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OneBet Racing Selections 1st November 2012

2012-11-01T04:13:00.001-07:00

Stratford
Whisky Yankee @ 9/4 (NB)
Peaks Of Fire @ 7/2
True Blue @ 11/4
Polly Peachum @ 11/10 WON
I'm The Decider @ 11/4
Twirling Magnet @ 14/1 (ew)
Boomtown @ 11/8 (NAP) WN

Hereford
Vasco Du Ronceray @1/4 (NAP) WON
Stevie Thunder @13/8
Pericoloso @9/4
Seedless @ EVE (NB)
On the Bridge @7/4 WON
Unwanted Gift @5/2
Cevaro @9/4 WON

Golf tips - Tour Championship: East Lake tips and trends

2012-09-16T03:04:00.001-07:00

For tournament preview and outright tips click here

As I posted my tips a whole 6 days before the off, I am left twiddling my thumbs. Given this, I thought I would look at some trends ahead of the FedEx cup finalé.

My focus is purely upon East Lake since 2001 - as such, we omit the 2001 and 2003 editions of the Tour Championship, which were hosted at Houston GC. Let's see if we can find some pointers which are useful in unpicking the event this week.

Winning scores:
2002: -12
2004: -11
2005: -17
2006: -11
2007: -23 (First FedEx Cup play-offs year, Tiger the winner)
2008: -7 (First year using Bermudagrass greens)
2009: -9
2010: -8
2011: -8

Rank on tour (1 toughest, 47 easiest) : 27th. 18th ranked in 2010 and 15th in 2009.

In 2011, of 35 events that I ranked, the tour Championship was 25th toughest for driving distance (meaning it is relatively easy for players to hit driver), 3rd in driving accuracy (meaning finding the fairways is tough), 21st in GIR (meaning that hitting greens is easier than average, despite tough to hit fairways) and 19th in total putts (meaning the challenge here is not so easy, but not fiendish either)

Best round : 60 (Zach Johnson in Rd3 2007 - finished 2nd overall, 8 shots behind Tiger).

Best opening round by an eventual winner: 62, Bart Bryant 2005. Tiger shot 64 in 2007 in the first FedEx year and Furyk shot a 67 in 2010, the best score since the move to Bermudagrass in 2008.

Poorest opening round by an eventual winner: 73, Phil Mickelson 2009.

Average opening round by eventual winner: 67.7 (average 70 since the switch to bermudagrass in 2008)

Best final round by an eventual winner: 64, Goosen in 2004. In the FedEx cup era, Phil's closing 65 in 2009 is the best closing round.

Poorest final round by an eventual winner: 70, Furyk in 2010. That year, Donald also shot 70, to remain a shot back. Goosen shot 71, to finish 2 shots back. Watney shot 71/74 to sit +5 after the first two rounds and finished 63/67 to storm through to 4th.

Best opening 2 rounds: 127 (Tiger 2007 who opened 64/63 on his way to an 8 stroke victory). Since Bermudagrass in 2008, Scott (2011) and Furyk/Donald (2010) have opened best in 132 strokes.

Best final 2 rounds: 128 Zach Johnson 2007 (60, 68). Watney's 130 strokes over the weekend in 2010 is the best since Bermuda in 2008.

Midway position of eventual winner:

As you can see from the above chart, only once has the winner come from outside the 10 at halfway - Phil, 2009. In 8 of 11 years, a top 4 player has gone on to win the event. 4 times, the halfway leader has won the event.

Interestingly though, the profile is most erratic since the current FedEx/bermudagrass set up began in 2008. Since then, the eventual winner has been 4th, 12th, 1st and 5th at halfway. Furyk was the player who won from a halfway lead and he holds the record for the worst final round score, holding on because the close challengers never quite fired either. The clear inference is that the newly added pressure of FedEx cup honours plays heavily on those who are at the head of the field at halfway. 2007 was the first FedEx year (on Bentgrass then) and Tiger Woods won that year. I think he knew how to handle pressure back then - the fact he was 4 clear after round 2 did him no harm either.....

Midway position of players who go on to finish top 5:

The graph shown goes down to 5th, although it seems (understandably) that the place positions will not go below 4th. Watney in 2010 made the biggest leap from 25th to 4th. That aside, Phil's charge from 12th to 1st in 2009 is the only time since 2008 that a player outside the top 10 has even been in the top 5 come the end. 20 players have placed in the last 4 years; aside from Phil (12th to 1st 2009), Baddeley (10th to T3rd last year) and Curtis (7th to 5th in 2008) we see only players placing from within the top 5 at halfway.

By a distance, this is the strongest trend I have seen so far this season. Truly, it makes a lot of sense to look at players who are already in contention at halfway. I guess this is due a combination of a small field, which readily creates gaps in scoring (as opposed to bunched leaderboards as 70+ players make the weekend) and the fact that so many players have their eye on the potential of a huge prize if they run hot over the weekend. It is difficult to swing free and truly make up ground given these two factors.

So, if punting this weekend, there are some definite trends to follow. Unless you are following a player in the calibre of Phil Mickelson in 2009, a player starting sluggishly is very unlikely to win. Any player not right in the mix at halfway will have quite a task to place come the end. Hope that your player then can start well and then hold his nerve when the pressure is highest. This in part is why I was reluctant to pursue the top 5 in the FedEx standings this week, choosing only 40/1 shot Watney. The pressure will be immense this week. Remember also that of the top 5 Watney is the only player without the Ryder Cup on his mind.

Depending on how things stand, I may be back next week with further thoughts during the event.

Regards

Dave (OneBet)

Golf tips - The Tour Championship Tips and Tournament form guide

2012-09-15T02:06:00.000-07:00

Outright selections
1.5pts EW Jim Furyk at 25/1 (Various)
0.75pts EW Nick Watney at 40/1 (Various)
0.75pt EW Sergio Garcia at 28/1 (Coral, BoyleSports)
0.75pts EW Ryan Moore at 55/1 (Stan James, 50/1 general)

For East Lake facts and figures click here

Hi all

The usual course/tournament form analysis below.

My tournament analysis goes back to 2001 and I analyse in the following way:

Tournament experience, with a maximum 8 points if a player has played 6 or more times
Tournament history, with a maximum 10 points if a player has ever won the event, with further increments down to down to 2 points for any top 25.
Tournament form in 2012, 2011 and 2010, with up to 4 points available for each year.
Course experience points - As per tournament form, but for the specific course in use. Aside from 2001 and 2003, East Lake has been the host course.
There are 3 factors which dilute the effectiveness of going back to 2001 for course form

Champions GC in Houston was the host course in 2001/2003, not East Lake

Putting surfaces changed from Bentgrass to Bermudagreass in 2008

The Tour Championship only became the FedEx cup finale (its current guise) in 2007.

Despite these factors, it makes every sense to consider a longer course and tournament history; players who had a liking for the layout in 2006 will have a liking in 2012, even if they may find the pressure and putting surfaces different to pre FedEx cup days.

As we are looking at course form in years gone by, not all in the field make the list due to 2012 being their debut year. However, 23 out of 30 possible entrants do tee up, further confirming the quality of the field that assembles this week. Of the first-timers that do tee up this week, the likes of Robert Garrigus and a certain Rory McIlroy can not be ignored.

So, looking purely at course and history form, with a ranking system that aims to differentiate between players who do consistently well and those who don't (either one hit wonders or those consistent performers who do not really challenge), we get the following results, with further analysis below the table:

As it is the tour finale, I am going to summarise the merits of all players in the field for my tournament analysis in order of my ranking.

Tournament rank 1: Phil Mickelson, 12/1 general. 4th in FedEx standings

After 4 top 4 finishes in 6 events, including victory at the AT&T at Pebble and a dreadful bounce from a thin piece of temporary stand arguably costing him the Masters, Phil rather drifted away from the business end of tournament golf..........until the FedEx cup play-offs. A charging 4th at the Deutsche and 2nd at the BMW having co-led through 54 holes tells us Phil is back. And, he is number 1 ranked here on tournament form too. Phil was 5th here back in 2002 and, since 2007 when this became the FedEx cup climax and Bermuda grass greens arrived a year later, he has been a factor. 3rd in 2008, 1st in 2009 and 10th in 2011 tells you Phil may be hard to keep away from the sharp end next week. There are two ways of looking at recent results here. Phil was also 22nd in 2010. In the last two years then, Phil has "only" been 22nd and 10th in a 30 man field. 12/1 is a little tough to be on side with; 2 hot tournaments after a bleak mid-season makes 3/1 the place marginal, even in such a limited field,

Tournament rank 2: Jim Furyk 25/1 general. 18th in FedEx cup standings.

Now, this guy is interesting. Furyk did not make 2011 here, which is probably the only thing that has him out of top spot in the tournament ranks. Furyk finished 8th and 2nd here before the FedEx cup event switch in 2007. 11th in 2007 was only OK, but since the switch to Bentgrass in 2008, Furyk has been 6th and 7th before landing the whole thing by winning in 2010. It will take a stunning sequence of events for him to land the overall FedEx cup prize this time, but winning the tournament itself is not such a leap of faith. Furyk warms up nicely at this time of year. 2010 - 15th at the BMW and then 1st at the Tour Championship. 2011: 6th at the Deutsche and 22nd at the BMW. This year : 13th at the Deutsche and 9th at the BMW. I have left Furyk alone since his narrow failure at the US Open, but he makes my team again here.

Tournament rank 3: Luike Donald 20/1 general (22/1 Coral). 15th in FedEx cup standings

At the head of World golf, Rory McIlroy has steamed off in to the distance in terms of ranking, with Woods and Westwood also coming to the fore as the PGA FedEx Cup race nears its finale. Luke Donald, however, has been somewhat left behind. Last year, Donald finished 18th, 3rd, 4th and 3rd in the 4 play-off events. The year before, 15th, 2nd, 37th and 2nd. 10th, 26th and 28th in the first 3 events this year suggests his game is a little off. It is actually with the putter that Donald is surprisingly most off his game. He was top 20 for total putts in all play-off events last year, but nothing better than 27th so far this year. His scrambling was poor at the BMW too. Donald has been 3rd and 2nd last 2 years here and on the surface, 20/1 in a 30 man field looks attractive. However, there are too many players hitting better form for him to be taken here.

Tournament rank 4: Hunter Mahan 66/1 Various (70/1 SportingBet). 23rd in fedEx cup.

Barring injury, it was almost unthinkable that Hunter Mahan would have missed the Ryder Cup and found himself 70/1 and 23rd in the FedEx cup race. However, the impressive winner of the Shell Houston and WGC Matchplay has totally fallen away in the remainder of the year. In 15 events post Shell Houston, 1 top 10 betrays the quality of this golfer. 2nd last year and 5th in 2007, Mahan can clearly play this track. We are getting over 15/1 a place,but I can leave him even at that price. Mahan is not hitting his irons close and is not making birdies. I can't back that he turns that around here.

Tournament rank 5: Adam Scott 18/1 general. 21st in FedEx cup.

Aside from 6th here last year, Scott won before the format change in 2006. He is in good form too, with 6th and 7th in his last two events. My big reservation with Scott is whether he will putt well enough to land the prize here. Last year's top 5 were 1st, 10th, 3rd, 2nd and 8th in total putts. Scott putted a lot better last week, but may be found just short come next Sunday..

Tournament rank 6: Tiger Woods 6/1 Coral, 11/2 in other places. 2nd in FedEx cup

9 top 10s in 17 events, including 3 wins, Tiger is back isn't he? Well, nearly. And, Rory has come along and swept him aside in recent weeks. Tiger has won 3 times this year on courses where he has had proven success in the past. He only ranks 6th this year due to not making it in 2010 and 2011. His 4 results before that here? 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 2nd. At a general 11/2, the place position just about covers the win part of the bet and many will think that is compelling enough to back each way - surely Woods will not be too far away. Woods is scrambling and putting well, which will be useful here. He is also striking his mid to long range irons beautifully when in position. I just can't quite have him at such short odds right now. Woods is in the pressure zone of knowing a win lands him the whole FedEx cup. The top 5 will be under a lot of pressure and, while Woods has more winning knowledge than all others, he has been a little susceptible in the heat of battle this year when it comes to the big events.

Brief summaries for the rest of the field (apart from my other selections, who I need to justify)

Tournament rank 7: Zach Johnson, 33/1 general. 9th in FedEx cup.
Out of form recently, until a strong first three rounds last week. 2nd 2007 (Bentgrass) and 9th last year, plus Georgia affinity confirmed with his Masters win. A pass for me, although the place terms hold some appeal.

Tournament rank T8: Nick Watney, 40/1 general. 3rd in FedEx cup.

A lot of pressure for the top 5 entering the event. However, Watney has some interesting hidden claims here. When Furyk won with -8 in 2010, Watney played the weekend in -10 to place 4th. He can win this event if he hooks up. Being blown away at the PGA aside, Watney has 9 straight top 45s, 7 of which are top 21 finishes. He won two events ago and can be forgiven a bit of a mental snooze in the next two events. Watney likes Bermuda and his caddy reads the surfaces particularly well. Watney is very tempting at the odds given. I am going to play him at reduced stakes - the pressure of knowing it is all in his hands leaves me a little hesitant.

Tournament rank T8: Ernie Els, 50/1 general. 22nd in FedEx Cup.

6 events and nothing better than 26th since the Open, Els is a huge leap of faith. 7th 2010, 9th 2009 and 6th 2008 shows Els may choose here to improve. Consider match bets where he may be 6/4 or worse depending on his opponent.

Tournament rank 10: Steve Stricker. 33/1 general. 13th in Fedex Cup.

6th is Stricker's best finish here. Recent form none too clever either, although he is finding greens better than most.. A pass for me - Watney's 40s and Furyk's 25s are eminently better value.

Tournament rank 11: Sergio Garcia, 28/1 available, 25s general. 12th in FedEx Cup..

No appearances here since 2008, however 2nd that year and 4th the year before tells you Sergio likes this place. Sergio won 3 starts ago on BermudaGrass in landing the Wyndham. He also led the field for total putts at WGC Cadillac on Bermuda earlier this year. Sergio is driving well and hitting greens better than most. If he gets his putting groove back on Bermuda at a course where he has placed last two times he has played it, he should be a major player in this event. At 12th in the FedEx cup, he may just land the whole thing with a win. Importantly for Sergio, he may not realise how close he is to landing the FedEx cup until he walks off the course, as the permutations tend to switch often in this event. Sergio's temperament in strokeplay golf's biggest events is questionable, so he is backable from off the pace in the FedEx cup. I am going to have a reduced play on Sergio this week, who will hopefully be ready to dial in ahead of the Ryder Cup.

Tournament rank T12: Bo Van Petl, 35/1 available, 33/1 general. 19th in FedEx cup.

Bo always appeals because he almost nearly always plays better than his odds suggest. However, he so often just misses even a place. 9th here last year and 10th last week. I just overlook him here, due to the preference for Sergio/Watney/Furyk in this sort of price band.

Tournament rank T12: John Senden, 80/1 SkyBet, 661 various. 29th in FedEx cup

10th in 2009 is about all we have for Senden. Poor result last week. General indifferent putting means I can't back him here, even at such odds.

Tournament rank 14: Dustin Johnson, 16/1 general. 7th in FedEx cup.

3 poor finishes last 3 years here, but 3rd, 4th and 6th in his last 3 events. Johnson will have his backers, but not for me at the price, given abject course form. As Johnson has won in each of the last two years during the FedEx cup, pressure will have been high at East Lake. It still is, as he sits 7th in the standings. A swerve for me.

Tournament rank T15: Bubba Watson, 33/1 general. 11th in FedEx Cup

3 attempts, nothing better than 17th. Led the field for scoring on Sunday in the BMW to rocket up to 12th overall. Won in Georgia at the Masters this year too of course. Improved irons and scrambling last time out. Could surprise a few, but not the best midfielder to pick from for me.

Tournament rank T15: Justin Rose, 33/1 general. 24th in FedEx cup.

3 appearances, with only 11th back in 2007 as a best result. Better form at the BMW than recent efforts. Irons really back on song last week as he led the field in GIR. However, putting stats remain pretty dire. No better than 46th for strokes gained putting in 3 play-off events. Avoid.

Tournament rank T17: Jason Dufner, 25/1 general. 10th in FedEx cup.

13th and 19th here in 2 previous events is OK. 2 good rounds out of 4 in the last 3 events. If he puts it together, he contends again as he has for much of the season. Dufner's first tour win (Zurich, this year) was on Bermuda and he was 2nd at halfway in the Masters, also at Georgia. I can't back him this week, but he could get it done.

