BETWEEN THE HEDGES

Monday Watch

2026-05-17T21:14:41.528-04:00

Around X:

@Business

With no clear-cut end in sight to the Iran war, investors enter a new week under the spell of its key economic consequence: rising global interest rates, and the inflation threat they signal.
The US and Iran seemed far apart on a deal to end weeks of war, as a drone attack sparked a fire at a UAE nuclear plant, spotlighting the risks of a fragile ceasefire.
Santos and Repsol have begun commercial production of oil from their Pikka discovery in Alaska, a milestone set to help drive a resurgence of crude flows in the state.
Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market.
The size and scope of this deal underscores how unprecedented electricity demand is driving a merger wave in the once-sleepy power sector.
Optimism has slipped in several areas, including sales, capital spending and employment, NABE survey says.
The tech-fueled stock rally is looking bubble-like to some investors, and they’re turning to exotic options that better protect against an eventual slump.
Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
Here’s what you need to know to start your day.

@Zerohedge

Trump Tells Iran 'Clock Is Ticking, Move Fast' After New Peace Proposal As Analysts Predict Likely Return To War.
"We Like Shorting": Goldman Derivs Desk Sees Cracks In Meltup Trading Dynamic.
Market pricing of US growth (chart from a skeptical Goldman).
Complete Q1 13-F Summary: The Fireworks In Berkshire's Post-Buffett Portfolio, And Everything Else.
Trump Secures $17 Billion Annual Chinese Commitment For U.S. Farm Goods.
"Taiwan Loses Its Strategic Importance In 18 Months," Says Chamath Palihapitiya.
Iran Launches Crypto-Based "Hormuz Safe" Insurance Platform For Ships Crossing Strait.
Big Pharma RINO Bill Cassidy Smoked By Trump-Endorsed Candidate In Louisiana Senate Primary.
Largest Ukrainian Drone Attack On Moscow In Over A Year Leaves Four Dead.
YouTube, Snap, And TikTok Settle Kentucky School District's Social Media Addiction Claims.
DOJ Probes BlackRock Private Credit Fund Valuations After Dramatic Repricings.
Massive Mushroom Cloud 'Test' Blast Rattles Uninformed Residents Outside Jerusalem.
AI vs Affordability And Rates.
Axios Warns Cuba Stockpiled 300 Attack Drones With Crosshairs On U.S. Homeland.
*IRAN REITERATES IT'S FULLY READY TO ANY RENEWED ATTACK: IRNA. *IRAN'S IRNA NEWS AGENCY CITES DEFENSE MINISTRY SPOKESMAN.
Morgan Stanley Mid-Year Outlook: AI Strength But Continued Energy Shock Will Result In Global Recession.
Uranium Transfer, Nuclear Limits: US Issues 5 Peace Ultimatums To Iran.
Remember: In A Crisis, Everyone Will Consider Themselves 'The Good Guys'.
*UAE DEFENSE MINISTRY: AIR DEFENSES DEALT WITH THREE DRONES. *2 DRONES INTERCEPTED, 1 HIT POWER GENERATOR: UAE MINISTRY.
I attended the University of Arizona commencement ceremony, where Eric Schmidt
@ericschmidt faced boos throughout his speech. If you don’t know how young graduates feel about AI, this post is for you. The message is clear: it reflects growing skepticism toward AI narratives coming out of Silicon Valley. I keep coming back to one question for anyone building AI: are you building for humans? Build responsible and ethical AI. AI governance and compliance matter. (video)
Americans Face The Highest Memorial Day Gas Prices On Record.
*GREER: THERE'S NO CHANGE IN US POLICY ON TAIWAN. *GREER: CHINA SAID IT WANTS TO ENSURE NO ONE IMPOSES HORMUZ TOLL.
Market Leadership Is Narrow, Increasing Summer Risk.
Attack Drone Hits Near UAE Nuclear Power Plant.
Most Americans Can't Afford New Homes.
America's Medicine Supply Chain Is A National Security Vulnerability.
The WHO Drums Up Fear With Ebola After Hantavirus Scare Fails.
Solar Power Generation To Exceed Coal For First Time In Texas Grids.
Why One Bank Thinks It's "Magical Thinking" That Hormuz Reopens In June.

