BETWEEN THE HEDGES

Monday Watch

2012-01-30T00:48:00.003-05:00

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:

Greek Debt Talks Risk Derailing EU Summit's Crisis-Fighting Plan. European Union leaders gather for their first summit of 2012 as a deteriorating economy and struggle to complete a Greek debt writeoff risk sidetracking efforts to stamp out the financial crisis. EU chiefs arrive in Brussels about 2 p.m. today to put the finishing touches on a German-led deficit-control treaty and endorse the statutes of a 500 billion-euro ($661 billion) rescue fund to be set up this year. Greece and its private creditors said Jan. 28 they expect to complete a deal in coming days after bondholders signaled they would accept European government demands for a bigger cut in their debt holdings. Efforts to hold the 17-member euro area together with bolstered fiscal rules and a stronger firewall are colliding with stalled progress in Greece, where the crisis began in 2009. To prevent a financial collapse, Greek bondholders have been pushed to cede more ground after agreeing in October to take a 50 percent cut in the face value of more than 200 billion euros ($263 billion) of debt. “The fact we’re still at the beginning of 2012 talking about Greece is a sign this problem hasn’t been dealt with,” U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne said at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. The summit follows warnings at the gathering that ended yesterday in Davos that it’s time to end the region’s debt crisis and that measures aimed at simply containing the turmoil are no longer enough. The euro economy is set to contract by 0.5 percent this year, according to the median of 19 economist forecasts compiled by Bloomberg.
Euro-Area Debt Sales Top $29 Billion in Week as Fitch Threatens Sentiment. European nations including Italy, Belgium and Spain sell no less than 22 billion euros ($29 billion) of securities this week as credit-rating cuts risk upending optimism the region’s debt crisis is being contained. Italy auctions as much as 6 billion euros of five- and 10- year debt today, along with securities due in April 2016 and March 2021. Belgium sells as much as 3 billion euros of bills tomorrow, with Spain, Portugal, Germany and France issuing 13 different maturities in the five days.
Ackermann Says Greek Default Would Be 'Playing With Fire'. The economic and political consequences of Greece defaulting instead of reaching a voluntary debt-restructuring deal are being underestimated, Deutsche Bank AG Chief Executive Officer Josef Ackermann said. “Default risk is much higher than what people normally take into account,” Ackermann said today in an interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. “You see already that some markets are nervous about certain countries,” he said. “That is playing with fire if you think that a default will have no impact.” As Greece's creditors continue negotiations with the country's government as well as the International Monetary Fund, European Union, and European Central Bank over the terms of a restructuring, some investors and financiers are downplaying the consequences of a default. JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said this week that it would not be a “disaster,” Dow Jones reported, citing an interview with CNBC. “They are underestimating the collateral damages and they are underestimating the risk of contagion,” Ackermann, 63, said today. “If we have a default in the euro zone going forward, this will reduce somewhat the trust and confidence in the euro system and so, in that sense, we should do everything also from a historic and political perspective to prevent a default.”
Greek Debt Deal May Mean Little Relief for Portugal: Euro Credit. The Greek debt swap negotiations that may produce relief for Athens are fueling concerns in Lisbon where an agreement would make it more likely Portuguese investors would be next in line to accept a loss. European leaders have said a Greek accord where investors take a 50% writedown in the face value of their bonds is unique and won't be applied to other nations struggling to tame rising debts. Holders of Portuguese securities are skeptical, with the yield on the nation's 10-year bonds rising 42 basis points to a euro-era record of 15.22% on Jan. 27. "Portugal's debt and lack of growth is very similar to Greece," Yannick Naud, who manages $150 million at Glendevon King Asset Management, said in an interview. "Its bonds are falling because it's very obvious to everyone that if there's a haircut for Greece, there might well be a haircut for Portugal too."
Merkel Stopped by Kauder on ESM, EFSF Merger Plan, BamS Says. Volker Kauder, the floor leader for German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats, blocked a plan to put unused funds from the euro region’s financial backstop into its permanent successor, Bild am Sonntag reported. Merkel wanted to endorse combining the lending power of the European Financial Stability Facility and the 500 billion-euro ($659 billion) European Stability Mechanism, the euro region’s future permanent financial backstop. Christian Democrat members of parliament opposed the move because Germany then would be liable for more than the 211 billon euros originally approved, prompting Merkel to drop the plan, BamS said, citing parliament members it didn’t name.
Issing Doesn’t Rule Out Euro-Zone Exits, Neue Zuercher Reports. Otmar Issing, the former chief economist of the European Central Bank, said he wouldn’t rule out exits from the euro area, Neue Zuercher Zeitung reported, citing an interview. “The Greek case is obvious,” Issing told the newspaper. He added that the risk of contagion has fallen because countries like Ireland and Spain escaped “the line of fire” because of reforms. For the highly-indebted nations there is “no alternative” to fiscal consolidation, he said, Neue Zuercher reported.
German Lawmakers Reject Increasing Aid for Greece, Spiegel Says. Lawmakers from German Chancellor Angela Merkel’scoalition rejected increasing aid for Greece, Der Spiegel said, citing members of the parliament in Berlin. There can be no further aid if Greece doesn’t implement the agreed adjustment programs, the magazine said, citing Horst Seehofer, chairman of the Christian Social Union, the Bavarian sister party of Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union. Greece must show evidence that it’s serious about implementing structural reforms, the magazine cited Rainer Bruederle, head of the Free Democratic Party’s group in parliament, as saying. All Greek parties must show the desire for fundamental change because there is increasing “annoyance” in Berlin, Der Spiegel said, citing CDU lawmaker Gunther Krichbaum, head of the European Affairs committee.
Asian, Middle Eastern Holders Cut EFSF Bond Purchases, FT Says. Asian and Middle Eastern money managers have reduced purchases of new European Financial Stability Fund bonds at a faster pace than other investors, the Financial Times reported, citing data from CreditSights Inc. The proportion of the bonds bought by investors including central banks and sovereign wealth funds has fallen to 17 percent this month from 54 percent in June, the FT said. Asian and Middle Eastern investors purchased 12 percent of the bonds compared with 50 percent in June, according to the report.
France May Raise EU1 Bln From Tax on Stock Trades, Figaro Says. France may raise 1 billion euros ($1.3 billion) annually from a transaction tax on stock trades, Le Figaro reported, without saying where it got the information. The 0.1 percent tax would also cover the most standardized derivatives products, while bonds and transactions on capital instruments would not be taxed, Le Figaro said. The tax project will be presented at a Feb. 8 French government cabinet meeting, according to the report.
China Signals Limited Loosening as PBOC Bucks Forecast. China (CNGDPYOY) signaled caution toward more monetary loosening by holding off on a reduction in bank reserve requirements that some economists had predicted would come before a week-long holiday ending Jan. 28. “The central bank aims to ease policies prudently and pace loan growth at the beginning of the year so as to avoid a replay of the credit explosion in 2009 and 2010 and prevent inflation from rebounding,” said Lu Zhengwei, a Shanghai-based economist at Industrial Bank. Lu now sees a reserve-ratio cut in February to add liquidity and spur growth after the reverse-repurchase contracts expire.
China's Stocks Decline After Weeklong Holiday. China’s stocks fell after the government signaled caution toward further easing of monetary policy by holding off on a cut in bank reserve requirements and the U.S. economy expanded less than forecast. China Vanke Co. (000002) and Poly Real Estate Group Co., the nation’s biggest developers, slid more than 2 percent after the Beijing Morning Post said home sales in the capital dropped during the weeklong Chinese New Year holiday. Liquor maker Kweichow Moutai Co. (600519) paced declines for consumer stocks after retail sales growth slowed last week. Zijin Mining Group Co. led gains for gold producers after bullion prices jumped. “There was no reserve-ratio cut during the holiday so liquidity will still be tight,” said Wu Kan, a Shanghai-based fund manager at Dazhong Insurance Co., which oversees $285 million. “It looks like the government isn’t in a hurry to release too much liquidity into the market as opposed to the market expectation of an immediate and aggressive relaxation.”
Simpson Says 'Terrified' Obama Walked Away From Deficit Issue. President Barack Obama “walked away” from his bipartisan U.S. deficit-cutting commission’s plan “because he knew he’d be torn to bits,” said former Republican Senator Alan Simpson, who was co-chairman of the panel. Obama is “terrified” of the deficit issue, Simpson said in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “Political Capital with Al Hunt,” airing this weekend. “He didn’t deal with it” in his annual State of the Union address to Congress on Jan. 24.
SEC Probes Deutsche Bank CDO Deal With Paulson, Spiegel Says. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating a collateralized debt obligation transaction in which Deutsche Bank AG (DBK) allowed U.S. hedge fund Paulson & Co. to select mortgage-backed securities, Der Spiegel reported. For a CDO called “START,” the bank allowed Paulson to bet against the securities without telling other investors, the German magazine said on its website. Goldman Sachs settled a suit by the SEC for $500 million over a similar transaction, according to Der Spiegel. Like other lenders, Deutsche Bank is faced with lawsuits brought forward by retail and institutional clients who have lost money in the financial crisis, Deutsche Bank spokesman Frank Hartman said when contacted by Bloomberg News. The lender look into the claims carefully and, if they prove wrong, will defend itself vigorously, he said.
Oil Drops a Second Day Before European Leaders Meet for Debt Discussions. Oil declined for a second day in New York before a meeting of European Union leaders to discuss the region’s debt crisis, which has slowed the economy and threatened to curb fuel consumption.
ABB Nears Deal for Thomas & Betts for About $4B. ABB Ltd. (ABBN) is near an agreement to buy Thomas & Betts Corp., a maker of electrical connectors, for about $4 billion in cash, a person with knowledge of the plan said. ABB, based in Zurich and the world’s largest provider of power-transmission gear, may announce a deal as soon as today, said the person, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the negotiations are private. The talks for Thomas & Betts, whose market value was $3.02 billion based on its Jan. 27 closing price of $57.95 a share, may still break down.
StanChart's Bindra Sees Hong Kong Hyperinflation Risk. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s pledge to keep interest rates low through at least late 2014 creates a risk of hyperinflation in Hong Kong, said Jaspal Bindra, Standard Chartered Plc (STAN)’s chief executive officer for Asia. A currency peg to the dollar means the city won’t be able to raise benchmark borrowing costs as China’s expansion fuels growth and price gains, Bindra told journalists on Jan. 27 at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. “It will have a very profound impact in Hong Kong,” he said. “If you have near-zero interest rates when their inflation is at over 6 or 7 percent given the China effect, and their growth is, also thanks to China, at 6 or 7 percent, you’re looking for hyperinflation.”
If Carried Interest Irks You, You Don't Get It: William Dantzler. Do we really want a tax law in which only people who already have money can earn a capital gain? And, if earning a capital gain requires an investment, then how much? Does it have to be a big investment? Can it be borrowed from the other partners? Isn’t a carried interest in effect just a loan from the moneyed partners? These are difficult questions that affect the entire structure of capital-gains taxation -- not just carried interest. It would be very hard to draw a fair line between the type of private-equity investment that is deserving of capital gain treatment and that which is not. It is perhaps not an accident that the carried interest discussion is taking place in the political arena -- over Mr. Romney’s tax returns -- rather than the worlds of tax law or tax policy, and that the advocates of taxing carried interest at higher rates are not tax experts who understand the complexity of the issue and the difficulty of drawing fair lines.
Goldman Sachs(GS) Among Banks Fighting to Exempt Half of Swaps Books. More than half of the derivatives- trading business of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS), Morgan Stanley and three other large banks could fall largely outside the Dodd- Frank Act if they succeed in lobbying regulators to exempt their overseas operations, government records show. The banks have met with regulators, testified to Congress and filed dozens of letters contending that they will suffer a competitive disadvantage if the regulations apply to their foreign arms. Banking lobbyists have been gaining traction with their argument that a combination of U.S. supervision of their holding companies and foreign supervision of their operations abroad is sufficient to oversee risk to the financial system. While the banks haven’t publicized how much of their swaps business is overseas, they file quarterly statements to the Federal Reserve. A Bloomberg News analysis of the filings shows that Goldman Sachs had 62 percent of its $134 billion in fair- value derivatives assets and liabilities in non-U.S. branches or subsidiaries for international banking as of Sept. 30, while 77 percent of Morgan Stanley (MS)’s $101 billion was in non-U.S. operations. If overseas operations aren’t subject to U.S. rules or equivalent regulation by other nations, it could impede the goal of preventing another credit crisis, Darrell Duffie, professor at Stanford University’s Graduate School of Business, said in a telephone interview. “Not only is that neglectful from a viewpoint of systemic risk as it sits today, but it’s also an incitement to move the risk abroad,” Duffie said.

Wall Street Journal:

Japanese Debt Concerns Rise. Default-Insurance Costs Climb as Raters Weigh Downgrades; 'Absurdly Unsustainable'. Jitters from Europe's sovereign-debt crisis are now touching Japan, a country with a long-calm bond market despite fiscal deficits far larger than those of Greece or Italy. In recent weeks, the cost of insuring against default on Japanese government bonds—a measure of perceived credit risk—has increased sharply, nearing the historic peak at the height of the Greek debt crisis in October. The price for default insurance, through derivatives known as credit-default swaps, exceeds levels seen last March, immediately after natural disasters and a nuclear crisis darkened Japan's outlook.
Law Firms Keep Squeezing Associates. Law firms are finally starting to recover from the recession, but they aren't taking their young lawyers along for the ride.
Citi(C) Chairman Parsons Considers a Departure. Richard D. Parsons, who as chairman of Citigroup Inc. helped steer the bank through its near-death experience in the financial crisis, is considering stepping down after three years in the post, said people familiar with the situation.
Money From MF Global Feared Gone. Nearly three months after MF Global Holdings Ltd. collapsed, officials hunting for an estimated $1.2 billion in missing customer money increasingly believe that much of it might never be recovered, according to people familiar with the investigation. As the sprawling probe that includes regulators, criminal and congressional investigators, and court-appointed trustees grinds on, the findings so far suggest that a "significant amount" of the money could have "vaporized" as a result of chaotic trading at MF Global during the week before the company's Oct. 31 bankruptcy filing, said a person close to the investigation.
The Solyndra Rule. Another green subsidy favorite goes belly up. President Obama keeps pushing the (Warren) Buffett rule that nobody making more than $1 million a year should pay less than 30% in taxes. He'd do better by the economy if he adopted a Solyndra Rule, in which no company touting unproven and expensive technology should receive millions in taxpayer subsidies.

Business Insider:

Zero Hedge:

CNBC:

India Won't Cut Iranian Oil Imports: Finance Minister. India, the world's fourth-largest oil consumer, will not take steps to cut petroleum imports from Iran despite U.S. and European sanctions against Tehran, its finance minister said on Sunday during a visit to Chicago. The United States wants buyers in Asia, Iran's biggest oil market, to cut imports to put further pressure on Tehran to rein in its nuclear ambitions. Washington suspects Iran of trying to make nuclear weapons, but Tehran says its nuclear program is for peaceful means. India, which imports 12 percent of its oil from the Islamic Republic, cannot do without Iranian oil, the official said. "It is not possible for India to take any decision to reduce the imports from Iran drastically, because among the countries which can provide the requirement of the emerging economies, Iran is an important country amongst them," India Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee told reporters in Chicago at the end of a two-day visit aimed at wooing U.S. investment.
With $100 a Barrel Oil, Why Isn't Green Tech Better? The demand for energy is expected to double in the next 40 years globally, as populations grow and access to electricity increases, yet a large-scale, safe alternative to fossil fuels has yet to be built.
China's Wen Says Government Debt Risk 'Controllable'. China's Premier Wen Jiabao said the nation's government debt is at an "overall safe and controllable" level, that funding for key projects would be ensured and that applying the brakes to the problem would be done in a way to avoid systemic risks. Investors have been worried by the scale of the debts built up by China's local governments, which some fear could threaten the stability of the banking system.

IBD:

Air Lease's(AL) Growth Reflects Airline Industry Trends.

LA Times:

Occupy Oakland Arrests Reach 400; City Hall Vandalized. Officials surveyed damage Sunday from a volatile Occupy protest that resulted in hundreds of arrests the day before and left the historic City Hall vandalized after demonstrators broke into the building, smashed display cases, cut electrical wires and burned an American flag. Police placed the number of arrests at about 400 from Saturday's daylong protest — the most contentious since authorities dismantled the Occupy Oakland encampment late last year. Mayor Jean Quan condemned the local movement's tactics as "a constant provocation of the police with a lot of violence toward them" and said the demonstrations were draining scarce resources from an already strapped city. Damage to the City Hall plaza alone has cost $2 million since October, she said, about as much as police overtime and mutual aid. Oakland has logged five homicides since Friday, and Police Chief Howard Jordan said the law enforcement "personnel and resources dedicated to Occupy reduce our ability to focus on public safety priorities."
Syrian Army Cracks Down on Protests in Damascus Suburbs. Syrian tanks and troops moved Sunday to crush resistance in the rebellious suburbs of Damascus, opposition groups reported, bringing the bloody battle that has ravaged the nation for months to the doorsteps of the nation's capital. The fierce fighting reported outside Damascus was the latest sign that Syria's armed insurgency — long concentrated in provincial hotbeds of revolt like Homs, Hama and Dara — has now reached the edge of the city from which the Assad family has ruled Syria in autocratic fashion for more than 40 years. That reign now appears threatened as never before, raising the prospect of a revamped geopolitical alignment in the heart of the volatile Middle East. More than 250 people have been killed in clashes nationwide since Thursday, according to the Local Coordination Committees, an opposition coalition. The group reported at least 64 deaths on Sunday alone.