Tournament rank T17: Matt Kuchar, 50/1 general. 16th in Fed Ex cup.

2 poor finishes here in the last 2 years and a very poor play-off sequence to date. 54th last week, despite 2nd in strokes gained putting and good scrambling stats. Irons need to improve a lot for him to feature.

Tournament rank 19th: Ryan Moore, 50/1 general. 28th in fed ex cup.

9th 2010 in his only appearance - interesting. Moore has finished 24th, 10th and 10th in the play-offs to date to make East Lake this week having been way off the pace coming in. Good iron play, 4th in proximity to the hole last week and performing well on and around the green, Moore is tempting at the price. Moore's 9th here in 2010 came off 3rd at the BMW, so can he can ride two hot rounds in the play-offs. Prior to the play-offs, Moore has had 4 top 10s, 3 of which came in a run of 4 events. I am going to take him to ride the momentum once more and feature, at what are tasty odds for one of the very best form players coming in.

Tournament rank 20th: Brandt Snedeker, 401 general, 5th in FedEx cup

Big pressure on Snedeker this week, knowing a win means 11.4m US dollars. 16th and 29th in two tries here is not overly encouraging either. Also, having placed 2nd and 6th in the first 2 play-off events, Snedeker produced 4 average to poor rounds at TPC Boston last time. give me Watney of the 40/1 shots instead please.

Tournament rank T21st: Carl Pettersson, 75/1 Stan James, 66/1 general. 17th in FedEx cup.

21st in 2008 and 16th in 2006 here are the only indicators we have, although Pettersson is a better player now of course. However, he arrives having done nothing since his fine PGA and subsequent Wyndham showing. I am going to leave Pettersson, although he is close to being backed purely on his price.

Tournament rank T21st : Keegan Bradley, 40/1 general. 14th in FedEx cup.

A useful 11th in his maiden appearance last year, Bradley has been 1st (Bridgestone), 3rd (PGA defence) and 13th (Deutsche) in the last 5 events. Useful form, although he had a poor BMW last time out. Will need to putt a lot better than he did last time out to feature.

Tournament rank T21st : Webb Simpson, 45/1 available 40/1 general. 25th in FedEx cup.

Webb entered last season's Tour Championship 1st in the FedEx cup standings. Not so this time. Webb's debut last year, perhaps understandably, was underwhelming. Webb swapped good irons for good putting last time out. If he can put it together, he may feature. However, it is a leap of faith that 40/1 does not justify.

The rookies

Rory - Obvious favourite here. Can he really win 3 straight, hold his FedEx lead and land a huge prize? Maybe, but I can't take him at 5/1 given that and his debut here. He has arguably the best chance, but enough arguments for me to want 8s.

Lee Westwood - 16s and in good form. 8th in the race, arguably his biggest title - the FedEx cup - may well be landed if he were to win here. I tend to look for Westwood when it is Bentgrass greens in the States. Also, last time out, he hardly troubled McIlroy in meandering to T2nd with the equally languid Mickelson. If he has a poor 1st round, I might just back him EW to come from off the pace and get in the mix, but I can't have him outright.

Louis Oosthuizen - 25s and with a great chance to win the whole thing if he prevails, winning is quite a proposition for the debutant. Like Westwood, I struggle to trust Oosthuizen on Bermuda and, given all other factors, he is overlooked.

Robert Garrigus - 66s is too tight. Garrigus did well to get here and is a streaky type, but I think too many of the World's top players will get between him and a place this week.

Rickie Fowler - 75/1 is available for Rickie in this 30 man field. Sounds good on a purely price basis. However, 8 events coming in with only 1 top 30 (24th Barclays) makes him unbackable on debut.

John Huh - In three of the last 4 events, Hiuh has had a very strong Friday and Sunday, spoiled by a fairly abject Thursday and Saturday. Huh is dismissed at 100/1. May be worth a second look if his 1st round is useful.

Scott Piercy - 100/1 and last to scrape in at 30th in the FedEx cup race, Piercy has lost his game during the play-offs. the only bright spot was a good last round at the BMW last time out. I can't back him this week.

Good luck!

Dave (OneBet)

Golf Tips - KLM Open outright selections

2012-09-05T18:17:00.001-07:00

1pt EW Lee Slattery at 100/1 (Various)
0.5pt EW Tommy Fleetwood at 175/1 (Bet365)
1.5pt EW Anders Hansen at 33/1 (Various)
1pt EW Romain Wattel at 35/1 (Stan James 888 Sport)

Golf tips - BMW Championship outright selections

2012-09-05T17:26:00.000-07:00

BMW Championship Selections
1pt EW Louis Oosthuizen at 25/1 (Various)
2pt EW Jason Dufner at 25/1 (Various)
0.75pt EW Ryan Moore 1st round leader at 66/1 (Various)

Short weeks are not good fun when trying to pull these tips together..........

No point in writing a novel this week. So, simply, we arrive at a course with precious little course form to go on. The course is plenty long enough, but the interesting aspect for me is the relatively small greens here. The rough does not seem to be the most penal, but ball strikers who can dial in with their approach shots are greatly desired this week. Scrambling will be more of a factor this week, as players will be hitting plenty of long irons in to small targets and greens will inevitably be missed.

So, to my thoughts/selections

Rory is rejected for this reason. Rory's last 5 wins have been followed by 103rd, 51st, 3rd, 35th and 26th after round 1 of the following tournament 3rd was in Dubai, an event he had to win to have a chance of catching Luke Donald in the race - he eventually finished 11th, his first non-top 6 in 5 events. So, I personally am going to be brave and lay Rory on the exchanges and hope he meanders again on Thursday. I also think the high drama of watching anxiously as Louis Oosthuizen just missed his putt to force a play-off may leave him slightly flat coming in here. Finally, good scrambling and great putting stats last week compensated for a pretty average approach game (37th in GIR, 30th in proximity to the hole). I am not convinced he will get away with less than perfect irons this week, although his high, long and towering irons will be well suited to this challenge if he is dialled in.

Tiger is interesting, because his form last week ticks boxes for my photo fit golfer this week. 4th in driving distance and a useful enough 20th in accuracy, 2nd in greens, 12th in strokes gained putting and 2nd in scrambling is highly compelling stuff from Tiger. Tiger was also 19th in proximity to the hole last week, although approaches over 200 yards (62nd) and over 100 yards (28th) is not ideal for the lengthy Crooked Stick this week. Tiger has gone toe to toe with Rory recently at the PGA and here and Rory has won both times. However, Tiger was closing in last time out rather than seeing Rory waltz off in to the distance. I am really struggling to leave Tiger alone, but just will, because I think the price is probably about fair. My slight nagging doubt is that he was heavily involved in the late Monday finish and has not yet had two really dialled in weeks with his approach game all year. After a top 10 GIR performance, he has been no better than 23rd the following week in that stat. I just leave him here.

Tiger and Rory, when paired together at the Barclays, failed to really sparkle. Reason if you are wavering to exercise caution I feel.

Jason Dufner did not putt well enough to win last week and then did not avoid double and triple bogeys enough over the weekend to threaten a place (92nd in bogey avoidance last week). But..........he was 5th in proximity to the hole, 5th in approaches over 200 yards and 11th in greens hit as well as 7th in scrambling. So, hidden in among the headline stats is a player who should find he can fire at Crooked Stick. Dufner is holding steady at 25s and is now joint 6th favourite. It seems the market has lost faith in Dufner more than I have. Sorry folks, but he makes my team again.

I have ignored my system for Rory and it is telling me that if not Rory, I should back Oosthuizen. There is still some 25s out there and Louis was sensational approaching the green and in putting. Louis showed when winning in Malaysia straight after the Masters that he can dust himself down and perform the following week. Oosthuizen is a spells players, who gets hot for a time before then gently ebbing away from the sharp end. So, I am going to back that the run continues. In a 70 man field, several of whom will have a pressure to make the Tour Championship final event when it comes to the final round, Louis will be freer than most to just go for the prize. Let's play him here.

My final play this week is on Ryan Moore. In 2010, Moore dialled in for the FedExCup climax, lying 2nd after day 1 of this event and finishing 3rd, before following up with 9th at East Lake. In 2011, Moore was 16th in this event, which was not quite enough to qualify for East Lake. Moore sits 35th in the FedEx cup race and needs to follow up his strong 10th last week with another good display to make East Lake. 11th in GIR last week and 3rd in proximity to the hole, Moore's success or otherwise will depend on whether his scrambling can improve this week. 80/1 is a good price to find out whether he does or not. My final question is whether outright or 1st round leader is the best way to go. Since start 2010, he has had 8 top 5s. In the same period 10 times top 5 after round 1, one of which (Well Fargo this year) was as 1st round leader. Crooked Stick may be a little long for Moore over 4 days I fancy. I am going to play him 1st round leader only here.

Regards

Dave (OneBet)

Omega European Masters Outright selections

2012-08-29T06:57:00.000-07:00

Outright selections
1pt EW Lee Slattery at 150/1 (Various)
1pt EW Gregory Bourdy at 66/1 (Various)
1pt EW Anders Hansen at 40/1 (Various)
1pt EW Pablo Larrazabal at 50/1 (Various)
1pt EW Brett Rumford at 55/1 (Stan James, 50/1 various)

Golf tips - Deutsche Bank Championship Outright selections

2012-08-28T06:30:00.000-07:00

Outright selections
2pts EW Luke Donald at 18/1 (victor Chandler)
1.5pts EW Jason Dufner at 20/1 (Various)
1pt EW Geoff Ogilvy at 50/1 (Various)
1pt EW Jason Day at 50/1 (Various)

Hi all

This started as my tournament form guide and has morphed in to my formal preview for the event after it grew out of all proportion. The claims of the leading protagonists on a course form basis are compelling enough for me to go with it. I have done my usual system work and no big outsiders are showing up strongly enough this week. So, here it is. Enjoy (make a nice hot drink and get comfortable before starting)

The usual course/tournament form analysis below.

My course analysis goes back to 2003 and I analyse in the following way:

Tournament experience, with a maximum 8 points if a player has played 6 or more times
Tournament history, with a maximum 10 points if a player has ever won the event, with further increments down to down to 2 points for any top 25.
Tournament form in 2012, 2011 and 2010, with up to 4 points available for each year.
Course experience points - As per tournament form, but for the specific course in use. In reality, this is not a factor here as TPC Boston has been the host since this event first played in 2003. Although the tournament has only been in its current guise since 2007, TPC Boston's permanent position as tournament host makes it worthwhile going back to 2003 for indicators.

As we are looking at course form in years gone by, not all in the field make the list due to 2012 being their debut year.

First, a general comment. This event is stacked with players who have thrived over the years on this course. TPC Boston seems to reward classy players, who can get it done around the greens. No surprise then to see the likes of Stricker, Snedeker, Ogilvy and Donald near the top given this.

So to the individual players. Steve Stricker is ranked 1 here, due to an excellent overall record. Before a surprisingly average 42nd last year, Stricker had finished 9th, 1st, 13th 9th and 7th in the 5 years prior; 4 of those five years (2007-2010) were results gained in the current play-offs format too, of course. Stricker arrives here in good form too. I spent some time talking about his chances last week, before a 54th placed finish somewhat ended the momentum. I am not overly concerned by that finish. It was a tough course and a number of great putters had a hard time on the greens over the weekend in particular. Stricker was 4th in approaches from under 100 yards, 15th in proximity to the hole and 12th in approaches from over 200 yards. Clearly, he is still striking the ball very nicely. It was actually in his around the green game that he struggled. That should not remain for long and the man with a great record around here should go well again. Motivation should not be a factor either. Stricker sits 10th in the Ryder cup standings and will want to try and make a definite statement to DLIII ahead of his wildcard picks being made. A 2nd indifferent week will be very bad timing for Stricker, although he must have a great chance of inclusion even if this does happen. I just can leave him out again this week. Again, I am a little nervous, but I want to see more than 28/1 for a player I do not think has great win claims right now.

Perhaps (definitely) surprisingly, Charley Hoffman ranks 2nd. His win in 2010 is an obvious reason he ranks well, but Hoffman has been in the top 33 in each of the last 4 years showing he can play the course well. I do not think that he merits the 2nd ranking here, especially when you consider the merits of some of the guys below. My system ranks are based upon set criteria, which sometimes throws out oddities such as this. Before I go on though, let's look to what extent I think Hoffman might shock the field and challenge again this year. I don't. 4 MCs coming in to this event is hardly a ringing endorsement of his chances. In finishing 31st when defending last year, Hoffman had placed 10th at the Barclays and 37th and 25th in two of the previous 4 events. In winning in 2010, Hoffman's previous 8 events read 25-27-41-7-4-83-10-27. He is not anywhere near that form and I do not see a challenge here. Hoffman has really been struggling with the flatstick, ranking 94th or worse in his last 4 events for putts per round. This tournament demands that you putt well and, despite some decent tee to green stats for accuracy (Barclays aside) recently, I feel he has far too much to find.

OK, back to the big boys. 1st and 2nd in the first two years of this event (2003 and 2004, in the old format) and 5th and 8th last two years, Adam Scott has a great chance of going well again here. I have a slight mental block in trusting Adam Scott, but I am becoming less ardent about it. In 13 events this year, Scott has 8 top 15 finishes, but only 2 top 5s. One of those should have been a British Open win of course and his form has been only OK since. My problem with Scott is that he is always liable to have a mental snooze for a day or two in an event and that is often costly in a top class field. Obviously, Scott was outstanding for 68 holes at Lytham, but in every event this year he has posted a score that has been the 44th or worse best round in the field on one of the 4 days. It is tough to win when you do that. There in a nutshell is my issue. In 2010, Scott meandered on days 1 and 2, but then produced a great weekend to place. Last year, Scott started well and then really fell away in finishing 8th. There is no doubt he can, but there is plenty of evidence that he will not. Scott is contracting in the market and I have to leave him at prices of around 25s this week.

Geoff Ogilvy is very interesting. He is generally 50s, but that will probably not last as people realise his record here. Since this event gained an increased importance in 2007 and became a play-off event Ogilvy has finished (2007 first) 6-72-7-2-25. That is compelling form. Ogilvy is simmering in current form too and threatening to start performing again right at the head of tournaments. Ogilvy has 10 top 30s in 13 events, but nothing better than 9th. If you see a top 20 market and have nothing to do with the wheelbarrow of cash sat outside your house, you could do worse. Slightly more practically, the Spreadex finishing position market certainly is worthy of consideration when available. I think the reason Ogilvy is not quite there results wise is because his putting is not where he would like it at the moment. 38th in strokes gained putting last week was decent, however, as was 20th in birdie or better. Ogilvy could just score big this week. I think 50s is value.

Jason Day frustrated me last week. We backed him at 80/1 and he showed me that I wasn't crazy to do so. After meandering at +2, Day rallied to finish -1 after day 1 and improved to -2 at halfway, only 5 from the lead. His tournament ended on day 3 with something of a horror round,but he rallied to produce the best round of the day on Sunday. The omens remain good, but can we play Day again here now he is 50s? Day has played here 4 times, finishing 50th, 19th, 2nd and 3rd. Clearly he has a strong affinity with the course. We are again on Bentgrass this week, which is a tick in the box for Day too. Day has not had as good a year this year, but it is a sign of how good a player he is that he has 4 top 10s to date in 2012. Where I believe Day will feel confident this week is that he can get away with less than stellar driving accuracy a lot more this week than he did last. Last week, 95th in driving accuracy played a big part in 97th GIR. However, Day was 15th in greens hit at the Deutsche last year despite only sitting 82nd in DA. What did seem to be in order last week was Day's putting, so if he can "get away" with a couple of less than perfect drives, he may well feature here. Day was 9th in birdie or better last week and 3rd in approaches over 100 yards. So, he is striking his irons well and rolling the putts nicely too. OK, the Aussie charge continues. He makes my team.

