OTF Classic

How I'm Trying To Make Money Sports Blogging

noreply@blogger.com (The Forechecker) — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 21:12:00 +0000

To kick off this series of articles general sports-blogging articles here at OTF Classic, I think it's best to start with a comment that Brad left here last week, after I shared my goals for 2012, which include specific revenue targets:

I considered diving into the world of internet marketing myself, but I felt that my friends would hate me for bugging them about stuff. I mean, it's pretty low-risk high-reward, so it's tempting. I wouldn't mind reading about tips on how to maximize impact of blogging in general to make it a legitimate income source.

Trying to make money at sports blogging can be a very touchy subject - for the vast majority of us, this is an activity we pursue to both exercise our creativity and share our love of the game, whether it's hockey, football, badminton, whatever, with fellow fans. Mixing that personal conversation with a commercial message can turn people off, especially if it becomes too intrusive for the reader.

It's not unreasonable to try and earn a buck or two at this gig, but in order to do so in a sustainable fashion, you're going to have to provide real value to your readers. Your wit & wisdom aren't generally enough to do that, so simply slapping banner ads up on your site and hoping that zillions of eyeballs will translate into significant cash isn't a realistic option. I had Google Adsense ads here on this site for years without ever hitting the $100-mark.

So here I'll share the various revenue channels which I'm developing in this pursuit of sports blogging as "more than hobby'...

The simplest thing I've learned over the last few years of trying this stuff is that no single method is likely to be the end-all, be-all solution. Having several different lines in the water allows you to see which avenues work best for your particular situation. For example, someone who's suited to doing product reviews may be best served by affiliate marketing, while the socially savvy may be more suited to something like Sponsored Tweets.

Here's what I'm working with, along with estimated revenues from 2011:

I receive a monthly stipend from SB Nation for running OTF, but by agreement with them I'm not privy to share the amount with you. I can tell that it represents a minority of the overall figure, however, just to give you a sense of scale.
The Ambassadors Club - this is a program through the Nashville Predators in which season ticket holders are encouraged to sell tickets to friends & family. They get a discount, and the AC member gets 10% of the sale deposited in their ticket account, to use on their tickets for the next season. I plug it via a special page I have posted at OTF, and for the 2010-11 season, my proceeds came to about $1200 in credit, which covered the cost of our 12-game package for 2011-12. I think that amount was 2nd or 3rd among members of the Ambassadors Club.
Sidebar advertisement - I have fixed ads on the sidebar here at OTF Classic which bring in $30/month.
Google Adsense - this handles other banner and sidebar ads, but doesn't bring in significant income since I deal in relatively low traffic levels (HGHQ draws about 300 pageviews a day). For the entire year across this site and HGHQ, Adsense brought in $33.
Sponsored Tweets - In a little over a year, I've earned about $440 through this program, which sends out occasional advertising messages through your Twitter account. You choose which advertising opportunities you take, and you write the tweets yourself, with input from the advertiser. You can also set guidelines on how often such tweets can go out, and the minimum time which should pass between them, so your feed doesn't become an endless stream of ads.

The big opportunity, however, is in Affiliate Marketing, and that's where I'm devoting a lot of energy these days.

The approach I've chosen to take with Affiliate Marketing is to complement my Nashville Predators coverage at OTF with a totally separate site, Hockey Gear HQ, which is designed to help people find the hockey items they want (jerseys, equipment, books, etc.) and save money while doing so. I can't tell you how many times I've had people tweet or email me asking where they can order a Preds jersey online, or how to find good bargains on hockey equipment (especially here in Nashville where the hockey stores are few and ill-stocked). Why not, then, create articles which answer those questions, refer the reader to reputable vendors, and receive a referral fee (affiliate commission) for doing so? The point isn't to shove these articles in readers faces, but to put them out there so that if someone is looking for that information, I'm there to help.

Mostly I work through 4 networks to find items and deals to promote - Google Affiliate Network, ShareASale, PepperJam, and Commission Junction. Between those networks, I netted about $856 in 2011. This is the area in which the greatest growth potential exists, so expect more about this side of things as this series progresses.

What you can't overlook in all of this, of course, is the cost side of the equation. Domain registration, website hosting, software costs and a few other items can eat up most of those earnings pretty quickly. For example, if I drive down to Bridgestone Arena once a week to cover a practice or other event, that's about 50 miles of driving, along with, say, $5 parking. The IRS has set mileage costs at 51 cents per mile for 2011, so each trip downtown carries a cost of about $30! Doing that once a week could chew up $1500 or more easily, and wipe out a good portion of those revenues above all by itself.

Maybe in a future post I'll touch on the tools I use to get all this done - or if you have another suggestion, feel free to drop it in the comments...

Getting bigger & better in 2012

noreply@blogger.com (The Forechecker) — Fri, 13 Jan 2012 20:19:00 +0000

2011 proved to be a turning point in my approach to hockey blogging, and I'm really looking forward to a productive 2012. They say that writing down your goals is the first step towards making them happen, so here we go...

In order to set my goals for 2012 in proper context, I think it's worth sharing some of what got done in 2011:

Roughly doubled the readership & traffic levels at OTF compared to 2010, which was honored by the Nashville Scene as Best Sports Blog in Nashville.
Added Marc Torrence (@OTFMarc) and Sam Page (@predsblog) to the writing staff at OTF, bringing different perspectives to the table.
Went through a redesign of Hockey Gear HQ and dove into the concept of internet marketing, earning just over $900 in revenue for the year. Having published less than 1% of the planned content for that site, I'm extremely hopeful that this can turn into a significant income generator.
Published an e-book on my fantasy hockey draft strategy, which, despite some glitches along the way, seems to have helped a number of folks. That strategy appears to be working, as I'm currently in 1st place in all 3 of the leagues where I used it!
Started an email newsletter at Hockey Gear HQ which now has over 100 subscribers, who receive updates every week or two about the latest sales and coupon codes related to all things hockey.
Dipped my toe into the waters of video blogging by setting up YouTube channels for both OTF and Hockey Gear HQ.

So what are my goals for 2012?

Double the readership at OTF again, specifically targeting 5 million page views for 2012.
Design templates which clearly present key hockey stats (including advanced stuff) for teams & players, to make their use in OTF articles more useful and accessible for the reader.
Publish at least one article per day at Hockey Gear HQ, and earn at least $10,000 there.
Revise and expand my fantasy hockey e-book this summer.
Grow the HGHQ email newsletter list to 1,000 subscribers
Produce at least one video blog each week, either for OTF or HGHQ.
Post at least one article per week here at OTF Classic, touching on issues relating to sports blogging in general (social media, search engine optimization, tips & tools, etc.).

Can I hit these goals? We'll see, but at least this takes care of my OTF Classic post of the week!

By the way, if there are any topics you'd like me to write about here, feel free to let me know in the comments...

The Rebuilding of Hockey Gear HQ

noreply@blogger.com (The Forechecker) — Wed, 19 Oct 2011 16:18:00 +0000

What a pain Russian hackers can be, eh?

My last couple weeks have been consumed by an infestation over at my side project, Hockey Gear HQ, which ultimately required burning the site to the ground and rebuilding it from scratch, making sure that my WordPress installation is air-tight this time around. I'm not completely done with the job yet, but the site is back up and running (quite safely I might add).

There was an opportunity in this effort, however, to freshen up the look of the place, which I was never quite happy with. So I've gone with the Genesis Theme Framework from StudioPress, using the News Child Theme, and I'm thrilled with it so far. The site not only looks more integrated and professional than my previous attempt, but the flexibility of the platform is amazing, I've only begun to dig into the various features that it offers.

In particular, I like the basic setup I've got in the main column, with the 5 most recent Featured articles showcased in a slider, below which two columns highlight recent posts from the Coupons and Reviews sections, because those are the two areas which I believe provide the most value to people stopping by the front page. I've got more work to do with navigation and adding some imagery, but so far I think it's already a big improvement over what I had before.

So while these last two weeks has been an experience that I would never have willingly gone through at this point in time, it's proven to contain some unexpected benefits. With two new products reviews coming in the next few days, and a host of ideas waiting in the queue, it should be a busy fall season at Hockey Gear HQ!

For those of you out there with sites of your own, how often do you take a fresh look at the design of your site, if ever? It's quite easy to set it up initially with a specific plan in place, but over time, the content & direction of the blog might take things in a new direction. Perhaps your design needs to keep up with the times...

Making sports blogging pay: 1 for 2 ain't bad

noreply@blogger.com (The Forechecker) — Mon, 10 Oct 2011 18:44:00 +0000

This summer I set a goal for myself of completing and marketing two products for hockey readers, as a step towards turning what has been a longtime hobby into something which might provide at least some kind of significant supplementary income. Well, here we are at the start of the 2011-2012 NHL season, and while I fell short of the goal, I am encouraged by what I did achieve, and the prospects I see going forward.

I think I've finally passed the first milestone, which was to bring in more money from writing about hockey and the Nashville Predators than I would by scrubbing toilets at their games (4 hours per game, minimum wage, 40-50 games a year depending on playoffs... do the math), so that's something.

For the first product, I was able to record a partial success, because while I didn't complete a full commercial product there, I was able to publish a fantasy hockey draft strategy eBook which I made freely available over at HockeyGearHQ.com, asking only that people sign up for the email newsletter there in return. The responses from readers were very positive, and it's something that I plan on revising and fleshing out further for 2012. Rather than attempt to provide insight and analysis on the entire league, the focus of that eBook is a method I've developed which helps ensure that your fantasy hockey cheat sheet is prioritized properly for the scoring categories used in each individual fantasy league. It's something different than what I've seen elsewhere, so I was glad to provide something of value to fantasy hockey managers.

The second product pretty much died on the launch pad, but is something I may want to attempt again in the future, so I'll keep that one under my hat. ;)

What is encouraging, however, is the direction which both On The Forecheck and Hockey Gear HQ are taking this fall. OTF was recently named Writer's Choice for Best Sports Blog in Nashville, a real feather in our cap, and Hockey Gear HQ is experiencing solid growth on a number of important fronts (traffic, newsletter subscribers, revenue, etc.). Oddly enough, even though Hockey Gear HQ was slapped together using my horrifyingly awful design skills, it's actually brought in almost as much revenue in 2011 as OTF. Again, it's about providing real value to readers, with the basic idea being to help people find the best deals on the hockey equipment and accessories that they're interested in. Hockey Gear HQ is very much a learn-on-the-fly endeavor on my part, because the style of writing required to do that type of site is quite different than at OTF, so it's a work in progress - but the sprouts are coming up.

The immediate future is all about covering the Nashville Predators season over at OTF, and getting ready for the holiday season at Hockey Gear HQ. I'm really looking forward to testing out a new Easton Stealth RS composite stick which recently landed on my doorstep, so that will be the next hockey equipment review there. If it's as good or better than the Easton EQ50 I tried last season, that'll be a thrill.

My goals for 2011: Make sports blogging pay off

noreply@blogger.com (The Forechecker) — Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:24:00 +0000

In my never-ending quest to figure out a model for making what is currently my hobby & passion into something bringing in at least a side income, I've decided to set a couple goals for myself to complete during the rest of 2011.

Simply put, I plan to publish two products over the next few months, which I hope will provide real value to hockey fans, and that they'll be willing to pay for.

Will it succeed? Will it fail?

The only way to know is to put my nose to the grindstone and get these two things done (I'll keep the details under my hat for now).

The important thing to note is that these efforts are in addition to anything I'm doing over at OTF. Taking away what we're doing over there and asking people to pay for it is a surefire lose-lose all the way around, because if there's anything we've learned over the last few years, it's that people love to read about sports, but only for free.

I'm also optimistic about Hockey Gear HQ, as I've had some early success there and see the potential to talk specifically about hockey equipment and apparel over there, in a more straightforward blogging/marketing environment.

In short, if I've going to turn this thing into a secondary career, I doubt there's one magic bullet that will get it done.

On a related note, Ben Koo of Bloguin had an insightful post on the latest developments in the world of online sports journalism, which features a panel discussion at Google that's also worth your time...

New directions for OTF

noreply@blogger.com (The Forechecker) — Wed, 15 Jun 2011 13:36:00 +0000

While my writings about the Nashville Predators are being posted over at OnTheForecheck.com, rather than this old site, I thought it might be worth touching base here every now and again to touch on "meta" issues, related to blogging in general.

In particular, these days I'm very much interested in how I can turn this time-consuming hobby into a bit of a revenue generator. Since I receive a small stipend from SB Nation to run OTF, I declared that income on my taxes last year, and realized that I should also be recording my expenses (for example, parking fees downtown when I go to cover a practice or press conference, mileage, etc.). It was a bit of a reality slap to see exactly how much I was spending on this endeavor, and with 3 kids heading off to college in 9-10 years, there's a bit of a financial imperative to turn the tables there.

So here's a few ideas I'm considering/pursuing:

A website devoted to hockey gear and accessories, HockeyGearHQ.com. The idea there is to build off the reputation I've developed online to provide news, reviews, and deals on hockey equipment and related items. People stopping by OTF aren't looking to buy anything when they visit, they just want to read about and discuss the Predators, so this site can be more of a straightforward sales effort. A couple examples there are the series on Father's Day Gift Ideas I'm running, and a post pointing people to Boston Bruins 2011 Stanley Cup Champions gear that's now available online.
Setting up another site specifically devoted to the art & science of sports blogging - I've learned a lot of lessons over the last several years, and perhaps that information could be of interest to folks from beyond the world of hockey.
Kindle Singles - these are mini-books that one can publish and sell on Amazon, typically for $0.99. Perhaps I could put together some long-form pieces of hockey analysis (more detailed than what goes into the blog) and sell them through there?

I'd be interested to get your input on possible directions here. It's not about shoving ads in people's faces, but providing real value to people in appropriate venues, and carving out my fair portion along the way. Is it possible?

A Twitter perk: Kobe Bryant's "The Black Mamba"

noreply@blogger.com (The Forechecker) — Sat, 19 Feb 2011 14:02:00 +0000

A nice perk from having gathered a decent-sized Twitter following (you can find me at @Forechecker) is that sometimes companies want me to help get the word out about something new. Today, it's a trailer for "The Black Mamba", featuring Kobe Bryant's alter ego. It just hit the web a few hours ago, so enjoy...

Launching the Hockey Gear HQ Network

noreply@blogger.com (The Forechecker) — Fri, 03 Dec 2010 03:45:00 +0000

I wanted to let you know that I am in the process of "soft launching" a new venture, the Hockey Gear HQ Network, a series of sites that will consist of news, reviews, and other features related to various forms of hockey equipment and accessories.

There is a consolidated RSS feed covering all of the sites, but also as an example, I'd invite you to check out my review of the Easton S19 Z-Shock helmet over at Hockey Gear HQ!

Update those bookmarks...

noreply@blogger.com (The Forechecker) — Sun, 05 Oct 2008 02:31:00 +0000

Considering the traffic numbers I'm seeing here lately, it's worth posting a reminder that going forward, On the Forecheck can be found over at a new site, OnTheForecheck.com, as part of the SB Nation community of sports blogs. You'll want to update as follows:

Web address: http://www.ontheforecheck.com

RSS Feed: http://www.ontheforecheck.com/rss

Moving On Up!

noreply@blogger.com (The Forechecker) — Thu, 18 Sep 2008 00:45:00 +0000

Well folks, the big news today is that after 3 years toiling away here on Blogger, I'm moving this blog to greener pastures; starting today I'll be contributing over at Kukla's Korner, under the same byline and focusing on the same issues. Namely the Nashville Predators, statistical analysis of NHL hockey, and the occasional forays into fantasy hockey or the business side of things.

I'm thrilled to be joining Kukla's Krew, along with the other new additions Mike Chen, Bethany, The Puck Stops Here, Red & Black Hockey, Goal Line Report, and SensHobo.

So switch your bookmarks over to the new address (http://www.kuklaskorner.com/index.php/otf/), and for RSS feeds, use (http://feeds.feedburner.com/kuklaskorner/Forecheck). Existing content will remain here for the time being, although there are two series of posts (Forechecker's Forecasts and The Forechecker's Fantasy Hockey System) that I've migrated over to Kukla's Korner so that as I complete them, all the articles are in one place. Those series will pick up tomorrow.

I want to thank all of you who have visited, emailed, or provided comments here over the last 3 years for your encouragement, suggestions, and corrections when I posted something truly boneheaded. I'm really excited for what this upcoming season holds, and like the rest of you, can't wait for the regular season to start!

Your Tuesday Morning Quickies

noreply@blogger.com (The Forechecker) — Tue, 16 Sep 2008 13:06:00 +0000

Big news for On the Forecheck coming tomorrow, but in the meantime...

1. Wheels are turning in Las Vegas to launch the construction of an arena near the Strip that is apparently destined for NHL hockey. James Mirtle breaks down the expansion scenario, as the NHL's Board of Governors prepares to meet in Toronto. Personally, I think this a fascinating possibility. While the locals may not be able to fully support a team there, I could definitely see a brisk business for people visiting there to catch their favorite team. Just ask yourself, would you rather pack up a few pals and follow your team to St. Louis, Edmonton, or Las Vegas?

2. One question I have is how expansion money might affect the Sommet Center lease agreement, which allows local ownership a buyout prior to 2012 if financial losses exceed $20 million. I know that when it comes to "Hockey Related Revenue" that drives the salary cap under the CBA, expansion fees (which may net each team $10-20 million if two teams join the league soon) aren't counted, but I'm not intimately familiar with the lease terms as to whether anything's different there. The reason that's important is that if expansions fees are considered part of the general bottom line (which I would consider likely), that may effectively take that 2012 buyout option off the table. I hate to even bring up lease stuff, but it's a thought that crossed my mind.

3. The Nashville Predators advertising campaign has kicked off, and it's good to see the team aggressively marketing themselves. When I moved to Nashville in the fall of 2005 I was suprised to see how little was being done in that area, other than a few incredibly lame billboards.

4. Puck Update highlights a fascinating occasion; a MSM columnist (Terry Frei) writes a column about Patrick Roy, gets blasted by readers for omitting comment about the infamous junior hockey brawl that Roy and his son were involved in, and then writes a followup that not only admits that he could have handled it better, but offers up a preferred version of his text. MSM "bloggers" aren't usually so interactive with their readers, let alone open to criticism and self-correction. Well done, Mr. Frei.

5. The Predators and "Our Team Nashville" are hosting a Rally at the Sommet Center all day Tuesday, September 23rd. It's a day chock-full of activities, with a radiothon running from 6 a.m. to 9 p.m. on 104.5 "The Zone". Just take a look at the happenings, and stop by at some point:

6-8 a.m.: FREE breakfast sponsored by Dunkin’ Donuts (mmm... donuts...)
10-11 a.m.: Hockey 101 Presentation (duck out of the office and tell your boss it's for an educational seminar)
11:00 a.m.: Nashville Predators Rookie Game
11 a.m. -1 p.m.: $5 Box Lunch Special
11 a.m. -12 p.m.: Nashville Predators Player Appearance (select players will be in attendance)
2:30-3:30 p.m.: Rookie Autograph Signing
4-6 p.m.: GNASH (Greater Nashville Area Scholastic Hockey) Senior Game
5-7:30 p.m.: Nashville Predators Foundation Silent Auction
5:45-6:30 p.m.: Beverley Mahood performing on Plaza
6:30 p.m.: Rally Begins
7:15-9 p.m.: FREE Public Skate (register at the Preds website beginning September 20).

The public skate on the Sommet ice sounds like a great idea. So if you work downtown, make your plans to stick around afterwards and catch some live music, get fired up at the rally, then do your best prat fall on the very ice where the Predators play.

Jerred Smithson, the 2008-9 Forechecker's Forecast

noreply@blogger.com (The Forechecker) — Fri, 12 Sep 2008 14:20:00 +0000

Last season Jerred Smithson became an every-night regular at the NHL level, playing 81 games for the Nashville Predators after 64 and 66 in the previous two campaigns. His even-strength work on a line with Radek Bonk and Jed Ortmeyer was pretty awful; I've said before that this may have been the worst line in the NHL last year. Where Smithson provides some additional value to Barry Trotz is his penalty killing work and relative success winning faceoffs. As competition increases for 3rd- and 4th-line ice time in Nashville, those are two qualities that might benefit him.

For the upcoming season, I would expect his 5-on-5 duty to be reduced somewhat, with a heavier emphasis on the PK and more of a specialized role as a lead-preservation guy.

So, for the official Forechecker's Forecast...

Forechecker's Forecast, 2008-9 NHL Regular Season
Player	GP	G	A	Pts	Shots	Sht %
Jerred Smithson	70	3	5	8	35	9

All Toronto needs is an NHL-caliber team

noreply@blogger.com (The Forechecker) — Fri, 12 Sep 2008 14:20:00 +0000

There's some interesting commentary from the Puck Daddy this morning about Toronto, which is fretting over the future of the Maple Leafs fan base. Apparently changing demographics and youth hockey participation trends don't bode well for Toronto's long-term outlook.

As for my $0.02 on the issue, I think the best thing for both the Toronto market and the NHL at large would be to get another team in that city. They could easily support it, and since the Maple Leafs are such a ridiculously tough ticket to get currently, that serves to isolate them somewhat from casual fans. A new, upstart franchise might help to shake things up in that regard. Look at the Mets and Yankees in New York to see how this could work.

If the Big Apple can support multiple hockey teams, Toronto absolutely would. Whether by expansion or by relocation (properly done, not a Balsillie-style hijacking), helping hockey grow even in the Great White North starts with making it accessible to the broadest audience possible. The problem, of course, is getting the Maple Leafs to drop their opposition to having another team within their zone of control; what they need to realize is that growing the game is in their own long-term best interest, as well as the best interest of the league.

The Return of Radulov?

noreply@blogger.com (The Forechecker) — Thu, 11 Sep 2008 16:05:00 +0000

Imagine my surprise to see this headline from Yahoo's Puck Daddy come across my screen: "NHLPA director: Radulov wants to leave KHL, rejoin NHL." This comes from an interview that NHLPA director Paul Kelly gave on Toronto radio.

Here's the money quote, per the Puck Daddy:

"My information is that the player very much wants to return and play in the NHL. I have that on extremely good authority. He's tried the KHL. He's seen what it has to offer for a few games already. He was quite successful last year for the Nashville Predators. I think, long-term, Alexander wants to play in the NHL. I believe there is an outcome which is doable, which will involve some type of an agreement between the NHL, the KHL, the player himself and the Predators."

This is sure to light up a firestorm of emotion from Predators fans, who were quick to rid themselves of the young phenom. Here's a sample from the Preds message board:

"Fine, come on back you POS. Find some other team with another Russian(s) to coddle this nutjob and make the trade Poile. I don't care if we get nothing in return, but under no circumstances let this f'er back on the team. "

This whole saga has been unusual, to be sure, and to have a player Radulov walk out on his team just as he was primed to enter NHL stardom was a cruel blow to a fanbase that has taken more than their fair share of abuse over the last year. So the reaction of many has been completely understandable.

That said, GM David Poile and the rest of the organization need to welcome Radulov back with open arms if he truly wants to return.

First of all, no genuine harm has yet been done; he's got time to report to training camp, so it's not like they've missed him from the lineup and have lost games as a result. Secondly, and most importantly, the Predators are a better team with Radulov in the lineup, and this episode has probably ruined his trade value, anyway. The clear path forward for the franchise is to invest in Radulov and themselves by charting a positive course heading into the new season.

The only parallel I can come up with here in terms of how Radulov might be accepted back to the team comes from the Sergei Fedorov offer sheet drama from 1997-98. After helping the Red Wings to their first Stanley Cup in 42 years, Motown was ecstatic about their team. When Vladimir Konstantinov and Sergei Mnatsakanov were critically injured in the tragic limo accident just days later, the emotional ties deepened as the community and the team rallied around thier stricken comrades. As that drama unfolded over the course of the summer of 1997, Fedorov, a restricted free agent, proved stubborn in negotiations with Detroit, not just over money but over his role on the team. Quite frankly, he wanted to be the #1 guy, and he knew that as long as Steve Yzerman was around, that was never going to happen.

Fedorov and the Wings were at an impasse for several months, and Detroit launched their title defense in the 1997-98 season with Fedorov holding out. It wasn't until midway through the season until Carolina came forth with an offer specifically crafted to screw Detroit (with hefty team-based incentives that Detroit was likely to achieve, but Carolina not). Hockeytown was calling for Fedorov to be shipped out of town as quickly as possible, but the Red Wings management played it cool, matched the offer, and welcomed #91 back into the fold.

As you should well know, they went on to win the Stanley Cup that spring, and added another in 2002 before Fedorov finally left as an unrestricted free agent as the most accomplished Russian in NHL history.

Were there ramifications for Fedorov out of all this? Certainly; there is a large part of the Detroit fan base that reviles him to this day, and things must have been awkward during the early days of his return. But the bottom line is these guys are all professional hockey players, and pretty quickly, getting into the routine of competitive play will reaffirm everyone's working relationships.

If Alexander Radulov truly wants to return to Nashville, the Predators would be wise to do whatever they can to make that happen, and also sit down with the young star to figure out how better to support him going forward. Do they need to bring in a senior Russian, either as a current player or team adviser, to lend him a hand? It surely wouldn't hurt to explore those kinds of options.

The point here is to focus on the days ahead, and how to make them best work out for the Nashville Predators; that would involve having a potential 30-40 goal scorer on one of your top two lines, even if he has spent the last few weeks lighting up the KHL.

Some Wednesday Afternoon Quickies

noreply@blogger.com (The Forechecker) — Wed, 10 Sep 2008 20:05:00 +0000

Three interesting stories came across my screen today, all of which provide a glimpse into how NHL teams are run; since we've still got two more weeks until training camp opens, they're well worth a read:

1. Courtesy of Kukla's Korner, Carolina's News & Observer digs into the NHL's contract insurance policy, and how it impacts the negotiations for big-time players. There's nothing specific to Nashville in here, but I couldn't help but think of Steve Sullivan's situation while reading it.

2. This link's a bit old, but the Bleacher Report featured an interview with Jason Bukala, one of the Predators' amateur scouts.

3. Lastly, the Preds website has an interview with Barry Trotz as he looks ahead to training camp, and extols the virtues of rookies he looks forward to seeing there. Here's the pre-camp spin on one such hopeful:

"He reminds me a lot of a Joe Mullen-type of a player. He’s very effective. He gets open. Off the rush, he shoots the puck well. He goes to the hard areas; he’s got really good timing about getting to the scoring areas at the right time. He just doesn’t plant himself in front of the net. He’s very competitive."

Ryan Suter, the 2008-9 Forechecker's Forecast

noreply@blogger.com (The Forechecker) — Wed, 10 Sep 2008 19:01:00 +0000

One of the questions that Nashville Predators fans worried over earlier this summer was whether the team would be able to retain both Ryan Suter and Shea Weber, the two high-profile restricted free agents due for major pay increases. Now that he's locked up for four more seasons at $3.5 million per, the focus shifts to how much of a step forward Suter will take as he shakes off the young rookie label and fills a key role on the Predators blue line.

Suter enters his 4th NHL season as a potent offensive threat
Photo courtesy of Paul Nicholson

Over the course of three seasons, Suter has steadily progressed into a solid two-way performer, and a key cog on the power play. He became much more aggressive offensively last season, firing 138 shots (compared to 87 the year before), presumably due to an increased opportunity working the point with the man advantage:

**Ryan Suter Even Strength & Power Play Performance**
**TOI = Time On Ice, Pts/60 = Points per 60 Minutes of Play**
Season	GP	EV Pts	PP Pts	EV TOI/G	PP TOI/G	EV Pts/60	PP Pts/60
2005-06	76	14	2	13:39	1:35	0.81	1.00
2006-07	82	13	9	14:20	2:31	0.66	2.62
2007-08	71	20	11	15:01	3:24	1.13	2.73

Basically, Suter's been getting an extra shift per game at even strength each year, and has grown into a pivotal role on the power play. Shorthanded work is pretty consistent (just over 2:00 per game each season), and with guys like Hamhuis, De Vries, and Zanon around, Suter doesn't need to spend much time on the kill anyway.

In terms of offensive production, then, we have two avenues that might offer a boost over the 7 goal, 24 assist performance of last season. The first would be an increase in ice time; many of the top offensive D-men around the NHL get more than 4:30 of PP time per game, and with the departure of Marek Zidlicky via trade, it's possible that some additional time there could go to Suter. Even strength duty could also see a marginal uptick, particularly depending on how Ville Koistinen is used; if Barry Trotz feels the need to spare Koistinen EV duty and leverage him mostly on the power play, that creates additional opportunity for the 23 year-old Suter to soak up extra shifts. Even if both those options are utilized, however, we're looking at perhaps a 10% increase in overall production.

What then, about a significant increase in Suter's scoring rates? Frankly, I think there's little reason to believe that those figures will change much, as we've seen three full seasons of Suter now and have a decent idea of what he brings to the table; sound offensive instincts, an opportunistic eye for jumping up into the play, and a good shot from the point. We also have to remember that it's not like the cast around him is going to be more offensively oriented. My hunch is that with Radulov gone his EV production will tail off a bit, while the PP rate may rise slightly.

When it comes to the defensive side of the game (about time I addressed that, he IS a defenseman, after all), Suter's certainly more than capable; he's been on the positive side of the Plus/Minus stat during all three of his seasons, his penalty minute totals are reasonable, and his steady increase in ice time is a clear sign of support from Barry Trotz, who is hardly shy about holding a young player back if he's causing problems. The toughest matchups are generally reserved for Dan Hamhuis, so Suter is generally placed in a position to succeed. I expect that trend to continue, and for Suter to take another positive step forward in what is becoming a fine, productive NHL career.

So, for the official Forechecker's Forecast...

Forechecker's Forecast, 2008-9 NHL Regular Season
Player	GP	G	A	Pts	Shots	Sht %
Ryan Suter	75	9	27	36	155	6

Sizzle or Steak? Or can we have both?

noreply@blogger.com (The Forechecker) — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 17:52:00 +0000

As we ponder the many ways that the Nashville Predators can fill out their top two forward lines, the usual discussions revolve around veterans on the back end of their career (Mark Parrish, Glen Murray) or rookies who yet to prove themselves at the NHL level (Patric Hornqvist, Ryan Jones). This is, of course, framed by the presumption that Nashville either can't or won't go after a bigger-name player in their prime years, such as Marian Hossa or Olli Jokinen, to cite two stars which changed teams this summer. The common wisdom is that a superstar like that is either outside the Predators budget constraints or that such a deal would violate GM David Poile's patient, long-term franchise building process.

So, when it comes to the NHL, what is best? Gaining a dynamic superstar who can excite a fan base, or a slowly assembling a deeper roster of less dramatic players that forsake individual glory for team achievement?

On the one hand, we have Brandon Felder, who in a recent post, wondered whether the Predators should pursue such a star, after noticing that no Predators were included in the Hockey News' "Top 50 Players" heading into the new season (never mind that Jason Arnott's exclusion was pretty poor). In Nashville, more so than many other NHL markets, marketing to the broader sports fan base is essential, and when the team acquired Peter Forsberg in the spring of 2007, it generated substantial buzz around the city. So yes, such a move might sell a few more Nashville Predators tickets.

On the other side of this question we have Ted Leonsis, owner of the Washington Capitals, who provided his insight into this question while blogging today about Tom Brady's injury woes. From his view atop a franchise which actually has a dynamic performer in Alex Ovechkin and is trying to assemble a championship-caliber group around him, he has a firsthand perspective to add. As he discussed his group's research into what makes elite teams work he ticked off several key traits, among which were the following (paraphrased):

1. Having great players who are willing to sublimate individual goals to team-based objectives.
2. Getting players to sign for less-than-market value (especially key in salary cap leagues like the NHL)
3. Having the whole organization fit the playing talent, with a consistent philosophy from the front office on down.
4. Consistency over the course of time with the system of play, instead of switching things around from year to year.
5. Staying healthy.
6. Being lucky.
7. Getting respect from the refs.

Now, when I look at this list, it jumps right out that the Detroit Red Wings fit this pretty darn perfectly. But, not to be denied, however, the Nashville Predators score highly as well:

1. They are blissfully free of "me first" types (especially now with Alexander Radulov back in the Old Country)
2. They've signed their core players to long term contracts for, in many cases, less money than they might have earned elsewhere (particularly J.P. Dumont)
3. There is definitely a consistent theme to the Predators, in terms of favoring mobile young defensemen, and generally emphasizing speed over size.
4. With only one GM and head coach throughout the team's history, the team enjoys a very consistent philosophy in how the game is approached.
5. Health has been an issue, mostly due to Steve Sullivan's severe back troubles. Every team faces injury issues from one year to the next, but in light of the other players lost in the 2007 Salary Purge, Sully's back was an added blow. Only now is the team basically resolved to moving forward on the assumption that he won't return.
6. Luck? It's hard to see luck being on the Preds side recently, but that can always change.
7. It would appear that the Predators are definitely getting respect from the officials; in total last year Nashville got 358 power plays and was shorthanded only 335 times, a difference of 23 special teams chances that was 9th-best in the NHL.

Overall, there's a lot there to like; and I tend to think that playoff success will do more to sell Preds tickets in the short- and long-term than signing a superstar would do. Now, the question is still open as to whether this really is an either-or proposition; but unless a blockbuster trade comes out of nowhere involving some of the key Predators assets, I highly doubt we'll see one of those "Top 50" players in a Nashville uniform this season. Next year, we'll see if Ryan Suter or Shea Weber make the cut, but until then, I'll make do with a well-rounded, workmanlike squad that the hockey world is writing off yet again.

UPDATE: Paul Nicholson tosses his $0.02 into the discussion, and looks at the possibility of a poor 2008-9 season leading to better times ahead.

The Forechecker's Fantasy Hockey System

noreply@blogger.com (The Forechecker) — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 14:48:00 +0000

Hockey training camps open later this month, so naturally the hockey poolies are starting to come out again, scooping up fantasy hockey guides at the bookstores and snooping their way around the internet to get the latest information on player transactions, depth charts, and projections for the upcoming NHL season. Last year I had the honor of participating in James Mirtle's Bloggers Invitational, and did quite well in the regular season before pulling up lame in the playoffs. I'm bound and determined to finish the deal this season, and along the way I thought I'd share some of the tools and techniques that have helped me over the years. The nice thing about these methods is that they apply to pretty much any fantasy sport, as they've served me successfully over the course of 15+ seasons of fantasy football as well.

The basic concept that I utilize is to have the most effective draft possible; we all know that Draft Day is by far the biggest single event of a fantasy hockey season, because even if you're able to make savvy trades and waiver pickups later on, the bulk of your fate is tied to the players you start the season with. After all, you can't swing that killer trade if you don't have something decent to offer.

Over the next couple weeks, I'll dig into each of these topics further, but to give you a taste, here are the fundamentals behind the Forechecker's Fantasy Hockey System:

1) Don't Pretend You Have a Crystal Ball: the goal here isn't to prove your genius by picking the next Brad Boyes-style breakout season. Chances are, you'll end up with just another Jussi Jokinen instead, and be left waiting for that guy to prove himself worthy of your backing the next season as well. There are some areas in which you'll want to tweak a cheat sheet to reflect your own projections, but the most common mistake fantasy owners tend to make is overdoing it.

2) Understand Your Fantasy League: It doesn't matter how the big magazines rank the Top 50 players; instead, make sure your draft rankings reflect your league's specific scoring system.

3) Know Your Opponents: Is your league made up of locals who are familiar with the hometown team and division rivals, but maybe not so savvy about teams from the other conference? This could help indicate prior to the draft which players are likely to be overlooked.

4) Run the Numbers: It's not just important to know how players rank, you also need to know where the major dropoffs occur. There might be 5-10 stellar offensive forwards, for example, and then you'll have a substantial gap down to a group of 20-30 guys who are all pretty similar. Knowing where those transitions occur can direct your choice in a particular round to the position where you can make the greatest impact.

5) Have Fun: The late rounds are where there's less and less deviation between players, so that's your chance to take a flyer on your favorite mucker who you think might prosper in new surroundings, or that young, inconsistent phenom who you think is ready for NHL stardom. By choosing these guys in the late rounds, if you get burned the damage is minimal.

6) Youth Will Not Be Served: Rookies, for the most part, aren't ready to produce over the course of an 82-game regular season. Don't depend on them for steady production.

Again, I'll dig into each of these topics in more detail over the coming weeks. Until then, keep working on that oh-so-creative team name that'll keep your opponents chuckling all season long.

Your Monday Morning Video Quickie

noreply@blogger.com (The Forechecker) — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 13:22:00 +0000

Everybody can use a giggle on a Monday morning, so here's a brief clip from last Wednesday's GOAL (Get Out And Learn) session, in which a few dozen kids from ages 4-9 with little to no skating or hockey experience get a basic introduction to the game, courtesy of the Nashville Predators. You can just imagine what happens when they're all lined up along one goal line, and then told to race down to the other end...

Antti Pihlstrom, the 2008-9 Forechecker's Forecast

noreply@blogger.com (The Forechecker) — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 21:03:00 +0000

One of the interesting storylines to follow during training camp later this month will be the progress of Antti Pihlstrom, the Finnish agitator who has an outside shot at landing a roster spot with the Predators. After leading the AHL's Milwaukee Admirals in goal scoring (with 27 in 78 games), is Pihlstrom ready for the big stage in Music City?

Pihlstrom is likely to make his biggest impact as a 3rd- or 4th-line banger, with enough scoring touch to provide an occasional boost to the Nashville attack. At 23 years old, we've probably got a decent picture of how he'll fare at the NHL level. Similar to the preview for Patric Hornqvist, let's use Gabriel Desjardin's League Equivalencies work to make a basic projection. In this case, we have a guy who posted 27 goals and 18 assists in 78 games for Milwaukee, a Points Per Game rate of 0.58. Desjardin's Equivalency value for a 23 year-old transitioning from the AHL to the NHL is 0.41, so multiplying it by Pihlstrom's 0.58 PPG gives us a benchmark of 0.24 PPG for the upcoming season. In other words, we don't appear to have an offensive star in the making here, but that doesn't mean he can't be a serviceable player.

Now, this value assumes that Pihlstrom's role in Nashville is going to be similar to that which he enjoyed in Milwaukee, and I seriously doubt that will be the case. Based on what's been said in the press so far (an admittedly shaky proposition), he'd have to beat out Ryan Jones, Patric Hornqvist, and any potential veteran acquisition to earn a spot on one of the top two lines. Then when you consider the fact that Pihlstrom has one of the few two-way contracts among forwards, I would guess that Antti will spend most of his time down in the AHL, called up occasionally for fill-in duty as injuries crop up, similar to what Rich Peverley did last season.

On the positive side, there may be reason to believe that the Equivalency figure might trend a bit higher, given the likely improvement in AHL play since that study was done, but I suspect the adjustment for that would be pretty minor.

So, for the official Forechecker's Forecast...

Forechecker's Forecast, 2008-9 NHL Regular Season
Player	GP	G	A	Pts	Shots	Sht %
Antti Pihlstrom	20	2	4	6	25	8

Pekka Rinne, the 2008-9 Forechecker's Forecast

noreply@blogger.com (The Forechecker) — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 15:38:00 +0000

Today's projection should be an easy one. Coming into training camp Pekka Rinne has 3 career games of NHL service, so normally one might wonder if there's much history to leverage in terms of predicting future performance. But with the Predators, we have a very clear guideline to follow. Each of the last two seasons have seen Nashville's backup goaltender steal the spotlight with a performance among the very best in the NHL. After all, Chris Mason's 2006-7 season was, by some measures, tops in the league that year, and Dan Ellis led all goaltenders in both regular season and playoff save percentage in 2007-8.

What then, to expect of young Mr. Rinne, who, after salutary duty in Milwaukee the last three years (including an AHL All-Star appearance last season), has been anointed the #2 man in the Predators goal? First, expect a very different profile in net; Rinne stands 6'5", a fair bit taller than Ellis (6'0") or previous #1 Chris Mason (also 6'0"). It will be interesting to see how the team adapts to having him in goal as a changeup from the nimble, puckhandling Ellis; there were times last year when there seemed to be confusion between the defense corps and goaltender when Ellis or Mason would get pulled in the middle of a game. For instance, a defenseman would swoop behind the net to pick up a loose puck only to find Ellis already there playing it ahead, a stark difference from Mason, who would let his blueliners handle it more often.

I would guess that Rinne will get a decent workload, due largely to a couple reasons why Ellis's workload needs to be relieved. This will be his first season as a designated top starter, so right there one wouldn't figure Ellis for a Nabokov-like 77 games. In addition, he faced some issues maintaining his playing weight down the stretch and into the playoffs last spring, so over the course of the long NHL season, it makes sense to manage his playing time somewhat, if only to ensure he's fresh for a playoff run. Rinne might play something like 25-30 games, depending on how Ellis's weight management program goes.

So, for the official Forechecker's Forecast...

Forechecker's Forecast, 2008-9 NHL Regular Season
Player	GP	W	L	GAA	Save Pct.
Pekka Rinne	28	13	12	2.70	.905

Jed Ortmeyer, the 2008-9 Forechecker's Forecast

noreply@blogger.com (The Forechecker) — Wed, 03 Sep 2008 15:25:00 +0000

Happy 30th Birthday wishes go out to Jed Ortmeyer, and in his honor, today's Forechecker's Forecast is devoted to the one-time University of Michigan Wolverine.

Jed signed a two-year deal with Nashville last summer, and the expectation has been that he'd provide basic checking and penalty killing work. He began the 2007-8 season playing the left wing alongside Radek Bonk in the middle and Jerred Smithson on the right side, on what was supposed to be a shutdown line. As it worked out, however, the only thing that got shut down was the Predators offense when those three hit the ice.

Nashville Predators 5-on-5 Advanced Statistics, 2007-8 Regular Season
NAME	POS	GP	TOI/ 60	RATING	QUAL COMP	QUAL TEAM	PTS/ 60	GFON/ 60	GAON/ 60	+-ON/60	GFOFF/ 60	GAOFF/ 60	+-OFF/ 60
JASON ARNOTT	C	79	13.78	1.90	0.05	0.24	2.65	3.86	2.42	1.43	2.13	2.60	-0.47
ALEXANDER RADULOV	RW	81	12.94	0.89	0.01	0.22	2.86	3.61	2.80	0.80	2.23	2.32	-0.09
JEAN-PIERRE DUMONT	RW	80	13.81	0.74	0.03	0.45	2.88	3.53	2.93	0.60	2.20	2.35	-0.15
SCOTT NICHOL	C	73	10.39	0.59	-0.05	-0.21	1.19	2.69	1.98	0.71	2.66	2.54	0.12
BRANDON BOCHENSKI	RW	40	10.25	0.42	-0.06	-0.02	1.46	2.05	1.17	0.88	2.51	2.05	0.46
DAVID LEGWAND	C	65	12.07	0.41	0.01	-0.03	2.29	3.06	2.68	0.38	2.67	2.70	-0.03
MARTIN GELINAS	LW	57	11.64	0.36	0.02	-0.14	1.72	2.44	2.08	0.36	2.70	2.70	0.00
JAN HLAVAC	LW	80	13.24	0.27	0.07	0.02	1.81	2.44	2.66	-0.23	2.48	2.98	-0.50
MARTIN ERAT	RW	76	13.44	0.23	0.07	0.13	2.41	2.88	2.64	0.23	2.47	2.47	0.00
DARCY HORDICHUK	LW	45	5.14	-0.13	-0.19	-0.49	0.78	1.30	1.56	-0.26	2.61	2.75	-0.13
VERNON FIDDLER	C	79	10.67	-0.67	-0.00	-0.04	1.85	2.35	2.71	-0.36	2.71	2.40	0.31
JORDIN TOOTOO	RW	63	9.72	-0.88	-0.07	-0.00	1.76	2.25	3.14	-0.88	2.61	2.61	0.00
JED ORTMEYER	RW	51	9.96	-1.52	0.01	-0.62	0.71	1.30	2.48	-1.18	3.17	2.83	0.34
JERRED SMITHSON	C	81	9.22	-1.68	-0.02	-0.44	0.80	1.04	2.25	-1.20	3.06	2.58	0.48
RADEK BONK	C	79	12.26	-2.24	0.05	-0.22	0.93	1.43	3.04	-1.61	2.97	2.34	0.63

This table, courtesy of Behind the Net, requires a bit of explanation. It isolates the Goals For and Goals Against performance for the Nashville forwards last season, in terms of Goals For and Against per 60 minutes of play while that player is on the ice, and also how the rest of the team performs when that player is on the bench, thus revealing the impact an individual has on the overall result.

The single column that points this out is Rating, which reflects, per 60 minutes of play, the shift in a team's GF/GA differential when a given player is on the ice. Jed's -1.52 showing there is pretty awful; as to whether or not he faced elite offensive opponents, and that had an effect on his results, the Qualcomp shows the quality of opposition he faced. At 0.01, he basically went against middle-of-the-road competition, so that's not an excuse. How about the performance of his linemates? Did that bring him down? An argument can possibly be made there, as Smithson and Bonk are the only two guys with worse 5-on-5 Ratings, and Jed's Qualteam (quality of teammates played with) mark of -0.62 is worst on the squad; that line just made for a horrible combination.

Offensively, when Ortmeyer/Bonk/Smithson went out there, the Goals For/60 Minutes for Nashville plumetted down to the 1.04-1.43 range, down from typical values of 2.5-3.5. Defensively, the Goals Against numbers didn't vary much from what the rest of the team did. In a nutshell they failed to shut down opponents, while contributing minimal offensive pressure at the same time. That's a losing combination, and I doubt we'll see this line brought back together this fall.

Jed's ice time may well be threatened by the prospect of rookies like Ryan Jones and Antti Pihlstrom cracking the Nashville lineup; Patric Hornqvist appears destined for Top Six duty, so that's not a direct threat to Ortmeyer. As to penalty killing, Smithson and Scott Nichol have dibs on the major duty there, along with David Legwand and Vern Fiddler. My guess is that Jed's going to be watching from the press box quite a bit this season, filling in as injuries strike one of the PK guys or when Barry Trotz is feeling too stressed out by rookie defensive gaffes.

So, for the official Forechecker's Forecast...

Forechecker's Forecast, 2008-9 NHL Regular Season
Player	GP	G	A	Pts	Shots	Sht %
Jed Ortmeyer	40	4	6	10	60	7

The Forechecker's Fabulous Hockey Blogroll

noreply@blogger.com (The Forechecker) — Tue, 02 Sep 2008 19:53:00 +0000

In order to tidy things up I've consolidated the blog roll here into its own post, which will be available via a link in the page header throughout the site.

Please note that rather than attempt to provide a comprehensive listing (which you can find in many other places), I'm only listing sites that regularly post material, are part of my Google Reader feed of steady hockey reading, and I feel comfortable endorsing to others. That means there are some well-known sites which you won't find listed here, probably because I'm just not a fan of the writing. I'm no Buzz Bissinger, but I do believe there's a lot of content out there that I just can't endorse with a link.

Yes, there are definitely some areas that could use beefing up (there have to be more good Pacific Division blogs, right?), so feel free to either leave a comment here with suggestions.

Nashville Predators	General NHL
Geek Thoughts	Kukla's Korner
Pred Joe	James Mirtle
Paul McCann	Spector's Hockey
Brandon Felder	Mike Chen
	Legends of Hockey
	American Hockey Fan
	Hockey Rants
	GoonBlog
	Two for Elbowing
Statistical Analysis	The NHL Arena
Hockey Analytics	NHLDigest.com
Hockey Numbers	The Puck Stops Here
BehindTheNet Blog	Hockey's Ladies of Greatness
HockeyAnalysis.com	Barry Melrose Rocks
	Illegal Curve
	Inter Ice Hockey Report
	Red Light District
	Puck Daddy
	NY Times Slap Shot Blog

Central Division	Atlantic Division
Here Come the Hawks
The Third Man In	2 Man Advantage
Bethany's Hockey Rants	Interchangeable Parts
End of the Bench	Islanders Army
Neutral Zone Trap	The Drive for Five
Abel to Yzerman	The View From Section 317
Behind the Jersey	Ranger Pundit
Gloveside	Battle of New York
Gorilla Crouch	Confluence of the 3 Rivers
On The Wings	Going Five Hole
No Pun Intended	The Hockey Fanatic
St. Louis Game Time	Igloo Dreams
	The Sidney Crosby Show
Northwest Division	Northeast Division
mc79hockey	so.very.obsessed
Battle of Alberta	Wicked Bruins Fan
Five Hole Fanatics	BfloBlog.com
Jerseys and Hockey Love	Sabre Rattling
Jibblescribbits	All Habs
Covered in Oil	Eyes on the Prize
Irreverent Oilers Fans	Habs Inside/Out
Wild Puck Banter	Sisu Hockey
Canucks & Beyond	A Theory of Ice
Canucks Hockey Blog	Scarlett Ice
Tom Benjamin	Pension Plan Puppets
	Raking Leafs
	Waiting For Stanley

Pacific Division	Southeast Division
Battle of California	Southeast Shootout
Girl With a Puck	Talking Thrash
Andrew's Dallas Stars Page	Thrashers Talons
One Fan's Perspective	CanesCountry
Sharkspage	CasonBlog
	red and black hockey
	Japers' Rink
	Off Wing Opinion
	On Frozen Blog
	Puckhead's Thoughts
	Ted's Take
	The Peerless Prognosticator

Josh Gratton, the 2008-9 Forechecker's Forecast

noreply@blogger.com (The Forechecker) — Tue, 02 Sep 2008 17:32:00 +0000

Amidst the Radulov drama and the Marek Zidlicky trade, one roster move that's been somewhat overlooked involves the enforcer role, fulfilled the last three seasons in Nashville by fan favorite Darcy Hordichuk. The heir apparent to that job is Josh Gratton, a dedicated knuckle-duster who played all of 1 NHL game last year, and 52 the year before for Phoenix. I'm guessing that this is a fan-created site and nothing that Gratton himself has created (although "Chin of Steel" is certainly a moniker worth promoting).

Coming soon to a fist near you...

Other than finishing 2nd in the league with 188 penalty minutes in the 2006-7 season, Gratton's NHL-level resume is pretty thin. Basically, there's not much there to suggest that Gratton will bring anything to the Predators' on-ice performance that any other goon (err... enforcer) would. As James Mirtle so ably pointed out earlier this summer, guys like that don't play a lot, and don't do much to help their hockey team win when they're on the ice. Basically they're turning into the NHL's form of risk management. You keep a guy like Gratton on the bench until you're concerned that your opponent is taking liberties with your stars; then you send him out to do his duty, since you'd rather have him risk injury than one of your core players.

It seems to me that in the modern NHL that's pretty much a waste of a roster spot, and personally I'd rather see a no-defense puck-dangler get that limited action each night, perhaps as a cameo PP guy and shootout specialist.

So, for the official Forechecker's Forecast...

Forechecker's Forecast, 2008-9 NHL Regular Season
Player	GP	G	A	Pts	Shots	Sht %
Josh Gratton	40	0	2	2	20	0

Pardon The Dust

noreply@blogger.com (The Forechecker) — Mon, 01 Sep 2008 18:46:00 +0000

Lots of template tweaking going on today, so please don't mind some odd formatting you may see from time to time. I'm going to a 2-column layout to increase the amount of space for the articles (and data tables I may include within them).

The blogroll will appear as its own separate article, and a button to get to it will appear in the header. For now, at least, I wanted to save what I had so far. Comments from the Peanut Gallery, are, of course, welcome and appreciated.