NY Times:

U.S. Banks Tally Their Exposure to Europe's Debt Maelstrom. After a hurricane, homeowners check nervously to see if their insurance will cover all of their damages. With the European financial crisis still threatening a trail of defaults, United States banks are betting that their insurance is going to pay out. Five large American banks, including JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, have more than $80 billion of exposure to Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Greece, the most economically stressed nations in the euro currency zone, according to a New York Times analysis of the banks’ financial disclosures.

USA Today:

Apple(AAPL) Makes Move Into Offices. Microsoft's(MSFT) corporate Windows business is losing ground to Apple. Apple is hiring sales executives across the U.S. to get more of its products into Fortune 1000 companies.

Reuters:

Iran Vows to Stop "some" Oil Sales as Inspectors Visit. Iran sent conflicting signals in a dispute with the West over its nuclear ambitions, vowing to stop oil exports soon to "some" countries but postponing a parliamentary debate on a proposed halt to crude sales to the European Union. The Islamic Republic declared itself optimistic about a visit by U.N. nuclear experts that began on Sunday but also warned the inspectors to be "professional" or see Tehran reducing cooperation with the world body on atomic matters.

Financial Times:

Successful Short Selling - An Effective But Rare Skill. Returns from short bias funds over the past few years do not make particularly happy reading as shorting only works in particularly dire years. In 2008, for instance, the strategy returned 28 per cent to investors, according to HFR. But it lost investors 24 per cent in 2009 and 18 per cent in 2010, compared with 10 per cent gains for the average hedge fund investor. It is little wonder that, despite the common perception that hedge funds are obsessed with shorting, in reality there are few specialists on the short side.
Deutsche Bank Targets Problem Assets. Deutsche Bank is preparing to launch a fund to snap up investors’ illiquid or damaged holdings in hedge funds that have failed to recover since the financial crisis. The bank estimates that, three years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, investors are sitting on between $80bn and $100bn of hard-to-sell hedge fund assets that could prove lucrative in the coming years.
Western Industrials Feel A Chinese Burn. Western industrial companies have seen a slowdown in some markets in China as efforts to cool the world’s second largest economy have hit demand for capital goods and products linked to the construction industry. China was until recently a source of rapid growth for US and European manufacturers, helping to offset weak sales in developed countries.

Telegraph:

Barack Obama is Trying to Make the US a More Socialist State. The ideas the President outlined in the State of the Union are based on the very model that is causing the EU to implode. Barack Obama is now putting the United States squarely a decade behind Britain. Listening to the President’s State of the Union message last week was like a surreal visit to our own recent past: there were, almost word for word, all those interminable Gordon Brown Budgets that preached “fairness” while listing endless new ways in which central government would intervene in every form of economic activity.
Britain Should Be Preparing to Make the Most of the Euro Break-Up.
We're On The Brink, Warns Greece Ahead Of Summit. Greece faces “the spectre of bankruptcy and all the dire consequences that entails”, the Greek prime minister warned last night.

Le Monde:

French President Nicolas Sarkozy plans to announce tomorrow the value-added tax will be increased by 1.6 percentage points to 21.2%.

Xinhua:

China has no plans to invest local pensions in the market "temporarily," citing Yin Chengji, spokesman of the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security.

Caixin Online:

China may impose a 10% tax on profits from stock investment by qualified foreign institutional investors for the first time since the funds were set up nine years ago.

Beijing Morning Post:

Home sales in China's capital Beijing fell to zero during the week-long Lunar New Year holiday, the first time in three years that no sales were recorded for a week, citing data from the local government. Average home prices dropped 23.6% from a year earlier as of Jan. 27.

Tehran Times:

Iran said it will install its first 20% nuclear fuel plates at the Tehran Research Reactor within a month, citing Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi.

Weekend Recommendations

Barron's:

Made positive comments on (YUM), (COH) and (CLF).
Made negative comments on (JAH) and (SHLD).

Night Trading

Asian indices are -1.50% to +.25% on average.
Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 183.50 +3.0 basis points.
Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 145.75 unch.
FTSE-100 futures -.28%.
S&P 500 futures -.50%.
NASDAQ 100 futures -.50%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

(WEN)/.04
(TNB)/.90
(WWW)/.45
(GCI)/.68
(MCK)/1.38
(GGG)/.51
(PCL)/.39
(SLG)/.01
(HOLX)/.32

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

Personal Income for December is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.1% gain in November.
Personal Spending for December is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.1% gain in November.
The PCE Core for December is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.1% gain in November.

10:30 am EST

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity for January is estimated to rise to .5 versus a reading of -3.0 in December.

Upcoming Splits

(CMN) 3-for-2
(TJX) 2-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers

None of note

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

2012-01-29T12:56:00.000-05:00

U.S. Week Ahead by MarketWatch (video).
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on rising global growth fears, some disappointing earnings outlooks, profit-taking, more shorting, technical selling, high energy prices and Eurozone debt angst. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

2012-01-27T19:21:00.001-05:00

S&P 500 1,316.33 +.07%*

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

2012-01-27T19:17:00.000-05:00

Indices

S&P 500 1,316.33 +.07%
DJIA 12,660.40 -.47%
NASDAQ 2,816.55 +1.07%
Russell 2000 796.96 +1.32%
Wilshire 5000 13,712.10 +.40%
Russell 1000 Growth 615.83 +.91%
Russell 1000 Value 651.53 -.92%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 776.59 -.43%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 979.10 +.85%
Morgan Stanley Technology 643.14 +.27%
Transports 5,344.78 +1.21%
Utilities 447.97 -.13%
MSCI Emerging Markets 42.07 +2.28%
Lyxor L/S Equity Long Bias Index 997.38 +.76%
Lyxor L/S Equity Variable Bias Index 817.85 unch.
Lyxor L/S Equity Short Bias Index 556.57 -1.50%

Sentiment/Internals

NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 138,961 +2.27%
Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 241 +74
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 47.0 +4.44%
CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 177,845 +3.87%
CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,341,810 -2.84%
Total Put/Call .88 +11.39%
OEX Put/Call 1.04 -12.61%
ISE Sentiment 139.0 +46.32%
NYSE Arms 1.78 +63.30%
Volatility(VIX) 18.53 +1.37%
S&P 500 Implied Correlation 73.79 -3.27%
G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 10.30 +.68%
Smart Money Flow Index 10,343.81 +1.25%
Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.692 Trillion unch.
AAII % Bulls 48.40 +2.48%
AAII % Bears 18.91 -19.94%

Futures Spot Prices

CRB Index 317.57 +2.47%
Crude Oil 99.56 +1.19%
Reformulated Gasoline 292.68 +5.07%
Natural Gas 2.76 +15.94%
Heating Oil 307.04 +2.33%
Gold 1,735.40 +3.93%
Bloomberg Base Metals Index 232.63 +5.26%
Copper 388.90 +3.80%
US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 401.67 USD/Ton unch.
China Iron Ore Spot 139.80 USD/Ton unch.
Lumber 237.50 -1.29%
UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,519.49 +1.82%

Economy

ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -6.50% +100 basis points
Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .0088 -59.45%
S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 107.15 +.49%
Citi US Economic Surprise Index 65.40 -5.8 points
Fed Fund Futures imply 36.0% chance of no change, 64.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 3/13
US Dollar Index 78.84 -1.65%
Yield Curve 168.0 -10 basis points
10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.89% -13 basis points
Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $2.902 Trillion +.04%
U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 45.09 -1.05%
Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 225.0 +1.83%
Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 331.47 -4.60%
Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 270.83 -6.23%
Saudi Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 137.26 -5.72%
Iraqi 2028 Government Bonds 78.22 -1.26%
China Blended Corporate Spread Index 680.0 -19 basis points
10-Year TIPS Spread 2.10% +7 basis points
TED Spread 50.0 -2 basis points
3-Month Euribor/OIS Spread 78.0 -7 basis points
3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -72.75 +3.5 basis points
N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 101.14 -6.80%
Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 177.22 -9.94%
Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 265.54 -6.18%
CMBS Super Senior AAA 10-Year Treasury Spread 220.0 +5 basis points
M1 Money Supply $2.219 Trillion -.43%
Commercial Paper Outstanding 971.40 +.40%
4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 377,500 -.70%
Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.8% +10 basis points
Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.98% +10 basis point
Weekly Mortgage Applications 775.60 -4.96%
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -46.4 +1.0 point
Weekly Retail Sales +2.90% -20 basis points
Nationwide Gas $3.39/gallon unch.
U.S. Heating Demand Next 7 Days 25.0% below normal
Baltic Dry Index 726.0 -15.78%
Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 35.0 -6.67%
Rail Freight Carloads 219,706 -4.10%

Best Performing Style

Small-Cap Growth +1.61%

Worst Performing Style

Large-Cap Value -.92%

Leading Sectors

Gold & Silver +8.37%
Airlines +7.83%
Coal +3.94%
Computer Hardware +3.57%
Medical Equipment +2.92%

Lagging Sectors

Banks -1.45%
Defense -1.58%
Telecom -1.64%
Papers -2.35%
I-Banks -2.96%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (14)

ILMN, IPHI, MITI, JCP, CA, FLDM, PLCM, DAL, JAH, NUVA, SAVE, VLTR, KNX and ANGO

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (18)

CBU, WWD, MRCY, CR, SON, KSU, RBN, THS, WLP, PJC, MTZ, SNDK, GLW, CRR, CCOI, IDCC, TWIN and MNTA

Weekly Charts
ETFs

Stocks

*5-Day Change

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Global Growth Fears, Profit-Taking, Some Earnings Disappointments

2012-01-27T15:26:00.003-05:00

Broad Market Tone:

Advance/Decline Line: Higher
Sector Performance: Mixed
Volume: Below Average
Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

VIX 18.46 -.59%
ISE Sentiment Index 130.0 +73.33%
Total Put/Call .95 -2.06%
NYSE Arms 1.48 -20.65%

Credit Investor Angst:

North American Investment Grade CDS Index 101.14 +.70%
European Financial Sector CDS Index 177.12 -1.93%
Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 331.63 -.37%
Emerging Market CDS Index 266.87 -.05%
2-Year Swap Spread 32.0 -1 bp
TED Spread 50.0 -1 bp
3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -73.0 -4.0 basis points

Economic Gauges:

3-Month T-Bill Yield .05% unch.
Yield Curve 169.0 -3 bps
China Import Iron Ore Spot $139.80/Metric Tonne unch.
Citi US Economic Surprise Index 65.40 -3.2 points
10-Year TIPS Spread 2.10 -1 bp

Overseas Futures:

Nikkei Futures: Indicating -26 open in Japan
DAX Futures: Indicating +6 open in Germany

Portfolio:

Higher: On gains in my Technology, Biotech, Medical and Retail sector longs
Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM), (QQQ) hedges and then covered some of them, added to my (GOOG) long and took profits in another tech long
Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is mildly bearish, as the S&P 500 trades slightly lower, but near session highs, on more global growth fears, profit-taking, more shorting, technical selling, high energy prices and some earnings disappointments. On the positive side, Coal, Alt Energy, Oil Service, Gold & Silver, Hospital, HMO and Airline shares are especially strong, rising more than +1.25%. Small-caps are outperforming. The UBS-Bloomberg Ag Spot Index is falling -.5% and Oil is down -.25%. Oil continues to trade poorly given the recent uptick in saber-rattling from Iran, escalating violence in Mid-east, better US economic data and euro bounce. Major Asian indices rose around +.5% overnight, led by a +.92% gain in India shares. The Germany sovereign cds is falling -2.25% to 85.0 bps, the Italy sovereign cds is down -5.4% to 399.17 bps, the France sovereign cds is falling -3.2% to 166.0 bps and the Belgium sovereign cds is down -5.72% to 240.0 bps. The Italian/German 10Y Yield Spread is falling -3.4% to 403.95 bps. On the negative side, Energy, Utility, Defense and Drug shares are under pressure, falling more than -.5%. The Portugal sovereign cds is up +2.68% to 1,433.35 bps(+32.5% in 10 days to new record high), the Japan sovereign cds is gaining +2.7% to 132.36 bps, the Hungary sovereign cds is rising +1.2% to 581.0 bps and the Brazil sovereign cds is rising +1.75% to 147.17 bps. Lumber has declined -11.0% since its Dec. 29th high and is still near the lower end of its recent range(near a multi-year low) despite the better US economic data, more dovish Fed commentary, improving sentiment towards homebuilders, equity rally and decline in eurozone debt angst. Moreover, the Baltic Dry Index has plunged over -60.0% from its Oct. 14th high and is now down over -50.0% ytd. The 10Y T-Note Yield is falling -4 bps to 1.89% and remains a large concern considering the recent stock rally, falling Eurozone debt angst and improvement in US economic data. The Western Europe Sovereign CDS Index is still near its Jan. 9th all-time high. The TED spread is near the highest since May 2009. The 2Y Euro Swap Spread is near the highest since Nov. 2008. The 3M Euribor-OIS spread is near the highest since February 2009. The Libor-OIS spread is still very near the widest since May 2009, which is also noteworthy considering the equity surge off the recent lows. Overall, the improvement in credit gauges appears to be stalling at still stressed levels, which may be related to rising concerns surrounding Portugal. China Iron Ore Spot has plunged -22.8% since Sept. 7th of last year. Shanghai Copper Inventories are up over 300.0% ytd to the highest level since March of last year. Bloomberg ran a concerning story last night on India’s most expensive property market. Residential home sales in Mumbai hit a 3-year low in December as prices hit another record. The city’s unsold inventory hit 44 months worth(healthy market normally has around 8 months) at the current absorption rate. Major European indices fell around -1.0%, with the Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services Index falling -.87%. European equities continue to price in a pause in the debt crisis and a stabilization in economic growth. While the "debt crisis can" appears to have been kicked again, economic growth is likely to contract further in the region over the coming months as more austerity measures take hold. The Philly Fed’s ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index has stalled over the last 3 weeks after showing meaningful improvement from mid-Nov. through year-end. Equity investors are currently pricing in a successful outcome to the Greece bailout talks and a calming in Portugal's serious debt situation. I am more concerned about the latter. Volume is poor today and trading has an unstable feel. For an intermediate-term equity advance from current levels, I would still expect to see further European credit gauge improvement, subsiding hard-landing fears in key emerging markets, a rising 10-year yield, better volume, stable-to-lower energy prices and higher-quality stock market leadership. One of my longs, (GOOG), is bouncing strongly off its 200-day moving average ahead of Facebook's IPO, which will make its shares look even cheaper. I think the shares offer compelling value around current levels and should outperform over the intermediate-term. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on less Eurozone debt angst, short-covering and more tech/financial sector optimism.