@CNBC

Asia-Pacific markets set for mixed open as Trump’s Iran warning stokes fresh oil supply fears.
Stock futures fall after record-setting week for Wall Street; traders await Nvidia and retail earnings: Live updates.
Trump warns Iran to 'get moving' or 'there won’t be anything left'.
North America’s largest commuter rail system remains shut a second day as Monday rush hour looms.
Opening Strait of Hormuz is of 'utmost importance', Eurogroup head says ahead of G7 finance ministers' meeting.
Ross Stores and TJX Companies among stocks with earnings momentum reporting this week.

@MarioNawful

Those microplastics and chemicals that are screwing up your endocrine system? There might be a solution. Scientists at the University of Western Australia just ran a study showing that people may be able to dramatically reduce plastic chemicals in their bodies in as little as 7 days. Researchers rebuilt participants’ diets to avoid plastic exposure almost entirely, even down to cardboard grocery packaging insulated with sheep’s wool instead of plastic. After one week, BPA levels reportedly dropped by around 60%. The biggest culprits were canned food, plastic food packaging, and ultra-processed foods.

@EricLDaugh

JUST IN: Cuba has discussed STRIKING FLORIDA, Guantanamo Bay, and U.S. vessels after acquiring 300 military drones — Axios. This is the DUMBEST consideration I’ve heard, they’d get straight up OBLITERATED in no time. Great way to be taken over! (video)
JUST IN: AG Todd Blanche confirms it’s ABOUT TO COME OUT as the DOJ probes the deep state coup against President Trump based on the Russia hoax. “We're finding out some incredibly troubling things, and at some point at the right time, that will be made public, and the American people will see exactly what happened to this administration and President Trump over the past decade!” (video)
HOLY CRAP! Disgraced and indicted former FBI Director James Comey just issued a DEEP STATE call to action: "Hang on" in the shadows until a Democrat becomes president. They just SAY IT on NATIONAL TV. COMEY: "I have great confidence in the people down below...HANG ON, 2.5 years, then we can REBUILD." "If you're bragging about forcing out career prosecutors and agents because the president doesn't like a lawful investigation, something is seriously broken at the top." Lock this traitor up! (video)

@_Qstormrider

BREAKING: In a stunning blow to Democrats, 76% PERCENT of BLACK Americans want nationwide voter ID — in other words, the SAVE America Act. White voters: 85% want it. Latino voters: 82% want it. Another leftist narrative just got decimated. Pass voter ID. GET THIS PASSED. (video)

@WallStreetApes

HERE WE GO. California Democrats are making a move to rig the Governor’s race Democrats are putting forth a new ballot initiative to repeal the “Top 2” candidate rule that takes the 2 leading candidates, because the 2 leading candidates are Republicans. “A new ballot initiative has been filed to repeal the state's top-two primary and return it to a party-based primary where voters like you would only vote for candidates in your own registered party”. The man behind this is Steve Maviglio, he's the former communications director for Governor Gray Davis. He's not some random nobody. Steve Maviglio a longtime Democratic insider, he’s a top Democrat operative. (video)

@FirstSquawk

CHINA IS DUMPING U.S. TREASURIES, WITH HOLDINGS FALLING TO THEIR LOWEST LEVEL SINCE THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS.

@ValerieAnne1970

ALARMING: Pfizer's New Lyme Disease Vaccine – Manufactured Problem For A Profitable 'Fix.' Your eyes should be on Pfizer right now. The mainstream news won't touch this because they're funded by Big Pharma... but someone has to say it. Just this month, Pfizer and Valneva released Phase 3 results for their Lyme disease vaccine. They're rushing data to the FDA for approval (could be manufacturing by late 2027). They claim 74% efficacy... but here's the massive red flag: (video)

@OcrazioCornPop

LIBERTY VS. RINO: Trump is campaigning hard to eliminate the Republicans with the HIGHEST Liberty Scores, while supporting those with the LOWEST. DO YOU THINK THIS IS A GOOD STRATEGY FOR THE FUTURE OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY? Should Trump continue to PURGE the Freedom Caucus while supporting the John Thune & Lindsey Graham wing of the party? (pic)

@DiscloseTV

JUST IN - Shipping giants CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd suspend all bookings to and from Cuba until further notice — Reuters.

@BurtJonesForGA

Brad Raffensperger is standing in the way of transparency in Georgia's elections while simultaneously running for Governor on a platform of election integrity. This must be a joke. Georgia deserves fair and transparent elections — and we will look at every avenue possible to ensure that happens. (video)

@Rasmussen_Poll

Brad Raffensperger is blocking the State Election Board from the Election Night Reporting Room. This is unacceptable. Georgia voters already endured the 2020 mess. We won't play games with election integrity in 2026. Time for real transparency and accountability. No more excuses. Good Morning ! Georgia’s corrupt Republican Secretary of State Raffensperger is suddenly very worried … (video)

@ScottPeters

Indiana - check. Louisiana - check. Texas, will you answer the call to DEFEAT Senator John Cornyn. & ELECT Ken Paxton on Tuesday, May 26th? (video)

@HormuzLetter

BREAKING: Iranian officials say Iran is fully prepared to seize the coastlines of the UAE and Bahrain if the UAE attempts to invade and seize Iranian-controlled islands in the Persian Gulf. This is Iran's direct response to Trump administration officials telling the UAE to invade Iran and seize Lavan Island. "Go take 'em! It would be UAE boots on the ground instead of US," a former senior Trump security official told The Telegraph yesterday.

@Liz_Churchill10

Incredible. Bill Gates followed through with this. “If people would cut down on their meat consumption, we could really help the planet”. “So possibly we can use human engineering to make it the case that we’re intolerant to certain types of meat”. (video)

@Peoples_Pundit

Few people have done more to destroy @realDonaldTrump than @LindseyGrahamSC. He passed around the Steele Dossier with his friend John McCain, told donors to let Trump burn after 2020 and J6, and helped derail his entire domestic agenda for Israel, leading him to this poll crash. (video)

Night Trading

Asian indices are -1.5% to -.5% on average.
Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 76.25 +3.5 basis points.
China Sovereign CDS 42.0 +.5 basis point.
China Iron Ore Spot 109.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.02%.
Crude Oil 107.30/bbl. +1.7%
Gold 4,495.6 USD/t oz. -1.5%
Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.66 -.04%.
Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.24 -.14%.
Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 124.3 +.9%.
US 10-Year Yield 4.61% +2.0 basis points.
Japan 30-Year Yield 4.15% +12.0 basis points.
Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.8 +.5%.
Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.69%.
S&P 500 futures -.61%.
NASDAQ 100 futures -.93%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 50% Net Long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

2026-05-16T14:45:34.277-04:00

Around X:

@Zerohedge

Persian Gulf Countries 'Refused' UAE Call For Joint Attack On Iran.
BLACKROCK WEIGHS $5B-$10B INVESTMENT IN SPACEX IPO: INFORMATION.
Democrats Devastated After Supreme Court Rejects Attempt To Revive Virginia Congressional Map.
Lefty Union Paralyzes Long Island Rail Road As Strike Sets Commuter Chaos Countdown For Monday.
Samsung, South Korean Union Resume Talks As Strike Threat Risks Disrupting Memory Chip Fabs.
UK Moves To Ban New North Sea Oil & Gas Licenses Permanently.
China Confirms Boeing Jet Deal, Agrees To Cut Select Levies & Expand Agri Trade.
UK's Telegraph Claims Attractive Young Women Are Now The New Face Of The 'Far-Right'.
Pakistan is having second thoughts on pushing too much for a ceasefire and a deal, now that a new wave of U.S. strikes on Iran appears to be just around the corner. By being perceived as Iran's lawyer rather than a neutral mediator, Pakistan has ruined its relationship with the UAE and that's just the tip of the iceberg of the fallout.
Here's Where Wealth Is Moving In America.
"Energy Is The Issue" - NANO Nuclear Highlights Reactor And Enrichment Opportunity.
Woke Judge Admits "Taking A Chance" On Violent Criminal... Who Then Went On Shooting Spree.
Harvard Weighs Major Crackdown On "Grade Inflation".
Closing Arguments In High-Stakes OpenAI Trial Focus On Reputation, Character.
Everyone In The Democratic Party Has Money - Except The Democratic Party.
JUST IN - Trump admin considers establishing a $1.7 billion compensation fund for Trump allies under DOJ investigation during Biden's term.
Trump's back in the States, while Jensen Huang is still in Beijing on an absolute rampage, spending an afternoon tearing from Nanluoguxiang to Shichahai, sampling a bunch of authentic old Beijing eats, handing countless vendors free promo material for their shops down the line and prime selfie spots, with crowds swarming everywhere he goes, fans going nuts for photos— even A-list celebs wouldn't get this kind of love. (video)
NYP Reporter: Prior to boarding Air Force One to depart Beijing, the entire U.S. delegation disposed of every item provided to them by their Chinese hosts. Gifts, badges, pins, and commemorative items were all dumped into a trash bin on site. The directive was absolute, no item of Chinese origin was permitted to board the aircraft. The precautions extended beyond the departure itself. Delegation members had left all personal electronic devices at home before traveling to China and operated exclusively on clean burner phones throughout the duration of the trip. (video)
BLACKROCK PRIVATE CREDIT FUND'S VALUATIONS BEING PROBED BY DOJ.
Re-Arranging The Global Game-Board 'Bigly'....
SpaceX Reportedly Chooses Nasdaq And "SPCX" Ticker For Mega IPO.
Bond Bloodbath & Benign Beijing Stall Stocks On The Week; Bitcoin & Bullion Battered.

@BarronsOnline

Had bullish commentary on (NVDA) and (CASY).

@IGSquawk

Weekend markets update: #DAX 23816 -0.15% #DOW 49286 -0.24% #NASDAQ 29024 -0.17% #FTSE 10169 -0.15% #HANGSENG 25662 -0.25% #EURUSD 11618 -0.06% #GOLD 4531 -0.20% #SILVER 7568 -0.39% #USOIL 10249 +0.79%.

@robbystarbuck

NOW - Trump says it's good to have 500,000 foreign Chinese students in the U.S. and for China to purchase U.S. farmland; otherwise, colleges and farm prices would collapse: "I frankly think that it's good that people come from other countries and they learn our culture." Actually, no, those 500,000 students are by law required to act as spies for China. This is the law in China. If removing them sinks some schools, then they deserve to sink. The only Chinese students we should invite are the top 0.001% who we should invite to defect to America. And farmland? Lol. We shouldn’t even let a Chinese company visit American farmland let alone own it. No exceptions. I give the Chinese credit, they would NEVER let Americans own their farmland. America First.

@LaraLogan

Someone needs to tell the President that Chinese students are Chinese spies. The CCP does not let them leave the country without that commitment. China is a police state.

@MarioNawfal

Trump bought up to $530,000 in Palantir stock across at least 7 purchases in March 2026. Then, weeks later, he praised the company on Truth Social. Ethics disclosures released by the U.S. Office of Government Ethics also show he dumped up to $5 million in Palantir shares back in February, before rotating into Nvidia, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Oracle.
New Big Data Polling has Thomas Massie leading the Kentucky-04 GOP primary at 50.6%, despite millions in Israeli lobby money flooding the race to defeat him... The age breakdown is staggering: -Gen Z: Massie 81.5% -Millennials: Massie 68.6% -Gen X: Massie 53% -Boomers/Silent Generation: Gallrein 62% The split makes sense once you see what each candidate stands for. (video)

@MJTruthUltra

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation has publicly funded the genetic modification of ticks using self-limiting gene technology through the biotech company Oxitec (operating as Flyttr Limited). This demonstrates capability and direct involvement in engineering ticks. Who the hell gave this guy power to do anything?
Phoenix Arizona is reporting an uptick in Tick Bites and Emergency Room Visits This seems to be an issue across multiple states.. farmers, ranchers, outdoorsmen. Everyone is wondering… is Bill Gates somehow involved? (video)

@ShadowofEzra

Thomas Massie’s opponent, Ed Gallrein, says he wants to bring back the military draft for “national security” reasons. He complains that the current system is too slow when it comes to sending large numbers of young Americans off to a potential world war. "That is a significant issue for national security." "I'm not sure we have that kind of time anymore." (video)

@GenFlynn

Breaking: A Color Revolution is Underway. These @DataRepublican missives must be read, understood, and shared by every American who cares about saving our Republic the way it was originally designed for We The People and future generations to come. (link)
Breaking (the internet): CCP President Xi’s use of the term, “Thucydides Trap” during his opening comments to @POTUS has everyone wondering … WHAT THE …. ?

@FirstSquawk

U.S. AND ISRAEL ARE PREPARING FOR INCREASED MILITARY ACTION AGAINST IRAN, ACCORDING TO OFFICIALS.

@DiedSuddenly

Huge win for health! RFK Jr just explained that doctors will now get paid to take patients OFF unnecessary and harmful medications through a new policy called “deprescribing.” This is the first policy of its kind, and will incentivize doctors to STOP prescribing unnecessary medications. (video)

@HormuzLetter

BREAKING: China has explicitly informed the US that it recognizes Iran's "exercise of sovereignty" over the Strait of Hormuz, contradicting the White House readout of the Trump-Xi summit that claimed Xi opposed Iranian "militarization" of the Strait and any "toll" for its use, per a source close to Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf. More than 10 Chinese ships have successfully transited under Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority permit system in the past two days.
NEW: Iran is now ready to fully block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait the moment the war resumes, building on "initial steps" Iran began on April 17 toward blocking the strait, with the goal of triggering "unprecedented energy shortages and soaring prices" to shift the US stance toward Iran, per informed sources in Tehran. Bab el-Mandeb carries 15+ undersea cables, twice as much as Hormuz, transmitting 90 percent of all Europe-Asia bandwidth. A single dragged anchor damaged 15 cables in the strait in September 2025. Iran would control the digital connection between the world's two largest economic zones. The strait is also the southern chokepoint for the Suez corridor, carrying roughly 30 percent of global container traffic between Asia and Europe.

@WallStreetApes

Over 725,000 restaurants and foodservice operators across the United States get their ingredients from Restaurant Depot. The vast amount of their foods and ingredients are highly processed, ultra-processed, and full of additives. (video)

@BGatesIsaPsycho

@WallStreetMav

Why the Senate won’t pass the SAVE America Act in one chart.

@nicksortor

BREAKING: Colorado Gov. Jared Polis has now CONFIRMED he has commuted Tina Peters’ sentence, saying he believes the election whistleblower’s free speech rights were violated. Polis says the judge “held her speech against her.” Peters will OFFICIALLY be free in just a couple weeks, with a release date of June 1. (video)

@EricLDaugh

HOLY CRAP! Scott Presler just gave every Republican a wakeup call, Democrats are making plans to cheat their way to a "SUPERMAJORITY" in Congress And it could block Republicans from Senate control FOREVER. Nuke. The. Filibuster. (video)
HOLY SMOKES. President Trump just went HARDBALL mode and demanded Senate Republicans ATTACH the SAVE America Act to the housing or FISA legislation — both of which are bipartisan. "Maryland just had 500,000 Fake Mail-In Ballots revealed." (pic)

@OcrazioCornPop

DEEP STATE SENATE: Unelected Obama/Harry Reid holdover Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough just GUTTED the GOP’s $72 BILLION border bill - axing Border Patrol funding, security tech, screening & $2.5B DHS cash! John Thune CAN fire her anytime, but he WON’T. Why is @LeaderJohnThune protecting this deep state operative? (pic)

@johnrich

The plan is to get everyone sick from bio-engineered ticks that make it impossible for you to eat meat, without getting violently ill. Then, they'll offer you a vaccine. Why is this not considered domestic terrorism?

@Fa21519230

Bill Gates is funding a technology that could wipe out entire species from the Earth... Scientists around the world believe this should be banned... It's called gene drive. It hijacks natural reproduction using CRISPR. Instead of passing a modified gene to half of an organism's offspring, the gene drive forces it into all of them... The modification doesn't stop. It spreads through the entire wild population on its own. Generation after generation until the species collapses... (video)

@CathyLathamTX

Dear President Trump: Looks like Georgia is at it again. You may need to send in the DOJ and other officials to watch this primary. Kemp, Raffy Taffy, Carr, and the rest of that gang from 2020 are up to no good again. Kemp isn’t redistricting per the surpreme court decision. He is protecting his buddies to undermine you! Raffy Taffy isn’t allowing the SEB to observe election counting and results as they come in. And they still have that horrible QR code and contentious Dominion scanners. Do-nothing Carr is still doing nothing. I am sure he has been promised some glowing job after this primary. Maybe the board position just vacated by Sonny??? Gabe is bragging of the “job” he did in 2020. Looks like the same group that screwed us in 2020 are going to screw all of Georgia again. I think they need some bigger eyes to make sure the election is fair.

@KobeissiLetter

Investors have never used this much leverage: US margin debt surged +$83 billion in April, to a record $1.3 trillion. Over the last 12 months, margin debt has risen +$453 billion, or +53%. As a result, margin debt is up to a record 5.2% of US GDP. This is ~3 percentage points above both the pre-2008 Financial Crisis level and well above the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble peak. Market leverage is through the roof. (graph)
BREAKING: Iran says it has prepared a "professional mechanism" to manage traffic and impose fees in the Strait of Hormuz and it will be "unveiled soon." Details include:

@unusual_whales

BREAKING: Take a look at Trump's trades. You can see a large majority of the millions traded were recently in the new year, and especially after the Iranian war.

@adamemedia1

“WE NEED TO LET THEM DO STOCK TRADING TO FEED THEIR FAMILIES”. That was the actual argument just made in defense of politicians trading stocks. Members of Congress make $174,000 a year. The median American income is roughly $63,000. (3x less) Meanwhile the federal minimum wage is $7.25 an hour… also unchanged since 2009. And you’re seriously being told politicians need access to insider trading to survive. (video)

@CostaKapo

“We’re facing the largest supply shortage of lubricating fluids in the modern history of America. Realistic, middle-of-the-road estimates are for our average available supply in this product category to drop by 40%.” Internal AutoZone Memo. (pic)

@GuntherEagleman

Elon just endorsed it. Gad Saad dropped the hammer on Fox this morning. We now live in a world where: - Rape victims get less sympathy than their rapists - Homeowners get less than the squatters breaking in - American vets get less than illegal migrants - Repeat felons with 186 charges get 200 more “chances” because “society made them do it”. This isn’t kindness. This is suicidal empathy. (video)

OpenVAERS:

VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,033,165 Reports(+317 from prior report) Through March 27th, 2026.

SKirsch.com:

Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Weekly Scoreboard*

2026-05-15T15:21:24.958-04:00

S&P 500 7,434.7 +.7%

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

DJIA 49,582.2 -.1%

NASDAQ 26,305.1 +.5%

Russell 2000 2,803.0 -1.9%

NYSE FANG+ 17,342.2 +.8%

Goldman 50 Most Shorted 294.7 -1.7%
Vaneck Social Sentiment 36.9 -.7%

Wilshire 5000 73,144.8 +.2%

Russell 1000 Growth 5,035.6 +1.5%

Russell 1000 Value 2,285.2 -.6%

S&P 500 Consumer Staples 963.2 +1.4%

Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 257.7 -.4%

NYSE Technology 8,932.6 -.2%

Transports 20,083.0 -.7%

Utilities 1,095.6 -1.6%

MSCI Europe Banks 115.7 -2.3%

MSCI Emerging Markets 65.4 -4.1%

Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 257.6 +1.2%

Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 134.2 +1.0%

Sentiment/Internals

NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 614,352 +.1%
Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.6 -17.7%

Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 1,158 +37

Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -18.1 +8.5%

CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 178,786 -6.8%

CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,027,827 +2.5%

Total Put/Call .81 +6.7%

OEX Put/Call .30 +20.8%

ISE Sentiment 145.0 +1.4%

NYSE Arms .60 -68.1%
Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 123.1 +4.7%
Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.06 unch.
Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.23 +7.0 basis points

Volatility(VIX) 18.2 +4.4%
S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .67 +28.5%

CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 12.7 -4.8%

G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.75 unch.

Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.3 +4.0%

Smart Money Flow Index 20,269.3 +.8%
NAAIM Exposure Index 77.3 -19.4

ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $7.749 Trillion n/a

ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$8.186 Million

AAII % Bulls 39.3 +2.6%

AAII % Bears 36.6 +10.9%
CNN Fear & Greed Index 64.0 (GREED) -3.0

Futures Spot Prices

CRB Index 400.30 +3.2%

Crude Oil 105.50/bbl. +11.3%

Reformulated Gasoline 370.7 +5.4%

Natural Gas 2.97 +7.8%
US Power PJM Western Hub Peak Forward Y1 76.3 USD/Megawatt +.1%
Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 51.0 euros/megawatt-hour +16.4%

Heating Oil 406.2 +4.7%
Newcastle Coal 136.5 (1,000/metric ton) +1.0%

Gold 4,562.3 -3.4%
Silver 77.0 -4.3%

Bloomberg Industrial Metals Index 182.1 +.6%

Copper 629.0 +.3%

US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 413.0 USD/Metric Tonne unch.

China Iron Ore Spot 108.90 USD/Metric Tonne -2.3%
China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 28,400.0 USD/metric tonne +11.6%
inSpectrum Tech Inc. DRAM Spot DDR4 16Gb 2048Mx8 56.6 -2.4%

CME Lumber 592.5 +1.6%

UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,406.0 -.9%
US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 342.5 USD/Short Ton +1.5%
US Gulf NOLA Urea Granular Spot 565.0 USD/Short Ton -6.2%

Economy

Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +4.0% +.3 percentage point

US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 12.9 -4.4 percentage points

NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.7 unch.
Caldara Iacoviello Geopolitical Risk Index 286.6 +11.3%
Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 100.0 unch.
Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed 95.0% -4.0 percentage points

US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 151.7 -77.9%
Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .7 -.3
DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $215.0 Billion($1,335.40 Savings Per Taxpayer) unch.
S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(454 of 500 reporting) +25.1% -.2 percentage point

S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 354.47 +1.8: Growth Rate +27.9% +.6 percentage point, P/E 21.2 +.4
S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.37% -1.0 basis point
NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +62.1% unch.
NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 859.89 +8.23: Growth Rate +117.2% +2.1 percentage points, P/E 20.4 +.6

Citi US Economic Surprise Index 45.0 +8.3 points

Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -53.3 +5.5 points

Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 42.0 -7.6 points

Fed Fund Futures imply .8%(-5.8 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 3.25-3.5%, 99.2%(+5.8 percentage points) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 3.75-4.0% on 6/17

US Dollar Index 99.3 +1.5%

MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,870.5 -.5%

Bitcoin/USD 79,200.7 -1.9%

Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 210.5 +.02%
Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.66 -1.1%

Yield Curve(2s/10s) 51.5 +4.75 basis points

10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.59% +23.0 basis points
Japan 30-Year Yield 4.04% +30.0 basis points

Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.681 Trillion +.3%
Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $5.877 Billion -8.7%

U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 41.7 +6.5%

Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 190.3 +1.0%

Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 78.0 +6.0 basis points
UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 19.6 +4.2%