Tiger Woods in 7 appearances has a 1st, two 2nds, 7th and 11th twice. But, Tiger is a tough player to get right at the moment. There is much talk of his weekend deceleration and last week is the latest in a lengthening line of such examples. My main problem with Woods is linked to that. Since his full field comeback win at the Arnold Palmer in March, Woods has had 6 bad weekends. The tournaments? The Masters, The Players, The US Open, The British Open, The PGA and the Barclays. Apart from WGC Bridgestone, where Woods came from deep to make the top 10, he has failed in the 6 biggest events he has played in since April over the weekend. I have two other issues also. First, Tiger's stats were just OK last week. Unlike Jason Day, there is no feeling that he just needs a tweak or a more benevolent course. Woods struggled with the putter, was average off the tee, was average scrambling and just did not give any confidence that he can win this week. He seems to be striking his irons pretty well, but still not overly compelling. Finally, I am not sure how his health is, given the tweaked back and pain experienced last week. Had this not been a key play-offs event, I think he may have pulled out by now. He may yet still. I have to swerve Woods this week, but he can win if his ball is more readily in play as it should be.

Thoughts now on the rest of the top 10 ranked players. Phil is next, but, if you didn't believe last week at Bethpage Black, there is probably not enough reason to believe here, despite the 2007 win and 10th last year. Phil's odds have held too, because last week was by no means awful. I can't have him this week, although the two good rounds from 4 he did shoot last week suggests a game that may be coming around.

Brandt Snedeker has been 3rd and 5th last 2 years and is in very good form. After four average events coming in, Snedeker went 3rd at the Barclays and 3rd here last year. Well only 3 average events coming in this year, with 2nd at the Barclays is a nice omen ahead of this event. 4th in strokes gained putting last week and 20th in birdie or better, Snedeker really has a good chance to feature here. The question is whether I can have him at 28/1. I think I am just going to leave him.

Jason Dufner has had a week off, the week after I had a week off backing him in a tournament. OK, I have not been quite that ardent about it, but I always think hard about whether to have Dufner in my team. Dufner is this year's Webb Simpson for me in many ways, having delivered big from relative obscurity prior. Dufner was 2nd in 2009 here and followed up with 18th and 31st last 2 years also. After giving some guys a headstart in the FedEx cup race last week, Dufner has some catching up to do. The venue at which Webb did it last year has some nice symmetry for me given the similarities in the seasons of both. Last year, Dufner was 20th in putts per round here having been 88th and 95th in the two events prior. So, 47th in putts last time out worries me less than 9th and 4th before that encourages me. The difference is his ballstriking, which has moved from good to sensational in 2012. I think he has a glorious chance this week as long as he kept his eye on the practice side of things in the week off. Dufner's Zurich classic maiden win came after a week off, so I am sure he can keep the momentum rolling here.

Vijay is playing pretty well and has a great past record here. However, I can't trust his weekends any more. At 80s and generally 70s and lower, he has to be overlooked. 1st in 04 and 08 and 2nd in 06 tells you of his past prowess. Good luck if you are on him.

Finally, Luke Donald. Luke has been 2nd and 3rd last two years. And, on a course that tends to favour those with a stellar short game, it is no surprise at all to see. With par 5s that Donald can look at in 2 blows and an impeccable wedge game when he can't, Donald is very likely to keep the scoreboard ticking over. After last year's double money list win, it has been fairly quiet this year for him and he has been vocal about his own failure in majors. 3 top 10 finishes in 5 events and nothing worse than 32nd in that time tells you his game is in shape. I suspect he will be keen to again try and silence the doubters with a strong play-offs. He played well last week and should challenge again this. A note of caution: Donald's 3rd rounds have been poor this year on the whole. If he gets his Saturday right, he will be very close in this event I feel. A note of optimism: Since the Deutsche in 2010, Luke Donald has had 29 further top 10s in strokeplay events. If he fails to get a top 10 this week, it will be the first time he has started a top 10 streak and failed to follow it up with another since then (aside from the season ending European Tour event in Abu Dhabi). That is my killer stat for the week - Luke Donald is in my team too.

I started off trying to do my usual tournament form preview, but I feel I have written enough and picked enough golfers to consider my selections complete. Good luck to you all this week

Regards

Dave

Golf tips - The Barclays Outright selections

2012-08-22T14:44:00.000-07:00

Outright selections
1pt EW Bo Van Pelt at 50/1 (Various)
1.5pts EW Justin Rose at 25/1 (Various)
1pt EW Jason Day at 80/1 (Various)
1pt EW Henrik Stenson at 100/1 (Various, but take 6 places if you can)
1pt EW Scott Piercy at 100/1 (Various, but take 6 places if you can)

Life continues to frustrate, with my golfing blogs limited to last minute rushed updates that do not serve enough value to the reader, who has likely made some decisions already.

I have done my usual research for the event though and believe I have found golfers here who represent true value against the bookmakers price. If you are looking for last minute reasons to believe, or reasons to be swayed, then read on. There might be something in here for you.

I am not going to wax lyrical on the needed attributes for this golf tournament, instead focusing more on who I believe can get it done. However, my thought on the type of players I want to consider are as follows:

Ability to perform in stellar fields
The Barclays field this year is something approaching a major championship or WGC standard. With a roll call of winners since 2007 such as Stricker, Vijay, Kuchar and Dustin Johnson, I expect a classy winner this week, who will be rubber-stamping his status as challenger for the whole shooting match - the Tour Championship itself in 4 weeks time. Any player who can win one of the next three vents will almost certainly be in a win to win it all situation at the Tour Championship.

Straight is good; long and fairly straight is better
Bethpage Black in 2009 followed the recent US Open trend (Olympic Atlhletic Club apart) of longer hitters featuring prominently on the leaderboard, more so than straight hitters. In 2009, adverse conditions left the course soft and hence made it play longer; it was plenty long enough before any rain fell of course. The challenge is less severe this time around as firmer fairways will shorten the course, with less punishment for players missing the short stuff. I saw a tweet from John Senden who guessed that -12 to -14 might get it done this week. Given -4 was the mark in 2009, this I think highlights that the course is more accessible to shorter hitters here. Even in 2009 and 2002 when the course was tougher, players such as Donald and Stricker, who are by no means long, were able to feature.

Hit your greens and scramble impeccably when you miss.
Players will need to keep their score ticking over this week. Greens are small here and ball strikers with a high ball flight have a clear edge. Phil has twice finished 2nd here, which I think should be attractive to players like Dustin Johnson, Bubba Watson and Rory McIlroy. Great scramblers can do well here, but they are 2nd favourite to green finding machines.

Putting will be useful, but is not likely to be the strongest requirement this week.
In particular, I want demonstrably good putters on Bent surfaces here. As I have already said, I believe our winner (or at least a major challenger for the event) is going to be one of the star names in this field. Expect him to have demonstrated great results on bentgrass greened venues previously in his career.

OK, time for the selections

Rory and Tiger do not make my team. I want to pick Rory more of the two. After all, he has just waltzed off with the PGA and his win in the US Open of 2011 will resonate with his backers here. The match up with Tiger is potentially a significant one in the immediate context of the career of both golfers. The tussle for world number 1 just got really interesting and either player can make a real statement in that group. I do not see either player really breaking free of the other and making hay at the top, which could be the pivotal factor come the weekend. This could be entirely wrong, but I just feel too uneasy about either to back them at single figure odds this week.

I have 6 players clearly in mind here. Namely Bo Van Pelt, Justin Rose, Steve Stricker, Scott Piercy, Henrik Stensson and Jason Day. They all rank in the top 10 of my system ranks. Of the 6, I did not expect the last 3 to have ranked so highly and certainly did not have Jason Day in mind.

However, let's look at why they appeal.

With 8 top 10 finishes in 2012 and two top 10s in last years play-offs, Bo Van Pelt is set for another strong week here. He was a solid finishing 4 holes away from earning us a place payout in the PGA, but this is the problem. Van Pelt has 8 top 10s this year, but only one top 5. I keep getting a great run for my money with a guy priced up as not being in the top 10 in most good fields, but am not getting paid. Can I stick with him once more? Yes. He is my number 1 ranked player here after all . He has to place again soon and might just hold on to win one of these things and justify all of the pain. In my recent ranks, he is 18th in driving distance, 19th in accuracy and 9th in greens. My concern is that he may need to scramble better than he usually does this week as he will miss more greens than usual here. However, he is a must back. Sorry for those sick of me.

Justin Rose won a play-off event last year. This appeals hugely to me. He is evolving in to a player at one with the fact that he is a top performer. Rose lost his way for some years but he is top notch in World Golf today and a feature in the World's top 10 this year. Rose could well have placed at the Masters and did so with a great weekend at the PGA. He also landed his first WGC title this year and unlike Mahan, who has fallen badly away, he has maintained his consistency through 2012. Rose ranks 2nd in my Bentgrass ratings for the last 2 years and ranks 2nd in my recent GIR stats. So, we have a player here who will find more greens (and is a great scrambler when he does miss) than most if not all and has some great results on bent surfaces. OK, that's a 2nd player I can not omit.

Mr September, Steve Stricker, has a fantastic play-offs record and has won this event also. Stricker has also been 16th and 23rd here in the US Open. With 3 top 7s in his last 4 events, including 7th at the PGA after a poor start, form is good too. 20th in my recent greens hit stats and one of the very best scramblers on tour, Stricker should go very nicely this week. Unusually, Stricker's putting was less than impeccable earlier in the season but 9th, 20th and 11th in the last 3 regulation events tells you he is right back on song. My only concern with Stricker is his price. I simply can't have him at 25s, but I am very tempted to. Stricker just misses out and is the last guy crossed from my list.

OK, my last 3 guys make the team. Henrik Stenson is back. We were with him last time and after a solid start, he withdrew due to illness. Frustrating. However, 100/1 is massive. I said it last week, but all parts of Stenson's game are in sound working order. I expect him to be in the higher reaches of the leaderboard as long as his illness has not lingered too much. Stenson could be the surprise package that everybody is gutted they have missed this week.

Scott Piercy was one of the big gambles of the PGA. I love the fact that, having done nothing at all to make us doubt him, he is a triple figure price here. Piercy hits it long, is putting really well, has some great results on bent tracks recently and is in arguably the most consistent form of his career. He is the least heralded of my team here, but I think there is space for him to get in the mix. A 48th in the PGA was preceded by 12th, 3rd, 1st and 19th. In the PGA he was 6th after day 1 and, after getting blown away a little on Friday and Saturday, he produced the 12th best Sunday round to move up the leaderboard. There is nothing at all wrong with his game. 100s is a brilliant price.

Finally, Jason Day makes my team. His results are improving and the reason for the improvement are reason for us to want to back him here. First though, Jason Day is undoubtedly the type of player whose odds will collapse if he goes close here. That he is 80/1 almost demands we look at him despite the indifferent year. First of all, Day is something of a bentgrass specialist with a series of great headline results on the surface. He struggled in Friday gusts to miss the cut at the PGA, but we can forgive that. Prior to that, 8th and 29th served notice that he was finding his feet again, especially as the 29th was at Bridgestone, an event where he sat 59th after 2 rounds before moving through. Day also fits the bill for a player who turns up for the big events, as 3 top 13 results in 4 play-off events last year confirms. This pick is one that I will very happy about if it comes in. He is ready to fire. Let's hope it all comes together this week for us.

Regards

Dave (OneBet)

Golf tips - Wyndham Championship midpoint considerations

2012-08-18T04:01:00.000-07:00

Midpoint selection
1pt EW Matt Every at 35/1 (BlueSQ, 33/1 various)

With the withdrawal of Henrik Stenson when decently placed after round 1 and with Kevin Stadler starting slowly, it seems I need to look elsewhere for my winner this week. We chose a good tournament for Kyle Thompson to make only his 2nd cut of the year and our top 20 chances are still alive there.

The following chart shows the position of the eventual winner at halfway since 2001 in this event.

Aside from 2006 and 2007, players have had to be right in the mix at halfway to win. The event has only been played at Sedgefield since 2008 of course, since which time the winner has been 1st, 1st, 1st and 2nd at halfway.

Last year, Webb Simpson sat 2nd before going on to have a strong weekend and win by 3 shots. He is the very obvious favourite again this year. The pre 2008 results are not entirely without use as winning scores were broadly similar at Forest Oaks too. Snedeker's 66-63 weekend to win in 2007 from 37th position after round 2 shows that in low scoring events, it is possible for a player to make giant strides. However, generally it is extremely tough to win from deep, because one of the leaders is always like to shoot at least one low round over the weekend.

As you may expect, there are many instances of players getting hot over the weekend and placing. The table below shows this.

Let's look more specifically at the Sedgefield results here. In 2008, Laird and Beem stormed through to place from 61st, while JJ Henry also placed from 45th at halfway. In '09, Bohn and Sutherland were able to place from 41st. In 2010, Michael Sim placed from 25th and last year, McNeill (35th to 2nd), Vijay (19th to T4th), Kim (44th to T4th), Howell III (19th to T4th) and Pettersson (35th to T4th) all made the places from deep.

So, it seems that to find our winner, we should look at the head of the leaderboard, but we should certainly not rule out players charging from deep to at least place.

With that in mind, let's try to dissect which of our leaders can get it done and who may be able to make a hero charge. From the last two years on tour, the following table shows how players have performed when in the top 20 at the post-cut stage.

The right hand column ranks the players' improvement over the weekend when Top 20 at halfway. I have gone down to T35th this week. Ranked first is DeLaet, who is a go to player of mine when conditions set up well for him. Followers will have shared the near miss pain of backing him at 100/1 and 200/1 so far this year. I can't back him here though. Injury last year means we only have 3 records of Delaet in the top 20 at halfway from this year. However, from tracing back through 2010 also, in 49 made cuts, DeLaet had put together 2 very good rounds on precisely 0 occasions over the weekend. He will need to sustain a charge to place this week, so is overlooked.

Nicolas Colaserts ranks 2nd. 9 times he has been in the top 20 at halfway this year, going on to place 3 times. However, on two of those occasions, he was already in the top 5 at this stage. I can't back him, although 22/1 is very close to being backable.

Charl Schwartzel is coming back to form. 7 shots from the lead and 66/1 is appealing on the surface of things and he ranks 3rd in weekend performance in this analysis. However, I have no instances in the last two years of him placing from any lower than 18th at this stage. He is 22nd at present. His record of staying in touch after a strong start is impeccable, so I may well be advising Charl the next time he is in the top 8 or so. However, he is just too far away for my tastes this week.

As the 100/30 (3s generally) favourite, Webb Simpson has to be considered as a win only proposition Ranked 4th in our 46 man field above, clearly he has a decent chance of being close to the summit on Sunday. Webb Simpson had 14 bad rounds of golf in 2011, the 13th of which was in the PGA. Then, he won the Wyndham and went on a great run, threatening the leaders virtually every time he played. Well, he has 14 rounds bad rounds of golf so far this year and is starting to come to the boil again. Simpson's 3 tour wins have come from 2nd (here), 18th (Deutsche) and 29th (US Open) at this stage. He has twice led the field at halfway, finishing 9th and 7th. When 2nd at halfway, he has finished 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th. He has to have a great chance. Let's look at his closest pursuers before deciding to make a play here.

Jimmy Walker tends to decelerate over the weekend. This course likes to crown first time winners, but is Walker going to continue that trend? Walker led the Valero Texas Open in 2010, eventually finishing a solid 3rd after a good weekend. This year, he has been in the top 5 on three occasions at this stage. However, after going on to finish 4th at Northern Trust, he has imploded at the Honda Classic and AT&T, finishing 67th and 32nd respectively. With such quality around him, I would be very surprised were he to win here. 7/1 is pretty dire odds.

Tim Clark is a classy player, but trusting this 1 time winner to go on and win an event is always tough. At 8/1, I can not back him, especially as he is yet to put together 4 good rounds in a tournament since his return from injury. Sergio Garcia needs a great finish here to push Poulter out of the final Ryder Cup qualifying place. I thought hard about backing him to be 36 hole leader here and am rueful in seeing him T3rd now. The reason I looked more at the 36 hole option is because Garcia has not put together a good weekend all season, aside from the stunning charge in the Northern Trust Open, which almost brought victory. He can win from here if he stays dialled in, but his confidence seems to have been down this year, and I can't back him at 8/1 either, despite the incentive. Finally Carl Pettersson. Pettersson recovered well yesterday and is 2nd favourite at 6/1. Excluding the limited field Hyundai, Pettersson failed to get in the top 5 at halfway in 2011. However, 2012 has seen Pettersson here 4 times in 2012. Of those 4 times, Pettersson has finished 2nd twice and 1st once, with only a poor weekend at the Northern Trust blotting his record. With his form here over the years as well, he is a live threat.

At 35/1, I can not ignore Matt Every. My blueprint in backing players at this stage from a little off the pace is to find players that dial in when in contention. In 2012, Every has fired on all 5 times he has been in the top 30 at halfway. Mid way positions first, with final positions in brackets: 1 (6), 2 (3), 16 (8), 3 (2), 26 (6). I am getting around 8/1 here that Every places again. With the instances of players winning for the first time here as well and tight par 70s being to his liking this year, Every makes my team. Bud Cauley is on the same score, has the same number of wins - 0 - and yet is over half the price, with a less compelling performance over the weekend when in the mix. That said, his back to back 4th place finishes coming in are the reason for this. Cauley is too short for me though.

I am also going to have a small play on Jonas Blixt in the top 10 market on BetFair. Blixt is a country mile off the pace at -1, but has put together great 3rd rounds the last 3 times he has made the cut. I can't advise a formal bet, because there is only £10 at 65s available. But, I really like the price and am happy to back that he gets hot again at those prices. If you can find any way to get some money on Blixt at those sort of numbers, it is not the worst play at all. I think he is just too far away to be backable in the place market, but the huge odds available here are interesting as a back to lay option also.

So, am I backing Webb? No. There is too much quality right behind him in my view for 3/1 to be good enough value. I think he is the most likely winner, but 12/1 before the off down to 3 only a shot ahead of 4 of the pre-event favourites does not quite stack up for me, especially as the 12s was too tight to begin with.

Regards

Dave (OneBet)

Wyndham Championship Outright Selections

2012-08-15T16:38:00.000-07:00

Outright selections
0.2pts EW Kyle Thompson at 1000/1 (SkyBet, BetVictor) and 0.2pts top 20 at 40/1 (SkyBet)
1pt EW Henrik Stensson at 40/1 (Various)
1pt EW Kevin Stadler at 125/1 (Various)
1pt EW JB Holmes at 66/1 (BoyleSports)

Additional bet
2pt EW Jason Dufner to win the Money list at 10/1 (Various, but take 3 places and 1/5 odds)

As mentioned on Twitter, Wednesday night was always going to be my only hope of writing a preview. And, here it is, albeit a hasty one.

I have been keeping up with twitter whilst away and have heard a lot about how few players making the top 25 at the PGA the week before have then gone on to place at the Wyndham. Well, it is a bit of a red herring in my view. In 2010, only 2 players from the top 25 of the PGA PLAYED the next week at the Wyndham. In 2011, that had swelled to 4 players. Hardly a compelling stat then, that none of the 6 (Dufner/Petterson 2010, Dufner/Immelman/Toms/Haas 2011) made top 5. The simple fact is that the top players playing in the PGA use Wyndham as a gap week as a general rule ahead of the play-offs.

So, let us not eliminate anybody at all from our selections on this basis. However, at time of writing, Jason Dufner has come in to 12s, as has Webb Simpson, with Petterson now 18s. Asserting that any of these prices are value is not something I can readily do.

Petterson played well last week and has a great record here, but I am not sure I can have him within a few points of the favourite before the off. He went pretty deep last week and, despite the short journey here, his press coverage has been pretty full-on for a guy not usually so accustomed to the lime light. I would not be surprised were he to prosper here, but his MC when last well placed at the PGA coming in is enough to put me off, despite 4th in 2011 and 1st in 2008 on this course. The 1st in 2008 and subsequent 67th in 2009 also gives a clue as to how Petterson may cope this week as the media attention would have been similar in 2009 to this week before the off.

Simpson really impressed me in the 2nd round last week, after shaking off the rust of his planned absence from the game in the 1st round. 8th in 2010 and 1st in 2011 shows Simpson loves the course and plays it well. However, the change to Bermuda is a slight negative for me: Simpson is 40th in my Bermuda positive ranking, versus 22nd on Bentgrass (the green grass prior to this year's renovation). Despite the US Open win, Simpson's form has been a little less than stellar this year and he is not a 12/1 shot this week. He can win, but I can't have him at the price.

I was with Dufner for his maiden win and he has been good to me generally this year, but his record is indifferent in this event. He is a better player now of course, and he never contended last week, unlike the last two years in the PGA (5th 2012, 2nd 2011). I have nothing better than 26th on this course however and nothing better than 8th way back in 2004 to guide me here. With new greens set to play firmer and faster, Dufner may struggle a little. Bermuda grass greens are a slight negative versus Bent in my stats, but this less than top draw putter does not really have his results driven by excellence on the greens. Tee shots are arguably too easy here for Dufner's accuracy to really give him an edge over tougher tracks, although his approach play in to firmer greens will give him more presentable birdie opportunites than most if not all of the field. I have been on recent near misses for Dufner. Now I have omitted him, I do not want him to win this week...................but I do for the bet I will detail later.

The first pick for me is my 2nd 1000/1 pick of the year. The first 1000/1 pick, Brian Harman, had sneaky course form at the US Open and fell short, while Michael Thompson got it done at huge odds as one of the few others who also had indicators there. So, hopefully I am using the right logic this week also with my insane pick. This guy has the following form in 2012: MC (18 times), WD (once) and T57th. So, I am truly insane right? Well, quite possibly. But, there are some decent reasons for my selection and I do not think a 1000/1 dismissal is at all right. South Carolina resident (we are in NC this week) Kyle Thompson has 3 Nationwide tour wins on his CV, two of which are in the Rex Hospital Open. The Rex Hospital Open was won last year on a non too taxing course length wise with Bermuda greens, held in North Carolina. Sound familiar? This course should resonate with Thompson this week. I think Kyle Thompson is a talented player who just has lost his way on the main tour this year. He starts quite late in the day, when the TV cameras and media focus will have lessened. And, he starts on the front 9, which is unquestionably the easier 9 to start on. I hope to see him find a couple of early birdies and find a groove that will set him up for the week. I also added a top 20 bet at a pretty huge 40/1 in case he plays well but just falls short.

Jason Dufner actually tops my rating here, but I want 18s. Henrik Stenson was not an instinctive pick at all this week, but a closer look at him shows him up well enough to be worth a play. In this less than top-draw field, Stenson's three straight top 10s up to and including the Scottish Open and headline stats for driving distance, accuracy and GIR within the top 30 of my recent PGA/European tour ranks, I believe him worthy of a play. Stenson has not won for some time now, but this has the feel of the sort of event he could return in. I am not going crazy with my points here, but this feels like an event that should suit. Course form = MC/MC, but I think he has the right game coming in to suit. Remember, Stenson has hardly had game before this season. He is a player again now and will be likely well up for this event. He starts early and on the front 9. Like Thompson, the chance exists for a good start that will set him up well for the event. As a final motivation, Stenson sits a precarious 112th in the Fed Ex cup race. He will want to be involved not just next week, but deep in to the Play-Offs. Getting the job done this week will go a long way to achieving that.

Kevin Stadler is a great player if you do this by stats, who does not always get things done in the real world. However, I really like this 125/1 shot this week. Stadler hits greens and has been doing just that in recent events too. This event is one where you can say that Stadler actually has got it done over the years. Stadler was finally edged on the 75th hole here by Ryan Moore in 2009 and was also 7th in 2007, albeit on a different course. The other added factor that I really like is that the switch to Bermuda should suit his eye. Stadler in the last couple of years has generally had his best results on Bermuda. Stadler has had 5 top 11s this year, 3 of which were on Bermudagrass. Let's hope he can start well and early to give us a great run this week.

JB Holmes tees it up for the first time here this week, but should find conditions to his liking. Holmes is a little erratic at times off the tee, but that should matter less than recent events this week. Holmes hits it a long way and has been hitting more than his share of greens in recent weeks. A good wedge player, Holmes will find a short iron in his hand, with the ability to attack the pin on a number of holes. Holmes is in progressive and impressive form too, shooting 27th, 15th and 12th in his last 3 events. I really feel he can get involved here and potentially challenge for the win.

Finally, I have kind of covered Jason Dufner. If he wins here, he goes atop the money list and then is almost a shoe-in to finish top 3. If he doesn't, then he is still of course in range and can get it done as the season goes on. Dufner generally finishes his season after the play-offs, but I am hoping his motivation to win the money list will see him play on. However, I am less convinced that Rory will dramatically alter his schedule to try and win the money list title and I am almost certain that Tiger Woods will not. Woods sits 1 and Rory 2 at time of writing. A big performance from Dufner could see him land this title and a continuation of his form over the season will see him challenge the top 3 at the very least. We have to take 3 places though, because it is Tiger and Rory and because the likes of Bubba and Zach are so close also . A big chance for no. 3 in this race to steal a march on no.s 1, 2, 4 and 5, who sit this week out.

Regards

Dave (OneBet)

US PGA final thoughts

2012-08-13T03:41:00.001-07:00

Outright results
3pt win Rory McIlroy at 20/1 (won +60pts)
1pt EW Bo Van Pelt at 66/1 (finished T18)
1pt EW Martin Laird at 125/1 (finished T42nd)
1.5pt EW Bubba Watson at 40/1 (finished T11)
1.5pt EW Jason Dufner at 40/1 (finished T27)
Rory McIlroy found a fitting way to return to number 1 in the World, by landing the Final major of 2012 and the 2nd of his career. And it was easy too. Rory just held it together much, much better than all others. I highlighted in my US PGA preview that, Shaun Micheel apart, this tournament since the turn of the century produced winners who had won on tour and arrived in form. Rory was one of the 14 that could have continued that trend and did. So, expect a cut and paste when I preview this event next year.
Like the British Open, I was left underwhelmed by the inability of many others to get it together when conditions gave them the best chance to do so. Ian Poulter was the only threat on the final day, coming from deep to show the others how it could be done. Justin Rose showed on both days that it was distinctly possible to get hot and post a score too. Finally, the solid weekend from David Lynn in benign conditions to finish solo 2nd was proof evident that not enough players got it together over at least 3 of the 4 days. Lynn is a good player and a solid professional, but his 2nd place will leave others rueful for sure.
Let's look at my selections for the event. My 2nd win only tip of the year (I think - Phil, who lost a play-off to Haas) was a useful one, because I picked Rory McIlroy. He delivered 50 points profit on the week (3pt win at 20/1 minus 10pts on other selections). No need to question whether we got that tip right. The other four picks all are an example of what might have been.
Bo Van Pelt stood on the 14th tee T4th and 2 shots from a locked in automatic Ryder Cup slot. He walked off 18 having dropped 3 shots - no pay out for us then and sadly typical of a season for him which has been wonderfully consistent, but short on top 5 finishes. He might just go and win one of these things out of the blue soon. Bubba Watson's weekend was bettered only by the likes of Rose, Lynn and McIlroy. That he finished 2 shots outside the places is really due to a poor first round. Watson played in the (slightly) trickier afternoon slot, but really left himself in a tough place with that first round of +1. He is back though. Jason Dufner also motored through the field over the weekend, but in the easiest of Thursday conditions imploded late on to post +2. 8 off the lead after day 1 and only 6 from 2nd at the end tells you he could have placed quite easily. Martin Laird was our 125/1 long shot. He played rounds 1, 2 and 4 in -3, which is better playing than almost the entire field, but shot 79 on Saturday, which generally was a great day for scoring.
The major winners this year read as follows:
Bubba Watson - good win for the game and clearly a guy that will contend often for majors.
Webb Simpson - a quieter season having been within a few holes of landing the US Money prize last year.....that was until he won the US Open. Again, a very good winner in the sense that he has proven his class on tour. After a good Presidents Cup in Australia, it will be interesting to see how he fares in Ryder Cup this year.
Ernie Els - while I am glad that he won, I am a little underwhelmed by this one. Els played the most solidly and won. He deserved too as well. Leaderboards don't lie. Els also challenged well in the US Open, but I wonder is this is more more a major title swan song than a sign of things to come.
Rory McIlroy - The returning world no.1 and arguably best placed to take that title forward if he gets the mental side of the game right. A great winner of the event.
All in all, a very good year for bringing class to the winner's enclosure in Major golf. Having Tiger contending in 3 of them did no harm either of course.
Finally, I am going to give a few headline grades for some of the players in the field this week
A* : McIlroy (star pupil) and David Lynn (maximised ability)
A :Keegan Bradley (brilliant follow up to last week and good title defence), John Daly (great run of form and wonderful to see him back), Jamie Donaldson (European Tour winner and now major contender. Great play), Ian Poulter (the course is too long for him, isn't it? Great play), Pettersson/Adams (very solid weeks from both)
A- : Justin Rose (yes a good result, but he should be really contending for the W. Lazy 2nd round), Michael Hoey (great 2nd round and huge credit for admitting the error which caused his DQ)
B+ : Tim Clark (the guy is back, fit and back where he belongs)
B : Tiger Woods (no, not an F. Tiger is the only person who has threatened to win the last 3 majors. He is under huge scrutiny every weekend of every major and will be until he wins again. Solid effort from ONE OF THE best players on the planet, but no longer undisputedly THE best), Steve Stricker (solid week for short hits, but rather fell away after storming in to contention in Rd3), Darren Clarke (huge made cut for him after a horror year)! Webb Simpson (missed cut after an understandable poor first round due to ring-rustiness. Second round of E par 5th best in field was a fine effort and almost made the weekend. Solid tune up ahead of Wyndham defence)
B- : my three of Dufner, Bubba and Van Pelt. All had lapses and all should have finished better, but played generally well
C : Oosthuizen and Harrington. (Harrington is not quite there and Oosthuizen realLy should have have been), Phil (briefly excited and then swiftly exited from the main stage. Another distinctly average week for him. Where has the early season zing gone?)
D : Dustin, Els. No zing at all.
E : Luke. The good final day really strengthened how poor the first 3 days had been. The deposed number 1 was meek in the wake of Rory's glory.
Regards
DAVE (OneBet)
- Posted using BlogPress from my iPad

USPGA Midpoint considerations

2012-08-11T04:36:00.001-07:00

The final golf major of the year is beautifully poised at the halfway stage, with the weather obliterating many in the field yesterday but not at the expense of proven class high on the leaderboard.

5 players managed to beat par yesterday - I am most certainly including the desperately unlucky Michael Hoey in this list, who was DQ after reporting his own failure to replace sand on the ball. Formal round averages can not yet be gleaned as Joost Luiten still has his round to finish, but the players went round in an average 6.1 over par yesterday. The thing that surprises me most is that Ian Poulter could get around in sub par, but so many other great ball strikers were simply blown away. Poulter is a great grinder for sure, but he is also one of the shorter hitters on tour. So, if he can get it under par on the longest course in major championship history, I rather fancy a few out there will be underwhelmed with their efforts yesterday.

I am going to give some thoughts on the leaderboard, but please note I do it this week without my usual armoury of stats at my disposal. I am away from home with only an iPad and an intermittent connection.

Tiger Woods - For the 3rd major in succession, Tiger looms large at the halfway stage. At the US Open, he co-led with Furyk at this point before falling away, largely due to an inability to play the super-tough opening 6 hole stretch well. No such problems here at the start of the round, as the front 9 is the easier of the two, although nothing should be taken for granted; every hole is tough when the wind blows. In the British Open, Tiger never went away, but never quite got there either. Who am I to question Tiger of course, but I still believe his choice of iron off all bar a couple of tees cost him over the 4 days. It was his to win.

So what of his chances here? First of all, he simply has to be favourite at this stage. I checked a couple of forecasts before writing this. On Saturday golfing conditions are ranked only 4 out of 10, but improve to 8 tomorrow. At this course, 4 out of 10 is not where you want it to be. Tiger is scrambling great, making a number of 1-putts to keep his score ticking over. Question is whether he can continue to do that. If so, he has an outstanding chance. If not, I would question whether he is hitting enough greens. Much will depend on where the organisers choose to place the pins on the last 2 days. I suspect that on Saturday the pins will be more accessible, which makes both approaches and up and downs eminently more possible. On Sunday perhaps less so and a number of up and downs will incorporate shots across undulating greens.

Tiger is the favourite, but he has to improve his tee to green game to have a serious chance of winning. I believe an over par round is likely over the weekend and both the elements and the performance of others will dictate how costly this is. There will be a lot of pressure on him if he hits the front on Sunday. I have my doubts and would not be backing him at his current price.

Carl Pettersson - Pettersson co-leads at halfway, but is readily dismissed by layers at 25/1. I think bookmaker pricing is largely to deflect outlay away from Tiger in such events. They have to try and at least even their books, which is mighty tough when Tiger or prominent. Pettersson has never made the places in a major, but has the right sort of credentials to do so. A lot of punters talked up Pettersson before the US Open and with good reason. When it comes to shaping your ball off the tee, Pettersson is a good man to trust. When it comes to playing technical, tight par 70s, again Pettersson is a man to look at seriously. His win earlier this season was seriously impressive - Pettersson is one of the few this year to have hit the front and then gone impressively away from his challengers over the weekend. A multiple tour winner and comfortably within the world's top 50, he is not lightly dismissed here. 3 late bogeys will have jolted his confidence of course yesterday, but this guy is plenty good enough to start afresh today.