Bear Radar

2012-01-27T14:05:00.001-05:00

Style Underperformer:

Large-Cap Value -.70%

Sector Underperformers:

1) Utilities -1.40% 2) Energy -.60% 3) Restaurants -.50%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

RVBD, JNPR, DISH, LO, AEP, CVX, BP, FRAN, CRUS, ABAX, OMCL, ABFS, IDXX, HUBG, SBUX, ESIO, JDSU, MIND, YRCW, HBHC, CHRW, CAVM, PLXS, DISH, RHI, FRAN, KMP, F, CB, LM, QUAD, GDOT, DV, ARBA, FICO, RHI and NRGY

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

1) RVBD 2) LO 3) ECA 4) CB 5) CRR

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

1) CLF 2) JNPR 3) RVBD 4) NRGY 5) AEP

Charts:

Bull Radar

2012-01-27T11:16:00.001-05:00

Style Outperformer:

Small-Cap Growth +.63%

Sector Outperformers:

1) Gold & Silver +1.75% 2) Airlines +1.73% 3) Oil Service +1.46%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

CCI, SA, CPHD, INFA, SYNA, QGLC, KLAC, TSRA, STX, FSLR, CLNE, SGEN, EMN, WMS, ATE, ELX, NWL, RMD, SOA, INVN, HUN, UAL, ROC, KND and GDP

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

1) FTR 2) CHRW 3) INFA 4) CIGX 5) JAG

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

1) SBUX 2) BA 3) CPHD 4) JCP 5) LMT

Charts:

Friday Watch

2012-01-27T00:50:00.002-05:00

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:

Ackermann Says Greece Solution Still ‘Open Question’ as Debt Talks Resume. Resolving the Greek sovereign-debt crisis is crucial to avoiding contagion in Europe, said Deutsche Bank AG (DBK) Chief Executive Officer Josef Ackermann, as private bondholders met Prime Minister Lucas Papademos to seek an accord to cut the nation’s borrowings. “I’m confident that we can get our act together in Greece and avoid a major contagion, but that is still a very open question,” Ackermann told Bloomberg News in an interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland yesterday. “That will have a very decisive impact on what is happening in the economy.” Ackermann chairs the Institute of International Finance, the Washington-based industry group that’s leading the debt-swap talks on behalf of private bondholders. “Some progress” was made at a meeting last night in Athens between Charles Dallara, the IIF’s managing director, and Papademos after European finance ministers demanded this week that bondholders take bigger losses on their Greek holdings. Work is set to continue today, the IIF said in an e-mailed statement. Ackermann, 63, said the cost of allowing Greece to fail would stretch beyond sovereign debt to investments in the country and the collapse of its economy. “On top of that you have contagion -- Portugal is already under scrutiny, Italy, Ireland, Spain and so on,” he said in a CNBC interview.
Schaeuble Says Greek Government Must Act, Stuttgarter Reports. The Greek government must fulfill promises attached to earlier aid packages before expecting more money, the Stuttgarter Zeitung reported, citing an interview with German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble. “We have enough proclamations; now the government in Athens must act,” the newspaper quoted Schaeuble as saying in an e-mailed preview of an interview to be published today. “We insist that Greece fulfill the requirements of the initial aid program,” which it hasn’t fully implemented, the newspaper cited him as saying. Greece must meet those conditions before another aid package can be considered, the newspaper said, quoting Schaeuble as saying that there’s still enough capacity in the current European Financial Stability Facility rescue package. The newspaper also cited Schaeuble as saying there is “frustration” that the U.S. hasn’t addressed its “debt problems.”
Euro Falls as Greece, Creditors Wrangle Over Debt-Swap Agreement. The euro fell, snapping a four-day gain against the dollar amid concern Greece is struggling to reach agreement with its creditors on a debt-swap arrangement. The yen rose against all of its 16 major peers as Asian stocks halted an advance, boosting demand for safer assets. The dollar’s appreciation was limited before U.S. data forecast to show an acceleration in economic growth and after the Federal Reserve pledged to keep interest rates low until late 2014. “I see the euro testing lower,” said Takuji Okubo, chief Japan economist at Societe Generale SA in Tokyo. “Uncertainties remain in Europe as there are lingering concerns about the Greek debt-swap deal being delayed.”
Fed Easing May Harm Long-Term Economic Growth, Warsh Says. Former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh said the central bank’s record monetary easing may set back the U.S. economic expansion and that he’s concerned policy makers are pushing investors into riskier assets. “Recent policy activism -- measures that go beyond a central bank’s capacity or traditional remit -- threatens to forestall recovery and harms long-term growth,” Warsh said in a speech today in Stanford, California. The former governor said he hopes the Fed’s pledge to hold rates low until at least late 2014 isn’t seen as a “guarantee” that “reacquaints consumers with bad habits.” The former policy maker said he’s not “terribly comfortable with the idea of pushing consumers into riskier assets,” which is the impression left by the Fed’s decision yesterday to keep the benchmark U.S. interest rate near zero through at least late 2014. He also criticized the Fed for unveiling policy makers’ projections for the path of interest rates, and voiced doubt about the central bank’s new inflation target. While Warsh voted for the central bank’s large-scale asset buying programs, he questioned the $600 billion in Treasury purchases announced in November of 2010. He said the purchases posed “nontrivial risks” in a speech and opinion article a few days after the Fed’s announcement. Today, he went further and challenged the idea that new asset purchases would help the economy. “I don’t believe balance-sheet expansion at this moment passes the benefit-cost test,” Warsh said in response to audience questions. The former Fed governor also said that while the central bank has done a “reasonable job” of holding down long-term bond yields, he would be “more comfortable” if private market participants were setting long-term interest rates. The speech constitutes Warsh’s first public comment since he retired from the central bank in April.
Gold Bulls Ascendant Amid Best Start to Year in Three Decades: Commodities. Gold traders are bullish for a fourth consecutive week, betting that the Federal Reserve’s pledge to keep interest rates low until late 2014 will extend the metal’s best start to a year in more than three decades. Nine of 15 surveyed by Bloomberg expect prices to gain next week. The value of gold held in exchange-traded products jumped $3.9 billion on Jan. 25, the most since October, as the central bank laid the groundwork for a possible third round of asset purchases, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Lower interest rates increase the appeal of bullion because it generally earns investors returns only through price gains.
South Korean Manufacturers' Confidence Index Is Near Lowest Since July '09. South Korean manufacturers’ confidence is near a 30-month low as Europe’s debt crisis dims the outlook for exports. An index measuring expectations for February was at 81 from January’s 79, the lowest level since July 2009, a statement from the Bank of Korea showed in Seoul today. A measure of expectations at non-manufacturing companies was unchanged at 79.
Mumbai's Home Sales Decline to Three-Year Low as Record Prices Dent Demand. Mumbai’s residential home sales dropped to a three-year low in the quarter ended December as record home prices and higher interest rates crimped demand, according to Liases Foras Real Estate Rating & Research Pvt. Sales in Mumbai, India’s most expensive property market, fell 17 percent from the previous quarter to 7.59 million square feet, said Pankaj Kapoor, founder of Liases Foras. The city’s unsold inventory, or the number of months needed to clear stock at the existing absorption rate, climbed to 44 months. A “healthy market” normally maintains about eight months of inventory, according to Kapoor. “The likely scenario looks like we will see a dip in prices seeing the dismal sales and as liquidity remains tight,” Kapoor said in a phone interview from Mumbai yesterday. The city’s unsold inventory climbed to a record 119.85 million square feet, according to Liases Foras, a Mumbai real estate research company whose clients include Housing Development Finance Corp. (HDFC), India’s largest mortgage lender. The weighted average selling price in Mumbai climbed to a record 10,558 rupees ($210) a square foot, the data showed.
GM(GM) Seen Accelerating Opel Restructuring as Sales Plunge: Cars. The financial crisis in Europe is adding new urgency to General Motors Co.'s attempt to turn around its money-burning Opel unit. GM, which has already trimmed its European work force by 5,800, is considering a variety of additional steps to stem the losses. The company is looking to find greater cost savings between Opel and Chevrolet operations in Europe, Tim Lee, president of GM's international operations, told reporters this month at the Detroit auto show.

Wall Street Journal:

Investors Abandoning Copper, Cotton, Crude. The commodities market is shrinking. Amid plunging prices and soaring volatility, investors and traders reduced bets on 13 key commodity contracts by 19% in 2011, according to a Wall Street Journal/Dow Jones Newswires analysis of U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. The data show so-called open interest, or the number of futures and options contracts outstanding in each commodity. The exodus was the biggest in at least 12 years, outpacing the flight seen in 2008 during the financial crisis, the data show. And it came from a range of commodities—from crude oil to copper to cotton. Investors of all stripes bolted for the exits, including hedge funds and producers and consumers of raw materials. Index funds and other investment products often used by retail investors also showed outflows in the last months of the year, according to Barclays Capital.
Rig Owner Spared Some Spill Costs. The owner of the Deepwater Horizon drilling rig won't have to pay compensatory damages related to oil spilled under the ocean in the worst offshore spill in U.S. history, a judge ruled Thursday. BP PLC is required to indemnify Transocean Ltd.(RIG), the owner of Deepwater Horizon, against compensatory damages related to the 2010 spill in the Gulf of Mexico, U.S. District Judge Carl Barbier in New Orleans ruled.
Central Banks Diversify Their Arsenals. Deploying Unconventional Balance-Sheet Techniques From Bank Loans to Securities Purchases. For the world's largest central banks, the balance sheet has been the weapon of necessity in a crisis-riddled global economy—a weapon they appear likely to keep using in 2012. Before the 2008 crisis, most central banks managed credit, inflation and economic growth by moving short-term interest rates up or down in small increments. More recently, with rates near zero in the U.S., U.K. and Japan, and not far from zero in the euro zone, the world's largest central banks have resorted to making unconventional loans and ramping up the size of their portfolios of securities, actions that economists call balance-sheet expansion because it means the banks' stockpiles of assets are growing.
EU Red-Flags 'Volcker'. Planned U.S. Rule on Banks' Bets Is Seen as Threat to Worsen Debt Crisis. The European Commission will complain to Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner that proposed U.S. regulations could discourage banks from trading European sovereign bonds, potentially increasing funding costs for the continent's governments. Michel Barnier, the European commissioner for the internal market, said in an interview that he will raise objections with Mr. Geithner next month about the potential impact of the planned "Volcker rule," which is aimed at restricting banks from trading with their own capital.
Gingrich, Romney Take Off Gloves. Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich sought both to settle old scores and unfurl new attacks Thursday night in the final high-stakes debate before Florida's pivotal primary.
In Standoff, Egypt Blocks Americans From Leaving. Egypt banned six American pro-democracy workers from leaving the country, including the son of a U.S. cabinet secretary, as relations between the country's military leaders and their longtime benefactors in Washington plumbed new lows. The move came despite a personal appeal by President Barack Obama, who last Friday phoned Egypt's top general to underscore the importance of civil society. The next day, Cairo Airport immigration officials told Sam LaHood, son of U.S. Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood, that he was barred from leaving Egypt because he was the subject of an investigation for his work as the director of the Cairo office of the International Republican Institute, a U.S.-funded pro-democracy organization. "Our attorney tells me this is like a hostage situation, and we're the hostage," the younger Mr. LaHood said Thursday. "Nobody wants a hostage to die, but they're playing hardball and they want to get something out of it."
Banks Face Bind Over Cash Pile. After receiving nearly half a trillion euros in cheap loans from the European Central Bank last month, the Continent's banks face a dilemma: to invest the money in lucrative but potentially risky government bonds or hoard the cash at a loss. The choice reflects the uncertainty surrounding Europe's financial system at a time when dark clouds continue to hover over the euro-zone economy and its common currency. Regardless of whether banks use the money to buy bonds or simply stash it at the central bank for safekeeping, consumers and businesses are unlikely to see much of the funds.

MarketWatch:

Are Analysts Missing The Big Picture On Google(GOOG)?
Starbucks(SBUX) Rides Strength Of U.S. Consumers. Starbucks, riding the strength of U.S. consumer spending and sales of its new coffee packs for single-cup brewers, reported late Thursday fiscal first-quarter profit rose 10% from a year ago.

Zero Hedge:

Financials Have Worst Day Of Year As Fed Is Faded.

NY Times:

In Punishing Year for Hedge Funds, Biggest One Thrived. The world’s biggest hedge fund is also one of the best performers. Bridgewater Associates, which manages nearly $120 billion, posted returns of 23 percent in 2011 — a year when the average hedge fund portfolio lost 5 percent. Against the backdrop of fear over European debt and stagnant global growth, the hedge fund, led by one of Wall Street’s more enigmatic titans, Ray Dalio, sidestepped the mess. The fund did it with bets on United States Treasuries, German bonds and the Japanese yen, according to people familiar with the firm’s investment strategy, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the information is private.
For Greece, the Outlook Is Still Grim. Even as Greece tries to convince creditors that its debt-reduction efforts are on track, gloomy new International Monetary Fund forecasts about its long-term economy are threatening to derail talks meant to secure the nation’s next big installment of bailout funds.

Chicago Tribune:

Proposals in Illinois Would Regulate Online Dating. Online dating websites operating in Illinois would face regulations under two separate but similar proposals introduced in the Illinois House and Illinois Senate.

Reuters:

Juniper's(JNPR) Weak Q1 Forecast Stings Shares. Juniper Networks Inc reported lower-than-expected quarterly revenue hurt by weak demand from service providers, and the network equipment maker forecast a first quarter well below analyst estimates, sending its shares down 8 percent after the bell. "They (Juniper) continued to suffer from carrier capex, which is weak, and their end markets are becoming more competitive ... especially from HP," ThinkEquity Analyst Rajesh Ghai told Reuters. "They are losing share and that has been exacerbated by a soft quarter and you are starting to see that in the gross margins, and that is also evidence that competition has intensified," Mizuho Securities USA analyst Joanna Makris told Reuters. Gross margins fell sequentially to 11.9 percent from 12.4 percent in the third quarter. Juniper's shares, which closed at $22.37 on Thursday on the New York Stock Exchange, were down 8 percent to $20.55 in extended trade.
Cliffs Natural(CLF) Cuts 2011 Outlook For Iron Ore Volumes. Mining company Cliffs Natural Resources Inc forecast weak full-year sales volumes at its Eastern Canadian and Asia Pacific iron ore businesses, hurt by lower sales of pellets and delayed shipments. Cliffs forecast 2011 sales volume of 7.4 million tons in its Eastern Canadian iron ore segment, down from its prior forecast of 8 million tons. The company also slightly trimmed its sales volumes outlook for its Asia Pacific iron ore unit, citing the timing of two shipments. However, Cliffs said volumes at its U.S. iron ore business would be in line with its previous expectations.
Riverbed(RVBD) Forecasts Weak Q1, Shares Fall. Riverbed Technology Inc forecast a bleak first quarter as the network equipment maker expects disruption in product sales, sending its shares down more than 14 percent in trading after the bell.

Financial Times:

JPMorgan(JPM) Admits It Weighed Euro Exit. Jamie Dimon, the straight-talking chief executive of JPMorgan, has admitted the bank considered pulling out of the eurozone’s most troubled periphery on economic grounds, but ultimately opted instead to stay for the long term. “We have about $15bn exposure across the euro five,” Mr Dimon said, referring to Ireland, Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain.

Telegraph:

Investors Fear Mounting Losses in Portugal as Second Rescue Looms. Portugal is fighting a losing battle to contain its public debt and may be forced to impose haircuts of up to 50pc on private creditors, according to a top German institute. A report for the Kiel Institute for the World Economy said Portugal would have to run a primary budget surplus of over 11pc of GDP a year to prevent debt dynamics spiralling out of control, even in a benign scenario of 2pc annual growth. "Portugal's debt is unsustainable. That is the only possible conclusion," said David Bencek, the co-author, warning that no country can achieve a primary budget surplus above 5pc for long. "We won't know what the trigger will be but once there is a decision on Greece people are going to start looking closely and realise that Portugal is the same position as Greece was a year ago." Yields on Portugal's five-year bonds surged on Thursday to a record 18.9pc, reflecting fears that the country will need a second rescue from the EU-ECB-IMF Troika. Three-year yields hit 21pc.
Barclays(BCS) Warns EU Capital Plan Will Hurt Small Businesses. Barclays has attacked European Union plans to impose a single capital charge on trade finance loans, saying they will "disproportionately" hit smaller businesses, damaging growth and stifling job creation.

The Standard:

Soros Doubts China Growth Momentum. Billionaire hedge fund manager George Soros - who opted out of the game some time ago - is doubtful China's economy will chug along at a resilient pace again this year. "China's central government has released signals to help the public prepare for slow growth this year," Soros said at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, yesterday. "Weak exports make it difficult to reach 8 percent GDP growth."

Evening Recommendations

None of note

Night Trading

Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 180.50 -5.0 basis points.
Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 145.75 -3.5 basis points.
FTSE-100 futures -.60%.
S&P 500 futures -.27%.
NASDAQ 100 futures -.17%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

(AOS)/.64
(MO)/.49
(AEP)/.40
(IDXX)/.63
(CVX)/2.94
(D)/.64
(DHI)/.05
(F)/.26
(HON)/1.05
(LM)/.25
(NWL)/.38
(PG)/1.08
(TROW)/.69
(SCCO)/.66

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

Advance 4Q GDP is estimated to rise +3.0% versus a +1.8% gain in 3Q.
Advance 4Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise +2.4% versus a +1.7% gain in 3Q.
Advance 4Q GDP Price Index is estimated to rise +1.9% versus a +2.6% gain in 3Q.
Advance 4Q Core PCE is estimated to rise +.9% versus a +2.1% gain in 3Q.

9:55 am EST

Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for January is estimated at 74.0 versus a prior estimate of 74.0.

Upcoming Splits

None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

The Fed's Dudley speaking and the ECB's Draghi speaking could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Less Financial Sector Optimism, Global Growth Fears, Euro Reversal, Technical Selling

2012-01-26T16:07:00.001-05:00

Broad Market Tone:

Advance/Decline Line: Lower
Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
Volume: Slightly Below Average
Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

VIX 18.89 +3.17%
ISE Sentiment Index 84.0 -27.59%
Total Put/Call .95 +23.88%
NYSE Arms 1.86 +113.90%

Credit Investor Angst:

North American Investment Grade CDS Index 100.44 -3.62%
European Financial Sector CDS Index 180.57 -8.43%
Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 332.72 -1.49%
Emerging Market CDS Index 266.32 -3.53%
2-Year Swap Spread 33.0 unch.
TED Spread 51.0 -1 bp
3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -69.0 +5.0 basis points

Economic Gauges:

3-Month T-Bill Yield .05% +2 bps
Yield Curve 172.0 -10 bps
China Import Iron Ore Spot $139.80/Metric Tonne unch.
Citi US Economic Surprise Index 68.60 -1.3 points
10-Year TIPS Spread 2.11 unch.

Overseas Futures:

Nikkei Futures: Indicating +3 open in Japan
DAX Futures: Indicating -25 open in Germany

Portfolio:

Slightly Lower: On losses in my Technology, Biotech and Retail sector longs
Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM), (QQQ) hedges and then covered some of them
Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is bearish, as the S&P 500 trades near session lows on less financial sector optimism, more global growth fears, profit-taking, more shorting, technical selling, high energy prices, some earnings disappointments and a reversal lower in the euro. On the positive side, Oil Tanker, REIT and Airline shares are higher on the day. Copper is rising +1.5% and Lumber is gaining +1.1%. Despite today's slight gain, oil continues to trade poorly given the recent uptick in saber-rattling from Iran, escalating violence in Mid-east, better US economic data and euro bounce. Asian indices were mostly higher overnight, led by a +1.6% gain in Hong Kong shares. Major European indices were up around +1.5% with the Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services Index rising +1.74%. The Germany sovereign cds is falling -3.83% to 86.81 bps, the Italy sovereign cds is down -4.24% to 421.83 bps and the Belgium sovereign cds is down -3.2% to 255.83 bps. The Italian/German 10Y Yield Spread is falling -2.48% to 418.07 bps. On the negative side, Coal, Energy, Semi, Disk Drive, Telecom, Bank, I-Banking, HMO and Education shares are especially weak, falling more than -1.5%. The Portugal sovereign cds is up +6.8% to 1,404.83 bps(+30% in 10 days to new record high) and the France sovereign cds is rising +.3% to 172.50 bps . Lumber has declined -11.0% since its Dec. 29th high and is still near the lower end of its recent range, near a multi-year low, despite the better US economic data, improving sentiment towards homebuilders, equity rally and decline in eurozone debt angst. Moreover, the Baltic Dry Index has plunged over -60.0% from its Oct. 14th high and is now down over -50.0% ytd. The 10Y T-Note Yield is falling -6 bps to 1.94% and remains a large concern considering the recent stock rally and improvement in US economic data. The Western Europe Sovereign CDS Index is still near its Jan. 9th all-time high. The TED spread is near the highest since May 2009. The 2Y Euro Swap Spread is near the highest since Nov. 2008. The 3M Euribor-OIS spread is near the highest since February 2009. The Libor-OIS spread is still very near the widest since May 2009, which is also noteworthy considering the equity surge off the recent lows. Overall, while improving, European credit gauges are still at stressed levels. China Iron Ore Spot has plunged -22.8% since Sept. 7th of last year. Shanghai Copper Inventories are up over 300.0% ytd to the highest level since March of last year. The AAII % Bulls rose to 48.40 this week, while the % Bears fell to 18.91(4-wk moving average of % Bears lowest in over 6 years at 19.22%). Overall, investor complacency remains fairly high given the macro backdrop. European equities continue to price in a pause in the debt crisis and a stabilization in economic growth. While the "debt crisis can" appears to have been kicked again, economic growth is likely to contract further in the region over the coming months as more austerity measures take hold. Despite the fact that US economic data have meaningfully improved, stocks have rallied, the Euro debt crisis has temporarily calmed and inflation expectations have risen, the Fed’s statement yesterday was extremely dovish and exuded weakness. In my opinion, US weak dollar policies have greatly contributed to the secular bear that stocks have been mired in for over a decade. For an intermediate-term equity advance from current levels, I would still expect to see further European credit gauge improvement, subsiding hard-landing fears in key emerging markets, a rising 10-year yield, better volume, stable-to-lower energy prices and higher-quality stock market leadership. I expect US stocks to trade modestly lower into the close from current levels on a reversal in the euro, less financial sector optimism, more shorting, profit-taking, rising global growth fears and technical selling.

Today's Headlines

2012-01-26T15:05:00.004-05:00

Bloomberg:

Banks Hoarding ECB Cash to Double Company Defaults: Euro Credit. Corporate defaults may almost double in Europe as companies struggle to refinance debt and banks hoard cash borrowed from the European Central Bank or use it to buy government bonds. Europe’s default rate may soar to 8.4 percent or more, from 4.8 percent at the end of 2011 as the recession bites and company financing dries up, according to Standard & Poor’s. Petroplus Holdings AG (PPHN) became the latest victim of the tough stance banks are adopting when the region’s biggest independent oil refiner said this week it will file for insolvency after losing access to $2.1 billion of credit lines. “It’s very challenging for anyone to raise money from lenders right now,” said Andrew Cleland-Bogle, a Frankfurt- based director at corporate finance specialist DC Advisory Partners. “Combine that with increased bank capital requirements and you can see that although banks are getting money they’re very selective when it comes to lending it. 2012 is going to be a very, very tough year.” Speculative-grade companies have to refinance about 230 billion euros ($300 billion) through 2015, according to S&P. At the same time, banks and loan funds that provided the initial funding are scrambling for capital or reaching the end of their reinvestment periods and may be unwilling to extend loans. Banks are using the 489 billion euros they borrowed at 1 percent from the ECB under its three-year longer-term refinancing operation to scoop up government bonds yielding more than 2.5 percentage points extra instead of lending the money to companies.
EU Delays Bank Bond Writedown Plans Until Fiscal Crisis Abates. Michel Barnier, the European Union's financial services chief, said he'll wait until the region is “past the worst” of its fiscal crisis before unleashing proposals to write down creditors at failing banks. “We have to get past the worst of this crisis to present this proposal at the right moment,” the European Commissioner said in a Bloomberg Television interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. That may be in “some weeks, or rather some months.”
Socialist Hollande Pledges Tax Breaks End, Eased Pension Measure. Francois Hollande, the Socialist candidate seeking to unseat President Nicolas Sarkozy, pledged to ease the government’s pension overhaul and increase taxes to pay for the reversal. Hollande, 57, the frontrunner in the presidential campaign, advocated forcing banks to separate retail and investment operations. He’ll raise levies on the wealthy to finance an expansion of the civil service while respecting budget-cutting commitments. The measures were among 60 in a platform published today. “We must make an effort for more fairness and to rein in the financial industry,” Hollande said in Paris. “We will separate the speculative sector from the credit sector.”
China Says Sanctions on Iran Not 'Constructive,' Xinhua Reports. China said sanctions on Iran’s oil exports are not “constructive” and urged relevant parties to settle international disputes through dialogue, the official Xinhua News Agency reported today, citing comments from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The ministry made the comment after the European Union decided on Jan. 23 to place an embargo on Iran’s oil exports, and to introduce a number of other financial sanctions, the report said.
Crude Oil Surges as Fed Commits to Low Rates. Futures advanced above $100 a barrel as Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said yesterday that policy makers are considering more bond purchases to boost growth after extending the pledge to maintain interest rates. Crude oil for March delivery rose $1.07, or 1.1 percent, to $100.47 a barrel at 12:29 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices touched $101.39, the highest level since Jan. 19. Futures are up 15 percent in the past year. Brent oil for March settlement climbed $1.17, or 1.1 percent, to $110.98 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.
IRS Should End Commodity Mutual-Fund Runaround, Levin Says. U.S. tax authorities should stop a private rulemaking process that has encouraged speculation in oil and agricultural markets by letting mutual funds exceed limits on commodity investments, Senator Carl Levin said. The Internal Revenue Service’s so-called private letter rulings, which let funds use foreign corporations and other strategies to escape the tax implications of boosting commodity holdings above 10 percent of assets, are a “runaround” of the law that reflects a “tortured reading,” Levin said at a news conference yesterday.
First-Time Jobless Claims in U.S. Increase. Applications (INJCJC) for unemployment insurance payments climbed by 21,000 to 377,000 in the week ended Jan. 21, up from an almost four-year low in the prior period, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast of 47 economists in a Bloomberg News survey projected 370,000. The four-week moving average, a less volatile measure than the weekly figures, fell to 377,500 last week from 380,000. The unemployment rate among people eligible for benefits, which tends to track the jobless rate, rose to 2.8 percent from 2.7 percent, today’s report showed.
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Beat Expectations. Orders for U.S. durable goods climbed more than forecast in December, pointing to a rebound in business investment that will help support the world’s largest economy in early 2012. Bookings (DGNOCHNG) for long-lasting goods advanced 3 percent after rising 4.3 percent the prior month, the biggest back-to-back gains in almost a year, according to Commerce Department data today in Washington.
New Home Sales in U.S. Fell in December. Sales of new U.S. homes unexpectedly declined in December for the first time in four months, capping the slowest year on record for builders.

Wall Street Journal:

U.S. Money-Market Funds Cut Euro Zone Bank Debt Holdings. U.S. money-market funds held less debt from banks in the euro zone at the end of 2011 than at any point since at least 2006, according to a Fitch Ratings survey. These funds, among the most conservative and largest lenders, now hold $64 billion, or 10% of their total assets—$644 billion at the end of December—in euro-zone bank debt.
Watchdog: Treasury's 2008 Financial Rescue Could Last Until 2017. The U.S. government's rescue of the financial system could last for five more years as the Treasury Department unwinds its investments in hundreds of banks and other companies propped up in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, a government watchdog said Thursday. The Bush administration launched the financial rescue plan in the autumn of 2008 at the height of the financial crisis. At its launch, Congress authorized spending $700 billion on the bailout known as the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP.
Portugal 5-Yr CDS Wider At Fresh Record High Of 1365 - Markit. The cost of insuring Portuguese debt against default rose to a fresh record high Wednesday, building on records hit this week as investors remain wary due to a lack of clarity on Greece's debt restructuring talks. Portugal's five-year credit default swaps--derivatives that function like a default insurance contract for debt--hit 1365 basis points, 71 basis points wider to Tuesday's close, according to data provider Markit. Portugal was recently downgraded to "junk" by all three major credit rating companies. Portugal is dramatically underperforming the iTraxx SovX Western Europe index--which investors can use to buy or sell credit default swaps on a basket of 15 sovereign borrowers--which at 1238 GMT was eight basis points tighter at 317/322.

MarketWatch:

Monster Worldwide(MWW) to Cut 7% of Jobs. Monster Worldwide Inc. MWW -18.15% reported disappointing fourth-quarter results and gave a downbeat outlook as its chief executive said uncertainty about the economy's direction continues to weigh on hiring. The job-search software maker also said it plans to cut its workforce by 7%. "One thing business doesn't like is indecision," Monster Chief Executive Sal Iannuzzi said in an interview. "We are in a very confused period in terms of whether the economy will stay status-quo or improve or deteriorate further." The results indicated that despite some recent signs of economic stabilization in the U.S., the company's customers remain uneasy.

CNBC.com:

Participants in the World Economic Forum have an attitude to the financial crisis similar to "rearranging the deck chairs ion the Titanic," William Browder, founder of Hermitage Capital Management, said.
Is Fed Move a Sign to Buy Defensive Stocks?

Business Insider:

Zero Hedge:

cnet:

Next Xbox to Prevent You From Playing Used Games? Gaming news site Kotaku reported yesterday that the so-called Xbox 720 will incorporate some type of anti-used game technology. Citing a "reliable industry source," Kotaku admitted that it's not clear how such a technology would be set up and if it means the Xbox wouldn't play used games at all.

Denver Post:

Hedge Funds Regret Buying Greek Debt. Hedge funds that loaded up on Greek bonds in the past month — betting on a quick gain — are scrambling to sell those holdings, fearful that European policymakers will force them to take a deep and binding haircut on the debt. But walking away from the trade may not be that easy. While the money managers had little problem snapping up the bonds from European banks eager to sell, the pool of potential buyers is drying up.

Bespoke Investment Group:

Bearish Sentiment Drops Below 20%. (graph)

Reuters:

JPMorgan(JPM) CEO Says Foreclosure Deal Threatened. JPMorgan Chase & Co Chief Executive Jamie Dimon said President Barack Obama's decision to expand investigations into home lending and sales of mortgage securities could stop settlement talks with the states over foreclosure practices. "It has a pretty good chance of derailing it," Dimon said in a televised interview with CNBC from Davos, Switzerland on Thursday.

Telegraph:

China's Very Mysterious Data. (graphs) I could not help noticing that China’s imports from Japan fell 16.2pc in December. Imports from Taiwan fell 6.2pc. The Shanghai Container Freight Index fell 1.4pc to a record low of 919.44 in November, after sliding relentlessly for several months.
Spain's Finance Minister Cristobal Montoro Admits Unemployment Rate Has Jumped to 24%.

Financial Times Deutschland:

India may place sanctions against Deutsche Lufthansa AG, Air France-KLM, and British Airways to protest the EU's emissions trading system for airlines.

Cicero:

European Central Bank Governing Council member Jens Weidmjann said any "large scale" bond purchases by the ECB would damage the euro, citing an interview. Weidmann was quoted by the magazine as saying that turning the ECB into a lender of last resort for governments would "endanger the existence of the currency union as a union of stability."

Bear Radar

2012-01-26T14:19:00.001-05:00

Style Underperformer:

Mid-Cap Growth -.70%

Sector Underperformers:

1) Education -3.80% 2) Disk Drives -3.0% 3) Banks -2.20%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

PRU, ZION, COG, CRR, CRK, ASBC, HUM, HES, VIV, HMY, DRE, TV, MNTA, SNDK, BVSN, NUVA, SIMO, CEVA, ILMN, TCBI, CTXS, TZOO, SPPI, COLB, WRLD, CLNE, SLAB, LRCX, OSIS, CVD, VAR, CY, PCP, RES, EGN, KRE, PL, BKI, CMA, LNC, ESI, BGG and FTK

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

1) JCP 2) TWC 3) LRCX 4) UA 5) MET

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

1) ETFC 2) CHK 3) GLW 4) SCHW 5) MWW

Charts:

Bull Radar

2012-01-26T11:17:00.000-05:00

Style Outperformer:

Large-Cap Growth -.10%

Sector Outperformers:

1) Airlines +2.25% 2) Gold & Silver +1.69% 3) Steel +1.19%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

MLNX, TWC, TER, RGLD, CAT, CTCM, NGD, MITI, ACAT, PMTC, NFLX, YNDX, VPRT, MPEL, JCP, GHL, URI, UAL, WCC, ZMH, CBG, MJN, KNX, HSC and OI

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

1) ADI 2) LSI 3) CSTR 4) SNDK 5) UA

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

1) NFLX 2) TWC 3) ETN 4) LSI 5) KNX

Charts:

Thursday Watch

2012-01-26T00:14:00.002-05:00

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

Greek Debt Talks to Resume in Athens as Policy Makers Squabble Over Cost. Talks on a debt swap to avert a Greek default resume today as international policy makers squabble over the mounting cost of the rescue. Charles Dallara and Jean Lemierre, negotiating on behalf of private creditors, return to Athens today after European finance ministers insisted bondholders take bigger losses on their Greek debt. The International Monetary Fund further roiled the discussions by suggesting that public holders of Greek bonds might also have to increase support. The parties are groping for a solution three months after private bondholders agreed with European officials to implement a 50 percent cut in the face value of more than 200 billion euros ($262 billion) of debt by voluntarily swapping bonds for new securities. Since then, an economic contraction that exceeded estimates has made the goal of cutting Greece’s debt to 120 percent of gross domestic product by 2020 harder. An accord is tied to a second bailout for the country, which faces a 14.5 billion-euro bond payment on March 20. “The cost of postponing a solution is extremely high for Europe, but especially for the future of the euro,” said Giovanni Bossi, chief executive officer of Banca Ifis SpA, an Italian financial-services company that doesn’t own Greek debt. “The parties are very close to a deal -- it’s time to close.”
Gold Surges to Six-Week High on Fed's Forecast for Low Borrowing Costs. Gold futures surged to a six-week high after the Federal Reserve said it expects “exceptionally low” interest rates through at least late 2014. Silver, platinum and palladium also advanced. Fed Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said at a press conference after the central bank’s statement that the option of further large- scale bond purchases is still “on the table.” Gold has jumped 28 percent in the past 12 months, partly as record-low rates boosted the appeal of the metal as a hedge against inflation. “We saw an immediate reaction in gold” after the Fed’s announcement, Michael A. Gayed, the chief investment strategist who helps oversee $150 million at New York-based Pension Partners LLC, said in a telephone interview. “People are betting that at some point the economy will face inflationary pressures because of the low interest rate.”
CBOE Put-Call Ratio Hits Eight-Month Low on Stock Rally: Options.. The ratio of bearish versus bullish options changing hands on the CBOE slipped to the lowest level since May as traders piled into the S&P 500 Index's rally amid the measure's best start to a year since 1997. The CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio's average over the past 20 days has dropped to .61 and on Jan. 19 the level fell to .47, according to data from the exchange compiled by Bloomberg.
U.S. Banks Face Pressure on Margins From Fed Policy on Rates. Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc. are among lenders that may find it more difficult to boost profits and capital after the Federal Reserve pledged to keep its benchmark interest rate low until at least late 2014. “This hurts the banks, I don’t think there’s any question about that,” said Ralph Cole, a senior vice president of research at Ferguson Wellman Inc. in Portland, Oregon, which manages $2.9 billion. “Their cost of funds stays low but it makes it harder to earn a return.” The Federal Open Market Committee said yesterday that economic conditions are likely to warrant “exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014.” The policy may hurt lenders’ profits as they struggle to find loans or securities with yields high enough to support their net interest margins, a gauge of profitability that measures the difference between the cost of funds and what they earn on assets.
SanDisk(SNDK) Drops as Sales Forecast Misses Estimates on Lower Prices. SanDisk Corp. (SNDK) shares dropped in late trading after the biggest maker of flash-memory cards gave a first-quarter sales forecast that missed analysts’ estimates, citing lower prices for chips that store data in mobile phones. Sales in the current period will be $1.3 billion to $1.35 billion, Chief Financial Officer Judy Bruner said on a conference call today. Milpitas, California-based Sandisk was projected to have sales of $1.46 billion, the average estimate of analysts in a Bloomberg survey. The shares declined as much as 11 percent.
China Police Open Fire on Tibetans. Police in southwestern China opened fire on protesters in a Tibetan enclave during a clash Jan. 24, the second straight day of deadly protests in the area, the official Xinhua News Agency reported. The confrontation occurred after a crowd gathered two days ago near the Chengguan Police Station, Xinhua said yesterday, citing an unidentified police officer. The crowd refused to disperse and then stormed the station with knives, gasoline bottles and stones, according to the report. Police opened fire after attempts to disperse the crowd by non-lethal means failed, Xinhua reported. One protester was killed and another injured, in addition to 14 police wounded, according to the report. “The Tibetan people are unhappy and restive about their lot in China,” Mohan Guruswamy, chairman of the Centre for Policy Alternatives, a New Delhi-based research group, said in an e-mail. “There is ample evidence of it, and the acute Chinese sensitivity to any comment on Tibet is only proof.”
South Korea's Economy Grows at Slowest Pace in Years. South Korea’s economy grew the least in two years in the fourth quarter as exports sank because of Europe’s sovereign debt crisis and a faltering global expansion. Gross domestic product expanded 0.4 percent from the third quarter, when it gained 0.8 percent, the central bank said in Seoul today. That was less than the median 0.5 percent estimate of 10 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
Logitech Cuts Its Full-Year Forecasts. Logitech International SA (LOGN), the world’s biggest maker of computer mice, cut its forecasts for sales and operating income, citing the weaker euro and decreased demand for products such as web cameras and remote controls. The company changed its sales forecast for the fiscal year ending March 31 to $2.3 billion, with operating income estimated at $60 million. Logitech, which also produces gaming devices, in September cut its forecast for full-year operating profit to about $90 million on sales of about $2.4 billion. “The euro has weakened considerably during the last three months,” Chairman and interim Chief Executive Officer Guerrino De Luca said in the statement. “In addition, webcams and remotes continue to be impacted more than expected by product portfolio and market weakness.”

Wall Street Journal:

SEC Puts Private Equity Under the Enforcement Microscope. A panel of three members from the SEC’s asset management unit, which was created in 2010 within the agency’s enforcement division, pointed to an increased likelihood of enforcement actions against private equity firms in the coming years. “I think that private equity law enforcement today is where hedge fund law enforcement was five or six years ago,” Robert Kaplan, co-chief of the asset management unit said Wednesday during the Private Equity Analyst Outlook conference in New York. In the past 12 months, the SEC’s enforcement division brought about 50 cases against hedge fund managers, Kaplan said.
The Development Ladder, Post-Crisis. World Bank Chief Economist Lin Yifu on Industrialization and the Lessons to Learn From Financial Meltdowns.
How Green Became Obama's Albatross. The president is trapped by his own rhetoric amid America's energy boom. He knows China and India are opening a new coal plant every week. He knows the huge amounts of fossil energy lying at humanity's feet won't be abandoned just because an American president says so. He can't fail to notice that Canada's oil sands won't remain undeveloped; the oil will go to the Far East. Mr. Obama also seems enough of a free thinker to entertain the possibility at least that global warming theory may be wrong. In a telling exchange with interviewer Charlie Rose a few years ago, Al Gore was asked to describe the evidence of man's role in climate change. Each time Mr. Gore recurred to some version of a "consensus of scientists" or "the most respected scientists whose judgment I think is the best." The truth is, the theory may be popular, but the evidence has thus far eluded the tens of billions spent on climate science. The temperature data are so noisy that they reveal no pattern connecting rising CO2 in the industrial age with temperature trends. Some say because CO2 is a "greenhouse" gas, shut up, case closed. But the known relationship between carbon and climate doesn't actually indicate a big reason to worry.
Lam Research(LRCX) 2Q Profit Slumps 85% On Sharp Sales Drop. Lam Research Corp.'s (LRCX) fiscal second-quarter earnings slumped 85% as the semiconductor-equipment maker's revenue dropped sharply. The company anticipated near-term declines in spending on wafer-fabrication equipment amid an industry slowdown in the second half of last year.
Uphill Fight Awaits New Mortgage - Fraud Unit. The Justice Department's plan to create a new mortgage-crime unit in tandem with state authorities, announced by President Barack Obama in his State of the Union address, represents the latest move in an effort that so far has led to few prosecutions of bankers. The new unit may help push forward a broad settlement under which banks would pay billions of dollars to resolve charges about "robo-signing" documents and other alleged mortgage abuses. But when it comes to bringing criminal charges against individual executives, the unit is likely to face the same kind of difficulties earlier task forces have encountered.
Public Pensions Increase Private-Equity Investments. Large public pension plans are pouring more money into private-equity funds, deepening ties between government workers and an industry currently under the harsh glare of U.S. presidential politics. Big public-employee pensions had about $220 billion invested in private equity in September, or 11% of their assets, according to Wilshire Trust Universe Comparison Service, which tracks the holdings of pensions, foundations and endowments.
The Buffett Ruse. Obama's ploy means the highest capital gains tax rate since 1978. Remember the moment in 2008 when Charlie Gibson of ABC News asked Senator Barack Obama why he would support raising the capital gains tax even though "revenues from the tax increased" when the rate fell? Mr. Obama's famous reply: "I would look at raising the capital gains tax for purposes of fairness." Well, we were warned.
With EU Embargo on Iran Oil, Chinese Traders Poised to Profit. Europe’s decision to embargo Iranian oil exports is strategically sound, since a nuclear-armed Iran is in no one’s interest. Yet, policymakers are overlooking how an embargo may strategically reshape the global oil trade in China’s favor. Major Chinese oil traders are building businesses that are world class in terms of volumes traded. The latest oil embargo will help them further their ambitions.

Business Insider:

Zero Hedge:

Market Now Pricing In $770 Billion Increase In Fed Balance Sheet.

CNBC:

Larry McDonald Calls Portugal CDS a Bear Signal. Action in Portugal’s credit-default swaps might be a telling bear signal, economic expert and author Larry McDonald said Wednesday. While Greece has “backup” private-sector involvement that could buoy its economy, the Portugal CDS 5-Year [PTCD5 1453.03 7.37 (+0.51%) ] was at record levels, McDonald said on “Fast Money.” “It’s decoupling from the rest of the group,” he said. McDonald likened the situation with Portugal and Greece to a financial event horizon in 2008. “The political will to save Lehman Brothers — and I talk about this in my book — was really taken away from Bear Stearns,” he said. McDonald called it a bearish signal in the intermediate term.
Government Trying to 'Cripple' Banks: Dick Bove. Between the Federal Reserve’s announcement that it will not raise interest rates until at least 2014 and President Obama’s mortgage refinancing plan, the government is trying to cripple the banking system, noted bank analyst Dick Bove told “The Kudlow Report” Wednesday. “What this government is doing is its attempting to restrict or cripple the banking system so it cannot perform the way it wants in terms of assisting the economy,” the Rochdale Securities analyst said.
Netflix(NFLX) Blows Past Expectations; Shares Jump 15%. Netflix's fourth-quarter earnings and revenue outpaced Wall Street's expectations as the video-rental website reversed subscriber losses to sign up more than 600,000 new U.S. customers in the period.

NY Times:

Fed Signals That a Full Recovery Is Years Away.

Washington Post:

Philippines May Allow Greater U.S. Military Presence In Reaction To China's Rise. Two decades after evicting U.S. forces from their biggest base in the Pacific, the Philippines is in talks with the Obama administration about expanding the American military presence in the island nation, the latest in a series of strategic moves aimed at China.

Financial Times:

Meddle With The Market At Your Peril by Alan Greenspan. Income inequality reflects globalization.

Telegraph:

As Soros Says, Things Could Be Worse For The UK: We Could Be In The Euro.
UK Heading For First Double-Dip Recession Since 1975. Britain is heading for its first double-dip recession in 37 years after the economy slumped in the final quarter of 2011 and officials warned of a new threat to jobs.
Angela Merkel Defiant as IMF Leads Attack on Germany. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has defied calls for a radical shift in strategy to lift Europe out of crisis but is increasingly isolated as the International Monetary Fund and key global bodies join ranks to force her hand.

The Guardian:

Angela Merkel Casts Doubt On Saving Greece From Financial Meltdown. German chancellor speaks candidly to the Guardian and five other leading European newspapers as part of a unique collaboration to explore the EU's predicament. Angela Merkel has cast doubt for the first time on Europe's chances of saving Greece from financial meltdown and sovereign default, conceding that Europe's first ever multibillion euro bailout coupled with savage austerity was not working after a two-year crisis that has brought the single currency to the brink of unravelling.

Evening Recommendations

None of note

Night Trading

Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.
Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 185.50 -5.5 basis points.
Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 149.25 +.5 basis point.
FTSE-100 futures +.59%.
S&P 500 futures -.06%.
NASDAQ 100 futures -.10%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

(CL)/1.29
(ABC)/.63
(ETN)/1.12
(QSII)/.37
(AN)/.49
(MWW)/.11
(NUE)/.27
(ESI)/2.31
(RTN)/1.34
(UA)/.60
(ZMH)/1.34
(BMY)/.55
(MMM)/1.30
(CAT)/1.73
(LMT)/1.95
(T)/.43
(MXIM)/.32
(RHI)/.31
(SBUX)/.39
(KLAC)/.65
(RVBD)/.24
(RYL)/.09
(JNPR)/.28
(JBHT)/.58
(WMS)/.30
(CB)/1.60
(DV)/1.00
(BAX)/1.17
(CRR)/1.70

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for Dec. is estimated to rise to -.10 versus -.37 in November.
Durable Goods Orders for December are estimated to rise +2.0% versus a +3.8% gain in November.
Durables Ex Transports for December are estimated to rise +.9% versus a +.3% gain in November.
Cap Goods Orders Non-def Ex Air for December are estimated to rise +1.0% versus a -1.2% decline in November.
Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 370K versus 352K the prior week.
Continuing Claims are estimated at 3500K versus 3432K prior.

10:00 am EST

Leading Indicators for December are estimated to rise +.7% versus a +.5% gain in November.
New Home Sales for December are estimated to rise to 321K versus 315K in November.

Upcoming Splits

None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index for January, 7Y T-Note Auction, weekly EIA natural gas inventory data, (MOH) Investor Day and the weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Euro Bounce, Dovish Fed Commentary, Earnings Optimism, Short-Covering

2012-01-25T16:02:00.002-05:00

Broad Market Tone:

Advance/Decline Line: Higher
Sector Performance: Mixed
Volume: Below Average
Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

VIX 18.35 +2.96%
ISE Sentiment Index 123.0 +108.47%
Total Put/Call .75 -27.88%
NYSE Arms .99 -7.06%

Credit Investor Angst:

North American Investment Grade CDS Index 104.21 unch.
European Financial Sector CDS Index 196.87 +1.48%
Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 337.50 +.43%
Emerging Market CDS Index 276.86 -1.97%
2-Year Swap Spread 33.0 -2 bps
TED Spread 52.0 -1 bp
3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -74.0 +2 basis points

Economic Gauges:

3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% -1 bp
Yield Curve 182.0 unch.
China Import Iron Ore Spot $139.80/Metric Tonne unch.
Citi US Economic Surprise Index 69.90 -.7 point
10-Year TIPS Spread 2.11 +4 bps

Overseas Futures:

Nikkei Futures: Indicating -9 open in Japan
DAX Futures: Indicating +34 open in Germany

Portfolio:

Higher: On gains in my Technology, Biotech and Medical sector longs
Disclosed Trades: Covered all of my (IWM), (QQQ) hedges, then added some back
Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is bullish, as the S&P 500 trades near session highs, building on recent gains, despite rising eurozone debt angst, rising energy prices, uninspiring Fed commentary and profit-taking. On the positive side, Coal, Ag, Medical, Biotech, Construction, Homebuilding, Gaming, Road & Rail and Airline shares are especially strong, rising more than +1.5%. "Growth" stocks are substantially outperforming "value" shares. Copper is rising +.98%, the UBS-Bloomberg Ag Spot Index is down -.28% and Lumber is gaining +1.74%. Despite today's +.55% gain, oil continues to trade poorly given the recent uptick in saber-rattling from Iran, escalating violence in Nigeria, better US economic data and euro bounce. The Ireland sovereign cds is falling - 3.72% to 634.0 bps. On the negative side, Paper, Internet, HMO, I-Banking, Networking and Defense shares are lower on the day. Gold is soaring +2.75%. The Portugal sovereign cds is up +2.0% to 1,313.33 bps(+25% in 9 days to new record high) and the Italy sovereign cds is rising +1.62% to 440.83 bps . The Italian/German 10Y Yield Spread is rising +2.67% to 428.64 bps. The weekly MBA Purchase Applications Index fell -5.4% this week and is still in the same range as it has been trapped in since May 2010. Lumber has declined -12.3% since its Dec. 29th high and is still near the lower end of its recent range, near a multi-year low, despite the better US economic data, improving sentiment towards homebuilders, stock rally and decline in eurozone debt angst. Moreover, the Baltic Dry Index has plunged over -60.0% from its Oct. 14th high and is now down over -50.0% ytd. The 10Y T-Note Yield is falling -7 bps to 1.99%, which remains a large concern considering the recent stock rally and improvement in US economic data. The Western Europe Sovereign CDS Index is still near its Jan. 9th all-time high. The TED spread is near the highest since May 2009. The 2Y Euro Swap Spread is near the highest since Nov. 2008. The 3M Euribor-OIS spread is near the highest since February 2009. The Libor-OIS spread is still very near the widest since May 2009, which is also noteworthy considering the equity surge off the recent lows. Overall, while improving, European credit gauges are still at stressed levels. China Iron Ore Spot has plunged -22.8% since Sept. 7th of last year. Shanghai Copper Inventories are up over 300.0% ytd to the highest level since March of last year. European shares were about -.50% lower on the day with the Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services Index falling -.16%. European equities continue to price in a pause in the debt crisis and a stabilization in economic growth. While the "debt crisis can" appears to have been kicked again, economic growth is likely to contract further in the region over the coming months as more austerity measures take hold. Investors are cheering the Fed's dovish commentary today as they continue to exude weakness in the face of a meaningful improvement in US economic data. While weak dollar policies are usually short-term bullish for stocks/commodities, I continue to believe that they are extremely destructive to the long-term health of the US economy/stock market. The S&P 500's technical condition should lead to further gains after a brief pause. For a sustainable equity advance from current levels, I would still expect to see further European credit gauge improvement, subsiding hard-landing fears in key emerging markets, a rising 10-year yield, better volume, stable-to-lower energy prices and higher-quality stock market leadership. One of my longs, (AAPL), is surging +6.2% to an all-time high after blow-out earnings and an unusual guidance raise. The shares are very extended short-term. However, I still expect significant market outperformance in the stock over the intermediate-term. As I said when it was initially released, the iPad is Apple’s Trojan horse into the enterprise. I still think the analyst community underestimates the implications of this massive opportunity over the longer-term. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on a bounce in the euro, earnings optimism, dovish Fed commentary and short-covering.

Today's Headlines

2012-01-25T15:04:00.003-05:00

Bloomberg:

Germany Backs ECB's Opposition to Taking Loss on Greek Debt. A senior member of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government rejected suggestions that the European Central Bank take losses on its Greek debt holdings, backing the ECB in a dispute with the International Monetary Fund. “I can’t imagine that European politicians would allow third parties to make such an indecent claim on our central bank,” Michael Meister, the deputy floor leader for Merkel’s Christian Democrats and the party’s ranking finance spokesman, said today in an interview. “That contradicts our philosophy.” While the ECB faces pressure to join private-sector investors in accepting losses on Greek debt, the central bank sees any participation as risking damaging confidence in the institution, two people familiar with the Governing Council’s stance said. The debt was acquired for monetary policy purposes and the ECB is firmly opposed to any restructuring, they said on condition of anonymity because the matter is confidential. Christine Lagarde, a former French finance minister who is the IMF’s managing director, told reporters in Paris today that European governments and other public holders of Greek debt may have to increase support if private creditors don’t go far enough. Talks on a Greek debt swap that must be resolved to free up more aid for the debt-wracked nation have yet to be concluded. “The risk is that by putting the ECB on board, as the IMF asks, this could result in debt-swap negotiations restarting from scratch, which could mean additional delay to an already over-stretched timetable,” said Thomas Costerg, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank in London.
Spanish Cleanup Plan May Backfire on Banking System: Euro Credit. Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's proposal to force banks to recognize further losses from real estate holdings may backfire by saddling healthy lenders with the bill. "The plan is for a massive effort in provisioning of real estate and consolidation, and that has to be paid for," said Daragh Quinn, a Madrid-based analyst at Nomura International. By refusing to use public funds to help purge a system burdened with 176 billion euros ($228 billion) of what the Bank of Spain calls "troubled" assets linked to real estate, Rajoy may not do the job properly or he may hurt solvent banks by leaving them with the costs, said David Moss, director of European equities at F&C Investments in London.
Sovereign, Corporate Bond Risk Rises in Europe, Debt Swaps Show. The cost of insuring against default on European sovereign and corporate debt rose, according to traders of credit-default swaps. The Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe Index of swaps on 15 governments rose two basis points to 331 at 11 a.m. in London. Contracts on the Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of 50 companies with mostly high-yield credit ratings climbed seven basis points to 643, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. The Markit iTraxx Europe Index of 125 companies with investment-grade ratings rose 1.5 basis points to 151.25 basis points. The Markit iTraxx Financial Index linked to senior debt of 25 banks and insurers increased 8.5 basis points to 234 and the subordinated index rose nine to 414.
Nebraska's Governor Plans to Urge Obama to Proceed With Keystone. Nebraska Governor Dave Heineman said he will urge President Barack Obama to reverse his decision denying a permit for TransCanada Corp.’s Keystone XL pipeline and let construction begin in segments in U.S. border states.
Thousands of Egyptians Rally to Mark Anniversary of Uprising. Tens of thousands of Egyptians poured into the capital’s Tahrir Square, many to protest against the ruling generals, others to celebrate the anniversary of the start of the uprising that ended Hosni Mubarak’s rule. “I took part in the revolution a year ago and had high hopes that change would be swift,” said Ahmed al-Keelani, a 41- year-old hotel worker who came with his wife and two daughters to Tahrir Square. “Instead, we got stuck in a drawn-out plan that kept the military council in power.”
Crude Oil Increases After Fed Says Interest Rate Will Stay Low Until 2014. Oil rose as Federal Reserve officials said the U.S. benchmark interest rate will stay low until at least 2014 and the Energy Department reported that U.S. fuel demand increased last week. Futures advanced above $100 a barrel after the Federal Open Market Committee extended its previous pledge to keep rates low at least until the middle of 2013.
Gold Futures Jump Most in Three Weeks on Fed's Interest-Rate Announcement. Gold climbed the most in three weeks after the Federal Reserve said it sees “exceptionally low” interest rates through at least late 2014. Silver, platinum and palladium also advanced. “The Committee expects to maintain a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy,” the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement in Washington today. “Economic conditions - - including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run -- are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014.” “We saw an immediate reaction in gold,” said Michael A. Gayed, the chief investment strategist who helps oversee $150 million at New York-based Pension Partners LLC in a telephone interview. “People are betting that at some point the economy will face inflationary pressures because of the low interest rate.” Gold futures for February delivery climbed 2 percent to $1,700.80 an ounce at 1:18 p.m. on the Comex in New York. Earlier, prices had dropped as much as 0.9 percent.
Contracts to Purchase Existing U.S. Homes Hold Near 19-Month High: Economy. The number of Americans signing contracts to buy previously owned homes in December held near a 19-month high, showing the stabilization in the market that began in late 2011 will extend into the new year. The index of pending home sales decreased 3.5 percent last month after jumping a combined 18 percent in October and November, figures from the National Association of Realtors showed today in Washington. It was the best back-to-back reading since a buyer tax credit boosted demand in early 2010.

Wall Street Journal:

CNBC.com:

Hedge Funds Scramble to Unload Greek Debt.
Fed Sees Slower Growth But Offers No Hint Of More Easing. The Federal Reserve, ending a two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, repeated its view that the economy faces "significant downside risks'' but it offered little to suggest it was close to launching another round of bond-buying to prop up growth.
GE(GE) Now Part of Dogs of the Dow. The Dogs of the Dow – those high-yielding stocks that are supposed to represent the bottom of the blue-chip barrel – have some unlikely company. General Electric once stood as the bellwether of American industry but now sits among the 10 Dow stocks that produce the highest yield and, theoretically at least, represent the most risk for investors.
Printing Money to Lead to 'Uglier' End-Game: Rogoff. The euro zone is nowhere near finding a solution to the debt crisis plaguing it and needs deep restructuring as well as a new constitution as part of an effective long-term remedy as printing money will not solve its problems, Kenneth Rogoff, Professor at Harvard University told CNBC on Wednesday.

Business Insider:

Zero Hedge:

Cult of Mac:

Foxconn Employee Says 4-Inch iPhone 5 Will Be Released This Summer.

forexlive:

Portugal CDS Hits New Record Amid Ongoing Greek Tensions. The cost to insure Portuguese debt against default climbed to another new record on Wednesday as worries over Greece’s delayed debt restructuring continued to increase market pressure on Lisbon. Portugal’s 5-year credit default swaps rose above the 1300-level for the first time, climbing 31 basis points to 1,310. That level is about the same where Greek CDS were quoted last spring. In the bond market, yields on 10-year Portuguese government debt climbed by 43 basis points to 14.62%. Investors worry that Portugal could be next in line for a second bailout and that the haircuts in Greece now being forced on private creditors by official lenders could be repeated for Portuguese debt. “Just the way we are now talking about private sector involvement in a second bailout for Greece, the fear is we could soon be talking about the same thing for Portugal,” said Chris Scicluna, an economist at Daiwa Capital Markets in London.

Gallup:

Obama Job Approval: 43% Approve, 49% Disapprove. (graph)

Reuters:

German EconMin Plans Death of Solar Industry - Bosch. A plan to cap solar panel installation at 1,000 megawatts (MW) annually proposed by Germany's economy minister would spell the end for the domestic solar energy industry, German manufacturer Bosch said late on Tuesday. "Should we do that, then photovoltaic is dead in Germany," Bosch Chief Executive Franz Fehrenbach told reporters in Stuttgart. New solar installations reached a record 7.5 gigawatts (GW) in Germany in 2011, playing into the hands of advocates for steeper cuts in tariff subsidies and forcing industry execs to support some form of reduction in state aid that they hope will only be mild.

Telegraph:

Unemployment to Soar as UK Heads Back into Recession. Unemployment is set to soar again as businesses start cutting jobs alongside public sector retrenchment as the country heads back into recession.
Debt Crisis: Live.

Borsen:

Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said at a conference in Copenhagen that Europe could be harming a recovery by betting on consolidating public finances to resolve its economic crisis. "You're risking making the serious situation worse if fiscal consolidation is the primary focus to solve the crisis," Summers said. The current policy response will only lead to a "collective stagnation," he said.

Bear Radar

2012-01-25T14:13:00.000-05:00

Style Underperformer:

Large-Cap Value (-.10%)

Sector Underperformers:

1) Networking -1.50% 2) Internet -.75% 3) I-Banks -.35%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

GLW, WLP, HES, APKT, SAPE, NVS, GOOG, ABT, E, MRCY, BVSN, LCRY, WRLD, TWIN, MOLX, SLAB, UMBF, TRMK, MFLX, SKYW, QCOR, SEIC, SLGN, PJC, RKT, BKI, PX, GWW, ONB, WPZ, UGI, HES, ATI, MSI, RES and FIO

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

1) ILMN 2) S 3) PSS 4) FXY 5) CTXS

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

1) BHI 2) NVDA 3) RBCN 4) MRCY 5) BK

Charts:

Bull Radar

2012-01-25T11:30:00.001-05:00

Style Outperformer:

Large-Cap Growth +.59%

Sector Outperformers:

1) Airlines +2.70% 2) Biotech +1.59% 3) Medical Equipment +1.09%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

ILMN, NUVA, AAPL, GPRO, STJ, EFII, TTM, CA, LIFE, ALKS, CPHD, DNDN, QGEN, TXT, LGF, TPX, TSS, BMS, DAL, SWFT, PVTB, MCP, CLR, UAL, SYK, TEX and ALKS

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

1) ILMN 2) NVS 3) CA 4) WNR 5) ZNGA

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

1) AAPL 2) MDR 3) DGX 4) PX 5) SBUX

Charts:

Wednesday Watch

2012-01-25T00:52:00.002-05:00

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

Merkel Becomes Master of Markets With Euro Austerity Mollifying Investors. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has declared a truce in her campaign to master financial markets. Merkel, who began the euro crisis seeing politicians and investors locked in a battle for supremacy, is now using markets’ judgments to support her calls for austerity to rescue the single currency. At the same time, she backed off from her demand that bondholders contribute to bailouts. The shift underscores Merkel’s journey from scientist to dominant crisis manager amid unprecedented economic and financial turmoil that has thrust her to the fore of Europe’s policy response. Delivering the opening speech today at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, she’ll be addressing critics who say her conversion may be too late to stop woes from splintering the 17-nation euro.
Spanish Cleanup Plan May Backfire on Banking System: Euro Credit. Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's proposal to force banks to recognize further losses from real estate holdings may backfire by saddling healthy lenders with the bill. "The plan is for a massive effort in provisioning of real estate and consolidation, and that has to be paid for," said Daragh Quinn, a Madrid-based analyst at Nomura International. By refusing to use public funds to help purge a system burdened with $228 billion of what the Bank of Spain calls "troubled" assets linked to real estate, Rajoy may not do the job properly or he may hurt solvent banks by leaving them with teh costs, said David Moss, director of European equities at F&C Investments in London.
Greek Economy on Track to Implode, Hanke of Johns Hopkins Says. Whether or not Greece is able to reach an agreement on the restructuring of its debt, the country is set to "implode" as the economy contracts, according to Johns Hopkins University's Steve Hanke. "The game is completely over," Hanke, professor of applied economics, said at the Bloomberg Sovereign Debt Crisis Conference in New York hosted by Bloomberg Link. "All the calculations are nonsense and have been since day one. Since the crisis began the money supply has been shrinking and the economy is going to implode, no matter what they do in the short run." Money supply is shrinking at an annual rate of about 16 percent in Greece, meaning there won't be growth needed to support debt payments, Hanke said. Greece is pursuing talks on a debt swap with private creditors that would lower Greece's debt to 120 percent of gross domestic product by 2020. European governments have sought to fill a deeper-than-expected gap in Greece's finances by having investors accept a lower interest rate on exchanged bonds. The International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for global growth today and warned that the European debt crisis threatens to derail the world economy. The fund, in an update of its World Economic Outlook report, lowered its estimate for global growth this year to 3.3 percent from a September forecast of 4 percent.
Obama Claiming Credit for Energy Gains Angers Industry. President Barack Obama is taking credit for higher U.S. oil and gas production and lower imports, angering industry groups and Republicans who say he is working against domestic energy production. Republicans say the numbers are misleading. Onshore oil and gas production on federal lands directly under Obama’s control is down 40 percent compared to 10 years ago, according to Spencer Pederson, a spokesman for Representative Doc Hastings, a Washington Republican and chairman of the House Natural Resources Committee. In 2010, the U.S. signed the fewest number of offshore drilling leases since 1984.
Japan Exports Fall for Third Month as Global Demand Slows. Japan’s exports fell for the third consecutive month in December, capping the first annual trade deficit in 31 years, figures underscoring the toll slower global growth and March’s earthquake have taken on the economy. Shipments dropped 8 percent in December from a year earlier, the Ministry of Finance said today in Tokyo. In addition to the export slump, higher energy needs in the aftermath of the the nuclear accident in Fukushima increased energy imports, resulting in an annual deficit of 2.49 trillion yen ($32 billion), the report showed. A yen near postwar highs against the dollar is cutting into profits of exporters from Nippon Steel Corp. to Toyota Corp. by making Japanese products more expensive abroad, hampering the nation’s rebound from March’s temblor. The first annual trade deficit since 1980 shows how exports are weakening, robbing the economy of what has traditionally been its main driver of growth. “The decline in exports is directly related to slow GDP growth in Japan,” Masayuki Kichikawa, chief economist at Merrill Lynch Japan Securities Co., said in Tokyo before the report. “The European crisis is reflected in weak demand from China, which directly affects the triangular trade relationship between Asia, Japan, and Europe.”
Common Chemicals in Products May Harm Kids' Immune Systems. Chemicals used in consumer products, including rain gear, stain-resistant carpeting, microwave popcorn bags and fast-food packaging, appear to limit children’s disease-fighting immune responses, a study found. The research by Danish investigators, is one of the first to examine the effects of perfluorinated compounds, or PFCs, on the immune system. It showed that children with the highest levels in their blood had the weakest responses to childhood vaccines. Higher chemical exposure also led to less infection- fighting antibodies to keep disease at bay, the study reported.

Wall Street Journal:

Obama Makes Populist Pitch. President Barack Obama offered Americans a sharply populist economic vision in his State of the Union address Tuesday, seeking to draw a contrast with his eventual Republican rival and demonstrating the widening policy gulf between the two political parties.
The State of His Policies. Obama has done nearly everything he wanted. That's the problem.
Fortress(FIG) Chief Daniel Mudd Resigns Amid SEC Suit. Fortress Investment Group LLC said Chief Executive Daniel Mudd resigned from the hedge-fund company and its board Tuesday, little more than a month after regulators sued him over alleged civil securities fraud. Mr. Mudd had taken a leave of absence from Fortress in December, days after the Securities and Exchange Commission named him as a defendant in connection with his role as CEO of government-backed mortgage company Fannie Mae.

Fox News:

Debt Ceiling to Rise by Week's End. By week's end, the nation's debt ceiling will be increased by $1.2 trillion to $16.4 trillion, as the Senate is expected to vote down a symbolic resolution objecting to the hike. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., with little fanfare, set up a Thursday NOON vote on the House-passed measure, which expresses opposition to raising the U.S. government's borrowing limit.

MarketWatch:

Yahoo(YHOO) Earnings Drop 5% as Sales Wane. Yahoo Inc. on Tuesday reported a fiscal fourth-quarter profit that fell by 5% from the year-ago period, with sales also down for the Internet company that is in the middle of an ongoing turnaround effort.

Business Insider:

Zero Hedge:

Sorry Folks, Europe Is Not Fine... Not Even Close.

CNBC:

A Loophole Poses Risks to Investors in Chinese Companies.

IBD:

SXC Health(SXCI) Benefits From Turmoil In PBM Industry.

NY Times:

In Europe, a Conflict Over Bank Capital. Europe’s banks and regulators are at odds about how financial institutions should increase their capital reserves.

McClatchy:

Warren Buffett, Champion of Bank Bailout, Is Also Leading Beneficiary. (April 5, 2009) Billionaire investor Warren Buffett has been lauded for his plainspoken denunciation of the greed and foolishness behind the economic crisis. He's pushed the massive federal bailout of imploding banks as the essential response to an "economic Pearl Harbor." A Sacramento Bee examination of regulatory records has found that his extensive holdings in financial firms have made Buffett, the world's second-wealthiest person behind Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates, one of the top beneficiaries of the banking bailout. Just 28 companies received more than 90 percent of the funds so far disbursed to financial firms by the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program. Buffett's company, Berkshire Hathaway, hasn't received any of that federal aid, but Berkshire, based in Omaha, Neb., owns stock valued at more than $13 billion in the top recipients of TARP funds, including Goldman Sachs Group, US Bancorp, American Express and Bank of America, which analysts all thought were in deep trouble before TARP was approved in October. That total, The Bee found, ranks Berkshire fifth among all investors in TARP-assisted companies. Berkshire's TARP holdings constitute 30 percent of its publicly disclosed stock portfolio, and that proportion reflects at least twice as much dependence on bailed-out banks as any other large investor. Berkshire, for instance, is the largest shareholder in San Francisco-based Wells Fargo, which got $25 billion — 91 percent of the TARP funds invested in institutions headquartered in California. Buffett increased his bank holdings in September, while he was arguing in the media that Congress should approve the bailout to prevent the collapse of the global financial system.

Read more here: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2009/04/05/65496/buffett-champion-of-bailout-is.html#storylink=cpy

Read more here: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2009/04/05/65496/buffett-champion-of-bailout-is.html#storylink=cpy

The Hill:

Obama Speech Steers Clear of Keystone Pipeline Rejection, Solyndra Failure. President Obama made no mention in his State of the Union address Tuesday of his decision to reject the Keystone XL oil sands pipeline or the federal loan guarantee to failed solar firm Solyndra.

Gallup:

Egyptians Shifted to Islamist Parties as Elections Neared.

Reuters:

Roche offering to buy Illumina(ILMN) for about $5.7 bln. Swiss drugmaker Roche Holding AG said it is offering about $5.7 billion in cash to buy U.S. gene sequencing device maker Illumina Inc, in what could potentially become a hostile takeover bid. Roche said it would offer to acquire all shares of Illumina for $44.50 per share in cash, an 18 percent premium to Illumina's Tuesday close price of $37.68 on the Nasdaq.
Altera(ALTR), sees weak wireless market, shares slip. Altera Corp forecast weak first-quarter revenue on soft demand in its biggest markets, underscoring concerns about a shaky rebound in the semiconductor industry. The programmable chipmaker said it sees first-quarter revenue declining 5 percent to 9 percent sequentially on weakness in its wireless and military segments.
CA(CA) ups FY outlook, boosts dividend; shares jump. Business software maker CA Inc posted quarterly results above Wall Street estimates on stronger subscription revenue, raised its full-year outlook and boosted its annual dividend, sending its shares up 18 percent in extended trading.
EU to clamp down on derivatives trading. The European Union came a step closer to overhauling regulations for the $700 trillion derivatives market on Tuesday, one of the most opaque sectors in finance.

Financial Times:

US Treasury Failed to Cap Rewards at Bailed-Out Groups. The US Treasury Department failed to rein in excessive compensation for executives at bailed-out companies including AIG, despite a White House pledge to cap pay-outs, a federal audit has determined. Since President Barack Obama promised in February 2009 to cap salaries at $500,000 and limit additional compensation to "stock that can’t be paid up until taxpayers are paid back for their assistance", the Treasury has approved pay packages of $5m or more for 49 executives, according to the Special Inspector General for the Troubled asset relief programme.
ECB Under Pressure Over Greek Bond Hit. The International Monetary Fund has turned up pressure on European officials to take on more of the burden of filling a widening gap in Greece’s budget by pressing the European Central Bank to take a hit on its €40bn in Greek bond holdings, eurozone officials said.

Telegraph:

Hedge Fund and Private Equity Pay Targeted by FSA. The Financial Services Authority has launched a consultation on regulations for hedge funds and private equity firms that will form the basis for tough new rules on pay.
George Soros Predicts Class War and Riots. George Soros, the billionaire investor, has predicted riots on the streets and global class war as the economic downturn results in a new "age of fallibility".
Davos 2012: Confidence Among Europe's Business Leaders Crumbles. Confidence among European chief executives has crumbled, with just one in four now expecting to see revenue growth in 2012.

Stuttgarter Zeitung:

German Economy Minister Philipp Roesler opposes combining Europe's two rescue funds, saying the existing instruments are sufficient, citing an interview. "Rescue packages that get bigger and bigger aren't the correct means of stemming the crisis," Roesler said.

Globe and Mail:

Global Regulator Proposes Standards To Allow Bank Comparisons. Investors and regulators faced a near impossible challenge during the financial crisis trying to compare the health of banks in one country to their counterparts in another – a problem global regulators are now attempting to fix. The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, which is responsible for drawing up new rules that will affect the world’s largest financial institutions, is proposing a set of standards that would create a universal method for reporting capital levels at banks around the globe.

Evening Recommendations
Citigroup Global Markets:

Reiterated Buy on (ALB), raised target to $74.
Reiterated (BUY) on (SHOO), target $45.

Night Trading

Asian equity indices are -.50% to +1.0% on average.
Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 191.0 +2.0 basis points.
Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 149.75 +.75 basis point.
FTSE-100 futures +.43%.
S&P 500 futures +.31%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +1.03%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

(UTX)/1.46
(PJC)/.18
(GLW)/.32
(PX)/1.37
(ABT)/1.44
(ROK)/1.21
(ADP)/.68
(WLP)/1.11
(BA)/1.00
(STJ)/.84
(COP)/1.80
(CVD)/.73
(NFLX)/.54
(CTXS)/.76
(SWK)/1.29
(JEC)/.70
(OI)/.46
(SYMC)/.41
(CCI)/.17
(SNDK)/1.26
(GD)/1.99
(LCC)/.03
(MUR)/1.41
(LRCX)/.30
(HES)/1.26
(DELL)/.38
(MSTR)/.92

Economic Releases
10:00 am EST

The Home Price Index for November is estimated unch. versus a -.2% decline in October.
Pending Home Sales for December are estimated to fall -1.0% versus a +7.3% gain in November.

10:30 am EST

Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of +1,450,000 barrels versus a -3,438,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -125,000 barrels versus a +438,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by 2,000,000 barrels versus a +3,717,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.6% versus a -1.9% decline the prior week.

12:30 am EST

The FOMC is expected to leave the benchmark fed funds rate at .25%.

Upcoming Splits

(COG) 2-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers

The Germany 30Y Bond Auction, 5Y T-Note Auction, World Economic Forum Meeting and the weekly MBA mortgage applications report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Profit-Taking, Some Earnings Jitters, Rising Eurozone Debt Angst and More Shorting

2012-01-24T16:08:00.002-05:00

Broad Market Tone:

Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
Sector Performance: Mixed
Volume: Below Average
Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

VIX 19.25 +3.11%
ISE Sentiment Index 65.0 -36.27%
Total Put/Call 1.09 +4.81%
NYSE Arms 1.11 +5.16%

Credit Investor Angst:

North American Investment Grade CDS Index 104.21 -.54%
European Financial Sector CDS Index 193.99 +1.22%
Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 336.02 +.16%
Emerging Market CDS Index 283.13 +1.64%
2-Year Swap Spread 35.0 +1 bp
TED Spread 53.0 +1 bp
3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -76.0 +4 basis points

Economic Gauges:

3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% -1 bp
Yield Curve 182.0 unch.
China Import Iron Ore Spot $139.80/Metric Tonne unch.
Citi US Economic Surprise Index 69.90 -.7 point
10-Year TIPS Spread 2.07 +1 bp

Overseas Futures:

Nikkei Futures: Indicating +25 open in Japan
DAX Futures: Indicating -1 open in Germany

Portfolio:

Higher: On gains in my Retail, Technology, Biotech and Medical sector longs
Disclosed Trades: Covered all of my (IWM), (QQQ) hedges, then added some back
Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is mildly bullish, as the S&P 500 trades near session highs, just down slightly on the day, despite rising eurozone debt angst, profit-taking and some earnings disappointments. On the positive side, Computer, Disk Drive, Networking, Hospital, Homebuilding and Education shares are especially strong, rising more than +1.0%. Tech shares are outperforming substantially. Small-Caps are also relatively strong. Oil is falling -.83%, gold is down -.72% and copper is rising +.39%. Oil continues to trade poorly given the recent uptick in saber-rattling from Iran, escalating violence in Nigeria, better US economic data and euro bounce. Johnson Redbook weekly retail sales rose +2.9% this week, which is about the long-term average, but the slowest pace since the week of April 5th of last year. The France sovereign cds is down -2.69% to 170.83 bps and the Italy sovereign cds is down -2.75% to 432.50 bps. On the negative side, Coal, Telecom, Restaurant and Road & Rail shares are under pressure, falling more than -1.0%. The UBS-Bloomberg Ag Spot Index is gaining +.79% and Lumber continues to trade very poorly, falling another -2.4%. The Portugal sovereign cds is up +1.5% to 1,287.33 bps(new record high) and the Brazil sovereign cds is jumping +2.7% to 151.83 bps today. Lumber has declined -11.1% since Dec. 28th and is at the lower end of its recent range, near a multi-year low, despite the better US economic data, improving sentiment towards homebuilders, stock rally and decline in eurozone debt angst. Moreover, the Baltic Dry Index has plunged -61.3% from its Oct. 14th high and is now down -51.6% ytd. The 10Y T-Note Yield is still subdued considering the recent stock rally and improvement in US economic data. The Western Europe Sovereign CDS Index is still near its Jan. 9th all-time high. The TED spread is near the highest since May 2009. The 2Y Euro Swap Spread is near the highest since Nov. 2008. The 3M Euribor-OIS spread is near the highest since February 2009. The Libor-OIS spread is still very near the widest since May 2009, which is also noteworthy considering the equity surge off the recent lows. Overall, while improving, European credit gauges are still at stressed levels. China Iron Ore Spot has plunged -22.8% since Sept. 7th of last year. Shanghai Copper Inventories are up over 300.0% ytd to the highest level since March of last year. Major European stock indices fell about -.5%, which isn't bad considering the Greece worries and recent gains. The Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services Index fell -1.0%. European equities continue to price in a pause in the debt crisis and a stabilization in economic growth. While the "debt crisis can" appears to have been kicked again, economic growth is likely to contract further in the region over the coming months as more austerity measures take hold. The S&P 500's technical condition should lead to further gains after a brief pause. For a sustainable equity advance from current levels, I would still expect to see further European credit gauge improvement, subsiding hard-landing fears in key emerging markets, a rising 10-year yield, better volume, stable-to-lower energy prices and higher-quality stock market leadership. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close on tech sector optimism, lower energy prices, a bounce in the euro off the lows and short-covering.

Bull Radar

2012-01-24T10:47:00.001-05:00

Style Outperformer:

Mid-Cap Growth +.09%

Sector Outperformers:

1) Disk Drives +1.93% 2) Computer Hardware +1.36% 3) Hospitals +1.19%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

WDC, EMC, DGX, VLTR, BVSN, PLCM, ACHN, CLNE, DMND, IDIX, JAH, WAT, PSS, SPW and ASH

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

1) TEF 2) COH 3) IDCC 4) XRX 5) COV

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

1) VMW 2) CP 3) WDC 4) MCD 5) KLAC

Charts:

Tuesday Watch

2012-01-24T00:34:00.003-05:00

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

EU Calls for More Bondholder Concessions as Greece Seen Going ‘Off Track’. European finance ministers balked at putting up more public money for Greece, calling on bondholders to provide greater debt relief in order to point the way out of the two-year-old debt crisis. Euro governments stood by an October offer of 130 billion euros ($170 billion) for a second Greek aid package. Officials want to fill a deeper-than-expected hole in the nation’s finances by saddling investors with a lower interest rate on exchanged bonds. Brinkmanship over Greece clouded progress toward new fiscal rules and a beefed-up rescue fund, denting newfound confidence in the anti-crisis strategy and threatening to overshadow next week’s summit of European leaders. “It’s obvious that the Greek program is off track,” Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker told reporters early today after chairing a meeting of European finance ministers in Brussels. He called on creditors to drop demands that new bonds carry coupons averaging 4 percent. The stalemate is reminiscent of October’s bargaining over bond losses and risks disrupting the Jan. 30 summit. An accord with bondholders is key to a second financing package for the cash-strapped country, which faces a 14.5 billion-euro bond payment on March 20.
Societe Generale, Credit Agricole Cut by S&P in Wake of France's Downgrade. Societe Generale SA (GLE) and Credit Agricole SA (ACA) were among French banks to have their credit grades cut by Standard & Poor’s after France was stripped of its top rating earlier this month. Societe Generale, France’s second-largest lender, and No. 3 Credit Agricole had their ratings downgraded to A from A+, with a stable outlook, S&P said yesterday in statements. Caisse des Depots et Consignations also was cut to AA+ from AAA. European nations are grappling with a debt crisis now in its third year as they seek to restore budget order. France’s AAA rating was reduced to AA+ on Jan. 13 amid downgrades that left Germany the sole nation in the euro area with a stable AAA rating. The ratings for Societe Generale and Credit Agricole incorporate one level of government support rather than two levels that a AAA-rated sovereign would provide, S&P said. “The downgrade of some of these banks follows the downgrade of France,” S&P wrote in a statement.
Euro Retreats From Three-Week High as EU Officials Discuss Greek Debt Swap. The euro slid from an almost three week high after European finance ministers called on Greek bondholders to provide greater relief in a debt-swap agreement to help end the region’s sovereign crisis. Losses in the 17-nation currency were limited before reports forecast to show a slower contraction in European services and manufacturing output. Demand for the dollar may be curtailed before the Federal Reserve begins a two-day policy meeting today, after which it will provide forecasts for its benchmark interest rate for the first time. The yen was little changed after the Bank of Japan cut its economic growth forecast for next year as it held its key rate near zero. “It’s unlikely we’ll see continued buying of the euro,” said Kumiko Gervaise, an analyst in Tokyo at Gaitame.com Research Institute Ltd., a unit of Japan’s largest online currency margin-trading company. It’s no guarantee that Greece can return to markets for funding “even with the debt-swap deal.”
Chemicals Used During Medical Imaging Tests May Damage Thyroid. Chemicals used to enhance pictures obtained from medical imaging tests may lead to overactive or underactive thyroid glands, a study showed. Patients injected with contrast material were about twice as likely as those who didn't get the chemical to develop hyperthyroidism, when the gland produces too much thyroid hormone and can cause rapid or irregular heart rates, according to a study today in the Archives of Internal Medicine. Results also showed an increased risk for hypothyroidism.
Crude Trades Below $100 as U.S. Inventory Outlook Counters Iran Embargo. Oil fluctuated below $100 a barrel in New York as speculation U.S. stockpiles gained last week countered concern Iran will respond to an European embargo on its crude exports by shutting the Strait of Hormuz.
NYSE-Deutsche Boerse Said to Lack Support to Overturn EU’s Takeover Veto. NYSE Euronext (NRX) and Deutsche Boerse (DB1) AG are unlikely to garner enough support from European Union commissioners to overturn a looming veto over their plan to create the world’s largest exchange, according to four people familiar with the situation. The EU’s antitrust chief, Joaquin Almunia, won’t face significant opposition from other EU commissioners to his proposal to block the deal at a Feb. 1 meeting, said the people who can’t be identified because the discussions aren’t public.
Japan May Miss Debt Goal Despite Tax Hikes. Japan will probably miss its goal of balancing the budget by fiscal 2020 even if it doubles the nation’s sales tax, government estimates show, underscoring the difficulty of containing the world’s largest public debt. Japan will have a primary deficit of 3.1 percent of gross domestic product in the year, the Cabinet Office said in a release in Tokyo today. The projections are based on the assumption the world’s third-largest economy grows about 1 percent annually. The government had wanted a primary balance, achieved when revenue matches spending after the exclusion of debt-servicing costs, by the year ending March 2021.
VMware(VMW) Profit Tops Estimates as Clients Add Server Software. VMware Inc. (VMW), the biggest maker of software that lets computers run multiple operating systems, reported sales and profit that topped estimates as corporations bought more programs to make servers more efficient.

Wall Street Journal:

Romney on the Attack. Mitt Romney sought to regain traction in the Republican presidential race by linking his surging rival, Newt Gingrich, to Florida's ongoing housing crisis and trying to paint the former House speaker as too "erratic" for the party to gamble on as its 2012 nominee.
Obama Speech May Set Natural-Gas Production Goal. President Barack Obama will use his State of the Union speech Tuesday to call for an increase in domestic energy production and may set a production target for natural gas, according to people familiar with the White House's plans. Mr. Obama is expected to tout the economic and energy security benefits of increased U.S. oil and gas production, a message that's unlikely to sit well with some of the president's environmental supporters but could blunt industry and Republican criticism of his policies.
Australia's Swan Says Forecasts Assume Europe Recession. Australia's Treasurer Wayne Swan said Tuesday the country's mid-year economic forecasts factor in a recession in Europe and a substantial slowdown in global growth.
Fears Mount That Portugal Will Need a Second Bailout. Investors, economists and politicians are increasingly concerned that Portugal will need a second bailout as fears mount that it won't be able to return to markets for financing next year. While the Portuguese government's finances are covered this year as long as it abides by its bailout agreement, Portugal must regain full access to capital markets next year to help repay €9 billion ($11.64 billion) in debt coming due in September 2013.
At BofA(BAC), Moynihan Grapples With Past. Bank of America Corp. CEO Brian Moynihan is being dragged back to the past once again. The 52-year-old chief executive is expected to be deposed in coming months in as many as three civil lawsuits over the bank's handling of its takeover of securities firm Merrill Lynch & Co. on Jan. 1, 2009.

MarketWatch:

Japan's Central Bank Cuts Economic Forecast. The Bank of Japan Tuesday cut its economic growth forecasts through fiscal 2012, while keeping its interest-rate target unchanged. After predicting last October that gross domestic product would grow 0.2% to 0.4% in the current fiscal year ending in March, the central bank said Tuesday that the period would instead show a contraction of between 0.3% and 0.4%.

Business Insider:

Gasparino: Here's The Real Reason Why Morgan Stanley(MS) Capped Its Bonuses.
Pretty Much Everyone In Italy Is About To Go On Strike.
6 TOP ECONOMISTS ANSWER: Is The Euro Crisis Over? And If Not, What's Next?
11 Stunning Revelations From Larry Summers' Secret Economics Memo To Barack Obama. A lengthy piece in The New Yorker looks at policymaking in the Obama White House. A key source for writer Ryan Lizza is a 57-page, “Sensitive & Confidential” memo written by economist Larry Summers — eventually to be head of Obama’s National Economic Council — to Obama in December 2008. Here’s some what I learned about Team Obama’s thinking as the financial crisis was exploding, followed by quotes from the memo:

Zero Hedge:

Goldman(GS) Previews The Fed's Statement, Plays Down Expectations Of A "Dovish Surprise".

CNBC:

More Tech CEOs on Hot Seat After Ousters at RIM(RIMM), Yahoo(YHOO).
Regulator: Fannie, Freddie Writedowns To Cost Taxpayers Billions. The regulator for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac told lawmakers that forcing the two mortgage firms to write down loan principal would require more than $100 billion in fresh taxpayer funds. In a letter sent Friday to the Republican and Democratic leaders of a U.S. House of Representatives government oversight panel, the Federal Housing Finance Agency explained why it has long opposed principal reductions for borrowers who owe more than their homes are worth. It said it had determined that such reductions would be more costly for the two firms than allowing those troubled borrowers to default. The regulator has been under pressure from Democrats to permit the write-down of principal by the two government-controlled mortgage finance providers as a way to help some of the millions of U.S. homeowners who are "underwater."
Texas Instruments Earnings Beat; Outlook Falls Short.

NY Times:

InterDigital(IDCC) Calls Off Patent Sale. The decision by InterDigital followed months of talks with several prospective buyers, following a surge of interest by tech companies in buying up patents. But InterDigital was unable to fetch an offer for the entire portfolio of 20,000 patents, one of these people said.
Europe Weighs Tough Law on Online Privacy. Europe is considering a sweeping new law that would force Internet companies like Amazon.com and Facebook to obtain explicit consent from consumers about the use of their personal data, delete that data forever at the consumer’s request and face fines for failing to comply.

Reuters:

World Needs 600 Million New Jobs In Next Decade - ILO. The International Labour Organization sounded the alarm on the global jobs situation in its annual report on Monday and called for more coordination of fiscal policies, repair and regulation of the financial sector and support for the real economy. "What has changed with respect to last year is that our forecast has become much more pessimistic," said Ekkehard Ernst, one of the report's authors. "We had expected a gradual stagnation or coming down of unemployment numbers. That's not something we foresee this year any more. Even in our baseline the unemployment numbers are increasing. With a possibility of a serious deterioration of global growth these numbers actually increase very much." Even under fairly benign conditions such as a quick resolution of the euro debt crisis, the ILO expects global unemployment to be stuck at about 6 percent until at least 2016.
Germany Denies Its Ready To Up Euro Zone Rescue Volume. Germany denied a report on Monday that it was ready to boost the combined firepower of the euro zone's rescue funds to 750 billion euros ($978 billion). "It is not true. There is no such decision," German Chancellor Angela Merkel's spokesman Steffen Seibert told Reuters, referring to a Financial Times newspaper report earlier that Germany would accept an increase of the rescue schemes in return for its euro zone peers accepting tough budget rules in a new fiscal compact.
Obama taps Deutsche economist to head EIA. President Barack Obama has nominated Deutsche Bank energy economist Adam Sieminski to head the Energy Department's independent statistics arm, the White House said on Monday.
Western Digital(WDC) Beats On Fast Recovery From Thai Floods. Hard drive maker Western Digital Corp posted better-than-expected quarterly results and forecast a strong current quarter, signaling a faster-than-anticipated return to production capacity at key facilities damaged by the Thailand floods last year.
Iraq Targets 2012 500,000 bpd Oil Output Increase. Iraq is targeting an increase in oil production and exports of 500,000 barrels per day for 2012 and even more of a gain in 2013, its top oil official said on Monday, signalling substantial growth under its ambitious expansion plan.

Yomiuri:

Elpida is in talks with Micron Technology(MU) and Nanya for a three-way merger.

Japan Times:

Cabinet Kept Alarming Nuke Report Secret. Fearful of scaring public, existence of document was denied for months.

Evening Recommendations
Wells Fargo:

Rated (BLL) Outperform.

William Blair:

Rated (FIO) Outperform.

Night Trading

Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.
Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 189.0 -3.25 basis points.
Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 149.0 - 4.0 basis points.
FTSE-100 futures -.20%.
S&P 500 futures -.34%.
NASDAQ 100 futures -.27%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

(HOG)/.22
(KEY)/.20
(BHI)/1.32
(AKS)/-.39
(DGX)/1.06
(BTU)/1.31
(IGT)/.22
(TRV)/1.52
(APD)/1.36
(DD)/.33
(WAT)/1.50
(COH)/1.15
(EMC)/.46
(VZ)/.52
(KMB)/1.30
(EAT)/.45
(JNJ)/1.09
(MCD)/1.30
(SYK)/1.02
(ALTR)/.42
(CA)/.54
(STLD)/.11
(YHOO)/.24
(AAPL)/10.12
(NSC)/1.40
(AMD)/.16
(ETH)/.28

Economic Releases

None of note

Upcoming Splits

(COG) 2-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers

The Spain debt auction, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for January, BoJ Rate Decision, 2-Year Treasury Note Auction, ECB's Mersch speaking, weekly retail sales reports, (WPI) Investor Meeting and the (BBG) Investor Event could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Less Eurozone Debt Angst, More Financial Sector Optimism, Short-Covering

2012-01-23T16:11:00.001-05:00

Broad Market Tone:

Advance/Decline Line: Lower
Sector Performance: Mixed
Volume: Below Average
Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

VIX 18.84 +3.01%
ISE Sentiment Index 97.0 +2.11%
Total Put/Call 1.10 +39.24%
NYSE Arms .95 -12.54%

Credit Investor Angst:

North American Investment Grade CDS Index 104.79 -3.44%
European Financial Sector CDS Index 192.06 -2.40%
Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 335.18 -3.53%
Emerging Market CDS Index 278.96 -1.44%
2-Year Swap Spread 34.0 -1 bp
TED Spread 52.0 +1 bp
3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -80.0 -4 basis points

Economic Gauges:

3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% unch.
Yield Curve 182.0 +4 bps
China Import Iron Ore Spot $139.80/Metric Tonne unch.
Citi US Economic Surprise Index 70.60 -1.0 point
10-Year TIPS Spread 2.06 +4 bps

Overseas Futures:

Nikkei Futures: Indicating +35 open in Japan
DAX Futures: Indicating -3 open in Germany

Portfolio:

Slightly Higher: On gains in my Retail and Medical sector longs
Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM), (QQQ) hedges, then covered some of them
Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is mildly bearish, as the S&P 500 hugs the flatline despite a bounce in the euro, falling eurozone debt angst, more financial sector optimism and overseas stock strength. On the positive side, Coal, Energy, Computer Service and Gaming shares are especially strong, rising more than +.75%. Financial shares are outperforming again. Copper is rising +1.43%. Oil's bounce is unimpressive given the uptick in saber-rattling from Iran, escalating violence in Nigeria and euro bounce. Major European indices rose around +.75% today, led by a +1.6% gain in Italian shares. The Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services Index rose +2.44%. European equities continue to price in a pause in the debt crisis and a stabilization in economic growth. While the debt crisis can appears to have been kicked again, economic growth is likely to contract further in the region over the coming months as more austerity measures take hold.The Germany sovereign cds is falling -3.5% to 91.33 bps, the France sovereign cds is down -3.81% to 175.33 bps, the Spain sovereign cds is falling -3.66% to 362.50 bps, the Italy sovereign cds is falling -4.35% to 445.0 bps and the Brazil sovereign cds is down -3.38% to 147.83 bps. The Italian/German 10Y Yield Spread is falling -4.24% to 413.51 bps, which is an improvement, but still at stressed levels. On the negative side, Restaurant, Homebuilding, Internet, Paper, Alt Energy and Road & Rail shares are under pressure, falling more than -.75%. Gold is rising +.65%, Oil is gaining +1.6%, the UBS-Bloomberg Ag Spot Index is gaining +1.22% and Lumber is flat after recent sharp losses. Lumber has declined -11.0% since Dec. 29th and is at the lower end of its recent range, near a multi-year low, despite the better US economic data, improving sentiment towards homebuilders, stock rally and decline in eurozone debt angst. The 10Y T-Note Yield is still subdued considering the recent stock rally and improvement in US economic data. The Western Europe Sovereign CDS Index is still near its Jan. 9th all-time high. The TED spread is near the highest since May 2009. The 2Y Euro Swap Spread is near the highest since Nov. 2008. The 3M Euribor-OIS spread is near the highest since February 2009. The Libor-OIS spread is still very near the widest since May 2009, which is also noteworthy considering the equity surge off the recent lows. Overall, while improving, European credit gauges are still at stressed levels. China Iron Ore Spot has plunged -22.8% since Sept. 7th of last year. Shanghai Copper Inventories are up over 300.0% ytd to the highest level since March of last year. Gold continues to trade well as it breaks back above its 50-day moving average and is close to a test of its intermediate-term downtrend line. At the end of last year, I said gold was near a tradable low and it is up +7.4% ytd. I took some profits today in my (GLD) long. The S&P 500's technical condition should lead to further gains after a brief pause. For a sustainable equity advance from current levels, I would still expect to see further European credit gauge improvement, subsiding hard-landing fears in key emerging markets, a rising 10-year yield, better volume, stable-to-lower energy prices and higher-quality stock market leadership. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close on declining Eurozone debt angst, more financial sector optimism and short-covering.

Today's Headlines

2012-01-23T15:07:00.003-05:00

Bloomberg:

Germany Proposes Combining Rescue Funds. Germany floated the idea of combining Europe’s two rescue funds, in a concession to bolster the fight against the fiscal crisis as Greece bargained with bondholders over debt relief. Germany may be open to boosting the combined aid limit from 500 billion euros ($651 billion) when a permanent fund runs alongside the temporary fund starting in July, government officials in Berlin said. The need for a beefed-up fund was dramatized by haggling between Greece, the trigger of the two- year-old crisis, and its creditors over debt reduction to stave off default. “It’s essential that we will be able to reinforce our financial firewalls,” European Union Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn told reporters before a meeting of finance ministers in Brussels today. Finance chiefs will tackle the rescue funds, Greece’s latest offer to bondholders, a German-inspired deficit-control treaty and nominees to the European Central Bank’s board in meetings that started at 2:30 p.m. and will run until late evening.
Spain Risks Deficit Spiral as Election Postpones Budget Cuts: Euro Credit. Spain’s month-old government may postpone deeper budget cuts until after a regional election in March, adding to the risk the nation misses its deficit goal for the second year. The ruling People’s Party, led by Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, will contest an election in the southern region of Andalusia to end 30 years of Socialist rule. Spain’s 10-year bond yields have risen 10 basis points to 5.5 percent since the PP government took over on Dec. 21, increasing the rate to 359 basis points more than German bunds of similar maturity. “Rajoy doesn’t want to get burnt before the Andalusian election,” Antonio Barroso, an analyst at Eurasia and a former Spanish government pollster, said in a telephone interview. “They’re so crucial for the PP that it won’t take any kind of measure that would undermine its ratings in the region.” Rajoy needs to slice the equivalent of 3.6 percent of gross domestic product off the budget deficit this year to meet a European Union target, just as the economy may be entering its second recession in two years. Postponing steps until after the March 25 election risks undermining confidence in Spain’s ability to meet its goal, which Fitch Ratings already has “doubts” the country will reach. “Rajoy has yet to explain how he will reduce the deficit when the economy is shrinking,” said Georg Grodzki, global head of credit research at London-based Legal & General Investment Management, which oversees about $515 billion. “I don’t think Spain can afford to wait for more than two months at the most.”
Corporate, Sovereign Bond Risk Fall in Europe, Debt Swaps Show. The cost of insuring against default on European corporate and sovereign debt fell, according to traders of credit-default swaps. Contracts on the Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of 50 companies with mostly high-yield credit ratings fell 17.5 basis points to 630, the lowest since Oct. 28, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. at 3 p.m. in London. The Markit iTraxx Europe Index of 125 companies with investment-grade ratings decreased 6.5 basis points to 147.5 basis points. The Markit iTraxx Financial Index linked to senior debt of 25 banks and insurers dropped 10 basis points to 219.5 and the subordinated index fell 17 to 403. The Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe Index of swaps on 15 governments decreased six basis points to 331.
Oil Rises for First Time in Four Days After EU Agrees to Ban Iranian Oil. Oil rose for the first time in four days after the European Union agreed to ban crude imports from Iran, raising concern that retaliation from the Islamic Republic may disrupt oil supply from the Middle East. Futures gained as much as 1.6 percent as the 27-nation bloc said it would implement the crude embargo starting July 1 to pressure the country over its nuclear program. Oil for March delivery gained $1.51, or 1.5 percent, to $99.84 a barrel at 1:10 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices have increased 12 percent in the past year.

Wall Street Journal:

Lagarde Says Europe Mut Boost Firewall. The global economy faces a depression-era collapse in demand if Europe doesn't quickly act to dramatically boost the size of its debt-crisis firewall, implement pro-growth policies and further integrate the euro zone, the head of the International Monetary Fund warned Monday. "It is about avoiding a 1930s moment, in which inaction, insularity, and rigid ideology combine to cause a collapse in global demand," IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said in prepared remarks before the German Council of Foreign Affairs in Berlin. "A moment, ultimately, leading to a downward spiral that could engulf the entire world," she said.

Dow Jones:

Greece shouldn't expect an increase in planned bailout loans even though the economy is worsening, citing people familiar with the matter. Any shortfalls have to be covered by more austerity or bigger losses by creditors. The IMF "has a similar stance," citing the source.

CNBC.com:

More Lockouts as Companies Battle Unions.

Business Insider:

Zero Hedge:

Reuters:

Exclusive: YouTube Hits 4 Billion Daily Video Views. YouTube, Google Inc's(GOOG) video website, is streaming 4 billion online videos every day, a 25 percent increase in the past eight months, according to the company. The jump in video views comes as Google pushes YouTube beyond the personal computer, with versions of the site that work on smartphones and televisions, and as the company steps up efforts to offer more professional-grade content on the site. According to the company, roughly 60 hours of video is now uploaded to YouTube every minute, compared with the 48 hours of video uploaded per minute in May.
U.S. Oil Production to Surge. A boom in shale oil production will raise U.S. domestic crude output by a fifth over the next decade, helping to slash the country's dependence on foreign oil imports, the Energy Information Administration said on Monday. Growing shale production as well as Gulf of Mexico development will push U.S. crude oil production to 6.7 million barrels per day in 2020, up 20 percent and 11 percent higher than the previous forecast, the EIA said in its annual domestic energy outlook. That would mark the highest level of U.S. oil output since 1994, thanks to advances in drilling techniques that have opened the door to tapping the nation's vast shale reserves. Shale oil production makes up 21 percent of output in the lower 48 states in 2010. By 2035, such production will account for 31 percent of that output.
Uptick Rule Could Curb Quant Fund Risk - Man Group CEO. The head of Man Group (EMG.L), the world's biggest listed hedge fund manager, is backing the reintroduction of the so-called 'uptick rule' to reduce the risk of a market crash prompted by lightning-fast computer traders. Peter Clarke told a conference on Monday that the U.S. rule, which only allowed short-selling -- bets on a share price falling -- if the last sale price of a stock was higher than the previous price, could help stop some rapid-fire computer hedge funds fuelling market falls.

The Economist:

Salve Italia. If Germany’s Angela Merkel wants to save the euro, she must do more for Italy’s Mario Monti. SADLY, the lull proved but brief. The first two weeks of the year were surprisingly calm for the storm-tossed euro zone. But a gale is blowing again. First a series of downgrades from Standard & Poor’s, a leading debt-rating agency, coincided with a stand-off in the “voluntary” restructuring talks between Greece and its private bondholders. Now there are signs of a continent-wide recession. The euro crisis is back. Indeed, the next few weeks could be decisive for the single currency’s future. Several euro-zone governments must sell huge amounts of debt in bond auctions. They are also due to wrap up negotiations over the new “fiscal compact”, demanded by Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany to enforce budget discipline, at a European Union summit at the end of January. And the brinkmanship in Greece’s debt talks could yet lead to a disorderly default.

Financial Times:

Hedgies in Flux. The latest annual SEI/Greenwich Associates survey of investors’ perceptions of hedge funds is out. You find full details in the usual place, but here are the bullet points from the exec summary:

Telegraph:

Debt Crisis: Live.

Bild Zeitung:

Inspectors from the European Union, the European Central Bank and the IMF were "shaken" by the state of Greece's administration.

Bear Radar

2012-01-23T14:08:00.000-05:00

Style Underperformer:

Small-Cap Growth (-.33%)

Sector Underperformers:

1) Road & Rail -1.4% 2) Restaurants -1.0% 3) Internet -.90%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

AMAG, PNRA, PG, SBUX, MMR, CATY, TWIN, MLNX, PAAS, SGMS, EEFT, RIMM, NUAN, CRDN, MFLX, OSIS, SBUX, JOBS, ALTR, CNQR, CPHD, NATR, RBN, FSC and BAS

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

1) XRX 2) XHB 3) MMR 4) WHR 5) SUN

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

1) MMR 2) AMGN 3) STI 4) TXN 5) SIRI

Charts:

Bull Radar

2012-01-23T11:14:00.000-05:00

Style Outperformer:

Mid-Cap Growth +.17%

Sector Outperformers:

1) Coal +2.09% 2) Oil Tankers +1.99% 3) Gold & Silver +.99%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

PETS, BVSN, SHLD, INCY, CRZO, ARMH, NRG, TDG, CHK, COG, SWN, GDP, EQT, RRC, CNX, STMP, ACI and UPL

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

1) ALXA 2) RDN 3) FE 4) K 5) ZNGA

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

1) SWN 2) CPLA 3) WAT 4) AAPL 5) DTV

Charts: