Money Never Sleeps : Make it Worth Your While

Deccan Chronicle

2012-07-01T20:10:00.002-07:00

Deccan Chronicle

The comments of the post have been deleted from this blog as readers may find the stock extremely cheap at current levels sub Rs 10 , if they only read the post and not the Disclaimer

The stock was advised at Rs 30 and came the Care downgrade. We were sceptical at that point as well due to double standards but when we read news that cars were taken back we felt it was a bit more serious.
We yet felt it was good but had to bite the bullet once it halved.

We advised investors to book a 50% loss at 17odd levels as it had entered a speculative phase and was prudent. It had become speculative stock -one which taught me something new.

Its was going to languish for a long time as one blow came after another.

I felt angry at sending a wrong trade to the followers of the blog and discontinued post this trade.

The management played a game which i still continue to ponder.

I always mention never invest more than 5-7 % of the portfolio in a particular stock and do your own due diligence yet a small part within holds that responsibility and study before buying

On this same blog investors have reaped benefits of multibaggers
This was bad as no investor saw something like this

Updated View on Provogue as of 01-July-2012 : Booking Out of Latest Addittions

2012-07-01T19:19:00.000-07:00

Updated View on Provogue as of 01-July-2012 : (Closing out New Positions @ 15.4-Gain of 30%)

http://rupeeneversleeps.blogspot.in/2012/07/updated-view-on-provogue-as-of-01-july.html

I have been a close follower of Provogue but have changed my views over the last few weeksost results and looking at its balance sheet.
I think its prudent to share it as i have my bullishness.

Note:

This is only for investors who have followed my view on Provogue since Feb 2011.
The Sell is for investors who have added following that.
Primarily stock is good but we have reduced exposure considering various parameters

1) Provogue's a good Business even at current price of 15.
2)If i was a promoter would have bought out and delisted
3)Reason for change in View (important)
a)Bought other mispriced stocks
b) Recent results were pathetic and Empty stores on few surveys across stores.

I have reduced my bullishness on Provogue since i last wrote Multibagger @ 12 levels. and continue to hold only older positions.
Our initial cost on Provogue pre-demerger stood at 24.
so if i split at half between Provogue and Prozone each stands at 12odd. (Assigning Base of Rs12 for Prozone)

Yet i was looking on the Market Cap basis and it continues to look cheap on that.
But on free cash flow basis it was far more disappointing looking at its Balance sheet this FY2012.
On Top RESEULTS WERE Pathetic

I am yet to go through the annual report but the fresh buy as of May 2012 stands close as of 01- July @ 15.4 (again a Gain of 30%)

FDI in Retail is not going to change much immediately, However PHYSCOLOGICALLY stock would move to around Rs20 and at these levels we are looking to sell half of our pre-Demerger positions.(effective adjusted gain of more than 50%)

.

Again i Repeat the rise seen is these stocks is not structural as RBI Has not budged on the rates and is purely Driven due to GLOBAL RISK-ON.
Hence taking partial profits is advisible. 30-50% in two months is a no brainer

GMR Infrastructure Updated- 01-July 2012

2012-07-01T18:58:00.000-07:00

Hi,

Welcome back.its been a amazing ride since May14 the last i wrote out here.
"As of Date We have got out of those low beta stocks and have started buying select infra names again."

http://rupeeneversleeps.blogspot.in/2012/07/gmr-infrastructure-updated-01-july-2012.html

Our Infra stock which we sold off fully in Jan-Feb and re entered at lows again.
3 times in a row consecutively.
Seems amazing. Isnt it???

Its time to sell in the coming rally. Keep half and gradually sell half.
The reason being this is a liquidity push rally ans short sellers are trapped

GMR : We again bought this initially around 20-21 and increased it sub 20levels.
              It has bounced 20% and stands at 25 as of close.
              We are planning to sell 10% at every increase of Re1
              So if you held 1000 shares
              Sell 100 at 26, 100 at 27 till you sell 100 at 30 levels if rally extends that long

Refer to other updated views on IVRCL, NCC, Provogue

Again i Repeat the rise seen is these stocks is not structural as RBI Has not budged on the rates and is purely Driven due to GLOBAL RISK-ON.
Hence taking partial profits is advisible. 30-50% in two months is a no brainer. And indirectly your other half is literally free.

IVRCL Infrastructure Updated- 01-July 2012

2012-07-01T18:56:00.003-07:00

Hi,

Welcome back.its been a amazing ride since May14 the last i wrote out here.
"As of Date We have got out of those low beta stocks and have started buying select infra names again."

Our Infra stock which we sold off fully in Jan-Feb and re entered at lows again.
3 times in a row consecutively.
Seems amazing. Isnt it???

http://rupeeneversleeps.blogspot.in/2012/07/ivrcl-infrastructure-updated-01-july.html

Its time to sell in the coming rally. Keep half and gradually sell half.
The reason being this is a liquidity push rally ans short sellers are trapped

IVRCL:

Another infra stock we bought at 44 levels and suggested to buy all the way below to 40levels becoz of Essel groups interest.
(Read Rupeeneversleeps -- Views as of May 2012 ) below link,

We expect a sudden spurt of 7-10% in the next 2 days and suggest existing again 10% on every rise above 56
So if you held 1000 shares
Sell 100 at 57, 100 at 62 till you sell 100 at 65 levels if rally extends that long.

Refer to other updated views on GMR, NCC, Provogue

Again i Repeat the rise seen is these stocks is not structural as RBI Has not budged on the rates and is purely Driven due to GLOBAL RISK-ON.
Hence taking partial profits is advisible. 30-50% in two months is a no brainer. And indirectly your other half is literally free

NCC Updated- 01-July 2012

2012-07-01T18:49:00.003-07:00

Hi,

Welcome back.its been a amazing ride since May14 the last i wrote out here.
"As of Date We have got out of those low beta stocks and have started buying select infra names again."

Our Infra stock which we sold off fully in Jan-Feb and re entered at lows again.
3 times in a row consecutively.
Seems amazing. Isnt it???

http://rupeeneversleeps.blogspot.in/2012/07/ncc-updated-01-july-2012.html

Its time to sell in the coming rally. Keep half and gradually sell half.
The reason being this is a liquidity push rally ans short sellers are trapped

NCC : Ncc I did not mention in May as i bought it much later as it fell very sharply to 30 levels.
Here we suggest existing 10% from current levels of 45.
Only if IVRCL DEAL is announced will it rise. So rather ride the horse. "IVRCL"

look at the correlation over the last one year, post the ESSEL News and last one month. There is a standard 10-15% gap which is mostly corrected

Refer to other updated views on GMR, IVRCL, NCC, Provogue

Again i Repeat the rise seen is these stocks is not structural as RBI Has not budged on the rates and is purely Driven due to GLOBAL RISK-ON.
Hence taking partial profits is advisible. 30-50% in two months is a no brainer. And indirectly your other half is literally free.

Rupeeneversleeps -- Views as of May 2012

2012-05-14T12:03:00.001-07:00

Dear Readers,

First let me thank everyone for the positive replies send on my mail id.
Please continue to share your feedback (Positive as well as negative) on rupeeneversleeps@gmail.com.

Remember this is not for an Investor who aims to earns 10-15% in the stockmarkets.
Its for someone who understands Businesses and has risk and patience to hold for longer periods of time.

As of today which are safe stocks to earn 15-20% annually for 2-3. years
They wont include names i may mention below in detail. This is for superior returns which may or may not happen. VERY IMPORTANT NOTE-- In my next Post i will list down stock for people who have low risk appetite and yet can enjoy great returns from equities

We got many ivestment trades right throughout this year so we should be happy.
However one two blunders continue to trouble me. But who said one can be 100% right all the time.
The more important part being when one is wrong how much did one end up loosing.

So lets get down to business again. Market mood is pretty bad and thats the time i usually like to write as while sharing my thoughts i get the motivation to buy more and add at lower levels as well.

Today is your lucky day especially if you are loaded up on cash as i am going to pour my views again------------
So dont rush and Buy everything tommorow. Keep Buying for next 2-3 months and literally we would past the storm far behind.

Before that lets get back to last Four months with Rupeeneversleeps

1)Check enroute post of November - http://rupeeneversleeps.blogspot.in/2011/10/enroute.html
This is what i wrote in November.
Im buying only UGLY STOCKS----Infra --Power...Realestate .

Refer to twitter updates to know our historic updates on the same. We have been biuying these 3 sectors from November to January.
2)The best part being we sold all infra companies---Isnt that Amazing??
The only stock we continued to hold was IVRCL (primarily on back of takeover by Essel Group)

This is what i wrote on Feb 13 2012

http://rupeeneversleeps.blogspot.in/2012/02/ugly-ducklings-delivered.html
A possible 20% correction is possible again in individual names in these sectors from recent highs.
We have shifted the money now to lower beta names with dividendyields of 4-6% which also cracked due to the whole market downfall. They offer a great risk return profile.

Im short on Nifty @ 5331 . I dont see a sharp downside for feb but the budget could be a game changer. Its good to hedge buy shorting or buying lower strike puts.

As of Date We have got out of those low beta stocks and have started buying select infra names again.
We have bought GMR again @ 20-21rs levels. Delhi Airport Hike is a big positive.
Its assets are far superior to trade at an Enterprise Value of 10-12billion$
If some one owns this stock for next 4-5 years.
Its gonna deliver 4-5 time Return.
I only hope it stays down this time for long that can accumulate it properly.
We bought it last time @28 all the way to 18 and sold off all @ 27.
I have posted this in the posts below and can even reference dates to check if anyone is suprised.

IVRCL is the second stock we bought. That too Today only @44.6 to be precise.
Analysts love coming and advising a Buy when stock howevers @ 70+levels.
and advise a sell today@45. I think its gonna open down tommorow and even slip to 30s but im in no hurry either. I had to buy the first hit today.
Its good now if it goes lower. Atleast now i have some Big third party who feels the value of this company in distressed times is between (70-105rs)-- Essel group is a smart horse and wont go for a shot unless it sees great potential.
Again Advise is Buy ur first percentage and keep buying every week for next 2 months.
Bought Ivrcl @ 52, @ 42 and @34 ----Sold half @ 52.
Sold more @ 64 after i had written the post.
Now have Reentered @44.6 levels.

We have bought Provogue with Added Conviction Post Demerger Aswell.
Will detail Updated Take on Provogue Below.

Now before i go ahead some quick hits and misses on Individual Names over the Past few months.

Let me start with misses as i hate that part as well

1) Lanco: Has been a disaster for me . I had advised @ 24. Bought more @ 8-10 levels and have bought more @12 recently. My take on Lanco is that of an Asset play.
I had thought the government would do more on Coal considering our huge Coal reserves nevertheless i am wrong.
I had said it was for risky investors but i still hold hope on this.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Provogue Update View (Multibagger @ 12rs)

2) Provogue-- Now it Depends on the Reader how has played this stock with me
Please Read Fundamental View on Provogues Business (Continue holding that view)
I had intially advised a Buy On Provogue in Feb 2011 @ 34 levels considering very cheap valuations.
People have not lost much but have not gained as much i expected in the process
What we did??? All info can be crosschecked from this blog and twitter Posts
a) Bought initially @ 34
b) Sold half @ 45 (it moved in a week post my blogpost) actually next day it hit an Upper Circuit
c) Bought @ 24-25
d) Bought Much more @17 (suprisingly near low)--- Lucky me (i was literally shocked to see 17)
e) Our Average Came to 24-25

Prior to demerger advised twice @ 26 and even @ 30 levels

Closed @34rs prior to Demerger So in the process many Buys and Sells---

Now Post Relisting Dont know Market Went Mad and Halved the Stock???
The answer should make you Buy the Stock understanding the Company.
Myth--Capital reduction reduced ShareCapital by half so Stock should trade by Half
Fact--- When there is a Capital Reduction the number of shares also reduce and primarily a sharecapital is used when a company comes out of BIFR.

For example: Share Capital reduced by 10 to 1 so stock falls from 100 to 10. Here if you are holding 100 shares u will get only 10 shares and 90 shares will be reduced.

Another example: When the Face Value of share reduces from 10 to 5 one gets 2 shares for everyone share held so total shares double and price halves.

This is a different type of share reduction due to shiting of assets. Many of you would have got an headache but i will simplify it now.

Important Data to Understand.

See Provogue(standalone Business profit for fy12 around 35crs)------Pre Demerger
Profit remains same ----------------------------------------around 35crs) Post Demereger

Market Cap @34 (Day it went Demerger)-----------388crs-------------Pre Demerger
Market Cap @12-------------------------------------------138crs-------------Post Demerger

So one can do the maths
One Paid 10 times+ Price earnings Pre demerger
And now it trades @ 4 TIMES price earnings at rs12.

One could argue Prozone etc (adjusted value)but Prozone was an added prize.
So you say a Brand like Provogue trades @ 185crs marketcap
And an Cooker company Hawkings at 3000ccrs marketcap.

Provogue has to get it act to gether yet @185crs is Dirt Cheap.
Any PE INVESTORS reading please contact me i have a complete turnartound map for this co to trade at much superior levels.

Its Patience v/s Fear. And dear promoters have been buying in the range of 20-30predemerger @ at 15levels post demerger.

Market is Bad otherwise would have grapped it all in one go

We have bought Provogue with Added Conviction Post Demerger@12.3levels and intend to buyt more if it goes to 10 levels

Will come back soon as market stays down and i love distressed buys.
Good luck
Dont put all eggs in one basket.
Diversify across sectors and stocks and keep

UGLY DUCKLINGS $$$$$$$$$$$$ Delivered.

2012-02-13T09:03:00.001-08:00

UGLY DUCKLINGS $$$$$$$$$$$$ Delivered.

Check enroute post of November - http://rupeeneversleeps.blogspot.in/2011/10/enroute.html
This is what i wrote in November.
Im buying only UGLY STOCKS----Infra --Power...Realestate .

Refer to twitter updates to know our historic updates on the same. We have been biuying these 3 sectors from November to January.

We started Buying likes of gmr @ 26 all the way to lows of rs 18 -- Sold off all @27

Bought Ivrcl @ 52, @ 42 and @34 ----Sold half @ 52. Will continue holding rest

Bought Indiabulls Realestate (before demerger) @ 112 @ 72 and doubled the
position @ 61. Today standalone realestate is @ 74 (close to our cost). We continue holding as we still see value from 2yrs.
Indiabulls Infra & Power shares are literally free as of today.

Bought Gvk from Rs 22 all the way to Rs 10. At one point i thought i had caught the average physological bug. We are bullish on certain companies even though we sold off few. These are some of the names we kept buying.Not to forget the wrong call on lanco. We bought that too @ 10 and 12 levels. Our average cost on Lanco now stands at 18rs.

Today some sanity seems to have prevailed. Only reason the stocks have doubled is that they were sold to ridiculous levels. We doubled the positions at the right time (Luck had its way too i guess). I expected a sharp bounce but not in January itself.
We went overweight on Infra and now have been booking out of stocks which delivered huge gains. Our cost has effective come down and offers great comfort in this space after long.
A possible 20% correction is possible again in individual names in these sectors from recent highs.

We have shifted the money now to lower beta names with dividendyields of 4-6% which also cracked due to the whole market downfall. They offer a great risk return profile.

Im short on Nifty @ 5331 . I dont see a sharp downside for feb but the budget could be a game changer. Its good to hedge buy shorting or buying lower strike puts.

Cheers
Aditya

Indiabulls Realestate: Standalone Completley Distressed Valuation @rs61 (Add IBPOWER Yet to be demerged)

2011-11-21T09:00:00.000-08:00

Indiabulls Realestate: Standalone Completely Distressed Valuation @Rs61 (Power yet to be DEMERGED)

I feel humbled after a real long time to be honest. I got the direction on the Nifty right. First the bottom as well when i said that it was time to go hedge shorting the Nifty a few weeks back around 5400 levels.

Over the stocks i have written on the multiplex twins did well especially PVR which outperformed BIG FROM the entire lot From the lot we have sold Pvr. Provogue too was a compelling BUY@ 34 and reached 48 levels in less than 2 weeks.On the other side Edelweiss underformance is correlated to the global space. Whereas Lanco was a risky Buy only if one was ready to buy at lower levels.

Now my biggest disappointment (OR SHOULD I SAY or wait one more month??)
I would in no case write about a company if i was not pretty sure.
Whats gone wrong???????????????????
1)Indiabulls always had issues with corporate governance etc.Its known from 2 years and doest warrant an excess fall either..

The company is sitting on huge assets, negligible debt(in companion to assets and peers). Even if one assumes a billion dollars investment to develop them the cash flow over the years is going to be 7-8x current market Cap.

2) The Board of IBPower has approved the scheme of amalgamation of Indiabulls
Infrastructure Development Ltd (IIDL). This is going to drain Parent Indiabulls balance sheet by close to 1000odd crs. This one big news was not factored by me as was announced in q1 results.

Now lets see the positives
1)As of last quarter company owns 530 acres of residential space and 40 odd acres of commercial space.

2)Indiabulls acquired Bharat mills for Rs 1500crs and Podar mills for 474crs. Both the mills are adjacent and covers 11acres of prime land at Worli.
1)At base FSI of 1.33 at 50% loading the company could develop 7,20,000 square feet of saleable land at Bharat mills and around 2,00,000 square feet at Podar mills.This is the bare minimum the company would be able to develop.
While bidding the company had hope of a 4x parking linked fsi which would have yielded 2.9million square feet that is close to 2million square feet more.
As of December 2010 the parking linked fsi was scrapped.

Now if one does a back of hand calculation on around 1million square feet at around 24,000rs a sqft it comes to just 2400crs. Now if i deduct constructions costs of around 4000 a sq ft im left with net realisable 2000crs when investment on land was 2000ccrs. So net net i am just getting my principal loosing the time value of money.

3)Lets see IPIT The commercial assets of Indiabulls one at Lower parel the Elphiston and Jupiter mills land. Its is under a singapore trust. 45% owned by the parent listed Ib realestate. one can read in detail downloading the annual report from the sgx(singapore stock exchange).

As of q2 2012 the leased area stood at around 1.9million square feet. Indiabulls realestate is entitled to a commission on the same.

http://www.sgx.com/wps/portal/sgxweb/home/company_disclosure/all_in_one/company/!ut/p/c5/hZHJjqpAAEW_pT_AUCBQsKQYBIRSkHlDQJChGW0oha9_Lt-m0znLk5Pc5FIJ9WHISFNlSzMOWUdFVMKnjCSxOpCBCISTAAw1CGxF02nBAR8f_-cvPg2B4SOHRYFPnyX2jzqkIsCmt1aY7G2JrF0mXrvfgK3EAO_2hluVxqJyLQLXR5LsHPiXQ5lUUnVj_tkWFglyPdZ-aUaUbsNegTwYQ7MmWsjGYTWiVi8FrEjvb9NFkhqlJKZPx3vO0NcYXsuyjCyjY5jxvu6rchpu2dQHBbaXgnm3YKR1-MpQcYTcON2207N5Qn-8MPrx0u2wkOn8Z4Up7g2tj1oxoEkkLrI7-7wmDZ26Tb4h2aFpypZ5dFByLt5MndHDhJUnER6pRypu4Fpe5-7WhY91h7FUrlMug_2YzYpdNRfN8mrWTaTGS-JYZw-z47A3gu0VllMmNxn5d0XZqp4QFGt29pKwq9XS3YJVcZBX9uebYGIf0WuR3yLrWIe3yQXgnPd1MOeZlakR65lbk89D8riKfRUM8MFvM3-QcF87o_BFYX3sSyqmEvjbvzKC1NT7pBeMr39TWOPv/dl3/d3/L0lDU0lKSkthWUEhIS9JTlNBQ0lpTXdxSkFDQUpvb0dBIS80QzFiOVdfTnJ4UUMvN18yQUE0SDBDMDlPVTE3MElVQlE0QlZVMUNCNy8xODMxNzYyNTYxMzI!/?CompanyCombons_7_2AA4H0C09OU170IUBQ4BVU1CB7_=INDIABUL&CO_ALLONE_SELECTED_INDEX=435&CO_AllONE_CHART_RET_CODE=INDIABUL&CO_AllONE_STOCK_NAME=INDIABULLS+PROPERTIES+INVTRUST&CO_AllONE_IBM_CODE=1W91&CO_AllONE_HP_CODE=F3EU&CO_AllONE_MASTER_CODE=42033

4)Indiabulls has other projects in Panvel, Thane. I donot buy the expensive sqft rates at panvel just because of an airport. These are bound to correct.However even factoring 25-30% lower rates the co is trading at mispriced valuations

Adding all this this does not deserve to trade at a market cap of just 2400crs +1000crs debt +1 crs current liabilities (jump in q2 2011) so effective at a enterprise valuation of

wait.................................................

What got me to this stock?? Was the Power fizzled out????
Indiabulls Power demerger?-------------Sold out???????
see the demerger was approved earlier and each indiabulls realestate shareholder was to get 2.95 shares of Indiabulls Power ans Infra (holding co of Power)
1)Progress of power plant-------------------------good
2)PPA-------------------------------------------- Good
2)Coal------------------------------------------- Bad
Again i repeat this. Its got coal linkages and as per coal India if a company has fixed fuel agreement it is entitled to 90% fuel as per agreement. Coal india signed the last agreement in mid 2009.

Its atleast got solid power purchase agreements signes which is a positive. People talk about state electricity board looses xxx lac crs.
I should be bothered only about Maharshtra seb status as its linked to Ibpower.

Over the last 2 yrs coal india has been signing memorandum of understanding where it promises to deliver atleast 50 % of the requirement.

So where does this leave Indiabulls power
1)as i said earlier its got mittal backing with mines
2)i said this few months back----------
Indias got the world's largest coal reserves yet only 4% reserves are commercialy exploited.
enviournment clearances---------
our government is keen on helping companies with debt of rs 6000crs odd
by next yr many projects go on stream with more than 10billion$ on line (minimum)
does not make sense for many to import coal at 110$. So who will blink first.
I feel and could be very well be wrong that Coal India will get clearances to develop more mines.all power cos work on 70%debt 30% equity model.
NO COAL------NO POWER-----NO CASH FLOW-------NO REPAYMENT----BAD LOAN

holds true for all cos...............................................

In short on a stanalone realestate co you are getting
Indiabulls residential (ncr, panvel, chennai)
Indiabulls (Bharat mills and Podar mills)
Indiabulls IPIT Trust (Indiabulls one center)
Indiabulls Residential IPIT (Same trust) Indiabulls sky and forest

at 2400crs + 2000crs (debt inclusive of current liabilities)

What i like about this company is that it raised money for buying assets and minimum amount of debt in comparion to other players

========in addition-------------------------------------------Dark horse
Indiabulls Power

But even on a standalone basis even considering base fsi of 1.33 it would recover the invested money.(worst case)

In a weak market a stock held primarily with fiis is bound to take a beating. But it baffles me @ 61.Many stocks have corrected big time. So is it ok? Not in my opinion.

Its a matter of time for the demerger announcement.Hope i dont get it wrong.from this levels even it moves 50% will be a no profit/loss return but atleast would clear free capital.I continue to remain positive however the amalgamation announcement was a drag.

All was known and in my view the IPIT assets alone are worth more than todays stock price.

Enroute...

2011-10-27T20:21:00.000-07:00

As i wrote on the 12th of September
Dax was 5166------------Today 27th OCT : 6377 -----20% PLUS MOVE
CAC was 2894------------Today 27th OCT : 3368------15% odd MOVE
DOW was 11105-----------Today 27th OCT : 12208-----10% odd Move
Nifty 4940 expected to open around 5400 as per SGX..

Wow in close to a month On the move.. BANG ON.. so have i made money???? Not yet

Im buying only UGLY STOCKS----Infra --Power...Realestate
And they have not moved.

Today a lot of shortcovering gonna take place in next 10 minutes. Mainly financials and infrastructure.

If you are heavy on financials infra or realestate. 5400 level is an amazing hedge against the broader market. 5900 is gonna be a real strong resistance till RBI reverses its stand on interest rates.

Look at individual stocks. Index on Nifty is really deceptive.
5400-5900 is just a 10% move for index
Fair value of many stocks are like 50-100% on a relative basis.

Once its setlles above 5400 im sure one shall see a20-30% minimum upmove across the board.

perfect time to hedge as if A Moves---10% and B falls 10% the differential is 20%
A= index
B= stock

Its UGLY TIMES UGLY.

In times of PANIC, GREED this small printout would help for sure.

2011-09-20T04:48:00.000-07:00

Why One trade's like a Loser: its an old article written by Cullen Roche in 2009. Perfectly written and worth a read.

In times of PANIC, GREED this small printout would help for sure.

There was a great article in the Sydney Morning Herald on trading and why most traders lose money. Regular readers know that I focus a lot of time and energy on understanding not only the psychology behind my own trading, but also the psychology of other traders. General Patton once said: “if everyone is thinking the same then someone isn’t thinking”. These words are never more applicable than they are to markets. After all, the name of the game, more often than not, is being in the trade before anyone else expects it. Markets rarely move where the majority of investors expect them to move. The article broke down the reasons for losing into 7 different common emotional mistakes:

1. Emotional bias: the tendency to believe the things that make you feel good and to disregard things that make you feel bad. In trading terms, this means ignoring the bad news and focusing on the good news. It’s called losing objectivity; you don’t recognise when things go wrong because you don’t want to.

This is the primary reason why most traders lose money. I believe it is mostly due to the fact that the majority of investors are generally biased in their thinking. They are trained to believe that buying stocks is the best way to invest in a market. They therefore ignore the other side of trades or other asset classes. This bias generally leads to a permabull perspective (or a permabear perspective for the more pessimistic). The general optimism of most traders (or pessimism) leads to cloudy thinking. Learning to be unbiased and flexible are perhaps the two most important rules to becoming a good trader. Trading one asset class with one directional bias would be like a professional baseball pitcher deciding to throw nothing but fastballs. You have many options and pitches – utilize them all.

2. Expectation bias: the tendency to believe in things that you expect. In financial terms this means not bothering to analyse, test, measure or doubt the conclusion you expect or hope for. It is also known as the law of small numbers – believing in something with little real evidence.

Focusing too much on the macro picture can often lead to this kind of skewed thinking. Peter Schiff is a great example. His macro inflationary theme is likely to be correct over the long-term, but in the near-term he has cost himself and his investors a great deal of money by not being more flexible and being able to adjust to the micro changes in the economy. I expect this current bear market to persist much longer, but that hasn’t stopped me from being bullish at times during the last 18 months. The market is a dynamic system and is constantly changing. Learn to evolve and change with it.

3. The disposition effect: the tendency to cut your profits and let your losses run – the opposite of what a trader should be doing. Making small profits and big losses is a recipe for disaster.

This is almost entirely due to a lack of discipline. All investors should have rules. Have price targets and set stops. Learn to be robotic in your investing style. If you give your emotions the opportunity to get in the way of your trading I can guarantee you they will. Hope is not a strategy when a trade doesn’t go the way you planned. One of the best parts about the stock market is that polygamy is perfectly acceptable. You aren’t married to any single position. Learn to “dump” the losers and move on to the next trade.

4. Loss aversion: the tendency to value the avoidance of loss more highly than the making of gain. Losses impact on you more than gains. Because of this you become more emotional when making losses, the point at which a rational decision would save you the most money.

The math behind stock market losses is unfortunate, but real. A 50% loss requires a staggering 100% gain to break even. This is one of the reasons why my focus is so keenly on risk management and money management. I have never experienced a draw-down of more than 15% in any given quarterly period because my risk management is superb. There are two kinds of volatility in the investment world: upside vol (good vol) and downside vol (bad vol). Finding investment managers with high Sortino ratios, i.e., very little bad vol, is very rare. The moral here is to learn asset allocation and the interconnectedness of non-correlated assets and you can in fact create portfolios that are structured to generate high risk adjusted returns while also being nearly invulnerable to black swans.

5. The sunk-cost fallacy: this is the tendency for our decision-making to be influenced by the size of the loss we have already incurred. The bigger the loss, the more likely we are to persist with a losing trade rather than take the rational decision to cut to a more profitable trade. The size of your loss has no impact on the future share price but a huge impact on your ability to make the right decision.

Position sizing is the most important form of risk management. If you invest your entire portfolio in a handful of high beta stocks you have to be willing to lose an extraordinary amount of money. Regular readers have likely noticed that I have a very patient “lie in the tall grass” investment style. I often wait for fat pitches, but never ever over allocate funds – even when I feel very certain about a trade. I always respect the fact that I can and will be wrong at times. Position sizing ensures that no single position can destroy years of hard work. Learning to allocate capital across a number of assets while creating a black swan proof portfolio is all about position sizing. Nassim Taleb wants you to believe that it’s impossible to avoid black swans (which is true), but black swans don’t have to be destructive as Taleb would have you believe.

6. The bandwagon effect: the tendency to think it must be right because everyone else is doing it – a thought process guaranteed to get you in when it’s obvious and get you out when it’s obvious. Put another way, it has you buying at the top and selling at the bottom.

As I said earlier, when everyone is thinking the same, someone isn’t thinking. Learn to go against the crowd. And when the boat feels like it’s tipping to one side, jump off or consider moving to the other side. And never let anyone tell you cash isn’t a position. If you feel uncertain or uncomfortable pull your portfolio out of the game. Like blackjack, there is no rule that says you have to play every hand. For more sophisticated investors cash can also serve as an alternative asset class via currency markets.

7. Past-price fixation: the tendency to avoid prudent trading decisions by anchoring your thought process to prices that no longer exist. “I’ll sell it if it gets back to $4.” “I’ll buy it if it gets down to $4 again.” We are all guilty. In trend-following trading, if the price goes up, you don’t sell it, you buy it; if it goes down, you don’t buy it, you sell it. The old high has gone, the old low has gone. Don’t wait for them to come back to do the wrong thing.

This goes back to being disciplined. You’re going to lose money. Deal with it. The real goal of trading is to make sure your losers don’t mortally wound your portfolio. Aim for singles and doubles and focus on not striking out. While home runs are exciting and the idea of finding the next Microsoft is grand and all the reality of it is that you’re highly unlikely to do either.

Beginning of a new Crisis or an End to the 2year issue??Which route to take??

2011-09-13T18:32:00.000-07:00

Beginning of a new Crisis or an End to the 2year issue??Which route to take??
As i write the entire world is in a state of unknowns what will happen next. US recession, AAA downgrades, European Debt Crisis, Gold Bubble etc.
Date:14th September 2011
Dax: 5166
Cac: 2894
Dow: 11105
Nifty: 4940

First and Foremost the sell off seen in the last 1-2 months was on account of the European debt and not in any way on account of a possible slowdown in the United States. Of course US will get hit if the issue in Europe goes out of control. . Even the S&P AAA downgrade fall was accentuated due to a sell off in Europe.

So the main Issue remains in Europe. We know about it from the last two years.
So can it get ugly?? Yes it is....But is it Manageable?? Yes A BIG YES....
At the heart of the issue lies Greece. Its a beautiful place having a debt of around 285 billion Euro and a population of 11 million (1.1crore)
French and German banks hold a size able chunk in Greek bonds and they have to be written of to the realisable value. If you go to see the Cac and the Dax you would notice that these banks have taken the hardest hit. On one hand a section of the stocks are trading at 2Year lows , prices closer to the post Lehman crisis. On the other hand there are other stocks which are trading closer to all time highs as well (Adidas :hit a high of 57euro on 15th july 2011)

What can be a possible solution??
1) Pure Bailout
2) Let Greek default
3)Euro bonds

A pure Bailout seems to be the best possible solution. Finland whose contribution was a mere 2% shook things up last week.
See France and Germany for once cant be too easy in dishing out capital to Greece otherwise tomorrow one shall find Portugal ,Italy and Spain at their doorsteps. If Greece wants a Airbus business jet make them settle for a Falcon2000.
Greece can be bailed out easily. Pros v/s Con of Bailing remain a debate internally.

Another possibility is to let Greece default. The way bond prices are moving, chances of a Greek default are possible. France has even acknowledged that its banks are ready to face the consequences.

The third option of Breaking up Europe and issue of Euro bonds seem very grim. If that were to happen it would raise Frances' interest costs by over 40billion a year. More logical to save the enemy today.

So where does all this leave India?? I continue to say that we are in a Bear market from last year (esp looking at small and mid cap valuations). Inflation is a big issue affecting us and that can change if oil prices correct further. Its heads i win, Tails i don't loose much as per Dhandao.
India consumes close to 3 million barrels of oil per day and if oil corrects 10% translates to a savings of 47,000Cr's+.

Best money (multifold 3x -4x) can be made in smaller cos with a Market cap of 100-2000Cr's for next 2Years.

Risks are known unlike Lehman so in my view this Greek animal can be tamed or killed. Depends on France and Germany. They wont screw greece if they get screwed themselves. A Possible solution will lead to fresh liquidity chasing the markets and in all likelihood 20% upside in case of a pure bailout. A managed default is priced in the CAC & DAX as of today.

Lanco Infratech: Strong Buy at Rs 23: Risk Reward in Favour of Buyer

2011-07-14T09:10:00.000-07:00

Updates : Read after considering Note below

1) We have got this Stock Wrong. ----- So Please read it that way
2) As of June 2012 our Average Price stands at Rs 18
3) I Intend to look at this stock only after a year so did not even sell at recent high @24

Lanco Infratech Strong Buy @ 23: Risk Reward Tilted in favour of the Buyer

Always Inspiring??? NEW ADS!!!!!!! Not so for the existing Shareholders But definitely for Potential Ones

It offers a Mispriced Bet hence i am Back.Those averse to Risk buy post 18th July 2011 when some more clarity emerges

Events Affecting fall in 2011The reason for the fall from Rs60-40 in early 2011 was primarily attributed to coal availability and merchant power prices.
The slip from 30-25 was when the market corrcted towards 5200 levels and the Griffin NEWS affected the price whereas many cos recovered 20-30% since the fall.

With Regard to Merchant Prices they should stabalise above 4rs and last quarters Rs4.5 by Lanco was encouraging.

With Today's announcemnt of defeciet in Monsoons, merchant tariffs are expected to stay firm.

Griffin Case of Rs16000 odd crs----------- In my view Case is weak esp from whatever i have heard read in the Indian and Australian Media.

Note: Griffin was Bankrupt Co and was bought from the authorities for a consideraition of about 900mn$

This is the Main and only worry in sight and do check the capcity added and to be added by the company from 2009-2014.

Its got a portfolio of close to 3000+MW and 4500MW under execution (details will be added after a while)

EXECUTION HAS BEEN GREAT OVER THE LAST FEW YEARS

U are sitting on Potential doubler, however people who can take risk -Its a strong Buy. It could very well go lower but Risk Reward is 75% for the Buyer

Indiabulls Power Demerger: Great Value unlock for Indiabulls Realestate Shareholders

2011-06-16T10:24:00.000-07:00

Read the following article link below.

The article was written Pre-demerger followed by a Detailed article even @ 60

Latest Update on indiabulls realestate:

http://rupeeneversleeps.blogspot.com/2011/11/indiabulls-realestate-standalone.html

Main Update: On top of the page

Latest update written this months. Dont want to add it here as it mixes it

Additional info:
1)court has convened a date in October for the final hearing.
2)Final record date by December
3)Entire market has drageed stock further lower. continues to remain in deep value zone.Stick to my earlier views on a combined marketcap.
(sorry for ignoring final hearing updates earlier on the site) All info to be read in prospect to Record date which increased timeframe by few months.
value:Remains and increased with fall in prices)

Indiabulls Power Demerger: Great Value unlocked for existing shareholders

Strong BUY @ 112.75::: Downside Limited. Upside: More than 20% in a month by the Record Date

Indiabulls Realestate
Price : Rs 112.75
Market Cap:Rs 4500 Crs

Indiabulls Power:
Price :18.85
Market Cap:3,800 Crs

Whats the BIG Deal????????
1) Existing shareholders are going to get 2.95 shares of Indiabulls Infrastructure and Power Limited. Indiabulls Realestate currently owns 118.5 Crs shares of Indiabulls Power which will subsequently demerged to existing share holders on Record Date

Shareholders Meet on :30th June.2011
Record date to identify shareholders :Mid July around 15-20th July 2011

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WHAT MAKES ITS A BUY @ 112.75?????

1) You may have noticed i hardly write on the blog anylonger due to lack of time and am always back for a mispriced bet.

Indiabulls Realestate offers a mispriced bet primarily on account of Demerger of Indiabulls Power. I see a minimum 20% return till the record date or will be happy taking home only Free shares of Indiabulls Power.

Confused??
Let me show 3 examples as on Record Date

1) Indiabulls Realestae on Demerger : Rs 112
Indiabulls Power & Infra : Rs 50 (Assuming 20Rs a share for IB power and 20% discount=2.95*20rs- 18-20% discount holding company)

So effective value 62rs for indiabulls realestate::::::::::::::Got it wrong::::
Assuming 40rs for indiabulls power :::::72::::::::::::::::::::Got it wrong::::

Whats my calcualtion???
I am not elaborating much on Indiabulls Realestate and Indiabulls Power as it shall take me an hour to detail each and every aspect.

I would consider 80-90 Rs a Base Case Value for Indiabulls Realestate (stanadlone) Considering its Land Bank, Debt on Books and Historic Valuations over lat 3-4 years (Even Today considering entire Realestate Sector Has been literally shaken.

Now add IndiaBulls Power value of 59rs as of today::::comes to ==(80+59)= Rs 139
View 1 ==(90+59)= Rs 149

View 2: Valuing Indiabulls Power stake @ 18-20% Discount===(80+50)= Rs 129
This is the pricei expect around the record date ===(90+50)= Rs 139

THE VALUATIONS ARE ON A BASE CASE SCENARIO AND NOTT FACTORING IN ANY GROWTH.

Now if i mention a fact:
As on Record Date a shareholder will be entitled to shares of Indiabulls Infr& Power LTd and not the listed entity (Indiabulls Power:Rs18.85) Hence factoring a holding company dicount.

But these shares shall eventually be merged with Indiabulls Power and each shareholder will be entitled to 1 share of IndiaBulls Power.

Important Note:
1) Indiabulls Realesate has a good land bank and its consolidated debt shall improve aswell as it consits of loans of Indiabulls power as of today. And on a stanadlone entity should be valued much more than 80rs on a base case scenario.

2)Indiabulls Power: No one is bothered to value this co and shall give good returns in next 2 years. The power plants are doing good progress. It will stay subdued till the demerger according to me.

It offers a good Risk Reward at current Price of Rs 112.75.

A THOUGHT
JUST IMAGINE you bought Indiabulls Power at IPO OF rS45---TODAY YOU ARE GETTING indiabulls power(valued at ipo(45*2.95=132) entire stanadlone realestate company free.

Once the promoters will merge the listed company Indiabulls Power AND iNDIABULLS INFRA&POWER that holding company discount will also diminish

ONE SHALL MAKE MINIMUM 100% Return on both these companies over next 12-18 months

PLEASE DO STUDY THE COMPANY BEFORE MAKING AN INVESTMENT

PVR: Compelling Buy -Some Opportunities Hard to Miss

2011-03-21T10:19:00.000-07:00

PVR a Compelling Buy @ 93 - Some Opportunities Should Not be Missed

Price: Rs 93.5

Market Cap: Rs 250 Crs

Debt: Rs 180 Crs

Enterprise Value: Rs 430 Crs

Only owned Property at Phoenix Mills: Company is trying to sell it for over Rs100 Crs to Fund expansion going ahead.

No of Screens Currentlly: 142

Add for FY2012 : around 60 odd screens

Why is it a Buy???????????????????????????

1) Strong Brand -No Doubt Established among the top multiplex spaces. I alaways prefered Inox to PVR(Had suggested to buy Inox in a staggered way at Rs 50). But the recent correction in the last week made me thing again. Both are Buys @ Current levels of Rs 47 for inox and Rs93 for PVR.

2) Aggressive expansion: As per PVR they tend to add 60-80 screens by March 2012. Currently PVR has 142 screens so it takes the tally to around 200 screens.

3) PVR is expected to generate EBIDTA of about 100 Crs for FY12 AND if we consider 20-25 Crs as Interest payments 75 -80 Crs is left. I am not looking at the PAT because depriciation expenses are higher and do not reflect the true picture.

Value + Margin of Safety

I donot write as much as i had intented to do when i set up the blog but whenever a mispriced opportunity exist would be back.

1) For whatever reason Today we have PVR @ RS 250 ODD Crs Market Cap whereas a competitor is trading at the same Value of Rs 240 Crs :refering to Fame India (open offer takeover dont bother see the hidden value of PVR as a stanalone entity.

Indias top Multiplex at the same value as compared to a company which is not even half its size

Opporunities like these rarely come;and should be utilised to Make $$$$$.

Buy and hold for a year:Double your money.

Buying at the Right Price is the Most important thing

PVR Offers a great risk reward ration at these levels. For Inox refer previous article. CU At the movies Good luck

Aditya

Rcom: Solid Value Emerging @ Rs93 Assets Remain

2011-02-18T06:33:00.000-08:00

Reliance Communications: If Rcom is Finished Anil Ambani is as good as Gone. Out and Over....

Caution is Advised : If you feel Anil Ambani is Over No Point Reading. I believe the financial numbers he reports on the stock exchanges.

Not a time to panic atleast..
Market Cap :19,200 Crs
Net Debt :32,000 Crs
Enterprise Value :51,000 Crs

Its His Flagship Company. Flagship Company of the Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group. No Doubt Higly Leveraged Company but Recent Drop a Excess.

@ Current Price of 93
Anil Ambani's Stake in Company:::::: Rs 13,000 Crs
Mutual Funds @:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::Rs186 Crs
Financial Institutions:::::::::::::::::::::::Rs 50 Crs
Insurance Companies:::::::::::::::::::::::Rs 1529 Crs
Foriengn Investors:::::::::::::::::::::::::: Rs1616 Crs
Bodies Corporate::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::Rs428 Crs

Individual Investors:::::Rs1971 Crs(Highest after ADA) 20.6 lac investors
HNI's:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::Rs161 Crs

U think Anil Ambani does not Have Rs 6000 Crs to buy out the remaining investors.
Just Google his $825 Million Investments with Steven Spielberg.
None of his shares are pledged. He can very well pledge it..
Its not so easy to Buy it out. More frenzy Bad news. He will Continue to buy.. He added 70+lac shares over the last week but that just Rs 70 crs odd. He will buy that what i would have done.

Lets Discuss His Overleveraged Debt For Once...
Net Debt for last 4 quarters.
Q3 2011:::::::Rs 32,447 Crs Adjusted for that : 30,685 Crs
Q2 2011:::::::Rs 29,190 Crs (Payment of Rs 1750 Crs was made for Liabilities in Q2)
Q1 2011 ::;::: Rs 28,481 Crs (Increase due to 3G Liscense fee)
Q4 2010::::::::Rs 19,983 Crs

All people going gung ho Debt and reducing target. Reduce it before Price Action . Cant Justify it post results..Even though many have kept EBIDTA projections the blame the Debt for steep cut in estimates. Utter sorrow for those.

OK Operationally was not a good quarter atall.Minutes of usage fell on a strong quarter. On first glance i got scared seeing the results itself..

On the conferance call heard him talk bout reduction in PCO Minutes to free up spectrum????? They already have so much excess unutilized network.. Tough to digest this fact.Lets see but feel it will be stable around these levels

I have a very good suggestion for Mr Ambani Launch BIG Telecom for GSM (NO HIGH END SUBSRIBERS CHOOSING RCOM).

If Rcom had not bid for 3G Debt would have been lower by 8,500 Crs Minimum)
Was It a Wrong Desicion No
It could not let another competitor Jump Fray and it needed spectrum atleast fors Delhi.

I would love to go on a Debate on this that 2g caused losses on 3G PRICES basis.
1st it was awarded in a wrong way but wake up People

Who was Going to Bid at 3G PRICES. GIVE THE REAL REASON THAT IT WAS A HOGWASH TO BUY AND SELL spectrum TO FORIGN TELCOS WITHOUT EVEN ROLLING SERVICES;for some favoured people which was very well know by each and every person.Please read news papers archives to understand

The stock has fallen to such levels that even if all the following conditions below have been factored in.
1)Anil Ambani Going Down Under.
I keep asking myself what is wrong with the country.
Each and everyone in the Know how of Spectrum knew about the misdoings of former telecom minister A Raja. How the liscenses got awarded. To top it up everyone knew about Reliance's investments in Swan. AND WIPING OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF A COMPANY ON NEWS of BRIBES OF rs 200 crs were paid.. hahahahahahaha LOOK AT THE RATIO..

if real figures come out.each and every stock listed on the stock exchange can be bought with that amount.

One thing i cant understand when the liscenses were awarded BJP did not demand a standstill???????????????????????????????????Atleast when they were being sold? I atleast cant believe PM Dint have a clue. When you have deals worth billions of dollars taking place. We are not United States of America that we dont care for deal values which took place post allotment. It figured as a % of our forex reserves.

Anil Ambani is not the same he Used to be(in terms of power and control)..

However his companies have taken a further beating
On a consesus estimate Rcom is going to earn between 7000-7500 Crs EBIDTA for fy12& FY13..

