BETWEEN THE HEDGES

Mid-Day Market Internals

2026-06-09T13:03:31.040-04:00

NYSE Composite Index:

Volume Running +13.9% Above 100-Day Average
Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.3 +.5
6 Sectors Rising, 5 Sectors Declining
46.8% of Issues Advancing, 51.0% Declining
TRIN/Arms 1.09 -10.7%
Non-Block Money Flow +$92.8M
120 New 52-Week Highs, 85 New Lows
52.3% (+1.5%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
Average 14-Day RSI 50.7 -3.9

Polymarket:

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 7.0% unch.
Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by June 30th 38.0% +3.0 percentage points
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30th 20.0% +3.0 percentage points
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30th 45.0% +1.0 percentage point
US Invades Iran before 2027 19.0% +2.0 percentage points

Other:

Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 117.5 -2.6%
Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 72.0 +5.0
Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 83.0% -2.0 percentage points
US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 440.75 +5.75 basis points
Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 253.9 -2.3%
Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 152.4 -3.4%
CNN Fear & Greed Index 29.0 (FEAR) -14.0
1-Day Vix 25.0 +56.1%
Vix 23.2 +22.4%
Total Put/Call .99 +7.6%

Tuesday Watch

2026-06-08T23:04:24.607-04:00

Around X:

@Business

Trump very much seems to want the war in Iran to end, but increasingly, it looks like we may live with a low-grade version of the conflict for months to come.
Japan is currently undergoing the greatest budgetary reform process since the end of World War II, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama says.
SpaceX CEO Elon Musk unveiled a more detailed look at an initial version of an AI data center satellite that the company plans to build, providing more insight into the project driving SpaceX’s highly anticipated IPO.
Bank of America Securities sees trouble ahead for the stock market.
Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
Here’s what you need to know to start your day.

@ZeroHedge

BREAKING: A magnitude 5.0 earthquake struck Sargaz in Iran’s southern Hormozgan province at a depth of 22km, according to Iranian state media, reports Reuters.
Chinese Article Warns VPN Use Alone Can Trigger Punishment Under Expanding Censorship Regime.
How A Tiny Insect Decimated Florida's Citrus, And What Orchardists Are Doing About It.
BREAKING: Iranian leadership loses contact with Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei.
How safe is the bounce?
Several people have asked me to share some of the back and forth on that very bizarre chat with Gemini on SpaceX's amended filing. I won't share the whole thing, but here's where things started to go off the rails. (1/3).
"Replacing Lower Value Human Capital": Banks Cut Staff As Recent Grads Face Off Against AI For Jobs.
Xi Jinping Applauds Kim's 'Socialist Cause' In Warm North Korea State Visit.
House Report Finds Minnesota Officials Ignored Fraud To Avoid Racism Accusations.
*OPENAI SUBMITTED CONFIDENTIAL S-1 TO SEC FOR IPO.
Campbell's CEO Serves Up Warning For Restaurants As "Resilient" At-Home Cooking Trend Gains Steam.
Sam Bankman-Fried 'Absolutely' Wants A Presidential Pardon.
USDA TO TRIAL IVERMECTIN IN FEED TO CONTROL SCREWWORM IN WILD.
Bitcoin Bid As Stocks 'Dead Cat Bounce', But History Shows Friday's Low Gets Re-Tested.

@CNBC

CNBC Daily Open: Tim Cook's last WWDC, tech IPOs and Middle East tensions.
Tuesday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
Stock futures are little changed after chip rebound lifts S&P 500 to winning day: Live updates.
The Pentagon added a slew of Chinese companies, including Alibaba Group, Baidu Inc and carmaker BYD, to a list of entities it believes have aided the Chinese military, complicating the fragile diplomatic relationship between Washington and Beijing. The Defense Department will be prohibited from contracting directly with listed companies starting later this month. Click here to read more:The Pentagon added a slew of Chinese companies, including Alibaba Group, Baidu Inc and carmaker BYD, to a list of entities it believes have aided the Chinese military, complicating the fragile diplomatic relationship between Washington and Beijing. The Defense Department will be prohibited from contracting directly with listed companies starting later this month. Click here to read more:

Night Trading

Asian equity indices are -.25% to +1.75% on average.
Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 73.5 -.5 basis point.
China Sovereign CDS 40.5 -1.0 basis point.
China Iron Ore Spot 100.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.32%.
Crude Oil 90.62/bbl. -.74%
Gold 4,358.80 USD/t oz. -.11%.
Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.50 -.02%.
Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 34.98 +.03%.
Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 121.0 +.4%.
US 10-Year Yield 4.56% unch.
Japan 30-Year Yield 3.97% +2.0 basis points.
Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.1 +.5%.
Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.33%.
S&P 500 futures +.04%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.07%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Mideast War Resolution Hopes, Bargain-Hunting, Short-Covering, Tech/Energy Sector Strength

2026-06-08T15:33:49.719-04:00

Economic/Market Gauges:

North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.8 -1.2%
BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 70.9 -.1%
Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .28 +2.0 basis points
BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.25 +7.0 basis points
European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.4 +.4%
Emerging Market CDS Index 151.5 -.2%
Israel Sovereign CDS 54.8 -1.3%
Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.2 +.2
US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 88.8 -1.0

Citi US Economic Surprise Index 62.5 -.7

Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -47.2 +1.3

Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 40.2 +.3
S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(496 of 500 reporting) +27.9% -.1 percentage point
S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 363.05 +.80: Growth Rate +23.4% +.2 percentage point, P/E 20.5 -.4
S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.47% unch.
NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +66.6% unch.
NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 898.61 +4.60: Growth Rate +73.3% +.9 percentage point, P/E 19.3 -.8
Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .94 -28.0 basis points
US Yield Curve 39.5 basis points (2s/10s) -3.0 basis points
Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 183.0 +.3%
Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 50.3 euros/megawatt-hour +3.7%
US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 12.6% -.1 percentage point
US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.0% unch.
US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.55% +2.0 basis points
1-Year TIPS Spread 2.68 +3.0 basis points

Highest target rate probability for July 29th FOMC meeting: 85.8% (+.7 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 16th meeting: 57.3%(-3.1 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)

Overseas Futures:

Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +1,720 open in Japan
China A50 Futures: Indicating -165 open in China

DAX Futures: Indicating -10 open in Germany

Portfolio:

Lower: On losses in my biotech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
Disclosed Trades: None
Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

2026-06-08T15:04:33.871-04:00

Style Underperformer:

Mid-Cap Growth +.3%

Sector Underperformers:

1) Utilities -1.7% 2) Electrification -1.4% 3) Insurance -1.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

TEL, ALNY, NEXA, AMLX, BKD, MLYS, VSAT, WAY, SA, TTAN, AMRZ, OCS, CLF, CIEN, DXYZ, GHRS, ANDG, GWRE, SHAZ, APAM, KB, PRAA, JBIO, DRUG, ENSG, TLK, FCEL, AGX, TOYO and BRC

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

1) NFE 2) NNDM 3) IRDM 4) OPTU 5) HLT

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

1) FCEL 2) ENSG 3) CHKP 4) ADCT 5) WIX

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

1) IGV 2) XLP 3) SMH 4) XLV 5) XLE

Charts:

Bull Radar

2026-06-08T14:56:30.622-04:00

Style Outperformer:

Small-Cap Growth +1.1%

Sector Outperformers:

1) Semis +6.4% 2) AI Innovation +5.5% 3) Oil Service +3.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

TNGX, GLXY, ALOY, MRVL, AAOI, INTC, BOT, ZVRA, OCTV, OSCR, AIAI, MU, IDYA, ASST, SYNA, ADEA, PENG, CRDO, NNE, SRAD, CLYM, PI, RMBS, AMBA, FLNC, PRGO, ARCB, STM, ASML, TREX, ADTN, CXW, MRIX, ELF, BELFB, CEVA, CALY, INR, BBCP, AAP, CLB, CDE, GEO, PLAB, EBC, BTDR, INFQ, STRC, MYE, MEC, PLXS, EPAC, SOFI, SATA, LQDA and WSBC

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

1) EQX 2) ABAT 3) GENI 4) IAG 5) GLXY

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

1) TNGX 2) CLIK 3) OCC 4) MPAA 5) INTC

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

1) DRAM 2) IYH 3) XLF 4) AIQ 5) ITA

Charts: