On the Forecheck

Update those bookmarks...

the.forechecker@gmail.com (The Forechecker) — Sun, 05 Oct 2008 02:31:00 +0000

Considering the traffic numbers I'm seeing here lately, it's worth posting a reminder that going forward, On the Forecheck can be found over at a new site, OnTheForecheck.com, as part of the SB Nation community of sports blogs. You'll want to update as follows:

Web address: http://www.ontheforecheck.com

RSS Feed: http://www.ontheforecheck.com/rss

Moving On Up!

the.forechecker@gmail.com (The Forechecker) — Thu, 18 Sep 2008 00:45:00 +0000

Well folks, the big news today is that after 3 years toiling away here on Blogger, I'm moving this blog to greener pastures; starting today I'll be contributing over at Kukla's Korner, under the same byline and focusing on the same issues. Namely the Nashville Predators, statistical analysis of NHL hockey, and the occasional forays into fantasy hockey or the business side of things.

I'm thrilled to be joining Kukla's Krew, along with the other new additions Mike Chen, Bethany, The Puck Stops Here, Red & Black Hockey, Goal Line Report, and SensHobo.

So switch your bookmarks over to the new address (http://www.kuklaskorner.com/index.php/otf/), and for RSS feeds, use (http://feeds.feedburner.com/kuklaskorner/Forecheck). Existing content will remain here for the time being, although there are two series of posts (Forechecker's Forecasts and The Forechecker's Fantasy Hockey System) that I've migrated over to Kukla's Korner so that as I complete them, all the articles are in one place. Those series will pick up tomorrow.

I want to thank all of you who have visited, emailed, or provided comments here over the last 3 years for your encouragement, suggestions, and corrections when I posted something truly boneheaded. I'm really excited for what this upcoming season holds, and like the rest of you, can't wait for the regular season to start!

Your Tuesday Morning Quickies

the.forechecker@gmail.com (The Forechecker) — Tue, 16 Sep 2008 13:06:00 +0000

Big news for On the Forecheck coming tomorrow, but in the meantime...

1. Wheels are turning in Las Vegas to launch the construction of an arena near the Strip that is apparently destined for NHL hockey. James Mirtle breaks down the expansion scenario, as the NHL's Board of Governors prepares to meet in Toronto. Personally, I think this a fascinating possibility. While the locals may not be able to fully support a team there, I could definitely see a brisk business for people visiting there to catch their favorite team. Just ask yourself, would you rather pack up a few pals and follow your team to St. Louis, Edmonton, or Las Vegas?

2. One question I have is how expansion money might affect the Sommet Center lease agreement, which allows local ownership a buyout prior to 2012 if financial losses exceed $20 million. I know that when it comes to "Hockey Related Revenue" that drives the salary cap under the CBA, expansion fees (which may net each team $10-20 million if two teams join the league soon) aren't counted, but I'm not intimately familiar with the lease terms as to whether anything's different there. The reason that's important is that if expansions fees are considered part of the general bottom line (which I would consider likely), that may effectively take that 2012 buyout option off the table. I hate to even bring up lease stuff, but it's a thought that crossed my mind.

3. The Nashville Predators advertising campaign has kicked off, and it's good to see the team aggressively marketing themselves. When I moved to Nashville in the fall of 2005 I was suprised to see how little was being done in that area, other than a few incredibly lame billboards.

4. Puck Update highlights a fascinating occasion; a MSM columnist (Terry Frei) writes a column about Patrick Roy, gets blasted by readers for omitting comment about the infamous junior hockey brawl that Roy and his son were involved in, and then writes a followup that not only admits that he could have handled it better, but offers up a preferred version of his text. MSM "bloggers" aren't usually so interactive with their readers, let alone open to criticism and self-correction. Well done, Mr. Frei.

5. The Predators and "Our Team Nashville" are hosting a Rally at the Sommet Center all day Tuesday, September 23rd. It's a day chock-full of activities, with a radiothon running from 6 a.m. to 9 p.m. on 104.5 "The Zone". Just take a look at the happenings, and stop by at some point:

6-8 a.m.: FREE breakfast sponsored by Dunkin’ Donuts (mmm... donuts...)
10-11 a.m.: Hockey 101 Presentation (duck out of the office and tell your boss it's for an educational seminar)
11:00 a.m.: Nashville Predators Rookie Game
11 a.m. -1 p.m.: $5 Box Lunch Special
11 a.m. -12 p.m.: Nashville Predators Player Appearance (select players will be in attendance)
2:30-3:30 p.m.: Rookie Autograph Signing
4-6 p.m.: GNASH (Greater Nashville Area Scholastic Hockey) Senior Game
5-7:30 p.m.: Nashville Predators Foundation Silent Auction
5:45-6:30 p.m.: Beverley Mahood performing on Plaza
6:30 p.m.: Rally Begins
7:15-9 p.m.: FREE Public Skate (register at the Preds website beginning September 20).

The public skate on the Sommet ice sounds like a great idea. So if you work downtown, make your plans to stick around afterwards and catch some live music, get fired up at the rally, then do your best prat fall on the very ice where the Predators play.

All Toronto needs is an NHL-caliber team

the.forechecker@gmail.com (The Forechecker) — Fri, 12 Sep 2008 14:20:00 +0000

There's some interesting commentary from the Puck Daddy this morning about Toronto, which is fretting over the future of the Maple Leafs fan base. Apparently changing demographics and youth hockey participation trends don't bode well for Toronto's long-term outlook.

As for my $0.02 on the issue, I think the best thing for both the Toronto market and the NHL at large would be to get another team in that city. They could easily support it, and since the Maple Leafs are such a ridiculously tough ticket to get currently, that serves to isolate them somewhat from casual fans. A new, upstart franchise might help to shake things up in that regard. Look at the Mets and Yankees in New York to see how this could work.

If the Big Apple can support multiple hockey teams, Toronto absolutely would. Whether by expansion or by relocation (properly done, not a Balsillie-style hijacking), helping hockey grow even in the Great White North starts with making it accessible to the broadest audience possible. The problem, of course, is getting the Maple Leafs to drop their opposition to having another team within their zone of control; what they need to realize is that growing the game is in their own long-term best interest, as well as the best interest of the league.

Jerred Smithson, the 2008-9 Forechecker's Forecast

the.forechecker@gmail.com (The Forechecker) — Fri, 12 Sep 2008 14:20:00 +0000

Last season Jerred Smithson became an every-night regular at the NHL level, playing 81 games for Nashville after 64 and 66 in the previous two campaigns. His even-strength work on a line with Radek Bonk and Jed Ortmeyer was pretty awful; I've said before that this may have been the worst line in the NHL last year. Where Smithson provides some additional value to Barry Trotz is his penalty killing work and relative success winning faceoffs. As competition increases for 3rd- and 4th-line ice time in Nashville, those are two qualities that might benefit him.

For the upcoming season, I would expect his 5-on-5 duty to be reduced somewhat, with a heavier emphasis on the PK and more of a specialized role as a lead-preservation guy.

So, for the official Forechecker's Forecast...

