reserve is likely to stick to the current pace of reductions to its asset purchase program. Gold has been under heavy selling pressure in recent weeks as upbeat U.S. economic data underlined expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin to raise rates sooner than previously thought.

In the week ahead, market players will be focusing on Wednesday’s minutes of the Fed’s most recent policy setting meeting for further clues on the future course of monetary policy. Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission released Friday showed that hedge funds and money managers decreased their bullish bets in gold futures in the week ending April 1. Net longs totaled 106,354 contracts, down 11.4% from net longs of 120,042 in the preceding week. Elsewhere on the Comex, silver for May delivery fell 0.35% to $19.877 a troy ounce. Data from the CFTC showed that net silver longs declined to 5,582 contracts as of last week, down 24.9% from net longs of 7,442 in the preceding week.

NYMEX crude oil slightly weaker in Asian trade, China markets closed

Crude oil prices eased in Asia early Monday on renewed concerns about the pace of U.S. economic recovery. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet Crude Oil for delivery in May traded at $101.00 a barrel, down 0.14%, after it ended on Friday’s session up 0.85%, or 85 cents, to settle at $101.14 a barrel. In China, markets are closed for a public holiday. Last week's gains came after the latest U.S. employment report underlined the view that the economy was regaining strength after a setback caused by bad weather. The Labor Department reported Friday that the U.S. economy added 192,000 jobs in March, below expectations for jobs growth of 200,000. February’s figure was revised up to 197,000 from a previously reported 175,000. The U.S. unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.7%, compared to expectations for a tick down to 6.6%. The jobs report disappointed some market expectations for a more robust reading but indicated that the slowdown in economic activity seen at the start of the year was temporary. Oil drew additional support from hopes that China will implement economic stimulus measures in the near-term to shore up slowing growth. The U.S. and China are the world’s two largest oil consuming nations In the week ahead, market players will be focusing on Wednesday’s minutes of the Fed’s most recent policy setting meeting for further clues on the future course of monetary policy. Oil traders are also looking ahead to monthly reports from the International Energy Agency and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries due later in the week, which will indicate expectations of supply and demand in the global market.

Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission released Friday showed that hedge funds and money managers increased their bullish bets in New York-traded oil futures in the week ending April 1. Net longs totaled 300,921 contracts, up 2.49% from net longs of 293,403 in the preceding week.

Natural gas futures edged lower

U.S. natural gas futures edged lower on Friday, after updated long-term weather-forecasting models called for milder temperatures across most parts of the U.S.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas for delivery in May lost 0.69%, or 3.1 cents, to settle at $4.439 per million British thermal units by close of trade on Friday. Natural gas fell to an 11-week low of $4.221 per million British thermal units on April 2. Futures were likely to find support at $4.221 per million British thermal units, the low from April 2 and resistance at $4.483, the high from April 3.

On the week, Nymex natural gas prices slumped 1.02%, or 4.6 cents amid concerns that the arrival of spring will bring warmer temperatures throughout the U.S. and cut into demand for heating. Updated long-term weather forecasts called for gradual warm-up over the Mid-Continent during the next 15 days, likely reducing demand for the fuel. Spring and fall see the weakest demand for natural gas in the U.S, as the absence of extreme temperatures curbs demand for heating and air conditioning.

The heating season from November through March is the peak demand period for U.S. gas consumption. Approximately 52% of U.S. households use natural gas for heating, according to the Energy Department. Natural gas rallied 2.4% on Thursday after weekly supply data showed that natural gas storage in the U.S. fell by 74 billion cubic feet, much higher than the five-year average drop of 8 billion cubic feet for this time of year. Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 822 billion cubic feet, the lowest for this time of year since 2003. Utilities withdrew a record 3.012 trillion cubic feet of gas from storage since the start of the heating season in November. Many analysts expect this to be the last weekly withdrawal as the winter heating season draws to a close.

Economic Calendar


Time	Cur.	Imp.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Monday, April 7
All Day		Holiday	China - Tomb Sweeping Day
2:00	EUR		German Industrial Production (MoM)		0.30%	0.80%
3:00	EUR		Spanish Industrial Production (YoY)		1.70%	1.10%
3:15	CHF		Swiss CPI (MoM)		0.20%	0.10%
3:15	CHF		Swiss CPI (YoY)		-0.10%	-0.10%
4:00	NOK		Norway Manufacturing Production (MoM)		0.30%	-0.40%
4:30	EUR		Sentix Investor Confidence		14.2	13.9
5:00	SGD		Singaporean Foreign Reserves USD (MoM)			274.00B
10:00	USD		CB Employment Trends Index			116.4
15:00	USD		Consumer Credit		14.09B	13.70B
18:00	NZD		NZIER Business Confidence			52
19:50	JPY		Current Account n.s.a.		0.628T	-1.589T
21:30	AUD		NAB Business Confidence			7
21:30	AUD		NAB Business Survey

Gold falls on strong U.S. growth and jobless claims data

2014-03-28T10:58:00.002+05:30

Gold falls on strong U.S. growth and jobless claims data

Gold prices fell on Thursday after strong data on U.S. quarterly growth and weekly jobless claims solidified expectations for the Federal Reserve to wind down monthly asset purchases this year and begin hiking benchmark interest rates in 2015, ending years of ultra-loose policies that have bolstered the yellow metal.

Fed asset purchases, currently set at $55 billion a month, weaken the dollar to spur recovery, thus bolstering gold's appeal as a hedge as long as the Fed intervenes.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for June delivery traded at $1,292.50 a troy ounce during U.S. trading, down 0.84%, up from a session low of $1,291.40 and off a high of $1,307.40. The June contract settled down 0.61% at $1,303.40 on Wednesday.

Futures were likely to find support at $1,265.00 a troy ounce, the low from Feb. 10, and resistance at $1,343.00, the high from March 21. A fresh batch of improving U.S. economic indicators kept expectations firm that the Federal Reserve will wind down monthly asset purchases this year and hike rates the next, which strengthened the dollar on Thursday. Gold and the dollar tend to trade inversely with one another.

The Fed's asset-purchasing program, currently set at $55 billion in Treasury and mortgage debt a month, weakens the dollar by suppressing long-term interest rates to spur investing and hiring, thus boosted gold's appeal as a hedge. The Commerce Department reported earlier that U.S. gross domestic product was revised up to 2.6% in the final three months of 2013, from a preliminary estimate of 2.4%. Market expectations had been for an upward revision to 2.7%. Still, the report showed that personal spending was revised up to 3.3% from 2.6% initially, the fastest rate of growth in three years, which drew applause from investors. Separately, the Labor Department said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the U.S. last week declined by 10,000 to a 311,000 from the previous week’s revised total of 321,000. Analysts were expecting jobless claims to rise by 4,000. Thursday's data fueled already growing opinions that a spate of disappointing economic indicators released earlier in the year were the product of rough winter weather and not due to an underlying decline in demand. Investors shrugged off a National Association of Realtors report revealing that its pending home sales index dropped by 0.8% last month, disappointing expectations for a 0.3% gain.

NYMEX crude oil prices retain gains in Asia as U.S. data buoys

Crude oil prices gained slightly in Asia on Friday on a carryover from overnight better-than-expected U.S. economic growth and weekly jobless claims data.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude oil for delivery in May traded at $101.35 a barrel, up 0.07%. On Thursday it reached the highest settlement price since March 7, after hitting an overnight session low of $100.04 a barrel and a high of $101.69 a barrel.

Brent oil on the ICE futures exchange rose 80 cents, or 0.8%, to $107.83 a barrel on Thursday, its highest level since March 14.
Oil prices shot up after the Commerce Department reported earlier that U.S. gross domestic product was revised up to 2.6% in the final three months of 2013, up from a preliminary estimate of 2.4%. Market expectations had been for an upward revision to 2.7%.
Still, the report showed that personal spending was revised up to 3.3% from 2.6% initially, the fastest rate of growth in three years, which drew applause from investors betting that sluggish economic indicators hitting the wire earlier this year were the result of rough winter weather that disrupted commerce and not due to an economic soft patch.
Separately, the Labor Department said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the U.S. last week declined by 10,000 to a 311,000 from the previous week’s revised total of 321,000.
Analysts were expecting jobless claims to rise by 4,000.

Natural gas shoots up on bullish U.S. stockpile report

Natural gas futures shot up on Thursday after data revealed Americans demanded more of the commodity last week than expected.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas futures for delivery in May traded at $4.499 per million British thermal units during U.S. trading, up 2.35%. The commodity hit session high of $4.500 and a low of $4.368. The May contract settled up 0.43% on Wednesday to end at $4.395 per million British thermal units. Natural gas futures were likely to find support at $4.258 per million British thermal units, Monday's low, and resistance at $4.585, the high from March 17. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that natural gas storage in the U.S. in the week ending March 21 fell by 57 billion cubic feet, surpassing expectations for a decline of 54 billion cubic feet. Supplies fell by 90 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier while the five-year average change for the week is a drop of 7 billion cubic feet. Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 896 billion cubic feet, the lowest for this time of year since 2003. Stocks were 899 billion cubic feet less than last year at this time and 926 billion cubic feet below the five-year average of 1.822 trillion cubic feet for this time of year.

The report showed that in the East Region, stocks were 419 billion cubic feet below the five-year average, following net withdrawals of 39 billion cubic feet. Stocks in the Producing Region were 378 billion cubic feet below the five-year average of 754 billion cubic feet after a net withdrawal of 15 billion cubic feet.

The numbers sparked a rally, which may be short-lived, as updated long-term weather-forecasting models called for a return of milder temperatures across most parts of the U.S. once a frigid winter system clears out of the eastern U.S. Natural gas prices have been under heavy selling pressure in recent sessions amid concerns that the arrival of spring will bring warmer temperatures throughout the U.S. and cut into demand for heating. The heating season from November through March is the peak demand period for U.S. gas consumption. Approximately 52% of U.S. households use natural gas for heating, according to the Energy Department.

Economic Calendar

Time	Cur.	Event	Forecast	Previous
Friday, March 28
15:00	GBP	Business Investment (QoQ)	2.40%	2.40%
15:00	GBP	Current Account	-14.0B	-20.7B
15:00	GBP	GDP (QoQ)	0.70%	0.70%
15:00	GBP	GDP (YoY)	2.70%	2.70%
15:00	GBP	Index of Services	0.60%	0.80%
15:30	EUR	Business and Consumer Survey	101.4	101.2
15:30	EUR	Business Climate	0.4	0.4
15:30	EUR	Consumer Confidence	-13	-12.7
15:30	EUR	Consumer Inflation Expectation		13.6
15:30	EUR	Industrial Sentiment	-3	-3.4
16:30	INR	Indian FX Reserves, USD		297.29B
18:00	USD	Core PCE Price Index (MoM)	0.10%	0.10%
18:00	USD	Personal Income (MoM)	0.20%	0.30%
18:00	USD	Personal Spending (MoM)	0.30%	0.40%
18:00	USD	Real Personal Consumption (MoM)	0.10%	0.30%
19:25	USD	Michigan Consumer Expectations	70.2	69.4
19:25	USD	Michigan Consumer Sentiment	80.5	79.9
19:25	USD	Michigan Current Conditions	96.3	96.1
19:25	USD	Michigan Inflation Expectations		3.20%
20:00	USD	ECRI Weekly Annualized (WoW)		2.30%

Gold prices flat in Asia on dollar support as Fed hikes next year likely

2014-03-26T10:21:00.000+05:30

Gold prices flat in Asia on dollar support as Fed hikes next year likely

Gold prices traded flat in Asia on Wednesday on mild dollar support on growing prospects for rate hikes in the U.S. next year.

Overnight, gold prices rose earlier after the Commerce Department said new home sales fell by the most in five months in February, indicating headwinds still face the housing sector.
Sales of new homes fell by 3.3% in February to 440,000 units, the weakest level since last September. Still, analysts were calling for a decline of 4.9%.

January's sales were revised down to a 455,000-unit pace from the previously reported 468,000-unit rate.

Also on Tuesday, a report on U.S. housing showed that prices rose slightly less than expected in January.
The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home price index rose 13.2% in January from a year earlier, compared to forecasts for a 13.3% gain.
The numbers weakened the dollar, though growing expectations for the Federal Reserve to wind down its bond-buying program this year and hike benchmark interest rates somewhere around the middle of 2015 wiped out most of the precious metals gains.
Federal Reserve Chairwoamn Janet Yellen suggested at a press conference last week that interest rates could rise six months after the Fed's bond-buying program ends, which is widely seen taking place this fall.
Fed asset purchases, currently set at $55 billion a month, aim to stimulate the economy by suppressing interest rates, weakening the dollar as long as they remain in effect and making gold an attractive hedge.

Solid consumer confidence data watered down demand for gold as well.
The Conference Board reported that its consumer confidence index increased to 82.3 this month, the highest since January 2008, from 78.3 in February. Analysts had expected the index to tick up to 78.6.

NYMEX crude oil prices gain in Asia, but tempered by API data

Crude oil prices rose slightly in Asia on Wednesday on continued geopolitical tensions over the Ukraine, but ample U.S. industry inventory data tempered gains.Brent crude for May delivery, which gauges global oil prices, rose 18 cents, or 0.2%, to $106.99 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange on Tuesday.

Industry trade group the American Petroleum Institute said domestic crude stockpiles rose 6.3 million barrels last week, while gasoline stocks declined 2.8 million barrels, distillate stocks rose 0.3 million barrels and refinery runs were 86.8% of capacity. The U.S. Department of Energy will release its own estimates on Wednesday. Overnight, crude futures fell as investors remained spooked over soft Chinese output data released during the weekend, largely shrugging off robust U.S. consumer confidence data.
Crude falls on China output data, looks past U.S. confidence report

Soft Chinese factory data released over the weekend continued to water down oil prices on Tuesday. China’s HSBC Flash Purchasing Managers Index, the earliest indicator of the country's industrial activity, fell to an eight-month low of 48.1 in March from a final reading of 48.5 in February, defying expectations for a rise to 48.7.

China is the world's second-largest consumer of crude. Robust consumer confidence data failed to rally prices, as mixed U.S. housing data disappointed energy markets. The Conference Board reported that its consumer confidence index increased to 82.3 this month, the highest since January 2008, from 78.3 in February. Analysts had expected the index to tick up to 78.6. The report showed that consumers expect the economy to continue improving and believe it may gather momentum in the coming months. Separately, the Commerce Department said new home sales fell by the most in five months in February, indicating headwinds still face the housing sector.

Natural gas shoots up as late-season blizzard roars across U.S.

Natural gas futures shot up on Tuesday as blizzard was set to roar across the northeast and hike demand for heating.

The May contract settled down 0.58% on Monday to end at $4.272 per million British thermal units. Natural gas futures were likely to find support at $4.258 per million British thermal units, Monday's low, and resistance at $4.585, the high from March 17. A powerful storm was forming over the Atlantic and poised roar across the northeastern U.S. later Tuesday, dumping heavy snow along the way. Investors snapped up the commodity on expectations that demand for natural gas will be stronger than once expected, though forecasts for a return of milder springtime temperatures in the coming days capped gains. Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 953 billion cubic feet as of last week, the lowest for this time of year since 2003, following a smaller than expected withdrawal of 48 billion cubic feet.

Early withdrawal estimates for this Thursday’s storage data range from a decline of 36 billion cubic feet to 76 billion cubic feet, compared to a drop of 90 billion cubic feet during the same week a year earlier.

The five-year average change for the week is a decline of 7 billion cubic feet. Natural gas prices have been under heavy selling pressure in recent sessions amid concerns that the arrival of spring will bring warmer temperatures throughout the U.S. and cut into demand for heating. The heating season from November through March is the peak demand period for U.S. gas consumption. Approximately 52% of U.S. households use natural gas for heating, according to the Energy Department.

Economic Calendar

Time	Cur.	Event	Forecast	Previous
Wednesday, March 26
2:00	USD	API Weekly Crude Stock		5.920M
2:00	USD	API Weekly Distillates Stocks		-0.674M
2:00	USD	API Weekly Gasoline Stock		-1.410M
4:30	USD	FOMC Member Plosser Speaks
11:30	USD	FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
16:30	USD	MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate		4.50%
16:30	USD	MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)		-1.20%
18:00	USD	Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM)	0.30%	1.10%
18:00	USD	Durable Goods Orders (MoM)	1.00%	-1.00%
18:00	USD	Goods Orders Non Defense Ex Air (MoM)	0.60%	1.50%
19:15	USD	Services PMI	54.2	53.3
20:00	USD	Crude Oil Inventories		5.850M
20:00	USD	EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks		-3.097M
20:00	USD	Gasoline Inventories		-1.467M
22:30	USD	5-Year Note Auction		1.53%

Gold prices weaker in Asia as investors look ahead to the Fed

2013-12-17T10:09:00.000+05:30

Gold prices weaker in Asia as investors look ahead to the Fed

Gold prices fell in Asia on Tuesday as investors looked ahead to a Federal Reserve meeting set to give further guidance on the timing of plans to taper its USD85 billion in monthly asset purchases.

London-based market research group Markit reported earlier that its preliminary U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers’ index declined to a seasonally adjusted 54.4 in December from a final reading of 54.7 in November. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported earlier that its Empire State manufacturing index came in at 0.98 in December compared to November's -2.21 reading, though analysts were expecting the index to rise to 4.75.

Separately, the Federal Reserve reported that U.S. industrial production advanced 1.1% in November after having edged up 0.1% in October, beating consensus forecasts for a 0.5% November reading. The data encouraged investors to sell the greenback for profits until the Fed makes its policy stance clear on Wednesday. Market talk said gold, which has taken a beating in recent sessions on expectations for the Fed to taper on Dec. 18, could rally if the U.S. central bank opts to hold off until early 2014.

NYMEX crude oil flat in Asia with focus on Federal Reserve

Crude oil prices traded flat in Asia Tuesday with investors squarely focused on the Federal Reserve after spotty U.S. economic indicators rekindled expectations that the Federal Reserve could hold off on tapering its USD85 billion in monthly asset purchases at a policy meeting this week and wait until early next year.

ICE Futures Exchange Brent crude for January delivery, which expired at the end of the trading session, rose 1.5% to USD110.47 a barrel, posting its highest settlement since Dec. 6. The more actively traded February contract added 1% to USD109.41 a barrel.

London-based market research group Markit reported earlier that its preliminary U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers’ index declined to a seasonally adjusted 54.4 in December from a final reading of 54.7 in November.
Analysts were expecting the index to rise to 54.9 this month.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported earlier that its Empire State manufacturing index came in at 0.98 in December compared to November's -2.21 reading, though analysts were expecting the index to rise to 4.75.

Natural gas falls as forecasts call for break in U.S. cold snap

Natural gas prices dropped on Monday after updated weather-forecasting models called for below-normal temperatures to give way to a thawing trend across a good portion of the eastern U.S.

Losses were somewhat limited over the possibility that a fresh blast of Arctic air could move in towards the end of December.

Cold weather will give way to seasonable and even above-normal temperatures across portions of the eastern half of the U.S. in the coming week, which sent natural gas prices falling.

Milder temperatures diminish the need for heating this time of year, thus decreasing demand for natural gas at the nation's thermal power generators.
The commodity came off earlier lows on expectations for a blast of below-normal temperatures to return by the last two weeks of the month, which should hike demand for heating in the country's homes and businesses.

Economic Calendar

Time	Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Tuesday, December 17
15:00	GBP	Core CPI (YoY)		1.80%	1.70%
15:00	GBP	Core PPI Output (MoM)		0.10%	0.10%
15:00	GBP	Core PPI Output (YoY)		0.90%	0.90%
15:00	GBP	Core RPI (YoY)		2.70%	2.70%
15:00	GBP	Core RPI (MoM)		0.10%	0.00%
15:00	GBP	CPI (YoY)		2.20%	2.20%
15:00	GBP	CPI (MoM)		0.20%	0.10%
15:00	GBP	House Price Index (YoY)		4.20%	3.80%
15:00	GBP	PPI Input (MoM)		-0.50%	-0.60%
15:00	GBP	PPI Input (YoY)		-1.20%	-0.30%
15:00	GBP	PPI Output (YoY)		0.90%	0.80%
15:00	GBP	PPI Output (MoM)		-1.20%	-0.30%
15:00	GBP	RPI (YoY)		2.70%	2.60%
15:00	GBP	RPI (MoM)		0.10%	0.00%
15:30	EUR	Core CPI (YoY)		0.90%	0.80%
15:30	EUR	Core CPI (MoM)			0.00%
15:30	EUR	CPI (YoY)		0.90%	0.90%
15:30	EUR	CPI (MoM)		-0.10%	-0.10%
15:30	EUR	Labor Cost Index (YoY)			0.90%
15:30	EUR	ZEW Economic Sentiment		60.9	60.2
16:30	GBP	CBI Industrial Trends Orders		11	11
18:15	USD	Chain Store Sales (WoW)			-1.60%
18:15	USD	Chain Store Sales (YoY)			1.50%
19:00	USD	Core CPI (YoY)		1.70%	1.70%
19:00	USD	Core CPI (MoM)		0.10%	0.10%
19:00	USD	CPI (YoY)		1.30%	1.00%
19:00	USD	CPI (MoM)		0.10%	-0.10%
19:00	USD	Current Account		-100.0B	-98.9B
19:00	USD	Real Earnings (MoM)		0.30%	0.10%
19:25	USD	Redbook (MoM)			-1.50%
19:25	USD	Redbook (YoY)			2.60%
20:30	USD	NAHB Housing Market Index		55	54
21:00	GBP	BoE Gov Carney Speaks
22:00	USD	4-Week Bill Auction			0.03%
22:00	USD	Cleveland CPI (MoM)			0.10%
23:30	USD	2-Year Note Auction			0.30%
23:30	USD	5-Year Note Auction			1.34%

Gold prices hold gains in Asia on holiday demand bargain hunting

2013-12-10T15:33:00.003+05:30

Gold prices hold gains in Asia on holiday demand bargain hunting

Gold prices rose in Asia on Tuesday, continuing a rebound from overnight on holiday-related demand and bargain hunting.

Gold fell on Friday after the Department of Labor said the U.S. economy added 203,000 jobs in November, beating expectations for a 180,000 increase and up from a downwardly revised 200,000 rise the previous month. Also on Friday, data revealed the preliminary Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index increased to 82.5 in December from 75.1 the previous month, far surpassing expectations for a 76.0 reading.

Both reports cemented expectations for the Federal Reserve to begin scaling back its USD85 billion in monthly bond purchases in early 2014, which have supported gold prices for over a year by weakening the dollar. Bargain hunters sent prices back into positive territory on Monday, especially after Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said tapering will become increasingly likely as long as the labor market continues to improve.

“A small taper might recognize labor market improvement while still providing the Committee the opportunity to carefully monitor inflation during the first half of 2014,” Bullard said in prepared remarks of his speech. “Should inflation not return toward target, the Committee could pause tapering at subsequent meetings.”

NYMEX crude oil rebounds in Asia on global growth prospects

Crude oil prices rose in Asia on Tuesday on continued expectations for rebounding global growth.

In the private sector, 196,000 jobs were added last month, compared to expectations for a 180,000 rise, after an increase of 214,000 in October. The report also said the U.S. unemployment rate fell to 7.0% in November from 7.3% in October, beating expectations for a downtick to 7.2%.

Also on Friday, the preliminary Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index increased to 82.5 in December from 75.1 the previous month, far surpassing expectations for a 76.0 reading.The data sent oil rising on sentiments that the U.S. economy is gaining momentum and will demand more fuel and energy going forward.

Natural gas prices shoot up on wintry weather forecasts

Natural gas prices shot up on Monday after updated weather forecasting models continued to call for below-normal temperatures to hover across most of the country in the coming week.

Winter weather systems will tack across the U.S. over the next week bringing with them frigid air until seasonably cool temperatures settle over portions of the eastern half of the country by the third week of December, which sent natural gas prices rising.
Colder temperatures hike the need for heating this time of year, thus increasing demand for natural gas at the nation's thermal power generators.

U.S. supply levels remained in focus. Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 3.614 trillion cubic feet as last week, more than 5% below last year's unusually high level and nearly 3% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Economic Calendar


Time	Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Tuesday, December 10
0:45	USD	FOMC Member Fisher Speaks
5:00	USD	FOMC Member Fisher Speaks
5:31	GBP	RICS House Price Balance	58%	60%	57%
11:00	CNY	Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY)		20.00%	20.10%
11:00	CNY	Chinese Industrial Production (YoY)		10.10%	10.30%
11:00	CNY	Chinese Retail Sales (YoY)		13.30%	13.30%
15:00	GBP	Industrial Production (MoM)		0.30%	0.90%
15:00	GBP	Industrial Production (YoY)		3.20%	2.20%
15:00	GBP	Manufacturing Production (YoY)		2.90%	0.80%
15:00	GBP	Manufacturing Production (MoM)		0.40%	1.20%
15:00	GBP	Trade Balance		-9.35B	-9.82B
17:30	EUR	ECB President Draghi Speaks
18:00	USD	NFIB Small Business Optimism		92.7	91.6
19:25	USD	Redbook (YoY)			4.90%
19:25	USD	Redbook (MoM)			-0.20%
20:30	GBP	NIESR GDP Estimate			0.70%
20:30	USD	Wholesale Inventories (MoM)		0.30%	0.40%
22:00	USD	4-Week Bill Auction			0.03%
22:00	USD	52-Week Bill Auction			0.14%
23:30	USD	3-Year Note Auction			0.64%

Crude prices drop on soft U.S. jobs report, supply data weigh

2013-10-23T10:18:00.002+05:30

Gold soars as weak U.S. jobs report cements calls for loose Fed policy

Gold prices soared on Tuesday after a disappointing U.S. September jobs report strengthened expectations for the Federal Reserve to put off plans to wind down stimulus programs probably until early 2014.

Stimulus tools often weaken the dollar to drive recovery, making gold an attractive hedge.

The dollar sank and gold soared after the Department of Labor said the U.S. economy added 148,000 jobs in September, well below expectations for an increase of 180,000.

The previous month’s figure was revised up to a gain of 193,000 from a previously reported increase of 169,000.

Crude prices drop on soft U.S. jobs report, supply data weigh

Oil prices fell on Tuesday after the U.S. September jobs report disappointed investors and painted a picture of a U.S. economy still battling headwinds along its road to recovery, one that may demand less fuel and energy than once anticipated.

Bearish inventory data released Monday pressured prices down as well.

Oil prices fell after the Department of Labor said the U.S. economy added 148,000 jobs in September, well below expectations for an increase of 180,000.

The previous month’s figure was revised up to a gain of 193,000 from a previously reported increase of 169,000.

Natural gas falls as stockpiles meet bearish expectations

Natural gas prices fell on Tuesday after official data revealed mild autumn weather in the U.S. cut into demand in recent weeks.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report earlier that natural gas storage in the U.S. in the week ended Oct. 11 rose by 77 billion cubic feet, just below bearish forecasts for an increase of 80 billion cubic feet.

Inventories increased by 54 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change for the week is a build of 75 billion cubic feet.

Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 3.654 trillion cubic feet as of October 11.

Stocks were 115 billion cubic feet less than last year at this time and 57 billion cubic feet above the five-year average of 3.597 trillion cubic feet for this time of year.

Economic Events:

Time	Cur.	Event	Forecast	Previous
Wednesday, October 23
14:00	GBP	MPC Meeting Minutes
16:30	USD	MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)		0.30%
18:00	USD	Import Price Index (MoM)	0.20%	0.00%
18:30	USD	House Price Index (MoM)	0.80%	1.00%
18:30	USD	House Price Index (YoY)	7.10%	8.80%
19:30	EUR	Consumer Confidence	-14.4	-14.9
19:30	USD	CB Employment Trends Index		113.5
20:00	USD	Crude Oil Inventories	2.938M	3.999M
20:00	USD	EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks	-1.775M	-1.801M
20:00	USD	Gasoline Inventories	-0.250M	-2.570M

Gold dips but holds firm on talk Fed to keep monetary policy loose

2013-10-21T09:45:00.001+05:30

Gold dips but holds firm on talk Fed to keep monetary policy loose

Gold prices moved lower but remained firm on expectations for the Federal Reserve to keep asset-purchasing programs in place to offset any drag a recent fiscal showdown that closed the government and nearly threw the country into default may have on recovery.

Stimulus tools often weaken the dollar to drive recovery, making gold an attractive hedge.

While markets breathed a sigh of relief after the U.S. Congress passed a bill to reopen the government and raise the debt ceiling this week, expectations continued to persist that the Federal Reserve may delay plans to taper its stimulus program until early 2014.

The Fed is currently buying USD85 billion in Treasury holdings and mortgage debt a month to boost the economy, a monetary policy tool known as quantitative easing that drives down interest rates to spur recovery, weakening the dollar and making gold an attractive hedge in the process.

Crude prices jump on solid Chinese growth figures

Oil prices jumped up on Friday after China's quarterly gross domestic product figure met market expectations and boosted hopes for demand in the world's second-largest economy to remain firm.

Official data showed that China's gross domestic product grew by 7.8% in the third quarter, in line with expectations and up from 7.5% in the three months to June.

The data eased concerns over the strength of the recovery in the world's second-largest economy, which boosted oil prices.

Oil also support on expectations for the Federal Reserve to keep its monthly USD85 billion bond-buying program in place into 2014 to offset any effects the recent fiscal showdown may have on recovery.

Natural gas falls on expectations for rising supplies

Natural gas prices fell on Friday amid concerns mild weather may have hampered demand over the past two weeks and left the country's stockpiles high.

A government shutdown left markets without weekly supply data, prompting investors to sell and await fresh market-moving data, though concerns persisted that the next report due out next week will be bearish.

Updated weather models continued to call for below-normal temperatures to hover over portions of the central and eastern U.S. in late October, though chilly forecasts were already priced into trading.

Concerns fall's mild temperatures have crimped demand sent prices falling.

Demand for natural gas tends to fall at the country's thermal power plants as temperatures moderate, as homes and businesses rely less on heating or air conditioning.

Economic Events:

Time	Cur.	Event	Forecast	Previous
Monday, October 21
17:30	USD	Chicago Fed President Evans Speaks
18:00	USD	Chicago Fed National Activity		0.14
19:30	USD	Existing Home Sales	5.32M	5.48M
19:30	USD	Existing Home Sales (MoM)	-2.50%	1.70%
20:00	USD	Crude Oil Inventories	2.164M	6.807M
20:00	USD	EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks	-1.564M	-3.141M
20:00	USD	Gasoline Inventories	0.107M	0.149M
21:00	USD	3-Month Bill Auction		0.13%
21:00	USD	6-Month Bill Auction		0.15%

Gold futures re-approach 3-month low on hopes for U.S. deal

2013-10-15T18:26:00.002+05:30

Gold futures re-approach 3-month low on hopes for U.S. deal

Gold futures traded near a three-month low on Tuesday, as hopes for a breakthrough in the Washington impasse weighed on assets viewed as safe havens.

The December contract ended 0.66% higher on Monday to settle at USD1,276.60 a troy ounce.

Gold futures were likely to find near-term support at USD1,262.60 a troy ounce, the low from October 11 and resistance at USD1,311.80, the high from October 10.

The precious metal’s safe-haven appeal was dampened as investors were encouraged by signs of progress by U.S. lawmakers to end the standoff in Washington ahead of Thursday’s deadline.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said Monday that “tremendous progress” had been made towards a deal, fuelling hopes that a compromise can be reached.

If an agreement to raise the federal borrowing limit is not struck ahead of Thursday’s deadline, the U.S. will face an unprecedented sovereign debt default.

However, any potential deal will still have to be approved by the House of Representatives, where Speaker John Boehner would have to decide whether to allow a vote or demand federal spending cuts.

Silver futures tumble 2% on U.S. debt deal progress

Silver futures tumbled to a three-week low on Tuesday, as investors were encouraged by signs of progress by U.S. lawmakers to end the standoff in Washington ahead of Thursday’s deadline.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, silver futures for December delivery traded at USD20.93 a troy ounce during European morning trade, down 1.95%.

Silver prices fell by as much as 2.05% earlier in the session to hit a daily low of USD20.91 a troy ounce, the weakest level since October 1.

The December contract ended 0.45% higher on Monday to settle at USD21.35 a troy ounce.

Silver prices were likely to find support at USD20.64 a troy ounce, the low from October 1 and resistance at USD21.68, the previous session’s high.

Crude oil fluctuates with U.S. debt negotiations, Iran talks in focus

Crude oil futures swung between gains and losses on Tuesday, as investors assessed the potential for an agreement to raise the U.S. debt ceiling and ahead of talks over Iran's nuclear program.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in November traded at USD102.26 a barrel during European morning trade, down 0.15%.

New York-traded oil futures held in a range between USD102.08 a barrel, the daily low and a session high USD102.46 a barrel.

The November contract ended 0.38% higher at USD102.41 a barrel on Monday.


Time	Cur.	Event	Forecast	Previous
Tuesday, October 15
18:00	USD	NY Empire State Manufacturing Index	7	6.29
18:25	USD	Redbook (YoY)		3.30%
18:25	USD	Redbook (MoM)		-0.50%
19:30	USD	FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
21:00	USD	3-Month Bill Auction		0.04%
21:00	USD	6-Month Bill Auction		0.06%

Gold gains on fears U.S. default risk chance on increase

2013-10-15T11:02:00.000+05:30

Gold gains on fears U.S. default risk chance on increase

Gold prices rose on Monday after a fiscal deadlock in the U.S. Congress threatened to send the government into default possibly later this week, which weakened the dollar.

Gold and the dollar tend to trade inversely with one another.

Gold futures were likely to find support at USD1,262.60 a troy ounce, Friday's low, and resistance at USD1,330.10, Tuesday's high.

Talks between the White House and congressional Republicans and Democrats remained in a deadlock on Monday, with both sides still unable to agree on a short-term debt ceiling increase.

The U.S. is due to hit its debt ceiling likely on Thursday, after which Washington won't be able to guarantee all of its obligations.

Crude prices rise on bargain hunting, solid euro zone output data

Bottom fishers snapped up nicely priced oil positions on Monday and erased losses stemming from fears the U.S. government risks defaulting on its debts and slowing growth at home and possibly abroad as a consequence.

Negotiations between the White House and congressional Republicans and Democrats remained in a deadlock on Monday, with both sides unable to agree on a short-term debt ceiling increase.

A government shutdown, also the product of congressional ability to agree on a spending package, was set to enter its third week this week.

World finance ministers and central bank chiefs gathered in Washington for the annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, calling for urgent action to end the stalemate and avoid default, which could bruise global economic recovery and crimp demand for energy.

Natural gas prices back off highs, stay firm on chilly weather forecasts

Natural gas prices fell back from earlier session highs but remained in positive territory as weather forecasts continued to point to cooler temperatures settling in over the central and eastern U.S. by late October.

Updated weather models called for seasonably mild temperatures to stick around through Oct. 23 for portions of the central and eastern U.S., though below-normal temperatures should settle in afterwards, which supported gas prices.

Uncertainty over how long the cool snap may run sparked profit taking, though prices remained in positive territory albeit in choppy trading.

Demand for natural gas tends to rise at the country's thermal power plants as temperatures fall, when homes and businesses throttle up on their heaters.

Economic Events:

Time	Cur.	Event	Forecast	Previous
Tuesday, October 15
14:00	GBP	CPI (YoY)	2.60%	2.70%
14:00	GBP	CPI (MoM)	0.30%	0.40%
14:00	GBP	PPI Input (MoM)	-0.40%	-0.20%
14:30	EUR	ZEW Economic Sentiment	59.4	58.6
18:00	USD	NY Empire State Manufacturing Index	7	6.29
19:30	USD	FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
21:00	USD	3-Month Bill Auction		0.04%
21:00	USD	6-Month Bill Auction		0.0

Gold dips as dollar gains on Yellen nomination as Fed chair

2013-10-10T14:23:00.002+05:30

Gold dips as dollar gains on Yellen nomination as Fed chair

Gold prices fell as the dollar rose on news President Barack Obama will name Federal Reserve Vice Chair Janet Yellen to replace Ben Bernanke as head of the U.S. central bank despite her dovish policy leanings that have weakened the greenback in recent years.

Gold futures were likely to find support at USD1,278.20 a troy ounce, the low from Oct. 2, and resistance at USD1,330.10, Tuesday's high.

U.S. President Barack Obama later today is due to announce his decision to name Janet Yellen as the new head of the Federal Reserve.

Yellen's nomination sparked relief buying for the dollar despite her being a noted policy dove seen as sticking with currently loose monetary policies, as she will likely win confirmation in the Senate and ensure a smooth transition of leadership in the U.S. central bank.

Crude prices take a nosedive on bearish supply report

Crude prices dropped on Wednesday after official U.S. data revealed that the country's supplies shot up way more than expected last week.

Oil futures were likely to find support at USD101.06 a barrel, the low from Sept. 30, and resistance at USD104.06 a barrel, Tuesday's high.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 6.8 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 4, well above expectations for an increase of 1.5 million barrels.

Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 370.5 million barrels as of last week.

The report also showed that total motor gasoline inventories increased by 149,000 barrels, below expectations for a gain of 1.3 million barrels.

The numbers sent prices falling on fears supplies are outstripping demand.

Natural gas prices fall as investors lock in profits and sell

Profit taking sent natural gas prices falling from three-week highs on Wednesday after investors locked in gains and sold on weather reports calling for above-normal temperatures across much of the U.S. through the middle of October.

Previous weather forecasts calling for seasonably mild temperatures reversed course and called for above-normal temperatures for a good portion of the central and eastern U.S. through Oct. 21, which sent natural gas prices hitting three-week highs on Tuesday.

Demand for natural gas tends to increase at the country's thermal power plants as temperatures rise, as homes and businesses throttle up on their air conditioners.

Profit-taking ended the rally on Wednesday, however, as seasonably mild temperatures will eventually return.

Natural gas prices tend to slump in the Northern Hemisphere's spring and fall, when mild temperatures cut into the need for air conditioning or heating.

Economic Events:

Time	Cur.	Event	Forecast	Previous
Thursday, October 10
3:30	EUR	ECB President Draghi Speaks
13:30	EUR	ECB Monthly Report
16:30	GBP	BoE QE Total	375B	375B
16:30	GBP	Interest Rate Decision	0.50%	0.50%
18:00	USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	2,900K	2,925K
18:00	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	310K	308K
19:15	USD	FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
20:00	USD	Natural Gas Storage	94B	101B
21:50	EUR	ECB President Draghi Speaks

COMEX Gold futures edge lower with U.S. fiscal woes, stimulus in focus

2013-10-03T23:19:00.000+05:30

COMEX Gold futures edge lower with U.S. fiscal woes, stimulus in focus

Gold futures edged lower during European morning hours on Thursday, giving back some of the previous session’s 2.7% gain, as a U.S. government shutdown entered its third day.

Prices traded in range between USD1, 309.50 a troy ounce, the daily low and a session high of USD1, 317.00 a troy ounce.

Gold futures were likely to find short-term support at USD1,278.20 a troy ounce, Wednesday’s low and the weakest level since August 7 and resistance at USD1,337.80, the high from October 1.

Prices surged on Wednesday as the U.S. dollar weakened amid fears that the government shutdown in the U.S. would curb the economic recovery and prompt the Federal Reserve to maintain its stimulus program for longer.

The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six other major currencies, fell to a nine-month low 79.84 before climbing back to trade at 80.00.

Investors continued to weigh the implications of a protracted U.S. government shutdown.

President Barack Obama met with Republican and Democratic leaders in Congress on Wednesday, although a solution still seemed unlikely.

Markets were also considering how the political deadlock in Washington will impact negotiations to raise the U.S. debt ceiling, which the U.S. Treasury Department has estimated will be reached by October 17.

Moody's Investors Service warned that a failure to raise the debt limit would result in a worse outcome for financial markets than a government shutdown.

Copper fluctuates as investors weigh China PMI, U.S. fiscal woes

Copper futures swung between small gains and losses on Thursday, as investors weighed upbeat data on non-manufacturing activity in China while continuing to monitor political wrangling in Washington.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for December delivery traded at USD3.310 a pound during European morning trade, down 0.15%.

Copper prices traded in a range between USD3.307 a pound, the daily low and a session high of USD3.325 a pound. The December contract settled 1.3% higher at USD3.316 a pound on Wednesday.

Copper prices were likely to find support at USD3.249 a pound, Wednesday’s low and resistance at USD3.339 a pound, the high from September 30.

In China, a government report showed that the nation’s non-manufacturing purchasing managers' index climbed to a six-month high of 55.4 in September from 53.9 in August.

Time	Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Thursday, October 3
17:00	USD	Challenger Job Cuts			50.5K
18:00	USD	Continuing Jobless Claims		2,810K	2,823K
18:00	USD	Initial Jobless Claims		313K	305K
19:15	USD	Bloomberg Consumer Confidence			-28.1
19:30	USD	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index		57.4	58.6
20:00	USD	Natural Gas Storage		94B	87B
22:00	USD	FOMC Member Fisher Speaks
Tentative	USD	Global Semiconductor Sales (MoM)			2.60%

Gold falls on U.S. fiscal and monetary uncertainty

2013-10-01T12:51:00.001+05:30

Gold falls on U.S. fiscal and monetary uncertainty

Gold prices edged lower yesterday as a U.S. government shutdown loomed large in afternoon trading, which repelled investors away from risk-on assets.

The dollar, which normally moves inversely with gold, headed lower earlier, though investors continued to steer clear of the yellow metal and favored the dollar somewhat on sentiments that when fiscal woes subside, the Federal Reserve will be closer to dismantling monetary stimulus programs.

Gold futures were likely to find support at USD1,306.20 a troy ounce, Tuesday's low, and resistance at USD1,375.10, the high from Sept. 19.

The U.S. Congress must approve a spending package by the end of the day to avoid a government shutdown, and waning faith for a last-minute deal steered investors away the dollar as well as from gold and into other safe-haven assets such as the yen earlier.

Congressional Republicans and Democrats continued to spar over President Barack Obama's healthcare law, a bargaining chip to fund a spending package to keep the government running.

Oil falls as U.S. politics limit risk appetite

Oil futures traded lower in the early part of Tuesday’s Asian session as traders backed away from riskier assets on fears of U.S. government shutdown.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures fell 0.08% to USD102.25 per barrel in Asian trading Tuesday. The November contract settled lower by 0.52% at USD102.33 per barrel on Monday.

Oil traders appeared to gloss over some decent U.S. data and focused more political haggling in the U.S. that could result in a government closure.

In U.S. economic news out Monday, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas reported earlier that its general business activity index increased to 12.8 in September from 5.0 in August, beating market calls for the index to remain unchanged.

Time	Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Tuesday, October 1
All Day		China - National Day
6:30	CNY	Chinese Manufacturing PMI	51.1	51.5	51
10:30	INR	HSBC Markit Manufacturing PMI			48.5
13:28	EUR	Manufacturing PMI		51.1	51.1
13:58	GBP	Manufacturing PMI		57.3	57.2
14:30	EUR	Unemployment Rate		12.10%	12.10%
18:25	USD	Redbook (MoM)			-0.40%
18:25	USD	Redbook (YoY)			3.60%
18:28	USD	Manufacturing PMI		52.8	52.8
19:30	USD	Construction Spending (MoM)		0.40%	0.60%
19:30	USD	ISM Manufacturing Index		55	55.7
19:30	USD	ISM Manufacturing Prices		55	54
21:00	USD	4-Week Bill Auction			0.02%

Gold futures traded slightly higher

2013-09-30T10:55:00.001+05:30

Gold futures traded slightly higher during Monday’s Asian session as traders sought out traditional safe-haven plays on fears the U.S. government is headed towards a potentially crippling shutdown.

Last week, the precious metal advanced 0.5%, the second consecutive weekly gain. Gold futures were likely to find support at USD1,306.20 a troy ounce, the low from September 24 and resistance at USD1,366.50, the high from September 20.

On Saturday, the Republican-controlled U.S. House of Representatives passed legislation that would delay the implementation of Obamacare, President Obama’s landmark health care package passed in 2010. The Republican measure also seeks to strip out of Obamacare a controversial tax on medical device manufacturers.

However, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Nevada Democrat, has promised his chamber will veto the House legislation. Reid has been vocal in saying the Senate will not pass any budget stop-gap measure that includes significant alterations to Obamacare.

The specter of a government shutdown sent U.S. stocks falling last week and S&P 500 futures are weak during Monday’s Asian session, indicating markets do not favor a scenario under which the government in the world’s largest economy is not at work. That is also a scenario that risks not raising the U.S. debt ceiling.

Congress must pass a short-term budget by midnight on Monday in order to avoid a government shutdown and in less than three weeks, the debt ceiling must be read. With the U.S. political environment looking contentious, traders are not favoring riskier assets.

Elsewhere, Comex silver for December delivery fell 0.27% to USD21.773 per ounce while copper for December delivery lost 0.06% to USD3.318 per ounce.

Oil tumbles as Chinese data disappoints

Oil futures traded sharply lower during Monday’s Asian session after a critical economic data point out of China surprised to the downside.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for November delivery slid 1.16% to USD101.68 per barrel in Asian trading Monday. The November contract settled lower by 0.16% at USD102.87 per barrel last Friday.

The September reading of the China HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index came in at 50.2, well below the flash reading of 51.2 and estimates calling for 51.2. Readings above 50 indicate expansion.

"The September HSBC China Manufacturing PMI edged up slightly from August. New orders remained flat from the previous month, while external demand improved,"said HSBC China chief economist, Hongbin Qu, in a statement. "Manufacturers restocking process continued but remained relatively slow. Growth is bottoming out on Beijing’s mini-stimulus. We expect continuous policy efforts to sustain the recovery."

Output "expanded for the second successive month in September, though the rate of growth slowed to a fractional pace. Furthermore, growth of new work was unchanged from the previous month and only slight. Nonetheless, new business from overseas increased for the first time in six months (albeit marginally), with panellists citing stronger demand from client bases in Europe and the US," according to HSBC.

Time	Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Monday, September 30
7:15	CNY	Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI	50.2	51.2	51.2
14:00	GBP	BoE Consumer Credit		0.60B	0.60B
14:00	GBP	M4 Money Supply (MoM)		0.70%	0.60%
14:00	GBP	Mortgage Approvals		61K	61K
14:00	GBP	Mortgage Lending		0.90B	0.70B
14:00	GBP	Net Lending to Individuals		1.6B	1.3B
14:30	EUR	Core CPI (YoY)		1.10%	1.10%
14:30	EUR	CPI (YoY)		1.30%	1.30%
17:00	INR	Indian Foreign Debt (USD)			390.00B
19:15	USD	Chicago PMI		54	53
20:00	USD	Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index		5	5
21:00	USD	3-Month Bill Auction			0.02%
21:00	USD	6-Month Bill Auction			0.05%

Gold continues to slide on Federal Reserve policy murkiness

2013-09-25T14:44:00.002+05:30

Gold continues to slide on Federal Reserve policy murkiness

Gold prices slid on Tuesday amid ongoing uncertainty over the fate of the Federal Reserve's USD85 billion in monthly bond purchases, which weaken the dollar to spur recovery, making gold an attractive hedge while such ultra-loose monetary policies remain in effect.

Gold futures were likely to find support at USD1,291.70 a troy ounce, Wednesday's low, and resistance at USD1,331.80, Monday's high.

Gold prices soared last week after the Fed made no changes to its USD85 billion bond-buying program.

Many market participants were expecting the U.S. central bank to trim the total by USD10 billion or more.

Conflicting statements from Federal Reserve officials since then have made it unclear when the U.S. central bank will begin scaling back its bond-buying program, which took its toll on gold, especially amid broad expectations that a start date for tapering could come in December.

On Friday, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said the Fed could decide at its October monetary policy meeting to taper its USD85 billion monthly asset-purchasing program.

The Federal Reserve will hold its next monetary policy meeting Oct. 29-30 but is not due to hold a press conference that day, which left many expecting a decision to taper asset purchases to come in December.

On Monday, however, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley said monetary authorities want to be sure recovery is sustained before dismantling stimulus programs.

Crude prices extend losses amid thawing U.S.-Iran tensions

Crude oil futures extended Monday's losses into Tuesday after tensions between the U.S. and Iran continued to thaw and allayed fears of geopolitical tensions that could flare into conflict in the Middle East and threaten global supply.

At the United Nations General Assembly on Tuesday talk that U.S. President Barack Obama could possibly meet with his Iranian counterpart, Hassan Rouhani, even for just a handshake pushed prices down, especially by doing away with fears that the U.S. might strike Iranian ally Syria for its alleged use of chemical weapons.

Elsewhere, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry is scheduled to meet with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif on Thursday.

The meeting would mark the highest-level encounter between the two countries since 1979.

Thawing tensions between the West and Iran could eventually mean an end to oil sanctions slapped on the Middle East country and boost global supply, which could weigh down prices even further.

Futures hit a 27-month high of USD112.22 a barrel on Aug. 28 amid sentiments that the U.S. was close to taking military action against Syria for its alleged use of chemical weapons against civilians.

Reports that Libyan oil production is on the rise after protesters reopened access to facilities late last week sent oil prices falling as well.

Natural gas prices tumble as milder weather settles in over U.S.

Natural gas prices fell on Tuesday after updated weather forecasting models called for milder temperatures to continue hovering over much of the U.S. through early October.

Weather forecasting services called for seasonably mild temperatures across much of the eastern U.S., though swathes of above-normal temperatures returning to the central reaches of the country began to curb losses in Tuesday trading.

Demand for natural gas tends to wane at the country's thermal power plants as temperatures fall, as homes and businesses throttle back on their air conditioners, especially in autumn and in spring.

Hot or cold temperatures tend to boost demand for the commodity.

Elsewhere, U.S. supply levels remained in focus. Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 3.299 trillion cubic feet as of last week, 0.5% above the five-year average for the same week and 5.4% below last year's unusually high level.