My main concern with Pettersson is how well he maintains form through to
Late Sunday. Pettersson is hardly the fittest guy on tour and surely this course asks more questions than most of your fitness. I also wonder whether the long putter keeps on rolling the, well on the green in stiff winds and across large greens.

Over all, 25/1 feels like just about the right price. Pettersson lost his way in holes 7-9 yesterday (his 16th-18th). If still somewhere near the top, he could be worth looking at at 45 and not 36 holes.

Vijay Singh completes the trio at the top. The oldest major winner were he to do it, Vijay has one of the very best CVs in the field. Of course, his CV is filled with highlights in years gone by, but a Vijay Singh untroubled by back injuries is still capable of great play. Singh still hits it long and remains a wizard with the wedge when playing well. His 69 yesterday was the only round in the 60s and demonstrates just how well he is controlling his golf ball. I highlighted in a midpoint preview earlier this year just how readily Singh has been blowing good positions at halfway in the last 2 years (possibly due to the challenge of staying in peak condition over 4 days). However, two top 10s including the British Open coming in suggest he is playing injury free right now.

That said, it is a long time since Singh placed in a major and it is a rare occurrence indeed for him to contend in regular PGA tour events. I think the 12/1 quotes on offer are something nearing lunacy. He might win, but after the headline grabbing 69, my instinct would be to fancy him to finish outside the top 20 before he wins. An avoid for me.

Ian Poulter is a guy I usually look to on faster putting surfaces.........or when the wind blows. He was fantastic in chasing Harrington down the stretch in the 2009 British Open when I think +3 won the event. His round yesterday was pretty special given his relative lack of weapons. Problem is, he is 3rd favourite and only 11/1. I think I need 20/1 before I am going in on Poulter here. I would love to see him do it though.

Jamie Donaldson has no hope, right? Well,I am not entirely convinced of that. 2 shots from the lead and recently having broken his duck on the European Tour, Donaldson is scaling new heights this year. For years, he has been in that small group of players on tour who you thought had to win an event sooner or later. The question is whether his winning on tour has made him able to compete in this company. I can't answer that one, but I know it will be tough. 50/1 is quite some price for a guy right in contention. I think if he was a bit better than the 55s available on Betfair I might think him worthy of a back to lay, but I can't trust him at the price. The 50/1 is really an 11.5/1 place price. It isn't bad, but he is in with the big boys here and the leaderboard is too star-studded for it to feel great value.

Rory McIlroy is both my win only pre-event tip and also the clear 2nd favourite behind Woods in the betting at 8/1. I made some money on him yesterday, confident he would slip back. It didn't take a genius to work that out and the lay to back strategy was pretty easy money on Betfair. However, Rory stuck to the task pretty well and will be likely buoyed at having coped better than most in trying conditions. The question with Rory is whether he can stay close enough to the head of things on Saturday? If so, potentially improved conditions on Sunday means he has a chance.

I can see a script where Rory lies 3 off the pace after round 3 and gets hot to win the event, but I would not back him now at 8/1 to do so. I believe his chances of being much shorter in the betting come the end of today are quite slim. Therefore, it makes every sense to consider bother lay to back to strategy - lay him at 9.4 or so and back him at 15 or so to try and get free profit should he win. Alternatively, wait and see if he is in the mix and look again after round 3 would be my advice.

Of the layers at -1, I most like Immelmann because he won the team event here in 2003. Scott at 14s is poorly priced. Blake Adams is probably best equipped of the 4 to go well (mindful of a strong showing at Sawgrass) but least well equipped when it comes to contending. However, the 80/1 certainly tempts me to risk that he contends here. That is a nice price indeed. Immelmann at 66s is decent too, but I would love to have seen him 80s too. Aaron Baddeley is a player I really like and he has the tools to become much more prominent on tour than he is now. However, 40/1 is pretty dire odds.

And so to the players at evens. It is great to see Phil in contention. The golfing world needs the best players playing well and going for majors. I hope he stays in there. He is 25s, which is not bad. However, if you want to back him, expect the jumpy Betfair punters to offer you nice value. If he birdies a hole early, he will leap forward. This is entirely artificial, as he may then shoot +8 (as anybody can around here) but that is the beauty of Betfair. My strongest play on Phil is a Betfair play. I am on the fence about whether it is a great play, however.

McDowell, Hansen and Clark are also evens and I can make a case for all. McDowell keeps contending in majors and won a very tough US Open in just the sort of way he would need to here - by hanging tough. The layers know it though and 28s is tight enough for me. Clark is another short hitter who, like Poulter, is showing there is more than way to score round here. It is hard not to like 100/1. Consider this brief. If you are level par today and end the tournament level par, you are likely to place and might win. That statement is weather dependent, but it is has a lot to it. So, it is 25/1 on a place that Tim Clark stays still. I like that. I like it for Hansen, McDowell and Mickelson too by the way. Hansen at 66s has merits, particularly given his charge through the field in the masters and his general ability to progress over the weekend - I backed him at halfway at the British Open for this reason.

To finish, is there anybody else that can go under par for the weekend from their current over par position and place or even win. Molinari can play tough pretty well and Zach proved that well at Sawgrass. Marcel Siem just lost out to Danny Willett on the European Tour in tough conditions recently and could shock a few. Jacobson and Van Pelt have merits for hanging tough and playing solid golf and may yet have a say. Harrington just is not there any more. I have not backed him once this season and have no intention to do so now. He needs to prove it to me. I am not one for theories. That said, he could get close agin by just hanging around.

I mentioned Leishmania as one who can go well if it gets tough and he produced a fine round yesterday. He might be able to do something pretty outrageous versus the field over the weekend and shock them all. At +3, a frustrated Ernie Els needs to buy a putt or two. He will look at the similarity of his position here and at the British Open. Solid enough, but not really contending. I think he is too far back and his frustration is because he can not hole a putt. If he holes a few, he is one that can move forward. There is some value in the place market for Ernie, although the layers are still wary of this fact. Same point for Harrington as well.

Enjoy the weekend and let's hope that one of my tips before the off does something special. All 5 made it, but realistically only Rory, Laird and Van Pelt have a chance over the weekend.

Regards

DAVE (OneBet)

- Posted using BlogPress from my iPad

Golf Tips - US PGA Championship outright selections

2012-08-06T15:18:00.001-07:00

Outright selections
3pt Win Rory McIlroy at 20/1 (Various)
1pt EW Bo Van Pelt at 66/1 (General)
1pt EW Martin Laird at 125/1 (Vairous)

Previously advised

1.5pt EW Bubba Watson at 40/1 (Various)
1.5pt Ew Jason Dufner at 40/1 (Various)

Kiawah hole by hole guide http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/08/golf-tips-us-pga-championship-hole-by.html

The US PGA is the least vaunted of the 4 majors on the golfing calendar but, in my view at least, I think we have an intriguing proposition this week that will may live long in the memory. First, we have the cream of the game competing this week, with the World Ranking invites going beyond 100th place; everybody is here this week.

There are a number of subplots within the field also. Keegan Bradley defends this week and tuned up superbly by gunning down Jim Furyk last week to lift his first WGC title. However, as is likely to be the case for the foreseeable future, Tiger Woods is clearly at the head of the betting. Woods finished well last week to make the top 10. He was let down by nothing more than his putter last week and may have a huge say in the outcome as he continues to seek a comeback major. Rory McIlroy is finally awakening from his mini slump and seems capable of challenging again. World No.1 Luke Donald is also playing well and seems capable of raising his game most when his world no.1 status is threatened.

Perhaps more importantly than the fact that certain players arrive with headline chances is the fact that majors continue to be spread liberally around the world's finest - and not quite finest - golfers. 16 majors, 16 different winners. There is no sense that you can pin your hopes to any player right now with unabashed confidence

In my hole by hole guide (link here) of the course, I tried to give a feel for what players will expect at Kiawah Island this week. Heavy rain at time of writing and in the weeks leading up to the event mean that the longest course in Major Championship history just got longer. A long course does not necessarily equal a bombers course, however, as Jim Furyk showed as recently as the US Open when just failing to land the event at Olympic. However, with generous landing areas on many fairways, players who can hit the ball a long way from the tee have a potentially critical advantage this week. For me, the key attributes are as follows:

Total driving - Players really need to be at least quite long from the tee, but also pretty straight. On many holes, the cost of missing the fairway (particularly to the right) will be a heavy one. However, there is also an advantage on several risk/reward holes of choosing and hitting the longer of two driving areas.

Ability to shape the ball both ways, with a right to left game most desired - The hole by hole preview I posted reiterated the importance of shot shape, with many holes showing a clear advantage for players moving the ball right to left. I picked Bubba last night on Twitter because I had to advise him while the price was still value (Bubba has already come in to 35/1 since). The more I studied the course and hole by hole requirements, the more I could picture holes which would suit Bubba's eye.

A great scrambling game - Obviously players who consistently hit greens will need this part of their game less, but I fancy the winner this week will have got up and down from around the green better than many.

Fairways and greens - hit them both. Often

Solid putting - Players are likely to face several putts of 5-10 feet to make par, either because they have had to chip on to undulating greens, or because they have putted across greens up to 10,000sq feet. Players will have to consistently hole out to keep their score ticking over, especially if the wind gets up. Although the green speed is only expected to reach between 10 and 11 on the stimpmeter by the off, a solid putting stroke will be oft required, especially as the papsalum greens are not experienced often by the field.

Before explaining my choices, I want to highlight two consistent themes that apply to recent winners of this event: Previous winners tend to have already won earlier that year and arrive in demonstrable form.

Let’s take a look at that point

2011: Winner Keegan Bradley, who also won the Byron Nelson in May. 15^th at Firestone the week before.

2010: Winner Martin Kaymer, who won the Abu Dhabi Golf Championship in January. 22^nd at Firestone the week before.

2009: Winner YE Yang, who also landed the Volvo Classic and Honda Classic in 2009. 19^th at Firestone the week before.

2008: Winner Padraig Harrington, also 2008 Open Champion. 20^th at Firestone the week before.

2007/2006: Winner both years Tiger, who won 13 other events in those 2 years. Winner by 8 at Firestone in 07 and winner at the Buick 2 weeks before in 06 (WGC Bridgestone was held after the PGA prior to 07 and the Buick was Woods’ last event before the PGA)

2005: Winner Phil Mickelson, winner of 3 tournaments prior to the PGA that year. 10^th at the International the week before.

2004: Winner Vijay Singh, four time tour winner that year prior to the event. First at the Buick two weeks before, Singh’s last event prior to the PGA.

2003: Winner Shaun Micheel, with no prior wins that year. 60^th at the International.

2002: Winner Rich Beem, winner of The International 2 weeks prior to the PGA, which was his last event prior to the PGA.

2001: Winner David Toms, Compaq Classic winner earlier that year. 35^th at the Buick the week before.

Aside from Shaun Micheel, the last 11 years has seen a previous winner on the PGA or European tour that year prevail in this event. Also, aside from Micheel and to a lesser extent David Toms in 2001, the winner has demonstrated they are in good shape in the event immediately prior to the PGA.

If we take the logic above as a very strong barometer of our likely winner this week, we can dissect and eliminate a number of players from this week’s field. There are 18 players in the field who finished in the top 30 in the last event and also have won on one of the major tours this year. They are as follows:

Player	Last tournament	Last 3 event average	2012 winner?
Keegan Bradley	1	27	Yes
Steve Stricker	2	10	Yes
Louis Oosthuizen	4	16	Yes
Rory McIlroy	5	25	Yes
Justin Rose	5	37	Yes
Thorbjorn Olesen	5	17	Yes
Jason Dufner	7	14	Yes
Webb Simpson	7	12	Yes
Scott Stallings	7	52	Yes
Tiger Woods	8	32	Yes
Luke Donald	8	10	Yes
Matt Kuchar	8	17	Yes
Kyle Stanley	16	39	Yes
Dustin Johnson	19	20	Yes
Bubba Watson	19	15	Yes
Bill Haas	19	24	Yes
Scott Piercy	19	8	Yes
Rafael Cabrera Bello	29	52	Yes

I use statistics a lot in my analysis. And, although this is a little one-dimensional, I would certainly be hesitant in having onside any players who could not get near the head of the field at Bridgestone last week.

So, we want players who can find fairways and greens and hit it longer than average, as well as being able to scramble and putt solidly when required. We also ideally want recent winners, who arrive with their game in good shape. So to my choices.

Bubba Watson - A winner at Augusta this year of course and I have said much about Bubba already of course. With a first major and a first child, it is entirely expected that Bubba's form would have dipped a little. However, the signes are there that he is coming back. Bubba produced his best finish at the British Open and followed up with a very solid T19 at Firestone last week. However, the most compelling case I can make for Bubba is the course's requirements. Bubba has the right shot shape for this course and is plenty long enough. He will be more comfortable than most moving the ball away from the main danger, which is usually on the right off the tee. In addition, Bubba's continues to lead GIR stats on tour. His ability to do so from off the fairway will be key again this week where required. I fully expect Bubba to enjoy himself this week. If the wind gets high, I have my doubts, but I am not convinced he will be particularly blown away versus the rest of the field even if it does blow. I also like the fact that Bubba made the play-off at the Pete Dye designed Whistling Straits in 2010, which is perhaps the most closely aligned Dye design to this. I expect Bubba to give us a fun ride this week and he may just pick up a second major.

Jason Dufner - There is nobody I trust to go well this week more than Dufner. We just missed with him last week, but I see no reason to leave him out this at all. I watched with anguish as Dufner played his 3rd round in +2 to slip away from the leaders. He didn't play so badly but similar to Tiger in round 1, he did not score anywhere near as well as his tee to green game dictated he should have. I have highlighted a few times in recent weeks how well Dufner is striking the ball - 25th driving distance, 3rd in driving accuracy and 12th in greens hit last week does nothing to dampen that view. 12th in greens hit is his fisst time outside the top 10 in that category in 4 events, by the way. The final positive is Dufner and Pete Dye designs. 5th and 2nd in the last 2 years in the US PGA Championship have both been achieved on Pete Dye designs. A great scrambler which contributes to his place in the top 10 for bogey avoidance, I can find very few negatives for Dufner this week. Sure, he is not the best putter in the field, but this is not the week where the best putter is the pre-requisite for victory. Expect Dufner to be very close to the head of the field yet again. I tipped Dufner early at 40/1, which is a brilliant price. He is 30s already less than a day later. I still think you need him on side.

Rory McIlroy - Rory lost a play-off in this event along with Bubba in 2010. Finally, he is coming back to form. I am most encouraged by the amount of work Rory put in after the British Open. Whatever the reason (and most have an opinion) for his relative slump, there are signs he is coming back. This course is often generous from the tee, which is right how McIlroy likes it. When winning the US Open last year, McIlroy was able to unleash his driver and dial in his irons to stunning effect in going away from the field. It would not surprise me at all were he to do just that again this week. There may be some luck in avoiding the worst of the conditions this week, but McIlroy has been able to dominate a Masters field for 3 days, a British Open field for a day (arguably 3 days after a second round 80 did not deter him from finishing 3rd) and a US Open fielld for 4 days. He arguably should have won this event in 2010 also, but I think he could have a great chance this week, especially as the course gets damper and hence longer. I am going win only here. Rory is one of the few to truly believe can win, but also can not be trusted fully yet to fire. the last time I did this, I watched Bill Haas hole a monster in a play-off and deny Phil. Still, win only feels the right play to me.

I am struggling with my final selection. The whole world seems to be on Dustin Johnson and I entirely understand the rationalé for him this week. However, I do not think he was favourite over Bubba and Dufner at all and the continued adoration for him as he moves in to clear 4th favouritism frankly baffles me. He can win, but like Scott last week, he is terribly priced to do so. Justin Rose is a bit of a photo-fit for this event in many ways and can make a strong challenge this week. However, I feel the lengthening of the course may just take this almost literally out of reach for him.

I like Piercy, but the value has been long since taken on him. Similarly, Garrigus is now too tight to back. Bill Haas is sneaking back in to some form and holds some appeal, as does Schwartzel. I actually like Els, not just because he has a 4th major story of the year where he to challenge (the Masters story was the will they invite or won't they saga that preceded the event - they didn't). the likes of Goosen and Leishman can also tough it out if the going gets a little tougher. Leishman ticks the box for having won this year also. Bo Van Pelt again tempts me and 66/1 is good enough here. I picked him last week and he did nothing to discourage. He is in the top 20 for my recent driving distance and driving accuracy stats and 9th in my recent GIR rankings. Make sure you take the 6 places, as Bo is great at finding that 6th-10th range. I expect he will go well again.

I am also going to play one more guy. Martin Laird has had a fairly quiet time of things this year, but is starting to play better again. I think the fact the course is lengthening works in Laird's favour, as does the fact that there are a number of holes with generous landing areas. Laird is a massive price at 125/1 on a course where I believe only a few will be able to prevail if it plays really long. Laird is one of those guys

Regards

Dave (OneBet)

Golf tips - US PGA Championship hole by hole review

2012-08-06T13:39:00.001-07:00

US PGA Outright selections http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/08/golf-tips-us-pga-championship-outright.html

Hi all.

In competitive terms, Kiawah is very lightly raced. In professional golf on the men's tour, we only have the 1991 Ryder Cup, the 1997 and 2003 WGC World Cup and 2007 Senior PGA Championship to give us any guide in terms of demonstrable tournament form. Kiawah is a pretty unique test. Dubbed the War on the Shore in 1991, significant changes have been made to try and give players more of a fair test should the wind blow next week. Make no mistake - if the wind blows, this will test players to the full.

The difficulty or otherwise of the holes on the course will depend largely upon wind strength and direction. Colin Montgormerie won the individual award during the 1997 World Cup in benign conditions, but only 6 players were under par in 2007 after a brutal opening day. In the Ryder Cup of 1991, players were hitting as much as 3W in to the par 3 17th, a hole that earlier in the event had been attacked with short irons.

The crocs around here are the very least of the players' concern. My hole guide then will mention a little about "if the wind blows" but not much. The long range weather forecast is not so bad to date, but we all know that long range weather forecasts are sometimes less than perfect.

Hole 1
396 yards: Par 4

This hole should offer plenty of birdie opportunities during the week. The hole really is all about the drive. Although quite a tight fairway, a good drive will leave players a short iron to a fairly receptive green. Betfair traders may look to get players onside who find the short stuff from the tee, with a potential trade 25 minutes later after the par 5 2nd is completed.

Hole 2
557 yards: Par 5

Following the relatively easy 1st, players next have a shortish par 5 to attack. Longer hitters who can shape their ball right to left from the tee will have a makeable second shot to the green, if wind allows. Going left off the tee is not an option, with wasteland running down the left. Right is not good either, although the effect is that the hole becomes a 3 shot hole more than it makes the hole treacherous to par. The hole has additional complexity in that two areas of marshland run across the course. Poor/short tee shots may necessitate a lay up between the two marshland areas, which really makes it difficult to attack the pin if tucked away on the right of a narrow green. Bogey is possible if players are too greedy and overshoot on their 3rd shot. Players, if unable to reach in two, will hope to get close to the large sanded area short of the green to leave a shot wedge to the pin.

Players chasing on the final day will be looking to start hot on the final day; it gets much tougher as the holes go on.

Hole 3
390 yards: Par 4

The shortest par 4 on the course next, which again offers potential birdie opportunities. The tee shot is generous too, and players have a wide landing area, leaving a likely wedge to the tee. However, with the green sloping away on all sides and elevated, the short 2nd shot will leave players looking rather foolish and frustrated if they run off the green and fail to get up and down. Players again will benefit from a right to left shot shape from the tee, leaving them on the left side of the fairway and able to attack the pin from the best angle.

If looking to back players on betfair for quick profits, now may be a good time to assess your options. The next hole is tough.

Hole 4
458 yards: Par 4

I have said it on the previous two holes, but again a right to left shape is desired from the tee to leave the ball residing on the left portion of the fairway. Bubba any one? Phil? This is a tough hole and, in to a wind, the drive will dictate whether a player can even reach in 2, never mind attack the pin. Expect to see some players opting to trust their ability to get up and down after the second shot. The landing area is wide from the tee, but marshland can interfere with the drive if not straight.

A slightly elevated shot, with 4 waste areas surrounding the green makes the 2nd shot tough if a long iron is required. Expect some big scores on this hole.

Hole 5
188 yards: Par 3

A short par 3, which can really be a difficult proposition if affected by wind. Missing the green is not a great option, so players will be tempted to play towards the safer portion of the green if the wind blows, at which point the huge ridge in the middle of the green comes in to play. The hole plays at its most difficult when the pin is over sand on the left of the greeen. Missing the green right or even making the green right and below the ridge makes a 2-putt far from a gimme. Again, a right to left tendency may offer some benefits here as will a high ball flight if the pin is cut left.

Hole 6
480 yards: Par 4

Again, a right to left shot shape is desired from the tee here as players can open up the approach to the green if in the left portion of the fairway. Players who can not shape the ball here may find their tee ball leaking right and in to the rough, which makes the second shot more challenging. The main danger in approaching the green is the sand to the left of the hole. Also, long putts are best avoided here in a difficult, undulating green.

Hole 7
579 yards: Par 5

This hole will yield plenty of putts at eagle over the week provided the wind is not harshly against golfers. A left to right tee shot is probably of most help, particularly with a prevailing wind. However, the tee shot should not cause too many problems for players this week. The second shot plays in to a narrowing fairway and green, but after a good drive, players will be eyeing a minimum of birdie on this hole. Players must not miss the hole left with their second approach.

Hole 8
198 yard: Par 3

The difficulty of this hole will be determined by the wind. The green narrows at the back and long is not an option, which means that the centre of the green is always a sound option, particularly when the pin is cut at the back of the green. With a prevailing wind, players will find difficulty in being long enough to get on to an elevated green, while ensuring they do not over hit to sand at the back of the green.

Hole 9
494 yards: Par 4

Another nice hole for players who have an affinity for Augusta, players able to shape the ball from right to left with both their tee shot and approach shot have best chance of threatening the pin on this hole. Danger lurks too far left from the tee and a ball drifting right will make the second shot long and possible too long in to the wind for some. Players will want to clear the ridge in the middle of the green for shots to the left portion of the green ad this will leave a difficult, uphill 2-putt.

Hole 10
447 yards: Par 4

Long, confident drivers, in conditions where the wind is not against have the opportunity to take this hole apart. For most, however, a safe mid/left side of a fairway drive will leave a tricky shot to the green. the further left the tee shot, the narrower the approach. For this reason, a right to left shape is again beneficial for irons in to the green. Players playing over the bunker halfway down this hole will be faced with a narrowing, but makeable drive, after which a short iron or wedge to an open green leaves a great chance to make 3.

Hole 11
593 yards: Par 5

Betfair backers may be awakened by the prospect of backing players starting on 10 as well as 1. Depending on the wind and following the relatively easy 10th hole, this hole offers more birdie and potentially even eagle opportunities. The hole actually favours a left to right drive and right to left approach if going for the green in two. However, a player simply needs to fir the brief of finding the fairway from the tee in what is a relatively forgiving landing area. Golfers looking to go for the green in two will have bunkers between them and the hole 40 yards short and a little further on and to the left of the hole. In addition, a bunker right and just before the green awaits golfers who try to bring the ball right to left who do not quite get enough turn on their golf ball.

In many ways, this could become a tortoise and hare type hole, with great wedge players such as Donald and Stricker avoiding trouble and leaving makeable birdie putts, while longer players potentially find trouble in their approaches. This should prove a really good and potentially pivotal hole through the week. It is easy to visualise a great shot on the green in two being a significant moment on Sunday.

Hole 12
412 yards: Par 4

Anybody who chose a back to lay strategy on Betfair may want to get out now if the aim is short-term profit. This hole will prove tough to birdie, although missing par will frustrate golfers too. The fairway is generous enough for golfers to be confident of finding the fairway although deep sand left and rough and even water if right will punish the errant.

The 2nd shot is the main challenge on the this hole. A downhill approach to a green with elevation at the front makes it difficult to land the ball short and run on to the green. Also, due to the downhill nature of the hole, it will be easy enough fore golfers to go long, which will make par trickier.

Hole 13
497 yards: Par 4

Less than confident drivers may find severe difficulty on this hole. Drivers going long off the tee have a canal to contend with all the way down the right of the hole. Players going left from the tee - too far left - will find themselves in a nasty bunker and much too far away to make the green. The canal is a feature of the hole all the way down the right of the hole. Any semblance of wind on this hole will make this hole a potentially brutal test. In approaching the green, players nervous of the canal on the right bring sand to the left of the hole in to play also. This is a tough hole, unless you hit it straight. Two good, straight blows, will make golfers wonder what all the fuss is about, but that is easier said than done.

Hole 14
238 yards: Par 3

Suddenly the course heads for home along the coast. Coast = potential for greater winds and potentially a huge variation in potential club selections. Players may choose conservative front right approach to this green as this really is the only reasonable place to miss the green. This hole can ruin the scorecard of players who push left off the tee. The green itself is not so challenging and any player finding the putting surface can be confident of a solid two putt.

Hole 15
444 yards: Par 4

The 15th represents the start of a 4 hole implosion from Calcavecchia in the 1991 Ryder Cup which allowed Colin Montgomerie to recover from 4 down, halve the match and almost help rescue the Ryder Cup for Europe. The wind made it a nightmare stretch that day, which made conditions almost impossible. Pete Dye has since made the course apparently more accessible should similar conditions ensue, but that is a relative statement.

In mild conditions, this hole may yield plenty of birdie opportunities as a good drive will set up a shortish iron in to what is a none too difficult to hit green. There is trouble left, long right and to the back of the hole, but players in fair conditions should handle this hole fairly comfortably.

Hole 16
581 yards: Par 5

This hole is likely to play as a genuine 3 shot approach hole, unless players get help with a prevailing wind. The tee shot is easy enough; over a pond and to a generous enough fairway. The second shot leaves a decision for golfers as the green kinks right and narrows before opening up to the left for an approach to the green. Players carrying the sand on the right with their second will be rewarded with a wedge in to an open green. Players who have to play their shot shorter and left will face a tough time getting their third shot close.

Hole 17
223 yards: Par 3

An easy enough par 3 next. Well, maybe not quite so. I mentioned Monty winning 4 straight to halve in 1991. Well, he played his shot in to the water here before his opponent shanked his shot horribly in to the water and lost the hole after him. This is one of the scariest shots in golf and any player holding a slender 1 shot lead on Sunday will be tested fully with this tee shot. If the wind blows, good luck. Wind will dictate whether this is a 3 wood, 8 iron or somewhere in between. Shorter players may even choose to bail left and short. Or at least try to. A player finding the surface to hold their position on 17 will have earned their chance to win on 17.

Hole 18
501 yards: Par 4

18 is another extremely tough proposition. Players can not miss right and this tee shot very much favours a left to right tee shot which be sent out left and away from trouble. However, unless down the right of the fairway, players probably face a right to left approach as their best shot shape in to the green. The second shot is likely uphill, but the green itself is relatively welcoming. Wind may prove this hole's greatest ally and can make for a brutally long test, with constant trouble for those errant off the tee.

In summary, a lot of holes seem to favour a right to left shot, but the first brief here will be to stay in play. At 7,600 yards+, players can not afford to be overly conservative this week. Fans of Tiger should note his caution off the tee at the open recently. Some holes necessitate driver and most will clearly yield better scores more often if attacked. If the wind does blow and if the weather is indifferent (initial forecasts are varied from what I have seen), level par will be a good score. Look for players this week who are confident to put the ball out there from the tee with control.

I made a mistake in the British Open (as did many) in backing players with the expectation of adverse conditions. Whether that pays or not here is yet to be seen, but either way, good tee to green players are essential here.

Regards

Dave (OneBet)

OneBet Racing Selections - 2nd August

2012-08-02T04:05:00.001-07:00

2nd August

Goodwood
14.15 - Opinion 10/1 - 1pt ew, OneBet Longshot - Hefner 20/1 - 1pt ew -4PTS
14.45 - Master of War 10/3 - 2pt Win -2PTS
15.15 - Saddlers Rock 15/8 - 3pt Win WON@2/1 +6PTS
15.45 - Midnight Soprano 8/1 - 2pt Win -2PTS
16.20 - Botanica 4/1 - 2pt Win -2PTS
16.55 - Dutch Rose 9/1 - 1pt ew -2PTS
17.20 - Marias Choice 16/1 - 1pt ew , Cresta Star 16/1 - 1pt ew -4PTS

Meeting Total:-10PTS

Golf tips - Reno Tahoe Open and WGC Bridgestone outright selections

2012-08-01T18:36:00.004-07:00

Reno Tahoe selections
1.5pts EW John Rollins at 28/1 (Coral)
1.5pts EW Pat Perez at 28/1 (Various)
1pt EW Vaughn Taylor at 66/1 (Various)
1pt EW Roland Thatcher at 100/1 (Various)

WGC Brigestone
1st round leader: 1pt EW Scott Piercy at 80/1 (Various)
1pt EW Lee Westwood at 20/1 (Various)
1pt EW Hunter Mahan at 25/1 (Various)
1pt EW Bo Van Pelt at 40/1 (Various)
1pt EW Jason Dufner at 30/1 (BetVictor)

Safe to say I am nervous about no Tiger in my WGC tips. However, I am willing to avoid a big bet on Woods at 5/1 - it is either that or a cover bet for a token 2pt win or so. I am not comvinced he is yet a 5/1 shot in this class of field, despite his winning 4 events since the end of last year on courses where he has previously thrived. It is no surprise to me if he does win, but betting is all about value. I'm not convinced.

Paddy Power and SkyBet offer a without Woods market. However, I am not going to put those tips up here, due to the lack of bookmakers offering this bet Tempting though. I have gone for good drivers who can dial in with irons and really like the fact that Westwood has drifted after a loss of form and faith in his irons at the British Open. The pressure is different here and he can make a big play for a first WGC title if he goes well this week. Hope he starts well and then does not go to sleep in rounds 2 and 3, as he has a few times in this event.

Hunter misfired badly last week, but this is a different kind of tournament.Van Pelt and Dufner have been fitting the brief most weeks. It is a different test here, but they should still feature

OneBet Racing Selections - 1st August

2012-08-01T02:21:00.001-07:00

1st August

Goodwood
14.00 - Cape Express 13/2 - 2pt Win -2PTS
14.35 - Olympic Glory 7/2 - 2pt Win +7PTS
15.10 - Frankel - Win No Bet
15.45 - Scatter Dice 15/2 - 2pt Win -2PTS
16.20 - Pearl Sea 2/1 - 3pt Win WON +6PTS, OneBet Longshot - Arbah 22/1 1pt ew -2PTS
16.55 - Keene Dancer 9/2 2pt Win -2PTS
17.30 - Dubawi Dancer NAP 2/1 - 3pt Win -3PTS

Meeting Total: +2PTS

Golf tips - RBC Canadian Open Outright selections

2012-07-25T15:13:00.000-07:00

Outright Selections
2pts EW Hunter Mahan at 14/1 (Various)
1pt EW Charley Hoffman at 80/1 (Various)
1pt EW Jerry Kelly at 80/1 (Various)
1pt EW Greg Owen at 125/1 (Various)

My bets were advised earlier today on twitter; I preferred to give you the tips in good time, rather than wait for the chance to write a preview. There is a follow link at the top of the page if you wish to catch the ramblings of me or my partner (@onebetUK)

OK. To this week's event. I will keep it brief, because by now, a lot of the insights that we all use for betting will have been shared already by others pundits.

For any of you yet to have a bet and just thinking of doing a quick check on players who have done well at this event in the last year or two, it is worth noting the venue here has not been used for the Canadian Open since 2006 (and 2003 before that). Then 44 year old Bob Tway prevailed in a play-off over Brad Faxon here in 2003, with 36 year old Jim Furyk winning next time round at Hamilton in 2006. Seems that experience can prevail here. Those looking at last year's winner Sean O'Hair, will also have taken encouragement in his 3rd place finish here in 2006.

Hamilton GC is a thinking man's course. Grip it and rip it does not apply here. Fairways are tight and the penalty for missing the fairway plenty severe enough for longest to be unlikely to equal best. This course is very much all about finding fairways and greens time and again. The greens are quite small here, so some importance must be placed upon scrambling too, as particularly errant players will have to be able to get up and down most of the time to keep their score ticking over. I have paid some attention to those players bent poa annua positive on the greens, but this is a lesser statistic for me this week. Give me a guy in control of his golf ball and we will not be far wrong.