Take the figure @ 7000 Crs ebita take 3000 crs interest rough estimate(yet to refinance 1.3 billion$) from China awaiting that.
Not taking any taxation figure and limited Capex @ 1000 crs
He will be able to pay close to 5,000 Crs of Debt over 2 years which would bring the net devt to around 26000 cRs It is not easy to understand the exact cost of capital(big -ve) Going to be long but think once from the promoter angle aswell

But thats going to be long time .....................................................

So what Options does he have?????
He will end up selling some assets..Possible
Pros/v/s cons of extra 8500 Crs for 3g
Or a Stake in the company:::::::All likelyhood to his brother for his rollout

But if he sells that will not be below 200 Rs a share(100% from here)
Mukesh Ambani needs his infrastructure... BUT HOW WILL IT BE STRUCTURED????????

Calculate
3G spectrum
2g spectrum
Passive Infrastructure
Flag Telecom
Big dth & Other Rworld stores..the property value

On a conservative basis that would stand @ atleast Rs 200 a share factoring a DEBT OF OVER Rs 30000 cRS .(i.e)@ Enterprise value of 75,000 cRS..

Story is Going to unfold sooner or later.
I feel 2011 is going to be the year.

i Would advise him to demerge his companies and sell a stake in the passive infrastructure biz to Big brother Mukesh Ambani...

His debt would get rationalized and his company would get leaner to taken on his competition in a ruthless manner.

Aditya

Edelweiss: @ 38.5 Holds Great Potential Over the Next 3-5 Years

2011-02-14T15:03:00.000-08:00

Edelweiss Capital : Its Like WINE (as it gets older will Taste better)

Price---Rs38.5

Market Cap------Rs 2900 Crs

Whats the logic?

Lets come to all the negatives first.

1)Amazing company came at the peak of the stock market boom. ENJOYED hefty valuations. Ipo money nicely gobbled up.

I will agree with you...See IPO was @ 725-825 and shares were issued @ 825...(adjusted to split @nd bonus = Rs 82.5).... The Price never came....

BUT SEE IF IT PERFORMED?????

I Would like to compare the Profits

2008-----------Rs273 Crs

2009-------Rs186 Crs

2010----------Rs229 Crs

2011Expected--------Rs245-250 Crs

The thing is when the company came with IPO @ Rs82.5(adjusted price)

market cap stood @ 6200 odd Crs with it opening around 120 (adjusted) market cap 9000 crs.

2things to note-edelweiss profits were growing y-oy at a scorching speed and it enjoyed high ROE'S above 20pc, which have since fallen to 10-12pc

Now Y early morning do i write about it?? Because i feel it could very well be the wine 5-10years down the line

1)Edel now derives a huge chunk from Interest income. (Between 50-60crs net interest income from last 4 quarters.

2) It looks that it is trying to shift to a stable alternative with regard to lending..

3)Look at signs for future growth..

Hiring of Bank of America Indian CFO : RINGING FEW MORE BELLS OVER STRONG BANKING BUZZ DOING THE ROUNDS

4)The Insurance rollout; the NBFC plan to disburse 5000 odd crs..

I see a lot of Visibility but will it translate. I feel it would. Even by 50pc execution is done. u count see the stock 3x from here above RS100 in a couple of years.

If it gets a Banking license it would add up close to 1000crs market cap on that day itself.

If India is to grow 8 or 9 or 10% savings will grow and will be channelised in coming few years. It will be among the top beneficiaries of this in coming few years. Its got a great team. Fairly valued @15x in this beaten down market.

A big surprise which no one would have payed heed to Lehman bros 1 cr shares in company have in all likelihood been sold in the December quarter(no disclosures on the exchange thought)

Note to all readers:

I have VESTED interests on the stocks i write on.

Don't invest more than 5pc of your total corpus on any of the stocks

Do your study before investing.

If you believe India will grow 9% BUY the stock..... STAGGER YOUR INVESTMENTS OVER A MONTH...........................................................

One more thing in India it is all about (PE). stocks often move on PE derating and rerating...........

@ current pat of 250 crs traing at 11.6 times. In a good market so called bull market would trade @ 20 PE DIRECTLY YOUR PRICE GOES TO 70.....btw goldman sachs trades @ 12 times that monster cant grow that big but this has low base greater chances of growth if visibility is there for me

for this company has to be good...growth should be there..and atleast main profit of 250crs 3 years down the line...so chances of loosing are less...

A good quality stock.......................Play on India's Financials..

Good Luck Keep Minting.....................................CU SOON WITH ANOTHER DETAILED IDEA

Aditya

Provogue a Compelling Buy @ Rs34 (Adjust it for Demerger)

2011-02-10T17:03:00.000-08:00

EDITed: Should be Adjusted for Demerger of Prozone. and Read Latest Updates As of May and July

Why Provogue?--------------Provogue = (Provogue +Prozone)
What am i paying for the company (Rs 34.5) Market Cap of Rs 400 Crs- Debt - Rs 400 Crores

In 2 lines you shall understand the worth of the company

Stanalone Provogue is expected to generate PAT Of Rs 36 crs in 2011 & Rs 40+ crores in 2012.

Now as the Market is corrected the stanadlone PE STANDS AT 10. Where as in a Bull market quotes at a PE Of 20+.

So on a stanalone Basis it is cheap.......SO Are many other companies. What made me write @ 6 am.. There is [PROZONE) Which i have not factored atall.

Let me write a little about PROZONE (as per Deal in Jan 2011 @ 850 ++Crores I.e over Rs 70 a share ). Provogue owns 75% stake in Prozone valued over 650 crores.

The aurangabad Mall is already operational and other are going to operation in Feb/ March 2011 (Q4 2011)

SO let me value it on a worst case basis @ that also comes above 50rs

Calculate a fair value (BEAR CAse )-------Mark faber big BEAR OWNS OVER 10% IN company

Provogue :10x PE fy 2012 ------Rs 35-38 a share

Prozone Value 50 odd % discount to deal ---- Rs 30 a share

That makes it close to Rs 70 a share......

Now same if i reverse to a moderte situation like 6 months down the line

Provogue :15x PE --------- rs 50+ share stanalone

Prozone Value ------------ Rs 40 + a share

Rs 90 + a share

Risks already into the price include instability in the Realestate market but look @ the Prozone model.It is different from resedintial and commercial model.

Strong partners ::::::::Liberty International..........

Very little to loose...@ Rs 34 odd. Strong BUY......... Hold for a year shall double your money if market doest crack. Risk Reward is Favouarble. Its always about the price you pay..

Good Luck............. kEEP mINting..................................CU ALL SOON with another Detailed Idea.

Do share Your views too. Saw so many hits for Inox tooo. Do share your opinion as well...

Aditya

Inox: Great buy @ Rs 50

2011-02-07T14:12:00.000-08:00

WHY INOX in the First place?

Inox with 144 screens having a seating capacity of 40,140 is the largest multiplex operator in the country post the acquistion of Fame India. It holds around 50.3% stake in Fame making it a subsidary post the closure of the open offer in January.

Lets Directly come to the Valuations for the company. Is it Cheap or Fairly valued?

Inox Data .................... Im adding the data for its Subsidary Fame too
No of Shares : 6.19 Crs ................. No of Shares : 3.49 Crs
Market Cap : 310 Crs: ................... MCAP @ Rs 55 : 192 Crs
Enterprise Value : 440 Crs ........MCAP @ Rs Reliance Media Open offer : 290 Crs
50.3% Fame Value : 96 Crs ........ Enterprise Value @ Open offer (Apprx): 377 Crs

One more Safety net Owns the Nariman Point Property (easily worth above : Rs 100 cRs)
& the Pune property : all other properties are leased

Let me add Inox added debt to fund this acquistion to fund the deal (Total Debt: 180 crs).