Early injection estimates for this week’s storage data range from 70 billion cubic feet to 80 billion cubic feet, compared to a 79 billion cubic feet increase during the same week a year earlier.

Economic Events:

Time	Cur.	Event	Forecast	Previous
Wednesday, September 25
14:00	GBP	Business Investment (QoQ)	0.90%	0.90%
15:30	GBP	CBI Distributive Trades Survey	24	27
16:30	USD	MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)		11.20%
18:00	USD	Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM)	1.00%	-0.80%
18:00	USD	Durable Goods Orders (MoM)	0.20%	-7.40%
19:30	USD	New Home Sales (MoM)	7.90%	-13.40%
19:30	USD	New Home Sales	420K	394K
20:00	USD	Crude Oil Inventories	-1.129M	-4.368M
20:00	USD	EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks	-0.593M	-1.079M
20:00	USD	Gasoline Inventories	0.143M	-1.627M
22:30	USD	5-Year Note Auction		1.62%

Gold futures extend losses from Friday as Fed taper outlook weighs

2013-09-23T19:33:00.000+05:30

Gold futures extend losses from Friday as Fed taper outlook weighs

Gold futures were lower during European morning hours on Monday, extending sharp losses from Friday, as traders reassessed their expectations regarding the duration of the Federal Reserve’s bond-buying program.

Gold prices fell by as much as 1.4% earlier in the day to hit a session low of USD1, 313.10 a troy ounce, the weakest level since September 18. The December contract ended 2.7% lower on Friday to settle at USD1, 332.50 a troy ounce.

Silver futures decline with Fed stimulus outlook in focus

Silver futures declined on Monday, as uncertainty over the direction of Federal Reserve policy weighed, following last week’s surprise decision to announce no reduction to its USD85 billion-a-month stimulus program.

Silver prices fell by as much as 2.7% earlier in the day to hit a session low of USD21.32 a troy ounce, the weakest level since September 18. The December contract ended down 5.85% at USD21.92 a troy ounce on Friday.

Silver prices plunged on Friday after St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said that the Fed’s decision not to taper its stimulus program in September was “close” and did not rule out a “small” reduction in bond purchases in October.

Copper futures lower as traders react to global manufacturing data

Copper futures were lower on Monday, as traders digested a series of manufacturing reports out of China and the euro zone in an attempt to gauge the strength of the global economy.

Manufacturing numbers are used as indicators for demand growth because of its widespread uses across industries.

Crude oil futures edge lower as traders shrug off upbeat China PMI

Crude oil futures edged lower to trade at the weakest level in four-weeks on Monday, as market players shrugged off the release of upbeat Chinese manufacturing data and continued to focus on receding concerns over a disruption to supplies from the Middle East.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in November traded at USD104.33 a barrel during European morning trade, down 0.4%.

Gold rallies after Summers Withdraws from Fed consideration

2013-09-16T10:56:00.002+05:30

Gold rallies after Summers Withdraws from Fed consideration

Gold futures soared in the early part of Monday’s session on news that former U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers has withdrawn from consideration to be the next chairman of the Federal Reserve.
Last week, gold futures slid 4.7% in the worst weekly loss since June as traders sold the yellow metal in anticipation that the Fed will make an official announcement of tapering to its USD85 billion-per-month quantitative easing program when it concludes a two-day meeting on Thursday Sept. 18.

Gold got some relief Friday after after the Commerce Department said U.S. retail sales rose 0.2% in in August, below expectations for a 0.4% increase.

A separate report showed that the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to a five month low of 76.8, from a final reading of 82.1 in August.

Gold rallied in Asia Monday after various U.S. media agencies reported Summers informed President Barack Obama that he no longer wants to be considered for the Fed’s top post. There is speculation that Summers was aware he would have difficulty being confirmed by the Senate even if nominated.

Crude prices fall as Syria fears wane, U.S. data disappoint

Crude oil futures fell on Friday as fears the U.S. may launch military strikes against Syria began to fade as the possibility of a diplomatic solution to the impasse rose, while soft U.S. consumer sentiment numbers pushed down prices as well.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov held a fresh round of talks on Friday to discuss ways to disarm Syria of its chemical weapons, and while the U.S. says military action is still possible, energy markets concluded such campaigns are less likely.

Syria has agreed to hand over its chemical weapons cache to international control at Russia's request.

Oil prices have shot up during the crisis amid fears a U.S. strike on Syria will engulf the oil-rich Middle East and threaten global supply.

Natural gas extends gains on bullish U.S. supply data

Natural gas prices extended Thursday's gains into Friday after official U.S. inventory data revealed the country's stockpiles rose less than expected last week.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report on Thursday that natural gas storage in the U.S. in the week ended Sept. 6 rose by 65 billion cubic feet, below market expectations for an increase of 66 billion cubic feet.

Inventories increased by 27 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change for the week is a build of 62 billion cubic feet.

Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 3.253 trillion cubic feet as of last week. Stocks were 172 billion cubic feet less than last year at this time and 46 billion cubic feet above the five-year average of 3.207 trillion cubic feet for this time of year.

The report showed that in the East Region, stocks were 114 billion cubic feet below the five-year average, following net injections of 49 billion cubic feet.

Stocks in the Producing Region were 106 billion cubic feet above the five-year average of 993 billion cubic feet after a net injection of 14 billion cubic feet.

Investors also kept a wary eye Tropical Storm Ingrid, which formed in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico though it was poised to make landfall in Mexico.

Time	Cur.	Event	Forecast	Previous
Monday, September 16
12:00	INR	Indian WPI (YoY)	5.80%	5.79%
13:30	EUR	ECB President Draghi Speaks
14:30	EUR	Core CPI (YoY)	1.10%	1.10%
14:30	EUR	CPI (YoY)	1.30%	1.30%
14:30	EUR	CPI (MoM)	0.10%	-0.50%
14:30	EUR	Labor Cost Index (YoY)		1.60%
18:00	USD	NY Empire State Manufacturing Index	9.2	8.24
18:45	USD	Capacity Utilization Rate	77.80%	77.60%
18:45	USD	Industrial Production (MoM)	0.40%	0.00%
21:00	USD	3-Month Bill Auction		0.02%
21:00	USD	6-Month Bill Auction		0.04%

Gold prices drop as markets brace for Fed tapering

2013-09-13T10:23:00.000+05:30

Gold prices drop as markets brace for Fed tapering

Gold prices dropped on Thursday after investors took up positions on expectations that the Federal Reserve next week will announce plans to begin tapering its monthly USD85 billion asset-purchasing program.

Gold futures were likely to find support at USD1,315.40 a troy ounce, the low from Aug. 14, and resistance at USD1,416.30, Tuesday's high.

Consensus began to build on Thursday that the Federal Reserve will announce plans to begin tapering its monthly USD85 billion asset-purchasing program at its Sept. 17-18 policy meeting, especially on the coattails of improving data out of the U.S. labor market hitting the wire earlier.

The Department of Labor said earlier that the number of individuals filing for initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell by 31,000 to 292,000 from 323,000 in the previous week.

Analysts were expecting the number to rise by 7,000 to 330,000, though the report said the decline was largely due to two states not processing all of their claims because of computer upgrades.

Crude prices rise as U.S., Russian hold talks on Syria

Crude oil futures rose on Thursday amid uncertainty over whether diplomatic efforts between the U.S. and Russia will reduce the likelihood Washington hits Syria with military strikes.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry is due to meet with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov in Geneva later to discuss terms for Syria to surrender its chemical weapons.

Oil rose on concerns talks may hit snags and hike the chances of U.S.-led limited military strikes against Syria, which energy investors fear would engulf the broader oil-rich Middle East and threaten global supply,

Global demand forecasts boosted oil prices as well.

In its monthly report, the International Energy Agency said that global oil demand is forecast to rise by 1.1 million barrels a day next year, “as the underlying economic situation continues to improve.”

The IEA added that oil supplies from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries fell by 260,000 barrels to 30.51 million barrels per day in August, due to declining output from Libya.

Improving data out of the U.S. labor market supported prices as well by painting a picture of an improving U.S. economy that will likely demand more fuel and energy going forward.

The Department of Labor said earlier that the number of individuals filing for initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell by 31,000 to 292,000 from 323,000 in the previous week.

Natural gas surges on surprisingly bullish U.S. supply data

Natural gas prices shot up on Thursday after official U.S. inventory data revealed the country's stockpiles rose less than expected last week, while investors kept their eyes an increasingly active Atlantic hurricane season as well.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas futures for delivery in October traded at USD3.651 per million British thermal units during U.S. trading, up 2.34%.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that natural gas storage in the U.S. in the week ended September 6 rose by 65 billion cubic feet, below market expectations for an increase of 66 billion cubic feet.

Inventories increased by 27 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change for the week is a build of 62 billion cubic feet.

Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 3.253 trillion cubic feet as of last week. Stocks were 172 billion cubic feet less than last year at this time and 46 billion cubic feet above the five-year average of 3.207 trillion cubic feet for this time of year.

The report showed that in the East Region, stocks were 114 billion cubic feet below the five-year average, following net injections of 49 billion cubic feet.

Stocks in the Producing Region were 106 billion cubic feet above the five-year average of 993 billion cubic feet after a net injection of 14 billion cubic feet.

Economic Events:

Time	Cur.	Event	Forecast	Previous
Friday, September 13
14:30	EUR	Employment Change (QoQ)	-0.20%	-0.50%
14:30	EUR	Employment Change (YoY)		-1.00%
14:30	EUR	Trade Balance	15.3B	14.9B
18:00	USD	Core PPI (MoM)	0.10%	0.10%
18:00	USD	Core PPI (YoY)	1.30%	1.20%
18:00	USD	Core Retail Sales (MoM)	0.30%	0.50%
18:00	USD	PPI (MoM)	0.20%	0.00%
18:00	USD	PPI (YoY)	1.30%	2.10%
18:00	USD	Retail Sales (MoM)	0.40%	0.20%
19:25	USD	Michigan Consumer Sentiment	82	82.1
19:25	USD	Michigan Inflation Expectations		3.00%
19:30	USD	Business Inventories (MoM)	0.20%	0.00%
20:00	USD	ECRI Weekly Annualized (WoW)		3.90%

Gold prices drop as U.S. holds off on plans to attack Syria

2013-09-12T13:16:00.002+05:30

Gold prices drop as U.S. holds off on plans to attack Syria

Gold prices dropped on Wednesday after the U.S. voiced support for a Russian plan calling on Syria to give up control of its chemical weapons and avoid military conflict.

Gold has served as a safe-haven asset class during the U.S. standoff over Syria.

Gold futures were likely to find support at USD1,351.90 a troy ounce, the low from Aug. 20, and resistance at USD1,416.30, Tuesday's high.

The December contract settled down 1.64% at USD1,364.00 a troy ounce on Tuesday.

U.S. President Barack Obama on Tuesday put on hold plans to attack Syria for its alleged use of chemical weapons in its civil war by asking Congress to put off voting on the matter while the country explores Russia's proposal to end the crisis.

President Obama added his administration would support a Russian plan to take away Syria's chemical weapons cache that would put U.S. military strikes on hold.

Waning fears of military conflict tarnished gold's safe-haven appeal, though monetary uncertainty in the U.S. supported the precious metal.

Doubts persist as to whether the Fed will announce plans to begin tapering its monthly USD85 billion asset-purchasing program at its Sept. 17-18 policy meeting.

Lackluster U.S. economic indicators have many investors concerned the Fed may delay plans to begin scaling back asset purchases to later this year, while others feel a September start date will see very minor tapering that would keep the dollar soft and gold higher, as the two assets trade inversely with one another.

Crude prices gain on bottom fishing after U.S. supply report

Crude oil futures rose on Wednesday after bargain hunters snapped up nicely-priced positions and erased losses stemming from bearish U.S. supply data and a diminishing likelihood of a U.S. attack on Syria.

Oil prices saw downward pressure earlier after U.S. President Barack Obama said his administration would support a Russian plan to seize Syria's chemical weapons and put military strikes on hold, which allayed fears that U.S. attacks would draw the broader Middle East into conflict and threaten global crude supply.

Elsewhere, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 219,000 barrels in the week ended Sept. 6, less than expectations for a decline of 1.5 million barrels.

Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 360.0 million barrels as of last week.

The report also showed that total motor gasoline inventories increased by 1.658 million barrels, confounding expectations for a decline of 1.25 million barrels, which sent crude prices to levels ripe for bottom fishing.

Investors turned their attention to next week's Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting that begins Tuesday, Sept. 17.

Doubts persist as to whether the Fed will announce plans to begin tapering its monthly USD85 billion asset-purchasing program.

Natural gas drops over fears of bearish supply report

Natural gas prices extended Tuesday's losses into Wednesday after investors braced for potentially bearish U.S. supply data to publish on Thursday.

Supply concerns sent prices falling despite weather forecasts calling for above-normal temperatures across much of the eastern half of the U.S.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said most recently that natural gas stockpiles rose by 58 billion cubic feet in the week ending Aug. 30, more than an expected 54 billion increase after a 67 billion rise the previous week.

Market analysts expect this week's storage data to show an increase of 64 billion cubic feet.

The five-year average for the week is a build of 62 billion cubic feet.

Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 3.188 trillion cubic feet as of last week, 1.4% above the five-year average and 6.2% below last year's unusually high level.

Economic Events:

Time	Cur.	Event	Forecast	Previous
Thursday, September 12
13:30	EUR	ECB Monthly Report
14:30	EUR	Industrial Production (MoM)	0.10%	0.70%
14:30	EUR	Industrial Production (YoY)	-0.10%	0.30%
15:05	GBP	10-Year Treasury Gilt Auction		2.58%
17:10	EUR	ECB President Draghi Speaks
17:30	INR	Indian CPI (YoY)	9.60%	9.60%
17:30	INR	Indian Industrial Production (YoY)	-0.80%	-2.20%
17:30	INR	Indian Manufacturing Output (MoM)		-2.20%
18:00	USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	2,960K	2,951K
18:00	USD	Import Price Index (MoM)	0.40%	0.20%
18:00	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	330K	323K
19:15	USD	Bloomberg Consumer Confidence		-32.3
20:00	USD	Natural Gas Storage	66B	58B
22:30	USD	30-Year Bond Auction		3.65%
23:30	USD	Federal Budget Balance	-150.0B	-97.6B

Gold futures decline as Syria fears ease, Fed taper in focus

2013-09-10T19:56:00.004+05:30

Gold futures decline as Syria fears ease, Fed taper in focus

Gold futures declined during European morning hours on Tuesday, as the odds of a U.S. military strike against Syria eased, denting the safe-haven appeal of the precious metal.
Gold futures were likely to find support at USD1,356.00 a troy ounce, the low from August 22 and resistance at USD1,415.00, the high from September 4.
U.S. President Barack Obama said Monday that he would put plans for a military strike against Syria on hold if the country agrees to a Russian proposal to place its chemical weapons under international control.

Silver futures track gold prices lower as Syria fears recede

Silver futures fell sharply on Tuesday, tracking gold prices lower, as concerns over a U.S. military strike against Syria eased.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, silver futures for December delivery traded at USD23.31 a troy ounce during European morning trade, down 1.7%.

Copper futures move lower despite upbeat Chinese data

Copper futures were lower on Tuesday, despite indications that the Chinese economy is strengthening.
China is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for December delivery traded at USD3.257 a pound during European morning trade, down 0.65%.

Crude oil futures fall 1% as Syria strike concerns recede

Crude oil futures fell for the second consecutive day on Tuesday, as the odds of a U.S. military strike against Syria receded, easing concerns over a disruption to supplies.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in October traded at USD108.63 a barrel during European morning trade, down 0.8%.
New York-traded oil futures held in a range between USD108.21 a barrel, the daily low and a session high of USD109.01 a barrel. The October contract settled 0.91% lower at USD109.52 a barrel on Monday.
Oil futures were likely to find support at USD106.55 a barrel, the low from September 3 and resistance at USD110.70 a barrel, the high from September 6.

Time Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
Tuesday, September 10
0:30   USD Consumer Credit 10.44B 12.50B 11.92B
4:31   GBP RICS House Price Balance 40% 40% 37%
11:00   CNY Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 20.30% 20.20% 20.10%
11:00   CNY Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) 10.40% 9.90% 9.70%
11:00   CNY Chinese Retail Sales (YoY) 13.40% 13.20% 13.20%
13:00   INR Indian Trade Balance -10.90B -13.00B -12.27B
13:30   CNY Chinese M2 Money Stock (YoY) 14.70% 14.10% 14.00%
15:05   GBP 30-Year Treasury Gilt Auction 3.74%   3.55%
17:00   USD NFIB Small Business Optimism   94.8 94.1
18:25   USD Redbook (MoM)     0.60%
18:25   USD Redbook (YoY)     4.70%
21:00   USD 4-Week Bill Auction     0.02%
22:30   USD 3-Year Note Auction     0.63%