Furyk won here with -14 and Tway 3 years earlier with -21. So, we want solid players who can score. the credentials of Furyk are obvious this time around, but I question whether he will dial in enough on all 4 days to post the score required. However, I am more than willing to accept I may be wrong on that one. Furyk ranks 4 in my ranks and would probably have made the team where he 8th favourite and not 4th. We can all dream sometimes.

So, to the selections.

Hunter Mahan leaps out at me this week and is the clear number one in my system ranks. The headline reason this is that Mahan has been stunning of late from tee to green. In my Lyoness Open preview (link here), observes will have noted I have also placed Mahan in a double with Chris Wood, who is placed OK at -1 after round 1 in Austria. Hunter Mahan has the following driving accuracy states in the last 4 events : 6th (British Open), 3rd, 2nd, 27th (US Open). The two strong positives in the majors are relevant here. If you can drive well at Lytham and Olympic, Hamilton will look like a nice place to relax from the tee. Well, not quite, but you get my point.

Hunter's form is not great here with a 40-odd and 60-odd last two times, but he does have some form in Canada, ranking 14th in my event ranks (4th 2004, 5th 2007, 17th 2010 the highlights). Mahan also knows how to putt on Bentgrass, winning at Bridgestone and the Shell Open in recent years, with other strong finishes along the way on bent surfaces. I also like the way his results are shaping up. Mahan usually hints at solid form before blasting in to contention and either winning or going close. Before Winning the Shell Houston earlier this year, Mahan finished 15/24/24/42. Good solid paychecks before all clicked. From the PGA last year, Mahan went 19/43/8/42 before then going 2/4. Before winning the WGC, Mahan went 37/17. He is one of those players who lulls you in to a false sense of security before landing big. I feel we have a real chance with Hunter this week.

2nd in my system ranks is Bo Van Pelt. He would almost definitely have been on my team had the 30s still been available. I don't like the number of times he has finished just outside the places, however, and with the price coming in to 25s, I have to leave him here. Suffice to say, if he wins, I will be lamenting on twitter and maybe quoting this very sentence.

Charley Hoffman is next and this pick would not have come naturally at all. However, that is why I have a system and on closer inspection, he was certainly worth a play this week at pretty big odds. Hoffman is finally starting to play again, after a relatively lean spell post his eye-catching Deutsche Bank win of 2010. Hoffman missed out somewhat last time at Greenbrier, decelerating to 67th after a fast start (9th after day 1). However, in 3 of the 4 prior tournaments he had been 13th, 2nd and 22nd. Good omens then for my 5th ranked system player. Hoffman has also done well in this event on his 2 previous visits, finishing 28th in 2008 and 4th in 2010. The next comment is too much of a generalisation, but does hold some truth: Canadian Opens are typically played on shortish, tight tracks. So, Hoffman's Canadian Open form should be seen as a positive trend, despite the fact it is a new course this year for Hoffman. Hoffman is hitting greens, ranking 2nd, 12th, 20th and 23rd in 4 of his last 5 events. There are few in the field who can match that sort of form (although 3 of them are also selected in my picks above). I also like the fact that Hoffman can score well enough when in form to go away from most players in the field. He shot -22 to win the Deutsche Bank and recently in finishing 2nd at the Travelers, shot -13. That sort of fits the brief this week and I am happy to roll the dice here.

Talking of dice rolling, let's talk about my 2 triple figure picks. Jerry Kelly is an experienced guy, which dovetails nicely with the profile of previous winners Furyk and Tway. Kelly does not get it done so often these days, although the Canadian Open last year was the springboard for a fine run of 7 top 26 finishes in the last 8 events of the season. Kelly has started his run of form a little earlier this year, entering this week on a run of 37th/12th/36th/13th. None of those events screamed for accuracy quite like this one and on a short tight track, we find the most likely route for Kelly to feature. 11th, 2nd, 20th and 2nd for driving accuracy in the last 4 events and 80th, 5th, 7th and 22nd for greens hit tells you this man is in by far his best ball striking form of the season. 20th for total putts last week at Annandale does not put me off at all either. My final encouragement for Kelly is that he sits 11th in my event form ranks, having been 5th in 2009 and 2005. He doesn't land often, but I am happy to side with Kelly here.

I have talked about Greg Owen in recent player form guides, as he is having a very consistent season. My reservation usually is about whether he can go on and compete for the win, rather than finish "nicely". the Greenbrier rather spoiled the run, but Owen finished 9th, 11th and 17th prior to that. Despite the MC and then a solid 54th at the Open, Owen's stats continue to show prowess where it matters. Accuracy. 22nd for accuracy at the British and 47th for GIR was OK. However, prior to the Greenbriers (where he was still 23rd in greens for the holes he did play), Owen finished in the top 7 for greens hit in 3 straight events. I want him on my team here at a whopping 125/1. I think the place potential is much better than the 30+/1 odds suggest and I am really happy to have him on board. Downsides are no Canadian Opens since 2007 and a so-so 60th here in 2006. However, I think he is in a very good place right now and if he can recapture the groove he has had recently with his irons, he could be in for a big week

So much for the short preview...................

Regards

Dave (OneBet)

Golf Tips Lyoness Open Outright selections

2012-07-24T15:30:00.000-07:00

Outright selections
1.5pts EW Chris Wood at 25/1 (Various)
1pt EW Anthony Wall at 35/1 (Various)
1pt EW Ignacio Garrido at 55/1 (Bet365)
0.5pts EW Steven O'Hara at 175/1 (SkyBet, 150/1 various)
0.5pts EW Adam Gee at 300/1 (Various)

0.3pts EW Chris Wood/Hunter Mahan double at 389/1 (BlueSq, 344/1 various)

A brief synopsis of my selections for this event, which starts on Wednesday.

Diamond Country Club has hosted the last two Austrian Opens prior to this year and is again used in 2012, albeit under the new and distinctly unappealing banner of the Lyoness Open. Looking at past trends for the last two years, we see the importance clearly of finding greens and fairways. Good putters will thrive here on relatively good greens, but the trick to this course is about consistently finding the short stuff.

This year, with damp conditions and the threat of some adverse weather during the week, this near 7,400 yard course may play tough for some of the tour's shorter hitters. Therefore, I believe the brief is slightly different to usual desired attributes. I want players who trend well in total driving (distance and accuracy) and control their irons consistently.

My final point is a lesser one over 4 days, but certainly can be a factor early on day 1. If looking to trade on Betfair or looking at 1st round leader bets, it may pay to select players who start early on Wednesday from the 10th tee. Players starting on 10, play the following hole ranks in their first 6 holes: 17, 8, 15, 16, 6, 11. It gets tougher after that and the 5 hole stretch from 16 through 2 is the toughest on the course, but I would rather have a player onside who has got their rhythm and a decent start before facing this challenge. I have backed Gee, O'Hara and Wood on Betfair personally with a view to trading before the 16th hole (thier 7th). All 3 start early, all 3 start on the 10th and all 3 have chances in my view here, as my preview below will detail.

So, given it is Tuesday night and I am neglecting my PGA obligations to date, I am going to move straight to my selections.

Chris Wood finally breaks his duck this week, or so my system says. In this quality of field, Wood's solid recent tour-wide stats of around 40th for driving distance, accuracy and GIR is both solid and also better than the great majority of this field. With a fair wind, Wood would have two titles to his name already this season, having produced a stunning final round in Sicily, which was a shot shy of Olesen's debut winning total. In the BMW international Open, Wood narrowly missed the play-off having looked the winner at various stages of the final round. The number of recent first time winners (Olesen, Donaldson, Weisberger, Willett) should give Wood confidence that he can be next. He may not get a better chance than this. I have also added a small double with Wood and Mahan. I really do think that Wood should go well here. He starts on the easier holes and that should hopefully give him the springboard to get involved and stay involved. As I will summarise with my Canadian Open preview, I am equally bullish about the chances for Hunter Mahan so am happy to play a small double.

Anthony Wall has started to threaten leaderboards again after a pretty lean spell in the last couple of years. In the last 10 events, wall has been in the top 6 3 times, the highlight of which was a recent T2nd behind Jamie Donaldson in the Irish Open. I love tournaments where my top system picks are not at the head of the betting and Wall is 2nd in my ranks this week. While Olesen and Weisberger have ability in abundance, they are far from reliable market leaders. Wall does not hit the ball as far as the biggest hitters, but he is not quite short either. However, Wall makes the team due to his ball striking prowess. A repeat of his -14 at the Irish Open will see him go very close this week.

Ignacio Garrido is a big box ticker for this event in terms of the photo-fit player we want here. The concern as usual is whether Garrido has the fitness to contend over 4 days. I am very happy to take the chance at 55/1. Garrido's finishes are not exactly stellar this year, although 4 finishes between 9th and 11th (including last time out, 11th at the Scottish Open) shows that he can still perform very solidly on tour. It is 9 years now since Garrido last prevailed, but I really believe he can contend this week. 11th last time out as mentioned, Garrido enters this week in good form. Garrido has good season long stats for greens hit and driving accuracy and he ranks the best in my recent form ranks for these two metrics. Expect Garrido to play very solidly this week, with one big round potentially pushing him right in to contention.

Some longer shots to finish. Steve O'Hara missed the cut here last year, which initially is a negative of course. However, O'Hara's ball striking in recent weeks is his best of the season and he can go close if he repeats that form here. In my recent form ranks on tour, O'Hara ranks 37th for driving distance, 33rd for accuracy and 16th for greens in regulation. 175/1 is massive and I a more than happy to chance that O'Hara can trouble the places this week.

Adam Gee is way out of left field, but I am basically playing that this 300/1 shot can dial in with his irons and contend. Gee's season long stats are impressive for driving distance and GIR, with a none too bad driving accuracy stat either. Often let down by his putting, I am playing here that Gee finds his share of greens, but also is aided by both a true putting challenge on fine greens but also a slower challenge, with the moisture slowing the surface and helping to reduce the edge of the great putters.

Regards

Dave (OneBet)

OneBet Racing Selections 21st July

2012-07-21T03:14:00.000-07:00

21st July

Cartmel
14.25 Foundry Square 5/2 - 2pt Win WON +4.5PTS
15.00 Kilvergan Boy 3/1 - 2pw Win -2PTS
15.35 Colditz 4/1 - 2pt Win -2PTS
16.10 Postmaster 7/1 - 1pt ew -2PTS
16.50 Silverlord 8/1 - 1pt ew -2PTS
17.25 Lieutenant Miller 8/1 - 2pt Win -2PTS, Royal Riviera 12/1 1pt ew NR
17.55 Desolait 3/1 -2pt Win WON +6PTS

Meeting Total: +0.5PTS

Market Rasen
13.45 Ctappers 3/1 - 2pt Win WON +6PTS
14.15 DJ Milan 10/1 - 1p ew -2PTS
14.50 Absinthe 5/1 - 2pt Win =2PTS
15.25 Alco 5/1 - 2pt Win, OneBet Longshot - Stonethrower 33/1 - 1pt ew -4PTS
16.00 Compton Blue 9/1 - 1pt ew -2PTS
16.40 Ballbough Gorta 6/4 - 3pt Win -3PTS
17.15 Well Green 9/2 - 2pt Win -2PTS

Meeting Total: -9PTS

Daily Total: -8.5PTS

Golf tips - British Open Midway Considerations

2012-07-21T03:02:00.002-07:00

Midpoint selection

1pt EW Peter Hanson at 150/1 (Various)

At time of writing, the third round of the Open has just commenced, with the awe inspiring Tom Watson missing a 2 footer on 17 and then holing a 25 footer on 18 to make the cut and join pre-tournament 2nd favourite in the first two-ball of the day (after Luiten went out as a single).

On a personal note, I selected players ready to see a true test of links golf, convinced I had the right calibre of player onside to cope better than most. What we have seen is a mild and almost limp event, which has allowed players to dial in and play target golf.............or so the theory goes.

Snedeker and Scott show how easy the course is playing to date, with Snedeker hitting well over 80% of greens despite less than stellar accuracy off the tee. It is a real surprise to me then that only 26 other players have managed to break par. There have been comments about players struggling to readjust to the benign conditions having practiced low punch shots, chip and run shots and worked generally on coping with adversity in the build up. This is a factor of course, but I am surprised at the level of frankly poor play to date. Players seem to be struggling to reset and attack the golf course. Snedeker and Scott clearly have taken the course for what it is to date and that stands them on good stead today, as more of the same weather wise is expected. The question is whether either of the leaders can fare well today and hold on when the weather is expected to really pick up tomorrow. Let's see if we can find any indicators.

The first chart below shows the position of the eventual winner after 36 holes since 2001.

Aside from 2001, all winners have been inside the top 15 at halfway. Indeed, in all years bar 2001 and 2007, all winners have been inside the top 10 at this stage. In 5 of the 11 years, the halfway leader or co-leader has gone on to win the event. 2001 takes on a little added significance here of course, as this was the last British Open at Lytham. Duval sat at level par 142 (It was a par 71 in 2001) and 7 shots back of Monty's lead, before romping through the field with -10 over the weekend, eventually winning easily by 3 shots. clearly, it can be done, but it takes a special effort. In the previous Lytham Open in 1996, Tom Lehman led at the end of each round and went on to win despite a closing 73.

The logic for a hero charge from deep would appear to be along these lines - If the top two stall today and the lead is somewhere between -8 and -10 at the close of play, any player who can take advantage of mild conditions today and shoot -5 to -7 will surge up the leaderboard. We are on Goosen who is Even par and T28th. So, let's surmise with him - always nice to dream. If Goosen were to shoot 64 today and sit at -6, he would be in the hunt. Tomorrow in expected tough conditions, a round of level par may yet see him challenge for the title. Sounds easy huh? In reality, I would be surprised to see the lead remain at -10 and so the main chance appears to be for those in a little closer order having a good day and threatening -10 by the close. Els is 7 off and has to be considered unlikely from there (especially with the way he is putting). For me, it is a likely 9 horse race for those -4 and better - the top 9 is full of top notch players, all of whom can fit my brief for what is required to come through and win.............and Thomas Aiken. I might regret that dismissal come Sunday, but, talented though he is, I will be surprised if he gets near winning this event.

The next chart shows where players have been at half way before going on to place.

The first thing that strikes me as interesting is the midway position of the entire top 5 in 2001 (including ties). 2001 is the only year in which no player placing was even in the top 5 at the halfway stage. Midway positions are as follows in 2001: 35th, 6th, 17th, 35th, 9th, 17th, 26th, 17th, 26th. Repeated numbers indicate tied positions. So, only 2 players placing were in the top 10, with the other 6th 17th or worse at this stage. So, it can be done.

In 2002 and 2003, players were able to come from the cut line to place. In fact, each year there is a decent story for players coming from deep to place. Headlines as follows:

2001: 35th halfway to 1st (Duval)

2002: 68th to 2nd (Elkington)

2003: 11th to 2nd (Vijay Singh. Brian Davis went from 57th to 6th)

2004: 37th to 4th (Westwood)

2005: 70th to 5th (Ogilvy)

2006: (22nd to 5th (Tanihara)

2007: 42nd to 4th (Richard Green)

2008: 52nd to 3rd (Stenson)

2009: 53rd to 5th (Donald)

2010: 38th to 3rd (McIlroy)

2011 : 19th to 5th (Fowler/Kim)

So, if you can find a player at huge odds who finds his groove and gets tough tomorrow, there is genuine hope that a player can place.

Given the two charts above, I would suggest it is easier to win big by backing a player at huge odds who goes on to place than it is to back a longshot to come and win. Anybody who selects a player to win from below Ernie in 10th is at best brave. Recall that Duval won from 35th, but the gap was "only" seven at that stage. The flip side to this is that Duval was 7 back after round 2, but actually led the field after round 3.

Now let's analyse our leaderboard. The chart below shows how our players have fared in the last two years when in the top 20 at halfway. Note that my stats are taken from the PGA and European tour only, so I don't have anything here for the likes of Steven Alker, who sits T11th.

How it works:

Those columns marked "current position" show the event leaderboard as it stands. "Halfway position 2011/2012" shows how many top 20s a player has had and their average position within the top 20. The performance columns show how a player has performed from halfway to the end, with the rank on the right showing who has performed best.

Luke Donald ranks first above. In 18 top 20 halfway positions, his average improvement has gone from 9.2 to 5.8 by the end. That is a very strong improvement, but I just do not fancy he hangs on when it gets wild tomorrow.

Peter Hanson is interesting. In a not dissimilar position in the Masters, we tipped him at 80/1 and he duly went on to storm through the field and lead after round 3, eventually finishing 3rd. Hanson, when in the top 15 in 2011 and 2012 at halfway, produced the following finishes: 15th, 6th, 10th, 3rd, 4th, 2nd, 4th, 3rd, 3rd. 6 top 4s in 9 events where he has been top 15 is strong. If you look at the trend, the top 4 finishes are the last 6 numbers. Hanson is 150/1 and given he can play tough conditions too, I am going to get him onside at what I consider to be a huge 150/1 with 4 places available in the place market. 37.5/1 that Hanson makes up 3 shots on the field and places is massive value given that he keeps doing exactly that over the weekend.

So what of the leaders? It is interesting that none of those currently in the top 5 bar Paul Lawrie rank inside the top 10 here. This includes Tiger, partly because he has been top 3 in 4 majors since his break from the game, none of which have produced anything better than a 4th place finish. There is a clear suggestion that some of these guys will fall away, which adds a little more weight to the theory that a guy like Peter Hanson can score.

Since 2010, Snedeker has performed as follows when top 10 at halfway (halfway position followed by finishing position in brackets) : 6(43), 1(8), 1(5), 1(4), 9(1), 7(15), 3(11), 8(33), 4(3), 7(22), 10(16), 8(8), 2(1), 7(17)

Snedeker goes backwards very much more often than not. 3 times he had led at this stage, with nothing better than 4th by the end.

And the same for Adam Scott: 7(9), 7(9), 6(11), 8(6), 8(23), 10(3), 1(1), 9(67), 1(8), 1(6), 9(4), 4(4), 3(13), 5(15)

So, Scott is much more solid than Sendeker, but still hardly compelling. When the wind blows, Scott had best hope he has a few shots on the field I fancy.

I am going to stick with a single selection here, but there is genuine encouragement for those chasing when looking at the head of the field. I haven't talked about Tiger and will not really say much. I have to leave him at 3/1. I simply do not have faith that he copes well tomorrow for reasons of pressure and scrutiny and the ability of him either utilise driver well if winds dictate he must, or control long irons to the green in cross-winds, if he does keep the driver in the his bag

I personally am going to lay Snedeker, but will not adivse as it is a costly exercise. Unfortunately, Goosen is 10 back so can not readily be traded. I will hold on and hope for that 65.

Regards

Dave (OneBet)

Golf Tips - True South Classic Outright Selections

2012-07-18T03:47:00.003-07:00

Outright selections
1.5pts EW Roberto Castro at 28/1 (Various)
1pt EW Boo Weekley at 66/1 (Various)
1.25pts EW Joe Durant at 100/1 (Coral)

Hi all,

I am blog tipping exhausted this week after the British Open and will not have chance to provide a sound update on this event. However, I have run the model according to the attributes I perceive as key this week and Joe Durant ranks 1, Boo Weekley 3 and Roberto Castro 4. Favourite De Jonge is 2nd in my ranks and not quite justifiable value, despite having obvious claims here.

I am very happy to back my system here, as each tip makes sense when looking further at stats and recent trend lines in key areas.

I have only selected 3 players, due to the rife inconsistency in the field. Durant for me is exceptional value and I am happy to risk an extra half point on him here.

Regards

Dave (OneBet)

Golf tips - British Open special bets

2012-07-18T01:28:00.002-07:00

British Open outright selections http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/golf-tips-british-open-outright_17.html
British Open tournament form guide http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/golf-tips-british-open-tournament-form.html
British Open Player form guide (table only) http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/golf-tips-british-open-form-guide-table.html

Selections

Top nationality markets
Top Australasian
1.5pts EW Marcus Fraser at 16/1 (3 places, 1/4 odds for a place, Stan James)

Top Continental European
1pt EW Fredrik Jacobson at 14/1 (4 places, 1/4 odds wth Coral/Totesport)

Already advised
Top South African
1.5pts EW Retief Goosen top South African at 10/1 (BlueSq)

1st round leader
0.2pts EW Russ Cochran at 500/1 (BetVictor)
0.2pts EW Johnson Wagner at 250/1 (Betfred/Totesport)
0.2pts EW James Morrison at 200/1 (Various)
0.2pts EW Davis Love III at 125/1 (Various)
0.2pts EW Darren Clarke at 125/1 (Various)

Golf Tips - British Open Outright selections

2012-07-17T20:16:00.001-07:00

Outright selections
1.5pts EW Jason Dufner at 50/1 (Various, but take 50s with BetVictor)
1pt EW BenCurtis at 100/1 (Various, but take 6 places with BetVictor)
0.5pts EW John Huh at 300/1 (Various, but take 6 places)
0.5pts EW Marcus Fraser at 250/1 (Various, but take 6 places with BetVictor)

already advised
1pt EW Raphael Jacquelin at 150/1 (Paddy Power, 7 places)
2pts EW Lee Westwood at 16/1 (Various, but take Paddy Power's 7 places)
2pts win Retief Goosen at 180 (Betfair only, with a view to trade)

Specials bet
1.5pts EW Retief Goosen top South African at 10/1 (BlueSq)

British Open tournament form guide http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/golf-tips-british-open-tournament-form.html
British Open Player form guide (table only) http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/golf-tips-british-open-form-guide-table.html
British Open special bets http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/golf-tips-british-open-special-bets.html

Tournament preview
Like no other event, I have really struggled to settle upon my selections this week. The Open Championship is truly the most bewildering event in which to settle on a group of golfers with confidence for 2 headline reasons. First, links golf at its toughest can disarm the greatest and most able golfer. Second, the case for so many can be written that whittling potential challengers down to a select few is so tough.

With the winners in the last 10 years including the likes of Clarke, Ben Curtis (then, very much unfancied), Todd Hamilton, Louis Oosthuizen (400/1 back then) and Stewart Cink, we can clearly see that the Open can throw up a huge range of potential winners in addition to the obvious candidates at the head of the market. With Tiger and Lee Westwood the only players below 20/1 in the betting, there genuinely is an Open feel to this week's event. Add in a string of first time winners in recent majors and an ongoing jostle for the number 1 spot and it is hard to be definitive about this most open of majors.

However, while uncertainty reigns at the top of world golf, so opportunities exist elsewhere to prosper.

Lytham is a great test of a golfer's ability and has thrown up a number of winners who are in the hall of frame bracket over the years. A par 70 for the first time (par 71 previously) and measuring longer by almost 200 yards since the Open was last here in 2001, Lytham has been toughened slightly this time around in terms of the length of the course. However, it appears without question that this golf course will bare its teeth more this time. The reason for this is a combination of weather and the hazards on the course. England has endured a particularly wet Summer, which has meant that links courses up and down the country are greener than usual and the rough made lusher. Lytham's rough was tough enough without this added complication and the premium on driving well is heightened as a result. Immediately following a pratice round, Tiger Woods described the thickest parts of the rough as "almost unplayable" and Darren Clarke was unequivocal in his assertion that driving accuracy over distance was the key to going well here.

The forecast for the week is also indifferent, but at time of writing, there is no clear indication that early/late starters will be significantly better or worse off than late/early starters. Given this, I am just picking golfers I fancy to win.

The photofit for this week's winner first neglects the specific course used for this year's open. Links golf is a test of patience and mental strength, and fortitude when things do not go well. It is a also a test of imagination and shot-making ability, allied to an ability to maintain form and confidence in a swing that will be challenged by varying breeze. Above all, course management is king.

Lytham specifically demands good ball strikers who can keep the ball in play particularly from the tee. Around the green, it is necessary to scramble well, unless you can outplay the field by hitting more greens in regulation. The greens are a little slower here, which may equalise the field somewhat in putting. However, nerve will be required in converting the likely many testing putts from 3-8 feet that a golfer will have this week. Also of note is the fact that David Duval won on a much duskier Lytham in 2001 with a score of -10, having played the 3 pars 5s in -10 for the week. The 6th hole is a par 4 now, but again, a player will want to maximise on the par 5s and the 6th hole this week if they want to score positively.

I have already mentioned the penal rough. In addition to this, 206 strategically placed and by and large nightmarish to escape bunkers await careless or errant golfers this week. Keeping the ball on the short stuff will be utterly critical.

My selections
I have already discussed the merits of Goosen, Westwood and Jacquelin in earlier previews, but I will emphasise the key points here.

As I said in my preview of a couple of weeks ago I was keen to get Jacquelin onside before his price contracted and after a good finish at the Open De France and a further good display in Scotland last week, Jacquelin has indeed shortened in the betting. Ladbrokes are still holding out at 150s, but the 7 places at 150s advised has now long gone. Jacquelin lay 107th after round 1 of the Open Championship last year, but then proceeded to play some tremendous golf in difficult conditions to finish 8th. In rounds 2-4, Jacquelin produced the 1st, 5th and 3rd best rounds of the day to charge up the leaderboard. Recent form coming in this year is strong too. In the last 6 events, Jacquelin has been 18th, 21st (US Open), 3rd and 16th to confirm he is playing well more often than not right now. Jacquelin also played Lytham in 2001, finishing a highly encouraging 13th. Jacquelin is a player in form, with links history, Lytham history and an affinity for playing tough courses well. My nagging doubt re Jacquelin is his accuracy off the tee. He has improved of late, but must drive the ball really solidly if he wants to really get in the mix this week. An excellent scrambler, which means he can often make par, but he will need to sharpen up off the tee to truly contend. At 150/1, I think there is plenty enough value to find out.

As soon as you place a higher premium on total driving, hitting greens and generally displaying great ball striking prowess, thoughts immediately turn to Lee Westwood. So often the nearly man in majors, I suspect some people will question the wisdom of this choice. Question is, who do you trust more to get in the mix? Put simply, Westwood is the ONLY consistent performer in majors in the last 3 years. Sure, some such as Mahan have done better than most and Dufner stands up well in the last 3 major events, but Westwood, with 8 tops 10s in 11 major starts, 6 of which were top 3s, is the go to man for me this week. At 16/1, I am getting 3/1 the place and this on a man who has been profitable at evens to place over the last 11 majors. Westwood has actually never placed in a major held in England, which is a strange anomaly, but I do not think there is a specific factor which makes that so. I also like the theoretical grace he gets here from slower putting surfaces, which hopefully will allow him to roll his putts as well as the majority of the field. Although some doubts exist from his slip last time out, which cause his horrific start to round 3 in France, I do not think he would have entertained playing round 4 had he been anything but comfortable. We are with Westwood here for the second straight major. Odds are, we get a place and hopefully better.

I will skip to Jason Dufner next, because I want to continue a theme mentioned with Westwood above. Dufner is not the greatest putter on tour, but I do not think it will be as costly as other events such as the Masters. For some time now, Dufners ball striking stats have been nothing short of sensational. Also, as mentioned above, Dufner is now demonstrating that he is ready to contend for Majors having all but won the PGA last year, led the Masters at halfway and then finished a fine 4th at the US Open. Dufner has nothing here in terms of demonstrable British Open form, but he is a different beast now and I would not be surprised to see him right there come Sunday evening. Dufner is 3rd in my recent GIR stats on the PGA tour and sits 23rd for driving accuracy, whilst still 40th for driving distance. Add also that Dufner is a brilliant scrambler, is top 5 for bogey avoidance on tour and has two first places, a 2nd and 4th in the last 5 events and we have an outstanding player at 50/1. Dufner is lightly raced, having not teed it up since the US Open. Whether this is good or bad remains to be seen, but 50/1 could look like the price of the year in a few days time.

I explained my summary logic for Retief Goosen in the tounrament form guide (link above). Retief Goosen is a model of consistency in this event and I believe 110/1 and 7 places from Paddy Power will attract a steady stream of bets as punters do their homework...........or read this. Goosen missed lat year, but in 10 straight years prior, Goosen averaged a 12th placed finish, which is stunning consistency around a variety of links courses. This is Goosen's run in those 10 years, Lytham 2001 first: 13th, 8th, 10th, 7th, 5th, 14th, 23rd, 32nd, 5th, 6th. Make no mistake, Goosen is actually likely to keep punters interested come the final day. Goosen has shot nothing worse than 76 in his last 40 rounds, which is tremendous consistency. Although weather may be a factor, I am going to play that Goosen's consistency gives us a run this week. There is currently strong liquidity for Goosen at 180 on Betfair and that is the advised play for me here. I think there is every chance that Goosen is hovering somewhere within 5 shots of the summit come the weekend, which could yield a strong opportunity to trade. Goosen has a 5th, 10th and 23rd in his last 5 starts too, to show that his recent form stands up pretty well (his other two events were MCs). The 5th was in the Volvo Matchplay in Spain (where he over-performed versus expectation). His 10th was at the super-tough US Open and his 23rd at the tough Open De France. Goosen then has served warning that he is ready to again contend where the brief is for players that can grind and plot their way around the course. I will put some specials up later in the week, but the 10/1 with 3 places for top South African by BlueSq is one of the best bets I have seen in a long time. Sure, there are some great South Africans out there, but if Goosen does what he does every time he tees it up in this event, he is almost certain to at least place.

Some longer shots to finish. Ben Curtis is very attractive at 100/1. A winner this year, and 1st in 2003 and 7th and 8th in 2007/8 at the British Open makes the headline chances of Curtis strong here. Curtis is having a bit of a renaissance on tour this year, having done little since last winning in 2006. His fine finishes in the British Open in 2007 and 2008 show that he can perform here however strong his general game is on tour. The 2008 winning score was +3, showing that if it does get really tough this week, he can hang around. In 2003, Curtis won with a score of -1, which may look very handy after 72 holes around this course if repeated this year. Curtis' form dipped a little after winning earlier this year, but there are signs that his form is coming back. Curtis' driving accuracy and GIr stats are well in the top 10 on tour this year. In my recent ranks, Curtis has demonstrated that he is maintaining that sort of ball striking ability, sitting 24th in driving accuracy and 27th in GIR. His recent putting has been fairly average and it is that in the main which has slower his progress. However, like Westwood and Dufner, I think that is a lessened factor here. Curtis is a great option at a triple figure price.

We highlighted earlier some of the big priced winners in the last 10 years, Curtis included. In addition to Jacquelin and Curtis who are both triple figure odds, I am going to players at really big prices. John Huh is 300/1 here, but has had a real strong debut year on tour to date. Where I like his chances here is that he is one of the most accurate players on tour. For driving accuracy and GIR, Huh is 24th and 25th respectively on the PGA tour in my recent ranks and sits inside the top 10 on tour for the season is driving accuracy. Generally a very good putter, Huh may struggle if he starts missing greens. However, it would not surprise me at all if he were to get hot early and hang around near the top of the leaderboard. At 300/1, Huh is a great price.

Marcus Fraser is in great shape on the European tour this season. In tough conditions 3 starts ago, Fraser was edged in a play-off for the title. This was the 4th top 6 of the season for Fraser, who currently sits inside the top 20 in the Race to Dubai standings. Fraser is a very good and accurate driver of the golf ball, but also a fantastic scrambler and putter. I can see him churning his way around this course and grinding out pars hole after hole, in which much the same way Thomas Bjorn did last year when placing 4th. I really think he could feature in this event and 250/1 for one the most consistent players on the European tour this year holds great appeal.

Regards

Dave (OneBet)

Golf tips - British Open Form guide (table only)

2012-07-17T15:56:00.001-07:00

British Open outright selections http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/golf-tips-british-open-outright_17.html

British Open special bets http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/golf-tips-british-open-special-bets.html
British Open tournament form guide http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/golf-tips-british-open-tournament-form.html

I am going to do little more than post my form table here for your reference this week. the simple reason for this is that I do not actually rate form as all that critical a factor here. One only has to look at the relatively unheralded form of Clarke, Oosthuizen and Cink coming in to the event in the last 3 years to know that a player can find his game at the British Open if he gets the mental side of the game right. Indeed, even Harrington before that trio was not in great form before retaining his title in 2008.

However, with no fewer than 21 players averaging under 30 for the last 3 events they have entered on the PGA or European Tour, it is clear that the world's best golfers are here and plenty enough of them are in fine form.

The market is headed up by Jason Dufner and Francesco Molinari, both of whom have been in fine form on tour. Both also, perhaps more significantly, are competing regularly for wins on tour due to their ball-striking. Do not be surprised to see either or both contending come Sunday. As I said, this post is really for your reference and I would not consider any bets based upon form here.