There is value on a standalone basis with sales growing from
2007------- 162 Crs
2008----------217 Crs
2009----------- 228 Crs
2010---------------256 Crs
and will well post sales above Rs 350 Crores for FY 2011.

oN The Margin front thE mArgins have fallen over the period from 34% in 2007 to 15 odd% in 2010. This would increase going forward as economies of scale improve further and could be considering as a bottom.

The company is going to be paying depriciation to the tune of of Rs 18 crores for 2010 hence i value it on an EBIDTA - efecctive EBIDTA of minimum 50 crs for 2010.

I have not written anything on Fame yet which would be consolidated in the numbers going forward. Fame operation performance is pathethic and would gradually improve with Inox in charge.

Now we have the isusue why Inox? Pvr, Cinemax Reliance Media.?

Pvr is the only logical company to think as with regard to the growth and balance sheet strenght is almost similiar. Reliance Media has lot of debt so better to stay away

BUT A BIG BUT (INOX=PVR); Now its is INOX+FAME SO CLEAR WINNER IS INOX

there is going to be alot of Cricket activity going around So you can BUY IT Gradually too. BUT THERE IS value. UP to you decide.

Good Luck keep Minting.............................................................C U ALL AROUND WITH DETAILED IDEAS IN COMING few days....

Do share your veiws...

Aditya

A BIGG Welcome to one and all...

2011-02-07T13:23:00.000-08:00

Hi I Have come across various people and most of them have ended up loosing money on the stock market. I shall share my veiws on this new blog i set today on the 8th of February 2011 and try to enable all of you to take a calculated veiw.

I shall update the reasons to buy the same and would try to update it frequently.

Three Important Things to remember while investing.

1)If You are investing please dont get carried away with the markets.(Stick to your purchase prices and set the price target for your purchase)

2)The biggest thing of all dont look @ stock prices. Look at the value of the business. Look at the MARKET CAP (Thats the value you are paying for the company)Most important thing to look at. Please check the Debt and if the Debt is relatively higher value it on Enterprise Value (Market Cap + Debt - Cash).

3)Buy at the Right price. If you buy a great business cheap you can get out at a multiple of 2x or 3x even when the stock is cheap.
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In times of PANIC, GREED this small printout would help for sure.

There was a great article in the Sydney Morning Herald on trading and why most traders lose money. Regular readers know that I focus a lot of time and energy on understanding not only the psychology behind my own trading, but also the psychology of other traders. General Patton once said: “if everyone is thinking the same then someone isn’t thinking”. These words are never more applicable than they are to markets. After all, the name of the game, more often than not, is being in the trade before anyone else expects it. Markets rarely move where the majority of investors expect them to move. The article broke down the reasons for losing into 7 different common emotional mistakes:

1. Emotional bias: the tendency to believe the things that make you feel good and to disregard things that make you feel bad. In trading terms, this means ignoring the bad news and focusing on the good news. It’s called losing objectivity; you don’t recognise when things go wrong because you don’t want to.

This is the primary reason why most traders lose money. I believe it is mostly due to the fact that the majority of investors are generally biased in their thinking. They are trained to believe that buying stocks is the best way to invest in a market. They therefore ignore the other side of trades or other asset classes. This bias generally leads to a permabull perspective (or a permabear perspective for the more pessimistic). The general optimism of most traders (or pessimism) leads to cloudy thinking. Learning to be unbiased and flexible are perhaps the two most important rules to becoming a good trader. Trading one asset class with one directional bias would be like a professional baseball pitcher deciding to throw nothing but fastballs. You have many options and pitches – utilize them all.

2. Expectation bias: the tendency to believe in things that you expect. In financial terms this means not bothering to analyse, test, measure or doubt the conclusion you expect or hope for. It is also known as the law of small numbers – believing in something with little real evidence.

Focusing too much on the macro picture can often lead to this kind of skewed thinking. Peter Schiff is a great example. His macro inflationary theme is likely to be correct over the long-term, but in the near-term he has cost himself and his investors a great deal of money by not being more flexible and being able to adjust to the micro changes in the economy. I expect this current bear market to persist much longer, but that hasn’t stopped me from being bullish at times during the last 18 months. The market is a dynamic system and is constantly changing. Learn to evolve and change with it.

3. The disposition effect: the tendency to cut your profits and let your losses run – the opposite of what a trader should be doing. Making small profits and big losses is a recipe for disaster.

This is almost entirely due to a lack of discipline. All investors should have rules. Have price targets and set stops. Learn to be robotic in your investing style. If you give your emotions the opportunity to get in the way of your trading I can guarantee you they will. Hope is not a strategy when a trade doesn’t go the way you planned. One of the best parts about the stock market is that polygamy is perfectly acceptable. You aren’t married to any single position. Learn to “dump” the losers and move on to the next trade.

4. Loss aversion: the tendency to value the avoidance of loss more highly than the making of gain. Losses impact on you more than gains. Because of this you become more emotional when making losses, the point at which a rational decision would save you the most money.

The math behind stock market losses is unfortunate, but real. A 50% loss requires a staggering 100% gain to break even. This is one of the reasons why my focus is so keenly on risk management and money management. I have never experienced a draw-down of more than 15% in any given quarterly period because my risk management is superb. There are two kinds of volatility in the investment world: upside vol (good vol) and downside vol (bad vol). Finding investment managers with high Sortino ratios, i.e., very little bad vol, is very rare. The moral here is to learn asset allocation and the interconnectedness of non-correlated assets and you can in fact create portfolios that are structured to generate high risk adjusted returns while also being nearly invulnerable to black swans.

5. The sunk-cost fallacy: this is the tendency for our decision-making to be influenced by the size of the loss we have already incurred. The bigger the loss, the more likely we are to persist with a losing trade rather than take the rational decision to cut to a more profitable trade. The size of your loss has no impact on the future share price but a huge impact on your ability to make the right decision.

Position sizing is the most important form of risk management. If you invest your entire portfolio in a handful of high beta stocks you have to be willing to lose an extraordinary amount of money. Regular readers have likely noticed that I have a very patient “lie in the tall grass” investment style. I often wait for fat pitches, but never ever over allocate funds – even when I feel very certain about a trade. I always respect the fact that I can and will be wrong at times. Position sizing ensures that no single position can destroy years of hard work. Learning to allocate capital across a number of assets while creating a black swan proof portfolio is all about position sizing. Nassim Taleb wants you to believe that it’s impossible to avoid black swans (which is true), but black swans don’t have to be destructive as Taleb would have you believe.

6. The bandwagon effect: the tendency to think it must be right because everyone else is doing it – a thought process guaranteed to get you in when it’s obvious and get you out when it’s obvious. Put another way, it has you buying at the top and selling at the bottom.

As I said earlier, when everyone is thinking the same, someone isn’t thinking. Learn to go against the crowd. And when the boat feels like it’s tipping to one side, jump off or consider moving to the other side. And never let anyone tell you cash isn’t a position. If you feel uncertain or uncomfortable pull your portfolio out of the game. Like blackjack, there is no rule that says you have to play every hand. For more sophisticated investors cash can also serve as an alternative asset class via currency markets.

7. Past-price fixation: the tendency to avoid prudent trading decisions by anchoring your thought process to prices that no longer exist. “I’ll sell it if it gets back to $4.” “I’ll buy it if it gets down to $4 again.” We are all guilty. In trend-following trading, if the price goes up, you don’t sell it, you buy it; if it goes down, you don’t buy it, you sell it. The old high has gone, the old low has gone. Don’t wait for them to come back to do the wrong thing.

This goes back to being disciplined. You’re going to lose money. Deal with it. The real goal of trading is to make sure your losers don’t mortally wound your portfolio. Aim for singles and doubles and focus on not striking out. While home runs are exciting and the idea of finding the next Microsoft is grand and all the reality of it is that you’re highly unlikely to do either.

Aditya