China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 42.5 +1.9%

Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 124.5 -.6%

Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 64.1 +1.0%
Dubai Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 89.0 +4.3%

South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 23.7 -6.5%

China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.20 -.1%
China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 116.1 +1.6%

Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.6% -10.0 basis points
Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +1.7% unch.
US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +3.2% +50.0 basis points
CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +3.2% +10.0 basis points
Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.31% +3.0 basis points: CPI YoY +4.18% +62.0 basis points
1-Year TIPS Spread 3.15 +18.0 basis points
10-Year TIPS Spread 2.51 +5.0 basis points

Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 12.0 +2.5 basis points
2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -15.75 +.5 basis point

3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.25 -2.0 basis points

N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 53.9 +1.9%
BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 73.4 -2.9%

America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 106.0 -31.3%
High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 458.25 -1.5%
Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 239.0 +12.0

European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 61.0 +2.9%

Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 159.7 +2.7%

MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 114.0 +2.0 basis points
Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 552.0 -27.0 basis points
Avg. Auto ABS OAS .49 -2.0 basis points

M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +4.6% unch.

Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,432.1B +.1%

4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 203,750 +.4%

Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 54.7 -.7%

Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.46% +4.0 basis points

Weekly Mortgage Applications 290,100 +1.7%

Weekly Retail Sales +9.6% +230.0 basis points
OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +13.0% +4.0 percentage points
Box Office Weekly Gross $230.6M +14.8%

Nationwide Gas $4.53/gallon -.02/gallon

Baltic Dry Index 3,195.0 +7.3%
Drewry World Container Freight Index $2,553.4/40 ft Box +11.7%

China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,280.5 +.1%

Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 250.0 unch.
Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 128.5 +2.7%

Rail Freight Carloads 283,724 +.7%
TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,858,330 +36.9%
US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 89.0 -.7 point
Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Approval Tacking Poll 42.0% unch.

Best Performing Style

Large-Cap Growth +1.5%

Worst Performing Style

Small-Cap Value -2.6%

Leading Sectors

Cyber Security +5.1%

Energy +4.9%
Oil Service +4.3%

Lithography/Photonics +3.2%

Alt Energy +2.3%

Lagging Sectors

Gold & Silver -5.4%

Homebuilding -5.6%

Retail -6.2%

Nuclear -7.1%

Airlines -7.5%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (24)

SEDG, FIG, SHLS, MICC, ENPH, HUBS, ARX, WGS, YETI, BAND, SPIR, INOD, NOW, DXCM, PZZA, SNOW, DMRA, MSFT, HRTG, PCT, NOG, ALAB, HMC and HG

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (24)

BELFB, LKQ, LFUS, JRI, BILI, BABA, NU, CCAP, CHTR, BIRK, DLO, QUIK, TWST, PSLV, NGG, BLSH, CRVS, ATA, OMER, PICS, TNDM, IDR, YSS and TNGX

ETFs

High-Volume Gainers

High-Volume Losers

Stocks

High-Volume Gainers

High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Lower into Afternoon on Mideast War Resumption Fears, US/China Trade Deal Disappointment, Surging Long-Term Rates, Tech/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

2026-05-15T13:46:10.481-04:00

Overseas Futures:

Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +700 open in Japan
China A50 Futures: Indicating -27 open in China

DAX Futures: Indicating +40 open in Germany

Portfolio:

Slightly Lower: On losses in my industrial/tech/consumer discretionary/biotech sector longs
Disclosed Trades: None
Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

2026-05-15T12:15:37.585-04:00

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

(BIDU)/11.56

After the Close:

None of note

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

NY Fed Services Business Activity Index for May.

10:00 am EST

The NAHB Housing Market Index for May is estimated at 34.0 versus 34.0 in April.

4:00 pm EST

Net Long-Term TIC Flows for March.

Upcoming Splits

None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

The Fed's Venable speaking, Cannacord Genuity Metals/Mining Conference, (FIX) annual meeting, (VSH) annual meeting and the JPMorgan Tech/Media/Communications Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST