Correlation Economics

M2 Vs. Gold

2026-06-09T23:58:48.008+02:00

A retest to go higher.

Middle East onshore oil inventories dropping

2026-06-09T09:51:31.579+02:00

Middle Eastern onshore oil (million barrels) are getting exported now.

Iranian oil exports are rising (mbpd).

M3 Vs. Gold

2026-06-07T10:24:17.880+02:00

Gold follows M3.

M3 growth projection is 5%-8% per year.

Dedollarization changes the M3 to Gold ratio. So gold should go up due to the combination of dedollarization and M3 growth.

A plausible scenario is the following. Dedollarization and lower M3 to Gold Ratio.

Comparative Inventory Oil

2026-06-04T23:02:51.511+02:00

Comparative inventory deficit is below Ukraine level. Oil might top out.

Stocks Vs. Money Supply

2026-06-01T08:58:36.547+02:00

The money supply is boosting stocks with a lag.

CTA Conditional Flows for Oil, Copper and Gold

2026-05-29T17:01:14.526+02:00

Oil and copper have negative conditional CTA flows, while gold could go higher.

AI prompt for Gemini:

Use the latest data reports from Goldman Sachs and Kpler. Don't use simulated data, use actual data, search for a report on CTA conditional flows online. Act as an institutional macro strategist and quantitative data analyst specializing in systematic fund flows. Provide a comprehensive update on the 1-month CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) conditional flows and programmatic net positioning ($bn) for Gold, Silver, Copper, and Crude Oil (WTI or Brent). For EACH individual asset, you must provide a clean, high-utility ASCII data chart mapping out the "1m Conditional Projections ($bn)" alongside a detailed structural breakdown. Ensure your response for each asset adheres to the following strict 4-part framework: 1. VISUAL CONDITIONAL CHART (ASCII): Generate an ASCII line graph modeled exactly after the Goldman Sachs multi-asset flow grid. - The Y-axis must represent Net Length ($bn). - The X-axis must plot a 3-month historical timeline ("Simulated Realized Flows") leading into the current month, split by a clear vertical divider line (|) into a 1-month forward looking window ("Conditional Expected Flows"). - Clearly draw and label the diverging forward pathways inside the chart using text lines for: [Up Big], [Up Small], [Flat Market], [Down Small], and [Down Big]. 2. Current Positioning Estimate: What is the current estimated aggregate net length (in billions of dollars or maximum position capacity) held by systematic trend-followers? Is positioning historically stretched, flat, or short? 3. 1-Month Forward Conditional Projections: Under the standard 5-scenario matrix, describe the projected net length adjustments over the next 30 days. Highlight where the visual asymmetry lies (e.g., is there a steep "liquidation cliff" on the downside or a "buy-the-breakout" trigger on the upside?). 4. Active Algorithmic Triggers & Stop Levels: Identify the exact technical parameters (e.g., 20-day, 50-day, or 200-day moving averages, or specific price points) that will trigger non-discretionary mechanical buying or selling waves. 5. Volatility Regime & Position Sizing: How is current realized or implied volatility affecting the CTA models' risk-targeting mechanisms? Are expanding or compressing volatility bands forcing automatic position reduction or expansion? Format the output cleanly using bold headers for each asset and include a summary table at the very beginning comparing the 1-month directional flow bias (Upward/Downward/Neutral) across all four complexes. Avoid generic market commentary; focus strictly on technical momentum, programmatic flow execution, and systematic risk thresholds.

Yardeni hikes SP500 target

2026-05-13T10:56:17.648+02:00

New:

Old:

Sprott Inc. Update

2026-05-12T10:35:00.001+02:00

Buys: Mako Mining, Santacruz Silver, tankers, silver miners.

Sells: Dolly Varden, Novagold, Ero Copper, SSR Mining,...

Oil Vs. Inventory

2026-05-11T11:34:06.298+02:00

Oil should be at $75. The market is pricing in $30 in premium.

Grasberg restart delayed

2026-05-08T09:22:00.003+02:00

Grasberg produces 1% of global silver supply.

Gold as percentage of central bank reserves

2026-04-30T10:46:56.779+02:00

This gold bull market is far from over.

Global Money Supply Vs. Gold

2026-04-28T20:45:00.002+02:00

Money supply keeps rising, so will gold.

Oil Upside Targets

2026-04-27T10:55:00.006+02:00

New Goldman oil targets.

SGE Silver Deliveries Rising

2026-04-24T10:01:00.003+02:00

Shanghai SGE silver deliveries are flowing again. Will silver bottom out? Buy Sotkamo or Starcore to get leverage to silver.

Gold during crisis

2026-04-23T11:28:17.789+02:00

Gold should be fine.

China Buying Silver Dip

2026-04-20T13:32:00.002+02:00

China March 2026 silver imports at record high.

Investment attractiveness index - political risk

2026-04-08T07:55:00.002+02:00

Jurisdictional risk.

Oil imports: Americas-Europe-Asia

2026-04-07T19:49:00.003+02:00

The Americas are fine.

$100 Oil Forever

2026-04-04T19:56:00.003+02:00

Energy is a good investment.

Lantern Daily Economic Index Vs. Bond Yields

2026-04-04T19:38:00.003+02:00

The LDEI is leading bond yields.

Silver Supply and Demand - Surplus and Deficit

2026-04-03T12:43:00.001+02:00

Is silver going into a new reality?

https://inflationdata.com/articles/inflation-adjusted-silver-prices/

https://www.fundsindia.com/blog/mf-research/silver-lining-is-it-time-to-add-silver-to-your-portfolio/32139

Oil price increases in various countries

2026-04-02T21:55:00.001+02:00

South Africa is in trouble.

Turkey selling gold

2026-04-02T17:39:00.001+02:00

They can't keep selling forever...

Federal Reserve: To Hike Or Not To Hike

2026-03-31T10:19:00.004+02:00

If Powell doesn't listen to the market, gold will soar.

OPEC Cut and Gold

2026-03-29T19:26:00.001+02:00

The biggest OPEC cut in history should be very bullish gold.