Forechecker's Forecast, 2008-9 NHL Regular Season
Player	GP	G	A	Pts	Shots	Sht %
Jerred Smithson	70	3	5	8	35	9

The Return of Radulov?

the.forechecker@gmail.com (The Forechecker) — Thu, 11 Sep 2008 16:05:00 +0000

Imagine my surprise to see this headline from Yahoo's Puck Daddy come across my screen: "NHLPA director: Radulov wants to leave KHL, rejoin NHL." This comes from an interview that NHLPA director Paul Kelly gave on Toronto radio.

Here's the money quote, per the Puck Daddy:

"My information is that the player very much wants to return and play in the NHL. I have that on extremely good authority. He's tried the KHL. He's seen what it has to offer for a few games already. He was quite successful last year for the Nashville Predators. I think, long-term, Alexander wants to play in the NHL. I believe there is an outcome which is doable, which will involve some type of an agreement between the NHL, the KHL, the player himself and the Predators."

This is sure to light up a firestorm of emotion from Predators fans, who were quick to rid themselves of the young phenom. Here's a sample from the Preds message board:

"Fine, come on back you POS. Find some other team with another Russian(s) to coddle this nutjob and make the trade Poile. I don't care if we get nothing in return, but under no circumstances let this f'er back on the team. "

This whole saga has been unusual, to be sure, and to have a player Radulov walk out on his team just as he was primed to enter NHL stardom was a cruel blow to a fanbase that has taken more than their fair share of abuse over the last year. So the reaction of many has been completely understandable.

That said, GM David Poile and the rest of the organization need to welcome Radulov back with open arms if he truly wants to return.

First of all, no genuine harm has yet been done; he's got time to report to training camp, so it's not like they've missed him from the lineup and have lost games as a result. Secondly, and most importantly, the Predators are a better team with Radulov in the lineup, and this episode has probably ruined his trade value, anyway. The clear path forward for the franchise is to invest in Radulov and themselves by charting a positive course heading into the new season.

The only parallel I can come up with here in terms of how Radulov might be accepted back to the team comes from the Sergei Fedorov offer sheet drama from 1997-98. After helping the Red Wings to their first Stanley Cup in 42 years, Motown was ecstatic about their team. When Vladimir Konstantinov and Sergei Mnatsakanov were critically injured in the tragic limo accident just days later, the emotional ties deepened as the community and the team rallied around thier stricken comrades. As that drama unfolded over the course of the summer of 1997, Fedorov, a restricted free agent, proved stubborn in negotiations with Detroit, not just over money but over his role on the team. Quite frankly, he wanted to be the #1 guy, and he knew that as long as Steve Yzerman was around, that was never going to happen.

Fedorov and the Wings were at an impasse for several months, and Detroit launched their title defense in the 1997-98 season with Fedorov holding out. It wasn't until midway through the season until Carolina came forth with an offer specifically crafted to screw Detroit (with hefty team-based incentives that Detroit was likely to achieve, but Carolina not). Hockeytown was calling for Fedorov to be shipped out of town as quickly as possible, but the Red Wings management played it cool, matched the offer, and welcomed #91 back into the fold.

As you should well know, they went on to win the Stanley Cup that spring, and added another in 2002 before Fedorov finally left as an unrestricted free agent as the most accomplished Russian in NHL history.

Were there ramifications for Fedorov out of all this? Certainly; there is a large part of the Detroit fan base that reviles him to this day, and things must have been awkward during the early days of his return. But the bottom line is these guys are all professional hockey players, and pretty quickly, getting into the routine of competitive play will reaffirm everyone's working relationships.

If Alexander Radulov truly wants to return to Nashville, the Predators would be wise to do whatever they can to make that happen, and also sit down with the young star to figure out how better to support him going forward. Do they need to bring in a senior Russian, either as a current player or team adviser, to lend him a hand? It surely wouldn't hurt to explore those kinds of options.

The point here is to focus on the days ahead, and how to make them best work out for the Nashville Predators; that would involve having a potential 30-40 goal scorer on one of your top two lines, even if he has spent the last few weeks lighting up the KHL.

Some Wednesday Afternoon Quickies

the.forechecker@gmail.com (The Forechecker) — Wed, 10 Sep 2008 20:05:00 +0000

Three interesting stories came across my screen today, all of which provide a glimpse into how NHL teams are run; since we've still got two more weeks until training camp opens, they're well worth a read:

1. Courtesy of Kukla's Korner, Carolina's News & Observer digs into the NHL's contract insurance policy, and how it impacts the negotiations for big-time players. There's nothing specific to Nashville in here, but I couldn't help but think of Steve Sullivan's situation while reading it.

2. This link's a bit old, but the Bleacher Report featured an interview with Jason Bukala, one of the Predators' amateur scouts.

3. Lastly, the Preds website has an interview with Barry Trotz as he looks ahead to training camp, and extols the virtues of rookies he looks forward to seeing there. Here's the pre-camp spin on one such hopeful:

"He reminds me a lot of a Joe Mullen-type of a player. He’s very effective. He gets open. Off the rush, he shoots the puck well. He goes to the hard areas; he’s got really good timing about getting to the scoring areas at the right time. He just doesn’t plant himself in front of the net. He’s very competitive."

Ryan Suter, the 2008-9 Forechecker's Forecast

the.forechecker@gmail.com (The Forechecker) — Wed, 10 Sep 2008 19:01:00 +0000

One of the questions that Nashville Predators fans worried over earlier this summer was whether the team would be able to retain both Ryan Suter and Shea Weber, the two high-profile restricted free agents due for major pay increases. Now that he's locked up for four more seasons at $3.5 million per, the focus shifts to how much of a step forward Suter will take as he shakes off the young rookie label and fills a key role on the Predators blue line.

Suter enters his 4th NHL season as a potent offensive threat
Photo courtesy of Paul Nicholson

Over the course of three seasons, Suter has steadily progressed into a solid two-way performer, and a key cog on the power play. He became much more aggressive offensively last season, firing 138 shots (compared to 87 the year before), presumably due to an increased opportunity working the point with the man advantage:

**Ryan Suter Even Strength & Power Play Performance**
**TOI = Time On Ice, Pts/60 = Points per 60 Minutes of Play**
Season	GP	EV Pts	PP Pts	EV TOI/G	PP TOI/G	EV Pts/60	PP Pts/60
2005-06	76	14	2	13:39	1:35	0.81	1.00
2006-07	82	13	9	14:20	2:31	0.66	2.62
2007-08	71	20	11	15:01	3:24	1.13	2.73

Basically, Suter's been getting an extra shift per game at even strength each year, and has grown into a pivotal role on the power play. Shorthanded work is pretty consistent (just over 2:00 per game each season), and with guys like Hamhuis, De Vries, and Zanon around, Suter doesn't need to spend much time on the kill anyway.

In terms of offensive production, then, we have two avenues that might offer a boost over the 7 goal, 24 assist performance of last season. The first would be an increase in ice time; many of the top offensive D-men around the NHL get more than 4:30 of PP time per game, and with the departure of Marek Zidlicky via trade, it's possible that some additional time there could go to Suter. Even strength duty could also see a marginal uptick, particularly depending on how Ville Koistinen is used; if Barry Trotz feels the need to spare Koistinen EV duty and leverage him mostly on the power play, that creates additional opportunity for the 23 year-old Suter to soak up extra shifts. Even if both those options are utilized, however, we're looking at perhaps a 10% increase in overall production.

What then, about a significant increase in Suter's scoring rates? Frankly, I think there's little reason to believe that those figures will change much, as we've seen three full seasons of Suter now and have a decent idea of what he brings to the table; sound offensive instincts, an opportunistic eye for jumping up into the play, and a good shot from the point. We also have to remember that it's not like the cast around him is going to be more offensively oriented. My hunch is that with Radulov gone his EV production will tail off a bit, while the PP rate may rise slightly.

When it comes to the defensive side of the game (about time I addressed that, he IS a defenseman, after all), Suter's certainly more than capable; he's been on the positive side of the Plus/Minus stat during all three of his seasons, his penalty minute totals are reasonable, and his steady increase in ice time is a clear sign of support from Barry Trotz, who is hardly shy about holding a young player back if he's causing problems. The toughest matchups are generally reserved for Dan Hamhuis, so Suter is generally placed in a position to succeed. I expect that trend to continue, and for Suter to take another positive step forward in what is becoming a fine, productive NHL career.

So, for the official Forechecker's Forecast...

Forechecker's Forecast, 2008-9 NHL Regular Season
Player	GP	G	A	Pts	Shots	Sht %
Ryan Suter	75	9	27	36	155	6

Sizzle or Steak? Or can we have both?

the.forechecker@gmail.com (The Forechecker) — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 17:52:00 +0000

As we ponder the many ways that the Nashville Predators can fill out their top two forward lines, the usual discussions revolve around veterans on the back end of their career (Mark Parrish, Glen Murray) or rookies who yet to prove themselves at the NHL level (Patric Hornqvist, Ryan Jones). This is, of course, framed by the presumption that Nashville either can't or won't go after a bigger-name player in their prime years, such as Marian Hossa or Olli Jokinen, to cite two stars which changed teams this summer. The common wisdom is that a superstar like that is either outside the Predators budget constraints or that such a deal would violate GM David Poile's patient, long-term franchise building process.

So, when it comes to the NHL, what is best? Gaining a dynamic superstar who can excite a fan base, or a slowly assembling a deeper roster of less dramatic players that forsake individual glory for team achievement?

On the one hand, we have Brandon Felder, who in a recent post, wondered whether the Predators should pursue such a star, after noticing that no Predators were included in the Hockey News' "Top 50 Players" heading into the new season (never mind that Jason Arnott's exclusion was pretty poor). In Nashville, more so than many other NHL markets, marketing to the broader sports fan base is essential, and when the team acquired Peter Forsberg in the spring of 2007, it generated substantial buzz around the city. So yes, such a move might sell a few more tickets.

On the other side of this question we have Ted Leonsis, owner of the Washington Capitals, who provided his insight into this question while blogging today about Tom Brady's injury woes. From his view atop a franchise which actually has a dynamic performer in Alex Ovechkin and is trying to assemble a championship-caliber group around him, he has a firsthand perspective to add. As he discussed his group's research into what makes elite teams work he ticked off several key traits, among which were the following (paraphrased):

1. Having great players who are willing to sublimate individual goals to team-based objectives.
2. Getting players to sign for less-than-market value (especially key in salary cap leagues like the NHL)
3. Having the whole organization fit the playing talent, with a consistent philosophy from the front office on down.
4. Consistency over the course of time with the system of play, instead of switching things around from year to year.
5. Staying healthy.
6. Being lucky.
7. Getting respect from the refs.

Now, when I look at this list, it jumps right out that the Detroit Red Wings fit this pretty darn perfectly. But, not to be denied, however, the Nashville Predators score highly as well:

1. They are blissfully free of "me first" types (especially now with Alexander Radulov back in the Old Country)
2. They've signed their core players to long term contracts for, in many cases, less money than they might have earned elsewhere (particularly J.P. Dumont)
3. There is definitely a consistent theme to the Predators, in terms of favoring mobile young defensemen, and generally emphasizing speed over size.
4. With only one GM and head coach throughout the team's history, the team enjoys a very consistent philosophy in how the game is approached.
5. Health has been an issue, mostly due to Steve Sullivan's severe back troubles. Every team faces injury issues from one year to the next, but in light of the other players lost in the 2007 Salary Purge, Sully's back was an added blow. Only now is the team basically resolved to moving forward on the assumption that he won't return.
6. Luck? It's hard to see luck being on the Preds side recently, but that can always change.
7. It would appear that the Predators are definitely getting respect from the officials; in total last year Nashville got 358 power plays and was shorthanded only 335 times, a difference of 23 special teams chances that was 9th-best in the NHL.

Overall, there's a lot there to like; and I tend to think that playoff success will do more to sell tickets in the short- and long-term than signing a superstar would do. Now, the question is still open as to whether this really is an either-or proposition; but unless a blockbuster trade comes out of nowhere involving some of the key Predators assets, I highly doubt we'll see one of those "Top 50" players in a Nashville uniform this season. Next year, we'll see if Ryan Suter or Shea Weber make the cut, but until then, I'll make do with a well-rounded, workmanlike squad that the hockey world is writing off yet again.

UPDATE: Paul Nicholson tosses his $0.02 into the discussion, and looks at the possibility of a poor 2008-9 season leading to better times ahead.

The Forechecker's Fantasy Hockey System

the.forechecker@gmail.com (The Forechecker) — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 14:48:00 +0000

NHL training camps open later this month, so naturally the hockey poolies are starting to come out again, scooping up fantasy hockey guides at the bookstores and snooping their way around the internet to get the latest information on player transactions, depth charts, and projections for the upcoming NHL season. Last year I had the honor of participating in James Mirtle's Bloggers Invitational, and did quite well in the regular season before pulling up lame in the playoffs. I'm bound and determined to finish the deal this season, and along the way I thought I'd share some of the tools and techniques that have helped me over the years. The nice thing about these methods is that they apply to pretty much any fantasy sport, as they've served me successfully over the course of 15+ seasons of fantasy football as well.

The basic concept that I utilize is to have the most effective draft possible; we all know that Draft Day is by far the biggest single event of a fantasy hockey season, because even if you're able to make savvy trades and waiver pickups later on, the bulk of your fate is tied to the players you start the season with. After all, you can't swing that killer trade if you don't have something decent to offer.

Over the next couple weeks, I'll dig into each of these topics further, but to give you a taste, here are the fundamentals behind the Forechecker's Fantasy Hockey System:

1) Don't Pretend You Have a Crystal Ball: the goal here isn't to prove your genius by picking the next Brad Boyes-style breakout season. Chances are, you'll end up with just another Jussi Jokinen instead, and be left waiting for that guy to prove himself worthy of your backing the next season as well. There are some areas in which you'll want to tweak a cheat sheet to reflect your own projections, but the most common mistake fantasy owners tend to make is overdoing it.

2) Understand Your Fantasy League: It doesn't matter how the big magazines rank the Top 50 players; instead, make sure your draft rankings reflect your league's specific scoring system.

3) Know Your Opponents: Is your league made up of locals who are familiar with the hometown team and division rivals, but maybe not so savvy about teams from the other conference? This could help indicate prior to the draft which players are likely to be overlooked.

4) Run the Numbers: It's not just important to know how players rank, you also need to know where the major dropoffs occur. There might be 5-10 stellar offensive forwards, for example, and then you'll have a substantial gap down to a group of 20-30 guys who are all pretty similar. Knowing where those transitions occur can direct your choice in a particular round to the position where you can make the greatest impact.

5) Have Fun: The late rounds are where there's less and less deviation between players, so that's your chance to take a flyer on your favorite mucker who you think might prosper in new surroundings, or that young, inconsistent phenom who you think is ready for NHL stardom. By choosing these guys in the late rounds, if you get burned the damage is minimal.

6) Youth Will Not Be Served: Rookies, for the most part, aren't ready to produce over the course of an 82-game regular season. Don't depend on them for steady production.

Again, I'll dig into each of these topics in more detail over the coming weeks. Until then, keep working on that oh-so-creative team name that'll keep your opponents chuckling all season long.

Your Monday Morning Video Quickie

the.forechecker@gmail.com (The Forechecker) — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 13:22:00 +0000

Everybody can use a giggle on a Monday morning, so here's a brief clip from last Wednesday's GOAL (Get Out And Learn) session, in which a few dozen kids from ages 4-9 with little to no skating or hockey experience get a basic introduction to the game, courtesy of the Nashville Predators. You can just imagine what happens when they're all lined up along one goal line, and then told to race down to the other end...

Antti Pihlstrom, the 2008-9 Forechecker's Forecast

the.forechecker@gmail.com (The Forechecker) — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 21:03:00 +0000

One of the interesting storylines to follow during training camp later this month will be the progress of Antti Pihlstrom, the Finnish agitator who has an outside shot at landing a roster spot with the Predators. After leading the AHL's Milwaukee Admirals in goal scoring (with 27 in 78 games), is Pihlstrom ready for the big stage in Music City?

Pihlstrom is likely to make his biggest impact as a 3rd- or 4th-line banger, with enough scoring touch to provide an occasional boost to the Nashville attack. At 23 years old, we've probably got a decent picture of how he'll fare at the NHL level. Similar to the preview for Patric Hornqvist, let's use Gabriel Desjardin's League Equivalencies work to make a basic projection. In this case, we have a guy who posted 27 goals and 18 assists in 78 games for Milwaukee, a Points Per Game rate of 0.58. Desjardin's Equivalency value for a 23 year-old transitioning from the AHL to the NHL is 0.41, so multiplying it by Pihlstrom's 0.58 PPG gives us a benchmark of 0.24 PPG for the upcoming season. In other words, we don't appear to have an offensive star in the making here, but that doesn't mean he can't be a serviceable player.

Now, this value assumes that Pihlstrom's role in Nashville is going to be similar to that which he enjoyed in Milwaukee, and I seriously doubt that will be the case. Based on what's been said in the press so far (an admittedly shaky proposition), he'd have to beat out Ryan Jones, Patric Hornqvist, and any potential veteran acquisition to earn a spot on one of the top two lines. Then when you consider the fact that Pihlstrom has one of the few two-way contracts among forwards, I would guess that Antti will spend most of his time down in the AHL, called up occasionally for fill-in duty as injuries crop up, similar to what Rich Peverley did last season.

On the positive side, there may be reason to believe that the Equivalency figure might trend a bit higher, given the likely improvement in AHL play since that study was done, but I suspect the adjustment for that would be pretty minor.

So, for the official Forechecker's Forecast...

Forechecker's Forecast, 2008-9 NHL Regular Season
Player	GP	G	A	Pts	Shots	Sht %
Antti Pihlstrom	20	2	4	6	25	8

Pekka Rinne, the 2008-9 Forechecker's Forecast

the.forechecker@gmail.com (The Forechecker) — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 15:38:00 +0000

Today's projection should be an easy one. Coming into training camp Pekka Rinne has 3 career games of NHL service, so normally one might wonder if there's much history to leverage in terms of predicting future performance. But with the Predators, we have a very clear guideline to follow. Each of the last two seasons have seen Nashville's backup goaltender steal the spotlight with a performance among the very best in the NHL. After all, Chris Mason's 2006-7 season was, by some measures, tops in the league that year, and Dan Ellis led all goaltenders in both regular season and playoff save percentage in 2007-8.

What then, to expect of young Mr. Rinne, who, after salutary duty in Milwaukee the last three years (including an AHL All-Star appearance last season), has been anointed the #2 man in the Predators goal? First, expect a very different profile in net; Rinne stands 6'5", a fair bit taller than Ellis (6'0") or previous #1 Chris Mason (also 6'0"). It will be interesting to see how the team adapts to having him in goal as a changeup from the nimble, puckhandling Ellis; there were times last year when there seemed to be confusion between the defense corps and goaltender when Ellis or Mason would get pulled in the middle of a game. For instance, a defenseman would swoop behind the net to pick up a loose puck only to find Ellis already there playing it ahead, a stark difference from Mason, who would let his blueliners handle it more often.

I would guess that Rinne will get a decent workload, due largely to a couple reasons why Ellis's workload needs to be relieved. This will be his first season as a designated top starter, so right there one wouldn't figure Ellis for a Nabokov-like 77 games. In addition, he faced some issues maintaining his playing weight down the stretch and into the playoffs last spring, so over the course of the long NHL season, it makes sense to manage his playing time somewhat, if only to ensure he's fresh for a playoff run. Rinne might play something like 25-30 games, depending on how Ellis's weight management program goes.

So, for the official Forechecker's Forecast...

Forechecker's Forecast, 2008-9 NHL Regular Season
Player	GP	W	L	GAA	Save Pct.
Pekka Rinne	28	13	12	2.70	.905

Jed Ortmeyer, the 2008-9 Forechecker's Forecast

the.forechecker@gmail.com (The Forechecker) — Wed, 03 Sep 2008 15:25:00 +0000

Happy 30th Birthday wishes go out to Jed Ortmeyer, and in his honor, today's Forechecker's Forecast is devoted to the one-time University of Michigan Wolverine.

Jed signed a two-year deal with Nashville last summer, and the expectation has been that he'd provide basic checking and penalty killing work. He began the 2007-8 season playing the left wing alongside Radek Bonk in the middle and Jerred Smithson on the right side, on what was supposed to be a shutdown line. As it worked out, however, the only thing that got shut down was the Predators offense when those three hit the ice.

Nashville Predators 5-on-5 Advanced Statistics, 2007-8 Regular Season
NAME	POS	GP	TOI/ 60	RATING	QUAL COMP	QUAL TEAM	PTS/ 60	GFON/ 60	GAON/ 60	+-ON/60	GFOFF/ 60	GAOFF/ 60	+-OFF/ 60
JASON ARNOTT	C	79	13.78	1.90	0.05	0.24	2.65	3.86	2.42	1.43	2.13	2.60	-0.47
ALEXANDER RADULOV	RW	81	12.94	0.89	0.01	0.22	2.86	3.61	2.80	0.80	2.23	2.32	-0.09
JEAN-PIERRE DUMONT	RW	80	13.81	0.74	0.03	0.45	2.88	3.53	2.93	0.60	2.20	2.35	-0.15
SCOTT NICHOL	C	73	10.39	0.59	-0.05	-0.21	1.19	2.69	1.98	0.71	2.66	2.54	0.12
BRANDON BOCHENSKI	RW	40	10.25	0.42	-0.06	-0.02	1.46	2.05	1.17	0.88	2.51	2.05	0.46
DAVID LEGWAND	C	65	12.07	0.41	0.01	-0.03	2.29	3.06	2.68	0.38	2.67	2.70	-0.03
MARTIN GELINAS	LW	57	11.64	0.36	0.02	-0.14	1.72	2.44	2.08	0.36	2.70	2.70	0.00
JAN HLAVAC	LW	80	13.24	0.27	0.07	0.02	1.81	2.44	2.66	-0.23	2.48	2.98	-0.50
MARTIN ERAT	RW	76	13.44	0.23	0.07	0.13	2.41	2.88	2.64	0.23	2.47	2.47	0.00
DARCY HORDICHUK	LW	45	5.14	-0.13	-0.19	-0.49	0.78	1.30	1.56	-0.26	2.61	2.75	-0.13
VERNON FIDDLER	C	79	10.67	-0.67	-0.00	-0.04	1.85	2.35	2.71	-0.36	2.71	2.40	0.31
JORDIN TOOTOO	RW	63	9.72	-0.88	-0.07	-0.00	1.76	2.25	3.14	-0.88	2.61	2.61	0.00
JED ORTMEYER	RW	51	9.96	-1.52	0.01	-0.62	0.71	1.30	2.48	-1.18	3.17	2.83	0.34
JERRED SMITHSON	C	81	9.22	-1.68	-0.02	-0.44	0.80	1.04	2.25	-1.20	3.06	2.58	0.48
RADEK BONK	C	79	12.26	-2.24	0.05	-0.22	0.93	1.43	3.04	-1.61	2.97	2.34	0.63

This table, courtesy of Behind the Net, requires a bit of explanation. It isolates the Goals For and Goals Against performance for the Nashville forwards last season, in terms of Goals For and Against per 60 minutes of play while that player is on the ice, and also how the rest of the team performs when that player is on the bench, thus revealing the impact an individual has on the overall result.

The single column that points this out is Rating, which reflects, per 60 minutes of play, the shift in a team's GF/GA differential when a given player is on the ice. Jed's -1.52 showing there is pretty awful; as to whether or not he faced elite offensive opponents, and that had an effect on his results, the Qualcomp shows the quality of opposition he faced. At 0.01, he basically went against middle-of-the-road competition, so that's not an excuse. How about the performance of his linemates? Did that bring him down? An argument can possibly be made there, as Smithson and Bonk are the only two guys with worse 5-on-5 Ratings, and Jed's Qualteam (quality of teammates played with) mark of -0.62 is worst on the squad; that line just made for a horrible combination.

Offensively, when Ortmeyer/Bonk/Smithson went out there, the Goals For/60 Minutes for Nashville plumetted down to the 1.04-1.43 range, down from typical values of 2.5-3.5. Defensively, the Goals Against numbers didn't vary much from what the rest of the team did. In a nutshell they failed to shut down opponents, while contributing minimal offensive pressure at the same time. That's a losing combination, and I doubt we'll see this line brought back together this fall.

Jed's ice time may well be threatened by the prospect of rookies like Ryan Jones and Antti Pihlstrom cracking the Nashville lineup; Patric Hornqvist appears destined for Top Six duty, so that's not a direct threat to Ortmeyer. As to penalty killing, Smithson and Scott Nichol have dibs on the major duty there, along with David Legwand and Vern Fiddler. My guess is that Jed's going to be watching from the press box quite a bit this season, filling in as injuries strike one of the PK guys or when Barry Trotz is feeling too stressed out by rookie defensive gaffes.

So, for the official Forechecker's Forecast...

Forechecker's Forecast, 2008-9 NHL Regular Season
Player	GP	G	A	Pts	Shots	Sht %
Jed Ortmeyer	40	4	6	10	60	7

The Forechecker's Fabulous Hockey Blogroll

the.forechecker@gmail.com (The Forechecker) — Tue, 02 Sep 2008 19:53:00 +0000

In order to tidy things up I've consolidated the blog roll here into its own post, which will be available via a link in the page header throughout the site.

Please note that rather than attempt to provide a comprehensive listing (which you can find in many other places), I'm only listing sites that regularly post material, are part of my Google Reader feed of steady hockey reading, and I feel comfortable endorsing to others. That means there are some well-known sites which you won't find listed here, probably because I'm just not a fan of the writing. I'm no Buzz Bissinger, but I do believe there's a lot of content out there that I just can't endorse with a link.

Yes, there are definitely some areas that could use beefing up (there have to be more good Pacific Division blogs, right?), so feel free to either leave a comment here with suggestions.

Nashville Predators	General NHL
Geek Thoughts	Kukla's Korner
Pred Joe	James Mirtle
Paul McCann	Spector's Hockey
Brandon Felder	Mike Chen
	Legends of Hockey
	American Hockey Fan
	Hockey Rants
	GoonBlog
	Two for Elbowing
Statistical Analysis	The NHL Arena
Hockey Analytics	NHLDigest.com
Hockey Numbers	The Puck Stops Here
BehindTheNet Blog	Hockey's Ladies of Greatness
HockeyAnalysis.com	Barry Melrose Rocks
	Illegal Curve
	Inter Ice Hockey Report
	Red Light District
	Puck Daddy
	NY Times Slap Shot Blog

Central Division	Atlantic Division
Here Come the Hawks
The Third Man In	2 Man Advantage
Bethany's Hockey Rants	Interchangeable Parts
End of the Bench	Islanders Army
Neutral Zone Trap	The Drive for Five
Abel to Yzerman	The View From Section 317
Behind the Jersey	Ranger Pundit
Gloveside	Battle of New York
Gorilla Crouch	Confluence of the 3 Rivers
On The Wings	Going Five Hole
No Pun Intended	The Hockey Fanatic
St. Louis Game Time	Igloo Dreams
	The Sidney Crosby Show
Northwest Division	Northeast Division
mc79hockey	so.very.obsessed
Battle of Alberta	Wicked Bruins Fan
Five Hole Fanatics	BfloBlog.com
Jerseys and Hockey Love	Sabre Rattling
Jibblescribbits	All Habs
Covered in Oil	Eyes on the Prize
Irreverent Oilers Fans	Habs Inside/Out
Wild Puck Banter	Sisu Hockey
Canucks & Beyond	A Theory of Ice
Canucks Hockey Blog	Scarlett Ice
Tom Benjamin	Pension Plan Puppets
	Raking Leafs
	Waiting For Stanley

Pacific Division	Southeast Division
Battle of California	Southeast Shootout
Girl With a Puck	Talking Thrash
Andrew's Dallas Stars Page	Thrashers Talons
One Fan's Perspective	CanesCountry
Sharkspage	CasonBlog
	red and black hockey
	Japers' Rink
	Off Wing Opinion
	On Frozen Blog
	Puckhead's Thoughts
	Ted's Take
	The Peerless Prognosticator

Josh Gratton, the 2008-9 Forechecker's Forecast

the.forechecker@gmail.com (The Forechecker) — Tue, 02 Sep 2008 17:32:00 +0000

Amidst the Radulov drama and the Marek Zidlicky trade, one roster move that's been somewhat overlooked involves the enforcer role, fulfilled the last three seasons in Nashville by fan favorite Darcy Hordichuk. The heir apparent to that job is Josh Gratton, a dedicated knuckle-duster who played all of 1 NHL game last year, and 52 the year before for Phoenix. I'm guessing that this is a fan-created site and nothing that Gratton himself has created (although "Chin of Steel" is certainly a moniker worth promoting).

Coming soon to a fist near you...

Other than finishing 2nd in the league with 188 penalty minutes in the 2006-7 season, Gratton's NHL-level resume is pretty thin. Basically, there's not much there to suggest that Gratton will bring anything to the Predators' on-ice performance that any other goon (err... enforcer) would. As James Mirtle so ably pointed out earlier this summer, guys like that don't play a lot, and don't do much to help their hockey team win when they're on the ice. Basically they're turning into the NHL's form of risk management. You keep a guy like Gratton on the bench until you're concerned that your opponent is taking liberties with your stars; then you send him out to do his duty, since you'd rather have him risk injury than one of your core players.

It seems to me that in the modern NHL that's pretty much a waste of a roster spot, and personally I'd rather see a no-defense puck-dangler get that limited action each night, perhaps as a cameo PP guy and shootout specialist.

So, for the official Forechecker's Forecast...

Forechecker's Forecast, 2008-9 NHL Regular Season
Player	GP	G	A	Pts	Shots	Sht %
Josh Gratton	40	0	2	2	20	0

Pardon The Dust

the.forechecker@gmail.com (The Forechecker) — Mon, 01 Sep 2008 18:46:00 +0000

Lots of template tweaking going on today, so please don't mind some odd formatting you may see from time to time. I'm going to a 2-column layout to increase the amount of space for the articles (and data tables I may include within them).

The blogroll will appear as its own separate article, and a button to get to it will appear in the header. For now, at least, I wanted to save what I had so far. Comments from the Peanut Gallery, are, of course, welcome and appreciated.

Your Labor Day Weekend Quickies

the.forechecker@gmail.com (The Forechecker) — Sat, 30 Aug 2008 12:48:00 +0000

Before you settle in for the first Saturday of college football (gotta get my Michigan flag out), here are a few quickies for you:

I'm interested in loading up my MP3 player with hockey podcasts... so do you have any good recommendations to share? Feel free to drop a comment and let me know which ones I should subscribe to...
Head over to the Legends of Hockey Network, where Joe Pelletier is posting a series of the greatest photographs in hockey history. Yesterday's installment detailed a gruesome injury that nearly ended the career of Gordie Howe before it even got rolling. In my book, Mr. Hockey is the greatest of all-time because not only was he a consistently great scorer, but he was also a dominating physical presence night-in, night-out. He epitomized the game.
Anyone in the adult C-leagues (upper or lower) down at Centennial Sportsplex need a player? I'd like to head back downtown after spending last year at Southern Ice, but I've been told the teams are all signed up.
The Predators are currently conducting their Get Out And Learn (GOAL) program, a free opportunity for kids to get an introduction to hockey. I've got all three of the Little Forecheckers signed up, and the picture below will take you to a gallery of some pics I took last Wednesday. I highly recommend it for anyone who wants to give their kids a taste of the game, without having to shell out big bucks for equipment first. They're going to have another session with signups in September, so set a reminder for yourself to check it out.

From 2008 GOAL

Patric Hornqvist, the 2008-9 Forechecker's Forecast

the.forechecker@gmail.com (The Forechecker) — Fri, 29 Aug 2008 15:23:00 +0000

This series of Forechecker's Forecasts heads into truly uncharted waters today as we consider the prospects for Patric Hornqvist, the Swedish winger who appears to be the organization's next-best option for goal-scoring depth after the departure of Alexander Radulov. Since he's labored over in the Swedish Elite League for the last few years, North American fans have precious little evidence to evaluate; the single most-noteworthy fact known about him is that he tied Peter Forsberg's record for goal-scoring by a junior player (with 23) for Djurgarden in 2006-7. He has also represented Sweden well during the World Championships both in 2007 and 2008, and his 6 goals this year led the team.

Nashville fans are hoping for plenty of this...

The big unknown, here, however, is how does Hornqvist's production in the SEL translate into what we can expect of him in the NHL? Besides the obvious difference in talent level and the international-size ice surface, there's also the matter of travel to consider. You can drive across Sweden from east to west in just a few hours, which is a cakewalk compared to NHL road trips, and he's played a maximum of 53 games in a season, a far cry from the 82-game grind (plus playoffs) he'll face in Nashville.

One way to answer this question is to consider the notion League Equivalencies, explored in a paper published by the brilliant Gabriel Desjardins over at Hockey Analytics in 2004. The basic idea that Gabe leveraged was that Points Per Game is a relatively stable stat for most players over the course of their careers, and by comparing PPG figures for all players that were in the NHL one season, but another league the year before, you can estimate the relative strength of the two leagues. For example, Ville Koistinen played in Milwaukee during the 2006-7 season, putting up 9 goals and 32 assists in 59 games for the Admirals, a PPG rate of 0.69. Desjardin's League Equivalency figure for a 25 year-old transitioning from the AHL to the NHL was 0.36, which would predict a PPG figure of 0.25 (0.69 * 0.36) for Koistinen's NHL work in 2007-8. His actual result was 0.35 (4 goals and 13 assists in 48 games). That's in the ballpark, and I'd guess part of the difference (besides individual performance) is that the AHL has probably improved after the IHL folded in 2001.

Extending this analysis to Hornqvist, then, we'd look at his performance last season in Sweden(23 goals, 11 assists in 53 games, PPG 0.64), run it through Desjardin's index of 0.59 for a transition from the SEL to the NHL (0.64 x 0.59 = 0.38 PPG in the NHL), and project that rate of production across how many games we'd expect Hornqvist to play for Nashville next year (let's go with 75), which yields an overall value of 29 points. So let's use that as our jumping-off point.

One factor that could skew this analysis would be a dramatic shift in a player's role; for example, if Joe Prospect was the offensive hot-shot at a lower level, but had to fight for 3rd-line duty in the NHL, obviously his opportunity for scoring will be diminished. I doubt that will be a large factor here, as David Poile has consistently said that the Predators expect Hornqvist to make the roster this season and be a major offensive performer. Another is age; at 21, Hornqvist is still developing, so his PPG should not yet be peaking. Also, this SEL-to-NHL League Equivalence figure dates from 2004 (before the "New NHL"); has the Swedish league improved since then relative to the NHL? Nicklas Backstrom and Tobias Enstrom saw their PPG performance translate to the NHL last year at roughly a 90% rate, although since these are the two Swedes that immediately jump to mind for having recently made that transition, I'm admittedly pointing out two very successful comparables. Digging a little further finds Johan Franzen, who translated at 61% for his rookie season in Detroit, and Niklas Nordgren, who pretty much dropped off the charts.

Looking ahead to then to 2008-9, I can see the Predators doing what they can to help Hornqvist prosper; placing him on either the Arnott or Legwand lines, giving him a decent amount (say, 2:00 per game) of power play time, but not overburdening him. I'm guessing at something like 12:00-14:00 in total ice time per night, and roughly 1.5 shots per game from the young Swede. If he can emulate Radulov's rookie season, Nashville should be pretty satisfied.

So, for the official Forechecker's Forecast...

Forechecker's Forecast, 2008-9 NHL Regular Season
Player	GP	G	A	Pts	Shots	Sht %
Patric Hornqvist	75	18	15	33	140	13

NHLPA head Paul Kelly is all business

the.forechecker@gmail.com (The Forechecker) — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 19:27:00 +0000

Adam Proteau over at the Hockey News has excerpts from an interesting interview with NHLPA head Paul Kelly posted today, and it's well worth harkening to the man who's lent credibility to an organization that was faltering in the wake of the Great Lockout. While Kelly's professionalism is welcome, his ideas still need to be vetted:

"...under the collective bargaining agreement, the players have no voice and no role, in a technical manner, as it pertains to relocation or expansion. And we don’t derive any financial benefit from that, which I think is a mistake."

That's a pretty odd misstatement on Kelly's part. If the NHL expands, the NHLPA instantly grows by ~25 members for each team. No, they don't get a cut of the expansion fee, but the NHLPA definitely benefits. In the event of relocation, there's no windfall either, but if a team moves to a more attractive market, hockey-related revenues will increase, of which the majority goes to the players.

"But if you’re in Phoenix or you’re in Florida, it’s really tough for those teams to put people in the seats and sell the game. We understand that and maybe the revenue-sharing system is part of the answer. But our view is that if teams in any region suffer (financial) losses three or four years in a row, then stop complaining about it in a (business) system you created and imposed here, and start asking the question whether you’re in the right place."

There are definitely concerns as to how the tight, $16 million range in the salary cap relates to the widely varying revenue of various teams, due in part to the relatively minor role that revenue sharing plays in the NHL compared to the NFL or NBA, which boast more lucrative, league-wide TV contracts. However, the notion that after 3 or 4 bad years a team should start the process to leave for a hungrier market is distressingly mercenary.

In the vast majority of (particularly American) markets, pro sports teams leverage long-term relationships with the cities they settle in, committing to lengthy stadium leases in return for tax breaks and arena funding. I'm convinced that part of why the NHL turned so suddenly against Jim Balsillie's attempt to buy the Predators is because he ran the risk of exposing the team and the league to breach-of-contract liability, with his blatant efforts to sell NHL hockey in Hamilton before making even a token effort to do so in Nashville. The risk there was that a Major League scenario would occur, with an owner deliberately sabotaging his team in order to drive down attendance and trigger a release clause. Rather than look at "losses three or four years in a row" to determine whether a market is viable (in which case the Blues, Islanders and Blackhawks would probably be relocating), it makes sense first to look at the competitive situation, and whether the team has failed to draw well even after achieving success. Teams like Tampa Bay, Dallas, and Carolina seem to be doing decently, well after having a sip from the Stanley Cup. Losing fails to sell anywhere, whether in Atlanta, Florida, Chicago or St. Louis.

Kelly did, however, extend a helping hand towards Gary Bettman, with a rejoinder to those who (myself included) wondered whether his job might be on the line over the Del Biaggio situation:

"You know, I was a federal prosecutor for 10 years and a white-collar practitioner for 12 years thereafter, so I know a little bit about due diligence and financial fraud. We at the NHLPA don’t get involved with any of this, but I think if someone is a sophisticated fraudster, they can conceal anything from anybody. It’s pretty hard to find."

Overall, it's a welcome insight into the thinking of one of the most pivotal figures in our sport.

J.P. Dumont, the 2008-9 Forechecker's Forecast

the.forechecker@gmail.com (The Forechecker) — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 15:06:00 +0000

When the Buffalo Sabres walked away from an arbitration award in the summer of 2006, making J.P. Dumont an unrestricted free agent, many approved of David Poile's subsequent signing of him as a savvy addition that would bring secondary scoring behind the likes of Paul Kariya and Steve Sullivan, who then led a deep Nashville attack. Two years on, Dumont is now wearing the "A", leading the charge up front along with Jason Arnott, and entering the first year of a new four-season contract paying him $4 million annually. Each of his two seasons with the Predators have seen progress in offensive production, so the main question with #71 is, has he reached his peak?

J.P. Dumont, 5 Year Overview
Season	Age	Team	GP	G	A	Pts	Pts/Gm	+/-	Shots	TOI/Gm
2003	24	BUF	76	14	21	35	0.46	-14	135	15:04
2004	25	BUF	77	22	31	53	0.69	-9	156	17:00
2006	27	BUF	54	20	20	40	0.74	-1	116	16:00
2007	28	NSH	82	21	45	66	0.80	14	143	16:12
2008	29	NSH	80	29	43	72	0.90	5	192	18:30

data from Hockey-Reference.com

At 30 years of age, it would appear that Dumont is entering the prime years of his NHL career, and it might be reasonable to expect continuing, marginal improvement (in other words, a small step forward, but nothing like 100 points or 50 goals). Besides the usual offensive contributions like goals and assists, Dumont led the Predators with a +11 Penalty Plus/Minus rating, which all by itself was worth roughly a point in the standings. Basically, Dumont is a cool-headed playmaker, adept at finding the soft spot in an opposing defense and making himself available and ready to accept a pass and shoot away. The key for J.P. to keep both the level of penalty drawing, as well as overall scoring up, is to keep his feet moving in the offensive zone. At times, he tends to coast around the perimeter, rather than dig hard for contested pucks.

Nashville's Dynamic Duo: Dumont & Arnott
Photo: Paul Nicholson

Looking ahead to 2008-9, it appears likely that further responsibility will be placed on Dumont's shoulders; another minute or so of ice time per game, perhaps, but not much more than that, which should increase his scoring chances. Any improvement in what was an awful Predators power play last year should boost his production as well.

So, for the official Forechecker's Forecast...

Forechecker's Forecast, 2008-9 NHL Regular Season
Player	GP	G	A	Pts	Shots	Sht %
J.P. Dumont	81	32	48	80	220	15

NHL teams come in S, M, L

the.forechecker@gmail.com (The Forechecker) — Wed, 27 Aug 2008 19:08:00 +0000

One of the age-old debates around any hockey team is whether your favorite squad is big enough and tough enough not just to cope with the long struggle of the NHL season, but whether they can intimidate an opponent into defeat. Back in the 1990's, Philadelphia fans drooled over the gargantuan Legion of Doom, while the Ottawa Senators, to cite one example, were accused of being too small and soft as they flopped in the playoffs a few years ago.

When we get right down to it, though, which are the biggest and smallest teams in the league today? To answer that question, I took the current player listing from NHL.com and linked it up to the player bio information, in order to get height and weight by team. For clarification, no goalies are included here, nor are players who didn't dress for at least one game in the 2007-8 NHL Regular Season. That said, we're left with a clear enough picture to follow the trends, so here are our contestants, sorted by average player weight:

NOTE: Table has been updated after a found an error in the original

Average Height and Weight by NHL Team (Inches & Pounds)
Team	Avg Hgt	Avg Wgt
San Jose Sharks	73.4	213.0
Ottawa Senators	73.1	208.5
Tampa Bay Lightning	73.9	207.9
Phoenix Coyotes	73.7	207.8
Washington Capitals	73.9	207.3
Calgary Flames	74.0	207.2
Florida Panthers	73.4	206.0
New Jersey Devils	73.6	205.7
Los Angeles Kings	72.9	205.7
St. Louis Blues	73.3	205.1
Columbus Blue Jackets	73.8	204.8
Edmonton Oilers	72.9	204.6
Pittsburgh Penguins	73.6	204.1
Montreal Canadiens	72.7	204.0
New York Rangers	73.5	203.9
Minnesota Wild	73.3	203.6
Colorado Avalanche	72.7	203.0
Toronto Maple Leafs	72.9	202.9
Chicago Blackhawks	73.3	202.5
Buffalo Sabres	73.1	202.4
Vancouver Canucks	73.3	202.2
Atlanta Thrashers	72.3	202.1
Anaheim Ducks	73.0	202.0
Philadelphia Flyers	72.7	201.5
Boston Bruins	73.1	200.7
New York Islanders	72.4	200.3
Dallas Stars	72.5	200.3
Carolina Hurricanes	72.5	198.8
Nashville Predators	72.6	198.5
Detroit Red Wings	72.3	198.5
NHL Total	73.1	203.8

How about those big, bad Ottawa Senators, coming in 2nd? And how do those Oilers skate so fast if they're the 5th-heaviest team in the league (strike that, I've updated the table)? It must be that pristine ice surface. What really stands out is your Stanley Cup Champions coming in lightest in the NHL...

Feel free to use this as ammo in your own message-board debates. Does your hometown team need to bulk up? Is your bitter division rival a pack of lumbering slobs (yes, I'm looking at you, Columbus)? I'm just laying the data out here, folks; it's your job to run with it...

A Wednesday Morning Quickie

the.forechecker@gmail.com (The Forechecker) — Wed, 27 Aug 2008 13:51:00 +0000

For a fascinating glimpse into hockey history, Eyes on the Prize reprints an old Sports Illustrated interview with Rocket Richard, during the final days of his legendary career. Here's a sample:

"It's changed. I'm the oldest; the rest are kids," Richard said one night in a Detroit bar which advertised a stereophonic juke box. ("I'd go where the boys go," he had said, "but it's not a nice place. This is a quiet little bar on the corner.") "I know I'm not playing good hockey now. I'm weak now. My legs are tired. After a minute and a half, I'm tired. I'm so tired. I will try to diet. I weigh 194 pounds. I've been playing at that weight for the last five years, but I'm so heavy I'm floating on air. I got to take off five or six pounds before the playoffs. Only one beer. That's all I'll drink. I'll drink gin. That isn't fattening."

Hmm... I wonder if Blues fans are going to start stocking up on the Bombay for Keith Tkachuk???

Vern Fiddler, the 2008-9 Forechecker's Forecast

the.forechecker@gmail.com (The Forechecker) — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 15:43:00 +0000

Have we ever seen a more fortuitously named athlete for his adopted city than Vern Fiddler of the Nashville Predators? Perhaps Terry Crisp when he coached in Calgary (Flames, Crispy, you get it), but not too many others come to mind.

Sorry, I just couldn't resist...

In 2007-8, Fiddler enjoyed another season of unheralded contributions as Barry Trotz's utility man; he played everywhere from the top line alongside Jason Arnott down to 4th-line checking duty, with his characteristic hustle bringing him a career-high 79 games played. Especially in a salary-cap era, Fiddler is the type of guy who provides quality depth and reliability. One metric that Lowetide likes to cite often is Even Strength Points per 60 minutes. Check out Fiddler's 2007-8 performance compared to his teammates:

Even Strength TOI and Pts per 60 Minutes, 2007-8
NAME	POS	GP	TOI/60	PTS/60
JEAN-PIERRE DUMONT	RW	80	13.81	2.88
ALEXANDER RADULOV	RW	81	12.94	2.86
JASON ARNOTT	C	79	13.78	2.65
MARTIN ERAT	RW	76	13.44	2.41
DAVID LEGWAND	C	65	12.07	2.29
VERNON FIDDLER	C	79	10.67	1.85
JAN HLAVAC	LW	80	13.24	1.81
JORDIN TOOTOO	RW	63	9.72	1.76
MARTIN GELINAS	LW	57	11.64	1.72
BRANDON BOCHENSKI	RW	40	10.25	1.46
SCOTT NICHOL	C	73	10.39	1.19
RYAN SUTER	D	76	14.4	0.93
RADEK BONK	C	79	12.26	0.93
MAREK ZIDLICKY	D	79	15.01	0.86
JERRED SMITHSON	C	81	9.22	0.8
DARCY HORDICHUK	LW	45	5.14	0.78
DAN HAMHUIS	D	80	15.94	0.75
GREG DE VRIES	D	77	15.38	0.71
JED ORTMEYER	RW	51	9.96	0.71
SHEA WEBER	D	54	14.72	0.6
VILLE KOISTINEN	D	48	12.58	0.6
GREG ZANON	D	78	13.69	0.28

Data from Behind the Net

That's not bad at all, and if you widen the comparison to all NHL centers with at least 40 GP last season, Vern fits right in between Anze Kopitar and Daniel Briere. Granted, those two are facing top defensive matchups, but that's pretty good production for a depth forward. By the way, Jason Arnott ranked 10th in this regard, right between Vinny Lecavalier and Mats Sundin. Fiddler's downfall at even strength was defensively, as he did come out as a -5 considering only even strength play, but again, for a 3rd/4th line player that's acceptable.

"So then I reached up this high and just started whaling on Chara..."
Photo: Paul Nicholson

Looking ahead to the 2008-9 NHL Regular Season, Vern will probably continue to fill a variety of roles, although I expect he might be used to add a bit more offensive punch to the Bonk line, and would also seem to be a good fit opposite one of the rookie wingers (Ryan Jones, Patric Hornqvist, Antti Pihlstrom) when they're not playing with Martin Erat or J.P. Dumont. Fiddler possesses a valuable combination of surprising strength along the boards and basic, heads-up hockey in the offensive end, which can help complement more dynamic players. Early last year he played alongside Jason Arnott and J.P. Dumont for a few weeks, but I doubt those opportunities will be as plentiful this fall. The interesting question is whether, since Fiddler tends to play mostly on the wing, he might get pressed for playing time by some of the rookies who are coming up through the ranks.

So, for the official Forechecker's Forecast...

Forechecker's Forecast, 2008-9 NHL Regular Season
Player	GP	G	A	Pts	Shots	Sht %
Vern Fiddler	70	8	20	28	80	10

Don't close the curtain on the Del Biaggio drama

the.forechecker@gmail.com (The Forechecker) — Sat, 23 Aug 2008 11:40:00 +0000

As the bankruptcy proceedings for Boots Del Biaggio continue, apparently some of his creditors want to keep the case closed from public access and scrutiny. The Tennessean today announced that they've launched a legal action to maintain visibility into the case, filing a brief in federal court. For hockey fans, this is important, as we've seen some pretty grizzly details come out already thanks to the reporting of Brad Shrade over the last several weeks.

Naturally, the parties directly involved in this case would prefer not to have their dirty laundry held up for view, but as the Tennessean argued, "the strong public interest here in access to the information about a case involving millions of taxpayer dollars outweighs the desire of the Committee and/or debtor to evade public scrutiny." In other words, given the Sommet Center lease renegotiation, which was in part dependent upon personal financial guarantees by the Predators ownership group, the people of Nashville have a clear and direct interest in this situation.

Kudos to Brad Shrade and the Tennessean for fully taking advantage of this opportunity to put the journalism back in "sports journalism" here.